J.K. Dobbins to the Broncos; RBs 9-16 Debates! (06/11 Fantasy Football Podcast)

Summary

Fantasy Football Today: Episode Summary

Episode: J.K. Dobbins to the Broncos; RBs 9-16 Debates!
Release Date: June 11, 2025
Hosts: Adam Aizer, Dave Richard, Jamey Eisenberg, Heath Cummings, and guest Tyreek Hill
Description: In this episode of Fantasy Football Today from CBS Sports, the hosts delve deep into the latest developments in the running back (RB) landscape, focusing on the recent move of J.K. Dobbins to the Denver Broncos and scrutinizing the RBs ranked 9 through 16 in the consensus PPR rankings.

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1. Running Backs Ranked 9-16: Arby’s Consensus PPR Rankings

The episode kicks off with a detailed examination of the running backs ranked 9 through 16 in the consensus PPR rankings. The featured players include:

• Josh Jacobs
• Chase Brown
• Jonathan Taylor
• Bucky Irving
• Ken Walker
• James Cook
• Chuba Hubbard
• Breeze Hall

Notable Insights:

• Josh Jacobs: Highlighted for his consistent performance, Jacobs has finished as a top-six running back per game in two of his last three seasons, especially when his team boasts a strong offense. “Josh Jacobs has been a reliable top-six RB, especially in high-scoring offenses,” notes Jamey Eisenberg at [03:06].

• Chase Brown vs. Bucky Irving: Brown is praised for his RB3 performance from weeks nine through 17 with an impressive 81 catches, whereas Irving, despite being RB6 from weeks 10 through 18, faces questions about his sustainability due to increased competition in his backfield.

• Jonathan Taylor: Despite fluctuating performances and injury concerns, Taylor remains a highly talented RB. “Jonathan Taylor is awesome,” Adam Aizer emphasizes at [03:46], though there are concerns about his workload consistency.

• Ken Walker: His high usage rate (76.1% of RB carries when healthy) underscores his value, but there are worries about potential workload splits and offensive line performance.

• James Cook: Noted for leading in rushing touchdowns while finishing lower in rankings, Cook's dual-threat capability is a double-edged sword. “James Cook is only the second RB in the last eight seasons to lead in rushing touchdowns yet finish lower than RB5,” Jamey points out at [05:32].

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2. J.K. Dobbins Joins the Denver Broncos

A significant portion of the discussion revolves around J.K. Dobbins transitioning to the Denver Broncos with a one-year, $2.75 million deal, potential to exceed $5 million based on performance.

Key Points:

• Valuation Concerns: There’s debate over Dobbins' fantasy value due to his injury history and inconsistent performance. Adam Aizer questions the impact of Dobbins signing on RJ Harvey’s role in the Broncos’ backfield. “If you believed in RJ Harvey, you shouldn't let this sway you too much,” Adam advises at [08:24].

• Competition in the Backfield: Dave Richard highlights the increased competition Dobbins brings, comparing it to other rookie RB additions like Drone Ford and Caleb Johnson, potentially affecting their fantasy outputs. “They all have some level of competition which could be awful for them,” Dave explains at [09:38].

• Fantasy Implications: The addition of Dobbins is seen as both an opportunity and a risk, potentially pushing RJ Harvey down in draft rankings but offering depth and increased pass-catching options. “He’s been only around RB25 in full PPR projections,” Adam adds at [08:24].

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3. Detailed Player Analysis

Josh Jacobs

• Strengths: Consistent high performance, strong in high-scoring offenses.
• Concerns: Potential regression due to offensive shifts.
• Quote: “Josh Jacobs is awesome,” Jamey comments at [03:46].

Chase Brown

• Strengths: High catch volume, solid RB3 performance.
• Concerns: Week-to-week performance variability.
• Quote: “Chase Brown was RB3 per game in PPR from weeks nine through 17,” Jamey notes at [03:06].

Jonathan Taylor

• Strengths: Elite rushing talent, high volume when healthy.
• Concerns: Injury history, inconsistent pass-catching, offensive system dependency.
• Quotes:
  • “Jonathan Taylor is awesome,” said by Adam [03:46].
  • “He hasn’t been as explosive in his last three seasons,” Dave adds at [37:01].

Bucky Irving

• Strengths: High PPR scoring in recent weeks.
• Concerns: Increased competition in the backfield.
• Quote: “Bucky Irving is RB6 per game from weeks 10 through 18,” Jamey states at [03:46].

Ken Walker

• Strengths: High usage rate, potential for top-tier performance.
• Concerns: Offensive line issues, injury history, snap share consistency.
• Quotes:
  • “Walker is around three pick, and I would not take Hubbard in round three,” Dave explains at [46:14].
  • “I see all the positives that you guys see, though, so consider me conflicted,” Heath shares at [48:14].

James Cook

• Strengths: Dual-threat as a rusher and receiver, leads in rushing touchdowns.
• Concerns: Finishing lower in rankings despite high touchdown count.
• Quote: “James Cook is awesome,” Jamey affirms at [05:32].

Chuba Hubbard

• Strengths: Improved performance in 2024, solid PPR scoring.
• Concerns: Previous inconsistent seasons, potential loss of workload.
• Quote: “Chuba Hubbard was RB8 per game. That’s a bit,” Jamey remarks at [04:50].

Breeze Hall

• Strengths: High yards over expected per attempt (though declining), potential as a pass-heavy RB.
• Concerns: Limited touchdowns, offensive system dependence.
• Quotes:
  • “Breeze Hall’s yards over expected per attempt has dropped,” Jamey explains at [05:27].
  • “I think he could still have RB1 potential,” Dave adds at [55:27].

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4. Comparative Analysis: Running Backs vs. Wide Receivers

The hosts compare the RB rankings to the WR rankings to provide context on draft decisions.

Key Insights:

• Dave Richard: “It's easy for me, the guys before JSN, to take them over most of these running backs once we get to the JSN group,” emphasizing the flexibility in roster building at this stage [27:19].

• Adam Aizer: Suggests taking the top tier of WRs first, followed by the top RBs, indicating a strategic approach to drafting based on positional depth [27:33].

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5. In-Depth Spotlight: Jonathan Taylor

A significant segment is dedicated to analyzing Jonathan Taylor’s performance trends and future outlook.

Discussion Points:

• Performance Over Years: Taylor has averaged between 7 to 10 PPR points per game in most seasons, with fluctuations due to injuries and offensive system changes.

• Offensive System Impact: Concerns about pass protection and quarterback decisions impacting his reception totals. “Will they trust him to block on passing downs?” Adam questions at [16:41].

• Potential Outputs: While Taylor is a top-tier rusher, his catch potential is inconsistent. “I think he just is one of those guys that such a great runner and gets so much work as a runner when he’s healthy,” Adam concludes [30:37].

Notable Quotes:

• “Jonathan Taylor hasn't been as explosive in his last three seasons as he was in his first two,” Jamey observes at [37:01].
• “He’s just one of those guys that's such a great runner and gets so much work as a runner when he's healthy,” Adam adds at [30:37].

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6. Risk Assessment and Draft Strategies

The hosts discuss the balance between proven performance and potential upside, especially with younger RBs like Chase Brown and Bucky Irving.

Key Points:

• Safe Picks vs. High Ceiling: Jacobs and Taylor are viewed as safer, consistent options, whereas Brown and Irving offer higher upside but come with more risks.

• Injury Concerns: Players like Dobbins and Walker come with injury histories that could impact their draft value.

• Rookie Competition: The influx of rookies like Drone Ford adds competition, potentially affecting the workload of established RBs.

Quotes:

• “There’s huge upside with Chase Brown and Bucky Irving,” Dave states, balancing the discussion between safety and potential [43:23].
• “If you’re chasing maybe the higher ceiling, Brown and Irving may be better than Jacobs and Taylor,” Jamie adds at [43:23].

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7. Final Rankings and Opinions

Towards the end of the episode, Brian Thomas Jr. shares his rankings, placing Jonathan Taylor and Josh Jacobs at the top, followed by James Cook and Breeze Hall.

Thomas’s Rankings:

1. Jonathan Taylor
2. Josh Jacobs
3. James Cook
4. Breeze Hall
5. Ken Walker
6. Chase Brown
7. Bucky Irving
8. Chuba Hubbard

Host Reactions:

• Heath Cummings: “I like James Cook; he is awesome and too good to fall lower,” expressing confidence in Cook’s consistent performance [63:35].
• Dave Richard: Emphasizes the safe choice with Jacobs over Taylor based on recent performance and offensive stability [38:39].

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8. Closing Remarks

The episode concludes with light-hearted banter about plants and a teaser for the next episode's mailbag segment.

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Conclusion

This episode of Fantasy Football Today offers an in-depth analysis of the current RB landscape, highlighting the strengths and weaknesses of players ranked 9 through 16 in the consensus PPR rankings. The significant discussion around J.K. Dobbins' move to the Broncos and its implications for other RBs provides valuable insights for fantasy managers looking to optimize their drafts and weekly lineups. The balanced perspectives from Adam, Dave, Jamey, and Heath ensure a comprehensive understanding of each player's fantasy potential, making this episode a must-listen for serious fantasy football enthusiasts.

Transcript

[Adam]

This is fantasy football today from CBS Sports.

[Dave]

Wanna play?

[Jamie]

Can you believe this? No, I can't.

[Adam]

It's time to dominate your fantasy league.

[Jamie]

Off to the races and he stays on his feet. This is gonna go the distance.

[Adam]

Now here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie, and Heath.

[Jamie]

What's up, everybody? Welcome to fantasy football today. It is Wednesday, June 11th. Adam, Heath, Jamie and Tyreek Hill here on FFT to talk about some running. I said, just got to keep that streak going. Got to keep that streak going. Don't know if he was going to come up in the show today, but we're talking about RB's.

[Dave]

He's catching passes. Yesterday we talked about that.

[Jamie]

No, it's. It's a miracle news. Yeah, it's great. It's great. He's all in. And then I see this report that Tua Tango Bailoa is focusing on getting the ball out quicker, which. Oh, man, if I had more time to think about this, to. Getting the ball out quicker is like blank. Doing blank. Somebody who already does something really well or often, you know, doing.

[Dave]

Making an error in softball.

[Jamie]

It's like me. Is like me making an error in softball. Yes. There you go. Thank you. What's up, Heath?

[Adam]

Hey, how you doing?

[Jamie]

Good. So today, Arby's 9 through 16 plus, we'll talk about the J.K. dobbins news. And we have breaking news. Hopefully nothing's broken. LOL for Brian Thomas, who just moments ago left practice with a shoulder injury. Arby's 9 through 16 in the consensus PPR rankings are Josh Jacobs, Chase Brown, Jonathan Taylor, Bucky Irving, Ken Walker, James Cook, Chuba Hubbard, and Breeze Hall. We will talk about them. Would you like some running back fun facts, guys?

[Dave]

If we say no, will you not tell us or you just gonna tell us anyway?

[Jamie]

I will respect the no if you say no.

[Dave]

I would never say no. But I just. You always ask these questions like, you know, Dave will always say, hey, do you want to know about his blah, blah, blah? And you'll say, sure. And then you'll send like a message like, make it quick.

[Jamie]

Yeah, you want me to make it.

[Dave]

Really want to know? But just be nice to him.

[Jamie]

Okay. All right, here's some running back fun facts at this time of. Well, no, not even at this time of year. In August, Gus Edwards had a higher ADP than J.K. dobbins. So. So there's that. Okay, we'll see who has a higher ADP now that Dobbins is on the Broncos between him and Harvey. All right, now onto Arby's. 9 through 16. Fun fact. Josh Jacobs has finished as a top six running back per game in two of his last three seasons. And those are two of the three seasons in his career in which his team has been top half in the league in scoring. So good offense means good. Josh Jacobs. Chase Brown was RB3 per game in PPR from weeks nine through 17 on pace for 81 catches. Go ahead. You guys want to jump in, you can react, you can give me a sound, you can tell me what you had for dinner last night. Whatever, just say something.

[Dave]

How did you choose this sample size of running backs?

[Jamie]

This was the topic. So. Because last week we did this with wide receivers. So we're doing it with running backs.

[Dave]

But why nine through 16?

[Jamie]

Because I think that's what we did with wide receivers. I don't know.

[Dave]

I'm just curious. Like, it's a very weird number range because.

[Adam]

7, 8, 9.

[Dave]

Thank you.

[Jamie]

Jonathan Taylor. In his last three games, he averaged nearly 32 carries per game and 31 PPR points per game. Wasn't really having that great of a season before that reaction. Don't care. That's fine.

[Adam]

Jonathan Taylor is awesome.

[Jamie]

Bucky Irving was the number six running back per game from weeks 10 through 18. He scored 16.3 or more PPR fantasy points in seven of his last eight games, including the postseason, not including one game he left with an injury. So he had chase Brown as RB3 per game from weeks nine through 17. Bucky Irving is RB6 per game from weeks 10 through 18. Which one holds more weight with you guys?

[Adam]

That's for 9 through 16 and 10.

[Jamie]

Through 18, 9 through 17 and 10 through 18.

[Adam]

But we're doing RB 9 through 16.

[Dave]

I was very confused.

[Adam]

So no, I. I think they're almost equal. Those are two of the bottom of the top 12 in terms of running backs. And they have the upside to be top five. And they have profiles that suggest at least enough risk that you get a little concern.

[Jamie]

Ken Walker had 76.1% of the running back carries when he was healthy. That's a very good percentage. And they said they want to run the ball more. Chuba Hubbard was RB8 per game from weeks three through 16. That's a bit. So the first two games of the season were disasters for the Carolina. Then they changed quarterbacks from that point on. Chuba Hubbard was RB8 per game. Two more fun facts. James Cook is only the second running back. I gave this, I think a couple weeks ago. Only the second running back in the last eight seasons to lead the position in rushing touchdowns and finish lower than RB5 per game. Cook was RB11 per game in PPR, 10th and half PPR and 8th in non PPR.

[Dave]

Can you, can you age or stat that by saying he tied for the leading touchdown?

[Jamie]

He did. He did tie for the lead in rushing touchdowns, but he did lead the position rushing touchdowns and the guys that he tied with had much better years than him.

[Dave]

You could just say this is your how you spin it moving forward, how you age your static move forward. If you tie for the lead in rushing touchdowns, then you could still finish outside the top five.

[Jamie]

Okay, and Breeze hall, this is a ESPN stat citing next gen stats. Breeze Hall's yards over expected per attempt has dropped from 1.4 to 0.7 to 0.4 in three seasons and he finished his RB17 per game last year in PPR. All right, Heath, what's our email address for your Dynasty podcast?

[Adam]

You know, I believe it's. I'm not, I don't have it memorized. Adam, what is it? FFT dynastyarabout.com it [e-mail] yes.

[Jamie]

All right. Is it that Thomas.

[Heath]

Yeah, that's what it is.

[Jamie]

All right. I memorized it. FFT dynastyaramount.com Then you should have just said it. I wasn't sure. I wasn't sure. I took a chance there. I got it right. All right, so the Dynasty show. If you want to send your emails, please send it to fft dynastyaramount.com news and notes. So Brian Thomas again leaving practice with a shoulder injury. This is brand new information. So we'll, yeah, we'll check.

[Dave]

I'm trying to get our, our guy Pete Prisco's at Jags minicamp right now, OTAs, whatever they're calling it these days. So he, he is boots on the ground. So hopefully get some information.

[Jamie]

All right, let's talk about J.K. dobbins. J.K. dobbins. One year, 2.75 million dollar deal. Could be worth more than $5 million with the Denver Broncos. You don't have the sad trombone music queued up, but.

[Adam]

I'm not sure you need the sad trombone music. Now. If you thought that RJ Harvey was Alvin Kamara before this news, I don't think it probably matters. If you thought that RJ Harvey was going to be in a committee because he's playing for Sean Payton, then I'm not sure how much this matters. If you were thinking that RJ Harvey might be a workhorse back as a rookie, then it's a, it's It's a bad deal. But I only like in my projections. I think he was RB25 and non RB20 and full PPR. Right now he's RB30 and non RB25 in full. The problem is a lot of the guys around Harvey and the projections are guys that we maybe don't want to draft as high as they're projected because of their age. Camara, Connor, guys like that. So I, I'm kind of struggling with which of those guys I want to rank ahead of. RJ Harvey, Aaron Jones too.

[Dave]

So aside from Jones, I put all those guys ahead of Harvey. It's really interesting how. And we'll see how this plays out. But aside from Genti, all these rookie running backs now have some level of competition that could be ugly for them. Maybe aside from Judkins, who is going into a situation where his main competition could be another rookie. Now, if you believe in Drone Ford, that could easily be the same case. But now you have Hampton with Naji, you have Harvey with Dobbins, you have Henderson with Stevenson. And again, however you feel about these guys remains to be seen. So it's not necessarily an Apples for apples conversation. And Caleb Johnson with Dylan Warren. Like they all have some level of competition which could be awful for them. It may not. It could be meaningless for them. You know, but they're, they're all in situations where, like for me and I think Adam, you probably felt the same way. Like Harvey's path seems so amazing to, to feature touches and again, it still may be the case. So I wrote the, you know, recap on, on Harvey and I think he's probably feels the same way. Like, if you believe in RJ Harvey, you shouldn't let this sway you too much. Now you're gonna get him at a discounted price. If you're concerned about Harvey, if you were concerned about Harvey before this, you're probably going to be just waiting to see how this all plays out for me. He's now fallen to the fourth rookie running back where before he was my second favorite rookie running back. So I put him behind Henderson and behind Hampton because again, starting to look at it and just how it may all shake out draft capital for Hampton. I put him ahead and Henderson I think is in the best situation of these guys maybe aside from, you know, you know, Gentian and, and Judkins. But I just think Judkins could potentially struggle in passing situations because of Samson, because of Ford being there. So for now it's Hampton and it's, it's Hampton, Harvey, Judkins, Johnson. For me, behind the first two of Genti and Henderson, Adam.

[Adam]

I wonder if we looked at it like, let's just assume all these rookie running backs are relatively similar. Besides Genti, at least the top five or two through six. Who. Which competition are you most worried about? Hurting their fantasy value. So you got Dobbins, Naji, Jalen, Warren, Ramondre, Stevenson, Jerome, Ford, or the five guys.

[Jamie]

I would rank it. My biggest concern. I would rank it and I'd love to get your rankings. Dobbins, Najee, Stevenson, Warren, Ford, Ford. Distant fifth.

[Adam]

I agree with Ford. A distant fifth. I would put. Steve, if we're talking full ppr, which I think we are for the purposes of this show with our rankings, I'd. I would probably put Stevenson fourth.

[Jamie]

Yeah, thought about that. And Warren.

[Adam]

I'd be more. I think Warren could have a bigger role and a more defined role than Stevenson. The scores, fantasy points. I'd probably put Naji ahead of Dobbins. Like, I, I think Dobbins is more explosive and more exciting, but Naji seems way more likely to just stay healthy all year and annoy us with how many carries he gets.

[Dave]

I, I would agree with that. I think the. It's. It's pretty clear. Top and bottom. Top two guys, two guys at the top, two guys at the bottom and, and probably the Stevenson's in the middle. I, I think just in terms of. Or I guess no Stevenson. I butchered that.

[Jamie]

Yeah, it's pretty clear too, at the top and one at the bottom.

[Adam]

Right?

[Dave]

Yeah.

[Jamie]

You could argue Stevenson versus Warren, but.

[Dave]

I would agree that Warren's more of a concern for Caleb than Stevenson is for Henderson. The, the thing about Dobbins that makes me a little bit more concerned is he could be their best runner.

[Adam]

Yeah.

[Dave]

Yeah. And I don't think Naji will be the Chargers best runner. He may get more work, but I don't think he'll be the best runner. Now the thing with Dobbins is he misses at least four games every year since 2021. I think that's correct. So will he stay healthy? And whenever you see guys linger in free agency this long, like, why did that happen? Is he. Was he asking for too much money? Was he waiting for the right opportunity? Was he going to wait, you know, until camp for an injury? You know, when guys get to this point in their careers as well, you know, do they want to go through the off season workouts? Especially guys that have had to do so much rehab? So I'm hoping that Harvey's shown enough in the small sample size of OTAs and minicamps that he's impressed Sean Payton. And clearly they made the investment to go get him first before signing Dobbins, which they could have done weeks ago or months ago even. And it's also a situation of. Is this really just more of an indica. An indictment on Audrey guess The main Angelo McLaughlin, who combined for, you know, 100 and some odd. What was 189 carries? I believe it was those two guys last year. Like, it could just be that.

[Adam]

Yeah, I. I thought, like, I think it was another good lesson also in, like, Sean, I know the coach Speak index, and certain coaches are more reliable than others. Sean Payton just showing his true colors again. Like a week ago, he was talking about how Audrey Custome has to get more touches this year than he did last year. And then they go draft a guy or sign a guy who's clearly better than Audrey Customer at his same job.

[Jamie]

All right, so you guys are thinking round five for Harvey.

[Dave]

Yeah, so he was around four picks for me. Now it's like five, six, depending on how the running backs look. For Dobbins, I put him in the, you know, handcuff range of like, where Stevenson is, where Naji is, like, it's. It's almost like an identical pairing.

[Jamie]

So The Broncos, in two seasons under Sean Payton have ranked 21st and 20th in running back carries, but first and fourth in running back targets. So you figure. And a lot of that's going to come on first and second down. So if Dobbins is playing on first and second down, he should catch some passes. But still could see a path for Harvey to be very involved in the passing game. I want to take a break, and I just want to bring something up with Dobbins. I haven't even asked you where you're going to draft Dobbins at this point. Just bring something up with J.K. dobbins and we'll be right back after this break on Fantasy football today. So just a couple of positives and maybe one negative for J.K. dobbins. Everything he did last year when he was, I think RB18 per game was coming off a torn Achilles. Granted, that was in week one of 2023. But to be RB18 per game in PPR, which is what he was, which is one of the better finishes for a Greg Roman running back, by the way, coming off a torn Achilles, and he averaged 4.6 yards per carry. That's a positive. Also, he's only 26 years old. It's Crazy. So as a guy who just drafted R.J. harvey and Dynasty, obviously I'm disappointed, but even though I, you know, I knew it was possibly going to happen. Oh, actually, what was. Did he visit them before or after he visited, like right after I made.

[Adam]

I think the day the pick. I'm not sure if it was right before. Right.

[Dave]

It was right after you made the pick.

[Jamie]

Yeah. Right. Okay. So I guess I didn't know. But what if he's just good again and they just resign him? You know, it's. It's. Could. Could be a problem. He's only 26.

[Adam]

Go ahead. If you get. Finish up yours. I got another Dobbins thing too.

[Jamie]

My negative on Dobbins is that in the first two games of the season last year, he averaged 10 yards per carry and he was incredible. He had three carries of 43 or more yards on 27 attempts. From week three on, he averaged 3.8 yards per carry. I think he. Yeah, he had two runs longer than 20 yards on 168 carries. Then he had a terrible game in the playoffs. What? Nine carries for 26 yards and no catches. So he was incredible out of the gate and then he was actually, if you look at all the advanced metrics, most of the advanced matches kind of bad after week two. So maybe that's why. And obviously the injuries. He missed four games. Maybe that's why it took so long for teams to sign him. Just going back to what Jamie said or what were you going to say, Heath?

[Adam]

There was a lot of talk last year about how Javante Williams, even though he really performed poorly, was always on the field because he was the best pass protector and he was amongst the league leaders in past protection snaps last year. Dobbins was top five last year in past protection snaps and top five in pass block grade.

[Jamie]

Oh, wow.

[Adam]

That would be bad for Harvey if. If they don't trust him to block on passing. He could still have targets. Like there were still a lot of running back targets that went to other people. But if Dobbins is the guy they trust more in that role and when he's healthy, he's a better rusher, then you're getting into the Harvey bust case.

[Dave]

Can you look, Adam, there was a question in the chat. The PFF grades for run blocking for the the Chargers and the Broncos, who was better?

[Jamie]

Well, the Broncos have arguably the best offensive line in football.

[Dave]

I was gonna say I was pretty sure it's Denver, but I didn't know if you had it in front of you.

[Jamie]

Oh, yeah. No, I mean, it's Denver. I'll double check. But Denver was first in on ESPN's run block and pass block win rate. They were first in both. Pff. I actually do have that open, I think. Yeah, I do. Oh, yeah. So Denver was. They were 11th in run blocking. The Chargers were 21st. They were first in pass block grade. Denver. I believe so. But yeah, you are talking about. This is another thing that has to be mentioned. I don't think people really put Denver in that category. I wasn't even aware of it until after the season when I looked at their grades. They might have the best offensive line.

[Dave]

In football, but this is where like the grades are hard to sometimes take because the Broncos didn't seem to run the ball very well.

[Jamie]

It's. You're right, but isn't.

[Adam]

It doesn't.

[Jamie]

I mean, that probably tells you something about Japan. Yeah, correct.

[Dave]

It's the usage. It's the, the players. And they significantly upgraded their backfill. Without a doubt.

[Jamie]

Yeah. All right, so J.K. dobbins, is he a top 100 pick? Foreign.

[Dave]

I'm sorry, what was the question?

[Jamie]

Is J.K. dobbins a top 100 pick?

[Dave]

He's right in that range for me. You know, again, if you're, if you're looking at it as we just said, who's the, the biggest threats? Like if Naji's a big threat to Hampton, Dobbins is obviously a big threat to Harvey. And I, I view them somewhat similar, you know, because they're both going to face competition from rookie running backs that have huge upside and hopefully the rookie running back is better. But it's hard to overlook what Dobbins did. And you know, like you said, it's not like Sean Payne's just going to throw the ball to his running backs on, on third down or obvious passing situations. And he had 30 some odd receptions last year in 14 games, so. Or 13 games. Excuse me.

[Jamie]

Yeah, 32.

[Dave]

So there's, there's still the potential for a 30 to 40 catch season for him. And Javante had 50 catches. I hope most of that goes to Harvey, but wouldn't be surprising if Dobbins is just, you know, one of these veterans that still performs and impacts the rookie in a negative way. And to your point, Heath, I'm curious about this. Like with, with the dynasty value for Harvey now for anybody doing rookie drafts or startup that he's 24 years old and may lose a year of significant production. You know, when you're comparing him to Judkins and Caleb Johnson, and I don't think he falls to the Toot and Jaden Blue range by any stretch. But, you know, when you start to get past those top five or six guys, like, where does he start to, you know, play with the receivers?

[Adam]

Right? And that's like, I didn't move him much in the Dynasty rankings, but I had him at the 12th pick in Super Flex drafts before this signing.

[Jamie]

Oh, wow.

[Adam]

So I, I had him behind Caleb Johnson and I had him behind that, that trio of wide receivers that one of them usually goes in round one and one of them goes in round two, Golden Bird, Nabuka, because I just wasn't as high on him coming into the year and I didn't think he was going to be a feature back. So I, I would expect. I've still got three rookie drafts left. I would expect that Harvey's either the fifth or the sixth running back taken now. I would, I would assume he falls behind Judkins for sure.

[Jamie]

Okay, couple more questions real quick. J.K. dobbins or Javante Williams?

[Dave]

Williams.

[Jamie]

Today it's definitely Williams, J.K. dobbins Or Travis. ETN.

[Adam]

Definitely ETN for me.

[Dave]

ETN.

[Jamie]

How about Tutin or Bigsby?

[Dave]

Thomas and Redraft?

[Adam]

I think I have it. Bigsby, Dobbins, Tootin. But Tooton's another one of those guys that I'm just quite a bit lower than. Consensus one.

[Jamie]

All right, let's move on. Colston Loveland, recovering from a shoulder injury, may not be ready for the start of training camp. I think that's probably something that we're underplaying a little bit. We'll see how long this lingers. But you obviously want a rookie to be out there for OTAs for mini camp. You want to certainly be out there for training camp. I mentioned. ESPN's Cameron Wolf says that Tua Tungavailoa wants to get the ball out quicker. That would be something because he was. He led the NFL in that metric. Getting the ball out quickly. John who Smith was not at minicamp is in the contract dispute. Ricky Pearsall and Juwan Jennings are both injured right now, but they should be ready for training camp. Meanwhile, Brandon Iuk is likely to start the season on the PUP list. There is no timetable for Taysom Hill's return in New Orleans. And good news, CJ Stroud was seen throwing at minicamp. All right, let's get into Arby's. 9 through 17 in the consensus ranking 16. 9 through 16. Pardon me. All of them were top 20 per game in 2024. So these were, you know, good performers and. Right. Like, sometimes you might get a guy coming into his second year or something like that. We're projecting a big jump. Fortunately, all of these guys have. Have done it before at least once. All right, so we got Josh Jacobs, Chase Brown, Jonathan Taylor, Bucky Irving, Ken Walker, James Cook, Chuba Hubbard, and Breeze Hall. When you look at this ranking list here, Jamie, I'll start with you. This is the consensus rankings combination of you, Dave, and Heath. Is there anything that you see here? Jacobs, Brown, Taylor, Irving, Walker, Cook, Hubbard, Breeze, Hall. Anything you see that you are very different on in terms of where these guys are ranked?

[Dave]

No, not very different. I would take Cook over Walker, assuming there's no holdout for Cook. And the fact that he showed up in minicamp is clearly positive. After Walker, though, the next group of guys, and I know we're only stopping at 16 because we're not allowed to talk about 17, but the next group of guys is where I start to get a little bit concerned. And so, you know, Hubbard and Hall, they definitely have their potential flaws, which is why they're ranked lower than the other guys. But then you start to get into the camara mix in Connor, rookies, you know, all those guys started coming to play, and there's just a lot of questions, but I think the first 14 have all had the chance. I mean, they. A lot of other players do, too, but I feel the most confident in the first 14 having a chance to be top 10 or higher.

[Jamie]

Okay, so you're tearing it where Jacobs, Chase Brown, Taylor, Bucky Irving, Ken Walker, James Cook, you feel pretty safe with them and then little riskier with Hubbard and Hall, Is that fair to say?

[Dave]

Just a little bit. You know, hall, because of Justin Fields and the lack of potential receptions and maybe decline in some rushing touchdowns. And then Hubbard is going to face competition to what level? We'll find out. But I do think that the combination of Rico Doddle and Trevor ETN is certainly more significant than not having Jonathan Brooks there really at all, and Miles Sanders. So I think the usage will come down a little bit for Hubbard, while the offense might be better. So, again, these are not guys that I'm shying away from, but I do think that there are a little bit more pitfalls and negatives than the guys ranked ahead of them.

[Jamie]

Okay, Heath, and any major differences for you as we look at 9 through 16 in the consensus rankings?

[Adam]

I don't know that I'd say major differences, except that, well, James Cook is not in my top 16.

[Jamie]

Okay.

[Adam]

So that. That would be the major difference. I would. I agree with Jamie on the tier break, but I would just put the tear break after Walker. And I. I'm. I'm really concerned that Cook's share of the workload last year didn't get better, even though I think he's awesome and there's too much touchdown regression coming for me to feel comfortable with him at this point. You look at Walker versus Cook. Last year, Cook outscored Walker by 0.2 fantasy points per game. He scored 10 more touchdowns.

[Jamie]

This is in full PPR.

[Adam]

Full PPR?

[Jamie]

Yeah. Cook had 32 catches in 16 games. Ken Walker had what he had, 46 and 11.

[Dave]

Yeah.

[Jamie]

So there's the big difference there.

[Dave]

I would agree with that. Walker overcook if you can guarantee me that Walker can stay healthy.

[Adam]

Yeah, no, that's.

[Dave]

That. That's.

[Adam]

That's a fair question. The other thing that's just a smaller disagreement is I do have Taylor at the top of this group.

[Jamie]

Okay, Jamie, where do you have Taylor? He's 11th in the consensus rankings behind Jacobs and Chase Brown. In this group that we're talking about, Jonathan Taylor. So Heath has him ninth.

[Adam]

I've got him eight. I've got him ahead of Derek Henry.

[Jamie]

Okay, Jamie, how about you? Where do you have Taylor?

[Dave]

He's. He's 12th for me. So Jacobs, Brown, and Irving are ahead.

[Jamie]

Of Taylor for me in full ppr. And Taylor is definitely someone that is, I think, should be valued differently in the. In the three different formats, non half and full ppr. Actually, yeah, I got a. I think a pretty good note on. On Taylor, but as you look at this group, just overall, before we get into specifics on. On these players, do you think you like this group of running backs better than the equivalent one wide receivers? I think it's kind of hard to say because there's some. Some running backs you're gonna like. It might be. Might depend on at what point in nine through 16. But, you know, we're talking about, like, T. Higgins at the top and all the way to like a Garrett Wilson. In fact, instead of me guessing, why don't I pull up the wide receiver rankings and I'll give you nine through 16 in the wide receiver consensus rankings. And that would be Brian Thomas Jr. Who we like better than all these running backs. Drake London, T. Higgins, L.A.D. mcConkey, JSN Devonte Adams, Rashee Rice, Tyreek Hill.

[Dave]

It's easy for me, the guys before jsn, to take them over most of these running backs once we get to the JSN group. It's kind of, I think, you know, not to take the easy way out, but whatever your roster build would be at that point. So in a vacuum, it would probably be the running backs at least 9, 10, 10, 11 and 12. Then it's sort of just a mixed bag.

[Adam]

Yeah, we. I think we talked about that. There was kind of a tier break after wide receiver, 12 or 13 for us. And so that top tier of the wide receivers, I would take first and then the top tier of the running backs and then the mixed bag.

[Jamie]

Okay. Yeah, good. Good to know. So, yeah, you know, we can talk about Jonathan Taylor. So, boy, do we have a lot of Azer stats on this one. In fact, I should probably queue up the song. I looked at Jonathan Taylor. He's played five years in the league. Wait, is that right? Yeah.

[Adam]

Yes.

[Jamie]

Five years in the league. Kind of doesn't seem that. That much. Right. And he threw the highest on him. You have Maith, Dave and Jamie, Evan, 12th. Okay. His first year, I took out week one. He wasn't the starting running back. I think it was smarter than Mac. Right. And then Mac got hurt. Is it Mac? Whatever. His second season left it as is. Played 17 games. He was the number one running back. In fantasy, he was number two per game. His third season, I took out one game where he played one snap. His fourth season was tricky. Fourth season, he's coming off surgery for an ankle. He holds out. He misses training camp, misses the first four games of the year. He barely plays in his first two games. Then he's splitting pretty much evenly with Zach Moss. You have to get to the second half of the season where he's finally getting his featured work. So I looked at those games and then I looked at all of 2024 where he played what, 14 games or 11 games? 14 games. Again, I'm confused with Kim Walker, but, you know, played a normal snapshare in pretty much every game. Here's where in full ppr, this is pretty much what he's been per game when Jonathan Taylor has been, you know, on the field himself. Normal workload. 9th per game, 2nd per game, 10th per game, 8th per game. I think that's it. Right. Did I go through and then the set and then seventh per game. So in four or five seasons, he's been seven to 10 per game. And then one year he was second per game. So I thought that was. That was one of the most interesting things I uncovered about Jonathan Taylor. That's in full ppr and he's better than that in half a non ppr. But what do you think of that, Heath? You know, does that kind of give us his likely range of outcomes, 7 through 10?

[Adam]

Yeah, I think like somebody in the chat had said that he's an injury risk and Jamie had mentioned that Ken Walker's kind of an injury risk. I think almost any running back you can talk about injury risk and walk. Taylor has missed a little bit of time for a variety of reasons over the last few years, but he's still 26 years old, even though he's played five years in the NFL. And we all, I think we all believed he was one of the most talented running backs coming into the NFL when he was drafted. He's not done anything to suggest that's not true. In his five years in the NFL, he's pretty much always a top 10 running back. And even the receiving part, like last year, 18 catches in 14 games is absolutely awful. But that's not what he's been for most of his career. He's been over two catches a game or right at two catches a game pretty much every other year. And so I, I think he's just one of those guys that's such a great runner and gets so much work as a runner when he's healthy that the receiving problems can be overcome pretty easily.

[Jamie]

Derek Henry.

[Dave]

There are three, I think, Sorry. I think there are three guys, maybe four if you want to throw Barkley in there, but three guys that you sort of look at and say their passing game work is not going to be where they win. And it's Barkley, it's Henry, it's Taylor, and it's Cook. And how much of that is going to be offset by how good they are as rushers? And so, I mean, look, he was, he's been a stud. Like, that's just who Taylor is. Like, you know, you, you know what you're getting. So will he, you know, get to 30 catches? 30 plus catches? It's hard to say given the quarterbacks that he has.

[Jamie]

You know, I think he will if it's Daniel Jones, maybe like his first three seasons he was on pace for 40, 40 or more catches.

[Dave]

I, I, yeah, but I, I think it's a byproduct of what this offense is like. Where do you think he stacks up in terms of past catchers on this team?

[Jamie]

Well, at running back they have, there's like no competition. He's actually, believe it or not, Jonathan Taylor, he's not exactly in every down back, but he's not Far from it. He'll play like some, maybe halfish of the third down. So I would say he'll be like getting, yeah, like he'll be fourth in targets. But there was a team, what was a. I mean, I'm trying to think who it was, you know, 17 games or 16 games of Saquon Barkley a few years ago with Daniel Jones. I think he had 51 catches or something like that.

[Dave]

It's really not a better pass catcher though.

[Jamie]

He is, he is, but I, but that was with Daniel Jones throwing 27 passes per game.

[Adam]

Well, even last year, a year that he only played 14 games and the passing work wasn't really there. The big reason he caught 18 passes is because he had a 58 catch rate when he'd been at 77 for his career. I, maybe it's only 70 because Jones and Richardson are so bad. But if he'd have caught his normal percentage of targets, he would have had 24 catches in 14 games last year. So I think if he plays 17 games, 30s, like not a guaranteed but certainly possible. But the bigger thing is he's one of the surest bets probably if he plays 15 games to have 300 rush attempts.

[Jamie]

Oh yeah, yeah. He plays efficient.

[Dave]

He plays that much. I mean he should be 1500 rushing yards easy.

[Jamie]

Yeah, yeah, yeah. But, but that. So I, I honestly, I honestly think the quarterback is a big deal because I think you. It's hard to say. It's hard to say this was a straight face, but I think Daniel Jones is significantly better. Mildly. Significantly better. Better though for Jonathan Taylor, because I just think Richardson is such a vulture. Like I said, when, when Richardson and Taylor were on the field, Richardson only had 50% of the carries from the one to three yard line. And we're talking like the margins here are going to be the touchdowns. We know pretty much what to expect from Jonathan Taylor. A ton of carries, a lot of yards, but not, not going to. He's going to have fewer catches and fewer touchdowns. I think pretty definitively with Daniel Jones. That's my, that's how I feel about it. I don't know if you. More catches. Oh yeah, I'm sorry, fewer. Fewer catches and fewer touchdowns with Anthony Richardson. More of each with Jones.

[Dave]

I just never understand these play callers that have such a standout player in Jonathan Taylor and you wouldn't want to throw the ball to him to help your quarterback get some easy completions and hopefully some easy yards. Like it just never makes sense to me to more design screens, you know, more Wheel routes to, you know, give him opportunities like just put the ball in his hands in different ways.

[Adam]

Yeah. I just wonder if, like, even with 1.3 catches per game last year, he averaged 22.9 touches per game. I wonder if they just like you, they don't want to give Jonathan TAYLOR the ball 25 times a game. They probably should.

[Dave]

It is one thing to just mention with him that they are replacing two offensive linemen could be an upgrade, but they lose their center and they lose their left.

[Jamie]

Fries you're talking about.

[Dave]

Yeah, I think guard, it sounds like.

[Jamie]

Yeah, yeah, that's a great point because they've been a really good run blocking team. All right, so that's Jonathan Taylor. I think we've painted kind of a, a safe picture of a lot of carries. We'll see about right guard. Okay. But yeah, that's a good note on the offensive line and a good, good place to take a break here when we come back. Yeah, you know, we'll talk about everyone. There's a big difference between Josh Jacobs and Chase Brown. Just their profiles, they're so different. And they're back to back in the consensus rankings. All right, let's take a break. We'll be right back. So if we could lump Taylor into this discussion, how do you decide between sort of these, these proven guys, Josh Jacobs and Jonathan Taylor versus these younger guys coming off huge second halfs, Chase Brown and Bucky Irving, both of whom were day three picks by the way, in the NFL draft, which maybe people could be a little bit scared of. But. Yeah. How do you, how do you choose Heath between Jacobs and Taylor versus Chase Brown and Bucky Irving?

[Adam]

Well, I mostly just choose Taylor because I think he's the most talented and I haven't projected for the most, but I also have them seven. These four backs are all within seven points in full season projections. So I don't have a strong preference. I think right now I've got it ranked. Taylor, Brown, Jacobs, Irving. I feel better about Brown than Irving just because of the significantly worse competition around him for running back touches. Yeah, Irving was awesome last year, but probably still going to share quite a bit more than Brown does. And then I think with Jacobs, it just come like he's awesome too. I'm not trying to diminish him, but how much of the packers turning into the Ravens in the second half of the season sticks? Because in the past, the floor offense has been much pass heavier than it was last year. And especially in the red zone, they'd been a really high pass Touchdown team. And that just completely flipped for eight to 10 games. Was it last year? Maybe 12, maybe longer. I would expect. Taking a wide receiver in round one and a little bit of regression to what they've always done means Jacobs doesn't have quite as much work as he did last year.

[Dave]

It's interesting. The who's. Who's more talented, Taylor or Jacobs?

[Jamie]

Taylor. Like not even close for me.

[Dave]

Taylor not close for you?

[Jamie]

Yeah. And Taylor hasn't really been as explosive in his last three seasons as he was in his first two seasons. Now one of those years was the holdout year and playing her. Played her. 2023 was kind of a wash for him. He had turfed. Was it 2022? He had the turf though, when he was playing through it. I actually think it was like 2022.

[Dave]

Was the disastrous year because he was the number one running back in 2021 and we all had him ranked first overall.

[Jamie]

So 2022, he was playing hurt and then he got hurt. He hurt his ankle at the end of the year and missed the rest of the season. And then 2023, he's coming off ankle surgery. He holds out, misses all of training camp, misses the first four games. So those two years I can understand. Last year was like a solid year, but not super explosive for him. But Jacobs is not a big play guy. He's not a home run guy. He's a physical downfield guy.

[Dave]

That matters to you a lot. They're both rushing leaders, right? Both one time led the league in rushing, right?

[Jamie]

Yeah, both have.

[Adam]

Both have a 2,000 yard season.

[Jamie]

They're both super. 2,000 total yards. Yeah, they're both super physical guys. But one of them has much more home run potential. That's how I see it.

[Dave]

And Jacob's pedigree coming into league was better, right? Based on a draft capital, barely by.

[Jamie]

Like 10 picks, maybe 12 picks.

[Dave]

Yeah, I'm not.

[Jamie]

Well, what do you think? I don't want to be the. I don't want to be the determining.

[Dave]

I don't necessarily disagree, but it like it just stood out to me when like he said, he said it and then you double down on it significantly. Like Jacob's career is pretty solid and coming off a pretty good season. And I would say like this is what sways it for me with these two guys fantasy wise. Like to me, Jacob's situation is much better.

[Jamie]

You like Jacobs better?

[Dave]

I like Jacob's better as a fancy running.

[Adam]

How do you.

[Jamie]

How do you rank those four? Can you give me those four?

[Dave]

I have It, Jacobs, Brown, Irving, Taylor. And a lot of it is just the passing down work.

[Adam]

I have it. Taylor, Brown, Jacobs, Irving. And I, I would just say like, I do think Taylor's better than Jacobs as a talent, but I don't think the disparity is quite as big as Adam does. Something else I just saw that was kind of surprising. Last year. Jonathan Taylor averaged 2.2 targets per game. Josh Jacobs averaged 2.5.

[Jamie]

Yeah, I, I think what was that though?

[Dave]

I wonder what the split is. Flacco versus Richardson.

[Jamie]

I have.

[Adam]

Right.

[Jamie]

If you, if you want that. But I think that he, I feel like Josh Jacobs would have a pretty decent role in the passing game if they went back to throwing the ball.

[Dave]

Correct.

[Jamie]

And also Jordan Love missed some games too. So you know Malik Willis I don't think was throwing it to him. Let me see. I have a note on that. He was on. Okay, there we go. Excluding week 18, which I think was a game where like the starters played like half the game for the chart for the packers, he, Josh Jacobs was pace for 41 catches with Jordan Love. I think that's pretty encouraging considering they were one of the most run heavy teams in football. So I actually do think if they go, if they just have a balanced offense again, I think we're looking at a 50 catch running back. I don't know about you, Heath. Does that seem rich?

[Adam]

It seems a little like. I think it's more likely that Taylor has 30 than Jacobs has 50. But it's not, not impossible. I, I would also wonder like he had three or four different games last year with more than 25 rush attempts. If he's a 50 catch running back. I think he probably has zero of those.

[Jamie]

Yeah, yeah, right. No, it would be a right, it would be an offensive philosophy change.

[Dave]

I think most people would take that offset though.

[Jamie]

Right.

[Dave]

More catches for less. It.

[Adam]

I think it would depend on how many of the 15 rushing touchdowns go away with it. But yeah, probably fair.

[Dave]

How many catches did Jacob's had the year with McDaniels?

[Jamie]

What year was that? 22. He had 53 catches in 17 games. All right, so just to finish up this group here, tell me what you think about Chase Brown and Bucky Irving. Both of them were so good in the second half of the year. Chase Brown again, number three running back per game from weeks nine through 17. Bucky Irving, I think he was number six per game. I said from weeks 10 through 18. Heath, you mentioned they have some risk in their profile. What risks do you see? What do you like about them as well.

[Adam]

I think with Chase Brown, it. There's no. I don't see quite as many risks. I feel more confident that the Bengals offense is going to be exactly what it was or maybe even a little better for a running back than it was last year than I do with Bucky. The risk for both of them is their day three running backs. I'm not sure. A lot of people thought when Chase Brown came into the NFL that he could be an 85% of the snap running back and he did that last year. But there's some risk they decide to dial back his workload a little bit. For Irving. It's just that they have at least a serviceably good pass catching running back next to him and Rashad White and Maybe the best RB3 in the league and Sean Tucker, who they're talking up again this summer as he's not going to be not involved. And they're talking about how the offense, they want to get a little bit more vertical in the passing game and they were a team that threw a lot to their running backs last year.

[Jamie]

Okay. I don't know anything else you guys want to say about them or.

[Dave]

I think it's, it's an interesting conversation when you compare the top of the wide receiver rankings to this group of running backs. From the standpoint of Amara St. Brown is kind of like the. Okay, I know what I'm getting with him and I feel like that's Josh Jacobs and Jonathan Taylor and then you have Malik Neighbors and maybe Puka of. There's a couple different directions they can go. Oh, and that feels like Chase Brown and Bucky.

[Jamie]

I thought you were gonna say Malik Neighbors and Brian Thomas Jr. Yeah, you.

[Dave]

Can make that comp too. You know, I just. Look, Puka's a little bit wild card with the addition of Adams, but sure. Brian Thompson, great call. You know, so there's, there's huge upside. Clearly, as we saw at times, there's huge upside for Chase Brown and Bucky Irving. You know, so if you're chasing maybe the higher ceiling, you know, Brown and Irving may be better than Jacobs and Taylor if you're just looking at, you know, what you're getting. They've been tried and true. You know, Jacobs and Taylor are like, you know, Saint Brown of just quality production. Huge upside production. You know, don't, don't want to discount that by any stretch but, you know, not a lot of pitfalls and just feel like safe.

[Jamie]

Okay. Just to go back to question you asked recently, the Joe Flacco Versus Anthony Richardson thing. Five games with Joe Flacco. Jonathan Taylor was on pace for 37 catches. Nine games with Anthony Richardson, he was on pace. He was a base for 13 catches. Yikes.

[Dave]

Scary.

[Jamie]

And he was on pace for 13 rushing touchdowns and actually two receiving touchdowns with Richardson compared to 14 rushing touchdowns with Joe Flacco and no receiving touchdowns. All right, pardon me, let's go to the next four here. So we've got Ken Walker, James Cook, Chuba Hubbard and Bree Hall. Ken Walker, James Cook, Chuba Hubbard and Bree Hall. And based on what you guys were saying earlier, it's easy to put Walker and Cook. Oh, no, wait, I think I'm wrong about that because Heath is lower on Cook.

[Adam]

Right.

[Jamie]

So both of you, tell me how you feel about Walker, Cook, Hubbard, Hall. Jamie, go ahead.

[Dave]

I think for Walker, the upside is immense. You know, we saw, as he said, you know, I don't think a lot of people realize his points per game and how close it was to James Cook and, and just how good he was last season because again, he missed time and Zach Charbonnet was almost just as good as Walker was in that role. So this offense is going to get some standout production from its backfield for the lead rusher. You keep saying, and, and you know, I hear the same thing out of Seattle, like they want to try and run the ball more. Bringing in Sam Donald. I don't know how much of a change, drop off improvement there is at the quarterback position. To me it feels like a little bit of a wash for where Geno Smith was last year because I don't think Sam Darnold will be as good as he was in Minnesota. But this is a team that, you know, tried to upgrade its offensive line, traded it's, you know, arguably its best receiver or at least its most proven receiver. Bringing in a guy like Cooper cup at his age, bringing in MVs, you know, you know, changing offense coordinators, you know, so there are a lot of things, you know, moving parts here. But I think for Walker, if he's guaranteed to play close to a full season, could be better than all the guys listed here. I mean, he's got that much upside, you know, so I think when you get past the first 12 or 13 guys, depending on how you view Cook, like Walker should be the next guy off the board, especially now that Mixon has competition from Nick Tub. You if you don't love Hubbard or you don't love hall or a little bit concerned like I am maybe about those guys. Like, to me, Walker is The easy pick. And I think a lot of people sort of are really divided on how they feel about Ken Walker, just based on how the drafts go. Like, sometimes he slips into round four, sometimes he's aggressively drafted in round three. You know, it's just, I think, where you come out on. On Walker, for me, he's around three pick. And of the guys listed here, he's the last guy I would take in round three. I would not take Hubbard in round three. I would not take Holland round three. Those guys are round four at the earliest.

[Jamie]

By the way, you can consider me one of those guys who's conflicted on Ken Walker. But Heath, how do you feel about Walker, Cook, Hubbard, Hall?

[Adam]

Walker is in the tier with the guys we just talked about for me, and everybody else is not. And I, I listen. There's still a little bit of concern, I guess, about how the touches will be split up between Walker and Charbonnet when they're both healthy. But I'm mostly working with the assumption that Ken Walker is the starting running back and probably playing 60 of the snaps, which is what he's done for most of his career. And even counting the games he's left over early, since his fourth game in the NFL, the first time he played 50 of the snaps, he's averaged 15 1/2 PPR fantasy points per game, counting the games he leaves early. I. I think what Jamie said about his upside is, is absolutely right. If in this offensive system, with their desire to run the ball more, if Ken Walker just stays healthy, he's probably a top 12 rank.

[Jamie]

Yeah, I mean, he was 16th per game and non PPR, 12th per game and full PPR. So let's just take a look at his. His three seasons. 2022, Rashad Penny was a starting running back for Seattle for the first five games. And then after that, Ken Walker was a top 10 running back per game in his last 11 games. He was great. He was great per carry. He was super explosive. And he was. There was all the reason to think he was like one of the next, you know, breakout fantasy running backs. 2023 gets off to a great start. 17.4 points per game in PPR in his first six games. And then he had a couple of really bad game scripts, and then he left after seven snaps in week 11. And then he was just okay in last four games. So he. What did he finish that year? 2023, he was RB21 per game. Very disappointing. And then last year he averaged 22.3 PPR points per game in his first five games. So, you know, we've got three years in a row where we get a stretch of at least five games of Ken Walker being just a stud. But he never keeps it up. He never keeps it up. He averaged only 11.7 PPR points per game in his last six games. He's also been hurt in, what, two of three years. So that's why I, you know, I see the talent. I also see a guy who averaged 3.7 yards per carry last year. And you want to know why? Because their offensive line is horrible. Was horrible last year, might still be horrible this year. What's improved? They drafted Gray Zabel in the first round, a guard, and hopefully their right tackle, Abraham Lucas. He's played like 13 games in the last two years combined. Hopefully he can stay healthy. But they had major offensive line problems. And, And I can't rely on the catches because in each of his first two years, he was averaging like 1.5 catches per game. So I don't know what that was last year where they started throwing him the ball more usually. He was kind of a liability in ppr. He comes off the field on third down. So he's a home run hitter who hasn't been hitting that many home runs the last two years. He's consistently among the worst in the NFL in percentage of carries for zero or negative yards. And if he's behind a bad offensive line, I don't know that he's gonna be able to hit those home runs. So that's why I'm concerned about Ken Walker. I do see all the positives that you guys see, though, so consider me conflicted. And I will also take him at the. Around the 3, 4 turn, preferably in round four.

[Dave]

I think the thing. Well, first off that I'm curious, the role in the passing game as well, the change in coordinator to bring in Kubiak, coming from a team that just threw a lot to its running backs, Granted, that's Al Kamaru, but it's a. It's a system that should, you know, I mean, he's from the. The Kubiak Shanahan tree, you know, so that's something that is. Is hopefully going to be in place again. Will it be him on first and second down, which is where he'll mostly play, or will it be him coming off the field for Charbonnet on third downs, which could be a huge problem if you're talking about the reception total. I do think the offensive line will be improved, so hopefully that does take a step forward. I Just think he's, he's shown the ability to be a league winner when healthy, and so there's where the risk comes in and just to, you know, sort of transition to Cook. Unless you guys have anything else to say. I keep going back to something you said, Adam, because I believe the same thing. Like, it's hard to overlook not buying into the lead running back on that offense.

[Jamie]

Yeah, I like it better than Walker.

[Dave]

Personally, so I, I do as well. You know, depending on how training camp plays itself out, because I'm glad he's. He's shown up for, for, for minicamp, but as long as he's there, yes, the touches could change. You know, Heath is correct on how he's viewing Cook. Like, if the touchdowns regress and he's losing work to Ray Davis and, And maybe I don't know if it's going to be Ty Johnson, but losing work to two guys, certainly, even if just Ray Davis takes on a bigger role, then it could be hugely problematic. But they didn't do anything really to improve their passing game. And it just feels like, hey, Josh Allen just won the mvp. Hey, we have another chance to compete for Super Bowl. Hey, this guy is still our guy. And now he's playing for a contract. If he shows up and is ready to go, like, 15 plus touchdowns could still be there for him. And I know, you know, you never want to go chasing that type of number for a guy that just spiked in touchdowns. It's a huge problem. And I, I know where, where Heath is on this. You know, not to put words in his mouth, but like, that's, that's a huge concern. But like, these two guys, to me, like, I feel like it. There's like, they're the bridge guys. Like, you know, once you get past however you have it ranked, you know, Jacob Brown, Taylor and Irving, like, there's huge upside with those two guys of Walker and Cook. There's some potential downside. You know, again, I don't think it's huge downside, but potential downside. So there they feel like again, late round three, early round four picks and hopefully they could still be RB1s and top 10 running backs.

[Adam]

I. And yeah, I think the biggest thing for me for Cook is that, like, I'm not really worried about him losing more touches. It's that he didn't average 15 touches a game last year. Yeah, like 14.9 touches per game. You just, you. You have to score that many touchdowns now.

[Jamie]

Well, okay, so I guess this is kind of a point that I have not been making about Cook because I keep giving this stat about how he's the second running back in the last eight years to lead the lead the position and rushing touchdowns and finish lower than RB5 per game. And he was RB11 per game. He was RB11 per game in full, RB10 per game in half, RB8 per game in non PPR. This is James Cook. What I didn't mention and what I'm not even sure I realized until I just looked it up five minutes ago, last year was a really, really good year for running backs. And you take his points per game last year made him RB11 per game. In 2023 and 2022, he would have been per game. So he's not getting drafted anywhere close to that. He also was RB19 per game two years ago with only six touchdowns total, six, two rushing, four receiving in 17 games. So I don't know. I, I just, I have a hard time seeing him finishing lower than RB14 James Cook, which is where he is in our consensus rankings, simply because he is the lead running back for one of the best offenses in the NFL and he's really good. If he were, if he were not that good of a rusher, then yeah, I'd be concerned. But he is awesome. So it's just everything is there for a solid, safe season.

[Adam]

He is awesome. He did not play more than 46% of the team's offensive snaps once after Week 11 last year.

[Jamie]

But what if he does? What if he does? You know, I mean, that's the thing. Like, I feel like his touches could only increase. They're not going to give him fewer touches and fewer snaps. He's too good.

[Adam]

Well, but that's, that's the weird thing is he was over 50% of the snaps in every game but one the first half of the year.

[Jamie]

Did it matter though? He was still great even with this.

[Adam]

Why did they, why did they play him less in the second half and in the playoffs?

[Jamie]

Were there more blowouts? I'm just a question. I don't know.

[Adam]

Well, in the playoffs they had a 24 point game, a two point game and a three point game.

[Jamie]

I don't have an answer for you, Heath. I just, I'm. I guess I'm not as concerned about it because he was so good even with these limited snaps. Like imagine.

[Dave]

I wonder, I wonder how much though of they're gonna run him into the ground because it doesn't sound like they're gonna pay him.

[Jamie]

No, I don't think they're gonna run him into the ground. I don't think he's.

[Dave]

No, no, no. The Marco Murray type situation with Dallas, they're not going to give him 400 touches. Like that's just real. Not realistic for this offense. But I wonder if it's going to be like a. We're not taking him off the field as much maybe as did a year ago.

[Adam]

I hope that that'd be great and he'll be awesome. If that's the case. I. I don't know. I. I wish they would play him more. I love James Cook. Yeah, like. But it's really unusual for a running back playing 40 to 50 of the snaps to be a borderline top 12 guy.

[Jamie]

Chuba Hubbard versus Breeze's Hall. Breeze Hall. Who do you guys like better?

[Dave]

Hall slightly.

[Adam]

Yeah, I've got. I've got Chuba just barely ahead of him. But they seem like completely different players. Like I feel like Chuba's gonna be an RB2 and Breeze hall could be anywhere from a top five running back to like an RB3.

[Jamie]

You really see that with Breeze hall that he could be that low.

[Adam]

I don't, I don't know what's happened the last couple of years. I don't know what I mean. All this coach keeps talking about the three running back system. It doesn't sound like he's happy or necessarily they're happy.

[Jamie]

It's funny you mentioned the last couple of years because I think everyone can agree last year was disappointing. But in 2023 he was number six per game in full PPR. But it just didn't feel like that great of a year. He had 76 catches. He was number 11 per game in non PPR and he did average 4.5 yards per carry. But I think what you're saying is we haven't seen the Breeze hall that like took our breath away as a rookie.

[Adam]

We haven't seen him rush for a thousand yards in a season.

[Jamie]

That's true. Very, very true. On a technicality there. 994 yards.

[Adam]

Well, it's like night. A thousand and two yards isn't a good year if you play 17 games. Which he did that year.

[Jamie]

Yeah.

[Adam]

And I don't like Justin Fields will throw to his running backs more than he used to, but he's not going to catch 76 passes playing with Justin Fields.

[Jamie]

No, no. Is it going to catch 50?

[Dave]

I don't see it with this offense.

[Adam]

I haven't projected for 49.

[Dave]

It's a quarterback.

[Jamie]

49, Jamie. So he kind of just threw out, I think quickly you know, without, without giving it a ton of thought. Sorry, I'm not trying. I didn't mean it that way. I meant like, I didn't want to hold you to it that Breeze hall could be top five or it could be an RB3. What kind of range do you see, Jamie?

[Dave]

Maybe not as low, but look, there's a lot of players again behind him that if Hampton dominates for the Chargers, if Harvey dominates the wrong. Like all those guys could potentially pass him. The, the concern is, is Fields. It's, it's the lack of receptions, it's the lack of, you know, rushing touchdowns that could be escaping him because of what the quarterback does. And so it's just something like the reason I have hall slightly ahead of Hubbard. I think Hubbard's situation is better even though he may have some competition is because of the talent. Like Breeze hall is a really talented player and has the ability to be a 50 plus catch running back easily. He's shown that and he showed that, you know, coming off an ACL tear. He has the ability, I think to be a thousand yard rusher. I don't think that would be a surprise if he ever does it. But it's, it's just something he has not done yet. And so how many touchdowns is he gonna score?

[Jamie]

Yeah, that seems like a problem. So it's funny, I feel like the fact that he's not, I don't know, I, I feel like I see him with a higher floor but a lower ceiling because I can't see him scoring a ton of touchdowns or having a ton of catches that would really vault him into top five territory. But I'm not quite as concerned about the competition in the backfield.

[Dave]

Yeah, that, that's. So if you're like ranking his problems, you know, coming into the season, I think it's Fields lack of throwing to his running backs would be one for me. Field stealing touchdowns would be two for me. And then the Braylon Allen, Isaiah Davis talk would be third.

[Jamie]

Okay. All right. This is a fun show, I think. Very helpful for me and I guess.

[Dave]

Really go into Hubbard.

[Jamie]

Okay, we can do that. Schaefer is kind of knocking Breeze hall in the chat here. Said 1000 yards is just over 58 yards a game and he hasn't gotten it. LOL. Now I don't think that's very nice, Schaefer, because he did average how many yards per game? 66 yards per game as a rookie in seven games. In seven games. And one of those games was four carries for 72 yards.

[Dave]

No.

[Jamie]

Oh, My God, he had fewer than. He had eight or fewer carries in four of those seven games. He averaged five healthy.

[Adam]

So he's unhealthy.

[Jamie]

He was. He tore his acl. It's not like he has these soft tissue injuries. I just hope he can regain his form. Maybe he's going to be one of those guys where it takes two years. Chuba Hubbard. Yeah, whatever. Now Hubbard had a great year. He really did. How do you feel about him? Top 8 running back after week 2?

[Dave]

The usage was amazing.

[Jamie]

You know what, Jamie, I'm gonna, I'm gonna just direct this at you because you keep mentioning the competition. You really. How concerned are you about Rico Dowdle and Trevor Etienne?

[Dave]

I'm not, I'm not concerned to. Again, he's, he's in this range. He's 15th for me or 16th for me. I, I just, again, it's something that could be somewhat problematic and it's really more so the wild card of ETN in the passing game than Rico Dow. I think Rico Dallas, just a, a true backup. Like he had a good season last year because Dallas had nobody else. It's not about him coming off the field for significant stretches because of Rico Dowel. It's. Could ETN come in and maybe take away a lot of the passing downs work, especially on obvious passing downs. And so I think the offense is going to be better. I think what we saw from Bryce Young at the end of last season is something that could be, I don't know, necessarily replicated fantasy wise. But you know, the, the building blocks are there for him. They just added another receiver. They kept really the, the core of what was their offense last year in place. And I think Dave Canalis is great for running backs. I mean, we saw that with Rashad White two years ago. We saw it with Chuba Hubbard last year. You know, there's a lot to love about the situation for him, but I also think that again, if he's losing a little bit of work, shouldn't value him as a top 12 guy. Shouldn't go ahead of those receivers that we talked about. And I think round four is a good spot for him as a number two running back. He's just kind of safe in that, in that middle tier of. Of guys.

[Adam]

I, I think the perfect comparison and the guy that's five spots ahead of in these rankings that we have in a different tier, Chase Brown. They're both day three running backs who played so much more last year than we probably ever thought they should. And Chase Brown's team added Samaj P. Ryan and Taj Brooks. And Chuba Hubbard's team added Rico Dowdle and Trevor Etienne. And so you look at the, the stretch from week six through week 16, Chuba Hubbard averaged an 85% snapshare. That's enormous.

[Jamie]

Yeah. Pretty similar to Chase Brown, I think. Right, right, right.

[Adam]

But there's more signals that the Panthers might like to reduce that than there are that the Bengals might.

[Jamie]

You know what, we never talk about this with the Bengals. They also have Zach Moss back. Right. Like, Chase Brown didn't really take off until Zach Moss had a season ending injury. So I just, I just want to bring that up.

[Dave]

I know he wasn't making the final roster.

[Jamie]

That's a fair point. But he is back as of now. Yeah. All right. Chuba Hubbard. Chuba Hubbard's been in the league longer. He's had more failure than Chase Brown. It's kind of a tough word to use, but I always go back to this. Like going into the year, they, they didn't extend Chuba Hubbard. They drafted his replacement. They signed Miles Sanders. They obviously didn't think Chuba Hubbard was going to be their running back of the future. Guessing he probably would have been off the team. I shouldn't say that, but, you know, after another year. But he wasn't a big part of their plans. Everything has changed. I just can't. I can't quite get over the first three years of, of Chuba Hubbard's career where I think we just kind of looked at him as, as a jag.

[Adam]

I. Yeah, I think Chuba Hubbard's also had more success than Chase Brown. Like we, we shouldn't forget the fact that, what was it from week six on, the year before, he was on pace for a thousand rushing yards. Which I don't know if you know this, but Bruce Hall's never done that.

[Jamie]

No, that's not true. He was on pace for it. Brie saw he was on pace. Never done it though. Yeah.

[Adam]

So I, I do think, like, there's a little more evidence that Chuba can handle this role, and there's a little more evidence that Chuba might just be a guy.

[Jamie]

Okay. Yeah, it's great you mentioned that. Because in 2023, in his last 12 games after he became the starting running back, he was on pace for a thousand sixty yards. He was on pace for 288 carries. He was a, he was a featured running back. He averaged 3.7 yards per carry and 12.4 PPR fantasy points per game. 12.4 PPR fantasy points Per game is going to be right around RB24 every season. So that's two different sides of Chuba Hubbard as a feature. Back in 2023, he performed like RB 2024. In 2024, he performed like RB8.

[Adam]

The offense was more functional in 2024.

[Jamie]

Oh, yeah, upgrade. Yep. Absolutely could definitely point to reasons for that. Also. You take 8 and 24, you go right in the middle, you got RB16. Pretty sure that's where he is in the consensus rank. I think he's.

[Adam]

That's how we do it.

[Jamie]

Yeah. See, fancy football is easy, folks. All right, good stuff. Thank you guys. To. For Jamie and Heath and Tyreek Hill. I am Adam. Also Thomas. What. What happened?

[Adam]

Thomas is now posting rankings in the chat, so. So I really like this.

[Jamie]

Look at that. He has James Cook. Oh, he's low on Brown and Bucky. Go ahead, Thomas. All right, so Thomas's rankings of this group are Jonathan Taylor, Josh Jacobs, James Cook, Breeze Hall, Ken Walker, Chase Brown, Bucky Irving. Irving, Chuba Hubbard. Why you. So what do you want, Brown? Why are you so low on Brown and Bucky?

[Heath]

I'm just worried about them. Like you guys said, they're. They didn't. They didn't have high draft stock and could be one year wonders. We know what we're getting with JT and Jacobs and Cook, if, you know, he reports and doesn't hold out and the guys are. The guys were trying to paint me as a whole hater, but you know what the price. If the price is right, I would take him. I'm just a little worried about him with injuries and Justin Fields, all that stuff. And Walker, I. I mean, I like Charbonnet better than Walker. That's a hot take.

[Adam]

But wow. I.

[Jamie]

Do you mean you like him as a running but not in fantasy.

[Heath]

Yeah, not in fantasy, but I think he's a better runner if he gets the opportunity, which we've seen the last couple years. He has.

[Jamie]

Yeah, he. He's a very cons more consistent runner, but he doesn't basically ever make a big play, whereas that's what you get from Ken Walker. But yeah, I could see. I could see somebody liking that. You know, take the safe. Tom is very safe. Look at. I mean, look at his rankings. He just plays it safe. He. You know, they don't like the risky guys, apparently. All right, go. Let's go.

[Dave]

And says that Brian Thomas Jr. Is quote, fine after leaving practice and he's quote, fully cleared to play.

[Jamie]

Oh, bro Pain wants to replace Adam with a potted plant. Yikes. What kind of plant? I mean, there's a good fern. Pretty big spectrum here of potted plants. You guys have any plants in your house?

[Adam]

Lots.

[Jamie]

Of course, lots of ones. We have one orchid. I read that it's very good for your stress to have greenery in your. In your house.

[Adam]

We have a lot of snake plants.

[Jamie]

Those sound pretty scary. All right, we'll talk to you tomorrow with a mailbag on Fantasy Football today. 10:30 start time 10:30am A little bit later than usual. See you later. Paramount Podcasts.