Fantasy Football Today Podcast Summary

Episode Title: NFL DFS Week 11 Preview: Main Slate Lineups, Picks, Stacks and Ownership (FFT DFS)
Release Date: November 15, 2024
Hosts: Adam Aizer, Dave Richard, Jamey Eisenberg, Heath Cummings, Mike McClure, Meg Shaughnessy
Guest Analyst: (Name not specified in transcript)
Knowledge Cutoff: October 2023

Introduction

In the Week 11 episode of "Fantasy Football Today," hosts Mike McClure and Meg Shaughnessy, along with guest analyst, delve deep into the intricacies of Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS), providing listeners with comprehensive previews of the upcoming NFL slate. The discussion emphasizes lineup strategies, player picks, stacking methods, and ownership projections to help enthusiasts dominate their leagues.

Overview of Week 11 Slate

Mike McClure opens the discussion at [02:37] by highlighting the expansion from a 10-game slate the previous week to an 11-game slate this week. The hosts promise rapid-fire analysis, covering eight games in the 1 PM slot and three in the 4 PM slot. They encourage listener engagement through live chats and promote their FFT DFS Week 11 contest, emphasizing its accessibility and payout structure.

Key Points:

• 11-Game Slate: Increased opportunities for DFS entrants.
• Contest Promotion: $5 entry fee with top 20 payouts in a 200-person contest.

Detailed Matchup Analyses

1. Packers vs. Bears
   Timestamp: [03:50 – 05:00]
   The Packers vs. Bears game is assessed as having limited DFS appeal due to low projected scoring and team turmoil.

   • Mike McClure: Expresses disinterest, stating, "I don't think I really want to be involved in this game" [03:50].
   • Guest Analyst: Notes potential value in the Packers' defense but remains skeptical about skill positions [03:50].
   • Meg Shaughnessy: Agrees with the majority, mentioning Josh Jacobs as a possible consideration [04:44].

   Conclusion: Limited value with possible focus on the Packers' defensive plays or contrarian picks like Josh Jacobs.

2. Jacksonville vs. Detroit
   Timestamp: [05:00 – 07:45]
   With an implied total of 47 points, this matchup presents mixed DFS opportunities.

   • Mike McClure: Highlights concerns on both sides, suggesting David Montgomery as a contrarian play [05:00].
   • Meg Shaughnessy: Supports Montgomery's inclusion, citing his fluctuating usage depending on game scripts [05:45].

   Conclusion: David Montgomery emerges as the primary contrarian pick, while other options remain limited due to the diversified Rosters and inconsistent performances.

3. Raiders vs. Dolphins
   Timestamp: [07:45 – 10:14]
   With a lower implied total of 25.5 points, the focus shifts to individual player performances.

   • Mike McClure: Points to Devin Hn (presumably DeVante Adams or similar) as a value play [09:34].
   • Guest Analyst: Affirms interest in Hn due to his consistent target volume despite recent setbacks [09:34].
   • Meg Shaughnessy: Adds Johnny Smith as a potential tight end option, emphasizing his increased involvement [10:41].

   Conclusion: Devin Hn and Johnny Smith are recommended for their potential upside in a low-scoring game.

4. Vikings vs. Titans
   Timestamp: [10:14 – 12:25]
   This matchup is deemed uninteresting for DFS due to balanced defenses and lackluster offensive prospects.

   • Mike McClure: Considers skipping this game entirely [11:59].
   • Meg Shaughnessy: Unlikely to prioritize any players from this matchup [12:21].

   Conclusion: Minimal DFS interest; best to bypass this game.

Player Picks and Strategies

1. Contrarian Plays

   • David Montgomery (Jacksonville): Suggested as a contrarian pick due to his fluctuating usage [05:00].
   • Taysom Hill (Saints vs. Packers): Considered a high-risk, high-reward option [21:47].

2. Value Plays

   • Davis Allen (Saints): A cheap tight end option with potential for multiple targets [29:33].
   • Dawson Knox (Buffalo): Offers value in a tight end funnel with reasonable pricing [41:01].

3. Stacking Strategies

   • Jameis Winston and Cedric Tillman: Highlighted as an effective stack for the Saints matchup [17:46].
   • Russell Wilson and George Pickens: Recommended for their synergistic potential against the Ravens' defense [23:24].

4. High-Ownership Players

   • Alvin Kamara: A staple in many lineups due to his volume and consistent performance [21:10].
   • Christian McCaffrey: Emphasized as a must-start due to his high ceiling and consistent usage [35:54].

Ownership Projections

• High Ownership: Players like Alvin Kamara and Christian McCaffrey are expected to dominate lineups due to their proven track records and high potential for scoring [07:45].
• Low Ownership Contrarians: David Montgomery and Taysom Hill are suggested for their potential to differentiate lineups in larger contests [05:00], [21:47].
• Increased Ownership Stacks: Stacks involving quarterbacks like Jameis Winston and Russell Wilson with their respective receivers are anticipated to see higher ownership rates [17:46], [23:24].

Additional Insights and Tips

• Game Scripts: Understanding the likely flow of the game can influence player selections. For instance, if a team is expected to run the ball heavily, running backs on that team might see increased touches [05:00].
• Negative Correlation: Leveraging players whose performances are inversely related can mitigate risk. Example: Choosing Taysom Hill when pairing with other volatile positions [22:27].
• Stacking Efficiency: Effective stacking not only maximizes potential points but also leverages the synergy between quarterback and receiver performances [17:46], [23:24].
• Value Optimization: Selecting cost-effective players in cheaper positions (e.g., tight ends under $4,000) allows for allocating more budget towards high-impact roles like running backs and wide receivers [29:33], [41:01].

Conclusion

The Week 11 preview on "Fantasy Football Today" offers a wealth of strategies and player insights tailored for DFS enthusiasts aiming to optimize their lineups. By focusing on contrarian plays, value selections, and effective stacking, listeners are equipped to navigate the expanded 11-game slate with confidence. The emphasis on ownership projections and game script analysis further empowers participants to make informed decisions, enhancing their chances of dominating their fantasy leagues.

Notable Quotes:

• Mike McClure: "We've got an 11 game slate. Last week it was 10 games." [02:37]
• Guest Analyst: "I think David Montgomery is a contrary play because I see Gibbs coming in with higher ownership." [05:45]
• Meg Shaughnessy: "If you want to stack them with Tillman, you can stack him with more." [19:23]
• Mike McClure: "Alvin Kamara is going to get his touches." [22:43]
• Meg Shaughnessy: "I absolutely love Jameis this week to Cedric Tillman." [17:46]
• Guest Analyst: "Stacking them with Tillman, you can stack him with more." [20:57]

Final Thoughts

"Fantasy Football Today" continues to be an indispensable resource for DFS participants, blending expert analysis with actionable strategies. Whether you're a seasoned veteran or a newcomer aiming to gain the upper hand, this episode's detailed breakdown equips you with the knowledge to make informed and strategic decisions for Week 11.