Fantasy Football Today: NFL DFS Week 16 Preview – Detailed Summary
Release Date: December 20, 2024
Hosts and Panelists
- Sienna Joden (Host)
- Meg Shout (Analyst)
- Mike McCorm (Analyst)
1. Cleveland Browns vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Overview: The panel delves into the high-scoring matchup with a 47-point total between the Cleveland Browns and Cincinnati Bengals. Key discussions focus on quarterback strategies, player valuations, and DFS lineup considerations.
Key Points:
-
Quarterback Analysis:
-
Joe Burrow and Jamar Chase are acknowledged for their high value but come at a premium price.
-
Dorian Thompson-Robinson (DTR) is highlighted as a cost-effective alternative with rushing upside.
Mike McCorm [05:24]:
“I like Dorian Thompson-Robinson because of his rushing upside. Even in limited sample sizes, you’re looking at a solid floor with his rushing yards.”
-
-
Running Backs:
-
Jerome Ford is considered a valuable, low-priced option at 5,600, especially with Nick Chubb’s injury limiting the Browns' backfield.
Sienna Joden [06:44]:
“Jerome Ford at 5,600 could have tremendous value given the negative game script and limited options behind him.”
-
-
Team Strategies:
-
Emphasis on the potential for a heavy passing game, making Jamar Chase a focal point.
Mike McCorm [05:24]:
“Jamar Chase is likely to be force-fed targets, aiming for the triple crown with up to 15 targets.”
-
2. Detroit Lions vs. Chicago Bears
Overview: A 48-point total game featuring the Detroit Lions against the Chicago Bears is analyzed, with particular attention to Caleb Williams and the Bears' receiving corps.
Key Points:
-
Player Highlights:
-
Jameer Gibbs, Chuba Hubbard, and Caleb Williams are touted as primary targets.
-
Keenan Allen and DJ Moore are discussed as valuable wide receivers with differing volume potentials.
Mike McCorm [08:48]:
“Jameer Gibbs is essentially a free square this week. Even at 7,500, he should be a $9,000 player minimum with his expected role.”
-
-
DFS Strategies:
-
Stacking: Building lineups around Jameer Gibbs and Caleb Williams to maximize upside.
-
Contrarian Plays: Considering players like Sam Laporta for lower ownership with solid potential.
Meg Shout [10:41]:
“Stacking Jameer Gibbs with Sam Laporta can leverage the free square while keeping costs down.”
-
3. Tennessee Titans vs. Indianapolis Colts
Overview: The 42-point total game between the Titans and Colts is scrutinized, focusing on backup quarterbacks and budget-friendly options.
Key Points:
-
Quarterback Options:
-
Anthony Richardson presents upside despite questionable passing efficiency.
-
Mason Rudolph stepping in for Will Levis is discussed for value plays.
Meg Shout [16:19]:
“I’m personally not likely to play Anthony Richardson, despite his upside.”
-
-
Running Backs and Receivers:
-
Josh Downs and Calvin Ridley emerge as potential value picks.
-
Tight Ends like Chigo Conko are mentioned for their budget-friendly options.
Sienna Joden [18:23]:
“Anthony Richardson lineups have a low floor but a high ceiling, making them intriguing for tournaments.”
-
4. Arizona Cardinals vs. Carolina Panthers
Overview: A high-stakes 47-point game between the Arizona Cardinals and Carolina Panthers is evaluated, highlighting players like Bryce Young, Chuba Hubbard, and Jalen Cornwall.
Key Points:
-
Player Evaluations:
-
Bryce Young is considered despite the struggles of the Arizona offense.
-
Jalen Cornwall at 4,200 is noted for his affordability and potential volume.
Mike McCorm [21:51]:
“I’m more likely to go to the Coker side over Josh Downs in this matchup.”
-
-
DFS Considerations:
-
Balancing cost with potential upside, focusing on running backs and receivers who offer value without breaking the bank.
Meg Shout [23:05]:
“Keenan Allen and DJ Moore offer solid options, but the price points make it challenging to include both.”
-
5. Los Angeles Rams vs. New York Jets
Overview: The 44.5-point total game at 4:00 PM between the Rams and Jets is dissected, with discussions on running backs, quarterbacks, and potential stacks.
Key Points:
-
Running Backs:
-
Kyron Williams and Cooper Kupp are highlighted for their roles in the Rams' offense.
Meg Shout [25:59]:
“Kyron is a good running back option with high volume and trust from McVay.”
-
-
Quarterback Stacking:
-
Aaron Rodgers and Devonte Adams are considered for their cohesive stack potential.
Sienna Joden [27:03]:
“Aaron Rodgers double stacks can be effective due to the condensed target share.”
-
-
DFS Strategy:
-
Incorporating affordable receivers with high target potential to maximize budget efficiency.
Mike McCorm [36:12]:
“Brandon Strange is getting the target share and is a valuable play at his price point.”
-
6. Philadelphia Eagles vs. Washington Commanders
Overview: A divisional contest with a 45.5-point total between the Eagles and Commanders is analyzed, focusing on player performance and defensive considerations.
Key Points:
-
Player Highlights:
-
Saquon Barkley at 8,300 is noted for his high ownership and potential explosion.
-
Josh Allen is discussed for his solo playability despite team-wide challenges.
Mike McCorm [30:05]:
“Saquon Barkley’s ownership is around 10-12%, making him an intriguing play.”
-
-
DFS Strategies:
-
Leveraging high-upside players with lowered ownership to gain a competitive edge.
Meg Shout [31:41]:
“Ben Senate is a potential low-cost tight end, but I’m leaning towards more reliable options.”
-
7. Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Las Vegas Raiders
Overview: The matchup features a mix of budget tight ends and running backs, with a 47-point total.
Key Points:
-
Tight End Options:
-
Brandon Strange is praised for his target share at a manageable price.
-
Brian Thomas Jr. offers potential as a volume-based receiver.
Meg Shout [44:20]:
“Brandon Strange is a great value play and likely to garner significant ownership.”
-
-
DFS Strategies:
-
Incorporating cost-effective tight ends to free up budget for other positions.
Mike McCorm [45:18]:
“I’d lean towards playing Laporta and Strange together to maximize value.”
-
8. Minnesota Vikings vs. Seattle Seahawks
Overview: A low-scoring 43.5-point total game between the Vikings and Seahawks is discussed, with emphasis on running backs and wide receivers.
Key Points:
-
Player Evaluations:
-
Justin Jefferson and Juwan Jennings are noted for their high ownership and target potential.
-
Zach Charbonnet at 6K is considered based on his volume, pending injury status.
Mike McCorm [35:59]:
“Malik Neighbors is a solid play at 6,100, offering double-digit targets.”
-
-
DFS Considerations:
-
Monitoring injury statuses and their impact on player selection.
Mike McCorm [34:22]:
“If Zach Charbonnet plays, he could be a valuable asset at his price point.”
-
9. Buffalo Bills vs. New England Patriots
Overview: A high-spread game with a 45.5-point total is evaluated, focusing on Josh Allen and the Patriots’ defensive vulnerabilities.
Key Points:
-
Player Highlights:
-
Josh Allen at 8,700 is discussed for his potential but is considered a risky play due to team dynamics.
Sienna Joden [38:34]:
“Josh Allen is a complicated play because of how the game is set up.”
-
-
DFS Strategies:
-
Balancing high-cost quarterbacks with value players in other positions.
Meg Shout [39:48]:
“I’m leaning towards not playing Josh Allen due to the uncertain output.”
-
10. San Francisco 49ers vs. Miami Dolphins
Overview: A 44.5-point total game featuring the 49ers and Dolphins is scrutinized, highlighting receiver options and quarterback performances.
Key Points:
-
Player Evaluations:
-
Tyreek Hill at 6,900 is flagged for potential upside but comes with risk due to injuries.
-
Juwan Jennings and Devonte Adams are noted for their target shares.
Meg Shout [41:13]:
“Tyreek Hill is a 2A stack with high upside but also high risk.”
-
-
DFS Considerations:
-
Selecting receivers who can capitalize on limited quarterback play.
Mike McCorm [42:18]:
“Devonte Adams is fine in tournaments despite not being a core play.”
-
11. Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Las Vegas Raiders
(Note: This appears as a duplicate in the transcript. Refer to Section 7 for details.)
12. Showdown Highlight
Overview: The showdown features an unconventional matchup with the Chargers and Patriots, analyzed for DFS potential.
Key Points:
-
Player Highlights:
-
Cameron Dicker (Kicker) and Hunter Henry (RB) are highlighted as potential plays.
Mike McCorm [51:18]:
“I think Hunter Henry at 4,100 could be an interesting option.”
-
-
DFS Strategies:
-
Incorporating kickers and low-cost running backs to enhance lineup flexibility.
Sienna Joden [51:38]:
“Playing kicker Cameron Dicker can capitalize on the Chargers’ red zone efficiency issues.”
-
13. Cheat Sheets and Top Picks
Meg Shout’s Cheat Sheet:
- Stacks:
- Michael Penix with Drake London and Darnell Mooney.
- Aaron Rodgers double stack.
- Chalk Buys:
- Jameer Gibbs.
- Chalk Fade:
- Debo Samuel.
- Contrarian:
- Bijan Robinson or Saquon Barkley.
- Value Play:
- Brandon Strange (Cheap Tight End).
Mike McCorm’s Top Three Picks:
-
Quarterbacks:
- Caleb Williams
- Michael Penix
- Dorian Thompson-Robinson (DTR)
-
Wide Receivers:
- Keenan Allen
- Jalen Coker
- Jamar Chase
-
Tight Ends:
- Sam Laporta (4,700)
- Brandon Strange
- Trey McBride
14. Final Insights and Strategies
- Value Plays: Focus on affordable players with high upside to maximize budget efficiency.
- Stacking: Building lineups around high-performing stacks like Jameer Gibbs and Caleb Williams can yield significant returns.
- Contrarian Choices: Selecting lower-owned players who have the potential to outperform can differentiate lineups in tournaments.
- Monitoring Injuries: Keeping an eye on player health and their impact on game scripts is crucial for optimal DFS decisions.
Notable Quotes
-
Mike McCorm [05:24]:
“Any and everyone has put up points on the Cincinnati Bengals defense. With Dorian Thompson-Robinson, you get the added upside of the rush.” -
Meg Shout [10:41]:
“Stacking Jameer Gibbs with Sam Laporta can leverage the free square while keeping costs down.” -
Sienna Joden [45:41]:
“Trey McBride is a better choice over Brock Bowers due to his consistent target share.”
Conclusion
The panel provides a comprehensive analysis of Week 16's NFL DFS slate, offering valuable insights into player selections, stacking strategies, and budget management. Emphasizing the importance of value plays and informed stacking, the hosts equip listeners with the knowledge needed to dominate their leagues and excel in tournaments.
Disclaimer: Player prices and ownership percentages are subject to change based on ongoing team developments and are accurate as of the episode's release on December 20, 2024.