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Rankings Conundrums - Who's Dynasty QB1? How Many Rookies are Top 12 RBs? + more (05/27 Fantasy Football Dynasty Podcast)
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- [00:01]
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- [00:32]
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- [01:27]
Unknown Speaker
Foreign.
- [01:35]
Heath Cummings
Welcome to Fantasy Football Today Dynasty. I am your host, Heath Cummings. I am joined today by, I think he actually referred to himself as one of the dinosaurs of the industry. I will say one of the legends of the industry. Smitty from the Fantasy Football show, thank you for being here today. It's good. Like as you were saying earlier, we've both been doing this a long time, but it may be the first time we've ever talked to each other on air. So thanks for being here and tell everybody like what your experience in the industry has been like and where they can find your work today.
- [02:06]
Unknown Speaker
Yeah, man, thanks for having me on. I, you know, I've seen you around for, for a while. We haven't been able to get on a show together. So this is great. And, and you guys do awesome work on the show. So appreciate you having me on. Yeah, I'm, I'm on YouTube every single day. I think my, my, my main kind of thing is that I go live whenever news breaks. So yeah, I just kind of live in the studio here and so yeah, you can find me on YouTube at the fantasy football show and on Instagram. I'm pretty active on Instagram too. Those are my two main platforms. So YouTube.com the fantasy football show, that's where I'm at when the news breaks and I gotta have you on when something big happens sometime, I'll send you a link. Yeah, but that's kind of what how I live and die is based on news.
- [02:51]
Heath Cummings
And maybe when Aaron Rodgers finally decides that if he wants to play football or not. Yeah, that that'll be a big show. You know, today is going to be. And I do this often with guests. I bring somebody on to help me solve my problems, which will eventually help you guys solve your problems. This week I am updating positional rankings for every position as I usually do at the end of the month. And just a reminder, you can see those rankings at CBS Fantasy. You'll be able to see the updated trade charts over, over on SportsLine. And as I go through this process and I do it more than once a month, but I publish it once a month, there's always these little sticky points in the rankings. And I'm sure you feel the same way as I do about rankings, like can we just do like tiers or something? Because a lot of these guys, there's not huge differences, but people want players listed in an order. So I've got some questions. Questions like who really should be the QB one in Dynasty? How many rookies should be top 12 at running back and several more. And I'm just going to ask you, we'll talk through it. I may even adjust some rankings as we talk on the show, but we always start with three questions for our guest. And one of the things I wanted to ask you as somebody who's done this for a while is it used to be if you, you could just pay more attention than half of your league or maybe even all of your league and really find an edge by knowing stuff they didn't know. It seems like information, especially statistics, have become so prevalent on social media everywhere. Is there still an edge to be had in fantasy football?
- [04:30]
Unknown Speaker
I think so. I think there's always going to be an edge because it really comes down to predicting the breakouts and sleepers and up and coming players. You know, comes down to that every year and those change, you know, and every year we got a new group of guys and this year is more beautiful than ever because of the running back injection we have with these RBs. I mean, to your next question, it'll be a question answer then. But I think you're always just kind of fighting that, being right in landing, you know, your bold shots. And so that's kind of like. I love doing that. I love trying to find the next JD5, try and find the next breakout running back, who's the next Bucky. And I think that, yeah, that's what it's all about. I mean, and the stats are fun. And I often get coined as a guy that doesn't, you know, go off stats as much. I go off gut instinct, which, I don't know, I take pride in that. But at the same time, I think, you know, it's more about, for me, the gut instinct and then. And then what data backs that up to kind of solidify it for me. So, yeah, I, I totally think there's an edge. I think we'll always have an edge. Not to mention you're fighting yourself trying to make your weaknesses into strengths. I mean, we go to school to try and better our weaknesses and all that, but for some reason, fantasy football players are like, I'm a bad drafter but a great trader. I'm a great trader but a bad drafter and say, why not make one of those weaknesses of strength so you can always get better and learn, you know, at this. But a lot of people don't put in that work. And it really is work. I mean, our, our girlfriends or wives, everybody's significant other, they. They look at us like we're. We're crazy in here, but we're actually trying to, to learn and get better at something that, you know, I think you can actually get better now with best ball and all that. You can make money off it. So it's like there's a lot at stake. That.
- [06:17]
Heath Cummings
That was a great answer. You referenced the next question. Who is your favorite rookie that is usually available in round three or later.
- [06:27]
Unknown Speaker
Of rookie dress in round three of a rookie draft? One guy, we, we're talking up a ton in my community, and I don't know how much you guys have talked about, but Jacori, Crosky, Merritt, I love that kid. And his, his rise I think is eventual. Now, there's no lock when you're talking third rounder. There's no lock when you're talking about a running back that late seventh rounder. But Adam Peters, if we look back, Adam Peters, the new GM in Washington, is the guy who identified, partly identified Brock Purdy in the seventh round, identified George Kittle late in the draft. I mean, this is a scout monster. And so if he likes Jakory, Crosby, Merritt, AKA Little Bill, it's a little easier. Say Little Bill. He, he's. He's one of my favorite guys that I'm scooping up and in, in best ball and really in any draft, he's going in the 200. So it's, it's waiver wire fodder. If it doesn't work out, it's not going to cost you a thing. I love, I love Jacori Koski Mary, even in Redraft, I like.
- [07:30]
Heath Cummings
Yeah, we have talked about him a little bit before the draft. I believe it was both Jacob Gibbs and Matt Waldman brought him up during our rookie running back preview. And I do think like the draft capital. Yeah, it's not great, but the situation with an Austin Eckler at an age where he could fall off at any moment and Brian Robinson really failing to provide the explosive plays there and, and they are a team that's used three backs in the past. So he may be one injury away or he may just go take a job on his own. A lot of times when I'm getting these questions ready, I like to go through and look at somebody's, you know, their, their recent shows or their tweets and you've had a couple of maybe relatively hot takes, maybe warm takes about Patrick Mahomes and Marvin Harrison Jr. Which one is more likely to be right? Your Patrick Mahomes bold prediction or your Marvin Harrison Jr. Bold prediction.
- [08:22]
Unknown Speaker
Yeah. So Marvin Harrison Jr. Definitely was a dud last year from the expectation level at least. I mean 808 touchdowns is still a good year for a rookie. Rookie. But yeah, I think Mahomes, I mean Mahomes has been, you know, QB1, QB3, QB2, QB1 and then yeah, QB7 and QB10 depending on your scoring.
- [08:44]
Heath Cummings
Right.
- [08:45]
Unknown Speaker
There's only been two years where he hasn't stepped up. And Tom Brady had years where he was a little bit flat like it happens. And his career still, he's not even in the middle of his career. I love that people think he's incapable of returning to, to glory. Not just top five, six quarterback numbers. I mean to number one, number two consistently. And he had some injuries. You have Andy Reid constantly morphing over the years of run heavy makes these running back monsters. Then he has Tyreek Hill and he goes past heavy. And then the last two years there's been a combination of crazy things going on. And last year specifically losing Rasheed Rice, losing Hollywood Brown, having, you know, all kinds of other issues and Worthy barely getting his feet wet and kind of learning along the way. And so for me, Mahomes is probably, I think when we look back on the biggest misstep from a consensus wise adp, the biggest blunder in fantasy will be Mahomes's adp. I think Mahomes in the sixth seventh round is criminal. It bakes in every sit of every bit of risk that people spit out when they talk about how how bad he's going to disappoint you or why would you waste to pick up my homes. He's in the sixth or seventh round if he if he's QB 7 or 8 or 9 or 10, he pretty much earns that. So Mahomes to me is not only the more likely, even though I like both, you know, MHJ and Moms, it's the one that could win you a league without question.
- [10:13]
Heath Cummings
Of the two, you know, I love that, I love that you brought up Brady and how that happened to him. One guy that we referenced earlier, Aaron Rodgers, we saw that before his MVP late in his career. He had a couple of really mediocre efficiency type seasons and then all of a sudden he's just an elite producer again. Elite quarterbacks are going to give you elite seasons if you get a chance to draft them at a discount. You should absolutely do that. We're going to take our first break and then we'll jump into some rook some rankings conundrums.
- [10:40]
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- [11:38]
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- [12:06]
Heath Cummings
To orders over $35 so I think I've had four different QB ones in the last calendar year in Dynasty. I've had three different QB ones in the last three months. And, and the way I often frame that to people is, listen, whoever you're getting at QB3 is probably a discount because I view these guys kind of all in the same tier. Maybe you think it's QB4, especially if you think Mahomes is going to bounce back. But do you think that there is somebody who should definitely be QB1 in dynasty rankings right now?
- [12:40]
Unknown Speaker
Definitely. No. I mean Josh Allen and JD5 to me I think Lamar's as much as people get really mad when you talk about Lamar's inconsistencies over the years. Not lately. But lately I tie to Henry. I tied to having some continuity or some, some balance to the offense really. So and I worry about that with Henry's, you know, potential decline. We never know when it's going to happen. But I think Josh Allen's proven and he can sustain everything by himself. Imagine if Buffalo Spartans up and somehow gets him a a weapon that can be a top five to ten wide receiver. But I think JD5 is the guy you have to go with because of the ability to run the ball. And not to mention that that he's untapped so far. We have a tendency I think for, for fantasy owners at least to, to look at JD5 as a he's already hit a ceiling whereas any other rookie we give so much leeway to say he could become, you know, 5x better and it's like JD5 was so good everybody just assumes we've seen it. We haven't even seen him scratch the surface. So and he's a gunslinger. He comes out of college with a 40 passing touchdown, 4 INT ratio, 10 rushing touchdowns. I mean he is just an a monster on all sides of things. He was, he was number, number one in FBS in, in 20 plus yard throws. I think his his percentage was 67% and that was the highest in the last 10 years. So you could almost make arguments for him being one of the better pocket passers to come out in the last decade and people just kind of look at him and say this is going to be a guy that will be amazing running. He'll need to develop as a pat no He's a gunslinger and so I think he's capable of 40 touchdown passes on the regular once he gets into, you know, full JD5, you know, mature mode. And he's surrounded by one of the most up and coming organizations that has been taken over one year. And Adam Peters, as you could allude to from my other comment, is one of the best GMs in football already. And he gets him, Debo. He, he's going to surround him with talent as the years go on and more importantly, Washington's going to be one of the most attractive places to go for free agents. And it's just going to grow the, the interest and the, the talent around JD5. It's just going to be, it's going to be hard to, to miss on JD5 unless he gets hurt.
- [15:09]
Heath Cummings
You know, that's the, that's the thing. If Dan Schneier, who's on this show very regular, regularly, before the Draf, had concerns about Daniel's size and playing style, I think he answered some of the concerns last year by showing that no, he wasn't just going to run into tacklers with reckless abandon like he did his last year at lsu. He played smarter football. And so it's, it's funny you say that because I said, I think back in January, if Jaden Daniels gets a real number two wide receiver, then he might be my number one quarterback and redraft in 2025. Well, I've done the 20, 2025 projections and Jaden Daniels is my number one QB for this year in the projections and he's five years younger than Lamar Jackson, six years younger than Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen. So it's pretty easy for me to justify putting Daniels at QB1. I think the thing we haven't seen, you're right, the upside to be better than he was last year certainly exists. It's hard, I think, for some people to say, well, I've seen Lamar score 32 points a game. I've seen Josh Allen score 27 fantasy points a game for five straight years. I just, I want to see Daniels do that before I value him as QB1. The great thing is you don't really have to. Most people have Jackson or Allen as the number one quarterback. If you want to make that move to get to Daniels, you're going to get plus value added into that deal and you may just feel my rankings, you're actually going to get the number one quarterback also. So it's a great situation to kind of maximize that value. What is a tier of three for me.
- [16:44]
Unknown Speaker
What about his burst is sack, though?
- [16:46]
Heath Cummings
Yeah, yeah.
- [16:48]
Unknown Speaker
I mean, people were. It's crazy, you know, the amount of doubters there were. It doesn't seem like it now, but it was. We had a live chat because we were a big JD5 community, and we had our live chat constantly full of. He's too small. He's gonna get crushed. He's got the burst to sack. Teams are avoiding him because of the bump on his elbow. Like it was. People just wanted him to fail. Yeah, he did not. Yeah, he did not. He did not fail. And yeah, I mean, I think adding Debo, like, look at his situation, everything is improved. Everything's gonna get better. There's nothing. There's no red flags of any kind. It's gonna be. It's just going to be a much improved situation, I think, every step of the way for him and at least as he progresses. And Debo Samuel, as I always say, may have busted in San Francisco had he stayed. He had a fractured relationship with the fan base from the holdout, and it just. He was not happy. He was not happy at all in San Francisco. They didn't use him right. They ran him into the ground. And so him going to San or him going from San Francisco to Washington is going to rejuvenate his career in a way that gives us another year and a half of Debo, at least. I. I think he's a.
- [17:59]
Heath Cummings
He's a great combination with McLaren. McLaren can do the downfield stuff, Debo can do the Yak stuff. It should work out great for everyone involved. The funny thing is, like, I have this concern about the top of my rankings at the top 12, and then it's even worse at the bottom of the top 12. And if you look at the values in my dynasty rankings, you'll see that Kyler Murray, Bo Nicks, Justin Herbert, Drake May, C.J. stroud, those guys are all very, very close for me. Jordan Love and Brock Purdy, too, in terms of value. But there's four guys in that tier right around QB12. Bo Nix, Justin Herbert, Drake May, CJ Stroud. Did I really have a difficult time separating or just even, like, I think somebody could maybe make the case. And I'll give you the chance right now to make the case of those four quarterbacks. Nicks, Herbert, May and Stroud. Is there anything that separates those guys for you? Or are we just kind of waiting to see what the second your guys do in year two and whether or not Justin Herbert gets to throw more than 500 passes? With his current coaching staff, I think so.
- [19:03]
Unknown Speaker
I think the number one for me is Nick's for a bunch of reasons. Number one, untapped ceiling which you could say about Drake may.
- [19:10]
Heath Cummings
Right.
- [19:11]
Unknown Speaker
But it comes down to I think for a lot of us when even if you're subconsciously doing it, who's in the best offense or who's in the best offensive situation. And while Drake may could be if Kyle Williams develops they drop offensive line, they take Henderson who's the one of the best, if not the best pass blocking back in the draft class and could be one of the best pass blocking backs in the NFL. You know, nearly immediately at least handful. And so I think there's a lot of good going on in New England, but that's going to take time. You've got Harvey, R.J. harvey, who I'm sure we'll talk about in a minute, who I absolutely love. You've got, you've got Sean Payton, you've got an offense, offensive line and Bo. Nick's already showing signs that he's scratching at the surface himself of being a potential low end elite quarterback. I, I think that give me the offense, give me the upside that I, I, I believed in before the draft. So I clearly like him now in his situation but I think by far and away I'm going to lean toward the explosion and offense and the upside of Denver. But I think when you look at like Herbert, I, I liken him to a race car that can go 200 miles an hour in a race with other 200 mile an hour race cars but his coach has put a governor restrictor on his gas pedal and he's like you can go 120, that's it. And so we'll never in. Herbert's an amazing quarterback and if he had gotten traded or someday does get traded to Minnesota to throw footballs to JJ he will be a top five quarterback without hesitation. But right now he is restricted. He's got one hand cuffed to his leg and both behind his back and what can you expect? What do you have? 30, 3800. What do you have last year? Passing is ridiculous compared to what he's capable of of 5, 000 yards. So yeah, I can't, I can't bet on Herbert at all.
- [21:01]
Heath Cummings
So, so the one. It's funny because I think like a lot of people are having the Knicks vs May discussion and there are people who have Justin Herbert four or five spots higher than I do based on the talent and just saying the situation will eventually work its way itself out. But the one guy you didn't mention and the one guy that I'm struggling with, most of us had him in our top six Dynasty quarterbacks one year ago today, C.J. stroud. After a great rookie year and then a disappointing second season, I think there was a lot of hope with Stefan Diggs coming in and Tank Dell coming back from injury. And he's supposed to have one of the best receiving cores, if not the best in the NFL. Diggs has now gone to New England. Tank Dell's probably going to miss this entire season. They drafted a couple of rookie wide receivers out of Iowa State. And if you listen to the show a couple weeks ago, you know, you heard some really encouraging things about the potential for Jaden Higgins in that offense. But where are you at on Stroud right now? Like is it, is it a good buy opportunity because his value has fallen so much in the last year or was that rookie year a bit of a mirage?
- [22:02]
Unknown Speaker
I'm a little worried about him more than I'm excited. I think he's closer to disappointing than closer to bouncing back. I think he could be something in between and I'm not calling him necessarily a bust in the NFL or anything, but when you're talking about how deep the quarterback pool is with Kyler and Dak being almost outside of the, the, you know, the desire to start somebody, I, I don't need to go near Stroud and I, I probably won't. Pennix Jr. Is more attractive. Bo Nix is more attractive. To me, I think that Stroud with the offensive line woes they lost guys is. It could be considered one of the most concerning offensive line situations in 2025 mixed with the fact that they still have an unproven wide receiver room that has two rookies trying to battle it out and learn. And we saw, you know, Xavier Worthy need to learn. It took him a while and Stroud taking such a big step backward them making Bobby Slowik a scapegoat who I, I think will be very beneficial to Miami. And I, I think that that's, that's par for the course in the NFL. There's failure. They point fingers. This guy was, was as popular as Ben Johnson walking out of last season. Bobby Slowik and decided to stay and then, and then they make him escape go. I just don't know if all this change and turmoil is going to make for a better 2025. As, as you know, we were so disappointed last year. It just. There's a lot of change in moving parts. I'm backing off. I want nothing to do with it.
- [23:25]
Heath Cummings
Let's move to the running back position. You talked about what a great year it was in terms of draft classes for this position and we needed it. We'll talk about the older guys in just a moment. But we're getting ready to lose some really fantastic fantasy running backs. Maybe not this year. Some of us thought it would happen last year and it didn't. But let's talk about the rookies first. How many rookie running backs from the 2025 class should be ranked inside the top 12 running backs in Dynasty?
- [23:53]
Unknown Speaker
Top 12, I would say Genti top one to three, Harvey, Hampton and Hendy all could be top 10.
- [24:04]
Heath Cummings
So I, I have so four. Genty, Henderson and Hampton all in my top 12. I don't have Harvey. I want to talk about Henderson first and then I'll let you make your case for why I'm too LOW on, on R.J. harvey, because I think everybody has Genti and Hampton and then there are some Judkins people, there are some Johnson's people, there are some Harvey people, there are some Henderson people. You like a couple of those guys. I love the fit in New England with Josh McDaniels for Travion Henderson. I love the fact they land from Andre Stevenson, who is really, I think at this point in his career proven that he's best served in that between the tackles, like take, take all those trap touches and leave the, the more valuable touches for Henderson. I think we could see 60 catches from Henderson as a rookie easy. Is, is there more than that though? I mean, we've talked about the pass blocking which is gonna be, I think, gonna be fantastic. The receiving work's going to be fantastic. The question is, is he one of those guys that sneaks into the top 12 because he catches 60 passes regularly or could he turn into like he's not going to be Jameer Gibbs, but a Jameer Gibbs type who's catching all those passes and having great success as a rusher.
- [25:16]
Unknown Speaker
Yeah, I, I think he's amazing and his spot couldn't be better. It's one of those deceptive spots. A lot of people said, oh, when it happened like this, you know, he's landing with Ramandre, but you think about it, contract extension and, or not. And it's really just like a one year thing for Stevenson anyway, they could cut him, but this is a situation where, you know, close your eyes and picture yourself, you know, a month before the draft, where was Najee going? Even though we knew that they're probably drafting a running back. He was going around 4 or 5 right. Where was Stevenson going when no one really thought that New England would grab one of the big dogs. He's going what, 9, 10. Nobody had faith in Stevenson. I don't know why all of a sudden he's a problem. Henderson is. I I don't think you're wrong to talk about Jamari Gibbs when you talk about Henderson. This is a running back. You want to have a monty. These teams run the ball 400 to 450, 400 whatever amount of times you're wanting Hendy to get probably 190, 185, 210 touch, you know, carries and then four receptions, five receptions a game. That's Breeze Hall. That's where Breece Hall's at his best which I think is also a running back complete completely undervalued this year where the risk is completely baked in because you want him catch, you want him in that Jameer Gibbs, you know role. And the jets are going to run more back to to Hendy. Same thing Gibbs, hall and Hendy are all players that they need to be in these so called committees that are not even committees. They're workhorse Alvin Camara roles that require more work up the gut Mostert was used so much the year that hn was the league's historical top yards per carry running back in the in the National Football League in the history of National Football League 7.8 yards of carry that he was at his best when Mostert was getting the grunt work. So Hendy is going to have an unbelievable career unbelievable season and as you alluded to his pass blocking potential and upside down that they drafted him for as they drafted offensive line to all protect Drake May. It's all about Drake May and Hendy will not you won't be able to keep them off the you'll have to keep them on the field. You won't be able to take them off the field.
- [27:30]
Heath Cummings
We we had a comment in the chat and I love it when they just lead us into the next discussion because Heart Choff says Harvey will probably see 60 catches too. I listen Sean Payton I think and I don't know maybe you expected Harvey to be drafted that early. I think Sean Payton took RJ Harvey even earlier in the NFL draft than most of the Harvey backers thought that Harvey should be drafted. So that that fact that you've got Peyton reaching for a running back it does put in people's minds oh is he going to have the Alvin Camaro role right Is he going to be that guy that's just thriving on passing downs? There's a little difference between him and Henderson in that Harvey doesn't, hasn't proven to be as valuable both in terms of receiving and in terms of past blocking as Henderson. And I know a lot of people will say, well, if you're playing in a Sean Payton offense, those guys aren't usually blocking anyway. But Javante Williams did a lot of pass blocking last year for Denver. It was, he wasn't very good when he had the ball. That's why he played so much is because he was doing a good job protecting the quarterback. Do you think Harvey at like as a rookie week one is able to walk into that full time passing downs role? And what type of committee do you think we see in Denver?
- [28:42]
Unknown Speaker
Yeah, I'm, I'm higher on Harvey. I'm not high on everybody. It seems like everyone we talked about, I'm just like, you know, I would.
- [28:49]
Heath Cummings
Much rather have you on to talk about guys you like than talk about guys that you don't.
- [28:53]
Unknown Speaker
This is good, this is good for everybody. I, I'm, I am probably, you know, critical of more players than people imagine right now just because we're talking about all my favorite guys. But Harvey, yeah, Harvey, I, I could care zero about him being 24 years old and if anything, the dynasty community is so hell bent on you turn 24, 25, you're gone like. And people don't, they play too far into the future. And Harvey, to me, he not, not only am I excited about who he is as a prospect going into the NFL draft and I, I was, I was thinking he was going to go in the second round, but I, I thought Scatter Boo would go higher too. I thought it's got. So I always love rookie running backs to, to a fault and I always think they're going to go higher than they go. So that's, that's one of my weaknesses. I think they're all super, you know, human. But I, I think you, you have him in a situation where you've seen what Alvin Camara could do under Sean Payton. You saw how all the reports about him gushing over Harvey and that he actually would have probably taken him higher, but they took in their mind a chance that he would fall. And when you think about it, Chicago had two opportunities to take Harvey or to take a running back in the running backs. I think the way they were falling, it was understandable that you would be concerned about Chicago saying let's go early on one of these guys and so they didn't and I, I believe they'll regret it. I think Harvey could easily be as good or better than Hendy his rookie year because only Genti is guaranteed more volume. I think even though Hendy will take complete, you know, control of the, of the, of the New England backfield from the perspective I described being a workhorse and I think Hampton will eventually as well Judkins could but he's, you know, sharing with a running back I had ranked higher than Judkins and Dylan Sampson and Caleb's in a timeshare. It really comes down to Harvey and Genti and then everybody else catching up. I think after his rookie year he will, he will be one of the more sought after running backs in the National Football League or in fantasy football. I think he could catch 60 passes with ease in that Sean Payton offense. They've already talked about designing receiving plays for him and talked about him being in every down back and estimate. And McLaughlin have already had their chance and didn't deliver. So much so that Peyton was rotating him like crazy last year. I think Harvey is a top six to 10 running back as a rookie.
- [31:20]
Heath Cummings
Wow. That's.
- [31:21]
Unknown Speaker
We.
- [31:21]
Heath Cummings
We'll clip that one and play it again in the middle of the year if you're right on that one because that, that is fantastic. That's the young guys. I look at my dynasty running back rankings, there's one guy over the age of 26 years old in my top 15 and that's Saquon Barkley because of what he did last year. But you get past the top 15 and there's a lot of names that have dominated the top five top ten of running back rankings for the last five to seven, eight years. Guys like Christian McCaffrey, Derrick Henry, Alvin Camara, Joe Mixon. All those guys somewhere around RB20 for me and Dynasty, they fooled us last year, right? Like they all kind of got to the age last year. Especially for dynasty managers. They were probably two years ago but to where we were supposed to start seeing some sort of decline. Especially particularly for guys changing teams that late in their career that hasn't. Hadn't worked out traditionally very well and they were awesome almost across the board except for McCaffrey who got hurt. Do you just have faith that these guys are so special that they're going to beat the odds again or are you trying to take advantage in your dynasty league of managers who feel that way and getting surplus value on because we know that Father Time's undefeated and eventually the decline's going to happen. Does it start, does it start happening for some of these guys in 2025?
- [32:51]
Unknown Speaker
Yeah, I, I think at the end of the day, 29 might be the, I call it the hold your breath year where you're like, okay, I'm gonna plug my nose, hold my breath and hope he gets through the one more year that was 28. But what it comes down to me, and this brings me back to Harvey, is it's more of a window of time for RB's six year shelf life. Whatever. You end up expecting it to be where you ex. You get that. And then everything else is gravy. And I get off the train before it derails more times than I stay on it. And so that's why I'm not on Derrick Henry this year, even though I understand it could burn me. But I'm not on Christian McCaffrey this year. I wasn't last year. He's one of my biggest avoids. And, and I think that, that we're going to see, you know, more injuries. His body just can't. Doesn't matter how, how strong his heart and soul is and determination. Same thing with Nick Chubb when he was jumping out of the gym a couple weeks ago. And we're like, oh, whoa, whoa. You know, you see that stuff, but it's different when you get on the field. And when you saw any Chubb, I don't know if you saw the footage of Chubb cutting and stuff, it looked.
- [33:51]
Heath Cummings
Like, oh, yeah, Christian Okoye going uphill doing those drills. I don't even understand how that's possible for a perfectly healthy, in their prime human being, much less after what Nick Chubb's been through.
- [34:01]
Unknown Speaker
But, but then you watch him on the field cutting and he looks slow and he looks luggage and it's just a different, it's just a different thing. Chubb is never going to be able to be the same, but he looks great in the gym. And so we get tricked a lot by seeing these guys in the gym and, you know, Derrick Henry going uphill and all. Derrick Henry's one of those players if you want to bank on someone going one more year, I have no problem with it at all. But I just see players like Bucky Irving, who's one of my favorite players this year, right around his adp. I see there's just other opportunities for me that have no little risk. Everybody's at risk. But. And so I just avoid it. But yeah, I think, I think that maybe we get another year out of our, our Window of expectation. But with, with Harvey, if you give him that six to seven year shelf life, that puts him at 29 when he's at the end of that six year shelf life. So that's why I have no concerns about him starting late at 24. It's not like he's been in the league two or three years, taking a decent amount of beating, letting his, you know, going through three NFL seasons, long, lengthy seasons, even if you don't play as much as the average Bear, you're still getting beat up. You're still getting worn down. He's literally 24 with zero miles on the odometer. So him going six years to 29, that puts him in age 29. I have no question about that at all. Maybe Hampton plays one more year than Harvey or maybe Hendy plays one more year than Harvey. And Hendy's not exactly the youngest either. That's it. That's the only thing I think we're affected by Harvey. People scared of Harvey because of his age. It. It is an opportunity. And. And just real quickly, because I didn't say it, he reminds me of Alvin Camaro. When I watch him play, he reminds me of Alvin Camara meets Bucky Irving. I think that's how Harvey looks. He's. He's angry. He. He is one of the most explosive rookies in this class. I think Genti is obviously top of. Of every category, but if we h. If we. If we have. I'm not saying we will because I. Genti's literally could be number one in Dynasty for me. If we have what happened last year where BTJ outscores neighbors. Yeah, Harvey's the guy that could get that done if. If it were to happen.
- [36:12]
Heath Cummings
Let's. Let's take a short break and then when we come back, we'll get to the wide receiver and tight end position.
- [36:18]
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- [36:43]
Unknown Speaker
Pro baller. Lonzo Ball for buzzballs ready to go. Cocktails. Take 12 buzzballs just dropped their biggest blue balls.
- [36:50]
Heath Cummings
Script says Biggie's blue balls.
- [36:52]
Unknown Speaker
Lonzo take 13 blue balls just dropped their biggest buzzballs.
- [36:56]
Heath Cummings
Ugh.
- [36:57]
Unknown Speaker
Try a vocal exercise. Buzz balls Biggies Blue balls Buzz balls Biggies Blue balls.
- [37:02]
Indeed Advertiser
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- [37:06]
Chevy Advertiser
This season with buzz balls please.
- [37:09]
Heath Cummings
You're responsibly Buzz balls available in spirit wine and malt 15 alcohol by volume. Buzzballs LLC, Carrollton, Texas we are back and it is time to talk about the wide receiver position. When you're talking about the rookies, I don't know if there's there's nobody that's been talked about more than Travis Hunter and we spent all this time before the draft wondering like well, how much wide receiver is going to put. Well, somebody just draft him as a cornerback. I can't control myself right now with my Travis Hunter ranking because everything went even better than I could have imagined that it would have. Not only is his team playing him Almost exclusively in OTAs at wide receiver, but he also they traded up for him and they have Trevor Lawrence and they've got a great new offensive or great new head coach who's proven the ability to produce two elite wide receivers in fantasy. So I know that when people see my ranking of Travis Hunter as a top 12 dynasty wide receiver already, it seems a little bit high. So I'll just ask you, does Travis Hunter deserve to be ranked between Marvin Harrison Jr. And lad McConkey in Dynasty?
- [38:13]
Unknown Speaker
For sure. I think out of all the wide receivers and again it sounds like I'm such an optimistic, optimistic person, but believe me, I'm not. I believe Hunter is the one of the probably the final wide receiver in redraft or best ball that you can grab that has wide receiver one fantasy value. Not not overall. But why receiver one top 12 so he's the final guy. So if you were to go RB RBRB Jaden Daniels and you skipped out on drafting wide receiver did the dreaded zero wide receiver move you could take Hunter and Debo as your top two wide receivers and I would actually look at you and say that that's actually you skated out of that just fine. I think Hunter and you probably the question you get most heath other than you know what time is it is hey is T law top 5 QB to you if you love BT and Hunter this much, I get that question a lot too. But that doesn't necessarily have to be the case because if you give 14 TDs to BT and 12 to Travis Hunter, like you're still don't have to be a top five quarterback necessarily to feed that. But I I think Travis Hunter is is very capable of not only being as good as BT but having some sort of you know, rotational thing. I don't think this is T. Higgins and Jamar Chase where Hunter's the. The T. Higgins. I think this is two monsters. And what. They both can't be number four on the year. I get that. But there will be years where, where I think Travis Hunter and BT are just like this. And it might lower BT to wide receiver 6 instead of 4 this year. But I think Travis Hunter does crack the top 12. I.
- [39:57]
Heath Cummings
And I think there's a, There's a good chance that we have a year or two. Like you say, that Hunter is actually better than Brian Thomas. That the, the question that I get a lot is, well, who's going to be the Godwin in the offense? And because I think people think like, one of these guys is probably going downfield more and maybe making more big plays and maybe scoring more touchdowns and one of these guys earning more targets underneath, I kind of think it might be Hunter seeing more of those Godwin like targets and doing things after the catch. And I'm going to be pretty excited about him both for Redraft and for Dynasty. And again, when I say I'm putting him close to Marvin Harrison, remember this is the guy that I'm talking to that's really excited about Marvin Harrison this year as well. So it's not like he's down on Marvin Harrison, and that's why he thinks Hunter should be up there.
- [40:42]
Chevy Advertiser
You.
- [40:42]
Heath Cummings
You really like both these guys. I, I do want to move on to the second wide receiver question. No, go ahead.
- [40:48]
Unknown Speaker
Quickly, though. You, you, you know, you talked about how excited you were about the situation and all coming together. Yeah, I mean, to go up and get him and, and blow everybody's, you know, expectation of where Hunter is going to land, to be an offensive architect like Liam Cohen, who did amazing things with Bucky, bringing Baker back from the dead. Trevor Lawrence and Baker, that's a blueprint. You're just going to transfer right over. Can I revive Trevor Lawrence? But to have somebody who's excited about Travis Hunter's wide receiver journey. Yeah, you couldn't find a better coach and situation than this situation. So you, you hit it a nail on the head there by saying they couldn't have come together better. There is no. We would have maybe been having more of that. How much wide receivers he played. As soon as he landed in Jacksonville, it was, he's a wide receiver. I don't want to hear anything about it. And all the people that. I'm sure you loved him too, all offseason, I didn't care about any of that. I knew he's going to play wide receiver enough and you could take advantage of it in best ball for a long time. And now he's going around four. He was going in eight, nine back when before the draft. So people cleaned up on that. It was amazing.
- [41:58]
Heath Cummings
And he's going two overall in some rookie drafts. And I, I don't, I don't even hate it. The second wide receiver question we talked about your expectations for my homes bounce back this year. I think a lot of people have questions not just for this year, but in dynasty, particularly Rashi Rice or Xavier Worthy. I think the best we've seen from Rice has been better than the best we've seen from Worthy. But Rice has some potential legal problems. He may be dealing. Rice has a knee reconstruction that he's trying to recover from. And like Rice, we saw Worthy, it was those last five or six games where he really just like emerged into his own role in the offense. So do you have a strong preference between Rice and Worthy, who are back to back in my dynasty wide receiver rankings?
- [42:48]
Unknown Speaker
I mean, I, I find it funny when people reference their, their rankings, you know, and talk about it so concretely by the hour. I'm changing on stuff like this. But I think the thing about Rice is he had an exterior knee injury. It was an interior. So that's a huge difference is the LCL on the outside. And so it's not like they had to drill into the knee and have, you know, any sort of like ACL would have been a bigger thing. He already looks 100%. I believe Rice was on his way and I felt this way before the injury, on his way to being a top five to seven wide receiver in the National Football League, at least from a fantasy perspective, you could say. And, and he looked amazing. He looked absolutely amazing. He looked part. It was early. He got injured early. So there wasn't a huge sample to really extrapolate. But he was on his way. And I think Worthy, yeah, he complicated things when in the final five played games, talking about two regular season games. He didn't play the last game, but his two played regular season games and his three playoff games were the first game of the three playoff games. He didn't really do anything. He had like 60 yards. That was it. You extrapolate those five games divided by five, then multiplied by 17, that point total, which is. It's just fun math. It's not science. But it would rank him. I believe it was number two out of all fantasy football wide receivers on those five games alone. So it's confusing but this is, this goes back to my Patrick Mahomes is going to the moon this year at six to seven round value and people that it's going to be the most biggest blunder in retrospect. ADP Mahomes I would, if I had to give give a nod, I'd say Rice right by a hair. I don't think he gets suspended this year. Everything I'm hearing and you know, as I said, I go live on this stuff whenever it happens. There's nothing, there's been not a shred of anything, you know, occurring on on the Rice front. I don't think. I think it gets pushed back a year. I think no one cares about it right now anyway. And and so I'm taking a Rice if I have to take one over the other.
- [44:53]
Heath Cummings
But you'd like to draft both and and I think yeah, I think that's I was pretty encouraged by Rice in terms of the videos we were seeing and like the stuff he was doing already. There was a little blurb that came out after the Chiefs took Jalen Royals late about how they think he can kind of COVID for Rice as he works through his recovery and I, I didn't like that. But it was also just one little blurb and I'm not sure that it actually meant that Rice wouldn't be ready for the start of the season. So.
- [45:24]
Unknown Speaker
Right.
- [45:25]
Heath Cummings
Both of these guys I think have more upside than where they're being drafted. Both of these guys top 20 dynasty wide receivers for me would not be surprised. I think whoever is the best Chiefs wide receiver the first month of the season is probably going to be a top 12 guy in Dynasty rankings after that first month because they're being held down a little bit because of concerns about the other one.
- [45:47]
Unknown Speaker
Where do you rank them if you decide to spitball a number in terms of the best receiving group and you clue Kelsey, even if he's aging, whatever or Kelsey Gray as a combo. Where do you rank the Chiefs receiving room? Would you say like top five? Top seven?
- [46:05]
Heath Cummings
It's certainly better than it's been the last three years going into the year, but I think with Marquis Brown there as well then they they've got some other vets in the room. I think it's got to be top seven. Top five might be tough but it probably it also that will be dependent on if if rice is 100 for week one and the same guy he's been and worthy carries over that success from the second half of last year, then it might be top three. Like, it's there, there's a, there's, there's more. I think there's, there's a lot of upside and downside probably for those guys, because if Rice comes in and averages 10 targets per game, Worthy is probably going to take a little step back from what we saw last year, and he may not be quite worth where he's being ranked.
- [46:48]
Unknown Speaker
BTJ and Hunter, top five wide receiver.
- [46:51]
Heath Cummings
Room, They've got to be.
- [46:52]
Unknown Speaker
Yeah, it's crazy. Chase and Higgins and.
- [46:57]
Heath Cummings
Well, that's why I was so like when. And I know, like CD Lamb's incredible.
- [47:00]
Unknown Speaker
Yeah.
- [47:01]
Heath Cummings
But when Pickens went to Dallas, a lot of people saying, well, does Dallas have the best receiving room now? I was like, well, there's a lot of really good receiving rooms right now up there too. Yes, they're up there as well. But I'm not, I, I'm not sure I'm quite as high on that group as, as the others. We're only going to ask one question at the tight end position because I get really annoyed with trying to pretend like this is anything other than the haves and the have nots. And every year it seems like, oh, the position's getting deeper now it's going to be good. In Dynasty, there's a, from what I've seen in the rankings, there's a pretty clear top five, especially consensus wide. It's Bowers, it's McBride, it's LaPorta, it's Loveland, and it's Warren. And then if you don't have one of those guys, you're probably going with a TJ Hawkinson or just a win now guy like a Kiddle or a Dave and a Joku maybe. You still think Mark Andrews is that. Are there any other young tight ends besides Bowers, McBride, LaPorta, Loveland and Warren that you think are ever going to be must start options?
- [48:01]
Unknown Speaker
So I think like 2, 2, 2 that come to mind off the top of my head, I could be leaving out somebody in between. But like, Likely and Kraft are two really nice ones. But if I could dig even deeper, you, you mentioned in Joku, I think Harold Fanning Jr. Could be the LaPorta of this draft class at the tight end position. I mean, he, he was almost a triple crown winner out of all the wide receivers and tight ends. He was number one over Jeremiah Smith, Ted McMillan, Travis Hunter in receptions and yards. And, and he had 10 touchdowns, which puts him, I think it was 13th. He was tied for 13th. But he was almost the triple crown winner against wide receivers. So he's a talent and they drafted him in the second round.
- [48:46]
Heath Cummings
Nobody likes Harold Fannon more than me. So you are absolutely appreciable. These guys, these guys are basically saying, so Heath just brought this guy on so he can say good things about Harold Fanon? No, I think it's a great landing spot. People worried about Najoku.
- [48:59]
Unknown Speaker
He's.
- [49:00]
Heath Cummings
He's got one year left on his contract. He could be gone after next year and Fannin could just be the tight end one there. I, I love that answer and I hope that's right because I have him on way too many Dynasty teams and, and Shador once.
- [49:11]
Unknown Speaker
Once. If the Browns don't screw it up and they're certainly capable of it, once Shador gets into the lineup and he's the best quarterback on the roster by far, they're gonna, they're gonna build a rapport together. That's what you love when there's a young incoming pass catcher with a young incoming rookie qb. They're going to be practicing together, you know, from the beginning and rise up together. So I, I really think Fannin Jr. Could be the Laporta for sure in this class. The only other guy I can think of, you know, do we give Kyle Pitts another chance with Penix Jr. That's, it's the, the question I think we ask every year. But I don't know. I don't know.
- [49:49]
Heath Cummings
I would, I would again in Dynasty. Right now. I would rather have craft than pits for sure. The other, the other name. I don't who. The other name you said was likely. I, I would take pits over likely just because I don't think Andrews is going anywhere. And so like maybe we get likely as a standalone starter at age 26 for the first time.
- [50:13]
Unknown Speaker
Well, what's nice is the Andrews is so cheap in Dynasty because he's old. You can grab them both and you kind of COVID yourself. So it's actually a good coffin. Dynasty.
- [50:21]
Heath Cummings
Fantastic stuff today, Smitty. Really appreciate you coming on the show.
- [50:26]
Unknown Speaker
Yeah.
- [50:26]
Heath Cummings
Bringing all, all the takes. Agreeing with me so often. That's always fun.
- [50:30]
Unknown Speaker
No, that was part of the requirement. Right.
- [50:34]
Heath Cummings
Tell everybody once more here at the end where they can find your show and what you got going on.
- [50:39]
Unknown Speaker
Yeah. YouTube.com fantasy football show if you wanna. If anything. And I'd love to have Heath on anytime you want to come on if one of your favorite topics comes up breaking news wise is, you know, DM me or whatever. But whatever news breaks I like to think I'm the first person live. That's kind of the mantra.
- [50:58]
Heath Cummings
Awesome, awesome stuff, guys. Go check that out. We are done for now. Thank you to Harry also for making everything work. Thank you to everybody who was active in the chat. Definitely had some new faces in there today. And we will talk to you on Friday. With the return of Jacob Gibbs.
- [51:24]
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