League-Winning Mid-Round RBs! (06/30 Fantasy Football Podcast)

Summary

Fantasy Football Today Podcast Summary Episode: League-Winning Mid-Round RBs! (06/30 Fantasy Football Podcast) Release Date: June 30, 2025

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1. Introduction & Host Updates

The episode kicks off with hosts Adam Azer, Dave Richard, and Heath Cummings greeting listeners and discussing personal updates. Adam shares, “[02:01] I had a personal family issue last week that changed my schedule dramatically. In unrelated news, I need a car.”

2. Listener Email: Lions' Offense Insights

At [03:55], Dave Richard presents an email from Eric west of Windsor, Canada, discussing the Detroit Lions' indoor and outdoor game splits. Eric highlights, “The league gave the Lions a gift. Of all those indoor games last year, the Lions played 14 indoors and this year only 10.”

Heath responds at [04:45], “I didn't, but I will now steal this from Eric and use it in future arguments against the Lions.”

3. FFT Dynasty Update

Heath Cummings informs listeners about the upcoming FFT Dynasty content, mentioning, “[07:45] This year we've got all kinds of good shows. We only got one show this week because we are taking the 4th of July off.”

4. News & Notes

Dave Richard shares brief updates on NFL players:

• “[07:45] San Francisco cornerback D'Amador Lenore was arrested for obstruction.”
• “Free agent kicker Justin Tucker is suspended for 10 games.”
• “Tennessee cornerback Legarius Snead, two years ago with the Chiefs, had a disappointing second year but is now healthy.”

5. Main Topic: League-Winning Mid-Round Running Backs

a. Historical Performance Analysis

Dave Richard analyzes the performance of mid-round running backs (Rounds 5-8 in a 12-team league) over the past three years:

• 2022: Josh Jacobs (RB20 ADP) finished as RB3.
• 2023: Camara and Rashad White were the standout RBs, finishing in the top 10 per game.
• 2024: James Conner and David Montgomery continued to provide great value, consistently finishing in the top 16 per game.

He remarks, “[09:05] I looked at these picks according to Fantasy Pros ADP over the last three years. In 2022, we had 16 running backs in this range. 2023, 14 running backs. 2024, 14 running backs. And right now we have 18 for this year. So it's a lot.”

b. Busts and Hits

The hosts discuss notable busts, including:

• 2022: Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Kareem Hunt, Chase Edmonds, Miles Sanders.
• 2023: Zamir White, Raheem Mostert, Javante Williams, Jalen Warren, Devin Singletary.
• Discussion Insight: “It's rare when we come across a player and we go, I just don't want to draft him... But this is, to Heath's point, if the value on a player is so good that you just can't help yourself...”

6. Player Analysis by Draft Round

a. Round 5 Picks [19:47]

Players Discussed: Omarion Hampton, Ken Walker, Chuba Hubbard, Joe Mixon, Alvin Camara

• Adam Azer: “These running backs... have potential to finish as top 10 guys. They've done it before from Mixon, Walker, Chuba.”
• Heath Cummings: Expresses concern about Chuba Hubbard’s upside compared to veterans like Joe Mixon and Alvin Camara.

b. Round 6 Picks [30:12]

Players Discussed: R.J. Harvey, James Conner, Travion Henderson, DeAndre Swift, David Montgomery, Caleb Johnson, Quinshawn Judkins

• Dave Richard: Highlights David Montgomery’s consistent performance: “He's been such a great value. A great value. He was number 11 running back per game in his first 14 games.”
• Heath Cummings: “I project DeAndre Swift as RB17. He absolutely in Ben Johnson's offense has top 12 upside.”

c. Round 7 Picks [41:29]

Players Discussed: Tony Pollard, Isaiah Pacheco, Aaron Jones

• Adam Azer: Prefers Aaron Jones over Pollard due to Jones’s track record and role in the Minnesota offense.
• Heath Cummings: Concerns about Aaron Jones’s age and the potential rise of Jordan Mason.

d. Round 8 Picks [54:09]

Players Discussed: Brian Robinson Jr., Jordan Mason, Jalen Warren

• Adam Azer: “I think Brian Robinson Jr. is a solid pick here. He's going to be a liability. Touchdown dependent.”
• Heath Cummings: “Jordan Mason and Jalen Warren in round eight, I don't think I'd make those picks.”

7. Recap Exercise & Listener Interaction [39:54]

The hosts engage in a listener activity where they evaluate whether to draft specific players in their respective rounds:

• Example: Omarion Hampton in Round Five – Adam Azer: “I'm good with that.”
• Outcome: Consensus on several players being good fits for their designated rounds.

8. Conclusion & Next Episode Preview

The episode wraps up with a brief discussion on upcoming topics, including a deep dive into the John Who Smith trade, and a nod to future episodes focusing on Dynasty leagues.

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Notable Quotes:

• Adam Azer [09:05]: “Four of them were annoying because you thought I was like taking extra vacation last week. And the other four, we learned a little bit about Jared Goff and that's been the recap of the first 10 minutes of this show.”

• Heath Cummings [15:40]: “Don't go chasing waterfalls, Dave. Stick to the rivers and the lakes that you're used to.”

• Dave Richard [37:03]: “He finished 11.6 fantasy points, 6 per pass in touchdown leagues on 22 pass attempts at Green Bay. But then week 16 and 17 were both outdoors. He scored 31.3 points at Chicago, 31.8 fantasy points at San Francisco.”

• Heath Cummings [25:51]: “I've got Tony Pollard in round six.”

• Adam Azer [35:04]: “But this is an example of drafting somebody based more on hope than actual facts, stats, etc. This is the type of running back that could burn us.”

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This comprehensive summary captures all key points, discussions, insights, and conclusions from the "League-Winning Mid-Round RBs" episode of Fantasy Football Today, providing valuable information for fantasy football enthusiasts looking to optimize their mid-round running back selections.

Transcript

[Adam Azer]

I think you're on mute. Workday starting to sound the same.

[Dave Richard]

I think you're on mute. Find something that sounds better for your career on LinkedIn. With LinkedIn job collections you can browse curated collections by relevant industries and benefits like Flexpto or hybrid workplaces so you.

[Adam Azer]

Can find the right job for you.

[Dave Richard]

Get [e-mail] jobs finding where you fit.

[Adam Azer]

LinkedIn knows how to 5am I'm up with a crisp Celsius energy drink running 12 miles today. Grab a green juice, quick change and head to work. Meetings, workshops.

[Dave Richard]

One more Celsius. No slowing down.

[Adam Azer]

Working late but obviously still meeting the.

[Dave Richard]

Girls for a little dancing.

[Adam Azer]

Celsius live fit. Go grab a cold refreshing Celsius at.

[Dave Richard]

Your local retailer or locate [e-mail].

[Adam Azer]

This.

[Heath Cummings]

Is Fantasy Football Today from CBS Sports.

[Adam Azer]

What a play. Can you believe this?

[Heath Cummings]

Again it's time to dominate your fantasy league.

[Dave Richard]

Off to the races and he stays on his feet. This is going to go the distance.

[Heath Cummings]

Now here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie and Heath.

[Dave Richard]

Welcome in everybody. It is Monday, June 30. We are almost into July. July is training camp month and it's draft a thon month. We'll tell you more about that tomorrow. And I'm Adam Azer with Dave Richard and Heath Cummings. This is a holiday week getting ready for the 4th of July on Friday. We have episodes for you Monday through Thursday. Today we're talking about mid round running backs and right now I look, I consider mid round to be rounds five through eight in a 12 team league. So that begins with pick 49 goes to pick 96. Right now fantasy pros ADP has 18 running backs in that range which is more than usual. Usually it's closer to 14 or 15. So it starts with Omarion Hampton. Goes all the way to Jalen Warren. Hello Dave, how we doing today? How was your weekend?

[Adam Azer]

I had a good weekend, had a nice time. You mentioned that July is around the corner. It is a big month in the Richard house. It's my son's birthday, it's my birthday. It's my annual pilgrimage. I can say that word to Las Vegas. It is. It is the last month that we can really recharge our batteries before we cannonball into training camp in the preseason and a lot of stuff coming our way. I am looking forward to that. I am ready for this season to.

[Dave Richard]

Get rolling, fired up. Heath, I can't remember, was Dave on the show last week? I feel like he was briefly.

[Adam Azer]

Well, I had some things come up in my life last week that kept me from being.

[Dave Richard]

I couldn't remember if last week was the week you were away or the week before.

[Adam Azer]

I was away for parts of both weeks.

[Heath Cummings]

The answer is yes.

[Dave Richard]

Okay.

[Heath Cummings]

Dave needs to recharge his battery after taking the last two weeks off.

[Adam Azer]

Hold on. I. I had a. I had a personal family issue last week that changed my schedule dramatically. In unrelated news, I need a car.

[Dave Richard]

Okay.

[Adam Azer]

I'm just glad my daughter survived.

[Heath Cummings]

Yes.

[Dave Richard]

Oh, wow. Really? Geez, I didn't know that.

[Adam Azer]

Yeah, I. We can talk about at the end of the show if you really want to.

[Dave Richard]

Oh, good.

[Adam Azer]

I don't know if I can. I think I can, but.

[Dave Richard]

Well, I'm sorry to hear that.

[Adam Azer]

Yeah. So go ahead and chuckle away, Adam. Oh, never hear, boy. He's always out and about because he's such a cool dude he can't contribute to the court.

[Dave Richard]

Oh, they're laughing at you. Okay. All right. Email of the day.

[Adam Azer]

Why don't you go eat some oatmeal?

[Dave Richard]

Whatever. This. That thing got so ridiculous. Email of the day. If you give me one second, it is from Eric from somewhere west of Windsor, Canada.

[Adam Azer]

West of Windsor, Cat. Let's go with Allen Park, Michigan.

[Dave Richard]

Okay. And subject line was I agree with Heath.

[Heath Cummings]

Sounds like a great email.

[Dave Richard]

Great email. Email of the year. I keep hearing the pros and cons of the Lions offense heading into the 2025 season, but I haven't heard anyone bring up golf's home road and indoor outdoor splits. The league gave the Lions a gift. Of all those indoor games last year, he was indoor 14 games last year and this year only 10. Is that being factored into any regression? And the whole I agree with Heath sentiment is Heath is a little bit lower on the Lions. Not low on the Lions, but a little bit lower. New offensive coordinator lost their superstar center and so forth. So yeah. Heath, did you factor in the indoor outdoor stuff for golf?

[Heath Cummings]

I didn't, but I will now steal this from Eric and use it in future arguments against the Lions. Funny thing. And just to promote some content that's coming out on the site this week, I'm doing version 2.0 of my sleepers and I'm using Dave's only fans mock FTP. I mean fans only adp to kind of look at where people are being drafted early in drafts. And found something really interesting because I am the low guy on almost all the Lions. But Jared Goff, who finished his QB6 last year I have ranked as QB12. Is being drafted as QB19.

[Dave Richard]

Yeah.

[Heath Cummings]

So it seems like everybody is terrified of regression for Jared Goff. That scaredness, though, doesn't show up in the ADP of literally any other lion. Like, we're expecting the Lions to mostly have career years, except Jared Goff takes a huge step back.

[Dave Richard]

So.

[Heath Cummings]

So Jared Goff is definitely in my sleepers column. There will probably be a couple of lions in my busts.

[Dave Richard]

Yeah.

[Adam Azer]

Just goes to show you how big of a factor ADP is when we talk about sleepers and breakouts and busts. It's rare when we come across a player and we go, I just don't want to draft him. I don't care what round it's in, I don't want to draft them. But this is, to Heath's point, if, if the value on a player is so good that you just, you can't help yourself, you could say, all right, look, I know Jared Goff's not going to be as good as he was last year, then yeah, if you can get him in the double digit round, I love that. And I'm taking Jared Goff as, as my QB one if need be, with a double digit round pick. Last thing, Adam. Two of their last three road games this year are indoors and that last game, that is outdoors at Chicago. Tough weather in January, but It's in week 18. So there's a chance that golf A could throw more this year and B could finish the season quite nicely because he's got a lot of indoor games down the fantasy playoff stretch.

[Dave Richard]

He doesn't have a cold weather game unless Washington and Philadelphia in November, November 9 and November 16 could be cool, but after those games, home, home, home at the Rams, home at Minnesota. So. And then you mentioned at Chicago also for Jared Goff, because I thought this was a great email and a good point. But his three outdoor games, he only played three outdoor games last year. He scored 11.6 fantasy points, 6 point per pass in touchdown leagues on 22 pass attempts at Green Bay. But then week 16 and 17 were both outdoors. He scored 31.3 points at Chicago, 31.8 fantasy points at San Francisco. It didn't matter last year. And his, his passer rating in three outdoor games was 129.2. So it just didn't matter for, for Jared Goff last year. He was so hot at the end of the year. All right, stuff to keep in mind, Heath. What do we got on FFT Dynasty this year? This week?

[Heath Cummings]

This year we've got all kinds of good shows. We only got one show this week because we are taking the 4th of July off. So we will be talking tomorrow. We're going to do a little march through the positions in July and just kind of look at the state of the position in Dynasty. We'll have Jeff Blaylock on tomorrow to help me kick that off from football, guys.

[Dave Richard]

All right, thank you very much. We will be tuning into that. You can watch FFT Dynasty at YouTube.com fantasy football today. You can listen to it in this feed in the FFT Dynasty feed. But here we go with our news and notes. Not a lot. San Francisco cornerback d' Amador Lenore, very good cornerback. He was arrested for obstruction. Free agent kicker Justin Tucker, suspended 10 games. And Tennessee cornerback Legarius Snead two years ago with the Chiefs. He was amazing. Last year he was a complete injury bust. He had a number of injuries last year. He says he is healthy. That's good news for the Titans. All right, mid round running backs. So what I want to do is just take a look at the last three years of running backs in this range. This would be rounds five through eight in a 12 team league. But before I do that, I have to find the document. So how's it going over there guys? How have the last eight minutes of your life been?

[Adam Azer]

Four of them were annoying because you thought I was like taking extra vacation last week. And the other four, we learned a little bit about Jared Goff and that's been the recap of the first 10 minutes of this show.

[Dave Richard]

Okay, I'm good now. All right. So I looked at these, at these picks according to fantasy pros, ADP over the last three years, PPR ADP 2022, we had 16 running backs. 2023, 14 running backs. 2024, 14 running backs in this range. And again right now we have 18 for this year. So it's a lot. But who are the best mid round picks on a per game basis like the home runs? 2022, it was Josh Jacobs. He was the first one drafted in this range. Okay. He was RB20 and ADP finished as RB3. Breece hall as a rookie, seven games he played. He was amazing. And Tony Pollard, that was a year he and Zeke were both very good for. Fantasy Pollard, had that huge second half. They were both, they were all top 10 per game. So Jacobs, Breeze Hall, Tony Pollard, 2023, the best ones were Camara and Rashad White. They were the only ones who finished top 10 per game. But also James Connor, Isaiah Pacheco and David Montgomery. They were all top 16 per game. So Connor Kelsey Camara, Rashad White, Pacheco Montgomery.

[Adam Azer]

We're cool with a running back that finishes top 16 per game with around five plus pick.

[Dave Richard]

Absolutely. Yeah.

[Adam Azer]

Great.

[Dave Richard]

2024. The best guys were Connor again, Aaron Jones and David Montgomery again. By the way, James Connor and David Montgomery are in the ADP in this range. Again. They have been two of the best picks in this range two years in a row. I don't know if I found really any commonality or anything, you know, any thread here. It may just be, you know, random. But if we look at the busts. Clyde Edwards, Elaire Kareem Hunt, Chase Edmonds, Miles Sanders. Two years ago, Alexander Madison, Dalvin Cook. The year he signed with the jets on Aug. 14, Breeze hall was coming off the ACL injury. People got excited about Dalvin Cook. Yeah, terrible.

[Adam Azer]

That was one of the easiest fades ever.

[Dave Richard]

Cam Acres, A.J. dillon. These were the busts. Raheem Mostert, Zamir White. These are last year. Zamir White, Raheem Moster, Javante Williams, Jalen Warren, Devin Singletary. These are non injury busts. I think maybe the only thing I found was the busts. I think were a lot of guys that maybe they were day three picks. Maybe we were more enticed by the role. Guys like Zamir White, Devin Singletary, last year. Did I say the year before? Alexander Madison, Dalvin Cook, Cam Akers. I don't know. I felt like the only thing I could really find here was seemed like the busts were guys that maybe we didn't believe in the talent as much. We were just kind of hoping for the circumstances.

[Heath Cummings]

I think that's. That's probably right. Thought it was interesting. You're going through all of those big hits and those busts. You never said the name DeAndre Swift, did you?

[Dave Richard]

No, I guess he wasn't in that range.

[Heath Cummings]

I guess there were a couple of years he wasn't and there were a couple years he was and he just finished in the middle. So he wasn't a bust or a huge.

[Dave Richard]

That's. You know what? I think that's exactly what it was.

[Heath Cummings]

He's definitely in that range again this year. Like there's some guys that you draft in this range and they just finish RB18 through 24.

[Dave Richard]

It's just like, okay, yep, you're absolutely right. He was last year he was in this range and he finished his RB24, which he basically does every year. We'll talk about him more because I know he's one of your favorites, but who worries you in this range? I Gave you the list of who's in it. I guess I should probably give it to the audience. Right. This year it's a lot of rookies, which I think is exciting. Amarian Hampton starts it off. He's 48th and ADP, so he's barely in the on the list. But here it is. If you're watching on YouTube, you can see it. Hampton, Ken Walker, Chuba Hubbard, Alvin Camara, Joe Mixon. You know, right there. Those are guys in, in Walker, Hubbard, Mix and Camara that I wouldn't be surprised if they're some or all of them are fourth round picks by the end of it and they're not in this range. But for now they are. RJ Harvey, James Connor, Travion Henderson, Deandre Swift, David Montgomery, Caleb Johnson, Quinshawn Judkins, Tony Pollard, Isaiah Pacheco, Aaron Jones, Brian Robinson Jr. Jordan Mason, Jalen Warren. Those last three feel a little bit different. They're the round eight guys. Brian Robinson Jr. Jordan Mason, jalen Warren. But I don't know. I didn't say a lot of names or I'm going. I don't know about their talents. You know, I don't see a lot of Alexander Madison's and Zamir Whites in here. Personally.

[Heath Cummings]

I worry the most, probably. I mean, I think the most obvious is Jordan Mason and his teammate Aaron Jones. I would draft quite a bit higher, but you got to worry about him because of age. I think the second lowest guy. Mason definitely ranked the lowest. I think he's the only one that I have ranked outside of the top 96, which would be round eight. My second lowest which is in round eight is Isaiah Pacheco. I know we had a comment in the chat that they just hate all of the Chiefs running backs right now. And I kind of feel the same. But Pacheco worries me a lot just because we, I know we're hopeful that he recovers from the leg injury and returns to the form and gets the workload that he. That he had for about 18 games. But there's a lot of things that could go wrong with Pacheco.

[Adam Azer]

A lot of things that can go wrong with the rookies as well. And there's a lot of uncertainty when it comes to those Vikings running backs. I think there's a lack of hope for upside. In the case of Brian Robinson Jr. He just feels kind of safe. Ish. And thinking back to the names of the guys who didn't perform to expectations that you gave five minutes ago, Adam, I, I feel like their, their draft value Was based on hope and not based on facts. Like the guys that did well, the mid round running backs that did well. You mentioned James Connor's name a couple of times. David Montgomery's name a couple of times. Established running backs. We've seen them play well before. They got the opportunity to keep doing what they did. They scored a lot of touchdowns. I think that's maybe where the focus should go. To quote the legendary poets tlc, don't go chasing waterfalls.

[Dave Richard]

Oh, I thought you were gonna say you don't want no scrubs.

[Adam Azer]

Please stick to the rivers and the lakes that you're used to. So when. Maybe that's the first lesson that we can take away. Here is the. The running backs that are tried and true. You kind of know what their roles. You don't kind of know. You definitely know what their roles are going to be. You've got a good expectation for them. They're veterans. They've done this before. Those are the rivers in the lakes. We're used to them. Stick to.

[Heath Cummings]

Yeah. That was beautiful, Dave. Yeah, thank you. I. I think also it's. It's worth saying, like, I understand why we're grouping all of these guys together and mid round running backs, but we probably need to differentiate between hopes and concerns in round five versus round eight.

[Dave Richard]

Yeah. Yeah.

[Heath Cummings]

Because those feel like massively different parts of the draft.

[Dave Richard]

Absolutely. I was going to make that point. I'm glad you did. I mean, there's a huge difference between Ken Walker and Brian Robinson Jr. Yeah. So we'll talk about that as we go through it. You know what? I really think I could be missing something, but I think over the last three years, Breece hall was actually. I think Damien, Damian Pierce and Breeze hall have the same rookie year. I think so. Who is this Damien Pierce and Breece Hall?

[Adam Azer]

I want to say. Yes. Let me double check.

[Dave Richard]

Damien Pierce. Yes. I think those are the only two rookies that have been in this range according to fantasy pros adp. So that's why this year's so different. You've got five, you got him.

[Heath Cummings]

Well, normally we either get so excited about the rookies that they're not in round five. And I'd be really surprised when we get to draft day. If Hampton is actually in round five, I think he'll probably be round four.

[Dave Richard]

But the others will be in this range. Right. And that'll be. That'll be four guys. That'll be Harvey, Henderson, Johnson, Judkins.

[Heath Cummings]

Yeah. And I think how you feel about those guys is probably highly dependent on your format. Like I don't have a lot of. I'm much more confident in Henderson in this range in full PPR and pretty worried about him and none and I'm much more confident in Caleb Johnson and non PPR and pretty worried about him in full.

[Dave Richard]

All right, let's take a break here and let's talk about these guys starting with the round five players. We'll be right back on Fantasy football Today.

[Adam Azer]

This episode is brought to you by State Farm. Knowing you could be saving money for the things you really want is a great feeling. Talk to a State Farm agent today.

[Dave Richard]

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[Adam Azer]

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[Dave Richard]

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[Heath Cummings]

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[Adam Azer]

Pro baller. Lonzo Ball for buzzballs ready to go. Cocktails take 12 buzzballs just dropped their biggest blue balls. Script says Biggie's blue balls. Lonzo take 13.

[Heath Cummings]

Blue balls just dropped their biggest buzz balls.

[Dave Richard]

Ugh.

[Adam Azer]

Let's try a vocal exercise. Buzz balls, Biggies. Blue balls. Buzz balls.

[Heath Cummings]

Biggies.

[Adam Azer]

Blue balls. Big balls. Just drop. Get blue balls. This season with buzz balls, please drink responsibly.

[Heath Cummings]

Buzz balls available in spirit, wine and malt.

[Dave Richard]

15% alcohol by volume.

[Heath Cummings]

Buzz, Texas.

[Dave Richard]

Comment from JG There should be a poll. Which song should Dave have quoted? Waterfalls or Scrubs? Oh, man, they both work. We gotta get. Is there another TLC song we can get going here? All right, let's start with Omarion Hampton, Ken Walker, Chuba Hubbard, Joe Mixon, Alvin Camara. I think there's, you know, an obvious reason why Walker, Hubbard, Mix, and Camara, you know, all belong in this con. In this same conversation, three of them are, are quite proven. Hubbard's coming off a great year. And then you've got Amari and Hampton the rookie. So, Dave, how do you view these five guys? Do you think Hampton, Ken Walker, Chuba Hubbard, Joe Mixon, and Alvin Camara. How many of them do you think should go before round five? Should be top 48 picks?

[Adam Azer]

I think all of them should be. I don't think that any of, if any of these guys are sitting in round five in a full PPR league. Someone's gifting you some help in fantasy football. I, I honestly, you could talk me into Chuba Hubbard. Maybe. Running backs are flying off the board and you gotta have one the very, very end of round three. Like, if you had to do it, you could do that same thing with Camara. To me, they're. They're both right there on that fringe early round four. I'm fine with those guys. Nixon will be in that group, if not even a shade higher. If he shows up at training camp, he's fine. There's no issues with his, with his ankle or his foot. And he's running like he did at. At the end of last year. I think everybody would take that guy who finished strong for Houston back in their fantasy lineups. And then Walker has upside is a good fit for what Seattle's going to do this year. They're changing their rushing scheme. They're going to do a lot more zone running. They're going to use the running backs in the passing game. Walker proved that he could do that last year. He's got two big question marks. Can he stay healthy, which is a question mark that we have for pretty much every running back and will he be able to have a grip on the majority of the touches because we know that Zach Charbonnet is there. Last year it looked like Charbonnet was the better fit for Seattle's offense. Is it going to be that way this year? To be determined. But those, all these running backs, I don't know about Chuba, but the other three running backs, they've got potential to finish as top 10 guys. And we've seen it before from Mixon. We've seen it in spurts from Walker. We saw it last year from Chuba. These guys have proven it before. Not as much hope as part of the argument we can look back and see factually they've performed for fantasy managers. Makes me feel good about taking them with a top 50 pick.

[Heath Cummings]

And to your point, Adam, I think is a very good chance that these guys that are showing in round five will creep.

[Adam Azer]

Yeah.

[Heath Cummings]

Into round four by the time we get to August. I'm really disappointed I didn't get to see Adam's live reaction. I stunned him, Dave. He cannot respond.

[Adam Azer]

He looks, he looks frozen by it. At Heath, whatever your name is.

[Heath Cummings]

Like I. You said Chuba Hubbard, you're not sure that he has top 10 upside. Is that because you think that Rico Dowdle and or Trevor ETN will have a bigger role?

[Adam Azer]

No.

[Heath Cummings]

You think. Do you think that Chuba's just wasn't Chuba pretty close to top 10 last year?

[Adam Azer]

He was. I. He was 16.1 PPR points per game. And I, I don't know. I can double check real quick where that finished, but I think that that's his ceiling I think that that's. If you draft you, but Hubbard, you go, okay. He can probably be good for about 14 PPR points per game. I think he's a good running back, and I think he'll lead the way for. For the Panthers. I think he earned it. The contract that he earned last year, the extension that he earned, dude, they're paying him a lot, so they obviously believe in him. They're not paying Rico that much. Trevor Etien was a day three pick. I think Chuba Hubbard's going to be the lead running back on an ascending offense. That's a guy I like to get, but I don't think he's got the same type of upside as the other three running backs that Adam brought up. Mixon, Walker, Alvin, Camara. Like, those guys, certainly they've done it longer than Chuba. Chuba has, like, really, like, one good year of consistent fantasy production. And so I think it's easier to buy into those other veterans rather than to. To say, all right, Chuba is going to be the best one of the bunch. Maybe he's the safest one of the bunch because other than Walker, he's. He's young and he's got the opportunity and. And all that stuff, you can kind of buy into a little bit more. He finished 13th in PPR points per game last year. Could he finish that high again this year? I don't. I wouldn't be surprised by that. But I think Walker, I think the other three guys have more upside, provided that they. They play a lot. I don't think any of their roles are really changing.

[Heath Cummings]

So I've got another question. Because we talk about mixing and Walker together, they're back to back on this list. Seems like it's usually around later, and it's a couple of players later on the list Adam gave us that we get to the name of James Connor. What's the difference between Camara and Mixon and Connor? Because Connor's been incredible when he's been healthy. Camaro was hurt last year. Mixon's in a walking boot right now. Is Connor a bigger risk than those guys?

[Adam Azer]

I. I don't think we can count on him for the same type of receiving production as Camara. I don't have to say. Think I can say. I know that Camara has much more upside and full PPR. Khmer averaged 19 PPR points per game last year. That's wicked good, everybody. So I'm. I'm totally fine with Camara ahead of Congress, same age. Connor might score a few more Touchdowns. That's a non PPR issue, not a full PPR issue. And so Camara's there. Mixing can fall behind Conor if he's slow to recover from his injuries. Maybe he doesn't start training camp on time. What if he starts training camp on the PUP list? Heat? That'll make me a lot more nervous about taking Joe Mixon, especially if that creeps. Yeah, into mid August, late August, we just don't know. And so that's why we've got to be a little bit flexible when it comes to mixing. And certainly there's a world where Connor finishes well ahead of mixing in PPR points per game. But Connor is that running back. You can tell me if you agree with this or not. He's the running back that no one is like super excited about. But everyone would still be happy satisfied to draft as, as a good number two fantasy rb.

[Heath Cummings]

Yeah, I've got him at the. I guess at the 5, 6 turn. So I do have him about a round behind Camara and I've got a Camara about a round behind mixing. I'm. I haven't discounted mixing for the injury yet because they've acted like it's not a big deal. But that's enough about the old guys. Let's talk about the rookies. I don't think Adam should have even put Amari and Hampton on this show. I was making a joke about him creeping into round four and I see in the notes that he's 48th in ADP right now. That is round four. But Amari and Hampton and there's a pretty big gap and then RJ Harvey, then a little gap and then Henderson and then a decent gap and then Johnson and Judkins.

[Adam Azer]

Yeah.

[Heath Cummings]

Is that how you see it or is Harvey still up in that place? It seems like in. In the ADP here, he's still up in the place where he was before the Dobbins signing. I wonder how. Let's forget about Hampton for a second because I think most. I don't have him second, but most people do amongst the rookies. When you get to Harvey, Henderson and Johnson and Judkins, do you have a strong preference? Should they all be in the same range or is it right that Johnson and Judkins are around or two later than the other guys?

[Adam Azer]

I've got Henderson and Judkins ahead of Johnson and Harvey. Harvey is last on that list. I bet. I bet if we did a bunch of mock drafts, Harvey would be the last rookie running back off the board because of the Dobbins arrival in Denver. So I, I would be a lot less excited about drafting him than the other running backs on this list. And that might. Listen, this is a dip. This might be actually an incentive for fantasy managers to go after RJ Harvey because instead of getting him, dude, we were taking him in like round five in some of our early mocks after the draft. And I remember saying on the show this wasn't one of our favorite prospects. Like I was at the Senior bowl and I watched him practicing. He was good, but he didn't like blow me away. I didn't think that he was like the greatest running back in the world, but who cares about my opinion when Sean Payton drafts him in round two and the entire front office says, yeah, this was our kind of our pet project going into the draft. Clearly they had some designs on RJ Harvey. And then after their first OTAs, they bring in JK Dobbins. And so like that's, that's a, that's an alert in my mind that something isn't perfect in Denver where they thought, okay, R.J. harvey is going to be our guy, no questions asked. Star running back. Well then why are they signing J.K. dobbins? And to me, I would say that they just wanted to have an insurance policy and maybe somebody who could work passing downs. And I don't necessarily want to invest too much in a running back, especially a rookie that's not going to be on third down, that's not going to have the chance to catch some extra check down passes. Maybe somebody who doesn't work at the goal line as much as, as an established veteran like J.K. dobbins. Harvey, to me right now he's last on this list of running backs. I'd put Henderson first. This is full PPR. I think he's got a chance to get 50 receptions this year. I worry about his touchdowns, but I think the receptions and the fact that he could eventually grow into a really good role. I've done the research on, on Patriots, not Patriots running backs. Excuse me, Josh McDaniels running backs. Most of the time the best running backs under McDaniels average around 14 touches per game. I think Henderson can get there. I think if we're getting him in round five, maybe even early round six, I think that's good value in full ppr. But this is an example of drafting somebody based more on hope than actual facts, stats, etc. This is the type of running back, at least based on the profile that Adam put out there earlier on the show, that could burn us. So you don't want to reach for players like that.

[Heath Cummings]

Have we ever made mention of the fact that this is not the first skill position player that Sean Payton has drafted in round two since he joined the Broncos? No, no, he took more of a round two.

[Dave Richard]

Yeah.

[Heath Cummings]

Who has seen 85 targets in his first two seasons in the league.

[Adam Azer]

Sure.

[Dave Richard]

Yeah.

[Adam Azer]

That's fair.

[Dave Richard]

Round two running backs are different, I think, than round two receivers, though. But it's a good point. I didn't like the Mims. I remember arguing on draft night about the Mims pick. By the way, my power went out earlier, so thank you guys for filling in.

[Adam Azer]

Well, show was really good the last.

[Dave Richard]

It sounded good. I mean, I can. What I heard sounded good. Yeah, no, it's a good point. So we're. We're talking about the round six guys now. What?

[Heath Cummings]

Basically what we did was we talked about the old guys, Camara, Mixon and Connor. We just talked about the rookies we were getting ready to transition to. Those guys in the middle. That DeAndre Swift, David Montgomery, Tony Pollard range.

[Dave Richard]

Well, you didn't go in order. You kind of skipped around here by.

[Adam Azer]

Kind of like types.

[Dave Richard]

All right.

[Adam Azer]

Types of running backs, I guess they're.

[Dave Richard]

All in the same range. So then, so then. So we're up to Montgomery.

[Adam Azer]

Yeah. Yeah. What the host just said.

[Heath Cummings]

We have talked about everyone before David Montgomery. Okay, so the only guys we've talked about after David Montgomery are rookies.

[Dave Richard]

Okay, fair enough. So how many. So would you take David Montgomery? All right, better question. How many rookies are you taking over David Montgomery?

[Adam Azer]

One. Ashton Genti in full ppr.

[Dave Richard]

You're not taking Hampton over Montgomery. Yeah, full ppr.

[Heath Cummings]

Only Henderson for me. But Hampton's not my second rookie running back in full pbr.

[Dave Richard]

Who is?

[Heath Cummings]

Henderson.

[Dave Richard]

Oh, okay. I'm sorry. Yeah, that makes sense. So you're taking Genti and Henderson over Montgomery Heath.

[Heath Cummings]

Correct.

[Dave Richard]

Montgomery again. Two years in a row. He's been such a great value. A great value. He was the number 11 running back per game in his first 14 games. And he did catch the ball. He had 36 catches in 14 games. That's not nothing. So. All right, he just. No respect for him in. In ADP. Where's he going? He's going in round six. Okay, so then what about. What about your boy, DeAndre Swift? Let's. Let's talk about him. I was prepared for this. I did a lot of DeAndre Swift research. This is where he's finished per game in full PPR in five seasons. DeAndre Swift, RB17 per game, 10 per game, 17 per game, 24 and 24 in half PPR is only two standout years then the last, the last three years and half PPR. Swift's been 23, 24 and 24 per game. Basically the same in non PPR has actually never finished higher than 20th per game in non PPR. So what do you think? You think he's gonna be around RB24 this year?

[Heath Cummings]

I. I think this guy and Dave, I think has made the point that Swift could be the guy who's being drafted to too high because of projected volume. It seems though that everyone's already drafted Swift too high too many times to do that. So like he's currently being drafted in the middle of round six or often in round seven or later in our mocks. And I don't think the narrative that Ben Johnson hates DeAndre Swift holds any water at all anymore.

[Adam Azer]

Agree.

[Heath Cummings]

Partially because of the way Johnson's talked, partially because of the way the Bears have behaved this entire off season. They have had all kinds of opportunities to add all kinds of running backs and they just passed and passed and passed. So I, and I, I project DeAndre Swift as RB17. I think he absolutely in Ben Johnson's offense has top 12 upside. And the risk, other than him getting hurt and missing a lot of games, the risk in my opinion is that, oh no, he finishes at RB24 again, which is better than his ADP. I think he's one of the few running backs available who has top 12 upside and a floor that is higher than his ADP.

[Adam Azer]

The last time he was top 12 was 2021 Adam per game.

[Dave Richard]

Yes. And that was when he had 62 catches in 13 games.

[Heath Cummings]

And was that with Ben Johnson?

[Adam Azer]

No, Ben Johnson was 2022, I believe.

[Heath Cummings]

Okay. Jonathan was there. He just wasn't in charge of the offense.

[Adam Azer]

Correct. And when. So you're right, Heath, like all off season long, the Bears could have signed any free agent running back. They could have drafted anyone except Genti. They would have had to trade up to get Genti on their team. And I think they would have taken Genti if he had fallen to them in the draft. Just didn't happen that way and I thought there would. I still feel like there's another shoe to drop here when it comes to the Bears running game, but it hasn't happened yet. That's facts. And DeAndre Swift looks like he's in position to be the lead guy in an offense with an improved offensive line, an improved scheme. And I thought about this, Heath, we've seen this before. We saw it two years ago when DeAndre Swift went to Philadelphia. He was the lead running back there. He averaged 12.5 PPR points per game half the year. He was awesome. He started the year great. 15 PPR points per game. Just an absolute stud. And then the second half of the season, be it because of injuries, didn't work as much. He didn't even average 10 PPR points per game in the second half of the year. I, I just, I don't want to spend a lot of draft capital on DeAndre Swift, even though I know that as of now he's the, the main running back in Chicago's offense.

[Dave Richard]

What does that mean though? A lot of draft capital?

[Heath Cummings]

You don't have to.

[Adam Azer]

Well, what's the ADP is what. Round six?

[Dave Richard]

Yes. Late rounds around too soon for me.

[Adam Azer]

I don't. I, I think I can find other running backs. I would rather take a chance on a lot of these other rookies. I'll take the, the hope over. I'll take the.

[Heath Cummings]

Don't go chasing waterfalls, Dave. Stick to the, stick to the RB2s you're used to.

[Adam Azer]

Yeah, but in round six, if I'm drafting a guy with the expectation of 12 and a half PPR points per game, I'm, I'm probably not drafting at that position. I will probably look for a wide receiver that's got a chance to do better than that. I will probably take a quarterback that's got 22 fantasy point per game upside over a running back like Swift. I, I need to see a path where he can get back to that 15 point per game range. Heath, you might see that path. But there's in Philadelphia, 12 and a half points per game. He was great for half the year. He sucked for half the year. Last year in Chicago, he was lead running back in Chicago, 12 1/2 PPR points per game.

[Heath Cummings]

I think that the, the thing that you would say if you're wanting to talk about Swift, especially in PPR's upside, is the fact that that year in Philadelphia you're talking about was his lowest catch total of his career. And the reason's quite obvious. He played with Jalen Hurts.

[Dave Richard]

They basically had the same, same catch total in Chicago though. He played one extra game and he had three more catches. So 39, 39 catches targets per game last year. Yeah. So. So can he be a top 12?

[Heath Cummings]

What has been Johnson's offense generally been for running back targets?

[Dave Richard]

Yeah. Quite good.

[Adam Azer]

Been good.

[Heath Cummings]

Right. It's been good for everyone, including Swift. Two years in a row or one year if we don't count the other year. Ben Johnson was there at swing.

[Dave Richard]

Yeah. Yep. 2022 with Ben Johnson he had 48 catches in 14 games. That's terrific. But even if he had 42 catches in 17 games, he still could, could be a top 15 12ish running back because it happens all the time. But he's got to score more touchdowns. He has career high is eight rushing touchdowns. That was as a rookie. He's one of the worst short yardage running backs in the NFL. His third, his third and one and fourth and one conversion rate since he came into the NFL is, is among the lowest of all running backs. So yeah, so there's that, there's that.

[Heath Cummings]

That'S if he's going to be a top 12 running back. But we've seen four years in a row now. It's 5, 5, 5, 6 in terms of the rushing touchdowns and he still finishes higher than he's being drafted.

[Adam Azer]

Here's the takeaway that I want to give on that 2023 the line. He was the lead running back for the Lions. Ben Johnson was the oc. That was a good offense. It was a great offensive line. That was the year Jamal Williams scored like 17 touchdowns. Yeah, I, I, let's keep the name Roshan Johnson in mind everybody.

[Heath Cummings]

Yeah, for sure.

[Adam Azer]

Great sleeper dart throw in like the round 10 range. I got a feeling that if Chicago's not adding any other running backs, they've got a guy ready to take that Jamal Williams role and it's not going to be DeAndre Swift. We know what, what we, we just got done talking about the Swift is not a short yardage guy.

[Dave Richard]

Yeah. And last thing on Swift, he's top 24 every year per game in his career. Five straight years. That is with four of the first five years leaving one game super early with an injury and having terrible stats because of it. So it's even better than, well, you know you have to do that to every, for every running back. I know that. But he has been victimized a little bit by leaving games early with injuries. Okay.

[Heath Cummings]

And, and it's worth saying that like of those finishes that we gave from Swift, the year that Jamal Williams scored 17 touchdowns, DeAndre Swift was RB16 per.

[Dave Richard]

Game in full PPR right half PPR. I think it was 23rd.

[Heath Cummings]

Both are better than where he's.

[Dave Richard]

You talk about Jamal Williams scoring 17, it's not that different than Jalen Hurts scoring 15 in 2023. DeAndre Swift had the six six carries that ended at the one yard line that year, all of them followed by Jalen Hurts touchdowns in 2023. All right, we should take a break, but let's, let's get Tony Pollard and Isaiah Pacheco in this discussion as well. How do they compare with DeAndre Swift and David Montgomery? And we'll be right back on fft.

[Adam Azer]

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[Heath Cummings]

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[Dave Richard]

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[Adam Azer]

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[Dave Richard]

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[Adam Azer]

Priceline.

[Heath Cummings]

Are you still quoting 30 year old movies? Have you said cool beans in the past 90 days?

[Dave Richard]

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[Heath Cummings]

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[Dave Richard]

Learn more at discover.com credit card based on the February 2024 Nielsen report. A quick recap exercise here for those of us who maybe lost power and missed a big chunk of the show. You just tell me I'm going to give you the player and the round and you give me a yes or a no. Are you comfortable taking this guy in this round in a 12 team PPR league? Omarion Hampton. Four or five turn.

[Adam Azer]

I'm good with that. Really good.

[Heath Cummings]

I don't really want to.

[Dave Richard]

Ken Walker. Around five.

[Adam Azer]

Really good with that.

[Heath Cummings]

Love it.

[Dave Richard]

Chuba Hubbard. Round five.

[Adam Azer]

Yes.

[Heath Cummings]

Love it.

[Dave Richard]

Joe Mixon and Alvin Camara. Round five.

[Adam Azer]

Camaro. More so, but yes.

[Heath Cummings]

Love mixing there. Camara is fine.

[Dave Richard]

Round six. R.J. harvey.

[Adam Azer]

Too rich.

[Heath Cummings]

No, that. That's where I have them.

[Dave Richard]

James Connor.

[Adam Azer]

Love it.

[Heath Cummings]

That's where I have him.

[Dave Richard]

Travion Henderson, PPR.

[Adam Azer]

That's fine.

[Dave Richard]

DeAndre Swift.

[Heath Cummings]

Love it.

[Adam Azer]

I'd rather. I'm gonna let Heath draft him in round six.

[Dave Richard]

David Montgomery.

[Adam Azer]

Good, appropriate.

[Dave Richard]

Round seven. Caleb Johnson and Quinshawn Judkins.

[Adam Azer]

Fine with it.

[Heath Cummings]

Like Judkins fine with Johnson.

[Dave Richard]

Okay, then let's get to these three guys. Tony Pollard, Isaiah Pacheco. And Aaron Jones. They're going in round seven. Veteran running backs going right after two rookies. Caleb Johnson and Quinte, John Judkins, Tony Pollard, Isaiah Pacheco and Aaron Jones. How do you rank them, Dave?

[Adam Azer]

I've got Pacheco ahead of Pollard. I've got Jones ahead of both those guys. I don't know how much I love that. These are all running backs that I'm looking at round six plus prefer to get in round seven.

[Heath Cummings]

I like Pollard in round six. I, I could deal with Jones in round six. And I'm gonna let Dave draft Isaiah Pacheco.

[Dave Richard]

And these guys are all going around seven by the way, according to early adp.

[Adam Azer]

Right. So good values for all three.

[Heath Cummings]

Yeah. I've got Pacheco in round eight.

[Dave Richard]

Pacheco is my favorite. He's my fave. He's. He's probably my favorite sleeper right now. I'll call him a sleeper. And it's not a super late round pick but I think people were sleeping on him. It just obviously one, we're going to have to watch the health reports and.

[Heath Cummings]

All that but there's, there's, there's, there's probably two really key things to watch and I don't know how much of an indication we get in training camp, but is Isaiah Pacheco back to what he was?

[Adam Azer]

Exactly.

[Heath Cummings]

And then the second one is, is this a workhorse Andy Reid running back role, which we've seen many times throughout Andy Reid's career and has worked out great for fantasy. Or is this a big mess where Rashard Smith matters on passing downs and Kareem Hunt is handling carries inside the five. And I think that the inside the five might be a bigger concern than the passing downs.

[Dave Richard]

100 agree. Yeah.

[Heath Cummings]

Just because Hunt's pretty good at getting you two yards if you need two yards. And Pacheco's had struggles getting that role throughout most of his career.

[Dave Richard]

Yeah, I mean the passing downs thing, you're going to be running backs in this range that are coming off the field either on passing downs or for Tony Pollard. He's going to come off the field on some running downs. So we're not looking at workhorses necessarily here. But Pacheco, just remember where we were at this time last year. Talk about him as a somewhere between mid round two and mid round three. And the only thing that changed, he was off to the start that we wanted. Right. The role looked great. The only thing that changed was the injury. He came back and he was absolutely horrible. So if I think if he's healthy, he's by far the best running back in this backfield and ready for a big bounce back season.

[Adam Azer]

But I feel like he's got to earn that again.

[Dave Richard]

Sure. But in round eight, you know, or round seven. Pardon me, I'm willing to take that risk.

[Heath Cummings]

The only thing I would say is like we in terms of by far the best running back in this range.

[Dave Richard]

No, on the team. On the team.

[Heath Cummings]

On the team, sure.

[Dave Richard]

Yeah.

[Heath Cummings]

But like I just have a lot of reasons to doubt like we are Talking about a 26 year old former 7th round pick who's never had a thousand yard rushing season or scored more than seven rushing touchdowns or had 300 receiving yards in a year. He had a stretch between the end of year two and the beginning of year three where you could Azer stat together a 17 game season that looks like. Oh yeah, like but it.

[Dave Richard]

He was the. He was RB14 per game in 2023.

[Adam Azer]

Yep.

[Dave Richard]

That's all. That's all I have to say. He missed three games but he was on pace for 1135 yards, 53 catches plus 11 total touchdowns, nine rushing. That was his pace. So yeah, he's had trouble staying healthy. There are certainly risks with Pacheco but again he was RB14 per game in 2023. He had an injury riddled horrible season in 2024. I'm just hoping for the bounce back there. It's really that simple. I don't even think we have to get that right. It's that simple. So how about we talk about Aaron Jones and Tony Pollard here because I think they're more complex, especially Tony Pollard with the presence of Tajie Spears who did eat into a big chunk of Tony Pollard's role when they were both healthy and you got Brian Callahan and maybe the offensive coordinator. Remember some talking. Two people talking about how they want to get multiple running backs involved. So yeah. What do you guys think about Pollard here? Dave, good pick in round seven.

[Adam Azer]

I think it's fine. I'd rather Aaron Jones actually I have Jones ahead of both Pollard and Pacheco. It's mostly because of track record and the offense that he's in. I'm not ready to believe that he's going to lose a lot of work to Jordan Mason. It could be a split. He shared carries last year too. Still averaged over 14 PPR points per game. And he's always been the type of running back. This is Aaron Jones. When he's had decent volume he's come through for fantasy managers. I think Pollard needs to have that volume in order to come through on the same level, around 14 PPR points per game. And I bet there's going to be some games this year where Pollard doesn't get that workload. I think we're going to see more of Tajie Spears working closer to a 50, 50 split. And I think we'll see a lot of games where the Titans have more confidence in their passing game. I think there were games last year where. Where Brian Callahan did not want to call a ton of passing plays because of what they had at quarterback. I think that's going to flip this year because Cam Ward seems like he's. He's already ascending to being a capable starter who won't throw the ball five yards over somebody's head or make bonehead decisions, won't fumble the ball when he's getting sacked, won't do dumb stuff. And. And it just. It makes me wonder, okay, does that mean the Titans score more? And if they do score more, that would theoretically help Pollard, but I don't know if that's going to end up being the case. So I. I'm going to take Jones, who's done it before, has the longer track record. I know he's older. That part sucks. But it's the Minnesota offense, and I think they're gonna have to run just a little bit more in Minnesota anyway because J.J. mcCarthy's the quarterback there, so. Close call. Great value for all three. But give me Jones first.

[Heath Cummings]

My real hesitance with Jones is partially the age and partially a concern that Jordan Mason is the guy inside the red zone, and Jordan Mason proves to be a better rusher this year.

[Dave Richard]

So, yeah. Do we feel like we really have seen enough of Jordan Mason to.

[Adam Azer]

Right. I. I think.

[Heath Cummings]

I didn't say I predict. I'm not predicting that. I'm not projecting that. But that's one. That's one of my concerns with. Like, Jones is going to be 31. He turns 31 in December, so 30, but still, it gets risky. And he's kind of like Swift. I mean, in terms of touchdowns lately. He has 13 rushing touchdowns in his last four seasons combined.

[Dave Richard]

Yeah. Jones had 255 carries in 17 games. He did leave one game early with an injury, but they've talked about wanting to reduce that workload. Right. And 51 catches is really good for him as well. These two guys, Pollard and Jones and DeAndre Swift, they have a lot in common. These are three guys who had 250 or more carries and five or six rushing touchdowns. The Other one who had that was Najee Harris. But you could say Pollard, Jones and Swift. I don't know if you want to call it luck, but touchdown rate, sure. They were at the very bottom of touchdown rate.

[Heath Cummings]

I don't think they are three of the best short yardage running backs in the NFL by any stretch of the imagination. I think the question also when you're looking, if you want to put those three instead of Pacheco, because it's kind of a different argument. Which of those offenses are we all expecting to be a lot better than they were last year?

[Dave Richard]

No, it's certainly Tennessee.

[Adam Azer]

Tennessee should be better.

[Heath Cummings]

Chicago.

[Dave Richard]

Oh, I'm sorry.

[Heath Cummings]

Chicago is the one that everyone is just expecting to be a lot.

[Dave Richard]

I didn't. I wasn't concluding Swift there. My bad.

[Heath Cummings]

Yeah, yeah, so. And I think Pollard's going to have Tai J. Spears hopefully for more of the year than he did last year. Hopefully for Ty J. Spears staying healthy and Jordan Mason's probably a bigger risk to Jones than the guys they had they were splitting work with with Jones last year.

[Adam Azer]

Agreed. And they had a lot of different.

[Heath Cummings]

Whereas Swift's added no running back competition. Unless you want to count Kyle Manangai.

[Dave Richard]

You know what I find amazing about Swift? This is. I love this about him. He is such a home run hitter. But for a guy, he had three rushing touchdowns of 35 or more yards last year. Only Saquon Barkley and James Cook had more three long rushing touchdowns and somehow he only had six rushing touchdowns for the year and averaged 3.8 yards per carry since entering the league five years ago. He's 16th in carries among running backs, but he has the fourth most carries of 35 or more yards. This is DeAndre Swift.

[Heath Cummings]

Sorry, he was Ken Wal Walker before Ken Walker was Ken Walker.

[Dave Richard]

Yeah, a little bit. Yeah. With more pass catching chops. So there's that exciting profile of the Andre Swift. He can still hit the home run. Yeah, Pollard. Pollard can too. Pollard. You know, Jamie's brought this up about Pollard. He had the one year where his advanced metrics terms of like after contact weren't good and it was the year where he's coming off the broken ankle. Other than that, he's one of the true elites in after, you know, yards, after contact. So he can make big plays. You want these guys. Are you okay with maybe waiting and waiting on running back going hero RB and taking around 6 and round 7 running back? I'm sorry if you already said that earlier.

[Adam Azer]

We didn't talk about this and we absolutely should everybody should rewind to the beginning of our running back discussion. You listed a lot of names, Adam. It's up to you. If you want to list those names again. You should do account in your head how many of those names you'd be comfortable starting on your fantasy team team. And the bigger the number you come up with, the more excited you should be about hero or zero rb. Especially considering what we've talked about with wide receivers this off season, how it's so top heavy and once you get to like the middle of the wide receiver 2 range, they all kind of look the same as you go down into the wide receiver three range. This, this depth at running back excites me.

[Dave Richard]

Yeah.

[Adam Azer]

And it's, it's the fact that we're able to get some veteran running backs at a good price. We just got done talking about three other veteran running backs that you're getting at a great price. They've got upside to be awesome. I, I, I think the draft really helped us restock the running back position in fantasy for a good while. But this year, especially with so many veteran running backs that we can look at and still say, okay, these guys can help us. They might be 29, 30 or 31 years old, but they can still help us in fantasy. There's real depth here that I think we should use as part of our strategy when we're talking about half and full PPR leagues.

[Dave Richard]

Head explosion emoji. John who Smith to the Steelers.

[Adam Azer]

Wow. Two big trades for the Steelers.

[Dave Richard]

Yeah. Jalen Ramsey and John who Smith to the Steelers.

[Adam Azer]

Today we kind of knew the John.

[Heath Cummings]

Who one was coming in separate trades.

[Adam Azer]

Separate? Were they separate?

[Dave Richard]

I mean, it looks like it. From what? The way I'm interpreting the tweet.

[Heath Cummings]

Well, that really stinks for the tight end position.

[Dave Richard]

Oh, you know, you know, like, are you guys ready to start taking Tyreek Hill earlier now? Because I knew, I knew eventually you'd catch up to me.

[Heath Cummings]

We're gonna have to. I'll probably make a bigger boost to Waddle than to Hill, but they will both move up in the rankings. And hn, Holy cow. Are you guys ready to join me with HN as RB2?

[Dave Richard]

RB2?

[Heath Cummings]

I think I've got him at RB3. I've got him. I've got a Bijon Barkley. Hm. But I may put HN ahead of Barkley now.

[Dave Richard]

You're forgetting McCaffrey, Heath.

[Heath Cummings]

What?

[Dave Richard]

You're forgetting McCaffrey.

[Heath Cummings]

I know.

[Dave Richard]

I guess we have to finish this discussion of mid round running backs. Maybe we'll do a bonus podcast later on this Johnny trade. But yeah, this is, this is a big deal. Johnny was a. A target hog down the stretch last year. Okay. He's a big loser, right?

[Heath Cummings]

Huge.

[Adam Azer]

Oh, yeah, yeah.

[Dave Richard]

That sucks. Okay, so then we have these last three guys in round eight. Brian Robinson Jr. Jordan Mason and Jalen Warren. And as much as I want to be like I don't really believe in Brian Robinson Jr. He kind of feels like one of some of those other guys that were busts on this range. He's basically the last starting running back available. Maybe Javante Williams. Maybe I'm missing someone, but you're. This is, I think round eight for Brian Robinson Jr. Feels like pretty good value even in PPR. I know he's not going to catch passes. Yes, he needs to score, but he probably will. You guys kind of feel along the same lines.

[Adam Azer]

You're right. I. You use that dorky muppet voice.

[Dave Richard]

Yeah.

[Adam Azer]

This one for Brian Robinson because listen, I. I'm more excited about him in non PPR because I think he can get you 10 non PPR points per game. Problem is, I think he can get you 10 PPR points per game too. He just doesn't catch the ball enough. He's touchdown dependent. Don't ever see him being a. A huge breakout guy on a team that splits running back workload and has a great rushing quarterback.

[Heath Cummings]

Yeah, I think round eight is exactly where Brian Robinson Jr. Belongs to.

[Dave Richard]

But earlier. And would you go earlier in half or non?

[Heath Cummings]

I mean, non for sure. Because all the running backs.

[Dave Richard]

Earlier. Right. Half. Not really. Right. I mean, he's still a liability. Touchdown dependent. Okay, so he did leave two games early. They were both against Dallas. I believe one of them was an injury. One was week 18 where he left the Washington pull their starters and he would have averaged more than a full point per game more in PPR. If you remove weeks 12 and 18, Brian Robinson, and that would have put him in the top 24 per game. So I think it's pretty clear he doesn't have huge upside in any format where catches count. But he's a solid pick here. And Jordan Mason, I don't know that I want like round eight for a handcuff. I don't know. Or I. I understand he's gonna have a role, but. But I don't know. Mason and Jalen Warren in round eight, I don't think I'd make those picks. Would you?

[Heath Cummings]

Warren in full ppr, I'm fine with there. I like him more than I like Robinson in Full ppr. Oh, I thought I really liked Jordan Mason, but no, not that round nine.

[Adam Azer]

For Mason is okay.

[Dave Richard]

Does this Johnny. I'm sorry, Dave. Does this Johnny Smith trade change how you feel about Jalen Warren?

[Adam Azer]

I gotta think about that a little bit more. I gotta go back and look at how he was used with Arthur Smith before because he's not going to be used the same way that he was in Miami. That that Steelers offense isn't going to try and get the ball out of Aaron Rodgers hands as fast as possible. They're going to want Rogers to make reads and then deliver. And he's got good accuracy. So good accuracy, Dave. I imagine that John Smith will still be used in short area passing, just not to the same volume. I don't know if that really impacts Warren greatly. I. But I do need to double check.

[Heath Cummings]

That Dave has made the good point that a long time ago and I. I just took it over that that running back targets and tight end targets are generally negatively correlated. That if you're going to throw to your tight ends more, you're going to throw your running backs less and vice versa. That they're what proves rules. Adam. Exceptions prove rules.

[Dave Richard]

Okay?

[Heath Cummings]

And Arthur Smith is the exception to that rule. Over the last three years, just 44 of his team's targets have gone to wide receivers. They throw a ton to both their tight ends and their running backs. And I think that was always the plan. They had 230 targets last year, which doesn't sound like a lot that went to those two positions, which is one more than they threw to their wide receivers.

[Dave Richard]

Yeah.

[Heath Cummings]

So I don't know that it necessarily. I think it. I mean it. It really nukes Pat Friarmuth and I don't think it has a big impact on Warren.

[Dave Richard]

All right. By the way, Miami was also an exception to that rule. They threw to A Chan and John who Smith all the time with tua. But here's my point about Mason and Warren last. Last time point here. The next two running backs off the board as we get into round nine are Travis ETN and Tyrone Tracy. Oh, and Naji Harris as well. ETN Harris and Tracy. Are you taking ETN Harris or. And. Or Tracy ahead of Jordan Mason and Jalen Warren?

[Adam Azer]

Yep.

[Heath Cummings]

In full ppr, I'm taking ETN ahead of amongst guys we've talked about Warren, Caleb Johnson, Isaiah Pacheco and Brian Robinson.

[Adam Azer]

Check that I've got warrants out of etn.

[Dave Richard]

You do?

[Adam Azer]

As of now, I gotta factor in the John New trade before I stick with that. But, yeah, Jordan Mason is behind all those guys.

[Dave Richard]

All right, that's going to do it for our show today. We will talk to you tomorrow, maybe later today with a John who Smith breakdown. I think we can probably cover that on tomorrow's show. Have a good one, everybody. Talk to you soon. On fantasy football today, Paramount podcasts.

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