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Most 2025 Upside; Conference Championship Picks and DFS (01/23 Fantasy Football Podcast)
00:51:27
We debate who has the most upside next season and then we give you some DFS tips and lineups for this weekend
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- [00:00]
Adam
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- [00:34]
Dave
Yeah, sold it to Carvana.
- [00:36]
Adam
Oh, I thought you were selling to that guy.
- [00:39]
Dave
The guy who wanted to pay me in foreign currency. No interest over 36 months. Yeah, no. Carvana gave me an offer in minutes, picked it up and paid me on the spot.
- [00:49]
Jamie
It was so convenient.
- [00:51]
Heath
Just like that.
- [00:52]
Dave
Yeah.
- [00:52]
Adam
No hassle.
- [00:53]
Dave
None.
- [00:54]
Adam
That is super convenient. Sell your car to Carvana and swap hassle for convenience.
- [00:59]
Jamie
Pick up.
- [00:59]
Adam
These may apply.
- [01:00]
Dave
This is fantasy football today from CBS Sports.
- [01:04]
Dan
What a play.
- [01:05]
Heath
Can you believe this? No, I can't.
- [01:08]
Dave
It's time to dominate your fantasy league.
- [01:13]
Heath
This is gonna go the distance. Now here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie and Heath. We are previewing a couple of pretty big this weekend and we are also talking about upside for 2025. Who has the most upside? Drake May, Caleb Williams, Bo Nix. Who has the most upside? Breeze Hall, Alvin Camara or Chuba Hubbard? Chuba Hubbard was actually a top nine running back per game in weeks three through 16. I remember they got off to a terrible start with Bryce Young. Then they benched him. Then Bryce Young came back and he was good. Chuba Hubbard was the number nine running back in fantasy on pace for 306 carries, almost 1700 total yards. Long intro but we got a lot to talk about today. We welcome you to fantasy football Today presented by BetMGM, the sportsbook born in Vegas. And guys, I want to, I don't know, we have to take like the whole show to figure it out. I want to pick both underdogs this week.
- [02:12]
Dan
Why not?
- [02:13]
Heath
I mean a six point road underdog, that's a bold. Like picking the commanders is bold. I just, I think Jalen hurts is. Is Jalen hurt. And I love the way they're playing and I don't love the Eagles offense right now but I think it's all going to come down to one thing that I'll talk about soon. But yeah, I mean and the other one, obviously Bill's Chiefs is kind of a Toss up to me, but Chiefs never lose. How you guys feeling about these games?
- [02:40]
Mike
I. I think I feel the same way you do about Philadelphia. If Jalen hurts isn't right, the doors open for the Commanders to find a way to win. I just, I get a little bit worried about overrating Washington because they scored 14 points off of turnovers last week. Detroit turned the ball over four times. Detroit's defense nowhere near as good as Philadelphia's defense. I kind of lean toward Philadelphia just in general. The only chance, the only chance I think Washington wins is if Jalen hurts is not himself. If that leg injury is much more severe, and we saw it at the end of last season when he wasn't right, that that offense was terrible. That team was terrible. Like they knew they weren't going anywhere.
- [03:23]
Dan
I totally agree. The only difference is they have a pretty significant upgrade in their backfield and that guy can carry them to this game, to this win, you know, so. And also the Cosmi injury with Jalen Carter on the other side there, that. That's a tough one too. So I feel like Washington's luck runs out this week, but I do think they keep close because I think. I don't think Philadelphia's offense is going to run away from them. And yeah, the other, the other game is. Is definitely a toss up. I mean, you know, the Bills already beat the Chiefs once this year, right?
- [03:52]
Heath
That's not a bold prediction. The other one's a little bit bold. So you mentioned the turn. I think it was five turnovers for the Lions. I think off through that interception at the very end there, that is. That is the key, right? And I wanted to talk about turnovers. We'll get to some fan.
- [04:06]
Dan
The key this entire postseason, for every.
- [04:09]
Heath
Game, all the time, you know, it's. You can break it down every which way, but here, just some turnover stats. Patrick Mahomes has thrown eight interceptions in 19 postseason games. He's thrown one interception in his last eight postseason games. Mahomes has three playoff games in his career with two picks, and he's lost two of those three. But this one's wild. Mahomes, I don't know if you can blame the refs for this one. Mahomes has 12 postseason fumbles. He's only lost one of them. So luck has been on his side. Josh Allen's only thrown four picks in 12 postseason games. He's not. He's got nine postseason fumbles and he's lost two of them. But Jalen hurts. I mean, this is why I can't I don't think I can pick. The commander says Jalen hurts. Just doesn't turn the ball over. He'll take a negative play, but he will not throw the ball up for grabs. He has four picks in 12 postseason. Oh, sorry. That was Alan. He has two picks. Yeah, two picks in the playoffs. They were both in his first ever playoff game. So he's gone now six straight playoff games without an interception. I think he's played seven total. So, you know, these veteran quarterbacks, they don't turn the ball over in the playoffs is probably what it's going to come down to. You know, another interesting aspect is, I guess made fun of me last year when I said, you know, that the Chiefs of Harrison Butler, he's such a big advantage. I think I maybe said that going into the. To the super bowl, if I recall. I think Moody missed a couple of field goals for the Niners in the Super Bowl.
- [05:33]
Dan
That never happened.
- [05:34]
Heath
He missed one maybe. These kickers have not been good. These four teams have had kickers who really haven't been that good this year. Bucker's not having a great year. Bass is not that good. Washington's had, what, six kickers this year? Something crazy. And Jake Elliott hasn't had that good of year. So that's just another interesting little wrinkle here. But I'm gonna pick the. You know what? Fine. Let's do it. I'm gonna pick the Chiefs and Eagles. After all that.
- [06:04]
Dan
What the logo is.
- [06:07]
Heath
What the logo is?
- [06:08]
Dan
Yeah, the colors.
- [06:09]
Heath
Oh, yeah. I think I'm just gonna go with the favorites. I have no idea what you're talking about with the colors. I'm just pretending. Oh, yeah, right. Exactly. Yeah.
- [06:19]
Dan
The logo. The logo has predicted the super bowl like three or four years in a row.
- [06:23]
Heath
Which logo?
- [06:24]
Dan
The super bowl logo.
- [06:25]
Heath
Well, I haven't seen.
- [06:27]
Dan
Don't you know this story?
- [06:28]
Heath
No.
- [06:28]
Mike
We talked about this literally each of the last two Super Bowls.
- [06:34]
Heath
Well, I don't remember what we talked about yesterday.
- [06:36]
Dan
You remember. You remember hyping up Harrison Butler, but you don't remember the super bowl logo story?
- [06:42]
Heath
Okay, I'm reading about it now.
- [06:45]
Dan
That's the logo.
- [06:46]
Heath
Yeah. Okay. What are your picks, Chief Seagulls?
- [06:52]
Mike
Eagles. Bills.
- [06:53]
Heath
Eagles. Bills. What are you rooting for? What do you want?
- [06:57]
Dan
Those commanders.
- [06:58]
Heath
Those commanders.
- [07:01]
Mike
I just want to see good games, Dave.
- [07:04]
Heath
As long as the Bears are good, Dave doesn't. Doesn't care. Do you know what. Do you know what an Eagles.
- [07:10]
Dan
I don't think he. I don't think he has Been like so like giddy about like a joke that he was trying to make as he was yesterday.
- [07:16]
Heath
Yeah.
- [07:16]
Dave
He was a Bears fan.
- [07:18]
Heath
Do you know what, what an Eagles commanders NFC championship game is to a, to a Giants fan? This is, this is tough. Yeah.
- [07:26]
Dan
With Saquon Barkley as the star. Sure.
- [07:27]
Heath
I don't mind. I love Saquon. I'm happy. Like I'm rooting for him. I don't care. He's in my fanduel lineup. Which we'll talk about a little bit later. All right, if you haven't signed up yet for BetMGM, let's use that bonus code fantasy. You're gonna get up to a fifteen hundred dollar first bet offer on your first wager with BetMGM. So here's how it works. Download the BetMGM app and sign up using the bonus code Fantasy. Deposit at least $10 and place your first wager on any game and you'll receive up to 1500 dollars in bonus bets if your bet loses. Just make sure that you use the bonus code fantasy when you sign up. All right. Later on in the show we'll be telling you the matchups to watch. You know the Xavier worthy, is he gonna in for a good game? It's kind of tough. You look at the wide receivers in this game, in this slate, A.J. brown's been playing hurt and he's got what, five targets in two games? Just Jalen Hurts is barely throwing, you know, they're just running so much. McLaurin, I don't know, I'll find out. If you guys like him, I'll save that. But obviously he had one terrible game, one great game against the Eagles. Wide receivers a little bit tough, especially if to start three of them. But first, our first topic today is 2025 upside. So I have groups of three players I want to know, I want you to rank them upside, just upside. Our first group, it's at quarterback and it's three of the rookies now. Second year guys, Drake May, Caleb Williams, Bo Nix, Dave, you can start rank them in terms of upside. Drake May, Caleb Williams, Bo Nix, Williams.
- [08:55]
Mike
May, Nicks and I, I, I feel like we've seen the best of Bo Nicks and I guess what I'm especially concerned about with him is what happens in his second season using CJ Stroud as the example. Amazing. Rookie year, second season, looks mortal again. In fact, he looked more like a rookie in his second season than his first season. I think with the changes coming in New England and Chicago, those quarterbacks can be better in their second years. If they're worse, then that's a problem for those franchises. I wonder about what changes does Denver make that will make Bo Nix a better quarterback compared to the changes that defenses will make. That'll make him tougher to. It'll make it harder for him to put up better numbers. So I think Knicks might be viewed as like a safe 20 point fantasy guy that you'll draft late. I think May's gonna have some upside. His receiving core is going to get upgraded and Caleb Williams already we've, we can check off one box. His playbook will be better, his play designs will be better with Ben Johnson and I'm sure Chicago will address their offensive line. They've already got the receivers. We can see Caleb Williams have a very big jump in his second season.
- [10:15]
Heath
All right, Jamie. Same, same question. You rank them in terms of upside. Drake May, Caleb Williams, Bo Nix.
- [10:21]
Dan
I agree with the order. I think in terms of upside that's the right way to go. You know, with Williams, then May, then the Knicks. The one thing that's interesting about Knicks, I think we could also see a potential receiving core upgrade, whether it's another receiver or tight end being brought in. The. The one thing that I think just, you know, to Dave's point is we have a, a new head coach going to Chicago. We have a new head coach obviously, you know, season play caller going to New England to work with a new quarterback. Sean Payne's been through this before where, you know, how does he evolve his offense and evolve his quarterback and so I think that wrinkle helps Bonix not necessarily say stagnant. The nice thing about all three of these guys is they can run, you know, so we, we know that there's potential for all of those guys to have that if things break down, you know, Knicks started off running a little bit more early in the season, then he, you know, kind of went away from it and then he went back to it. So I think depending on what the receiving cores look like for Denver and for New England, that will probably determine how much upside Bonix and Drake may have. Again, I agree with Dave. I think that the Patriots have the biggest jump in, you know, receiving core receivers upgrade, getting upgraded. The Bears are probably going to lose somebody. You know, I mean there's a chance of Keenan Allen, you know, not being back. So that's a, that's a slight downgrade, I think. But you know, just given Ben Johnson being there, Caleb Williams having the most talent of these three, you know, he easily has the Most upside of of.
- [11:43]
Heath
These three quarterbacks, they all can run. You guys mentioned that drake may average 7.8 yards per carry. That is the most yards per carry for a quarterback. A passer rating qualified quarterback. All right, so one who played enough since 2011 when Michael Vick and Christian Ponder both averaged 7.8 yards per carry. So Drake May's yards per carry, how.
- [12:07]
Dan
Much of it was that first half against the jets before he got concussed?
- [12:11]
Heath
I mean, it was the whole year. That was only like three carries, I think for 50 something yards or whatever. But I don't know. I'm just going. That's off the top of my head. I don't know. But.
- [12:19]
Dan
But I thought he had 90 in the first half. It wasn't a huge day in the.
- [12:24]
Heath
Game that he left early.
- [12:26]
Dan
He left at halftime.
- [12:28]
Heath
Let me tell you right now, he played like 30% of the snap. He had 46 rushing yards and a touchdown and six pass attempts in week eight. Yeah, no, it was the whole year. So that's going to come down. Also, I'm just looking now over the last 10 years, 31 rookie quarterbacks who are. I don't know what the criteria is. They're passer rating qualified or whatever. True media is sorting this. Drake May 26th in interception rate. The only players who have had a higher interception rate than Drake May as rookies. Josh Rosen, Sam Darnold, Justin Fields, Josh Allen and Deshaun Kaiser.
- [13:09]
Dan
Wow. So in, in like six years. Drake May is going to be awesome when he gets with Kevin O'Connell.
- [13:15]
Heath
Or he could be Josh Allen. No, I mean, Drake May is really interesting. People are completely overlooking the interceptions. And I don't know that we should because it was kind of a problem for him in college too. Made a lot of risky throws. All right, Anthony Richardson, Justin Herbert, C.J. stroud. That's our next group of quarterbacks. Anthony Richardson, Justin Herbert and C.J. stroud. It's pretty easy to rank Richardson last. Well, I don't know, maybe you even put him ahead of his first. No, no, no. I meant overall.
- [13:44]
Dan
Oh, yeah.
- [13:45]
Heath
If you just do upside. This guy scored 22 or more fantasy points in three of his last five games. And. Yeah, what's. What are your thoughts? Go ahead. You can start. Jamie Richardson, Herbert Stroud.
- [13:57]
Dan
I mean, we've, we've seen the upside, really, for all three guys. You know, small sample size for Richardson, but I think if he ever gets it, you know, with his ability to run, he could be a top five fantasy quarterback. But that's A huge ask at this point just based on what he's looked like as a passer. Herbert's obviously done it in his career already and Stroud did it as a rookie. So there's potential for both of those guys. But just based on what we saw the, in the 2024 campaign, I'll say Richardson, Herbert, Stroud. In terms of upside right now, it's.
- [14:24]
Mike
Hard to say Richardson's one though because all of his, he, he has four. I think he has like four career games. Maybe it was just four games last year with 20 plus and he had a rushing touchdown in each of them. I don't remember how many that he had as a rookie but he's got multiple passing touchdowns in three of 12 career games where he's played at least 90% of the snaps. 230 or more yards in one of those 12 games. He's got to be a better thrower. I love that we're already hearing about him getting with a coach and learning how to be a better thrower. Indy, why didn't you do this like the day you drafted him? That's my question to the Colts organization. But if he does become a better thrower, then his upside is awesome. But we have seen from Herbert as a rookie, as a second year player for part of his third year and then for the tail end of last year, upside to average 25 fantasy points per game. And so I, I still, I think I would rather trust that than fingers crossed that Anthony Richardson becomes a better thrower and stays healthy. And the offense is designed around him passing just as much as it is him rushing. Makes me a little bit nervous. Will there be more Smash games for Richardson if it all works in his favor? Hell yeah, way more. But I just, I feel like the guy I'm drafting first is going to be Herbert. And the one that has the most upside just for like 25 on a semi consistent basis, give me Herbert over Richardson.
- [15:54]
Heath
Okay. And the last eight, last 11 games for Justin Herbert, he was a top 12 quarterback back end like 10, almost.
- [16:04]
Mike
23 points per game.
- [16:05]
Heath
Yeah. 10th per game and four point. 11th per game and six point. He averaged 31 pass attempts per game, which isn't great a lot though I think compared to what he was doing before that. And yeah, he was good but that's.
- [16:20]
Dan
What you should expect next year. They're not going to open things up dramatically, right?
- [16:24]
Mike
Depends on who their running back is.
- [16:27]
Heath
All right.
- [16:27]
Dan
I don't think it's going to be worse than what it was this year.
- [16:29]
Mike
I would hope that they would address it. But if they address it in a major way, that's when I could say, all right, maybe we should pump the brakes on the upside for Herbert.
- [16:39]
Heath
Okay, let's take a break, come back and do this with some running backs and wide receivers. Talk more upside after this. On fantasy football today, Where'd you get those shoes?
- [16:48]
Adam
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- [17:17]
Dave
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- [18:04]
Heath
All right, welcome back. Here we go. By the way, to join our Facebook group, it's a really good way to chat with people during the off season about your dynasty, questions about upcoming drafts, whatever it is. Just want to chat about fantasy football. Let's go to Facebook and search for fantasy football today. At running back, who has the most upside out of this trio? Rank them. Dave Breeze Hall, Alvin Camara, Chuba Hubbard.
- [18:27]
Mike
Wow. I will. I'll say Breeze first. Gosh, it's all, it's definitely format dependent, but I'll say Breeze first. And I think I'll lean Chuba over Camara. I hate giving up on Camara, though. I mean, he had more fantasy points per game in PPR than both those guys last year.
- [18:50]
Heath
Yes, he did.
- [18:51]
Mike
So it's, it's, it's totally based on. All right. Alvin Camara is going to be 30 this coming season, Saints are going to probably bring in somebody or really hope that Kendra Miller gets it and stays healthy to help shoulder that workload. Still don't know who that coach is going to be. Still don't know who the offensive coordinator is going to be. I. I feel like there's a lot that could go really wrong for Camara, which is why I'm going to put him third. I think Chuba will be the main running back again this coming year for Carolina, so he'll be second. And I still believe in Breece Hall. And Breeze is the youngest of the three by. By a wide margin.
- [19:28]
Heath
Okay, remember, this is just upside. We're just doing upside here. Yeah.
- [19:32]
Mike
Breeze, hall has a chance to still be a top five fantasy running back.
- [19:36]
Heath
Okay, so you go.
- [19:37]
Mike
And I know Camara was Camara top.
- [19:39]
Heath
Five in ppr, fifth per game.
- [19:41]
Mike
Right.
- [19:41]
Heath
So two years in a row got.
- [19:43]
Mike
That same type of upside, too. But he's got to be able. He. I know he led running backs and targets on a per game basis. Like, he's got to be able to do that and still score a lot of touchdowns. Does he have all those opportunities? I don't know.
- [19:55]
Heath
Okay, so Dave goes, Breece Hall, Chuba Hubbard, Alvin Camara, Jamie, Same order. Oh, okay. Hubbard. Yeah. I did want to just bring up how good he was, but he averaged 4.8 yards per carry last year. He averaged 3.8. They certainly made some big additions on the offensive line over the off season. So you figured that probably helped and coach. Yeah, right. Everything was better. And the quarterback play was better, too. He was overall number 13 per game. But in those last 13 games for him or 14. Yeah, 13 games. I think he was number nine per game. So. All right, next up we've got DeAndre Swift, Rico Dowdle, and Tyrone Tracy Jr. DeAndre Swift, Rico Dowdleen, Tyrone Tracy Jr. Jamie, who has the most upside ranked those three?
- [20:41]
Dan
I think just given the coaching change, I'm going to go swift first, you know, because if things hit for him in Ben Johnson's offense, knowing that right now his competition is Roshan Johnson, who's had a hard time staying healthy and, you know, who knows what the coaching staff will think of him. So I'll go swift. One is Tracy and who? Dowdle. Yeah. Tracy will be two and Dowdle will be three. I don't know where Dowdle's playing next year. So that's a big part of this. So if he returns to the Cowboys, depending on who the coach is there, you know, you figure that they're going to have an upgrade or competition at least for that backfield, knowing how Jerry Jones feels about running backs. So Dowdle will definitely be third.
- [21:21]
Heath
Okay, Dave. So Jamie's going Swift, Tracy, Dowdle.
- [21:25]
Mike
I want to put Tracy first and so I'll do it in pencil. I'll put Tracy first in pencil because I think. I think he'll be the one a running back for the Giants next year. Giants, they just drafted Tracy. Devin Singletary, if they cut them, they, they sink a ton of money on the cap. So I think Singletary will be back. The coach that drafted Tracy and signed Singletary is still there. And Brian Dable. For now, I'm going to assume that that's their backfield tandem for 2025. As good or bad as it is, at least Tracy averaged 13.1 PPR points per game from week five on. That's better than what Swift did over the course of the 2024 season and not far off from what Swift did in 2022 with Detroit. 13.7 PPR points per game. That was with Ben Johnson calling the shots. I think there's a little bit more uncertainty with Swift in Chicago moving forward.
- [22:26]
Heath
I think with Swift, one of the uncertainties is who's the goal line back. It's 31 of his team's carries from inside the five yard line. It was Roshan Johnson was getting those and you know, not always that's really going to cap his upside if he can't score enough touchdowns.
- [22:45]
Dan
Certainly did in Philly.
- [22:47]
Heath
Absolutely.
- [22:48]
Mike
But I should go look right now to see what happened in 2022. Did they trust him down there? Did they pull him for Jamal? Didn't I? I think they almost certainly pulled him for Jamal.
- [22:56]
Heath
Right? They did.
- [22:56]
Mike
Y have like 18 touchdowns.
- [22:59]
Dan
17.
- [23:00]
Mike
He's been a short yard Montgomery before David Montgomery.
- [23:04]
Heath
That's always been. That's been an issue for Swift. He's not been a good short yardage back. He's a guy who, who averaged 3.8 yards per carry when usually, you know, he's much, much better. There was that because, you know, he's played behind pretty good offensive lines pretty much his whole career. Did not necessarily do that this year, but yeah, I don't know what does Swift have? So that 42 catches in 17 games was that change of Keenan Allen comes back. It's an interesting one. Dowdle, Dowdle. The only case I would make for him is that they just rode him. He was on pace for 345 carries in the last seven games of the season. He had the third most carries in the NFL and just their undisputed guy. So I guess there's a scenario where they don't really upgrade at running back. They don't really have cap space to do.
- [23:46]
Dan
Well, he's. He's a free agent.
- [23:47]
Heath
Yeah. Right. If they bring him back. Right. If they bring him back.
- [23:49]
Dan
So just, again, we're talking upside here. So if we're drafting today, I'm taking Tracy first. If we're just talking about who's got the chance to be the best of this trio, which, I mean, that's why I've been approaching this exercise.
- [24:00]
Heath
Yeah.
- [24:01]
Dan
Yeah. If Swift hits in Ben Johnson's offense, he could be a superstar. Like, I don't see that for these other two guys. Like, I think Tracy, what you saw last year, given the fact that it's going to be most likely a rookie quarterback, or let's just say it's a decrepit Kirk Cousins. You know, I don't know if that environment makes things better for him.
- [24:24]
Heath
Okay, let's go.
- [24:25]
Mike
20, 22. 20, 22. DeAndre Swift had four carries inside the five, two touchdowns. Jamal Williams, 33 carries inside the five, 14 rushing touchdowns. That was with Big Bed Johnson calling the plays in Motown.
- [24:42]
Heath
All right, let's go to wide receiver now. We're going Ohio State in honor of the. I can't even say it out loud. You know, what they did on Monday, Good for them. Rank these guys with upside. Marvin Harrison Jr. Jackson, Smith and Jigba. Garrett Wilson. Dave, you can go first.
- [24:58]
Mike
I love all these guys, and they're all very talented. I'm going to take JSN based on how last season ended, the optimism that the Seahawks will get it right with their new offensive coordinator and that JSN will lead the team and targets by a hefty margin. We saw it last year. It was from week eight on. Once DK Metcalf got hurt, JSN averaged 19 PPR points per game. That's. That's hitting his upside. Garrett Wilson hasn't really come close to that in his career. And even if he's the number one guy for whoever the quarterback is in New York, I. I don't see him getting that high. And Marvin Harrison, I. I want to say that we're going to see him thrive in the second season. Doesn't look like the Cardinals are changing their personnel or at least their coaching staff. On offense, will they make the appropriate changes to make Marvin Harrison a superstar? I'm skeptical. And if they do, it's going to hurt Trey McBride. If they don't, then they're acknowledging that Trey McBride is their number one guy and that Marvin Harrison's more of like a 1B as far as, like the passing offense in general goes. So give me JSN first, give me G Dub second, and Marvin Harrison Jr who we all love last year, myself included, bringing up the rear.
- [26:16]
Heath
I just want to say, you know, you mentioned what JSN averaged. You want to give that number again?
- [26:21]
Mike
Once Metcalf 19 PPR points per game from week eight through it's through week 17. I should have mentioned that because week 18, he didn't do anything. Well, I'm not good. It's 14.9.
- [26:32]
Heath
I mean, I'm not gonna just take away week 18. He had a bad game against Rams backups. But I'm. I am going to take away weeks eight and nine because Metcalf didn't play in those games. If you just want to know what, what Jackson, Smith and Jigba did, once Metcalf came back, he averaged 15.9 PPR fantasy points per game. He was around wide receiver, 20 per game. It's good. But he had a 39 point game without DK Metcalf, a 37 point game against the Rams in week nine, 13 points against the Bills in week eight. So I just wanted to take those games away I thought would be better. And I don't know, they didn't. They didn't really have a great passing offense down the stretch last year. I feel like they weren't throwing the ball that much.
- [27:14]
Mike
But what if I told you that the Seahawks could save 18 million bucks against the cap?
- [27:21]
Heath
I know it's worth mentioning, but I just, I don't know, for the sake of this exercise, probably should do it. With Metcalf on the team, they could definitely move on from him. It's like every off season we hear about them maybe trading him. All right, so I'm sorry you went JSN, Garrett Wilson, Marvin Harrison Jr. And Jamie. How would you rank those three?
- [27:38]
Dan
Just in terms of upside. And, and I agree with Dave's sentiment. I love all three of these guys, but it would be Marvin Harrison 1, Garrett Wilson 2, JSN 3.
- [27:47]
Heath
How are you treating the Devonte Adams situation as you consider Garrett Wilson's upside?
- [27:54]
Dan
I. I'm not expecting him back.
- [27:57]
Heath
Dave, what about.
- [27:59]
Mike
Okay, so they save a ton on the cap if they cut.
- [28:03]
Dan
Yeah, and you know, it. It's a toss up for me between Harrison and Wilson because I, I hope the jets get their quarterback situation right and Realize what a talent that Wilson could be. You know, it hasn't really materialized over the course of a season yet, whether due to poor quarterback play, inconsistent performances from him, obviously the addition of Devonte Adams. But if Marvin Harrison hits, based on his pedigree, he could be a superstar. Big if. But again, you know, that's what we're looking at here. We're talking about, can he reach his ceiling? And his ceiling should be better than these two guys.
- [28:34]
Heath
How do you feel about that, Dave? Do you still think of that way of Marvin Harrison Jr.
- [28:39]
Mike
I didn't see much speed from him last year, and that's kind of an important trait to have if you're going to play wide receiver in the NFL.
- [28:48]
Heath
That's so weird. There have been a lot of good receivers. I remember when trailing Burks came out, he's not a great example, but when trailing Burks came out, he ran a really slow 40, like in the four sixes or something. And then there was this whole list of these wide receivers who ran slow 40s and ended up being really good. I remember a lot of them started with the letter D. Demarius Thomas and DEZ Bryant were two that I remember. So it's not. It's not the only thing that matters. But, yeah, I mean, it's just. A lot of people just kind of felt that way about Marvin Harrison. Like this. This guy. But I think he just does other things well. Right. He's really good at contested catches. We didn't like the way they used him. Hardly any easy catches near the line of scrimmage.
- [29:27]
Dan
Everything downfield, same rookie numbers as a dead. Almost identical.
- [29:32]
Heath
Yeah, it's funny. Yeah. Okay. All right, so I like the difference of opinion there. All right, let's go. Last one here. Jerry, Judy Zay, Flowers, Xavier Worthy, who has the most upside? And for sake of argument here, let's say Rasheed Rice is ready for week one. Jerry, Judy Zay, Flowers, Xavier Worthy. Jamie, who has the most upside? Rank those.
- [29:56]
Dan
Well, I mean, if we're. If we're doing hypotheticals, then who's the quarterback for the Browns?
- [30:00]
Heath
A rookie.
- [30:01]
Dan
A rookie. Okay, so just not desean Watson, which is not gonna.
- [30:04]
Heath
Oh, it's definitely not gonna be him. Yeah.
- [30:06]
Dan
So it's not Jameson.
- [30:08]
Heath
I mean, that's. It could be Jameson. It could be James.
- [30:11]
Mike
What if it's. What if it's decrepit Kirk Cousins?
- [30:15]
Dan
I guess as long as it's not desean Watson, which is going to be the case. So upside, I say Judy won Worthy two, flowers three Dave.
- [30:29]
Mike
I might flip Flowers and Worthy and I don't mean it to slight Worthy, but let's be real. They're, they're going to be. It's going to be a better and healthier receiving core in Kansas City. It's just a matter of how many games will Rashid Rice play? Is there a suspension coming? Could that get Worthy off to a red hot start? Does he play so well early on next year that he doesn't really lose his role? So a lot of questions there. But I, I think the fun thing about it is Jerry Judy could be first on this list and he might be the third one on draft day that goes off the board.
- [31:05]
Heath
Yeah, he's an interesting one. Incredible end of the season. So what if it's okay now I'm going to give you Shadur Sanders as his quarterback. Does that change the order of upside between Judy Flowers and Worthy?
- [31:21]
Dan
Then I would go Worthy, Judy Flowers, I think. You know, so the scenario Dave brought up with the Chiefs, barring something really significant changing in Baltimore and I don't know if it, if, if the change is necessarily better for Flowers unless it's just Mark Andrews leaves. But it, you know, they, they sort of killed that storyline yesterday with everything that they said that he's still their guy. I don't think things get necessarily better from an environment standpoint. You know, the, his role will be the same. We'll have some spike weeks, he'll have some games where he disappears last. Some games, you know, assuming that Derek Henry is back and where they just don't throw as much and Lamar Jackson is just efficient and gets his numbers that way. Worthy is, there's a little bit of Tyree kill there, you know, in this offense because the speed is there, the creativity and how they used him was there, you know, down the stretch. Yes, Rice being back will be a huge, huge, I don't want to say huge. It'll be a negative. But Kelsey may be gone, you know, and that may change some things. And so I think the one thing that we could see with the Chiefs, which we really haven't seen, you know, you can make the case, okay, Peak Tyree Kill, what they have from Sammy Watkins and Pete Kelsey, like this may be their fastest receiving core depending on who the third guy is because Brown's a free agent as well, you know, so Marquis Brown, so we'll see what, what happens there. But like Andy Reid with speed is just lethal. Mahomes with speed is lethal. And Worthy is showing that he's not just a speed guy. You know, that was the story coming out of the draft, you know, that he's more than just a speed guy. And you saw it the last three games of the regular season or the last three games they played in the regular season. They didn't play Week 18. He had 31 targets over that span. You know, they were, you know, still giving him. I think he had 10 carries over that span. You know, so they're finding ways to put the ball in his hand. And again, no Rice there. And Kelsey was still being, you know, somewhat managed. Not the greatest playoff debut, but still second on the team and targets behind. Kelsey had five catches, you know, just didn't do a lot with it. It just feels like he's on the cusp of a huge potential breakout. Rice there, not Rice there.
- [33:30]
Heath
Okay. All right, well, we're going to talk about Xavier Worthy in just a little bit and see if we want to throw him in our DFS lineups. Anything else here? Yeah, let's just run through the news and notes real quick. The jets hired Aaron Glenn, Lions defensive coordinator, a former Jet, to be their head coach. The Bengals hired Al golden as their new defensive coordinator. He was.
- [33:51]
Mike
Feel about that one, Adam.
- [33:53]
Heath
I have no issue with Al Golden. You know, it's. He tried his best. He, he, he was dealt a bad hand. Al golden was a former Miami Hurricanes head coach, and he showed up and then like, bam. Almost immediately, as I recall. It's been a while. The Nevin Shapiro Yahoo story came out, and that was a pretty tough circumstance to work to work through. One thing I'll say about Al golden, he did beat the Florida Gators in Miami. So, so that was good. Good for him. I think he beat Oklahoma, beat Ohio State, maybe. Yeah. And like, they're one bad year. Jacksonville. Oh, this is so interesting. Jacksonville gets turned down by Liam Cohen and then they fire their GM Trent Balky, not long after.
- [34:37]
Dan
So stupid.
- [34:38]
Heath
And then maybe see if there's. They can make another run at Liam Cohen. I know he's getting a raise.
- [34:44]
Dan
No Liam Cohen staying in Tampa Bay. I think the thing that you're. You might see, which is frustrating for Trevor Lawrence in the offense, is Robert Sala as that coach. There was some talk of maybe. I think Jacksonville's dream scenario was Ben Johnson, head coach Robert Sala, defense coordinator. And now it looked, it looked. It's looking like maybe Salah could be the head coach there.
- [35:05]
Heath
And for some weekend updates, not the SNL version, Philadelphia center Cam Juergens missed practice. A.J. brown says he's feeling better. Philadelphia cornerback Quinnian Mitchell was limited and Dallas Goddard missed practice. I think. I mean, I think everyone's going to play for Philadelphia, I believe maybe not.
- [35:23]
Dan
They had a walkthrough, so it was just estimated practice reports the two injuries.
- [35:28]
Heath
That don't look great right now are those two defensive backs, Taylor Rapp and Christian Benford for the Bills. So again, that's another reason why I'm picking the Chiefs. I don't know if those guys are going to play, but we'll talk more about dfs, who we like, who we don't like when we come back on Fantasy Football today.
- [35:46]
Adam
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- [36:17]
Jamie
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- [36:46]
Heath
Alright, it's tough to set those lineups with only two games, but let's try anyway. Who are the must have players? Who do you guys love this week?
- [36:54]
Mike
When I set my lineup, the first name I put in was Saquon Barkley. And I know that I. I would imagine a lot of people will do that, but I just, I can't resist the matchup. Commander's run defense has been bad past five games, 4.9 yards per carry, seven rushing touchdowns allowed. They're just that, they haven't been great and Saquon has smoked them both times, so might be Chalky and he's definitely expensive, but he was the very first name that I put into my lineup there.
- [37:25]
Dan
There are three must plays for me. Barkley is one, Kelsey is the other, and Josh Allen is the third and figure out the rest.
- [37:35]
Heath
We're going to have the same lineups.
- [37:37]
Dan
I feel like everybody's gonna have this.
- [37:38]
Mike
Everybody's gonna have the same.
- [37:39]
Dan
You have to hit on a Curtis Samuel. You have to hit on a, you know, like we saw last week, like Brian Robinson scoring, you know, two touchdowns and nobody playing him. Kareem Hunt scoring two touchdowns. Like one of those Typ. Ty Johnson goes for, you know, a 60 yard touchdown catch from, from Josh. That, that's going to be how you win something like this, you know, or you just go nuts and you say I'm like Kenny Pickett.
- [38:03]
Heath
Well, I, I think you know which, which quarterback. Let's start. Start with the quarterback. You guys are going to start. Josh Allen. Josh Allen is my fanduel quarterback.
- [38:13]
Dan
To me there, there are three quarterbacks I would not play Jalen Hurts.
- [38:17]
Heath
Yeah, I agree, but does that mean that you should play Jalen Hurts? You know what I mean?
- [38:21]
Mike
Right?
- [38:21]
Dan
Look, there's going to be. Everybody's gonna have a million different lineup combinations. Hertz is going to get played a lot. But if you're ranking them, you know, just based on health and recent performances, like how would you trust Jalen Hurts?
- [38:33]
Mike
Why would you trust Jalen Hurts? When you could start Mahomes for 500 less? The only reason would be to be contrarian and to hope that the leg injury isn't that bad. Yep.
- [38:43]
Heath
So Buffalo and Kansas City have played three times in the playoffs. Kansas City's won all three games in the 2020 season. 2021 playoffs. 2020 season, they won 38, 24 at home. Next year, 2021 season, they won 42 36. That was the crazy game in Kansas City. And in the 2023 season, they won in Buffalo 27 24. Josh Allen scored 30 or more fantasy points and six point per passing touchdown leagues in all three games. Patrick Mahomes did that in two of three games. Mahomes has had a passer rating of 123.1 or better in all three games against Buffalo. And it also just in the playoffs and it also just seems like he starts to run more in the playoffs. He will do whatever it takes. So I was tempted to put him in there. But you know, at the end of the day, he just hasn't really had that great of a year. And he didn't really have. He had a bad fantasy game last week even though he made an incredible. We never talked about that throw. Holy cow. That throw.
- [39:47]
Dan
Same throw Joe Burrow had to.
- [39:49]
Heath
Who?
- [39:51]
Dan
Burrow did it to T. Higgins like two weeks prior against Pittsburgh, I think.
- [39:56]
Heath
Did you guys notice how windy it was? You know why it was so windy in the stadium, by the way, because there were so many fans.
- [40:04]
Dan
Nice.
- [40:05]
Heath
Thank you. I heard that dad joke over the weekend on Sunday and I kept meaning to say it on the show and I kept forgetting, so. And I forgot again. But I was gonna leave the show with it, but luckily it just came up organically.
- [40:19]
Mike
Do you have a weather report for what's expected this weekend?
- [40:23]
Heath
I don't think. No, I don't, but I don't think it's. I think it's just gonna be cold.
- [40:27]
Mike
See what Kevin Roth says.
- [40:28]
Heath
Yeah, they're both Florida.
- [40:29]
Dan
How about that?
- [40:30]
Heath
I'm going to be that cold for Washington, Philadelphia, low 40s, Buffalo, Kansas City. Temperatures around freezings, but freezing light winds. This is at rotogrinders.com/weather/NFL. So I'm not concerned about weather here. All right, so quarterback, don't start. Jalen Hurts is basically what we're saying. Running back, do you. Do you feel like you have to pay up for Barkley, Dave? You obviously do.
- [40:55]
Dan
I do. I mean, you know, it's so the one FanDuel lineup that I did so far was Barkley and James Cook, and the first version that I had was Barkley and Eckler. I mean, the second running back is no guarantee. You know, Chiefs run defense obviously is good, but they gave up the two touchdowns to Cook the first time that they played Robinson. I don't want to trust that.
- [41:18]
Heath
We both had. I had Eckler too, so just we gotta have the same lineups. And yeah, I was also find the.
- [41:25]
Mike
Wide receivers to trust at a discount. Going with Barkley and Cook as safe plays with huge upside makes a ton of sense. And that's what I'm doing on DraftKings.
- [41:36]
Heath
I think two, two players that I have the most questions about are James Cook. For most of the season, the Chiefs had a great run defense. It has not been that great lately. James Cook did score twice against them, but he did not have a good game. He was not efficient last week. He didn't get the touchdown, but he usually gets touchdowns. So it's him and it's McLaurin. You know, how much do you trust him? He's pretty expensive, but I don't think people are going to pay up for A.J. brown after what we've seen. McLaurin is, you know, the high end guy that I think people are going to trust the most. So who do you guys trust more, James cook or Terry McLaurin right now?
- [42:14]
Dan
James Cook.
- [42:15]
Mike
Why not both?
- [42:16]
Heath
Oh, okay.
- [42:18]
Mike
I'm gonna roll with both. Easier to do that on DraftKings because you get the full point for each catch. If I had to pick one, I think McLaurin probably has the better game script. Tougher matchup, but the better game script to expect good numbers.
- [42:36]
Heath
The Bills did run pretty successfully the last two weeks, kind of overall against two great run defenses a lot as Josh Allen, though Cook obviously was very good against Denver, wasn't as good last week against the Ravens. So I didn't actually, I, I forgot I have both James Cook and Austin Eckler and Saquon Barkley in my fanduel lineup. I have Cook at flex. I don't know why I shied away from McLaren. I think I just couldn't really afford him. It's tough. Like, if you put Barkley and Josh Allen in your lineup, you know, that's tough. You might.
- [43:08]
Dan
Oh, try doing it with Kelsey, too.
- [43:10]
Heath
Oh, oh, I did. Yeah, I did.
- [43:13]
Dan
I, I, I kind of went cheap at receiver just because I think this, this, it's funny because, like, you could see great game from Daniels. You can see great game for Alan, great game for Homes. And that really doesn't have to be because of. It even hurts great because of a receiver.
- [43:29]
Heath
You know what, let's, let's go ahead and reveal our lineups then, because Jamie, let's compare our fanduel lineups. I have a feeling they're quite similar. Go ahead.
- [43:36]
Dan
So I have Josh Allen at quarterback, Saquon Barkley and James Cook at running back. I have Khalil Shakir, Xavier Worthy and Damie Brown at receiver, Kelsey, a tight end, Ertz at flex, and the Commander's defense.
- [43:50]
Heath
We have the same exact lineup, except I have Eckler, Flex and you have Earth's.
- [43:56]
Dan
Yep.
- [43:57]
Heath
That's awful. We're like, it's just.
- [44:00]
Dan
But this is what almost everybody's dealing with. You know, it's. You got to have something that sets yourself apart because there's going to be so many of the same combinations.
- [44:06]
Heath
All right, I'm going to make a new lineup that I'm going to keep this one, but I'm going to make a new one that's like just completely different. So Allen, Barkley, Cook, Worthy, Shakir, Diami Brown, Travis Kelce, Austin Eckler, Commander's dst. Go ahead.
- [44:21]
Mike
And I make a suggestion.
- [44:23]
Dan
I was going to go as Zakus with another revenge game factor, but he's banged up.
- [44:28]
Mike
Yeah. Let me make a suggestion. I don't know if we have time for them. Could each of us make a unique Lineup with, like, one. One specification. Like, one of us makes a lineup with Hertz as the quarterback. One of us makes a lineup. You gotta go super cheap at running back. Like, three contrarian lineups. Because if you're gonna make a new lineup, I think I could give mine, which isn't that far off from you, and then we could each try and make a unique lineup to give an idea a taste of what it would be like to have something contrarian for DFS this week.
- [45:02]
Heath
Yeah, sure.
- [45:03]
Mike
All right, so why don't I give my lineup? Like, if. If we're signing. Like, does someone want to make a lineup without Barkley, Cook, or Eckler?
- [45:16]
Heath
No, it's a challenge. That's too. No, I. I don't see how I. Which two running backs would I start? I mean, Brian Robinson. I'm fine starting Brian Robinson.
- [45:26]
Mike
I'm not starting one of the Bills stiffs.
- [45:28]
Heath
No, I'm not willing to do that.
- [45:32]
Mike
Even just as an exercise. I'm not saying you have to put $25 on it.
- [45:36]
Heath
I don't want to do something that I think is going to lose.
- [45:41]
Mike
Okay.
- [45:41]
Dan
You have to have anchors. I mean, it's just, you know.
- [45:44]
Mike
Okay, so you have to pick a hail Mary run back and Kelsey are.
- [45:49]
Dan
Going to be the two most popular players.
- [45:51]
Mike
Right. So how about just doing a lineup without those two guys? Can you do that?
- [45:56]
Dan
So I. I don't have the pricing in front of me, but I would go Jaden Daniels, Eckler and Kareem Hunt, then McLaren.
- [46:13]
Mike
All right, I'll do the lineup that.
- [46:14]
Dan
Adam, Lauren, Devonte Smith and Marquis, Brown, Goddard, Ertz, Flex and pick a defense.
- [46:27]
Heath
I missed that. Dave, go ahead. What are you doing?
- [46:30]
Mike
I'm building a lineup without Saquon, Cook, or Eckler.
- [46:36]
Heath
Okay.
- [46:37]
Dan
You know, why don't you do this for express?
- [46:40]
Mike
We could.
- [46:41]
Heath
Yeah, done.
- [46:45]
Mike
Unfortunately, I erased my original lineup, but it was like it was with my homes. I had Barkley, Cook, Kelsey, and a bunch of cheap receivers along with McLaurin.
- [46:55]
Dan
I'll have two lineups written on the site so you can see. What? One on Fandom, one on DraftKings.
- [46:59]
Mike
Okay, cool.
- [47:01]
Heath
Okay. I have a new lineup, and Dalton Kincaid is going to be in it. So It's Mahomes, Barkley, $3 on fire. Mahomes, Barkley, Robinson at running back, Worthy, McLaurin, Diami Brown, Kelsey. I like this. Kelsey at tight end, Dalton Kincaid at flex, and the Chiefs dst. I like that lineup. Okay. Did we want to give anyone?
- [47:26]
Dan
Hopefully doesn't.
- [47:27]
Heath
I mean, you Know, it's the Chiefs. They struggle with tight ends at times.
- [47:31]
Dan
Dawson Knox for the win, probably.
- [47:35]
Heath
Anything else, guys? Okay, great.
- [47:39]
Mike
Nope.
- [47:40]
Heath
Enjoy the games. What are you gonna. You guys gonna get together with people?
- [47:44]
Dan
No, I might be with Heath, depending on how our basketball team does.
- [47:48]
Heath
Oh, what's at stake for basketball?
- [47:51]
Dan
Oh, they have a tournament, so Sunday is usually elimination day. So if they do well Saturday, we'll determine what time we play on Sunday. Heath was. Heath was scrimmaging with the kids yesterday. He was. He was killing him.
- [48:06]
Heath
Yeah.
- [48:07]
Mike
Wow.
- [48:08]
Dan
He. He took, I think one shot, but he was just distributing and rebounding and running out of breath. It was pretty funny. At one point, he passed the ball in and he said to. And mind you, these are 12, maybe a couple 13 year olds. He says to the kid, bring out the ball. He goes, walk it up the court. And then we made eye contact and I just lost it.
- [48:37]
Heath
So if you win Saturday, what time do you play Sunday?
- [48:39]
Dan
We don't know. So we. We were.02 on Saturday last weekend and we had the 9 o'clock game in the morning, which is when the crappy teams play. And if we win, we play later in the day so that you just have, you know, to win one, then you get the championship.
- [48:52]
Heath
Okay, but you'll be home in time for the games?
- [48:54]
Dan
Depends. I don't know.
- [48:55]
Heath
It's three. Three o'clock game.
- [48:57]
Dan
He missed. I mean, this is his dedication to being a coach. He missed the first half of Chiefs Texans last week.
- [49:02]
Heath
Yeah, that's why I'm not going to coach ever.
- [49:05]
Dan
Oh, yeah, that's why.
- [49:08]
Heath
All right. All right, everybody. We will talk to you all on Monday. Enjoy your weekend, enjoy the games, and we'll see who's in the Super Bowl. For Dave and Jamie, I'm Adam. Have a good one. Talk to you on Monday.
- [49:27]
Dave
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