Fantasy Football Today – Episode Summary: Projections Show! Projecting Total Plays, Pass Attempts and Touchdowns (07/02 Fantasy Football Podcast)
Release Date: July 2, 2025

Introduction and Theme
In this episode of Fantasy Football Today, host Adam Azer, along with analysts Dave Richard and Heath Cummings, delves deep into the intricacies of projecting total plays, pass attempts, and touchdowns for the upcoming NFL season. The primary focus is on understanding how offensive volume impacts fantasy football performance and identifying which teams are poised to dominate based on their projected play counts.

Volume Metrics and Fantasy Impact [02:54 – 05:07]
Adam Azer introduces the episode by discussing the significance of offensive volume—encompassing pass attempts, rush attempts, total plays, and touchdowns—and its correlation with fantasy football success. He references a theory, potentially originating from Joe Bryant over a decade ago, which suggests that high-volume offenses are more favorable for fantasy players. Azer states:

“I have them projected for the second most touchdowns in the NFL this year... which shows that it's possible to say they're going to be worse without saying they're going to be bad.”
— Adam Azer [05:07]

Heath Cummings supports this by analyzing the correlation between offensive volume and scoring, noting that over the past six years, half of the seasons showed a strong correlation between high play counts and high points. However, he points out anomalies like the Cleveland Browns, who had the most plays yet scored the fewest points last year.

Team-Specific Projections [05:07 – 15:40]
The discussion shifts to specific teams and their projected offensive volumes:

• Las Vegas Raiders: Projected to lead in total plays with an estimated 1,136 plays per game, benefiting from Chip Kelly's coaching style.
• Cleveland Browns: Averaging 1,140 plays per game over the last three years, despite subpar quarterback performance.
• Philadelphia Eagles: Positioned as the gold standard with over 1,100 plays per game under Nick Sirianni.

Dave Richard emphasizes caution regarding the Raiders, suggesting that Coach Chip Kelly's previous stints indicate potential volatility in offensive strategies. He states:

“I think it's a little dangerous to assume that Chip's going to be the exact same type of play caller that he was in his first stint in the NFL.”
— Dave Richard [11:17]

The analysts also discuss teams expected to run fewer plays, including the Panthers, Packers, and Rams, attributing this to factors like young quarterbacks and inefficient offensive strategies.

Wide Receiver Analysis on Low-Volume Teams [23:08 – 37:28]
A significant portion of the episode examines the performance and prospects of wide receivers in offenses projected to have low pass attempts:

• Garrett Wilson and Zay Flowers: Both players face challenges due to their teams' limited passing volumes. Cummings notes that only a handful of wide receivers have thrived in low-volume offenses over the past 12 years, highlighting the difficulty in securing top-tier fantasy rankings under such conditions.

  “There's a lot of people there who can catch the ball and, and really keep the lid on Zay Flowers getting to even like seven touchdowns.”
  — Dave Richard [28:43]

• A.J. Brown and Chris Olave: Discussed as potential exceptions, with Brown maintaining decent performance despite limited pass attempts and Olave being a consideration based on projected targets and offensive strategies.

Heath Cummings remarks on the rarity of wide receivers breaking into the top tiers from low-volume offenses:

“It's hard to see him staying healthy... Zay Flowers is right now on Fantasy Pros. I think I saw him as wide receiver 29.”
— Heath Cummings [25:38]

Quarterback Efficiency and Offensive Strategies [34:00 – 45:34]
The conversation shifts to quarterback performance and its impact on offensive efficiency:

• Lamar Jackson (Baltimore Ravens): Highlighted for his exceptional red-zone efficiency, throwing 50% of his red-zone passes for touchdowns—an unprecedented stat since 2000. However, his overall touchdown rate outside the red zone is scrutinized.

  “Lamar Jackson had a 50% touchdown rate in the red zone. So if you're over 30, that's insane.”
  — Heath Cummings [43:09]

• Aaron Rodgers (Philadelphia Eagles): Discussed in the context of low-volume pass attempts and its effect on receivers' fantasy viability.

Adam Azer underscores the importance of total plays in assessing quarterback performance and fantasy projections:

“I think volume matters because he did all these great things throwing the football.”
— Dave Richard [45:39]

Trade Analysis and Player Recommendations [47:08 – 55:03]
The episode concludes with a segment on strategic team management and player valuations:

• Darren Waller (Miami Dolphins): Analyzed as a potential acquisition, but concerns about his age (33), injury history, and previous performance (compared to Johnny Smith) are raised. Dave Richard advises caution, emphasizing Waller's declining performance and high injury risk.

  “I don't think it's going to be me. I think I can find other tight ends and other players in general I'd rather have late.”
  — Heath Cummings [54:33]

• Player Drops and Roster Moves: The analysts discuss potential roster adjustments, suggesting dropping underperforming players to make room for prospects like Waller, though consensus leans towards retaining current reliable players over taking risks on aging tight ends.

Notable Quotes with Timestamps

• Adam Azer [05:07]:
  “I have them projected for the second most touchdowns in the NFL this year... which shows that it's possible to say they're going to be worse without saying they're going to be bad.”

• Dave Richard [11:17]:
  “I think it's a little dangerous to assume that Chip's going to be the exact same type of play caller that he was in his first stint in the NFL.”

• Heath Cummings [23:08]:
  “It's hard to see him staying healthy... Zay Flowers is right now on Fantasy Pros. I think I saw him as wide receiver 29.”

• Heath Cummings [43:09]:
  “Lamar Jackson had a 50% touchdown rate in the red zone. So if you're over 30, that's insane.”

Conclusions and Takeaways

The episode underscores the critical role of offensive volume in fantasy football success, emphasizing that teams with higher play counts generally offer more consistent and higher fantasy outputs. However, the analysts caution against over-reliance on this metric alone, highlighting exceptions and the influence of coaching strategies, quarterback efficiency, and player health.

Key takeaways include:

• Prioritize High-Volume Offenses: Target players from teams projected to have above-average play counts for more reliable fantasy performance.

• Evaluate Quarterback Impact: Recognize how quarterback styles and efficiency, especially in red zones, can significantly affect player projections.

• Assess Wide Receiver Viability Carefully: Players from low-volume pass offenses may require deeper analysis to justify their fantasy rankings, with few exceptions.

• Be Cautious with Aging Tight Ends: Consider the risks associated with older tight ends like Darren Waller, balancing potential upside against injury and performance decline.

Final Thoughts

Fantasy Football Today provides a comprehensive analysis of the upcoming NFL season's offensive dynamics, equipping fantasy managers with the insights needed to make informed decisions. By understanding the interplay between total plays, pass attempts, and touchdowns, listeners can better navigate their drafts and weekly lineups to gain a competitive edge in their leagues.