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Fantasy Football Today
November One-Man-Mailbag! Your questions about long-term rebuilding, trading older running backs and MORE!
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- [00:01]
Heath Cummings
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- [00:42]
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- [01:12]
Unknown Speaker 2
I've been eating at Chipotle for at least 15 years and for me, chicken burrito, white rice, guac salsa. That's my order. But I tried something new the other day. It's Chipotle's Smoked Brisket and I'll be trying it again and, and again and again. It's so good. Seasoned with Mexican spices and finished with a smoky sauce with chipotle peppers. It's got so much flavor and it's got spice, but it's not too spicy. Now you trust me for fantasy advice. I give even better food advice. Go get Chipotle's Smoked Brisket. But Chipotle Smoked Brisket is only here for a limited time, so you need to go try it. It's available in all Chipotle restaurants, the Chipotle app or chipotle.com I'm a changed man. I am a brisket believer. Go get the Chipotle Smoked Brisket right now.
- [02:08]
Heath Cummings
Welcome to Fantasy Football Today Dynasty. I am your host, Heath Cummings and it's another one man mailbag. And this one's just a little bit different. 100% of the questions that I've got here today came from blue Sky. I did just want to say like I man, I put out a request for mailbag questions. I got way more than I could answer. So if I don't get to your question here, I will try to go back through the thread and answer those questions that I don't answer on the podcast. But if you want to get a question Dynasty question specifically answered, I seem to see a lot more of those questions over on Blue Sky. Go follow me over there. It's the same name as it is everywhere else and we'll have a good time. Also, we are broadcasting on Twitter. I'll mention that again later. If you're on Twitter and you want to ask a question, we're going to answer chat questions a little bit later in the show and I can only see those if you're on YouTube. So show up in the YouTube chat, ask me your questions and I will get to as many of those as I can after we get through our Blue sky questions. We've got questions today about Naji Harris, about Malik Neighbors, about Nico Collins, about Juwan Jennings. We're going to try to help contenders and rebuilders both. And I thought we'd start with some, you know, quick waiver wire thoughts because we do have some very, very low rostered players that have suddenly become fantasy relevant. And so I want to take a second to talk about those guys. The first One is Tommy DeVito. He is going to be the starting quarterback for the New York Giants. Daniel Jones has been benched. He will probably will be cut in the off season. We'll see if Daniel Jones makes a Sam Darnold or Gino Smith or Baker Mayfield like return. But for now it's Tommy DeVito's job for the New York Giants. And it's, it's kind of interesting because if you look at last year, it was a much, much worse situation. Tommy DeVito was better as a passer than Daniel Jones. He threw four more yards per game than Daniel Jones, averaged more yards per attempt than Daniel Jones. Now what DeVito did last year as a passer was worse than what Jones has done this year. But DeVito didn't have Malik Neighbors last year. So I am a little bit interested in a super flex league. He's obviously a must roster player. If he wasn't rostered in your league, he might even be a top 24 quarterback this week because there's only 26 quarterbacks that are actually playing. But I do think there's a shot that with Neighbors and Wandale Robinson and it's still a little bit better offensive line than it was last year. I think that we see Tommy DeVito produce like top 20 quarterback numbers. I'd be spending just a little bit of coin on him in a super flex league specifically if I was contending and I was a little bit weak at that QB2 position. Tommy DeVito in a super flex league may just be the prize of the waiver wire at running back. It's a little bit more complicated this week because we had a weird situation where Alexander Madison and Zemir White both left their Week 11 game with an injury. That meant Amir Abdullah was kind of the guy, but they just didn't run the ball very much. I don't know which of these guys is going to play and I don't know which of these guys is rostered in your league, but what I will say is I think Alexander Madison, Zamir White, Amir Abdullah and Dylan Lobby probably all need to be rostered in your Dynasty league until we get more confirmation of who's going to play. It seems like Madison dealing with a high ankle sprain is the least likely to play this week and so if White is able to get active then he'll at least have a chance to score a touchdown. Hasn't had a very good rushing average, doesn't have a very good matchup. If both White and Madison are out, Amir Abdullah might be a top 30 running back and actually a good flex play. Abdullah is available pretty much everywhere. He's been very efficient as a rusher this year, largely because he's only used on passing downs. But I would think that you might want to flex Abdullah and then Lobby is just one of those guys. We may talk about him again later in the show with some some stashes for 2025. He's just someone I want to make sure is on a roster. A lot of times we see these third round rookie picks and I'm talking dynasty drafts, not the NFL draft, but these third round rookie picks that we get to this point in the season and people just don't have the room to roster them anymore. They've got too many injuries or they want to go pick up a Tommy DeVito and so those guys get dropped. I want to make sure I'm rostering as many of those as I can, especially on those rebuilding teams. A little bit higher owned guy, but for shallow Dynasty leagues, Elijah Moore, about 22% rostered. I think in CBS leagues, another good game has consistently seen an average of about 10 targets per game with Jameis Winston. I think Jameis is going to keep throwing it 40 times per game for the remainder of the season. Go make sure Elijah Moore is rostered in your shallow Dynasty league and maybe even consider starting him as a number three wide receiver this week. Despite what is actually a pretty Terrible matchup against the Pittsburgh Steelers. And then finally we saw Jake Ferguson leave Monday Night Football with a concussion. We hope he's okay. Luke Skunmaker was somebody I really, really liked coming out of college. He moved right into the Ferguson role last night. 18% target share for him. I would expect it's going to be CD Lamb and then Schoonmaker as the number two target. And so I would view him if Ferguson's out this week as a top 12 tight. He was a, he's a younger player too, so could be good for a rebuilder. Probably needs to be rostered in at least half of the deep dynasty leagues. So go, go see if he's available again. That's Tommy DeVito for Super Fleck leagues. Only Elijah Moore in shallow leagues right now. Make sure all the Raiders running backs are rostered. And then the second year tight end for the Cowboys. We've talked about this a lot with Dallas, like it doesn't matter who the guy is. Jason Whitten at 38 years old or something. A borderline top 12 tight end, Dalton Schultz, a borderline top 12 tight end. I think Blake Jarwin had half a season as a borderline top 12 tight end. Jake Ferguson walks right into that role. And so I don't think it's any different. It's just whoever the next guy is, that's what happens in this Cowboys offense. Let's get to our first question from a good friend of the show, actually multi time guest of the show and will be on next Tuesday's show. It's been a long time since we talked to John Bosch. We'll actually talk to him him live next week, but we'll answer his question as the first question from Blue sky this week. Who is the one player at each position currently not in the top tier at their position that could get there by the start of the 2025 season. And I thought this was interesting first off because I'm not sure we all agree on who the top tier at each position is. So I thought I'd kind of tell you that and then tell you who I thought could jump into that tier. So at quarterback there's, there's a really big top tier right now. I'd put Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, Jaden Daniels, Jalen Hertz, Patrick Mahomes and Joe Burrow. All six is a six man top tier at the quarterback position. And if I was saying the most likely guy to jump into that tier by the start of the 2025 season, it's somebody that I in error already had there once in his career. Anthony Richardson. Just a disastrous turn of events. Earlier this year he got benched for Joe Flacco. The team legitimately thought Flacco might help them win. That tells you how bad Richardson was. But you look at it after last week now about half of his career games he's been in the 29 Fantasy Point range or higher. Anthony Richardson, if he can just get bring the lows up to where his bad games are, 15 points looks like a top five fantasy quarterback. He's got the age, he's got the rushing upside. If Anthony Richardson finishes this season on a heater in games that probably don't matter to the Colts, then you could absolutely see Richardson in that top tier. Maybe not that far behind a Jaden Daniels or a Jalen Hurts as that rushing quarterback who can also throw it just a little bit. And so if, if I was betting on somebody to make that jump at quarterback, it would be Anthony Richardson at the running back position. I've kind of got a four man top tier. Bijan Robinson, Jameer Gibbs, Breeze hall have been in that tier for a long time. Devon Hn showing the ability recently to be a workhorse back has jumped into the tier. I had a hard time finding current NFL running backs who I thought could jump into the top tier. So I'd say the guy who's most likely to do it by the 2025 season, who's not there right now is Ashton Gentee. Heck I has been so good at Boise State, if some good offense makes him a first round pick and hands him the ball 15 times a game in week one, he's absolutely going to be in the top tier as a top five dynasty running back. Maybe cheating a little bit by saying a rookie, but I think he's the right answer at wide receiver. My top tier is Malik Neighbors. Not number one but Justin Jefferson, Jamar Chase, Malik Neighbors. I would hear an argument for CD Lamb or Munro St. Brown or Nico Collins, but they're not quite there right now. I think the most likely guy to jump is actually Harrison Jr. Who's been up and down. We thought he was the best rookie wide receiver in this class and he's not performed that way so far. I thought, you know, the way opposing defenses are double teaming him at a higher rate than basically any player in the NFL gives me great optimism that eventually he is going to be the guy that we thought he was going to be. Kyler's playing really good football right now. If you told me that Marvin Harrison Jr. Has three or four good games to end the year. I think he's probably a top five dynasty wide receiver going into next year and probably in that elite tier, a tight end. The top tier is Brock Bowers. There's nobody close. The second tier is Trey McBride. There's nobody really close to him. I don't think anybody's jumping into either one of those tiers. I feel pretty confident we're heading into 20, 25. It's going to be Bowers obviously over everyone. McBride obviously number two, and then we'll figure out three through 12 at the tight end position. We're going to answer a lot more of your questions that I see the chat filling up with questions as well. That's awesome. We will get to those and more right after the break.
- [12:39]
Unknown Speaker 2
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- [14:51]
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- [15:23]
Heath Cummings
Nope.
- [15:23]
Unknown Speaker 2
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- [16:14]
Heath Cummings
We are back and we've got a question from James. Doing a long rebuild, aiming for the 2027 draft. 12 Team PPR Super Flex, tight End Premium. What a great league where my best tradable assets are all young. He's got hn. He's got Anthony Richardson. He's got Worthy. He's got jsn. He's got Drake May, Jaden Reed. That's not a bad core for a group you're trying to compete in 2027. He's already collected some pieces down the road. He's in 10th place. Wants to know if he needs to sell anybody else. The one name that stood out to me is more about his position than the name, but it's Devon hn. If I don't think I'm competing next year, I don't really want to roster any running Backs. Now Achan's a younger back and so we might feel pretty secure, but we've had a lot of guys that we thought were surefire top five running backs at 22 or 23 years old and two years later they were not in our top 20 in the dynasty rankings. Running back changes just happen that fast and so I would, I'd be getting rid of my running backs and HN should bring you an enormous haul. It's like a contender able to add a young piece that also might be a league winner this year. They should pay a ton for that. I wouldn't sell him cheap at all, but I think you could really maybe get an elite wide receiver or a very good player another position and a first round pick like shoot for the moon with Devon Achan. But if I was in that position, not competing in 2026, aiming for 2027, I'm pretty much always trying to get all of the running backs off my team. I know John Bosh is going to be on next week. He's kind of the first person who said that to me. I agree. And so trade the running backs. I'm pretty good with holding everyone else. Maybe Jaden Reed, but he's not been good enough lately. I'm afraid his value is too low. Kevin talks about, wants to talk about running backs. Yes. What do you do with the older running backs like Christian McCaffrey, Derek Henry as a contender after this season is over? And so this is I've got several of these teams and a couple of them have Derek Henry. One of them has Christian McCaffrey and it is hard, especially if you don't win and you get to the end of the season and now you've got 28, 29, 30 year old running backs, he says. Are you looking to sell regardless or are you writing these guys into the sun? How do you handle aging running backs on your dynasty rosters? Well, first off, it's kind of. It's pretty much two paths for me. Contend or sell immediately. I just traded James Connor to Dan this morning. Connor and kelsey for a 2025 first. Yes. I tried to get Brian Thomas Jr. He, he stuck by what he said he would do was the 2025 first. I lost again this week. I'm not going to make the playoffs. I got to get those two guys off my team. And so I'm probably, if I look at my roster and I think I might be able to contend next year. I'm just going to hope that Derrick Henry can keep defeating Father Time for at least one more season. I'm going to hope that Christian McCaffrey can give me the season I thought he was going to have this year. Next year I will hold as long as I think my team's still a contender because I think it's really hard to sell those guys in the off season. I paid a second round pick for Derek Henry in the off season and was a little nervous about that. It's been a great, great trade but I wouldn't give more than those and so I wouldn't expect anybody else to either. Next question comes in. How do you value high value rentals and trades? For example, Juwan Jennings is Putting up wide receiver 1 numbers, wide receiver 2 numbers but probably we won't next season. I have several offers for him but not seeing eye to eye on the compensation. So currently Juwan Jennings is my wide receiver 54 and that tells you pretty much nothing about the answer to that question. This is a point that I really want to make. When you're looking at the trade chart, when you're looking at rankings, you need to be prepared to overpay in either direction. It really depends on where your team is. I for Joanne Jennings as a contender, I might will be willing to go trade a high second round pick. I might be able to be willing to go trade an injured younger wide receiver because I want to win the title this year. At the same time, if I'm not really a contender and I've got Juan Jennings on my team, I, I just need to, I need to get something for him because I'm not sure what he's going to be in the future. So I, I think players like that, their value is really hard to capture in a trade shark. It's really hard to capture in rankings but if you're going for it, you should be willing to give more than you would accept if you're not, if that makes any sense. Again, wide receiver 54 for me right now he's right in the same range as like a Devonte Adams, probably in the same range as a Cooper cup guys who I think might have one more year. It's possible that Jennings is just the number one wide receiver from the 49ers from now on, but I don't actually believe that. I don't think you do either. A second round pick seems like a good trade for Juwan Jennings. We got Hassan asks the best players to stash now for the 2025 season and this is a difficult question because how deep is your league but I think if, if I can go get JJ McCarthy for a second round pick. After watching him be drafted as a first round pick, I think Sam Darnold has shown us what this offense can be with even mediocre quarterback play and Sam Darnold's also not done enough to where I think he's going to get a long term deal. So I expect McCarthy to start next year and I expect McCarthy to be very good. I would like to try to trade a second round pick to stash him for next year at running back. I mentioned Dill Albi. I think Sean Tucker showed us just a glimpse and now it's kind of fallen off, went on a buy, may have been dropped. I'd like to stash both of those guys. I think there's big time upside for Sean Tucker. Let's just get him to a situation where he can touch the ball a little more. Jermaine Burton, Javon Baker, two wide receivers who have done almost nothing as number as rookie wide receivers. If I could send a a third for them or if they're one of those guys were a casualty on a contenders roster that needed to make a waiver wire pickup. I'd like to pick them up. I'd like to hold them until week one of next year. Still think there's immense upside for both Burton and Baker and then Ben Senate. I think he should be very encouraged despite the fact that he can't take the job from Zach Ertz. I thought he needed an Erz injury but Ertz's role in this offense is really exciting for me as someone who drafted Ben Senate and so if the person who did draft him has gotten upset and dropped him or is willing to give him up up for almost nothing. I'd like to have him on my team because I think next year he might be in that earth role. He might be seeing a 15 to 20% target share. Don't let what Brock Bowers did this year, what Sam Laporta did last year make you forget that rookie tight ends are usually bad and often there are tight ends that are good later in their career that were awful or irrelevant as rookies. So really any of those rookies just haven't Sanders probably done a little bit too much lately so he probably doesn't count. But any of those rookie tight ends I would be interested in adding we got one more question here I think before we get to the rapid fire questions. Joe asks how aggressive would you be trying to tier up into top tier receivers when you have plenty of depth and he's got London pickens Higgins, Flowers, Garrett Wilson, dk, Ridley, Addison and he's always picking the wrong guys to start. But others want egregious overpays to get into the top tier. And yes Joe, they should. That's the way that this works. Whenever I put the trade chart out, I always like to remind people if you're doing a 2 for 1 deal you should be willing to pay at least 10% more. If you're doing a 3 for 1 deal, you should be willing to pay at LEAST 20% more. Whoever's getting the best player in the deal should be willing to overpay. And so I listen I think there's you can make an argument that London and Pickens are too close to the top tier to be doing that with them. But Higgins, Flowers, even Garrett Wilson with the way that Aaron Rodgers looks right now, definitely dk, Ridley, Addison. Like I am paying up to get into the top tier with with pretty much any of those guys and I'm okay if I feel like I'm overpaying that. That just should be I think part of the expectation. Always be willing to pay up to consolidate good players for great players. You can't pay too much. Let's go with some rapid fire questions again. All today's questions coming from Blue Sky. Appreciate those we do have. I see 7 not is doing a great job of of starring your chat questions that he thinks are good. So I will go through the chat questions after this rapid fire section. Is Noah Gray a legit buy for future looking teams? I do think it seems more likely than not that Kelsey's gone next year. I don't know for sure that Noah Gray gets a 25 target share if that happens. I think Noah Gray is a definite stash. I'd be okay if you wanted to trade a third for him. I wouldn't give anything more than that. We get a question about Malik neighbors. Two of them actually. Momo asked how do you rank neighbors now given future future QB uncertainty And we had another question Nico or neighbors And I think that's a great one. Right now I have neighbors as wide receiver three in my dynasty rankings. I talked about him as a tier one guy. Nico kind of a tier one B guy. He's my wide receiver six they are close enough that I think this could change by the end of the year. But my real thought is that we've probably seen the quarterback play in New York be as bad as it's going to be in Malik Neighbors NFL career and he's still a top 12 wide receiver for the season. The fact that they have gone to Tommy DeVito and seem to maybe be committing to the Tank for the first time and they should have done it three years ago. Like he might actually have a good quarterback Malik Neighbors as soon as next year. I'm not sure his future quarterback situation is any more concerning than say a Justin Jefferson's or that's probably it. But Jefferson's in that top tier also. So I'm viewing Malik Neighbors as a top three Dynasty wide receiver. He is number three. I've got Nico Collins at number six. They're both awesome. I wouldn't make a strong bet on which one I'll like more in six months we got a contender. Traded Trevor Lawrence and I'm first for Caleb Williams and a mid second 12 team Super Flex League. How'd I do? I like it. I'd give it an A minus and there's a little bit of risk that Trevor Lawrence comes back after his buy and is better than Caleb Williams the rest of the season and so you hurt yourself as a contender. But I do strongly prefer Caleb and Dynasty over Lawrence. I was encouraged. Caleb Williams seven and a half yards per attempt in the first game after they fired the offensive coordinator. That was his third most efficient week as a passer. He also ran more than he has and so I do think we'll see a strong finish from Caleb Williams. I definitely rather have Caleb Williams in 2025 than Lawrence. A minus. That's a good trade. IDP center asked what's Naji Harris's value if the Steelers don't resign him? I have him at RB32 right now. That's pricing in a little bit of risk. So I think if he, if he told me the Steelers had given him a contract, he'd probably be at RB25 which is kind of where he has lived. Like a low end RB2. If he's not resigned then his value is really going to be determined by where he lands. I could see a better situation where we like Naji more but there's there's more risk. So that's why he's RB32 right now in my rankings. Pricing in that possibility that he's in a worse situation. But I, I think more likely than not he's not. Frank says 10 team what do you do with CD Lamb? Start him every week. My friend Joey Wright had a great post on Blue sky this morning Talking about the CD Lamb history with Cooper Rush. He was 16 PPR fantasy points per game in 2022. The first game with him this year. He had a terrible game because the sun was in his eyes and he didn't catch a touchdown. He catches that touchdown. He scored 15 fantasy points in that game. Scored 18 fantasy points last night. CD Lam is a must start number one wide receiver and a top four dynasty wide receiver. That'll do it for the rapid fire from Blue sky. And I've got 11 of your questions marked here. I might even go a little bit longer. So if you got if you still have a question here in the chat, now would be a great time to ask it. If you're watching on Twitter and you have a question, come over to YouTube, join the chat. Maybe like maybe subscribe. That'd be fantastic. I would really appreciate it. And then ask a question and I'll try to get to it before the end of the show. Vinnie says Vinnie and the Jets Gus Edwards or Roshan Johnson for next week and beyond. So for dynasty purposes, strongly prefer Roshan Johnson and next week have Roshan Johnson ranked higher. The interesting thing and I wouldn't have thought this coming into the year, Roshan Johnson's a goal line Becky. Guess what? Edwards is not. Dobbins has scored eight touchdowns. Edwards has zero. Roshan just as likely if not more likely to get a carry inside the five is DeAndre Swift. So I would prefer to start Roshan this year and because of the age difference I'd rather have Roshan long term. Tristan says should I trade a Monroe and Jonathan Taylor for Mike Evans and James Connor? This is not a Dynasty question. Tristan, that's okay. Tied for second in Redraft. I would rather have and JT and Redraft and certainly in Dynasty Edward says he's offered Terry McLaurin for Jordan Addison and Cortland Sutton. Should I accept? He has Puka Saint Brown and Juwan Jennings. So yeah, I think that's a good deal. I I don't have probably too much difference between McLaren and Addison in Dynasty but I would definitely I'm assuming if you're making this deal you're contending. If you're contending I I think I would do it if you're not I would rather have Addison effortless shots buckets like that Avatar as well. What should I do with a team that's one game back of the playoffs with aging vets and none of my own rookie picks? This I've got a confession because I talk on the show all the time about you don't want to be in the middle. I had too many teams this year that ended up in the middle and I've got a couple that are in this spot and one of them is that team that I just traded, Connor and Kelsey for a first. I I think you have to be really honest. Look at your schedule, look at your buy weeks. How many week 12 and week 14 buys do you have? How many of the the teams you're playing in week 12 and week 14? Do they have a bunch of guys on by? Do you actually have a chance to get into the playoffs and if it looks I would have to feel like I was like a 2 to 1 favorite to snatch that spot. I need to have very few week 12 buys, very few week 14 buys and be playing some weak teams and if that's the case then I'll go for it and just if it doesn't work we're probably in a two year rebuild. If I look at the schedule honestly and objectively and I really don't have a very good chance at all. I'm trying to consolidate Kelsey and Connor for a first just any running back 28 or older. I'm trying to get rid of them. Wide receivers 30 or older. I'm trying to get rid of them. I'm trying to. I might not get my own first round picks but I'd like to get some other people's and maybe don't make it a one year rebuild instead of a two. Salty Hooligan says Still thinking about selling Lamb. Sell or hold? I'm holding. As I said, I think he's a must start. I think He's a top 12 wide receiver this year. I think he's a top four wide receiver in Dynasty. Maybe if you're a contender and you want to sell for a couple of starters. But again I, I think Lamb's going to be very good the rest of the year. So I, I'm not. I'm not trading him to get a top 15 wide receiver that he might just be better than this year and then a lot better than for Dynasty purposes. So mostly holding. No one in my league wants Tyree Kill so I'm stuck. What's his dynasty value for 2025? This. This happens with older players sometimes through no fault of their own. Listen, Tua missed some time. Tyreek was bad in those games. He's come back. The offense hasn't been quite right. He finally had one good game. I think now's the time to try to sell him but I wouldn't give him away. Currently my wide receiver 18 in dynasty if I. I'd be thrilled if I could get any kind of first round pick for him. I don't think I would take two seconds unless I was in one of those situations where like my team's just a catastrophe because there is a risk that this is the, like, his value could continue to just go down. Ben asks, do you suggest a trade deadline for Dynasty? John Bosch and I were going to talk about that next week in depth. So make sure you tune in next Tuesday, 11:30 right here. But I, I kind of, I, I don't, I don't know, like, I have leagues that have both. I think the league should come to a decision themselves. I probably, like, if I had to make the executive decision myself, I would say no trade deadline. There are some negatives to it and I think some people who say no trade deadline just kind of ignore those. But overall, I would say no trade deadline. I slightly prefer over a very, very late trade deadline. And last question, traded Mostert mooney in a 2026 first for a 2025 second and Breece Hall a great job, Great way to finish the show. Thank you to everybody who sent in your blue sky questions. Thank you to everybody who was active here in the chat. Thank you to everybody who watched on Twitter. Thank you Donata for helping me get this all put together. We will talk to you guys next week.
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Unknown Speaker 1
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