Projections Show! Projecting Total Plays, Pass Attempts and Touchdowns (07/02 Fantasy Football Podcast)

Summary

Fantasy Football Today – Episode Summary: Projections Show! Projecting Total Plays, Pass Attempts and Touchdowns (07/02 Fantasy Football Podcast)
Release Date: July 2, 2025

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Introduction and Theme
In this episode of Fantasy Football Today, host Adam Azer, along with analysts Dave Richard and Heath Cummings, delves deep into the intricacies of projecting total plays, pass attempts, and touchdowns for the upcoming NFL season. The primary focus is on understanding how offensive volume impacts fantasy football performance and identifying which teams are poised to dominate based on their projected play counts.

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Volume Metrics and Fantasy Impact [02:54 – 05:07]
Adam Azer introduces the episode by discussing the significance of offensive volume—encompassing pass attempts, rush attempts, total plays, and touchdowns—and its correlation with fantasy football success. He references a theory, potentially originating from Joe Bryant over a decade ago, which suggests that high-volume offenses are more favorable for fantasy players. Azer states:

“I have them projected for the second most touchdowns in the NFL this year... which shows that it's possible to say they're going to be worse without saying they're going to be bad.”
— Adam Azer [05:07]

Heath Cummings supports this by analyzing the correlation between offensive volume and scoring, noting that over the past six years, half of the seasons showed a strong correlation between high play counts and high points. However, he points out anomalies like the Cleveland Browns, who had the most plays yet scored the fewest points last year.

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Team-Specific Projections [05:07 – 15:40]
The discussion shifts to specific teams and their projected offensive volumes:

• Las Vegas Raiders: Projected to lead in total plays with an estimated 1,136 plays per game, benefiting from Chip Kelly's coaching style.
• Cleveland Browns: Averaging 1,140 plays per game over the last three years, despite subpar quarterback performance.
• Philadelphia Eagles: Positioned as the gold standard with over 1,100 plays per game under Nick Sirianni.

Dave Richard emphasizes caution regarding the Raiders, suggesting that Coach Chip Kelly's previous stints indicate potential volatility in offensive strategies. He states:

“I think it's a little dangerous to assume that Chip's going to be the exact same type of play caller that he was in his first stint in the NFL.”
— Dave Richard [11:17]

The analysts also discuss teams expected to run fewer plays, including the Panthers, Packers, and Rams, attributing this to factors like young quarterbacks and inefficient offensive strategies.

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Wide Receiver Analysis on Low-Volume Teams [23:08 – 37:28]
A significant portion of the episode examines the performance and prospects of wide receivers in offenses projected to have low pass attempts:

• Garrett Wilson and Zay Flowers: Both players face challenges due to their teams' limited passing volumes. Cummings notes that only a handful of wide receivers have thrived in low-volume offenses over the past 12 years, highlighting the difficulty in securing top-tier fantasy rankings under such conditions.

  “There's a lot of people there who can catch the ball and, and really keep the lid on Zay Flowers getting to even like seven touchdowns.”
  — Dave Richard [28:43]

• A.J. Brown and Chris Olave: Discussed as potential exceptions, with Brown maintaining decent performance despite limited pass attempts and Olave being a consideration based on projected targets and offensive strategies.

Heath Cummings remarks on the rarity of wide receivers breaking into the top tiers from low-volume offenses:

“It's hard to see him staying healthy... Zay Flowers is right now on Fantasy Pros. I think I saw him as wide receiver 29.”
— Heath Cummings [25:38]

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Quarterback Efficiency and Offensive Strategies [34:00 – 45:34]
The conversation shifts to quarterback performance and its impact on offensive efficiency:

• Lamar Jackson (Baltimore Ravens): Highlighted for his exceptional red-zone efficiency, throwing 50% of his red-zone passes for touchdowns—an unprecedented stat since 2000. However, his overall touchdown rate outside the red zone is scrutinized.

  “Lamar Jackson had a 50% touchdown rate in the red zone. So if you're over 30, that's insane.”
  — Heath Cummings [43:09]

• Aaron Rodgers (Philadelphia Eagles): Discussed in the context of low-volume pass attempts and its effect on receivers' fantasy viability.

Adam Azer underscores the importance of total plays in assessing quarterback performance and fantasy projections:

“I think volume matters because he did all these great things throwing the football.”
— Dave Richard [45:39]

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Trade Analysis and Player Recommendations [47:08 – 55:03]
The episode concludes with a segment on strategic team management and player valuations:

• Darren Waller (Miami Dolphins): Analyzed as a potential acquisition, but concerns about his age (33), injury history, and previous performance (compared to Johnny Smith) are raised. Dave Richard advises caution, emphasizing Waller's declining performance and high injury risk.

  “I don't think it's going to be me. I think I can find other tight ends and other players in general I'd rather have late.”
  — Heath Cummings [54:33]

• Player Drops and Roster Moves: The analysts discuss potential roster adjustments, suggesting dropping underperforming players to make room for prospects like Waller, though consensus leans towards retaining current reliable players over taking risks on aging tight ends.

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Notable Quotes with Timestamps

• Adam Azer [05:07]:
  “I have them projected for the second most touchdowns in the NFL this year... which shows that it's possible to say they're going to be worse without saying they're going to be bad.”

• Dave Richard [11:17]:
  “I think it's a little dangerous to assume that Chip's going to be the exact same type of play caller that he was in his first stint in the NFL.”

• Heath Cummings [23:08]:
  “It's hard to see him staying healthy... Zay Flowers is right now on Fantasy Pros. I think I saw him as wide receiver 29.”

• Heath Cummings [43:09]:
  “Lamar Jackson had a 50% touchdown rate in the red zone. So if you're over 30, that's insane.”

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Conclusions and Takeaways

The episode underscores the critical role of offensive volume in fantasy football success, emphasizing that teams with higher play counts generally offer more consistent and higher fantasy outputs. However, the analysts caution against over-reliance on this metric alone, highlighting exceptions and the influence of coaching strategies, quarterback efficiency, and player health.

Key takeaways include:

• Prioritize High-Volume Offenses: Target players from teams projected to have above-average play counts for more reliable fantasy performance.

• Evaluate Quarterback Impact: Recognize how quarterback styles and efficiency, especially in red zones, can significantly affect player projections.

• Assess Wide Receiver Viability Carefully: Players from low-volume pass offenses may require deeper analysis to justify their fantasy rankings, with few exceptions.

• Be Cautious with Aging Tight Ends: Consider the risks associated with older tight ends like Darren Waller, balancing potential upside against injury and performance decline.

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Final Thoughts

Fantasy Football Today provides a comprehensive analysis of the upcoming NFL season's offensive dynamics, equipping fantasy managers with the insights needed to make informed decisions. By understanding the interplay between total plays, pass attempts, and touchdowns, listeners can better navigate their drafts and weekly lineups to gain a competitive edge in their leagues.

Transcript

[Adam Azer]

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[Dave Richard]

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[Heath Cummings]

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[Adam Azer]

This is Fantasy Football Today from CBS Sports.

[Heath Cummings]

What a play. Can you believe this?

[Adam Azer]

No, I can't.

[Dave Richard]

It's time to dominate your fantasy league.

[Heath Cummings]

Off to the races and he stays on his feet. This is gonna go the distance.

[Adam Azer]

Now here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie and Heath.

[Heath Cummings]

Turn up the volume. We're talking about volume heavy offenses, maybe those that aren't going to run a lot of plays on the other end of the spectrum here and what it means for fantasy welcome to the show on Wednesday, July 2nd. Hope you're getting ready for a very fun weekend. July 4th is on Friday. No show on Friday but we'll be back. We have a show tomorrow. A mailbag tomorrow. Email us at fantasy footballbs icon that is the letter I fantasy footballbsi.com you can also leave an Apple podcast question. I do have some of those to read as well. Leave a five star review on Apple Podcast. I am Adam Azer with Dave Richard and Heath Cummings. What a fun conversation we had before the show. Here's the gist of it. What was the best decade of your life? Was it. You can't. Like, it's not gonna be your first 10 years. Was it 10, you know, was it 11 through 20, 21 through or no? I guess it'd be 10 through 19, 20 through 29, your 30s, your 40s. What was the best decade of your life? Leave a comment. But Heath, what's. Give me the overall theme of today's show and why it matters.

[Adam Azer]

Wait, I was getting ready to answer the best decade of my life. So the overall theme of today is looking at team volume, whether that is pass attempts, whether it's rush attempts, whether it is total touchdowns or total plays. There was an old. I think it was. I think it might have been Joe Bryant that wrote it, but it might have been somebody else back at football guys more than a decade ago that had a theory of fantasy football that was just eliminate the suck.

[Heath Cummings]

Yeah.

[Adam Azer]

Like, don't draft those.

[Heath Cummings]

Well, I'm out of here then.

[Adam Azer]

See you guys on those teams that are going to score 31 touchdowns, like I might project one team this year to do. Or the teams are going to run 950 plays, just draft high volume, high good football team players.

[Heath Cummings]

I think it's a great idea. But the volume thing I spent, I didn't really find a super strong correlation necessarily between high volume and high points last year.

[Adam Azer]

I think that's more of a PPR discussion. Yeah, just catch volume creates a lot of PPR opportunities. I think what you'll look through, especially when you look at the teams that have run a lot of plays, is it's not always teams that score a lot of points. A lot of times it's teams that just go five yards at a time over and over and over and over again and don't have the big plays.

[Heath Cummings]

I wouldn't say that there was no correlation. I looked at the last six years and I would say in three of the six years there was a pretty strong correlation between teams that ran a lot of plays and teams that scored a lot of points. Last year being one of them. But ironically, the team that ran the most plays last year was the Cleveland Browns, and they scored the fewest points. But after that, it was Detroit, they were number one in points. Philadelphia, they were sixth. Dallas was 25th, Washington fifth, Tampa Bay fourth. So that's four of the top six teams in plays finished top six in scoring. I would call that a pretty strong correlation. All right, so we'll get into that. And are the Ravens the most interesting team in terms of volume and what it means for fantasy. Are they up there? At least?

[Dave Richard]

They'd be up there.

[Heath Cummings]

Yeah.

[Adam Azer]

Yeah, I think. I think the Lions are probably more interesting because of the Ben Johnson discussion and how. I mean, maybe we should just start with this. Probably the most surprising thing I found from going through some research for this show I have. I've talked a lot about the step back that I'm afraid the Lions are going to take without Ben Johnson and Ragnow. I have them projected for the second most touchdowns in the NFL this year. I have them projected for 16 fewer touchdowns than they scored last year. They had 68. I don't predict project anybody for more than 53 this year. And so that just kind of shows that it's possible to say they're going to be worse without saying they're going to be bad.

[Heath Cummings]

Well, how many. Do you know how many they scored in 2023. It was in the 50s and they still had the number one ish top three tight end. Saint Brown had a huge year, but they didn't have much from Jameson Williams that year, if I recall. Right, that was Saint Brown was wide receiver three overall. He was wide receiver seven per. Oh, no, sorry. I'm looking at last year. He was even better. He was wide receiver three overall in 2023 as well. And he was wide receiver four per game at 20, almost 21 points per game. But yeah, Jameson Williams didn't contribute much that year. I think that was kind of the difference. And.

[Adam Azer]

Well, and I think Jameer Gibbs was five points per game worse.

[Heath Cummings]

Right? Gibbs? Yeah. Well, yeah, Montgomery. That was Gibbs.

[Adam Azer]

Montgomery was even worse per game. I think he was still top 15, but he was 14.8.

[Heath Cummings]

Yeah. All right. I mean, yeah, it's a pretty. It's an interesting theory you've got. You're the low guy on the Lions. It's gonna. It's gonna be a constant thing that we bring up, really, I think throughout the course of the next couple of months as we get into draft talk. All right, so Dave, you want to stay on that? You want to add anything to this?

[Dave Richard]

No, I want to keep going. But as we move along, I've got my data portal open and would love to see if we can find some stats from last year to help support the projections that Heath gives or maybe even if not provide context, maybe a counterpoint.

[Adam Azer]

Yeah, that would be yes. And I, I told Dave this also, like going through this process is something in past off seasons I've done probably a little bit earlier, but I've been a little more Dynasty focused this summer and so I haven't as much. So I was just glad to go through this and see like, are there some places in my projections where I can't justify what I, what I've done?

[Heath Cummings]

Right. Okay. So I'm, I'm gonna, we got. I want to talk about Darren Waller actually and just give a little bit of context and what he might be able to bring to the table for the Dolphins. He's actually good. Article on CBSSports.com he is the third star tight end in the last, I don't know, let's say 10 years to unretire. Can you name the other two?

[Adam Azer]

Rob Gronkowski.

[Heath Cummings]

Yeah, Gronk. Yep. Who unretired. He retired at the age of 29. I believe Darren Waller is going to be 33 in week one. And the other who unretired, he retired at like, I think he retired after his age 34 or 5 season.

[Adam Azer]

Jimmy Graham.

[Heath Cummings]

I hope I didn't miss Jimmy Graham. Jason Whitten. Jason.

[Dave Richard]

Oh yeah, did come back.

[Adam Azer]

Yes, I remember you liked him a lot more as an announcer.

[Heath Cummings]

After one wildly successful season in the Monday Night Football booth, Jason Whitten decided to come back for two more NFL seasons. All right, but let's stay on this topic. Why don't we just talk about volume here and what else did you find he as you did this exercise with your projections and volume.

[Adam Azer]

Yeah, I thought, I mean I went through and gave you way more information, I think than we're going to be able to use on this show when you're talking about total plays. I think an interesting thing that Dave has some context on as well was like how many plays do I project for various offenses and why. And the three highest offenses I had in terms of projected total volume, in terms of total plays were the Raiders, which might sound a little bit strange, but chip Kelly's in four seasons, his team now they were all 16 game seasons. So you've got to use a 17 game pace. But at 11:36 offensive plays. Second is Cleveland Kevin Stefanski. Over the last three years, their offenses have averaged 1140 offensive plays. And that's with some pretty bad quarterback play even when Deshaun Watson was healthy. And then third, the Eagles have kind of been the gold standard really since Nick Sirianni got there of being over 1100 plays per game. And just to put that in context, the league median last year was 1061. And so that's four, four more plays. Four to five more plays. Per game than league median.

[Heath Cummings]

I love the Raiders aspect of this here. They were 12th, I think, in plays last year. So. Yeah, good.

[Adam Azer]

I, I think at the very least it helps to explain why I'm probably higher on Bowers and Genti than Dave and Jamie are, and why I'm less concerned with Chip Kelly maybe being more run heavy than they were last year. Because 55 pass rate on 1120 plays is a lot more, is just, maybe just as appealing as 58 if you're only running 1060.

[Heath Cummings]

Dave, any thoughts? And I would also add that Chip Kelly was a pretty successful coach in terms of just points per game, you know, for, for the four seasons, I believe he was a coach. Anything to add, Dave? So he's saying that the Raiders, Browns who are always up there in most place, and Eagles who are again always up there, will, will run the most plays. That's Heath's projection.

[Dave Richard]

Well, as far as Chip Kelly goes, I think it's a little dangerous to assume that Chip's going to be the exact same type of play caller that he was in his first stint in the NFL. He got fired from two jobs doing what he was doing. He went back to college after that. I went and looked and saw what he did at ucla. His pace was not fast at all. He was never higher than 22nd in the FBS. In offensive snaps, he was as low as 78th. So that's not necessarily great. In his time of possession per play was always outside of the top 90. So I, I think he, he realized that he could still slow things down maybe when he needed to. I mean, it's not like UCLA was a haven for, for offense and even like the last three years that he was there, 21, 22, 23. But he did step it up in 2024 when he went to Ohio State. It was for just one year. He obviously had better talent around him, guys that knew what they were doing. Ohio State was 9th in the FBS in total plays last year with 988, 23rd in time of possession per play. So maybe he put his foot on the gas just a little bit more in that season and they played a lot more than the typical FBS team because of the college football playoffs. I, I, I think that Chip Kelly has definitely modified his offense and also his philosophies as he went back to college, and he's probably going to apply a lot of that to the NFL. If he feels like the Raiders would benefit from a slower pace, I think you can expect him to do that. Whereas when he got to Philadelphia. It was nope. We're doing it this way. All gas, no breaks. You're gonna play a ton of snaps and we're gonna try and run the defense off the field on every single possession. I, I think he's learned to kind of harness that a little bit. And we just have to wait and see what type of team the Raiders have and how confident Chip Kelly is in Geno Smith running an up tempo offense or if Ashton Genti can handle getting two carries within the span of 25 seconds of game clock. I mean, these are the types of things that we just have to wait and see on. And so that's why I would be a little hesitant to assume that the Raiders are going to run more plays than anybody else in the National Football League, especially since some teams have basically gone unchanged and they're gonna, they're gonna be easy to predict. Philadelphia is a great example. I know that they just changed offensive coordinators and Kellen Moore, he's known for running a ton of plays, so maybe that's going to happen in New Orleans. But as long as Sirianni's been there, Heath, you mentioned it. I think that's a team that's probably a safer bet. I think Detroit is fairly safer as well than Las Vegas running a ton of plays. But it does help the point that The Raiders were 12th in overall plays last year. They were tied for 12th and that means that they probably have a shot to be top 10, maybe top five. That's pretty good.

[Heath Cummings]

Yeah. We should talk about teams that we don't expect to run a lot of plays and we'll do that in a moment. First, I have a couple of things I want to promote. The draftathon season has begun. We have already had two purchases of mailbag questions. So we're gonna do a mailbag next week and we'll read 10 of your questions. $50 donation to St. Jude. You can, you know, that's. Sorry, let me give you the URL before I keep going here, it's tinyurl.com 2025fft tinyurl.com 2025fft go there and you'll see you can bid on mailbag questions having your mailbag question answered on the air. So it's $50 for, for each question and we will read it on the air. So that's.

[Dave Richard]

May I give some trivia before the break?

[Heath Cummings]

Yes. But there was one other thing I wanted to promote real quick.

[Dave Richard]

Okay, go ahead, Go ahead.

[Heath Cummings]

Monday afternoon, 1pm Eastern. We are having A special show on CBS Sports Network. So we will see you there. 1:00pm Eastern Monday afternoon, CBS Sports Network, one hour of fantasy football today. Go ahead, Dave.

[Dave Richard]

This team finished bottom five in plays, total offensive plays and top three in offensive touchdowns.

[Heath Cummings]

Baltimore.

[Adam Azer]

Buffalo.

[Heath Cummings]

Buffalo.

[Dave Richard]

You got it. I was gonna say name that team after the break, but you guys beat me to it and you answered correctly. I'm very proud of both of you.

[Heath Cummings]

Thank you. Yeah, we talked about that a lot. The Bills running with the second fewest plays or the third fewest plays last.

[Dave Richard]

Year, whenever it was fifth fewest place.

[Heath Cummings]

Oh, fifth fewest place.

[Dave Richard]

Third most touchdowns. Fifth fewest plays.

[Heath Cummings]

Oh, such an idiot. All right, we'll be right back on fantasy football today.

[Adam Azer]

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[Heath Cummings]

Good question in the chat from Papinski. Are Aaron Rodgers teams consistently at the bottom of this metric? We're talking about plays run.

[Adam Azer]

They are consistently. I think that highlights one of many conflicts between the history of Arthur Smith and the history of Aaron Rodgers. Aaron Rodgers likes to throw the ball 10 times a game to his top wide receiver. Arthur Smith likes to throw to his wide receivers as little as possible. Aaron Rodgers would like to take the entire play clock on every single snap to see exactly what everyone in the stadium is doing before he chooses what he wants to do. Arthur Smith has been very the past two years above average in terms of pace and the number of plays he runs. So I have the Steelers projected pretty much league average in terms of total plays because I really have no idea how those two interact. But it will probably be entertaining, if nothing else. The three teams I have for the lowest total plays are the Panthers, the Packers and the Rams.

[Heath Cummings]

And what's behind those projections?

[Adam Azer]

Mostly, I mean, for the Panthers, it's a combination of what happened last year and what has and the fact that I don't think they're a very good offense. The packers and the Rams I think Stafford's just a little bit slower and lafleur may be influenced by Rogers at the beginning of his coaching career, but lafleur has been a little slower as well or lower play total at least.

[Heath Cummings]

Does it matter to you with the packers and the Rams? They should be pretty damn good offenses.

[Adam Azer]

I don't think it matters with the Rams as long as they stay as concentrated as they've been. It's always been almost all their targets go to two guys and Kyron Williams handles all the rush attempts and you don't have to worry about running a low number of plays. I think it matters with the packers and told in terms of what we've talked about a bunch of and that is the fact that in the past nobody's gotten a lot of targets.

[Dave Richard]

Backers were tied for seventh fewest in total plays per game. They were fifth in rushes per game at 30.9. And a lot of that was obviously the running backs. It's not like Jordan Love used his legs a lot last year when he had that knee injury in week one. I think they took that card out of his hand. But that, that does concern me a little bit. For the receivers, that's a good example of slow pace team that likes to run the ball a lot especially. I mean they succeeded running the ball a lot last year so they just kept doing it. I would assume that they will be competitive when they run the ball. I don't know if they'll be quite as good, but they'll still be good. But that does make me a little bit nervous about the overall target volume opportunities for their wide receivers. And yes, they're tight end too.

[Adam Azer]

And the packers, well, that last year was lower than the two prior years in terms of plays run. But, but I said 1061 was a league median last year. They've not been above 1052 in the last three years.

[Dave Richard]

Do you think that that number was lower because of the games that Malik Willis started?

[Heath Cummings]

Well, he just said two years, three years in a row.

[Adam Azer]

Three years in a row they've been below league median.

[Dave Richard]

So maybe, maybe below league median isn't that big of a deal compared to being like bottom five, bottom ten. And they're right in between those two areas. Were they lower last year than they were the year prior?

[Adam Azer]

Yes.

[Heath Cummings]

Okay.

[Dave Richard]

So I wonder if that was. Well, Malik Willis played a little bit the year before too. I don't know. Maybe I'm just making stuff up that doesn't make sense for this particular argument, but ultimately it does. This is an Idea of the type of thing that does make me nervous about packers wide receivers.

[Heath Cummings]

Okay.

[Dave Richard]

And thus packers quarterback.

[Heath Cummings]

Yeah, I remember they, they got super run heavy last year, but that doesn't necessarily mean fewer plays. The jets, the jets, for example, ran the third fewest plays in the NFL and they were basically the most pass heavy team. They had the fewest running back, they had the fewest carries in the league.

[Adam Azer]

And just to kind of show how I normalize this like I, I didn't project Chip Kelly's offense to run as many plays or, or Kevin Stefanski's to money. They're such outliers over their last three years that I, I drew it back a little bit, maybe to Dave's point, not far enough. A lot of people asking in the chat why the Panthers are so low. They ran, they ran 993 offensive plays last year.

[Dave Richard]

I think a lot of that had to do with their defense being terrible. Stopped in the second half of games. They lost time of possession in the second half frequently.

[Adam Azer]

I'm giving them a lot. Somebody is definitely going to, I have them last at 10:40. Somebody's definitely going to run fewer plays than that. But this is not predictive enough to where you don't want to normalize it some.

[Heath Cummings]

Yeah, defense is another thing that I don't know how big of an influence it has. The Jaguars and the Panthers ran the fewest plays in football last year. They did not have good defenses. The jets were third fewest. I mean they didn't have a horrible defense or anything like they weren't bad.

[Adam Azer]

Chargers. They had Rogers.

[Dave Richard]

Yeah.

[Heath Cummings]

Chargers fourth fewest. Chargers had a good defense for most of the year. Bills fifth fewest. I have a feeling offensive tempo kind of matters more than defense.

[Adam Azer]

The Bills are an example of something and I guess the Chargers had a little bit of this with Quentin Johnston, but I remember there was a time I think maybe Mahomes best year or second best year. The Chiefs were kind of like the Bills last year. They scored a lot of points and didn't run a lot of plays. And that's because they scored from 50 or 60 yards away a lot of the time.

[Heath Cummings]

Sure. Yeah.

[Adam Azer]

Now they, now they're the opposite. And they throw 600 passes that go.

[Heath Cummings]

4 yards a piece to the point.

[Dave Richard]

That I, that I tried to make. The Panthers were 31st in the league in offensive place. The Jaguars were 32nd. Those two teams were also first and second respectively in opponent plays per game. Panthers 67.9 opponent plays per game. Jaguar 66.2. Opponent points per game.

[Heath Cummings]

So Heath last Let's wrap this segment up here. When it comes to Chuba Hubbard and Teteroa McMillan, are you lower on them because of the projected play volume? You have Carolina with the third fewest, fewest, fewest place. Fewest place. Sorry.

[Adam Azer]

Yeah, probably Tet. Yeah, because I have him at a 21 target share. But that would be worth more if they were projected to run more plays. As it goes back to the grandma's apple pie discussion and not probably quite as much as Chuba, because I'm not really worried about somebody cutting into his workload at running back unless he's injured. Like, I think if he stays healthy, he'll have a high enough percentage of the running back touches that he can overcome that.

[Dave Richard]

Well, I think Carolina will probably be closer to league average in offensive plays. Their defense definitely got better.

[Adam Azer]

Yeah, I've got them.

[Dave Richard]

I. I don't mind saying that Carolina won't be toward the bottom of this list.

[Adam Azer]

I've got them running. I've got him running four more plays per game than they did last year.

[Dave Richard]

Yeah, there you go.

[Heath Cummings]

But still lasts, right? Yeah. By the way, you said you're not worried about Chuba Hubbard splitting. Neither is Alex Zeitlow. Zitlo. I apologize of the Charlotte Observer. He thinks Chuba's carries will decrease a bit, but he'll still see the overwhelming majority of the touches. That's one news item for you there. All right. One thing he said that I note is that it's it's hard for wide receivers in full PPR and in half PPR to finish in the top 12 overall if their offense is bottom five in pass attempts. It has happened six times over the last 12 seasons where we've had a wide receiver finish top 12 overall in half or full PPR on an offense that's bottom five in pass attempts. Now if you expand that to bottom six pass in pass attempts, you actually get nine wide receivers in the last 12 years bottom five in past attempts. Six wide receivers in the last 12 years have finished top 12. So that's especially relevant for Garrett Wilson, I think for Zay Flowers. Your thoughts on on this discussion here, what this means for wide receivers if their offense is not going to throw a lot bottom five and pass attempts.

[Adam Azer]

Well, I would assume the I've only got the bottom three in my projections, but I would assume at least like two of the exceptions to that ruler are the AJ Brown, whose Eagles once again project for the third few. So I've got the the Ravens at 486, which shouldn't surprise anybody. The jets at 499. That one I think you have to be a little bit less certain about because it is a new offensive system and it's Justin Fields who has hard. Had a hard time putting 17 games together and then the Eagles at 505. Not surprising. But the. The other thing that's in Common is all three of these quarterbacks may be in the top five in quarterback rush attempts.

[Heath Cummings]

A.J. brown is not one of them from what I see because he was not top 12 last year. And the other two years, I don't think the Eagles were were bottom five in pass attempts. But I will double check this.

[Adam Azer]

This does show though why, why I'm lower on Garrett Wilson. And as I said yesterday, I'm not comfortable with it.

[Dave Richard]

I've got AJ 13th in PPR points per game.

[Heath Cummings]

Last, not per game. This is total points though. And he was. Because you have to do that when you're talking about overall pass volume here. He was. He was wide receiver 19 overall last year because he only played 13 games. The year before that, Philadelphia was 21st in past attempts and the year before that they were.

[Dave Richard]

The problem with saying, with making it. The total points discussion is did he finish 1923 because he only played 13 games or because the Eagles didn't throw the ball as much as the rest of the league?

[Heath Cummings]

Well, he finished 13th per game. It was a they. So they've gone from 20.

[Dave Richard]

You said 19th in total points.

[Heath Cummings]

Yeah, 19th. Okay, so listen, so the Eagles were 21st and 23rd in pass attempts per game or 23rd and 21st. I did it out of order in A.J. brown's first two seasons with the team last year I think they were last. If they weren't last, they were close to last. They were, yeah, last in the NFL and he had his worst season as an Eagle. Right.

[Dave Richard]

So double check 16.7 PPR points is still pretty good.

[Heath Cummings]

Yeah, it was. It was. But pass volume mattered for him. It can't. Can't act like it didn't. So that was the first time that they were bottom five. Again. It was pretty drastic going from basically 22nd in past attempts per game in the first two years to 32nd. That's a big drop. Now we have heard that they are going to be different this year. They're going to throw the ball more basically. But I think this is worth noting. I mean we saw. This is proof right here that it did hurt A.J. brown that they did not throw nearly as much. Not didn't hurt him that much. But he lost, lost about a six tenths of a point per game and was not a top 12 wide receiver per game. So if he's going to live up to being a top 15, 16 overall pick, I do think they're going to have to throw more than they did last year. And I think they will. But. Yeah, but we talked about Garrett Wilson, but I think Zay Flowers is another guy because I was just watching some Zay Flowers tape this morning. He's good. So good.

[Dave Richard]

Yes, he is.

[Adam Azer]

Yes.

[Heath Cummings]

But I don't know. I mean, could he be. He scored. They, they threw 41 touchdowns last year. He caught four of them. That's amazing. But I went and I looked and like, if you, if you kept Zay Flowers catches and yards from last year, if somebody wants to actually have it right here. So it was 74 catches, 1059 yards, four touchdowns. If you kept his catches and yards and gave him eight touchdowns last year and you gave him only 16 games instead of 17 games because he got hurt early in week 18 and you, then you take Zay Flowers's point points per game, you still don't have a top 20 wide receiver in any format.

[Adam Azer]

Yeah.

[Heath Cummings]

So I love Zay Flowers. This, he's, he's devonte Smith. Right. Like, he's so good.

[Dave Richard]

Right.

[Heath Cummings]

The pass volume. And the pass volume is even worse usually for Baltimore than it is for Philadelphia. So, Dave, where are you at on Zay Flowers? Like, I think like Jacob Gibbs loves him. We all love him as a talent. But where you at on Zay Flowers?

[Dave Richard]

This is yet another example of a player who is super talented. There's no debating it, but he's just in a spot that stinks for fantasy football because he's on a team that usually doesn't throw the ball very much. And for whatever it's worth, they kept Mark Andrews and they brought in DeAndre Hopkins, Rashad Bateman. They signed to an extension. There's a lot of people there who can catch the ball and, and really keep the lid on Zay Flowers getting to even like seven touchdowns, much less more than that. I think what he did last year is a fair expectation, but I don't think anybody's drafting him with the hope that he becomes a top 12 fantasy wide receiver. I think if you're drafting him, you're drafting him as a number three wide receiver because of the situation, not because of the talent. And if he finishes top 24, then that's kind of a bonus. But I wouldn't Take him as one of the first 24 or maybe even top 30 wide receivers off the board.

[Adam Azer]

I, I think that the thing with Flowers is probably like the conversation gets even more interesting in Dynasty because he's a 24 year old wide receiver who we all agree is really, really good at football.

[Heath Cummings]

Yeah.

[Adam Azer]

And so do you want to speculate that and hope that at some point in his career he ends up in a better situation than this one? And it's hard to say a better situation this one because the Ravens are one of the best offenses in the NFL, but the way they run their offense is not conducive to elite wide receiver production.

[Heath Cummings]

He really just needs more red zone, green zone, end zone targets. He does not get targeted there. He had, he had a 25.4% target share, which was, I want to say eighth or ninth best among wide receivers, but it only translated to 117 targets. But when they get near the end zone, that target share just plummets. So again, four touchdowns out of 41 for the team is crazy low. You got to figure that'll that'll improve.

[Adam Azer]

Well.

[Heath Cummings]

The percentage will improve, but the touchdowns will come down. He's not, they're not gonna throw 41 touchdowns again.

[Adam Azer]

Yeah, it might come down 10.

[Heath Cummings]

Yeah, exactly. He's wide receiver 31. In. In the only fans ADP right now on CBS, here are some guys going ahead of Zay Flowers. Would you take them ahead of Zay Flowers? Devonte Smith.

[Dave Richard]

Yes, yes.

[Heath Cummings]

Teto McMillan.

[Dave Richard]

As of now, no. But once we see McMillan clearly the lead guy in Carolina, I would say.

[Adam Azer]

Yes, I'll say Zay over Cortland Sutton.

[Heath Cummings]

Jameson Williams.

[Dave Richard]

Yeah, I'll take Williams.

[Adam Azer]

I'll take Williams, but it's basically a coin flip.

[Heath Cummings]

And George Pickens.

[Dave Richard]

I'll take Pickens.

[Adam Azer]

I'll take Zay.

[Heath Cummings]

Oh, look at this, Heath. Look at that. Got a little credit for the joke. Thank you. Thank you, Portick. If Zay Flowers is Really wide receiver 31 and ADP and on on CBS, he is right now on Fantasy Pros. I think I saw him as wide receiver 29. I would love that. What I don't want is him to get closer to 24. So I do like, I do want to have some Zay Flowers on my team. He might be an injury away from having, you know, Mark Andrews injury or something like that. Away from having a huge Mark Andrews.

[Adam Azer]

Didn'T get any targets last year.

[Dave Richard]

I think Derek Henry injury.

[Heath Cummings]

He did.

[Dave Richard]

In the end, that's the guy who has to leave.

[Heath Cummings]

But even but even before they had Derrick Henry there, there's only one season where Lamar Jackson's throwing more than 29ish passes per game. You know they're still so run heavy, right?

[Dave Richard]

I don't know if they'll be as run heavy with Justice Hill and Keaton Mitchell at running back. Am I forgetting somebody who's in that backfield that's got some power to them?

[Adam Azer]

They have a rookie they drafted last year, so he's a second year player, not a rookie anymore. Yes.

[Dave Richard]

But yeah, small guy too. So they might just rotate three smaller guys and that would absolutely mean more passing volume. I think it's Derek Henry. I think he's the contingency guy. I don't want it to happen. And he's, he's also the reason why almost nobody other than Mark Andrews gets red zone and end zone targets in Baltimore. Because when they're inside the five, it's. It's Derek Henry a couple of times and they score almost every time.

[Heath Cummings]

You want to hear a kind of a quirky stat on Lamar Jackson? I have some more. Lamar Jackson. I was inspired yesterday to just dig into Lamar Jackson. In the last six seasons, that's the Lamar Jackson era, basically. Not counting as rookie year, Baltimore has been 7th, 13th, 30th, 20th, 15th and 7th in running back carries. The two years they were 7th in running back carries. Right. The other years they were 13th or lower. The two years they were seventh in running back carries were 2019 and 2024. And those were the two years that Lamar Jackson averaged 30 fantasy points per game and threw 30. They, oh, both years they threw 41 touchdown passes. It's just kind of a weird, almost oxymoronic stat that the two years that they were the highest in running back carries per game were Jackson's best years. Okay. Anyway, am I wrong about that? I feel like they didn't throw 41 touchdowns in 2019. I know they did last year. I think it was 36. Yeah, yeah, sorry.

[Adam Azer]

It was his two best touchdown rate seasons. And listen, I just finished up my bus column and got to put the best, one of the best quarterbacks in football on it. And Lamar Jackson because He's got around 280p and he's the first quarterback being drafted. He's got like that's, he's worth that and more if he scores 30 fantasy points per game. But as Dave indicated yesterday, that's not going to happen again. Probably. So don't draft quarterback that early. Even Lamar Jackson.

[Heath Cummings]

Sorry, what? The stat I had was he was on Pace for 41 touchdowns both years because he threw 36 touchdowns in 15 games in 2019. All right, back to the show here, I think is anything else you want to talk about in terms of past volume?

[Adam Azer]

No, I don't think so.

[Heath Cummings]

All right, so let's take a break one more time and we'll wrap up the discussion on volume and talk about maybe a little strength of schedule. Talk about Darren Waller, some more quirky Lamar Jackson stats. And we'll be right back after this.

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[Heath Cummings]

All right, Heath, I'm going to throw it to you. Anything else you want to discuss on this topic?

[Adam Azer]

I think that the, the touchdowns are probably good because, like, if we're, if we're really talking about avoiding those teams that are not going to score a lot and one of these will be controversial and one of these will be instructive. So the, the fewest touchdowns projected in my projections, the Saints are like, there's a lot of teams close to the Falcons and Titans. At 35, the Saints are four touchdowns fewer than any other team. And I don't even feel bad about that. I, it's like generally I don't like to project outliers like that, but it, it probably applies more to Alvin Kamara and anything other than full ppr. And Chris Olave, who's never scored more than five touchdowns in a season.

[Heath Cummings]

Who do you think scores more touchdowns? And these two wide receivers are very close in adp. Zay Flowers or Chris Olave?

[Dave Richard]

Ze Flowers scores more touchdowns. I'll say Olave.

[Heath Cummings]

Can you justify taking Olave over flowers?

[Dave Richard]

Yes.

[Adam Azer]

I don't have them very close, so no, I can't. I, I strongly prefer flowers.

[Dave Richard]

You're not asking me if I would do that. You're asking me if I could justify it.

[Adam Azer]

Justify it, Dave?

[Heath Cummings]

Yeah, justify it. And before you do that, you have flowers 31st and you have Olave 36th. Go ahead.

[Dave Richard]

So even I'm, I'm not going to buy into what I'm about to say. You're just asking me to justify it. But it's food for thought. Kellen Moore's offenses are typically high paced. They are probably going to be playing from behind a lot. This is a team with a defense that I think is fading quite a bit and they do have a good offensive line. I think Tyler Shuck is at least capable as a thrower and Olave figures to lead this team of targets. I don't think they'll be quite as run heavy like ever. So there is an opportunity here for Olave, provided that he stays healthy, to see a solid dose of targets. Could be in the neighborhood of seven per game, could have some weeks with double digits. And I, I still think he's a very talented player. It's just he's been saddled with mediocre quarterback play for the entirety of his career. That's going to continue here. But maybe some garbage points will help him get over the hump and certainly find the end zone. More than what Zay say Flowers almost said. Zay Jones. He will score more touchdowns than say Jones, but I think he can outscore Zay Flowers as well based on volume and you know, just a lot of passing in an up tempo, maybe by necessity, up tempo offense in New Orleans.

[Heath Cummings]

All right, let's talk about the Falcons being on this list. The fewest touchdowns you have the Saints with the fewest touchdowns at 31 and the Falcons and Titans 35. 35 and a half touchdowns. Yeah. So the controversial one was the Falcons.

[Adam Azer]

Yeah. And I, I think like the common denominator you see between these three teams is they basically all are going to have first year starters. We got a couple of games out of Michael Pennix last year. But I've talked about this a lot. Young quarterbacks, rookie quarterbacks in particular, so often second year quarterbacks as well struggle with touchdown rate. Generally most the good ones move past that. Trevor Lawrence hasn't yet but still could. But we're talking about three, three and a half percent touchdown rates for quarterbacks and that makes a huge difference in a projection. So maybe Bijan scores 15 or 20. And then this looks silly, but Pinnocks, even when he looked good last year, didn't throw touchdown passes. Cam Ward's a rookie. Don't have high expectations for him in that regard. And whoever the Saints start, same thing. So this is really about if you think Michael Pennix is going to be better than the average first year starter. Maybe you think that year on the bench means you don't have to worry about it and he's gonna be like my homes and just be great in this, in year two, then you would want to go against this. But I'm, I'm pretty pessimistic about the total past touchdowns for the Falcons this year.

[Dave Richard]

And just for those of us that might be mathematically challenged, when you say a three and a half percent touchdown rate, that basically means 3.5 touchdowns every 100 pass attempts, correct?

[Adam Azer]

Right. If you want to use 500 pass attempts, which I probably have them for a few more than that, that's 17 and a half passing touchdowns, which is awful.

[Dave Richard]

Yeah.

[Heath Cummings]

Gosh, it's really hard.

[Dave Richard]

It can be better than that, but not a lot better.

[Heath Cummings]

It's really hard to, to, to justify B. John Robinson as the number one running back, which we all have. If we think the Falcons are going to score the second fewest touchdowns in the NFL.

[Adam Azer]

Well, I mean, they didn't score a lot more than that last year. And Bijan just scored 40% of their touchdowns.

[Heath Cummings]

But he wasn't, you know, he was, wasn't number one. He was what, two or three points worse than Gibbs and Barkley per game. So they were 20th in scoring, I think, last year. No. 17th in points per game.

[Dave Richard]

17Th in offensive points per game, 39 total offensive touchdowns. It's a pretty far cry from what the Lions did at number one, but it's much closer to league average.

[Heath Cummings]

Oh, man.

[Dave Richard]

Just one more thing. Adam Bijan got off to a slowish start to the season. And it wasn't really until week six when the Falcons said we should probably just give this guy the ball a lot. And they did. Yeah, he had 20 or more touches in all but two games. From week six on, he averaged almost 23 PPR points per game. That's the guy we're trying. That's the guy we're hoping for when we take him 101 or 102.

[Adam Azer]

And, and just to kind of put the touchdown rate into context because I know Kirk Cousins wasn't very good last year. Kirk Cousins has a career 5.1% touchdown rate and at a 4% rate last year, which a 4% rate for a rookie would be very good or at least above average.

[Heath Cummings]

I think Cousins was a little better than he gets credit for because first week of the season he was horrible. Looked like he should retire. He started playing better now. Two games against the Bucks helped, but he hurt his shoulder and he played, I think three games with an injured shoulder and was awful. And then he got pulled. But he, you know, he mentioned that after the season that he was playing with the hurt shoulder. So I don't know how much of a difference. I mean, I think it made a big difference. And just. Just in case he gets traded, keep it in mind, he might not be as washed up as we think. So there have only been two running backs in the last at least 10 years, I think nine years I did, who have finished as RB1 overall on an offense that was 13th, that was lower than 13th in scoring, and that was Saquon Barkley as a rookie in 2018 and Christian McCaffrey the year after. In 2019. Their offenses finished 16th and 20th in scoring, respectively, and they both had at least 91 catches. So they are the only RB1s on below average offenses since 2016. It can be done. It can be done. All right. All right, I think we wrap it up. We're good.

[Adam Azer]

I'm good if you're good.

[Heath Cummings]

Dave, do you want to save, set strength of schedule for a different show or.

[Dave Richard]

That's fine with me.

[Heath Cummings]

All right, cool. Let me give you some news and notes, but also a couple of Lamar Jackson stats that I found very interesting. Lamar Jackson had a 50% touchdown rate in the red zone. So if you're over 30, that's insane. 50%. I went back and looked through the year 2000, and this was by far the highest red zone touchdown rate I've seen. Lamar Jackson. 50% of his red zone passes were touchdowns. And then I saw this stat this morning on ESPN, Jackson Target. Last season, Jackson targeted players who averaged 4.26 yards of separation, the highest in the league. And I thought that was really interesting. You know, he's throwing to wide open receivers a lot. I think that their scheme in the last two years might just be really good because his two best yards per attempt seasons have been in the last two years. Now, I think Zay Flowers helps that with his yak ability. Rashad Bateman had a really good year last year, but the Ravens are just creating wide open receivers and super efficient in the red zone. I don't even know if there's any fantasy analysis here. I just thought it was really interesting to see what the Ravens did last year.

[Adam Azer]

Related note they're my projected for the most touchdowns in the NFL. My projections this year.

[Dave Richard]

Yeah, it makes sense. I'm curious how many of the touchdowns came on play action because if you're looking like you're giving the ball to Derrick Henry, I'm pretty sure the defenses will key in on that. And then you pull it out of his belly and you drop back and look over the field. Yeah, there's going to be some spaces wide open for these guys to catch a ball and make a play after. I wish the receivers did more with it. Like it's, it's a great stat and, and obviously Lamar was amazing last year, but where were the receivers that finished in the top 15? You know, it's, it's, it's just weird. And maybe that's just an example of why volume matters because he did all these great things throwing the football. Just imagine if he had thrown it as much as, you know, Joe Burrow or some. Anybody like that that throws the ball 600 times a season and Thomas put.

[Adam Azer]

Up the, the most touchdowns here. Just a good time for anybody who wasn't here at the start. Lions. I'm not totally the low guy on the Lions because I'm the high guy on Jared Goff. I think QB19 by ADP. QB12 in my rankings they're still pretty. You're higher.

[Dave Richard]

So I think I have 11 if.

[Adam Azer]

52 touchdowns is awesome and the second best in the NFL in terms of my projections. It's also 16 lost touchdowns from last year.

[Heath Cummings]

So by the way, Dave, I don't know how many of the touchdowns came on play action, but since Todd Monkin became the offensive coordinator, Lamar Jackson has actually had a huge drop in his play action percentage. He's gone from a guy who's been about 28, 29% to 24% with Monken thought that was interesting because a lot of times people just think it's so simple. Just put men in motion more and just do more play action. Those are the things that just create so many more points. But it has not been the case for, for the Ravens the last two years. He also had the most yak per completion.

[Adam Azer]

We had an interesting volume question in the chat.

[Heath Cummings]

Oh, hit it.

[Adam Azer]

Who can bench press more? Adam Heath or Dave? And Johnny was quick with the answer. Dave, easy. Didn't you see the commercial?

[Heath Cummings]

Yeah. And by the way, have you. Did I not share my bench press philosophy with everybody? When I go, when I bench Press my slow.

[Adam Azer]

That was really the main point of me bringing that up is I wanted to know when was the last time that you did bench press?

[Heath Cummings]

High school? No, a few times in my early 20s. But Heath, my bench press philosophy is a simple quote that I try to live my life by. Raise the bar. That's it. You know, just, just always trying to raise the bar. That's all. That's just get better and better every day. No, I don't know what I would bench press. I don't know. The bar is what, 45 pounds?

[Adam Azer]

I think you could do that.

[Heath Cummings]

I could do that. I don't know if I could double that.

[Adam Azer]

I bet you could put some tens on there.

[Heath Cummings]

I hope so. I would say Heath could bench press.

[Adam Azer]

More than Dave, I would guess. Dave? I. I don't know. Dave, when was the last time you did bench press?

[Heath Cummings]

I.

[Dave Richard]

Other than I always try and do a max out bench press on my birthday and I think last year my max out was. This is embarrassing but 165. I did one rep of 165. It's way down from where I was when I was in high school. Obviously.

[Adam Azer]

Yeah.

[Dave Richard]

So hopefully I can do that again this year.

[Adam Azer]

I would guess if we did like a 145 as many times as you can, I would win that one just because I do bench press semi regularly with my 15 year old. But he's a 15 year old so he's not bench pressing a lot of weight.

[Dave Richard]

Okay, well, 15 play action touchdowns last year for Lamar Jackson. So less than half of his touchdowns. Three of the four touchdowns that Zay Flowers had last year came on play action.

[Heath Cummings]

Oh man, he's so good. Okay, some news and notes, really not much, but the Dolphins getting Darren waller for a 2027 conditional seventh round pick from the Giants. And they do. The Dolphins gave up a sixth round pick in 2026. So Darren Waller, I mean, can he not do what Johnny Smith did last year? I guess that's my question. Smith had a terrific finish to the season, but I don't think he can do that. But can he just do the overall numbers of John who Smith, which I would say they were fairly attainable. Heath, what do you think you didn't see when we first saw. When the news first broke, you didn't seem too into this idea of Darren Waller having much of an impact for the Dolphins.

[Adam Azer]

I, I think that you might be minimizing what John Smith did last year.

[Heath Cummings]

Just the 888 catches, 884 yards. Now the eight touchdowns, I would say no chance basically. But 88 catches, 884 yards in 17 games on 111 targets. That's 52 yards per game. You think Darren?

[Adam Azer]

I think the touchdown seemed the most possible. Oh, like maybe he just happens to fall into the end zone eight times. I am moving more and more towards the Dolphins are going back to their old tight end philosophy which is mostly ignore them.

[Heath Cummings]

The other thing that that John New Smith did last year is be an extremely low a dot guy 4.9 yard ADOT. Dave, you talk about this all the time. I want to say I give this stat last month or whatever but something he had the the most receptions behind the line of scrimmage by a tight end in a really long time. I feel like anyone could do that basically. But yeah, what do you think about 50 yards per game for Darren Waller? Do you think that is attainable?

[Dave Richard]

I don't think the Dolphins want that to be attainable. I think I, I this is to Heath's point that he just made. I think the Dolphins are trying to get away from that and use their explosive playmakers a little bit more and if circumstances arise where they don't feel as comfortable throwing to their wide receivers and excuse me, and Devon HN a lot more then yeah, they can always fall back on. Let's just throw a little dink and dink passes to our tight end and have them make a play after the catch. I'd feel a lot better about it if it was John who because Darren Waller is going to be 33 years old soon after the season, didn't play last year, hasn't averaged double digit PPR points per game since 2021 and has all kinds of injury concerns. So he, he might take a couple of screens, he'll get clobbered a couple of times and who knows if he'll be as as into it as he once was and if he'll even be healthy enough. I'm not going to fault anybody for taking him with a late round pick, but I don't think it's going to be me. I think I can find other tight ends and other players in general I'd rather have late.

[Adam Azer]

I'm just about ready to put HN ahead of Bijan, honestly. But like Darren Waller's last 21 games, which stretches all the way back to the beginning of the 2022 season, he has not scored as many fantasy points as Jono Smith scored last year.

[Heath Cummings]

Yeah, he's always hurt. He's just like always hurt. He was on the really bad teams. I mean, the Dolphin, that Giants team, he stunk. They stunk. So he'll be 33. Through his age 32 season though, Darren Waller has run 2,201 routes. Travis Kelsey, through his age 32 season, ran 4,723 routes. This is including playoffs for both of them. So he's run half the amount of routes that Travis Kelsey did through their age 32 seasons. I just bring that up because of, you know, he's 30, going to be 33, which is kind of old. He's 13 months older than George Kittle. We have no issues with Kittle. He's got very little tread on the tires his career has obviously been.

[Adam Azer]

Part of the reason is because he's always hurt.

[Heath Cummings]

Yeah. But the other part of the reason is one, he retired and missed a year. Two, he was suspended for more than one season for like one full season, and I think four games. He dealt with substance abuse problems when he was younger. So he really hasn't been on the field that much for a guy who's 33 years old. I'm just trying to make the case here for Darren Waller. I don't know that age is the, is the biggest issue here as well. He's a young 33 in my eyes anyway, because he doesn't have a lot of wear and tear, but it. We haven't seen him be all that good.

[Adam Azer]

It's an interesting thought about, Are you younger if you've played a lot more football but stayed healthier, or are you younger if you've suffered a bunch of injuries?

[Heath Cummings]

I don't know. I don't know the answer to that.

[Dave Richard]

I feel like you're younger if you, if you got a late start to your career and your, your odometer is low.

[Heath Cummings]

Oh, I'm sorry. Let me, let me make one last point. This is where I was going. All right, so let's compare what Johnny Smith did in 17 games with the Dolphins last year to the 17 game pace for Darren Waller with the Giants in 2023.

[Dave Richard]

Now, this will be interesting.

[Heath Cummings]

And I removed one game where he played like 12% of the snaps. Okay. For John who, it was 111 targets. For Waller, it was 111 targets. For John who was 88 catches for Waller, 79 for John who, 884 yards for Waller, 840 for John who, eight touchdowns for Waller, two touchdowns. So that's what I was saying. Like, I don't know why he can't do that. If they choose to throw the ball to the tight end been another.

[Adam Azer]

Yeah. I think you're taking the.

[Heath Cummings]

He's.

[Adam Azer]

He's a young 32 a little bit.

[Heath Cummings]

Too far, but is 33 old. If he's a great tight end, which he was. Is 33 even old? It wasn't old for Kelsey. It wasn't old for Tony Gonzalez. There's not a lot of tight ends that get to this age.

[Dave Richard]

Those are great ones, though. I don't think Waller qualifies as being even close to that universe.

[Heath Cummings]

He doesn't. It's hard to see him staying healthy.

[Dave Richard]

But it's hard to see him staying healthy. There's no guarantee he's going to have the type of volume that John who had last year. John who almost had that volume out of necessity because of the hand the Dolphins were dealt.

[Heath Cummings]

Yes.

[Adam Azer]

Did you add Waller and Baked Burger at him?

[Heath Cummings]

Oh, I forgot about that. No, dude, I don't think anyone did. I'll put in a bit like in.

[Dave Richard]

A dynasty in any of these leagues that are tight end premium. Of course. It makes sense. It makes sense even in the non tight end premium league to take the shot on Waller.

[Adam Azer]

I. I wanted to, but I have Trey McBride and Isaiah likely, and I wouldn't drop Zach Ertz for Darren Waller. I'm not dropping. What?

[Heath Cummings]

No, I wouldn't either.

[Dave Richard]

No, I might.

[Heath Cummings]

I am going to drop.

[Adam Azer]

You have a lot of bad players. You can easily do it.

[Heath Cummings]

Should I drop Khalil Herbert for him?

[Adam Azer]

I would be okay with that.

[Heath Cummings]

I don't know. I mean, there's really no point. I'm not going to win the.

[Adam Azer]

Can you give us, like, your top five potential drops? Because I think it'll be a fantastic way to end the show.

[Heath Cummings]

Yeah, sure. I'm not going to drop Mike Kasiki or Gunner Helm for him. So that would leave us with Damian Martinez, Jalen Coker, Khalil Herbert, Sean Tucker, Marshawn Lloyd, Deshawn Watson.

[Dave Richard]

Oh, well, there you go.

[Adam Azer]

Now, these guys are all like. And I want to tell people the Baked Burger league is kind of deep league, but it's not one of those deep dynasty leagues where all of these guys should be rostered.

[Dave Richard]

Well, poker was dropped for Waller in my Sportsline Dynasty league.

[Heath Cummings]

I'm gonna drop Khalil Herbert.

[Adam Azer]

There you go.

[Heath Cummings]

Is he even on it? Oh, he's on the Colts. Yeah, yeah, yeah. No, I don't think I want to drop him. You know, I'm fine. My starting tight ends, Jake Ferguson. We're good. All right. Actually, it's Elijah Royle. We're good. Oh, we'll talk to you tomorrow with a mailbag on fantasy football today. Thanks so much for watching, listening. See you then. Paramount Podcasts now streaming on Paramount.

[Dave Richard]

Plus, the suspect is trying to evade us.

[Heath Cummings]

You're walking into the unknown. We had somebody out there starting fires for the heck of it. It's dark, there's no road signs. We need the help of Air1. When there's chaos below.

[Dave Richard]

Low, he's bailing on foot. This individual did not want to be caught.

[Heath Cummings]

They go high, the helicopter sees you.

[Dave Richard]

He never realized we were above watching him the whole time.

[Adam Azer]

An all new season of Chopper Cops, now streaming on Paramount Plus.