Jonnu Smith TRADED to Steelers! What It Means for Tyreek Hill, De'Von Achane, Tua Tagovailoa, and 2025 Tight Ends, & More! (06/30 Fantasy Football Podcast)

Summary

Fantasy Football Today: Jonnu Smith Traded to Steelers! What It Means for Tyreek Hill, De'Von Achane, Tua Tagovailoa, and 2025 Tight Ends, & More! (06/30 Fantasy Football Podcast) – Detailed Summary

Release Date: June 30, 2025

In this episode of Fantasy Football Today, hosted by Adam Aizer alongside analysts Dave Richard, Jamey Eisenberg, Heath Cummings, and others, the team delves into the recent trade of tight end Jonnu Smith from the Miami Dolphins to the Pittsburgh Steelers. The discussion explores the ramifications of this move on various players and fantasy football strategies for the upcoming season.

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1. Introduction to the Jonnu Smith Trade

Heath kicks off the conversation with excitement and light-heartedness, stating:

"We interrupt this regularly scheduled programming and my lunch to talk about Jonnu Smith going to the Steelers. This better be good because this chicken parm that I left behind was really good and kind of missing it right now."
[00:05] – Heath

This trade marks a significant shift in the tight end landscape, prompting a deep dive into its implications.

2. Impact on Jonnu Smith and the Steelers

Heath highlights Jonnu Smith's performance from the previous season:

"Johnny Smith was a top five tight end last year. He was fourth per game in full PPR and he's going to the Steelers where he will now be in two tight end sets and on probably a team that's going to run the ball more than the Dolphins will."
[00:28] – Heath

The move to Pittsburgh is expected to influence Smith's target volume due to the Steelers' run-heavy approach, contrasting with the Dolphins' passing strategy.

3. Implications for the Miami Dolphins

The trade significantly affects the Dolphins' receiving corps and overall offensive dynamics.

a. Tight End Rankings and Projections

An unnamed analyst discusses the broader impact on tight end rankings:

"The biggest change is Pat Friermuth. He goes from maybe relevant to not relevant in my projections. John, who was the second biggest change?"
[00:53] – Unknown Analyst

Jonnu Smith's departure slides him to tight end 13 in projections, down from being a top contender. However, there remains potential for him to influence the Dolphins' offense.

b. Tyreek Hill and Jalen Waddle's Target Volume

Heath expresses concerns about Tyreek Hill's draft position:

"Tyreek Hill is at the 29th pick. He's wide receiver 17."
[01:35] – Heath

The analyst explains adjustments in their rankings:

"Tyreek's now my wide receiver 13. I could make a bigger adjustment in the future."
[02:55] – Unknown Analyst

The swap is expected to impact Hill's target share, potentially dropping his value in fantasy drafts from a round three to a later pick.

c. Tua Tagovailoa's Role and Offensive Strategy

The duo discusses Tua's quick release and its effects on the Dolphins' offense:

"Tua, I believe three years in a row has been top three in fastest release. That's not necessarily anything new for the Dolphins."
[05:21] – Heath

They analyze how this strategy emphasizes quick ball movement, which benefits certain receivers while limiting deep passing opportunities.

4. Potential Tight End Acquisitions and Replacement Costs

With Jonnu Smith entering the Steelers' roster, the discussion shifts to available tight ends and their impact.

"There's a real possibility... Michael Mayer could be available in Las Vegas."
[02:55] – Unknown Analyst

The analysts consider the depth of the tight end market, noting:

"I am not going to bump them up because it doesn't really change replacement cost that much at the position."
[09:03] – Unknown Analyst

They suggest that while elite tight ends remain valuable, the overall depth allows for strategic drafting beyond the top few options.

5. Broader Fantasy Football Implications

a. Adjustments to Player Projections

Heath and the analysts discuss how the trade affects their projections for key players:

"H.N is my highest projected running back right now."
[07:43] – Unknown Analyst

Heath counters with target statistics:

"He was on pace for 113 targets with Tua, and he averaged almost 23 fantasy points per game with Tua."
[07:58] – Heath

These insights highlight the nuanced adjustments fantasy managers must consider in their drafts.

b. Running Backs and Wide Receivers

The conversation touches on running backs and wide receivers, emphasizing the importance of understanding team offensive dynamics when valuing players:

"If I'm going to give the ball to somebody within five yards of the line of scrimmage, I would rather it be a Chan than Tyreek Hill."
[08:13] – Heath

6. Discussion on Team Offense and Future Strategies

The analysts explore the need for the Dolphins to enhance their offensive strategies, particularly in deep passing:

"They just have to be willing to have an offense that gets rid of the ball quickly but also at the appropriate times, takes deep shots."
[05:21] – Heath

This balance is crucial for maximizing the potential of high-target receivers like Hill and Waddle.

7. Conclusion and Final Thoughts

As the episode wraps up, Heath and the analysts recap their standings on the discussed players and strategies, emphasizing adaptability in fantasy football:

"If you start getting credit for only fans, it's got to. We're going to have a problem here."
[09:40] – Heath

This light-hearted exchange underscores the camaraderie and dynamic nature of fantasy football discussions.

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Key Takeaways:

• Jonnu Smith's Trade: The move to the Steelers impacts tight end rankings and the Dolphins' offensive structure.
• Tyreek Hill's Value: Potential downgrade in draft value due to altered team dynamics.
• Tua Tagovailoa's Role: Emphasis on quick passing affects wide receiver target distribution.
• Tight End Market: Depth in the position allows for strategic drafting beyond top-tier options.
• Fantasy Strategy: Importance of monitoring team changes and adjusting player projections accordingly.

This episode provides a comprehensive analysis of the Jonnu Smith trade and its ripple effects across various positions, offering valuable insights for fantasy football enthusiasts aiming to optimize their teams for the upcoming season.

Transcript

[Heath]

We interrupt this regularly scheduled programming and my lunch to talk about John who Smith going to the Steelers Heat. This better be good because this chicken parm that I left behind was really good and kind of missing it right now.

[Unknown Analyst]

Well, I appreciate your real commitment to John O. Smith and Steelers and the Dolphins and fantasy football in general.

[Heath]

So Johnny Smith was a top five tight end last year. He was fourth per game in full ppr and he's going to the Steelers where he will now be in two tight end sets and on probably a team that's going to run the ball more than the Dolphins will. And the Dolphins meanwhile, maybe more targets for Tyree Kill and Jalen Waddle. Maybe more targets for hn, although that would be tough. But what change in your projections? What was the biggest change in your projections?

[Unknown Analyst]

The biggest change is John. Well, no, the biggest change is Pat Friermuth. He goes from maybe relevant to not relevant in my projections. John, who was the second biggest change? I did have nine tight ends projected to score more than 10 PPR fantasy points per game this year. Now I have eight. He fell to tight end 13 in my projections. Right in the Jake Ferguson, Dallas Goddard, Brinton. Strange range of the projections. Still think there's a chance for John O. Smith to matter. He did not impact my Steelers projections, but certainly a potentially big impact on the Dolphins.

[Heath]

So nothing on DK Metcalf?

[Unknown Analyst]

No.

[Heath]

Okay. Oh baby. Tyree Kill. I'm almost disappointed because I wanted to draft a lot of Tyree Kill and now I think he'll be a second round pick and he's always a third round pick. Actually let me check adp, see where Tyree Kill is going at the moment on fantasy pros PPR. Tyreek Hill is the 29th pick. He's wide receiver. 17.

[Unknown Analyst]

Yeah, yeah. I, I think I'm not gonna get in your way of drafting Tyreek Hill. Still he was around four pick for me. He is a round three pick for me. Jaylen Waddle I had in round eight, I now have in round seven. Han got a little boost to the projections but I can't rank him any higher. But what I think the, the, the real my box of this situation is that almost immediately we hear from Tom Pelissero that the Dolphins are now in the tight end trade market and there's a surprising number of tight ends who could be available and interesting in this role who might fill most of what John, who Smith did Cole commit could certainly be available. Noah Fant I think has been on the trade block and I know you look at what John who did last year and you think well, okay, Cole commit and Noah Fantastic aren't doing what Jono did last year. But look who Jono Smith was before last year.

[Heath]

Yeah.

[Unknown Analyst]

I, I think Michael Mayer could be available in Las Vegas. That's a guy we were excited about before Brock Bowers got there. So I have made a partial adjustment to the projections. Tyreek's now my wide receiver 13. I, I could make a bigger adjustment in the future.

[Heath]

Yeah. For me it would come into question I think at wide receiver 10 or 11. Because let's see, AJ Brown is 9 for in our consensus.

[Unknown Analyst]

Yeah, he's higher for me. But I think what you're talking about is the T. Higgins, Drake, London lad McConkey trio.

[Heath]

Exactly.

[Unknown Analyst]

That's. Those are the three guys that I would still prefer to take over. Tyree Kill I'd be. I think lad is the only one that Tyreek might pass if the Dolphins don't make a significant addition at tight end.

[Heath]

So you. Okay. If they don't make a significant addition to tight end. Do you still think Tyreek Hill has wide receiver one upside which he obviously had in both 2022 and 23 with the Dolphins?

[Unknown Analyst]

I think my question is Mike McDaniel's earlier statements about getting the ball out of to his hands even faster. Was that dependent on having a tight end in that John O. Smith role to dump the ball off to? I think there's a, a real possibility. I mean if you look at last year's Dolphins targets, the the real loser was Jaylen Waddle.

[Heath]

Yes.

[Unknown Analyst]

And we've seen a season where Jaylen Waddle played that lower adot role and saw 140 targets. Well, last year Tyreek had 123, Johnu had 111, Aan had 87 and Waddle had 83 in 15 games. So I think there's a lot more room for increasing Waddles projection even more. And I think there's a decent chance that HN sees 100 targets this year.

[Heath]

Well, the the Dolphins had 11 games with Tua weeks 1, 2 and 8 through 16. The 17 game paces for the wide receivers in those 11 games was 130. Not just the wide receivers, everyone. 100, 134 targets for Hill, 117 for Johnnu, 113 for Achan and 96 for Waddle. And he did miss one game and left another early.

[Unknown Analyst]

But I think he missed two games and left one early. He missed week 16 and 17 and left left week 15 early Tua did.

[Heath]

Not play week 17, so.

[Unknown Analyst]

Oh, okay.

[Heath]

So yeah, he left one game early, had only two targets and he missed one game. The missed the G missed game doesn't really factor into the 17 game pace the one he left early did. But yeah, I mean still you had Tyreek Hill leading the way with 134 target pace there, which is a far cry from the 170ish target pace he was at the previous two years. But also I bring this up a lot. Tua, I believe three years in a row has been top three in fastest release. That's not necessarily anything new for the Dolphins. They just have to be willing to have a offense that gets rid of the ball quickly but also at the appropriate times, takes deep shots. Go. Because that was really missing. They just didn't throw the ball downfield enough last year. All right, so H.N. you already are super high on not going to change much. It's Hill and Waddle are the big ones here. What about Tua? Is he in this discussion?

[Unknown Analyst]

I've not adjusted to it yet. Again, I think there's an opportunity for the Dolphins to acquire somebody at a pretty low cost and not lose much for in. In regards to Tua. And it might be better for Tua if he was throwing the ball to Hill and Waddle more and Smith less.

[Heath]

Right, That's. I think that's right. You could make this case right? In 2022 and 2023, we've seen the Dolphins offense with Tyree Kill and Jalen Waddle and nothing from the tight ends. It was a pretty damn good offense. You know, Tua was on pace for 4,800-4871, 35 touchdowns in 2022, 4624 yards and 29 touchdowns in 2023. And then believe it or not, actually better than that in 2024. 4,627 and 31 touchdowns. A little bit better than 2023, but not even close to 2022 when Tua had his best season.

[Unknown Analyst]

I mean, the obvious real question in connection with that is Tyree Kill the same guy at 31 years old that he was at 28 and 29?

[Heath]

Yeah, I just. It's a great question. It's one question that we cannot answer. We will not know until the season unfolds. But. All right, that's where we're at on all these guys. I think that's it. Nothing for Aaron Rodgers or anything.

[Unknown Analyst]

I'll just go ahead and say it like in the projections. I'm not ranking it this way yet, but I might gain the courage at some point. Hn is my highest projected running back right now.

[Heath]

I just. How many targets did he have last year?

[Unknown Analyst]

Well, 83 or 87.

[Heath]

He was. What did I say? He was on pace for more than a hundred with Tua. He was on pace for 113 targets with Tua, and he averaged almost 23 fantasy points per game with Tua.

[Unknown Analyst]

Right.

[Heath]

I don't really know what the explanation was for that. That difference in target share, target per out run and all that. It felt like that was going to come down regardless, I think.

[Unknown Analyst]

Well, I think the explanation for it is the fact that they're not throwing the ball on the field.

[Heath]

Yeah, yeah, yeah. I just. Right.

[Unknown Analyst]

And if I'd rather. As much as Tyree Kill has been an incredible player at this stage in their careers, if I'm going to give the ball to somebody within five yards of the line of scrimmage, I would rather it be a Chan than Tyree Kill, and I think Mike McDaniel would, too.

[Heath]

All right, well, I'd like to give a chance. I'd like to give Tyreek hill the ball 20 yards past the line of scrimmage. Let's get that going here.

[Unknown Analyst]

Um.

[Heath]

All right, that's it, I think, for this show, except one. One last aspect. This obviously weakens the tight end group. So does this make Bowers, McBride and Kittle even more valuable?

[Unknown Analyst]

I. I am not going to bump them up because it doesn't really change replacement cost that much at the position. I still think Jono Smith's going to get drafted. He's just going to get drafted later. It probably makes this, the great Jamie Eisenberg strategy of great or late at tight end a little bit more appealing because there's one less guy when you get past those first three or four tight ends. And now you got to decide, when do you want to take David Njoku? When do you want to take Travis Kelsey? When do you want to take TJ Hawkinson? And then you're done. It's slate.

[Heath]

Yeah. You know, you made a comment on the show we did earlier today. On Monday morning, you made a joke about Dave's only fans drafts. And then you said fans only. And someone in the. In the comments had already laughed about it, like, oh, he's hilarious. Little only fans joke. And I've been making that joke since last year. So you stole greater late from me and you gave it to Jamie. If you. If you start getting credit for only fans, it's got to. We're going to have a problem here.

[Unknown Analyst]

I think you might want to work on your delivery.

[Heath]

I don't think so. I think the delivery's been really good. I'm very happy with the delivery. All right, well, thank you very much, Heath. And we'll talk to everybody tomorrow on Fantasy Football. Today, Paramount podcasts.

[C]

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