LAST-MINUTE Week 16 Start 'Em, Sit 'Em Advice! Actives/Inactives Updates & Q&A! (12/22 Fantasy Football Podcast)

Summary

Fantasy Football Today – Week 16 Start 'Em, Sit 'Em Advice! Actives/Inactives Updates & Q&A! (Released December 22, 2024)

In the latest episode of Fantasy Football Today, hosts Jamie Eisenberg and Dave Richard delve into the crucial final stretches of the Fantasy Football season. This comprehensive discussion provides listeners with essential start 'em, sit 'em recommendations, player updates, and answers to pressing questions from the fantasy community. Below is a detailed summary capturing all key points, insightful analyses, and strategic advice shared during the episode.

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1. Week 16 Lineup Finalization

Cleveland Browns: Quarterback and Running Back Situations

The episode kicks off with an in-depth look at the Cleveland Browns’ lineup decisions:

• Quarterback Dorian Thompson Robinson (DTR): Currently starting at QB, DTR's performance is under scrutiny. Dave Richard highlights, “when he throws 10 or more yards downfield, there's like a third of a chance that basket's completed” (03:07).

• Backup Quarterback David Najoku: If Najoku is active, Dave assesses him as “a top like 8ish fantasy tight end maybe a little bit higher” (03:07). However, his involvement could limit targets for other receivers like Jerome Ford and Cedric Tillman.

• Running Back Jerome Ford: Despite starting, Ford is projected to yield modest returns, with Dave estimating “about 12 PPR points” (04:11).

Tennessee Titans: Tony Pollard’s Role Against the Colts

Tony Pollard remains a focal point for Tennessee Titans' matchups:

• Dave predicts Pollard will “play a lot” in a competitive game scenario, potentially aggregating “in the neighborhood of 70 total yards” (04:27).

• Jonathan Taylor’s Impact: Taylor is expected to have a significant role, possibly “the best game of all” (04:27).

• Alternative Backups: If Titans shift to a passing-heavy approach, Taije Spears might emerge as a viable flex option, though with limited upside.

New Orleans Saints vs. Green Bay Packers: Kendra Miller’s Prospects

With Alvin Kamara doubtful, Kendra Miller steps into the spotlight:

• Dave evaluates Miller’s matchup against the Packers’ robust run defense, stating, “I think your best bet with Kendra Miller is that he somehow finds the end zone and gets about 60 yards on top of it” (06:14).

• Rookie Performance: Miller's rookie season showed promise with “11 targets, 10 catches, 117 yards” (07:01), though he’s yet to record a catch in the current season.

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2. Miami Dolphins vs. 49ers: Injury Impacts and Player Choices

49ers Backfield Concerns

Key injuries impact the 49ers’ running game:

• Isaac Garendo Out: Patrick Taylor is expected to lead the backfield but comes with uncertainties.

• Dave's Take on Patrick Taylor: “There's a ton of uncertainty there... it's not the best matchup” (07:30). Taylor may share the workload, making him a risky start in PPR leagues.

Dolphins’ Receiving Corps Adjustments

• Jaylen Waddle’s Injury: With Waddle out, Tyreek Hill and John Smith are poised to receive more targets.

• Malik Washington as a Value Pick: Dave praises Washington as a “cheap wide receiver” option with potential for increased targets (08:55), making him ideal for DFS lineups.

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3. Key Player Evaluations and Fantasy Recommendations

Jerome Ford (Browns) vs. Kendra Miller (Saints)

• Distance vs. Utilization: While Ford is reliable for consistent points, Miller presents a higher ceiling albeit with greater risk.

Jonathan Taylor (Titans)

• Despite previous setbacks, Taylor is considered a top-tier option with high upside, especially against opponents with weaker defenses.

Zach Ertz (Commanders)

• Returning through concussion protocols, Ertz is projected to be a valuable tight end option against the Eagles, potentially securing “10 plus PPR points” (11:30).

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4. Listener Q&A: Strategic Decisions for Critical Matchups

Flex Position Dilemmas

• Tyrone Tracy vs. Other Running Backs: Dave advises starting Tracy against the Falcons due to favorable conditions, even suggesting he’s preferable to Patrick Taylor or Kendrick Miller (09:58).

• Breece Hall’s Reliability: Trust in Hall’s availability and potential increased snap count makes him a strong start over other options like Pollard (10:22).

Wide Receiver Choices

• Garrett Wilson vs. Kendra Miller: For flexible PPR formats, Wilson edges out due to consistent target volume.

• Devonte Adams vs. Brian Thomas Jr.: While Adams is a staple, Thomas Jr. offers substantial upside against the Raiders’ defense, being a “top five” option (12:46).

Quarterback Decisions

• Jordan Love vs. Matthew Stafford: Stafford is favored for his consistent performance and favorable matchup over Love, who might not be needed to perform at his peak (15:12).

Tight End Selections

• Thurman Thomas vs. Brenton Strange: Laporta is recommended over Strange in both PPR and half-PPR formats for his target potential and recent performance spikes (12:19).

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5. Rapid Fire: Final Player Preferences

In a swift segment addressing quick-fire questions, Jamie and Dave provide their preferences on various player matchups:

• Anthony Richardson vs. Caleb Williams: Richardson is preferred for his higher upside.

• DK Metcalf vs. Adam Thielen: Thielen is chosen for full PPR formats, though Metcalf remains a strong option.

• Dalton Kincaid vs. Brenton Strange: Strange is favored for his consistent target distribution.

• Brock Purdy vs. Jaden Daniels: Daniels is selected for his favorable matchup potential.

• Brian Robinson Jr. vs. Ken Walker: Walker is the preferred choice in PPR leagues.

• Romeo Dobbs vs. Jalen McMillan: McMillan earns the nod for his recent performance and target volume.

• Jordan Love vs. Matthew Stafford: Stafford is the clear favorite for reliability and matchup advantage.

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6. Final Thoughts and Upcoming Previews

As the episode concludes, Jamie Eisenberg and Dave Richard emphasize the importance of strategic lineup decisions in Week 16 to secure playoff spots and overall season rankings. They also highlight upcoming content, including a preview show from CBS Sports HQ addressing gambling, fantasy perspectives, and NFL insights.

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Notable Quotes:

• Dave Richard on DTR’s passing: “when he throws 10 or more yards downfield, there's like a third of a chance that basket's completed” (03:07).

• On Tony Pollard’s potential: “he could have, you know, in the neighborhood of 70 total yards. Always a good shot to score” (04:27).

• Discussing Kendra Miller: “I think your best bet with Kendra Miller is that he somehow finds the end zone and gets about 60 yards on top of it” (06:14).

• About Malik Washington: “Washington certainly qualifies as a cheap wide receiver that you can throw into lineups” (08:55).

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This episode of Fantasy Football Today serves as an indispensable resource for fantasy managers aiming to polish their Week 16 strategies. With expert analyses, up-to-the-minute player updates, and actionable advice, Jamie and Dave equip listeners with the tools needed to navigate the final push of the fantasy season successfully.

Transcript

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[Kyle Long]

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[Jamie Eisenberg]

Here we go. It's week 16. It's fantasy football Today Express. I'm Jamie Eisenberg, that's Dave Richard. We got you covered. It's the Sunday of the semifinals and a lot to get to before you finalize those lineups. We had some fun action on Saturday and we'll get you everything you need to know for those lineups for Sunday. Dave, let's start with the situation in Cleveland where we got Dorian Thompson Robinson starting at quarterback. We got Jerome Ford starting at running back. Cedric Tillman not expected to play with the concussion. We don't know the update yet on David Najoku. Take me through the passing game for Cleveland with the backup quarterback. Jameis Winston as of now is going to be the emergency third quarterback. So we don't even have the option of him playing if DTR struggles.

[Dave Richard]

So if Najoku plays, I will be good with Nijoku. I think he'll be a top like 8ish fantasy tight end maybe a little bit higher because the one thing I know about Dorian Thompson Robinson is that when he throws 10 or more yards downfield, there's like a third of a chance that basket's completed. Yeah, a third of a chance. The data reflects that. But when it's a short throw and I'm sure the Browns are going to encourage him take those short throws. Well, that's what Nijoku has been doing all along, even with Jameis Winston. So I think he would probably he'd have a shot to lead the team in targets. If you ask me if he plays, if he also if he plays, I'm going to downgrade Jerry Judy even more. Judy's no better than a number three receiver even in full ppr. I'll like him a little bit better if Najoku sits out. But if Najoku plays, that's a competitor for targets in that short area. And so I would probably, I might move Judy out of my number three receiver range of being number four. Elijah Moore I've lost all faith and trust in. So he's out as well. And Jerome Ford, same guy, low end, number two, high end, number three type of fantasy running back. He'll probably get you 12 PPR points.

[Jamie Eisenberg]

We're most excited about Jerome Ford of the Browns as they take on the Bengals again. Nick Chubb is on IR dealing with that foot injury in Tennessee. We got Mason Rudolph starting a quarterback. We'll get some quick thoughts on the passing game, but Tony Pollard is going to play. What do you think about Pollard taking on the Colts today?

[Dave Richard]

Yeah, as long as it's a competitive game, Pollard will play a lot and I think it will be a competitive game because I don't know how many points the Colts are really going to put up. The guy who I think is really going to do well in the game, who might like force the the game script is going to be Jonathan Taylor, I think he ends up with the best game of all. But Pollard could have, you know, in the neighborhood of 70 total yards. Always a good shot to score. Once the Titans realize that they're behind and they need to go into full on passing mode, that's when you'll see a lot more of Taije Spears. He would be at best a flex play in full ppr. Pollard in that same range maybe a little bit higher than Jerome Ford.

[Jamie Eisenberg]

We've already gotten some good numbers from a couple of pass catching running backs this week. Javante Williams on Thursday, Jalen Warren yesterday. So yes, can't get you in that 11 to 12 ppr point range again. Mason Rudolph starting a quarterback so a little bit of an upgrade for Calvin Ridley maybe for Nick Westbrook. Akine you're talking about really as a low end number three fantasy receiver, not a must start guy. And then Nick Westbrook is still a desperation play. I think what Dave said about Elijah Moore kind of falls in line with.

[Dave Richard]

And if I may Jamie, for those who are desperate this morning for a tight end and you couldn't get your hands on Brenton Strange, take a peek at Go Conquo and what he did last week. And Mason Rudolph does have a tendency to lean on his tight ends. He won't be the only tight end that gets action in Tennessee, but he's certainly one of those guys that might get you 10 PPR points if you're really in need for a tight end.

[Jamie Eisenberg]

10 targets last week he's got 20 targets.

[Dave Richard]

Six from Rudolph too.

[Jamie Eisenberg]

Yep, six targets the week before and four targets the week before that. So he's been a little bit more involved lately. But 20 targets in his last two games. Let's go to New Orleans now where Monday night Spencer Rattler is going to start Marquez Valdez Gantling if you've been using him in deeper leagues, he's got an illness. He's question bowl to play. So keep an eye on that then. The big story obviously is Alvin Kamara not expected to play. He's listed as doubtful. What are your thoughts on Kendra Miller taking on the Packer?

[Dave Richard]

Like the talent, hate the situation. The packers run defense has allowed just 3.7 yards per carry to running backs over their past five games. Kendra Miller is is a good runner. He's got great vision, does have an explosive element to him. In college he had used his hands a little bit but in the pros we haven't seen that yet and there's always the chance that he gets replaced and I think it's It's a very good, good chance that he gets replaced on passing downs because I don't know how good his pass protection is compared to veterans in the league like Jamal Williams and others who might be on the Saints. So I'm going to rank him behind the guys that we've talked about, behind Pollard, behind Jerome Ford, certainly in PPR leagues. I think your best bet with Kendra Miller is that he somehow finds the end zone and gets about 60 yards on top of it. Not expecting a huge game from him.

[Jamie Eisenberg]

In his rookie season where we know he didn't play very much, did have 11 targets, 10 catches, 117 yards. So maybe he does get a little bit more involved in the passing game than what we've seen. He has no catches so far this season. Let's go to Miami where you got the 49ers and the Dolphins dealing with some injury situations. Isaac Garendo has been ruled out with the hamstring injury, so Patrick Taylor expected to be the lead running back. Jaylen Waddle has been ruled out with the knee injury. Tyreek Hill, however, will play, so I'll start with the 49ers backfield. Dave, what do you think about Patrick Taylor taking on Miami's defense?

[Dave Richard]

I don't love it. There's a ton of uncertainty there. When Kyle Shanahan talked about Patrick Taylor and his strengths, he mentioned what he does on special team. So I'm, I'm not 100% sure that Patrick Taylor will be the every down back. But what I do know about Patrick Taylor is he does have a track record of playing on third downs. I believe he's a good pass catcher, but when we're talking about talent there's a reason why he's fifth string. And so my guess, and it's just a guess, is that he is going to end up sharing the workload primarily with Keyshawn Vaughn, maybe a little bit of Israel Abanakanda, but it could be a mess and it's not the best matchup. Dolphins run defense has actually been pretty good lately and over the course of the season. So as good as the 49ers run game is, and the scheme is what we love and, and the matchup ultimately with Kyle Shannon taking on a team coached by someone who he helped bring up in the league. Yeah, I, I can't say that Patrick Taylor is going to be a huge winner for you. He's the type of running back that you'll, you'll probably start him over Kendra Miller in full PPR just because of his catching chops but there's so much uncertainty there.

[Jamie Eisenberg]

He's a flex at best for me and I do think we'll see a little bit of Kyle Jus check as well in the passing game also.

[Dave Richard]

He could be their third back. Jamie, you're absolutely right and Brock Purdy.

[Jamie Eisenberg]

Earlier this year has done a good job using his legs. So we'll see what happens with the Dolphins passing game. I don't think anybody's changing anything with Jalen Waddle out. Maybe a couple more targets for Tyree Kill and John who Smith and Devon agent. So you were starting those guys anyway?

[Dave Richard]

Yeah, I'm starting those guys anyway. If you're desperate at wide receiver. Malik Washington actually looked pretty good on a couple of targets last week. He's one of those guys that two is going to throw screens and quick sl and he's got great after catch speed. I would imagine he'll see an uptick in targets as well. A lot of the guys that we're talking about, Jamie, are going to be great for dfs. By the way, Washington certainly qualifies as a cheap wide receiver that you can throw into lineups.

[Jamie Eisenberg]

We're going to take a quick break when we get back, wrap up the injuries and answer some of your questions here on Fantasy Football Today Express.

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[Jamie Eisenberg]

All right, Dave, we'll go through these kind of rapid fire here. Tyrone Tracy expected to play. What do you think about him taking on the Falcons today?

[Dave Richard]

I'm good with him because I think Drew Locke will check down to him and so and and I'm not a big believer in this Falcons run defense either. They don't allow a lot of touchdowns, but they do allow a lot of yardage. I I would be okay starting Tyrone Tracy, more of a low end, number two running back.

[Jamie Eisenberg]

Yep. And better than Patrick Taylor. Better than Kendrick Miller. Just take a look at your lineup and see what you need. Braylon Allen is questionable, but really the story is Breece Hall. How do you feel about Breeze hall today taking on the Rams?

[Dave Richard]

I really am going to trust the jets here and the fact that they didn't put him on their practice report or injury report all week long suggest that he's going to be good to go. I still think he's going to share with these other running backs, but last week he didn't even play 50 of the snaps. This week I'm hoping he gets to like 55 of the snaps and maybe 70 of the running back workload. He's got a chance to score. He's a good number two running back. I think I'd start him out of everybody we've talked about today.

[Jamie Eisenberg]

Yes, Tony Pollard's kind of questionable for me in terms of who's better, but they're in a similar situation because of the injuries. But I did move Breeze hall up and I did take him out of start sit as the bust alert. Trey Benson's out for the Cardinals. That's good for James Connor. Jalen Coker is going to play more of a number three fantasy receiver. Receiver Xavier Leggett is out. Alec Pierce is out for the Colts. Kate Otten is out for the Bucks. Does that help Jalen McMillan even more?

[Dave Richard]

Of course. And McMillan is a guy you were on before anybody else was. I'm very impressed with. I've seen the last couple of weeks. I don't mind him as a high end.

[Jamie Eisenberg]

Number three wide receiver, 13 targets in his last two games. Three touchdowns in his last two games. Good matchup against the Cowboys. And finally Zach Ertz is expected to play coming through the concussion protocol. What do we think about him in his second revenge game against the Eagles?

[Dave Richard]

Yeah, I like him. I think that he's going to be needed in this offense. We know that the run game should struggle a little bit for Washington. Not expecting a big game from Brian Robinson. A couple of the running backs that we talked about, Pollard, Ford, I think they could be better than Brian Robinson this weekend. So Zach Ertz, short area target, could be in line for 10 plus PPR points. So he definitely makes the cut as a top 10 fantasy tight end.

[Jamie Eisenberg]

Especially if the Commanders are chasing points here and we have seen the Eagles give up some production to tight ends. Pat Fryerman scored against them last week, for example, and Ertz did score against them in the first matchup. All right, it's time for your questions now. Let's fire through a few of these here. Thug wants to know I'm back and forth with Kendra Miller and Garrett Wilson, the flexible PPR.

[Dave Richard]

It's easy for me, especially if it's full PPR.

[Jamie Eisenberg]

It's Garrett Wilson 100. Next question. Sleepy Beetle Sam Laporta or Brenton Strange? Let's assume ppr. Half ppr.

[Dave Richard]

Yeah. If it's not ppr, it's easy for Laporta and I think I have Laporta ranked ahead of Brenton Strange in my rankings. I don't think Brenton Strange is going to get double digit targets like he did last week. So give me the upside with Laporta.

[Jamie Eisenberg]

If Laporta had still been struggling, I would say make the pivot to Strange. But Laporta has been very hot.

[Dave Richard]

I have this decision to make him one of my semifinals, actually.

[Jamie Eisenberg]

Yeah, I would. I would go LaPorta if I was. Next question. Ppr. Devonte Adams or Brian Thomas Jr. Like.

[Dave Richard]

Devonte Adams a lot, but Brian Thomas Jr's top five for me against the Raiders. Even with Mac Jones under center, he's going to see a ton of targets. Huge, huge upside.

[Jamie Eisenberg]

Tough calls in 10 team league sometimes. All right, next question. Jacoby Myers or Devonte Smith in non ppr?

[Dave Richard]

I'm gonna. Oh, not so in full ppr. I think Jacoby's the answer. I did a little research on the Raiders passing game and Jacoby Myers against man coverage doesn't see as many targets as he does when it's against zone coverage and the Jaguars for stupid reasons. I can't explain why they've been playing a lot of man coverage all year long. I will take my chances with Devonte Smith, especially if we know Marshawn Lattimore is going to play for Washington. What if Lattimore shadows A.J. brown, makes it a tougher matchup for A.J. brown? Maybe that opens the door for more targets for Devonte Smith. But he's already. That door's already open because Dallas Goddard's out. So I'll take Devonte and non ppr.

[Jamie Eisenberg]

Yeah, easy and non ppr. Jacoby does not score touchdowns. Devonte scored each of his last two games. Next question. Good morning, Shannon. Full, full ppr. One Flex. Jerry Judy, Jonathan Taylor, Brian Robinson, Tyrone Tracy. Need to beat us. Beat my husband in the playoffs. So Shannon's playing her husband.

[Dave Richard]

The Tennessee Titans are without two of their top three healthy linebackers going into this game. And it might be three of three. And that combined with the fact that Jonathan Taylor owes us one and owes the Colts one after he. I don't know why he dropped the ball before he crossed the goal line. I'm sure he didn't mean to do it, but he did it last week. It cost his team. I think he gets retribution for that. I think he has maybe his best game of the year. I would start Jonathan Taylor even though it's full ppr.

[Jamie Eisenberg]

Yep. John and Taylor. Easy for me. All right, we're do ten more names only. We're going to go through these rapid fire. Here we go.

[Dave Richard]

Ready?

[Jamie Eisenberg]

Anthony Richardson or Caleb Williams?

[Dave Richard]

I believe I have Richardson. Right higher.

[Jamie Eisenberg]

Okay, I'll take Caleb Geno Smith or.

[Dave Richard]

I'll. I think I'll run run with Rudolph.

[Jamie Eisenberg]

I'd go Rudolph as well. Next one, DK Metcalf or Adam Thielen?

[Dave Richard]

Thielen. Especially full ppr.

[Jamie Eisenberg]

I'll take Metcalf. Next question. Dalton Kincaid or Brenton Strange? People.

[Dave Richard]

This is one. I'll go with Brenton Strange.

[Jamie Eisenberg]

Strange as well. Next one, Brock Purdy or Jaden Daniels?

[Dave Richard]

Daniels.

[Jamie Eisenberg]

Yep. David Najoku or Jerome Ford. Ppr Najoku. All right, you have the opportunity to make that decision because you'll find out if Najoka is playing. I'll take Jerome Fork. Next one, Jared Goff or Kyler Murray.

[Dave Richard]

Close. I believe they're back to back in my rankings. I have golf one spot higher.

[Jamie Eisenberg]

I will take Kyler in all formats. I'm sure Dave would take Kyler and four points for passing touchdowns. Next one, Brian Robinson Jr. Or Ken Walker. PPR.

[Dave Richard]

Walker.

[Jamie Eisenberg]

Agreed. Next one. Romeo Dobbs or Jalen McMillan?

[Dave Richard]

PPR. McMillan.

[Jamie Eisenberg]

McMillan Thomas. I don't know. I'm not counting. So you tell me when we're done.

[Dave Richard]

Who is it? Kyron Williams or who?

[Jamie Eisenberg]

Jamie Chuba.

[Dave Richard]

I will take Chiron over Chuba.

[Jamie Eisenberg]

All right. Kyron over 2, but I agree. Next one or is that we're done? Not one more. All right. Jordan Love or Matthew Stafford? Last one. We'll do Stafford. Stafford as well. Jordan Love could have a huge game but I don't think they want him to. Not that they don't want him to have a huge game, they just don't need him to have a huge game because I think we'll see a lot of Josh Jacobs little offense for the Saints and should be an easy win for the packers if they do what they do. And the Saints offense looks last. Looks the way it did the last time. Spencer at starts. All right, we're going to do this again at 11:30am Eastern right here on Fantasy Football today. You can also check out CBS Sports HQ at 10am for a little preview of the Week 16 action as well from a gambling perspective, fantasy perspective, NFL perspective. We have you covered all day today on CBS Sports. For Dave Richard, I'm Jamie Eisenberg and Thomas Schaefer as well. Thanks for watching Fantasy Football. Paramount Podcasts.