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NFL DFS Championship Weekend: Main Slate Lineups, Picks, Stacks and Ownership (FFT DFS)
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- [00:00]
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- [00:47]
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- [02:10]
Mike McClure
What's up, everybody? Welcome to Fantasy Football Today, DFS. We've only got three more games. We got four more teams. We've got Make Shop, we've got Mike McClure. Meg, I'm always feeling, and I've said this before, a little sad. It feels like, you know, we've entered the weekend, but it's, it's the Sunday, it's the late early evening Sunday and. And Monday's right around the corner because football season's about to end. How you feeling?
- [02:34]
Meg Shop
Yeah, I. We talk about this the last few weeks. I, I hate the end of football season. Football girl year round. But, you know, it'll be a fun end of the football season and, you know, then I'll just get back in the best ball streets to cope.
- [02:46]
Mike McClure
Mike, normally when we're doing this show or any of the shows that we do, it's always Kansas City in the conversation. But Meg and I get to have our team in the final four finally for the first time in what feels like 30 years. Because it is 30 years. How you feeling today?
- [03:02]
Fantasy Football Analyst
I'm feeling great. I'm excited for the Commanders as well. You know, a team that I. I won't say I adopted them throughout the year, but definitely followed them very closely with some of the excitement there and thought there was a lot of potential. So I'm very excited to see them here. Dare I say Jaden Daniels is the best quarterback in the nfc. If he wins this game, there will be zero doubt that he is the best rookie of all time at any position. So I am very, very much fired up to. To watch that game.
- [03:30]
Mike McClure
Yeah, I'm in on both of those takes. This conversation today, it's going to be, you know, we're going to break down both games. But. But, you know, Meg, I think when we have two games, you know, it really. Especially when we have two games and there's going to be some very popular game scripts in players. I feel like we need to kind of thread the needle here because we can't just pick the. I filled out a lineup last night and it was like, perfect. I had $0 left and I had every single person I wanted in there. And it was like probably like the lineup that I made. I wasn't trying to do this. It was probably the chalkiest lineup you anybody could have possibly made. And so I think we have to be weary of that. Even in the smaller contest, people are going to kind of gravitate to certain players. So I think when we talk about these games before we get into Commander's Eagles, it's all about contrarian plays. Yes. Contrarian constructions. Yes. But also contrarian game scripts. I feel like the contrarian game script side of this might be sort of the path to go where, let's say they think, you know, it's going to be this type of game and you just kind of go the opposite. Anyway. I don't know if you've made any lineups but how are you approaching this?
- [04:36]
Meg Shop
Yeah, similar to you. Of course, your, your first runs, your first builds do feel pretty chalky, but then from there I think you can just kind of, you know, flip certain pieces or flip, like you said, certain types of builds. Okay. Instead of two tight ends, I'm gonna do three running backs or, you know, you know, again, play the defense against the quarterback. You can do unique stuff within, you know, kind of editing that, that first chalky lineup, so to speak. And, and that's why I think I'm going to try to do. But I also think you made a great point that, you know, we're having the conversation that it's, it's all about like making, building off different potential game scripts and I think that's a way to get more contrarian here.
- [05:12]
Mike McClure
Mike, in a two game slate, does that take priority for you or is it just a matter of roster construction and just really like kind of going all in on maybe a popular game script but like on an onslaught where people aren't going to stack as much as you're gonna stack?
- [05:27]
Fantasy Football Analyst
Yeah, I, I think that it's one where you definitely can make certain stands and don't be afraid to go all in on them. You know, I think that there's different scenarios out there, basically. Like the example with Saquon's a little different. But like looking at Kansas City, if Kareem Hunt is RB2 on the slate, that's not going to be surprising at all. Right? It wouldn't. At least I don't think it should be to anyone. Right. So like projecting Cream Hunt over a guy like James Cook or something like that is very, very viable. You know, we did it the last week where I had a lot of success with Derrick Henry essentially projecting someone over him, Henry, you know, things like that. So you definitely, if you've got little liens, it's okay to take really drastic stances on them and then just make sure you're, you're building lineups that are correlated to whatever stance you want to take.
- [06:18]
Mike McClure
Yeah, totally makes sense. We've got a lot of people in the chat. James Grey Goose Hayes, Jake is in here. Kirk Moshi, I'm sure I'm leaving some Allen is in here. All of you, love the comments, love that you all appreciate this show, that you're gonna miss it when it's gone. I don't know if we have a show next week, but we certainly have a show for the Super bowl in two Thursdays. Greg Us says this season reminds me a lot of the RG3 season before he got hurt. Yeah, I think that's a totally fair comp. Obviously we think Jaden Daniels might be a different caliber quarterback, but it does feel like that type of season. All right, let's get into the commanders and the Eagles. Meg, I'm going to start with you. When I was talking about the Chalky builds, I mean, everybody's going to play Saquon and we'll have the Saquon conversation in a second. Let's just table the do we all have to play sake one conversation. He's 8,600, which is not that expensive under the circumstances. Obviously. I think a lot of people when before they even figure out their stack, I think they're going to be like, all right, I'm punching in Saquon. What's the next move? And I do think for a lot of people, even though this is a great defense, the next move is jaden Daniels with one or two pass catchers and oh, look, Diami Brown's only four, 400 people are going to want to jam him in. And Taryn McLaurin 6700, which really, again isn't that expensive because there's a lot of cheap options on this slate which we'll get to. I can bring up Austin Eckler, Olamide Zakias. Maybe he bounces back. Jameson Crowder is only 3100. Of course, Zach Ertz is 4300. Is it as easy as Jaden and a couple pass catchers in Saquon? Like, how are you playing this?
- [07:42]
Meg Shop
Well, I certainly am going to do a lineup with a Jane Daniels stack and running it back with Saquon. I think there you definitely need to find ways to have some contrarian pieces in your lineup because as you said, I do think that is going to be kind of the air quotes Chalky build. But yeah, with when I do Jaden Daniels stacks. I like him with Echler a lot. In the first, he didn't play in the second matchup. He played in the first matchup and he was targeted massively as a receiver, had I think eight catches for 89 yards, something along those lines. So I definitely like Echler. Here he comes with a little ownership but nothing crazy. I think Ertz is in play. He's gotten a ton of red zone looks. I believe he scored seven, you know, touchdowns in the last seven, seven or eight games. I mean he's had a lot of red zone looks all season, but also a ton of red zone touchdowns recently. So I think Ertz is fair. So if to do like Eckler Ertz as opposed to the receivers, I think that's a, maybe a unique combo with Jaden Daniels, but I certainly don't mind if you wanted to do Zakias or McLaren, obviously. And then I will say, excuse me, I meant Diami Brown or McLaurin. Zakias is running less routes in the playoffs, so he's coming with less ownership. But do you take the, the risk that he will get more looks, he will get more routes? That's a risk, but that's where. That's the kind of stands we make here when we're trying to get ownership leverage.
- [08:57]
Mike McClure
Yeah, Mike, it's interesting on Zacchaeus because he's been on the field. He did get a little nicked up last game, but he came back and I, I feel like they're using him as a blocker more than anything else and that's sort of why he's on the field a lot. Just, he's just not getting targeted. I think Jameson Crowder, if you really wanted to get Contrarian, is interesting because he's on the field and he's not getting a lot of targets. But he's a guy that absolutely could score a touchdown and just can get lost in the shuffle here. How you attacking the Washington side? Is it. Is it Jaden and. And stack him with three guys and maybe including Austin Eckler, or is it maybe Jaden and you, you don Terry McLaurin, but you play some of the other pass catchers?
- [09:32]
Fantasy Football Analyst
Yeah, I think it really, the answer to the question really comes down to what you like in the Buffalo game, Buffalo, Kansas City game. As far as where you're stacking, I do like Jaden a quarterback a lot for some pretty obvious reasons. You know, when I'm talking about stack partners, though, it looks like probably Austin Eckler is going to be my favorite piece. Just because he is going to be involved in the ground game, I expect him to be heavily involved in the passing game. And then I think that again, they're probably competitive and neutral or trailing most of the way. And if you get into the trailing stuff, that is where Austin Eckler I think is going to absolutely shine. So when I look at my builds with Jaden Daniels here, it really, it's mostly a lot of Austin Eckler and not getting, you know, crazy, crazy exposure. But some of that is like I, I want to play Saquon, who's taken up some salary. I think you have an interesting decision whether you want to Play Travis Kelsey or A.J. brown as another spend and then just some of the, the cheaper receivers on the Kansas City side are popping a little more for me and I think that when I just play Jaden Daniels and Austin Eckler, I can get exposure to a lot of the offense. On the Washington side you're obviously exposed if Robinson has rushing touchdowns, but I just, I don't think that's the way that the Commanders win this game personally. So I'm willing to take that risk and essentially fade him. For me right now it looks like mostly just Daniels and Echler is really with Saquon and then that, that's really kind of it for me. It's just going to be a real simple Daniels to Eckler.
- [11:09]
Mike McClure
Mike, let's have the Saquon Barkley and Eagles conversation. I mean again, Barclays 8600, which might sound expensive to some people, but obviously points per dollar like it's, it's not expensive at all. With that said, this is a unique situation in my opinion where, I mean it's so hard to avoid say Quantum and his rushing props 130. His combo prop is a hut over 140. With that said, I mean you got a two game slate and you know, everybody's treating Saquon Barkley. I know we use free square for like 4k guys, but I mean this does feel like a free square to people because I don't think people are going to think, hey, I, I want to fade Saquon. Is that if you're playing five lineups, is there cause to maybe think, hey, Saquon doesn't get there and you fade him?
- [11:50]
Fantasy Football Analyst
I don't think so, honestly. See, I'm gonna play him at 100%. You know, he's going to be 85 plus percent owned in this. It's very similar to me where we had Henry against Pittsburgh in the pre, not last round but the round before that. Yeah, just one of those situations where the salary works. It's not hard. So I'm, I'm gonna play Saquon in every lineup and it's really just the fact that the other teams on the slate are, are almost all running back by committee. And what I mean by that is we, we know that it is that case for Washington and Kansas City and Buffalo. I'll make the argument that it is because if you go look at rushing props, Josh Allen is treated as a running back in this. Yeah, Josh Allen and James Cook rushing yardage props are six yards apart for this game. Josh Allen's going to run the football 12 times minimum in this game. So like, I think it's because it's committee, you know, you're basically just betting on touchdown variants only. There's no reason to Fade Saquon here.
- [12:46]
Mike McClure
Uwe2k says if you fade Saquon, I think you're drawing dead. I mean, that's a completely fair comment. It almost feels like the only way Saquon doesn't get there is if somehow he like pulls a hamstring or something.
- [12:57]
Fantasy Football Analyst
Yeah, it's an injury. It's an injury situation. Like even the scenario he doesn't get in the end zone and Hurts gets all the rushing touchdowns. I would be stunned if he didn't have 80 to 100 yards and two catches and still like that 10 points might lead all running backs on the slate if James Cook doesn't score.
- [13:15]
Mike McClure
Yeah, Meg, it's interesting because the, you know, Saquon could quote, fail or not get there. But because of what Mike said about the other running backs on the slate, like, I mean he still could easily be in the optimal lineup. With that said, are you considering, I mean, when you look at Jalen Hurts numbers in terms of like the prop market. I'm not even just talking this week. I'm talking last week, the last couple of weeks. It's like crazy how low these numbers are. Like last week it was around 200 yards. He didn't get there. His completions prop last week was 17 and a half attempts was 25 and a half. It's even lower this week, which kind of speaks to me. Would you consider again, let's say you're making five single entry lineups. Would you consider a Jalen Hurts stack or are you just like, I'm not wasting my money. I'm going to Jaden or going to this Bills KC game.
- [13:59]
Meg Shop
Yes, I would. I am surprised looking at ownership at this point that it that he's not coming in lower. I thought going into before I looked at ownership that okay, if you want to get contrarian, do a Jalen hurt stack. But he's coming in the same ownership as Josh Allen, so you're not really getting the ownership leverage there. However, I think it's the kind of the build structure and this is not, it's like your, you know, close your ears for you and I. But if it really went bad for Washington and if the Eagles just, I mean, let's, let's be honest, Detroit still put up what, 400 yard, you know, 31 points and 400 yards or something. So it's like, you know, they could still get there and hopefully, you know, we're competitive or we win but. But they could still get there. Or if it is unfortunately a blowout and you just want to overstack the Eagles, Hertz, Brown, Saquon, another Goddard, you know, something like that, that might be the unique way to build around that. So I, as much as it grosses me out, I may do one lineup like that because I think that's the more contrarian way to approach Hertz with Saquon.
- [14:55]
Mike McClure
Mike, that's an interesting point. Having Hertz with Saquon obviously and just capturing all those points and they could both get a couple of touchdowns. We know Washington defense like they're kind of bend, don't break, but there comes a point where they potentially break and they just allow a ton of, a ton of yards and through the air and through the ground. If you were playing Jalen Hurts, would it be with Saquon and one of the pass catchers on this two game slate?
- [15:16]
Fantasy Football Analyst
It would and it would also be the defense, you know, so actually a couple weeks ago, you know, we didn't talk about, because I wasn't on that show there. But the, the round where it was the, like the wild card round with Houston and Stroud, like I, I played Houston Stack my lineup, that one, I took down a tournament, the gpp, big, big score. Actually I had Stroud, Mixon, Collins, Schultz and the Texans defense all in the same lineup which ended up being relatively unique because not a lot of people, you know, you're not going to get that with a hand build generally. Right. But I project this is a similar spot. I, I project this is one that, you know, the consensus is that Washington is probably not as far off as the, the spread indicates at 6. So I think that a lot of builds are going to look to the commander side with Saquon. I think there is a, definitely a case to be made. Now the case that I would make the first three in would be Hertz, obviously Saquon and then that Eagles defense, it's going to be something correlated to just ground and pound the entire way for the Eagles. That's the scenario where I would build it as far as another player in there. There is enough action in the Kansas City game that I'm not gonna force pass catchers in. The one that I could force in would actually be Goddard knowing that I would also be playing Travis Kelsey anyway in a double tight end build. But to long story short, very much interested in a Jalen Hurts lineup. Still, because one or two tush pushes and you're there.
- [16:49]
Mike McClure
Let's rank the following three that we haven't talked about too much. You did just mention Dallas Goddard, but Meg, I'll start with you. And Price is considered here, right? So AJ Brown 6800 Devonte Smith 5800 Dallas Goddard 4500. How do you rank those three in terms of likelihood that you're going to play them?
- [17:07]
Meg Shop
Even though A.J. brown is coming at incredibly high, pretty high ownership, he's getting a really high target share and he has a couple drops last week. There were some callbacks last week. So it would be A.J. brown, Goddard, DeVonta Smith for me, Mike, that's tough.
- [17:26]
Fantasy Football Analyst
It really, it depends on your lineup, Bill, like your construction. Right. And how you see the game. If you think the Eagles win this game easily, it would be A.J. brown for me because I think it's just like you hit the home run ball and ultimately get there. Now if you think Washington can win this game, like if you really believe Washington can win this game, Devonte Smith would be number one for me. And the scenario in which the Eagles lose this game or the commanders win it is maybe one where Jalen hurts is actually limited in terms of some of his mobility, where he's not able to create and hit some of those big shots. It's going to be more volume talking like slants over the middle of the field to Devonte. But that's only going to come in the situation where we're like truly neutral or trailing. So you'd need to have potentially Jaden Daniels and Austin Eckler on one side and then Saquon and Devonte on the other side would be kind of the build that I'd look to at that point. Now, as we talked about all that, I think you could do that same Eagles onslaught without Jalen Hurts. So I think you could play AJ Saquon, the defense and Goddard with a different quarterback. Whether it be Mahomes Allen or, or Jaden. I think that that is a, a very viable build here as well.
- [18:39]
Jimmy Conrad
Yeah.
- [18:39]
Mike McClure
And again, I think you bring up a good point on the front end of that comment. You gotta consider, at least consider alternate game scripts where maybe Washington's playing from the lead, which they were against Detroit. Nobody thought that was going to happen. So what does that game look like if they're playing from a lead? Maybe it's like a 10 point lead. Maybe something crazy happens, like who knows what it is. But I think those lineups aren't going to really Be built. So you, those have to be in play for you too. If you're making a few lineups here before we move on to the next game, are we in or out on 4, 300? Zach Ertz, Meg.
- [19:12]
Meg Shop
I think I'm in. It's definitely in my player pool. How often I'll get there, I'm not sure, but I'm in. He's getting a ton of red zone looks.
- [19:18]
Mike McClure
That's right, Mike. In or out on Zach?
- [19:21]
Fantasy Football Analyst
I would say in. Definitely in the player pool. I, I am admittedly going to target Travis Kelsey again. He looked a lot better last week. Buffalo or Buffalo's been atrocious in the secondary as well. So you're getting the discount. You know, keep in mind, on Travis Kelsey, like in previous years, he'd be 7, 500 right now. 8K. He's a flat 6K. And so is his quarterback, Patrick Mahomes. It's just like you've never seen this combo cheap like this. So he's going to be priority number one. But I, I do have a decent amount of Zachary. It's popping up here.
- [19:53]
Mike McClure
All right, Lee Price in the chat he says Hertz rushing yard prop down about 10 yards from the historical average. Yeah, that makes a ton of sense, especially under his current possible injury circumstances. And by the way, I mentioned his passing yards prop. It looks like it's universally in that low 180s range, which is incredibly low. Just so everybody knows, Jaden Daniels is in that anywhere between like 220, 221 and 225, 226. Josh Allen in that 230 range and Patrick Mahomes just over 250. Those are just passing yards, not, not combo passing and rushing. All right, we do have to talk about a little bit of rushing because we're going to end up talking about some Josh Allen and Patrick, he runs a little bit, especially in games like this. We're going to cover Casey and Buffalo right after this message from our partners.
- [20:35]
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- [21:34]
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- [22:35]
Meg Shop
Easy.
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- [23:04]
Mike McClure
On fantasy football today DFS. If you're watching us over on Twitter, jump over to the Fantasy Football Today YouTube page and get in the chat. Let us know what you think about some of these plays, about some of these games. And by the way, so many compliments in here about the show. If you haven't already reviewed the podcast, go to Apple, Spotify, wherever you review podcasts, hit five stars, say a couple words. It takes, honestly, about seven or eight seconds tops. I mean, I'm not even exaggerating that point. All right, Buffalo and Kansas City. Well make we started with you when we were talking about your favorite team, so now we're going to start with Mike. When we talk about his favorite team who always happens to be in this. Is it like it. Did I, did I hear this stat wrong? Is it like seven AFC championships in a row? I heard that wrong, right? That's not, that's not true.
- [23:47]
Fantasy Football Analyst
It's, it's truly unbelievable. The, the success. But you know what? I think your commanders could be blessed with the same thing. Heading, heading here. I think they're in a really, really good spot. You know, as far as this game I'm playing, I'm definitely playing my home's lineups. So Buffalo, it's interesting I mentioned it on the early edge, you know, what, an hour ago, right. So when I look at this Buffalo team in terms of EPA per play defensively they're the worst team in the playoffs. They're still alive, but they were the worst team in the playoffs defensively here. And it's all because of the pass. Since week 11 they are down to 29th in the NFL in EPA per drop back. That's a problem because Kansas City doesn't want to take the ball out of Patrick Mahomes hands. He's going to throw the ball. When you look at these competitive games, Kansas City's throwing the ball just over 70% of the time. It's really not balanced at all. And when I look at this matchup here, you were talking about low price points again. Patrick Mahomes, flat 6K, Travis Kelsey, a flat 6K. That combination used to be 8K and 8K. Like you're getting a two thousand dollar discount off of where they were. Now they haven't played like how they had in years past until very, very recently in this last game. And this is a spot where in a matchup that I think Buffalo is going to surrender enough yards that you're just getting a massive discount here. And if you want to throw in Xavier Worley, he's 5500 like that stack of. But the double stack, you can easily play Saquon, you can essentially play whatever you want. Right? So Mahomes will definitely be my top quarterback despite surrendering some of the massive ceiling to a guy like Josh Allen in the rushing department.
- [25:27]
Mike McClure
Yeah, Meg, we'll toggle back and forth between these two teams, but I think one route where Patrick Mahomes doesn't get there in Kansas City, pass catchers don't. I mean Kansas City pass catches are kind of a finicky thing outside of Travis Kelsey. So we'll talk about that in terms of the value and upside of Xavier Worthy and Marquis Brown. Maybe guys Like D hop as well. But on the bill side, I think the way the Bills win the game and the way that Patrick Mahomes doesn't get there really in any statistical category is if Josh Allen and guys like James Cook hold on to the ball. And Khalil Shakir, who doesn't really get downfield, you know, he's more of a just like we're going to throw it 10 yards down the field to Khalil Shakir, he's going to catch it and you know, the clock's going to continue to run. I feel like playing that narrative is actually really interesting with of course, maybe some KC run backs. Do you like the bill side at all?
- [26:15]
Meg Shop
I like Josh Allen for sure. Overstacking the Bills is. Is. Is hard for me just because of the routes they run, the targets, you know, it's just not consistent. So for me, I love Josh Allen here. You're paying up for it, but you're getting the ownership discount. You he's. Like I said, it's he and Hertz or excuse me, he and Hertz have the lowest ownership among the four quarterbacks. Now, it's not like you're getting massive ownership leverage, but you're getting a little. And I think potentially, obviously Josh Allen has like the best floor ceiling combo on the slate. So I know lately they're more run heavy, but as we saw last week, he contributes to that, that running game. He had two rushing touchdowns last week. He's historically played the Chiefs very well. I definitely think this could be a punch back and forth type game. So I do like Allen. I'm not going to overstack it and I definitely like targeting a tight end. I'm actually going to take the ownership leverage there and I like stacking him with Knox, the cheap tight end who's coming in at sub 10% ownership. We know you can attack Chiefs through the tight end position, but Kincaid and Knox, they run about the same routes. Knox actually ran more routes last week. They had, you know, both had two catches in the game where Kincaid mix missed it was against these Chiefs. Knox had, I believe four catches for 40 yards. That's only eight DK points. But if he finds the end zone and you're getting him at sub 10% ownership, that's where I like it. So I kind of like the Allen, Knox fill in some Chiefs run backs. Obviously Kelsey and, and you know, we can talk about others, but I'm not overstacking it. I certainly think if you want to go outside of Shakir, you get massive ownership leverage on the Bills receivers. But good luck. Good luck picking. I mean that's for people who are mass entering and if you want to allocate certain percent to each Bill's receiver, you're getting massive ownership leverage on those receivers. But I couldn't begin to try to predict which one would be the one you'd try to play.
- [28:02]
Mike McClure
It's really interesting you say that because it's, you know, we, we think of DFS as gambling in some sense, but you're purely, truly gambling with that rotation of receivers. But that's not necessarily a bad thing on a two game slate. If you happen to hit, if, if you grab Keon Coleman and He grabs a 70 yard touchdown, a couple other cat whatever it is, you can get there. Let me ask you this. If you're going to gamble, Mike, I'm going to ask the same question to you. And then we're going to get to the KC receivers. If you're going to gamble on a receiver, forget about the tight ends. A receiver outside of Khalil, Shakira, Keon Coleman, Mack Hollins, I feel like those are the, and Curtis Samuel maybe are the top candidates with Amari Cooper being like trailing in last place. Amari happens to be the only one in the 4K range. The other three are in the 3K range. Are there two receivers you would if you were making a handful of lineups you gamble on?
- [28:47]
Meg Shop
I, I, it's just so hard for me. I'd maybe take a shot on Curtis Samuel. We saw him kind of pop a couple weeks ago. Kind of manufactured touches. But yeah, it's, it's guessing, it's a major guesswork.
- [29:00]
Mike McClure
I think it's Curtis Samuel too. And again, I think if game plan is let's keep Pat Mahomes off the field, let's keep this clock rolling. It's a lot of short area passes to Khalil, to Curtis Samuel and then get James Cook and Josh Allen involved in the running game. Mike, do you have an opinion on these Buffalo pass catchers?
- [29:16]
Fantasy Football Analyst
Yeah, I'm not playing any of them other than Shakira Knox.
- [29:18]
Mike McClure
That's an opinion.
- [29:19]
Fantasy Football Analyst
Curtis Samuel would be the guy though. You're, you're dead on there. And the reason for that is they can manufacture touches. As Meg mentioned, he can catch the ball around the line of scrimmage. He's relatively difficult to tackle in space and that's frankly why he's been, you know, an asset to the team or at least they thought he would be and why they brought him in. Right. So I, I, I'm only playing Shakura Knox. You know, I've got one lineup that I love. I think it's going to be heavily duped. That's the problem you run into on a, a two game slate. But yeah, it's, it's those two and move on. I would much rather save over Curtis Samuel. I'd Rather save the 900 with Knox, play him at flex, pair them with Kelsey and kind of move on.
- [29:58]
Mike McClure
All right, so talk to me about some of the KC guys. Mike. Kareem Hunt is 5400. We talked about how some of the running backs are such a drop off after Barkley, Kareem Hunt, or James Cook in your builds. Who are you finding more of in your builds? I assume it's Kareem Hunt.
- [30:14]
Fantasy Football Analyst
Yeah, a little bit more. Hunt versus Cook. To Cook, the price point's just nuts. At 7K, essentially 6, 900, it's a little much considering how much I think Josh Allen's going to take priority, particularly in the red zone. Now if you, if you're in the camp that thinks Kansas City struggles offensively, then I think that Cook is a phenomenal play. Like, I think he's a great play at that point. I think Kansas City is going to score points here. And I think that we've seen the other running backs. Someone just mentioned Ty Johnson. You got Davis as well. I think that they mix in those backs a little bit as well. So to me, this is not a great spot to play him. I have more interest in Hunt. I think the more interesting question is what do you do with Hunt vs Eckler? Because Austin Eckler can, he's got a ton of, you know, ceiling and upside in terms of catching passes, but Hunt does seem to potentially get those goal line carries. So yeah, it's, that's going to be the toughest call for me is doing that. Because there's a lineup that I like here. I'm gonna read it off. I don't normally share a full lineup. I'll read it off. It's Mahomes, Barkley, Hunt worthy, Shakir, AJ Brown, Travis Kelsey, Dawson, Knox, and the Eagles. Notice that has zero Washington commanders in it. You could obviously play Eckler over Hunt, but for me it would be that Kansas City onslaught where it's Mahomes, Hunt worthy, Kelsey, that, that's a lineup that I'm looking at playing here right now.
- [31:40]
Mike McClure
Yeah, I think it's really important that you brought up James Cook and, and the only way he's like super viable is if, if Buffalo is kind of dominating this game somehow from the outset. And again, I think these alternate narrative, alternative narratives are something to potentially build for because this is only a two point spread. It's not like Kansas City's favored by 10 here. Like that is absolutely in play. Patrick Mahomes seems to never have a bad playoff game, but it's in play at least. And then all of a sudden it becomes the Josh Allen and James Cook show. And you can build for that. Like I can think of some lineups where I'd have James Cook featured in this game in a potential Buffalo positive game script. And everything else goes to that other game with the exception of maybe one or two pieces. Like, I think you can build for those alternative narratives. And on a two game slate, I feel like you should do that. Mike, go ahead.
- [32:24]
Fantasy Football Analyst
Yeah, I think the, the real thing it probably comes down to is Cook versus A.J. brown. And I know they play different positions, but it's a two game slate. I think that's the decision that ultimately can decide a lot of these contests this week. Whether it's AJ gets in the end zone, you know, gets that 100 yard bonus potentially and Cook. So I, for me, I think that that's the toughest decision, but I am leaning towards still potentially including AJ Brown here over Cook.
- [32:55]
Mike McClure
All right, Mike, I'm gonna ask you this and then Meg, I'm gonna ask you this. The receive the past catches for Kansas City. Xavier Worthy 5500 seems like a pretty good price. Marquis Brown kind of fell flat last week, but, but had some potential. He's only 4, 200. Are they making it into your builds and is there any other Casey pass catcher outside of Kelsey that would be making those builds?
- [33:14]
Fantasy Football Analyst
Yeah, Xavier Worthy's wide receiver, one for me on the entire slate. He. He's just simply too talented in the way that they can use him. Buffalo has been, as I mentioned, atrocious in the secondary. He, he's so difficult to cover because of the speed. And the thing that I like to point out on him is while, yes, it's happened many times and we hope it gets better at some point. If you go back and watch Kansas City play, we're missing probably like 8 massive Xavier worthy highlights. That didn't count because he had half a foot out of bounds because he lost track of where he was. And that's just things that happen, you know, as a rookie in the league. Right. But he's, you know, right there on some massive, massive plays. And they're going to continue to Give him the football. So for me, he. He is clearly wide receiver one really for me on this entire slate, regardless of price in terms of wanting to put him in my lineup.
- [34:07]
Mike McClure
An emphasis on wide receiver there. Because, Meg, you know, when you look at the receiving yards, props across the four teams, Travis Kelsey actually leads the way as. As you two know. And it's close depending on where you look. It's in that 70 range. Just so everybody knows, Terry is in the 65 range. And I'm ballparking it because books are different across, you know, across books. It's a little different. AJ Brown 60 then, yet Khalil Shakir 55, Xavier Worthy 49. And then you got Devonte Smith after that in the high 40s as well. Meg, are you playing. You think you're playing Xavier Worthy as well? Because when I built that super chalky lineup, Xavier Worthy was definitely one of my first click because. Because I think Mike's right. Like, first of all, he's getting a lot of work anyway, especially nowadays, but we know he's viable for that long catch in that long run or that end around that goes to the house. So Xavier Worthy in your lineups. And is there any other pass catcher for KC that you like outside of Travis Kelsey?
- [34:55]
Meg Shop
Yeah, I'm with you. And Mike Worthy is early click. Maybe it's not the very first one, but it's an early click for me and I see him in most of my lineups for sure. Outside of. Obviously Kelsey is as well, but outside of that, I don't know them forcing it. Marquis Brown did run the routes. His routes went up last week, but only had two targets. Didn't get there, you know, didn't bring it in. So could he this week? Absolutely. But you're not getting any ownership leverage by. By going to that because he's still. I'm still seeing him at around 50% ownership. So you are getting ownership discount on Hopkins, but he's not really. At least last week didn't run the routes. Maybe that changes this week. So I'd say if you wanted ownership leverage, you could try Hopkins and hope he runs more routes. Get some. It's like an end zone target. And I, I don't fault you if you do want to, you know, stack with. With Hollywood Brown too. We know he can be explosive as well, but my priorities are definitely kind of the chalky ones. And Kelsey and Worthy.
- [35:48]
Mike McClure
Yeah. And again, some of this stuff is going to be chalky and building with contrarian pieces or just some onslaught stacks that you don't think people are going to do contrarian builds. And again, contrarian game scripts I think are really, really important this week. Well, listen, we don't have Mike, anything else to follow up on this game because I wanted to discuss cheat sheets and in top threes, but we're not gonna have official plays in that capacity because it's just the two game slate. But I do want to talk about some of our favorite plays. Anything left on this Kansas City Buffalo game, don't be.
- [36:17]
Fantasy Football Analyst
You know, one thing I'm considering as well, I know we like Knox. I actually might have a dual tight end build. That's Kelsey and Noah Gray, both of them. I just think there are ways that Kelsey can get there through sheer volume. Noah Gray can get there in the red zone, as we've seen a couple times. So that's one build that I'm considering, especially where I'm playing Mahomes worthy Kelsey and not the running backs. I, I, that's a build that I'm strongly considering here. And I don't think anyone plays Noah Gray for 400 more than Dawson Knox here.
- [36:50]
Mike McClure
That's interesting. So it would be in, in at least a lineup, you would have Patrick Mahomes worthy Kelsey and Noah Gray.
- [36:57]
Fantasy Football Analyst
Yep.
- [36:57]
Mike McClure
I will say this because I was looking at Patrick Mahomes passing yards prop, which again is around 252, but it's completions prop. It's 24 and a half. And I think it might even be juiced a little bit to the over. That is, that is an incredibly high completions prop. So to your point, Mike, in terms of like leaving the ball in Patrick Mahomes hands 100. That's what they're gonna do. So, you know, you could have Noah Gray at 3K with easily a few catches in this type of atmosphere.
- [37:22]
Fantasy Football Analyst
Yeah, I mean, for to the point, you know, again, it's not a full slate. Like at a flex spot at 3K right there. 3 catches, 36 yards is it might be enough on this slate.
- [37:32]
Mike McClure
Very, very interesting. All right, Meg, listen, you did fill out a cheat sheet. I didn't because I'm just kind of just free willing it on today's show. But with that said, let's talk about some of your favorite plays in terms of, you know, and you've kind of given your opinion on all these games, but like, if you had to pick a favorite stack and a chalk by chalk fade contrarian value, what do you like?
- [37:52]
Meg Shop
Sure. Yeah. We talked about Josh Allen. You know, he's played the Chiefs well. So coming in A little ownership doing Josh Allen with Dawson Knox for the ownership leverage at the tight end position. Of course I know a lot of us are probably running double tight end builds chalk by of course Saquon. We talked that through, obviously. Two matchups against Washington, 300 yards, four touchdowns, gonna go back there. Talk fade. I put Shakir just because, you know, he doesn't have that touchdown equity like some of these other receivers. So, you know, if you're just fading a 6 for 60, which has kind of been what a lot of Shakir games are, then I can dodge that. And you know, maybe I do after talking this through, take a stab on like Curtis Samuel. If I did want to run a second Bill's piece. Contrarian, I put Dawson Knox and Kareem Hunt. Dawson Knox is sub 10. I believe Kareem Hunt is around 20 or lower. So that's low on a two game slate. And Mike talked through that and I definitely have some interest in Korean Hunt. I actually had a follow up question for you and Mike about three running back builds versus two tight end builds. But Kareem Hunt is definitely in consideration whether you're playing him over Eckler or Cook or just as a third running back. And then value. I'll just stick with the whole Dawson Knox thing. You're getting 2.6K tight end and hoping he gets in the end zone, basically, Mike.
- [39:06]
Mike McClure
And any response to what Meg just kind of referenced in terms of are a lot of your builds, three running backs and how much are two tight ends are you having?
- [39:14]
Fantasy Football Analyst
Yeah, I got a lot of tie two tight end initially. You know, I think that the two running backs, like if you don't play three running backs, you leave yourself very exposed, which I, I'm okay with personally, I'm okay with taking that risk. But if there's a scenario where James Cook scores multiple touchdowns, I can assure you that I'm not winning this week. Right. So because you're going to need them, you're going to need Cook and Barkley for sure at that point. So I'm leaning more towards the two tight end build than the, the three running back build. So that, that's just where I'm leaning there, which I'll tell you, Cook is the guy that I'm not playing for the most part.
- [39:57]
Mike McClure
Fair enough. All right, Mike, I do want to ask you about some of your maybe favorite pieces at each position. Not necessarily a top three kind of where you think you're going to go all in on with some of these stacks and whatnot, but I'll say my stack is going to be the same stack that I had last week. It's Jaden Daniels and Diami Brown. And by the way, UE2 cases a commander's onslaught, we have to remember that the commanders in that game where they won and granted they beat Kenny Pickett, they threw for five. Jaden Daniels threw for five touchdown passes. If memory serves, they also had five turnovers in that game. I guess the point being is no matter how good this Eagles defense is, there is the possibility that Washington puts up a lot of points just like they did against Detroit. I understand two different defenses, but I think the onslaught is really, really interesting. And I think you could make the argument that you get a lot of players in that game, including Saquon Barkley on the other side and you say to yourself it's just going to be, you know, dink and dunk on the Kansas City side, grab Kelsey and grab James Cook and just hope that it's, it's really just a running game for the Buffalo Bills. So I think that type of, of narrative is certainly in play. As far as my chalk bite, it is probably going to be Saquon, my chalk fate. I agree with you. It's not going to. It's going to be Shakira. I think he's an okay play, but I just think the upside is, is a little limited, especially when some of these other receivers can get peppered in particularly down the field contrarian play. I don't really have one. So I think Noah Gray, I'm certainly convinced there from Mike and then there's just plenty of value plays that we talked about on the board. I think you could go back to Hollywood Brown, but I think there's plenty in that Washington game and even some chances to take potentially on a Curtis Samuel in the Buffalo Bills game. All right, Mike, how about just some, some stacks you like and maybe a couple of core pieces that most of your builds have.
- [41:38]
Fantasy Football Analyst
Yeah, I'll say every build will have Saquon Worthy and Kelsey. Those will be the, the top three pieces that'll for sure be in every lineup. I'll play Noah Gray a little bit as a little bit of a contrarian stance, only doing that with Mahomes at quarterback. I'm not sprinkling. If you're looking for a cheap tight end in a non Mahomes lineup, it would be Knox for me. I only want Noah Gray with Patrick Mahomes because the scenario that Noah Gray goes off, I think it's Patrick Mahomes has multiple Touchdowns, I don't think it's Noah Gray catches the only Patrick Bones touchdown. So that, that's how I'm building that. As far as running backs, it is, it's a toss up right now for me. I'm leaning Kareem Hunt still. I see a question in the chat. Who will be the, the pass catching back for Kansas City? I think Kareem Hunt is the back that they trust the most. Samaji P. Ryan is in there and pass protection a bit on third down. But when the game's on the line, if it is on the line, I think Kareem Hunt is the guy that, that's going to get the look. So I'm leaning there. We talked not enough about Buffalo and that was my fault there. I think Johnson, Ty Johnson is interesting in the scenario that Buffalo falls behind and it is trailing. So if you need some salary savings, I could see that being viable. And then the other guy that I, I still like devonte Smith a little bit, but again that's only in Jaden Daniels lineups. Only in the scenario where Washington is really, really, really pushing.
- [43:05]
Mike McClure
Very, very interesting build for the narrative. One last question before we get out of here, Meg. I'm gonna. Well, I'm gonna ask both of you this. Meg, I'm gonna start with you. The team most likely to go over their implied total and I'll give you each team's implied total. Washington just under 21, so let's just call it 21, Eagles just under 27. So we'll call it 27. So Washington 21, Eagles 27, the Chiefs 24 and the Bills 23. Team most likely to go over their implied total.
- [43:34]
Meg Shop
Oh, this is tough. I'm gonna. I think this could actually be a higher scoring game in the Chiefs. Buffalo. So don't get mad at me, Mike, but I'm gonna say Bills on this one. I'm gonna say that I see them going over 23 and a half.
- [43:46]
Mike McClure
Okay, Mike, same question for you.
- [43:47]
Fantasy Football Analyst
Yeah, I think the answer is probably the Bills or Kansas City. I think it's that game for me. And the only reason I say that is I think that Philly can have enough success on the ground that they just really limit possessions in that.
- [43:59]
Mike McClure
Yeah.
- [44:00]
Fantasy Football Analyst
Is what I could see happening. So. And I. And that goes the same way. I think Washington can move the ball, but I don't think they're hitting 60 yard home run balls in this game. I think it's moving the football down the field. So I'll say Buffalo only because of the key number, right. 24 is super key. They're listed at 23 and a half. Like the scenario that Buffalo lands on 24, I, I think is probably likely here. Now, where does the 24 come from? I feel better about where the 24 comes from on the Kansas City side. So I, I like in dfs, I like the Kansas City side a lot more here.
- [44:34]
Mike McClure
All right. It's such a good point about Washington. Don't expect to see what you saw last week. I mean, I know they did that against the Eagles to some degree when they played Kenny Pickett and company, but, you know, you had such a banged up defense and then Amik Robertson, their best defensive back, went out within like five minutes of the game starting, which honestly, like, I feel bad for Detroit. How many injuries could this defense possibly sustain? It's just not going to hold up against most teams, but especially not against Jaden Daniels. So, I mean, I do think that's interesting in terms of Jaden Daniel's ability to throw it downfield. Maybe that makes Austin Eckler even more palatable. Maybe that makes Olamide Zakias even more palatable. And of course, Terry McLaurin and Zachary. I think that makes things interesting. I'm gonna, I'm gonna choose Washington, though. I mean, they just keep scoring. So 21 implied total, I, I still think is too low, maybe even in garbage time if they're getting blown out, which hopefully that's not the case. I think Jaden can put up some points there. Jalen Carter versus that backup tackle. Yeah, that's. Trent Scott is going to be fun. Yeah. Sam Cosby being out is not good. But this offensive line, Trent Scott's a veteran. Like, this offensive line's been pretty good. It's been, it's been pretty good, but much better than. And that's partly because of Jaden Daniels. All right, I think that's it. Meg, any final thoughts before we get out of here? We'll be back in a couple of weeks to talk showdown in the super bowl, so don't forget that. But Meg, any final thoughts here?
- [45:51]
Meg Shop
No, I think we talked through a lot of it. Just, I think build for those alternate game scripts if you're trying to be contrarian and. Yeah, enjoy, enjoy. We got two more fun weekends here.
- [46:01]
Mike McClure
Yeah. And Mike, before you give out your comment, UE2K. I mean, he makes a really good point here. He says, Mr. Najad, okay, Stafford went off on that D last week. That's very true. Like, I mean, this defense. Here's the thing. About the, the Eagles defense, I don't think it's as good as we've been talking about over the last couple of months. I think it's great. But I like the fact that we've had, we've seen quarterbacks over the last six weeks really kind of not dominate the defense but really find holes in this defense is is telling and that includes Matt Stafford last week in a game that the Rams easily could have won in my opinion. Mike, any final thoughts?
- [46:32]
Fantasy Football Analyst
Yeah, just don't be afraid to leave salary, especially receiving. Like if A.J. brown doesn't score a touchdown at 6800, there's a good chance a, you know, 4200 Hollywood Brown can outscore him. So there, there's a lot of ways to get different and don't remember you don't have to be the team that you think is going to win to play. There's many scenarios where there's things that might sound and seem negatively correlated but like the Eagles defense being good and picking off Jaden Daniels twice early in this game might be a great thing for Jaden Daniels fantasy score.
- [47:07]
Mike McClure
Yeah.
- [47:08]
Fantasy Football Analyst
Right. So just a lot of things to think through like always every week. But leave some salary on the table is the best way to get different here.
- [47:15]
Mike McClure
All right, we got two comments that I just have to read. One is from Rad Pav who came in here late. Thanks for coming in at all. I appreciate everybody in here says I came in here just to say go Birds to Sia and Meg. All right. I mean we'll see how this turns out. Obviously we're playing with house money here. As long as our king stays healthy going into next season. I'm looking very optimistic because Mike, you made that comment about Washington. They've got what, $90 million in cap space. I think they're like in the top three as far as cap space is concerned. So this is a team as long as the quarterback stays healthy and I always worry about that. We, we went through the RG3 experience 12 years ago. We got where things are looking up.
- [47:52]
Meg Shop
Future is bright. That's right.
- [47:54]
Mike McClure
Future is bright. Yeah. And then Lee Price says appreciate enjoy the best. Four teams are remaining. All right, ladies and gentlemen, that was 44 minutes on just two games. But I thought we just attacked it from so many different angles and that's what you have to do on a two game slate. Everybody, thank you for joining us. That's Mike McClure. We got Meg Shop, we got me seeing Ajad and we've been bringing you FFT DFS all year. We still got a show to go before this season ends, so tune in for that. Meanwhile, have fun on Sunday watching Championship weekend. Go Commanders. Go Chiefs. I guess that's what this show is going to be all about. Maybe the Commanders, the Chiefs in the super bowl. Hopefully. Ladies and gentlemen, have a great week and weekend. We'll see you next time on Fantasy Football. Today, DFS Paramount Podcasts this message comes.
- [48:50]
Redfin Representative
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