I Wouldn't Be Surprised If ... (05/19 Fantasy Football Podcast)

Summary

Fantasy Football Today: Episode Summary – "I Wouldn't Be Surprised If ..." (May 19, 2025)

Hosted by Adam Aizer, with analysts Dave Richard, Jamey Eisenberg, and Heath Cummings, "Fantasy Football Today" from CBS Sports delves deep into the latest trends, player analyses, and strategic insights to help fantasy managers dominate their leagues.

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1. Introduction and Casual Chatter ([01:40] - [02:36])

The episode kicks off with the hosts exchanging banter about their weekend activities and light-hearted discussions about sports teams they support. Adam Aizer humorously mentions rooting for the Florida Panthers, highlighting the personal connections among the team members. This segment sets a friendly and engaging tone for the episode.

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2. Brock Purdy: The Underrated Quarterback ([04:12] - [08:50])

Key Discussion Points:

• Performance Analysis: Brock Purdy's performance last season is dissected, emphasizing his efficiency and consistency. Dave Richard asserts, “In both Redrafting and Dynasty, I think he might be the most underrated quarterback in terms of ADP and consensus ranking” ([05:45]).

• Fantasy Value: Purdy’s passing and rushing statistics are compared to top quarterbacks like Patrick Mahomes and Joe Burrow. Despite a slight dip in passing production, his rushing yards saw a significant increase, making him a solid fantasy option.

• Consistency and Reliability: Heath Cummings remarks on Purdy being a "floor play," indicating his reliability in fantasy lineups. The consensus among the analysts is that Purdy is a safe and valuable quarterback choice, potentially outperforming his current rankings.

Notable Quote:

• Dave Richard: “Purdy has outscored Jared Goff and Baker Mayfield and Dak Prescott... So he's a top 10 quarterback for me both in Redraft and in Dynasty” ([06:21]).

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3. Quarterback Rankings: Justin Fields vs. Anthony Richardson ([40:58] - [43:41])

Key Discussion Points:

• Upside Potential: The conversation shifts to Justin Fields and Anthony Richardson, exploring their potential to break into the top six quarterbacks in fantasy rankings due to their dual-threat capabilities.

• Statistical Projections: Adam Aizer presents hypothetical stats for Fields, illustrating how his rushing prowess could compensate for passing yards, projecting around 22 fantasy points per game ([43:11]).

• Team Dynamics: Heath Cummings highlights the importance of team support, noting that both quarterbacks have unique upside based on their rushing abilities and the offensive systems they are part of.

Notable Quote:

• Dave Richard: “They have a level of upside that no one else there does” ([41:08]).

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4. Saquon Barkley and the Tush Push Debate ([17:00] - [25:42])

Key Discussion Points:

• Performance Concerns: Jamie Eisenberg expresses concerns about Saquon Barkley’s workload and potential decline in performance, referencing historical precedents where high-touchdown running backs faced injuries and reduced output the following season.

• Rule Changes Impact: The potential banning of the "Tush Push" play is debated, with Dave Richard suggesting it could affect Barkley's touchdown opportunities. However, Adam Aizer counters that quarterbacks like Jalen Hurts would still find ways to score rushing touchdowns.

• Fantasy Implications: The analysts discuss whether Barkley should remain a top-10 running back, weighing his heavy workload against his past productivity. Heath Cummings points out Barkley’s high number of touches and the risk associated with it.

Notable Quote:

• Jamie Eisenberg: “I'm not ranking him outside the top 10... I'm nervous about Barkley and having a significant step back in terms of total production” ([18:52]).

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5. Rookie Running Backs: Top 20 PPR Potential ([26:08] - [29:14])

Key Discussion Points:

• Six Rookie Running Backs: Jamie Eisenberg outlines six rookie running backs (Genti Harvey, Hampton, Travion Henderson, Judkins, Caleb Johnson) who could break into the top 20 in PPR scoring, provided they secure prominent roles in their respective teams.

• Individual Assessments: Each rookie's potential is evaluated based on team dynamics, competition for carries, and offensive schemes. Travion Henderson’s situation with a revamped Patriots offensive line is a focal point, with Heath Cummings expressing optimism about his impact.

Notable Quote:

• Jamie Eisenberg: “They're all banking on a successful rookie on a prominent rookie class coming into the NFL” ([26:15]).

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6. Listener Shout Out and Charity Highlight ([15:35] - [18:22])

Key Discussion Points:

• Inspiring Story: The hosts share an uplifting story from Mike in St. Helens, England, who battled non-Hodgkin's follicular lymphoma and is now in remission. Mike’s email underscores the podcast’s impact during his tough times.

• Charitable Efforts: The podcast emphasizes their annual "Draft-a-thon" fundraiser for St. Jude, aiming to surpass six-figure donations. The hosts encourage listeners to contribute and support the cause throughout the summer and draft season.

Notable Quote:

• Adam Aizer: “Mike... wants anybody else going through that to know that he did it. You can do it too” ([17:00]).

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7. Rookie Wide Receivers: Potential Top Performers and Busts ([36:08] - [61:53])

Key Discussion Points:

• Travis Hunter vs. Brian Thomas Jr.: The analysts debate whether Travis Hunter could outperform Brian Thomas Jr. as the leading receiver for Jacksonville. While Jamie Eisenberg sees potential challenges, Dave Richard remains cautiously optimistic.

• Trey Harris Prediction: Adam Aizer makes a bold prediction that Trey Harris could emerge as the best rookie wide receiver in fantasy, arguing that quarterback play and team situations could elevate his performance despite skepticism from other analysts.

• Justin Jefferson Analysis: The team scrutinizes Justin Jefferson’s past performance, questioning whether he might experience a mild bust this season. Factors such as a dip in target volume and changes in team dynamics are considered, with Heath Cummings defending Jefferson’s consistency and potential.

Notable Quotes:

• Jamie Eisenberg: “I wouldn't be surprised if Trey Harris is the best rookie wide receiver in fantasy” ([48:18]).
• Heath Cummings: “I wouldn't be surprised if Justin Jefferson is a bust” ([60:19]).

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8. Final Thoughts and Conclusions ([61:53] - [64:00])

As the episode wraps up, the hosts reflect on their bold predictions and acknowledge the inherent risks in projecting rookie performances. They emphasize the importance of monitoring quarterback play and team dynamics to validate or challenge their forecasts.

Closing Remarks:

• Adam Aizer encourages listeners to engage with the content and stay tuned for future episodes.
• The hosts playfully tease each other while highlighting upcoming discussions and maintaining the podcast’s entertaining and informative vibe.

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Conclusion: This episode of "Fantasy Football Today" provides a comprehensive analysis of key fantasy football topics, from underrated quarterbacks like Brock Purdy to the potential decline of established stars like Saquon Barkley. The discussion on rookie players offers valuable insights for managers looking to capitalize on emerging talent, while the heartfelt listener story underscores the community and supportive nature of the podcast. Whether debating the impact of rule changes or predicting breakout performances, the hosts deliver a rich and engaging episode packed with actionable strategies and thoughtful commentary.

Notable Quotes Recap:

• Dave Richard ([05:45]): “Purdy has outscored Jared Goff and Baker Mayfield and Dak Prescott... So he's a top 10 quarterback for me both in Redraft and in Dynasty.”
• Jamie Eisenberg ([18:52]): “I'm not ranking him outside the top 10... I'm nervous about Barkley and having a significant step back in terms of total production.”
• Heath Cummings ([41:08]): “They have a level of upside that no one else there does.”
• Adam Aizer ([17:00]): “Mike... wants anybody else going through that to know that he did it. You can do it too.”

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For more in-depth analysis and expert insights, tune in to "Fantasy Football Today" every Wednesday on Paramount Podcasts.

Transcript

[Adam]

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[Dave]

This is fantasy football today from CBS Sports.

[Adam]

What a play.

[Heath]

Can you believe this?

[Adam]

No, I can't.

[Dave]

It's time to dominate your fantasy league.

[Adam]

This is gonna go the distance.

[Dave]

Now here's some combination of Atom, Dave, Jamie and Heath.

[Adam]

Very excited for today's show. I wouldn't be surprised if I wouldn't be surprised if the Florida Panthers win the Stanley Cup. Did you know that there is one professional sports team that every single person on this podcast, including our producer and apparently Dan Schneier, we all kind of root for to varying degrees. And they won last night. Let's go Panthers. Welcome to the show, Everybody. Is Monday, May 19th and we have. Yeah, I wouldn't be surprised if. And we're not going to talk about hockey. So I'm very excited for today's show. Everybody, how was your weekend? On a scale of one to ten Heath. Dave. Jamie.

[Dave]

So I haven't talked to you. I'm not talking about my weekend. I coached some basketball. It was a lot of fun. We played. We played better. But I. I haven't talked to you since the Knicks historic series win. And I just wanted to congratulate you. First time in a quarter of a century going to the Eastern Conference finals. I wouldn't be surprised if the Knicks win the NBA championship. I wouldn't be surprised if the Celtics win 15 games next year.

[Adam]

It's an exciting time to be me. Yes. Knicks, Panthers, the Yankees. One. Two out of three. It's been. It's been great and fantasy and. And we're all drafting, right? We're all doing our eliminator drafts, right?

[Dave]

Yeah, I just finished my first one. I've got three still going.

[Adam]

Oh, wow. Okay. Those are. How many head coaches do you have?

[Dave]

Zero.

[Adam]

Okay. Because you can start. Coaches, punters. It's crazy league.

[Dave]

I took a punter in the 16th round of the first one that finished just because. I mean, I don't really understand the punting, scoring, but I thought I might as well take a punter.

[Adam]

Dave, how was your weekend? One to ten?

[Heath]

It was fine. Let's call it a seven.

[Jamie]

Jamie had a fun debate with some gambling touts about win totals because I was looking at a head coach, so I asked their opinion. So I was deciding between Sean McVeigh, Todd Bowles, Sean Payton and Dan Quinn and their win totals. Like, I looked at a few places all around, like nine and a half, so it's like, basically like the same. So I didn't take either any of them because I figured they'll all be. Oh, Demiko, Ryan's lost there. I figured they'll all be. Be there the next time I pick. Or one. One or two of them will be there next time I pick. So who would you have gone to that group? Sean McVeigh, Todd Bowles, Sean Tayton, Dan Quinn or D' Amico?

[Adam]

Ryan McVeigh Quinn. Dave doesn't want to answer.

[Heath]

Yeah, I'm tuning out. This is ridiculous.

[Adam]

Come on. Oh, geezer.

[Jamie]

I was. I was leaning actually Bulls just because of the division.

[Adam]

Yeah, I could see that.

[Heath]

What's the scoring for coaches?

[Adam]

Oh, now you care.

[Dave]

I think. I think a win is worth 15 points, a loss is worth negative 10, and a tie is worth 20 points.

[Adam]

Oh, wow. Could be a lot.

[Dave]

Nobody's gonna tie.

[Adam]

Could be a lot of times the NFC South. All right, let's get to our news and notes here. Jamie's not going to draft Kyle Shanahan apparently. But he has Brock Purdy all locked up. Five years, $265 million with 181 million guaranteed. So let's talk about Brock Purdy, who has basically, last year he was basically as good as Patrick Mahomes. He was a little bit one spot ahead of Mahomes per game in four point per passing touchdown leagues, one spot behind Mahomes in six point per passing touchdown leagues. And Purdy was borderline top 12. He was 11th per game the year before. I think he was 6th or 7th per game. So passing production went a little bit down last year for Purdy, especially the touchdown rate. Rushing production went way up. Who's got Brock Purdy as a top 12 quarterback this year?

[Jamie]

I mean, he's like 13th or 14th for me, but I consider him a number one quarterback.

[Dave]

So I, I feel like, and this is true in both Redrafting and Dynasty. I, I think he might be the most underrated quarterback in terms of ADP and consensus ranking. I was looking at this this morning because I knew we were going to talk about him. Since he became a starting quarterback, there are five quarterbacks in the NFL that have played at least 20 games. So we're not counting the rookies from last year, guys who have been in the league for at least two years and scored more fantasy points per game than Brock Purdy since he became a starter. Those five guys are Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Joe Burrow, Jalen Hurts and Patrick Mahomes. Purdy has outscored Jared Goff and Baker Mayfield and Dak Prescott and Kyler Murray and Justin Herbert and all those guys. So he's, he's a top 10 quarterback for me both in Redraft and in Dynasty.

[Heath]

Doesn't he feel like more of a safe play than a high upside play?

[Dave]

I, well, I think the, the really big question that I hope we get the answer to this year because he's been insanely efficient, which I think a lot of people probably just give Kyle Shanahan credit for, which is fine. He's now staying with Kyle Shanahan as long as Kyle Shanahan's there.

[Adam]

Right?

[Dave]

But that 49ers defense I don't think is going to be a strength of the team. And so if we see a career high pass attempts from Brock Purdy and he maintains anything close to the efficiency he's had in his career, he does have, I think he has, I hate to say it, maybe threw the ball 600 times, I think he could have a Joe Burrow Season.

[Adam]

Oh, wow. I. Yeah. I mean, look there, there are some, some interesting numbers when you just look at the passing numbers. Right. Because last year he averaged 31.4. Well, San Francisco averaged 31.4 pass attempts per game, which is high, high for them under Kyle Shanahan. Remember, Christian McCaffrey missed most of the season. Even when he played, he wasn't really getting that many carries. They were 22nd in past attempts per game. They were 32nd the year before. But even when they were 32nd and past attempts per game, he was the number six quarterback overall and per game last year, I believe. Yeah, 20, 23, not last year. So the efficiency is going to be really good because even with Jimmy Garoppolo, they were among the leaders in yards per attempt. I think my big question is the rushing he rushed for or we just look at his 17 game pace. He was on pace for 366 rushing yards and six touchdowns. The year before. Brock Purdy was on pace for 153 rushing yards and two touchdowns. It wasn't like he excelled in yards per carry. He just ran a lot more. You know, I have no idea if he's going to keep that up. Maybe we'll just put it somewhere in between maybe 250 rushing yards.

[Dave]

I've got him at 296 and 4 this year, which saying that maybe seems like it's maybe a little bit high. So I may, I may drop that down just a tad. But yeah, 250 to 300.

[Adam]

Okay. All right. But we know he's gonna be, we know he's gonna be good. We think. I feel like pretty safe saying he's going to be good. Brock Purdy. Right. I mean, can't really say I'm being droppable.

[Dave]

It's.

[Heath]

It's the floor play.

[Adam]

Yeah.

[Heath]

He's gone over 20 fantasy points per game three straight years. I think as high as like 22 and a half. And so that's. That, that's reasonable. That's okay to draft somebody and get you through some weeks as your starting quarterback. And if the efficiency stays the same while the passing volume goes up, you'll be thrilled to draft them. But there are a lot of quarterbacks that have that type of like draft value to them. High floor, questionable ceiling. So I don't think prioritizing Brock Purdy, especially with his receiving core changing, I don't know if that's the plan that you should have going into drafts.

[Adam]

Would you guys draft Justin Fields or Brock Purdy?

[Heath]

I'd go Fields.

[Dave]

Yeah. I think the answer is yes.

[Heath]

But if you could only have one.

[Dave]

He's saying I'm not drafting Justin Fields by there's some rule that I can only draft one quarterback. Sure.

[Heath]

But no, I can't. I'm gonna definitely draft Fields and Birdie someone might be.

[Adam]

Yeah. No, here's the scenario. You haven't drafted a quarterback yet. It's round 10. They're both there. You don't necessarily think you're getting the other one later in the draft because they're. They're both very high in the rankings. Right. So you have to decide maybe you'll get both but you have to decide. But per your Fields, what do you do?

[Jamie]

Fields. Because I think like a Fields Jordan love pairing a few. I mean you know I'm a little higher on Prescott than, than both these guys but I probably can get Prescott in this range too. Like those, those type of quarterbacks to me I think are. Are there versus if Fields hits he's going to be better than all these guys.

[Heath]

It's Fields plus find another safe play and Purdy absolutely qualifies.

[Dave]

My question might be is Anthony Richardson also still available?

[Adam]

Yes.

[Dave]

So like if I could take Purdy and then just take one of Fields or Richardson next round, I'd be thrilled.

[Jamie]

Yeah, that's also a great way to play it too.

[Adam]

Hey, you're going to talk.

[Jamie]

I think Drake may falls in that category also because he's going to run too.

[Adam]

You're going to talk more about Fields and Richardson a little bit later. Heath. Next news item. Adam Schefter thinks the NFL could ban the Tush push next week at the owner's meetings. And Saquon Barkley led all running backs with nine carries that went to the one yard line. Five of those nine carries were followed by Tush push touchdowns. We've got a Saquon Barkley. I wouldn't be surprised if coming up later, Ian o' Connor, who wrote a book about Aaron Rodgers was on the radio and said that he thinks Rogers could join the Steelers by the end of the month. Meanwhile, NOLA.com's Jeff Duncan says the Saints are not considering Aaron Rodgers. Jordan Renan of ESPN thinks that Jackson Dart will sit his entire rookie season if all goes well. But I think everyone's lol ing at the all goes well part. And Dave, what'd you think of the Caleb Williams kind of eye opening story that came out? I think on Friday that he originally.

[Heath]

Didn'T want to play for Chicago because that's where quarterbacks go to die. I think every quarterback that goes to Chicago thinks that at some point and then they eventually do what Caleb did and think to themselves, well, I can be the one who's different.

[Adam]

Yeah, but also that, like, just the.

[Heath]

Reason why he can't be the one who's different. Especially with Ben Johnson designing plays.

[Adam]

I'll just read from the ESPN article. At times, Williams said he would watch film alone with no instruction or guidance from the coaches. Quote, no one tells me what to watch. Caleb Williams told his dad, I just turned it on.

[Dave]

I'm sorry. But you're like, you're a professional quarterback in the NFL.

[Jamie]

Like, so what?

[Dave]

I, I understand if the coaching could have been better, but you didn't watch film in college.

[Adam]

I mean, there's the room and you.

[Dave]

Just don't know what, don't know what to do.

[Adam]

No, I think the coaches really should be there as a rookie quarterback to help him with these concepts.

[Dave]

There was a, I think it was Kurt Warner that kind of sounded off on this a little bit on social media over the weekend and basically said, nobody, nobody told me how to watch film.

[Adam]

Oh, they should.

[Jamie]

I wonder though, what the, the context is. Like, was he told, go watch some film and then we'll circle back and we'll talk about it, or was it, hey, it's your film session time when typically I would hope in college there was a coach working with him, quarterback coach or something like this. This is kind of damning on both sides. It's damning on the bear side of things. Damning on his side of things, you know, that, that he is using this as an excuse and also like, where's the quarterback coach? Where's the office coordinator? You know, I, I would be shocked if Ben Johnson is not having dedicated personnel him on down to be spending as much time as possible with Caleb Williams, but also expecting Caleb Williams, hey, go do 10 hours of film session between now and Sunday or 20 hours of film session or 60 hours, you know, I mean, look, nobody's going to be Peyton Manning. You know, I, I there, that's the extreme. Or a few guys are going to be Peyton Manning. But to, to sit here and say that he can't, to Heat's point, you know, watch things on his own and still be successful as a result of it. What he's seeing and what he's not seeing, like he's got to go hand in hand.

[Adam]

Yeah, fair. All right. Well, it was an interesting story and hopefully happier times are ahead for the Chicago Bears, who are trying to get a dome stadium I'm sure he would love to play in that. What's coming up on FFT Dynasty this week?

[Dave]

Dan Dan will be on tomorrow. We're doing a rookie rankings refresh, talking about some of the things that have changed in my rankings due to the people I've talked to and the rookie drafts that I've been a part of. And then I'll have Matt Okada on on Friday.

[Adam]

All right, listen, we're going to take a break on fantasy football today. We'll get into our main topic. I wouldn't be surprised if but we got a very important shout out to give when we come back from this commercial. We'll be right back. This episode is brought to you by Amazon Prime. From streaming to shopping, prime helps you get more out of your passions. So whether you're a fan of true crime or prefer a nail biting novel from time to time, with services like Prime Video, Amazon Music and fast free delivery, prime makes it easy to get more out of whatever you're into or getting into. Visit Amazon.comprime to learn more.

[Dave]

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[Adam]

Welcome back everybody. So we got an email over the weekend from Mike from St. Helens, England and this is a good time to remind everyone it's, it's May 19th, not too, you know, far in the distance. Here is is Draft a thon where every year we raise money for St. Jude which is obviously an incredible charity. And the last couple of years we've hit hit six figures so we want to do that again. But Mike wrote us an email telling us, he said in July 2024, after feeling ill for a few weeks, I was diagnosed with non Hodgkin's. Non Hodgkin's follicular lymphoma. Hope I said that right. Blood cancer. I've had 10 sessions of chemotherapy and gone through some really hard times over the past 10 months. But on Friday I was given the all clear and I'm in remission. And he wrote it to us say that you know, we've been, he's been a Everyday listener basically since 2020. And you know, he was just listening to us during his tough time. So we appreciate that. But, you know, I just wanted to give a shout out to Mike, who crushed cancer and wants to be. He wants to be kind of an inspiration for anyone else in that situation. As I asked him, is okay if I give you a shout out on the show? So he just wants, you know, he wants anybody else going through that to know that he did it. You can do it too. And we're going to raise a lot of money for St. Jude this summer and into draft season. So just be. Be around for that and hopefully you're in the position to help donate this, this upcoming summer and all the way through August for our draft.

[Jamie]

A thon, unless I missed something. Has, has he talked about. He's. He was there again recently to, to St. Jude and just the experience that you went through, going through and seeing the facility?

[Dave]

Yeah, I think, I think I might have referenced a little bit, but no, it's every time that I go there and I've been fortunate enough to go, I think four times in the last two years. It really is amazing. Not like to see the facilities and they continue to build new buildings and, and explore new frontiers, but also to hear. I think a lot of people think we're raising money for St. Jude, so we're helping this specific group of kids that are able to go to Memphis and get their treatment for free. And that's true, but also that they're. The research they're doing there and then they don't keep that all to themselves. They share it with the world. You're. You're not just helping kids that make their way to Memphis, but you're helping kids all around the world who are batt. Battling childhood cancer. So great group of people and they're doing a lot of great stuff and it's really motivating to go there and see it and then come back and try to help find ways and creative ways to help raise money for them.

[Adam]

That's good stuff. Thank you, Heath. And yeah, again, thanks for the email, Mike. And Mike, just the last thing he said to me after I made sure it was okay for him to, for me to read his email on the air. He said, keep up the amazing work, keep picking on Dan and kick his arse this year in tennis. So I intend to do that.

[Dave]

Mike, you can do all but one of those things.

[Adam]

I'll try. You're right. I can't keep up the amazing work. All right, let's let's go to. I wouldn't be surprised if Jamie responded to the text message first. So you get to go first. Jamie says, I wouldn't be surprised if Saquon Barkley is not a top 10 running back and if six rookie running backs crap, crack the top 20, crack the top 20 in PPR. Right. But let's start with Saquon Berkeley. You wouldn't be surprised if he's not a top 10 running back. What?

[Jamie]

I'm nervous, you know, I mean, you look at the history of the two things that he's dealing with, a lot of work and 2000 yard rushers. And so he's coming off a season where he had over 430 total touches, including the playoffs, which is just, you know, so much work for a guy that's 28 years old. And then you look at the history of 2000 yard rushers. There's eight of them, two of them got significantly injured the following season. Terrell Davis and Derrick Henry. There's a 500 yard decline on average for all of these guys. And so if you're Talking about losing 500 rushing yards, you said it before, he could have more touchdown potential if the touch push is banned. But I don't think even if the touch push is banned, they're getting away from quarterback sneaks, so they just might not be pushing from behind. There's still going to be a lot of Jalen hurts rushing touchdowns even if the tush push quote unquote is taken away. And then you had the nail in the coffin before we even had the show is that he's going to be on the Madden cover. Oh my God, that's the kiss of death. But in any event, I just look at the situation. I'm not ranking him outside the top 10. This is obviously a, a show of what could potentially happen. But I'm nervous about Barkley and having a significant step back in terms of total production. So when he's on the field, he's going to be great. He may miss some time. Again, just based on the workload, you never want to forecast injuries, but he's just somebody that he, he's, he's. I'd answer this question for another publication for a magazine. Who's the first round pick? This carries you the most and it's for me, it's easily Saquon Barkman and.

[Dave]

We'Ve seen a little bit of this in his own career. Yeah, like we, we saw in 2022. I just did the math here on my computer, so I probably got it wrong, But I think 377 touches including somehow two playoff games for the Giants and the next year efficiency just, it was a bad team. This is going to be a good team. But the efficiency crater. He missed a few games with injury. I, I think that's right. It's just, it's really hard to project or rank him low enough to show that fear and what was.

[Jamie]

Yeah, and again, I don't have him ranked outside the top 10. He's still a first round pick for me. I'm probably going to be one of the lower people on him. I, I look, you know, I'm lower than the two of you guys. So right now he's sixth overall. He continues to fall for me, you know, closer to the back end of round one. It's hard to you know, justify drafting Genti ahead of him. A chan ahead of him in terms of running backs have right behind him. And then the other receivers are also some, some nerve wracking players as well. But I'm just concerned, I'm just really concerned that you know the, the workload became too much and the again the history of those guys, they just don't get better. And it's clearly hard to do because they're coming off amazing seasons. But just, just worried about the overall production for Barkley next year.

[Heath]

It was 482 touches that he had.

[Jamie]

Carries, right?

[Heath]

Postseason, yeah. Touches, yeah.

[Jamie]

Fourth 436 carries total for seasons.

[Adam]

All right.

[Heath]

436 carries, 482 touches. That includes the postseason. Heath talked about one of two years that Saquon Barkley came off of a heavy workload year and mentioned the drop in production in 2022. He said it. 377 touches. He averaged 15.9 PPR points per game. That is not a top 10 fantasy running back. He had 352 touches as a rookie in 2018. He finished his second year with three games missed 1441 total yards, eight touchdowns, 17.9 PPR points per game, which is still good. But not first overall pick good.

[Adam]

Yeah.

[Heath]

We've started doing some fan mock drafts. Saquon's gone number one overall in one of these mocks. So people are thinking about him. Think about this 28 year old running back, almost 500 touches. They're taking him with the first pick. Makes me nervous. I kind of, I, I don't kind of agree with Jamie. I definitely agree with Jamie. It makes me want to draft Will Shipley with one of my late picks because he would be the guy that would fill in for Saquon, but I, I can't expect him to do what he did last year all over again.

[Adam]

I guess if I'm just, just nitpicking here, it's kind of semantics because I understand the overall point Jamie's making, but I cannot see a scenario where he doesn't finish top 10. Because even that season, you know, after the Giants made that incredible playoff run where they beat the Vikings and lost the the Eagles. He was cute. He was what you said you gave the points per game. He was RB9 per game that year and that was on the Giants. So.

[Jamie]

But let me, let me ask you this though. If, if I had said he's not going to be top five, that's not very bold.

[Adam]

No, I agree. I know what you're saying. Yeah, I totally get what you're saying. There was also this. I, I gave this stat months ago, I think, but I looked at running backs who finished top four in PPR over the last five seasons and their percentage of team carries inside the five yard line. Saquon Barkley. Of 20 running backs that have finished top four over the last five seasons, Saquon Barkley last year had the lowest percentage of carries inside his team, inside the five yard line for his team. Do you know who had the second lowest.

[Jamie]

Of top four running backs?

[Adam]

Guys who have finished top four over the last five seasons. That's 20 running backs. I'm talking about the percentage of team carries inside the five yard line. Barkley had the lowest at 37.1% of his team's carries. There's another running back who had 43%. Who was it?

[Dave]

Jameer Gibbs last.

[Adam]

Jameer Gibbs was Jameer Gibbs last year. And, and not only that, I looked at the seven running backs out of 20 who had fewer than 60% of their team's carries inside the five yard line. Those two guys had by far the fewest catches. Barkley had 33 catches, Gibbs had 52. The other guys, if you don't get a big chunk of your carries inside the five yard line, they, they all had 67 or more catches. So Barkley has this low catch total, doesn't dominate near the goal line, and he managed to be the number one running back. I think Gibbs overtook him in week 18, but he managed to be the number one running back per game last year, number two overall. So there, there are just some statistical pitfalls there. Okay, that being said, he only scored how many, how many touchdowns did he score last year? Barkley, he could still score more. He scored 1315 overall in 16 games. That's not bad. Okay. Do you. So don't you.

[Dave]

One last thing on Barkley, like this whole tush push thing. And I do think that it's dumb that it's legal to push a player forward and illegal to push a player backwards. So I think they should ban it. But I still think Jalen Hurts is probably going to be the best if not one of the top three quarterbacks at quarterback sneaks whether someone's pushing him or not. The guy's a quarterback who squats £600.

[Adam]

Yeah.

[Dave]

Like he's still going to score a lot of rushing touchdowns from the one yard line.

[Jamie]

But it's also like you eliminate the. The push from behind. They're still so good at getting leverage on the offensive line. The offensive line is still good. He's so elite at this. Like they're not. They're not changing their philosophy if the pushing from behind is banned.

[Adam]

Yeah, exactly. Yeah. All right. Jamie said he. I wouldn't be surprised if six rookie running backs crack the top 20 in PPR scoring. Genti Harvey. This is how you have it ranked?

[Jamie]

Yes.

[Adam]

Genti Harvey, Hampton, Travion Henderson, Judkins, Caleb Johnson.

[Jamie]

So the first four are already ranked in the top 24. For me. I think Henderson is at 23. So he's the lowest of the number two running backs based on the numbers that we use to qualify. You know, top, top 12, top 24. Judkins and Johnson are just behind that group. So I'm not really stretching where I believe it to be already. You know how these guys can finish and you could see a path to success for all of these guys. Genti's easy. Harvey looks like he's going to be a three down running back for the Broncos playing for Sean Payton. That's going to be awesome. Hampton's a little bit one. Hampton and Henderson are the ones I think that are tougher to see the easy path to success because there are guys that they're going to be competing with that have somewhat of a track record. Henderson, we know what Josh McDaniels does with pass catching running backs. And the guy in front of him is Ramandre Stevenson, who hasn't exactly been a dominant running back and has a fumble history. So you can see him being not just the third down back but also. Or not just passing those back, but also the featured guy there. And then in terms of, you know, Judkins and. And Johnson, they could be the leading rusher on their team right away and obviously have goal line work in front of them as well. So look, it's, it's banking on a successful rookie on a prominent rookie class coming into the NFL. For the most part, these guys ended up in great situations and the ones that are in some, you know, muddled situations, you know, even with, with Amari Hampton, wouldn't shock me by the middle of the year if his talent just, you know, pushes, you know, Najee Harris to the bench. Similar to what happened in Pittsburgh last year when Jalen Warren got healthy toward the end of the season, he was getting some more work. So just like the setup for all these guys for the most part. And I think they all have the chance to be really successful in the rookie seasons.

[Adam]

Okay. I don't really, don't think there's much to say about that. Who would be, who would be the most surprising for you? I guess for Jamie it's I guess Caleb Johnson since he's the lowest ranked of the six. But who would be the most surprising for you? Start with Jamie, then Dave, then heath of those six running backs to finish top 20 in PPR.

[Jamie]

I kind of lump Judkins and Johnson together. So one of those two just based on again, their, their potential lack of work in the passing game. So I don't like to bank on touchdowns so much and I think those guys are going to have to score probably close to 10 touchdowns to. To be inside, safely inside the top 20. And they have still some, you know, competition that you got to be somewhat concerned about.

[Heath]

Dave, I gotta rank it this way, but I think Judkins is the, the one that I would be most concerned about just based on the offense that he's in. I think it's a little bit of a dicier situation than what Caleb Johnson has in Pittsburgh and we, we know that he's not a breakaway runner and he, he has to get all those touchdowns and not sure that he's going to be in the position to in that Browns offense.

[Dave]

If we include the possibility of doing this in any format, then I don't think it would be that surprising at all if any of them did. But in full ppr, I'd be most surprised by Johnson and then Judkins and non ppr, I'd be most surprised by Henderson.

[Adam]

You know, we haven't talked about with Henderson really is the Patriots had, you know, by the metrics and just by what everyone says, the worst or one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL last year, just drafting Will Campbell and signing Morgan Moses change that so much. I don't know. I still think that the Patriots might have a really bad offensive line. I just wanted to bring that up because I don't know how that we've talked about that much.

[Heath]

Well, they also added Bradbury from Minnesota.

[Adam]

Oh, they did.

[Heath]

So they've upgraded 60% of the offensive line. I don't think it can get worse. They could be one of the offensive lines that goes from terrible to below average. And that just makes it easier for Henderson to make an impact in the passing game.

[Adam]

The Vikings, by the way, released Bradbury, so I don't know how good he is.

[Dave]

Yeah, he's not good.

[Adam]

He's not good. He's not good. All right, let's go to Dave's. Dave's. I wouldn't be surprised if the first one is the Patrick Mahomes, right? I wouldn't be surprised if Patrick Mahomes finishes as a top two fantasy quarterback.

[Heath]

We One of like the. The trendy things to talk about this off season is the. The quarterbacks that have great receivers to throw to and how they. They must be great for fantasy because they've got these outstanding pass catchers. Travis Hunter goes to Jacksonville. We immediately put stock in Trevor Lawrence. George Pickens goes to Dallas. We immediately put stock back in Dak Prescott. Well, look at who Patrick Mahomes has to throw to, provided that everybody's healthy. It's Rice, it's Xavier Worthy, it's Marquis Brown who's healthy. It's whatever's left in Travis Kelce that's formidable. That's a really good receiving core. And we saw it even without Rice and with with Hollywood Brown not playing nearly as much as maybe we had expected. Those last six games of the year, three in the regular season, three in the playoffs. Xavier Worthy went crazy and Patrick Mahomes averaged 25 plus fantasy points per game over those six games. That's the Mahomes that I think we can get back to having. They didn't make any major changes in their run game. Their offensive line is also being rebuilt. So that's something that we do have to keep in mind. But I know Mahomes has been terrible the last two years for fantasy. It wouldn't surprise me in the least if the receiving core that he has now coupled with the running game that he has now, gives him the platform to throw a ton and to just go bonkers statistically and kind of re establish himself as one of the MVP candidates, one of the best throwers in football, and he'll be the guy that we kick ourselves over because we're, we're taking. Not that they're going to be bad, but like Jalen Hurts and Joe Burrow. But we could have had Mahomes. Or maybe you waited too long. Someone else in your league got Mahomes and you ended up with Brock Purdy and Justin Fields when you could have had Patrick Mahomes getting you 25 fantasy points per game.

[Adam]

Does anybody think that the Chiefs need to have that? The Chiefs need to regress on defense because in the last two years they've ranked second and fourth in points per game allowed, which is the best in the Mahomes era. Mahomes, his best seasons have come with them being never bad on defense, but more kind of like average or, or just good. But does anyone think that the Chiefs having basically an elite defense is preventing Mahomes from being an elite quarterback?

[Dave]

Partially. Also, Jacob Gibbs has been doing his great cut ups on Twitter of like every quarterbacks throw from a clean pocket over 20 yards. Yeah, and you'll, you'll see on there, and we've talked about this a couple times before, but there's like three fantasy points per game that are lost on deep throws down the sideline to Xavier Worthy where it was like the year with Trevor Lawrence and Calvin Ridley in the end zone where they had 16 almost touchdowns or something. Yeah, like a lot of that might just clean it up too, but yeah, the defense is a little bit of a problem.

[Adam]

He completed, Mahomes completed three of 17 passes of 20 or more air yards to Xavier Worthy. And we outlined it, we showed the screenshots. There could have been so many fantasy points there. Okay. Dave's second one is. I wouldn't be surprised if Tyler. Okay, he's got a double dip here. Tyler Warren leads the Colts in receptions. Colson Loveland finishes third on the Bears in receptions. I think the, the Warren one is definitely Boulder, so you can start with that.

[Heath]

I love the opportunity that he's got. I obviously love the talent. This is a guy that can help a inferior quarterback complete more passes in the short range. He did it at Penn State. He might have had a better quarterback at Penn State than he'll have in Indianapolis this year. But this, this is a. An outstanding athletic moose that can add yards after contact and yards after the catch just like he did in college. I think on his runs last year it was five contact per rush and on catches it was 6.9. So it's like you're guaranteeing yourself an extra five yards every time he touches the ball. I also just I. I don't know why they paid Michael Pittman as much as they did. Something tells me that they're starting to sour on him a little bit. The guy on the Colts that might actually threaten Warren the most to lead the team in receptions is Josh Downs because he's so explosive, and he's another winner in the short area passing game. But Warren, to me, is a guy that can just line up anywhere. He can make plays happen after the catch. He did it a ton in college. I think he can do it again. You can get him later on draft day than Colson Loveland. Loveland's getting picked first, and to me, it's not necessarily about talent because I think Loveland's the better pass catcher, like naturally. And also further down the field, it's just a rougher situation for him because he's sharing the field with so many other talented pass catchers. I'm not sure if that's going to happen to Warren in Indianapolis. The other thing I'll tell you is that Steichen's track record with tight ends before he got to Indianapolis was really good. He had Hunter Henry in LA with the Chargers. He averaged, I want to say it was like 10.5 fantasy points per game in PPR. Not great, but not terrible. Goddard averaged over 11 PPR points per game in each of two years with Steichen. Steichen's been trying to find a tight end to. To be a guy that they can win with in the middle of the field, and he hasn't been able to do it all. You know, all the names, Mo Ali Cox and Kylan Granson, like these. These. They stink. He couldn't do anything with them. Now he's got a certified stud that he can win within the middle of the field, which is something that Michael Pittman couldn't do all the time. So I could see Tyler Warren having a slew of targets every single week, being a factor inside the 20, not at the 5, and being the leader in receptions for Indianapolis as soon as this year.

[Adam]

Okay, fill in the blank. Jamie, I'll start with you. If Tyler Warren leads the Colts in receptions, then blank.

[Jamie]

Josh Downs and Michael Pittman stink.

[Adam]

That's kind of where I was leaning to. Yeah, Heath. If Mike. If Tyler Warren leads the Colson receptions, then.

[Dave]

I'm too low on him in my tight end rankings.

[Adam]

Does anybody want to say. Does it. Does that mean anything for Richardson or Joe Jones?

[Jamie]

No, you know, they're. They're posting some fun highlights of both these guys. The. The team X site, Twitter site. Man, Richardson had a bomb in practice. Just you see the Armtown question.

[Adam]

Did they go to slow motion when he threw the ball and then speed it up when someone caught it? Most.

[Jamie]

Yes.

[Adam]

Overplayed, overdone, annoying. Just stop it with that. I hate that. Oh, stop it with that.

[Dave]

And I think the reason I say it doesn't tell us anything about the quarterbacks is Jaden Reed led the packers in receptions last year with 55.

[Adam]

Yeah.

[Dave]

So if Tyler Warren leads the team with 55 receptions, then the quarterbacks are awful.

[Heath]

If he leads people points per game. If, if Warren gets that. You'd sign up for that right now with a late round pick?

[Dave]

Well, I don't think he's probably going to average quite as many. Like jaden Reed averaged 11.4 yards per target. I'd be surprised if warren average is 11 point. Probably not gonna happen per reception.

[Jamie]

I think the fun thing about both these rookie tight ends is there, there's so much upside, you know, and, and you could see the pitfalls, you know, with the target crunch for the Bears and obviously Caleb Williams needs to take a significant step forward. And then clearly the quarterback situation for the Colts and that entire passing game, plus there's also some other mouths to feed there. You know, it's, it's kind of funny that I think we're, myself included, as I just said, you know, dismissing the talents of Michael Pittman and Josh Downs. And Pittman was playing through a pretty significant back injury from what we were told, you know, toward the end of last season and in the off season. And Josh Downs, I think it was Jacob, you know, saying how good he could be this year. Even in the current, you know, scheme of things, knowing how we performed last year, a lot of that had to do when, you know, Richardson wasn't there. But you still see the path to success if these quarterbacks, you know, whichever one is the starter plays better. So they're, they're just, you know, I don't want to get caught up and I hope people, you know, our audience doesn't get caught up in thinking that one of these guys is going to be Brock Bowers. It's just, it's not as. As much draft capital was. Was put into these guys in the NFL draft as first round talents. Like there's, there's not the same path for these guys right now. Clearly that could change. Injury to the Bears receivers, trade maybe. Same thing with the Colts. Richardson that much better. You know, as Dave said, Steichen's been really good with tight ends. Ben Johnson's obviously been really good with tight ends, you know, so there's a lot to like about their, their track record there as, as coaching staffs. But again, Bowers just landed in such a great spot. Rookie tight ends just don't typically do that, you know, as good as Kyle Pitts was as a rookie, he didn't score touchdowns. He had a thousand yards receiving but did not find the end zone, you know, so there's just, you know, I think you got to take it a little bit with a cautious approach. Like you probably want to draft two tight ends. If you draft one of these guys, you probably want to just wait and see how this plays out in your draft and not, you know, reach for them. Like, Jacob's obviously somebody who's really excited about rookies. If you go back to the draft that we have where he took them ahead of Laporta, I can't see myself ever doing that, you know, taking him ahead of Laporta or Hawkinson or Najoku or those guys. Like, I just think that's a mistake.

[Adam]

Okay, we're going to take a break and I just, just, I want to bring up one last thing real quick for Jaden Reed. Jaden reed had like 170 rushing yards last year. So just that whole comparison with Warren and Reed.

[Heath]

Warren will get some runs, but he's not going to get that many yards.

[Adam]

All right, we got. I wouldn't be surprised. Ifs on Anthony Richardson, Travis Hunter, Justin Jefferson, and another rookie wide receiver that we might be sleeping on. We'll be right back on fantasy football today. Ryan Reynolds here from Mint Mobile. I don't know if you knew this, but anyone can get the same Premium Wireless for $15 a month plan that I've been enjoying. It's not just for celebrities. So do like I did and have one of your assistant's assistants switch you to Mint Mobile today. I'm told it's super easy to [e-mail].

[Heath]

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[Adam]

All right, Heath, you are up. You would not be surprised if Anthony Richardson or why do I keep saying his name wrong? Anthony Richardson or Justin Fields is a top six quarterback.

[Dave]

This one probably is the least like, nobody I think would be that surprised if one of these guys did that. But I thought looking at our consensus quarterback rankings where we have Fields at QB14 and Anthony Richardson at QB19, it's worth mentioning that both of these guys have not just top six upside. I'd be surprised if one of them was top four. But they have that type of upside because of what they can do with their legs. We've already seen Justin Fields run for a thousand yards in a season. Anthony Richardson could have a Jalen hurts type season where he leads all players in rushing touchdowns with what, his red zone rushing ability? You don't have to draft these guys as starters, but when you're looking at them compared to the other guys in the QB2 range in our rankings, they have a level of upside that no one else there does.

[Adam]

Okay, anyone thoughts? Richard Center Fields being a top six quarterback.

[Jamie]

I mean, yeah, he's right. It's just, you know, will. Will the passing numbers sort of, you know, support what those guys need. Clear that's been lacking for Richardson and even Fields. You know, the year that he ran for a thousand yards was 20, 22, right before he had the, the better passing season in 2023. I think the, the nice part about these as, as he's just, you know, alluded to and we sort of touched on earlier is the where, where you can draft these guys. And that's the best part about it, you know, is these are two of the guys that we'll probably look back on and say if they hit, why you shouldn't be drafting quarterbacks early because if they do get to the level that they're capable of, they're just going to shatter their adp. And so that's the, the fun part about it. I'll have Richardson ranked a little bit higher once he solidifies himself as a starter. I have him just sort of, you know, in a cautious range of Daniel Jones potentially stealing the job, because I think that's possible. But I think for Fields, the fact that they're so supportive of him, paying him, you know, and everything, that they're saying that they're not going to, you know, give him a short leash, which I think is great, he could Be phenomenal.

[Adam]

I'm going to give you some stats. What do you think about this for let's say Justin Fields, 3678 passing yards, 24 probably 3678 passing yards, 29 total touchdowns, 800. That would be a 821 rushing yards. Like you could see more rushing yards and fewer passing.

[Heath]

What's happening here?

[Adam]

What's that?

[Heath]

Is he playing 11 on 10 to make that happen?

[Adam]

Well, he's, he's been on a thousand yard rushing pace before.

[Heath]

Oh, he had 1100 rushing yards in 2022.

[Adam]

Right. And so, so if, if you go with 821 rushing guards, you say well that's too low. Let's add 200 rushing yards. And then you say well passing passing yards is too high. Let's subtract 300 passing yards. You're still coming out ahead there. 29 total touchdowns. If he plays 17 games, I don't really think that's crazy at all because he could definitely have double digit rushing touchdowns. The numbers I gave were Lamar Jackson in 2023, he did that in 16 games. He was the number five quarterback overall that year. So it's honestly not that hard to see fields getting to 20. It's 23.6 points per game which was, which made him. Yeah, QB4 per game. This is kind of a down year for quarterbacks. I don't know, it just, it doesn't seem like so unrealistic for Fields to average more than 23 fantasy points per game. Even in 6 point per passing, 6 point per passing touchdown leagues, he's never.

[Heath]

Averaged 200 yards per game passing.

[Dave]

So what was the passing number?

[Adam]

3678.

[Dave]

So if you just look at his healthy games from 2023, he left one game really early and had 58 yards passing. He had 12 other games where he pretty much played the whole game. He was on pace for 3547 passing yards.

[Jamie]

Okay.

[Adam]

And 23 touchdowns and six is in fact 29 rushing and 29 total touchdowns. Exactly what I said, 866 rushing. Dude. His numbers in 2023 were almost identical now that I'm looking at it. Except for interceptions were higher. They're almost identical to Lamar Jackson's. Like they were, well, that Jackson in 16 games, this was the 17 game pace of Fields were similar to Jackson in 16 games. All right, so let's call it 22 fantasy points per game, something like that. But he's, he's always a top 12ish guy. So he just has to have his best season. Okay. Anyway, next up for Heath. Heath says I would not be surprised if Travis Hunter is better than Brian.

[Dave]

Thomas Jr. What I'm not saying he's going to be. I don't rank it that way. And I think that there's room for both of these guys to be top 24 wide receivers in this specific offense. We've seen it before. But one thing that's kind of struck me over the last couple of weeks of talking to all these people who have rookie wide receiver models and rookie wide receiver film grades, you're pretty hard pressed to find somebody who thinks that Brian Thomas was a better receiver prospect coming out of college than Travis Hunter. And he could end up in the. Hunter could end up in the Chris Godwin role in this offense and Thomas could be the more of the deep threat that like Mike Evans. And if that happens, then Hunter might see more targets per game than Brian Thomas. He might be better after the catch than Brian Thomas and he might just be the best wide receiver in Jacksonville at this point.

[Adam]

Are you just until further notice, assuming that Travis Hunter is going to be more or less a full time wide receiver. I know he's gonna play some defense, but is he gonna play most of the offensive snaps?

[Dave]

If most means more than like set a percentage?

[Adam]

80.

[Dave]

80 might be a little high. I'd probably, if I could have a 10 point range, I think I'd probably go 70 to 80.

[Adam]

Okay.

[Dave]

I don't think actually Brian Thomas didn't play 80 of the snaps in a game until week nine last year.

[Adam]

He was in the 70s early and then. Yeah, then he was close to 90 for much, much of the second half.

[Dave]

He had two games over 90. He was in the 80s most of the second half.

[Adam]

Yeah. But if you look like, let's take weeks nine on, he averaged 88% of the snaps. So. But first half, yeah, first half was probably, let's see, weeks one through eight, he averaged 70% of the snaps.

[Dave]

So if you're telling me that instead we're going to see Hunter in the 60s, the first half of the season, in the 70s, the second half of the season. I'd believe that, yeah, it's going to.

[Adam]

Be hard for him to beat Thomas. But no, that's, that's the point of the exercise is. Wouldn't be surprised if. And I think that's a great context. He's a terrific player, you know, and we hope that he's on the field a lot. He's going to be a real tough call in dynasty all right. And then anybody want to add anything to that? Travis Hunter being better than Brian Thomas Jr. No.

[Dave]

Okay.

[Jamie]

It should be fun. Hopefully both these guys are awesome.

[Adam]

So let's get to mine then. You know what? I'll just stay on the rookie wide receiver path here. I wouldn't be surprised if Trey Harris is the best rookie wide receiver in fantasy. Chargers second round pick Trey Harris. I wouldn't be surprised if he's the best wide receiver in fantasy. Truth be told, I would be kind of surprised. But I'll make the case. I think it would have to be kind of a disappointing year for rookie wide receivers, and it's not hard for me to see him being better than Matthew golden. I think McMillan and Hunter are the two that, you know, give me big concerns. He's going to be better than a Booker? I assume so. Look, I think this would have to be. Hunters is playing more defense than we wanted, and then McMillan just doesn't really thrive on Carolina. But I just think you have this great opportunity with a great quarterback. Will they let him be a great quarterback? You know, I think the draft, the. The drafting of Amarian Hampton really hurts this, this possibility of Trey Harris being the best rookie wide receiver. But will they let him be a. A great quarterback? Justin Herbert, Will they let him throw enough? So, anyway, I just want to bring this up when I look at wide receivers who finished as the number one rookie wide receiver but weren't drafted in the first round, weren't necessarily expected to be. They mostly have one thing in common, and that is very good quarterback play. So you're talking about Ty Hilton in Andrew Luck's first season, Keenan Allen with Philip Rivers, Michael Thomas. They had Brandon Cooks there at the time, but Drew Brees had an amazing year. Juju Smith Schuster. Juju Smith. Schuster was the number one rookie wide receiver in 2016. He was fourth on the Steelers in targets behind Antonio Brown, Le'Veon Bell, and Martavis Bryant. But Ben Roethlisberger was really good. You could say Pukinakua. Puka Nuku went into the cup, got hurt. Right, but he's another one. And who am I forgetting here? Yeah, no, that was it. It was. It was Hilton. Keenan Allen, Michael Thomas. Juju Smith, Schuster, Puka Nakua. They did not go into the year looking like the number one target on their team, but they did have a good quarterback, and they ended up scoring the most fantasy points among rookie wide receivers. So, guys, I wouldn't be shocked if Trey Harris is the best rookie wide receiver in fantasy. And I Do think people are sleeping on him a little bit?

[Jamie]

It's a bold take.

[Dave]

It's. Yeah. If this was a bold prediction show, I would like the take a little bit better. I, I would. You just have to hope that the Ravens coaching staff is going to do something they didn't do last year and really haven't done in their history. But Chargers or not, the Ravens, basically.

[Heath]

No, he meant to say Ravens.

[Adam]

Greg Roman. Yeah.

[Dave]

Yeah. Like last year, the top three wide receivers and targets on this team were 112 targets, 91 targets, 65 targets. So it's like I, I have them. Him and Igbuka projected very similarly. Harris has a higher target share, but the pie is just much smaller.

[Adam]

So how much is it? I'll just give you this real quick, Dave. You can, you can jump in on this because you've been high on Justin Herbert. Justin Herbert in his last. I think it's after their buy, he averaged like 31 pass attempts per game. And that's not great, but it's better. But it's not going to be, you know, amongst the bottom. It'll probably be something like 22nd in the NFL, so. And it didn't necessarily just have to do with when J.K. dobbins was hurt. I looked at those games, too. They just threw more after their buy, which was an early buy. So. Yeah, Dave, go ahead. I interrupted you.

[Heath]

I don't think Trey Harris is a complete receiver yet. I mean, he, he effectively ran two routes the most of the time that he played at Ole Miss, and there were plenty of plays where he didn't run a route at all, a passing play where he didn't run around at all because the read was away from him on the other side of the field. I think he can be a good contributor for the Chargers offense as soon as this year, but I think we're making a big stretch to say that he's going to end up being even close to the top rookie wide receiver. Like a lot's going to have to go wrong with other wide receivers across the league for Trey Harris to be that guy. It's got. No, to me, it's got less to do with how often they throw or who else is there, and much more about who Trey Harris is as a receiver right now.

[Adam]

But there's only, there's only two. To me. Like maybe you throw golden in there. There's only two or three wide receivers that are. That look like they're definitely set up for more success. And I could see it going wrong for all of them. Hunter would shock me if he were worse than Trey Harris, but it would have. It would have to be that he's playing more defense and less offense than he wanted, and that's in the cards. McMillan.

[Heath]

We. We haven't been told that. No, the. The world hasn't reported that.

[Adam]

Not yet, but it's in the cards.

[Heath]

Hanging out of Jacksonville is Travis Hunter is going to be focused on offense first.

[Adam]

Yes, that is true. But. But again, we don't know that he's going to play more than 70 of the snaps.

[Heath]

That's fine, but it's not like they're gonna flip it and turn them into a cornerback on 70 of the snaps and a receiver on 30 of the snaps and it's.

[Dave]

Go ahead, Jamie.

[Jamie]

No, no, I was gonna say, I don't. I don't think Adam's arguing necessarily that he. He's walking in better than the two guys in. Easily in front of him.

[Dave]

Right.

[Jamie]

You're.

[Heath]

No, no, he's just saying you wouldn't be surprised.

[Adam]

Six guys were drafted in front of Trey Harris. But I don't think it's. I don't think it's asking a lot for him to be better than a Buka, Jaden Higgins and Luther Burden.

[Jamie]

So, yeah, I think the fun conversation is really, who's third? And I get where you're going with this about who's, you know, that, that you really like Trey Harris, but really it's like, who's the third best rookie receiver? So golden is in the, the scenario that, you know, could be great, but they have, you know, the track record with Matt Laflores, as he just said, you know, what Jaden Reed's target was last targets were and catches were last year. Like, that's the leading receiver for the Packers. So not hard to see him be the best receiver on his team. But to see him be the third best rookie wide receiver, let alone the best rookie wide receiver, is a very tough ask for what this offense is probably looking at a book is in the crowded situation. Burden's in a crowded situation. I think Jack Bash deserves to be mentioned here, you know, just based on his, you know, chance to be potentially the best receiver, not pass catcher, but receiver for the Raiders and even Jaden Higgins, you know, for what the, the Texans have and what they've done with C.J. stroud, you know, the guys opposite Nico Collins, clearly, Tank Dell was, you know, fantastic for, for a stretch before in his rookie season and, and had some good games last year, too. So there's a lot of guys, I think that could be mentioned here as the third best. Will Trey Harris be the best receipt, best rookie wide receiver? I mean, that would be, I think, just such a huge pitfall for, you know, at least the first top. The top two guys and then potentially I think the other guys as well. I don't know if that's as much as Harris being that great. I think it's more of those other guys failing, more so than, than him stepping into this role on a team that's not going to throw the ball to the level of some of these other guys. Maybe even the Panthers too. Kyle Williams, another one that probably should be mentioned too. Yeah. But yeah, no, I was gonna say, like the Chargers just don't feel like without a McConkie injury that Harris can, can be in a secondary role on this team and be better than all those guys.

[Dave]

And it's not, I think like the way you framed the top two guys and the potential pitfalls for those guys is fine. Like maybe we don't have a top 40 rookie wide receiver this year.

[Adam]

Yeah.

[Dave]

But I think he's in a, like, he's behind golden, but maybe golden is disappointing also. And then he's in a coin flip situation with Jack Besh, Luther Burden, Jaden Higgins and Kyle Williams. There's like six guys in that range that he has to win a 50, 50 against.

[Adam]

Look, if, let's. If we went back in time to one year ago today and I had said Brian Thomas is going to score the most fantasy points among rookie wide receivers, obviously I take the blame for being pretty.

[Heath]

We had a whole bit about that.

[Adam]

I took the. I was very low on Brian Thomas. I never, I never thought that was going to happen. But Brian Thomas did end up being the highest scoring rookie wide receiver. It didn't look like it was in the cards at all. So these things happen. If I had said Justin Jefferson, remember I was actually very high on Justin Jefferson as a rookie before I dropped him after, after two weeks. You know, he, he, he came. Justin Jefferson came in as the number two receiver with a good quarterback. That is what Trey Harris is. He is the number two receiver. They are starving for a good wide receiver on that team and an outside wide receiver because Lab McConkey is a slot receiver. Trey Harris has a really good opportunity and he has a quarterback edge over some of the guys that were drafted ahead of him. Some of the guys that he's going to be competing with as a rookie.

[Dave]

The last thing is you made the. I've been wanting to make this point for a while. So you opened up.

[Adam]

Yeah.

[Dave]

You made the point of the 31 pass attempts per game for Justin Herbert in the second half or whatever that stretch was, 31 pass attempts per game in 17 games is 527 passes. They threw 510 last year. So even that pace was one more pass per game than their season long toad bowl. Like 527 pass attempts per game is not going to get it done.

[Adam]

No, I mean that's what Brock Purdy averaged last year. So if you have a good quarterback throwing 30.

[Dave]

Justin Herbert's never been as efficient as Brock Purdy.

[Adam]

No, but he's a good, he's, he's a good quarterback. If you have a good quarterback throwing 31 passes a game and there are only two guys on the team getting significant targets, there's a path for Trey Harris to have a good rookie season.

[Jamie]

I, I just one thing you, you said that I think is sort of relevant here is that, correct me if I'm wrong, the Herbert pass attempts increase coincided with Dobbins going down.

[Adam]

It's not. No, it's not.

[Jamie]

Same time.

[Adam]

No, I, I mean I can give you. That's in my notes here. He threw 36, 23. 30, 33 and 31 passes in five games without Dobbins or with Dobbins leaving with an injury. So he wasn't, he was basically right at the same. Yeah, it didn't coincide. All right, next one for me, last one for the show is I wouldn't be so surprised if Justin Jefferson is a bust. I'll call it a mild bust here, but I just looked at two of our only fans drafts. He went as wide receiver four seventh overall in one of them. He went as wide receiver three fourth overall in one of them. And what I think people may not realize about Justin Jefferson is that he didn't really have that great of a year last year. He averaged about three or three and a half fantasy points fewer than he did the previous two seasons. He was great, but only had 153 targets in 17 games. And we saw a pretty big drop in his target per route run rate when TJ Hawkinson returned. So when it was Hawkinson, Adamson, Addison and Jefferson, Jefferson was still great. I can't see him being any worse than a second round value or even a late first round value. But he's, I want to say he's wide receiver five or six for me. I, I definitely like Chase, Lamb, Puka and Nico better than him. And then after that I'd have to think about St. Brown versus Jefferson. But I just don't see myself drafting a lot of Justin Jefferson guys because that target per hour run rate, run rate went down and I think they threw 35 touchdowns last year and Sam Darnold actually was pretty good. Are they really gonna like. I can't, I just can't sit here and say McCarthy's gonna be even as good as what Darnold did last year. I still think it's an unknown. I think he has the most uncertain quarterback situation of those top six wide receivers. So I wouldn't be surprised if Justin Jefferson is a bust.

[Heath]

I mean that's where your argument should start is with the quarterback, not with the target per route run stat. We have no idea what McCarthy is going to be like on the field and if he can be anything better than a game manager and that might be all that they ask him to do to begin the year. But this is still a receiver that elevated every quarterback that he played with, including in games when he had a backup quarterback on the field. And he's still going to get a lot of plays dialed up for him in Minnesota. So it's really hard to see him being a big time bust. Would I be surprised if it happened? Yeah, I would.

[Adam]

I mean, okay, that's, I just, I think it was important for me to bring up that, that Justin Jefferson last year, 18.6 PPR fantasy points per game and he was at 22, 21.5. I, I oversold it a little bit. He was 21.5 and 20.4 the two previous years and 18.6 with a. Tying a career high in touchdown catches. So I think even based on last year, he wasn't as good as what he was in the, in the Kirk Cousin era, Cousins era. And they didn't throw as much and their defense is kind of like the Chiefs. Their defense got elite last year. So I just want to bring that up. You know, if you're. He better do. He better do better than, than 18.8 points per game. If you're drafting Justin Jefferson with a top five pick, I just want to.

[Jamie]

Say you got 18.8.

[Adam]

If I drafted with a top five pick, yes, I would. I want 20 points at least from my top five picks.

[Dave]

Well, if he's 8.1, 8.8 and you call him a bust at the end of the year, we're going to roast you.

[Adam]

I just a mild bust and it's.

[Dave]

Also like I'm, I have a real hard time with. I'm not sure this first time starter quarterback can be as good as Sam Darnold. I, I, Sam Darnold had played 66 games before he got to Minnesota and had 63 passing touchdowns, 56 interceptions, and averaged 6.7 yards per attempt.

[Adam]

I'm aware he was awful.

[Dave]

The, the Vikings made him.

[Adam]

I get it.

[Heath]

At least Arnold had experience. I'm not arguing the other way on this at all. But the one thing that Darnold did have was 66 games of experience, whereas JJ McCarthy has like one and a half preseason games max.

[Adam]

So someone says Jefferson is QB proof and I agree he is QB proof. But I just want to put that in perspective. If you're drafting him as the third or some, some people might draft him as the second wide receiver off the board. I think that might be a mistake because he is amazing. But like, I think he's got a little bit of a Julio Jones things here where he's never scored more than 10 touchdowns receiving touchdowns in a season. And if you want the guy to be the number one receiver, he's probably going to have to score 13, you know, is he, could he have that kind of season? I, I don't, I mean, he's good enough to do it, but I don't see the Vikings throwing 40 touchdowns. Like, it's not like he doesn't have the touchdown upside. I think of, of Chase. Obviously no one's taking out of Chase. I'm rambling here, but yeah, I just want to bring it up. He, he wasn't, I don't think he was top five pick good last year, but he was number six wide receiver per game last year. Two of the guys ahead of him were Rashee Rice and Chris Godwin. So take that for what it's worth.

[Jamie]

So just, just so we're clear, you're gonna drop Justin Jefferson at some point for Trey Harris.

[Adam]

Trey Harris, 100. Yes. All right, I've made my case. All can make fun of me now. And thank you very much for watching and listening to fantasy football today. All right, for Dave, for Heath, for Jamie, and for Thomas, I'm Adam. We will talk to you on Wednesday with another edition of FFTCA Paramount podcasts.

[Dave]

Get ready to laugh until it hurts.

[Adam]

You're gonna love this.

[Dave]

Novocaine is now streaming on Paramount.

[Adam]

Plus, I've got this condition. I don't feel pain.

[Jamie]

You're a superhero.

[Dave]

Yeah, it's an adrenaline rush of fun.

[Heath]

Oh, this is the best.

[Dave]

And a bloody good time.

[Adam]

Almost forgot the best part.

[Dave]

It's the first great action comedy of the year. Let the magic happen.

[Heath]

That's good.

[Adam]

Looking forward to it.

[Dave]

Novocaine. Rated R. Now streaming on Paramount plus.