Nine Bounceback Candidates for 2025! Enjoy These Draft Day Values (01/30 Fantasy Football Podcast)

Summary

Fantasy Football Today - Episode Summary: "Nine Bounceback Candidates for 2025! Enjoy These Draft Day Values" (Released January 30, 2025)

In this episode of Fantasy Football Today, host Adam Aizer and analysts Dave Richard, Jamey Eisenberg, and Heath Cummings delve deep into identifying nine bounceback candidates for the 2025 fantasy football season. The team offers comprehensive insights into player performances, potential recoveries, and draft day strategies to help fantasy managers gain an edge in their leagues.

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1. Introduction and Show Overview

Adam kicks off the episode by highlighting the focus on bounceback candidates, emphasizing the team's commitment to providing unbiased and well-researched opinions to aid listeners in dominating their fantasy leagues.

Adam (01:51): "Bounce back season, baby. We're talking about bounce back candidates and we're hoping that Heath, I think he should be on soon so we will get to his. Hopefully we'll have nine for you."

2. News and Notes

Before diving into bounceback candidates, the hosts briefly discuss recent NFL developments, including coaching changes and team dynamics.

• Raiders' Coaching Changes:

  The potential appointment of Daryl Bevel as the Raiders' next offensive coordinator reunites him with veteran coach Pete Carroll from their Seattle days.

  Jamie (02:56): "There's just a lot of question marks here. So let's talk about the players first before we even worry about Daryl Bevel and what the play calls look like."

• Chiefs' Quarterback Situation:

  Adam reveals a shift in his allegiance, now rooting for the Kansas City Chiefs over the Philadelphia Eagles.

  Adam (03:50): "I'm rooting for the Chiefs."

3. Heath's Bounceback Candidates

Heath Cummings presents his top three bounceback candidates, focusing on key players he believes will rebound in the upcoming season.

a. Patrick Mahomes

Despite a slightly underwhelming performance in the season's latter half, Mahomes remains a top-tier quarterback with immense upside.

Dave (05:00): "Patrick Mahomes is still the best quarterback in the world. Every time he actually needs to go score a touchdown, he does."

b. Isaiah Pacheco

Pacheco's recovery from injury is pivotal. With full offseason training, he’s expected to reclaim his role as the Chiefs' primary running back.

Dave (08:52): "Isaiah Pacheco will be a good number two running back for fantasy purposes and the best running back on the Chiefs."

c. TJ Hawkinson

Recently returning from an ACL injury, Hawkinson is poised to become a top-six fantasy tight end, assuming he stays healthy.

Adam (12:14): "Hawkinson went as tight end 13 in round 10 to Thomas Schaefer, so I'm sure we like that value you're my question with Mahomes..."

4. Jamie's Bounceback Candidates

Jamie Eisenberg offers his perspective, highlighting players he believes will significantly improve their performance in 2025.

a. Breeze Hall

Hall's previous season saw a dip in performance, but his talent and staying power suggest a strong comeback.

Jamie (21:21): "Breeze Hall still brings to the table... he's on pace for 74 catches before the Adams trade."

b. Jalen Waddle

Waddle's dynamic role in the Dolphins' offense, coupled with potential changes in quarterback play, makes him a prime candidate for resurgence.

Jamie (22:40): "There's a lot of upside still with Jalen Waddle and now the cost is a little bit depressed."

c. Ramondre Stevenson

Stevenson's integration into the Patriots' system under new coaching could unlock his full potential as a reliable fantasy asset.

Jamie (22:40): "Stevenson is going to end up being one of the better value picks on drafting."

5. Adam's Bounceback Candidates

Adam Aizer identifies three additional players he anticipates will bounce back, focusing on wide receivers and a quarterback.

a. Trevor Lawrence

Lawrence's evolving role and potential offensive line improvements position him as a quarterback to watch.

Adam (32:04): "Trevor Lawrence is going to be a stream-worthy quarterback."

b. Chris Olave

Olave's target share and rapport with the Seahawks' quarterback suggest a return to his earlier form.

Adam (32:04): "Olave is basically Terry McLaurin. Reliable wide receiver he should be."

c. DK Metcalf

Metcalf's performance is closely tied to quarterback play, but his talent ensures he remains a valuable asset if his situation improves.

Adam (32:04): "DK Metcalf will be a good value if he makes it to round six."

6. Host Discussions and Counterpoints

The analysts engage in a spirited debate, presenting both support and skepticism regarding the selected bounceback candidates. They discuss factors such as team dynamics, coaching changes, and player health that could influence performance.

Adam (35:08): "The shine has worn off. And honestly, you look at a guy like Terry McLaurin and you see the talent that he had and you couldn't predict that he was going to have this kind of season."

Dave (35:23): "These guys are going to be low end starters or high end bench players for you. Get excited people."

7. Draft Day Strategies and Value Picks

The conversation shifts towards draft strategies, emphasizing the importance of identifying undervalued players who can offer significant returns without high draft costs.

Jamie (36:54): "They are still stuck with Derek Carr and Geno Smith, respectively. There's a lot to like still about a lobby situation and Metcalf situation, I think based on the cost."

8. Listener Engagement and Mailbag Preview

The hosts briefly touch upon listener emails and tease upcoming segments focused on dynasty league questions. However, due to scheduling conflicts, some emails are deferred to future episodes.

Adam (45:24): "I just searched through our emails and looked for the questions that were about Dynasty and thought that I would use them for the Dynasty mailbag tomorrow."

9. Closing Remarks and Teasers for Future Episodes

As the episode concludes, the hosts discuss personal plans and tease upcoming shows, maintaining a casual and engaging rapport with their audience.

Adam (49:27): "We'll talk to you all tomorrow on Dynasty. And we'll talk to you on Monday on Fantasy Football today."

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Notable Quotes:

• Adam (05:10): "He's still the best quarterback in the world. Every time he actually needs to go score a touchdown, he does."

• Jamie (22:40): "There's a lot of upside still with Jalen Waddle and now the cost is a little bit depressed."

• Dave (35:23): "These guys are going to be low end starters or high end bench players for you. Get excited people."

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Conclusion

The episode provides a thorough analysis of nine players poised for significant improvement in the 2025 fantasy football season. By examining each candidate's circumstances, health, and team dynamics, Adam, Dave, Jamie, and Heath equip fantasy managers with the knowledge needed to make informed draft decisions and strategic moves throughout the season. Whether you're looking to capitalize on emerging talents or seeking reliable veterans to bolster your lineup, this episode of Fantasy Football Today offers invaluable insights to help you achieve fantasy football dominance.

Transcript

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[Dave]

Fantasy Football Today from CBS Sports.

[Heath]

Wanna play?

[Adam]

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[Dave]

It's time to dominate your fantasy league.

[Adam]

Off to the races and he stays at his feet. Chris is gonna go the distance.

[Dave]

Now here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie and Heath.

[Adam]

Happy Thursday everybody. And on this show, that's basically Happy Friday, our last show of the week. But we got four episodes for you. I think four episodes for you. Next week, getting ready for the super bowl and talking about all different kinds of fantasy topics. We welcome you to Fantasy Football Today presented by BetMGM, the sportsbook born in Vegas. It is bounce back season, baby. We're talking about bounce back candidates and we're hoping that Heath, I think he should be on soon so we will get to his. Hopefully we'll have nine for you.

[Jamie]

Texted us that he will be here soon.

[Adam]

Oh, great. All right, so we'll have nine for you three from all of us. Okay. How you doing, Jamie?

[Jamie]

I'm doing great. How are you?

[Adam]

Good. Why don't we fire through the news and notes before Heath gets here? There are not many, but we do have two. We do have Daryl Bevel appearing likely to be the Raiders next offensive coordinator. They're also bringing back their defensive coordinator, Patrick Graham. But, yeah, a lot of questions to be answered on the Raiders offense. But Bevel will reunite with Pete Carroll. He worked for him in Seattle. Are your thoughts on Daryl Bevel going to the Raiders?

[Jamie]

I'd love to see who the quarterback is. I'd love to see who the running back is. I'd love to see who the number one receiver is. I mean, you said it. There's just a lot of question marks here. So, you know, sometimes when you have a, a great system in place that can overcome, you know, some deficiencies of the players. I don't know if anybody would say Daryl Bevel has the best system because they were, you know, getting sort of tired of him when he was in Seattle, and then they sort of started cycling. That's when they started cycling through a variety of different coordinators. But the run game should be productive for the Seahawks if the right pieces are in place. And so is Zamir White going to be the lead running back? Is sincere McCormick going to be the lead running back? You know, they're going to go add somebody there. This is a team that has a lot of question marks, and so let's talk about the players first before we even worry about Daryl Bevel and what the play calls look like.

[Adam]

Hello, Heath.

[Dave]

What's going on?

[Adam]

I have come to a, to a conclusion, and I think you shouldn't, you should be the first to know.

[Dave]

Okay.

[Adam]

I'm rooting for the Chiefs.

[Dave]

Well, that's fantastic news.

[Adam]

Cleared my head and yeah, Chiefs it is.

[Dave]

I, I, I think the, the spags oversake. One thing makes sense. It was, I'll tell you, a basketball practice last night. I almost had to extend the practice for an extra 30 minutes for running because my entire seventh grade team is cheering for the Eagles. And they put their hands in the middle, they all said Eagles instead of our team name at the break down after practice. So even my son, well, he didn't object.

[Jamie]

So he didn't. So he has this, this, you know, fun little, I guess, tradition with my aunt for his birthdays. She gets him a jersey for his birthday and he has a Kelsey jersey.

[Dave]

Yeah.

[Jamie]

Thank Kelsey. Kelsey Mahomes, one of two.

[Dave]

He may have just gone along with.

[Jamie]

The crowd that he wore to last year's Super Bowl. But now his little brother roots for the Chiefs, his middle brother. They fight a lot.

[Dave]

Yeah.

[Jamie]

It might be just to bother his brother.

[Dave]

So. Yeah, I'm. Welcome aboard. Adam, I. I like, historically speaking, over the last 10 years of working with you, I know that generally when you decide to cheer for a team, that works out great for the team you're cheering for.

[Adam]

Look, this isn't the first time I've rooted for the Chiefs over the Eagles.

[Dave]

At the super bowl, is I? I just came in late and I was running a couple errands this morning. Is Daryl Bevel is officially the offensive coordinator.

[Adam]

Okay.

[Dave]

Like my, like the whole. The whole crew is getting back together though, right?

[Adam]

Well, Patrick Rams, the defensive coordinator, that's going to be different.

[Dave]

No, I meant Russ.

[Adam]

Oh, oh, oh.

[Dave]

Tyler Lockett's gonna get cut by the Seahawks and go join them.

[Adam]

Maybe they'll trade for Metcalf. We're going to talk about him a little bit later. The e Philadelphia offensive coordinator Kellen Moore seems like the favorite to be the Saints new head coach. They're the only team that still needs a head coach. They haven't hired anyone. So you got to figure there's a reason they're waiting. So we'll talk about the Saints offense in a little bit. Matthew Stafford plans on playing in 2025, but he will likely need a new contract and I'm gonna filibuster here just to look up where he was after Puka came. Puka and cup came back where he ranked. But what do you think about Matthew Stafford? Do you see any reason to draft him in a one quarterback league?

[Jamie]

No, the only way I think you would is if, you know, you, you like we talked about with Dak Prescott, but a little bit of a lesser degree of I draft Caleb Williams and I want a safe number two quarterback in case that guy fails, you know. So I would anticipate if. If cup is back and anything close to being better than he was this year. Certainly not Elite Cup. What we saw from Stafford at times from week eight on was, you know, 20 plus point potential, good weather. So he's not going to be horrible. He's just not someone you want to target.

[Adam]

All right. He wasn't even a top 15 quarterback, but not, not bad. He averaged 19.3 fantasy points per game, which was about 16th or 17th per game and 6 point per passing time.

[Jamie]

That's for the season.

[Adam]

No, that's. No, sorry. That was the last eight games he played weeks eight through 17. Eight or nine games when Puka and Cup came back.

[Jamie]

Right.

[Adam]

So he averaged. Yeah, just under 20 fantasy points and.

[Jamie]

Three like awful games in there. Right. The Dolphins game was bad, the 49ers game was bad. And I think the jets, maybe the jets game.

[Adam]

Let's see. Three awful games. See Jamie's memory. Yep. Horrible against the Dolphins. Very good. Actually four, because his last three games. Ooh, was he bad. In the fantasy playoffs, Matthew Stafford scored 25 fantasy points in the three fantasy playoff games at San Francisco, at the jets and Arizona. That is horrible. Through one touchdown in three games and did not throw for 200 yards in any of them. All right, that's about it. The jets hired Steve Wilkes as their defensive coordinator. That is it for the news and notes. If you haven't signed up for BETMGM yet, use the bonus code fantasy and you're gonna get up to a fifteen hundred dollar first bet offer on your first wager with BetMGM. So here's how it works. You download the BetMGM app, you sign up and you use the bonus code Fantasy. Deposit at least $10 and place your first wager on any game and you'll receive up to $1,500 in bonus bets if your bet loses. Just make sure that you use the bonus code fantasy when you sign up. So bounce back candidates. I asked everybody for three, including me and I did it. I did my homework assignment. The good thing on this show is that, you know, they're, we're not homers. We're very unbiased, you know. So just with that being said, he's three bounce back candidates for you before.

[Jamie]

Before you go on. Just so we used to, you know, when we had our full length episodes of, of Fantasy Football today on, on CBS Sports hq, we would do starts and sits and it was always like a race to see who's going to get in their favorite starts and sets. When I hosted that show, I would always let the guys give their, their, you know, players first, you know, to be respectful. Adam, here's what the assignment is and here are the three guys I want to talk about before I let you guys, you know, choose. So that was very selfish. Second of all, he was on the show.

[Dave]

Yep.

[Jamie]

And, and you, you sent the email to Dan. Dan got all excited. He thought he was gonna be on the show. And then you go, sorry Dan, you're not on the show. It's Ethan show. So you're, you're doing great this week.

[Dave]

I, I did get choices 7 through 9 in the bounce back player draft, it was not a snake draft. It was just Adam got one through three, Jamie got four through six, I got seven through nine.

[Adam]

Honest, honest answer from you. Were you going to choose any of those six?

[Dave]

What do you mean, was I going to choose any of those six when I didn't know anything about what we were going to talk about on the show before you sent me the six?

[Adam]

Well, first of all, you had the schedule, so you knew today was bounce back candidates. But when I said we need. We need three bounce back candidates from everyone. Here are the six that Jamie and I have chosen.

[Dave]

I'm going to be completely honest, and maybe this is a bad job by me, but I had not scoured the schedule from the previous week and planned out the names that I was going to talk about.

[Adam]

No, I. But the six that we came up with were. Were you. Would you have used.

[Dave]

I had not thought about this show in any shape, fashion or form until you sent me that text.

[Adam]

I know, but I'm just saying, like, oh, I would have used those guys, but now it's going to be someone else.

[Jamie]

I could guarantee he was not going to say Trevor Lawrence.

[Adam]

Yeah, that I know for. I don't think he was going to say my guy. Maybe Olave.

[Dave]

But anyway, DK definitely would have been on my list. I think Breeze hall, and you may just give all your names that you guys put in.

[Adam]

No, it's okay. All right, let's go to your names. Your names.

[Dave]

Yeah, I mean, Patrick Mahomes, Isaiah Pacheco, TJ Hawkinson. One of these guys is just like, we've seen a couple of down years from Mahomes, but these guys always bounce back to great performances. You should draft Patrick Mahomes as a top five quarterback again next year. Nobody's going to be surprised by that. He averaged 24 fantasy points per game from week 11 on. He's hopeful. I mean, for a fantasy manager, you hope the chief's defense just isn't quite as good next year. I mean, we get a few more pass attempts, but also you hope that Rashi Rice and Xavier Worthy are both healthy for the majority of the season, and Mahomes maybe has his best receiving core ever. I think we thought that coming into this year and it didn't quite pan out because of the Rice injury. Pacheco, I was very, very hesitant while he was on IR about anything he was going to produce this year. We've seen guys suffer this type of injury and nine months later not be quite the same guy with A broken leg. He's not been the same guy. He doesn't. He's not the Chief's best running back right now. Kareem Hunt is. But I still think that next year you give him a full off season to fully recovery recover. Isaiah Pacheco will be a good number two running back for fantasy purposes and the best running back on the Chiefs. Kind of a similar thing with Pacheco and Hawkinson first year back from an acl. He was very limited in his production but I expect we get a fully healthy TJ Hawkinson in 2025 and he is a top six fantasy tight end.

[Adam]

Okay, Mahomes, Pacheco, Hawkinson, Jamie, anything you want to say about these guys as bounce back candidates? Mahomes finished as the number eight quarter. No, sorry, that was his last nine games. Last nine games he did average 24.2 fantasy points per game but shockly that was only eighth best per game. But overall for the season Mahomes was QB11 and he was QB10 per game. Actually 11th per game and 4 point 10th per game and 6 points. So that's Mahomes, Pacheco obviously injured all year and Hawkinson injured for half the season. Your thoughts Jamie?

[Jamie]

I think Mahomes is in contention for QB6. I don't know if he'll crack the top five. I think the top five will probably end up barring injuries to receivers, barring holdouts, anything like that. I don't think he's getting drafted ahead of Jackson and Allen. He's not going to get drafted ahead of Jane Daniels at this point. I don't think he gets drafted ahead of Joe Burrow and I don't think he gets drafted ahead of Jalen hurts. I think 6 is probably where he'll end up settling. There will be probably some trepidation depending on Kelsey's status, Rice's status. You know, there's a lot of things at play. The Pacheco call I totally agree with. But I also think as we've discussed over the last couple of weeks, do they add somebody else, you know, to replace Kareem Hunt, you know, of a younger variety that could come in and maybe compete for touches with Pacheco? Do they bring back Cream Hunt on a cheap deal and just try and run things back depending on how things finished? Clay has worked out for them and then we have, you know, another headache of, you know, just because Cream Hunt, someone that they trust, does he take goal line opportunities? Does he have, you know, first and second down opportunities, you know, so you you look and see here what Pacheco did in his first two games. He was awesome and then clearly he has not been the same since coming back. Hawkinson I'm totally on board with. I, I think there's you know a lot to like if the quarterback situation is right but you saw what he was able to accomplish. You know we were talking about this off the air Heath before because Adam was saying I believe his exact quote was TJ Hawkins sucks that and then Thomas you know crapped all over him that Hawkinson did great as Thomas alluded to with Josh Dobbs, you know so can he be you know prominent enough in an offense that has two really good wide receivers one of the best in football with a rookie quarterback or you know maybe Sam Darnold coming back. So there's a lot to love about all three of these guys. I just think you know the, the Pacheco one is could kind of sway swing either way.

[Adam]

The Hawkinson I was joking. I said he stinks. He doesn't stink but yeah, no my concern with Hawkinson is that he is, I don't think he's ever been the third fiddle until this year he really hasn't played with with two good receivers. I mean he played with Amanra St. Brown but you know like Khalif Raymond what was last year last year was the same guys. Well last year was I mean 2023. I mean 2023 was Minnesota. He played with Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison and he had, he had a solid year but there I feel like there weren't a lot of times when all of them were healthy at the same time. Jefferson got hurt then Hawkinson got hurt later. Anyway I remember not being overwhelmed by his numbers when all three of them were healthy but it is what it is. Yeah so that's my thing with Hawkins but he went as tight we just did a draft last a few weeks ago he went as tight end 13 in round 10 to Thomas Schaefer so I'm sure we like that value you're my question with Mahomes why is it different this year than it was a year ago when we called him a bounce back candidate. It is two seasons in a row where he has been a low end number one quarterback. He's been right around 10th per game and he's two years in a row where the and I I'm the same guy who said yesterday, yesterday I said a dot doesn't matter for quarterbacks but with him it's two years in a row of a very low A dot and just not enough explosive plays. And his first four seasons as a starter, Patrick Mahomes averaged 14 touchdowns of 20 or more yards in his last three. I think he has 14 combined. Yeah, he's averaging. Yeah, 14 combined in his last three and seven combined in his last two where he's not throwing the ball downfield. So why, I think. Why are things different now than they were a year ago?

[Dave]

Well, One of those three years that you were talking about, he led the NFL in passing yards and passing touchdowns through for 5,250 yards and 41 touchdowns.

[Adam]

Seven touchdowns, seven big touchdowns that year. He said seven combined in the last two years with the super low eight.

[Dave]

I just, I think he's obviously still the best quarterback in the world. Every time he actually needs to go score a touchdown, he does. This was a year where they were like, they were never really challenged. And so I think that the hope is that next year is a little bit more difficult for him.

[Jamie]

When you say never really challenged.

[Adam]

Yeah, they're in one score games every week.

[Dave]

Right.

[Jamie]

But.

[Dave]

Sure, I mean, they, they lost. They've lost one game in the last 14 months. They were trying to win.

[Adam]

They win. Yeah, I, I think, I mean, I honestly, I don't know if you agree with this, but I feel like I, I saw him miss open receivers more this year than ever before. I feel like he just didn't play that well this year.

[Jamie]

Well, I, I think part, part of this, look, it's the evolution of how this team is. When he was doing this, he was doing this on a rookie deal with, you know, weapons that were, you know, like Heath just said, he may have the best receiving core of his career. You know, it's going to be tough to beat. I don't care who the third guy is. Peak Tyreek Hill and Peak Travis Kelsey. I mean, that's as good as you get. So, you know, we, we went into this season and, and Heath mentioned no Rice's injury. It was also Marquis Brown's injury that was part of this. You know, we thought Marquis Brown was going to be one of the big pieces of this offense and, and Rice coming back from what he did a year ago and maybe Kelsey would, you know, play a little bit more of a, a typical role as opposed to what we saw last year until they got to the playoffs. So I, I think the thing that, that's evolved with this team is the offensive line has not been as good. You know, they've had to mix and match. You know, some guys obviously, you know, tuning Moving to, to left guard, left tackle, left guard to left tackle. The receiving core wasn't as good. And then when he got Worthy going and got Marquis Brown back on the field, even if Brown didn't do very much, it was still another element that defense has had to account for. And then you see what he's still capable of doing. So I don't know if he's ever going to get back to fantasy wise being top three. Unless of course he wants to and Reed wants him to and they allow him to go out there and throw the ball probably 45 times and then you're going to get these type of numbers again. But to Heat's point, I think, and this is what you're getting at, they didn't have to have him do that. And so I just don't know if I'll ever get to that again. Like Burrow I think has to do that on a weekly basis until that team, you know, retools the defense completely. The other guys around Burrow are all runners. Allen's a runner, Jackson's a runner, Hertz is a runner, Daniels is a runner. Mahomes is not going to do that until the playoffs. So I think when you start to look at QB6 on, you know, and that's a very, you know, buffet of guys, a big buffet of guys of Baker and Goff and Kyler and all these other quarterbacks that we've discussed, like I would feel more comfortable in the homes over those guys, but I don't think he's going to crack the top five. He won't for me, you know, those other five guys are locked in.

[Adam]

Okay. All right, so that's Heath's list, Mahomes, Pacheco and Hawkinson. We're going to take a break and when we come back we'll look at Jamie's list of bounce back candidates and we'll be right back on fantasy football today.

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[Adam]

Well, I thought maybe no bias in Jamie's list, but appears that Jamie is just a big AFC east guy from his days growing up as a Dolphins fan. I didn't realize that lingered. Jamie who three bounce back candidates so much like Heath.

[Jamie]

I did not look at the schedule much like Heath. I just looked at in my mind. I was like, all right, I'll start with the AFC east and then just kind of work my way back. And so I was like, oh, Bruce hall, okay, he was on the bus list last year. We know he was better than that. All right, we also need. Oh yeah, Jalen Waddle. Okay. It's potential there. I'm like, you know what? All right, Patriots. Anybody else with Stevenson? I'm good.

[Adam]

All right. All right, fair. So. So you got Breeze Hall, Jalen Waddle and Ramondre Stevenson. Go for it.

[Jamie]

So Breeze hall is. Is clearly some low hanging fruit. I mean, you know, he was great. Two years ago we drafted him based on average job position as the number two overall player, second running back behind Christian McCaffrey and he finished as RB16, both I think in total points and points per game in ppr. So he had a disappointing season. But there were obviously some things that you like and clearly if they get things on track here, I do think that we'll see probably a little bit more shared work because Braylon Allen deserves to get some touches if Aaron Rodgers is back, you know, does he have the same touchdown potential? But before the Devonte Adams addition, he was doing a better job from a reception standpoint. We know that's something he could do as good as anybody in the league. He showed that coming back from the ACL tear two years ago. So there's a lot to love about what Bree hall still brings to the table. It was a disastrous finish for him. It was disastrous season for the jets overall, but it wouldn't shock me. I don't, I don't know how you guys feel about this. If he's a top five running back again in 2025, he's just got that much upside, that much potential.

[Adam]

Why don't you go ahead and run through. We'll get to hall again in a second, but go through Waddle and Stevenson.

[Jamie]

So Stevenson is, is a lot to do with what the personnel should be for the Patriots and the system and coaching staff for the Patriots. I mean, you know, Mike Vrabel's got a history of leaning on his run game. Josh McDaniels has gotten great production out of his running backs right now. Antonio Gibson I don't think is a threat to take Ramandre Stevenson off the field on first and second down. We'll see if they bring in somebody else. They can clearly draft somebody. It's a loaded class. But they did give him a big contract extension or a significant contract extension prior to last year. And so again, another guy that has shown us the ability to be a good fantasy option. He's not as talented as Bruce hall by any stretch, but if they can fix the offensive line, I think Drake May is going to be much better in year two than he is than he was in year one because of the coaching change. And so if Stevenson is the featured back in Josh McDaniel's offense with a guy that has the ability to catch the ball the backfield, I think he's going to end up being one of the better value picks. On drafting.

[Adam]

Okay, did you get to waddle or no?

[Jamie]

Oh, and then Waddle, look, he, you know, you, you mentioned this in terms of the things that we learned and you know, players dealing with injuries. He was banged up in camp, spent a lot of time, you know, dealing with injuries. There's, you know, two, two things with Jalen Waddle. Again, you know, one would be low hanging fruit. Clearly there's huge bounce back potential if Tyreeka leaves. You know, we'll all be drafting Jalen Waddle relatively high if, if Tyreek kills, no longer on the Dolphins. But I don't think he's going to be as bad as he was this season. You know, he's had two really good years in the NFL in his first two seasons. Last year was, was extremely disappointing. He could still be a 15 point per game guy. You know, if they get back to, you know, throwing the ball downfield a little bit more and being more explosive, I think he benefits, you know, more so than Johnny Smith, for example. So based on the cost, I mean, we were drafting this guy back into round two, early round three, he's probably going to be around. Five pick would be my guess. You know, round four at the earliest. I'll buy into that all day with what Jalen Waddle still has to offer.

[Adam]

Waddle went 39th overall in our half PPR draft, so that is the third pick of round four. Mike Evans was the wide receiver drafted before him. Devonte Adams, Cooper Cup. We get to a pretty, pretty weird group of wide receivers after that. Adams Cup. Olave Flowers. Just a big group where you could really see any order depending on personal preference, including Jalen Waddle. I'd have to say Heath. Do you agree or disagree with Breeze, Hall, Stevenson and Waddle?

[Dave]

So I, I think Waddle is the one that's easiest to agree with. Even if Tyree Kill is back, I can't see them going with the same offensive philosophy that they did this past year. And I think we'll see more downfield throws, I think we'll see more big plays from Jalen Waddle. And so I, I think he definitely bounces back, if not all the way to what he was in 2022, at least what he was on a per game basis in 2023. Hall's interesting because, like he finished in 2023 as RB2 overall, but it was largely because he played 17 games. I think he was RB7 on a PER game basis. I just don't, I feel, I think better about Stevenson bouncing back to what he was before last year than I do about Hull bouncing back to what we expected him to be this year. I don't, I, I, maybe I'll feel different after I see who's in charge of the jets offense and who's playing quarterback for them, but this might just still be a terrible offense.

[Adam]

Jalen Waddle was wide receiver 22 per game in 2023 when he had a thousand yards, roughly a thousand yards, four touchdowns in 14 games. Do you think he bounces back to that wide receiver 22 range or to awesome player, the guy that we were drafting in the second, early third round because of what he did in 2022. What's more likely?

[Dave]

I believe the 2012. Well, I mean, more likely is obviously the low end number two, but I, I think that's about my expectation too.

[Adam]

Jamie.

[Jamie]

Somewhere between, okay, I mean, I got.

[Adam]

Ready, I'm gonna, I'm gonna, I'm gonna play devil's advocate on all of them. Number one, Breeze Hall. Two years in a row where he has been like Ken Walker, just one of the, one of the worst running backs in terms of zero or negative yard carries, just home run or bust, and the home runs haven't come as often. And then I asked myself with Breece hall, what is going to get better about his situation next Year. I do think that the Devonte Adams thing, he was on pace for 96 catches before the Adams. No, sorry, I think I was targets. He was on pace for 74 catches before the Adams trade, on pace for 53 catches with Adams. So that's one thing. But what's going to get better about the situation? I don't know. Waddle, he's only had one great year. I mean, he did have a good rookie season. He had so many targets, he had so many catches. But he's only had one standout year. And it was a year where he had a lot of long, big plays. Other than that, the guy never gets targets in the end zone, in the red zone, in the green zone. It's so low. Same problem that Olave has, I'm going to talk about soon. And then Stevenson, he might just not be that good. And he fumbles a lot. So take that, buddy.

[Jamie]

A great, great devil's advocate on Stevenson.

[Adam]

Well, it's true, though. I mean, I, I, you know, what's gonna get. Things could definitely get better for him. They got a lot of cap space. They can go out and get the best guard, Trey Smith, out there. They could draft an offensive lineman with the fourth overall pick. They could upgrade their offense. They've got a better offensive coordinator, probably. So I can see things getting better for him. I just don't know how good he is. But he's a, he's a, you know, latest round, you know, mid to late round pick. So it's not like a big gamble or anything. But, you know, what do you think about Waddle specifically? Jamie? Just. I don't know how he gets back to what he did in 2022 because, you know, Heath, you said they're going to throw the ball downfield more. I do think that Dave, if he were here, would probably say Devon Achan has really killed Jalen Waddle's value. And I think there's actually a lot of validity to that. Yeah, I'm sorry, Jamie, Go ahead. My bad.

[Jamie]

I, I do think that, you know, we, we see scenarios like this happen when especially it might be magnified a little bit. You have a very disgruntled Tyreek Hill right now. Does he come back in, in the good graces of Mike McDaniel and Tua because they couldn't find a trade partner or they really want to make this work? Or do we start to see maybe a little changing of the guard as well, where Jalen Waddle gets a little bit more opportunities? You know, to your point about him, not getting some, some red zone touches. I do think he was playing her to majority of the season. I think that's a big part of, of that. Yes, certainly Devon H.N. and John who Smith, both guys were a big, you know, detriment to what Jalen Waddle was able to accomplish last year, clearly. But let's not forget they missed four games with two at Tonga. By law, you could factor that into his, you know, his outlook moving forward. I know one thing that he's talked about last year, which I was totally on board with that if Tyreek ever misses time, you know, we saw the, the game against the jets two seasons ago and just how great he was. Tyreek played through a wrist injury. He's going to be 31 years old. You know, again, there's the, the chance of him leaving. So that, that changes everything about this conversation. But I just think there's a lot of upside still with Jalen Waddle and now the cost is a little bit depressed. So, you know, 39th overall in an analyst draft with no rookies involved, that probably pushes into, you know, mid-40s would be my guess. And that's great value for me.

[Dave]

So to, to your point about Dave Adam, I think he has been. He was definitely right last year that it happened. I just think it's a really bad plan and I hope that they saw that. Devon Hn has been one of the most efficient running backs in the NFL. 5.6 yards per carry. That's incredible. For his career, even, even 4.5 last year was good. 6.1 yards per touch, 6.4 yards per target. Those are very good. Jalen Waddle has each of the last three years been nine yards per target or better. It's just, it's a, like we can't have 83 targets going to Jalen Waddle at the expense of throwing the ball more to Devon Hn and getting fewer yards.

[Adam]

I hope you're right. All right. Those are some people.

[Jamie]

They want to be more ball control and not, you know, putting their defense.

[Adam]

That's what they wanted.

[Dave]

Yeah, that's what they wanted last year for sure. Yeah. And it just didn't seem like that worked out very well.

[Jamie]

Well, I, again, I, I think it may have worked out for them if Tua stayed healthy because they probably go 2 and 2 at worst in those four games that he missed. My guess would have been 3 and 1. They played some real crappy teams in that four game stretch. So you tack on two, three wins. They're not winning the ACS, but they're in the playoffs.

[Adam]

Yeah, they could have definitely lost the Buffalo with, with that. But no, you're right. I mean they were, they were not a bad team by any means. With two.

[Jamie]

Well, they were offensively during that stretch. They were terrible.

[Adam]

Yeah. No, no, I'm saying with Tua, they're horrible without him. Yeah. All right, let's go to my bounce back candidates. I've got three of them as well. Two wide receivers and a quarterback. To the surprise of nobody. Trevor Lawrence is on my bounce back list. Chris Olave and DK Metcalf, you could say about Olave. Oh well, he got hurt. Of course he's going to bounce back. I'm talking about he's going to bounce back just from what he did in the first five games of the season when he and Derek Carr and Rashid Shahid were all healthy. Really wasn't that good. So I'll start with Trevor Lawrence here and I just want to point out with Lawrence, like what am I expecting to bounce back to top 15 quarterback.

[Dave]

An imaginary thing that we've always thought.

[Adam]

That he was top 15 quarterback realistic. You know, could, could easily be 12th, but you could see a scenario where he has a great year. Could he be the next Baker Mayfield? There's an obvious comparison here. We've got Liam Cohen. I've been pretty down on Doug Peterson for a while. Trevor Lawrence. Here are a few areas where I think he can and will improve. Number one, his ADOT or air yards per pass attempt. Second highest in the NFL over nine yards. Ridiculous. That needs to come down and it will. I, I'm not just going to compare him to Baker Mayfield, but Baker Mayfield had a pretty low a dot. Why am I. In case you're confused, Liam Cohen was the offensive coordinator play caller for the Bucks. Now he's the head coach for the Jaguars. Yards per carry. He didn't really run that much less but he averaged like 2.6 yards per carry. Trevor Lawrence, very strange. He, he could get back to being a 20 yard per game rusher. About 350 yards per season. Green zone pass rate. This is something that the Jaguars in his four years have never been all that high in. They, they haven't been an aggressive team inside the 10 yard line. They've run the ball a lot. The Bucks were like had the seventh highest green zone pass rate. Again, I'm not saying it's going to translate. It's going to be the same exact play calling, but at least you have something to give you optimism there. And he's been in his career for whatever reason. Trevor Lawrence has just had a really bad success rate on his end zone throws. I don't maybe he's bad at it. Maybe he is, but he's thrown the ball a lot in the end zone. His completion percentage is horrible. So I'm hoping that the yards per carry come back up and he's more like a 350 yard rusher if he throws. There were only two quarterbacks that had 4,000 yards and 350 rushing yards last year. I think he could easily be in that group. He's thrown for 4,000 yards twice in his career and I just think Liam cone is going to bring out the best in him and he's got a wide receiver that's going to be drafted in the first round in a lot of drafts. Still has good weapons. I I I think Lawrence is going to be a stream stream worthy quarterback. Olave went as wide receiver 23 in our latest half PPR mock draft. To me I drafted him 47th overall. I think that's where he belongs. I don't think he's going to be great. Kellen Moore is probably going to be his head coach it seems. We'll talk about that when it happens. Is another guy who doesn't get enough red zone or green zone or end zone targets. But that changed for Terry McLaurin. I think Chris Olave is basically Terry McLaurin. Reliable wide receiver he should be. I think he'll be something like wide receiver 20 and DK Metcalf I also think will be something like wide receiver 20. He went as wide receiver 32 63rd overall in our latest half PPR mock draft. He was pretty good the first half of the year before his injury. I don't expect anything from Tyler Lockett at this point. They're going to throw the ball less. They want to run the ball more. I know that. But it's going to be really those two main guys as I see it now, JSN and DK Metcalf. He might be second on the team in targets. I still think he can get to 120 targets and be a top 24 wide receiver. He'll be a good value if he makes it to round six. Bam.

[Dave]

That's like the the least inspiring group of bounce backs I've ever seen in my entire life. Like these guys are going to be low end starters or high end bench players for you. Get excited people.

[Adam]

I I see that and I will say this. When I sent the email with the names Lawrence I wasn't gonna make the case for Lawrence is like a top five guy. But Olave and Metcalf, I was like a little disappointed when I did the research and what I felt their upside could be because Metcalf is only been great when he has had great quarterback play. And he's not going to have great quarterback play in my opinion. And he's probably going to be second on the team in targets. Olave, again, I just think he needs better targets. But I do think, like one thing I think is going to change for Olave, I don't think he's going to be out targeted by Rashid Shahid. And that was the case in the first five games of the season when everyone was healthy. That's. That's going to change. Rashid Shahid's target rate was way too high for a guy who had an A dot over 17 yards. But yeah, I think they could be good values that people overlook because they're not exciting. Especially Olave and Metcalf. The shine has worn off. And honestly, you. You look at a guy like Terry McLaurin and you see the talent that he had and you couldn't predict that he was going to have this kind of season. But you could say, you know, you could say with Olavier Meccaf that they have a pretty good floor as a reliable number two wide receiver and maybe they will have that surprising McLaurin like season because they are super talented players. It could happen for them. So for example, he went after Cooper Cup, Chris Olavi. There's no chance I take Cooper cup ahead of Chris Olave. I'd probably take Metcalf over Cooper cup at this point. And they went like 12 spots apart in.

[Jamie]

Yeah, that, that's easy. I, I think for most people to make that choice, it is funny that you have Olave, Metcalf because one is losing Kubiak and one is gaining Kubiak. I do think that there's still a lot of upside with these guys. You know, Olave clearly was drafted last year as somebody that we thought was going to have the ability to have a breakout season. The one thing that I think is different with the McLaurin comparison is McLaurin got a quarterback change. Yeah, these two guys are not getting quarterback changes, you know, so they're still stuck with Derek Carr and Geno Smith, respectively. And as you just alluded to, Metcalf has not been great with subpar quarterback play. So can Metcalf, or excuse me, can Gino Smith get back to what he showed in his first season as the starter in Seattle, which was still a very good year for Metcalf. It was before JSN ascended to the, you know, level that he's at right now. I don't think Olave's going to lose targets significantly to Rashid Shahid. Their receiving core is abysmal right now. So, you know, there, there's a lot to like still about a lobby situation and Metcalf situation, I think based on the cost. The thing about Lawrence is he's probably, you know, we, we started the show about, you know, Matthew Stafford and I wonder where, you know, those two guys will come out in comparison to each other. Based on how people draft. My guess is more people will lean toward Lawrence because we'll get a lot of off season hype again because Cohen there, Brian Thomas and, and Lawrence were never really on the same page. I hope that that's something that materializes because all of Brian Thomas's best games came with Mac Jones. Will Evan Ingram stay? Will Christian Kirk stay? You know, you mentioned the receiving core there, so there's, there's some things that could be in, in flux. So these guys all do qualify. You know, I'll be a little bit more positive than he was as, as bounce back guys. I'm much more interested in the receivers than Lawrence, but I can certainly see myself, you know, if I have a, a deep enough bench, you know, we're in, in the six plus bench, you know, formats that if I want to take a second quarterback with upside and I like my starter, you know, so it's a throwaway pick essentially that Lawrence could certainly be one of those guys that if he hits, he could still hit big. But that's just, we're, we're running out of time for him to, you know, prove that at this point.

[Adam]

Sorry, Heath, before you jump in, I got to go to break. So quick commercial break. And then Heath will talk about Lawrence, Solove, Metcalf, whoever he wants to talk about. And then we'll read a couple of emails@fantasy footballbsi.com and we'll be right back on Fantasy Football today.

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[Adam]

Heath, tear it apart.

[Dave]

No, I don't want to tear it apart. I'll just say that like if you don't count the game that where he got hurt. Trevor Lawrence basically averaged 18 fantasy points per game last year which was QB19. He had his highest yards per attempt of his career last year. He had his second highest touchdown rate of his career last year. I just like I think you were we're using him bouncing back to he just kind of was what he has been last year.

[Adam]

So yeah, I'm hoping he can bounce back to 2022 when he was 12th per game, 11th per game. He had four 100 yards, 25 touchdowns, eight interceptions and he had 291 rushing yards and five rushing touchdowns. He's been pretty good with rushing touchdowns probably based on his last three seasons, probably get about four rushing touchdowns. So I'm hoping he can bounce back to 2022. He was number seven quarterback overall, number 11 per game but also I, I talked about lessons learned. One of the lessons learned that I said yesterday was we don't really. We're not great at evaluating players because it's situations and coaches and talent around them matter so much. And he's had a really bad offensive line and it's possible he's had a bad coach. So I do think he's got the potential to be the next Baker Mayfield or the next Sam Darnold. I'm sorry, I'm not giving up on Trevor Lawrence yet. I think if he has right now I'm thinking that he's a top 15ish quarterback. But I still think he could be that big surprise and have a huge year. I, I mean good. If anybody has all 22. Watch the first touchdown catch of the year that Brian Thomas had week one against the Dolphins. This is one of the most underrated throws that I've seen all season. Unbelievable. This guy is so talented. Just has to put it together. You can. I understand. You can laugh at me. I've been on this hill for three years. So.

[Dave]

No I'm not, I'm not laughing at you. I just like we all have guys that. I think it's okay to do that. That's the nice thing. Like people a quarterback's terrible as a rookie. You can just cite Josh Allen.

[Adam]

Yeah.

[Dave]

But Quarterbacks throws 2, 000 passes in the NFL and shows himself to be average. You can just say Baker Mayfield and Sam Darnold turn out to be good in good situations. So I, I think it's fine. I'm not going to laugh at you anymore. I think Olave is a good like he only he was like nine fantasy points per game last year. That's a very good bounce back candidate. He'll probably be a low end number two again. I don't know what to expect in the Seattle situation because I do think we're like as you've talked about we're going to get a more run heavy offense.

[Adam]

Oh yeah.

[Dave]

And so it really is going to be a battle between DK and JSN because I don't think the number two wide receiver in this offense is going unless they have a Rasheed Shahid type impact where it's just a bunch of big plays. I don't know that the number two wide receiver is going to be that good.

[Jamie]

I also don't think we saw the best of Kingsbury Kubiak's offense just because you had Car getting injured. You had Olave getting injured, you had Shahid getting injured. You Know, it was just a mess all across the board at different times. But a lot of, you know, you know, big, big time, you know, misses for. For several players. So it's certainly. It's certainly there's. There's still potential for these guys. They're just. They're very talented receivers. You know, that's the thing, you know, and so I. I didn't really agree with your. Your scent, your. Your sentiment that the. The shine is off these guys. They're still. I. I think a lot of people that will be interested in them at the right cost.

[Adam]

Well, look, I. I don't have much to base it on. I couldn't get the results. I don't know if you can get them the results of the PPR mock draft we did. You have to renew the league because I got locked out. But the half. PBR mock draft, the stories published on the website, and I don't know how far Olave would have fallen. I took him 47th, and then Metcalf went 63rd. I think I said he went round.

[Jamie]

Six, so that seems unrealistic.

[Adam]

I have absolutely no idea. It doesn't seem that unrealistic to me, honestly, like.

[Jamie]

Well, if you. If you're saying that that Cooper cup went two rounds ahead of him.

[Adam]

Of Metcalfe. Yeah, one.

[Jamie]

That's unrealistic.

[Adam]

One pick ahead of. Of Olave. One or two pics out of Olave. Can you get. Can you get the PPR results or. No?

[Jamie]

Probably not.

[Adam]

All right, see if you can. I'm gonna read some emails. Fantasy footballbsi.com this is from. Ooh, I don't have a name on this one. Sorry. Hey, Manny. Moe and Jack. Manny Mo. I'm just kidding. This is the Pep Boys I just picked up and. Right. You know, remember the Pep Boys with those big heads? Yeah. I picked up an orphan Dynasty team and I could.

[Dave]

I've been playing really hoping that the day before we do a mailbag that I've been advertising all month long that you would just read the Dynasty questions we have in the email.

[Adam]

Are you using this one?

[Dave]

Yes.

[Adam]

Oh, skipping it. Watch the Dynasty show tomorrow. Sorry about that. All right, then. We got this email from Scott last year, our rookie draft. After our rookie draft, I traded lad McConkey, which was my 10th pick. Oh, you're using this one, too.

[Jamie]

Emails tomorrow. See you guys.

[Dave]

Yeah, I can send out a Twitter request for Dynasty questions.

[Adam]

I just.

[Dave]

I just. I just searched through our. Our emails and looked for the questions that were about Dynasty and thought that I would use them for the Dynasty mailbag tomorrow. That's. That's okay.

[Adam]

I didn't think you got all of those emails.

[Dave]

Well, I have to search for them. They don't like. They don't just show up in my inbox regularly.

[Adam]

Oh, okay. Okay.

[Jamie]

So just. Just. Just to recap today, he did not know we were talking about bounce backs until you sent him an email yesterday. You did not know that he is doing a Dynasty mailbag show tomorrow and stole all of his Dynasty email questions, correct?

[Adam]

Yeah, I actually think I did know that.

[Dave]

Yeah, I told him. I mentioned it on this show on Tuesday or Monday when he asked me what's going on with FFT Dynasty this week.

[Adam]

Man, Jamie, why can't we get the results of this draft? I'm so curious. All right, well, how you guys. What are you guys up to this weekend?

[Jamie]

A lot of sports. A lot of kid sports.

[Dave]

No basketball for me this weekend.

[Jamie]

I am one child traveling with. With my wife. They're going away. Going to Philly to celebrate the Eagles.

[Adam]

I'm just gonna look at. Sorry. I don't care what you guys are saying. I was just looking at other rankings. Yeah, I'm looking at Mike Clay's rankings for 2025 from ESPN. He has DK Metcalf is wide receiver 27, and Chris Olave as wide receiver 28. See, looking at fantasy pros right now, they have olave as wide receiver 35, and Metcalf as wide receiver 24.

[Dave]

Okay, so three of those four are pretty much in range with your expectations, right? Like, 27 is basically a low. And number two, wide receiver.

[Adam]

Yeah. Yeah. All right. I think they'd be good value. They're going, like, on Mike Clay's rankings. They're right ahead of Jerry Judy, Jameson Williams, Roma Dunes, A Jalen Waddle.

[Dave]

I'd rather have waddle.

[Jamie]

Yeah. At least we didn't have construction going on in today's show.

[Adam]

Dan Schneier sitting at a construction zone yesterday. Oh. All right, listen, I gotta go. This has been fun. I gotta go.

[Jamie]

Great emails. Good job.

[Adam]

I'll do a Dynasty mailbag in five minutes if anybody wants that.

[Jamie]

You guys should do it. Adam, I think. I think you should go on the show with Ethan and do the mailbag with him.

[Adam]

That's fine. I will.

[Dave]

Fantastic.

[Adam]

Oh, what time?

[Dave]

11:30. Same time. We do FFT Dynasty every day.

[Adam]

I think that's okay. I have a lot going on tomorrow. I'm not sure I could commit to this.

[Dave]

Yeah, I. I would love to see what you're a lot going on.

[Adam]

I have, like, I have the appointment, the plumber coming between 8 and 10, the terminator between 9 and 12, and a contractor coming sometime around then too. So it's really out of my hands. Yeah. Busy day.

[Dave]

Construction zone. Yeah.

[Adam]

There we go. All right, we'll talk to you all tomorrow on Dynasty. And we'll talk to you on Monday on Fantasy football today.

[Jamie]

See ya.

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[Jamie]

I don't want to get promoted.

[Adam]

I want to stay charmingly insubordinate.

[Dave]

I'm okay.

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