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Rankings Debates! CMC or Kyren Williams? JSN or Ladd McConkey? Plus More NFL Draft Reaction with Alfredo Brown of FootballGuys (05/01 Fantasy Football Podcast)
01:08:56
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- [00:01]
Adam
Fellas, you know degree Cool Rush deodorant, right?
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Dave
Well, last year they changed the formula and guys were mad about it. One dude even started a petition. So guess what? Degree heard us, admitted they messed up.
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Adam
And brought the original Cool Rush scent.
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Dave
Back exactly how it was.
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Adam
And it's in Walmart, Target, and other.
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Dave
Stores now for under $4. So grab some and remember why its cool, crisp and fresh scent made it the number one men's antiperspirant for the last decade.
- [00:26]
Adam
Degree Cool Rush is back, and it smells like victory for all of us.
- [00:30]
Dave
This episode is brought to you by State Farm.
- [00:33]
Adam
You might say all kinds of stuff when things go wrong, but these are.
- [00:36]
Dave
The words you really need to remember. Like a good neighbor, State Farm is there. They've got options to fit your unique insurance needs, meaning you can talk to your agent to choose the coverage you need. Have coverage options to protect the things you value most, File a claim right.
- [00:52]
Adam
On the State Farm mobile app, and.
- [00:54]
Dave
Even reach a real person when you need to talk to someone.
- [00:56]
Adam
Like a good neighbor, State Farm is there. This is Fantasy Football Today from CBS Sports.
- [01:03]
Dave
What a play.
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Jamie
Can you believe this? No, I can't.
- [01:08]
Adam
It's time to dominate your fantasy league.
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Dave
Off to the races and he stays at his feet. This is gonna go the distance. Now here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie and Heath.
- [01:21]
Adam
Welcome to the show. Fantasy football today. It is May. May 1st. You know, training camp is, like, right around the corner, people. We welcome you. You've heard us talk about the NFL draft and. And the rankings and all that for a while now. For a week. You're tired of. I'm sick of Dave and Jamie. I know you must be also. So we're bringing in. Bringing in an outsider to get some fresh perspective. We've got Alfredo Brown of football guys joining us. Welcome, Alfredo, thanks for coming on, man.
- [01:48]
Dave
Yeah, thanks for having me on here. It's. It's very welcoming when I hear that. I'm here because everyone else is sick of the other people, so it's super exciting to. To jump in as the six man.
- [01:57]
Alfredo
So.
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Dave
Yeah.
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Adam
Did you get a prank call during the draft? Were you spared?
- [02:01]
Dave
No, no, I was one of the lucky few that didn't.
- [02:03]
Adam
Okay, good. Yes.
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Jamie
I would have thought Joey would have prank called you at some point.
- [02:07]
Dave
Oh, God, no. I just. I sent him right to voicemail.
- [02:11]
Adam
Comment in the chat from Zed. I am sick of Adam too. Yeah, yeah, I know. Everyone's sick. We're sick of. Sick of all of us. So. So Alfredo's Here real quick, before we get into your rankings risers and followers, I've got some rankings disputes. Here's the six that we're gonna get into. Lab McConkey versus JSN, Rasheed Rice versus Xavier Worthy, Chris Godwin versus Mike Evans, Christian McCaffrey versus Kyron Williams, Jonathan Taylor versus Bucky Irving, and Breece hall versus Alvin Camara. And obviously we'll talk about the NFL draft and what Alfredo thinks. But tell us about the football guys rookie guide.
- [02:44]
Dave
Yeah, football guys rookie guide. We've been working on this. This is not going to be our third version that's getting released post draft with everything updated. We've added all the fantasy outlooks, team depth charts, everything from our original pre draft scouting reports are there. And we've been doing this since January. We or February. We came out like right the day after the Super Bowl. So this was, this is big for us and it's been free this whole time. Now is going to be the first time that we're asking you to, you know, just put in a little bit of money for it. But we put in a lot of work for it. So over@footballguys.com rookie guide, how much money are we talking?
- [03:14]
Alfredo
Like 99 bucks somewhere around there.
- [03:17]
Dave
Probably closer to like 9 bucks.
- [03:21]
Alfredo
Okay, that's a good deal then. Feels better about. Yeah. Nice.
- [03:25]
Adam
Yeah, thanks.
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Dave
That's what you do. You, you, you put it really high and then when I finally give you the number, just feels a lot better.
- [03:29]
Alfredo
Yeah, you should sell cars. That'll work out nicely for everybody.
- [03:34]
Dave
Plan b after this.
- [03:35]
Adam
8.99. I think you should do like list some guides for $9 and some for 8.99 and see if there's any difference. Because I've always wondered if that really works, if that trick really works. But we'll find out some other time. All right, here's what I want to do real quick. I want to tell you where some of the rookies went in the draft that we did. I know Dave, you're sick of me. I get it. The draft that we did on Tuesday.
- [03:55]
Alfredo
Been a long 20 years.
- [03:57]
Adam
Tell me what you think. Ashton Genti went ninth overall. He was RB5 after Barkley was the third pick. Then Bijan was fourth. Gibbs was sixth, A Chan was eighth. Genty was ninth. Genti went ahead of Malik Neighbors, Puka Nakua, Nico Collins. This was a PPR league. What do you think?
- [04:16]
Dave
That sounds about right in the running back rankings. I think I might. I was talking about this with my co host the other day. That I. I start to get worried that we overvalue these top rookie running backs a lot because we just haven't seen any of them really perform to where we want them to. And we do this a lot with rookies. And I'm almost willing to step in that bear trap again because G feels a little bit different. Like there's just so much volume that's going to be there in that offense. So I think it's kind of wishy washy. Like I might take Puka over him. But then you've got Devonte Adams in there. So I'm kind of comfortable with where he's going in drafts right now.
- [04:50]
Adam
Okay. Then we had Travis Hunter. This was the controversial one. He went 34th overall. He was wide receiver 15. Travis Hunter, what do you think? He went just ahead of Terry McLaurin, Rasheed Rice and Garrett Wilson. Those were the next three picks.
- [05:06]
Dave
I like Travis Hunter a lot. I think he's going to get used a lot in the screen game and get a lot of easy targets and we might see a Rasheed Rice kind of profile for Travis Hunter. I don't know. I'm willing to take him at wide receiver 15, though. I'm probably going to have him somewhere around like wide receiver 20, 23 in that range. There's. There's just too many good names at wide receiver this year for me to put Travis Hunter that high. Can Trevor Lawrence support two wide receivers? Maybe with Evan Ingram gone. But yeah, I'm not in love with that ADP guys.
- [05:36]
Adam
I thought about it yesterday after the show and I putting it down right now on this, on our podcast, some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie, Heath. I am the Travis Hunter guy. I will be taking him in all of our drafts until everybody catches on and everybody starts taking him ahead of where I'm willing to take him. Like what happened with Neighbors last year. I probably should have just taken him anyway. But right now, I'm telling you, you guys are way too low on Travis Hunter. I am the Travis Hunter guy and you will not be getting him in any of our mocks.
- [06:01]
Jamie
Where are you willing to take him?
- [06:03]
Adam
Yeah, a little bit later than this. Like the three, four. I would have taken Terry McLaurin ahead of him. Actually, I think I'm pretty much fine with him at like the 3, 4 turn. McLaurin is the only one that I easily would take ahead of Travis Hunter. Rishi Rice, we'll talk about later. If he's healthy, you know, then that changes things. But we won't really know how Healthy is because everybody's lying all the time about that. But yeah, I think this is a good spot. I think 3, 4 turn is good for Hunter in a 12 team league.
- [06:30]
Alfredo
Where are you taking Trevor Lawrence?
- [06:33]
Adam
Yeah, as probably my backup quarterback, but you know, QB. Yeah, top 15ish kind of guy. There's so many, there's so many good quarterbacks. All right. And then we had, I'll just end it with this, the, the running back run. We had Omari and Hampton late round four and then it was RJ Harvey, Travion Henderson kind of late round five and then Caleb Johnson, Quinn, Sean Judkins and mid to late round six. So a two round gap between Hampton and Judkins and in the middle you have Harvey Henderson, Caleb Johnson. Your thoughts on those five rookie running backs?
- [07:14]
Dave
They all seem about right. I'm starting to feel like I'm one of the only people that's really excited about Caleb Johnson on the Steelers just because of the perceived volume he could still get. Maybe I'm wrong. That's my circle of football guys. People are not as excited. It seems about right. But it also seems like there's a lot of rookie fever in the air and some of these guys might start dropping a little bit more like 10 or 12 spots by the time we get around to draft season. But the order sounds about right.
- [07:41]
Adam
Yeah, I almost missed work today with rookie fever. Actually it's, it's going right. Come on guys, give me something. David, JB and you guys want to. Jamie, what do you think about Caleb Johnson and the volume that Alfredo's excited for?
- [07:56]
Jamie
I mean it's, it's certainly possible. You know, we've, we've talked about this since he was drafted. You know, is he going to just step into Najee Harris's role and get the 260, you know, some odd carries that he, that he got. I would probably put it closer to around 200, 215. You know, just because I think Jalen Warren will get a little bit more work than what we saw last year by comparison to 2023. But yeah, he's, he's in a very positive situation. You know, the fact that the Steelers had such little draft capital and they decided to go get him with their third round pick. You know, I think it's pretty telling that they wanted to get a bell cow of his caliber and he fits that role. So I, to Alfredo's point, you know, about putting too much expectations on, on rookies, like to ask him to be a 250 plus carry guy in his rookie campaign, Arthur Smith was hesitant with Bijan Robinson, you know, so is he going to do this with Caleb Johnson? I'm a little bit concerned, but I think this range, you know, it's he belongs in this range for sure.
- [08:53]
Adam
All right, cool. So we'll get some rankings risers and followers from Alfredo Post NFL Draft Real quick news and notes. Buffalo signed wide receiver Elijah Moore to a one year, $5 million deal. Dav any effect on Khalil Shakir or anyone else in that passing game?
- [09:09]
Alfredo
I doubt it. I think he's probably there to be just a short area target type guy for them. They've got another one of them now. I don't see myself drafting Elijah Moore.
- [09:19]
Adam
The Falcons exercise Drake London's fifth year option for 2026 jets quarterback Jordan Travis is unfortunately retiring due to a leg injury that he hasn't been able to fully recover from. He suffered that in college and then FSU got totally hosed and left out of the playoff a couple years ago. But sad to see Jordan Travis unfortunately won't be able to resume his football career. And then Dave, you sent me an article about Marvin Harrison Jr. And what they're saying about him. So give us the scoop there.
- [09:45]
Alfredo
Jonathan Gannon mentioned that he's that Harrison gave Gannon a list of things he needed to improve on, not the other way around. Usually when the season ends, the coaches tell the players, okay, here are the two or three things that you need to really work on. Harrison gave it to Gannon and and there's footage now, or at least pictures of Marvin Harrison. He's bulked up a little bit and Gannon's very excited about this. And look, usually when you hear about a player getting stronger adding muscle, that doesn't mean he's going to get faster. Maybe he'll play a little bit more free because he's not thinking as much. But if, if they're bulking him up, that makes me think that they're going to lower that a dot and he's going to have a bunch of opportunities that are not 12 yards downfield but are now like 8 or 9 yards downfield and give him contested catch opportunities. He can win those. He's got really good size as it is now. If he's adding muscle, that's good too. Volume is the name of the game. Last year he averaged 6.8 targets per game. That number's got a little closer to 7.5 this year if Marvin's going to take a leap. But Gannon thinks that he's going to take a leap. Sounds like Gannon's his biggest cheerleader right now. We'll see what happens. But it's mildly encouraging for Marvin Harrison.
- [10:56]
Jamie
He definitely was very glowing about him at the owners meetings. And, you know, I, I think. And again, going back to what Alfredo said about rookies, you know, think about where we were with Marvin Harrison in draft season last year. You know, taking him in the second round in a lot of cases as, you know, top 10 wide receiver. I don't know where you guys came out on it, Alfredo with football guys, but I know we were probably too high on him, clearly, based on the performance. But, you know, when I asked Gannon about it, you know, was he disappointed in his rookie season? You know, we've talked about this a little bit. You know, he said no. And I think that's just kind of more putting what a rookie typically does in perspective and seeing, you know, the, the positives and trying to build off that. And, you know, to Dave's, you know, point about what he was saying, like, they. They don't think he was a failure. We have him as a failure because of where the expectations were, you know, and I think that's kind of, you know, thinking about Travis Hunter and then maybe Malik Neighbors, you know, and just how these two guys, one performed, you know, maybe outperformed his expectations in terms of neighbors. Can. Can Travis Hunter do that? Can and Ashton Genti do that? With the expectations we're putting on him as fantasy managers and, and fantasy analysts? I think just in the. In the case of. Of Harrison, I'll also go back to something Zach Taylor once told me, which was the year two for all players. Specifically, he was talking about Jamar Chase, but all players. The whirlwind of prepping for the draft. Now, this really didn't happen to Harrison, but the combine training these guys go to, which is no football stuff whatsoever. It's just learning how to get faster and, you know, jump higher, all those things. Then they get drafted, then they got to find a place to live, then they got to go straight into, you know, mini camps and rookie camps and all these things, and there's no break for them at all. And then they start to actually do football training and going into year two, which just seems like what Harrison is probably doing right now. I would expect him to be better based on the prospect that he was. And we may underdraft him now, which would be awesome if you're going to get the type of player that we were hoping for last year.
- [12:47]
Adam
Alfredo Are you going with Travis Hunter or Marvin Harrison Jr. Oh, that's a fun one.
- [12:54]
Dave
Marvin Harrison Jr. I think because of the reason that Jamie just said there at the end is I think that people are going to be undervaluing Harrison based on the perceived failure of the rookie season. Whereas I think a lot of people are going to be a little more excited to get Travis Hunter because of the mythos that has been create the lore of Travis Hunter, that he plays both ways. He's such a cool prospect. And I think as much as I love Hunter, we might be overvaluing him for fantasy, for something that's not going to get him any points. So Harrison probably for me will end up being the better value value in drafts.
- [13:23]
Adam
All right, we're gonna take a quick break and come back and hear some of Alfredo's rankings risers and fallers, then get into those rankings debates a little bit later. We'll be right back. On fantasy football today, pro baller Lonzo.
- [13:35]
Alfredo
Ball for buzz balls.
- [13:36]
Dave
Ready to go.
- [13:36]
Alfredo
Cocktails take 12 buzz balls just dropped.
- [13:39]
Jamie
Their biggest blue balls.
- [13:40]
Alfredo
Script says Biggie's blue balls. Lonzo take 13 blue balls just dropped.
- [13:45]
Dave
Their biggest buzz balls. Let's try a vocal exercise.
- [13:49]
Adam
Buzz balls, Biggies.
- [13:50]
Alfredo
Blue balls. Buzz balls. Biggies. Blue ball Rock get blue balls this season with Buzzball.
- [13:59]
Dave
Please shoot responsibly. Buzzball's available in spirit wine and malt, 50% Alco Bavo and Buzzballs LLC.
- [14:03]
Alfredo
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- [14:34]
Adam
All right, Alfredo, so whether it was a rookie or a veteran, when you came out with your post NFL draft rankings, what are some things that really stood out to you?
- [14:46]
Dave
Well, we had some of the obvious winners which a lot of these running backs like the, the Chase Browns and the DeAndre Swifts that we thought they'd get replaced or get someone in there and then they didn't. But one of the guys for me that stood out because I, I haven't ranked him as high as I normally have or as as much as Everyone else in previous years, but this year I'm a little bit more in on Garrett Wilson, who I've got around that wide receiver 15 to 17 range for me. At first I was kind of rolling my eyes that great. Here we go. Justin Fields running an offense again. And now I'm just starting to look at. Well outside of Mason Taylor, they don't really have another pass catcher on the team. You can include the running backs in that, but now they're talking about that even being some sort of three headed backfield. We don't know if Bree hall is actually going to stay there. I would assume he does, but Garrett Wilson seems like the only surefire piece in this offense that's just going to get peppered with targets. And so you start to think of how good DJ Moore was for fantasy with Justin Fields when he was starting back in 2013. And yeah, I mean the ceiling's there for Garrett Wilson to be a guy that's like a top 10 wide receiver. I'm not drafting him there, but I think you can. I'm going to have him ranked some around wide receiver 15, 16. And based on how upset people are about last year, you could probably draft them around wide receiver 17 or 18. So you're going to get a great value with him.
- [15:57]
Jamie
It's almost exactly how it played out. I had him as wide receiver. Hunter was 15, 16, 17, 18 and I, I took him at the turn, the, the three, four turn. So thrilled with that. I, I totally agree.
- [16:07]
Dave
Yeah.
- [16:08]
Adam
So here's, here's my issue, right? He's a tough one. The only time in his three year career in which Garrett Wilson has performed like a top 15 wide receiver or even a top 18 wide receiver was the first six games of the 2024 season with Aaron Rodgers when Aaron Rodgers was averaging 36 pass attempts per game. And in those games, Garrett Wilson was the number 13 wide receiver per game on pace for 190 targets. So really not even good. I mean you get 190 targets and you turn that into wide receiver 13. That's not that impressive. In his career, the first two years he was wide receiver 31 per game and wide receiver 33 per game. Last year, Garrett Wilson ended up as wide receiver 19 per game. But a big difference between before Adams and with Adams. So I just. What is different for Garrett Wilson this year? You know, he's not getting a quarterback upgrade. It's going to be kind of similar to what he had the first two seasons. He hasn't shown an ability to make big plays and that is. And I feel like he has that ability, but he just, I don't know, he just hasn't shown it really. And that is what DJ Moore did that year with Justin Fields, when DJ Moore was unbelievable. He made a bunch of big plays, he scored some, some long touchdowns. Garrett Wilson hasn't done that in his career. So it's like, I want to believe in Garrett Wilson. We expect to break out, but he's already been in this situation for pretty much his entire career and he hasn't, he hasn't done anything to justify being a top 20 wide receiver. Alfredo?
- [17:49]
Dave
Yeah, I'd say the way you're talking about Garrett Wilson is probably the way a lot of us were talking about DJ Moore two years ago as well, is that he hadn't really done anything with all these targets that he kept getting and hearing the Aaron Rodgers thing. Like, I'm also getting all the nightmares of last year of how inefficient that offense was and how Rogers and Wilson really just weren't on the same page. So it's like if you get a lot of targets, but they're bad targets or they're just off, there's something off between them. It's not quite as valuable. I'm not suggesting that Justin Fields is going to come in here and be hyper efficient quarterback, but I do have to think that if Fields is going to be their option here, the offense itself might be, I don't want to say dumbed down, but it might be a little more simplified where it's okay, we're going to run the ball and siphon targets to Garrett Wilson in the easiest way possible. Last year just seemed like a lot of backyard football with Aaron Rodgers trying to see how can I get the, the, the best play out of this when that's not really what was scripted. I think Justin Fields probably sticks to the script a little more.
- [18:45]
Jamie
I was just gonna also think, just from the standpoint of, you know, we're hoping clearly, and it's an easier correlation. The Lions offense just moves to Chicago, right, Because Ben Johnson's going there and everything that he does well, they're bringing in one of the Lions coaches to New York and to run this offense and hopefully there's going to be some better play calling. I think that was a lot of the problem last year was like the, the system was awful for the Jets. Now granted, again, Wilson's getting opportunities to your point, Adam, and he wasn't dealing with it, but I think, you know, just to kind of piggyback on what Alfredo said, like, we're not drafting him. You don't have to draft him even as wide receiver. 15, you know, I, I think his ADP will probably settle between 15 and 20. It's still tremendous upside if he, if he hits. And so he's still going to get, I don't know, 190, but I would think around 150.
- [19:38]
Adam
Oh, man, I, I have to disagree because. So I'll just give you two numbers. DJ Moore. In just the games he played with. Forget the Bajan games. Just the, the DJ Moore, Justin Fields games, he was on pace for 140 targets.
- [19:51]
Jamie
But they had better options in that passing game than the jets did.
- [19:54]
Adam
Well, the Steelers sure didn't. And George Pickens was on pace for 125 targets.
- [19:58]
Jamie
Yeah, but they handcuffed Justin Field so much last year. I don't think the jets do the same. I mean, they went out and they paid him like the, the Steelers got him for nothing. And it was basically like you're holding the spot until Russell's healthy.
- [20:08]
Alfredo
Their plan might be to not handcuff him, but if, if he loses games for them and remember, he's got a losing record as a starter and it's like significant. And if he starts losing games early on, I don't know if they're really going to turn to the bench and put to Rod Taylor in. I believe he's their backup.
- [20:25]
Adam
Yeah, he is. And I like that.
- [20:27]
Alfredo
So I don't know if they're going to do that or if they're just going to try and simplify things and just become like the most conservative, boring offense in the league. And that would obviously hurt Garrett Wilson. I've got him closer to 20th than I do to 15th. He's still a number two wide receiver. It's based solely on that target volume, though. That's it.
- [20:45]
Adam
Tell me if you agree with this. Garrett Wilson went, like I said, he was in that Travis Hunter 34 turn range. In fact, if he went at the turn, first pick of round four, Garrett Wilson is not that much better. Agree or disagree? He's not that much better on draft day right now than Chris Olave or DK Metcalf. And they went two rounds after him.
- [21:12]
Alfredo
You think? No, I think he's better. I think he's got a chance to see more targets. And listen, I, I said all he's got is target volume. It's not true. He's also a very talented wide receiver. It's just a rough quarterback situation. Olave has A rough quarterback situation and he doesn't the same type of target track record that Garrett Wilson's had. Look at what Garrett Wilson's average over nine targets per game each of the last two years. I'd be a little surprised if he gets that high again this year. I think eight is a closer number for him. But I Olave, I think he might have had like two games with seven or more last year.
- [21:43]
Adam
They didn't play that many. But. Okay, if Derek Carr is fully healthy for week one and gonna play, which I don't know if that's gonna happen, would you take Garrett Wilson or Olave and okay, you're all gonna take Garrett Wilson. How big of a gap will there be?
- [21:58]
Jamie
At least two rounds.
- [22:01]
Dave
Yeah, I was gonna say like a five or six player gap and wide receiver. That's about two rounds.
- [22:05]
Alfredo
Yeah, I've got them 20 spots apart in my rankings right now.
- [22:09]
Adam
But there's gotta be some of that has to be the car uncertainty, right?
- [22:13]
Alfredo
Sure. That's fair. Yeah, that's part of it.
- [22:15]
Dave
I think you also bake in a little bit of the AL concussions over and over and over. Yeah, even with, even with Carr, there was just no connection like they were, they were missing all the time. Carr was better with Shaheed, to be honest.
- [22:28]
Adam
That is true. Okay, you got another riser you want to talk about?
- [22:32]
Dave
Yeah, this one's kind of a cheat. It's. It's going to be these quarterbacks that we were either hoping they take the next step or worried they were going to fall back. And it's. It's guys like Baker Mayfield, Caleb Williams, Drake May, Trevor Lawrence. These guys, it's. It's more along the lines of they all got a good ecosystem around them. And the more I start to look at these teams and I go, okay, well who am I getting from the Bucks or who do I draft from the Jaguars? Who do I take from the Patriots? And I'm just like, you know what, I'm just going to see which one of these quarterbacks falls latest in my drafts. Because it feels like late round quarterback is still very much a thing at this point. It was last year and it feels like it's going to be that this year. And like Drake May, you could probably get him around like quarterback 16 or 17 and one of your very, very late picks in your draft and last year he was giving us starter production because of his rushing ability. Now you add in Trevion Henderson who can, you know, give them explosive plays. I don't really know how recovered Stefan Diggs is going to be or how into the offense Kyle Williams is going to be, but the, the added protection, the offensive line, it's just. He's just one of the examples. I think Caleb Williams is probably the guy that. Caleb Williams and Baker Mayfield are the two guys that rose the most for me out of this because the teams are just all in on helping those guys.
- [23:44]
Adam
You think a Buka plays a significant role this year?
- [23:49]
Dave
I think he might have to and I think he's probably going to be in the slot which I think is going to hurt Chris Godwin quite a bit and push him outside. But yeah, I think that Igbuka, who, I mean that's mostly what he did in college is play a lot of slot and it there. I'm not going to say that they're trying to revamp the offense, but when you lose your offensive coordinator and now you have another guy in who is being praised so highly as an offensive genius, he's kind of has to come in and outdo what the last guy did to look successful. So I wouldn't be surprised. This becomes a very pass heavy offense. He maybe overthinks things and Egbuka becomes a guy that's heavily used in that offense.
- [24:26]
Adam
Okay, you guys have any comments or shall we move on? I think we're all kind of in on those quarterbacks except great. Baker Mayfield's kind of interesting. The other guys are going to be late round picks. Baker might be qb, what, seven off the board, something like that. Alfredo, where do you. Do you know where you have him?
- [24:44]
Dave
Let me check. I think I had him around quarterback 8 for me, but prior to the draft I had him closer to like 9 or 10. Yeah, I think I moved Bo Nix down a little bit because of the AD of RJ Harvey who I think is going to take some of those goal line rush attempts away from Bo Nicks because he was running a lot near the end zone. So yeah, a Baker I think is going to be one of these guys that I'm going to have a little higher. I've got him at quarterback eight right now, just behind, just behind Caleb Williams.
- [25:14]
Adam
Okay. He was QB3 per game last year. Baker Mayfield in 6 point and QB4 per game and 4 point but would have been QB5 per game if Jalen Hurts didn't leave that one game with a concussion. Blah, blah, blah. All right, Any other you want to give me one more riser and we'll go to some fallers?
- [25:31]
Dave
Yeah, sure. This one we kind of already talked about him earlier in the show. But Khalil Shakir, I think is just the fun one. He was everyone's dirty little secret last year, and then he kind of ended up being a really safe and easy wide receiver three and I think that now he just gets to stay in that range in a wide receiver three range. And you can probably draft him at a discount because most of the people in fantasy league probably still don't know who Khalil Shakir is and they're just distracted about James Cook right now. And Kalishkir kind of remains the top wide receiver there in Buffalo. I know that they just signed Elijah Moore, but I think that's more of a worry for a guy like Curtis Samuel. Keon Coleman still has some developing to do. Dalton Kincaid hasn't quite come along. So yeah, Khalil Shakir, they didn't draft a wide receiver until the seventh round, so they seem to be very dedicated. I don't know if you guys heard, by the way, the Brandon Bean meltdown on the radio where he was cursing out Bills fans. Yeah, just like, what do you guys want? You want another receiver? And we scored all these points last year. We need defense. It's. It's really funny. But yeah, they seem to be all in on Kolshkir.
- [26:35]
Adam
I think the Bills fans have a point though, they could use. I mean, I just feel like they're playing a close competitive game with the Chiefs in the playoffs or something. Who's. Who do they go to? You know, who's the. Who's the guy? Who's the Stefan Diggs that's going to drop the beautifully thrown ball by Josh Allen? But no, I mean they, I think they do need a number one, but they don't have it. So Shakir, who had basically scored double digit PPR fantasy points every single time he, he lined up. I mean, and there were a couple games he left with an injury, but for the most part, double digits just about every single week for Khalil Shakir. All right, let's get to some rankings fallers for you, Alfredo, who headlines your rankings followers list.
- [27:14]
Dave
Yeah, this is sort of a sliding door situation where if, if Caleb Williams was rising for me because there's so many passing pass catchers, excuse me, in that offense for him. The Bears wide receivers sort of take a little bit of a dip with Colston Loveland there, Luther Burden there. The. The excitement from Ben Johnson about adding Luther Burden to me was just as great. As a person who really likes Luther Burden's skill set. I'm curious to See, there's been much to be made about who the slot is in a Ben Johnson offense, and that goes all the way back to his days in Miami with Jarvis Landry, even Danny Amendola being productive for fantasy. So I'm curious to see what happens there. I don't think it's a, a death sentence for DJ Moore, but I think it, it probably dings Roma dun a little bit more than we'd like to see him going into his second year. So the, the Bears wide receiver, wide receivers as a whole, I mean, Cole Commet's obviously another one as well, but yeah, that, that offense, it's going to be good for Caleb. It's going to be messy for the pass catchers.
- [28:13]
Adam
Just want to see one thing real quick and I look it up. The, The Bears ranked 27th in gross passing yards per game, 201 passing yards per game, not including sacks. And obviously there were a lot of those. And that's another thing, right? There's just a lot of drop backs that didn't even become passing yards because Caleb Williams was, was dropping back, was getting stacked so much. So how do we balance? Yeah, they've got more competition now with Loveland and Burden, but no Keenan Allen. Right. With there's potential for so much more passing production in this offense now and maybe it won't hurt Roma Dunes and DJ Moore, maybe they'll just will be enough to go around Alfredo because they, they could just be so much better offensively. And obviously they brought in all the offensive linemen as well.
- [29:02]
Dave
Yeah, I mean, if there's a guy I trust, it's Ben Johnson. We've seen him do it where we were wondering could Jameson Williams get work and Sam Laporta? And there's always kind of someone that doesn't get work and it rotates each game to see who it is. But I think what these pieces tell me and the offensive line and everything for the development of Caleb Williams is they want to get the ball out of his hands faster. They don't want him to be sitting there so long doing this over and over and over. You go and get a Colston Loveland, Luther Burden. It's not to stretch the field and open things up. It's to get the ball in their hands quickly. And that's the big thing about Luther Burden. They said they had a high first round grade on him. He's great after the catch. So it would not surprise me if that's what we end up seeing is get mismatches with Colston Loveland against Linebackers and line him up all over the offense. Then Luther Burden just getting the ball out in space.
- [29:46]
Alfredo
It's not like the Lions use Sam Laporta as a downfield threat. His rookie year they kind of just got him established. His rookie year as a dot was pretty low. It went up the second season but, but I think that that's where Loveland starts. I do think Loveland can challenge downfield because those matchups that you're talking about, Alfredo, they'll be even more appealing when he's running 10 plus yards down the way. And so I think eventually that'll be incorporated into what he does. Same thing for Burden. They'll take shots with those guys, but they're going to be short air targets. I agree 100%. Everything is being done so that Caleb gets that ball out quick. His completion rate will go up, his efficiency will go up and it makes him an appealing fantasy quarterback. That's why he's worth taking as one of the first 10 quarterbacks off the board.
- [30:30]
Adam
Jamie Roma Dunze went with the first pick of round seven just ahead of Jordan Addison and Debo Samuel. DJ Moore went with the third pick of round five. Which value do you like better? DJ Moore third pick of round five or Roma dunes a first pick of round seven?
- [30:48]
Jamie
Yeah. DJ More by a lot. Odunze scares me to Alfredo's point much more than more does because we were hoping that, you know, he would see a target boost and be able to sort of build off what we thought was going to be a high end prospect. And I hope he still is is but you know, this feels more like the, the field stretcher who's not going to get a lot of opportunities, will make some big plays and you know, hopefully do something that Jameson Williams did. Again if you're tying the offense together to what, you know, Chicago is getting in from, from Detroit offense going to Chicago. But you know, look, we, we were talking pre draft who's going to be the slot receiver for Chicago. You know, was it going to be maybe Romo Dunes a just to get a big slot option for Caleb Williams and what Ben Johnson wants to do. So there's, there's still a lot of moving parts here, you know, you know, Burden as a rookie coming in, will he, you know, pick up the offense right away and you know, be, be that type of go to guy? Certainly could. I hope it's, you know, DJ Moore just based on what his, you know, last couple of years have been, you know, like we were talking about earlier, finally breaking out in 2023 and you know, having still a solid 2024, maybe not as good as it was, but still productive. So I want to see how this all comes together. But to me, Odunze going that early is a little bit too soon. I like the other receivers that we're after.
- [31:59]
Adam
All right, Alfredo Riser or faller rankings? Faller number two.
- [32:03]
Dave
Yeah, I'm gonna go with a pair of guys each on different teams. But this, they fall in the same bucket for me. And it's these veteran receivers, Jacoby Myers and Michael Pittman and while I think skillset wise, they're very different. They both have had a young pass catcher come in who is, who are going to be set up to get easier targets from their quarterback. And Michael Pittman has had almost every opportunity to get a bunch of volume and then he gets kind of outworked by Josh Downs and then now you bring in Tyler Warren who they spent a high draft pick on. They're going to want to get him targets close to the line of scrimmage and funnel the ball to him to get him running after the catch. Then same thing. I love Jacoby Myers. He's like my favorite wide receiver for the draft every single year because he's so cheap and so reliable. But now my baby boy Jack Besh goes to the Raiders and I love Jack Besh pre draft and he gets in such an, I don't want to say wide open spot, but I mean there's not many rookies that are just walking directly into a wide receiver two spot on a team where he, he could, I hate to put this expectation on him, but we could see a lad McConkey esque season from him. If Geno Smith actually plays well because target volume is there now with, with Brock Bowers being there, that's a different story. But we don't know what this offense is necessarily going to look like. But the, the two veteran receivers, Jacoby Myers, Michael Pittman, it's not sexy names to say and you were probably not drafting them till way later in rounds, but they're almost off my boards at this point because I don't. They're going to have to go really, really late in drafts for them to be a value for me.
- [33:30]
Alfredo
So I think we already know kind of what the Raiders are going to do and what, what changes they have made based on what they did with their very first.
- [33:36]
Dave
Yeah, they're going to run the ball.
- [33:38]
Alfredo
For sure and that's going to hurt the target opportunities for everybody. And that makes me, you know, a Little bit nervous about Brock Bowers, a little bit more nervous about Myers, but probably the most nervous about Besh getting the opportunity to make a big impact in his rookie season because he's got to share what will probably be fewer targets that the Raiders had last year. Raider dead last. An explosive rush rate from their running backs last season. They've addressed that with Genty. You know, he's going to move that number way up, and I. I just can't help but feel like they're going to become a team that is like the Seahawks were right before Russell Wilson turned to mud there. And that was a team that would throw the ball 55% of the time, run the ball. The rest they were effective doing. So I think the Raiders are going to fall into that and that's going to hurt the target upside for those guys.
- [34:26]
Adam
Alfredo, are you McBride or Bowers? This tight end one.
- [34:31]
Dave
Oh, man. I'm gonna sound foolish when I say it, but probably McBride just because of the reasons that Dave listed there. I was, I said it the other day on my show that I'm actually nervous about Brock Bowers, and I was laughed at. It was like, how are you nervous about Brock Bowers? He's so good. And it's. It's about what this Raiders offense could be like. They very obviously have a commitment to running the football and getting the ball into some other people's hands as well. So, yeah, Trey McBride, we' seen him already succeed on a team that's filled with offensive playmakers around him. He's that. That's the guy that I just. I love him. After the catch, I think he's still going to keep getting those targets. So Trey McBride for me, Titan one.
- [35:10]
Adam
You know what? Me too. Oh, you. You also Jamie. Oh, nice.
- [35:14]
Alfredo
Yeah, me too. And PP people.
- [35:15]
Adam
Really? Oh, okay. Okay.
- [35:18]
Jamie
Yeah.
- [35:18]
Alfredo
How can I say what I just said and then have Brock Bowers number one?
- [35:20]
Adam
Because I thought you did. I mean, I. I've been trying to make this case for like three weeks when I felt like they were going to take Jack. 4th most pass attempts in football last year. And I didn't know they were going to take Besh. Maybe that's what ended up flipping it for you. But for me, it's also. Yeah, I mean, it's not just that. It's like I look at all these. A few tight ends who have had unbelievable rookie seasons, including Kyle Pitts. I know he didn't score the touchdown, but he set the rookie record at the time. Jeremy Shockey. His best season was his Rookie season, Sam Laporta, they all took a step back in year two. And I totally believe in Bowers, but McBride has actually done it for two straight years. Once Zach Ertz, what was. He got hurt two years ago. McBride was amazing. And then he just picked it up and they didn't add anyone. So I'm super comfortable with McBride as.
- [36:08]
Jamie
I think the, you know, we, we talked about this a few weeks ago. I think if you say right now the touchdowns are equal, which is hard to say for McBride because that's the thing that's been clearly escaping him. Yeah, he, he should be better.
- [36:22]
Adam
Yeah, yeah. Now, on the other hand, just make the same case I made for the Bears pass catchers. Now, while the Raiders did throw the ball the fourth most attempts in the NFL, they were like fourth lowest in points per game, fifth lowest in points per game. So you could just see them have a much better offense and more touchdowns and that could help Bowers. Not that we're super worried about Bowers. Just arguing about.
- [36:46]
Jamie
No, it's, it's nitpicking when you're talking about the two guys at the top because they're both, both elite level producers and you know, who just maybe has a slight edge. And I think we're all in agreement that maybe McBride right now has a slight edge. But I'm with, I'm with Alfredo. I like Besh a lot. I think the landing spot was fantastic. I think he's going to make a lot of plays there. Target volume will certainly be an issue for him, but, you know, it's not like anybody's asking or expecting to draft this guy, you know, Even the first 100 picks, you know, so when you're talking about late round options like he's, he's got such a huge upside. I just took him in in 209 of analyst dynasty league. Very happy about that. You know, so that's the range for, I think rookie drafts, you know, back end.
- [37:26]
Alfredo
That's a rookie mock. You got him at 209 rookie. Yeah, that's pretty good.
- [37:32]
Dave
I just got the same thing yesterday.
- [37:33]
Alfredo
Jamie.
- [37:34]
Dave
209 Jack. That's like his spot now.
- [37:36]
Jamie
Yep.
- [37:37]
Adam
Your best shouldn't be.
- [37:38]
Alfredo
Should be going a little higher than that.
- [37:40]
Adam
All right, one more rankings faller from Alfredo. Oh, wait, wait. Quick commercial break and then one more Alfredo Brown rankings follower. And then we'll finish with our rankings. Rankings. The Bates. We'll be right back.
- [37:50]
Dave
This episode is brought to you by Chevy Silverado.
- [37:53]
Adam
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- [37:54]
Dave
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- [37:56]
Alfredo
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- [38:00]
Dave
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- [38:03]
Alfredo
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Dave
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- [38:08]
Alfredo
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- [38:17]
Adam
Hey there. I'm David Harbour from Marvel Studios Thunderbolts. I don't mean to interrupt your favorite podcast. Well, actually, maybe I do just a little bit, but I have a good reason. My new film hits theaters Friday, May 2nd, and it's got everything. Action, suspense, humor, heart. And Bob. Who's Bob? Find out by getting tickets now.
- [38:37]
Alfredo
Okay, now back to the show or.
- [38:39]
Adam
Onto the next episode.
- [38:40]
Alfredo
That.
- [38:43]
Adam
All right. Welcome back, Alfredo, who's our last rankings faller.
- [38:47]
Dave
Yeah, I saved all the sexy names for the end. Now that you guys are 30 minutes deep into the show, it's too late. You can't leave.
- [38:53]
Adam
Yeah, we only. Our listeners average about five minutes and then they're just.
- [38:57]
Dave
Okay, good. So it's just. Just my mom watching. Awesome. So Rico Dowdle and Jerome Ford. Not that everyone's getting too excited about them anyways, but now they're in these just convoluted back fields where even, even if you did have a semblance of like, okay, well, Jerome can still be something. You get Quinn, Sean Judkins there, and then they go and draft Dylan Sampson over there in Cleveland. And then with Rico Dowdle, Panthers draft another running back. I'm trying to remember right off the top of my head. Oh, my gosh, guys. Trevor etn. Thank you. Who is almost nearly a passing down specialist at that point. He's actually a good pass blocker, good receiver. So it's just, you start to wonder, where do these guys fit into roles? And they're. These are names that were big last year, where someone just walking into their draft is gonna be like, I remember Rico Dowdle and Jerome Ford. Those guys were really solid RB2s for me all season. And now I don't even know that you can look at them as RB3 or you're probably looking them as like RB4 value, just sheer handcuffs and hoping that, you know, they get an opportunity down the line. But, yeah, they're. They're massive followers for me.
- [40:01]
Adam
All right, it is time for some rankings debates. Six rankings debates. Three receivers, Three running back debates. Gates, let's get to it. So these two guys went 24th and 25th in our Tuesday draft. Lad McConkey and Jackson, Smith and Jigba. So it was the same manager taking both of them. And he started with Jamar Chase. So Those are his three receivers. Chase, McConkey, Smith and Jigba. I think Bakonki went before Smith and Jigba, for what it's worth. But you know what? I'm gonna let Alfredo. I'm gonna let Alfredo go last, at least on this one, and I'm gonna make Jamie go first. Who do you like better, lad, McConkey or JSN10.
- [40:37]
Jamie
They're back to back in my rankings with JSN1 spot ahead. Just like the setup for both these guys, clearly. I think when you look at it, I'm a little bit more concerned about what Trey Harris could be for the Chargers, plus the run game. I think upgrade for the Chargers comparatively to. Even though Cooper Cup's resume is better than both these guys, especially better than what the other guys are in Los Angeles. I don't know how long he's gonna play play. You know, he's had a hard time staying healthy. He's 32 years old, right? 33 at this point. You know, he's. He's a good addition for what Seattle wants to try and get out of him, but I don't know again, how much he'll be able to be a productive guy. I think JSN is going to dominate targets for that team. Very excited about the upside, especially what we saw in the games that Metcalf missed last year. No more Tyler Lockett as well. I know they bring in MVs, but again, just a guy at this point point who's going to stretch the field at times. I don't think what he did in New Orleans last year is any indication of who he is because he had some more productive games. To me, JSN is just a slightly better spot. But again, you tell me I can only take McConkey and I can't get JSN. I'm thrilled with that. So they're 12 and 13 in my rankings right now, Dave.
- [41:44]
Alfredo
They're back to back for me. I've got McConkey one spot ahead of Jackson, Smith and Jigba. I am not really worried about Trey Harris going to the Chargers. I remember watching Trey Harris and I felt like he was a little limited in terms of, like, routes, run, physicality. He's had all sorts of injuries that have held him back a little bit. No question he's fast, but he's not a burner. And he's good at tracking the football. He's a good one cut route runner. And I think lad McConkey's just earned the role as being the best receiver in la and I don't think that's changing. Both these receivers have a run game to worry about, by the way. Both of them have, both of them are on teams where they've got two running backs that can supplement whatever their passing games do. And we could argue that the Chargers are going to be a little bit more run heavy or that they want to be a little bit more run heavy. But I think if Kenneth Walker is right and Zach Charbonnet looked like the better running back last year, they could both be on run heavy teams. So I'm going to lean toward who's got the better quarterback back. That's McConkey. I, I like that. McConkey last year averaged more PPR points per game than Jackson, Smith and Jigba and JSN averaged more targets per game. And if it comes to pass that JSN is, is truly playing solo where Cooper cup is a non factor, Elijah Arroyo is a non factor. All these fast receivers that they've added, they're non factors. It's going to be JSN in a landslide, at least in full PPR because he's going to see more targets. But short of that, I think lad McConkey's done enough and, and will get enough work to be effective for the Chargers.
- [43:20]
Adam
All right, Alfredo, break the tie lab. McConkey or JSN.
- [43:24]
Dave
I'm gonna sound a lot like my wife when someone asks her who she's rooting for. And I just hope everyone has a good time and no one gets hurt. Cause like I'm the same thing. I've got these guys back to back. I think the only thing is I have lad McConkey one spot higher because he's got a rapport with his quarterback. And JSN is going into now an offense with with new coordinator, new quarterback and that quarterback is Sam Darnold, who we've really only seen one good year from him and that was in a Kevin O'Connell offense with the best wide receiver in the league arguably. So I, it's not a huge disparity between them because I had the same questions that Jamie had about lad McConkey in college. He wasn't always healthy last year. Took a little bit for things to get going. I'm just like Dave said, I'm not worried about Trey Harris. It's just they had Trey Harris at home already with Quentin Johnston. So I'm not like I'm not worried about that. I see these guys as very, very equal. I think it's could end up being more likely that JSN falls into more targets if Cooper cup can't finish a season. But I also think it's more likely that lad McConkey gets hurt and doesn't finish the season himself. So I just. The edge for me was at quarterback.
- [44:32]
Adam
Yeah, it's fair. I think this is a really tough call, obviously, with the you guys having them back to back Dave and Jamie. So I'm just going to say this. I don't know. You know, if I drafted 10 times, I might take JSN five times and McConkey five times. It's that close. But one thing I definitely would not do is draft both of them. I think they're both a little bit risky in terms of target volume. I do think JSN is risky in terms of quarterback play. And I think the running backs who are on the board were just way too good to be taking both of those receivers when you've got Chase Brown, Joe Mixon, James Cook on the board. I think I. I would even take Tyreek Hill over these guys. Now. I could see certainly an argument against that. T. Higgins went after these guys. I think there are safer receivers and receivers with more upside than I would take one of them, sure. But I. I would not go with both of them. I think that's a little bit too risky for me. All right, let's go to Rasheed Rice versus Xavier Worthy. And we'll go. We'll snake it. You can go first this time. Alfredo Rashi. Right? Right. Rice versus Xavier Worthy. Rice did go ahead of Worthy. He went 36th overall. Xavier Worthy went, I think, 45th overall in this draft. Who do you like better?
- [45:41]
Dave
I'm going to go with Rasheed Rice, and it's just he was the lead target earner on that team prior to going down with the injury. And I think there's still a lot of concern about whether he'll be suspended or not. And honestly, I think those get overblown every single year when it comes to rankings. When a guy misses two weeks, three weeks, four weeks, it's about what he's going to do when he's in your lineup. And I think that once Rasheed Rice is in your lineup, let's say it's week five, nobody's going to care about where they drafted him or the suspension anymore, because he's going to be Getting you top 12 wide receiver production each week, especially with the Decline of Travis Kelsey. So Rasheed Rice for me, Jamie.
- [46:18]
Adam
Oh, Dave. Dave. My bad. I messed up the draft order. Go ahead, Dave.
- [46:22]
Alfredo
I've got Rice ahead of Worthy and it's tough to say because the way that Xavier Worthy finished last year, his last six games, including the playoffs, he was unreal. It was 21.6 PPR points per game, 8.7 targets per game. Do you really think he's going to average 8.7 targets per game with Rashid Rice back and with everybody healthy, at least start the year in Kansas City? That's the number that I get tripped up on when it comes to Xavier Worthy. Also, he went 45th overall in our draft draft. I'd love Worthy if I could get him a little bit later, put him around 50, 55. I'd. I'd rather take a chance on that value than Rasheed Rice in late round three, but I don't know if I'm going to end up getting them there. They're going to be popular picks because of what Rice did last year. And of course, it's assuming that Rasheed Rice is A, healthy, which Patrick Mahomes is making it sound like he is, and B, not suspended. And as long as those two things are happening, I don't see what's going to slow down Rashid Rice from coming back back and having the opportunity to get that type of target share that Xavier Worthy had at the end of the year to get around eight and a half targets per game. Especially if Worthy is forcing the safeties to play back every single play against Kansas City because teams don't want to get burned by Patrick Mahomes throwing it deep to Xavier Worthy.
- [47:42]
Adam
Jamie.
- [47:44]
Jamie
I like both of them. I would. I would take Rice first. I, I don't mind the value of where he went in this draft. I think round four is perfect for Xavier Worthy. So. So I just think you're looking at the thing that makes me concerned about Rice and why Worthy might be better is like this could be Tyree Kill just based on his speed.
- [48:01]
Adam
Yeah.
- [48:02]
Jamie
You know, and that's a lofty comparison, clearly, because what he was in Kansas City was a megastar in terms of as a fantasy receiver, obviously what he did for that offense. But the thing that I think is going to be fun about both these guys is you're now getting faster for the Chiefs. You're getting Marquis Brown more speed on the field. You're getting Xavier Worthy more speed on the field. Obviously, Rice's upgrade over what they had toward the end last season and what he was able to accomplish in his rookie campaign. And hopefully it makes Patrick Mahomes better because we know he hasn't been a great fantasy quarterback for the last two years. So I think that's going to be the fun overall takeaway for these guys. If they can stay healthy and play the majority of the season, suspension, injuries and, you know, notwithstanding, then we see just, you know, everything in Kansas City look better from an offensive standpoint. But I. I think you want to get a piece of this receiving core in some way, shape or form if you can. So Rice should go first.
- [48:50]
Adam
First.
- [48:50]
Jamie
I like the fact that he's participating in, you know, voluntary OTAs, you know, sounds like he's trending in the right direction from a health standpoint. And so if he's ready to go by training camp, I think he'll be around three pick. And I think Worthy will come, like I said, not too far after him in round four.
- [49:02]
Adam
Yeah, my issue is like, these guys are always looking good. They're always recovering ahead of schedule, right. And. And then they get the season starts and we're eight weeks in. It's like, well, he's not really back yet. He's not. Not the same player. So you're just never gonna know truly how injured they are. He's, you know, he has a five yard a dot, so. But. But he's great after the catch. I mean, like, I get. I'm saying he's not like the most explosive downfield player where I'd be super worried about the injury. With Rasheed Rice, he can still do his thing, but he is great after the catch. He's one of the most efficient wide receivers. I mean, he was for the first three weeks of the season. For what it's worth, he was number one among wide receivers in yards per out run. One. Number two is Justin Jefferson. So he's not just a guy who just like, catches a lot of short passes. He actually does a lot with them. But I. I do worry about the injury. And here's my favorite stat when you think about this. Rashee rice. Those first three games, he was the number two wide receiver in fantasy. He was on pace for 102 catches, 1500 yards, nine touchdowns, on only 128 targets. This was with Patrick Mahomes. Mahomes was on pace for 3,936 yards and 17 touchdowns. If Mahomes can re. Rediscover his form, both of those guys are going to crush their adp. And that's what I'm. You're saying it Jamie, like, get a piece of this offense. We just need Mahomes to. To bounce back and I think Worthy will be a big part of that. Opening up the downfield game. All right, one more wide receiver debate. Chris Godwin versus Mike Evans. Jamie, you can. Oh, no. Dave, you can start. We'll go. Dave. Alfredo. Jamie, go ahead.
- [50:39]
Alfredo
This is going to sound like a cop out, but I think it's too soon to rule in favor of one over the other. Don't worry, I'm still going to give you an answer. Yeah, you better answer that answer is Mike Evans because he's the healthier one of the two. Because his role doesn't figure to be compromised by a first round pick coming in and potentially kicking Chris Godwin off to the side. I don't know if. Jamie, you can tell me if you've heard anything about Chris Godwin and where he is in his progress coming back from his injury. That's an obvious concern. But if he's right and he's healthy and ready to go. Listen, I know that this is a different offensive coordinator, but I don't think he's reinventing the wheel. I think he's going to still do a lot of the things that Liam Cohen did last year in Tampa, and Cohen improved on a lot of the things that Dave Canales did the year before. So I would imagine that Godwin is still going to be a very valuable target and to get a lot of work. Adam, you've talked all about how good he was. Godwin was as far as PPR points per game when he was healthy. It is possible he can pick up where he left off and if he does that, then, yeah, he's going to be the better receiver over Mike Evans because we know that when Mike Evans, when he played with Godwin, he was around 13 PPR points per game. That's not what we're used to seeing from Evans. Evans needed Godwin to get hurt for him to really step into the spotlight and be a fantasy hero last year. The only reason why Evans is out of Godwin right now is because I just don't know if Godwin is going to be good to go and even if he is, how much he'll play in the slot with a Buka now in Tampa Bay.
- [52:12]
Adam
I don't remember who is next. I think Alfredo. Go ahead, Alfredo.
- [52:17]
Dave
Yeah, as much love as I have for Chris Godwin, I'm gonna go Mike Evans here and relatively easily because I do think that the Bucks are telling us what they're going to do. When you draft a receiver that spent over 80% of his time in the slot, it sounds like you're probably going to have that guy play in the slot. And that's what worries me most about Godwin, is that if they push him back outside, his fantasy production just drops so much. And going back to 2023, the Canalis year, 12.3 fantasy points per game. It was a huge drop off from the 19 that we were seeing last year when Godwin was lined up out wide. So that's the thing that concerns me the most. I mean, we could very well see the drop off Mike Evans. I'm crossing my fingers that doesn't happen. But if I'm going for the upside here, I think the upside still leans with Mike. Mike Evans making big plays, catching more touchdowns, whereas Godwin coming off injury likely moving back outside. It worries me a little bit.
- [53:08]
Jamie
I think you're going to see Evans get drafted first. I'll probably try to wait out Godwin as much as I can with the hope that he falls. I don't disagree with a book of maybe taking his role, but I wonder how much of that will be 2025 versus 2026. You're looking at that Evans could be done after this year and it would just make sense. You know, he's, he's, you know, 30. He'll be 33 by the end of the year, I believe. You know, turning 32 or he turned 32. Yeah, it's when these guys start to really start, you see the fall off. And not that he showed it last year clearly any stretch, but I still think people are going to draft Evans in the range that he was going pre draft, you know, so in the round three range, I think Godwin may fall to, you know, round six or seven, you know, and he, that's where he was getting drafted last year because he coming off the injury in the subpar play. And so does he get kicked out of the slot roll right away? Well, they still have another guy that could play on the outside right now, McMillan, so they don't need to force him outside. You know, I think Abuka is more break glass in case of emergency. Use him as a, you know, sort of not as a gadget player in his rookie campaign, but as a, you know, fourth receiver that will mix in and then we see next year. Okay, maybe then Godwin kicks outside to replace Evans. And if you think about it, the one game where, where Evans, where Godwin was fantastic in 2023 was when Evans got hurt and he was great as an outside receiver. So I don't think he's going to necessarily get crushed if Evans leaves. This is more dynasty related if he ends up being the number one outside guy. But for this year, I think the value for Godwin will be so much better that you want to just see how far you can weight this out. But it's. To me, I think they're all, they're, they're both, you know, draft losers, you know, similar to the Bears. Like, you know, you throw in what a Buka could be. What McMillan was at the end of last season, what Evans was when Godwin was healthy last year. God, we're now coming off of the ankle injury. Like there's just so many moving parts here that it feels like you want still pieces of this offense because it's so good. But I think to Alfredo's point, like, you rather have the quarterback because that's going to work in his favor. It's going to work in his favor. All these guys, guys. But I think they'll cannibalize each other a little bit to a point where it could get frustrating, especially if you spend at least too early of a draft pick on Mike Evans.
- [55:21]
Alfredo
I got a stat on Evans that'll make you squirm. But before I do that, just a quick pointer. Just because a receiver lines up outside doesn't mean he's always going to run 15 yards downfield and play against the sideline. Godwin can still run a bunch of in breaking routes, slants and digs and stuff like that that he's used to running from the slot lot. And he can still get open doing that because he's good, he's got good feet and he can get. That's how. That's his primary.
- [55:46]
Jamie
Well, it's more about who he's matching up with as opposed to where he's.
- [55:49]
Alfredo
Sure. But sometimes when you drag that perimeter corner across the field, you're going to be able to get a step on him because the perimeter corner isn't used to that. And that's if it's man coverage, if it's zone coverage, then crying out loud, Goblin's gonna have all kinds of space. But that's a point for another time.
- [56:01]
Adam
But we do have a very clear season of him playing more on the outside and being pretty, pretty, pretty bad. And then they move him back inside and all of a sudden he's the number three wide receiver per game at.
- [56:14]
Jamie
The end of the year on the perimeter with James, let's not forget.
- [56:17]
Alfredo
Right. That's a fair point. And so we'll see what Grizzard does and how he uses them there. The set that's going to make you score on Evans. Last year, 27 of his PPR points came from touchdowns. So. And that's kind of what he's known for, I guess, scoring a lot of touchdowns.
- [56:33]
Adam
But.
- [56:33]
Alfredo
But if he, if, if the number goes down. This is the same thing with Terry McLaurin. And McLaurin, we're used to seeing like five touchdowns a year from. We're not really used to seeing that from Mike Evans, but if that number get. From what he did last year, gets cut in half, you know where his fantasy point total is going? It's going straight down. It's something that does have to concern you with Evans.
- [56:53]
Adam
I thought you were going to say he was wide receiver. 23 per game in the first six weeks of the season when both guys were healthy.
- [56:59]
Alfredo
13.6 PPR points per game.
- [57:01]
Adam
All right, guys, let's. We're gonna have to do a speed version for the running backs here. So, Alfredo, Dave, Jamie, we go in that order. Christian McCaffrey versus Kyron Williams. Alfredo, who do you have?
- [57:12]
Dave
I'm gonna go Kyron here. I just. I simply don't want to lose my draft in the first two rounds by picking Christian McCaffrey. 28 years old, chronic injury. Now he's played one full season, just the last four years, and it's. It might sound boring, but I kind of just want to know what I have at my running back spot if I go with Kyron Williams.
- [57:29]
Alfredo
I'm a little nervous about both these guys. I'll take Kyron first, but I mentioned earlier in the show, the Raiders had the lowest explosive run rate last year. The Rams were second lowest. Kyron Williams had some fumble issues down the stretch. Look, I don't think he's about to get replaced by Blake Corm or Jarquez Hunter. I think he's still their main guy and he's in a contract year. These things tend to help Kyron Williams, and I love his spot on the team. That should be enough to put him ahead of McCaffrey. And I'm just going to say this every single time we talk about McCaffrey. I don't mind taking him late round one, early round two, but I. I've got to really target Isaac Garendo if I do that. Garendo's got to be my eighth round pick. If I get Christian McCaffrey with one of my first two picks.
- [58:10]
Jamie
Jamie, that's exactly what I did. That took McCaffrey, the first pick of round two, and took Girando, I think round ten, actually, so. Oh, wow, that's great for me. I'm going to take the upside here. If McCaffrey's. He's healthy, I don't think he obliterates Kyron Williams, but we know what he's capable of, you know, so it's a huge risk. But, you know, depending on where you're getting him, I think it's worth it.
- [58:34]
Adam
Kyron, in two seasons, has been the number two running back per game and the number nine running back per game. Biggest difference, just a lot more efficient. Five yards per carry in 2023, 4.1 yards per carry in 2022. But both seasons on pace for over 320 carries. Carries. All right, Jonathan Taylor versus Bucky Irving. Let's reverse the order. Jamie, Dave. Alfredo. Jamie. Jonathan Taylor versus Bucky Irving.
- [58:58]
Jamie
I struggle with this one just because Taylor's been so good and he was really good down the stretch last year, but I'm gonna go Bucky, you know, just looking at what he should be able to do in the passing game by comparison to Taylor, especially with the addition of DJ Giddens and what he can maybe do to take some of the potential receptions that the running backs may get away from Taylor touchdowns to favor Taylor, clearly. And again, he was the star that we know he was, you know, to close last year, but I just think Bucky's coming into his prime. And based on the way that he performed last year, this is one. I may flip flop a hundred times between now and August, but I like Bucky Irving situation a little bit better than Jonathan Terrence right now.
- [59:35]
Alfredo
In his last eight games, including the postseason, Bucky Irving averaged 18.1 PPR points per game. Now, I can cherry pick some numbers that'll make Jonathan Taylor look better than that, and Taylor was really not worse than that. Just over the course of the season, Jonathan Taylor was at 17.5. His numbers were a little bit better in five games with Flacco than they were with Anthony Richardson. I. I do worry a little bit about teams daring Indianapolis to throw the ball. They've got Anthony Richardson, they've got Daniel Jones. Who the hell knows which guy is going to start for them? It's going to be close. I'm going to take the upside of Bucky Irving figuring that he will see a little bit more work because last year he got all these numbers without being like a massive workload type of running back. I think Tampa puts a little bit More on his plate this year. I think he outperforms Jonathan Taylor in full ppr.
- [60:27]
Dave
Yeah, this was a close one for me and I just leaned towards which team I think is going to have the better offense and more scoring opportunities. And if Jonathan Taylor. So much of his successes come off of scoring touchdowns. What? Well, I don't really know how often the Colts are going to be in scoring position. And if I remember correctly, the offensive line got a little bit worse going into this season. So it's just lost guys. Yeah, it's just. It's not exciting over there. Whereas Bucky. I know the track record for small guys with late draft capital isn't great, but I'm willing to take my chance on that one just because the upside is there.
- [60:58]
Adam
All right, a sweep for Bucky Irving. Last one is Breece hall versus Alvin Camaro. Dave, you can start. Who do you like better? And then we'll go Alfredo and Jamie. Breeze hall versus Alvin Camara.
- [61:09]
Alfredo
They are back to back. And you're picking all these battles that are back to back. In my ranks. Bucky and Taylor were back to back. Some receivers were back to back. And here's another one. So maybe you just looked at my rank.
- [61:19]
Adam
No, actually I picked the wide receiver debates and Thomas picked the running back debates.
- [61:23]
Alfredo
So Thomas must have been looking at my rankings then to come up with it. But whatever it is, it's interesting. And as of now, I've got Breeze hall one spot ahead of Alvin Camara. It's. It's, it's it. These are two running backs I'm not excited about. But if Breece hall gets more opportunities, we saw last year when he was getting 15 plus touches a game, his PPR points per game were good. Now Alvin was even better because he was catching the ball. Can he do it again for another full season? Is he going to score a lot of touchdowns? These are things that worry me a little bit. If the jets go conservative on offense. Yeah, I know Justin Fields will steal some touchdowns. Hopefully he's the only guy in New York York that steals touchdowns from Breeze Hall. There's also the outside chance that Breeze hall gets traded, be it between now and training camp or after the season starts. And if he gets traded, he could potentially go to a team where he's the star of that backfield and he can run roughshod. Like if he goes to Chicago, it's over. You don't have to worry about Roshan Johnson and DeAndre Swift and the. The rookie they drafted that you worry about Breeze hall dominating There and in a contract year himself, I could see Breeze hall coming through with a pretty good season. It's close between the two in full ppr. It's not close to non ppr. Breeze Hall's the pick for me.
- [62:38]
Adam
Alfredo.
- [62:39]
Dave
Yeah, yeah. Eileen ever so slightly to Camara in ppr, but I. It's one of these things, man. Like, it's. It's probably going to be too bad offenses if I'm being honest, and that's the part where I struggle. So much of Breeze Hall's value has come from catching passes, and we haven't seen enough of a sample size where Justin Fields is consistently targeting the running back. He did it a little more last year, but that was him being a fish out of water in an offense that he wasn't used to and he was kind of forced to do that. That's not something he naturally has done. And with the other running backs sort of working in there in New York, it just gives me a little bit of worry with him. So I lean Camara ever so slightly.
- [63:15]
Jamie
Same. Yeah, to me, it's Camara, I think just again, his role in the passing game and, you know, I'm not the guy that's going to support older players very often, but his game, I think will age well, you know, just because he's not going to have to get a lot of his production by scoring touchdowns. We've seen that he's not going to have to, you know, carry the football to the same level that Breeze hall probably will. And the fact that Aaron Glenn came out and said we're going to use all three guys, like, I don't think that's necessarily the end all be all for Breeze hall coming off the field significantly. So Isaiah Davis is the one that, you know, is. Is probably the. The guy that's not going to get as many touches, but Braylon Allen looked good at times last year. You know, maybe Devin Neal is that guy for the Saints this year with a new coach coming in. But. But even with the crappy quarterback situation in New Orleans and losing offensive linemen and, you know, still not being explosives, Adam likes to point out time and time again with Camara, he's still going to catch more passes than Breeze Hall. What hall went through two years ago as a pass catcher, what he did at the start of last season as a pass catcher, I don't think is replicable with Justin Fields. So I think Camara gets an edge here and I would. It's almost like a round difference for me. I would take Camara in round three. I wouldn't take Breeze hall until middle of round four for.
- [64:21]
Adam
Yeah, and it's just funny to have this debate and Dave has him back to back of the rankings. I totally understand why. But just to think Alvin Camara was four fantasy points per game better than Breeze hall last year in full ppr. That's huge.
- [64:35]
Alfredo
There were games where Breeze hall just did not get the ball. I kind of undersold this when I talked about Bree. He had 10 games where he had 15 or more touches. He averaged over 19 PPR points per game. So it's really just about are the jets going to use him that much and when they do use him, is he going to be able to get some catches? These are concerns. This is why Breeze hall isn't a second round pick anymore.
- [64:56]
Jamie
And Justin Fields, he was the second.
- [64:58]
Alfredo
Overall pick last year, right? There you go.
- [65:01]
Adam
Justin Fields the last two seasons has been actually fairly high in running back target rate. He didn't qualify last year, but if he did, he would have been fourth in running back target the year before. He was like 13th. He doesn't throw a lot, but he might throw to his running backs, but not like Aaron Rodgers did. And not like Aaron Rodgers did before devonte Adams got there. That's when Breeze hall got so many PPR fantasy points. All right, that's it. Hey, Alfredo, I know you're a South Florida guy. Are you a Panthers fan?
- [65:28]
Dave
Go Ice Cats, baby.
- [65:29]
Jamie
Yeah.
- [65:31]
Adam
Come on. I can't get Dave and Jamie or Heath into it. I mean, I'm watching every second of every game.
- [65:35]
Jamie
I've been to more games than you have.
- [65:37]
Adam
Well, I live, you know, a thousand miles away.
- [65:39]
Alfredo
Jamie, when the Panthers came to New York to take on the Rangers or the Islanders, did you go?
- [65:44]
Adam
The Rangers tickets are extremely expensive.
- [65:47]
Jamie
No excuses.
- [65:48]
Adam
And the Islanders. I was thinking about going to it, but it was. It's far. It's kind of far. But when I was in Florida for one week, I went to a game.
- [65:57]
Dave
Fake fan.
- [65:58]
Adam
I am fake fan, but like, I'm a good fake fan and I'm pumped up. Let's go. All right, Alfredo, thanks so much for joining us, man.
- [66:07]
Dave
Yeah, thank you for having me, guys.
- [66:08]
Jamie
Thanks.
- [66:09]
Dave
Alfredo, what's your Twitter hand title at Alfredo A. Brown.
- [66:13]
Adam
There you go. At Alfredo A.
- [66:15]
Alfredo
Brown.
- [66:15]
Adam
Follow him on X and of course, get the rookie guide football guys. Rookie guy that is out and we will talk to you on Monday. Have a great weekend, everybody. Go Panthers. Paramount podcasts dominate your fantasy baseball league.
- [66:38]
Dave
With fantasy baseball Today, part of the CBS Sports Podcast Network Join Scott White.
- [66:43]
Adam
Chris Towers and me, Frank Stampfl every.
- [66:45]
Dave
Weekday as we recap every player from every game. We'll get you the latest news, waiver wire ads and drops, trades to make prospect promotions and everything else you need to take down your league.
- [66:57]
Adam
Make sure to download and follow on.
- [66:59]
Dave
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