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Adam
You all know I've been running an Airbnb for a while now, and it's been a great way to make use of my extra space, especially when I'm traveling. And I've got some great trips coming up. First, I'm heading to Pinehurst, North Carolina, for an annual golf trip with the crew. Always a blast. Then I'm swinging down to my old stomping grounds in Gainesville, Florida, to catch a Gators game and slide into my favorite Mexican spot, La Tienda, for some steak tacos. What I love is that with the Airbnb co host network, I don't have to think twice about what's happening back home. I found a local pro who handles everything. Creating the listing, managing bookings, messaging guests, even being there in person if anything comes up. I get to enjoy the trip, be in the moment, and know everything's running smoothly. So whether you already host like I do or you've got a space just sitting empty while you're away, this is a total game changer. Find a co host@airbnb.com host.
Dave
Buying a car in Carvana was so easy, I was able to finance it through them. I just.
Jamie
Whoa, wait.
Dave
You mean finance? Yeah, finance. Got pre qualified for a Carvana auto loan, entered my terms and shot from.
Jamie
Thousands of great car options, all within my budget.
Dave
That's cool. But financing through Carvana was so easy. Financed, done. And I get to pick up my.
Jamie
Car from their Carvana vending machine tomorrow.
Heath
Financed, right?
Dave
That's what they said. You can spend time trying to pronounce financing, or you can actually finance and buy your car today. Aww. Carvana financing, subject to credit approval. Additional terms and conditions may apply.
Dan
This is Fantasy Football Today from CBS Sports. What a play. Can you believe this? No, I can't.
Jamie
It's time to dominate your fantasy league.
Dave
Off to the races and he stays at his feet.
Dan
This is gonna go the distance.
Dave
Now here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie, and Heath. Let's go, everyone. It's mailbag time. And it feels like Friday. I woke up. I thought it was today. So happy Friday, everybody, on this Thursday, July 3rd. Dan Schneier's here. What are your Fourth of July plans, Dan?
Dan
Fourth of July plans start with a round of golf in the morning. Can't wait for that. And then a barbecue in the afternoon. So I'm very excited about that.
Dave
And Dave, hi. What are your Fourth of July plans?
Dan
I don't know.
Dave
Oh, come on.
Dan
Go figure them out. I don't know.
Jamie
I'm Going to be nice and neat and organized like, Dan, I got a wife, I got kids, I got a dog.
Dave
Okay, fill in the blank. If there's one thing I need in my life on fourth of July, it is blank.
Jamie
Liam Cohen, cut ups on play action passes.
Dave
You're so. You know, you. You don't. You better not work a single second tomorrow, Dave. Just enjoy the day.
Jamie
I will be right here. If anybody needs me, give me a call. You're gonna be in the only one on a show.
Dan
Oh, give me a break.
Dave
All right, Dan, how about you fill in the blank? Have fun.
Dan
That's good. I think she's a cheeseburger. I think a good cheeseburger with nothing on. Pickles, ketchup, cheese. That's it.
Dave
Pickles.
Jamie
That's like a regular Wednesday for me.
Dan
Well, I also eat a hot dog, and I rarely eat hot dogs. I eat dogs about like. Well, my dog intake has actually gone up by like 6, 6 to 10 per year. Unfortunately, it was at like 1 on 4th of July only. And now it's a good. It's a good. When you make the turn in golf from going from ninth hole to the 10th hole, it's good to get a dog on a golf course. It really is. So my dog cake has definitely gone up, sadly. But dog for dogs, I have strict rules. Mustard's good. Kraut is good. I like mustard, red onions, and relish. But anyone who puts ketchup on a dog is just. What are they doing? What are they doing?
Dave
Actually, I don't put anything. I don't put anything. I just eat them. I just eat a hot dog.
Jamie
No, you, Adam, you are exactly the person that puts ketchup on a hot dog.
Dave
I used to, but no, I don't anymore. I just have the hot dog. And that is the one thing that need on fourth of July. It is hot dog day.
Dan
Dog. Yeah. And by the way, I can't believe you didn't make any comment about my US Open 2023. As you know, Prop Joe once said to Avon Barksdale on the mean streets of Baltimore, you got to look the part, be the part, mother something. And I won't fill in that blank, but some can figure that out. And it's okay. It's a family show, but it didn't say anything. And it's kind of just. If you get it, you get if you know, you know, if you've seen the show. Adam has never seen the Wire, sadly, so he wouldn't even understand that quote or who Prop Joe is of Course.
Dave
That what you just said is not true. I have seen the Wire. I watched five episodes. It was extremely boring and then I stopped watching it. Okay, so just real quick before we get into our emails, today's a mailbag show. Fantasy Football@cbsi.com that is the letter I Fantasy Football@cbsi.com we're also reading your Apple podcast questions and I'll tell you about the mailbag we're doing next week where you can pay $50, donate it to St. Jude to to have your question read on the air. We'll talk a little bit more about draft a thon in about 10 minutes or so. Important correction from yesterday's show. Ooh boy. Embarrassing. And nobody called me out on it. I said that Darren Waller didn't have a lot of tread on his tires. And what I meant by that was he didn't have a lot of usage basically for a 32 year old. But I was corrected by a very much smarter than me listener who said when you don't have a lot of tread on the tires, it actually means you're completely worn down and you need new tires. So I.
Dan
Wait a second. I've been using that for my whole life to describe football players. That's just been wrong the entire time.
Dave
I think so. I think we've been wrong.
Dan
A lot of people get this wrong.
Jamie
Then no, if you don't have tread, that means the tire is bald.
Dave
Right? It means you've been, you're over worn, you've worn down.
Jamie
You know, it's. You have tread on the tire, plenty of tread left on the tire.
Dan
That tread is a good thing.
Dave
Tread is a good thing.
Dan
Yeah. We've been using that wrong the entire time.
Jamie
Yeah, you guys have.
Dan
I think not just we like the entire community use that wrong.
Dave
I think so. I think a lot of people are wrong on that. So there now there you go. Talk about it at the water cooler. All right. Our first email comes from Pete from Seattle and he has a subject player comps. I couldn't help but think of these two comps. Not saying they are literally going to be these players, but the Scenarios are similar. JJ McCarthy to Patrick Mahomes. Both guys sat year one behind very competent quarterbacks. Both have elite offensive weapons and a coach. And an elite coach, both NFL draft pick number 10. So that's his one comp. And actually Mahomes in college in his last year, this is from me, he threw for 5,052 yards and 41 touchdowns. McCarthy threw for 2009, 91 and 22 touchdowns, but actually averaged significantly more yards per attempt than Mahomes. He just didn't throw that much. He averaged nine yards per attempt.
Dan
Throw a lot.
Dave
Mahomes 8.5 yards per 10. So that is comp number one, McCarthy to Mahomes. The second one is cup to Larry Fitzgerald. This is a great one. Both had fall offs at age 31, leading people to believe that age has got to them. And then Larry Fitzgerald went on to have three more thousand yard seasons at ages 32, 33 and 34. And in those seasons, I'll tell you, he finished as he was much better in PPR than non PPR. But let's just give, I'll give you half PPR. Larry Fitzgerald at ages 32 through 34, wide receiver, 13 per game, 12 per game and nine per game in half PPR. So Dave, which comp do you like better, Mahomes to McCarthy or cup to Fitzgerald?
Jamie
I don't like either one of them. In the case of cup to Fitzgerald. I, I don't remember Larry Fitzgerald having a series of injuries that robbed him of his athleticism and ultimately got him cut from one team and signed to another where he'll play theoretically a lesser role. So the, the fall off for Cup I think has more to do with the injuries he had rather than getting old. Now you might say, well, when you get older you're more susceptible to injuries. You don't, you, you have lost a lot of tread on your tire in that case. Might be right. But I, I, I, I don't see Cooper cup having the type of rebound to his career that Larry Fitzgerald had. I'm not even sure Cooper cup will be playing football next year. So this, this is one that I just don't get behind. Could JJ McCarthy be the next Patrick Mahomes? No, listen, he's right about some of the things, you know, the elite offensive weapons. Are we really ready to say that Kevin o' Connell is an elite coach? Maybe not, but we have seen KOC do a good job with Kirk Cousins, with Sam Darnold. Really took both of their games to the next level. Could easily do that with J.J. mcCarthy. I pushed back on J.J. mcCarthy sitting for a year. He had to sit for a year. He had an injury that he had to come back from. I would imagine that if Sam Darnold got off to a slower starter, a sluggish start, we would have seen J.J. mcCarthy as a rookie play and maybe even play very well for, for the Minnesota Vikings. Ultimately, I think McCarthy could potentially be a top 12 quarterback. But to go and be like the number one QB like Mahomes was once upon a time. No, I don't think that's happening.
Dave
I actually really like the Cup Fitzgerald comparison because FITZGERALD at age 31, he had a bad year. He had 103 targets and turned that into 784 yards. It's horrible. But he had bad quarterback play. Carson Palmer got hurt. So it was Carson Palmer, but it was also mostly Drew Stanton and also a little bit of Ryan Lindley 2015. He's 32 years old and like I said, he's 13th per game in full PPR. He actually had a very good year, his 13th in yards per out run that year, 1215 yards on 109 targets. But 2016 and 17, he basically just PPR'd his way to success. Kind of like Jalen Waddle's rookie year.
Dan
But just remember that year where he just PPR'd his way.
Dave
Yeah, he earned a lot of targets. He earned 146 or more targets in all three of those seasons. But I think the point I'd like to make, and I've made this before with Larry Fitzgerald and with Julian Edelman, primarily slot guys like Fitzgerald. At that point in his career, Fitzgerald had been a heavy slot guy. He was no longer this dynamic playmaker on the outside or. Or even on the inside. They still earned a lot of targets and they still put up really big numbers. And it made me think that guys like that who just win in the slot maybe age better than explosive outside receivers. And that's what cup has become, is this slot guy.
Dan
I think a big factor in Cup's significance in fantasy football has been a combination of one, being in Sean McVeigh system and how he utilizes him, and two, having the rapport with Matthew Stafford that he had. He loses both of those things. Maybe the Clint Kubiak system can PPR his way to relevance. I think it's possible to the only scenario I see happening. But I think when I watch that Kubect system with New Orleans, I think JSN has a much better shot of being the guy there that the offense funnels through, just given what I saw last year and throughout his coaching career. So I don't get on board with that. The other one I find ludicrous to compare JJ McCarthy and Patrick Mahomes. I do. I watched a lot of tape of both of those guys at college. They are nothing alike from an arm talent standpoint. They're nothing alike from really any standpoint as players. So the situations are Correct. And one of the things that the listener used to tied them together was that they were both drafted 10th overall. Wasn't Christian Ponder drafted like 10th overall? I mean, we can't really credit anything when it comes to that. Now. I'm not trying to dismantle it. He's having fun. He's trying to find some stuff. And listen, you're so rude. If JJ McCarthy becomes the next Patrick Mahomes, then yes, you can come back, find me and obliterate me anywhere you'd like on social media, whatever you'd like to do. But I will take a hard stand, hard line the sand there.
Dave
Well, listen, you can do all those things even if J.J. mcCarthy doesn't become Mahomes. Last thing about the Fitzgerald cup thing, you're right about the JSN factor. The best wide receiver on those teams was John Brown. So Fitzgerald really was the number one guy. In fact, one year, David Johnson was second in receiving at over 800 receiving yards. Next. Next, emails from FUD. Where's FUD from, Dave?
Jamie
FUD is from Eugene, Oregon.
Dave
He says, hey, Adam, Dave, Jamie and Heath. Ouch.
Dan
Yeah, I saw that on the rundown too. It's okay.
Dave
One day he says, which metric is more important in terms of predicting fantasy success for wide receivers? Yards per out run or target share? Now, I changed this question to target per route run rate because target share, you have to stay healthy. So I looked at the last three years of the leaders in target per route run rate and yards per out run rate. They're both pretty good in terms of predicting who's going to be good. But yards per route run rate is better. You know, I'd have to say. But this is really a question about advanced metrics, any metrics really that you use to evaluate wide receivers. And Dave, where do you stand on that? Which, what do you like?
Jamie
I think as long as you use them in context, then you'll be okay. Yards per hour runs important as long as you know how many routes a certain player is running and using that as information to try and see using that information along with a dot and target per route run and all that stuff. I mean, usually those things all kind of jive together to paint the picture that a player is, is doing well and that you can count on that guy to be helpful for fantasy. I, I like what you did. Changing target share to target per route run. With target per route run, you're kind of creating a stat that doesn't. It's not impacted by how many snaps a guy plays. It's literally how often this guy is getting a target based on however many routes he runs. And of course you're going to still need context for that stat. But I like that one personally myself better than yards per route run. But both are good.
Dan
I think they're different metrics. Targets per route run I think does a great job of determining, determining how the individual player is behind. You know, if we're looking under while targets, that's kind of how he's performing and that can change based on the system, based on the quarterback and the rapport and all of those factors that go around. But ultimately if you're looking for who is succeeding right now and who's playing the best role on your fantasy team right now, I think it is actually targets per out run because in the end I strongly believe that doesn't mean, I think that means who's the better player long term and who you can predict year over year. Because I know yards for outrun is the way more telling as far as like if you look at the advanced metrics for people who break the stuff down, that one is more telling year over year. But I think ultimately this game is a volume game. I've said it before, I'll say it a lot. It's a, it's a game of finding players who are on the scoring teams, in my opinion, the high scoring teams that are getting volume, especially as we move more toward most people playing in either half or full PPR leagues.
Dave
Yeah, there's a, there's a look. The lists are going to be pretty similar. Okay. It's hard to be a standout in yards per out run if you're not a standout in targets per out run.
Jamie
So.
Dave
Right. Like you're, you need to get targeted.
Dan
Well, there it is. Wanda Robinson.
Dave
He's not a standout in yards per out run.
Jamie
No.
Dan
And he might be in targets for outrun, but he's definitely not in yards.
Dave
Right, exactly. And that's the thing. When you see a guy who's high in target per out run, Wondale is 25th in target per out run rate.
Dan
Like 80 something probably in yards for outrun.
Dave
Probably worse. I, I'm doing a filter of he's 69th. When you look at guys with 50 or more targets out of me, that's.
Dan
Really a Daniel Jones stat.
Dave
But yeah, well, yeah, but, but, but like Josh Downs. Josh Downs is interesting. Josh Downs, third highest target per out run rate. I actually had to use a filter of minimum of 70 targets to get rid of guys like Deontay Johnson and Adam Mitchell. So I use 70 targets. Josh Downs is third in target per out run rate. So it's Puka, Nakua, Malik, neighbors, Josh Downs, CD Lamb, Drake London, Nico Collins. You see Josh Downs sticks out like a sore thumb and he's I think 18th in yards per out run because he gets targeted so much. But he's 66 in yards per target. Yeah. So you love the target per out run rate but you got to look at Josh Downs and go, gosh, if he doesn't get a lot of targets.
Dan
You know, that's interesting, Adam, because he's been one of the hottest topic names this offseason on fantasy Twitter. A lot of people that I respect talking about him is probably the best, they believe the best value in Dynasty right now. The player that you should trade for. But when you break it down like that. Adam, how much further? Because like the idea is wow, he gets Daniel Jones the biggest check down artist in the NFL. This is going to explode because he was already third in targets per out run. Right. There's not that much more to grow there and I don't think the yards are outrun will rise from 66. I think it'll actually.
Dave
No, yards for target was 60 yards per hour run was 18th because he's targeted so much on his rounds.
Dan
Yeah, yeah, sorry. Yards for target because I just. Daniel Jones doesn't have a history of making things better for wide receivers. So I don't know about downs be. I think he's getting a little too inflated.
Dave
Okay. I probably have to update this because. Okay. Yards per route Run for your.
Dan
Did you azer stat this?
Dave
No, I just, I. I toggled back between 50 target and 70 target filters.
Jamie
I've got it right in front of me. What do you want to know?
Dave
Josh Downs. So do I, Dave. He's 44th out of 59. 44th out of 59 wide receivers and yards per target. When you look at 70, 70 or more targets. All right, one more email before we get to a break here. This is from. This is from a Quinchon Judkins fan. It's from Zach. He thinks we're sleeping on Quinte on Judkins. He is consistently passed over in discussions of impactful running backs regardless of rookie status or veterans. We're talking about a guy who was the third running back off the board and in a situation that screams workhorse usage. He doesn't like his competition, he doesn't take it seriously and he loves his advanced metrics and his draft capital. So I think Zach has a good point. What are we missing here, Dave? On Quinshawn Judkins, we're missing a potent.
Jamie
Offense that's going to score a lot of points.
Dave
Does that matter as a guy we're taking in in the sixth round?
Jamie
Well, that's what. Right. So like first of all, we're already taking him at a pretty decent spot and I'm taking him ahead of a bunch of other rookies too, especially in non ppr and, and I like him as a talent, but we talked about it during the lead up to the draft. He, he doesn't have a ton of explosive plays. He can do it. It's just that he never really did and he's playing on a Cleveland offense where I don't think anybody's expecting a lot of points to be scored. Heath did bring up on our show yesterday. We talked a lot about teams that have a lot of volume. Cleveland has been toward the top in plays run.
Dan
Right.
Jamie
But I, I don't know if that's going to lead to massive numbers for the running back. It hasn't. Now it's Jerome Ford mostly over the last two seasons and Jerome Ford is just not as talented as Quinshon Judkins. Judkins can be better than that. But can Judkins be. Can he be the second best rookie this year? I mean, I would expect Hampton to be better and PPR Henderson will probably be better. I'd put him in the same range as Caleb Johnson and both. And that's not a slight. It just means that it's not somebody that I'm going to take with like a top 50 pick or anything like that. Good player will get a good opportunity. Brown's defense is going to be competitive, so there will be a bunch of games where I think he can line up and get 15 touches, but he's going to share and I don't know how many touchdowns he'll ultimately get. And that's kind of a problem for a guy that's not going to catch a ton of passes either. So I think around 6 is totally fine for Quinn.
Dave
John Jenkins, didn't he also beat up on all the bad competition? That's my. That's the.
Dan
Yeah, Jacob. Jacob Gibbs had really good numbers on this. His numbers against Power five conference or I guess it's six now. Power six conferences versus the the bad teams. He was much, much more effective in every single metric including raw production versus the bad teams outside the Power 6 conference and really came down a lot versus the Power 6. That to me could be a little like that's not a lot of data to work with. That sample size is not huge in my mind. So I'm not as worried about that as I am worried about the things that they broke down. What am I buying here? If I'm drafting him on fan on my, on my draft night on Fantasy, I'm buying it back in what I think is a really bad offense that could be really, really bad. As in like we're getting 180 to 200 yards a game, a ton of punts, very few red zone possessions, not guaranteed role in the passing game. He's shown capable of but not necessarily sure the Browns are capable of getting their running back involved in the passing game, depending on who's playing quarterback there. And an offensive line that at one point during the Stefanski era was dominant, a scheme that was working really well. Some of that in my mind was Nick Chubb's unbelievable mental processing. One of the best processing backs in the NFL that I've seen over the last 10 years. But that line has fallen in recent years. It's not the same. It's still good. I'd still call it above average, most likely, if they stay healthy, but it's not dominant. So I don't know what I'm buying here. Like you mentioned a name, Dave that I've been consistently drafting over him since the NFL draft happened. It's Caleb Johnson. With Caleb Johnson, I'm getting a proven offensive coordinator who has designed a run game that's very successful, an offensive line on the uptick, a quarterback that's going to be better and moving the ball more, and a player in Caleb Johnson who I think is a better fit for that outside zone blocking scheme that Arthur Smith likes to lean on than Quinton Judkins is for Kevin Stefanski scheme. So I'm not. Maybe I will think Judkin's a little bit better player than Johnson, though I'm not even sold on that. And I'll take a much better situation with Johnson and I'll take a break.
Jamie
Runs of 30 plus yards over 728 career carries in college. He was chased down multiple times over three seasons, including by older defensive backs now playing in The NFL who ran 4, 4, 5 or worse at the scouting combine.
Dave
All right, I'm going to take a break here and we'll come back and read more of your emails, your Apple podcast questions and YouTubers if you're watching. Get to you at the end of the show. We'll be right back.
Heath
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Dave
Tinyurl.com 2025fft tinyurl.com 2025fft that is our get it rolling. That is our Draft a thon page and right now there's only one item you can bid on and it is having your mailbag questions answered on the air. So we are going to release 10 of these at a time. Right now two have been purchased, $50 per question and all of it goes to St. Jude. I know it sounds crazy be like oh, I have to pay 50 bucks to get my question answered. But the point is make a donation to St. Jude. So it's an obviously an amazing charity. Other things you'll be able to see at some point FFT open spots and you'll be able to bid on the rematch Adam and Dan playing tennis. That's going to be in mid August and you can join. You can bid on being on sharing a team with us in the FFT league and the winner of the tennis match gets to pick their draft spot.
Dan
And we have to do more around it. Those details aren't finalized yet. As far as what the the stakes are at play here. Yeah, you know there's going to be high stakes and I'll say this a few things. Notes on draftathon it's my favorite time of the year, my most proud moment being a part of this company. I would say that it's not just lip service what Adam just said when it comes to St. Jude. Do some research. It'll take you five seconds on Google. This is up there for the best charity, if not the best charity in the country. Just look at where all the money is going and look at where, what it does, what they do to help children. So it's really good. Your money will go to a good place. As far as the match goes, me versus Adam, we have some updates coming on that later. But just know this year the production will be better. Won't just be me putting my cell phone up on a cage of a back cage of a tennis court and hoping that you guys can see it. Because by the way, that cell phone did us no favors, Adam. It made us look like much worse players with much worse pace on the ball. This year we're getting more production and, and one more final note on the upcoming match before the pod. It's unbelievable that this is happening already a month and a half out, but Adam is already claiming he's injured, whining to me about something that's bothering him before the, before the show today.
Jamie
Injured.
Dan
I'm like, Adam, do me a favor, rest up baby, because I ain't taking it easy on you when the day comes.
Dave
Yeah, I got a little bit of an elbow soreness going on here, but there we go. FFT Open. By the way, the teams will be released. You'll be able to bid on FFT open spots on July 21, so save that date. Yeah. Dan and I are both playing tennis today separately so we are in training mode. Okay, here we go guys. I spent a lot of time in those first few emails intentionally. Good topics. Probably gonna have to. Maybe this one will spend some time on too and then we'll go a little bit quicker. This is from Matt. Looking for consistency here. We always look at final stats point per game, but isn't consistency more important? Do you have any best way to measure this chat? GPT could probably do this, but I don't have the time to spot check.
Jamie
Well, I can also do this because I measure this every year. Depending on the position, there's a number that I said is a baseline as far as PPR points goes. And then I just measure how many games a player had above that threshold divided by the number of the games they played. And then there's an obvious natural ranking that comes along with it. So I've got the players who are the most consistent and least consistent that you might give a damn about. Name the position and I'll tell you.
Dave
Yeah, quarterback.
Dan
Yeah.
Jamie
All right, so the baseline for quarterback is 22 fantasy points per game. That's in a six point per touchdown league. Guys, take a guess. Who do you think was the most consistent? Lamar Jackson quarterback fantasy last Year, lamar.
Dave
Jackson, only two games. You are correct, sir. 20.
Dan
Yeah.
Jamie
He had the most games. Can you name who was second?
Dan
Yeah, I want to guess that because obviously we knew Lamar. I think it might be Jared Goff. No, no.
Jamie
Jared Goff was tied for 10.
Dave
Faker Mayfield.
Dan
That was a terrible.
Jamie
Baker Mayfield was number two.
Dan
Wow.
Dave
I know.
Dan
It's good that he's good at something.
Jamie
After that. There's a three way tie between Josh Allen, Jaden Daniels and Sam Darnold. Keep in mind that this is just the, the baseline number that we're talking about. It doesn't take fantasy point per game average into consideration. And I say that because Josh Allen, Jaden Daniels, Sam Darnold all tied for third in consistency. But Josh Allen was, was fourth in fantasy points per game. Jaden Daniels right behind him. Sam Darnold a little bit further behind. But that's the type of thing some people care about, that they don't want to just draft a guy. You hear a number 18 PPR points per game. Well, what good is that number if four of the games are in the high 20s?
Dan
Right.
Jamie
And everything else is like 11 points per game? You know, now we're talking about like what we used to say about Tyler Lockett back in the, the day where you start him and you hope he has one of those big blow up games and helps you win your week. But more than often he's a dud on your roster and you kind of wish that you didn't start him. So consistency is something that matters. I think you guys might be interested to know that Tua was. I'm sorry. Patrick Mahomes was the only quarterback.
Dan
Points.
Jamie
Per game who finished 20th or worse inconsistency last year.
Dan
Wow.
Jamie
We could do this for all the other positions. Or you can come back to me and I'll give you a couple of.
Dave
Oh, wait, wait. Okay, give me a second here. So. So Patrick Mahomes. What? Say that again. He was. Go ahead.
Jamie
Patrick Mahomes was 10th in fantasy points per game last year. Again, six point per passing touchdowns. He was 20th. Inconsistency.
Dave
Yeah, because consistency is reaching 22 points.
Jamie
Right.
Dave
Well, he barely, he didn't even average that. So of course he's not going to, going to be high. Like how could he be high in consistency if he didn't even.
Jamie
When he's averaging 20.9.
Dave
Sure, yeah. So that makes sense. But this is what I find amazing about Lamar Jackson. One of the knocks I had on Lamar Jackson was that he was incredibly inconsistent for the four years prior to last season, 2020 to 2023, he scored fewer than 20 fantasy points and six point per passing touchdown leagues in 43% of his games. That's Lamar Jackson fewer than 20 fantasy points in 43% of his games from 2020 to 2023. He did that twice last year. And by comparison, 43% of his games for Lamar Jackson in that same stretch, 21% for Patrick Mahomes, 18% for Josh Allen. They one out of five games, they would be under 20 fantasy points. From 2020 to 2023, Lamar Jackson was nearly half. So he, he was wildly inconsistent except for his two unbelievable years where he scored 30 fantasy points per game. I still think that might be in his profile, that inconsistency, you know, so I. It is interesting that he finished number one because he would not have been number one, I guarantee you, the previous four years.
Dan
I mean, his touchdown rate in the red zone is almost guaranteed to come down.
Dave
Oh, you're still stealing my stat.
Dan
It's a stat everybody's putting out there. It's so. Yes, you need to consider. I mean, anyone who knows anything about fantasy, this is the number one regression candidate in fantasy. It doesn't mean he still won't fake. Couldn't finish one or around there. But he's definitely not someone I'm projecting to finish one.
Dave
All right, this is from Colin. If you were a wrestler, what would your entry music be?
Dan
I can't. I can't believe Adam's claiming that's that as he's the one who.
Dave
I gave it on the show. Yesterday was the stat of the day.
Dan
Yesterday, Just yesterday. You gave it. Oh, I saw that weeks ago on Twitter. Weeks ago.
Dave
All right. What would your wrestling entry music be?
Dan
Oh, I thought he said name. My name would have been Azer's worst nightmare. My intro music. Good question. This is great.
Jamie
How about can I pick a wrestler's theme?
Dan
No, no. This has got to be unique, Dave. Pick your own. And as somebody who doesn't know wrestling very well, just besides like old school wwf, which I used to love because otherwise. Yeah, if we were picking a rest, I would just pick the stone. Go class break. That's a great one.
Dave
I saw that on Twitter three weeks ago. Good call.
Dan
Yeah, someone just wrote saw that on.
Jamie
Twitter 20 years ago.
Dan
Yeah, I mean, this Lamar Jackson regression stat is not Adams. It really is.
Dave
50% red zone touchdown rate is the highest since at least 2000.
Dan
Yes, I know it. I saw it two weeks ago.
Dave
Okay. Anyway, it doesn't seem like you have an answer.
Dan
So give me Enter Sandman.
Dave
Okay, that's. That's pretty good a day of anything.
Jamie
I would also pick an equally rocking song. I would go with Looking for Freedom by David Hasselhoff.
Dan
I take it back. I want down with the Sickness by Disturbed just so I can do the. Oh, wow.
Dave
Yeah, that's a good one. I would, I, I would. Usually people have asked what my baseball walk up music would be and I always say My Hero by the Foo.
Dan
Fighters, which depends where I played. Depends where I played. If I played in Citi Field, it would be something by Nas. Something from his first album from Illmatic. I don't know.
Dave
I wasn't asking you. I was in the middle of a story. But for wrestling, I don't think that works. I would go with down by Stone Temple Pilots. It's like.
Dan
Yeah, I only know that from last year when you told me to listen to them.
Dave
Oh, really? Nice.
Dan
Yeah, they're on my shuffle now.
Dave
Oh, they're the best.
Dan
They're good.
Jamie
Can I give him Malik neighbors stat?
Dave
No question for Heath.
Dan
What?
Dave
This is from Charles.
Dan
Great. Well, he's not on the show, so why don't you filter this out beforehand?
Dave
Okay. If you're looking, it looks like you're projecting a 20 decline in bucky Irving's receiving stats this year. Why? I would think his snapshare and workload should grow considering his low usage early last season. So he's not on the show. But we could talk about what we expect from Bucky Irving's receiving stats, which last year, Dave, were 47 catches, 392 yards on 52 targets.
Dan
Targets.
Jamie
I would hope that he at least maintains that over a 17 game pace. If not, gets a little bit more on top of it. Tampa absolutely has to use him more. The, the stat that just blows my mind about Bucky Irving because he was so good last year is that he only had three games where he played at least 60% of the snaps. So a lot of these games where he was putting up huge numbers, he's playing like 45 of the snaps, 50 of the snapshot. I, I think they've got to give him a bigger piece of the pie. And if, if that happens, then by nature he should be able to still be an effective player, High efficiency player, get a little bit more work and you know, be an asset for fantasy managers. He has a great schedule grade too for this year. It's not like Chase Brown's where he's at the bottom for running backs. And I. There was something that I read it was from Todd Bowles where they asked him to do like one or two specific things, this offset. And I can't remember, it was something about like his foot placement when he got the ball, something like that. Some sort of. I don't know if it was a foot alignment issue or something else. I gotta look for it. But Todd Bowles is like, yeah, he. He absolutely got better there. And so, like, little things like that, like, those are the little technique things that fancy owners like, they don't even. They don't care about that stuff. But that's the thing that coaches care about that would give a player more opportunities. And opportunities are what we crave in fantasy football. So if Bucky Irving is doing things to earn more opportunities, and we saw what he did last year as a rusher, as a pass catcher, then by all means he should be able to do outstanding things this year.
Dan
Okay, I like Bucky. Yeah, go ahead.
Dave
No, I was just gonna say, even when he really took over the backfield Beginning in Week 16, he had 72 carries the rest of this season, compared to 10 for Rashad White. I think that includes a postseason game. Rashad White was still almost the exclusive third down back, so I don't see Bucky gaining that role. So 50 catches for a guy who's not the third down back is still pretty damn good. He's at 47 last year, and if he's cut that, I'll let Heath speak on that. I don't know.
Dan
But I know why he has it down. He has it down because he is very based on projections and he's putting a bigger piece of the pie for this wide receiver corpse core. And why wouldn't he? Because Igbuka is. Is being added to this wide receiver core. And McMillan could take another step forward in year two. So if everything goes right for the Bucks, they're working through those progressions. They're getting the ball, those receivers, not Irving in the passing game.
Dave
All right, ready? Next question. Dan, I'll give this to you. It's from Tyler. He says, dear Antonio, Chase, Deontay and Martavis, all Browns.
Dan
I know all Steelers wide receivers.
Dave
There you go. Yeah, we don't have to start a tight end in my redraft league, we start two running backs and three wide receiver slash tight ends in this format. How high would you draft Bowers or McBride? Second round or third round?
Dan
That's a great question because I know a few people are switching toward these leagues. It definitely wouldn't be the first round. I would. Is it is it ppr. Did he mention anything about ppr?
Dave
I don't know, but that does make a big difference because they both had 111 or 12 catch.
Dan
Yeah, right. Like it's their whole game.
Dave
Last year. I'll give you a little help. Last year they. They were wide receiver. 17 and 18 per game based on what they did. But Remember, that was three total touchdowns for McBride, five for Bowers.
Dan
Not. I don't expect their touchdowns to jump. It may be Bowers by a little. I don't expect McBride such as Brad.
Dave
Will have more than three touchdowns.
Dan
I mean, maybe four or five, six. Okay, I'll go over. If you're saying six. I'll go over under six with you.
Dave
Okay.
Dan
Okay. For what?
Dave
Dinner. Dinner in the city.
Dan
A what? Dinner in the city.
Dave
Dinner in the city.
Dan
When will we both be in the city, though?
Dave
We'll make plans. Hey, you want to go to the city, we'll go and get dinner.
Dan
You owe me just to get dinner, though. We got to do something. I would. I'd rather just be like dinner by you and then we play tennis or something. You know what I mean? Like, we're not going. What are we going to the city for?
Dave
That's fine with me. Dinner by me and then tennis. Sure.
Dan
Okay. All right. It's not necessarily by you, the tennis. At one point, you're gonna have to. Whoever wins the bet, I've been driving. Yeah, whoever wins the bet, the other person's driving to them for once.
Dave
Okay.
Dan
Okay. All right. Anyway, I'll go under 6, but yeah, I think in PPR, full PPR, I can get on board with like that late 2 range, late round 2 range. If it's half or. Or even standard, they lose a lot of value for me because my whole point, like I would draft these guys because I want the weekly advantage at the position of tight end. Yeah, I'm not getting that weekly advantage. It takes away a lot of the luster for me.
Dave
All right, this is from Colin. From Dave. The third largest town in Pennsylvania on Saturdays in autumn.
Dan
Say that again.
Dave
The third largest town in Pennsylvania on Saturday.
Jamie
College.
Dave
Yeah, State college.
Dan
Wow.
Dave
He wants. He wants. I'm not going to read the whole thing, but he wants to take London over Higgins because he thinks London is more consistent. And Higgins basically blew up in the fantasy playoffs last year, but on a week by week basis, he wants the consistency of Drake. London didn't mention that.
Jamie
Drake London scored 40 fantasy points, weaker train.
Dave
But Dave, who do you like London or. I know, I know. Dan And I like Higgins. Who do you like, London or Higgins?
Jamie
I think I have London over Higgins in my rankings. I can triple check that. But it's, it's going to be close between the two of them. And since I have it open, I've got these consistency rankings. Higgins was ahead of London last year, and that was with Drake. London's monstrous game in week 18. Look, I think it's. If you believe in T. Higgins and you think he can keep up with what he did last year and you can kind of overlook the, the injury bug with him, then I, I think you take T. Higgins if you want someone a little bit safer, someone who's going to have a lot of targets. London had more targets per game than T. Higgins. It was close between the two of them, but he had a little bit more. Might have had to do with week 18. I can double check that. Then London's your pick.
Dan
Okay.
Dave
All right, next question is from David in Toronto, Ontario. 12 team, half PPR league. I have the second overall pick. Jamar Chase is going first. I will be taking Bijan. What do you think about stacking him with Drake? London, Bijan to second overall? London 23rd overall. Yeah, Dave, I'll let you go first on this one. Are you okay with that stack?
Jamie
I don't love it. I would prefer to get. See, this is where I would go. T. Higgins over Drake, London just to have some diversity and, and not be so loaded on the Falcons. I, I don't mind taking Bijan first. That's great. But getting London to go along with it. I can double check for you how often they both had big games last year. It was probably pretty frequent because Bijan had big games almost every week anyway. But I, I think I would rather go and get a receiver from a different team to try and just, you know, spread myself out a little bit.
Dave
Yeah, I looked at the best stacks from the last three years, which is a. There's kind of a. Not really an easy way to do this, but last three years, a team that had both a running back and a wide receiver finish in the top 12 in PPR overall, not per game. And where did their teams rank, finish in points per game? The worst team offensively that had a stack, a running back and a wide receiver that finished top 12 in PPR was the 2023 Buccaneers with Rashad White and Mike Evans. So these are both like kind of low end top 12 guys. And they finished 20th in scoring. Now Bijan and London were one of these stacks last year. They both finished top 12 and they were 17th in scoring. That's the second lowest. So it is possible to have, you know, some mediocre offense and a top 12 stack however that, you know, what if they're 25th in offense? What if Pennix really stinks? You're going to regret that pick. I think of Drake London so big time.
Jamie
Yeah, there were seven games last year where they both had at least 15 PPR points. That's a high number. So maybe it's not a total killer if you decide to go all in on the Falcons. But I would rather if you're going to stack guys, I'd rather do it from teams that are more potent offensively than the Falcons.
Dan
I will say one thing though. Going through it, just looking through some of the work you've done this week, Dave, on strength of schedule and you could find all that by the way for those listening on our website, just check out fantasy football, CBS Sports backslash fantasy football but I think throughout the NFC south this year there's going to be some easy games and a very easy schedule and a very soft look of a lot of soft looks for these two players. So that's working in their favor. The other thing is Zach Robinson, they run a lot of plays in Atlanta. I like that a lot for fantasy. So they're really pushing the tempo. They're going to do a lot of no, no huddle and up tempo I think at home with Pennix to get him comfortable. So those are all the things working in their favor. I do think there is the possibility though that look, we don't know how many teams had a top eight grade on panics. It might have just been Atlanta. Penix last year was electric when throwing outside the numbers was not electric on some of the routine stuff and some of the timing based rhythm stuff over the middle of the field that he's gonna have to get better at or this offense is going to punt a lot.
Dave
All right, we're going to take a quick break. I got one more email to read then Apple podcast questions, then YouTube questions, then hot dogs. We'll be right back on Fantasy football today. Shop 4th of July Savings at the Home Depot right now and get up to 40% off plus up to an extra $600 off select appliances with free delivery like Samsung from all in one washer dryers to smart refrigerators upgrade to tech you can trust with Samsung appliances. The Home Depot has what you need to simplify your routine. Don't miss 4th of July appliance savings at the Home Depot free delivery on appliance purchases of $396 or more offer valid June 18 through July 9, US only. See store or online for details.
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Dave
All right, I think we just got to get a nickname for Dan. I think we're going to call him the Plug. Because this guy, he plugs things. He plugs content Dave. You read his article. I mean, he is a plugger. He just comes on and plugs.
Dan
Go ahead, go to our site, read our site, donate to draftathon. Help us out there.
Jamie
He is just better than the guy that plugs our charity drive with the wrong URL.
Dave
Adam, I did not.
Jamie
Oh, I thought you did.
Dave
How did I do that?
Dan
And by the way, if you're listening right now, hit the like button, please and leave a comment, please. We need your help. Just hit the like button. It takes two seconds. Hover your hand over the mouse and just click like that.
Dave
That's the plug. Tinyurl.com 2025F Plug God by the way, if you're gonna. No, this question is from. Ooh, I don't have a name or a city.
Jamie
Dave, it is Fran from somewhere in New Orleans. Let's go with Metairie, Louisiana.
Dave
Okay. Somewhere in New Orleans.
Jamie
Better is a suburb of New Orleans.
Dave
Oh, okay. Dear Swan, Ajax, Cowboy, and Rembrandt.
Dan
Stop looking at me. Oh, we got there at the same time, if not slay. I got there the same time. You've not slightly before you.
Dave
But that's not what this is a reference of, apparently.
Dan
Name that movie, Adam. Him.
Dave
Okay, I will not name that movie because I am so insulted that you would even ask me to name that.
Dan
Movie like that movie. No, not that movie. Not. Stop looking at me. Swan name. I got there at the same time as you.
Dave
Oh, we've already done this. That was McGruber. Yes, but I didn't. You. You had to remind me of that one. It's one of my favorite run of your references. Those are from the 1979 film The Warriors. Handcuffing running backs is a strategy that's being used in fantasy. That's been used in fantasy for many years. But. But is there any value in using the same strategy at wide receiver. Would I handcuff someone like Andre Yoshivas if Chaser Higgins gets hurt? Even if it means taking Yoshivas over a mid level wide receiver such as Christian Kirk or Rashad Bateman? What are your I have a lot of thoughts on this email, but Dave, you can kick it off.
Jamie
I think it's rare when we find one a receiver that it makes sense to handcuff, but I think the very first one, this name hit me like a bolt of lightning just now. Emeka Abuka. Yeah, who could, who's probably already going to have a role in this Bucks offense to begin with. But if something were to happen to Mike Evans or Chris Godwin? Keeping in mind that Evans is significantly older than a typical NFL receiver and Godwin is coming back from injury, a Buka could see huge target volume. So I love the idea, I love the idea of drafting a Buka. Anyway, I've got him as a as round 10 ish type pick and that could always go up. It will go up if one of those two veteran receivers aren't ready to go for the start of the season. But if I do invest in Mike Evans in Chris Godwin, yeah, I'm looking for a Mecca Buka. I might even go around nine to get him on my team just to back him up. But it's, it's a very rare situation. I'd have to really think about whether or not I'd want to go with even like you know, two or three other wide receivers that make sense as handcuff type players for for a certain spot. I think it would almost have to be that exact scenario where we know who the two starters are on a certain team. We expect them to be high volume guys and yet there's a third receiver who will play alongside them and see a massive uptick in targets. If something were to happen to one of the other two guys, people were.
Dave
Saying this is the friendship strategy. No, this is not the friendship strategy. The friendship strategy is you take a guy, you take two players on the same team, they both have value where you took them. So you're not reaching for them. You're not taking a guy like Andre Yoshevis. But if one of them gets hurt, the other one is a boom. Now I just think off the top of my head you could maybe make that case with Tyreek Hill and Jalen Waddle, something like that. But this handcuffing a wide receiver, first of all, you got the wrong bangle. The Bengal that benefited when Higgins was out was Mike Kosicki. So if you're in a super deep league and you are just like using a last one of your last picks, you know, maybe it's a best ball league or something like that. Think about Kosicki. Isaiah likely is a tight end. Handcuff. He is an absolute mustad. If Mark Andrews were to get hurt. I don't know. Yeah, this reminds me of the Rams. Remember the Rams? They lost Puka and Cooper cup at the same time last year. We didn't know who to get on waivers. Turned out really nobody. Tutu atwell, Jordan Whittington, DeMarcus Robinson. None of them really did anything all that significant. Maybe Atwell, if. If anyone. So no, I don't think handcuffing wide receivers is a good idea. But I handcuff quarterbacks. But I don't handcuff them with their. Their backup. I handcuff them with just a backup quarterback because that's people. Oh, why do you draft so many coin? Why do you drift backup quarterback? You have Joe Burrow. What if Joe Burrow gets hurt? I'd rather.
Dan
Who is that? Who's that? Whose voice are you? Image.
Dave
Jamie.
Jamie
Let's hear that voice again.
Dave
I don't know. I mean it's just like. Like my Patrick from spongebob actually.
Dan
But anyway, Jamie. Is that what you said?
Dave
Jamie always criticizes me for taking back up quarterbacks. Yeah, but that's not his voice.
Jamie
Okay, I can share two other receivers that might fit into this.
Dave
Go ahead.
Jamie
Late round guys that you can pick. One is Darius Slayton, who is probably going to have a role on your team's Giants.
Dan
Sir.
Jamie
Anyway, but it we saw last year when neighbors went out, who was the guy that got the most work?
Dave
Yeah, no, it was actually a pretty good call. He's pretty good if I remember.
Jamie
And in Kansas City, Hollywood Brown isn't expected to be a high target volume earner. I swear I talk for a living. A high target volume earner to begin the year. But if Rice misses time, if Worthy isn't as good, this. If Kelsey gets hurt, Brown's going to see more playing time. So there you go. You got three wide receivers that you could handcuff if you. If you so chose.
Dave
All right, time for some apple podcast questions. First of all, Dan, what's your favorite type of apple?
Dan
Good question.
Jamie
There's only one right answer.
Dan
Wow, this is a great question. I think it might be Fuji apple. A Fuji apple. You guys ever had those?
Dave
Yeah. Dave, What's. What's the Right answer.
Jamie
The right answer is Honey Crisp.
Dan
I was going, honey, have you guys.
Dave
Had a Pink Lady?
Dan
You know what a good Pink Lady's. Good Pink Ladies are the good. Honey Crisp is the best. Dave, you're right. Those big. The bigger ones you're talking about.
Jamie
Yes. It could be a meal.
Dan
Those big Honey Crisp. I actually think Dave is right. There is only one right answer. Now let me ask him more commonly. You know what do you guys prefer a nice Granny Smith or just a classic Red Apple?
Jamie
I feel like I'm in the old.
Dave
Folks home Classic Red, but I'm.
Dan
I'm basically pink like the sour Granny Smith over the classic Red.
Dave
I'm Pink lady or nothing. Pink Lady.
Dan
Yeah. I'd rather go the mix like the, you know, the hybrids.
Dave
I also, I've been kind of fascinated. And we'll do this at the very end of the show.
Dan
Okay.
Dave
I went to the grocery store last week and I went on a fruit frenzy. I bought 11 different kinds of fruit, which is definitely a wreck. We ate almost all of it. Like, this is a great season for fruit. So I want to see how many Dan can name later that you bought.
Dan
Out of the 11. I'll give you.
Dave
I'll give you maybe three wrong guesses. If Dave wants to play, can play too. But I want to see how many you can. You can name.
Jamie
All right.
Dave
Apple podcast questions. This one is from J. Capalbo. Can you talk about keeper strategy of value versus best player, regardless of round? Does it change based on format? PPR versus half, PBR 10 team versus 12 team, three receiver league? Dave? Yeah. What strategy of value versus best player.
Jamie
Sure. So format obviously matters. And how long you can keep a player for also matters. Not all keeper leagues are built the same way. Some leagues you keep a player, you don't lose a draft pick. Some leagues you keep a player, you lose your first draft pick or you keep a player and you lose the round that you took that player in last year. It can even get more complicated than that. But you just have to evaluate how long you can keep a player for and, or how much it will cost you when you make these decisions. And. And that's really it. And if, if there's a close call, you probably lean toward the guy that you can keep longer.
Dave
Yeah. Okay, but let's say it's not that, right? So let's say it's. I have can keep Bijan Robinson in the first or Chase Brown in the eighth. You know, we get a lot of.
Jamie
Those keeping Chase Brown in the eighth.
Dave
Okay. What if it's Bijan in the second or Chase Brown in the eighth and.
Jamie
Then it's probably Bijan. You want to get at least some good value out of, out of your keeper if you can help it.
Dave
I think in the shallower leagues, I'm probably less concerned about the round and more into the best available, best player. That doesn't mean I'm not concerned about the round, but the round value matters more. I don't want to come away. Make sure you can draft a stud. Think about who's going to be kept and where your position is in the draft. And if you can't draft a stud, then keep us. That's right, keep a stud. All right. From Tud 18:19. Dear Ricky, Julian, Bubbles and Randers, by.
Jamie
The way, by the way, we answer a ton of those keeper questions all off season and preseason long. So if you have those types of.
Dave
Questions, don't say that.
Jamie
Reach out to us and we'll answer them.
Dave
You could maybe I'm not going to do it on the air so much, maybe via email. But the time for those questions.
Jamie
Email Blue Sky. We're around.
Dave
Or you can pay 50 comments and do the St. Jude donation. All right. Dear Ricky, Julian, Bubbles and Randers. That is that park. What is it? The trailer. Trailer park boys. Yeah. 10 team PPR keeper league. Oh, here we go. Do I keep a chan in the third or Jaden Daniels in the ninth? In a 10 team keeper league.
Jamie
There you go. Tough.
Dave
It is tough.
Jamie
The and so like my very first question will be how long can you keep these guys?
Dan
Yeah.
Jamie
Because if I can keep Jaden Daniels in the ninth round, entire career, like I, I will sign up for that.
Dan
Over especially they're only going up like around a year, which some leagues do, right?
Jamie
Same thing. But what if it's for only one year after this, you lose both, they go right back to the player pool.
Dave
No matter what that I'm going hm.
Jamie
Then I'm going hm.
Dan
Yeah, then it's hm. But if you're playing long term, it's Daniels.
Jamie
Right? And so like I look at this and, and I see both players, they're great values. They're both great values. Devon Hn in round three, everybody would take that. He's a round one pick. Jane Daniels is going to be like a round two, round three pick and you're getting him in round nine. So I'm not just going to lean toward Daniels because there's a bigger gap between where he, he's where his ADP is and where you can keep him. But they're both awesome deals. And so if it's just for one year, maybe even for only two years, I think HN is the right answer. But longer than that, it's Daniels Grant.
Dave
Says dear Harry, Conrad, Kevin and Eddie.
Jamie
Harry, Conrad, Kevin and Eddie.
Dave
So I just had to look it up. This is Mobland, which is high on.
Dan
The list of shows I've heard this. I have to watch the show. This is like the fourth. It's like. And it's Paramount plus. So we have the plug.
Dave
The plug is back.
Dan
Plug.
Jamie
God.
Dan
Plug. God. Thank you. Thank you.
Dave
All right. Of all the five fantasy podcasts I listen to daily, this one is by far the best. Thank you.
Jamie
Yes. Let's go. I agree.
Dave
I'm already keeping just the plugs and it's our plug. In other podcasts I'm already keeping Justin fields for an 18th round pick and St. Brown for a 16th round pick. This is a 10 team half PPR Super Flex lead league. So I have two more. Drake London in the 13th, Chase Brown in the 11th, Kyler in the 10th or Neighbors in the 4th. Oh, Kyler's easy, right? We gotta go kyler in the 10th round of a Super Flex.
Jamie
It's a 10 team league though.
Dave
I know, but you can.
Jamie
You can quarterback. There's not as much pressure in a 10 team or. Compared to a 12 or.
Dan
Yeah, I agree with that.
Dave
I wouldn't say it's. It is.
Jamie
And I mean the. The value. I. How do pass on Drake London in the 13th?
Dave
No, I wouldn't. I would do Drake London.
Jamie
You cannot.
Dan
I would take Neighbors over Kyler for sure.
Dave
Neighbors in the fourth versus Kyler in the 10th in a Super Flex.
Jamie
Hold on. Do you have to keep fields in the 18th?
Dave
I would.
Jamie
Are we sure he's going to be a thing next year?
Dan
If you're getting quarterbacks like Fields and KYLER in the 18th and 10th keeper leagues, it means this superplex league is devaluing quarterbacks. The fact that this is even possible.
Dave
No, wait. Fields wasn't even a starter last.
Dan
Well, he was what Kyler was. How do you get him in the 10th?
Jamie
Right, right, right, right, right. When did Kyler go 10th or later in his life?
Dan
I guess he was injured that one year coming. He was coming back last year off the injury or whatever, but like two years ago.
Dave
All right, fine. I'm sticking with Kyler in London. What's your answer?
Dan
Neighbors in London for me.
Jamie
Neighbors, Kyler, London, St. Brown. Okay, throwing back Justin Fields.
Dan
You can redraft I see. I can do.
Jamie
It'll be a lot higher. Somebody else.
Dan
It's Fields or Murray for me. I'll go with Fields. He's going to play all season. He's going to score more than kyler.
Dave
Wake up. 23 says grade this dynasty trade PPR1 quarterback league. This is a tough one here. I give up. Breeze, Hall, DJ Moore, Terry McLaurin and a 2026 first round pick.
Jamie
Whoa, that's a lot. What are you getting?
Dan
Blockbuster.
Dave
Breeze, Hall, DJ Moore, McLaurin and a 2026 first four. Christian McCaffrey and Malik neighbors. Oh, I have Isaac Arando on my bench.
Dan
If I mean neighbors is cool to get, but you gave up a lot. What was it again? It was Breeze. What else?
Dave
Breeze, D.J. morris, McLaurin and a 2026 first from McCaffrey and neighbors. My thought was I would do this for a 2026 second. The first.
Jamie
Yeah. You're not gonna get it done for that.
Dan
That.
Jamie
Well, apparently got Neighbors is gonna value him like one of the.
Dan
I mean, how much more McCaffrey do we have?
Dave
One, one or two years.
Jamie
Buckle my shoe.
Dan
So it's a lot like just neighbors for all of that and then a little.
Jamie
Right. That's kind of the way that I would look at it, too.
Dan
I don't know. It's a lot. I still think I would do it though, if I'm playing to win now. And clearly he's playing to win now. Giving up the first round pick in the future.
Dave
Very close. Give it a c. All right, YouTube, here we go. What do we got? What are your questions here?
Dan
Happy Fourth. YouTube.
Dave
Kyron Williams or Lamar Jackson?
Dan
Lamar.
Jamie
Like, who would I rather draft? Go to dinner with?
Dan
No. Chiron. I would never draft Lamar.
Jamie
Kyron's gonna get picked before Lamar.
Dan
I do not want Kyron this year.
Jamie
Yeah, I'm. I'm falling out of love with him, too.
Dave
I think he's fine.
Dan
Probably never draft.
Dave
Still just rushing for over 500 yards. He's probably going to be around a top 12 guy. And if Marvin Harrison takes a big step, then, you know, there's some ups, there's upside there. But I'm not just.
Dan
What?
Jamie
What is Marvin.
Dave
I'm sorry. I'm going Kyler, Kyron versus them.
Jamie
I'm gonna take Lamar over. Kyler.
Dave
Yeah, you know what?
Dan
I'll take Lamar over.
Dave
I was trying to make a. I was.
Dan
I'll take. I'll take Lamar over. Kyler.
Dave
Yeah, I was trying to make a joke.
Dan
That'll do.
Dave
I was trying to Make a joke at Dan. Yeah, yeah, that'll do. Yeah. Yes. I know that I was trying to make a joke at Dan's expense and I lost. I lost track of the show. Okay, this is a good question. Do you guys buy the hype? ETN is actually being given the chance to remain RB1 in Jackson Jacksonville.
Dan
No, I don't. I think tanks big was a better runner last year. I think tank speaks be better yards after contact yards before contact. But I do think ETN was playing through an injury last year. So the question is, is. Is that the reason why his advanced numbers were so down and why he looked like the worst back out there by far to me than Bigsby. And that's going to be something I have to wait to see, I guess in the preseason and honestly, sadly the regular season to really get a good feel for it. Most likely because ETN at one point in his career, before last year in Clemson, he was top three enforcements, tackle rate. And Adam, you went over this in his first couple years with the Jags. He was really good enforcements that great. He was a good runner at one point. He wasn't last year. I like Pigsby's profile better either way. It's enough for me to believe that no ETM won't be this clear cut RB1, especially when you put in toot into the mix. Allen, I've heard might take third downs because he's the best pass blocker on the team already. Like, there's just a lot of backs. There's four backs. They're all going to make the roster. They drafted two of them this year. It's not a situation I love.
Jamie
And you want to find the guy in Jacksonville because you watch Liam Cohen, right? 2nd Liam Cohen reference of the show. By the way. You watch Liam Cohen and how he designed plays for Tampa last year and it's amazing. It's. It's good stuff like. Like uses a ton of misdirection not just on pass plays, but run plays as well. Opened up space because the linebackers are out of position. It's definitely part of the reason why Bucky ended up being so good in the second half of last season because he was schemed up really well. And now Liam Cohen is in Jacksonville and he's going to be able to do a lot of those similar things with his running backs there. But Dan, I think you nailed it. I think that we're going to see different running backs at different times step up and have big games for Jacksonville. And I don't think there's going to be many sticky, you know, anything more than like maybe two games in a row. Three games in a row. I don't think there's going to be a stud running back that comes out of Jacksonville. You want to take one of these guys and put them on your bench, that's fine. Etn's the one I have the ranked the highest. He's barely a top 100 player for me. Bigsby definitely had the efficiency in his favor. Tutin is a fumble away from being on the bench for like six weeks.
Dave
So next question.
Jamie
I wouldn't be surprised if it's one up. Love Travis or Tank, but I don't think you'll ever feel super confident starting either one of them.
Dave
Next question is from Johnny Airport. Baked burger or hot dog with ketchup?
Dan
Good question. Do I get to make the burger any way I want? For example, if I can make a burger that's not just, you know, ground.
Jamie
Makes the burger because.
Dan
Yeah, because if I'm. Well, that's the thing. Because if I'm making the burger, he's just taking like ground beef. He's just like kind of making a crappy patty out of it and just like plopping it in an oven. It dries it out. But if I can mix it with breadcrumbs and egg and stuff to like juice it up, it needs. This is the thing.
Dave
Egg. You and eggs.
Dan
Well, yeah, I love it.
Dave
Always back with eggs.
Dan
Eggs are a superfood. You have no idea. But you really don't. But as far as the burgers go, like, if you're gonna bake a burger, you're gonna dry it out. You're ruining the burger.
Dave
Yeah, no, we know this. Just answer the question. Baked burgers or hot dog with ketchup. You don't have to rip bake. I don't do baked burgers anymore. They suck. Okay.
Dan
I'm over it.
Dave
Yeah, I air fry everything. Okay. Baked burger or hot dog with ketchup.
Dan
Oh, I didn't know that. Okay, I'll go with the baked burger, hot dog.
Dave
Hot dog with ketchup.
Dan
I want ketchup on any hot dog.
Dave
What are your thoughts on drafting Jaden Higgins? Late reminds me of a potential Tank Dell in his rookie season. This is Texans third round rookie Jaden Higgins.
Jamie
As far as talent goes, they couldn't be farther apart. Yeah, he's also gigantic. That's actually a strength, is that he can be a physical outside receiver who can win 50, 50 balls and. And be a good complimentary pass catcher. In Houston's offense. The only way I'd be more interested in Higgins is if Joe Mixon misses time and it forces Houston to throw the ball maybe a little bit more than they'd want to. And that would up the target volume for him and that would make him an interesting fantasy play. But I imagine he will be third on the team in targets behind Nico, obviously, and then Christian Kirk in the slot. Not kind of a safeish PPR guy that you can look for late on draft day, middle of the late on draft day. But if you want to put Higgins on your bench, I don't have a problem with it. I do think he's very talented.
Dan
I'm the opposite on that. Just real quick. I think he's like my perfect ideal type, late round, last round type pick because I believe there's a chance, given his profile, 6, 4 can move pretty damn good for a 6 foot 4 athlete, that he could be the guy that wins like the, the late season guy that wins your league. Because there, yes, there are guys there, Kirk and there are players that are in the mix there, but there's also opportunity there for sure in Houston. And he has somewhat of that Nico Collins esque build that they already found with Nico Collins a few years ago out of Michigan, who dominated the Senior bowl and was held back by bad quarterback play in some ways. Higgins too was held back by bad quarterback play at Iowa State. So I like that play.
Dave
All right, next question or comment is from Garrett. Just had to say the thumbnail with Adam as a mailman might be the greatest of all time. Adam looks like he was born to be a mailman. All right, let's see this thumbnail.
Dan
I get what you're saying when you say that. Garrett, he does come. Oh my God. Oh, my God.
Dave
He does look like he was born.
Jamie
To be a mailman.
Dan
And he does your thumbnails.
Dave
Thomas does.
Dan
It definitely looks like he was born to be a mailman. So I don't think you could make a more fitting that it looks perfect. It looks like that's just Adam every day that he's just going throughout his day.
Jamie
All right, when you're scrolling through YouTube and you see that, you can't help but click on the video.
Dave
Jacob wants to know if we can buy a Jacoby Myers breakout. I cannot. I don't think he's a good enough. Yeah, sorry.
Dan
Kobe Myers straight up.
Jamie
But would it shock you if he averaged 13 PPR points per game and was a pretty steady wide receiver? 3.
Dan
No, no, no, no. But if that's happening. Bowers is done. You're wasting a draft pick on him.
Dave
Last question from Dan here. Different Dan, how are you valuing Chuba Hubbard?
Dan
I like it has been so consistently good when given opportunity and we still don't. What do you mean?
Dave
That's just not true. He wasn't. He wasn't good. No. At the end of 2023 he was not good at 2024, he was amazing.
Dan
Last year was his first good year with.
Dave
Given the opportunity. Yeah, let's see.
Dan
2023, that's post Bryce Young playing good football. Because I think Bryce Young will continue to play at the level he played around the mid season mark last year.
Dave
No, he was great. I mean he was great last year. Okay. In his last 12 games of 2023, Chuba Hubbard was on pace for 288 yards. He averaged 3, 280 carries, 288 carries. So that's work. That's, you know, that's basically workhorse. He averaged 3.7 yards per carry, 12.4 PPR fantasy points per game, which is going to be right around RB24 per game every season. He is in my opinion of the top 20ish running backs or wherever he is the most likely to be a huge bust. Doesn't mean that he will be. But I can't think of anyone who has a better bust case than Chuba Hubbard, you know? Yeah, I can't. So he. I will not be drafting him a lot. He's not my guy. Not my guy.
Dan
Okay.
Jamie
I'm not gonna say he's my guy. What's his ADP? What's our fans only ADP on him.
Dave
On fantasy pros he's RB17. He's going just before Alvin Camara and Joe Mixon.
Jamie
I mean and on our side he's at 54th overall. So that's a round five pick. Absolutely. Smash him in round five.
Dave
Same on Facebook.
Jamie
Seventh inconsistency year. 13th in targets per game, 13th in PPR points per game. I think you pencil them in for 15 PPR points a week and you get yourself a good RB2. Keep in mind that in 2023, you mentioned all those stats and the terrible rushing average. Carolina's offense was miserable. Their offensive line sucked. Bryce Young didn't know what he was doing.
Dan
Right.
Jamie
The coaching staff got replaced entirely after that season. But halfway through the season they got rid of Frank Reich as their head coach. It was a total S show. And now this year, Dave Canal, second season offensive line, much better. We already have a year's worth of evidence from 2024 that Chuba Hubbard is more than capable of being a lead back. The Panthers rewarded him with a big contract. Rico Dowdle doesn't scare me. Trevor ETN doesn't scare me. This dude's gonna get a lot of work. An easy pick in round five.
Dave
All right, Dan, if you can name all 11 fruits that I bought last week without. Without three wrong answers. Okay, I'll give you 15 love in the first. First point. I'll give you the first point of the match.
Jamie
He's gonna have 15 love anyway.
Dan
Yeah, I don't want that. I don't want that. I want to beat you straight up. We'll figure out what you. What I'll get out of this. I can't.
Dave
Another way we could do this is if. Dave, do you want to compete in the name that fruit contest?
Jamie
Sure.
Dave
Okay, so I think what you do is you keep guessing until you get one wrong and then the other person guesses, and you keep going until whoever names that last fruit wins.
Dan
It's a terrible little strategy here.
Dave
Do you want to go first? You want to go second? Like, what do you want to do?
Dan
All right, I'll kick us off.
Dave
Okay.
Dan
I know you got raspberries and blueberries.
Dave
I got berries. I did not get blueberries. Dave, you're up.
Dan
Blueberries was risky. Apple. Yeah, that's easy. Wow.
Dave
I already had apples. I did not buy those.
Dan
Okay. Oranges.
Dave
Correct.
Dan
Okay, so I'm at raspberries, oranges.
Jamie
Is this the end of our podcast?
Dave
Yeah, it is forever.
Jamie
I mean, like, the end of it. Like this. We're never doing another one again. Literally. Guys, naming fruits.
Dave
All right, go ahead, Dan.
Dan
Adam apparently bought 11 of.
Dave
Yeah, you only have two so far.
Dan
Berries. Oranges. Mango.
Dave
Mango is correct. What up?
Dan
Lucky guess. That was. Who buys mangoes? I love mangoes. Mangoes might be the most underrated.
Dave
Will you just guess?
Dan
It's hard. Like, I don't. I'm almost done there. I'm in a lot of ways almost done. Like, I don't want to guess. Pineapple. You didn't get pineapple. It's not a guess. You know, I don't want to guess.
Dave
All right, listen, you get out of time. Dave, you're up.
Jamie
You definitely bought a kiwi.
Dan
Strawberries.
Dave
Strawberries. Correct.
Dan
Yeah, easy one. I forgot immediately. Banana.
Dave
Bananas. Correct.
Dan
All right, how many of my. I've had, like, five now.
Dave
Yeah.
Jamie
How many fruits have we named?
Dan
Is there even six more to name?
Dave
Strawberries, bananas, mango, orange, watermelon, and Raspberries. Watermelon is on the list. Five left. Five left.
Dan
Now don't give me any more Thomas in this. Don't tell me anymore.
Dave
Oh, you cheated.
Dan
I said that was Thomas.
Dave
Dave, your turn again.
Jamie
Plum.
Dan
Nectarines. Everybody loves. Good.
Dave
Yes.
Dan
I did it.
Dave
They were so good.
Dan
They're so underrated. My mom always buys them when I go over the house. I have two at least every session. Oh, so good. Nectarines.
Dave
Yeah.
Dan
What else? I've had, like, some seven. Stop guessing in the comments, Thomas. I'm trying to get these on my own.
Jamie
Stop looking at the comments. Cheater.
Dan
All right, fine. I'll turn them off.
Dave
Yeah, you know what? I'm gonna bring Thomas, and Thomas, you get to play. Thomas, you're up. Dan's out of time. Four fruits, four left.
Adam
Grapes.
Dave
Grapes, correct.
Adam
Pomegranate.
Dave
Dave, you're up.
Jamie
You look like a guy that would be scared of a pomegranate.
Dave
Yeah, I would never eat pomegranate.
Jamie
Honeydew. Cantaloupe.
Dave
Cantaloupe is correct.
Dan
I think Spencer Patterson probably nailed this one. I can't use. I used to be able to pull comments now. Adam.
Dave
No, no, no. Tomato.
Dan
My freedoms. No, he's the type of guy that would call tomatoes the tomato.
Dave
Only two left.
Jamie
Fruit guy.
Dave
Only two left here.
Dan
Are there even two fruits left to name?
Dave
One of them is red, and one of them is kind of is orange.
Dan
Peaches. Nectarine.
Dave
We already said no. No peaches. They both have pits.
Dan
What?
Jamie
You sure you didn't buy a plum? Yeah, cherries. Cherries.
Dan
Yes.
Dave
Cherries.
Dan
What else?
Dave
The last one's really pineapple. Oh, no, it's orange. And it has a pit.
Jamie
And we guessed orange.
Dave
You can or cannot refrigerate it. And they. And they have a dry fruit version of this with the same name.
Jamie
Give me the clue again.
Dave
Okay, I'm out. It's orange. It's a circle. It has a pit. And the dry fruit version has the same name. And the dry fruit version is more common than the.
Dan
Johnny Airport is such a good commenter.
Dave
Yeah, he's great.
Dan
Adam spent 395 on fruit.
Dave
Apricot. Apricot was the last fruit.
Dan
Apricot. Who buys apron? Apricots?
Dave
They're delicious.
Dan
72.
Dave
It's a bit of an old man fruit. I. I get that.
Dan
Old man fruit. Apricot. Yeah.
Dave
All right, thanks for. Thanks for indulging. Thanks for playing, everybody. We'll talk to you on Monday. Have an awesome Fourth of July. We appreciate you. We.
Jamie
Happy birthday, America.
Dave
Yeah. Usa. We Love you, America. We'll talk to you on Monday. See you. Paramount Podcasts, you found your ultimate NFL Draft destination? Get ready for with the First Pick, part of the CBS Sports Podcast Network, join hosts Ryan Wilson and Rand Carthon twice a week for the most insightful draft analysis out there. Over the next several weeks, we're diving deep into the biggest questions facing all 32 NFL teams, scouting the top college prospects ahead of the 202026 NFL Draft and giving you front office insights you won't find anywhere else. Download and follow with the First Pick on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and Anywhere Podcasts are found.
Fantasy Football Today - Episode Summary: Mailbag! Best Advanced Metrics, Player Comps, Consistent Players and More (Released July 3, 2025)
Hosted by Adam Aizer and featuring analysts Dave Richard, Jamey Eisenberg, Heath Cummings, and Dan Schneier, this episode of "Fantasy Football Today" dives deep into listener questions, advanced metrics, player comparisons, and strategies to enhance your fantasy football prowess.
The episode kicks off with a light-hearted discussion about the hosts' Fourth of July plans.
Adam briefly shares his personal plans, emphasizing the importance of relaxation and enjoyment during the holiday.
The core of the episode revolves around advanced metrics and player comparisons, crucial for making informed fantasy football decisions.
Dan [05:19]: Discusses his listener Pete's comparison of quarterbacks JJ McCarthy to Patrick Mahomes and wide receivers Cooper Kupp to Larry Fitzgerald. He breaks down their college performances, draft positions, and potential trajectories in the NFL.
Jamie [06:44]: Critiques the Cooper Kupp and Larry Fitzgerald comparison, highlighting differences in their careers and injury histories. "I don't see Cooper Kupp having the type of rebound to his career that Larry Fitzgerald had."
Dave [07:29]: Prefers the Cooper Kupp and Larry Fitzgerald comparison, noting Fitzgerald's sustained performance in PPR leagues and the evolution of slot receivers like Kupp.
FUD from Eugene, Oregon [12:10]: Asks which metric better predicts fantasy success for wide receivers: yards per route run or target share.
Dave [12:20]: Responds by tweaking the question to "target per route run rate" and analyzes recent metrics. "I'd have to say yards per route run rate is better."
Jamie [12:59]: Emphasizes the importance of context when using advanced metrics. "I like that one personally myself better than yards per route run."
Dan [14:51]: Highlights that volume remains crucial in fantasy football, asserting that "this game is a volume game."
Key Takeaway: Both metrics are valuable, but yards per route run rate may offer more predictive power when evaluating wide receiver performance in fantasy leagues.
The hosts address various listener inquiries, providing expert insights into fantasy football strategies and player evaluations.
Pete's Comparison: JJ McCarthy to Patrick Mahomes and Cooper Kupp to Larry Fitzgerald.
Dan [05:19 - 07:29]: Analyzes the validity of these comparisons, discussing their college stats, draft positions, and potential in the NFL.
Jamie [07:29 - 09:09]: Questions the Cooper Kupp and Larry Fitzgerald comparison due to differing career trajectories and injury impacts.
FUD's Question [12:10]: Which metric is more important for predicting fantasy success: yards per route run or target share?
Dave & Jamie [12:20 - 15:02]: Discuss the nuances of each metric, ultimately leaning towards yards per route run rate while acknowledging the interplay with target per route run rate.
Zach from Quinchon Judkins Fan [17:10]: Advocates for drafting Quinshawn Judkins, citing his consistent performance and potential as a workhorse running back.
Jamie [18:00 - 19:34]: Discusses Judkins' role in the Cleveland offense, comparing him to Caleb Johnson and evaluating his potential impact.
Dan [19:34 - 21:27]: Expresses skepticism about Judkins due to the Cleveland offense's inconsistency and the uncertainty surrounding his role and production.
Matt [25:00]: Asks for the best way to measure player consistency in fantasy football.
Jamie [25:02 - 27:58]: Explains using a baseline (e.g., 22 fantasy points per game for quarterbacks) and calculating the percentage of games a player exceeds this threshold. Highlights the importance of consistency alongside average points per game.
Dan & Dave [27:58 - 29:30]: Debate Lamar Jackson's consistency, noting his fluctuating performance and the implications for fantasy rankings.
David from Toronto, Ontario [38:02]: Inquires about stacking Bijan Robinson (RB) with Drake London (WR) after taking Bijan at the second overall pick.
Jamie [39:09 - 40:55]: Advises against stacking due to past performance of similar stacks, emphasizing the importance of offensive team strength. Suggests diversifying player selections to mitigate risk.
Listener's Email: Questions the strategy of handcuffing wide receivers, such as taking Andre Yoshevis as insurance against T.J. Hockenson's injuries.
Jamie [46:33 - 48:10]: Generally advises against handcuffing wide receivers unless in very deep leagues, citing limited benefits and higher risk.
J. Capalbo's Question [50:44]: Asks about keeper strategy—valuing player retention based on round versus absolute best player selection, considering different league formats.
Jamie [50:44 - 52:21]: Explains that strategies vary based on league rules regarding player retention costs and duration. Advocates for keeping players who offer long-term value and ensuring alignment with league-specific rules.
Dan & Dave [52:21 - 53:26]: Expand on selecting keepers by emphasizing value over round selection, especially in shallower leagues.
The hosts provide in-depth analysis of specific players, utilizing advanced metrics to assess their fantasy value.
Jamie [33:57]: Highlights Bucky's increased target volume and improved role within Tampa's offense, attributing success to coach Liam Cohen's play design.
Dan [34:15 - 35:08]: Discusses the evolution of Tayvon Branch's offensive involvement, emphasizing the need to monitor his snap share and workload.
Dave [66:00 - 67:09]: Criticizes Chuba Hubbard's consistency and potential regression, labeling him as a high bust-risk candidate despite some efficient performances.
Jamie [66:46 - 67:38]: Counters by praising Hubbard's potential in the Panthers' improved offense under new coaching, suggesting he could be a reliable RB2.
In a playful conclusion, the hosts engage in a light-hearted fruit-naming contest based on Adam's grocery purchases.
Note: This segment, while entertaining, is supplementary to the main content and showcases the hosts' personalities.
Dan Schneier [05:19]: "If JJ McCarthy becomes the next Patrick Mahomes, then yes, you can come back, find me and obliterate me anywhere."
Jamie Eisenberg [12:59]: "I like what you did. Changing target share to target per route run."
Jamie [25:00]: "Consistency is something that matters. I think you guys might be interested to know that..."
Dave Richard [27:58]: "What am I buying here? If I'm drafting him on fan on my draft night on Fantasy, I'm buying it back in what I think is a really bad offense that could be really, really bad."
The episode emphasizes the importance of advanced metrics, player consistency, and strategic decision-making in fantasy football. By addressing listener questions and providing expert analysis, the hosts equip fantasy managers with the tools needed to dominate their leagues.
Key Takeaways:
For more in-depth discussions and expert advice, tune into future episodes of "Fantasy Football Today" on CBS Sports.