Fantasy Football Today: NFL DFS Week 18 Preview Released on January 4, 2025

Hosts:

• Adam Aizer
• Dave Richard
• Jamey Eisenberg
• Heath Cummings
• Crew Members: Mike McClure, Meg Shoup, and others

Episode Overview: In this comprehensive Week 18 preview of NFL Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS), the Fantasy Football Today team delves deep into the main slate lineups, player picks, stack strategies, and ownership trends. With the regular season nearing its end and the playoffs on the horizon, hosts provide invaluable insights to help listeners dominate their DFS contests.

1. Navigating a Quirky Week

Adam Aizer opens the discussion by acknowledging the unusual nature of Week 18, comparing it to an NFL preseason slate where unpredictability reigns due to position battles and incentives for players. He emphasizes the importance of adjusting DFS strategies accordingly.

• Dave Richard advises scaling back lineups unless one possesses "very, very valuable info and really hard takes on certain players" [02:01].

• Meg Shoup concurs, highlighting the concentrated ownership due to public awareness of contract incentives, such as Mike Evans nearing his 1,000-yard season [03:02].

Notable Quote:

"This is a very difficult situation to navigate... scale back a little bit unless you've got some very, very valuable info." – Dave Richard [02:01]

2. Game-by-Game Analysis

The team methodically breaks down each of the 13 games slated for Week 18, offering tailored DFS recommendations based on game dynamics, player incentives, and potential ownership concentrations.

a. Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. New Orleans Saints

• High Implied Total: 29 (43.5 points total)
• Key Picks:
  • Baker Mayfield, Mike Evans, Bucky Irving, and Jalen McMillan
• Strategy: Lean heavily into the Buccaneers' side due to their need to secure the division and playoff spot.

Notable Quote:

"The incentives are there both from securing the NFC South and actual incentives." – Dave Richard [05:28]

b. Carolina Panthers vs. Atlanta Falcons

• Implied Total: 28 (48 points total)
• Key Picks:
  • Bijan Robinson, Adam Thielen
• Strategy: Focus on Bijan Robinson as a chalk buy, given his role in the Falcons' offense.

Notable Quote:

"Bijan Robinson is the definition of a free square this week." – Dave Richard [11:10]

c. Washington Commanders vs. Dallas Cowboys

• Implied Total: 25 (44 points total)
• Key Picks:
  • Jaden Daniels, Zach Ertz
• Strategy: Target quarterbacks like Jaden Daniels due to lower ownership and potential high returns.

Notable Quote:

"If you want to isolate the receiver that he goes to, then I think it's fine." – Dave Richard [17:44]

d. Seattle Seahawks vs. Los Angeles Rams

• Implied Total: 23 (38.5 points total)
• Key Picks:
  • Blake Corum, Marvin Mims
• Strategy: Consider Marvin Mims as a contrarian play, anticipating high yardage despite conservative projections.

Notable Quote:

"Marvin Mims makes way too much sense to me, even though... it's an audition season." – Dave Richard [45:55]

e. San Francisco 49ers vs. Arizona Cardinals

• Implied Total: 42.5 points total
• Key Picks:
  • Josh Dobbs, Devonte Adams, Garrett Wilson
• Strategy: Stack Josh Dobbs with Devonte Adams to capitalize on potential explosive performances.

Notable Quote:

"Everything is an audition at this point." – Dave Richard [35:00]

f. Kansas City Chiefs vs. Denver Broncos

• Implied Total: 25 (44 points total)
• Key Picks:
  • Peyton Hendershot, Marvin Mims
• Strategy: Focus on the Broncos' passing game, especially Cortland Sutton and Marvin Mims.

Notable Quote:

"They are going to have to score. They're gonna go try to score." – Dave Richard [35:52]

Additional games were discussed with similar depth, focusing on player incentives, game scripts, and DFS strategies tailored to each matchup.

3. Cheat Sheets and Top Picks

The hosts present their cheat sheets, categorizing picks into Chalk Buy, Chalk Fade, Contrarian, and Value Plays.

• Chalk Buy:

  • Baker Mayfield, Mike Evans – Essential for high ownership stacks in must-win games.

• Chalk Fade:

  • Bijan Robinson – Expected to dominate due to his role and necessity for the Falcons to perform.

• Contrarian:

  • Marvin Mims – Offers high variance and can outperform conservative projections, ideal for differentiating lineups.

• Value Play:

  • Michael Carter – Priced at 4K, providing solid returns without impacting roster flexibility.

Top Three Picks by Position:

• Quarterback:

  1. Josh Dobbs – Low cost with rushing upside.
  2. Baker Mayfield – Reliable, especially in critical games.
  3. Aaron Rodgers – Potential high returns in an audition scenario.

• Running Back:

  1. Bucky Irving
  2. Bijan Robinson
  3. Michael Carter

• Wide Receiver:

  1. Mike Evans
  2. Jackson Smith
  3. Jigba

• Tight End:

  1. Peyton Hendershot – Speculative but valuable at 2.5K.
  2. Grant Carroll
  3. Brock Bowers – High ceiling with double-digit targets.

Notable Quote:

"Marvin Mims is absolutely smashing the 30 yard total almost every single game." – Adam Aizer [45:55]

4. Strategic Insights and Recommendations

• Scalability: Adam emphasizes the importance of adjusting lineup volumes based on the week's unpredictability, advising listeners to play lighter unless confident in their picks.

• Narrative Plays: The hosts discuss leveraging player incentives and contract scenarios, such as Aaron Rodgers potentially delivering a strong final performance.

• Stacking Strategies: Emphasizing the effectiveness of player stacks (e.g., Josh Dobbs with Devonte Adams) to maximize correlated scoring opportunities.

• Ownership Trends: Recognizing concentrated ownership in certain players due to public awareness, making contrarian picks like Marvin Mims advantageous for differentiation.

Notable Quote:

"You don't have to have your typical running backs... but just targeting players makes a lot of sense." – Adam Aizer [03:43]

5. Listener Engagement and Participation

Throughout the episode, the hosts interact with live chat participants, addressing listener questions and incorporating feedback from platforms like Twitter. They also mention participant contributions, such as tuning into specific games and providing shout-outs to active listeners.

Notable Interactions:

• Cousin Ernest inquires about the Dobbs-Jennings combo, receiving positive reinforcement to be patient and watch for development [11:44].

6. Closing Remarks and Future Previews

As the episode wraps up, the hosts remind listeners of the upcoming cheat sheets and tease playoff coverage. They encourage audience participation through reviews and engagement on YouTube and Twitter, reinforcing the podcast's commitment to supporting listeners in their DFS endeavors.

Notable Quote:

"This is the only podcast you'll need to win your league!" – Adam Aizer [50:18]

Conclusion: Week 18 presents unique challenges and opportunities for DFS enthusiasts. By leveraging player incentives, adjusting lineup volumes, and incorporating both chalk and contrarian strategies, listeners can optimize their DFS lineups to navigate the unpredictability of this final NFL week. The Fantasy Football Today team equips fans with the necessary tools and insights to make informed decisions, ensuring a competitive edge as the playoffs approach.

Additional Resources:

• Fantasy Football Today YouTube Channel: For live discussions and chat interactions.
• Podcast Reviews and Ratings: Encouraged to support and provide feedback.
• DFS Contest: A $5 entry contest available in the podcast description and chat.

Disclaimer: The information provided in this summary is based on the podcast transcript and is intended for entertainment and informational purposes only. Fantasy sports involve risk, and listeners should play responsibly.