Players We're Worried About Being Wrong About (07/01 Fantasy Football Podcast)

Summary

Fantasy Football Today – Episode Summary: "Players We're Worried About Being Wrong About" (July 1, 2025)

Released on July 1, 2025

Introduction

In this episode of Fantasy Football Today, host Adam Aizer and analysts Dave Richard, Jamey Eisenberg, and Heath Cummings delve into critical aspects of fantasy football preparation. They focus on their fundraising efforts for St. Jude Children's Hospital, analyze player rankings with a spotlight on those they might be overvaluing or undervaluing, and discuss recent NFL news impacting fantasy prospects.

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1. Fundraising Efforts: Draft a Thon for St. Jude

Heath opens the episode by highlighting the significance of their ongoing "Draft a Thon," a two-month fundraising event aimed at raising over $100,000 for St. Jude Children's Hospital.

Heath [02:52]: "Pretty unbelievable. Here we are, we're in July and draft a thon begins today. This is our two-month march toward hopefully more than a hundred thousand dollars that we are going to raise for St. Jude Children's Hospital."

Adam details the logistics, emphasizing the collaborative nature of the event and the impact of donations.

Adam [02:55]: "August 22nd, I'll be back in Memphis for the second annual FFT. Saint Jude Year's draft will be a wild time … we're going to raise a bunch of money for the kids."

Heath underscores the transformative power of contributions, explaining how donations alleviate burdens for families dealing with pediatric cancer.

Heath [18:50]: "So St. Jude, they treat pediatric cancer patients. … you donate to St. Jude, you're helping not just the child, you're helping the entire family here. This is an amazing charity."

The team encourages listeners to participate by joining leagues, donating, or submitting mailbag questions to support the cause.

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2. Player Rankings Analysis: Concerns and Considerations

The core of the episode revolves around the analysts' rankings of various players and the uncertainties that might affect their performance in the upcoming fantasy season. The discussion is categorized by positions, addressing specific players of interest.

A. Wide Receivers

1. Jerry Jeudy

   Adam expresses reservations about Jerry Jeudy due to the evolving dynamics in Cleveland's offense.

   Adam [03:33]: "There's so many moving pieces there in Cleveland. … Judy has a track record of giving us a couple spectacular games and then a whole lot of not so inspiring stuff."

   He maintains a hopeful outlook but acknowledges the unpredictability surrounding Jeudy's consistency.

   Adam [04:20]: "If Jerry Jeudy and Joe Flacco play together for 17 games, Judy could be a top 12 wide receiver."

2. Brian Thomas Jr.

   Dave voices his concerns about Brian Thomas Jr., fearing that the addition of Travis Hunter might dilute his target share.

   Dave [04:39]: "I'm nervous that he's going to have to be a number one fantasy receiver on like seven and a half targets per game … I don't know if reliable is the right word."

   Heath counters by highlighting Jacksonville's improved passing offense, suggesting Thomas Jr. might maintain or even increase his target volume.

   Heath [07:07]: "Brian Thomas Jr. is going to lead the team in targets. … the Jaguars passing game is going to make up for the Travis Hunter issue by just being much, much better overall."

3. Jalen Waddle

   The trio discusses Jalen Waddle's fluctuating performances and his current ranking.

   Dave [12:00]: "His yards per route run rate was amazing. It was seventh in the NFL."

   Heath points out the change in Waddle's role following the trade of John O. Smith and questions his top 30 status.

   Dave [17:57]: "No. Round six."

4. Devante Adams

   Concerns about Devante Adams focus on his age and the quality of his new offensive environment with the Rams.

   Adam [31:20]: "He's a 32-year-old wide receiver … he has a very old quarterback."

   Dave defends Adams, emphasizing his consistent target volume and adaptability to the Rams' system.

   Dave [33:00]: "Wherever he goes, he earns a bunch of targets. … I think they are going to play a ton of zone and it's easy underneath throws."

5. Garrett Wilson & Xavier Worthy

   Garrett Wilson's potential hinges on the offensive synergy with quarterback Geno Smith, while Xavier Worthy's inconsistent workload raises red flags.

   Adam [37:52]: "He's … been dependent on volume … I'm worried you're too low on Garrett Wilson."

   Dave and Heath discuss Worthy's fluctuating targets and the Rams' offensive strategies impacting his reliability.

6. Tyreek Hill

   A heated debate emerges around Tyreek Hill's ranking, with Heath and Dave advocating for a higher placement due to his speed and role in the Dolphins' offense.

   Heath [60:32]: "Tyreek Hill is going to be great this year … he's a Tyreek Hill guy. He's wide receiver 10 right now."

   Adam acknowledges Hill's potential but remains cautious, citing concerns over injuries.

   Heath [64:38]: "I'm with new Adam, Tyreek is going to be great this year. That's it. I'm planning my flag."

B. Running Backs

1. Saquon Barkley

   Dave discusses historical trends of running backs who handle heavy workloads experiencing performance dips, expressing worry about Barkley's sustainability.

   Dave [24:23]: "There have been 25 running backs … 17 of them fell short and … got hurt or saw at least a 25 drop in their PPR game point per game average the following year."

   Despite Barkley defying some historical precedents, the analysts remain cautious.

   Adam [25:48]: "Barkley ... Just because he was able to do it at 28 … I think he's the types of backs with the talent to do that."

2. Ashton Gentry

   The conversation centers on Gentry's potential as a workhorse back with a high ceiling, balanced against the risk of him being a rookie unproven in the NFL.

   Heath [27:46]: "Ashton Genty ceiling is the best running back in fantasy football for five years … but I don't know that you can draft them too high."

   Adam confidently supports Gentry, citing his rare combination of workload and scoring ability.

   Adam [28:59]: "He's such a rare combination of a workhorse back … I don't believe reports that there's going to be some sort of committee in Las Vegas."

3. Chase Brown & Kyron Williams

   Dave expresses concerns about Chase Brown's potential decrease in workload due to competition within the Bengals' depth chart, while Kyron Williams' inconsistency and possible fumble issues with the Rams are scrutinized.

   Dave [47:42]: "He's going to have too many difficult matchups … his touchdown regression monster bites him."

   Heath and Dave debate Kyron Williams' future with the Rams, factoring in his performance and potential team strategies.

   Dave [50:32]: "I wonder if Kyron Williams is going to start coughing up the football early on in the year … are we going to see more of Jarquez, Hunter and maybe Blake Coram?"

C. Tight Ends

1. Mark Andrews

   The analysts discuss Mark Andrews' high ranking juxtaposed with concerns over his target share and age.

   Heath [43:14]: "Mark Andrews … has had a lot of targets … but Lamar and Derek Henry might run the ball 30 times a game."

   Dave defends Andrews, highlighting his consistent performance despite potential team dynamics changes.

   Dave [34:12]: "He’s ... perfect to fit into the Cooper cup role … I’m looking forward to drafting him in round three."

2. Basil Tootin

   Basil Tootin's emergence as a rookie tight end for the Jaguars is questioned, with doubts about his draft position based on the presence of other backfield options.

   Heath [45:04]: "Travis Etienne is a good pass-catching back … I just don’t think the argument … to draft him as high as they are."

D. Quarterbacks

1. Lamar Jackson

   Concerns about Lamar Jackson revolve around his age and inconsistent fantasy performance, despite his potential to be a top-tier quarterback.

   Heath [53:35]: "The floor is probably more like QB 5 or 6. I don't think he could be a QB 9 or 10."

   Dave highlights the variability in Jackson's performance, emphasizing the risk of injury and strategic usage by the Ravens.

   Dave [53:35]: "Lamar Jackson, he had over 30 fantasy points per game last year … could he be number one? Yeah, he could. But he could also be number eight or number nine."

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3. NFL News and Updates

The analysts touch upon recent NFL developments that could influence fantasy decisions:

• T.J. Watt Trade Rumors:

  Discussions about T.J. Watt's dissatisfaction with his contract and the Steelers' stance on trading him, as reported by Tom Pelissero.

  Adam [18:10]: "Teams are discussing whether or not they should trade or can trade for T.J. Watt … Tom Pelissero says the Steelers have no intention of trading for TJ Watt."

• Raiders and Washington Players:

  Updates on Michael Mayer and Terry McLaurin, indicating no progress in contract negotiations and the Raiders' disinterest in trading Mayer.

  Adam [18:10]: "Vincent Bonsignor … says, as Heath mentioned, … the Raiders have no interest in trading Michael Mayer and Washington and Terry McLaurin."

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4. Community Engagement and Upcoming Content

Heath promotes the podcast's "Summer School" series, offering in-depth analysis of teams, positions, and player rankings to assist listeners in their fantasy preparations.

Heath [35:56]: "Along with Tom Fenelli, Danny Cannell and Bud Elliott three times a week as we go through positional drafts, player rankings and more."

Additionally, Adam introduces their collaboration with the "First Pick" podcast network, providing exclusive draft analysis and NFL scouting insights for the upcoming 2026 NFL Draft.

Adam [67:31]: "Join hosts Ryan Wilson and Rand Karthon twice a week for the most insightful draft analysis out there."

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Conclusion

The episode offers a comprehensive analysis of player rankings, addressing potential overrated and underrated prospects across key positions. Coupled with their philanthropic efforts through the Draft a Thon, Fantasy Football Today provides both strategic insights and community-focused initiatives to engage and support their audience. Listeners are encouraged to participate in upcoming events, contribute to charitable causes, and stay informed through continued podcast offerings.

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Notable Quotes:

• Heath [02:52]: "Pretty unbelievable. … raise a bunch of money for the kids."
• Dave [04:39]: "I wonder if I'm overrating him and maybe if we're all over rating him …"
• Adam [17:57]: "No. Round six."
• Heath [60:24]: "Tyreek Hill is going to be great this year … he's wide receiver 10 right now."
• Dave [50:32]: "If Kyron Williams is going to start coughing up the football …"
• Heath [53:35]: "The floor is probably more like QB 5 or 6. I don't think he could be QB 9 or 10."

Timestamp References:

• Fundraising: [02:43] – [18:10]
• Player Analysis: [03:12] – [60:40]
• NFL Updates: [18:10] – [22:00]
• Community Engagement: [35:39] – [67:51]

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For more in-depth analysis and the latest fantasy football strategies, tune into subsequent episodes of Fantasy Football Today.

Transcript

[Adam]

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[Dave]

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[Heath]

I will not run out nis.

[Dave]

What the hell's that? Naval Investigative Service. We go where the evidence takes us.

[Adam]

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[Dave]

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[Adam]

This is Fantasy Football Today from CBS Sports.

[Dave]

What a play. Can you believe this? No, I can't.

[Adam]

It's time to dominate your fantasy league.

[Heath]

Off to the races and he stays at his feet. Chris is gonna go the distance.

[Adam]

Now here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie and Heath.

[Heath]

What's up everyone? Welcome to the show on Tuesday, July 1st. Yes, we are into the month of training. Just about three weeks. Training camps are opening up. Pretty unbelievable. Here we are, we're in July and draft a thon begins today. This is our two month march toward hopefully more than a hundred thousand dollars that we are going to raise for St. Jude Children's Hospital. It's going to be an amazing two months with all of your help. Tell you about that in a little bit. Now look, we are dug in on some guys, right? We're going to be drafting a lot of guys in our league, guys that we love and then they're going to be some guys that we don't really like that we're going to be Avoiding. But there are some players that, you know, we're worried that we're wrong about them, because if we're wrong about them, it's gonna be pretty bad for our fantasy team. So we'll talk about some of those players today. Happy draftathon, fellas. You guys ready to raise some money?

[Adam]

Yeah.

[Heath]

Yeah. This is the best thing we do, right? I mean, 100. It's amazing. Heath, you're gonna be. What do you mean? You're gonna be doing a live draft next month to raise money.

[Adam]

August 22nd, I'll be back in Memphis for the second annual FFT. Saint Jud Year's draft will be a wild time. I will be asked to do all types of embarrassing things, I'm certain. And we're going to raise a bunch of money for the kids.

[Heath]

And wait until you hear what we have planned for the FFT Open this year. Now, we. I. As I said, we will get to that in a little bit, but I want to talk about Jalen Waddle. So that's a really interesting player to me right now. First, let's get one player that you're worried about being wrong about. Heath. Sorry.

[Adam]

Yeah, I will say the player. It's probably the guy that I am most outlandishly ranked, and that would be Jerry Judy. Because I. I do still think that Jerry Judy's a good NFL wide receiver, and I think that Joe Flacco is great for NFL wide receivers. But there's.

[Dave]

There's.

[Adam]

There's so many moving pieces there in Cleveland. There's a lot of ways things could go wrong. And Judy has a track record of giving us a couple spectacular games and then a whole lot of not so inspiring stuff. So I. I think, like, I. I'm not backing down from the assertion that if Jerry Judy and Joe Flacco play together for 17 games, Judy could be a top 12 wide receiver. But I don't know how many games we're going to get with flag.

[Heath]

And where do you have Judy ranked?

[Adam]

I think he's 16th right now at wide receiver for me.

[Heath]

He's 26 for Jamie, 24th for Dave. And right now I see you have 17th. Sorry, I just looked up the ranking 17th in between Devonte Adams and DJ Moore. Okay, Dave, give me one player you're worried about being wrong about.

[Dave]

Really? Since the NFL Draft, I've had the heebie jeebies about Brian Thomas Jr. Let me. Let me put it to you guys this way. If he had averaged 13.3 PPR points per game and the Jaguars drafted Travis Hunter. They moved up in the draft to get Travis Hunter. No one in their right mind would think that Brian Thomas Jr. Could be in line for 15, 16 PPR points per game. They. No one would think that. But because he finished the way he finished last year, he went bonkers as the only reliable target in Jacksonville. Most of it, if not all of it with Mac Jones at quarterback. We're all kind of reacting to that a lot. And I, I feel like I can't disagree that Brian Thomas Jr. Is a bad talent. Dude's awesome. He's fast, he's tall, made all kinds of plays before and after the catch last year. We talked about this last week, but the addition of Travis Hunter is going to suck targets away from him. And we. Unless there is a massive funnel to just those two guys, I'm nervous that he's gonna have to be a number one fantasy receiver on like seven and a half targets per game. And so I, I've got him ranked like he's gonna get eight and a half or nine targets per game and he's going to be just fine and getting around 17 PPR points per game. I'm worried I'm too high and that with no guarantees that Trevor Lawrence is going to be great and with Travis Hunter there, and there's a pretty reliable chance here, I don't know if reliable is the right word, but pretty good chance that Travis Hunter is going to be a good wide receiver. I, I just, I wonder if I'm overrating him and maybe if we're all over rating him because of the weird circumstances he found himself in and benefited from last year.

[Adam]

I, I think the unique thing about Thomas in this conversation, and I'm just guessing my guy, Judy is my guy. I'm. I have him ranked a lot higher than consensus or Dave and Jamie. And so I'm nervous, worried because of that increased exposure. Thomas is someone that I think we all pretty much agree on. I was looking at the consensus rankings. We have him 14th, 15th and 15th overall. Everybody agreeing he's a high round two pick.

[Dave]

Yeah. I'm worried we're all over rating him if, If Dave's.

[Adam]

Dave's right in these worries. We're all too high on him.

[Heath]

Yeah. I'm gonna try to quell your fears here a little bit, Dave, because first of all, you mentioned what, 13.3 PPR fantasy points per game.

[Dave]

That was what he averaged from week one through week 11.

[Heath]

Right. And then he goes on this tear at the end of the year where Evan Ingrid, Christian Kirk was out for the year at that point. Evan Ingram missed a lot of that stretch and he ended up. Brian Thomas ended up averaging 16.5-PPR fantasy points per game. Good enough for wide receiver 14 per game as a rookie. And he goes for 1282 yards and 10 touchdowns on 133 targets. First of all, he already did that on 133 targets. Right. So even if he doesn't have the target jump that you're looking for, he could probably get more than 133 or be at around 133. But you're right. I mean, if he's going to be a top 15 pick, we are hoping for 150 or more targets from him. But the, the argument I will keep on making for Brian Thomas Jr. Is that Jacksonville's pass offense was one of the worst in the NFL last year. They were 24th in gross passing yards per game. Only two teams threw fewer touchdown passes than the Jaguars. That would be the Giants and the Patriots. Interestingly enough, the Browns, who have Jerry Judy and the Raiders, were tied with the Jaguars for the third, third fewest passing touchdowns in the NFL. So that's 3,717 passing yards, 19 touchdowns, 15 interceptions. It's Liam cone that you're buying into as well here, and you're just hoping that Trevor Lawrence does something. But if they can get up to 4,100 passing yards and 25 touchdowns, it's not really asking that much in my opinion. I do think it's going to be a total funnel of targets and I think Brian Thomas Jr. Is going to lead the team in targets. I don't think you're too high on him at all. I think you guys all have him as wide receiver eight. And I, I mean, I'm totally. I think you guys are doing fine here with this because the Jaguars passing game is going to make up for the Travis Hunter issue by just being much, much better overall.

[Dave]

Well, that makes me feel worse that you're signing off on this.

[Adam]

I, I think it makes up, like Dave said, something that I might even put more emphasis on. He said there's, there's a reasonable chance or something that Travis Hunter is a good wide receiver.

[Dave]

Yeah, good is too light of a word.

[Adam]

Like there's a, there's a chance he's.

[Dave]

The number one receiver in Jacksonville.

[Adam]

Yeah, I was trying to put a percentage on it and I think it's, it's higher than 25 chance that Travis Hunter is just the best wide receiver on Jacksonville and one of the best wide receivers in the NFL moving forward.

[Heath]

Yeah. But I think there's a pretty guy.

[Dave]

That'S more likely to get short and intermediate targets compared to btj.

[Heath]

Brian Thomas, so good. He was so. He. He's. He. Yeah. What you just said about Travis Hunter being one of the best receivers, I mean, I think, I think Brian Thomas Jr. Has a better chance of being one of the best wide receivers in the NFL. That's how good he was last year. One of the best yards per route run rates that we've ever seen from a rookie. Yeah.

[Dave]

It is not unreasonable to suggest that this could eventually be one of the three best wide receiver duos in the league.

[Adam]

I. I think Adam, like we obviously all agree that Brian Thomas Jr. Has a better chance of. That's why we have him ranked so, so much higher. But that most wide receivers in that range don't have. Like Chase has Higgins, but we have a 0% concern that Higgins is going to be better than Chase.

[Heath]

Yeah.

[Adam]

Jefferson out of adam, same thing, 0%. Lamb and picking same thing, 0%. Maybe Puka has a little bit of that concern more than. Than the other guys. But Thomas probably has the biggest risk in terms of just the unknown of how good Travis Hunter could be.

[Heath]

I agree. I mean, I think the optimistic case. It reminds me of my fears two seasons ago. I want to say about AJ Brown. When Devontae Smith ended that season the first time the Eagles went on their super bowl run, Devontae Smith, second half of the year, I think he out targeted AJ Brown or it was almost even. So I was a little worried about A.J. brown that year, but what's happened in the two years since A.J. brown gets. I mean, we know Devontae Smith's a great player, but A.J. brown just gets so many more targets than him and his. His stud. By the way, if you're looking at the consensus rankings on YouTube and you heard me say that everybody, that Dave, Jamie and Heath all have Brian Thomas Jr. As wide receiver 8, how is he actually wide receiver 9 in the consensus rankings? It's just because A.J. brown is fifth for Heath. So that. So consensus can be a little bit different than just looking at the individual rankings. All right, let's move on here. So Jerry, Judy for Heath, that's one player he's worried about being wrong about. Dave is worried about that he's too high on Brian Thomas Jr. I wanted to talk about Jalen Waddle with the John now that we've had a night to kind of digest the Jalen Watt or the John who Smith Trade going to Pittsburgh. And Waddle was not even a top 50 wide receiver last year. Per game, he was 56th. He was 49th overall. He played 15 games, scored two touchdowns. But if we just look at the first three years of his career, 2021, he's wide receiver 14 per game in PPR, 23 per game in non PPR. This was a weird season. It was before Tyreek hill. He got 142 targets and he just 104 catches. Not a lot of big plays lower. A dot that was not really the Jalen Waddle we expected. 2022, he's the number eight wide receiver overall. He's 10th per game in non PPR, 14th per game in full PPR. 2023 was kind of a weird year. He had a few games that he played about half the snaps. He just wasn't on the field nearly as much. But his yards per out run rate was amazing. It was seventh in the NFL. It was higher than it was in his. In his standout 2021 season or 2022 season. So Jalen Waddle was 22nd per game in PPR, 20th per game in non PPR. So his first three years, 14th per game in PPR, 14th per game in Ppr, 22nd per game in PPR. And in non PPR, 23rd, 10th and 20th per game. So just by that logic, and you're seeing the rankings right now, Jalen Waddle's 37th. I don't know if that's updated or not since yesterday, but just by that logic, isn't it pretty easy to make the case that Jalen Waddle should be a top 24 wide receiver on draft day.

[Adam]

I. I thought on Twitter yesterday, Jared Smola had a. A really good little chart that he put out that showed the percentage of the Dolphins targets that in the last three years and for the purposes of this conversation, that the relevant number is. In 2022, 66.5% of the Dolphins targets went to wide receivers. In 2023, it was 67.8%. Those are both higher than average. Very good. Not outlandish. Not as outlandish as last year when it was 50%.

[Heath]

Yikes.

[Adam]

And I think figuring out with John O. Smith gone, where that percentage goes to determines where Waddle ends up in rankings. If it's 65%, then yes, he's a. He's a surefire top 24 wide receiver. I am just kind. Kind of like with Rashid Rice, but I'm just kind of in a holding pattern with Water Waddle right now. Because I want to see who the Dolphins bring in to play tight end. I don't believe their starting tight end is currently on their roster.

[Dave]

I heard that. I also, I also remembered that in 2023 he had zero games with 15 or more PPR points when both Tyreek and A Chan were on the field. That number did increase in 2024 to 3. Three games where he had 15 plus sharing with Tyreek and Achan, he had. He has nine games in his past, 37 overall with 15 or more PPR points. This is, this is an example of when things go wrong for a super talented wide receiver. Okay, when, when we talk about Waddle's talent. Yeah, he's fast, he's a good route runner. He's shifty, he's got good hands. He can make plays after the catch. Like we all knew this. We've all seen this. And now it's like, well, now he's in a, in a split role. He's not getting the type of volume that we want. His quarterback isn't as efficient as we want them to be. This happens sometimes. This happens to people's careers. This is Waddle's life and we're just fantasy managers. But we can't look at him and say, okay, now this is going to be the year when the two guys that meant the most to impacting his numbers over the last two seasons are still on this team and still theoretically in very large roles. And they're probably going to add another tight end. So I could take more targets away.

[Adam]

I, I think the interesting question right now, and I don't. I think we'd all answer it differently probably. But who, like, what's the, the hierarchy of tight ends they could potentially acquire that would either keep Waddle where he is or move Waddle up. Like, I think we've heard whispers about Kyle Pitts being potentially available coal commitment, somebody who could potentially be. The Raiders apparently don't want to trade Michael Mayer. The Seahawks just drafted a tight end. Maybe they want to move no offense money.

[Heath]

Right.

[Adam]

Like guys like which of those guys would matter to Jalen Waddle? And it's a difficult question to answer because John O. Smith wasn't ever anything like what John who Smith was before last year.

[Dave]

Yeah, John who Smith is an example of a guy who we might have viewed as not being a super talented player who did get an opportunity.

[Adam]

I think fans pretty comparable.

[Dave]

Right? Well, but that's the thing. Like it could be anytime. Gerald Everett is a free agent, Heath. But if he goes to Miami and The Dolphins decide we're going to use Gerald Everett just like we use John New Smith. He's going to be.

[Adam]

I think it's gonna be a bad time. I think that's gonna be a big like. I, I would probably move Waddle up at least six spots if Gerald Everett's their plan.

[Heath]

Let me wrap it up.

[Dave]

Should be give Jalen Waddle the ball more.

[Heath]

Yeah, I agree.

[Dave]

Why haven't they done that? That's a question that, you know, you've got to think about. They, they, they, they literally decided in the middle of last year, let's throw the ball 4 yards or closer to the line of scrimmage to John who Smith a hundred times when they've got Tyreek Hill and Jalen Waddle on the team.

[Heath]

Right. They just traded Johnny Smith, so that could be an indication that they are ready to funnel targets back to three players now, H.N. tyree kill and Jalen Waddle. But we'll see what happens. We'll keep an eye on the developments. As of right now, if we were drafting today, you're still not, not considering waddle a top 30 wide receiver, correct?

[Dave]

No.

[Heath]

All right.

[Dave]

It might be a mistake, but no. Round six.

[Heath]

All right, I got to get a commercial break in here. When we come back, I want to tell you about our draft a thon some news and notes and players were worried about being wrong about after this.

[Adam]

What's up, everyone? It's Sia Najad, host of the Early Edge, part of the CBS Sports Podcast network. Be sure to lock in with me and our team of sportsline betting experts every single day as we deliver our best bets across all the summer sports. We'll have you covered every day and all summer long in mlb, wnba, soccer, tennis, golf, and much more. If you want the early look on the betting plays of the day, you've got a home at the Early Edge. Download and follow on Apple podcasts, Spotify and anywhere podcasts are found. Novocaine is now streaming on Paramount plus.

[Dave]

You're gonna love this.

[Adam]

It's an adrenaline rush of fun.

[Dave]

This is the best and a bloody good time.

[Heath]

Looking forward to it.

[Adam]

Novocain, Rated R. Now streaming on Paramount Plus.

[Heath]

Okay, it is July. It is draftathon month for basically the next two months. Really, it's draftathon season. We're going to be raising money for St. Jude. So St. Jude, they, they treat pediatric cancer patients. But not only that, with the money you give to St. Jude doesn't just go to that, it goes to the families who basically they don't want the families to have to worry about anything other than their child so they don't have to worry about room and board and all that. So you, you donate to St. Jude, you're helping not just the child, you're helping the entire family here. This is an amazing charity and we've been, I think this is our eighth draft a thon and for the last two years we've reached six figures in terms of donations. So first of all, the, one of the biggest drivers here is the FFT Open. The FFT Open is like the Scott Fishbowl. Basically there are, last year we had 12 different leagues. The first year is going to be year three of the FFT Open. The first year we had eight leagues. Last year we expanded to 12 and there was an Adam league, a Heath league, a Dave league, a Jamie league, a Schneier league, a Schaefer League and six others from the CBS family. And you it's $250 a spot. We open 11 spots up in each league. Yeah, look, it's, it's a little bit of money but it all goes, all of it goes to St. Jude. So let me get my calculator out real quick. We fill up a league and this is actually easy math. $2,750 for every league that we fill up. Now you have to win your individual 12 team league and then you advance to a two round playoff and then we have an FFT Open champion. So we've been lucky enough to go from eight leagues to 12 leagues. This year there are going to be 24 leagues, 24 FFT open leagues. If we fill every spot at $250 each, we're raising $66,000 for St. Jude and that will absolutely put us on a path to a hundred thousand dollars. Now these leagues are going live. On July 22nd, I believe I will get the exact date. You still got some time but a few weeks from now those are going to be live. So I'll tell you all about that. I'm going to bug you with that for a few weeks but for right now what you can bid on is a mailbag question. You Here we go. If you're looking, it's easy to see here on, on YouTube.com fantasy football today the URL you want to go to though is tinyurl.com 2025fft tinyurl.com 2025fft Donate $50. Ask us a question. It will be read on a mailbag episode and we'll be releasing more throughout the month. I think the next two months. Tinyurl.com Now I know that was a pretty long explanation about draft a thon. I won't do that on every show. But there you go. That's, that's the intro to it. If you want to ask us a question, you want to get your question answered on our Mailbag podcast, you can buy that right now for $50. It all goes to St. Jude. Tinyurl.com 2025fft all right, some news and notes for you. Teams are discussing whether or not they should trade or can trade for T.J. watt, one of the best edge rushers in the NFL. He's unhappy with his contract with Pittsburgh. They're trying to work it out. Meanwhile, Tom Pelissero says the Steelers have no intention of trading for TJ Watt, and the first report about teams discussing the possibility was from Adam Schefter. Vincent Bonsignor of the Las Vegas Review Journal says, as Heath mentioned, I think just a couple minutes ago, the Raiders have no interest in trading Michael Mayer and Washington and Terry McLaurin. They have not made any progress on contract negotiations. That's according to Adam Schefter. So we will move on to players we are worried about being wrong about. And Heath has a list of five players he's worried he's too high on. One of them is Jerry Judy. The other four are Saquon Barkley, Ashton, Genty, T. Higgins and Devonte Adams. Barkley, Genty, Higgins and Adams. You're worried you're too high on them. And you have, as we look at the top, your top 200 rankings, you have Barkley third, Jamie and Dave have him sixth. You have Genti fifth. Jamie and Dave have him around 12th. You have Higgins 19th. Jamie and Dave are around 24th. And you have Adams 37th. And you're the low guy on him. And you were, you're too high. All right, how about these two running backs in the top five, Barkley and Genti?

[Adam]

Yeah, I mean, I think the Barkley one's pretty easy, right? The we the reason Dave and Jamie don't have SAQUON BARKLEY Number one or number two overall is because he had 5 million touches last year. And they're most running backs who get 5 million touches in a season the following year, they either get hurt or they aren't as good. And I, I would, I probably would have Barkley number one overall if it wasn't for that. And I'm not sure that at 3 or 4, I've lowered it enough that that risk is real. At the same time, a lot of times when guys show the ability to handle that type of work, they are guys who have the ability to handle that type of work. And this is a fantastic situation. And Barkley could score 15 to 20 touchdowns. And it shouldn't really surprise anybody.

[Heath]

Look, I don't think Dave's gonna fight you too much because he's got him sixth. But I know Dave, you made the point before that Barkley has had that kind of or close to that kind of work before and he followed it up with an injured season. Right.

[Dave]

It wasn't 5 million touches, but it was 350 or more touches. And each of the first two times he had at least 350 touches. His fantasy production did fall the second year or the year after on a per game basis. But I, I talked about this last week too. I don't think he was around to hear it. I'll be brief. There have been 25 running backs, including Saquon, over the last 35 years to have at least 400 carries in a season of those previous 24, because we don't know how Saquon's going to do. Seventeen of them fell short and either got hurt or saw at least a 25 drop in their PPR game point per game average the following year after the 400 touch season. So I. If you look at Saquon's number from last year per game, what was he, around 22, 23? You lop off 25 of that. Yeah, that's still a pretty good number for fantasy, but it's not top five good. So I'm not taking him as a top five pick. There are a lot of people that will. I'm gonna let them do it and I will let them take the chance on Saquon Barkley, who has struggled to have a monster year after having a monster year to do that in his age 28 season.

[Adam]

And, and I'll just say that Dave's giving me flashbacks right now and they're not the good kind. Like, I spent the entire summer citing historical evidence of older running backs who change teams and aren't as good as they've been in the past. And Saquon, Barkley and Derrick Henry made that look completely foolish. I, I think like that information is all right and that information is why I'm worried I'm too high on Barkley. But also, Barkley and Henry just destroyed historical precedent last year and they are the types of backs with the talent to do that.

[Dave]

Honestly, the history that you're talking about though, is just changing teams. It's not something related to their actual physical activity. Especially in the case of Saquon, who's shown us twice before in his career on fewer touches. He had 482 touches last year on 350 touches. He took a step back the following year. Now he's got 482. I think it's. I listen, I'm worried I'm too high on him and I'm either tied for being the low guy or I'm the low guy on him.

[Heath]

Yeah, you and Jamie both have him sixth. Last year it wasn't just Barkley and Henry, it was Jones and Connor. Every running back kind of overachieved based on historical trends in. You know, it's those concerns. This is a different discussion, but those concerns should still be there for a guy like James Connor. He's pretty old. He's what, 30 now, right?

[Dave]

He's 30 just because he's over 30. Derek Henry's over 30.

[Heath]

But. But at least Jones is going pretty late. You know what, Round seven, I think.

[Dave]

We said yesterday, compared to the other.

[Heath]

Guys, Connors could be around 5 pick. And just because he was able to do it at 29 doesn't mean you should just ignore the fact that he's 30. But okay, Genti as your number five overall player and I'm guessing that's your RB. Oh, that's your RB4. So you have four running backs in your top five. Bijan, Chase, Barkley, HN Genti.

[Adam]

I don't think this is drafting Genti at his ceiling. I think Genti ceiling is the best running back in fantasy football for five years. He's such a rare combination of a workhorse back who is comfortable handling the ball 20 times a game and a guy who can score from anywhere on the field. I don't believe reports that there's going to be some sort of committee in Las Vegas because I see the names behind him on the depth chart. This was possibly potentially, it has been argued by many people, a historically good running back class. And there was really very, very little. Just maybe a couple of Amari and Hampton fans, but pretty much a strong consensus that the best running back in one of the best draft classes we've seen in a while was Ashton Genti. There's a reason he was drafted so high. I think Chip Kelly makes this offensive environment better. Geno Smith makes this offensive environment better. And I, I'm worried I'm too high because he's A rookie, and he hasn't done it in the NFL yet. But every way we have of evaluating running backs coming into the NFL tells us this is a superstar. And I, I don't, I don't know that you can draft them too high.

[Heath]

How about we take a little trip down memory lane? Let's look at the last 10 years of running backs drafted pretty early in the first round, let's say the first half of the first round. Todd Gurley, back in 2015, he was RB4 per game and non PPR, RB9 per game and full PPR. But he was coming off an ACL tear. Missed the first two. Isn't that amazing? Missed the first two games, had seven touches in week three, and from weeks four through 16, he was on pace. It was just a monster. But he only, he was only on pace for 28 catches, so they barely had him in the passing game. So. So RB9 per game in non P. In full, in full PBR for girly RB4 per game in non PPR. Ezekiel Elliott, number three running back per game, 2016 Leonard Fournette, number five per game in non PPR number eight per game in full PPR. Christian McCaffrey had a disappointing rookie season. He was one of the few early first round picks that didn't have more than 18 touches per game. Barkley, number two per game in full PPR, number four per game and non PPR. That's basically it until we get to Bijan, who was a bust because of the whole, you know, what's his name?

[Adam]

The combination of Arthur Smith and the Migraine.

[Heath]

Yeah, but they're also one game. I was gonna say Tyler Alger, but.

[Adam]

It had a huge impact on his per game numbers.

[Heath]

And Jameer Gibbs was number eight per game, so there haven't been that many that have been top five per game. It's Zeke, it's Barkley. And then in non ppr, it was girly and Fournette, which is pretty good actually. That's like half the guys or more.

[Adam]

But about a 50, 50 shot.

[Heath]

But in full PPR, it's only two guys. It's only Barkley and, and Zeke. I, however, take away from this, like the opportunity is there. I mean, most of these guys are getting a ton of work. 19 or more touches per game. Zeke had 24, 23.6 touches per game. Barkley, 22 touches per game. You know, that's a, If I, if I told everyone that, that Ashton Genti was going to get 22 touches per game, I think they, they'd Consider him of the top five pick, right?

[Dave]

Sure.

[Adam]

Oh yeah.

[Heath]

Speaking for everyone. And then I think we, we talked a lot about T. Higgins. Are you worried about that you're too high on him because of the injury history?

[Adam]

100%.

[Heath]

Okay, so let's talk about Adams then.

[Adam]

Yeah, I. He's a 32 year old wide receiver who I, I know I'm the low guy on him in terms of overall. I think amongst wide. I'm just a little lower on some of the wide receivers in that range than Dave and Jamie are because overall wide receiver I am 16 or 17. But he's a 32 year old wide receiver. He has a very old quarterback and he has Pukinakua on the team also. I, I think the evidence that we have is devonte Adams. Wherever he goes, he earns a bunch of targets. I mean that's going to be true until it's not. And for a lot of elite wide receivers, 32 has been the age where it's not been true anymore.

[Heath]

Yeah, I wish he had gone somewhere else so I could just quit devonte Adams. But this Rams go to the Patriots. No, I don't know that I would have quit him if you go to the Patriots.

[Dave]

But why couldn't he have gone to the Titans?

[Heath]

Yeah, there we go then. Like 5th round pick. But I get the appeal. I get the appeal. He still gets open. His open score was really good last year and the advanced metrics and Cooper Cup, I, I say it over and over again. Cooper Cup. He faded. His last three games are horrible. He had I think nine or ten targets before that. He was basically elite. So yeah. Dave, what do you think about Adams? You're higher on him than Heath is. Are you worried that you're too high on Adams?

[Dave]

No. Part of the problem is that I don't have another receiver that I would take ahead of him here in my rankings. Here are the receivers I've got just behind him. Rasheed Rice, jsn, Tyreek Hill, Garrett Wilson. You can make the case for any or all four of those guys to go ahead of devonte Adams. And you could start that case with the Grandma Gilmore argument that he's too old. Look at him. He's too old. But when you actually look at devonte Adams, he does not look too old. You mentioned the open score from ESPN for Devonte Adams. You see it on film. So there's no real evidence that he's slowing down. And now he's going to an offense that is notorious for scheming their wide receivers. Wide ass open on a week to week basis and defenses are probably going to have the opinion of, well, maybe we should slow down Pukinakua first since he's the younger guy instead of double teaming Devonte Adams. Or they're just going to play a ton of zone and it's going to be easy underneath throws. We know Devonte Adams can win on those as well. We're going to talk about another Rams player that I'm getting a little nervous about and if, if he doesn't come through, then it's going to mean more passing for LA and it's going to end up being a boon for Devonte Adams, who I think is going to be their best red zone weapon. I talked about this as soon as he signed with la. He is perfect to fit into the Cooper cup role if they so choose to put him in that role. He is a borderline wide receiver. One for me. I don't like him as much as Sportsline. Did you see that, Adam? Sportsline has him at 8, but I still think he can be very good and I'm looking forward to drafting him in round three.

[Heath]

Taking him ahead of Tyreek Hill is an insult to me. I'm insulted in your face.

[Adam]

He was so much better last year.

[Heath]

I. I just don't care, you know?

[Adam]

Right. You. I think you've made it very clear that you just do not care about any, anything negative about Tyreek Hill.

[Heath]

It's pretty. I mean, other than the off field stuff, I care about that. But in terms of fantasy production, of.

[Adam]

All people care less about the off field stuff.

[Heath]

No, in terms of fantasy production.

[Dave]

No. I'm.

[Heath]

I'm attributing it. Attributing. Attributing it to the injury and the one guy last year, by the way. Last year I said I don't care. I am completely writing off his really bad 2020 season. You know who. Remember who it was?

[Adam]

Deshaun Watson.

[Heath]

It was T. Hit kind of. It was T. Higgins. It was T. Higgins who I, I thought had a lot of excuses for a horrible 2023 season. But no, like, obviously I'm a little worried that I'm too high on Tyreek Hill because as of now, I plan on drafting him a lot and he's 31.

[Adam]

But I think I did move Tyreek with the John O. News ahead of Devonte. So that was his move that I made. I'm still lower than you on him.

[Heath]

But yeah, well, I would expect that. All right, so that's Heath's list. Oh, wait, there was more to Heath's list. Oh, man, we're definitely not going to get to everyone. Let's take a break and talk about players. Heath is worried he's too low on after this. College football summer is no time to.

[Dave]

Slouch because we are taking you to.

[Heath]

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[Dave]

Of the CBS Sports Podcast Network.

[Heath]

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[Adam]

Break down some of your favorite teams.

[Heath]

With experts and insiders who know these.

[Dave]

Depth charts from top to bottom.

[Adam]

But summer school is just extra credit.

[Heath]

Because you can join myself, Chip Patterson.

[Dave]

Along with Tom Fenelli, Danny Cannell and.

[Heath]

Bud Elliott three times a week as we go through positional drafts, player rankings and more.

[Adam]

Download and follow the COVID 3 podcast.

[Heath]

On Apple Podcasts, Spotify and anywhere podcasts are found.

[Dave]

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[Heath]

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[Adam]

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[Dave]

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[Dave]

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[Heath]

Matter how good your team is, you're not good enough.

[Adam]

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[Dave]

Now streaming on Paramount Plus.

[Heath]

All right, Heath, you have Derrick Henry 21st overall, whereas Jamie has him 16th and Dave has him 14th. So I guess, you know, Barkley wasn't really that much better than Derek Henry. Barkley was RB1 per game. Henry was RB3 per game. Why are you so much higher on Barkley than you are Henry? You say you're a little worried that you're too low on Henry at 21 overall.

[Adam]

Well, I mean, the reason I'm a little weird I'm too low on them is because of last year. The reason that I have like the difference between RB1 and RB3 or 4 depending on which site you're looking at for Henry. And full PPR is it was still also a two full points per game. Like I've got stretches at wide receiver where 17 guys might be separated by one point per game in the projection. So it two points per game is significant. Three years of age is significant. I think it's just more I. You have to decide whether you're more worried about Barclays touches last year or Henry's age 31 season.

[Heath]

All right, let's go through the rest of your list so we can get to Dave's list here. Yes, Players, you're worried you're too low on Garrett Wilson. Go.

[Adam]

Yeah. If the connection with Justin Fields is as good as it was in college and Fields takes even one more kind of small step forward. I don't know if people realize his passer rating has gone up every year of his career. His interception rate's gone down in every year of his career. His sack rate's gone down each of the last three years. If he continues getting better and has that connection with Wilson, Wilson could finally have the season that justifies the way we've all been feeling about him. I'm still just a little nervous about it.

[Heath]

Dave and Jamie have Wilson as basically a 3, 4 turn pick right around 35th overall and you've got him 47th. So around later on Garrett Wilson, Xavier Worthy. You have at wow, 71 and he's top 50 overall. This is not wide receiver ranking 71 overall for Heath on Xavier worthy, whereas 45th for Dave, 49th for Jamie.

[Adam]

I'm worried that Rashid Rice will not be 100 and I'm too low on Xavier Worthy. But I do think if rashi rice is 100 there's not going to be enough targets to support Xavier Worthy as a top 24 wide receiver.

[Heath]

Dave, do you agree with that sentiment? Is you have Worthy in your top 50 overall, you have him as a fourth round pick. If Rashid Rice is 100, is your are you going to be too high on Worthy?

[Dave]

No, I'm worried that it's just going to be inconsistent volume for not only Worthy and Rice, but for Kelsey too. The the thing that I really like about Worthy is his speed. It's a differentiator between him and Rice and obviously him and Kelsey and that's something that the Chiefs can find ways to utilize. They did find ways to utilize it from, you know, the last, let's call it like six weeks of the regular season and into the playoffs. And it wasn't just worthy running 45 yards downfield. It was screen passes, it was slants, it was reverses. They're going to find ways to use his speed and that might help him stay involved in the offense on a on a consistent basis, but not necessarily a high number of touches and targets. From week to week those numbers will fluctuate, but the usage of how he's used and the opportunities that come out of it because he's so explosive could lead to some good efficiency. I think he will justify being a top 50 pick.

[Adam]

I should have said it is possible that Dave's right and Rushy Rice and Xavier Worthy are both top 20 wide receivers and Travis Kelsey is a top 10 tight end and then we're just all too low On Patrick Mahomes, right?

[Heath]

Yeah. What do you think about this scenario? This is maybe where I'm leading. Rice is really good, Worthy's really good, and Kelsey is waiver wire fodder or he's just, he's like a low end. You're not probably not gonna end up on the waiver wire, but he's, you know, 10th per game or something like that, not really making an impact.

[Dave]

It's possible.

[Adam]

So I think it probably depends on how Kelsey is 10th per game because he's either going to need to continue to get a lot of targets like he did last year and not score touchdowns, or he steals or he steals touchdowns from Worthy and Rice and does sees a drop off in targets. But I don't think both of those things are going to make room for Worthy and Rice and Mahomes is just QB6.

[Heath]

Do you think I'm taking too big of a deal?

[Dave]

Get 4 for 40 with a touchdown each week. That's how Kelsey will get it done.

[Heath]

Do you think I'm making too big of a deal out of 12 targets in the first. Let me just get a target share. 13% target share in the first three games of the season before Rashee Rice's injury. That was Travis Kelsey.

[Dave]

I almost wonder if a lot of that had to do with how the Ravens defended Rasheed Rice in week one. And I wonder if a lot of that has to do with the Chiefs trying to acclimate Rasheed Rice and kind of establish, okay, everybody in the league, watch out, this is what we're going to use him for. I think those two factors might have been why Rasheed Rice had such a high target volume before he got hurt.

[Adam]

I just, and I know like Worthy was a rookie, so we kind of give him a pass on it, but Worthy didn't have more than four targets in a game until week five. And he had a four week stretch in the middle of the season where he was averaging four targets per game like he, he basically just had. I mean it wasn't even that great of a strike that he had a.

[Dave]

Huge super bowl the last six games.

[Adam]

Right. But, but even in those last six games, like in the playoffs, he had a 45 yard game against the Texans.

[Heath]

Yeah, and Kelsey was good in that game. As I recall.

[Adam]

He had a, he had a 46 yard game in week 15 against the Browns, 41 and week 14 against the Chargers. Like, I just, I don't, I, I like calling. I mean, I'm worried I'm too low on Worthy. I, I get It. But it just. The. The. If Rice and Kelsey are both healthy, I don't think there's enough targets. I think he's one of those guys that Dave complains about because he scores 18 points one week and then he has two weeks with single digits and then he scores 18 again. And you don't know when you're getting which Xavier Worthy.

[Heath]

So if the case for Worthy is the last six games he played, including the postseason, but not including week 18, I don't think he. I think. I think if he played in Week 18, it was. It was okay. So the last six games he played, including the postseason, but not Week 18, Xavier Worthy scored 19.6 or more PPR fantasy points in five of six games. He had 11, 11, nine, six, seven and eight targets. But also he had four games with. Well, he had one game with negative eight rushing yards, but he had. Let's see, he had three. Three. He had nine carries. Right. So there's a little bit of rushing there, too. With Xavier worthy, that helps nine carries in six games. And they were only throwing 240 yards per game. Passing yards per game. Right. And that's. That's, again, that's kind of like the same Jacksonville argument I made is let's just get more passing production from the Chiefs and everyone can profit from it. And then you're worried you're too low on Mark Andrews and Basil Tootin. Mark Andrews is your tight end 10, which is more or less in line with Dave and Jamie. Dave's actually the low guy on Andrews at tight end 12 in PPR.

[Adam]

Yeah, I, I still like Mark Andrews. Over the last five years has been one of the best tight ends in the NFL. Last year he completely disappeared from the Ravens order of priority in terms of targets, but still scored a bunch of touchdowns from a projections point you can't even get. I can't even get Andrews into the top 12. I'm just ranking him higher than he projects. But there's a chance that the Ravens just decide this guy's really good and we're going to give him the ball more. It's just hard. It's harder for me to believe that at his age and with likely there and with Flowers emerging and with the fact that Lamar and Derek Henry might run the ball 30 times a game.

[Heath]

Right. Okay. And I think what makes it tough is that he's still so good. Right.

[Adam]

Right. I think there's tight ends who are not as. I don't think are as good as Mark Andrews that I have ranked ahead of him. Right now because of concerns about Andrew's targets, and that's uncomfortable. You'd rather just draft the better players?

[Heath]

And give me a quick thought on Basil Tootin, rookie running back for the Jaguars.

[Adam]

I don't understand the Basial Tootin thing at all. And he's currently in CBS adp. The first Jacksonville running back being drafted. I think he might be in Best Ball. Also, Travis Etienne is a good pass catching back. Tank Bigsby was legitimately, by several metrics, one of the best rushers last year and Basil Tootin's a day three running back. I just, I don't think the argument for me that Cohen inherited these other two guys and then made a priority to go draft Tootin on day three is anywhere close to enough justification to draft him as high as they are. But maybe everybody else is right and I'm wrong.

[Heath]

All right, that. Oh boy, we have a really good question. Man, I want to get to this. All right, here we go. This is actually from Tim Stafford, who's in our Bake Burger Dynasty League.

[Dave]

Oh, good.

[Heath]

Tim is a very knowledgeable guy, right? He says whenever Saquon's discussed, it appropriately gets pointed out that he had a very heavy workload last season. And relatedly, that historical data pretty clearly indicates a high chance of a meaningful dip in production or worse, an injury. However, almost never do we hear the same thing about ashton Genty. In 14 games last season, Genti had 374 carries and 23 receptions. That's nearly 400 touches. Why aren't we equally worried about Ashton Genti's prior season?

[Dave]

That's part of the reason why I don't have him as high as Heath has them. And I think that's part of the reason why the Raiders might say, all right, Raheem Moser, get in there for a series. They're going to want to try and make sure that wear and tear doesn't slow him down either. Same thing with Derrick Henry. Henry had almost 400 touches last year. There is a difference between the type of contact that's made in the Mountain West Conference and the National Football League though. So I, I think Genty's body will be a little more ready for the rough and tumble NFL game than others would be because of that.

[Heath]

Okay, all right, moving on to day.

[Adam]

Oh yeah, no, it's okay.

[Heath]

Okay, Dave, players you're worried about being wrong about. You're worried you're too high on Brian Thomas Jr. We heard that. How about a couple of running backs that could be second round picks? ADP has them maybe in the third round or at least one of them. Chase Brown and Kyron Williams. Although honestly, fantasy pros, ADP is so low on Kyron Williams, it's kind of weird. He is going. Everybody hates 35th overall. Chase Brown is going 28th overall there, but Chase Brown and Kyron Williams. Dave, what are you concerned about being wrong about here with Chase Brown?

[Dave]

I'm worried that he's going to have too many difficult matchups. And we can laugh at Zach Moss and Samaj P. Ryan being on the depth chart behind Chase Brown, but those guys are going to end up getting minimum roles, smaller roles, but they're still going to cut into Chase Brown. And, and one of the nice things about Brown last year was he played like 80 of the snaps, like from week six on, like breakout running back, all that stuff. Played a ton of snaps. I think it was because he had to. And now the Bengals might not have to use him as much. And if, if we love Jamar Chase and we love T. Higgins and we love Joe Burrow, I'm wondering if they're going to end up throwing a ton again and that could end up hurting Chase Brown. Maybe the touchdown regression monster bites him. And it's all factors that make me a little bit nervous about having him ranked too high. No question he's a top 15 type of fantasy running back, but I've been thinking a little bit about his schedule versus Bucky Irving's schedule, his workload versus Bucky Irving's workload. Bucky Irving's workload has nowhere to go but up. Chase Browns has nowhere to go but down.

[Adam]

I, I have. I share almost all of Dave's concerns about Chase Brown. I think the easiest way to say it is if you'd have told us a year ago we were ranking Chase Brown as a top 10 running back for basically any period of time. We would have all thought you were insane. And those types of guys without that pedigree that have those types of years often fall on their face. I don't really have the concerns about the Bengals passing too much because Joe Burrow and Jamar Chase just had career years and Chase was, and Chase Brown was awesome during that period of time. So I, I think that's okay. But I, yeah, I mean, it's just the, the, the. The history of guys who do what Brown did with his little fanfare beforehand.

[Dave]

And as for Kyron Williams, his efficiency metrics were way off in 2024 compared to 2023. He fumbled a bunch. Rams added another running back. Their offensive line has a little bit of a question mark, especially at left tackle. They added Devonte Adams to replace Cooper Cup. I I just wonder if if Kyron Williams starts coughing up the football early on in the year, are we going to see more of Jarquez, Hunter and maybe Blake Coram? Do the Rams go in a different direction? I will feel better about Kyron Williams if the Rams sign Williams to a nice extension before the season starts. That tells me that they really do like him and they really do want him to stick around and they're not worried about his fumble issue and they really feel like he is a true stud running back for them. But if they don't do that, then what are they telling us? They're either. They're telling us either Kyron Williams is asking for way too much money or that they don't think he's their future at rb.

[Heath]

Yeah, no, I'm just gonna, I was just gonna ask if there's anything other than the fumbles though, you know is.

[Dave]

Yeah, his efficiency tanked last year but have we ever.

[Adam]

And maybe there's a really easy example that you guys can think of but I'm just trying to think of a 25 year old running back who said back to back seasons over 17 fantasy points per game. Who does whose only competition Hunter was another day three pick. Right?

[Dave]

Yeah, sure. And it's not like he's an amazing.

[Adam]

That we get a chance to draft at the end of round two. Like it just seems like a gift.

[Heath]

I especially if it's the ADP is real and it's the end of round three. That's just. That's a joke too far.

[Dave]

That's way too far. Yeah, I, I don't mind him at the end of round two. I do mind him at the end of round one.

[Heath]

Yeah.

[Adam]

Yeah. I don't have him at the end of round one. I, I think like he did miss a couple of games but over the last two seasons his 17 game pace is 1700 yards and 19 touchdowns.

[Heath]

Kyron Williams is going 26th in the only fans ADP by the way. So in the CBS ADP. So yeah, people were alone.

[Adam]

He's going behind fell flat. Adam's trying to reclaim the joke and it just fell flat. Everybody, all. Everybody in the chat. So why did, why did Adam just steal his joke from yesterday?

[Heath]

I'm so pissed about this because like he's still. He stole greater late from me and, and assigned it to Jamie.

[Dave]

No, no that's.

[Heath]

Jamie had that but no I that was mine and Then you just kept giving it to Jamie and now people are giving Heath credit for this Only fans joke that I've been making since last year. And I get this email from a Steve who says I was listening. I was listening to the podcast while I was going to sleep and I woke myself up laughing when Heath said Dave's only fans ADP and I like lol Steve. That was me. That was my joke. He stole it from me and he thinks it was my delivery. But I don't think so. I think my delivery is fine. Yeah, see, there we go. Dwight's laughing. Only fans. Yes. Should be laughing your face off. Okay, you're worried you're too high on Lamar Jackson. Dave.

[Dave]

23.7 fantasy points per game in 2023, 22.5 in 2022, 21.6 in 2021. I'm willing to throw out 2021 and 2022 because Todd Monkin was not running the offense then in Baltimore. He was in 2023. Maybe you throw that out as well because it was his first year running the offense in Baltimore. And then if we do that then sure. Lamar Jackson, he had over 30 fantasy points per game last year. Could he do that again? Absolutely. Just nervous about him being the number two quarterback. Could he be, could he finish there? Could he be number one? He was number one. Yeah, he could. But he could also be number eight or number nine. The the only real thought I had.

[Heath]

Number eight or nine. How is he going to be number eight or not?

[Dave]

But when he was.

[Heath]

There's a huge issue. This is what like this is. He is a great, great case for Azer stats. There have been several games in those years where he plays barely any of the game, scores almost no points and it tanks his points per game in those weeks. It doesn't matter when he's healthy. He averages over fantasy points per game in six point per passing touchdown leagues every single year. Lamar Jackson when he's healthy is not going to be QB 8 points.

[Dave]

What'd you say he gets in a game this year?

[Heath]

What'd you say?

[Dave]

I'm just going to ask my commissioner to give him 24.

[Heath]

You're really not understanding the concept of the Azer stats. This is, we're trying to get the most representative sample size of when a guy is healthy, doesn't leave a game after three plays. What does he do? I can't control. You started a guy and he gets hurt. What I can control is this is what the player does when he's healthy. When the worst Lamar Jackson does is 24 fantasy points per game basically every single year. Now that's, that could be around QB 4 or 5. There's no way Lamar Jackson's going to be QB 8 when he's healthy. No way.

[Dave]

He's. When do you think Adam's going to realize that? I, I'm messing with him when I.

[Heath]

But it's counterproductive because it's just throwing our listeners off.

[Adam]

Yeah, listen, Adam's obviously a little bit sensitive today every day, some might say. But I, I think that the Lamar, the Lamar concern is basically the T. Higgins concern without quite as much evidence.

[Dave]

Sure.

[Adam]

It's. T. Higgins has had more injury problems. Lamar has had a history of, of missing games due to injury. He's also. I don't know that there is a quarterback and somebody can correct me, that has had the volatility that Lamar Jackson has had in the way that he produces touchdowns. And last year, like, if we were drafting lamar in round one to score 30 points a game again, there'd be great reason to be nervous because he did that mostly because he had an 8.6% touchdown rate. And over his career it's gone 3.5, 9, 6.9, 4.2, 5.2, 5.3, 8.0.6.

[Heath]

Right.

[Adam]

So if, if you expect a 5% passing touchdown rate, it gets a lot more difficult for Lamar to get to QB1.

[Dave]

Also, if we draft Lamar's second QB off the board and he averages 24 fantasy points per game, we're not going to be happy with that.

[Heath]

I agree with that, but I just, I think the floor is probably more like QB 5 or 6. I don't think he could be a okay QB 9 or 10. However, Dave, I am looking at my notes and seeing that there were two years where he averaged more than 24 fantasy points per game and would have finished as QB 8 or 10. I guess those were strong quarterback years. So I apologize. I do take exception. I do take exception with your points per game, but your QB8 was kind of spot on. I still think I don't, and I.

[Dave]

Don'T want him to do that. And I'm again, if, if I can get him as the second QB off the board at a price point that I like, I'm taking them. Just worried that I might be a little too high on him.

[Heath]

Man, if there were eight quarterbacks who averaged 24 fantasy points per game, that must have been a hell of a year for quarterbacks. All right, and then what about jsn? That's an Interesting one. And James Cook. They're going in the same rage.

[Dave]

James Cook is an easy one because of the touchdown regression. He had 18 touchdowns. It's rare when a Bill's running back gets that type of product and he also didn't play a ton. He's kind of on the same sort of touch diet and Snap diet that Bucky Irving was on and I don't know if the Bills have any reason in the world to up his workload, especially if he misses the start of the season because he's holding out for a new contract. So we've got to wait and see what happens with James Cook. He will become a very easy fade if he doesn't participate in training camp isn't a part of the Bill's preseason process. They do tend to play their starters at least one time in a preseason game and it'll make Ray Davis an interesting late round dart throw if if James Cook doesn't end up being a part of of the Bill's operation in this month. As for jsn, we know they're going to move them all over the formation. Probably going to play outside a little bit more. That's not necessarily a death sentence on his stats. He can still run in breaking routes from there and do do fine. I'm concerned about Cooper cup taking work away from him because I think Cooper cup is going to be okay to start the season. Hopefully he plays more than 10 games and it's Sam Darnold at quarterback. I think that's a step down from Geno Smith. I wonder if we're all kind of overrating GSN or gsn. That's my favorite network. JSN when it comes to targets and catches. He's kind of somebody I want to fade in non PPR and I'm getting a little nervous about him in full PPR cpr.

[Adam]

I I think Dave said that the last part really well.

[Dave]

Is it Jay the gsm.

[Heath]

Yeah, the Game Show Network.

[Adam]

If Cooper cup is the guy he was at the beginning of last year he is a much better targeted earner than DK Metcalf. Ever happen right. And much bigger threat and JSN's been dependent on volume. If if Cooper cup is earning 8 to 10 targets per game JSN's a bust.

[Heath]

Yeah, probably Cooper Cup 32 years old. Do you Are you worried Heath that you're too high on jsn? Where do you have him?

[Adam]

I think I have him right about this same place. But I agree with Dave that you and this is why I I have the receivers lower. I think the wide receiver tubes lower than they do. Is you get past that Drake, London lad, McConkey group, and maybe you include Tyreek Hill in it as well. And there's a big drop off and you're just kind of searching for guys to rank 14 through 18 at wide receiver.

[Dave]

Adam, you never know who you might see on gsn.

[Heath]

Yeah. Is that what they say about. Is that the slogan?

[Dave]

No.

[Adam]

No. You're saying you might see somebody on this show.

[Dave]

Sometimes people go on game shows. Those games are replayed.

[Heath]

Do you ever look for that?

[Dave]

No, never.

[Adam]

You guys, would you turn it off if it came on?

[Dave]

I lived it. I don't have to look for it.

[Heath]

Yeah. Dave was on Wheel of Fortune once upon a time. Well, yeah, that's a great question. Would you watch it if it came on?

[Adam]

No, I didn't think so.

[Heath]

Yeah, I would. Fifteenth for jsn for both of you. Thirteenth for Jamie. All right, let's go to two players. You're worried you're too low on Tyree.

[Dave]

Kill till now to talk about this.

[Heath]

Well, you are definitely too low on Tyreek Hill. I agree. And J and Cooper cup was the other one. So that's a good transition here. Tyreek and Cooper cup.

[Dave]

Right? Cup's easy to talk about now because we just got done with jsn. If cup. If cup stays healthy and as of now, he is healthy and they're promising him a lot more slot work, then he's going to be pretty good in ppr. And so all this talk about him going, ah, forget about him. He's old, it's over, it's done. Like, I agree, like, he's not fast, but he can still cut and get open with his route running. He's got good hands. He'll get a lot of targets inside of 10 yards and maybe score a decent amount of touchdowns, like six. But if we're drafting him in like 90th overall, that feels like good value. And so I'm wondering if I'm a little too low on. On Mr. Cup and he should be in that prominent wide receiver three range.

[Heath]

How much do you think the offense is going to translate? Because you talked about the Rams getting people, quote, wide ass open and now he's on the Seahawks.

[Adam]

Kubiak's done that a few times himself, I think.

[Heath]

Yeah. So that's my question.

[Dave]

So, you know, it's the same type of offense. Cup might even be helping Clint Kubiak with scheming guys open because he did it for so long. In LA. And it's. It's a version of that Shanahan McVeigh type of system.

[Heath]

Okay, so we want to talk about Tyreek Hill.

[Dave]

If Tyree Kill is healthy and fast and his wrist is okay, and the Dolphins say, you know what we need to win this year, let's stop throwing the ball to 250 pound Johnny Smith and let's give it to Tyree Kill and let him just scoot all over the field. Man, that. That'll make him one of the best receivers in fantasy. And everyone except Adam will look foolish for having him ranked as low as they do.

[Adam]

Am I the high guy on Hill now?

[Heath]

Well, that doesn't include me.

[Adam]

Yeah. I remember one day very early, and I think year one that I was at CBS when, before I had rankings, asked me where my rankings were. I've always wanted to use that on you. Where are your rankings, Adam?

[Heath]

Right here. He.

[Dave]

I just have ranks.

[Adam]

Do you remember the first two or three years I was primarily a baseball analyst? Yesterday I was primarily. Primarily a baseball analyst who came on the. The football show a couple times a week.

[Heath]

Oh, really? Interesting.

[Dave]

That was you.

[Heath]

What year did you start?

[Adam]

2015.

[Heath]

Okay.

[Adam]

My. My primary first gig was. Remember Daily Fantasy Live?

[Heath]

Yeah.

[Dave]

Yes.

[Adam]

That was. That was me.

[Heath]

Oh, man. Things have changed, huh? But you know what? That's just great. The industry's changed a lot. But. But nothing's changed with fantasy football. It's still super popular and super awesome, incredibly fun. But within fantasy football, things have changed. Dynasty and best ball and all that. But yeah, no, Tyree Kill Heath, you are the high guy. You have him 13th. Yes. Dave has him 16th and Jamie has him 15th. And I think on yesterday's bonus podcast, I was talking about the struggle that I would have because I know I wouldn't put him higher than wide receiver 10. Even though I. I truly believe that we could all be wrong, including me. And he could be wide receiver one. I absolutely believe he has. He might. He's the last wide receiver, I think that has the possibility to be the number one overall guy, the last drafted. But could I put him ahead of T. Higgins and Drake London at wide receiver 10? Because I'm not going to put him ahead of A.J. brown in my theoretical rankings and Brown's wide receiver nine. So, yeah, that's. That would be my dilemma. But I don't think he'll ever get. Actually, I take that back. I do think he will get that high for maybe all of you because it won't take much. He. We already know he's super fast. He made that sprinter back out of the race. Right? Like, he's. We've seen him running. He's incredibly fast. He should be healthy. In terms of the elbow, I don't know what's holding you back at this point, because this. It doesn't make any sense. He was 30 last year. 30 is not old. We can talk about wide receiver age all the time. 30 is not old for guys like Tyree Kill. They do not have a precipitous drop at age 30 from being the best receiver in football quite arguably, but very good argument in 29, a little bit. Hold on. New Adam here at 28 and 29 being the best wide receiver in football to being kind of trash at age 30. That doesn't make any sense. It was the elbow, folks. It was the elbow.

[Adam]

I thought it was the wrist.

[Heath]

It was the wrist. It doesn't matter. They're all connected, Heath. They're all connected. New Adam's not a doctor.

[Adam]

The really important lesson that I hope that everybody takes from that. That rant there is that age is. Does not affect everybody the same.

[Heath]

Oh, no, he's fine.

[Adam]

Certain people, certain receivers get bad at 29. Some of them get bad at 30. Most of them, by 32, hit the wall.

[Heath]

What elite player, though? I can't think of an elite player. I actually think. I did this research. An elite player that was. That just dropped off at age 30. We were talking about the best of the best here in Tyreek Hill. I can't think of anyone. I mean, Reggie Wayne. Yes. Reggie Wayne had his best season at age 29, and then he struggled a bit at age 30, he was wide receiver 14 per game, and he bounced back at age 31 at wide receiver 5 per game. Heinz Ward. This is just reading straight from my notes. Heinz Ward looked like he was in decline. At ages 29, 30 and 31, he averaged around 60 yards per game. But age 32 and 33, he went over a thousand yards and averaged 65.3 and 69.3 yards per game.

[Adam]

Yeah, and 65 yards per game is not going to convince me that Tyreek Hill didn't lose a step.

[Heath]

Okay? But this is Heinz Ward for those Pittsburgh Steelers, not Tyreek Hill for these Miami Dolphins. That.

[Adam]

Who are these Miami Dolphins?

[Heath]

Well, there. When two is healthy, they are. He's TUA is routinely among the top five in passing yards per game. One year, he led the NFL in passing yards per game. In fact, in total passing yards. So I'm going with Dwight here. I'm with new Adam Tyreek is going to be great this year. That's it. I'm planning my flag. Planning it. I'm a Tyreek Hill guy. He's wide receiver 10 right now.

[Adam]

You know, we, we've seen this. I'm just looking forward to seeing what NFL player has an awful off season next year that you hit your wagon to.

[Heath]

Offseason or full season?

[Adam]

Offseason off field.

[Heath]

Well, that's. Yeah, I hate that. I hate that. I hate that I'm backing this guy, but trying to win fantasy here. I think he's going to win a lot of people fantasy. All right. Anything you want to add, Dave? No, I said it all.

[Dave]

No, I. I think we're good.

[Heath]

Okay. All right, folks.

[Dave]

I don't know if you said it all.

[Heath]

I said. I said a lot. I will talk to you tomorrow on Fantasy Football Today. Draftathon. Go donate. Let me give you that URL one last time. It is tinyurl.com 2025fft we'll see it Paramount Podcasts.

[Dave]

You found your ultimate NFL draft destination.

[Heath]

Get ready for with the first pick, part of the CBS Sports Podcast Network, join hosts Ryan Wilson and Rand Karthon twice a week for the most insightful draft analysis out there. Over the next several weeks, we're diving deep into the biggest questions facing all.

[Adam]

32 NFL teams, scouting the top college.

[Dave]

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[Heath]

And giving you front office insights you.

[Dave]

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