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Host 1
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Adam Azer
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Jake Seeley
This is Fantasy Football Today from CBS Sports. What a play. Can you believe this? No, I can't. It's time to dominate your fantasy league. Off to the races and he stays on his feet. This is going to go the distance. Now here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie and he.
Adam Azer
All right, welcome to the show. It is Monday, July 14th. I'm Adam Azer with Jamie Eisenberg. We have an awesome guest today. We have Jake Seattle of the Athletic. He is going to be going to be participating in the FFT Open. Tell you more about that later. But right now it is time for quarterback tears. So Jamie's got his quarterback tears published. Check them out on the website CBSSports.com fantasy football actually, wait Is that it? Did I get that wrong? CBS sports.com fantasy. Just go there and then you can find everything. Jamie, what's going on?
Jamie Eisenberg
You're on top of your game today, buddy.
Adam Azer
I am not. I am frazzled. I have all thrown off. Jake, thanks for being here. What's up?
Jake Seeley
Of course I'm not frazzled. You text me last night on a Sunday, and I'm here first thing on a Monday. At least Jamie and I have. Things get got together. Gotten together. There you go. As I just proved I'm not.
Adam Azer
Made me look a little bit better there, honestly. You know, Thomas Schaefer, our producer, is my rock, and he was out all last week, and I just. I'm throwing off. But he's back today, so I should be getting back on track. Welcome back, Thomas Schaefer. Hope you had a good week off. I think Dave and Heath are out for most or all of this week, so we're to bring in guests off.
Jamie Eisenberg
Today, and then he's back the rest of the week. You're just really, really struggling.
Jake Seeley
So basically you can't do your job without Thomas is what you're telling me.
Adam Azer
No, but he's not on every show because he's got.
Jamie Eisenberg
He does his Dynasty shows. Hi. Heath Cummings does Dynasty podcast. Maybe you remember that.
Adam Azer
I know, but he's not on all of our shows is what I'm saying. Oh, yes, he is.
Jamie Eisenberg
What happened?
Adam Azer
He's not on Friday show. He's not on Friday show.
Jamie Eisenberg
That's the. You went. You went to some fancy birthday party this weekend, and I think everything just went crazy.
Adam Azer
You know, people are like, I drank too much last night. It was. Man, I ate too much last night. I haven't recovered from that. But anyway. All right, Jake, tell us how we can find your material.
Jake Seeley
Over at the Athletic. Basically, everything is mostly out at this point, including my projections, which you can play with. You can customize them and be like, hey, I listened to everything Jake said with you guys, and he's a dummy. So I'm going to go in there and mess with his projections, and you can see how the. The rankings will change for your league.
Adam Azer
Excellent. That's great. I have a trivia question for you guys. I think Jamie's going to know it. I say this stat kind of somewhat frequently. Over the past two seasons, there have been three running backs who lead the NFL with. With four carries of 60 or more yards. Can you name them?
Jake Seeley
Barkley being one.
Adam Azer
Barkley is one.
Jake Seeley
Kenneth Walker, two.
Adam Azer
Now, so again, it's. We're looking for the three running backs who have four carries of 60 or more yards now, not enough carries. Cook now the guy who leads leads the NFL and carries over the last two years.
Jamie Eisenberg
Eric Henry.
Adam Azer
Derek Henry, Saquon Barkley. Now, he already said Ken Walker, man, what's with you today? You're off today. And the third one is relevant.
Jake Seeley
Still.
Adam Azer
Most are somehow Jerome Ford. Jerome Ford. A little bit more than half of the carries that Henry and Saquon Barkley have had over the last two years. Henry and Saquon, Yeah, they are the two actually. They lead the NFL and carries over the last two years. Ford, not even close. But they. Jerome Ford's got this thing where they just rip off a 60 yard run every now and then. We'll talk about him. Let's do it right now. Let's go to our news and notes. Then we'll get into the quarterback tiers. So Quinshawn Judkins, Cleveland's rookie running back, was arrested on a domestic violence and battery charge. Okay, so I can just tell you that over the weekend I had my Scott Fishbowl draft. It's still going. It's ongoing. We're in round 12 out of 22. But in round 11, both Dylan Sampson and Jerome Ford were picked. Sampson was the first pick of round 11. And then I took Jerome Ford with the third pick of round 11. The next running back off the board was Javante Williams. So maybe I regret that, but I wanted to get. Javante was so far down in the rankings, I thought maybe there was a chance to come back to me. But Jerome Ford, it's a half a point per carry. It's two and a half points per catch. But Jamie, if you were drafting today, how would you treat the Browns running backs?
Jamie Eisenberg
I mean, we still don't know all the situation that's happening with Judkins. So he still would be the first one that I would draft. I do think that if he's going to miss any time so suspension or whatever happens with this thing that benefits Ford, I think if everything is. If they're all available come week one, then I would take Sampson over Ford. Second, I think Ford's only going to really benefit if Judkins or Sampson missed significant time. I think he's going to have opportunity to play clearly, but his upside is significantly capped if both rookies are available. So I. It's almost like Judkins and Sampson are on one side of the equation and. And Ford's on the other. And so it's like anybody misses time. Ford steps up anybody if they're healthy. So, you know, we had this discussion, Adam, when you were. You were saying something about the way I drafted the. I took Judkins in that draft and then I took Samson. You said you would have taken Ford.
Adam Azer
Yeah.
Jamie Eisenberg
I just think that Ford is more of like a break glass in case of emergency guy and they're going to try and get Judkins and Samson opportunities to be their primary top two running backs.
Jake Seeley
Yeah.
Adam Azer
That draft obviously was before the arrest. Jake, how do you see the Browns backfield right now?
Jake Seeley
Similarly, we still have to wait and see. I mean, it could be as small as a game or two. It could be six, eight plus. It's just, it's. We're speculating. We have no idea right now. But I agree with Jamie in the one aspect of like, if you're looking for the lead, like what would be the lead of that backfield? It's Judkins or Ford, not really Sampson. But that. What I agree with Jamie here is that means that Sampson is involved no matter what. I think Sampson's kind of a Justice Hill, Rashad White, smaller Rashad White white type of complimentary piece, that he's going to be out there with somebody, even if it's like Jalen Warren where it's 45% of the touches, but there's somebody else with him. That if Sampson's out there and there is no Judkins, then we're interested in Ford. But if Judkins is out there at all, I think Ford is the backup plan for Judkins, as Jamie said.
Jamie Eisenberg
And we got a comment in the chat which we talked about last week when the report came out that one of the outlets in Cleveland said Ford is the starter. Yes, that could absolutely be the case. No matter what happens with Judkins when they open camp, Ford may be the guy who gets the first carry with the starters. Makes total sense. But eventually I think he's going to get not completely phased out, but. Phased out. Yeah.
Adam Azer
And it's usually what happens with rookie running backs unless they're drafted in the. In the first half of the first round. You know, week one is typically not when they become the starter, but it doesn't take very long. The report was not that Jerome Ford is the starter. It was just the writers speculating Jerome Ford likely to be the starter in training camp, maybe even the first week or two of the season.
Jamie Eisenberg
I do think, though, in dynasty leagues, if you can get Jerome Ford cheap, his price tag went up. Might as well because of the Judkins things. But you should be trying to acquire Jerome Ford if you can, because there's a, there's a very clear path now to him being the starter early in the season.
Jake Seeley
And I would say, like in redraft, the way I was approaching this before this whole situation came out, and I think you'll agree, I don't want to put words in your mouth, Jamie, but was basically like, it probably will be more of a committee than we like to see to start the season. And even if Judkins is a lead, maybe everybody's involved in that. Like you let somebody else draft Judkins in the fifth, sixth round, get frustrated and go after him in week three because it's going to probably take a few weeks.
Jamie Eisenberg
That's been their M.O. i mean, Stefanski used multiple backs. You know, as great as Nick Chubb was, there was Kareem Hunt there still taking work away. It just was, you know, that that's why Nick Chubb was so special. He was able to be so, so accomplished with, you know, coming off the field more than we liked. Yeah.
Adam Azer
Well, in five seasons with Kevin Stefanski, the Browns have ranked second, third, third, third and 32nd in running back carries. So they usually, when they have a good running game, they usually run the ball a lot. They've tried to transition to a little bit more of a passing team, but last year just nothing was working for them.
Jamie Eisenberg
Well, it fell apart week two of the 2023 season.
Adam Azer
Yes. Next news item, the Bears signed GM Ryan polls to a three year extension. Cool. San Francisco running back Kyle Jus check their fullback. He said Christian McCaffrey looks incredible. He looks so healthy. He looks so explosive. Jake, where is Christian McCaffrey in your.
Jake Seeley
Rankings back half of the first round? If I'm at the 10th pick, maybe even ninth, I'm strongly considering it. I referenced the projections I talked about earlier and I even gave him 90% of the workload from two years ago, which was also the night he was on the same workload pace last year before he got hurt that he was from the previous season. So even 90% and he's still number one by a sizable gap because he's Christian McCaffrey on the 49ers. So I bring up the 90% to say that like it would take 75, 80% Christian McCaffrey to not be the number one running back. If of course, he plays 16, 17 games, but 16 games. That's why the risk is associated with him not being a top four three for running back back half of the first round is because now we're baking in some of that risk where we weren't last year with the first pick.
Adam Azer
All right, Jamie, let me talk to you. Let's talk about Juwan Jennings. Here is Adam Schefter tweeting that Joanne Jennings wants a new contract or a trade. A little bit of a wild off season for the 49ers. So your thoughts on this?
Jamie Eisenberg
I mean, we got to see how it plays out. You know he, I think the reports that he's going to follow IUK's path and be a hold in so he's going to report and then just not take part in any activities. And if you recall, he was maybe setting this up. Who knows? I don't want to speculate on injuries but that he missed either OTAs or minicam, one of the two with a calf injury. So you know, is he actually hurt or is he just, you know, oh, I can't get out there because I'm waiting for something to happen and so we'll see how this plays out. I doubt the 49ers move on from him. They very much need him with Brandon Ayuk not being expected to start the season because of the knee injury. So will they maybe give him a boost in salary? You know the, the chef or story that came out was the John New Smith situation because it's very similar and smith got a 1 year 12 million dollar extension with the Steelers. You know, did the, the 49ers, you know, just rework Jennings deal and give him some added money. He's expected to make seven and a half million dollars this year. So you could see something like that easily happening. But I mean we've talked about this a lot. I don't know where Jake feels comes out on this, but like Pearsall and Jennings to me were very close to begin with because you know, Jennings has been sort of their third guy, their fourth guy, you know, he's, he did very well last year in, in certain spots when he got the chance to shine. We all remember that week three game when there was no Debo or Kittle and he destroyed the Rams, but he's been sort of there just, you know, backup plan for many years. And then the way that Pearsall finished the season and obviously the investment and the capital that they spent to draft him, this is easy to move Pearsall ahead of Jennings now for me.
Adam Azer
All right, just a few more news items. I want to get to the QB tiers. Someone said in the chat, can you guys talk about all the Second round picks that are unsigned. Yeah, very few have signed right now. One of them, Trey Harris, Chargers rookie wide receiver. He did not report to training camp I think. Was he a third round pick? He may have been a third round pick but he did not report to training camp. They're the first team to report to training camp. Second round pick, the Chargers, the first team to report to training camp. They're rookies. So this week you're going to get some teams with rookies reporting. In fact a lot of teams open up rookie mini camp, rookie training camp tomorrow. But the Chargers did it on the 12th and Trey Harris is not there. I don't really know what to make of it. It's just most second round picks haven't signed. It'll happen. Jalen.
Jamie Eisenberg
The biggest one obviously is Judkins because yeah, true. Now that he's dealing with this situation like how much of the Browns concerned about this and do they try to maybe get out of it?
Adam Azer
Jalen Waddle is working on his hand eye coordination. He said he was trying to move without the ball too much and let's see. Jacob Robinson of the Athletic says expect an offense heavy start for Travis Hunter. Which quarterback tier Jamie, do you usually find yourself drafting from.
Jamie Eisenberg
The tier of Mayfield, Nixon, Dak.
Adam Azer
That would be tier three one after.
Jamie Eisenberg
It with Fields, Kyler and Caleb.
Adam Azer
Tiers three and four Mayfield, Knicks DAC is tier three. Fields, Caleb, Kyler in tier four. Jake, how about you? Which tier do you usually find yourself drafting from at the quarterback position.
Jake Seeley
So my tier 3 is much larger than Jamie's so I'll kind of like I think the better answer might help because our tiers are going to differ throughout and I mean a lot of people's tears will differ is I either go first or last is if I I would love to get a top four or five quarterback if it happens to fall in what I consider value. I know some people's values will differ but if I don' get one of the top four or five then I'm waiting till the end game because I'm not going to take Baker who's in the same tier as Drake May or Kyler Murray is me. I'm not going to, you know so that's what I'm saying. I have a very large tier. I'm just going to wait till the end game, take a quarterback there because I'm not going to spend an 8th round pick when I consider the same value quarterback there in round 13.
Jamie Eisenberg
And just let's make it clear because we always need to that it's six points for passing touchdowns is what we go by as opposed to four. So that could alter how obviously people are viewing things. Right, right.
Adam Azer
Because Jake, yours are four point.
Jake Seeley
Yeah.
Jamie Eisenberg
Okay.
Jake Seeley
There's small differences.
Adam Azer
Yeah, sure. I don't, you know, we're going to do a quarterback preview in a few weeks, so I don't want to do the same show. Luckily for that show we'll, we'll have either Dave or Heath or, or both.
Jake Seeley
But unless they're on vacation.
Adam Azer
Yeah, right. For the rest of the week or one more day or whatever it is. To me, I mean, I love quarterbacks so much this year I don't even consider a strategy right now. It's just when it feels right. I'll take. I kind of like what you said, Jake. If one of those top five quarterbacks is there and it's just feels like this is the right. I don't love the other options. Bam. I'll take them if I have to. If I have to wait until, you know, two of my three last picks or something to take a quarterback, I feel like I can get, I can get by with that. It's just a super deep position and I will get into more of that in a moment. But more important matters at hand. We have now eclipsed the $2,000 mark. If you go to tinyurl.com 2025fft you can see the tracker. We're up to $2,261 that we've raised for St. Jude. The bulk of it will come when the FFT open spots are made available and that will be a week from today, probably sometime in the evening, you know, maybe in the 7pm range or something. I don't have an exact time yet, but we'll keep you updated. But go to tinyurl.com 2025fft and you can see what there is to bid on or to purchase. So we did the mailbag on Friday. We've got 10 more available every week for a Friday mailbag. Two of them have been purchased. But there are eight mailbag questions available to purchase for Friday and they are at $50 each. And now every week we're going to be doing a mock draft that you can be a part of. So if you want to be part of the mock draft on July 22nd at 7pm Eastern, that is next Tuesday night. So that's $50 per spot. And every week we're going to have a Featured spot for $150 where you get to be in the Mock draft. And an expert is going to grade your draft and, you know, give you when the draft's over, give you some extra, extra value there for your purchase. But again, it all goes to St. Jude. So be part of next Tuesday's mock draft or be part of our mailbag and stay alert for the FFT Open, which, Jake, thank you so much for. For being a part of this year. You're gonna have to feel fill out the Sealy division with 11 of your fanatics, but not the all in division.
Jake Seeley
Can't even, like, be the.
Adam Azer
It could be whatever you want. The all in division.
Jake Seeley
I love that.
Adam Azer
But thanks for appreciate so much you helping us out with this.
Jake Seeley
No, of course. I love helping every single year. And finally not finishing last in the St. Jude League, that we do the draft at that league because I refuse to take a kicker.
Adam Azer
It's so crazy, man. The stubbornness. I love it.
Jake Seeley
I love it.
Adam Azer
Hey, hot take here. Because you have Raphael on your shirt. And I was thinking about this the other day. Every kid's favorite Ninja Turtle is Raphael, right? I mean, like, it's got to be a solid 80%. 80%.
Jamie Eisenberg
Oh, I would totally disagree with that.
Adam Azer
Really?
Jake Seeley
I think it's Leonardo.
Jamie Eisenberg
Leonardo.
Adam Azer
Leonardo, yeah.
Jamie Eisenberg
What?
Adam Azer
He's such a goober. Like, there's nothing.
Jake Seeley
Or Michelangelo.
Adam Azer
All right, I'm doing a Twitter poll here. I'm just gonna say I'm generally curious.
Jake Seeley
The reason, like, I liked Raphael because he's kind of ornery and sarcastic and, like, that kind of humor, which was coming from my family up north. And I actually got stuck with it anyway. Like, I wasn't even allowed to choose when we were playing the arcade game. Like, well, you are Raphael. He actually has the worst weapons in the game because you got to get so close.
Adam Azer
Oh, gosh. I'm about to do a bunch of spell check here. Michael Angelo, I was going to say. He's such a bad influence for kids. That's the one injured, so he's such a liability. He gets them into trouble all the time. Like, it just. He's. He really needs to be reigned in.
Jake Seeley
Dude, do we need to go down this? I actually have, like, a signed copy comic of Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles, but he actually saves the day more often than not.
Adam Azer
But he starts all the problems, so the day wouldn't even have to be saved if it weren't for him to begin with.
Jake Seeley
You're thinking, like, just a 90s cartoon. Like, there's a lot more. We're not gonna do it. Everybody's just about to tune me out like up here comes the nerd.
Adam Azer
You don't have to say about Raphael. Sigh.
Jamie Eisenberg
Get it?
Adam Azer
All right, we'll be right back after.
Jamie Eisenberg
Oh my God.
Adam Azer
We'll be right back after this.
Jamie Eisenberg
Oh.
Adam Azer
Vote for us on Podcast Awards. I'll tell you about that later. We'll be right back after this. On Fantasy Football today, ready to level up?
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Adam Azer
Okay, welcome back. Tier one has five quarterbacks in it. Jamie, you went with Jackson, Allen, Daniels, Burrow Hertz in tier one and then tier two has one lonely quarterback, Patrick Mahomes. Why did you decide to make all five quarterbacks? Jackson, Allen, Daniels, Burrow Hertz in one tier?
Jamie Eisenberg
I thought about splitting them up, but I mean, you know, there's really when you look at a bunch of different rank lists, you can make a case that their order could go in a variety of different ways and depending on when they'll start to come off the board it wouldn't be a surprise if they're around apart, you know. So Burrow was the second quarterback last year in points per game and six points for passing touchdowns. Obviously Jackson and Allen have been so tried and true. Daniels is coming off an amazing season. You know, looking at Heath's rankings, he has them, he has him first. And obviously you know what you're getting from Hertz from a rushing perspective when he's got, you know, 713 rushing touch 613 rushing touchdowns almost every year of his career. So Hertz to me is closer to Mahomes just based on what we saw last year. But I think as we've sort of, you know, built our narrative on our show at least that Barkley is potentially going to have a step back from his production after all the work last year that the passing game may be a little bit better in Philadelphia and that should help Jalen hurts so I think all of them are clearly worth drafting as the I I think all of them are clearly worth being viewed as the potential QB1 this year based on how things can go.
Adam Azer
How do you see it? Do you see the five player tier also, Jake?
Jake Seeley
I do in six point if we were talking the four Burrow would be kind of in a tier by himself. That's how I have my rankings. Just because it's more reliant on his pure arm and not that he can't do it, It'll run for two or 300 yards but just the difference between those big four. So I'm with Jamie on this one so far we're starting off strong in the fact that we're lockstep in this. Honestly, I think you can make an argument that Lamar Jackson could almost be in a tier of his own. Like I know that they could all finish number one but I mean even if Lamar Jackson only threw for 32 touchdowns next year he would still far away be the number one whether it's four or six points. So I think there's a case for that. But I do have the same 5 burrow actually leaps jalen hurts if I switch my projections from 4 to 6 so that's why I'm with him on this actually I think our order is almost exactly the same. Jamie, I go Daniels, Allen. Outside of the other three do you.
Adam Azer
Have Jackson as QB1?
Jake Seeley
No. By far. It doesn't matter which format. He's got a 30, 40 point gap in both formats for me.
Jamie Eisenberg
Wow.
Adam Azer
I but Allen's been more consistent. I don't want consistency but no but Alan's also been elite. You know, Jackson's had the two seasons where he's hit 30 fantasy points per game and six point per passing touchdown leagues. I don't think Alan's ever gotten quite there. I think he's been close.
Jake Seeley
Right.
Adam Azer
But I think each of the three previous years Jack Allen's been better than Jackson. Like 20, 24 was Jackson by like.
Jake Seeley
A point, like a point per game? Like if I'm going to nitpick between points per game, it comes down and this is, I'm kind of leading this out because it's going to come into some of the other discussions we have later with other quarterbacks. Point per game means nothing to me. If you can make that gap three or four points per game, I'm going to take that chance. As in again, why I'm going to be talking about some of the risks I would take a quarterback later versus somebody that I just know is consistent. Like I probably would never have even a healthy two on my team. I just don't see him getting inside the top 10. Like that's kind of my point here is like I don't really care that you're consistent when we're talking about the same tier. If I'm with I'm in a tier, I'm going to take the guy who I think could jump out of that tier if that makes sense.
Adam Azer
Yeah, it does. I would say it's been more like a three, I think kind of like a three point gap between. So here's the problem with lamar Jackson in 2022 and 2023. He left two games mega early, scored almost no fantasy points and it brought down his points per game. The same thing happened to Josh Allen this year where he played one snap in week 18 and it dramatically brought down his points per game. So I'm looking at a website right now that has their points per game for every year of their career. It's kind of hard to compare them because you have to remove those games. But I do think it's been, I would say about three points per game and six point per passing touchdown leagues. Probably more like two in four point from 2021 to 2023 Allen over Jackson. So like the heights of Lamar Jackson are definitely better than the heights of Josh Allen. But Josh Allen, you know, was I think a clear number one guy over Jackson before. If we were having this conversation a.
Jake Seeley
Year ago, coming off the year before like was I think a different collection of talent too. So this is also pre Derek Henry which basically the tide rises all boats type of situation. I'm curious with Jamie, honestly thinks like, you get what I'm saying? Like, I'm not going to say you're stupid to have Josh Allen number one, but like, I just think if I'm going in this tier, if I'm grabbing a quarterback, I would go after Lamar Jackson before any. The other four even a second.
Jamie Eisenberg
I think the thing that, that Jake and I probably based on what he's saying agree upon is like this is the easiest position to shoot for the highest ceiling. And so like if you and, and you can make a case for either one, I mean, you know, they're, they're so awesome. Jackson just feels like with the coordinator change and the ability to throw the ball a little bit more in there, you know, you think about like the last three years, for example, like they bring in Zay Flower, they bring in Deandre Hopkins, you know, they're talking about giving Isaiah likely a little bit more of a role, which I think, you know, is, you know, a little bit of a boost from a player standpoint at this point compared to Andrews. But Andrew's still going to be such a good end zone target for him. Like there's, there's so many options here for him to continue to be successful. And you know, if you're just looking at the two like, okay, as Jake said, you're nitpicking. Well, Josh Allen's receiving cord just continues to get stripped away. Like, you know, you're talking about Elijah Moore as, you know, potential saviors. Like, that doesn't make me excited about Josh Allen. What makes me excited about Josh Allen is to your point, on his consistency because he's going to give you that rushing production. It doesn't matter who's around him, he's still been successful. So that's why they're one and two, you know, I know again you can make a case for Dan Daniels as Heath has, that maybe he takes a significant step forward in year two and that obviously is, is on the table, which is why I think he's in the top five and, and again the top three for at least the two of us. I'm sure for you as well, Adam, you know that he's up there with Burrow also in six points for passing touchdowns. So in this tier, like I want the guy who I think is going to be the best and in my opinion it's Lamar Jackson. So if you're going to reach for a quarterback, you should be taking Lamar.
Adam Azer
Hot take in this in every tier. I want the guy who I think is going to be the best. I didn't mean to say that you should settle for Josh Allen. I just want to make the point that even if you remove the injured games for LaMar Jackson in two of the previous three seasons, Josh Allen was better than him three straight years. So that's just. That was my point.
Jake Seeley
But I also different scheme back then too.
Adam Azer
Yeah, Todd Malkins been great for Lamar Jackson. He's averaged 8 and 8.8 yards per attempt in two seasons. I think Zay Flowers has been great for him. I again, I'm not going to call anyone stupid for taking Jackson number one. I just wanted to make, make that point, that's all. And someone says I feel an azer stat coming on. Oh yeah. So again, right, like you look, you just look at points per game from last year. In my opinion, doesn't work. You gotta, you gotta remove the partial games. Jaden Daniels, two partial games. Week seven, he left with an injury. Week 18, he just left Josh Allen one snap, no stats in week 18. Jalen Hurts. Week 15, he played like 15% of the snaps or something. You remove all those games. Here's how it looks. Per game in four point per passing touchdown leagues. Among those five quarterbacks, Jackson one, Allen two Daniels, Hertz, Burrow. That's four point. Jackson, Allen, Daniels, Hertz Burrow. Remove those games in six point for passing touchdown leagues. Jackson won Burrow to Allen. Hertz Daniels. Is it Dan or is it Alan Daniels Hertz actually. Yeah. So Burrow is the biggest difference there. He was number five per game and four point. Number two per game in six point. All right, Tier two. Jamie is kind of funny. I think just Patrick Mahomes talk about that.
Jamie Eisenberg
I mean, you know, I use the phrase bridge player for a lot of positions and I think he's sort of the bridge quarterback because you look at the guys after him, there's a lot of questions. Can Baker do it again? Is Dak healthy? You know, is Knicks going to be able to repeat? You know, you start to go down the sliding scale with the running quarterbacks of, you know, Drake May and Justin Field and some of these guys. Can they ascend to a tier above or, you know, a certain level of production? For me, like Mahomes, it's more hope at this point than there is like, okay, he's going to do this. And the hope is that you finally have this receiving core that we liked last year and in some cases a lot of people loved last year. And now you get to see it because you hope that Rice is healthy. You hope that Marquis Brown stays healthy. And obviously Xavier Worthy builds on what he did last year with Travis Kelce back. And so he's motivated again. You know, I saw something, you know, somebody wrote recently, you know, will they sleepwalk through the regular season again? That could obviously be the case. I mean, you know, that's the, that's the fear is like, they, okay, we're going to flip the switch in November, December and start to, you know, look like ourselves again. I don't know how much that works anymore, you know, and, and clearly it was successful to get them to the super bowl, but their offense was just such a, I don't say disaster. It was, it was frustrating to watch. It's boring, you know, and do they want to continue to put themselves in a situation where they have to bail themselves out every fourth quarter? Clearly it leads to a lot of drama and helps their, their TV ratings, which we love. But it also, you know, is, is got to be frustrating. And you, you see it, you know, you hear it. Mahomes when he talks. You hear it. And Andy Reid when he talks, like they were not the same team that we saw at the beginning of this marriage of Mahomes and Reed. And I think they're trying to get back to, I think they tried to last year. It just didn't work because the injuries. And so it's, it's for me more of a hope that, and as I wrote in the story, like, Mahomes can easily get back into the, the tier one conversation. ESPN just released their, their poll of executives, ranking quarterbacks and he's still number one. You know, there, there's, there's no denying what his talent level is, but it's, you know, fantasy wise, he's been a disaster the last two years, so it's again, more of a hope than a guarantee. And I, I think just from a value perspective, like the tier one guys, I think depending on how you draft quarterbacks, they're all in the top four or five rounds. The tier two and beyond. Like, I don't want to touch them until round six or later. And so if you get Mahomes at a value, like, I'll buy in. I'm not reaching for him this year and I think you're making a mistake if you do.
Adam Azer
First of all, you called him a disaster the last two years and I want to thank you for that because if Heath were here, he'd be like, well, he wasn't really that. No, he stunk. He's been barely inside the top 12 on a per game basis each of the last two years. 2023, he was a top 15 pick in drafts. 2024, he was a top 30 pick in draft. Good for you for having the courage to say it, Jamie. He's been a bust two straight years now. If he's. If he's QB 11 per game and you draft him in the sixth round, it just does what he did last year. The last two years, it's not so bad. You know, it's probably going to be a little disappointed with it, but it's not so bad. How do you feel about Mahomes, Jake?
Jake Seeley
Yeah, I agree, especially with the last statement that Jamie said, is that I'm not taking them early like that. And I think that's why this is where we would differ. I have him in the next t have a next year with a whole bunch of other names basically because I think at this point of who the Chiefs are, his ceiling is maybe fifth or sixth, like behind that tier still. Like, I don't know if he gets back there. I just don't know if they need him to. Mostly because of also a little bit different offense that they run now, especially with the aging Travis Kelsey. And I know having Rasheed Rice back for this season will help, but it's also changed in a bit and maybe this backfield just ends up completely being a waste and Pacheco's never back to himself and they do end up having to pass more. But even so, you know, I keep comparing it to like the Golden State Warriors. The height of their runs is like, yeah, we're just going to get to the playoffs. We don't even need Steph Curry every single game. Like we're just going to get there and then we know when to turn it on and click and go. Maybe last year not coming all the way through with that, that changes things for them and they get a little bit more oomph in the season. I don't know, but I think the one thing that Jamie kept saying, there is hope and I agree with him, there's hope that he gets back. He was actually behind Jared Golf by almost two points per game last year. He was behind Bo Nix. He was in line with Brock Purdy. And I'm not saying he can't get back past them again, but I don't think he gets back past them enough to jump out of a tear with. I agree with Jamie. There's a lot of risk with Baker Mayfield, but Baker Mayfield was like five points per game better than last year. Like to have them just flip is I could see it happening, but I have him in the same tier.
Adam Azer
So who's your second tier, Jake?
Jake Seeley
My second tier was the Joe Burrow. Unless we're doing this, he jumped into the tier one. So for the, for six point per, I would say six point per touchdown. He is tier one. So we would be talking tier two.
Adam Azer
Okay.
Jake Seeley
My tier two, you're going to have to like pause for a second here because it's a big list. It's Baker. It's Baker Fields, Bo Nicks Mahomes, Caleb Williams, Kyler Murray, Dak Prescott, Drake May and Brock Purdy.
Adam Azer
Makes sense. I mean I totally, I get exactly where you're coming from. And Jamie's makes sense too, because Mahomes could still be a 5,000 yard passer or something like that, and he's still Mahomes.
Jake Seeley
Like, I'm not coming from Jamie for this question, but like, what's the difference between hoping Mahomes gets back there or Dak Prescott staying healthy now with George Pickens as a number two, as somebody who has been top five mostly on his arm, especially in six point per game. And that's why, like I said, that's why I would keep him in that tier.
Jamie Eisenberg
Oh, I, I, like I said, I agree. It's not a, it's not. Mahomes is significantly better than Dak. And you know, kind of to Adam's question, like, which tier? Where am I drafting in? You get Dax so late still, you know, I don't think that there's been the market correction yet. Maybe because we're waiting to see how healthy is in camp. Even though the report says he's fine, that he'll sort of be in that same range as, as like where Baker and Bo Nix are going. No, you're right. There's, there's not a big difference. And, and again, you know, it's, you're looking at a graphic. You know, explain it. Obviously a little bit different in, in the story. Like, and as I said before, like, Mahomes is closer to those guys in tier three for me or tier four in some cases than he is to the guys in tier one right now. It's, it's strictly based on hope. You know, like Adam said, he could still be a 5,000 yard passer. Like I explained, the receiving cork could significantly boost his value up. But I think if anybody's looking at and saying, okay, Mahomes just because of how he is as an NFL quarterback, like, they don't match up anymore, you Know, I think that's where he's argument still comes in. Like they, they just the. The production does not match the fantasy production, you know, so he will win games, he will save teams. He said this last year, it's still applicable. You tell me right now, Patrick Mahomes got to go get a touchdown in the fourth quarter. Unless he's playing the best of the best, he's gonna go get it.
Adam Azer
Yeah. So don't do that for four quarters. By the way, Prescott right now he is QB9 in CBS ADP. That's not a ton of drafts yet. Fantasy Pros. He's QB 13. He's going 111th. Football guys, he's QB 15th. He's going after pick 100 in almost.
Jamie Eisenberg
Every ADP will be.
Adam Azer
Yeah. So if you guys really like Dak Prescott that much, he looks like an early steal. All right, so that's tier one and two with Mahomes by himself for Jamie in tier two, Tier three brings us to Baker, Mayfield, Bo Nix and Dak Prescott And Jamie, this is the first thing you answered when I said which tier are usually in. You said this one. We said three and four, but we'll split them up. So three is Mayfield, Knicks and Prescott. Four is Fields, Caleb Williams and Kyler Murray. Mayfield, Knicks, Prescott. What separates them from the guys behind them?
Jamie Eisenberg
The guys behind them is more, you know, not to keep using the word hope, but like you're hoping Justin Fields can do what he's done really essentially every time he's been a starter. Caleb is the hope that Ben Johnson and the offensive line improvements help him take a step forward. And Kyler, just the hope that he kind of gets back to what he was a little earlier in his career. I do like the fact that he's going to run more. I think the case for Baker and Nixon, Prescott is, you know, in. In the case of the two veterans, it's hard to argue that Baker takes a significant step back. There's going to be regression. Obviously it's coming off a career season. You lose Liam Cohen. Now you don't have Tristan worst for four games, at least four games. There, there's. There's reason to be concerned. But then you look at Godwin back and hopefully healthy and the addition of a Booka and a team. I think that has shown especially with Jason Light there, the general manager, even Todd Bowles is, depending how you feel about him, like they've cycled through now three offensive coordinators. You hope that this guy is now going to continue to be at least something Similar to what the last two have been, where Baker has performed at a high level. You're hoping that Mike Evans stays healthy. You're hoping that God would again, healthy. Like, there's just so much to like about Baker's situation. Now, granted, the fumbles were problem. I think he's going to have more turnovers this year. Will he run as much and have as much success running? That's a concern. But you know, when you start to stack them up. And again, format absolutely matters here because we're talking four points. Justin Fields is a tier above, Kyler Murray is probably a tier above. And, and the running production that you get from them. And even Drake may, you know, pushes those guys up. But in six points, I think to overlook Baker having another 40 touchdown season and maybe close to 4, 500 yards, I can't see it not happening. If, you know, sort of. I don't say everything's perfect, but you know, there, there's clearly the opportunity for him to be 4035 and that's hard overload.
Adam Azer
Yeah, 4000. So I'm glad you said 4000. I was just kind of looking this morning, 4000 passing yards in a 17 game season, how good is that? It's good. It's going to be something like 11th if you're looking just the amount of quarterbacks who average that many passing yards per game, which would be a pace of 4,000. You know, it's good when you start getting to like 4,200, 4,300 yards, then we're talking big stuff here, which obviously Baker Mayfield can do. He threw for 4,500 yards in 17 games last year and he also finished 2023 really strong. In his last seven games, including the playoffs, he averaged 24.9 fantasy points per game and 6 point per passing touchdown leagues. That is awesome. I mean, that's going to be top three or four most years. And then in 2024, he. How many did he average that year? Even more than that. Baker Mayfield 26.2. So basically, since, since they got Chris Godwin going in the Latter Half of 2023, Baker Mayfield's been amazing.
Jamie Eisenberg
I think one thing that we, we talk about a lot, I don't think we bring up the other side of this. Like we, we continue to praise Baker. Oh my God, he, he managed through those four games without Mike Evans when Chris Godden was out. Imagine if he had those guys.
Adam Azer
Yeah, well, one thing they did in those games though is they found their run game. They became a little run well, but.
Jamie Eisenberg
I'M just talking about him like.
Adam Azer
Yeah, right.
Jamie Eisenberg
Sort of. He was sort of living again, six points. He was living in that 20 point per game range because Kate Otten was having a great stretch and he was running the ball well. He got a couple of rushing touchdowns during that stretch. Imagine if Chris Cottage stayed healthy. Yeah, like, and Evans did not miss those four games. Now granted, it's going to happen. Every quarterback I'm sure has. We just got finished. Talk about Mahomes losing, you know, Rashi Rice and Marquis Brown for the majority of the season. Like every quarterback is going to have their issues. But like he was, he was playing so well. Those guys got him for the season. Evans for four games. Now again, you could say Jalen McMillan sort of stepped in and gave you that production at the end of the year. Okay, fine. But like the way that those two guys were playing, we, we may have seen a 5,000 yard season for Baker.
Adam Azer
All right, I just want to take a break. Go take a break. I'm going to throw it to Jake to talk about Mayfield, Nix and Dak and anyone else in his giant tier. And we'll be right back on Fantasy Football Today, meet the most capable CR V Honda has ever dreamed of.
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Adam Azer
Welcome back. I have a lot to say about Baker Mayfield, but I'm not going to do it here because I take up the whole show. So I want to hear what Jake has to say about Baker Mayfield who was the number three quarterback per game last year in six point per passing touchdown leagues and number four and four point.
Jake Seeley
Yeah, I still have him starting this tier for me. I think that the Liam Cohen thing is warranted, but maybe it's not as big as people are Making out to be part of what Jamie says. This is somebody who's been dealing with multiple offensive coordinators and every time kind of comes through checking the box since he's made his career change back to being good. And I think most of the coaches like the new offensive coordinator is promoted within like he's moving, he's stepping up from being underneath Cohen, I don't think you're going to see a lot of changes. And of course, of course Bowles with the extension. This coaching staff is pretty much intact except for Cohen. And as Jamie I love, I was about to say it's like Evans is back. Godwin expected to be healthy for week one. There's a lot of talk about that. Even if not, you know the Buca McMillan from last year, they just have weapons to make up for everything. Like if you lose one, there's going to be one that steps up, especially in this offense. And to go to what you said, to throw out a number I think that kind of gets overlooked is I'm more looking for the touchdowns. And that's one of the things the Buccaneers do is they will continue to pass in the red zone and with inside the 10 in the green zone, if you want to call it that. But the yards to make a point per game, point just one point per game difference to throw 400 extra yards because that's 25 yards over 17 games. 25 yards is one point. It's a big bump to do that every single week over the course of the season. So I'm saying like I'd rather see the touchdown equity and that's why I would still start with Baker Mayfield. But that's also why I had the conversation about Dak earlier and that's why I like him. In this group I would still have Justin Fields a little bit higher than Jamie just because I think going to the Jets I don't have to worry about him losing the job outside of injury and if he's playing the game the entire year, thousand rushing yard ups inside. So I don't need Justin Fields to throw those touchdowns I just talked about because it'll be so offset by the rushing upside. We saw it before when he was on that thousand yard pace having a miserable passing season. Like look at those numbers. They are gross. They're worse than Daniel Jones did when he ran for 707 and yet he still finished as QB 6 or 7 even in 66 point per passing touchdown because he just ran so much.
Adam Azer
Yeah, every time Justin Fields is a starter, he's a top 12 guy actually.
Jake Seeley
And I threw this out on another show. You know the two games that he threw last year when fantasy points, he had over 20 points per game. Justin Fields, in that games combined, he threw for one touchdown. His two biggest games was one total touchdown passing.
Adam Azer
My beef with Fields is that it is so inconsistent. He is going to drive you crazy because he could have three weeks in a row where he struggles and you're going, man, do I start Justin Fields at this point and then he goes for 40 points. You know, it's, you have to stick with him. You have to stick with him. He has, he has QB1 upside on a week to week basis, but he's just a little bit inconsistent.
Jake Seeley
You're not wrong about that. If you, if you draft Fields, this goes back to desean Jackson back in the day. If you draft them, you keep them in your lineup because you can't predict the good and the bad. It's not like desean Jackson only went off against bad defenses. It was, he could go up against the worst possible matchup he could find and he still goes off, but then he doesn't show up against the miserable Giants. Same thing with Fields. It'd be like, oh my gosh, they're. They're facing the Panthers defense and he does a nothing and then he goes out there and tortures the Chiefs or something.
Adam Azer
Right? Because that's, he can run on anyone. Right? So, yeah. So Jamie, you got Mayfield, Nixon, Prescott in tier three. Fields, Caleb Williams and Kyler Murray in tier four. Jake, do you see any, you know, any qualms, I guess with the separation there? It's obviously not a big separation, but your thoughts?
Jake Seeley
No, because to roll, if you roll back the tape and listen to my Tier, the only two names missing aren't here. Like they're, they're actually, they're 13 and 14. I should have said like the last two names I mentioned are the only teams names missing from Jamie's tiers here. So I have no problem with this because this would be my six. I have those same six.
Adam Azer
Everybody's pretty much sold on Bonix. I just. Before we move on, are you guys sold on Bonix?
Jake Seeley
Sold. No, I, I don't think there's that much more risk than Justin Fields, honestly. Like we've seen quarterbacks going to year two and Reg have more faith. It's not even Bo Nix. I have more faith in Sean Payton's building this team. And it is now pretty much, I want to say 100%, but it's pretty damn close to Being it is a Sean Payton team. And no, he is not Drew Brees. But you even saw it with the drafting of Pat Brian, who I wasn't a huge fan of, but going to this team afterwards is like, oh, he just got his new Michael Thomas, Marquis Colson. And no, Patrick Bryant is not the level of those players. I'm just saying the makeup of what Patrick Bryant does is like he's going out there and he's building all these pieces and it's basically a different version of Saints. Like they're RJ Harvey with Alvin Camara and none of the players seem to be of like, it's not. You don't have Alvin Camara, you don't have Marquis Colson, Michael Thomas, you don't have Jimmy Graham. But you have like the tier 2 versions to talk tiers. You have the tier 2 versions of all of them. And he's just building this team to be what Sean Payton does. Well.
Adam Azer
Okay. And you know what, those guys, they, they weren't drafted. No one thought that they were going to be stars basically. Maybe Michael Thomas, but Camara. No, I mean Marcus Colson was a seventh round pick.
Jake Seeley
Jimmy Graham, no, Michael Thomas wasn't even thought of that highly.
Adam Azer
He was a second round pick. But right, he wasn't thought of as a star. Jimmy Graham was a converted power forward, played one year, I think of tight end, maybe two. So Sean Payton gets the most out of his players. Eyebrows were raised when he drafted Bo Nix and he did well with it. He made it really simple for Bo Nixon. Bo Nix was pretty awful in the intermediate areas of the field, but didn't do a lot of it. Threw a ton of screens, he threw some deep balls and it works. So are you sold, Jamie, on Bo Nicks?
Jamie Eisenberg
I mean, I, to a certain extent. You know, Jake said exactly what I was going to say. You know, it's, it's, it's the belief in Sean Payton and, you know, finding a guy that he knows is going to get the ball to the places that Sean Payton asked him to get the ball to. And so I think, you know, to your point, Adam, about the middle of the field, well, that's what they went out and got Evan Ingram and they got somebody that can make those type of plays and make easy throws for Bo Nix in that area of the field. The biggest thing is, and you bring this up a lot, is how much will he run, you know, and will he be a 400 yard rusher? Will he be a 500 plus yard rusher? Will he be a 200 yard rusher, you know, and I think that's the biggest question because he stopped running as the year went on. He was running a little bit more early in the season. I think his profile suggests around 400 yards. You know, if you can get you a couple rushing touchdowns, you're going to be thrilled with that. The biggest thing is, is will he keep the, the true running quarterbacks sort of at bay a little bit behind him? If you're drafting, you know, so if you believe in Fields, if you believe in Kyler, if you believe in again, Drake may, you know, you're probably going to pass on Bonix because he is going to still be expensive, you know, comparatively to let's say Dak Prescott or even Justin Fields. I think people sort of, you know, in some cases have him as QB6, you know, ahead of Mahomes and head of Baker. So there's a lot of, you know, risk still with Nicks. But to exactly what Jake said, this is a strong offensive line, this is a run game that's going to get better and support him, which could take away some production. Just keep that in mind. But I do think that Sean Payne's blueprint is now all over this offense. And the only real concern, to be honest, and, and this is a guy I'm drafting a lot of. Is Cortland Sutton's contract going to become a problem? You know, is he going to show up and say I want to get paid? Because that's something that's been mentioned. He says he wants to stay with the Broncos and retire Broncos. So seems like everything right now is fine. But as Juwan Jennings just showed us today, you know, there, these, these stories will still be a problem. Terry McLaren could still be a problem, for example. So just keep an eye on that situation because that'll maybe that'll make me concerned a little bit about Bonix. As much as Bryant could be a fit and Ingram could be a fit. Like they need Sutton there to at least help the high end production of Next. Based on what we've seen from him in two years with, in two years of Sean Payton, you know, 18 total touchdowns. So I'm hoping there's no issue with Sutton. And then Nix is, is firmly planted in tier three for me.
Adam Azer
Okay, tier four real quick is Fields. We've talked about Caleb Williams and Kyler Murray and I did see a comment that was like, really Caleb Williams? So Jamie, you want to talk about why you have Caleb Williams and Kyler Murray in Tier 4.
Jamie Eisenberg
Again, this is a position you shoot for upside. And, and I'll say the word again. Hope it's a hope that Caleb Williams is the former number one overall pick in the 2023 draft. 2024 draft, excuse me, can take advantage of three upgraded enough. An offensive line is upgraded with three, I think significant players, mostly Ben Johnson, two new weapons added in Loveland and Burden and you know, showing some of the, the, the, the upside plays that we saw last year, which, you know, unfortunately just came in some small spurts. But again, if he hits, that's the reason why you're drafting him to be a borderline top 10 quarterback. Is he going to be a top five guy? I think that's a lot to ask, but I'm hoping Ben Johnson's system will be great for Caleb Williams. I'm hoping the production which was non existent for Williams last year will keep him from being sacked 60 times. I'm hoping that these playmakers will make plays for him because of what Ben Johnson will allow them to do. So, you know, if you're looking for safety, there's Jared Goff and Brock Purdy, you know, and, and they're solid. Obviously golf's coming off a strong season and Purdy, you know, showed with a healthy Christian McCaffrey and health and guys around him like he can be a 23 point per game guy. There's Tua, there's, you know, other upside guys, Drake May, Trevor Lawrence, you know, with his changes, you know, there's a lot of different ways you can go in this spot. But I'm going to take a chance on Caleb Williams and I'm probably going to back him up rather quickly. You know, you can do a Dak Caleb pairing and be fine. It's easy to do, you know, draft those two guys. So if you're going to go the complete route that I think Jake alluded to earlier, you know, if you're not going to, you know, take one of the top five guys, like take swings on two guys later, two guys with upside Caleb for me will be one of them if I have the opportunity to do so.
Adam Azer
All right, let's go to tiers five and six and take a look at Jared Goff and Brock Purdy are in tiers five and six. So I think it's pretty obvious. You look at Tier 4 of Fields Caleb and Kyler Murray and then you look at five, tier five, it's a golf and Purdy for Jamie and you see a lot less mobility, a lot less rushing. All the Brock Purdy, to give him some credit, did do Quite a bit of running last year. Let's see, where was he at? He was over 300 yards if I recall. He had 323 rushing yards and only 15 games on pace for 366 rushing yards and six touchdowns. He looked pretty damn spry out there. It was surprising. So if you can get back to 350 plus rushing yards, might have to be reconsidering Purdy's upside. Golf had a huge finish to the season, ended up having a really good year. So that's tier five Goff and Purdy. Jake, any comments on where you have golf and Purdy? I think I only heard Purdy's name in that big tier of yours.
Jake Seeley
You did? Yeah. So mostly yeah. I can see the argument for golf in six point passing touchdown. I mean that's going to be a little bit of a difference. He starts the next year for me in four points so I don't have a big problem with that. Purdy, as Jamie kind of alluded to there too, just came off, you could argue his worst season and was still just outside of being QB1. So assuming that he has some kind of a collection at wide receiver that's better than last year and a healthy Christian McCaffrey, you should only see stock up. Yeah, the name that he hasn't mentioned yet was Drake May, but he's in the next tier.
Adam Azer
I mean Jared Goff through for 4,629 yards and 37 touchdowns and he was QB8 per game. So it's just, it's hard when you do nothing on the ground, you know.
Jake Seeley
And Morton's come in and said like he's going to do a lot of what they've done already but they he it doesn't sound like a massive change. He says you'll see some small things which probably means they're bigger than what the average fan will say. Like I'm not talking down, I'm just saying when you say small things there's probably more changes than like the average person will see. Just does that mean more of a lean on the backfield with Gibson and Montgomery? Does it mean maybe golf takes a hiccup in his early season because you go back to another pocket pastor And I'm not saying Eli Manning for fantasy purposes is Jared Goff. I'm just Eli Manning when they had offensive coordinator change that one year was even talking like this is big to change the playbook and it took him six to eight games to really get comfortable and then you saw him better in the second half again I'm not worried that it's going to be that effect for golf, but just what if it's a little bit of a hiccup? And that's why I think the risk is you got to inflate some of that when it's all on the arm.
Adam Azer
Jamie, tier six is Trevor Lawrence, Drake May and J.J. mcCarthy. Someone had a comment, you know, how can you have Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison and, and T.J. hawkinson so high at their positions and, and he was still looking for JJ McCarthy and here he is, JJ McCarthy in tier six but Lawrence, Drake, May and McCarthy in tier six after Goff and Purdy in tier five. So Lawrence, May, McCarthy. Now you heard Jake talk about May. We'll talk about that in a second here. But Jamie, for you, why is Caleb Williams two tiers ahead of Trevor Lawrence, Drake May and J.J. mcCarthy?
Jamie Eisenberg
Again, the, the hope that all these changes work out well for him. I have no problem putting Lawrence and May in the same tier and McCarthy in the same tier. Like, I think you see the way I'm doing this, it's like sort of like jostling between upside and stability and that's kind of the way I would tell people to draft is almost like if you get the opportunity to take one of these swing for the fences quarterbacks, it makes sense to pair them with someone who's a little bit safer, you know, so you'll see in tier 7 and beyond, like there's you know, sort of like this back and forth of how, you know, to sort of view it. But I, I think in, in the case of Caleb, it's more of if he hits, I think his ceiling is higher. I mean again, you look at what Ben Johnson just did with a non mobile quarterback and I'm not saying that Caleb Williams is the most mobile quarterback, but he now has the opportunity to do a bunch of different things with a guy that can use his legs. Jared Goff, there was no way he was going to do that, you know, so I think that's the, the fun of what Caleb Williams can be in this offense. And so look, the history of Bears quarterbacks is terrible. They haven't had a 4,000 yard passer. You're asking two rookies who are both dealing with injuries. Coming into camp. There was a report that Loveland shoulder is better, but you have two rookies that I think a lot of people are counting on to be significant playmakers. I know I am not, you know, discounting them, you know, hoping that they're going to come in and and be, you know, big time contributors. You don't draft a tight end with the 10th overall pick and not expect them to play right away. But DJ Moore has been up and down in his career. As we know. Roma Dunes had a disappointing rookie season. There's a lot of ifs with Caleb Williams. So if you don't like him significantly, if you don't like him, pass on him easily for, you know, Lawrence or May and May strong, you know, rookie season at times. Lawrence again. Hope you know that. Liam here.
Jake Seeley
I'll give you one, Jamie to the credit back to Caleb Williams because I didn't get to talk too much about him. But when they made the offensive court, well, they got rid of Waldron. He was top 15 the rest of the season and that's not like, oh my gosh, he was 15th. But there was already an improvement last year once they, you know, they made the change and got rid of what was the terrible offense. Not helping them at all.
Adam Azer
Yeah, he had the most rushing yards without a rushing touchdown for a quarterback and I even know how long it was. It was something crazy. Caleb Williams, 489 rushing yards and no touchdowns. So he's not a goal line guy. He's not like that. But still there's. That was just really encouraging that he ran for 489 yards to give him three or four touchdowns. And we're talking here and you know, some productive. All right, so. So are you telling me that Trevor Lawrence, Drake May and JJ McCarthy have more upside as your Tier 6 guys? Do they have more upside than the sort of safe Jared Goff and Brock purdy in tier 5?
Jamie Eisenberg
In a lot of cases, yes.
Adam Azer
It's, I think it's easy to look at the more mobile guys. I don't know what McCarthy's going to be but as having more upside, especially in four point, six point. I mean the, you know, four point.
Jamie Eisenberg
Drake, Drake May would be two tears up.
Jake Seeley
That's what I have.
Adam Azer
So really interesting though because I still think that even if you felt that way, you should draft someone else because like Brock Purdy and Jared Goff are going to be on two of the best offenses in football. If those offenses stay healthy, Purdy is probably going to lead the NFL in yards per attempt or be top three. That's just, you could, you could.
Jamie Eisenberg
And, and I'm, I'm thinking this through as we're discussing it. Where do you think Purdy gets drafted if Jennings is a holdout and Ayuk is on the pop list?
Adam Azer
Yeah, it's a Problem. I think he's going to be QB15 or something like that.
Jake Seeley
I was gonna say 16. The thing with Drake made like it got overlooked last year by a lot of people is because he didn't start the season. We're talking about somebody that has 800 rushing yard upside and maybe he doesn't get there, but on the ground he's still gonna run. It's gonna call his. He's Josh Allen in the rushing department which possibly like you go back to, I bring up the 707 touchdowns for Daniel Jones years ago through 15 touchdowns in 16 games and guess what, he was a top 10 quarterback. Like when you have that kind of rushing upside. If it was only Drake may only having 400 yards, the 49 you just brought up with Caleb Williams and he still ran for four on the ground. But that being the point, it was basically like half of what his ceiling is. His ceiling is 8 to 900 rushing yards. Where I don't. Even if, even if Stefan Diggs is not Stefan Diggs or even out there to start the season, even if Caleb or Kyle Williams doesn't show up in his rookie season, even if it's the same mess that he had at wide receiver last year, a full season of him running just gives you such a floor that hey, if something clicks offensively as Jamie's talking about this shoot for upside I talked about at the beginning, shoot for upside. He just has to be a mid level capable quarterback and he's going to be a QB one.
Jamie Eisenberg
I don't understand for Jake May is if you take his 10 healthy games, he was on pace for 630 rushing yards.
Adam Azer
I actually, I have nine healthy starts for him. I removed three starts, four games overall. But that was me with. That was with me removing Week 17 when he played 81 of the snaps. So you may have kept that one in, but it was still 625 81.
Jamie Eisenberg
It's probably a full game.
Adam Azer
Remember it was the Chargers game where he left with the concussion, he left with the head injury, then he came back in. So the thing is like 19 of the snaps of a game for a quarterback could be major, major production. But either way, 625 yards, 630 years, whatever, highest yards per carry for a running back for a quarterback since 2011. And that is why I don't see that same rushing upside for Drake May because he was on pace for, let's just call it 630 rushing yards. Maybe he rushes a lot more but 81 carries, that was his pace.
Jake Seeley
I think I want to clarify what like the upside being like there's two different things I want to clarify upside for one thing is do I project them as such? No, I said, like I said ceiling because ceiling would be 800 and change. Like do I necessarily think he gets there projection likewise. That's best case scenario to me.
Adam Azer
Last year was the best case scenario because he averaged 7.8 yards per carry, which again highest since 2011. The guys who did in 2011 were Michael Vick and Christian Ponder. I would say Ponder did not.
Jamie Eisenberg
The way, the way that I kind of view it is, I'm, I'm thinking around 500 yards rushing. I do think that this offense in every facet has gotten better play caller, significantly better run game. Better with Henderson's addition receiving core obviously better with Diggs and, and Kyle Williams, you know, so there's, there's upgrades across the board. The offensive line I think should be better because it was pretty disastrous last year. So. So, you know, when you look at it, a lot of his runs were because everything was terrible, you know, and we don't hate that in fantasy. Yeah, I don't think the Patriots want to see that, especially the game you referenced Adam, where he took the concussion. So is he going to run as much without design runs? That remains to be seen. You know, Josh McDaniels doesn't necessarily have a history of using, of having running quarterbacks, you know, based on his track record. But there's still a lot to like about what Drake May profiles as. And I think Jake's comp is, you know, like a, a lesser version of Josh Allen. He can catch a lot of rushing touchdowns if the offense is better and in those positions. And so, you know, we could be looking at 507. You know, I think the 707 that you referenced with Daniel Jones is, is there, you know, he can do, he can do that. But I also think he's going to take a step forward as a passer, you know, so. Yes. Can he be in that 22, 23 point per game range? Absolutely. To me, Drake May is one of the best values on drafting.
Adam Azer
Right? No, there's a lot to like about him. Turnover prone last year, turnover prone in college. So that's what I'm keeping an eye on. But I'm just saying it's easy to be seduced by the upside of a guy like Drake May and to overlook. Man, Jared Goff and Brock Purdy are really good. They're the starters for the lions and the 49ers. These teams will be among the NFL leaders in touchdowns and Purdy ran for 350 yards last year. He was on pace for 360 rushing yards. Whatever it was, can't make that case for golf. But it's an interesting decision. It's just an interesting decision to make and I'm not going to. I'm not going to tell you what yeah, sure, exactly. I'm not going to tell you what to make but it's just people have different ways of looking at it. Tier 7 is interesting and probably better, you know, not probably certainly better tier 7 in A, in a 6 point per passing touchdown league where these guys might all be really underrated and they're two at Tonga by loa Justin Herbert, Jordan Love, CJ Stroud and Matthew Stafford in a four point per passing touchdown league. Herbert will get you some rushing yards. Stroud might get you around 200. Tua and Stafford are giving you almost nothing. Jordan Love is interesting because I think he can be solid with his legs. Not nothing special but he hurt. He sprained his MCL in week one. He hurt his groin I think later in the year against Jacksonville he was playing hurt so he his rushing totals completely sunk. I think, I think he's one of the most underrated players in fantasy this year. Jordan love but tier 7 does feel kind of like a 6 point per passing touchdown tier. Jamie to a tongue of I love Justin Herbert, Jordan Love, C.J.
Jamie Eisenberg
Stroud, Matthew Stafford again it, you know Jake said it at the beginning of the, of the show. I think we're all in agreement. It's such a deep position like you don't have to reach for one of the top five guys and who to me the the biggest mysteries to some extent who is Jordan Love in the packers this year and who is C.J. stroud in Texans? Because 2023 we saw Jordan Love throw the ball all over the place and was healthy. 2024 we saw him injured and they get Josh Jacobs in their third worst in pass attempts. CJ Stroud had one of the best rookie seasons we've seen in the last 10 years and then everything falls apart and he looks like a disaster. And I think there was one offensive line ranking that came out this weekend that has the Texans the worst. So you know which, which version of these two guys are we getting? And Tua, I mean look. 2023 leads the NFL in passing yards. 2024 misses six games back to having injury concerns. Justin Herbert strong finish. How much of the foot injury was a problem early in the season and they drafted or they add two running backs that could significantly go back to being what a Greg Roman offense wants to look like. And Matthew Stafford's collecting AARP and Social Security at this point. So you know, like this is to me a very safe tier. Still has some upside. Can't argue that there's not upside there. But I like the guys in Tier 6 for their upside potential and again, if you want to wait on the position, I have no problem. Give me Trevor Lawrence and Jordan Love to start my team and I'll make it work.
Adam Azer
Yeah, and I think that's the difference between tier 7 and then tier 8. I don't think Jamie's going to tell you in a 12 team league, hey, make Michael Pennix and Anthony Richardson or Bryce Young or Cam Ward your starting quarterback and you're fine, right? This is the end of that discussion of I waited really long and these guys are my starters, starting quarterbacks and by the way would be the Colts.
Jamie Eisenberg
Starter because both guys are going to run obviously Richard's going to run much more. But the, the upside of Anthony Richardson is still like it's, it's hard to overlook as much as you may hate everything that he's done so far and been frustrating about the injuries and the, the poor pass attempts and all those things. Like there's still too much fantasy upside to ignore. So Richardson's a guy that could jump two tiers basically if, if things, you know, work out for him in camp and he looks like the job, the work with Josh Allen's throwing coach and you know, the shoulder injury are not an issue like and the same for Daniel Jones to a certain extent he's not going to go much higher than this but he'll, he'll be in probably tier 8 if he's a starter ahead of Richard.
Adam Azer
Jake, when you look at tier seven for Jamie Tua, Herbert Love, Stroud, Stafford, who are your two favorites?
Jake Seeley
Stroud and Love. I go to Stroud and I brought this up when I was talking about some of the offseason changes for them and the fact that we saw Stroud last year, it wasn't just the offensive line. There's a lot of things going wrong including the Tankdale injury, Stefan Diggs and all that type stuff. The one thing that I noted when watching Stroud last year is that the one area of success while under massive pressure all year long was when he threw to Nico Collins. And it's just he still was a pretty actually mid level passer because he, that was the only guy he could throw to and this is a lot of wish casting here because we are talking about rookies and Christian Kirk stepping in but I thought Jaden Higgins could be kind of a Marvin Jones and then Dane Brugler at the Athletic compared to Nico Collins. I was like hell you give C.J. stroud to Nico Collins's and even under pressure he should be just fine. But I say wish casting because we are talking about a rookie. His teammate Jalen Noel is going to be battling probably behind Christian Kirk to start and I just think that if we get some type of health yes, the offensive line doesn't look like he made that much of an improvement even with their addition. I think that C.J. stroud is still capable enough under pressure but similar to the golf argument that you were kind of making earlier is one we know the offense should be better but they're both pocket passers. They're both going to have to do most of it with their arms. So there's just a lot more risk with Stroud but I'm willing to gamble on that. And then he even gets close to two years ago and then Love just because we could see what was the change you brought up the injury Jamie but also like this is also an office that does like to pass more than it did last year and was last year a microcosm of that injury carrying over to everything and Jacobs just being effective. The wide receivers getting hurt every single other week and of course they add golden but maybe a healthy love Love and now even a little bit more wide receiver depth. Although it seems like they have a bunch of twos and still no one that Jordan Love does get back to. He was a top 10 quarterback for a time there so those are my two. But I do like this tier. There's only one name that I didn't even have in here and that's Jared Goff. But again we talked about him earlier as Jared Goff's in this tier with me but six point passing touchdown. I agree with Jamie. He would get boosted out of this tier higher.
Adam Azer
So Jamie Compare tiers 8 and 9 for me because tier 8 is penix, Anthony Richardson, Bryce Young, Cam Ward. We've got a lot of unproven players. Tier 9 is the old folks. Gino older at least Geno, Sam Darnold, he's not that old. Aaron Rodgers, Russell Wilson, Joe Flacco and Daniel Jones again Geno Smith, Sam Darnold, Aaron Rodgers, Russell Wilson, Joe Flacco and Daniel Jones. What puts Pennix, Richardson, Bryce Young and Cam Ward ahead of Geno Smith, Sam Darnold, Aaron Rodgers, Russell Wilson, Joe Flacco and Daniel Jones.
Jamie Eisenberg
Upside for the guys in tier 8 and really not much for the guys in tier 9. Again Jones would get a little bit of a boost if he's the starter, so I would put him in tier 8 and obviously be concerned about Anthony Richardson. Look, Bryce Young finished the season very strong last year and I think the Canalis influence after he was benched and the addition of McMillan is going to be big, you know, so. Plus when he had Adam Thielen back at the end of the season so you know you have a, a very underrated and solid offensive line. You have some playmakers around him now if McMillan can sort of be that guy that was drafted in the first round. And so you, you see when I'm talking about upside, he's tier 8 so it's not like I'm expecting him to come in and be a, a consistent fantasy producer but super flex, two QB leagues. Like he's a good mid round pick, late round pick depending on how those guys go. Penix the team averaged over 30 points per game in the three starts that he made last year. He has two solid if not elite weapons, you know in. Not elite but he has two solid weapons, you know, one elite in Drake London and one, you know, solid guy in Darnold Mooney and I think create a play caller plus a defense that's going to struggle. So I think he's gonna have to throw the ball a lot. I like his talent. Cam Ward is completely based on hope. Rookie quarterbacks, especially number one overall picks. The last two years have been disappointments but I still think there's a chance for him to be an 18 plus point per game guy, you know, in six points for passing touchdowns. So he's you know, back end of this tier and then again for Anthony Richardson if he hits. Yeah, you know, clearly this is a guy that we were drafting as a top 10 quarterback last year. It was a mistake, he struggled, he took himself out of games, you know, I mean it was a disaster all the way across the board but still too hard to overlook his rushing upside. So Geno Smith and Sam Darnold, I think they're going to hold on to the jobs the entire Rodgers as well hold on to the job the entire season. Darnold, if he does struggle, do we see Jalen Milro? Maybe, but I just don't think there's a lot of upside here. You know, I think we're talking ceilings of like 20 points per game, you know, I think the Raiders are going to run the ball a lot. I think the Seahawks want to run the ball a lot. Obviously, Rogers is 41. Russell Wilson clues his job. Flacker lose his job. So there's, there's not a lot of high expectations for the, for the elderly crew.
Adam Azer
All right. And tier 10 is a bunch of guys who, what we're hoping become starters at some point. Tyler Shook. I'm not hoping.
Jamie Eisenberg
They're just the backups. I think that you can, you know, more super flex or two QB leagues. Like, if you're taking guys that are not starting right now. This, this is kind of where I put this group. Plus the Saints quarterbacks.
Adam Azer
Yeah, Saints quarterbacks. Jackson Darts, Sanders, Kirk Cousins, Jalen Milro, Sam Howell. I was saying if you draft them, you're hoping they become starters because they don't have jobs as of now. Jake, before we go, how many wins for our New York Giants this year?
Jake Seeley
It hasn't been an hour in years. Dude, I'm going to put that, don't put that evil on me. Ricky Body.
Adam Azer
You're not Giants.
Jake Seeley
It's been years. I, I don't know how many times I've had to reference this. When they drafted Daniel Jones, I said, I'll give them one year to prove me wrong. And I was out on year two.
Adam Azer
That is harsh.
Jake Seeley
You can go back and check the tape.
Adam Azer
Fandom. You just dropped your fandom because of Daniel Jones.
Jamie Eisenberg
Dropped him.
Jake Seeley
I don't care about him anymore. That's the organization makes so many dumb decisions. I got out.
Jamie Eisenberg
I got out.
Jake Seeley
Just like I did with Chicago Bulls 10 years, 12 years ago. If you're happy with being middle of the pack every single year, I don't want you as a sportsman.
Adam Azer
Middle of the pack, boy, I would love.
Jake Seeley
I know they would be happy to be middle of the pack. My exact point. So how many wins? I actually think there will be improvement this year.
Adam Azer
I don't care. You're not a fan. I don't care anymore.
Jamie Eisenberg
He did. I want to go back and check the tape. I think he just said our franchise, though.
Adam Azer
Our franchise.
Jake Seeley
No, I was saying it's not our franchise. I said don't put that evil on me.
Jamie Eisenberg
No, no, no, no. After that part, though, I think when you said, you said our franchise has made so many bad decisions.
Adam Azer
See, just when he thought he was.
Jake Seeley
Out, they pull him back in there. As I wear the Houston Texans shirt, only because it has Raphael on it.
Adam Azer
Okay, you get Raphael. Oh, let's check the Twitter poll. By the way, who's your favorite ninja Turtle? Oh, Raphael is. Oh, he's in third. Michelangelo pulling away at almost 40% of the vote. And then the other three are basically tied. I'm sorry. Give me a giant win total.
Jake Seeley
Six and a half. They're going to screw themselves out of, like, any type of help again next year and not even make the playoffs. That's just what they do. They just get used to it. Adam, you're going to be here for a long time.
Adam Azer
I am used to it. All right, Jake Seeley, thank you so much. We appreciate it. Jamie Eisenberg, great stuff. We'll see you on CBS Sports Network at 1pm Eastern. Go to podcastawards.com and vote for Fantasy football today in the sports podcast category. Talk to you tomorrow on ffd.
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Adam Azer
Is this a hit it situation?
Jake Seeley
It's whatever kind of adventure we want it to be. July 17th on Paramount. Plus it's an all new season of adventures. We have to stop this invasion.
Adam Azer
Get into this. This crew is a team. We are going to find our way out of this together.
Jake Seeley
Chaos. It's one in a thousand.
Jamie Eisenberg
We get it done right or don't blow ourselves up along the way.
Jake Seeley
I like those odds. We'll just turn it off before we blow up. Star Trek Strange New worlds. New season streaming July 17th on Paramount. Plus.
Fantasy Football Today: QB Tiers and Quinshon Judkins Reaction (07/14 Episode)
Release Date: July 14, 2025
Hosts and Guest:
In this episode of Fantasy Football Today, host Adam Azer teams up with analyst Jamie Eisenberg and special guest Jake Seeley from The Athletic to delve into quarterback (QB) tiers for the upcoming fantasy football season. The discussion also covers the recent arrest of Browns rookie running back Quinshon Judkins, providing listeners with essential insights to dominate their fantasy leagues.
Tier One: Elite Quarterbacks
Jamie Eisenberg ranks Jackson, Allen, Daniels, Burrow, and Hertz in the top tier.
"Burrow was the second quarterback last year in points per game and six points for passing touchdowns." ([21:32])
Jake Seeley concurs with Jamie's tier one, emphasizing the high ceilings of these quarterbacks.
"Lamar Jackson could almost be in a tier of his own... he would still far away be the number one." ([23:00])
Tier Two: Bridge Quarterback
Patrick Mahomes stands alone in this tier, viewed as a bridge quarterback with potential upside but some uncertainties.
"Mahomes is more of a hope at this point than like, okay, he's going to do this." ([32:05])
Tier Three: High-Upside Quarterbacks
Includes Baker Mayfield, Bo Nix, and Dak Prescott. These QBs are seen as having significant potential but come with inherent risks.
"He's going to have more turnovers this year." ([39:14])
Tier Four: Up-and-Coming and Mid-Level QBs
Comprises Justin Fields, Caleb Williams, and Kyler Murray. These quarterbacks offer a mix of consistency and upside, with specific strengths like rushing ability.
"He's going to have that rushing upside... which you don't need him to throw those touchdowns." ([44:35])
Tiers Five to Seven: Developing and Risky Quarterbacks
Tier Five: Jared Goff and Brock Purdy are considered reliable but lack the towering upside of higher tiers.
"Purdy looks pretty damn spry out there." ([53:00])
Tier Six: Trevor Lawrence, Drake May, and J.J. McCarthy are identified as high-upside options with significant variability in performance.
"Drake May is one of the best values on drafting." ([62:37])
Tier Seven & Eight: Include QBs like Jared Goff, Jaden Daniels, and emerging talents who may become starters based on team dynamics and coaching.
"Caleb Williams is the former number one overall pick... if Ben Johnson's system will be great for him." ([55:11])
The episode shifts focus to the shocking news of Quinshon Judkins, Cleveland Browns' rookie running back, being arrested on a domestic violence and battery charge. Host Adam Azer addresses the potential impact on fantasy drafts and team strategies.
"Quinshawn Judkins, Cleveland's rookie running back, was arrested on a domestic violence and battery charge." ([05:07])
Jamie Eisenberg emphasizes the uncertainty surrounding Judkins' availability, suggesting that managers might prioritize drafting other running backs like Dylan Sampson or Jerome Ford.
"I think Ford is more of like a break glass in case of emergency guy." ([07:17])
Jake Seeley adds that the Browns' backfield dynamics could shift significantly based on Judkins' status, potentially elevating Jerome Ford's role.
"If Judkins is out, then Ford steps up." ([07:35])
The hosts discuss various draft strategies in light of Judkins' situation and the established QB tiers. Emphasis is placed on balancing reliability with upside, especially when dealing with uncertain player statuses.
Jerome Ford is highlighted as a valuable asset if Judkins or Sampson miss time, with Jamie recommending acquiring him if possible.
"You should be trying to acquire Jerome Ford if you can, because there's a very clear path now to him being the starter early in the season." ([09:21])
Christian McCaffrey's status with the 49ers is analyzed, with Jake Seeley considering him a top-tier running back if healthy.
"He's Christian McCaffrey on the 49ers... it'd take 75, 80% Christian McCaffrey to not be the number one running back." ([10:36])
The episode also touches on community initiatives, announcing that they've surpassed the $2,000 mark raised for St. Jude.
"We have now eclipsed the $2,000 mark... we've raised $2,261 for St. Jude." ([16:00])
Listeners are encouraged to participate in mock drafts and mailbag questions, with all proceeds benefiting St. Jude.
The discussion wraps up with light-hearted banter and reminders to vote for the podcast in the Podcast Awards. The hosts reiterate the depth of the QB tiers and the importance of staying informed to navigate the complexities of fantasy football effectively.
Notable Quotes:
This episode provides comprehensive insights into quarterback rankings and the implications of Quinshon Judkins' legal issues on fantasy football strategies. Whether you're a seasoned manager or new to the game, the hosts offer valuable perspectives to help you make informed decisions for the upcoming season.