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NFL DFS Week 18 Preview: Main Slate Lineups, Picks, Stacks and Ownership
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Host 1
What's up?
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Host 2
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Host 2
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Host 1
What'S up everyone and welcome to Fantasy Football Today. DFS coming at you on a Friday. Back to our Thursday schedule, I'm sure next week. Mike McClure, Meg Shoup it's probably best we're here on a Friday as opposed to a Thursday because if there's a week where things are not normal, this would be the week things get back to normal with the playoffs, of course. But I think we have to comment on this first before we get into 13 games slate. And by the way, thanks for joining us. If you're watching us live, that's great. Hit the like button if you're listening to the podcast. Really appreciate you listening. Go ahead and review the podcast if you can as well. We've got 13 games to go through. Got our cheat sheets, Mike's top three at each position and our contest is already in the chat and in the podcast description. So five bucks to enter the FFT DFS contest. But Mike, I do want to start with this quirky week. How are you approaching a week like this for me?
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Guest 3
See, it's one that I play a lot lighter so I, you know, some weeks I'll play up to 20 max lineups. I'll play five here and honestly about 25 of my normal volume, so quite a bit lower here. And if you're someone who's, you know, played a lot of DFS in general, not just NFL, this is the closest thing to like NBA preseason DFS or, or I guess NFL preseason in some sense in preseason NFL, you know Some of the position battles, though, now we're not even talking about position battles at this point. So it is stuff where you're going to have to monitor, you know, incentives for players, things like that. And then with that, in this day and age is going to come extremely concentrated ownership. So it's a very difficult situation to navigate. Obviously, we're going to do our best to do it, but my message would be scale back a little bit unless you, you've got some very, very valuable info and really hard takes on certain players.
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Host 1
So, Meg, I like how he closed that statement because we know that with the incentive talk and certain teams with things on the line like, like things are going to be concentrated in certain directions. We're going to touch on all of those players, of course. But I do think there's games that quote, like don't matter where you could like take a hard stance on, like, hey, just people aren't paying attention to this game. We know these quarterbacks are going to play. We know these receivers are going to play running backs and so on. And I just think, you know, I don't know if contrarian is the right word, but maybe it is. I think this is a decent week to follow the crowd on some things and just have a hard stance on other things. And I do agree with Mike. Maybe you don't unload the normal bankroll this week versus maybe next week or what you did last week. Right?
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Host 2
Yeah, I think Mike said everything perfectly. I think you summed it up perfectly. It really does remind me of an NFL preseason slate. And so I just think you need to adjust your volume bankroll accordingly. But yes. So your point, Sia? I think if you do have a really strong stance on whether it's a narrative or a contract incentive or something, I think now contract incentives are pretty public and people are pretty, pretty uber aware and that they may not have been as, as much several years ago. But I mean, if you do feel confident in something that you want to lean into a narrative, like I'm just making this up, but if you think this is Aaron Rodgers last game and he's going to put up a monster game, you know, I don't necessarily think I'm going to go that way, but those are the kind of things you could lean into if you felt comfortable. But yeah, to, to reiterate Mike's point, I think play what volume you're comfortable with because it is a very different week and very similar to NFL preseason.
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Host 1
All right, well, I do want to get started, but I do want to shout out Alan Prezig, Jason Reyes, Jeffrey Lightsey, Moshi dez, Cousin Ernest. Everybody in here, Robert Lamont, Richie Smalls, haven't seen you in a little bit. Hello, Richie Smalls. Thank you everybody. And thank you for. I think that's Tom Brady watching the show. That's really cool. Thank you for saying happy New Year. Thank you for joining the show. Thank you for being a part of this experience. And yes, this show is going through the playoffs, so we're not going anywhere. Let's start with a game that Meg, like you said, has some of these incentives, has, has something on the line at least for one of these teams. It's the Saints, it's the Buccaneers. I mean, we've got a really high implied total for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Right. I mean, and it's for good reason. It's close to 29. It's a, it's a 43 and a half point total. But a lot of those on the buccaneers side, they're 14 point favorites. I, I would think that you would think they'll have their foot on the pedal for most of this game because they have to secure their division, win their playoff spot. How you playing Buck Saints?
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Host 2
Yeah, I'm leaning into this heavily on, but I think a lot of people are too, but I'm leaning into the Buck side heavily. Obviously you're going to, again, you're going to have ownership with Baker Mayfield, Mike Evans, Bucky irving, even Jaylen McMillan across the board. But you know, the, the incentives are there both from a, again, securing the NFC south and actual incentives. As we know, the most public one is, or I think the most one that everyone is super aware of is Mike Evans, of course, getting that 1,000 yard season. And he's very close to that, I believe 85 yards somewhere around there. So there are some incentives for Baker Mayfield as well. I was reading up on that. I mean, he'd have to have a massive game from a touchdown pass perspective, but we saw what he did last week that's always in play. But he has incentives related to his, I believe, completion percentage and rating and, and stuff like that. So I just, I'm leaning into Baker Mayfield, Mike Evans at work last week. I want to go back to that. And of course, if you want to add Bucky Irving, if you want to add Jalen McMillan, I don't mind that. So just love the Bucks here.
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Host 1
Overall, Meg, wasn't Baker and, and Mike Evans, your, your favorite last week?
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Host 2
It was, it was.
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Host 1
Well, stay tuned for Meg's Cheat sheet Because that worked out well. I had Anthony Richardson. Of course I had to pivot from that because I had Anthony Richardson to Josh Downs who didn't do anything. People asked me on Twitter. I did end up pivoting to the Sam Darnold stack, which was good. Just not quite as good as your stack. Megan in Baker Mayfield. But I did play a lot of Baker Mayfield lineups too. So Jalen McMillan, Mike Evans, Payne Durham getting in the mix. Bucky Irving too. Mike, I assume you're not playing any Saints. Talk to me about, talk to me about the Buckside and whether you're invested in this one.
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Guest 3
Yeah, no Saints, but definitely Buckside going to be playing Bucky Irving again. We fortunately had a great week with him despite not getting in the end zone last week, laddering up to 150 on the rushing receiving combos. I think that's in play again here. I think the concern with Bucky would just simply be if they're up by, you know, three touchdowns at halftime, if they do nurse him a little bit because he has been dealing with a few injuries. I mean obviously a lot of players are at this point, but being a rookie and wanting, he's critical for them in a playoff run. So something I would monitor there. But I, I like Evans, I like Baker. Like I think you could full on onslaught. My best lineup last week was a full on Tampa onslaught and I think that that's very much in play. No interest in the Saints side though. But for me primary piece would be Bucky can play him without anyone else and then full on Baker, Evans, Bucky and probably one other.
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Host 1
Yeah, I know there's Jeffrey Lightsey says just to be different and contrarian. He wants to look at Rashad White. I just think he's sort of the odd man out here. I think it is Bucky Irving. But if you want to take that stance like I get it. The thing is, if this is a blowout, and I know that's not why you're saying play Rashad White. It's probably Sean Tucker that. That comes in like in the fourth quarter and racks up some stuff. So I do think it's Bucky Irving, Mike Evans and then Jaylen McMillan and Payne Durham certainly in the conversation, in my opinion and obviously Baker as well. All right, let's move on to. We got to cover a lot of games. Thirteen, eight in the. The early, the early window, five in the late window. Don't forget you can play these early and late slates if you have a take and you just want to zero in early or afternoon slate. But Bills, Patriots, there's just not much to talk about in this game, in my opinion. It's a 37 and a half point total high. There's no, like, the implied total for the bills is only 20. Mitch Trubisky is starting Mike. I mean, do we just move on? Like, I, I don't really see any reason. I'm looking at the names here that are in play. There's value across the board. With so many people sitting out, this is not the game to target. Right.
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Guest 3
Yeah, I don't think I'll be having anything in this one. Still trying to, to look through a lot to sort through, but I, I don't see much, if anything, here. I'm trying to find for. Yeah, the Buffalo defense still the first piece that I get through, and that's pretty far down the board.
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Host 1
Fair enough. All right. We do have a decent amount of people watching. Hit the like button. Like, like Grant Marshall says in the chat. And if you're watching us on Twitter, that's great. Keep watching us on Twitter. But if you want to get involved in the chat, come over to the Fantasy Football Today YouTube channel and get involved in the chat. Honestly, Meg, I think we can move on from this game. Right?
- [09:38]
Host 2
Yeah, I'm with you. Move on and pass.
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Host 1
Okay, let's go to a game that does have some potential implications. We're going to the Carolina Panthers, the Atlanta Falcons. Sorry, I probably put this in the wrong order, but we are going to the Carolina Panthers and the Atlanta Falcons. Panthers plus eight. 48 point total. Now, talk about another implied total. Like the Tampa Bay buccaneers. That was 29. This one's 28, Meg. And it makes sense. Falcons, really, they need Tampa to lose, which we kind of know is not going to happen here. But Falcons are going to go full bore here. Michael Penix, 5400. Bajan Robinson, who I suspect is going to be popular at 8, 500. And then you got the receiver Corn and Drake London, Darnell Mooney. And then of course, Kyle Pitts, Ray. Ray McLeod. I don't. I, I think you could play both sides of this, Meg. I think Adam Thielen is definitely in play. Maybe Jalen Coker. But to me, for me, it's Bijan Robinson and Get out. Maybe Adam Thielen.
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Host 2
I'm lockstep with you. I. Bijan Robinson, I really do like as, as a, as a chalky buy. And so I'm very interest. We saw what he did last week then, and how the Falcons leaned on Him. And I think they'll do the same here. Yeah. The concerns always. If they look up at the scoreboard and Bucks are up by four touchdowns, you know, do they take the pedal off the gas? But I, I really do like Bijan here, and I'm leaning heavily into that. And then I, I get your point on Thielen and Coker. They would probably. I'm not going to force any run back like with a skinny Bijan Robinson, but I get. I get the case for either of those plays.
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Host 1
Yeah. Mike, is this a situation with so much value on the board where you're just jamming in Bijan Robinson and calling it a day on this game?
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Guest 3
Definitely. Definitely. When I, When I run and tell the computer to build 2, 000 lineups, he is in 92 of them. Yeah. He is the definition of a free square this week.
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Host 1
Very interesting. Free squares aren't usually 8, 500, but this week they are. Would you. I mean, I don't know if you're. If your simulations pull up any adam Thielen. He's 6200. I don't know that I'd want to get involved in the Leggett Coker more sweepstakes or Jatavion Sanders. Thielen does make a little bit of sense. What do you think about him at 6200?
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Guest 3
I don't mind it if you want to, you know, think they're gonna push. And it obviously would certainly help Bijan. I'm not getting a ton right now, but this is a. A week where I don't think I'll really have any game stacks. I think it'll just be because of the concentration. I think it'll literally just be finding the spots you like and playing them all together.
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Host 1
Yeah. I think this is a game where you can kind of buck convention because of the. The situation here. You don't have to have your typical run backs. You don't have to have that on. On any week, really. But I think just building for. Just targeting players and not necessarily stacks or at least targeting stacks on one side but not necessarily the other makes a lot of sense. Cousin Ernest says any interest in Dobbs Jennings combo? Answer to that is yes. So Cousin Ernest, be patient, wait for that game. Because Joshua Dobbs, I'm a big Joshua Dobbs guy. He's exciting to me and he will be coming up as a potential play later on in the show. Meg, I went to you on Atlanta, Right. So we can go to the Giants and the Eagles. Another game where I don't have a ton of interest. Shout out to Drew Locke for like kind of messing up the New York Giants plans. But like that's not his fault. He had a really great career game for him, which I think was kind of funny given the timing. Malik neighbors 7 100. Drew Locke 5100. We got Tyrone Tracy in here. Not a lot of interest on the other side. And we got Will Shipley and Kenneth Gainwell probably sharing some running back duties. This is a game that with low implied point totals on each side. Mike, I'll start with you. This is a game I'm out on. I mean Malik Neighbors, I get. I'm still out on it.
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Guest 3
Yeah, Neighbors is fine. Projects pretty well. Wouldn't shock me if it busts in that particular spot. Both defenses, some of the lineups I'm building right now actually play the Giants defense in this one, obviously not a fun click, but it's one at 2400. Makes everything work. Because I'll give you a little preview of like a core that I'm building around. Bijan Robinson, Bucky Irving, Mike Evans, Devonte Adams, all again, very expensive. You'd never be able to play them all in the same lineup on a normal week, but when you've got 4k players at quarterback and 2400 defenses, it works pretty easily. So I, I like, I like Giants defense.
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Host 1
Okay. Yeah, Giants defense, certainly inexpensive. Meg, your thoughts on this game? There's some questions with, with DEZ here and I don't think we know the answer to all of these questions yet, but Will Shipley, Kenny Gainwell. Like I think Kenny Gainwell's getting some steam here, but it would seem to me Kenny Gainwell's pretty involved in, in like real games for them.
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Host 2
Right?
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Host 1
So it would seem to me like why not like ship out. No pun intended. Literally no pun intended. But Will Shipley, I mean I TDP is on the Tyrion Davis price is on this team. Like I don't know why you'd use Kenny Gainwell in a big role in a game that doesn't matter since he's a part of this kind of regular offense. Your thoughts on the any side of this game?
- [14:41]
Host 2
There's another cheap running back that I'll probably play have more interest in. But I do get the case for Will Shipley here at his price point. So I would, I would say him. Sure you could make a case for Neighbors, but there's other spend up options that I'll likely go to. So really it like Mike said, it's probably the defenses and he makes a great point about the Giants defense likely going against looks like Tanner McKee, I believe, for Eagles. So I get that and I get the case for Shipley. And other than that, I don't think you forced much else here.
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Host 1
Yeah, and this is, this is a good game to kind of note. We do need to be tuned into because I do think some of these coaches are like, some will lie to us, but some will declare like who's playing and who's not. So you do have to. To kind of tune in today. Practice reports are going to be really important for some of these games, but also just what the coaches say is going to be really important for. Especially for some of these games where there's really no implications as it pertains to the playoffs. All right, we do have an implication game here. The Washington Commanders at the Dallas Cowboys. The commanders really want to lock up that six seed because they don't want to play the Eagles in the first round. They prefer to play the Rams or the Buccaneers for obvious reasons. We got a 44 point total. Meg, I'll start with you. The implied total for Washington is 25. This is an interesting spot in my opinion because there's so much value at every single position and there's so many good plays with teams that have a ton on the line. Like people have brought up Bo Nix, for example, Baker Mayfield. We'll talk about Bo Nicks later. There's a lot of quarterbacks you can play. I just think it's interesting at least that I don't think people are going to play Jaden Daniels. And I'm not looking at ownership in this moment. He's 7,800. Like, I think a lot of people think, well, they've kind of locked up their spot. Maybe, you know, it's. It's the pedals off. You know, the foot is off the pedal a little bit. I think he's an interesting play anyway. Do you like anybody in this game?
- [16:24]
Host 2
I definitely think you can make a case for Jaden Daniels especially come if he's coming in at lower ownership, you have to pay a high price. But that's likely why people won't do it as much. So if you want to get a little ownership leverage on a game that still obviously matters, again, if they go up by a very large margin, then maybe, maybe they do pull back a bit or, you know, maybe he doesn't get a full game if they really, really blow out the Cowboys. But I think if that is the case, he would likely be a big part of that. So I definitely see the case for Jaden Daniels. I know Zach Ertz has a lot of incentives. He certainly helped them secure the playoffs in the Sunday night win. So maybe they feed him a little bit more. He's 4k, so I don't mind going to Zachary whether you wanted to pair him with Jaden Daniels or not. Other than that, I don't think I'm going to get too much in this game, but those are the two that I have some interest in.
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Host 1
Mike, I'll say this about the Cowboys side. We don't know how much Trey Lance is going to play or you know, what, what that. That dynamic is going to be with Cooper Rush and Trey Lance, which is why I don't want to play. I don't want to speculate on any Cowboys. I think the Cowboys will be relatively competitive, at least for some time in this game. So I, I could see the argument for Cooks or Tolbert or even Kevonte Turpin or Jake Ferguson. Rico Dowdle, It's a no for me because of that quarterback situation. On the other side, I think Earth's incentives are a little out of reach just based on what I saw. With that said, he's only 4K and he's a primary target for Jaden Daniels. Mike, any interest in this game?
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Guest 3
Not a ton. I mean, I could, I could make the case for Jaden. I think that the Dallas Cowboys could push enough to where Jaden has to, you know, put 28 points on the board. And there's certainly a scenario where he has a rushing touchdown and three passing touchdowns like that. That's definitely within the range here. He's expensive. I prefer to play a 4K quarterback this week, but yeah, if you can isolate the. The receiver that it goes to, then I think it's fine. Not going to be my primary play, but would be the first piece in the game would be Jaden for sure.
- [18:19]
Host 1
All right, I'm not playing Brian Robinson, by the way. Shout out to Chris Rodriguez, who looked like an absolute bowling ball in that game last week and then got a touchdown where you thought the guy was going to go down. Stole some carries from Brian Robinson in that one. You mentioned 4K quarterback. Very interesting. Well, we got to get to other quarterbacks, including a 4K quarterback that I like as well. We're going to do it right after this message from our partners.
- [18:41]
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- [20:38]
Host 1
We're back on Fantasy Football Today. DFS again. If you're watching us on Twitter, thank you for watching. Hit the like button there. Hit the like button here. But if you want to join us on YouTube, come over to the Fantasy Football Today YouTube channel. All right, let's go Bears. Packers. Mike, I don't have a lot of interest in this one. Bears are getting 10 points. The packers do have a 25 and a half point, you know, almost a 26 point implied total here. I, I, you know, I don't know exactly who they're trotting out. I mean, I, I do think, you know, with that Washington situation, they do Technically have stuff to play for here, but I, I don't. This is just not a game I'm interested in. Mike, how you looking at this one?
- [21:15]
Guest 3
Yeah, another game, not a lot of interest. I could play the packers defense if you want. I, I think it's fine. Other than that, I'm really not getting anywhere. You know, it's not necessarily fun for some of the analysis, but, like, my action is essentially narrowed down to three teams. Every player is coming from one of three teams in pretty much all my lineups. So I, I don't. Don't have a ton of interest here outside of maybe again, a defense.
- [21:45]
Host 1
Fair enough. Meg. This game, I, you know, I heard some, I heard some talk about Josh Jacobs maybe not getting his full workload. I think that was actually talked from Josh Jacobs himself. But forgive me, I didn't actually follow up on, on those comments and HEAR what Matt LaFleur might have had to say about that. But again, it's a nice high total, but we've got high implied totals for a lot of teams. This just is not a one, especially with, you know, I don't know what's going on with Josh Jacobs, but this receiver core, they're all relatively healthy and you don't know who it's going to. I don't want to play any Bears, although I do think. I'll say this. I think it's sneaky to play. Nobody's going to play Caleb Williams, I don't think, and stack him with one or two receivers and, And Caleb Williams still feels like he has a lot to prove. There's no, there's not going to be any precipitation in this game. The weather should be okay. It's gonna be cold, but I don't know. I guess Caleb Williams would be kind of sneaky, but it's a no for me in this game.
- [22:33]
Host 2
Yeah. No for me as well. And yeah, it looks like the Josh Jacobs, he's just kind of acknowledging that he's not going to get his full workload, from what I can tell. And, and likely if they look up at the scoreboard in Washington's up by three or four scores, why would they push it when they're going to be playing, you know, possibly next Saturday? So I get all that and don't have a lot of interest here as well. I get the case for packers defense with the amount of sacks that Caleb is taking.
- [22:59]
Host 1
So, yeah, tough year for Caleb Williams and Bears fans. All right, let's move on then. Again, 13 games to cover. We don't have to Deep dive into games we're not going to play and you're likely not going to play either. Jaguars and the Colts. 44 point total, Jags getting five points. Dome environment that's at least noteworthy. 24 implied total for the Colts. It's not terrible. About 20 for the Jaguars. That's pretty standard. Joe flacco starting at 5,400. Meg, I think a lot of people are interested in playing Joe Flacco and you know, pairing him with Michael Pittman or maybe Josh Downs in, in sort of a potential bounce back spot on the other side. It's hard to get away from Brian Thomas no matter what his price is. Oh, by the way, it's 7300. Mac Jones, 5200. I don't know that there's anybody else I'd want to play on that side or do you have any interest in some of these guys like Brian Thomas, Michael Pittman, maybe Josh Downs, Flacco? All I think are intriguing.
- [23:49]
Host 2
I do agree that all are intriguing. I just don't. And by the way, I've loved playing Brian Thomas recently. That has just been a fun experiment experience, I should say. So I, I just don't know that I'll get here. Again, to Mike's point, we're targeting other games, other game environments and just don't see me getting there for that reason. But if you, if you said you wanted to play Brian Thomas and again you have a strong stand that he's going to just end his rookie season with a bang, I don't mind that at all.
- [24:16]
Host 1
Yeah, Mike, the sentimental play is, maybe it's Flacco's last game. You pair him with one of two receivers, you just try to take a chance on Pitman and Downs and you run it back with Brian Thomas. That would be like the conventional normal week type of play. But this isn't a normal week. Are you getting to this stack or any players?
- [24:34]
Guest 3
The first piece that I could get to would be Josh Downs. I'm fine taking a shot there. The price point's kind of middling. It's, you know, a horrible performance in the last game and really in 3 of the last 4. So I, I like that spot for him a little bit. Certainly not my favorite game. But I, I think you could do worse in the mid range than Josh Downs. So he would be piece number one for me.
- [24:55]
Host 1
Yeah, we know he can be explosive but wow, did Pitman out target him and outperform him last week. But you never know. Week to week things are different. All right, I Think we can move on to the next 1:00 game one. That probably won't have a ton of interest. We're probably not going to see a ton of starters. I mean, we'll have to wait and see. It's the Texans. It's the Titans 37 point total. Neither of these implied totals reach 20. So that kind of tells you all you need to know. Mason Rudolph and Will Levis probably playing on the Tennessee side. I don't know who's running the ball. I don't know if I know Pollard has incentives. I don't know if he's healthy. Doesn't look like Tajie Spears is playing. Julius Chestnut would be the backup. If they're both apple, we got to wait on news there. Calvin Ridley, we got Nico Collins on the other side. Again, I don't know how much any of these players are playing. Either way, I don't have any interest. Mike, I'll start with you. Any thoughts on this?
- [25:44]
Guest 3
One complete stay away from me. The Texans are going to play their guys that play the guys. Could be one series, it could be three. They're definitely not playing in the second half of the game. I personally think that they're literally just running them out. They're going to give them a series, maybe two, just like a preseason game to keep them in the flow of having to go through the process of playing a game and getting in, preparing for a game. But I am expecting all of the Texan starters to be out of the game, you know, by the end of the first quarter. So that is enough that it takes away a lot of opportunities where you want to speculate on some of the cheaper guys and just not quite enough unless you. You think we get the 70 yarder to Nico that lands in the end zone early. So for me, just completely off here.
- [26:32]
Host 1
Meg, you agree I'm definitely off the.
- [26:34]
Host 2
Texan side for everything that Mike said. I want to keep paying attention to the Pollard news. If Taji Spears is out, they and the news seems that that Pollard will get a workload. He does. The incentives are there, are attainable. So I do have some interest because it's not like the price is too prohibitive. So I do have some interest in Pollard and paying attention to that news. Does it sound like closer to game time that he will get a a workload and a chance to meet these incentives? If so, he'll be in my pool.
- [27:01]
Host 1
So Meg, if memory serves, you are the Chiga conquer whisperer. Any thoughts on him at 3800? It's still under 4k, which is. Is. Which is kind of nice considering the volume he gets. Now. If we're rotating quarterbacks, that could actually hurt him, in my opinion. But still 3,800. I mean, he could. He could see seven targets and catch five of them quite easily.
- [27:17]
Host 2
Yeah. Love Chicka Kwankwo. The light here in the season has paid off. And love the cheap tight end, so I definitely could see chicka conquo in my player pool for that reason.
- [27:27]
Host 1
All right, Jason Murray, you have a non DFS question, but I feel compelled to answer it because it's just. It's an easy one, in my opinion. Jalen McMillan, Jameson Williams, or Malik Neighbors. Pick two. It would definitely be Jameson Williams in that absolute shootout Sunday night and Malik Neighbors. So I like Jalen McMillan's having a nice season, but the volume that those other two are going to get and. And what they can do after the catch, far more impressive than what we'll see from Jalen McMillan, in my opinion. But then again, I mean, do you all agree like Jade McMillan. But Baker's gonna throw it around. I get that. But I still would play Jameson and Malik Neighbors. What about you two? Meg, start.
- [28:00]
Host 2
I initially thought lean to the two guys that are really playing for something. And I was gonna, but. But I get your case. I mean, Neighbors has been getting an insane workload. So, yeah, I. I know that was a little bit of a hedge, but definitely Jameson Williams. I will say that, Mike.
- [28:14]
Host 1
Yeah.
- [28:15]
Guest 3
Only I'll keep Neighbors in there just because the volume and it's. You know, he's obviously super talented. I think that at this point, they want to. And he individually wants to just stay. Just rack up as many stats as you possibly can. So I think that that's good for his future, you know, career earnings, things like that, to just be. Be as good as possible early. So I'll lean Neighbors there. Definitely Jameson Williams, though.
- [28:40]
Host 1
Yeah, for sure. All right, let's go to the first of five, 425 games. These are all at 425, as opposed to 405, for whatever that's worth, if you want to consider late swap and things like that. Seattle at Los Angeles, pretty pedestrian total here. We're looking at 38 and a half. I mean, we. Seahawks favored by six and a half. Rams not playing anybody. Meg, I'll start with you. I think Blake Corum is interesting, although I could see him because he is somewhat involved in the regular game plan. I could see him maybe seating carries to like somebody like Ronnie Rivers or another backup Running back, so I don't know that I'm going to get to a 5600. Blake Corm, Jordan Whittington is coming up. In a lot of conversations. I happen to think Tyler Johnson, with Whittington kind of questionable, is an interesting play here. I don't know. I don't have a lot of interest in this game. Jsn on the other side, Geno Smith has some incentives. DK Metcalf, they're all reasonably priced. How you play in this one?
- [29:33]
Host 2
Yeah, I did see the Seattle incentives. Don't know if I'll get there. I do have some interest in Blake Corum. There was some good Coach speak from McVeigh, just wanting to see Corum and a longer look at him and, you know, so I do have some interest in Quorum, and I think from what I'm seeing in ownership, I think the public likely will as well. But no, I. I do have some interest in corn.
- [29:55]
Host 1
Okay, Mike, any interest in anybody in this game?
- [29:58]
Guest 3
I'm getting a little too. Too Atwell just kind of thrown in there. Out of all the receivers there, I think he's been in the system for quite a while. Not someone that, you know, when they're healthy, is really in the big mix of things. So I think that he could be someone that's out there a lot and active here.
- [30:16]
Host 1
Yeah. And Geno Smith. I know Greg Goose Hayes is mentioning Geno's incentives. I think I'm trying to remember at least a bulk of it was he needed 200 and something. Something in the 250, 260 range, passing yards. I would imagine he goes after that. He's only 5,500. Are we potentially overlooking, like, a Geno JSN stack, Mike?
- [30:36]
Guest 3
Maybe a little. I would probably just play the JSN leg of it and still take the cheaper quarterbacks elsewhere just to save $2,000. But, yeah, yeah, I think there's definitely the scenario where Gino gets it all. Now, I'd say if Gino gets it all and hits those incentives, I would still think that JSN is likely the guy that carries them there.
- [30:57]
Host 1
All right, Meg, your thoughts on that?
- [30:58]
Host 2
Yeah, I just was double checking. It looks like he needs 185 for another oh, my bad million. So that's kind of, you know, nothing. You know, that that would make me point to Gino. I didn't see any touchdown incentives, so for that reason, I don't know that I'd push it.
- [31:14]
Host 1
It's interesting the. The logic there, because we know he's going to push for the 185. Right. So if he's going to be pushing for that, like, I don't know that he's going to like stop pushing once he hits, I imagine, right. He's airing it out all game. But we don't know that. Right. So it is a speculative play. But I, I think, I appreciate Gregory's pointing that out because I do think, yeah, I like other quarterbacks. But, but I get the Geno Smith argument and I get what Mike said about just playing the JSN side of it and just hoping that JSN is getting the bulk of that 185 plus that we're likely to see from Geno Smith. Really interesting game. I, I think we have to keep our ear to the ground on the Ram side specifically, especially when it comes to those wide receivers like Tutu Atwell, Jordan Whittington, Tyler Johnson. All right, let's go to the Niners and the Cardinals. Mike, you said you like a 4k running back. I haven't looked at your top three at each position, so I like, I will look at it in a second. But, but is Josh Dobbs in your top three? Is that the 4K quarterback you were talking about?
- [32:08]
Guest 3
Josh Dobbs is the guy I, I like Dobbs here at 4K. I think he's a good backup. I think the situation is great in a dome at Arizona. Yeah, he's going to be the quarterback I play the most by, by a wide margin.
- [32:21]
Host 1
This is interesting too because the implied total, I mean this is a game that has only has a 42 1/2 point total. Cardinals favored by 4. Implied total for the Niners is only, you know, it's not even 20. It's, it's just under 20 here. So I, I think that's interesting. But Mike, I like Joshua Dobbs too. And I like, I don't think, like, I don't think you have to pair Joshua Dobbs with anybody necessarily. But I mean, I was big on Ricky Pierce all last week. I had his over. I told everybody to ladder him and he had 147 yards. So it wouldn't shock me if they at least try. I know it's Joshua Dobbs. It's a different quarterback. Try to showcase him. He's only 4100. I, I like Dobbs to Pearsall. And as far as a run back, I think Michael Carter, even though we're talking about a running back run back, I think Michael Carter makes a lot of sense probably out on everybody else. Including Trey McBride. But I could see myself getting to Trey McBride too. How you playing this game?
- [33:09]
Host 2
Definitely Michael Carter as the cheap running back. I have, I do have an interest there. He should get a bulk of the workload. Don't have an interest in Trey McBride. Still seen ownership there. And, and I'm just not going to play an expensive tight end with ownership. So. So for me it would be, it would be the Carter on the, on the Cardinals side and then I get, I get the capes for Dobbs. And I like the Pearsall call too. So if you do Dobbs, Pearsall as, as the stack there, I like that side a lot.
- [33:38]
Host 1
Okay, quick, quick thing, Mike. I want to. I have a follow up for you on Joshua Dobbs, but Joe Everett says, and I think somebody else might have said this too, if Gino gets a win, he also gets another 2 million. So he has the, he has the yardage incentive. He has the win incentive, which would be reason for him to keep the pedal down and just air it out. Like, let me. Let's just crush this team. So that, that is interesting. I think I, I have to have him in consideration now where he wasn't in consideration before. So thank you again, everybody. With this week. We're not going to have our. You all are helping us too this week a little bit because some of these are going to slip through the cracks. There's so much stuff going on here. Mike, if you play Joshua Dobbs, you might have already said this. Are you pairing him with anybody?
- [34:16]
Guest 3
I will play him without a handcuff of any kind at times, but I could definitely still play Ricky Piersoll or Jennings.
- [34:24]
Host 1
Yeah.
- [34:24]
Guest 3
In there. And I'll definitely have Carter on the other side in the Dobbs lineups.
- [34:29]
Host 1
We'll have to see what goes on with Kittle and specifically Debo because I thought I heard some rumblings about Debo maybe taking a back seat in this one. So keep that in mind. Anything else, Meg, to talk about in this game? Like, this is a, this is a stack I like you mentioned Michael Carter. Are you in or out on a 6500? Trey McBride.
- [34:45]
Host 2
Definitely out on Trey McBride. Again. I'm seeing some ownership there for me. I'm out.
- [34:50]
Guest 3
Yeah, I'd say I think Debo is not going to play in this game, to be honest with you. We'll see. You know, didn't practice at all on Thursday. I think there's a really good chance he doesn't play in this game.
- [35:01]
Host 1
All right. Marvin Harrison, 5500. Michael Wilson 4K, probably not getting there. I don't hate either play personally. All right, let's go to your Kansas City Chiefs. Mike against the Denver Broncos. Another kind of interesting game because Broncos need to win. Kansas City sitting all their. Well, sitting a lot of their guys, not all their guys. I do think the Broncos are going to be popular for obvious reasons. They do have a reasonable implied total of 25. Again, favored by 10 and a half in this game. Bo Nix is 6400. Cortland Sutton is 6400. Marvin Mims is 4600. I mean, those three right there actually really, those two, Bo Nix to Sutton I think are going to be really popular. Avoiding the run game there, Mike. How you playing this game? I mean, I, I know your Chiefs are rolling out a lot of backups. You think they're going to lay down and do you think the Broncos are going to have to keep their foot on the gas a little bit and pepper targets like Sutton and Mibs, for example?
- [35:52]
Guest 3
I think they're definitely going to lay down. I, I don't think Kansas City wants to win this game at all. I think they prefer to definitely lose this game. I think that they will intentionally lose the game if it comes to it at the end. And the reason is pretty clear and simple, like the, the Bengals, especially as the defense improves. They're one of the six best teams in the NFL and you're not letting Joe burrow into the playoffs if you don't have the opportunity to. So I, I'd much rather face a rookie quarterback. I think City understands that and knows that because in the past, this is a spot where Kansas City would play their guys at least a couple series to keep everything fresh. They're not doing that here in this particular spot. So as far as guys I like in the game, I think any of the Broncos are, are fine. They're. They're gonna have to score. They're gonna go try to score. On the chief side, Peyton Hindershot, someone that I have some interest in at tight end. I, I still think that, that Carson Wentz is a good quarterback, to be honest with you. I think he probably should be a starting quarterback in the NFL. So I like Peyton Hendershot at 2500. It's extremely speculative, but at that price point that, that's my first interest in this game.
- [37:01]
Host 1
Let me ask you this, Mike, real quick. Before we transition to Meg, is there a receiver that you think will be on the field, like, for example, a Juju Smith Schuster at 3700 or Justin Watson at 3500 that maybe we can expect, expect to get four or five targets in this game.
- [37:16]
Guest 3
It's going to be extremely, extremely speculative here, but I forgot I was posing. Nico is the guy, he's the punt returner. He's been returning punts, got called up from the practice squad. He is the guy that I expect to get the most and then Justin Ross would be someone that I think is going to be out there as well.
- [37:37]
Host 1
Wow.
- [37:39]
Guest 3
You know Noah Gray. Look, maybe I still think Noah Gray is an extremely important part of this team the way he is. I, I personally think it'll be hindershot that if they're throwing to tight ends. But yeah, I, I fully expect absolute tank job in terms of not letting anyone that's remotely important play in this game.
- [38:00]
Host 1
Yeah, I think it might be pronounced Nico Ramigio. He's a flat 3k. I could be wrong in the pronunciation, but yeah, it, this is a game to make like really kind of tune into because if you can, if you, if, if Nico Ramigio is starting and he's going to get a lot of targets because he's Nico Ramigio and He's a flat 3K, that opens a lot of things up. It gets off maybe some other chalk that people are going to have like for the Rams receivers, for example. Meg, how you playing this one?
- [38:23]
Host 2
Well, first of all, Mike is. Anytime you can sell me on a punt price tight end, I'm in. So I'm in the. I'm into the Hendershot play now but I have a lot of interest obviously on the Denver passing game. So I like Nick Sutton and I think I'm seeing this now. I'm not seeing any ownership on Mims. We saw how, you know, integral he was last week in, in the game against the Bengals. Why wouldn't he be this week to try to seal the playoffs? So he's explosive. I really like men's at Mims. If he's coming in at loan ownership, I really like him at his price.
- [38:54]
Host 1
He is and I actually. Well, the reason he's coming on low ownership is because optimizers are factoring in his receiving yards total which is only 29 and a half for some reason. So he's just not popping. But I think his, I honestly think, and I know it's a weird game and a 10 point, you know, spread and all that stuff. If you look at his stat line over the last six games, it's astounding. He is absolutely smashing the 30 yard total almost every Single game, his targets are going up. I think he's the trusted number two. I know Devon Bailey is, is a guy there as well, but Mims is getting the work, so I don't know what else to say. I think Marvin Mims is really sneaky, especially from a betting standpoint.
- [39:29]
Host 2
Yeah.
- [39:29]
Host 1
All right, let's move on. We've got like see one, two more games to cover and then we'll get to our cheat sheet. We're going to run through these two really fast because I just don't think there's a lot of DFS promise here. Chargers, Raiders. Chargers four and a half point favorite. Implied totals pretty low for both teams. Chargers at 23. Raiders nearly 19. Mike, I'll start with you. I'm not playing anybody in this game. Brock Bowers makes sense at 6600. I totally get it. I'm probably not getting there on the other side. We're not even sure right now if the Chargers are going to have to really play this game. I think we have to wait for Saturday for that. But I'm out on, on the Chargers as well. Mike, what. What say you?
- [40:05]
Guest 3
Yeah, I would need more info on outcomes to see what the Chargers actually need here. If you want to play Brock Bowers, I think it's fine. If you want to make that one of your spins. I'm not going to personally, but that would be the first piece here for me. Other than that, I think I'm completely off.
- [40:23]
Host 1
Yeah, Meg, I mean Amir Abdullah, he's been pretty impressive. We know Jacoby Myers and Bowers have been impressive as well. But I just on this slate, I just don't think I'm getting here with any Raiders. What say you?
- [40:34]
Host 2
Yeah, similar to the neighbors thing, if he wants to like end his season with an exclamation point or Brian Thomas Jr. I get it. I mean he certainly could, you know, putting more receptions to that total. I totally get it. Don't mind like the Abdullah has been kind of coming through as a cheap play but really I think it's just paying attention to the results of the Steelers game. If the Steelers lose on Saturday night, then we do have interest in the Chargers because obviously Harbaugh has all the interest in the world to not play his brother in the first round and play the the Texans which seems like a just pass, you know, collect to collect to the next round and, and move on to beat the Texans. So I think there will be, I guess if Steelers lose, I'll have a ton of interest in, in the Chargers. I know Dobbits has a lot of incentives, but obviously the incentive would be to win and to play the Texans. So all comes down to that. For me, if. If Steelers lose, I'm in on the Chargers stacks.
- [41:25]
Host 1
Yeah, that. That totally makes sense. I mean, again, this is one of those weird situations where if you're thinking about some of these games, including that one. Well, that one specifically, but maybe one other one as well. You have to wait for the. The Steelers Bengals outcome. That's. That's just the name of the game here. All right, let's move on to the next game. Miami Dolphins, New York Jets. We're ending with an ugly one, but don't worry, we have our cheat sheets in top three each position after this. I don't really have anything to say here. Aaron Rodgers is 5600. Devonte 7K, Garrett Wilson 6K. This team's a mess. I mean, Aaron Rodgers, I guess in theory could throw for two touchdown passes in 250 yards, but still, I don't think gets us there considering all the value on the board. I'm not playing HN this week. No, no. Tyree Kill with what looks like Tyler Huntley playing at quarterback. Meg, are you out on this game?
- [42:10]
Host 2
Well, I talked about the narrative at the beginning. If you want to lean into any narratives, one narrative could be he. He only needs one more Rogers. That is touchdown to hit 500, which is a very exclusive club. I think he wants Devonte Adams to get that touchdown. If you want to look in the anytime touchdown market. So there's all those narratives to play. Is this Rogers last game? Is this Rogers and Devonte's last? If you want to lean into those narratives, I don't mind it. I. I totally get it. I don't know if I will, but I, I'm just saying that I, I get it. Whether it's his last game or their last game together, I don't mind a Rogers Devonte Adams stack.
- [42:43]
Host 1
All right, Mike, what say you?
- [42:44]
Guest 3
Yeah, I like Rogers. He's gonna be one of my top three. Spoiler alert. I. I think that they're gonna score, and I do think it could be last game, but it's certainly. Everything is an audition at this point. Meg mentioned, you know, touchdown 500. I think all that. That very, very much in play. The other underrated aspect, with Huntley playing quarterback on the other side, it's very possible they have a short field or two where they only have to march 30 yards to score a touchdown in this game. So I, I like the Rogers side. Like Adams first but still like Wilson as well.
- [43:16]
Host 1
Okay, that'll do it for the 13 game slate. It's now time for our cheat sheets. By the way, speaking of like motivation and stuff in auditions, Joshua Dobbs has expressly said that this game for him is an audition. So before not just for San Francisco but for all the other teams, I think it's really interesting when a player actually acknowledges that. I do think that means something for Josh Dobbs more than most quarterbacks playing on this slate that in theory don't have much to play for. All right, we are going to get to our cheat sheets and top three in each position right after this message from our partners. My dad works in B2B marketing. He came by my school for career day and said he was a big roas man. Then he told everyone how much he loved calculating his return on ad spend. My friends still laugh at me to this day.
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G
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Host 1
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Host 2
You're all right.
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G
Here we go from Taylor Sheridan, executive producer of Yellowstone. Get everybody back.
- [44:38]
Host 1
You just put a giant bullseye on this place. We rolled the dice one last time. Landman New series now streaming exclusively on Paramount plus Back on Fantasy football today. DFS Time for the cheat sheets. Last one of the regular season, but we'll have cheat sheets for the playoffs as well. Meg, start us with a stack a familiar couple of names which I love. Chalk by Chalk Fade, Contrarian and value play.
- [45:02]
Host 2
Sure. Going right back to Baker Mayfield, Mike Evans in a must win game for them. Then of course Chalk by We talked about it earlier and Mike said he's heavy on him and his running the simulations and that's Bijan Robinson. Obviously you know they need to win if if for some reason the Bucks would they're going to rely heavily on Bijan Robinson. Chalk fade is Trey McBride seen a lot of ownership on a very expensive tight end despite how talented he is. I'm not going to go there. Contrarian play is Marvin Mims. We talked about it a little bit at length for the Broncos game Don't understand why we talked about why. So, Katraine, both you and I both talked about how we like his overs in the prop market and, you know, obviously just seems to be a more core piece to this Denver offensive late. And so I want to lean into that. Marvin Mims is my contrarian play in value. I think we all talked about this, too. Michael Carter is coming in very cheap for the Cardinals.
- [45:56]
Host 1
Yeah, I think the Marvin Mims thing is. Is just so interesting because we do have to remember we're playing dfs. And so while it's possible, and especially in this game script, that mims could have two targets, one catch for 16 yards, we're playing a tournament style in most cases here. Like, he could also have eight. Well, last week is kind of an anomaly, I guess, but he could have 80 yards and a touchdown and. And six catches. So, I mean, it's just one of those things where Marvin Mims makes way too much sense to me, even though. And I think part of this is everybody thinks it's all the volum Cortland Sutton because of the incentives. It's like that's not like how a football game works. Like, they're just not gonna. He's not gonna stare down Cortland Sutton the entire game. All right, cheat sheet. Josh Dobbs, Ricky Pierce all but I do think you can play Josh Dobbs solo here. So that's my stack. Chalk buy is going to be Mike Evans for obvious reasons. Chalk fade. I. I noticed Isaac Garendo getting a lot of ownership, so I'm just going to go ahead and fade him. I'm going to play other running backs on this slate. Contrarian. I'm just putting out Tyler Johnson. But really what I want to say here is probably like a Rams receiver or a Kansas City receiver. Mike talked about the Kansas City receivers. I think Tyler Johnson or Jordan Whittington or Tutu Atwell are in play. I'm gonna keep my ear to the ground because I think we're going to hear some stuff about Kansas City receivers and Rams receivers. So let's pay attention to that. My value play. I'm with you, Meg. It's Michael Carter. All right, Mike, Top three at each position. We start at quarterback.
- [47:12]
Guest 3
Josh Dobbs, Baker Mayfield, Aaron Rodgers. Dobbs again 4k has a lot of rushing upside and rushing touchdown up side. Baker Mayfield, obvious reasons. And then Aaron Rodgers again, audition season. And I, I think that you know where the volume's going. So if you want to stack it, it's pretty easy in terms of playing Those two receivers.
- [47:34]
Host 1
Okay, let me ask you, let me ask you real quick before you get a running back. Would Bo Nix be number four there for you?
- [47:41]
Guest 3
Not for me. But I don't mind it if you like the, that I, I'm electing more to just isolate one or two of his receivers. But I, I don't, I say I'm not going to play four quarterbacks. I'm gonna play two at most probably out of this anyway. And the reason for it is Dobbs is 4K. So with Dobbs 4K, you know, again I can get Bijan, I can get Bucky, I can get Evans in every lineup without any, any trouble.
- [48:08]
Host 1
That sounds amazing. All right, speaking of Bucky, talk to me about your top three running backs.
- [48:12]
Guest 3
Yeah, it's gonna be Bucky, Irving, Bijan Robinson, Michael Carter gonna play straight shock across the board. There's there obvious reasons again, Bucky and Bijan must win games. Heavy, heavy volume. Michael Carter just 4K. Also on the other side of that Josh Dobbs situation, I, I like that a lot.
- [48:31]
Host 1
All right, top three wide receivers.
- [48:33]
Guest 3
Mike Evans, Jackson, Smith and Jigba. And then I'm listing Jets wide receiver. You can play either Devonte or Garrett Wilson. Like both of them there. I have a lineup that I really like that puts Garrett Wilson in over Devonte. But Mike Evans, Jackson, Smith and Jigba. And then the jets receivers.
- [48:50]
Host 1
All right, top three tight ends. You're leading with a guy that's 2500.
- [48:54]
Guest 3
Highly speculative at tight end here. Peyton Hendershot for the Kansas City Chiefs, Grant Calcatera for the Eagles and then Brock Bowers. I just think that there is a scenario. Brock Bowers sees the double digit targets, lands in the end zone and just really, really, really separates at the tight end position more so than anyone else can in any other position. So I am going to include Bowers here.
- [49:18]
Host 1
Very, very interesting, ladies and gentlemen. That was a show. We went through 13 games, we got through our cheat sheets, our top three in each position. We tried to introduce some of the nuance for this crazy week, some of the incentives and you all helped us out. So we really appreciate everybody in the chat. Hopefully you can join us next week as well as we march toward the playoffs. Meg, thank you. Mike, thank you. That was a great show. Really looking forward to this crazy slate. Again though, you don't have to pour your entire, whatever you poured into last week and the week before, you can play this week a little lighter. But if you have confidence, play it the same. We don't want to tell you what to do with your money. But we have to acknowledge this is a very quirky week. So on behalf of Meg, shout, on behalf of Mike McClure and Claire, on the ones and twos and threes and fours, and of course, all of you, we'll see you next week. This is fantasy football to today, dfs.
- [50:19]
G
The NFL on CBS streams live on Paramount plus all season long.
- [50:23]
Host 1
Oh, my goodness.
- [50:25]
G
Catch your local CBS game every Sunday on Paramount plus right through the AFC Championship game. You can't do it any better. Your Paramount plus subscription also gives you an All Access pass to 24.7NFL content for breaking news, fantasy advice and more.
- [50:40]
Guest 3
Oh, incredible is right.
- [50:43]
G
Another great season of the NFL on CBS is here streaming live on Paramount Plus.