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Our Top Eight Greatest Hits and Biggest Misses of 2024 (02/05 Fantasy Football Podcast)
00:55:22
We talk about some of our best (Mike Evans, Alvin Kamara, Terry McLaurin) and worst (Saquon Barkley, Amari Cooper, Anthony Richardson) calls of 2024 & a forecast for 2025
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- [00:00]
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- [01:30]
Adam
This is fantasy Football today from CBS Sports.
- [01:34]
Dave
What a play.
- [01:35]
Heath
Can you believe this? No, I can't.
- [01:38]
Adam
It's time to dominate your fantasy league.
- [01:41]
Heath
Off to the races and he stays on his feet. This is gonna go the distance.
- [01:45]
Adam
Now here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie and Heath.
- [01:51]
Heath
All right. It's our greatest hit show. Sort of. And biggest flops, biggest misses. Welcome to the show. We're gonna talk about two hits and two misses from 2024. And also talk about for 2025. Also might surprise you to know that Cooper cup who is apparently going to be traded, he was actually a top 25 receiver. 20? Yeah. 23. 23 per game in full PPR this past year. 25th per game in non PPR. What does he have left in the tank? We'll talk about it. As we welcome you to fantasy football today, presented by BetMGM, the sportsbook. Born in Vegas, it's. The full gang is here. Adam, Dave, Jamie and Heath. All right, so we got some coordinator news to talk about. We got, like I said, hits and misses. Heath, how you feeling? A few days out.
- [02:39]
Adam
You know, I've just been spending a lot of time thinking about what a great matchup this is, how. How privileged we are to get to watch it. Like these two teams, the amount of talent in the coaching staff, both teams, the.
- [02:56]
Heath
The.
- [02:57]
Adam
The quarterbacks, two of the best offensive lines. I asked my son this question this morning. If you took the Chiefs and the Eagles and coaching staffs, players, everything, and made an all star team and they played the rest of the league, who would win?
- [03:13]
Dave
The league?
- [03:14]
Heath
The league.
- [03:16]
Adam
I'm not sure.
- [03:17]
Heath
Wait, what did you say? The Chiefs.
- [03:19]
Adam
You got the. You had the best quarterback in the NFL. You had the best running back in the NFL. You have the best offensive line to be. The offensive line would be better than the leagues.
- [03:26]
Heath
This is a joke, right?
- [03:28]
Adam
No. Yeah. Chris Jones and Jalen Carter both on the defensive line.
- [03:34]
Heath
This is ridiculous.
- [03:35]
Adam
Like, I think people really understood sell how special this Eagles team is and the amount of talent that they have on it. It's just. It's going to be a phenomenal game, man.
- [03:43]
Jamie
Are you doing the reverse kibosh?
- [03:45]
Adam
No, just one of probably one of the best Super Bowls ever.
- [03:50]
Dave
So I'm doing. I'm doing DFS previews for each position.
- [03:53]
Adam
Yeah.
- [03:54]
Dave
And I found two very fun stats so far. Or facts, I guess. Do you know what Mahomes record is versus Vic Fangio?
- [04:02]
Heath
Oh, yeah. Undefeated as a starter. Right. It's 8. 0 or something.
- [04:06]
Dave
He's 8060 against the Broncos, 2. 0 against the Dolphins. Do you know the only team that Saquon Barkley's not facing the NFL?
- [04:14]
Heath
Oh, I guess it's the Chiefs.
- [04:16]
Dave
Yes. He missed the 2021 game with the Giants. He had the ankle injury. So the Chiefs is the only team that he has yet to face in the NFL. Trying to think anything else so far. I'm just through quarterbacks and running backs. Receivers will be up today.
- [04:31]
Heath
That's so interesting. I remembered the Daniel Jones interception in that Chiefs Giants game. I think it was a Monday night game. This is pathetic.
- [04:38]
Dave
You could have just said I remember the interception.
- [04:40]
Heath
Absolutely pathetic.
- [04:42]
Adam
Did you know Nick Sirianni is the winningest coach by winning percentage amongst all active coaches?
- [04:48]
Heath
No.
- [04:49]
Adam
Like 705 winning percentage in his career. The only coach over 700.
- [04:55]
Heath
Did you know that for a fact? It's arguable that the. That the. And I talked about that. We talked about this on Monday at the very end of the show. The Chiefs are not better than the Eagles in any single position. Quarterback.
- [05:08]
Adam
It's a fact. It's arguable.
- [05:11]
Heath
You. Well, that was the joke. It's a fact that it's arguable. But you could argue that based on the season they just had, that hurts is the better quarterback that the last two seasons.
- [05:19]
Adam
And you're gonna argue that Dallas got hurts better than Travis Kelsey.
- [05:23]
Heath
Yes, I. First of all, I wouldn't argue that I would give Mahomes the edge there, but, like, yeah, based on. You want to use, like, yards per target and stuff like that, who's been better this year? Definitely. I'm gonna guess it's Goddard. You know, you could. Yeah, you could argue that these two.
- [05:37]
Dave
Teams were one and two in fewest fantasy points allowed to running backs in the season. And the Eagles, including the playoffs, have allowed the fewest total touchdowns to running backs this season.
- [05:49]
Heath
Okay. Yeah. Eagles. Eagles are better. And Chiefs are going to win. We know this. All right, let's.
- [05:55]
Dave
Well, no, the. In this century, every team traveling west for the super bowl location has one.
- [06:05]
Heath
What?
- [06:06]
Dave
Yep.
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Heath
That's bizarre. The other stat, I think. I think I gave this last week that every. There's been three previous matchups, rematches of quarterbacks in the super bowl, and the quarterback who won the first one is three. Zero. I can't think of the third. It's Eli versus Brady. I'm guessing Aikman versus Jim Kelly. And I. I don't know, maybe something from the 70s or the 80s. I don't know. But think about it, folks. All right, anyway, seems like we're having some audio issues on YouTube, so we'll. We'll take a look into that. But in the meantime, let's go through our news and notes. Dave, you're very quiet today. What do you think about Cooper Cup? You're gonna have to Talk. Talk for 10 minutes.
- [06:53]
Jamie
Go talk for 10 minutes about Cooper Cup.
- [06:57]
Heath
One minute.
- [06:58]
Jamie
He's. It's over for him, man. He's. He's not the same guy that he was two years ago, three years ago. Whoever acquires him is going to need the Rams to eat a lot of that salary. And he's basically a glorified tight end at this point. I don't see him being rejuvenated and having an explosive element to his game. Again, that being said, he made a good Argument for three teams to get into the bidding for Cooper cup, but I'd be shocked if they gave up anything more than a day three pick.
- [07:34]
Adam
Yeah, I think that's the best part is that like the Rams have a history of trading older wide receivers for not very much and paying part of the salary. I think that's probably what they're expecting to do here. So if you can put him in a position on a team with a good young quarterback and a great deep threat where he gets to go be the number two option, I think he could still be a number three fantasy wide receiver.
- [08:01]
Dave
You see he posted something on Instagram wearing a Bill's hat.
- [08:05]
Adam
I don't know if I love that fit, but that would be like that obviously be great for Josh Allen maybe.
- [08:11]
Jamie
But I don't be great for Shakira or Kincaid.
- [08:14]
Adam
I see. I think Khalil Shahir might. I don't know.
- [08:18]
Dave
I don't know. We just, we just saw an old receiver with him and it wasn't very good with America.
- [08:22]
Adam
Right. Like I, my, my, my choices, Adam. And you can just poo poo all these. But my, my choices were Washington with Terry McLaurin as the one. So he doesn't have to be the one there. My second favorite. Oh, my third dark horse was, was Cincinnati. If T. Higgins leaves.
- [08:39]
Jamie
That was fun.
- [08:41]
Adam
And then the other one, I, I love Jacksonville. They'd have to cut Christian Kirk. I can't remember the third one, but I think it'd be fine as a number two sword area target. Yeah, Jacksonville wasn't on the list because they're already spending too much money on their wide receivers.
- [08:58]
Jamie
So like here's the question. If Jacksonville has to cut Christian Kirk to get Cooper cup, is that an upgrade for them going from Kirk to Cup?
- [09:07]
Dave
No.
- [09:07]
Adam
I wouldn't be surprised if Liam Cohen thinks it is.
- [09:10]
Jamie
Liam Cohen might think that it is, but just if you're looking at the talents, I agree with Jamie. I don't think it's an upgrade. And then I just, I think about all the receivers that are in this draft class. There are a lot of receivers that can be okay, you know, good hand slot types that can replace Cooper cup in la, if LA even wanted to do that. They've got Jordan Whittington there. He could be the guy that ends up replacing Cup. He did that already. So I don't know how big of a market there's going to be for Cooper Cup. I've got him in our Dynasty league. I am very worried that he's Going to sit on my bench the entire year.
- [09:45]
Heath
So. Yeah, I, I don't know if anybody wants. Watched any tape of Cooper cup lately. I did yesterday. He's. I said this during the season. I just think he looks really slow. But, but he can always say he's crafty. Right? He's crafty. I think if somebody gives you a little hope for Cooper cup, it's Keenan Allen and, you know, to a lesser degree, Adam Thielen. These guys, they're not what they used to be, but they're still like savvy. Yeah, go ahead.
- [10:12]
Adam
Houston was the other one.
- [10:14]
Heath
Houston.
- [10:14]
Dave
You know what also can make some sense is just because Josh McDaniels is there is New England.
- [10:21]
Adam
Yeah.
- [10:22]
Heath
I don't know if he's going to be scheme dependent or not, but the Rams are just really good at getting at scheming guys open. Right. Like the packers are really at that. So I'd like to see him go in this. In the McVeigh tree. That would be for me. I mean, that'd be something I'd be looking at. I have no idea what, what the Joe Brady offense is like, for example, compared to the McVeigh tree.
- [10:41]
Adam
The McVeigh tree is, is basically everywhere now. Like it's Houston, it's Atlanta, it's Jacksonville. There's others.
- [10:52]
Jamie
Could he go to San Francisco or the Shanahan Tree?
- [10:56]
Dave
Both.
- [10:57]
Adam
Yeah, I'll say. Those guys were all Rams guys, but.
- [11:02]
Heath
Yeah. Right. Well, it's Houston makes sense. Right. They have the Rams passing game coordinator. Right. As their, as their new offensive coordinator. So. All right, that'd be interesting. Okay, that's, that's Cooper Cup. Miles Garrett also wants a trade. He's requested Cooper Cup. I wouldn't say wants to trade. They're going to trade him, but Miles Garrett has requested a trade. We got some coordinator news. We got the jets going through the Detroit tree. Now they're hiring Tanner Eng Strand as their offensive coordinator. He has not called plays in the NFL. He was their passing game coordinator for Detroit. Detroit, meanwhile, you know, obviously they must have felt pretty good about John Morton. John Morton was the passing game coordinator for Denver. You think Detroit, maybe they would have hired in house, but they went out of their house to Denver and they took John Morton, who has previously worked with Dan Campbell in New Orleans and in Detroit. He called plays for the Jets. They didn't have a great roster that year and they were 24th in points per game. Tampa Bay stayed in house. They promoted passing game coordinator Josh Grizzard to their offensive coordinator. Spot. And we thought the Raiders were going to hire Daryl Bevel. They did not. They hired Chip Kelly, who was Ohio State's offensive coordinator, but also was a head coach in the NFL for four years and was really successful. Chip Kelly with three years with the Eagles and then not successful in one year with the 49ers, but he took over a team that the previous year they were last in the NFL in scoring. They ended up 27th in scoring in his year. And then you had the Jaguars hiring a defensive coordinator. We don't care about that. The Cowboys hired Arizona offensive line coach Clayton Adams as their offensive coordinator, but Brian Schottenheimer will be his offense. So the jets going with Tanner Angstrom from Detroit, the Lions bringing in John Morton from the Broncos. Tampa Bay promoting in house Josh Grizzard, and the Raiders hiring Chip Kelly. Jamie, what stands out to you there?
- [12:58]
Dave
I hope Chip Kelly gets some players because it can be fun. As you said, you know, a lot of staying in house. The Detroit situation I don't love. You know, I was hoping they would stay, you know, with a similar, you know, stay in house, I guess, and they had some options. The, the jets coordinator now was, you know, I think the favorite. You know, David mentioned that for a long time that it seemed as if he was going to be. I'm not going to pronounce the last name, but Tanner, whatever was going to be the guy that. That was going to replace Ben Johnson. So hopefully nothing dramatic happens from a negative standpoint in Detroit, but I'm excited to see Chip Kelly back home plays in the NFL. He did a great job at Ohio State. Obviously had, you know, the. Some of the best players in the. In. In college football. Hopefully that continues for the Raiders. But he was, you know, he's. He's definitely going to get the most out of his. His players. And I think it's going to be a good thing for Brock Bowers.
- [13:50]
Heath
Is anybody concerned about the Lions? I've actually read an article about John Morton that was heaped praise on him, had a lot of quotes from different players talking about how influential he had been for them and he'd been very successful in a lot of spots. And again, if the Lions went out of their system, out of their house to bring in this guy, that I think that says something about, about his credentials and just how much Dan Campbell likes him. I said he worked with him in two different spots, including Detroit in 2022. Dave, your thoughts on alliance?
- [14:20]
Jamie
I remember talking to a player about him once upon a time who had Morton as his receivers coach in college, and he was again heaping praise, lots of positivity about him, just about getting his players prepared, west coast offense type. So I don't really think a lot's going to change with how the Lions operate. I don't think they're going to get a whole playbook dropped into their lap from this guy. He'll adjust to what Ben Johnson was calling there, and I was surprised that Angstrand didn't get the job, but Angstrand's going to. The jets will run that same type of offense. He's got some experience calling plays in the xfl, not the NFL. Clearly not the same thing. Angstrom also called plays for the Lions in the preseason. But as for Morton, I think the talent will win out there. Obviously, there's so many great players in Detroit that it's hard to believe that they're going to take a dramatic step backward because of Morton calling the plays.
- [15:16]
Adam
I.
- [15:17]
Heath
Right.
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Adam
I don't. I'm not. I wouldn't say a dramatic step backward, but like, we've seen them be arguably the best offense in the NFL for the last two years, and so I think you should accept. Probably expect some step backwards.
- [15:33]
Heath
Yeah. I should mention he also worked. Okay, so he was a senior offensive assistant during Ben Johnson's first year as offensive coordinator. So.
- [15:43]
Adam
And he was an offensive coordinator in 2017 for the jets, right?
- [15:48]
Dave
Yeah.
- [15:48]
Heath
And they were. They didn't have. Like I said, they didn't have great talent. What do they have? They had Mark Sancho.
- [15:54]
Adam
That was Josh McCann.
- [15:55]
Heath
I think they had Josh McCown. Yeah, they had Josh McCown. They had Matt Forte in his last season. A little bit of Bryce Petty at quarterback. Robbie Chosen led the team in receiving with 90941 yards. All right, enough about that. What's coming up on Fantasy Football today? We've got a show tomorrow where we're doing a mailbag, so if you want to send us a question, email us@Fantasy FootballBSI.com fantasy football, that's the letter I. Or leave us at. Well, I won't get your Apple podcast reviews before the mailbag, so you can do it. That'd be great, but it won't be read on tomorrow's show. We've got a Friday super bowl preview. It's not gonna be. It'll be dfs, but we're just gonna talk about. We're just talk Football Sunday after the game, Jamie and I will be on to give our thoughts on the Chiefs win. Although I actually think I'm Going, you know what? I really think I'm gonna pick the Eagles. I think I'm gonna pick the Eagles. That's kind of where I'm leaning. Right. I, I keep saying the Chiefs are gonna win, but you know what? I think the fact that the Eagles have been there before is gonna help. I like the experience and I do think the Eagles are going to get the calls this year because, because like there's just too much scrutiny on the Chiefs. So on the officials, you know, rooting for the Chiefs. So that's kind of where I'm at. But we'll see.
- [17:03]
Dave
I think I heard a prop, there's one and a half roughing the passer on Mahomes.
- [17:09]
Heath
No, under.
- [17:11]
Dave
For sure under.
- [17:13]
Heath
Yeah. I'm telling you, they're not getting any calls. They're sick of the narrative. Like it's going to work against them, it's going back, it's going to work against them.
- [17:21]
Adam
I just don't, yeah, and this could be wrong, but I just don't think those officials, like they might be thinking about it now and, or irritated by it, but I just don't think when they get into the game they're going to be thinking about that at all.
- [17:34]
Heath
It's going to be human nature. It's going to be on the back of their mind. Yeah, I, this is not part of my prediction by the way. This is just like a stupid thing that I'm thinking about.
- [17:43]
Adam
I, I, yeah, I mean I think probably what truth is if it's a one score game, the Chiefs are going to win and if it's not, the Eagles are going to win.
- [17:52]
Heath
Yeah, it's probably gonna be a one score game. Yeah. So we'll recap it on Sunday night which means we will not have a Monday show. That will be your Monday show. Hey listen, if you haven't signed up for BETMGM yet, the super bowl is right around the corner. Just a good time. Use the bonus code Fantasy and you're gonna get up to a fifteen hundred dollar first bet offer. On your first wager with BetMGM. Download the BetMGM app and sign up using the bonus code Fantasy. Deposit at least $10 and place your first wager on any game and you'll receive up to 1500 dollars in bonus bets if your bet loses. Just make sure that you use the bonus code Fantasy when you sign up. We'll be right back on Fantasy Football today.
- [18:32]
Adam
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- [19:50]
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- [20:37]
Heath
All right, let's get to our greatest hits and biggest misses. So we got two of each. Heath, if you could listen to one greatest hits album, what would it be?
- [20:51]
Adam
Well, there's a lot of great choices, but, you know, I'll go with my. I had a, a three disc set of Led Zeppelin back in the day that my brother stole from me. I just saw him, he was back in town for a little while and asked him if he still had it and he just laughed at me. Yeah, Led Zeppelin.
- [21:11]
Heath
All right. I can't really argue with that. Even though I'd probably only like three or four songs on the entire three discs. All right, who are your biggest hits from 2024?
- [21:19]
Adam
I don't know, but the guys that I chose were Mike Evans and T. Higgins. And I didn't really know how we were qualifying this, but I went back and I was higher on those guys. Looking at the rankings from right before the start of the season, and they were two of the top three wide receivers in the fantasy playoffs. They both finished as top 10 or 11 wide receivers on a per game basis for the season. And so Mike Evans and T. Higgins.
- [21:46]
Heath
Yeah. Evans finishes wide receiver 11 per game in PPR. T. Higgins, wide receiver 5 per game in PPR. Higgins had 10 touchdowns in 12 games. Evans had 11 touchdowns in 14 games. I'll just throw out. One of mine was Chris Godwin, who I wish I had been higher on. It wasn't really a big hit for me, but I put him on there because we haven't really talked about him. I did have a bold prediction that he would be better than Mike Evans, and he was in the first six games. I won't count week seven because Evans got hurt early. I think he scored a touchdown on the play, if I recall. And then he got hurt against the Ravens. They both got hurt in that game, but Evans missed most of the game. First six games of the season, Evans was wide receiver 23 per game and Godwin was wide receiver four per game. He ended up as wide receiver three per game in full PPR. So just spinning it forward, you know. Godwin's going to be 29 years old this month. Evans. How old is Evans gonna be?
- [22:41]
Adam
31, 32, I believe.
- [22:42]
Heath
32. If they're both on the Bucks, how big is the gap next year between Evans and Godwin?
- [22:51]
Dave
Drafting or finishing?
- [22:54]
Heath
Yeah, both.
- [22:56]
Adam
I'll probably have Mike Evans ahead of him.
- [23:02]
Jamie
Spots or five spots.
- [23:06]
Heath
How many? Say that again, Dave.
- [23:08]
Jamie
How many spots will he be ahead of him by?
- [23:12]
Adam
They're both borderline top 12 guys.
- [23:15]
Heath
Wow.
- [23:15]
Jamie
So like within five spots of each other.
- [23:18]
Heath
Boy, sure. I don't have the.
- [23:20]
Dave
I would. I would anticipate probably two round difference between them getting drafted.
- [23:26]
Adam
I mean, it's greatly like. Obviously we're speculating on Chris Godwin being back on the Bucks and we don't know if that's going to be the case. But the other thing is I had kind of treated Chris Godwin's ankle injury as something I'm not going to have to worry about next year. I've seen some people talking on social media and I think even an article that maybe we shouldn't just say that Chris Godwin's definitely going to be 100. The ankle injury was a pretty complicated one and could take a while to recover from. And we've already seen a year of Chris Godwin or at least the first half of a year impacted by an injury from the prior year and a half.
- [24:03]
Heath
Yeah, Actually so bad in 2022. And then he still, he said he still wasn't over the ACL injury for about a year and a half.
- [24:11]
Adam
Right.
- [24:11]
Heath
Because I think he tore it in 2021.
- [24:13]
Adam
So I think like if Chris Godwin was healthy going into next year and hadn't just had this, then maybe you would say Godwin just ahead because we don't. We'll have some uncertainty. I would say Godwin just behind.
- [24:24]
Dave
I think also you want to see what kind of contract he gets if he stays in Tampa.
- [24:28]
Heath
Right.
- [24:29]
Dave
Because if it's a prove it deal, then he doesn't think he's right and they don't think he's right. If he gets a mega extension, then they. I'm sure I feel pretty confident that he's right back to form.
- [24:42]
Heath
What about the fact that Evans was wide receiver 23 per game in the first six games of the season? Just is that, does that ring any alarm bells for you? You know, going. Going into next year?
- [24:54]
Dave
I mean, I'll probably be wrong on this again, but I'm probably gonna be out on my. Kevin.
- [24:59]
Adam
Yeah, I don't his cost for sure.
- [25:03]
Heath
It.
- [25:03]
Adam
It was six games and one of like you mentioned, he left early in Week 7. He only played 57 of the snaps in Week 6.
- [25:12]
Heath
Yeah, I don't know if that was because it was a blowout or.
- [25:15]
Adam
Or did they get into a fight.
- [25:16]
Heath
I don't remember him getting ejected.
- [25:18]
Adam
Right.
- [25:19]
Heath
He faced the Broncos and he faced the Saints and those are games that he's not going to do well in.
- [25:23]
Adam
Right.
- [25:24]
Heath
Certain and Lattimore, so I did notice that too.
- [25:28]
Adam
So I think six games with one of them against Patrick Certain. And one of them where you play 50 of the snaps is not necessarily a good indicator, but it gives you a little cause for concern. I probably won't be quite as high on him as I was last year.
- [25:41]
Heath
All right, let's go to Jamie's two greatest hits. So guys that he was right about on draft day. Drake London, who finished his wide receiver 14 per game, had 100 catches, 1271 yards, nine touchdowns in a full season. Chase Brown, who was RB14 per game, but from weeks nine through 17, he was RB5 per game so Drake, London and Chase Brown.
- [26:03]
Dave
Jamie wasn't thrilled with the start for Chase Brown, but obviously it was, you know, just a matter of time before he proved he was better than Zach Moss. Moss getting hurt helped clearly, but he, he looks like a superstar, you know, and hopefully he's the, the featured running back again for the Bengals going into the season. You know, knowing how they spend money, I would be surprised if they go out and try and find a replacement via free agency. As we saw with Moss, they, you know, gave him a one year deal or two year deal for a little bit of money they could obviously draft a guy. It's a loaded draft class, so that could change some things, but would be shocking if they spent a lot of capital on that position knowing how great Chase Brown was for Drake London. Look, there were a couple different pockets of how he performed, you know, with Kirk Cousins when Cousins was still playing well, had a little bit of the wall there, got banged up a little bit. Closed the season strong with, with Michael Penix. You know, Darnell Mooney getting hurt at the end of the season helped, but I think London showed that he can have, you know, the ability to be one of the top tier fantasy receivers and hopefully continues to grow with Michael Penix going into a full year of him starting.
- [27:06]
Jamie
One of my favorite Chase Brown stats from the year from Week 9 through 17, he played 80% of the snaps or more in every single game he averaged. Jamie, he averaged 20.6 PPR points per game on 23.6 touches per game. The hope is I'm, I am certain that they're going to add a running back. The hope is they spend a day three pick on a running back and they really just keep Chase Brown in the fold as their main guy.
- [27:34]
Adam
I will say both Brown and London were guys who I think when we sent our top twelves back in the end of December or early January, I didn't include. And both of them are guys that as I'm building out my 2025 projections that I will publish next week. Early, early, way too early. They were both inside the top 12. So. Yeah.
- [27:54]
Heath
Okay. All right, Dave, you've got Terry McLaurin and Brock Bowers as guys. You were right on. McLaurin, wide receiver, 16 per game in PPR and Brock Bowers, tight end, two per game in PPR. Do you. Yeah, you know, I won't, I won't even ask a question. I'll just let you talk about them. Go for it.
- [28:12]
Jamie
And I don't think McLaurin is going to qualify as a top 12 type of fantasy wide receiver. In fact, we could see his stock go down. If the commanders make a splash at wide receiver, they sign a big time. What if they get T. Higgins, for example? It'd be crazy for them to do that, but they've got the cap space to add a big time player. Or they can draft a big time wide receiver. That could send McLaurin's stock plummeting. But he had a career year, 15.8 PPR points per game. Fifth inconsistency at the wide receiver position. This year despite being 35th in targets per game. All he needed was a quarterback. And so one of the lessons learned from this year is a wide receiver that gets a change at quarterback and upgrade a quarterback. You've got to hope, maybe anticipate that they have a shot at a career just like Terry McLaurin had. We'll think about that. With quarterbacks changing teams over the course of the off season. And then Brock Bowers, that was a combination of stud in college, going to a team that you knew was going to be playing from behind. One of the quarterbacks that they had was just an absolute auto rifler to the short area target. The year before that was Minshew. And Minshew kept it up with a lot of targets to Brock bowers. And then OConnell learned from that and he hit him, hit Bowers with a ton of targets in. In nine games with at least six targets, Brock Bowers averaged a Chase Brown late season esque, 20.7 PPR points per game, 14.6 or more PPR points per game in eight of those nine games. This is another team we do not want to see. The Raiders spend a lot of capital at wide receiver both in free agency in the draft. Let Brock Bowers stay as that main guy.
- [29:55]
Heath
I think McLaurin is so interesting because, you know, did he need a better quarterback? Obviously he got the best quarterback that he's, that he's ever played with.
- [30:04]
Jamie
Yep.
- [30:04]
Heath
However, I think one of the reasons that we that you know, the fantasy community Wasn't higher on McLaren is because no matter how good a mobile quarterback is someone that we expected to run as much as Jaden Daniels, I don't think we were expecting prolific passing numbers. And they averaged 231.3 passing yards per game. If I remember correctly, there was something like 22nd in the NFL 2023, they averaged 245.5 passing yards per game.
- [30:35]
Adam
It was just like we talked about this last week. It was entirely 100%. Just the touchdowns. Like he didn't get a lot. In fact, he didn't get it more target. It was his lowest target total since his rookie year. Yeah, this wasn't a career high in catches. It wasn't even better than his career. 17 game pace in yards, 13 touchdowns. He just scored 13 touchdowns. He's, he's will be. Whenever whoever writes the regression article for this summer writes it, it'll probably be me. He'll be one of the top regression candidates because I mean, no wide receivers. We project to score 13 touchdowns on 117 targets.
- [31:21]
Heath
Absolutely. I, if, if I were going to make a case, you know, a better case for that, it would be just removing the first two games of the season because Jaden Daniels just wasn't really Jaden Daniels yet. He was throwing to his running backs all the time. You know, everyone was criticizing Cliff Kingsbury, the horizontal raid and all that. The last 15 games of the season, McLaurin was on pace for 1200 yards, but still only 119 targets and 15 touchdowns. And then look at the playoffs though. The playoffs he had 227 yards in three games. It's actually second on the team behind Tommy Brown. But yeah, I don't know that we're even going to have this discussion this year in terms of a guy getting a rookie quarterback anything like Jaden Daniels, like Cam Ward and Sanders. They're not going to rush for nearly as prolifically as Daniels or throw. Well, I mean could Cam Ward could, could one of them throw for 4, 000 yards? I think they could in 17.
- [32:21]
Dave
They could.
- [32:24]
Heath
Yeah. I mean probably where they go, you.
- [32:27]
Dave
Know, if they go to a party.
- [32:28]
Heath
Out, I don't think they're going to.
- [32:30]
Adam
Throw the touch heavy system where they get to throw 650 passes maybe.
- [32:33]
Heath
I don't think they're going to approach. What did he throw? 29 touchdowns this year. Washington as a team through 29 touchdowns. There was a little bit of Mario in there. All right, who's next? Me. Oh, okay. My two biggest hits. Kish Gobbin really wasn't one of them. I was gonna say T. Higgins, but Heath answered first. But I just wanted to bring up Godwin. Wide receiver, three per game. I did think he'd be better in PPR than Evans and, and he was significantly in the first six games of the season. The other guy was Camara. And everything I said about Alvin camara Going into 2024, I feel like we could say again in 2025, he's a year older and he's still. Now he's gone four straight seasons without a carry of 30 or more yards. That is pathetic. I'd see. I have a. I have a note on that. Let's see. Lack of big plays. Yes. So his longest run was 24 yards. He has not had a run longer than 30 yards in four seasons. Saquon Barkley had 10 carries longer than 30 yards in 2024 alone. There have been 107 running backs with at least one carry of 30 or more yards since 2021. And Alvin Camara is not one of them, despite being seventh among running backs in carries. It just doesn't matter. And the reason I liked him was because I thought he had zero competition. He's a franchise legend and they, you know, Dennis Allen could not stand Kendry Miller. Basically going into the year, there was no competition. Does that change this year? Because if there is some competition, if Kendrick Miller shows enough, I could see him tank bigs being his way into a role. That is annoying for Alvin Camara, but I, I kind of want to be out on Camara, but I don't know if I should because he actually had a better year. Some of the metrics were really good and they had a good offensive line last year. That is something that changed. Their line stunk for three years. They've kind of nailed it with their offensive line a little bit. They've gotten a lot better. I mean, they. They were top 10 in, in run blocking on PFF. They were 14th in run block win rate. Win rate on ESPN. Their rookie left tackle was success. But anyway, it's better than it used to be. So I don't know if anything changes for Camara. He's. I know he's going to be 30, but, like, what's different? I still think he could be a top 10 running back per game. Not if not five.
- [34:52]
Jamie
Yeah. First of all, I remember when the offensive line was healthy at the beginning of the year. That offense was awesome. And then once they took on even one injury, it was McCoy, I think, that got hurt first. Everything completely collapsed, but Camara kind of overcame that. When I've started doing my research on all these players, the first thing I looked at with Camara is, well, the best thing that could happen is that Taysom Hill leaves the team. Hill's 35 years old. He's coming off of a torn ACL and the Saints can save some cap space if they cut him. He averaged 14 PPR points per game in six games without Taysom. 22.7 in eight games with Taysom. Riddle me that. Yeah, I don't know how that happened, but I, I do think obviously anytime you can eliminate somebody stealing touchdowns away from Camara, it's going to lead to a good thing. The key is targets and his catches, especially in full ppr. He averaged over six per game and so if he continues to be used in that role in New Orleans, then it's easy to look at him and say, okay, he could be a top 10 running back and you're not going to draft him like a top 10 fantasy running back.
- [35:58]
Adam
I think that the taste of Hill stat is greatly influenced by the fact that Alvin Camara had 180 yard four touchdown game in week two and that.
- [36:08]
Dave
Playing Mike Zimmer, that was basically the.
- [36:10]
Adam
Reason that he was a top. Like he was a really good running back on a per game basis. If you look at towards the end of the year, it was really, really gross. And yeah, it's the second year in a row that he basically did nothing for fantasy managers in the playoffs. 30 year old running. Well. Right. But he, he has missed multiple games, three of the last four years and he's a 30 year old running back.
- [36:39]
Heath
Yeah.
- [36:41]
Adam
So.
- [36:42]
Heath
Well, we'll give me round four.
- [36:45]
Adam
I mean Brett probably where he's probably going to be a three or third or fourth round pick and for the period of time that he's healthy, he's probably going to be a good value there.
- [36:55]
Heath
All right, that's it for the hits. So to recap, for Heath it was T. Higgins and Mike Evans. For Jamie, it was Drake London and Chase Brown. For Dave, Terry McLaurin and Brock Bowers. And for me, Chris Godwin and Alvin Camara. How about our biggest misses of 2024? We'll tell you after this on FFT.
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- [38:17]
Heath
All right, Dave, I'm going to let you start two biggest misses you said Devon Achan and Chris Olave.
- [38:23]
Jamie
Olave is an easy one to break down. He got hurt even when he was healthy. He wasn't getting good numbers consistently in New Orleans. And I'm gonna have a problem because I still love the talent. I'm hopeful that the Saints can improve their offense, improve their passing game and Olave can still be that number one guy. But if it's Derek Carr and if they add another wide receiver and if the offensive line is still an issue and etc. Etc. I I'm probably. I'm probably going to target Olave is no better than a number three receiver. I'm sure the majority of fantasy managers will do the exact same thing. I still believe that he's got a lot of upside. I still believe that he's a tremendous player. But if you throw on all these issues, you tack on the concussion issue, does he even really want to be there? I know there was some hubbub from his brother about that in New Orleans and it definitely makes me skittish on him ever reaching his potential. And this is a guy who had a ton of it when he came out from Ohio State. The other guy I whiffed on, Devon Han. There were a lot of things I did not love about his situation and he overcame all of them. Played Almost every game, 10 games with at least 18 PPR points, averaged about 18 PPR points. Six of his 10 games were in blowouts. Heath made a great point before the season that when A Chan played in blowouts in 2024, that's when he got his huge numbers. Technically we can say the same thing for this past year, but he still had some great games even when it was a competitive game with the Dolphins. And now Miami has an off season where they can improve their offensive line even more, find more creative ways to use Achan. Do they really have a running back that's going to take HN off the field a significant amount of time in 2025. All these things point to Achan is an easy first round pick, especially in full PPR.
- [40:13]
Heath
I just want to talk about Olave real quick here. Mentioned him on the I think it was the bounce back show. So just some numbers. He played six healthy games. He left two games where he played fewer than 12% of the snaps or 10% or fewer of the snaps in two games. So if we just look at his six healthy games and his 17 game pace in that compared to Terry McLaurin's season. Right. Just for some perspective, Terry McLaurin, 82 catches. Chris Olave on pace for 85 catches. Terry McLaurin, 117 targets. Olave on pace for 119 targets in those six games. McLaurin 10, 96 yards, Olave, 10, 82 yards. So almost identical here. Touchdowns, McLaurin 13, Olave 3. Right. So it's just, you know, you do with that. Do with that what you will.
- [41:03]
Adam
But that's what I was gonna say. There's kind of like Dave basically had two wide receivers that are kind of the same guy as his biggest hit and biggest miss. Like, I think Chris Olave just kind of is Terry McCormick. He'll probably have one good touchdown season.
- [41:19]
Heath
They went in so such different ranges though in the drafts. Right. Like McLaurin was kind of a wide receiver three afterthought and then a lot.
- [41:26]
Adam
Because McLaurin had two more years of being Terry McLaurin.
- [41:30]
Heath
All right, Jamie, your two biggest misses were Anthony Richardson and Dalton Kincaid.
- [41:36]
Dave
Yeah, they were. They were good, good misses. I thought both guys had top five upside and they didn't come close to that. Richardson clearly had trouble throwing the ball again. Dale dealt with injuries again and, you know, was. Was benched not just because he was hurt, he was benched because the team thought that they can go a different direction, have more success. So as we talked about, you know, several times already this offseason, you know, he's not going to be drafted as a number one quarterback. I don't think anybody's going to buy into that. But he's going to be one of the higher end, number two quarterbacks with the hope that, you know, some of the positives carry through, carry over to this year and we get a little bit more consistency. Getting a quarterback coach that hopefully will fix his mechanics is big and they've already done that. And so hopefully he stays healthy and can, you know, do something similar to what Jayne Daniels did, which is, you know, be a 3800 yard guy and, you know, get his touchdowns up and, you know, limit the turnover. So there's still that potential there for him. But, you know, we're getting to the point where potential is not something a lot of fantasy managers want to buy into. And the same thing with Dalton Kincaid. Look, he had some good moments last year, but a lack of touchdowns, a lack of taking a step forward and A very depleted receiving core, you know, very frustrating situations. I, you know, have to buy into a little bit. You know, he said he was playing through two knee injuries. One we know, one, you know, who knows how significant it was, at what point did he get hurt? But another guy, that's going to be tough to trust as a starter. So, you know, we've. We've broke down our top 12 tight ends. I think for at least four of the six people who sent in their rankings, he was still a top 12 guy, if not all six. So there's still some. Some ability there or potential there to be drafted as a number one tight end. But again, I just think when you look at it and sort of break it down, we'll see what the Bills receiving core looks like. Everything shakes out for them this off season. But to say he's a number one tight end is a little bit tough to swallow.
- [43:22]
Heath
Yeah, I'll get to my guys after Dave, after Heath rather, but I. One of my guys is Amari Cooper, and I was just trying to read a little bit about Amari Cooper and what went wrong. I found a quote from GM Brandon Bean of the Buffalo Bills, and he said, you guys kind of know the mantra that was established this year by Josh and Joe Brady of everybody eats. Adding Cooper was not going to get away from that. But does that take a little pressure off of Shakir, Knox, Kincaid, the run game, all that? So I do not regret the move. I think it did help us. I think it did help us. Despite what his personal numbers were, that was about Cooper. But really it was the everybody eats thing that really stood out. And I guess that was just the philosophy that according to Brandon Bean, that Josh Allen and coordinator Joe Brady established, this will play out.
- [44:09]
Adam
But it didn't. Like, that didn't really happen. Josh Allen and James Cook ate. All the wide receivers and tight ends were mediocre to bet to worse.
- [44:22]
Heath
Yeah, but even. But even you've talked about, like, James Cook not having the snapshare of a typical.
- [44:27]
Adam
Right. He just scored a bunch of touchdowns. Right?
- [44:29]
Heath
Yeah, but. But, you know, in terms of distributing playing time, distributing targets, does it look like an everybody eats kind of thing here?
- [44:38]
Adam
Eats first, everybody plays. Like eats means something.
- [44:44]
Dave
Like, I think if you're comparing it, let's say Detroit, where you had, you know, five skill players contribute in a big way certain points of the season, you know, versus Buffalo, which didn't really do that. I guess the philosophy would be, is like, you know, yes, everybody plays, but, you know, there's not one player to focus on getting, you know, the majority of stats aside from the quarterback. So.
- [45:09]
Heath
All right, okay.
- [45:11]
Dave
It's also, it's also potential philosophy for the off season. You know, are they going to be aggressive in getting a number one receiver?
- [45:20]
Heath
Is that. Yeah, I'm just wondering if that quote, if they do get a number one receiver, we're going to go back to that and be like, well, maybe this isn't a great spot for him. But I think if they had one who was good enough to earn the targets, he'll get them.
- [45:30]
Dave
I mean, maybe it's Coleman, you know, they have that guy, maybe.
- [45:33]
Heath
All right, Heath, your two guys for you or the two older running backs who were awesome this year, Saquon Barkley and Derrick Henry.
- [45:40]
Adam
Yeah. And I've like, we've talked about this and rehashed it and rehashed it and rehashed it, but they like everything that we knew about running backs and age curves and everything that we knew about older running backs and changing teams. This group of running backs just completely flipped on its head and they were league winning running backs and I didn't just draft them. I don't know what more there is to say about it. Now. The. Quite the way we. I think the Camara issue brings up a good question and we'll have to debate this throughout the summer, but has anything changed? Was it a one year blip? We saw the league go a little bit more run heavy. We saw Barkley and Henry really used as feature backs. But I mean, I can't imagine that the amount of tread that Saquon Barkley, the number of touches he had in the regular season and playoffs again, historically speaking, we've always said, yeah, those guys are going to be a lot worse next year. So do we just view Henry and Barkley as unicorns that we don't apply historical precedents to or are running backs going to age better and last longer than they have historically?
- [46:58]
Dave
Barkley is scary because the history of running backs for 2,000 yards is awful the next year.
- [47:06]
Heath
Well, I think it's, it's. He's going to be worse. You know, I think it's 1.2 yards per carry or worse for every running back. I'm pretty sure I have to do this research. I should just do. I've done it before, I forgot. But, but like Henry still had a really good fantasy season. Unless was that he didn't get hurt the following year, did he?
- [47:23]
Dave
He got hurt the following year.
- [47:24]
Heath
Oh, he did all right.
- [47:24]
Dave
Well, he's the ninth guy to do it. I mean, we spend more time doing this later, but he's the ninth guy to do it. Two of them got significant injuries the following season. Terrell Davis and Derrick Henry, all of them dropped by 500 yards or more the following season. Touchdowns, I think for a couple like Eric Dickerson I think dropped by maybe a touchdown or two. The, the touchdowns were relatively close. I mean, I'm sorry, maybe Barry Sanders did not drop significantly, but six of the eight I think were 500 yards or worse. It's, it's not great.
- [47:56]
Heath
Okay, that's good. Sorry, I'll let you go in a second. That is a good point. I'm not trying to dispute it. I just say Derrick Henry was the number one running back per game. He only played eight games that year. The following. After the 2006. After the 2000 yard season, he averaged 23.4 PPR fantasy points per game, which is probably a career high for him. It is by, by almost. By 2.5 fantasy points. He's actually better per game the following year than he was, you know, the 2,000 yard season. But I can't ignore the fact that.
- [48:28]
Dave
He, I think also Barkley is the oldest to do it.
- [48:32]
Heath
Oh really?
- [48:34]
Dave
I don't have, I'm not. That's, you know, don't, don't, don't hold me to that. But I think he's the oldest to ever get 2,000 yards in the season.
- [48:41]
Jamie
Did it at 27 years old. He's had Barclays. Had two years already with over 350 touches. The following seasons he missed at least three games in each of the seasons. Still had good years for fantasy, but not amazing years. One was his second year in New York. 1441 yards, eight touchdowns. The second one also in New York. It was 2023, his last year in New York. 288 touches, 1,242 yards, 10 touchdowns. Those are each coming off of seasons where he had over 350 touches. He's already at 411 carries with the super bowl to go. So you could easily make the case that he's being overworked into February. People are going to run to him because of the year that he had, but I'm not sure if it's a great idea. At bare minimum, if you draft Barkley in round one, hopefully there's a good backup. Maybe an improved backup could be Will Shipley in Philadelphia who you take with one of your last picks just to kind of lock up that backfield, hoping that that system will Create good production. I don't know if it'll work out for Shipley 50% of how it worked out for Saquon Barkley, but it's something you could try and do in safeguard if you just can't help yourself. And you tape Saquon Barkley with. With the one on one, for example.
- [50:03]
Heath
Okay. My two biggest misses were Amari Cooper. I was pretty excited about him as a really good number three receiver. Good pick in the fifth round. Deserved to go, I thought, basically the same time as T. Higgins. We were all very high on T. Higgins. Their seasons couldn't have been any different. And Caleb Williams. So with Cooper, you know, I'm just wondering if he has anything left. I think if you look at his circumstances, he probably had the worst quarterback in the NFL. When he was on Cleveland, he had a guy who just. Gosh, he was on pace. Deshaun Watson. In the six games of the Mari, Cooper was on pace for 2, 890 yards, 14 touchdowns and eight interceptions. He completed 61.3% of his passes, 5.1 yards per attempt. He was horrible. And then in Buffalo Cooper. Oh, this is. This was the other part of the quote from Brandon Beam. You're talking about a player who's never been in this offensive system. He's got to learn the playbook. He's never thrown with Josh Allen. You have to acclimate with your team, learn an offense. The games keep going. And so I think he did a great job of learning our offense. In fairness to him, in due time he suffered the wrist injury, obviously banged his back and missed some games, but fought through it honestly. His wrist could have required surgery and I feel sure that at least one of the doctors recommended it, but he wanted to keep playing. That's from Bill's wire on USA Today, by the way. So, you know, if I'm making excuses for. For Amari Cooper, DeSean Watson was the worst quarterback in the world. And then he barely played and was playing hurt on a new team, picking up a new system. And the year before, if you took away the Dorian Thompson Robinson games in 2023 in Cleveland, he was. He was good enough to be wide receiver six. He was so good. So obviously he's another old receiver. And I think if you watch his tape, which I did this morning, he's not really separating much. His open score on ESPN was terrible on ESPN Analytics. I don't know that he has much left. I know that these are tough circumstances for anyone, though.
- [52:00]
Adam
And he had one of the highest drop rates I've ever seen he did.
- [52:03]
Heath
I don't know what to make of that. I mean that was unusual for him in a horrible drop rate, so probably not much left. I, I, maybe if he falls to like round 10 or something and in the rights, I don't even know where he's gonna be. Maybe he could be a value. And the other one was who was. Oh, Caleb. I don't know. I don't really know what to say about Caleb Williams.
- [52:25]
Dave
Yeah, you ruined him.
- [52:26]
Heath
I could blame the offensive coordinator maybe, but I don't know. I think I meant to bring this up with Cam Ward. One of the things that people were nervous about with Caleb Williams was that he did all these things in college that there's no way he was going to get away with in the NFL. And they were right. And Cambord's kind of the same thing. So I just want to throw that out there.
- [52:44]
Adam
One of the, one of the things that quarter Rex and we talked about this last preseason like he was a hero ball guy in college and held onto the ball way too long and took way too many sacks and he led the NFL and sacks taken this year with 68. Yeah, like I just hopefully that improves in year two. But he had a receiving core that would have allowed him to get the ball out on time a lot more regularly than he chose to do.
- [53:20]
Jamie
Yeah, it should be a much better schemed offense and it should be a better offensive line. And I would imagine that Ben Johnson will focus on Caleb Williams getting the ball out quickly and he started to do more of that after Shane Waldron was fired. And in his final eight games, he averaged four more fantasy points per game without Waldron than with Waldron. So there's, there was gradual improvement over the course of the year. I, I would suspect that he will get a lot of, of steam and end up being a top 12 fantasy quarterback in ADP.
- [53:52]
Dave
Things just turned when you dropped him for Andy Dalton.
- [53:56]
Heath
Actually Dalton was better in the short term, I believe, than Caleb, but I don't know. We didn't make the playoffs of that league.
- [54:06]
Adam
Yeah, Shock. Yeah.
- [54:08]
Heath
Right. So that's it for today's show. We got a mailbag tomorrow and yeah, again, fantasy football@cbsi.com the letter I fantasy footballbsi.com mailbag tomorrow. Super bowl preview on Friday. Super bowl recap on Sunday night. Won't be immediately after the game. We'll try to get there as soon as possible. But again, thanks so much for watching and listening and we'll talk to you tomorrow on Fantasy Football today.
- [54:40]
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- [54:44]
Counselor of Cash Sia Najad
It's the counselor of Cash Sia Najad from the Early Edge, a daily sports betting show powered by Sportsline and CBS Sports. If you're looking for the best bets, picks and analysis for the day in sports, we are the one stop shop for you. We are locked in to get you set with winners every day for the NFL playoff race and super bowl, college football and college basketball, the NBA and so much more. Download and follow on Apple Podcasts, Spotify and anywhere podcasts are found. And subscribe to the SportsLine YouTube page to watch us live at 10am daily and turn on your notifications so you don't miss a single pick all season long.
- [55:19]
Adam
Good luck.