Player Outlooks (NFC)! What to Know About James Conner, Jauan Jennings, Malik Nabers and More (06/03 Fantasy Football Podcast)

Summary

Fantasy Football Today: Episode Summary - Player Outlooks (NFC)! What to Know About James Conner, Juwan Jennings, Malik Nabers and More

Released on June 3, 2025

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Introduction

In this episode of Fantasy Football Today, host Adam Aizer and analysts Dave Richard, Jamey Eisenberg, and Heath Cummings dive deep into the player outlooks for key NFC players. They analyze performance trends, potential breakout candidates, and provide strategic insights to help fantasy managers dominate their leagues. The discussion is enriched with statistics, personal anecdotes, and expert opinions, making it a must-listen for fantasy football enthusiasts.

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Player Outlooks

1. Tight End John Smith – Miami Dolphins

Adam Aizer initiates the discussion by highlighting John Smith's impressive performance metrics. Smith led all tight ends in targets behind the line of scrimmage, recording 12 targets in this category, surpassing peers like Brock Bowers (11) and Trey McBride (10) (06:41). Aizer emphasizes Smith's reliability, stating, "John Smith may have set a record for tight ends in targets at or behind the line of scrimmage over the past decade."

Heath Cummings adds, "It's only my job to know these things, like bring them to light, not make up bs," reinforcing the importance of Smith's consistent usage in the Dolphins' offense. The panel discusses the potential for Smith to become a cornerstone in fantasy tight end rankings, given his ability to convert easy catches into valuable yards after the catch (YAC).

2. Running Back James Conner – Arizona Cardinals

The conversation shifts to James Conner, where Heath Cummings addresses concerns about Conner's aging status and efficiency. "He's an average fantasy contributor with at least 15 PPR points per game, but his role is consistent," says Cummings (33:52). Adam counters by highlighting Conner's resilience, noting slight declines in certain stats but overall maintained performance levels.

Dave Richard provides a statistical perspective, mentioning that since 2022, the Cardinals' offense maintains a 46.3% success rate with Conner on the field, compared to a 39.4% without him (10:30). This underscores Conner's pivotal role in the Cardinals' offensive efficiency. The panel generally agrees that despite age-related concerns, Conner remains a valuable asset for fantasy managers, especially when paired with reliable offensive schemes.

3. Running Back Rashad White – Chicago Bears

Rashad White's role in the Bears' backfield is another focal point. Jamie Eisenberg underscores White's versatility, citing his 50+ receptions every year, including last season where he averaged a career-high 4.3 yards per carry and scored nine touchdowns (19:56). However, Heath expresses concerns about White primarily serving as a pass protector, which might limit his fantasy upside: "If he's being used as a pass protector first and foremost, he might only catch a couple of passes a game."

Dan Schneier offers a balanced view, suggesting that White could be a high-end handcuff due to the Bears' strong offensive line and overall offensive scheme. The analysts agree that while White may not be a primary fantasy starter, his dual-threat capability as both a runner and receiver provides valuable depth for fantasy rosters.

4. Wide Receivers Juwan Jennings vs. Ricky Pearsall – San Francisco 49ers

A significant portion of the episode is dedicated to comparing Juwan Jennings and Ricky Pearsall of the 49ers. Juwan Jennings is praised for his physicality and route-running skills, with Heath noting, "His contested catch rate was seventh best among qualifying receivers last year, at 62.5% on 32 contested catches" (46:07). Adam adds, "There's reliability there with Juwan Jennings," highlighting his steady target volume and role in the 49ers' offense.

Conversely, Ricky Pearsall is discussed in terms of potential explosiveness and versatility. Dan Schneier expresses reservations, stating, "I find Jennings to be more reliable due to his familiarity with the offense and consistent target rates." Jamie Eisenberg, however, argues for Pearsall's upside, especially if he can outperform Jennings through improved route-running and physical play.

The consensus is that Jennings offers more immediate reliability, while Pearsall presents a higher-risk, higher-reward scenario. Fantasy managers are encouraged to evaluate their team needs and draft strategies when considering these two receivers.

5. Wide Receiver Malik Nabers – Jacksonville Jaguars

Malik Nabers' integration with the new quarterback, Russell Wilson, is explored extensively. Dave Richard posits that Nabers could significantly benefit from Wilson's improved deep-ball accuracy, noting that Wilson completed 54% of his passes of 20+ air yards in 2024, leading to enhanced opportunities for Nabers (56:22). Adam Aizer remarks, "It's night and day watching the tape compared to last year with Daniel Jones."

However, concerns are raised about the Jaguars' overall offensive consistency and how it might impact Nabers' fantasy production. The panel concludes that while Nabers has the potential to be a top fantasy option due to his improved quarterback play and offensive environment, variability in game scripts could affect his weekly performance.

6. Running Back Brian Robinson Jr. – Washington Commanders

Brian Robinson Jr.'s fantasy viability is a point of contention. Heath Cummings describes Robinson as "a solid flex RB2" capable of producing significant points under favorable circumstances (63:18). However, Dan Schneier warns of potential limitations due to Robinson's limited snap percentage (43%) and low target volume (1.8 per game).

Jamie Eisenberg emphasizes the dependency on Washington's offensive efficiency and potential injuries, noting that any drop in performance could render Robinson borderline unplayable. The analysts debate whether Robinson's upside justifies his draft position, with some viewing him as a risky but rewarding pick, while others see him as a potential bust similar to past running backs like Gus Edwards.

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News and Notes

• Stefan Diggs & Frank Ragnow: According to Ian Rapoport and confirmed by Adam, the Patriots have no plans to release star wide receiver Stefan Diggs, as he made an appearance at OTAs. In contrast, Detroit center Frank Ragnow has retired, raising concerns about the Lions' offensive line depth. Heath Cummings highlights Ragnow's impact: "One of your offensive linemen that's like All-Pro status, he's that good."

• Offensive Line Changes: The panel discusses the implications of Ragnow's retirement on the Lions' offensive line. Dave Richard mentions, "Since 2022, the Lions' offense with Ragnow on the field had a 46.3% success rate," indicating his critical role. They also touch upon the potential of new signings like Tate Ratledge to fill the void.

• 49ers Offensive Updates: The shift in quarterback play for the 49ers, with Russell Wilson taking over, is analyzed for its impact on wide receivers like Juwan Jennings and Ricky Pearsall. The efficiency and style of Wilson's play are expected to influence the target distribution among the receivers.

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Conclusion

Adam Aizer and his team provide a comprehensive analysis of several NFC players, offering valuable insights into their fantasy potential. From the reliability of tight end John Smith to the nuanced discussions around running backs like James Conner and Rashad White, and the dynamic wide receiver scenarios with Juwan Jennings and Ricky Pearsall, the episode equips fantasy managers with the knowledge to make informed decisions during drafts and throughout the season.

Notably, the discussions highlight the importance of understanding player roles, offensive schemes, and underlying statistics to gauge fantasy value accurately. The panel's balanced perspectives, incorporating both optimistic and cautionary viewpoints, ensure that listeners receive a well-rounded understanding of each player's potential impact.

For fantasy football enthusiasts looking to gain an edge, this episode of Fantasy Football Today serves as an essential resource, blending expert analysis with actionable advice to help secure those coveted bragging rights in their leagues.

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Notable Quotes:

• Adam Aizer [07:46]: "Sometimes we say things that are just sort of, you know, off the cuff, not necessarily thoroughly researched."

• Heath Cummings [08:31]: "I watched a ton of his snaps. Snaps. I know how he was using that offense and he was really good after the catch."

• Dan Schneier [11:36]: "Since 2022, the Lions' offense with Ragnow on the field had a 46.3% success rate, which was third best in the NFL."

• Jamie Eisenberg [19:56]: "What a role will he still have and will it still be as a role as a pass catcher? Will he be able to step in clearly if there's an injury to Bucky Irving?"

• Dave Richard [07:30]: "Great."

• Heath Cummings [14:12]: "All right, let's go with the apology."

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Note: Timestamps correspond to the transcript segments provided and are indicative of where key points were discussed.

Transcript

[Adam]

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[Dave]

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[Jamie]

What a play.

[Adam]

Can you believe this?

[Jamie]

No, I can't.

[Dave]

It's time to dominate your fantasy league.

[Adam]

This is gonna go the distance. Now here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie and Heath, you know it's gonna be a good show when the first segment in the notes is called an apology to Dave. Dave, are you ready to be apologized to?

[Heath]

I got a feeling this is gonna go very badly.

[Adam]

No, no, I owe you an apology.

[Jamie]

It's like a game of the week setup.

[Heath]

Yeah, yeah, yeah. There's gonna be some cheesy music being played, and I'm gonna feel like an idiot.

[Jamie]

Please.

[Heath]

All right, let's go with the apology.

[Adam]

Yeah, let me get. Let me get some music queued up. Jamie's here, and Dan Schneier is here with a funny background of. What year was that? 1992.

[Dan]

94. 94.

[Jamie]

I mean, the big banner that says 94 behind him doesn't give it away.

[Adam]

Oh, it does say 94. Doesn't is Meadowlands. Giant.

[Dan]

Giant Stadium. The good Giant Stadium.

[Jamie]

World.

[Adam]

It's a World cup banner. It's this World Cup. 90.

[Dan]

How old was I in 94? What are your guesses? 10.

[Adam]

No, I was 10. He was 6.

[Dan]

6, 5.

[Heath]

I was 33.

[Jamie]

And look the same. Amazing.

[Heath]

Yes.

[Adam]

All right, guys, Today we are doing player outlooks for the nfc, two for each division. We brought Dan on because Dan wrote up the NFC east outlooks. I don't know why he gave himself the NFC East. What an interesting division for him to choose. He did the NFC north, but he gave us. He's not on the show today. He gave us notes on DeAndre Swift and T.J. hawkinson. But let's start out with an apology.

[Jamie]

But before we start, Dan, Adam had to write outlooks for the first time.

[Dan]

Oh, yeah.

[Jamie]

How many texts and. Or phone calls combined that I'm gonna guess all of us. I know I got a lot.

[Adam]

A lot.

[Jamie]

Did he send and emails in regards to his outlooks.

[Dan]

A shockingly low number for Adam say purposes. Probably three. But one of them.

[Adam]

One.

[Dan]

But one of them was him asking me, which I was not happy. And I had a little bit of an. What did you ask me? Something that I wasn't unhappy about.

[Adam]

Oh, it was so.

[Heath]

It was so frustrating.

[Dan]

Was it again, this was like two weeks ago now, and I just went on a vacation. I think he asked me to, like, give him, like, all last year's. What was it? It was something crazy.

[Adam]

Something so reasonable.

[Dan]

No, it was not.

[Adam]

Responded with a really snotty rude.

[Dan]

It was not a snotty rude market. It was.

[Adam]

Can you. Can you get this? I'm reading it right now. Can you give me a list of players I'm writing up, please? That's what I asked you.

[Dan]

Yeah, give me a list of players writing A part of the job of writing these outlooks is grinding through the depth charts of lasting through. Remember every single player that was on the roster last year and every single player that will be on the roster this year. That is part of the outlook job. You don't just get to cut that off.

[Adam]

Okay. So. So I said, can you, can you give me a list of players I'm writing up, please? This is the first time I've ever done this. He goes, he writes.

[Dan]

Ever asked me that.

[Adam]

She writes back. Honestly, no. I. I have totally swapped trying to get bleep done before I leave for vacation. I have to write player outlooks, write articles for this.

[Dan]

I apologize for, for the snappy immediately. I immediately apologize.

[Adam]

No apologize for you.

[Dan]

You had to do that and I'm happy you did.

[Adam]

He Sorry. He sent me a text. Sorry about that last email. I'm super stressed. So anyway, okay, anyway, let's not get into that. Let's. Let's stay on your apology for Dave, please. You to Dave. So yesterday on the show, Dave was kind of poo pooing John Smith's yak because Heath brought up his that John Smith was really good after the catch. And Dave said, well, when you catch a lot of balls three yards behind the line of scrimmage, you know, it's easy to get yak on that. And then I said something like, come on, there's not that many catches three yards behind the line of scrimmage. So I decided to look it up. And John Smith led all tight ends in targets behind the line of scrimmage with 12. Brock Bowers did have 11 and Trey McBride did have 10. So that is part of the profile, I would say, of a good fantasy tight end is easy catches that you can turn into yak. But if we just look at that's three yards behind the line of scrimmage, he had 12 targets. John Smith. If we just look at anything at or behind the line of scrimmage, I think John Smith may have set a record for tight ends. I only went back like 10. I'm not joking. I only went back 10 years, so I could be totally wrong. But he had 33 targets, 33 targets at or behind the line of scrimmage and 25 catches. Both of those were the most among tight ends in the NFL. Similarly, David Najoku and Evan Ingram had a lot of those last year. They had 24 catches. John do had 25. Not last year. I'm sorry, 2023 for Ingram and Najoku. They had 24 catches on 30 and 27 targets respectively for Najoku and Ingram. Darren Waller also had a season like that. Those guys kind of struggled the following year. Maybe mostly just Ingram like. But I thought. Dave, I wanted to give you a shout out because John Smith actually was the most reliant of all tight ends on those types of targets.

[Heath]

Great.

[Adam]

I'm sorry.

[Heath]

I mean it's only my job to know these things, like bring them to light, not make up bs.

[Dan]

No, Adam is getting it right about in my outlooks.

[Heath]

Like this is only what I'm supposed to be doing.

[Adam]

But did you know what I've been.

[Heath]

Doing for the last.

[Dan]

Get him, Dave.

[Adam]

No, get him. Sometimes we say things that are just sort of, you know, off the cuff, not necessarily thoroughly researched.

[Heath]

Me? Never. No way. I don't ever do that.

[Adam]

Well, anyway, I thought it was impressive and there's no way that you knew that he led all tight ends and targets at or behind the line of script.

[Heath]

I watched a ton of his snaps. Snaps. I know how he was using that offense and he was really good after the catch. Like I think he's point about yards after catch per reception is a good one. I just really freaking hope that the Dolphins like matriculate the ball downfield via the forward pass this year because otherwise it's such a lame offense. Yeah, it was so lame if they just keep doing trade him.

[Jamie]

Yeah, I.

[Adam]

Not for him.

[Dan]

I want to think that they're going to get back to the 2023 version, but I'm like, well, Taron Armstead is now not playing this year. They have no solution at left tackle. What's going to stop last year from happening again on the offensive line at least. I mean they improved the guard a little bit, but I don't know. Yeah, definitely concerned.

[Heath]

Well, the love for Patrick Paul, are.

[Dan]

You going to Adam, are you going to spare the audience story of your 112 batting average?

[Adam]

I got my first softball hit last night. It went first hit and it went about 20ft.

[Jamie]

It was it again.

[Adam]

No, I hit it off the end of the bat. I was running so I didn't see what happened, but I think they thought it was going to roll foul and it never did. And I got a hit. I reached base twice. Run and fielded well.

[Dan]

Need to retire from softball and put all your energy into tennis.

[Adam]

Right now on the website cbsports.com fantasy football we have sleepers and breakouts and busts from Dave. You can also find those from Jamie and Heath, but they are being featured. Dave's are featured. Right now we have updated Dynasty rankings. We've got Dan Schneier writing about mid round steals, but I think that was from a podcast. But we've got a mock draft recap. We've got some props. We got some great stuff here. Loveland versus Warren debate. So check it out. CBSSports.com fantasy football we can't cover everything on the podcast, so you got to supplement it with the written content. Or maybe you are someone who already reads it and you're supplementing that with the podcast. That's the way to go. All right. News and notes the Patriots have no plans to release Stefan Diggs according to Ian Rapoport. And Diggs did show up for OTAs, so hopefully they're on the men there. Detroit center Frank Ragnow retired and Is this a big deal to you guys? Dave, is this a big deal to you? Frank Ragnow retiring Listen, anytime you lose.

[Heath]

One of your offensive linemen that's like all pro status, he's that good. It's a problem replacing him. The replacement won't be as good, but the Lions have found a way to to cultivate at least solid O linemen and they've got some options on their bench that they can use. I think last now could be somebody that could step in. I'll have to look into it a little bit further. Is it like, am I running away from Jameer Gibbs as one of my favorite running backs in fantasy? No. Do I think that David Montgomery is a bad pick now? No. But I bet it like two or three times this season. There's an a gap blitz where Jared Goff gets mauled because Ragnow isn't there. That's probably going to be the extent of it.

[Dan]

Can I throw some stats into the win? This is courtesy of Nate Tice. I saw this yesterday. Had to bookmark it. Since 2022, the Lions offense with Ragnow on the field 46.3 success rate, third best in the NFL 0.10 EPA per play, best in the NFL without ragno on the field 39.4, 23rd in the NFL success rate and 0.1 12th in EPA per play.

[Adam]

Since when? Since when?

[Dan]

I'm sorry, since when? Since 2022, including the 2022 season.

[Adam]

And he's been on the field for almost all of it.

[Dan]

I mean, not all of it, clearly.

[Adam]

No, but that's such a small sample. They in one game against but it's.

[Dan]

Kind of like the the Lane Johnson stuff, right? He's been on the field.

[Jamie]

But this, this is like, you know, when you look at offensive line grades and things of that nature, like who was around him.

[Adam]

Yeah, well, let's see. They've lost Jonah Jackson now and Frank Rag now over the last two seasons. They played one game without Rag now last year and scored 42 points.

[Heath]

And they just drafted Tate Ratledge, who was Georgia's center. Like, that dude might be able to fit right in. It was coming.

[Jamie]

There was a quote circulating yesterday from Brad Holmes that after the news came out saying where he was, like, yeah, we're gonna give Frank all the time he needs to make whatever decision he wants to make. And I think people were thinking it was maybe injury related, that he was going to have some sort of surgery. So it sounds like they were preparing for this.

[Adam]

Yeah.

[Dan]

Yeah.

[Adam]

Okay.

[Dan]

I mean, he was number one in run blocking in each of the last two seasons and number two and number one in pass blocking.

[Jamie]

Look, it's, it's, it's, it's a loss to Dave's point. You know, there's going to be some situations, you know, and I'm sure some stories about they couldn't run the ball in, you know, X game or, you know, golf was taking a beating in, in certain game. How much of the offensive line, which has been such a strength for this team is now changed or worse or whatever the case may be. But also to Dave's point, you know, this is a team that has done such a great job of building up this line and this, you know, regime has focused on it so much and I'm curious to see, like, how the jets are going to do it, you know, and now the Bears are going to do it. You know, clearly that's been the path of, you know, two of their assistants who have left and, you know, following hopefully a similar blueprint. It's, it's what every team should be doing, clearly, you know, and offensive line play is so important as we know. So I would, I would hope that it's not a significant fall off. But if you are deciding, let's say, between Gibbs and Bijan and Barkley, you know, depending on how your draft goes at the top, or Montgomery or Connor or, you know, one of the rookie running backs, it is something that you should take into consideration if you're, you know, pros and cons versus these players. And again, going back to what we talked about yesterday, we're going to talk about today. This is why we're having these conversations about these player outlooks now. You know to give you these early opportunities and the stories that you're going to see on the side. I appreciate that I'm not mentioning mine, so thank you.

[Adam]

But they were invisible. Blame Dan.

[Jamie]

That's because Dan, it was on vacation. So, you know, get an idea in your head of, you know, these, these type of scenarios and you'll know going into your draft when the clock is ticking down what you should be doing.

[Heath]

I have a great idea. I can look up how both Gibbs and Montgomery did running to either side of the center last year. Like two minutes.

[Adam]

I'm actually looking up right now up the middle. Just there's an option left, right, middle. And Jameer Gibbs averaged 6.8 yards per carry on runs up the middle. David Montgomery, 4.5. Because my initial reaction was like, this probably would hurt Montgomery more than Gibbs. Gibbs had more carries than Montgomery up the middle. Now I. Gibbs, you know, had those last three games without Montgomery, but 6.8 yards per carry on runs up the middle for, for Jameer Gibbs, 4.5 for Montgomery. That stands out. But I think we've exhausted this topic. We'll come back to it. Dave. When at the end of the news.

[Heath]

We're coming back to it. Never.

[Adam]

Okay, fine. Jaguars head coach Liam Cohen said the Jaguars do not want to part ways with Travis etn. There would been some talk about that. Kyle Pitts has an undisclosed injury. John Smith again wants to stay in Miami, according to his agent. What's the name, Dan? What's the name of the wide receiver that the Dolphins have that used to be on the Chiefs? Yeah, Tyreek. Okay, we just have to say it every show. Thank you.

[Jamie]

We have a streak going. Dan of Tyree Kill conversation.

[Dan]

Well, now we've kept it going.

[Adam]

Washington offensive coordinator Cliff Kingsbury. He praised Brian Robinson Jr. We're going to talk about him shortly. And he expects a big jump from Jaden Daniels. RJ Harvey is being used a lot in the passing game according to the Athletics Nick Cosmeter right now during OTAs. And here's a crazy stat. Watch this. We're going to throw it up on the screen here if you're watching. If you're not watching, you can look YouTube.com fantasy football today. Okay. Do you know who is second in NFL history? You're about to know in receiving yards after turning 40 years old. Jerry Rice has 2,169 yards. Second on the list is a guy who has six receiving yards after age 40. It's Tom Brady, who caught one pass this year. Mercedes Lewis might play again. If Aaron Rodgers plays and if he does, he says it's going to be his last year. If he does. He could pass Tom Brady for the second most receiving yards in NFL history after age 40. Lewis just had his age 40 season and he had two receiving yards. So he needs to get five to pass Brady to get up to seven receiving yards. But this is a list that you never thought you'd see.

[Dan]

I never thought I'd see this. Are any of our vets close? Hopkins? Any of them? I don't think any of them are close. Right.

[Jamie]

I just did a player outlook. The last team that I did, which was I won't tell you, but the last team that I did and There was a 40 year old in the NFL last year that is not on a team currently but would not surprise me if he signs with the team.

[Adam]

A receiver, a player, could he catch a pass?

[Jamie]

I mean, obviously he could.

[Adam]

Not if he's an offensive lineman. Really? Well, I guess he could. All right. Anyway, let's take a break, come back with some player outlooks. Talk about Rashad White when we come back on Fantasy Football today. Hey everyone, I want to talk about something really important. Life insurance and ethos.com FFT is the place to go to get affordable life insurance. When I became a father, it made me pause and think if something happened to me, would my family be okay? Would they be financially prepared to handle everything from mortgage payments to everyday bills? This weighed on me. I need affordable life insurance and you can get that through Ethos. And I love that. Ethos makes it simple. No medical exam required. You just answer a few health questions online. I got an instant rate and it took less than 10 minutes to get my free quote. It's all 100% online and you can even get same day coverage. Life insurance helps provide that financial cushion so your family can keep up with mortgage payments, college tuition, whatever life throws at them. And with Ethos, it's way more affordable than I thought. Some policies start at just $2 a day. Build monthly Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get your free [e-mail] FFT that's E H O S.com FFT okay, let's talk.

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[Adam]

I think that I call a lot of players interesting. I think Rashad White White really qualifies there. Jamie, tell me what you unearthed about Rashad White in this process. What do you want to talk about here?

[Jamie]

So last year was obviously a frustrating season for Rashad White when it comes to how the year ended and what Bucky Irving was able to accomplish and looking the future of the backfield there for the Bucks. And I would anticipate him being the future of the backfield for 2025, but he has had Rashad White 50 plus receptions in every year of his career, including last year. Last season he had he averaged a career high. This is, this was just for Adam, career high 4.3 yards per carry.

[Adam]

He did.

[Jamie]

And he scored nine total touchdowns for the second time, I think second year in a row, but second time in his career. And so for an offense that we very much like, I, I don't want to speak for everybody, but I know I like the Bucks offense. A lot of, you know, key parts are certainly going to be relevant for fantasy managers, whether it's, you know, the the must start guys of Bucky and Baker and Evans and potentially Godwin to Jalen McMillan and Jalen McMillan and Abuka and maybe Kate Otten. But I think Rashad White, like you said, Adam, is very interesting because how much of a role will he still have and will it be still as a role as a pass catcher? Will he be able to, you know, step in clearly if there's an injury to Bucky Irving? We've talked about this a lot that the Bucks, while Irving was great last year, it was not necessarily in the workload that we anticipate or, excuse me, the workload that we like to see for some of these premier running backs, especially the guys that were taking in their first two or three rounds. He was still not, you know, playing the snapshare of, you know, a total workhorse type of guy. Because I think Rashad White is still relevant and you've heard some stories, at least read some stories of the Bucks this off season. Rashad White's in the contract year. He's still going to be a big piece of. Of what they do offensively. And I'm. I'm curious to see what his role is. I've taken him in a few drafts. His, his price tag is basically as. As cheap as you'll find for somebody that. I think him and Ramondre Stevenson are kind of in a similar spot. You know, guys that could still have relevant roles on their teams and still be, you know, decent, you know, fantasy options, especially if an injury does occur. Stevenson's in a much different category than. Than White from how they'll get it done. But in any event, can 50 receptions, we know that's a big number for PPR. Can he still, you know, be a relevant guy from a. From a touchdown perspective? And if you're looking at it on, on YouTube, it was six rushing touchdowns in 2023, six receiving touchdowns in 2024. That's a hard number to replicate. But if he can get to, you know, six plus touchdowns, which I think is. Is doable, he might be a weekly flex option, you know, especially in ppr. So not a bad, you know, probably fourth running back that you put on your team, but somebody that has, I still think, some lottery ticket upside.

[Heath]

What if his best quality is being capable as a pass protector for Baker Mayfield and that's what keeps him playing. That's not going to help us in fantasy. And that, I think that kind of help builds what the, the ugly floor could be for Rashad White because we saw his playing time dwindle late into the year and then even into the playoffs. These are the most precious games for Tampa Bay in the wild card round. He played 17 snaps against Washington game before week 18. Kind of a meaningless game. They needed to win it. They did. 17 snaps. That's it. 27. The week before, earlier in the year, he was playing like north of 40 snaps a game for Tampa. So I just. I wonder how much playing time Rashad White's gonna have and if he's really being used as a pass protector first and foremost. Maybe he catches a couple of passes a game, maybe he gets a couple of token carries a game, but he's not anywhere in the same class as Bucky as far as explosiveness and playmaking goes, I, I don't mind, I guess I don't mind the adp, but if I'm drafting Rashad White, I'm thinking a solid season for him is like 10 ppr points per game. And I don't. I'm not even sure if he can get to that.

[Dan]

I think he's a little bit different than your, than your traditional handcuff because he plays on a better offense with a better offensive line and he has that role in the passing game potentially. We don't know if that's for sure. Like you said, Dave, maybe that comes down to pass protection and other factors like if Bucky Irving can take that step forward. But I think we also know that Buggy Irving has never been a player, at least not at the collegiate level, who handled the massive workload there. So I think that plays a factor too. But I also kind of feel like looking at the Bucks last year, Sean Tucker might take snaps as well. He took snaps last year away from these two backs at times and had that role. So I think it's a little bit of a murky backfield. But I like the idea of buying into a good offense with a good offensive line as more of like a high end handcuff. I view him as.

[Adam]

Jamie, what do you make of the fact that I'm just going to read his targets in his last eight games? Rashad White, 113-281-02. And they only lost two of those games. So I think part of it was they were winning and running the ball a lot. I remember that with Baker Mayfield, he wasn't throwing as much and the game that he had eight targets was that Sunday night loss to Dallas. But they also lost to Washington in the playoffs and he had two targets. But again, 113-281-0 and two targets. I think that's eight games. Sorry if I miscounted. What do you make of that?

[Jamie]

I mean, again, you know, you're not drafting this guy to be a starter on your team. And you know, Dan I think nailed it with the more than a handcuff, you know, description because there's going to be games where you can potentially start him, you know, if, if the run is better from a, a target standpoint. And we'll see, you know, how, how Bucky Irving, you know, sort of rebounds. I don't think Sean Tucker is really something that you should be concerned about with either of these two guys. He, he's going to have somewhat of a role. But really aside from that one big game where we thought, okay, maybe this is the start of something. He didn't really do very much down the stretch because as you, you know, illustrating with, you know, Irving's touches and White, such as Tucker, really wasn't doing much at the end of the season anyway. But it's more along the lines of, like, he's in the category, at least for me, of Taize Spears and Zach Charbonnet and Jordan Mason, Isaac Randall, like, you know, there may be sometimes in bye weeks or injuries where you can start him and Hope for that 10 ppr point number. If there's an injury to, you know, those guys in front of them, White included, you know, with Bucky Irving, then I think White will be a must start running back across the board. And so again, you know, it's, it's how you're drafting, it's how you're building your team and what your expectations are like. This isn't the same Rashad White that we were looking at going last season where he was, you know, RB 22 through 28, you know, depending on where his ADP ended up. Like, this is a guy that's going to be like RB40 and the chance to, you know, be significant at some point during the season.

[Heath]

All right, so next up, number one, I think Tucker comes into play. If Bucky misses time, which means you don't have to really worry about Sean Tucker. Unless it's like a really deep league, maybe a dynasty league. You can take him with a late round flyer. Adam, are you interested in the targets for Bucky in his last eight games?

[Adam]

Sure.

[Heath]

I mean, I just think we should compare the 2 6, 31 2, 3, 4, 5 2. And in seven of those eight games, Bucky caught 100 of his targets.

[Adam]

Wow. Does that include the play?

[Heath]

I mean, I didn't do the math. There's smarter people listening that did the math. I think it's relatively close between Bucky and Rashad in terms of like overall targets, and it's because Rashad White had that one game with eight targets. Bucky can win in passing down situations as well. As long as they're willing to give up a blocker in the backfield and they send Buck Irving out on a route. Baker just knows he has to get the ball out fast in those situations and if he has to do that, that's where Bucky could come into play.

[Adam]

Okay, let's go to our next topic. Here it is. Drake London, Jamie, as we continue in the NFC South. And man, was he good with Michael Penix.

[Jamie]

Yeah, I mean this is easy one, you know, just kind of, you know, solidifying the fact that he didn't drop off by any stress with panics. Now part of that was Darnell Mooney missing a game and we know that his numbers popped in week 18. You know, he had a 40 point PPR game. As you see if you're again watching on YouTube, that, that big line at the end of his game log there is very impressive. We like to see that all the time. But you know, two of those three games were, were very good, you know, over 17 PPR points per game. Which really that week 17 game is, is the one you want to consider because Mooney did play in that game, got five targets and I got five catches in that game. It's just really, you know, looking at where Drake London is and, and I think he's kind of the bridge receiver, you know, because you look at the guys that are going to get drafted in front of him, I don't think he's going to go ahead of any of Jamar Chase, Justin Jefferson, CD Lamb, Malik Neighbors, Puka Nakua, Nico St Brown and AJ Brown. I might be missing somebody in there, but I think that group is kind of the, you know, first tier or tiers of wide receivers. And then it's kind of London into T. Higgins and Lad McConkey and, and JSN and Devonte Adams, that whole group group. So you know, we talked about this last year about the leap that London was expected to make and he made it, you know, third year breakout and you know, it was okay. Kirk Cousins, Zach Robinson, those guys coming in and how would he do? Well, he was great with, with Cousins and would there be a fall off if there was a change in quarterback? Well, clearly there was not and you know, I, I don't know where I said this to you Adam, but the Falcons offense in the three games that Pennock started, they averaged 32 points per game. So that's a really good starting point from a young quarterback stepping in and their numbers continuing to look good. Bijan Robinson was, was obviously awesome and I think you could see Penix was, was pretty good as well. So I'm sorry, London was pretty good as well. You know, Pennix had one big game in there. It was the week 18 game against Carolina. So I think London is entrenched as a second round pick. You could take him I think as early as, you know, 17, 18 overall, be really comfortable with it. You know, we talk a lot about, you know, picking at the back end around One, you can get two wide receivers. And I think he's in that conversation. You know, I don't know where you want to put running backs in between him. Derek Henry, Karen Williams, you know, those type of guys, depending on how your draft goes, the tight ends as well. But for me, you know, London is, is a top 10 wide receiver and, and I think kind of locked into that nine spot, 10th.

[Adam]

I think one guy you forgot was Brian Thomas Jr.

[Jamie]

I'm sorry, Brian Thomas.

[Adam]

So yeah, you have him 10th. Dave has London 10th, Heath has London 11th with T. Higgins ahead. So, so I don't, I do think that you nailed it. I mean, he's kind of an easy. Looks like one of the easier players to rank among his position, Drake London. But if we look at throwing the running backs in there, like you said, you know, do you guys go Kyron Williams or Drake London, for example?

[Jamie]

I take London personally, but you know, again, I think it probably depends on what you do in round one.

[Heath]

Depends on format.

[Dan]

I don't want to go too deep into this because I know we don't have that much time, but I don't find him to be as easy to rank as others. I think London has been a big name and has been a big popping player like we see in that Week 18 game, but he hasn't been a consistent fantasy force at all throughout his career yet. And I'm not sold he will be that in those. In that small sample size that we're banking on with Pennix, that included against defenses like the Giants who were the worst in the NFL at the end of the year with Dexter Lawrence and injured commanders who gave up 24 points and the Panthers who were not a good defense at all last year. I want to see Pennock over a full season and a full sample size to believe that that offense can move the way it needs to for London to be a consistent fantasy force that I. That's worth drafting just after the names that we mentioned because quite frankly, I would never take him over T. Higgins right now because I know T. Higgins is in an offense that's going to move the ball. I don't care if he's number two. He's proven that there are two players on that offense. So I kind of find London to be less of an easy eve out for me at least despite liking his talent because I'm not sold yet on the sample size or the offense.

[Jamie]

I think it's a fair point. The one thing I would say, and just in terms of sample size, like first two years of his career. Terrible, terrible quarterback play.

[Heath]

Yeah.

[Jamie]

And then finally gets competent quarterback play. And you're right. I mean, we don't know what Pennix will be. It was three games against very bad defenses. We don't know what Mooney will be again, you know, in, in conjunction with him, with London and how those, you know, guys will work together, what the tight end position is going to look like, whether Pitts will be there or not. You know, can he be a factor? As we, you know, have seen, probably not. But I think once he got better system, better quarterback, first round talent, top 10 talent, it all sort of meshed together, you know, so, like, that's why I would buy into it. And especially, you know, you see the target jump as well. Like everything sort of fell in line for what his expectations were coming into the league and now getting that type of, you know, support around him, I'd.

[Dan]

See that case for sure. I just think we're buying him at that point right now, to be frank with his adp.

[Jamie]

Yeah. I think with any of these guys, though, again, you know, Higgins, you're, you're expecting him to, you know, still be as successful. And I agree he will, you know, in, in his role as the second guy, you know, again, the, the, the, the guys behind him, you know, so I don't think he should go ahead of any of the guys I listed in front of him. That's just me personally. But yeah, you know, Higgins is a great. This no argument like Makaki. I can't take McConaughey over London. I can't take JSN over London. I can't take Adams over London. You know, any of these guys. Mike Evans over. Like, there's no chance for me.

[Dan]

Yeah, I get that.

[Adam]

Okay, let's go to Dave's player outlooks. He had the NFC west and he wants to talk about one of the players that keeps me up at night in terms of evaluation. I cannot shower. I can't, like, I can't do it with the 49ers. They're just, they just.

[Heath]

It.

[Adam]

There's so much to be sorted out and it feels so unpredictable. We're going to talk about Juan Jennings. That's the one. I just drives me crazy. But James Conner, James Connor's. I feel like kind of Simple Dave, right? Like he kind of is what he is. He just keeps getting a little bit older. But is that how you see it?

[Heath]

All he's done since arriving in Arizona is Average at least 15 PPR, 13 half PPR and 11 non PPR. Points per game per season. And he's averaged at least 15 plus touches per game for six straight seasons. 17 plus touches per game in his past three. I went to look at his efficiency to just see, all right, we know he's getting older. Where is he declining? Dude, he's. He's barely declining yards per carry. Adam, I know that's your favorite stat.

[Adam]

Stop.

[Heath]

That's one that, like, you could look at and say, all right, maybe there's something there. Because the average 5 yards per carry in 2023, that went down to 4.6 in 2024. But even like his rate of zero or negative rushing arts, it got better last year. His explosive play rate was on par from 2023. His avoided tackle rate was identical, 28.8% from what it was in 2023. I think he's still a good player. I think he's still going to get a lot of the work in that offense. He's probably going to be one of those guys that he's just going to continue to be good for fantasy until something really bad happens. And you could say, well, bad things happen to older running backs. And, you know, their. Their bodies just aren't the same. If you can predict that with consistency, you're going to win your league and you're going to win your drafts a lot of the time. I think Connor's built a little bit differently than your typical running back. I think he's proven it and he deserves the benefit of the doubt, especially since he's not one of these running backs that like. Like other running backs that have that type of track record. They're going in round two. He's not. He's going in, like, round four. And I love that value, especially if I don't go running back heavy early on.

[Adam]

I thought he was going later than that, but. Okay, would you.

[Heath]

So I would take them in round four. I don't have a problem.

[Adam]

The toughest thing for me is Connor versus the rookies. You know, where do you come out on that?

[Heath]

I. I think I like Connor better than everybody except Genti.

[Adam]

Right, Genti. I mean, I would take Harvey over Harvey, not Hampton.

[Jamie]

No.

[Adam]

Dan, how about you?

[Dan]

I'm thinking about that. I. I want to say that I would take Connor over Harvey and Hampton right now. I don't. I think Dave makes a good case. Like, there's not really, like the negative to Connor is just the injury profile and the age right now. Benson didn't really show last year. I like Trey Benson coming out in Florida State, but he didn't really show last year that he's gonna be pressing to take into, you know, dip strongly into that role this year. So what. And that offense in my mind with Petsing has proven that they can run the ball and they can design a run scheme. So I don't really see the negative outside the age and the injury. What is he now 30 years old? Yeah, I mean with the rookies you're get it's the unknown. They're younger, less of it, less of an injury, track record. But also the unknown comes from can they, will they have the same the role that we're expecting Connor to have and we know that he's gonna have that role. So I'll take Connor, both of them.

[Jamie]

The thing with Connor is, you know, go past last year, five of the previous six years or four of the previous five years, he missed at least three games.

[Dan]

Yeah.

[Jamie]

And so if you, if you take that into account and just think there's going to be some time that he misses because clearly it's not just those games. It's, you know, the ones that he gets hurt in that he doesn't finish as well or Azer stats it. Right.

[Adam]

Yeah, no, you're right. He left, he left two games early this year. He played fewer than 30 of the snaps in, in week six and 17.

[Jamie]

Yeah, when he's on the field, he's going to be amazing. And so is this the year that there's a big breakdown again? You know, Father Time is undefeated. We know that when running backs typically turn 30, I think we do have to shift the goalpost a little bit because of how, you know, things have changed, especially what we saw last year with Connor, with Henry, with Aaron Jones, you know, all these guys, 29 plus 30 plus that have, you know, coming off big seasons. But was that an outlier season or is that going to be the norm? And that's the question you have to ask yourself. So I like the fact that the Cardinals, despite that Trey Benson didn't show very much, did nothing to enhance their backfield at all, you know, at least nothing of significance. So they're going with the same cast of characters with the hope that Conor can do this, plus they gave him a contract extension the end of last year. So there, there's a lot to like about the situation. I wouldn't take him around for personally, but I, I do think yet once you get past like, you know, running back 15, 16, 17, he's, he's certainly in that conversation even with those guys. I mean you know, like Dave said, you know, his production would, would scream taking him in the same range as Joe Mixon and Ken Walker and, and those, those guys that we're still relatively excited about. And really there's just one year age difference between mixing and Connor. So, you know, might be splitting hairs there. But in any case, I do think you kind of factor in 13 plus games, you know, as opposed to 16 plus games for where just his career has been and then we'll kind of see where, you know, sort of things fall. But I, I do think there are a little bit more red flags with Connor compared at least some of those other guys.

[Dan]

One final note on Connor, I think as we get into draft season, the, the recency of just getting these rookies, he'll fall in drafts like he'll fall even further than round four. People are going to want to take Hampton, people are going to want to take Harvey and these young guys over him. Also, I think you can handcuff him cheaper than probably most of these backs. Like you can get Benson very last round of your draft. So if he is going to miss time, you at least have that handcuff on your bench cheap. So I think that's valuable too.

[Adam]

And he does not have to deal with a quarterback who steals carries near the goal line. True. Kyler Murray had one carry last year inside the five. Now that is super low. He's usually got five or six. But maybe that's part of the evolution of Kyler Murray. It was actually a pretty interesting stat. I don't know. It's not good for Kyler. But only one carry inside the five yard line. All right, let's take a break and talk about Juwan Jennings. Keeps me up at night. And we'll be right back on fft. Optimize your nutrition this year with Factor.

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[Adam]

I want to bring up two things. Juwan Jennings, we were talking about him before the show started and he ran a 47240 4.72 at the NFL combine. He was a seventh round pick. That's part of what keeps me up at night because I was, we were watching, I was just watching some of his catches. I'm like, man, he looks really slow. What did Juwan Jennings run? What was his 40 time? And then I went, what, 4.7? I had a flip out. Okay. But I did also. I keep talking about John who Smith. This is completely off topic. And I keep forgetting to mention that John who smith ran a faster 40 time than any tight end in this current rookie class.

[Dan]

Wow.

[Adam]

Yes. I don't think Arroyo ran. He may have beaten that if he did. But just keep that in mind. Jonathan Smith was a good athlete. Okay, Dave, Juwan Jennings, how do you feel about him? What's the stat?

[Jamie]

What was taekwond Thornton's 40 time?

[Adam]

You really want to know or is this just.

[Jamie]

Oh, no, it was fastest of the combine line here.

[Adam]

Oh, really? 4.72.

[Jamie]

What about John Ross?

[Adam]

Tyquan Thornton was 4.28, but yeah, I'm never one to overreact. Like the guy who runs the fastest 40, but the guy who runs the slowest 40. Sometimes it's Pukinakua, but sometimes it's. It's not good. Anywho, Dave, what do you want to tell us about Juwan Jennings?

[Heath]

Sometimes it's Juwan Jennings and when he gets an opportunity, he does well with it. Last year and we've mentioned this number before. 14.9 PPR points per game. Maybe I need to apologize because that number's a little bit misleading. He had 46.5 PPR points against the Rams. Then his next two biggest games were 28 PPR points, 25.1 PPR points. He had just one other game over 13.7 PPR points all year, and two with over 12.2 PPR points. All this despite having eight targets with seven or eight games rather than with seven or more targets. And five of those eight were 10 plus targets. So he had the opportunities that we really like the receiver to have, but he didn't necessarily come through outside of a couple of spike weeks over the course of the season. And that just. That brought me to the film. It's funny how we work, Adam, because it's not like I told you, hey, I'm gonna watch Juwan Jennings film. And you're like, oh, I'll do it too. We both did it on our own. And the ways that he won were with physicality. There were a couple plays against the Rams where coverage broke down. He was wide open. He's got some savviness to him. He knows how to get open and be an available target to Brock Purdy. That's going to help him. His contested catch rate was actually seventh best among qualifying receivers last year, 62.5 on 32 contested catches. Marvin Harrison could never do such a thing. Marvin Harrison Jr. Could never do such a thing. But it makes me a little bit nervous to. To go to target Juwan Jennings, let's put it that way. Could he be the number one receiver for the 49ers this year? Sure. But he's not the most explosive. He's going to win with size. He can win in the red zone. He did that certainly against the Rams and against some other teams. But the inconsistency that we saw where he was really feast or famine, that makes me want to go in a different direction at wide receiver. And recently I pulled Piersall ahead of Jennings because I think he can be just as boomer bust as Juwan Jennings was last year. But maybe he could actually match him in terms of targets and maybe even be a little bit more consistent because usually what happens is talent wins out when it comes to targets and opportunities. And if. If Piersol proves that, you know, the speedy as he can win contested catches too, the double moves his route running. It's better than Juwan Jennings route running. That could put him in a position to take targets away from Everybody in the 49ers offense. As long as he's healthy, I think Piersall is the better bet on draft day if I had to pick a 49ers wide receiver.

[Adam]

Sorry, I'll let the other guys talk. I just want to say I'm sitting here talking about how slow he is. I did think Juwan Jennings looked like a pretty good route runner. This guy knew how to get open. He obviously understands the offense. He was. He was a very reliable target. He caught almost 70% of his his of his targets and he ranked 20. Where are you Juwan Jennings 27th in among wide receivers and tight end. I think just wide receivers in no and tight ends in open score according to ESPN's analytics. So it he's not going to do a ton after the catch. I don't know he's gonna make a lot of big plays. But there is a reliability there with Juan James. I don't want to completely dump on him that he does things very well, but I think the talent disparity between him and Piersol is probably what's really tripping me up.

[Heath]

Right. And I wonder if as long as the opportunity presents itself, I know that there's a hamstring injury with Pierce. All right. Now as long as Pierso does show what he like, he was a first round pick and he had a good 40 time. So to me like the difference is clear. The better talent is Pierce. All it's going to take a lot of volume and more consistency from Juan Jennings to be the better fantasy receiver. And so if I'm trying to win my league, I want to take on upside. Pure salt to me is the easy receiver to take between the two.

[Adam]

Anybody else want to jump in here?

[Jamie]

Peircelle is definitely a better value. I think Jennings is going to be the better receiver this season just based on how much this team relies on him. He's also in a contract year, so I think that's going to matter for him as well. You know, they signed him to a two year deal two seasons ago and looking at how this offense is going to operate, you know, we've had this conversation many times what happens when Iuk is healthy and which of the three comes off the field field. And so is it because they don't run a lot of three receiver sets. So will they change potentially? I think they, you know, they sign guys like Luke Farrell for a reason because they like to be in, you know, 12 personnel and have extra blockers on the field and. And that's something I think that matters to them. So which of the three is not going to see as many opportunities and targets? It could easily be Jennings. It could be Iuk because he's not 100. It could be Pierce. All because he doesn't stay healthy and also is the most inexperienced of the three. I can see it going any which way possible. So if you're telling me right now I have the option in round, let's say six, to take one of the 49ers receivers, I'm taking Jennings. If you say I can take one of the 49ers receivers at cost, which I think is what we'll see how ADP settles because right now they're both amazing values and I just don't think that's going to stay the same for Jenks because of how people in the industry are going to hype him up. I'll take Pearsall at his cost because David's right. We don't know which of these guys is going to stand out above. The rest and pedigree and, and talent may favor Pearsall over Jennings, but this guy, when he gets a chance to make plays, two of those games, by the way, if not mistaken, with the, the high target volumes with Josh Dobbs, right? Not necessarily Brock, No.

[Adam]

He only played one game with Dobbs and he got ejected in the first half. He had 10 targets.

[Jamie]

The game where Dobbs came in and.

[Adam]

Had that, yeah, one drive, but one.

[Jamie]

Drive was what, five targets?

[Adam]

It was a lot. It was that shootout with the lions in week 17.

[Jamie]

I, I do think that based on how this team values him, like every story you read about Juwan Jennings is they should have paid him more, they should have given him a lengthier contract. He's kind of been this guy over the last couple of years. Like when someone has missed time, he's made a play or two and now he's getting a chance to sort of be featured. So this is one of those teams. You know, Dave said a couple times he finds a way to get open. He's a good route runner. This is, you know, Sean McVeigh, Shanahan, these. They put guys in just spots that they make plays. And it's not necessarily the star players all the time or the high draft pick guys all the time. It's guys that they rely on. And this is just one of those guys. And so I want as many shares of Juwan Jennings as I possibly can get, especially at where his value is right now. I also want as many shares of Ricky Piercel as I can get because again, it's A very ambiguous receiving core. So I do think there's going to be chances for both these guys to be significant playmakers. I would just take the chance on the veteran in this offense more so than the younger player. As much as I like Richard, I'm.

[Dan]

Definitely more along the lines of where Jamie's at, I think, because it's a combo of two things. One, what, what you said Adam, about. He just understands his role in the offense. When I watch this offense, what I see is a quarterback who is one of the best the NFL, throwing outbreaking passes. I think he understands the timing of outbreakers, which a lot of quarterbacks don't. He's talked about this. Brock Purdy, he talks about how he sees it really well. Those intermediate outbreakers, that's what Jennings runs. I'm not sold that Pierce all will run those. I'm not sure. I'm sure he can, but I'm not sold he will. And then the second thing is just the 21 and the 12 person that Jamie mentioned, if you have that personnel grouping on the field, which Shanahan needs to make his offense work, you want a receiver like Jennings on the field to block, you do not want a receiver like Pearsall out there to block on the, on the outside.

[Jamie]

And that's. That's a big part of it, too. It's. It's not just the, the personnel groupings. There's a pretty big piece coming back to this offense that's going to change a lot, and that's McCaffrey. And so a healthy McCaffrey could, you know, sort of throw a big wrench into all of these guys in a positive or negative way. You know, in a positive. Just opening things up, you know, and getting back to think what they were, you know, a year ago. How much, Adam, have we talked about the Yak was gone from this team?

[Adam]

Yeah, that's because they threw the ball. That's partially because they threw the ball down field. So.

[Jamie]

And they threw the ball downfield. And that I think will favor Pierce all more so than Jennings a little bit, just based on how he operates. So we could see the evolution of this. But I also think again, you know, you're looking at it. To me, the takeaway is you want pieces of this offense and, you know, if you're in Dave's camp, you want Pierce all first. Great. He may be the best guy you want. You want Jennings first, you know, which. Which is where Dan and I come out. I, I think that's the, you know, route you can go as well. And what have we seen in adp? Last time we talked about it, Ayuk was the one going first.

[Adam]

Oh right, exactly.

[Jamie]

People still, you know, waiting for him to come back and hoping and look, it may be the case. Hoping that he's still their best guy, which he could be. I mean we don't know if, if he has a strong recovery from the acl. He knows what Brock Purdy wants to do. He knows what Shannon wants to do. Again, that's why I kind of favor James a little bit because of just being a veteran. But Ayuk may end up being the best receiver by the end of the season when your fantasy team may want to start one of these guys. Remember, most of these guys are being drafted. I shouldn't say most. All three of these guys are being drafted as, as reserve receivers. You know, at best starter in a three receiver league or flex in a three receiver league. They're not being drafted as starters in two receiver leagues. And that's the best upside about it is if any of them hit, you have a pretty good player on your bench that could be successful.

[Heath]

The problem with taking Ayuk first and foremost is he could start the year on the PUP list. There's all sorts of reports about out of San Francisco saying that he could miss the first four games and then remember he didn't just have a clean ACL tear, he had an MCL tear as well. You just have to wait and see. But he's the one I'm actually least interested in drafting even at that ADP because he's behind both Jennings and Pearsall. You're going to see Jennings and Pearsall go within like 10 picks of each other other in every single draft you look at. So it just makes sense to kind of look at the two receivers. Figure out the one you like best. If you like Jennings better, prepare to take him even when Pearsall is on the board. But if you like Pearsall, you can have the, the radar go up as soon as Jennings is picked. You know, Pierce all is going to go soon after.

[Jamie]

I do think we'll see the ADP separate a little bit now with Pierce all coming into camp hurt and Jennings is definitely getting. Going to get more hyper.

[Adam]

Yeah, I think when you look at the 49ers the last six years, the most targets for any player on the 49ers is 121. What they typically do is they really spread their targets out kind of evenly but then get the most out of their targets. But it really feels like it could be one of those situations where, I mean, if I were going to just do a projection off the top of my head with everyone playing 17 games, I would put Jennings and Kittle somewhere in the 105 to 120 target range. I would put pure Saw somewhere in the 95 to 105 range. And I would put McCaffrey around 90 or something like that.

[Dan]

It's just yourselves probably closer to 80 to 105 for me. I think it's a much wider range just given the injury history.

[Adam]

Yeah. So. And the thing is they outperform their targets, but it's. It's not going to be a lot of targets. But you're. It's.

[Dan]

It's.

[Adam]

It's late round picks now. Last thing here and I. We've spent so A lot of time on this, but I just think it's so interesting because they hold the. They hold the keys to so much fantasy success. Let's say Ayuk misses the first four games and he comes back. Personally, I think. I think Iuk is a bigger threat to Jennings than Piersol. I don't know how it's gonna play out, but I just sort of get that sense, like IUK and Jennings are more similar than I. You can Pierce all. Does anybody really feel. I think so.

[Dan]

I think a healthy IU is way more explosive.

[Adam]

No, not. Yeah, no, not talent wise. I'm like big, big body, you know, kind of like more. Probably more outside. Even though they'll all play a little bit.

[Jamie]

The thing that. The thing that I always go back to is remember Iuke's rookie season when he was making all these plays and he comes back his second year and he was in the doghouse for such a long time.

[Adam]

Yeah.

[Jamie]

This is what my concern is with Pierce all to an extent is Shanahan favors these veteran guys that do their jobs. You know, again, going back to what we talked about, Najee Harris yesterday and how, you know he's going to be a. A pain in the ass because if he's a guy that just does his job as opposed to the explosiveness, what Hampton could be. So Jennings may not be that explosive. You may be more explosive. When he's healthy, Pierce all may be more explosive.

[Adam]

Yeah.

[Jamie]

But to Dan's point, like the blocking matters, the route running matters. When you know you're. You're. You know, these timing things that are so dependent on staying on schedule. And I think Peirsol can do those things. I'm confident that he's going to be able to pick these things up. But Jennings has done it in this offense year over year. Ayuk has done it in this offense now year over year. You know, Pearsall is going to have to outperform those guys and out veteran those guys. If you. If you get my dress, you know, like.

[Heath]

Right.

[Jamie]

And those are the things that could keep him off the field, even though again, he might be more explosive. So. So I know it's not like a doghouse thing, you know, so I don't know if that's the right.

[Adam]

Yeah, I get what you're saying.

[Dan]

It's a fit. And just to be clear, Pearson mostly played the slot at Florida, so it's. It's not a guarantee given his size. What?

[Adam]

Not last year? Like his lot rate and Jennings slot rate were very similar last year.

[Heath]

Yeah, he can line up anywhere.

[Dan]

I'm not saying he can't. I just don't think he offers the same in the run game as Jennings does.

[Adam]

Oh, yeah. No, I wouldn't. I wouldn't make that argument. No. All right, Dan, I think it's time for you to give us, give us some notes. You want to do Neighbors or Brian Robinson Jr. First?

[Dan]

You could throw Neighbors out there first and give that stat.

[Adam]

All right, let's go to Malik Neighbors and his fit with Russell Wilson. Malik Neighbors had the fourth most unrealized air yards in 2024. So give me a quick definition of unrealized air yards.

[Dan]

Yeah, unrealized air yards. He had 876. That just means air yards where he was open and the ball either didn't come his way or was off target.

[Adam]

And Russell Wilson was the most efficient deep ball passer in 2024, completing 54% of his passes of 20 plus air yards for 851 yards, eight touchdowns and two interceptions. So you're arguing the deep ball connection will be much better this year than it was last year for Malik Neighbors.

[Dan]

Yeah, night and day. I don't think it could be much worse watching the tape of what it was with Daniel Jones those first eight weeks. Jones was inaccurate. Jones didn't throw when Neighbors was open. And yet the Giants continued to design those routes and those opportunities for Neighbors both out of the slot and on the outside with double moves. This offensive design from league Neighbors, that's not going to change. That's how Dable designed the offense last year. It was successful. It worked. The quarterback just held back Neighbors at times the quarterback didn't. Against the Colts, somehow they got a miracle quarterback game. They're one of the second half of the season and Neighbors went off and was the best player in fantasy that week. So with the revive revival of his deep passing, something that wasn't there but was there for him at lsu, plus all the targets, I mean we're talking about somebody neighbors who average 8.2 fantasy points per game as a rookie. That was more than Justin Jefferson in his amazing rookie season who had 17.1 average. He had 58 of the Giants receiving touchdowns, 41 of their total yards, 37% of their team targets, 11.3 per game. I feel like he is A lock top 10 fantasy player based on this volume and based on the upgrade in the deep passing game and at quarterback and that, that, that's my case for him. I, I would never let him fall past even eight in drafts.

[Jamie]

I love everything you said except the offense worked well.

[Dan]

It worked for the quarterbacks they had.

[Jamie]

I mean like the Giants last year.

[Dan]

Nothing can work when Daniel Jones is your quarterback and Drew Locke is your quarterback. But like what Dable was able to do in the first eight games of the season or really before that Carolina game was generate some passing yardage through Malik and all of it was through Malik Neighbors.

[Adam]

Okay, so I, I here are a couple things that concern me with Neighbors. It's tough because I think we all can tell he's a truly special player. Yeah, I think I'm trying to look it up now but the stat you gave about Russell Wilson and his, his completion percentage on past attempts of 20 or more air yards. I think it's been pretty NFL. Yeah, but, but so much better last year than it was the year before and the year before that and the year before that. So it's not like he has a track record like, like I have him at 47. You had him at 54. There's probably just like a slight difference there. But the year before that he completed 32 of his passes. Oh, I, I think I know why. But the year before that, 36, 38, 34, 41. So he had one of his best years last year of his entire career on those passes. But he, I've seen like he throws pretty good deep ball. My concern is like he doesn't throw that much. Almost throughout his entire career he's been a low volume passer and I feel like the targets. 170 targets in 15 games for neighbors. I mean I feel like that could be 150 targets and 17 games from elite neighbors. It could be a. And he's only like Russell Wilson has produced a top 10 wide receiver per game twice in PPR in his entire career. And I think part of that is like there's just not that many catches because he usually throws like 31ish passes per game. I can't really find a reason for that. Obviously Pete Carroll liked to run the.

[Dan]

Ball, but I mean part of that was the team makeup. Right. Like the Steelers and the Seahawks, they were run first teams and they were competitive.

[Jamie]

I'm sorry, they're slow too. I mean like, you know, it's a lot of.

[Adam]

Yeah, but is Wilson going to come to the Giants and sling it around 35 times?

[Dan]

I don't think it's going to be the same kind of run first option for them here. Like I don't know if they're gonna be winning enough games to have that kind of game script.

[Adam]

How many, how many games is he even the quarterback for?

[Dan]

I also don't know that he's ever had a receiver anywhere near as good, including DK Metcalf and George Pickens as.

[Jamie]

Malik neighbors is what, what's the over under starts for Wilson?

[Dan]

I'm not the right guy to ask because I think the Giants are going to be more competitive than people realize this year.

[Heath]

There's an actual line for that, isn't there?

[Adam]

I'm gonna, I'm going like seven, I'm gonna go 12. And then if they go to Jameis Awesome Bonanza, they go to dart. That's.

[Jamie]

There's no way they're going to James games.

[Adam]

Right. Probably not.

[Dan]

Quarterback play.

[Jamie]

Unless it's the, the awful McCarthy situation. You know, rookie gets hurt early. And.

[Dan]

I'm not as sold though. Like I know some of these other situations, like the Pennix one we brought up earlier, like we saw three games of Michael Pennixton's bad defenses. Like he could easily not, he could easily hold back his wide receiver.

[Adam]

He's not going behind neighbor, he's not going behind London. I think it's like, like Nico Collins, Brian Thomas Jr. That kind of like.

[Jamie]

Yeah, well and it's also, you know, Genti and, and potentially Gibbs and you know, hn if you want to throw them up there as well. So it's, it's that conversation, you know, or Henry for a lot of people. I think the thing that, you know, you mentioned the win, like the schedule's tough.

[Dan]

Yeah, yeah.

[Adam]

Which could be good. Right? I mean that could mean they're gonna have to throw a lot. That's what I'm thinking it could be.

[Jamie]

But it's also, you know, he's facing some, some tough competition from a cornerback standpoint. From defensive back standpoint. How much is the offensive line going to hold up for. For Russ? Is the run game going to potentially be better? I, I don't have high expectations for them running the ball. You know, I think they're running backslab production fantasy wise, but running the ball, I don't think it's going to be very dominant. So you know, they, they may be in situations to your point, Adam, of Russell having to throw the ball more, but if they're losing games, at what point does it. Okay, hey, we're done with the 30 plus year old quarterback here. We're not turning to James Winston and now it's Jackson dart. And is he going to. Despite the fact that he's more accurate than Cam Ward. Are we gonna. I'm. That stupid video that made some, made some rounds. Did you see that, Adam?

[Dan]

Which one?

[Adam]

The Dart neighbors. The Dart.

[Dan]

No, the Dart Ward thing.

[Jamie]

Yeah, the rookie thing where they're doing plenty. Yeah, there's. Look, it could be, could be great for neighbors. I mean, it's not like the quarterbacks last year were anything to write home about and he still was very productive. So, so it's, it's, it's, you know, depending I think on how you, you feel about, you know, second year receiver, uncertain situation around him, you know. And then to your point, Adam, okay, Saint Brown, who's been tried and true for, you know, three years, basically Nico Collins has been very solid in two plus seasons with CJ Stroud, AJ Brown and we know what he, he's been able to accomplish. Brian Thomas Jr. You know, you can nitpick him as well. So neighbor's gonna be fascinating to see where he sort of settles from an ADP stand.

[Adam]

All right, last guy is Brian Robinson Jr. He scored the 18th most fantasy points. This is a stat from Dan. 18th most fantasy points in PPR. But he was on the field for just 43% of the snaps, which ranked what, 32nd among all running backs, Dan?

[Dan]

Correct.

[Adam]

And average just 1.8 targets per game. 47th among running backs. This is Brian Robinson Jr. Any kind of drop in Washington's offensive efficiency or red zone role for, for Robinson could make him borderline unplayable. Wow.

[Dan]

Yes. Yeah. I mean, famously I considered Zemir White unplayable and worth dropping in like week one last year. We had a big argument about that on the podcast, Adam. I prevailed. This is not the same situation. This is not the same situation. The offense in Washington is definitely a lot Better than the offense was in Vegas. But I do think that there is a non zero chance that no one seems to be considering that this Washington offense falls off just a little bit this year. Now that teams will have, you know, a full year of film on this Cliff Kingsbury offense, we saw a similar drop also. Kingsbury in Arizona hasn't happened yet. Jaden is probably a different tier level player than Kyler. So I don't want to say it's likely but it's definitely possible. And for Brian Robinson, he feel like his fantasy profile, his, his outlook is hanging onto a thread of those eight rushing touchdowns or those eight total touchdowns. Like there's not a lot of volume here. There's no role in the passing game and that run game I thought lost efficiency in the second half of the season. So ultimately yes, I like the player and I think that's why he's still being drafted where he is. But it feels like a lot of people are just kind of taking him in a spot where it's like ah, this is definitely going to be like a flex worthy player. And it's like well if he doesn't score a touchdown, what is he really offering on a week to week basis? He's not getting a lot of carries again and he's not getting a lot of targets.

[Adam]

I'll make you a little more optimistic about him. This is where we got to go. Azer stats.

[Dan]

Azer it up.

[Adam]

Both games against the Dallas Cowboys he left early with an injury and he or actually one of them was week 18. So he left early because they pulled their starters and he only had five carries in those two games. If you take those two games out, he was on pace for 251 carries. So if, if you take those, if you leave them in, he was on pace for 227 carries which is really low. But 251 is pretty respectable stat.

[Dan]

You back real quick. That was with good game script because they were leading a lot of games. The question is will they.

[Adam]

They also had some blowouts my friend which were bad game scripts.

[Dan]

Okay, is there stab me back?

[Adam]

You can't, you can't double stab a triple stamp. And yeah, so, so 251 carries isn't bad. I also like just to throw it out, he scored eight touchdowns. He was on pace for 10. Every running back over the last four years since we went to a 17 game season who has scored 10 or more touchdowns has finished at worst RB 26 overall in PPR. In full PPR. So obviously better in half or, yeah, well, like, because one of them was Gus Edwards. Gus Edwards was the worst example. This. That's what you really fear. No, seriously, that's what you fear that Brian Robinson could be. Is a better version of Gus Edwards. Because Gus Edwards was RB26 overall in 2023 with 10 touchdowns, but he was RB34 per game or something like that. And so I see the profile is scary. You're right, Dan. He's gonna. Brian Robinson's gonna need touchdowns, but he, he was more involved than Gus Edwards that season. But no, I totally get where you're coming from. He's a scary pick. See where he's. Where do you guys think he should go? Jamie?

[Jamie]

I don't think he's scary, though. Like, that's the one thing I would disagree with. Like, where he's going, he's perfectly fine.

[Adam]

It's going 105th on fantasy pros, so that's.

[Heath]

Yeah, he's going a lot earlier in our mocks.

[Adam]

Where's he going?

[Heath]

He's going ahead of Juwan Jennings and Ricky Pierce hall, which is ridiculous.

[Adam]

That's scary. So where would you guys take him?

[Jamie]

Like 80th in that range? You know, I, I think again, you're looking at. What is this backfield comprised of? They drafted a seventh round guy and you have an aging Austin Eckler who's not going to take carries away from him.

[Adam]

Yeah, I agree.

[Jamie]

So again, you know, to, to circle back to like he's. I would take him before Rashad White. Would you think there's more potential for me to help you?

[Adam]

You're obviously taking him ahead of like your favorite handcuffs, right? Like the Jordan Masons that you're getting a start.

[Jamie]

I mean, again, I, I don't want to draft Brian Robinson to be a starter for my team, but you know, there's going to be weeks where this is, this is going to be a really good offense and, and yes, the quarterback is going to run. We know that. And they added a running wide receiver and Debo Seymour is going to take some touches away, maybe some red zone touches away. But this is just one of these guys. Like, he's not, he's not a league winner, but flex RB2, depending how you build your team, you know, hero RB, zero RB. You know, he can certainly get you by for a few weeks and you go back. I think it was 2023 if I'm not mistaken. I don't know if it was last year. The games where Eckler missed his role in the passing game spiked it's true.

[Adam]

Yeah.

[Heath]

If you're a 0rb drafter, you can keep his name in mind because he opens the year against the Giants, Packers, Raiders, Falcons. I think the Giants might be the toughest matchup of those four.

[Adam]

Now, Packers, I'd have to say packers had a really good defense last year, but Dan thinks the Giants are going to the playoffs.

[Jamie]

So just competitive.

[Dan]

Just.

[Adam]

So I saw a comment.

[Dan]

I saw a comment type of competitive.

[Adam]

In the chat that I want to make sure we, you know, I don't want to feel like I made people feel this way. I'm trying to find. I'm sorry. I'm trying to find it. I can't find it. Said I'm. It said I'm staying away from all 49ers. I think that's a horrible idea. Don't stay away from a team that's almost guaranteed to have a great offense. And if I broke down the targets like I did and made you think, oh, well, none of them are going to be good, I. That's misleading on my part. So I apologize like they get away.

[Jamie]

For tomorrow's show where I'd like to apologize to myself.

[Adam]

No, if I apologize to the listeners and the viewers, if I gave you the idea that you should stay away from 49ers. And I will end the show with this juicy meatball. I am going to draft Christian McCaffrey third overall, and then everyone's going to talk about it on our next podcast, whenever that happens. So he is my number three overall player.

[Jamie]

What if you pick eighth?

[Adam]

I'll draft a mate. I'll draft him as early as third.

[Jamie]

So bring it on behind Chase and.

[Adam]

Bijan in some order. I probably Bijan first, probably. And then Chase and then.

[Jamie]

And then. How soon will you be drafting Garendo or you won't care?

[Adam]

No, I'll draft Garando round three.

[Dan]

You gotta get him.

[Adam]

Like you have to get him. Dad. It's good to have you back, buddy.

[Dan]

Good to be back. Glad to talk ball with you guys. It's always fun to be on here. And Adam, I hope you know that over my vacation, I played four sets of singles and three sets of doubles, which is more than I've played combined in the last probably two or three years. So you are in a lot of trouble when we get to the summer.

[Adam]

Yeah, I play that. You know, I play double that a week, basically.

[Dan]

I know. But I'm good at tennis. And you're bad.

[Adam]

Not bad. I'm not bad. I got a big match tonight. Big, big match. Tonight. I'll give you updates tomorrow, folks. All right? I want to hear about it. Thank you so much for watching and listening. We'll talk to you tomorrow on fantasy football.

[Dave]

Paramount podcasts the first season of CBS's.

[Heath]

New hit NCIS Origins. Better Relations is now stream.

[Jamie]

NIS.

[Dan]

The hell's that?

[Adam]

Naval Investigative Service.

[Dan]

We go where the evidence takes us.

[Heath]

We got this 88 fresh on rotten tomatoes.

[Dan]

You don't see folks trying to affect change, but here you are.

[Jamie]

Got a body waiting for us.

[Dan]

Gives welcome to the team.

[Heath]

NCIS Origin, Season one now streaming on Paramount Plus.