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Heath Cummings' Dynasty Tiers: Position-by-Position Breakdown! (1/24 Fantasy Football Today Dynasty)
01:09:15
Dave and Dan react to Heath's dynasty fantasy football tiers!
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- [00:00]
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- [01:35]
Heath Cummings
Welcome to Fantasy Football today Dynasty. I am your host Heath Cummings, joined right now by Dave Richard, joined in the next 20 minutes by Dan Schneier. That's right, it's a three man show. Dave. I can only presume that Dan is currently finishing up the coldest round of golf known to man.
- [01:55]
Dave Richard
It's either that or else he forgot about the show, overslept and was like in his PJs eating Frosted Flakes when he realized oh man, I'm. I'm on Heat's Dynasty show today. And now he's racing to get ready to go.
- [02:10]
Heath Cummings
And We've got our YouTube poll. Is Dan going to show up in his pajamas or in his golf attire? Probably. The answer is neither.
- [02:17]
Dave Richard
Well in today's well that it's the same attire.
- [02:20]
Heath Cummings
Either way he just sleeps in his golf clothes.
- [02:23]
Dave Richard
Or would you pass them the Guy used to do shows in his bathroom.
- [02:27]
Heath Cummings
That's he did used to. He was Dan on the can. Now he's Dan without the plan. But he's going to be here in just a little bit. We are on today's show talking about my dynasty tears. I update Dynasty rankings once a week during the season, once a month during the off season and a few times a year I put together these dynasty tiers. And Dave, you've done tiers for decades in terms of redraft content and I, I always find it interesting the discussion of like what are you trying to do when you tier players? There are some players that put them together kind of by archetype. These are the guys who, the young running backs who could be workhorses and the old running backs who may only have one year left and, and so on and so forth. There's some people I know when you, you talk a lot about like ADP when you're putting together your tiers. I am kind of with mine searching for like who do I value the most? Similarly for the purposes of trades. So you will see rookies in the Same tier as 30 year olds. Does that make any sense?
- [03:44]
Dave Richard
Yeah, absolutely. And I think it's important to highlight how you go about your tiers. I do like to put players of similar value and expectations in the same tier and I think that's a lot harder to do in Dynasty. But I, I think if I did do dynasty tears, it would be all right here, here are the players that are going to play. They're going to be like top five wide receivers for five plus years. I don't want to look further than five plus years. All right, so that would be the first tier and then the second tier would be all right, here are the players that might be elite for three to five years and then just right on down until we get to a tier where it's here are wide receivers. So as long as it's that type of layout, as long as people can understand what you're going for, I think it's important and I think it's good.
- [04:33]
Heath Cummings
So I think we'll, we'll just start before we even take our first break. I want to get to the quarterback position because I think that how you tier play players and what, what your goal is of this operation really comes into play when you look at that position in the way that it stands right now in, in Dynasty fantasy football. This, this top tier for a long time has included the name Patrick Mahomes. This top tier, I think for A lot of people might include the name Jaden Daniels after the last couple of weekends, but tier one, Dave, I have just Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson and it's basically like if I was going to define that tier, it would be quarterbacks who have shown us truly elite fantasy upside. And we're elite this year. Like the Allen and Jackson are kind of the only two guys that fully meet that we've seen them both be over 30 fantasy points per game. Nobody did that this year. They were the two of the top three quarterbacks in fantasy football this season. Is that first tier too small, though?
- [05:36]
Dave Richard
I think you're missing one name. I think you're missing Joe Burrow and, and maybe you're missing Burrow because you're worried about, you know, his injury history. This is really like the first year it seems like ever, but really the first year where he's played every game, no issues, seems fine. Maybe you're worried about what his receiving core will look like, but I, I still. He's the same age range as Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson. He still has plenty of upside. He's a phenomenal thrower. He's going to have Jamar Chase for the next five plus years. He's going to play the next five plus years. I'm not saying I would put him ahead of Josh Allen or Lamar Jackson, but this would be one of the players that I would put into that top tier along with Josh and Lamar.
- [06:21]
Heath Cummings
And I owe Baker Mayfield and an apology because he was actually ahead of Josh Allen. Allen was QB4 this year in terms of fantasy points per game. But I, I guess if I was pushing back on Burrow at all, it would be one. The T. Higgins question because he has been a, a different fantasy quarterback when he's had both Chase and Higgins versus when those guys have missed time. And then the, the second thing would be like, we'd agree this was the best fantasy season of Joe Burrow's career. Right?
- [06:53]
Dave Richard
The stats say it.
- [06:54]
Heath Cummings
Okay, so he in, in this and as a rule, like if you're five years into a guy's career with you four years maybe, and he just had no five years. He just had his career year. Like, we don't necessarily think this is just the new normal. He's probably going to be somewhere between this and what he's been in the past. And that career year was 27 fantasy points per game. Well, we saw Lamar score 30 fantasy points per game this year. We've seen Lamar do that and all the other seasons we've seen Josh Allen flirt with that 30 number. He was only at 25.5. This year we've seen Patrick Mahomes give us a season over 30 fantasy points per game. I guess if I was and Jalen Hurts has gotten closer than Burrow did this year. But I guess if I was just like looking at Tier 2 with Mahomes, with Burrow, with Hertz and with Jaden Daniels, for me, the reason that Burrow belongs there is I'm not sure that he actually does have as much upside as Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson.
- [07:55]
Dave Richard
We did see Joe Burrow average 26.3 fantasy points per game in 2022. I don't, I view T. Higgins as a huge catalyst for Burrow. I agree with you, but I don't view T. Higgins as an irreplaceable player. Meaning that I, I think the Bengals could eventually, I'm not saying they're going to be able to do it immediately in 2025, but maybe by 2026 have a wide receiver who steps up and is 80% to a hundred percent of what t. Higgins has been. So I, I again, I like, I, I'm really, I'm a big believer in Joe Burrow and I think he can elevate his pass catchers as well. Not really that concerned about him falling off to a level where he's at. What was he at last year? It was like 17 7. But that includes games healthy and throwing as much. And then just just by comparison, Lamar Jackson averaged 23.7 last year, 22.5 the year before that, 21.6 the year before that. And so he's had a string of years where he has, he's had moments of monster games, but he really hasn't been, you know, as consistent as Josh Allen. Let's say where Allen and Azers talked about this on the main Fantasy football today show, 26 plus fantasy points per game each of the last four years, five years, something like that. I think that's the gold standard. I think Allen is the gold standard and we can talk about Lamar Jackson and how amazing he was this year, but it's his first year in four where he's been north of 24 fantasy points per game and Burrow's done that in two of his last three.
- [09:36]
Heath Cummings
Yeah, I think like the thing we've talked about a lot with Lamar Jackson throughout the years, he is the poster boy for Azer stats because of the partial games, because of the, the times that he's missed with injury. Burrows had the same problem. I think when you look at that. Tier 2. It seems to be general consensus that Patrick Mahomes is a tier tier 2 dynasty quarterback. It seems to be general consensus that Jalen Hurts is a tier two dynasty quarterback. You argued for Burrow in tier one. We had a question from Joe in the chat. He says if Jaden does what he did this year, next year, would he belong in that first tier? And I think it's worth just, again, I like to have the numbers up in front of me so we can just talk about what just happened. Jalen Daniels finished this year with an average of 23 and a half fantasy points per game. Awesome for a rookie spectacular. If you just want to look at week one through 17, it's 24.7, so even better. I. I'm not sure that that does get him into tier one, though. Like, we need to see something closer to what Joe Burrow did this year. Right.
- [10:50]
Dave Richard
Would you care to know what he did in his final six games? And then getting even more granular his final six games. If you throw out week 18.
- [10:59]
Heath Cummings
So five of his final six games.
- [11:02]
Dave Richard
Right. So his final six games he was at 30.4. This is when he was recovered from the rib injury. The offense was much more open to him as far as passing the football. I think they did more no huddle toward the end of the season as well, and they started to get some good play from other wide receivers other than Terry McLaurin. And then if you just, if you chop off week 18 now it's five games, it's 35.6. Like that's how bad week 18 was. I don't know how much they were really trying in that game against Dallas. Say what you will about week 18 now, I do think that if the Commanders add another wide receiver and they bulk up their offensive line a little bit more, I think you can make the case for Jaden Daniels to belong in that first year. I think he's got the upside to be around 26 fantasy points per game over the course of 17 games, not just for five or six games toward the end of the year. And I think there's no question that he's. He's a great passer. We saw this. We were talking about this. Heath, you tell me March of last of 2024, just how good of a thrower he was in college and, and now he's brought it into the NFL, knows what he's doing out there and he can run. So there's a lot to be excited about. I would say this. If you're in a dynasty start at any point in the next six months, you will see people go and take Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson first and second. Do not be surprised if Daniels goes third because people are betting on the upside. Based on what we've seen this year and honestly what we saw from him as he developed in college now, he.
- [12:38]
Heath Cummings
Was better from a fantasy points per game basis than C.J. stroud was as a rookie. But we did see C.J. stroud ranked right in this range, tiered right in this range after his rookie season. Any concern at all about a sophomore slump from Daniels?
- [12:54]
Dave Richard
You have to be concerned about some sort of slump. But here, here's where I think there's, there's a very obvious difference and there's a very subtle difference. The obvious difference is C.J. stroud doesn't run. Jaden Daniels will. So that's going to add the floor to his fantasy production as long as he keeps running. I think the subtle difference is we saw the commander's offense evolve and get bigger and get more aggressive as the season went on. I, I don't want to tout Cliff Kingsbury too much and, and I think he's going to stay in Washington and be their offensive coordinator into 2025. But I am fairly optimistic that they will be able to develop their offense and add layers onto it that make a good example being they do what the Texans just did, which is add these wide receivers to make their offense even more explosive. Hopefully those wide receivers don't have off season issues, don't tear an ACL in the middle of the year and hopefully the offensive line doesn't regress. I felt like the Texans offense kind of changed for the worse for CJ Stroud. I don't think that the play design was quite as good. I think the offensive line had injuries and also just wasn't as good. And I think adding Joe Mixon just for the games, that Mixon was there and healthy, I think that impacted what C.J. stroud does as a thrower too. And, and those differences, if, if those come to pass in Washington, then yeah, Daniels could be worse in his second year. But just like what I'll say about Stroud is that I think Houston can go back to the drawing board and I think that they can build off of all their mistakes this year and possibly have a bounce back year for Stroud next year, I'm not ready to write off Stroud and if Daniels has a down year in a second year, I wouldn't be ready to write off Daniels in his third year.
- [14:43]
Heath Cummings
That's the top six quarterbacks in Dynasty, Tier 1 and Tier 2. Let's take a short break. We'll get to the tier three and tier four right after this.
- [14:51]
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- [15:55]
Heath Cummings
I just bought and financed a car.
- [15:56]
Dan Schneier
Through Carvana in minutes.
- [15:58]
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- [16:06]
Heath Cummings
Transparent terms, customizable, down and monthly. Didn't even have to do any paperwork.
- [16:10]
Symbiotica Representative
Wow.
- [16:11]
Dan Schneier
Mm.
- [16:12]
Heath Cummings
Hey, have you checked out that spreadsheet I sent you for our dinner? Options Finance your car with Carvana and experience total control financing subject to credit approval. This is really Dave, where things already start to get a little bit haywire in the tiering process. I've got five quarterbacks in tier three. Caleb Williams, Justin Herbert, Jordan Love, Brock Purdy and Kyler Murray. There's a wide range of skills and abilities in this group and I don't know how I would define it necessarily, but what stands out amongst those five as he should be hired higher or he should be lower.
- [16:53]
Dave Richard
So the first thought in my head is, how many of these quarterbacks are still going to be starting and effective for their NFL teams in two years? I would say all five. How many of them are still going to be there in three years? I think I'd say all five. But I, I'm not 100 locked in on love or Kyler. What about five years from now? I think the only quarterback in Tier 3, the names you just said, Caleb Herbert, Jordan Love, Brock Purdy, Kyler Murray. The only one that I'd feel really confident in still being a factor in fantasy five years from now is Justin Herbert. It's the only one. And so I'm not ready to say that like, oh, he should be in his own tier or Justin Herbert should be in tier two. I just think that he's probably the best of this group that I would trust. If I'm starting. I'm going to reference this a lot, Heath. If I'm starting a dynasty team and I can't get one of the first six quarterbacks that we named, Herbert would probably be the guy that I would look at seventh.
- [17:56]
Heath Cummings
And it's interesting and Dan is here and we're also excited about it. And I'm not sure I want to give Dan an impossible task to welcome him onto the show. Dan, because I don't know how many people will get this right, but when I go look at the fantasy points per game of these five quarterbacks in 20, 24 fantasy points per game, how do you think they ranked?
- [18:18]
Dan Schneier
Okay, fantasy points per game. The five in tier three, I assume. Okay, I think points per game we'd have Brock 1. We'd have. This is where it gets tricky. We might. No, we might have Caleb too. It's weird as it sounds, but I'm not going to put it there yet. He had so many big games too. Caleb, people don't remember, but he did have some really bad six point games too. All right, we're not going to do that. We're gonna do Brock one. That's easy. Kyler Herbert Love, Caleb. I switched up the Caleb.
- [18:53]
Heath Cummings
You nailed it. Dan nailed it. 20 and a half fantasy points per game for Brock purdy. The clear QB1 of this group. Kyler at 19.8, Herbert at 19.1. Love at 18.5, Caleb at 16.9. I love the fact that you were like debating was Caleb QB2? And then when you actually put them in order it was just clear that Caleb was. So I think it makes sense. Like he's by far the youngest. He was a rookie. We're just kind of washing that away. Dave was making the case for Herbert kind of at the top of this tier because he feels the best about his long term future as a NFL starter. I guess my only question is like we watch the tape of Justin Herbert and people who evaluate tape of Justin Herbert are very confident that he's a very, very good NFL quarterback. But that hasn't actually translated into very much NFL success. And in the same way it's been kind of lacking in fantasy success recently as well. Do we actually get Justin Herbert as a starting fantasy quarterback again soon?
- [20:05]
Dan Schneier
I think I think he's probably going to be fringe for a while, just given what we have at the top of the position and how many players we have above him who run and add value via the run. Even players I see behind him, Bo, Nick Strake, may there's a possibility like they both outperform him from a fantasy points per game standpoint next year just based on the fact they're both going to be running a lot. It makes such a difference in fantasy. We've talked about this at length throughout the years. So he did run a little bit toward the end of the season when he was healthier and then got rebanged up. Kind of the question comes down to me, like, will we ever see a fully healthy Justin Herbert again? He's had so many injuries throughout his career because if he is, I think that that system, if they're going to keep it and I think they will with Roman and Harbaugh, does lead itself to some upside for the quarterback position running the football. And we saw it a little bit at times. So to me it kind of comes down to that. Will we see an evolution of his game in that regard from a fantasy standpoint? Will he run more without it? It becomes a situation where you know you're back to all of these pocket guys like C.J. stroud this year. Probably the biggest missing fantasy at the quarterback position by far. And when you look at it from a hole, it's like, well, was this really that difficult for us to see? Sure. On one hand he had all three receivers and it looked great on paper. On the other hand, it's a quarterback year two in a system they're going to take away concepts and he doesn't give you that rushing floor. It just when you don't have that rushing floor, I feel like it's very difficult to maintain your value in fantasy at quarterback.
- [21:25]
Heath Cummings
Yeah. If you thought it sounded like I was being too hard on Justin Herbert, like just in terms of fantasy points per game. He was QB17 in 2022, 410 of a point behind Daniel Jones.
- [21:39]
Dan Schneier
Yes.
- [21:40]
Heath Cummings
In 2023 he was once again QB. He was QB10 in 2023 tied with looks like Mahomes. So a little Bounce back up to QB10 last, last year, falls back down into that QB15, QB17 range. I, I'd love to see another year like we saw in 2021. He was QB16 last year, half a point better than Russell Wilson. Dave Tier 4 it's, it's the young guys but I don't think you could have a real strong certainty that any of them are going to be a starting quarterback in five years yet. We think Drake May is probably the most likely. But Drake may, Bo Nix and then two guys that are just impossible to tear, Anthony Richardson and C.J. stroud. Do you have a strong preference in this group?
- [22:25]
Dave Richard
Dave I think this is where you might look for a quarterback. If you take the last quarterback in tier three and you want to get a second guy that might have more long term upside. I think May and Nix offer that I'm not ready to write off C.J. stroud because of one bad year. I worry about Ant. I worry about Anthony Richardson being a starting quarterback two years from now. Yeah like if he, if he's, if he's terrible to start next season, the Colts might bench him and not bring.
- [22:59]
Heath Cummings
Him back 100 and so there's so.
- [23:02]
Dave Richard
Much I've got him on one of my dynasty teams. So much risk with him and the reward. It's great because of that rushing floor. We can keep talking about it but everybody knows what it is so let's not can he win games with that rushing floor. He's got to become a better thrower. This is the make or break off season for Anthony Richardson. He's probably appropriate in this tier 4 range but I, I still, I still like Drake May a lot long term and, and Bonix too. Like I, I don't know if he can ever be anything better than what we were talking about with Justin Herbert. He could be around 20 fantasy points per game for the next five years. It wouldn't surprise me in the least but I, I don't know if he can evolve into being any better than that as, as we move forward.
- [23:51]
Heath Cummings
I guess the way I'd say it is I, I think it's really unlikely that Anthony Richardson finishes in a similar range as Drake May, Bo Nix and CJ Stroud in the next three years. But he has the better chance in my opinion than all of them to be a top five fantasy quarterback and a better chance to get replaced in the middle of the 2025 season. And you've got to tier those guys somewhere. I would say Richardson moves up. If you're talking about A one quarterback league because I don't care what the floor is and he moves down if you're talking about a super flex league because the floor really matters a lot and he has almost no floor I want to get. We're going to quickly turn the page, Dan. Tier five shares almost nothing with tier four. It's three old performers, Jared Goff, Deck Prescott and Baker Mayfield. You have any concern, Dan, about the next two to three years with any of these three quarterbacks?
- [24:44]
Dan Schneier
Good. Interesting question. Concern, I would say least concerned about golf. Despite losing Ben Johnson, the infrastructure there really has me excited about just a safe. A safe, I guess floor for him, Dak and Baker. That's interesting. Baker's already proven he can kind of make it work despite losing his coordinator. He lost Canales, now he's going to lose cone, it looks like. I don't think that's official yet, but it's close with cone going to Jacksonville. Mike Evans will retire soon so he'll lose that Godwin. We don't know the status of that and if he's going to move forward team. It seems like Baker's done a good job though utilizing receivers like McMillan, even Sterling Shepard at times like so I don't think that's a big reason for his success. The receivers he's had. It is of course, but I don't think it's a, I guess a crutch. So I would say the one I'm maybe most concerned about would be Dak Prescott. Just so much of what Prescott does, he wins with his mind. He wins with the processing, the post snap processing. And when I watch the Cowboys, a lot of it is just quick game or it was this year at least, which is great and it works. It doesn't really provide that much of a fantasy ceiling, I don't think and I said this I guess 3 years ago now on FFT once he had that first ankle injury, I said they will not use him as their zone read runner in the red zone anymore and they haven't. His touchdowns in there as a runner have gone down significantly since that injury and he's his running in general has gone down so he fits into the building. I was discussing before like he has to do it with his arm to have fantasy success. We have enough people who, who are running at this point that like you really got to throw 35 TDs 4k yards to to get into that QB1 status. I don't really feel like Dak Prescott has a good opportunity to continue that moving forward. So he would be the one I'm most concerned with.
- [26:22]
Heath Cummings
Oh, tier six. I'm just gonna ask you both a rapid fire question because if we take this long on all four positions we're going to be here for two hours. Dave, Trevor Lawrence, Michael Penix, Tua, JJ McCarthy, Bryce Young. That's tier six. I kind of call it the twenty dollar scratcher group because there's certainly some upside there but they're not, it's not a cheap scratcher. Like these guys all still cost something and they could all still go to zero very, very soon.
- [26:47]
Dave Richard
Penix is the one that I'm targeting just because he's the youngest as far as talent goes. Or McCarthy might actually be younger than Pennix.
- [26:55]
Heath Cummings
McCarthy's like 6 years younger I think.
- [26:57]
Dave Richard
Yeah, I would probably rank it. Pennix, McCarthy, Lawrence, Young, Tua. And I know that sounds crazy but I, I think if we're, if we're just strictly looking at long view, I think that's kind of maybe not crazy because we don't know how much longer two is going to play. Is TUA about to embark on a make or break year with the Dolphins? I would argue that he is and so putting him in tier 6, if he has an awesome season, Dolphins actually make the playoffs, win a playoff game, then he'll be a factor for a while. But the other thing I'll say is how many quarterbacks do we name before we even got to this tier?
- [27:36]
Heath Cummings
Has to be 12.
- [27:37]
Dave Richard
That should be probably in the neighborhood of 15. So a lot of these quarterbacks, these are backups in a 1 QB league. I don't know if I'm really thinking about Bryce Young or Trevor Lawrence as a backup quarterback. One that I would prioritize anyway compared to somebody like pan X and McCarthy.
- [27:53]
Heath Cummings
We're at 19 through 23 with this group here and that was just for the record. Bryce Young also I think at least a year younger than Michael Pennix. Trevor Lawrence a couple months older than Michael Pennix. He's old. Dan, who's your favorite of this group?
- [28:09]
Dan Schneier
For me it's actually Trevor Lawrence. Look, I'm excited about Liam Cohen going there. I know it's been bad for him. I know really it's banking on just one stretch of good fantasy success. It started with that Baltimore game two, I think three years ago now at this point or two seasons ago, two full seasons ago. So it's a little hopium. But I just look at the arm talent and I look at the ability upside as a rusher if that can be a part of his game. But the other guy for me would be Bryce Young. The strides he took on tape in the second half were phenomenal. He was one of the best anticipatory throwers in the entire NFL. And to me, that's the trait that stands out. It's a trait that keeps you with a starting job. It's a trait that leads to explosive plays in the passing game. So if they can figure out a way to get him some more explosive weapons and a better O line to kind of operate behind, then to me he has a chance to be that rare type of quarterback. Because we know one thing with Bryce Young we learned this year, he's willing to and able to get you points with his legs. And that's something we saw this year. He's really agile, lateral. Laterally agile in a phone booth to make defenders miss. So Bryce and Lawrence would be my two guys. Bryce, maybe even one.
- [29:10]
Heath Cummings
Let's move over to the yes to.
- [29:12]
Dave Richard
Dave just for a quick second. Could it be a good strategy in a startup to target one of the value older quarterbacks? You could talk about golf or Baker Mayfield for this example. Get one of them and then maybe get two of.
- [29:27]
Dan Schneier
Yeah.
- [29:27]
Dave Richard
J.J. mcCarthy, Bryce Young, Michael Panics and throw Trevor Lawrence in their two cents. He's effectively the same age as Penix. And then you've got a guy for now and a guy maybe for later and somebody who could be very good later on. I like that idea.
- [29:41]
Heath Cummings
Yes. It's not a bad strategy. It is pretty cheap. Let's go to the running back position. And this is like this position. Going through this process really kind of shocked me. Just because we like, thank goodness we've got 20 NFL running backs coming in the next draft class because, man, do we need them. The first two tiers, three running backs, Bijan Robinson and Jameer Gibbs in tier one. Devon Achan, my only running back in Tier two. This is probably not enough names for the top Dan. Who am I missing?
- [30:13]
Dan Schneier
I mean, the idea would be you could potentially be missing Breeze Hall. That's the, that's the question, right? Because going into last year, this time, if we'd recorded this this time last year, Breeze hall would be tier one. He won't even be a consideration for tier two now. He's not in one of tier one or tier two. Of course, things seem to have changed a lot for Breeze hall from year to year. They are using more running backs. Braylon Allen looks really good there. They even worked. And I forget who toward the end of the season who looked okay. In that backfield. So maybe as we move forward with Aaron Glenn's coaching staff, we don't really know exactly what that's going to shape up as. Obviously he's just hired and we don't know what the offensive direction is going to be. But it might be a multi back system which takes away a lot of that upside. Bijan's kind of operating in a multi back system. Jameer Gibbs is, at least for now. Devon Hn kind of is. Wasn't really from a usage standpoint this year. So you can make the case that all these guys, no one really has the full backfield at this point. But we didn't really see the splash plays from Breeze hall this year either. We didn't see the operation in the passing game which we saw be a big part of his Fantasy Assassin past season. So there's just a lot of uncertainty. But that would be the guy I would put up there. Just from a pure talent standpoint.
- [31:20]
Heath Cummings
That's the thing is like we've. He'll be 24 before he plays another football game and that's not old at running back. He's just entering his prime. That's great. But he's also entering year four and he does not have a 1,000 yard rushing season. He does not have a 10 touchdown season. And this team looks like it's probably going to be awful offensively once again. And so Dave, as we turn the page to tier three, we find Breeze hall in the same tiered as Kyron Williams and Jonathan Taylor and immediately it feels like people look at the names Kyron Williams and Breece hall in the same tier and they think, oh, I want Breeze Hall, Gross. I don't want Kyron Williams. And Kyron Williams has been so much better than him the last two seasons. Why does everyone hate Kyron Williams?
- [32:10]
Dave Richard
I. I think they don't like him because he doesn't have the pedigree. And I don't know, he's.
- [32:18]
Heath Cummings
That's. That's like you're.
- [32:19]
Dave Richard
He's a year older than Breeze Hall.
- [32:21]
Dan Schneier
I don't think it's totally that just because of the pedigree. Like at least my, my opinion because I'm extremely low on Kyron from a dynasty standpoint. It's. And I understand what the other side of it is. It's. But it's also just the idea of like when does this Rams restart thing? Restart? Because if Stafford's done there, I just.
- [32:37]
Heath Cummings
Yeah, they might be as bad as the jets next year.
- [32:39]
Dan Schneier
That's the thing or worse, like.
- [32:41]
Dave Richard
Or they're back in playoff contention again because Stafford's not going away. And that offensive line is pretty good.
- [32:47]
Dan Schneier
Everything is good. But you. I just personally can't underestimate or overestimate Sean McVeigh in that regard. As far as if you don't have a quarterback in this league, I just think you go nowhere in the NFL and you just have no. They have no solution for getting a quarterback. If Stafford does move on from this team and retire, they won too many games. Like that's it. Like you can maybe hope to get lucky, but that's not really how the draft works. I guess you can hope for like Jamis or something like that. Who can keep an offense from a fantasy standpoint on a little bit of a track in that regard. If I'm talking from a fantasy standpoint with Kyron. But if Stafford's gone, like what do you have for Kyron at that point? You have the O line but you have no offense. And with the, it's not just the pedigree with the, with the history of injuries, there's a lot there that I just don't love about Kyron.
- [33:30]
Heath Cummings
Yeah, I mean what I'll tell you is like if you're looking for it, I don't know that elite running back production from a 24 or 25 year old has ever been cheaper. Like if you like normally you cannot find 24 and 25 year old RB ones that people are just like man, please give me a first. And like normally you got to pay two or three first to get that.
- [33:53]
Dave Richard
True.
- [33:53]
Heath Cummings
So don't hesitate to take advantage of that possibility. In tier five. We're already squirrely like the first six running backs or I'm sorry, tier four, the first six running backs. I, I feel pretty good about all those guys. I know Dan doesn't like Kyron. Nobody likes Kyron. I'm fine with that. I love the top six. We get to top to number seven and we already have a 28 year old running back in Saquon Barkley. And tier four is Barkley, Bucky Irving, Chase Brown, Ken Walker, James Cook, Dave Irving and Brown are the two types of backs that for the last couple of or at least the last decade I've heard people in Dynasty beware of that day three or UDFA running back who just had a great rookie year. You mean like last year, like, like Kyron Williams, like Isaiah Pacheco, like James Robinson, like Michael Carter, like there's been a lot of them that didn't work. Also but we've seen Kyron do it two years in a row. So can we just cross our fingers and hope Bucky and Chase Brown do too?
- [34:59]
Dave Richard
You can cross your fingers and hope so, but I think there will be some complications. Yes, their cases, the chief among them being they're going to get company. Heath, you mentioned earlier there's like 20 running backs in this draft class that you love. Dan, I'm sure you'd back that up and say that this is a very deep class of running back here. We have two running backs that helped carry their offenses to. To the finish line. One got in the playoffs, the other one fell just short. But they were sharing and now there's. There's so many players that could end up sharing with them that are coming into the league right now, and that makes me a little bit nervous. It's going to be easy for Cincinnati to find another running back if they're going to just move on from Zach Moss. You know, that wouldn't be surprising. It might be a smidge of surprising for the Bucks to move on from Rashad White, but you can see it happening. Rashad White hasn't been an effective runner for two seasons now and Bucky Irving is effective and he's proven that he can do it. So I get a little nervous about them being any higher than this. I think they're appropriate in tier four. I'm. I'm glad you're not rushing them up the ladder a little bit. And you've got him in the same tier as Saquan Barkley and. And I'm not ready to write off Saquon.
- [36:20]
Heath Cummings
And we got a little technical difficulty there with Dave's sound, I think for a second we lost Dave. I can hear Dan. And Dan, as much as I agree with Dave's concerns about Bucky and Chase Brown, they aren't even the two running backs who make me the most nervous in this tier. It's Ken Walker. I don't want know what to do with a guy who's explosive and has the upside that Walker does. But also Zach Charbonnet looked better at the end of the year.
- [36:45]
Dan Schneier
Yeah, I mean, just looking at the offense, the offense runs better with Charbonnet in there because of the way that he runs. But Walker gives them the upside of the explosive play that Charbonnet may not give them. So it's really a pick and choose. The best coaches will probably find a way to utilize both. But that gets me to some of my concern with some of the players we discussed because I would Agree. Look, Walker's probably the most concerning, but Bucky and Chase Brown, those guys would scare the hell out of me if I had them and I was valuing them or if I was trying to trade them and valuing them in a tier like this. To me, Bucky love what I saw. I thought his college tape was. I thought his NFL tape was better than his college tape despite playing against slower defenders in college and worst defenders in college. That's how good I think he can be. But I'm concerned when you lose Liam Cohen. When I read stuff like Sean McVeigh saying, wow, you know, this is the core, this is my system, what Liam's running at the core. But he's doing stuff in the run game that shocked even me when I watched the tape. And so now you lose that from the run game in Tampa. Right. And then on the other hand, it's Chase Brown, who was never built to be a workhorse back. He had one season where he did it at Illinois and kind of did it, I should say. But, you know, there's no guarantee that's going to be the case moving forward. As Dave mentioned stack loaded class, the plan for Cincinnati originally wasn't to make him a workhorse. It was Zach Moss until he got hurt. So those guys scare me more. And Dave was getting to the point, Heath, but I gotta say I'm with Dave. I don't know if he still was getting when he's gonna get here with this point, but I'm with Dave. Barkley, to me, doesn't really belong in this tier. Barkley belongs in a tier above and maybe even a tier above that for me. I understand he's 28, but I think we're over you. We're over emphasizing age here when we're talking about a two, three year difference for what is a generational player versus a non generational player. Like we've done this with Derrick Henry for the last four years and he's just a freak of nature that defines all physics and all logic. And Barkley is the same thing. I know he's had more injuries in his history than Derrick Henry, but one of those injuries, just pure luck. He's running a route over the middle and steps on the foot of a Dallas defender and it ruins the season. He had an ACL as well, and then he had an MCL sprain. Like outside of that, he was fully healthy this season. He had a fully healthy season for the Giants in 2022, essentially. So it's like I would say that Barkley When I look at this, just as a whole, I don't really like to see Barkley in a tier with these guys. I just couldn't value those guys the same, personally. He's the only workhorse. He was the only workhorse in any of these tiers. Really.
- [39:01]
Heath Cummings
Well, yeah, it's really about how much. Like, you couldn't have said this about Saquon Barclay coming into this coming year.
- [39:10]
Dan Schneier
Right. You're right. But maybe you should.
- [39:13]
Heath Cummings
Well, no, I think what we saw is how much Saquon Barkley benefited from the situation.
- [39:19]
Dan Schneier
Right.
- [39:20]
Heath Cummings
I am. So I, I let me just Heath rant for a moment here, because we've heard all week long about how the defensive plan is just make Jalen Hurts beat you and just take the ball away from Saquon Barkley. And the Eagles would be nothing without Saquon Barkley. And Jalen Hurts is just along for the ride. Jalen Hurts was going to Super Bowls before he had Saquon Barkley.
- [39:42]
Dan Schneier
One Super Bowl.
- [39:43]
Heath Cummings
Jalen Holt went to a Super bowl and was going to the playoffs all but one year. Saquon Barkley played two playoff games in six years before he joined Jalen Hurts. Saquon Barkley was averaging 4.4 yards per touch over the last four years of his career and then goes to Philadelphia and all of a sudden he's averaging six. Like this situation this year.
- [40:04]
Dan Schneier
I know what you're saying, that the narrative that Barkley has is the reason for that team is ridiculous. I mean, look at it even more like, be smart about football and understand it's Jeff Stoutland and the five offensive linemen there. They bring in Makai Becton, all of a sudden he's one of the most dominant right guards in the NFL. Cam Jerkins, they draft him before they need him. He's immediately amazing. At center, Landon Dickerson has an acl, so he falls to round two. He's immediately one of the best guards in the NFL. Jordan Myallotta, seventh round pick that goes to Jeff Stoutland University, he becomes one of the best left tables in the NFL. And Lane Johnson very legitimately has a case to be made that he's the best right tackle in NFL history. Literally NFL history. So that's five of those guys. Jeff Stoutland and a quarterback who can run, and you have to. And. And when they run zone reed, you can't crash down on Barkley. So the Barkley narrative is ridiculous. I'll agree with you on that.
- [40:47]
Heath Cummings
The. The rant's over. Aaron, you're right. This is what grinds my gears. But we do need to get back to the list because. Because what you said, Dan, I think could be very much true about the next tier. We get to tier 5 and this is a place where I did kind of go with archetype over. Over just a strict value. But we have Josh Jacobs, Joe Mixon, Christian McCaffrey, Alvin Camara and Derrick Henry. Like these should be your win now backs, but I feel a little bit less certain about them than I do Barkley, which is why they are a tier behind him. But I. I just wonder, like, let's say you've got a true contending roster, Dan, and you have Bucky Irving or Chase Brown. How many of these backs, Jacob Mixon, McCaffrey, Camara and Henry are you trading those much younger backs for?
- [41:36]
Dan Schneier
Great question. I think without a doubt, Jacobs, you know I'm much higher than you are on him. And Dynasty, I had him. I'm big on him. He just signed the contract. Green Bay, they. I don't see that changing anytime soon. Jordan loves under contract, great infrastructure. So definitely Jacobs. The rest of them is where it gets interesting. I think I'm definitely more, way more willing to trade Chase Brown than I am Bucky Irving. Bucky Irving looked much better on tape to me than Chase Brown. Buggy Irving looked like he could legitimately be a star on tape, so that's the one I'd be scared to trade. But as far as Chase Brown goes, I'll give him up for McCaffrey in a heartbeat. I'll give him up for Henry if I'm contending, not Camara. Maybe mixing and do not like seeing that Bengals graphing next to mixing though. Great job. I don't want to take a shot at Thomas. He's the man. But we had one we don't like Dan.
- [42:22]
Heath Cummings
Have you? Is this your first video show? You don't say that. It gets fixed in post and then it look good later. Come on, Dan. Let's take a short break so Dan can recover from that.
- [42:31]
Dan Schneier
I need to recover from that club.
- [42:33]
Heath Cummings
And we'll get to tier 6 after this.
- [42:35]
Dan Schneier
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- [43:23]
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- [44:28]
Heath Cummings
Mega tier and maybe the last tier that we're going to talk about at running back today. Chuba Hubbard. They can just. That's hilarious. David Montgomery, Isaiah Pacheco, Travis Etienne, Tank Bigsby, James Connor, DeAndre Swift, J.K. dobbins, Brian Robinson, Aaron Jones, Naji Harris, Tony Pollard, and Ramandre Stevenson. And yes, there's like five or six young backs you might really like that I put in the tier below because I don't even know if they're going to be starting running backs next year. So we're just going to talk about this Tier 6. I want you to kind of look at the names. How many of these guys do you actually feel comfortable will be like an RB2 next year?
- [45:09]
Dan Schneier
Great question. I'll say. So first I want to start with James Connor, who I would put more in the veteran tier above him, especially since they resigned him Arizona and everything we Saw from Drew Pretzing and the health of that run game. So that would be the first one for me that I feel comfortable with. I want to say Pacheco. I mean, could they really bring back Kareem Hunt? Maybe, if you're Kareem Hunt. If you're the Chiefs, you can probably find a good, reasonable contract there. And I don't see why Kareem Hunt would want to play anywhere else. So that scares me a bit. I want to bring two guys to the front, to the forefront here, though. It's tough because I don't know which one will have more value. I'll go with my guy, though. The guy I think is more talented and a better runner on tape. And it's Tank Bigsby. And why am I excited about him potentially as an RB2? Because Liam Cohen's going over there. And Liam Cohen designed one of the best run games in football this year behind the Lions and maybe a couple others. So that gets me excited about a guy who's been really talented on tape. Had some injuries, so I want to throw Tank Bigsby in there. J.K. dobbins will be dependent if he resigns. Brian Robinson a little bit lower on Tony Pollard. How about him? He's under contract. Just signed it last year. The expectation, the hope is the Titans will improve at quarterback that I don't know about. And I can't say for sure whenever you're drafting a quarterback, if they even do. But I will say this. The offense that Callahan brought in, I'm talking about his father, not I'm talking about. Yeah, they blocked well. And Latham played unbelievable this year, as did Skoronski, who took a big jump from year one to year two. That O line is going to become one of the 10, maybe even top eight, seven best in the NFL over the next year or two. I want to have a running back in that offense.
- [46:42]
Heath Cummings
Just really, really quick. DeAndre Swift gets Ben Johnson. Is that a positive because he gets Ben Johnson or a negative because three years ago, Ben Johnson just played Jamal Williams over him.
- [46:52]
Dan Schneier
Yeah, great, great point. I'm gonna go with negative. Just not. Yeah, negative's fine. I think it's pretty much net neutral. I don't. Not a huge fan of Swift.
- [47:02]
Heath Cummings
Let's jump to the wide receiver position and get Dan fired up right away because I did it. I put Jamar Chase in a tier of his own all alone. It's been him and Justin Jefferson for the past three years. I've gone back and forth on cd. Lamb was definitely a part of that group for about 15 minutes. But I. After the year we just saw with the quarterback question marks that we have for Jefferson, I. I'm putting Jamar Chase in a league of his own at the wide receiver position.
- [47:34]
Dan Schneier
I think that's fair. I think what we just saw from a dominant standpoint, the idea that Higgins might be gone, that could lead to even more production. The rapport that just continues to build between Burrow and Chase. And then most importantly for me, just looking at some of the breakdowns this season of what Joe Burrow did, that wrist injury did impact him more than people realize. But he worked with his quarterback trainer and found a way to utilize more of his lower half and generating force from the ground to get that armed strength back that he may have lost or just playing through the injury. And from what I saw, this was actually the best version of Joe Burrow this year. So I'm excited about what he's going to do moving forward. So yeah, I like that pick with him. Him in his own tier.
- [48:11]
Heath Cummings
I've got six wide receivers in tier two, which is more than there used to be. Justin Jefferson, Malik, Neighbors, Puka, Nakua, CD Lamb, A. Monroe, St. Brown and Brian Thomas Jr. Any of these guys not belong, Any of these guys should be lower or you agree with this group?
- [48:25]
Dan Schneier
Heck no, I completely agree with this group. Maybe the order we could debate on and have fun with, but this is an elite group.
- [48:31]
Heath Cummings
Let's get to tier 3 and tier 4 then.
- [48:34]
Dan Schneier
You real quick, Heath.
- [48:34]
Heath Cummings
Okay.
- [48:35]
Dan Schneier
Is there anyone in that group? Obviously we're not going to talk about tier one that you would. Would you take a running back? Okay, maybe Bijan, would you take any running back not in your tier one? Because there's only two players over anyone in that group.
- [48:51]
Heath Cummings
Yeah, yeah, I would.
- [48:53]
Dan Schneier
Okay.
- [48:55]
Heath Cummings
Actually, I take it back. I was just looking at my trade shirt and it actually does go exactly in order. The first seven wide receivers and then Bijan's almost. Bijan and Gibbs are almost tied with Brian Thomas Jr. But now, yeah, I think.
- [49:09]
Dan Schneier
I don't know if I would take any. Any those running backs over any of those receivers though. That's how good I feel about them long term. Maybe over Puka. Not that I don't like Puka's talent again, I'm just really worried about what's gonna happen. That Rams quarterback situation.
- [49:20]
Heath Cummings
I will say that I would take three running backs over Tier 3 wide receivers, which is what we're going to next. And I've only got two guys there and I don't feel confident now. I broke these two groups up, so let's just talk about them together. Tier 3, I have Nico Collins, I have Jackson Smith and J. Tier 4, Lad McConkey, Marvin Harrison Jr. Jordan Addison, Drake London, Garrett Wilson and A.J. brown. I would say the A.J. brown one almost needs an asterisk because this wide receiver position has gotten so young. I know there's not a wide receiver who will even be 27 wow. Next year. In my top 14, AJ Brown is 15th and he'll be 28 next year. So two years older than any other wide receiver we've talked about so far. Three, four, five years older, six years older than some of them. So that's why he's so low. If you're a true contender, he certainly needs to be higher. But first off, like where I drew that line, is this just all one tier or should I have drawn the line somewhere else?
- [50:21]
Dan Schneier
I would be okay with moving this to one tier. If we move Nico up to tier two, Nico Collins to me belongs in tier two for sure. Just a phenomenal player. His yards per outrun was historically good and he has CJ Stroud tied to him. The rest of them, I'm okay moving into their own tier. I would be lower and higher on some players, but I think it, it makes sense and I think it does make sense to keep AJ Brown, despite his age in this tier.
- [50:45]
Heath Cummings
I will say with Nico, like I have come around on the idea of how elite he is, he doesn't, he hasn't yet seen the target volume maybe necessarily to put him in that tier two, okay, like even last year he only played 12 games, but 99 targets the year before and 15 games only had 109 targets. He would actually be challenging with his efficiency numbers that you've mentioned to be amongst the most elite producers. If we could see 10, 11 targets per game from Nico Colons like we see from a lot of the guys in the first two tiers. Dave is back. Dave, you, you see this list here. We've got lad McConkey, Marvin Harrison Jr. A couple of rookies in this tier. But the, the one I get the most question about is Jordan Addison, Drake London and Garrett Wilson all in the same range. Because we've had a couple of years here where we just as soon as Drake London gets a quarterback, he's going to be a top two or three tier guy. Garrett Wilson, as soon as he gets a quarterback. Jordan Addison doesn't necessarily have a quarterback, but he's out produced these guys the last two years.
- [51:55]
Dave Richard
He's also got Justin Jefferson and I, I think back to when the night that Jordan Addison was drafted. And I think it was you and I, Heath, that that was that we're talking about him, that he was always going to be in the shadow of. Of Jetta and that means thousand yards or so, seven touchdowns or so, and he's been better than that. And I just feel like he's never going to be that number one guy. And maybe it's a little too much to put him in this high of a tier. I'd probably push him back at least one tier knowing that everybody else in this group has upside to be better than a thousand and seven.
- [52:37]
Heath Cummings
When you talk about he's never going to be. He's already made it through two years of that contract. He's still younger than these guys. Like he. He may just be that guy in two to three years if Minnesota can't afford to pay just two elite wide receivers. The same problem that Cincinnati is getting ready to go through.
- [52:55]
Dave Richard
Sure. But they. Yeah, I guess that could be an issue. Am I willing to wait for that and cross my fingers for that, knowing that there's plenty of things that can happen between now and then that could drag down Addison's value And the answer to that is no, I'm not willing to. Especially with. I don't know how many names exactly you have in tier number five, but I know it's more than what you've got in tier number four. And that means between these two tiers, I've got plenty of options ahead of getting Jordan Addison on my team. And this patiently waiting 24 months to see what happens with this contract, which, by the way, he could end up resigning in Minnesota and still being the number two receiver there. We'll. We'll see how that goes, but we're not going to know it for 24 months.
- [53:45]
Heath Cummings
Yeah, I, I guess the 24 argument is fair. I think he can produce like Garrett Wilson has had a chance to be that number one and has produced a lot like Jordan Addison as a number two.
- [53:55]
Dave Richard
I agree.
- [53:57]
Heath Cummings
So maybe, maybe both Addison and Wilson should be in a lower tier. London at least. Looks like maybe he's figured something out. Let's get to tier five, which I, I guess would be the mega tier for this discussion. It's a lot of names. T. Higgins, Jameson Williams, Xavier Worthy, Devonte Smith, Zay Flowers, Roma Dunze, Rashi Rice, Jalen Waddle, Terry McLaurin, DK Metcalf and Chris Olave and. And Dan. I'll just go to the name that made Dave say wow.
- [54:29]
Dave Richard
There wasn't a name that made me say wow. Just how many list of names?
- [54:34]
Heath Cummings
Yes, it's. It's. Rice, I think is currently one of the most difficult wide receivers to rank because he's. I don't believe. I mean, he's obviously not fully healthy yet or he'd be playing football for the Chiefs in the playoffs. And we've got a potential suspension that we expect to happen this season.
- [54:52]
Dan Schneier
Right.
- [54:52]
Heath Cummings
And like Xavier, Worthy's kind of taken the same path that Rice did as a rookie and become a focal point in the offense in the second half of the season. And so I think there's a little bit of question whether Rice will see the same target volume he did at the beginning of this year now that Worthy's more acclimated. How close would you value Rice and Worthy today in Dynasty?
- [55:14]
Dan Schneier
That's an amazing question. I. I was so high on Rice before any of the news happened with suspension and obviously the injury. I'm not going to hold against him because players get injured and they would come back from it. But I loved Worthy coming out, too. We talked about it with Dave when I watched his tape at Texas. He wasn't just the John Ross one trick pony. We're starting to see that with the Chiefs. He's really improved. I would probably have them about where you have them, but I might have Rice a tad bit lower is where I would probably be at with it.
- [55:41]
Heath Cummings
Dave T. Higgins, hopefully back on the Bengals, but we don't really know for sure.
- [55:48]
Dave Richard
I don't think it's happening.
- [55:50]
Heath Cummings
You think that they won't franchise him again?
- [55:52]
Dave Richard
I don't think they'll franchise him again. I think that they're gonna let him roll and there will be a line of teams ready to sign them.
- [56:00]
Heath Cummings
So let's. Like, here's my concern. I think some people look at that and think, oh, T. Higgins is finally going to get to be a go be a number one. I think if he just goes to get the most money, he's probably going to go to a much worse situation. Does he go up or down if he goes to the New England Patriots?
- [56:18]
Dave Richard
So I'm. I'm gonna measure this tier at the same type of range that I said for Jordan Addison. And just to be clear, Jordan Addison does have 10 touchdowns in each of his first two seasons, but he's under a thousand yards in each. So that general range, it all came comes out to like the same amount of fantasy points when, when you look at it, I Think T. Higgins can be 2007 in New England as soon as next year with Drake May, but I don't know if he'll ever be 1310 with the Patriots. I just don't know if he's that dynamic of a wide receiver. Big bodied, perimeter type guy, high volume capability. Yeah, he's got those things but I don't know if he's got. I don't know if he can be like a top 10 receiver in, in the NFL and, and get to that level of 1310 like we would want him to get to and that's why he's in tier 5. So he probably wouldn't even be my favorite wide receiver in this tier. I think Odunze might have a little bit more upside long term. I want to say Waddle and Olave have more upside long term, but it's tough to really envision that.
- [57:32]
Heath Cummings
Yeah, Olave is someone I've pretty much been lower on for the last few years in Dynasty and one of these years he might make me look ridiculous for that. Dan we look at tier six. Last wide receiver tier we'll do today. George Pickens, D.J. moore, Josh Downs, Khalil Shakir, Quentin Johnston, Debo Samuel Jaden Reed, Keon Coleman. I'm assure Quentin Johnson is going to be everyone's least favorite. Who's your favorite wide receiver in this tier?
- [57:57]
Dan Schneier
Dan for me it's George Pickens, the guy you have up at the top. He's the only one I look at of this group and say this could be the alpha X dominant fantasy receiver like a Jamar Chase, who in the right situation with the right quarterback will be a top three, top four fantasy option. I guess you could still say DJ Moore has that upside. I don't personally believe it. Despite having Caleb Williams, who I do believe and tied to him. Just too much competition. Keon Coleman's somebody we've talked about in the past, somebody I'm higher on the consensus but not in that range. So it would be pickings for me. He's shown the ability to win at all three levels even when they start to use him in quick game on those slants and just winning off the line of scrimmage with his release he was able to do that and on some of those he took those slants and then housed them or took them for big gains. He has like post catch upside that is not often discussed when it comes to George Pickens. Just from what I've seen on tape, he's by far the most elite receiver of this group. I'd even put him above the tier four from a talent stamp or tier five from a talent standpoint. Just situation still unknown.
- [58:54]
Heath Cummings
Well that's, I think that's the real risk is like we might be two months from finding out that Russell Wilson has gone to Las Vegas to join Pete Carroll and Justin Fields is George Pickens quarterback for this season. And yeah, he's probably going to see his value even fall from this. Dave Devo Samuel is a guy who has, speaking of fallen, has fallen plenty in Redraft and Dynasty ranks. Does he need a new home in.
- [59:23]
Dave Richard
The NFL or in your tears NFL? Oh no, I don't think he's gonna necessarily get one. Maybe he's a cap candidate, so maybe. But 29 years old, frequently injured. Last year he played through injury. He looked terrible in the second half of the season. Maybe started to get it back a little bit toward the end of the year. I, I know you're not showing tier 7, but names like Godwin Devonte, Tyreek Hill, Mike Evans, I know the shelf life isn't long for them. It's not long for Debo Samuel either. And I'd still rather have all those other wide receivers than Debo Samuel and Dynasty.
- [60:03]
Heath Cummings
Let's get to the tight end position. And like one of my favorite things, and I will say like if Dave mentioned we didn't get to Tier to Tier 7, we haven't got to Tier 7 in any position. You'll be able to see Tier 7 on CBS Fantasy probably next week, maybe later this evening if some of those get put up. But we will have written content with all of my tiers so if anybody you're missing, you'll be able to see that later on the website. But one of my favorite things about tiers is they're so much better than rankings except Dan at the tight end position because the first three tiers are exactly the same as rankings. Brock Bowers in a tier of his own. Trey McBride in a tier of his own. Sam Laporta in a tier of his own. Especially for Dynasty purposes, let's assume it's not a super not a. No, it is super flex, but it's not a not a tight end premium league. How high is too high for Brock bowers and Trey McBride.
- [61:04]
Dan Schneier
So wait, repeat, rephrase that for me. How high overall are we talking? Yeah, in a non premium, non super flex. And I was having this debate I believe with with Adam about Redraft. So for Dynasty I think his value becomes even greater. It goes back to like part of My old Strat, like two, three years ago, Heath, when I evaluated Kyle Pitts's film out of Florida, I thought he was the next big thing just based on his tape. And I was like, this is the guy I'm gonna make aggressive plays to get in Dynasty, because if I get him, I get such an advantage on a weekly basis at the tight end position. Now that's become Brock Bowers, who, by the way, had better tape than Kyle Pitts and was an even better version of that. If you watch him at Georgia and actually look good in Year one, unlike Pile Kyle. But Kyle Pitts was okay. I think he had a thousand yards, but not like Bowers. So I'm gonna double down on the strategy, Heath, and I'm gonna say this. I think you could take him at the back end of round one.
- [62:00]
Heath Cummings
Brock Bowers is my number 12, non Cubian dynasty.
- [62:05]
Dan Schneier
We have the same exact idea this.
- [62:06]
Heath Cummings
Trey McBride is number 24 for me and Sam Laporta is somewhere in round four. Let's just jump ahead, Dave, to, to tier three and tier four, because I think that's where actually it's going to matter to people. I do put Laporta in a tier all of his own. But then Tier 4 is where it really feels like, man, is it just win now or bust? I have Sam Laporta by himself in Tier 3. Tier 4 is Mark Andrews, George Kittle, TJ Hawkinson and Dalton Kincaid. I think people know what Kittle is. He's your Derrick Henry of the tight end position. If he remains himself, he's a league winner. If he falls off, well, he's the age where he could fall off. Where are you at on TJ Hawkinson? Are you holding last year against him at all? Do you think he bounces back? Because he was a pretty clear top three tier guy for a long time.
- [62:56]
Dave Richard
And I, I, on one hand, I, I don't want to hold last year against him, but on the other hand, how do I vouch for a guy who might be third on the Vikings and targets with a new quarterback, you know, if I'm gonna poo poo Jordan Addison, say, well, we know what his ceiling is going to be. I kind of feel like we know what the ceiling is going to be for TJ Hawkinson. Yeah, and we saw it in 2023. I would not spend tier four type capital on TJ Hawkinson. 28 years old. That's two years older than Dalton Kincaid, third fiddle in the offense. We don't know for sure if he's Ever going to be his old self. There's just, it's a great offense to be in and I'm glad he's there but there's too many questions to put him up this high. I don't think he belongs. I think he's a little too, he's in a tier too high, if not two tiers.
- [63:49]
Heath Cummings
So I was going to ask Dan to make the case for Dalton Kincaid but it sounds like. Because I, I could understand saying that Andrews and Kittle should also get their own tier and maybe like tier one through 12 should just be 12 tight ends but I don't. Dave, do you have a case to be made that Dalton Kincaid is more desirable than T.J. hawkinson? Because I have like there's nothing that Dalton Concatenate has done that's been encouraging in the NFL.
- [64:12]
Dave Richard
And this is another player that had great film coming out of Utah and was an interesting player in the draft and he, you know, high draft capital to go to Buffalo and for whatever reason the Bills just have not committed to him. We saw it now. Seven 91 targets as a rookie, 75 and three fewer games in his second season. Four total touchdowns. Doesn't seem to be the explosive seam buster right. That we thought that he would be. I, I don't think he belongs in tier four either. I, I think giving him the benefit of the doubt after 29 regular season games and a couple of playoff games would be a mistake on draft day. I think I'd rather get Kittle and then either draft another tight end in a tier 5, tier 6 or just wait a year to get another tight end or pick somebody off the waiver wire if I'm building out a dynasty team.
- [65:09]
Heath Cummings
There are looks like 67 players Dan since the start, 67 non running backs since the start of 2023 that have seen at least 150 targets. 150 targets over the last two years. Here are the players who have averaged fewer yards per target than Dalton Kincaid. There's a few of them. Dalton Schultz, Tyler Conklin, Jake Ferguson, Evan Ingram, David Najoku, Elijah Moore, Wondale Robinson. And then this is going to make you terribly sad. Garrett Wilson. Just like the, the, the most in if. Because I hear some people say that Dalton Kincaid's really not been given a chance yet. So we don't really know. He's just been really inefficient with the chances that he has gotten. Do you have a lot of hope still for Dalton Kincaid?
- [66:04]
Dan Schneier
This I think is a big blind spot in the way I build out dynasty. And just the way I approach fantasy, because I looked at that list and I said to myself, I would not trade a single one of those. I would not trade Dalton Kate for a single one of those players listed above him. And then I heard Dave's analysis and I was like, this is a blind spot because you have to at some point put away what you saw on tape at college and understand that. And I'm not saying this is going to be the case with Dolphin Kincaid. I want to make that clear. It's only two years into his career.
- [66:32]
Heath Cummings
Right.
- [66:32]
Dan Schneier
But it is possible that the speed of the game is different for him. The tape I watch of him at Utah against that level of play, those defenses he faced, every. It's a similar situation with Zach Wilson when he played at byu. It's a very similar. Reminds me of a similar thing. It's so different than the end of the speed of the NFL game. And I haven't seen on tape that player against NFL competition. Now, I think there's other issues. I don't think this Joe Brady system is good at all for Dalton concate literally at all. And it's gonna be here and it's gonna stay. There's nothing. No sign that he's not going to be back next year. Maybe he'll get a head coach up, I don't know. But you know, if he's back, which I think he will be, that's bad news for Dalton Kincaid. This is not how I envisioned them using him when they drafted him. This is not at all how Utah used him in their offense. So this, in this system, with what I've seen on tape so far, from an NFL standpoint, I have to adjust and I have to just look at this thing like there's enough evidence because this is. Otherwise I'm going to fall into the same trap I fell into with Kyle Pitts. And I'm already envisioning it happening again and I don't want it to happen again. So I, I don't want to defend Dalton Gay right now.
- [67:34]
Heath Cummings
Okay, you don't have to defend Dalton Kincaid right now.
- [67:37]
Dave Richard
You don't have to. But let me ask you this. Have you seen enough of Tyler Warren to make a decision on Warren who's going to be a rookie this year in the NFL versus Kincaid?
- [67:46]
Dan Schneier
Yes. I would take Warren over Kincaid for sure.
- [67:49]
Dave Richard
I think I would too.
- [67:50]
Dan Schneier
Warren reminds me of somebody brought. That's not my comp. But ever since I heard it, I cannot get out of my head a little bit like Jeremy Shockey and Jeremy Shockey was such a fun player when he was in his prime with the Giants and a little bit with the Saints.
- [68:04]
Dave Richard
Yeah. Total bully.
- [68:06]
Heath Cummings
How could we have ever guessed, Dave, that it would have been a Giants tight end? How could we have ever guessed Dan? Dave, thank you for being so generous with your time. Thank you to everybody who was active in the chat. Appreciate Thomas with those fantastic graphics. I don't know what Dan is talking about and just, just really appreciate you guys supporting the show. We're going to wrap this up again. You can go find all of my tiers for quarterback, running back, wide receiver on tight end. They'll all definitely be up by next week. Other than that, we will talk to you next Tuesday.
- [68:51]
Symbiotica Representative
Paramount Podcast.
- [68:55]
Dan Schneier
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