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Jaylen Waddle to the Broncos! Are We Out on Malik Willis? Is Bo Nix the Only Winner?
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- [00:00]
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Host
Broncos Is this good for anyone other than Bo Nix? We'll talk about it right now on Fantasy Football Today Express. Welcome everybody. It's the Broncos giving up a first round pick. There's also some swaps, third and fourth round picks. They're getting Jalen Waddle, though. An exciting trade for the Denver offense. And yeah, I'm having a hard time wrapping my head around if this is good or bad for Jalen Waddle. I do have an opinion, but of course I'm curious what Jamie thinks. Jamie, is this good or, or bad? As you look at the trade here, it's Waddle and a fourth round pick going to the Broncos for a first and a third and a fourth in this year's draft. Good or bad for Waddle?
- [01:40]
Jamie
I think it's good, but I don't think it's like great. So I think it's, I mean obviously it's a, it's a quarterback and I think system upgrade because we didn't know what Malik Will is going to do for him. But you know, he was going to get targets. Now he's going to a quarterback who obviously has shown that he can support at least one receiver to a high level. Can you support two receivers to a high level? That was the, the. I think the question that we're gonna have to find out. So I'm gonna lower him in my rankings from where he was. He was right around wide receiver 20. Now he'll probably be outside the top 25. So I'd rather have, for example, Luther Burden. I'd rather have DJ Moore. I'd rather have Mike Evans. I'd rather have Terry McLaurin trying to think like other guys in that range. Zay Flowers is already ahead of him. Garrett Wilson, we talked about already ahead of him. So low in number two receiver. He'd be my favorite Broncos receiver though. So I'll take him ahead of Sutton right now. But that's, that's one. That's close.
- [02:41]
Host
Is it close? Yeah. How do you feel about that? Before you answer, let me just tell everybody to join our bracket challenge. You've got until Thursday morning, basically when the games start Thursday afternoon, Tuesday, join the bracket challenge. It's free, it's fun. Just pick the games. And if you win the, if you win the bracket challenge, you are in the podcast league. Yeah. So is that close between Waddle and Sutton for you?
- [03:05]
Jamie
It's close. You know, Waddle was outside the top 24 as well, so he'll drop down a little bit. I'm sorry, they say Waddle Sutton was outside the top 24 a little bit, so he'll drop down as well. He's a number three receiver, I think now probably more touchdown dependent than he was last season. So I think this is just a scenario where these two guys sort of take away from each other enough, where you don't want to draft them as starters in a two receiver league, but definite starters in a three receiver league. Like this isn't clearly Chase and Higgins. This isn't Lamb and Pickens. Like this is a duo that still has to prove itself. Probably closer to Harrison and Wilson, for example, if you're looking at, you know, wide receiver duo. So I'm, I'm hopeful, you know, I'm hopeful that, you know, Bo Nicks coming off, you know, what shouldn't be a terrible injury where he missed the playoffs, but can get these guys playing at a high enough level where you're, you know, comfortable and confident starting both of them.
- [04:00]
Host
Yeah, I, I think so. Kind of where I'm at on this is looking at Waddle vs Sutton. If you just look at to took their names away and just looked at their profiles, you know, one is going to be 31 years old this year. One's going to be 28 years old this year. You look at yards per out, run target per hour, run rate, you look at Yak Specifically, you look at explosive play rate, Jalen Waddle is either slightly better or a lot better than Cortland Sutton in all of them. The only thing that looking at stats that Cortland Sutton has an edge in Jalen on Jalen Waddle in would be yards per catch by about, oh, just looking at their careers by about a half a yard. So they're almost even there. But then there's one thing, and it's red zone targets and end zone targets, and Jalen Waddle just doesn't get a lot of those and Cortland Sutton does. So that might be something that keeps them kind of close. Sutton, by the way, Waddle, by the way, did have 15 end zone targets as a rookie, so that was a year without Tyreek Hill. But other than that, everything suggests that Waddle is quite frankly, clearly better and three years younger than Cortland Sutton. So it's not that close to me. I mean, it might be close, but I think probably for you too, it's an easy Waddle. It's not like even a consideration for me. Waddle over Sutton. And also with Sutton, like you look at 2024 for Sutton, and he had a great year. He was the number 15 wide receiver overall. He's actually only 21st per game, but almost 1100 yards, eight touchdowns. He had 135 targets in 16 games. He had a 24.6% target share. Scoreland Sutton in 2024, then LA. You know who was second on the team receiving that year? It was Marvin Mims. Second on the team in targets that year was Javante Williams. They bring in Evan ingram. They get 104, I think, targets from Troy Franklin and, And all of a sudden Cortland Sutton, he ends up as wide receiver, 22 per se per game, just like he did the year before, basically. But in a much worse year for wide receivers, he. He gets a 21% target share and just is worse across the board. So I'm, I, I guess what I'm trying to say is, like, if he doesn't have a huge target share, he's not that efficient of a receiver. He's not going to catch that many balls. He does nothing after the catch. I am kind of out on Cortland Sutton. Unless we're talking, I'm thinking right now, late round six, it's got to be.
- [06:33]
Jamie
I think that's a fair range for him. You know, again, we'll see what the rest of this off season looks like for Denver, but you, you feel like this is their big swing. You know, especially giving up a first round pick. So do they maybe try and shop a Troy Franklin, a Pat Bryant, a Mims? I, I'd be surprised if it was Mims, but you know, how much do these other guys factor in? You know, last season it was, it was Bryant and Evan Ingram and we know those two guys didn't really factor in much. Brian had a little bit of a stretch during the middle of back end of the middle part of the year where he was a factor. But I mean, look, they, they, they bring back the same backfield. I don't know, it feels like Denver's going all in after, you know, what was a pretty successful season and we'll see if they can, you know, sort of carry it over to, to this year. So I think that's a fair value for, for Sutton. I'm probably round five of the earliest for Waddle too. You know, I don't think I'm going to go very aggressive in drafting either one of them. It's kind of sort of settle for guys as opposed to reach for guys.
- [07:37]
Host
Yeah, I mean we're about to do a draft right now, by the way. We're going to take a quick break and we will, we're doing a draft actually starting right now and we'll recap it on Wednesday's episode. We'll see where these guys go. We'll also talk about the Dolphins perspective in just a moment on Fantasy Football Today Express.
- [07:53]
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Host
Okay, so the Dolphins, I mean, you know, Bo Nix is a, is a winner here and Malik Willis is a big loser. Who would you rather have if you were drafting right now, Knicks or Malik Willis?
- [09:06]
Jamie
Yeah, it's funny, I was thinking about our conversation the other day with, you know, Malik Willis versus Kyler and I much rather have Kyler. It's probably going to be Bo Nix. You know, you don't get a player like this with the opportunity to get, you know, better as a pastor. We know he's got a little bit of a running profile. It went down from his rookie season to a second year, but this is clearly an indication by Denver. Like they're, they're making the concerted effort to put better talent around him. This is, you know, essentially, you know, two years in a row where they've done that. And Malik Willis, look, I, I love his rushing profile, but my God, the weapons are awful in Miami. And it just really is puzzling when you think about it. Like, why would they go get Malik Willis if they're going to make this move? Because clearly, as the reports indicated, they were considering shopping waddle last year. So you're, you're asking him to succeed in a, in an environment that has such little talent around him. Like they're, they're, they're receiving core right now. The only guy that's there from last year that matters is Malik Washington. They go out, they get two, two out. Well, and Jahan Dotson, like, this is terrible.
- [10:10]
Host
Terrible.
- [10:10]
Jamie
This is absolutely terrible. So I, I think Malik will is going to have a lot of big fantasy games, you know, Feels like, you know, a little bit like Justin Fields last year, except Fields had Garrett Wilson. But you know, you know, what you're going to get from a rushing standpoint like that could win you a week potentially. Like he can probably 14, 15 fantasy points with his legs alone if he scores a touchdown. But aside from that, like, the passing production is going to be so scary. I don't know another way to put it. You know, it's just, it's just hard to, to, to trust.
- [10:40]
Host
It's kind of weird that Bo Nix finished as the number 13 quarterback per game in six point per passing touchdown leagues, number 11 per game in four point per passing time. Excuse me. Yeah, 11. So, so top 13 two years in a row for Bo Nix. It just wasn't consistent for him. He had a couple of big games with four touchdowns.
- [10:58]
Jamie
He.
- [10:59]
Host
A lot of disappointing games, but yeah, this is certainly good news for him. And then for Malik Willis, obviously, I mean, they're going to have to draft someone and then it's just. How excited are we going to be about that guy? They have two first round picks now, but.
- [11:12]
Jamie
Do they though? I mean, you would think that they do, but I don't. I mean, I don't know if they reach. That's the, that's the thing. Like, this is a chance. You build up your offensive line, you build up your, your defense.
- [11:25]
Host
I'm on the clock with the third pick. Should I take Waddle here?
- [11:28]
Jamie
I think that's good. I was actually gonna give you Bonex.
- [11:30]
Host
Can you, can you reset by.
- [11:33]
Jamie
I've been resetting it like four times.
- [11:34]
Host
I'm really sorry. I was totally distracted. Okay, I'll draft now. Yeah, I'll take, I'll take Jamar Chase, but yeah, go ahead. If the Dolphins take a wide receiver in the first round, is that, is that a spot that you, that you want to see a wide receiver go to
- [11:54]
Jamie
long term? Not 2026, you know, but again, clearly an opportunity to get targets. Their, their quarterback is probably going to be whoever they select in 2027 in the NFL draft. And then, you know, we see what Willis looks like and then maybe they move on from him like this. It just, it's a very puzzling signing for, for the Dolphins to make the investment in Wells. I know it's tied to Tua's contract also, you know, so they're out from under their quarterbacks essentially in the 2028 season. But why, why would you do this to Will? If you're Wills, why would you do this?
- [12:24]
Host
Plus, if you're trading Waddle, I don't want to say they're tanking, but they're probably going to be pretty bad. And this is this loaded quarterback class. So you're going to sign Malik Willis Tank, and then be in a position to draft a quarterback, you know, in a very good quarterback class. It's strange and it's, you know, it's. It's weird. It's weird. But. Okay, good luck.
- [12:49]
Jamie
Hey, look, Juan Jenkins maybe nervous about Devon Hn too. I mean.
- [12:52]
Host
Oh, yeah, let's talk about that.
- [12:54]
Jamie
The, the touchdown totals are not going to be there. You know, he's, he's an explosive player. He'll make a lot of plays by himself. We know that. But man, it's, it's tough to say like his, his situation is good too. Like at least you knew with Willis and with, with waddle like that. That's a trio that you can at least score some points with. Like right now, how do they move the ball through the air consistently?
- [13:13]
Host
I remember doing the research on this last year with Camara because we were worried about Camara being on, you know, maybe the worst offense in the NFL. And it didn't necessarily end out end up that way. But I remember Breece hall had a year where he was had a good fantasy season. Jonathan Taylor had a very good had a good fantasy season. I have to look this up. On terrible offenses it is possible to do. You know, for hall, it was a bunch of catches and that's what HN is going to have to he's probably going to have to have at least 80 catches to have a really great season. But yeah, we'll see where he goes did he go, did he go drafted yet in the first six? He did not.
- [13:53]
Jamie
Not yet.
- [13:54]
Host
So we'll see where he ends up going. All right, Jamie, thank you very much. We'll break down this mock draft, which will be very interesting on tomorrow's show with Dan Schneier joining us. And then we're gonna have a mailbag. If you want to submit your questions for the mailbag, email fantasy football cbsi.com that is the letter I fantasy football cbsi.com and we will talk to you tomorrow on Fantasy Football. Today,
- [14:20]
Jamie
Paramount podcasts.