Player Outlooks (AFC)! Fun Notes on Eight Key Players (06/02 Fantasy Football Podcast)

Summary

Fantasy Football Today – Episode: Player Outlooks (AFC)! Fun Notes on Eight Key Players (06/02 Fantasy Football Podcast) Release Date: June 2, 2025
Host: Adam Aizer
Analysts: Dave Richard, Jamey Eisenberg, Heath Cummings, and others
Podcast Description: Dive deep into Fantasy Football strategies with expert analysis on player rankings, rookies, waiver wire pickups, and more to help you dominate your league.

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Introduction

The episode kicks off with a brief acknowledgment of advertisements before transitioning into the main content. Host Adam Aizer welcomes listeners to the show, emphasizing the focus on player outlooks for the AFC division, with plans to cover the NFC in subsequent episodes.

Creating Player Outlooks

Adam shares his personal experience with drafting player outlooks, highlighting how writing them out—whether by hand or typing—helps organize thoughts and clarify strategies for upcoming drafts. Dave Richard echoes this sentiment, suggesting that drafting notes can be instrumental in making informed decisions during live drafts.

Notable Quote:

Adam (01:17): "Writing something out was actually helpful for me to put my thoughts out there, organize it a little bit and really know, hone in on how I feel about these players."

AFC Player Outlooks

David Najoku

Heath Cummings initiates the discussion with insights on David Najoku, highlighting Najoku's impressive performance when paired with quarterback Joe Flacco in 2023. Najoku averaged 18.6 PPR (Points Per Reception) fantasy points over five games, showcasing his potential as a top-tier tight end.

Notable Quote:

Heath (15:50): "Najoku could absolutely be a top three tight end."

Adam adds context by comparing Najoku's performance with historical data, underscoring his consistency when healthy and actively involved in the offense.

Statistics:

• David Najoku: 18.6 PPR points/game over five games with Flacco.
• Jono Smith: 18.6 PPR points/game over eight games.

Justin Fields

The conversation shifts to Justin Fields, where Heath expresses difficulty in consistently ranking Fields higher due to his fluctuating performance metrics. Fields has shown promise with a combination of passing and rushing abilities, but concerns remain regarding his passing efficiency and potential fluctuations based on quarterback support.

Notable Quote:

Heath (17:07): "Justin Fields has a top 10 floor."

Statistics:

• Justin Fields:
  • 2022: 1,300 rushing yards, 9 TDs
  • 2023: 866 rushing yards, 6 TDs
  • 2024: 655 rushing yards, 14 TDs
  • Career Yards Per Attempt: 7.0

Dave Richard provides additional analysis on Fields' passing game, comparing his completion rate and yards per attempt to peers like Aaron Rodgers, suggesting Fields remains a viable top-12 fantasy quarterback.

Brian Thomas Jr.

Jamie Eisenberg delves into Brian Thomas Jr.'s breakout potential. Thomas Jr. demonstrated significant promise in the past season with consistent performances, averaging 99.8 yards and nearly a touchdown per game over a six-game stretch.

Notable Quote:

Jamie (33:10): "There’s a lot to love about the upside of what Brian Thomas can be based on that six game stretch."

Adam supports this by referencing Thomas Jr.'s early-season performance metrics, positioning him as a potential early-round pick with strong upside.

Statistics:

• Brian Thomas Jr.: 99.8 yards/game, ~1 TD/game over six games.

Garrett Wilson

The discussion moves to Garrett Wilson, where concerns are raised about his Average Draft Position (ADP) being 32nd overall despite being ranked as high as wide receiver 14. This discrepancy suggests that his true value might be underappreciated in certain mock drafts.

Notable Quote:

Adam (27:25): "I’m surprised he’s ahead of Hill. I’m surprised he’s 32nd overall."

Jamie advises caution, noting that fan mock drafts may not fully capture Wilson's potential but recognizing his importance in various league formats.

Anthony Richardson

Jamie provides an outlook on Anthony Richardson, a quarterback with high potential but also significant risk due to his inconsistency and limited game experience. Richardson's dual-threat capabilities offer upside if he can stabilize his passing mechanics and capitalize on the Colts' offensive weapons.

Notable Quote:

Jamie (28:20): "If he takes advantage of it, he’s going to be a top 10 quarterback."

Statistics:

• Anthony Richardson: 19.3 fantasy points/game over two seasons in games with >90% snap share.

Jono Smith

Adam highlights Jono Smith's remarkable performance last season, where he averaged 18.6 PPR points per game over eight games. Smith's potential trade to the Steelers could impact his fantasy value, especially with the presence of offensive coordinator Arthur Smith.

Notable Quote:

Adam (28:35): "He's like a consensus ranking, something like tight end 10."

Statistics:

• Jono Smith: 18.6 PPR points/game over eight games.

Xavier Worthy

Dave Richard analyzes Xavier Worthy's performance against different defensive coverages. Worthy excelled against man coverage but saw reduced target shares against zone coverage, raising questions about his consistency and ADP as a reliable fantasy option.

Notable Quote:

Dave (42:35): "The Chiefs will see more zone coverage and he doesn't get, he hasn't gotten the same type of target share against zone coverage than he does against man coverage."

Statistics:

• Xavier Worthy:
  • Against Zone: 16% regular season, 21% playoffs
  • Against Man: 22% regular season, 37% playoffs

Khalil Shakir

Khalil Shakir is discussed as a dependable but not standout wide receiver option. While he showed solid production last season, the panel expresses skepticism about his ability to be a significant fantasy difference-maker without an increase in touchdowns.

Notable Quote:

Jamie (66:02): "He’s a good fourth receiver and a reliable safe target, but not a huge difference-maker."

Statistics:

• Khalil Shakir: 76 catches, 821 yards, 4 TDs over 15 games.

Greg Roman’s Track Record with Running Backs

Dave Richard critiques Greg Roman’s history as an offensive coordinator, particularly his ability to develop rookie running backs. Roman has only enabled two running backs to average 15 PPR points in their rookie seasons over a decade, raising concerns about drafting running backs in teams coached by him.

Notable Quote:

Dave (42:18): "He hasn’t had a rookie running back average 12 PPR points under Greg Roman."

Historical Performance:

• Mark Ingram: 15 PPR points (2016)
• LaShawn McCoy: 15 PPR points (2016)

Additional AFC East Outlooks: Jono Smith

The panel revisits Jono Smith, reaffirming his potential as a high-value tight end in fantasy leagues. Heath credits Smith with excellent finesse after the catch, making him a reliable option despite concerns over target fluctuation.

Notable Quote:

Heath (62:18): "He has been over 5 yards after the catch per reception every year of his career."

Concluding Remarks

As the episode wraps up, Adam Aizer teases the next episode focusing on the NFC, ensuring listeners have the latest insights to prepare for their drafts.

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Key Takeaways:

• David Najoku and Jono Smith emerge as top tight end options with high fantasy point averages.
• Justin Fields remains a solid top-12 quarterback with balancing risks tied to his passing efficiency.
• Brian Thomas Jr. and Garrett Wilson offer significant upside as wide receivers, though ADP disparities warrant cautious optimism.
• Greg Roman’s history with rookie running backs suggests potential challenges in drafting RBs for teams he coaches.
• Anthony Richardson presents a high-risk, high-reward quarterback option contingent on his development and offensive support.

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Disclaimer: The information provided in this summary is based on the podcast transcript and is intended for informational purposes only. Always perform your own research before making fantasy football decisions.

Transcript

[Adam]

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[Dave]

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[Jamie]

Wanna play?

[Adam]

Can you believe this?

[Heath]

No, I can't. It's time to dominate your fantasy league.

[Adam]

This is gonna go the distance.

[Heath]

Now here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie and Heath.

[Adam]

Welcome everybody to fantasy football today. It is Monday, June 2nd. It is June. It is really almost football season. It's getting there. We welcome you to the show. We're gon about player outlooks. We all had to write some player outlooks. They were due today. And I don't know guys, for me, this is the first time I've ever done it putting, you know, pen to paper, as the expression goes, but fingers to keyboard and writing something out was actually helpful for me to put my thoughts out there, organize it a little bit and really know, hone in on how I feel about these players. Did you guys, you guys feel that way when you do these player outlooks?

[Dave]

Very much so. And it's also like a maybe it's a key point for people to help them with their fantasy strategies and figure out what it is that they really want to accomplish in their drafts. Making a list by hand, writing down thoughts by hand. I know we're living in the digital era. There are people that don't even know cursive anymore. But if you write things down, maybe it could actually like or type things out. We're not literally writing it out. I can't make it like this is 1965 and we've got yellow legal pads or anything like that. Typing it out might be able to just be enough to help you realize and flesh out the points that can help you. Or you can just listen to us. Maybe you can just Write down the points that you really like when you hear our shows every day. And the points that really stand out to you are the ones that you'll refer to in your drafts in two months.

[Heath]

I think that's a really good point, Dave. And I feel like one of my. The biggest parts of my job is to help other people be better at fantasy football. So I just like to put the offer out there. If somebody wants to try that next of May, just let me know.

[Adam]

Try what?

[Dave]

Oh, outlooks for you.

[Heath]

Writing out player outlooks to see if it helps them with fantasy football.

[Adam]

Yeah, I. I actually. Dave, I. I used to talk. The legal pads. I actually used, like, a jar of ink and a feather to. To write down my thoughts. I went.

[Heath]

I had a question for you, Adam. It was not player outlook related.

[Adam]

Okay. I know where you're going.

[Heath]

June 2 is in a part of the first week of June.

[Adam]

I. We could do the draft tomorrow. I don't care. Okay. Like, we're gonna do our dynasty draft soon.

[Heath]

Adam a month ago told us we were doing the rookie draft the first week of June, and he's now scheduled it for June 9, which, like, 11:30 is in the afternoon. But let's start the rookie draft already. Man, oh, man.

[Adam]

Is this summer yet? Like, it is summer, right? Like, it's June time. I mean, summer.

[Jamie]

To be. To be fair, I don't know exactly how time zones work, but there's a few people in this league in England. It might be June 9th already.

[Adam]

It's true.

[Heath]

It might be June 20th is the official start of summer.

[Adam]

I know, but, like, it's kind of summer. Okay, so anyway, let's get to it here. Jamie had an idea of writing an article about, like, kind of the most interesting things we discovered while doing the player outlook. So I said, let's turn that into a podcast. So we're gonna do AFC today. We'll do NFC tomorrow. Just two notes per division.

[Jamie]

Sorry to Dave's point about doing these exercises yourself. So part of the reason why we're putting some of this information out now on in stories is so when you're on the clock in a draft, especially live draft, you will have already read some of these things, hopefully if you're preparing now. So, like, for example, the NFC south is 1. 1 division. I did already. That's. The story's already up. And so what I did was.

[Adam]

I did.

[Jamie]

And I think this is gonna be the format for everyone. But five, just basically repeating the key points of the outlook or the key statistics of the outlook and something that will tell you about the player that can help you now. And so when you're on the on the clock, for example, so like Alvin Kamara versus Kenneth Walker. Right. So you, you could have read this already weeks in advance and these will be updated. I don't think the stories will be updated, so I apologize about that. But the, the outlooks will be updated, but you'll already have the information at your fingertips. So that when you're on the clock and you have 60 seconds to pick, you've read why we like Alvin Kamara or don't, why we like Kenneth Walker or don't, and you've already formulated your own opinion. So you don't have to worry about in round three or round four when you're making that decision. So that's the goal by this is that you already have this stuff in June and you don't have to worry about it in August when it's 19, 18, 17 clock sticking down and you're determining which player you want the most.

[Adam]

Yeah. And if this first news item comes to fruition, I'm going to have to rewrite a lot of Miami Dolphins outlooks here because the Dolphins and the Steelers are apparently talking about a John who Smith trade where he would be reunited with offensive coordinator Arthur Smith who coached him in Tennessee and Atlanta. Would this be Heath a big, big deal for you? If Arthur Smith if, sorry, if John who Smith went to the Steelers, it.

[Heath]

Would stink for Jono Smith in my opinion. I would not be very excited about this move for him. It would be like the one guy that it would probably significantly impact for me would be Jalen Waddle because his role did just almost disappear last year at times. And I would be more hopeful for a bounce back season from Waddle.

[Adam]

Yeah, Waddle had one of the lowest target per out run rates. You know, not quite toward the bottom of wide receivers, but pretty close. It was like 17.5%, something like that. And you really want to be above 20, 21% to be a relevant fantasy option. Target per out run rate the 11 games that Tuatanga Bailoa played, weeks one, two and eight through 16, Johnny Smith was second on the team in targets with 76 behind Tyree Kill who had 87. So Johnny Smith, that's 117 target pace. For Tyreek Hill it was 134 target pace. This is just with Tua. For HN it was 113 target pace and for Waddle a 96 target pace in his nine healthy games.

[Heath]

Maybe it would be good For Tyree Kill. Because maybe trading Jono Smith away would signal that the Dolphins are done with their trying to eliminate big plays offense.

[Dave]

Or they just think that they could find somebody else who can replicate what John who did. Let's, let's be honest. How many times did you watch a John who Smith play and go, wow, only John who Smith could have made that play. Only John who Smith could have caught a ball two yards off the line of scrimmage and maybe broke a tackle. Then I'm, I, I should give him more credit. Yeah, he did have some plays.

[Adam]

Yeah.

[Dave]

But it's not like he was a difference maker. He, he had volume. He was great for fantasy because of volume more than anything else.

[Jamie]

I think the nice thing is, is that we've continued our Tyree Kill streak.

[Adam]

Yeah.

[Dave]

It's not going away. He's going to be part of every single show we do.

[Adam]

I hope so. Patrick Mahomes talking about Rashi Rice, says Rasheed Rice looks like Rashi and he's, he's healthy. There's no limitations. He also said Travis Kelsey looks good and his body feels good, maybe even better than Kelsey felt at the beginning of or before the season last year. And Andy Reid said Isaiah Pacheco looks tremendous. So everything is great. Yeah, yeah, I know, but right. I mean, everything is great right now for the Chiefs.

[Jamie]

I will say for, for Kelsey. You've heard me mention this a few times throughout the years. He went back to training in South Florida with the guy that helped him get ready for the combine, Tony Villani and XP Sports, and he spent a lot of time in South Florida. I think he may still be here. I'm gonna, I'm gonna find out this week. But he bought a house. He, he's, he's clearly trying to get back to something and I don't know if he got away from it. I know he wasn't training at that particular gym for the last couple of years, but at least to my knowledge. But I think that's a great sign whenever, you know, you go back to try and get yourself in, in some better, better shape and you know, pick up some speed, which that's. It could be. It could be a step in the right direction. And the last time he was there, at least to my knowledge, was right before he had. What was the year, Adam, where he had a little bit of down year, then bounced back?

[Adam]

Oh, I honestly 20, 21 maybe.

[Jamie]

It was definitely that, that correlation, you know, that's not why it happened. But he definitely, after a down year, went back there and I remember talking to him there and, you know, things obviously worked out in a good way for him.

[Adam]

Yeah, I'd say 20, 21. Probably average 69 yards per game the next year, 72 yards per game and three more touchdowns. Maybe it's 20, 19, 20, 19 and 20. But whatever, who cares? Okay, that's Travis Kelsey we're talking about. Another tight end is Isaiah Likely. And John Harbaugh said that he wants Isaiah Likely to be an all Pro this season. That wouldn't be good for for Mark Andrews. Kyle Shanahan said that Christian McCaffrey is as healthy as can be. Also, Ricky Pearsall has a hamstring injury. He could be out. He could be limited until training camp. According to the Athletic the Patriots now, I mean, this is wild. A little bit of a wild report. They could consider cutting Stefan Diggs according to Scott Zolak of A98.5 the Sports Hub. I feel like they must have like a radio thing that says this is 98.5 the sports hub. They all have that.

[Dave]

You don't know how close you are.

[Adam]

Yeah, they all have that.

[Dave]

Yeah, yeah, yeah. Well, I mean I go on a show on that station every Thursday morning. I've been doing it for over a decade. And they, they're very proud. Prideful station in the Boston area.

[Adam]

Yeah.

[Dave]

Shout out. Touch and Hardy.

[Adam]

It wasn't just. It may not have been according to the report. It may not have been just the crystal light pink lemonade incident from that we saw last week. Russell Wilson was on the 7pm in Brooklyn podcast raving about Malik, neighbors calling him a superstar. Zach Jackson of the Athletic thinks Joe Flacco is the favorite to win the quarterback competition. The 49ers. More on that later. The 49ers are finalizing a trade for Eagles edge rusher Bryce Huff. Bryce Huff was really good for the jets under head coach Robert Sala, but kind of limited snaps. And then with the Eagles it just didn't really work. He just two and a half sacks in 12 games, but looks like he's on his way to San Francisco to be reunited with Robert Sala, who's the defensive coordinator there. Lion center Frank Ragnow has been missing OTAs. This looks like it could be contract related. And CJ Stroud dealing with a minor shoulder injury that they are not concerned about. I want to tell you real quick about Paramount. Plus we watch it every day in my house for SpongeBob. Hey, SpongeBob, I do a Patrick impression. The kids love it and but for adults out there listening.

[Dave]

Wait, wait, wait. Did you say you do an impression? Of who?

[Adam]

Patrick on SpongeBob. Yeah. Thank you. It was Patrick. Oh, hey, Patrick. I do a decent spongebob. And I do a kind of a decent Squidward. But anyway, I also watched Stick with Patrick. Mayor of Kingstown is amazing. Landman. Like, there's so many good shows on Paramount plus, so please check it out. It's pretty damn.

[Jamie]

Oh, Adam, I saw a great movie this weekend.

[Adam]

Oh, what'd you say?

[Jamie]

What do you think?

[Adam]

An old movie or you went to the theater?

[Jamie]

Theater?

[Adam]

I don't have any idea what's out right now.

[Heath]

Like I know.

[Jamie]

Well, of course you know, because you're smart.

[Heath]

Lilo and Stitch.

[Jamie]

I did see that last week.

[Heath]

Oh, okay. Damn. Darn it.

[Adam]

What is. Oh, Superman.

[Jamie]

No, Mission Impossible. You're talking about Paramount plus.

[Adam]

Yeah, right. All the Mission Impossibles.

[Jamie]

Yes.

[Adam]

Yeah, yeah. There you go. All right. I got a tweet of the day real quick here.

[Jamie]

Are you doing the rowing thing again?

[Adam]

That's super botch of it from @mn sports fan5.mn sports fan5. I remember we did the whole thing, like the comparing movie characters to football players. So we had really not. Not much to offer. He said Marvin Harrison Jr. Is comparable to Tommy Boy. Dad was the man. He didn't do much right away, but he comes through in the end. Marvin Harrison Jr. Will be a beast. Okay, I like that. But the reason I bring this up. Did you know? I had no idea. Did you know Marvin Harrison Jr. Because, Jamie, you've mentioned several times Marvin Harrison Jr. Very similar rookie season. Marvin Harrison Senior. Do you know that Marvin Harrison Sr. Did not break out until his fourth year?

[Jamie]

His fourth year.

[Adam]

Fourth year. Yeah.

[Dave]

And that was.

[Jamie]

If you told the Cardinals, the careers will be the same, they'll take it.

[Adam]

I know, but that would be a little frustrating. But that was interesting to me.

[Dave]

That was Peyton's second year, if I'm remembering correctly.

[Jamie]

I'm not sure I'll double check, by the way. So Gamer Eric is the one that sent us the gif of you doing your little move. Yeah. And so I said, what do you think Adam Mazer was doing here? I sent that out. The best response, since you don't check your notifications, was, this is a classic guy dance move known as paddling the canoe. Very popular at wedding receptions.

[Adam]

Did anyone get it? I don't think I probably. I doubt anyone got it.

[Dave]

Yeah, I don't think anybody wanted to get it.

[Adam]

Yeah. Okay, we're gonna take a break. When we come back outlooks. AFC outlooks for 1, 2 for each division and just some stats to kind of get the conversation rolling. We'll be right back on fantasy football today.

[Dave]

I found a kid who swings a golf club like a dream.

[Adam]

I'd like to try to qualify him.

[Heath]

For the US Amateurs coming to Apple TV plus what's your name?

[Jamie]

I' into older guys, but I'm flattered.

[Heath]

A new comedy series. Stick. I don't want to go on this trip.

[Adam]

Your mouth's saying one thing, but those.

[Dave]

Eyes are saying something else.

[Heath]

From the home of Ted Lasso, you.

[Adam]

See your shot at redemption.

[Heath]

This is your mulligan, Owen Wilson.

[Adam]

This game takes and it takes. The game's finally giving me something back.

[Heath]

Stick.

[Adam]

You know, Arnold Palmer iced tea, lemonade. Mix it.

[Heath]

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[Adam]

Welcome back, everybody. Okay, so Heath, you responded to the text message first. That means you get to go first. You know how it works. So just some things that caught your eye while you were writing your outlooks. Give me the David Najoku stat.

[Heath]

David Najoku. You know, we talk, I think with Jerry Judy about how he was so good with Jameis Winston, but Jameis isn't there. And we hope that maybe Joe Flacco can get the job and be Jameis Winston. We don't have to have that hope with David Ajoku because we saw him play with Joe Flacco 5 games in 2023. 18.6 PPR fantasy points per game. You just heard that Joe Flacco is considered the favorite to be the starting quarterback week one. I think as long as like, they may decide late in the year that they want to go to one of the rookies because they're terrible. But Flacco is pretty clearly the best quarterback on the team and Najoku could absolutely be a top three three tight end. And I don't know that that really surprises anybody. But when you look at where these guys go in our drafts, especially like the difference between a Sam Laporta and A David Najoku. A lot of times Laporta goes a couple of rounds, maybe three rounds ahead of Najoku. I think if Flaco is the quarterback for 15 games, 12 games, maybe even Joker is going to be better in full PPR than Sam LaPorta.

[Jamie]

Where is the sliding scale for you though, as someone who does projections like for, for the Browns quarterbacks? Because like 13 sounds amazing, 10 sounds great, 6 sounds a little nervous. You know, I'm for the receivers.

[Heath]

Right. I, I think the diff. The only thing is like, it's like if he plays 15, then I'd bet on a joke of finishing tight in three. If he plays 12, I mean, if he plays right. Right. Plays 12 games, then I'd probably drop it to tight end five or six. And less than that, you'd be concerned. But there's also the nice thing about Cleveland having three other quarterbacks who are at least borderline NFL players. One of those guys could be just serviceable. I think the, the other quarterback, whoever it is, worries me a lot more for Jerry Judy than Joku because the way this offense is set up, a lot of times, like Dave talked about John who Smith catching a ball two yards from the line of scrimmage.

[Dave]

Yeah.

[Heath]

Thank you. I think he broke more than one tackle. I think he broke a few. But Najoku a lot of his targets like the Trey McBride targets because it's a similar offensive system where the tight ends the checkdown and so I still think we could see Najoku have a top eight production with any of the quarterbacks in this roster.

[Adam]

Yeah, Najoku's been number six per game in PPR two straight years. He has a tendency to, to get injured, miss some games, leave some games early.

[Heath]

And I do think Popinsky. Mr. Popinsky, thank you. Always in the chat. But he says Shador probably wouldn't be any worse for the weapons. I think that the thing that's special about Flacco is that when he starts, they throw a bunch of passes. He's a guy who's a veteran with the, the ability to get in the huddle and say, okay, we're not doing that, we're gonna throw a pass this time. Yeah, if Shador starts, I'd expect a much more run heavy offense.

[Jamie]

Well, I think it also comes down to how well Judkins is playing because this offense, when, when Stefanski initially got there, had a dominant Nick Chubb and then Flacco's success, which got them to the playoffs, was without Nick Chubb and without A strong run game. And last year they did not have a run game basically at all. And so now you have the potential of a run game.

[Heath]

Right?

[Jamie]

So does that sort of take away? I mean, look, Flacco, that season, those six games, he was over 300 yards in five of them, you know, so yeah, he led them to the playoffs. Could he have similar success? Success? Obviously, you know, there's, there's, there's the chance for it. But I would think that his numbers come, I don't know, drastically down, but they come down and it's going to have a trickle down effect to all these guys again if the run game is working, because this defense is still going to be good, you know, whether they're great, we'll see. But they have a chance to be still really good. And so how much does the offense have to have Flacco throwing the ball over the place? Because yes, he does have that ability and certainly more so than one of the younger quarterbacks. But will this offense need him to do that? Because I think at that point in the season when it was happening, when he was there, they needed him to do it.

[Heath]

And, and they're probably going to start oh and four, but they've got a lot of winnable games after that.

[Adam]

Joe Flacco, in those five games to end the season in 2023, he was on pace for 5,494 yards and 44 touchdowns and 27 interceptions. He threw 41 passes per game. So he will not be on a 5,500 yard, 44 touchdown pace. But David Ajoku has had a stretch of at least five games in three consecutive seasons where he has averaged 14.2 to 15.8 PPR fantasy points per game. In 2022, it was only five games. Then he got injured and struggled. Coming back in 2023 was his last 11 games, half of those with Flacco, half of them were 6 without Flacco, 5 with Flacco. 20. So that's 11 games in 2023 he averaged 15.4 PPR points per game. Last eight games last year he averaged 15.8 PPR points per game. It was a lot of Jamis, but also one Watson game I think, and one Dorian Thompson Robinson game. Okay, so that's our Najoku stat. By the way, the 18.6-PPR fantasy points per game that Heath mentioned, that was five games of Flacco in 2023. I'm going to talk about John who Smith. That's exactly what John who Smith averaged in his last Eight games last year. But that'll be later in the show. Heath, your other stat is on Justin Fields who. So Heath did the AFC north outlooks. The way we do it, it's the guys who are on the AFC north teams last year, so. But anyway, tell me about Justin Fields.

[Heath]

Fields has been a guy who's bothered me all off season because I haven't been able to get my projection high enough to where I want to rank him. And as I was going through an azer stating his career, I recognized that it's a really easy argument to say Justin fields has top 10 floor. If you look at what he did back in 2022, he was basically QB9 from the time he became the starter. If you look at what he did the following year in 2023 and I'm pulling this up so I have exact information here. He was a top six quarterback on a per game basis. You look at what he did last year, he was QB9 before the team went to Russell Wilson. Like QB7, QB9, QB9 in three years if you count the games that he started and finished.

[Adam]

Yeah.

[Heath]

And their backup quarterbacks to Rod Taylor.

[Adam]

A six point passing touchdown. Right, Right. Even better in four.

[Heath]

Right. And like I think there's risk with Flacco who we think is the best quarterback there and we'll start the season they fall out of contention and they want to go to Shador Sanders or they want to go to Dylan Gabriel and see what they've got in the young guys because they're not contending. The jets don't have anybody that you would want to start if you fall out of contention. I think the only risk for Justin Fields not being a starting quarterback this year is that he gets hurt.

[Adam]

I'm going to give you his 17 game pace rushing totals just yards and touchdowns in his last three games. The last three seasons, games with a 90 snapshare or higher. Because remember last year he like got in a few games with Pittsburgh, whatever, like barely played. So this is what he's been on pace rushing wise in his last three seasons. 2022, 1300 yards, nine touchdowns. 2023, 866 yards, six touchdowns. That was his best passing season by the way. 2024. Only 655 rushing yards, 14 rushing touchdowns. I think his yards per carry was a little low last year. So yeah, I mean he just runs so effectively that I. Yeah, it's a great point you make. Just he's actually got a high floor.

[Heath]

Like you look at his passing efficiency and it hasn't been good, but the last three years or really every year, 6.9 is the worst year he's had in terms of yards per attempt. He's at 7.0 yards per attempt for his career. That's really close to average.

[Adam]

Okay, and Dave, you wanted to add on to that with. You wanted to talk about the jets passing game, I believe.

[Dave]

Yeah, a couple of things. First of all, I remember being at Bears minicamp before the 23 season, and fields told the media he didn't want to run for a thousand yards every year. It wasn't a goal of his to use his legs. He wanted to be a better thrower that year. In 2023, I just, I happen to have the numbers right here. His completion rate was 61.4%. That's not great. He attempted 30 passes per game. His ADOT was 8.1. His yards per attempt was 7.0. So a little bit better, incrementally better than 6.9% is touchdown rate, passing 4.4%. That's okay. 82% catchable pass rate. That's not good. Still average 21 fantasy points per game. Five games with 25 plus. That was pretty close to what Aaron Rodgers numbers were like and what his efficiency metrics were like last year. So just as a passer, he had the same type of efficiency that Rogers had in 2024 when he was throwing a lot in 2023. He didn't throw that much with the, with the Steelers last season, but his efficiency was about the same, probably a little bit better. His completion rate was actually 66%. So as a thrower, the baseline and Heath, I think you'd agree with this is that he's average and he can do enough to help one receiver. We saw that in 2023 where one receiver had a really good fantasy year, and that was DJ Moore. Bunch of games with seven plus targets. He did great. Pickens didn't do as well last year. Almost every game that Pickens played with Fields, he had at least seven targets in those games. Only once did he really come through. I just wonder how good of a receiver Pickens is. You can make the argument that he's not as good as DJ Moore, certainly. And I think that Garrett Wilson, you can make the argument is a better receiver than Pickens is. And so it's kind of made me a little more encouraged to draft Garrett Wilson at his current adp. And I, at one point, I was the guy poo pooing Justin Fields, saying there's no way he should be a top 12 quarterback. I have him as a top 12 quarterback now. I want to draft him to be my starter, at least to begin the year. I don't want him to be my only fantasy quarterback. But I think I. I think we're going to see it from the Lions this year where. Where they try and reel in Justin Fields and not have him throw as much as they had Rogers throw last year. Rogers attempted 34 passes per game. I don't think Fields is going to do that, but I think he'll throw enough to get you decent passing numbers and some good rushing numbers and especially those rushing touchdowns that he's worthy of being a top 12 fantasy quarterback on draft day.

[Adam]

You said the Lions. You meant the Jets. But they have the Lions system coming in.

[Dave]

Offensive coordinator and basically like a bunch of Lions coaches now. I mean, Aaron Glenn was the defensive coordinator for the Lions, and now he's on the Jets. Yes, I meant to say that.

[Adam]

Yeah. No, it's. It's important to note Tanner Angstrand, the new offensive coordinator for the jets coming over from Detroit, Garrett Wilson. We'll just wrap up on this. Garrett Wilson is wide receiver 14 in the CBS early average draft position. I'm surprised by that. That's 32nd overall before Tyree Kill, Devonte Adams, Rasheed rice, Marvin Harrison Jr. I guess I'm not surprised to see him going like top 15, but I'm surprised he's ahead of Hill. I'm surprised he's 32nd overall. That's what surprises me the most. Jamie, quick thought on Garrett Wilson's ADP. Wide receiver 14, 32nd overall.

[Jamie]

That's our ADP.

[Adam]

Yeah. Just from the only fans drafts.

[Jamie]

Oh, yeah. I. I wouldn't put too much stock in that thing.

[Adam]

No. But I mean, there's not a lot of ADP going. But is that also including the mock drafts that we have done or is it just those fan mock drafts?

[Dave]

Dave? I believe it's just the fans.

[Jamie]

Okay, what's he on?

[Adam]

Fantasy pros in the rankings?

[Jamie]

No, the. They're 80.

[Dave]

No, what is 80p is.

[Adam]

Why are we always in a fight? You know, I can do this. He's wide receiver 13, going 24th overall.

[Jamie]

Yeah. Way too soon in both.

[Dave]

Yeah. Yeah. I can't. I can't do that. I can't do 24th.

[Adam]

All right, let's go to Jamie's outlooks here on the AFC South Colts note on Anthony Richardson. And did you. Did you come away, you know, writing up your Richardson outlook, looking back at what he did last year, encouraged or Discouraged.

[Jamie]

Discourage.

[Adam]

Okay, go on.

[Jamie]

I mean, again, this is really all about what improvements he hopefully will have made this off season with, you know, working out with a, you know, I guess noted quarterback guru, the guy who helped Josh Allen with his mechanics and staying healthy, being more dedicated to his craft. You know, these are all knocks on him that, you know, I think have been documented and certainly impacted him last year. The, the best part about it is, and we just got finished talking about Justin Fields, is Anthony Richardson's running potential. You know, so you look, you know, you can give the numbers what he did over his 10 game healthy game pace and how he would have done in a full season. You know, that's what you're drafting. You know, he's got to improve as a pastor. He had more interceptions than touchdowns, which is never going to be good and it's not going to keep him on the field, especially when they paid Daniel Jones what they paid him. But there's an opportunity for him to take hold of this offense. I mean, if you pick a quarterback that you trust as a thrower, put them in Indianapolis with the weapons that they have, with the addition of Tyler Warren and what Josh down showed and we know what Michael Pittman's been capable of with a good quarterback, you know, at least competent quarterback. I mean, it'd be one of the best receiving cores in the league or in the conversation, you know, if Warren's as legitimate as his draft stock is. So he's got everything in front of him to be successful. If he takes advantage of it, he's going to be a top 10 quarterback. But you can't look at what he did last year and say, okay, yeah, he's good. I mean, clearly Colts don't feel that way and I can't imagine fantasy managers do.

[Adam]

He has averaged in two seasons Anthony Richardson in the games that he's played more than 90% of the snaps. He's averaged 19.3 fantasy points per game and 6 point per passing touchdown leagues, which is not really good enough. But obviously there's just so much potential there.

[Jamie]

I would think that that number would surprise people though it not.

[Adam]

If you think back to what he did in 2023, it was very, it was only three games, I think maybe. Right. Well, yeah, I guess it was insane. But, but last year was a struggle.

[Heath]

And the problem is partially that he's not had very many games at all in two seasons that he's played 90 of the snaps because of injuries and because of his own poor play. And we only saw him really what? Played 12 games at Florida as a starter.

[Adam]

Yeah.

[Heath]

And so that, that is both a problem for evaluating the floor and it's reason to give you Hope as a 23 year old with very little experience that he could take a leap.

[Adam]

Okay. And I, I think what encourages me is something that people might just laugh at, so feel free. So he got benched and he came back. Weeks 11 through 16, he made five final starts, scored 31 points, 30 points against the Jets. You know, great game. He scored 13 points against the Lions the next week. But we've talked about this. I can't remember the details. That was the game where one of their tight ends dropped a wide open touchdown. Or maybe that was the Denver. One of the two games he had his wide receiver like his wide receivers and his tight ends really stunk for him. They dropped a lot of balls. Then he scored 25 points against the Patriots. Then at Denver, one of the hardest matchups in football, 14 points and then 22 points against Tennessee. He was, he was pretty damn usable. I mean, that's three of five games where he's scoring 22.2 or more fantasy points. One bad game at Denver, one bad game where I think he was a victim of a really bad drop touchdown. I think he came back and actually did pretty good job. You know, good job. Not necessarily in football sense, but in fantasy sense. All right, but that's obviously like a very optimistic spin on Anthony Richardson. Jamie.

[Jamie]

Yeah, I think the, the optimism will come is if he looks good in camp. Daniel Jones is no sniff of being the snorting quarterback. And he comes out week one. You're hearing a lot of buzz about Tyler Warren and how he's performing. You're seeing, you know, Pittman with the back. Pittman played through a back injury last year. I mean, that's part of it too. You know, he obviously wasn't good, but he was not at 100 and he's connecting well with Josh Downs. Look, they have again, good pieces in place. And if he's a competent passer, which we know has been the knock on him, clearly, as you know, and, and a lot of it is an experience as Heath alluded to. So if he comes in looking better, performing better, and doesn't have to be the. It's not going to be Lamar Jackson, you know, I mean, that, that's, you know, someone who's going to run and throw at a high level, but he could still be in that Justin Fields range. And you're getting him at such a great price. Like he's the perfect type of player to draft late. That could be a league winner.

[Adam]

All right, let's talk about Brian Thomas Jr. Who you can draft early and could be a league winner here. And just talk about the tear. You want me to read the stat or you want to read it? Yes, please.

[Jamie]

I don't have it from me.

[Adam]

Yeah, he's. He scored at least 17.3 PPR points in four five of his last six games, including three outings with at least 23.9 points over that span. During that six game stretch, Brian Thomas Jr. Had at least 10 targets and 76 yards in each game while averaging 7.5 receptions for 99.8 yards and just under one touchdown per game. He was just, he was just so good. Do you think he carries that into 20, 25?

[Jamie]

I mean, I hope he does. You know, the, the positive I think is Liam Cohen stepping in as the head coach because I think the offense will be more creative. He did all of that with Mac Jones. So is this going to be Trevor Lawrence, you know, following a similar game plan, or is it going to be now the addition of Travis Hunter taking things away? From what I heard from OTAs, they're moving everybody around and giving guys an opportunity to play different spots in the offense and in the receiving core, which hopefully be a plus for all of these guys. Also could be a negative, you know, where there's some targets going different directions because he was dominating targets, understandably so. There was no Evan Ingram, there was no Christian Kirk at this point on the team. So I think there's pros and cons to it both ways. But this is another player who you see if you're watching on the screen, if you recall, you know, we were talking about him coming out of the NFL draft as somewhat raw, 22 years old, you know, did all this in, in what was, I think a little bit of a surprise rookie season because just again, the expectations were not that he was going to be this dynamic. And so hopefully there's still room to grow as he, you know, understands the route tree more, gets more in, in tune with the offense and more in tune with Trevor Lawrence. But again, how much of a target crunch will be there so with the other guys? So I, I think there's just a lot to love about the upside of what Brian Thomas can be based on that six game stretch, based on what we saw last year. So late round one, early round two, I, I'd be very surprised, as you know, you'll read in the outlook if he's past the top 15 overall picks in anything that resembles a PPR league.

[Adam]

So I have this spreadsheet here of wide receivers since 2000 who had 900 or more yards as rookies. Obviously Brian Thomas Jr. Crushed that 1282 yards and you've heard it many times in the show, the 900 yard receiving club as a rookie. It's a pretty damn good group. Most of these guys end up having, I don't know, at worst like a Terry McClure. Not at worst. There have been much worse players but like I guess I'd be surprised if a guy who had 900 yards. Maybe we should up it a little bit more now that we have a 17 game season had a worse career than like a Terry McLaurin. But you do have guys like Michael Clayton, Kelvin Benjamin who tore his ACL in his second season, Eddie Royal, Mike Williams of Tampa Bay. One of the things that these, that hurts these guys in their second year. And I would throw Anquan Bolden in there. He had a terrible second year. Well, they drafted Larry Fitzgerald. One of the things is added target competition that they didn't necessarily have in their rookie seasons. I know you've brought that up, Dave, that the Travis Hunter signing has gave you maybe a little pause at first on Brian Thomas Jr. Do you still feel that way? How do you feel about that?

[Dave]

I, I want to buy the talent and I want to buy the offense and that's why Brian Thomas Jr. He's around two pick. I don't want to take him in round one, but round two for sure. If I can get him, I'll take them. Here's, here's, here's what I'm worried about. It's just there is some sort of a target crunch. Jamie talked about how much volume BTJ had in those games with Mac Jones. What's the reality of that repeating? Certainly over 17 games, I think it's low. And so my first thought was, all right, well Liam Cohen had some really good receivers and pass catchers. Just overall in Tampa last year, how many times in the same game did multiple bucks have eight plus targets? So forget about 11, let's just make it eight because I think BTJ could be pretty damn good on just eight targets per game and it only happened four times. And obviously part of it is Chris Godwin got hurt. But even when Godwin got hurt, Kate Otten stepped up one of those times. Rashad White randomly had eight targets in a game. That's if there's a thing to worry about. And I think it's Just more of a nitpick than anything else. I'm worried about BTJ having double digit targets every single game. Plus if the run game just happens to get going for the Jaguars, that could cut into both Hunter and btj. I don't see that happening. I think that's a real reason to be worried. But when I'm lining up Brian Thomas Jr vs. A lot of those other wide receivers in late round one and early round two, I think his target volume works against him compared to those other guys. And so BTJ falls off just a little bit. Still somebody I want, but he's more of like a top 15 overall player than a top 10 or a top 12.

[Adam]

You know, I just bring this up. I'm on Ross St. Brown at 142 targets in 17 games. Justin Jefferson was down to 153 targets in 17 games. You know, these guys are not averaging last year and last year they weren't. We've seen it before for Jefferson, but they didn't average.

[Jamie]

And those are two great comps because they're in crowded receiving. Course.

[Adam]

Yeah, but I don't think, I don't think Brian Thomas Jr. Is in a crowded receiving core. I think they've got two players worth a damn and nothing else, basically.

[Jamie]

Well, I mean, certainly by comparison to those other teams, I mean they're not Minnesota and they're not Detroit. But I do think that you're going to see Diamond Brown get some, you know, opportunities that we probably didn't expect and Breton Strange will get some opportunities we probably didn't expect. But yes, it's, it's less diverse than even Tampa, you know, and certainly less diverse than those two teams. But I think it's still worth bringing up that. Oh yeah, you are talking about guys that were still very good that did have not necessarily 10 targets per game.

[Heath]

And I think Travis Hunter could be better than the number two wide receiver. They're in either of those places. Like it's the, the, the receiving. The targets aren't as. There aren't as many of them in Jacksonville. But the, the number 2 or 1B might be better than Jameson Williams and Jordan Addison. In fact, I think he will be.

[Adam]

Jacksonville averaged only 218.6 yards per game last year passing. So that's. The other angle is like, let's get to like 2.235would be a big boost. All right, well, that's not that far. That's, that's average. Sorry, go ahead. Good.

[Jamie]

We talked about Baker last week and regression and I brought this up on FFT Express. The Adam that these conversations about the Liam Cohen offense and the weapon, like, just makes me excited about Trevor Lawrence. I know that's not something we say a lot or at least have said last year. There's a lot to like about a situation based on where you can draft him.

[Adam]

Yeah. Now look, I mean, after being so loyal to Trevor Lawrence for so long, I finally traded him away in our super flex dynasty league. And I. I hate. It was before the draft pick and I hate myself for it, but.

[Jamie]

All right, let's get in return.

[Adam]

It was part of the Jaden Daniels deal. It was like Lawrence and McConk. I think it was Lawrence and McConkey. And next year's first for Daniels and 1.7 this year. So we'll see. All right, we'll take a break, come back. Dave's going to talk about Greg Roman's track record with running backs. That's Chargers coordinator Greg Roman and Xavier Worthy versus man coverage. We'll be right back on fft.

[Jamie]

Hey there, travelers.

[Heath]

Kaley Cuoco here.

[Jamie]

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[Adam]

Go to your happy price.

[Dave]

Priceline pro baller Lonzo ball for buzzballs ready to go. Cocktails take 12.

[Heath]

Buzz balls just dropped their biggest blue balls.

[Dave]

Script says biggies blue balls.

[Heath]

Lonzo, take 13.

[Jamie]

Blue balls just dropped their biggest buzz balls.

[Adam]

Ugh.

[Heath]

Let's try a vocal exercise.

[Jamie]

Buzz balls. Biggies.

[Dave]

Blue balls.

[Jamie]

Buzz balls.

[Adam]

Biggies.

[Jamie]

Blue balls. Big balls just drop. Get blue balls this season with buzz balls.

[Dave]

Please drink responsibly.

[Heath]

Bu.

[Adam]

Spirit wine and malt. 15% alcohol by volume.

[Heath]

Bus Balls, LLC.

[Adam]

Carrollton, Texas. Welcome back. All right, Dave, so you wrote the AFC west outlooks, and, you know, you looked at the, you looked at the track record for Greg Roman with running backs. What'd you find out? And are you. How concerned are you?

[Dave]

Greg Roman's been an offensive play caller in the NFL for a long time.

[Adam]

Let.

[Dave]

Let's. Let's go all the way back. I think his earliest year as a play caller was 2011. How many times Has a running back, any running back, veteran, Rookie, whatever, average 15 or more PPR points in a fantasy season.

[Adam]

I'm going to say, I think I know you told me the answer, but I forgot. I'm going to say, oh, okay. I'm gonna say three times.

[Heath]

I will say two. And I'm just gonna say Mark Ingram is one of them.

[Adam]

LaShawn McCoy definitely did it at least once, if not twice. I'm gonna say two McCoys, two McCoys and one Ingram. And now Jamie, you can answer.

[Dave]

No, he doesn't even have to because he nailed it. It's two. Mark Ingram was one of them. 2019, that's the last time it happened. And then LaShawn McCoy 15 on the dot in 2016, but that's it. And he's been. I don't have the exact number of years. We can ballpark it at 10, but 2 out of 10 ain't great. Now, same question, but only rookies. How many times has a rookie running back average 15? Well, obviously the answer is zero. How many times does rookie running back average 12 PPR points? Yeah, look at me, a genius. 12 PPR points in a season under Greg Roman?

[Jamie]

None.

[Adam]

Yeah. Zero.

[Heath]

Yeah. What do you mean? Jamie's right again.

[Adam]

I didn't even answer the first time.

[Dave]

Jamie always being right. I said you're all right. Congratulations. Everybody wins. I feel like Azer is the host of a game show now. Carlos Williams is the all time leader in PPR points per game under Greg Roman as a rookie. 11.3, 11 games. That's it. J.K. dobbins had 11.2 in his rookie year. That makes me worried about Omarion Hampton. And just to double check guys, Harbaugh, I mean his, his play caller in San Francisco was Roman. So there was never a running back as a rookie that had even double digit PPR points and never did a running back in Under Harbaugh have 15 PPR points. Dobbins was the closest last year he got to 14.8. Gore had a year where he was at 14.4. How many games? Jim Harbo was the head coach at Michigan from 2015 till 2023. How many games did a freshman running back have? 15 carries.

[Jamie]

The answer is not real stretch to make that comp.

[Adam]

Yeah, now we're getting in the weeds a little bit here.

[Heath]

He's never had a first round running back, right? Hyde was round two, Dobbins was round two.

[Dave]

He had Zach sharpening. Who was round two?

[Adam]

Well, who had Zach Charbonnet? Not in the end, no no, we're talking. He's talking about in the NFL. They've never tried.

[Dave]

So if you're going to play the draft Capital game, that's fair. He's never had a first round running back on his team.

[Heath]

I have faked Hampton's ranking for most of the summer because the projections are very much aligned with what Dave's saying. Like, I think Najee Harris is the type of guy that annoys us by how much he plays early on. And Roman's always wanted to have two running backs.

[Dave]

Yep.

[Adam]

My only thing is the optimistic cases. Yeah, one of them is good and one of them isn't. That's just kind of true.

[Dave]

So many games has Naji missed.

[Adam]

He's missed zero games. And as Jamie always says, he never fumbles. But also he never makes a big play, like, ever.

[Heath]

And he coaches like guys who just do their job.

[Adam]

Yeah, that's not their. Their job is not to average like 3.9 yards per carry and never make an explosive play. If you have a running back who can do a lot better than that and be good in the passing game, game, he'll play over Naji Harris, especially one year, 5ish million dollar deal or something.

[Heath]

I think it was 7.

[Adam]

There's no commitment there. And you know, you don't. You shouldn't draft a running back in the first round to not use them a lot. But most of the time running backs go in the first round, get 15 touches per game. Sometimes they don't. And I think you could look at Rashad Penny was one of the guys who didn't. Christian McCaffrey didn't. Both of them had established veteran running backs on their teams already, and so you could draw that comparison. Jamie, are you more optimistic? Oh, sorry, Heath, I cut you off.

[Heath]

That's okay. I was gonna say I've got Hampton at 12.8 right now.

[Adam]

Touches per game. That'd be awful. That'll be horrible.

[Jamie]

I'm optimistic for the scenario. You paint Adam, that he's going to be the more talented running back, but I don't think it's going to happen early in the season. That's the problem, you know, so you're gonna have to be patient with Hampton and kind of wait for, oh, wow, look at these big plays. Oh, how are we keeping this off the field? Oh, how are we not giving him more chances? And you know, then he's either going to succumb to the pressure or he's not of what either the fan base is saying or maybe people in the locker Room are saying because they're seeing that Hampton is that good, you know, so, you know, look, Naji could benefit from a change of scenery. I think as we saw last year, you know, Dobbins had been good in Baltimore and then he kind of, I don't know if he got it better in, in Los Angeles with the Chargers, but he just stayed healthy. Maybe that's just the, the bottom line of it. But there's, there is a lot of reason for optimism with Hampton because of the short term investment in Harris and what he's shown. But still, I think, you know, I feel like I come on the same side that Heath and Dave are like, you know, coaches see things in practice and games and you know, while he, he may not have the explosive play, he's also not going to run backwards or maybe not fumble or maybe not drop a pass. You know, like Naji's still also a first round running back himself, and while he hasn't lived up to the billing, he's still a pretty talented guy.

[Heath]

And Adam, you brought up the passing game. I, I'll be surprised if Hampton's the primary pass protector week one or maybe even week four. Like Harris, again, a professional running back. And in the Greg Roman offense the last three seasons, this isn't the top running back target. This is all of the running back targets for the entire running back room. 55, 63, 83. That's like maybe you get four targets per game for all of the running.

[Adam]

Backs combined, but they, they seemed more willing.

[Heath]

Okay, the 55 was last year. I've heard people say like Dobbins did more in the passing game.

[Jamie]

He did.

[Heath]

They threw 55, three targets per game to the running back position last year.

[Adam]

All right. But he had 32 catches in 13 games. J.K. dobbins. So I don't expect like a 50 catch season, but I'm hopeful for a 35 to 40 catch season for Hampton, but it could be much less than that. I'm just hopeful for more playing time for Hampton. But I just want to point out that all of this Greg Roman research, he's been 11, 11 seasons as, as his offensive court, as an offensive coordinator. He's produced one wide receiver that's finished top 12 per game in PPR 1, and it was Sammy Watkins. So if you guys are going to do all this, if anyone's going to do all this, you better do it to lad McConkey too. But I just think that we saw a willingness last year in the second half of the season to throw the ball more than we've ever seen from a Greg Roman or Jim Harbaugh offense in the NFL. And that's because they didn't have, they didn't have Colin Kaepernick and to Rod Taylor and Lamar Jackson.

[Dave]

Okay, that's half of it. The other half was they couldn't run the.

[Adam]

That's not true. That they couldn't run the ball. That it did not. It was not only when J.K. dobbins was hurt, it was also when Dobbins was healthy. They put the ball in the hands of their best player because they had. This is the best passing quarterback that they've had. At least the version of Lamar Jackson that, that Greg Roman had. This is the best.

[Jamie]

I don't know what did Jim Harbaugh have in high school with his running back?

[Adam]

Yeah, go ahead.

[Heath]

I, I also think like that they were 28th in past attempts last year they were 28th in past attempts. His last year in Baltimore they were 9th. One year in Baltimore they were 29th or worse every other year of Greg Roman's career in pass attempts.

[Adam]

Yeah.

[Heath]

And so like a six game stretch at the end of the year when their only good running back was hurt more than.

[Adam]

No, but more than that. And it wasn't just hurt and it.

[Heath]

Was still 31 pass attempts for per game, which is way lower than what we're hoping for.

[Adam]

Like, honestly, I don't even know why I'm making this argument because I'm talking about Hampton. So you know what, I'm with you. Like they are going to run the ball a lot and there's going to be plenty of opportunities. And I guess my final thought, I will not have the last word here. My final thought is last year they went in with a committee and J.K. dobbins outplayed Gus Edwards and J.K. dobblins became basically a feature back and a must start guy. And then he got hurt, unfortunately. But why can't it be the same? They go, it takes three to four weeks. Hampton is outperforming Najee Harris and then rocket ship emoji three.

[Jamie]

Right. That's the, that's the hope. I think the, the thing would be two things of this, you know, first, does, does Hampton get those chances early in the season? Because I don't think, I don't think it's fair to call Hampton right now the best of J.K. dobbins, which we may have seen last year, because he's got to work up to that, you know, even though he may be more explosive all those Things, you know, Dobbins has been, you know, pretty good running back when healthy. And I don't think Naj is going to be as bad as Gus Edward was, you know, so that's, that's part of this as well. The other thing would be is, and you should know this as a Knicks fan, watching Tom Thibodeau enough to know that sometimes coaches just don't change their approach no matter how many times it should happen. He did that. No, he didn't.

[Adam]

Yes, he did.

[Jamie]

No, he didn't. That Greg Roman may have stretches of changing things. Can he commit to doing it over a full season? And so, yes, this is the best quarterback he's ever had from a throwing perspective. Yes, there's a lot to like about still lad McConkey and him building off of what he did last year to, you know, go back to the passing game and clearly the more explosive running back and player. But these guys are who they are and so they've. He's had a lot of success. The ultimate success. No, but you know, they've gotten to Super Bowl. They've been, you know, in competitive seasons, year in, year out. I think the strength of this team is still going to be or the, the mantra of this team is still going to be to run the ball. So it should benefit Hampton and Harris. Just a matter of will Hampton ever be the lead running back consistently if Naji's healthy. And again, Naji never gets hurt.

[Adam]

I'll give you this, my. I will have the last word. A lot of success. Greg Roman gets criticized a lot. Eleven years as an offensive coordinator, he's been top 12 in scoring eight times. They're probably going to have a good offense. All right, we're out of time basically. But Dave, go ahead, give me your.

[Dave]

Xavier Worthy Note, he had Target shares of 16% and 21% against zone coverage in the regular season and playoffs, respectively. Those are pretty low target shares. But when it was man coverage that the Chiefs were facing, his Target shares were 22% and 37%. In the playoffs, the Chiefs saw zone coverage. This won't surprise Heath at all. On two thirds of their regular season snaps and 70% in the playoffs. It does make me wonder a little bit if I've gone too far on Xavier Worthy. Because. Because I don't think teams are going to change their approach against Kansas City. They don't want to give up the big play. And yeah, some of Worthy's best plays were against on coverage. But if the target volume is going to shrink, especially with Kelsey Getting in shape and Rashid Rice looking like his old self. Maybe they run the ball a little bit better. Maybe I'm a little too the term they use in the stock market is overweight. Maybe I'm too into Xavier Worthy calling him a top 20 type of fantasy wide receiver.

[Adam]

Because sum that up because you think.

[Dave]

Because the Chiefs will see more zone coverage and he doesn't get, he hasn't gotten the same type of target share against zone coverage than he does against man coverage for obvious reasons. Because he's fast.

[Adam]

Very interesting. Yeah. Heath, what are your thoughts on that?

[Heath]

I've got him wide receiver, 31 in the projections, just a little bit higher in the rankings. I think if we get to July and the Chiefs open training camp and Rice has no restrictions, which it sounds like he won't, and there's just complete silence still on any potential legal problems, then it's really hard to rank Worthy as a top 30 wide receiver. Because if Rice is 100, right, and Kelsey is okay and Rice is not suspended, I think Worthy is probably more of a best ball wide receiver. 3.

[Adam]

Ouch.

[Jamie]

I don't know. I, I, I. Look, we have no idea how this is going to look.

[Heath]

Right.

[Jamie]

If everybody's healthy and, and playing at their best. Because this may be the most diverse group that Mahomes has ever had.

[Heath]

Yep.

[Jamie]

And maybe Reed's ever had. You know, I mean, you're talking about Rice, Worthy, Marquis Brown, Travis, Kelsey, like, and you've talked about this quite a bit, Adam, you know, in terms of the Chief's success and Mahomes, his correlation to some of his, you know, drop in statistics, maybe the defense isn't as good as it has been the last couple years. I don't think it's going to drop off significantly because of spags, but, you know, maybe it's just not as good. They all may be good, you know, and so it could be that, you know, Rice has never had this type of competition. Also, you know, Worthy did a lot of what he did last year. And so to Dave's, you know, research, which is great. It's also, we're talking about a rookie wide receiver growing into his role and understanding how to use him better and him understanding how to get open and, you know, zone and man coverage and, and those type of things that go with the maturation process. So I don't have a problem drafting him as a number two receiver right now. I think, again, he's in that group that we talk about a lot, you know, 20 through 40. You know, he's he could be, he could be an easy number two receiver weekend week out he could be, you know, just a consistent wide receiver three and if you're in a two receiver league he's going to frustrate you. So it's, it's somewhat of a guessing game but again you're banking on the talent that he showed and you know I, I know I brought this up. I think it's not the first time anybody said it is like he feels like he could be Tyree Kill. You know I mean based on how they used him and use Hill in his rookie season again Hill didn't have the same type of competition but I mean speed for days, creative coach, amazing quarterback. Like there's a lot to love about what this kid could become and maybe better than Rice who's coming off a significant knee injury. May not see the best of rice until 2026 even if he's healthy. So I have no problem taking a chance on him as number two or two.

[Heath]

Just.

[Dave]

I'm sorry his 80. His, his fan mock draft ADP is 47.8 or earlier or later or just.

[Jamie]

Well I think, I think somewhere depending on how quickly receivers come off the board. Round four, round five. I mean I've taken him, I did a magazine draft. I've taken a couple best ball drafts. Like he's an easy target, you know if you get past the top, you know, 20ish wide receivers because that's where.

[Heath]

He goes between 2025 and to Jamie's point about the. And we'll update this as the off season goes on but the 20 through 40 is almost perfect. When I look at my projections, the difference for me between wide receiver 20 and wide receiver 38 in the projections is one fantasy point per game. So like if you just want to pick the guy you think has the most upside in that in that huge blob of wide receiver 2/13 worthy has the upside. It's just a lot of guys in that range do.

[Adam]

I looked at a few wide receivers yards per out run against zone as rookies so Tyree Kill was one that I looked at. He was insane. He was so good against zone. One guy who was bad against not bad but not good against zone as a rookie and then great the next two years was Jalen Waddle. I don't know where I'm going with this but just to say that I don't know. I don't know how predictable rookie year stats are when it comes to just splitting it up Zone versus man.

[Dave]

If you're good at football. You're going to beat both coverages, no questions asked last year.

[Jamie]

It's also just, you know, talking to enough coaches, you know, the, the playbook for these guys grows tremendously. You know, year one, year two, and you know, for him it was probably mid season. Okay. Oh, holy bleep. We just lost Rice. We don't have Brown. Like, here's the next chapter, kid. And here's the next six chapters. And here's, you know, the, the next 58 plays that you got to learn quickly. And you know, again, I think there's, there's, there's room to grow, which could be scary based on what we saw in those final, you know, five or six games.

[Dave]

Man, that's what keeps him at 20 for me in my receiver rankings.

[Jamie]

Yes. And, And I'm sure, you know, there's.

[Dave]

It could be top five. Good.

[Jamie]

The flip side of it, the top side will be probably with Rice not being there. I get it. But, you know, the flip side of that is Rice is back to being himself. Kelsey has a bounce back season. Marquis Brown is just, you know, serviceable enough. And, and there's. He gets sort of lost in the shell.

[Adam]

Talk about chapters. Just think about when you were in high school. Oh, you get a book to read. The. The next chapter is like super long. No pictures. I hated that. You'd scan, you'd flip through to see, oh, how long is this chapter gonna be? It's super long. Every page is just like a bunch of words. Sorry, you gave me like PTSD of.

[Heath]

You know, you know, some adults still read at them.

[Adam]

Yeah, but if you're doing that, you're doing it, you're doing it for fun. So you don't care how long the chapters are. Back in high school, man. Did I ever tell you my theory? I think it's really. I think I said this on the. I'm sorry if I did. I've had this conversation with, in person, with people, because I truly believe this. I think it is a bad idea to make kids read these, you know, old classics. Jane Eyre and David Copperfield and stuff like. Because that is not going to get most kids excited about reading. Like you should.

[Jamie]

David Copperfield.

[Heath]

I have not read any of David Copperfield's works.

[Adam]

That's a book.

[Jamie]

It's a classic.

[Adam]

Yeah. Are you kidding? It's. Isn't that a Charles Dickens book?

[Heath]

It's a Dickens. No, it's a. It's character. It's a character in a book.

[Adam]

No, it's a book called David Copperfield.

[Heath]

Is it the name of it?

[Adam]

Yes, yes.

[Heath]

Yeah, I never read that. The Magician.

[Adam]

Big long one. No, before the Magician there was, there was the Dickens novel. Like that's the kind of stuff that made me hate reading. Having to read these extremely long, heavy, boring ass books. Like you can throw those in there. But I think they should let kids pick their own books or at least give them like new murder mysteries. Things like that are going to actually make them enjoy reading. I'm dead serious about this, by the way.

[Jamie]

So they should choose Dirty Dancing over the.

[Adam]

Yes, yes, absolutely. But just think about it because it makes, it makes sense. Like we're out of time like to.

[Jamie]

Talk about the guys that you have to talk about. But we got David Copper.

[Adam]

This is a really important message. I, I, I, I, I believe very firmly what I'm saying. I'm not joking. Let kids read books that they have actually have a chance to read. Now look, some of the, you know, going to love those books, but a lot of people are going to hate those books, myself included.

[Heath]

I understand your point, but a lot of the point of school is to teach kids that if they do things they don't want to do, then they get things that they want.

[Adam]

There's plenty of.

[Heath]

If all you do is read things you want to read, there's, you don't learn, you don't learn the habit.

[Adam]

It's not all you do, but it's, it should be at least part of what you do. And there's almost all of school is doing things that you don't want to do. Like we can give kids a little bit of a break here. Okay, I just have two points to make my AFC east outlooks. John who Smith averaged 18.6 PPR points per game in his last eight games. It is a stretch that was so good, so impressive that it is hard to overlook 8th year breakout. Very unusual, very hard to bank on it. If he goes to Pittsburgh, he'll be basically undraftable. But that number, 18.6 points per game, that's what you said he did with, that Najoku did with Flacco. In five games in 2023, this was eight games for Smith. And the best part is Smith's not getting a quarterback downgrade. You know, like it might be that for Najoku, but it's the same quarterback. In fact, two of those games were without Tua. So huge number there for John who and he was, he was a league winner down the stretch. So just want to bring that up. He's, he's like consensus ranking, something like tight end 10 to give him some.

[Heath]

Credit after Dave poo pooed him earlier. He has been over 5 yards after the catch per reception every year of his career.

[Dave]

He is a very nine explosive catches out of 88 last year.

[Heath]

A very good Yak player.

[Dave]

He was seventh among qualifying tight ends in yards after catch per reception. He was 27th out of 31 qualifying tight ends in explosive playwright.

[Adam]

Yeah, that doesn't that. So I do like that stat for wide receivers. I don't really care as much for tight ends because low adot tight ends are, are going to have low explosive play rates, but they also could have a ton of catches. So you see guys like Najoku, Evan Ingram be at the bottom of the explosive playlist. Like the joke, the Joku the joke. Who had the lowest yards per target among tight ends last year with 50 or more targets? 31 target, 31 tight ends? I think so really, they just rack up the catches though, and it just goes a really long way at that position.

[Dave]

Remember that yards after catch include yards behind the line of scrimmage.

[Adam]

Okay.

[Dave]

So when he catches a ball three yards behind the line of scrimmage and then he gains two yards, that's five yards after.

[Adam]

That's pretty rare though. He's not catching the ball three yards behind the line of scrimmage often. All right, My last note is on Khalil Shakir. Khalil Shakir, you know, had this breakout year. 76 catches, 821 yards, four touchdowns on 100 targets in 15 games. He was wide receiver 37 per game in full PPR, 44th per game and half PPR, 50th per game in non PPR. And I looked at his ADP in the fan mock drafts. Wide receiver 39. So I can't really argue with that. There's an obvious, you know, upside case. He has to catch more touchdowns and Maybe he could four touchdowns on 100 targets. But I just really like, I wonder Khalil Shakir, like being drafted around the same time as Roma Dunes A and who else? Let's see real quick. Juwan Jennings, Jalen Waddle, Ricky Piersoll, Jaden Reed. Does he have any upside? Could he really be a, a big contributor to a fantasy championship team? Khalil Shakir? I'm a little skeptical of it. I don't see myself drafting a lot of Shakira.

[Jamie]

I think He's a good fourth receiver. Like he's just outside the 20 to 40 range for me. I would definitely take Jennings over him. He's comparable to some of these other guys just based on what we've seen either last year or the last couple of years. But I think the again, you know, tying it into. We spoke about Keon Coleman recently. Like Coleman, if he hits, probably has more upside, you know, just based on what his, you know, potential could be. The thing about Shakir is like they didn't really bring in a lot of significant competition, at least for me. You know, I mean Josh Palmer and Elijah Moore, we know these guys have, you know, been good at times but not great. And Shakira, they just made a huge investment in, you know, by paying him this off season. So I think he's going to be one of these guys that's a, you know, reliable safe target for Josh Allen. I agree with you. I think the touchdowns have to go up maybe double to be a consistent starter in fantasy. But you know, he'll be in that number three receiver mix. He certainly is a good guy to have on your team. You know, he'll have some, some weeks where, you know, if he's getting those, those targets, you'll feel comfortable starting him. But huge difference maker. I don't know if he profiles like that with what he's shown so far. I mean there's again just a good type of 4 fantasy option to have on your roster. I'm sure Jacob would disagree with me because I know Jake was very high on him but I mean he was one of my favorite sleepers last year and I think he gave you kind of what you would expect. You know, good solid production, just not league winning production.

[Heath]

So he missed two games and still had a 21 target share on throws from Josh Allen. So the path to Khalil Shiki or being a true difference maker is that Josh Allen threw 483 passes last year. He threw 579 the year before that.

[Adam]

Yeah. But he missed one game. So let's, let's have like five, 10.

[Heath]

Didn't he, didn't he do something to keep some street? Yeah, so. But still like they could throw, they throw two more passes a game, three more passes a game. Then Shakir is probably a top 30 wide receiver.

[Adam]

Yeah. Actually one of the biggest takeaways I had from writing the Bills outlooks is that since Joe Brady took over, they've been a very run heavy team. One of the more rare. Yeah.

[Heath]

And slow. And slow. It ran 10, 25 plays last year. It was like 40 fewer than league average.

[Adam]

Oh, wow. Yeah, they were second fewest plays in football. I believe. Right. Yeah. The 5 fewer than the year before. All right, I just want to bring that up on Khalil Shkir. What I do like about Shakir, he catches everything. And he's actually, I think probably a pretty underrated player. He does a lot after the catch. He's kind of like a worse version of Rashi Rice, but not as many targets. But he catches everything and he can do stuff after the catch. All right, just some comments here from the chat about my take on books. Adam is 100% right on this. That was probably a tough one for Mike D To say. Classic Adam. Adam in fifth grade. And now for my report on Superman, volume 32, Adam's School for Kids who Can't Read Good. Yes, Library ruined my life, Adam, probably that's a quote attributed to me. So there you go. And then we got one that says, I tried to do a book report on Stephen King's it in fourth grade and my dad was legitimately concerned. That's good for you. I bet you, I bet you loved, you know, reading books after that.

[Heath]

That's, that's a long one. I think I read that in sixth grade and it was like one of the longest books I ever read.

[Adam]

That book is so long that it was two. It was a two part made for TV movie with John Ritter. That's how I know Stephen King's it. No paperback for me. All right folks, thanks so much for listening to me ramble. And we got NFC outlooks tomorrow and luckily for you, I didn't do any NFC teams. So I'm just gonna let Dave, Jamie and he'd speak. We'll talk to you tomorrow on Fantasy Football.

[Jamie]

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