Fantasy Football Today – "RB Risers, Bold Predictions, Drafting Old Guys"

Date: September 1, 2025
Host: Adam Aizer
Analysts: Dave Richard, Jamey Eisenberg, Heath Cummings

Main Theme & Purpose

This episode gears up listeners for the final stretch of fantasy football drafts, focusing on:

• How to handle aging versus breakout players
• The latest running back (RB) Average Draft Position (ADP) risers
• News updates impacting player value (notably RBs and rookies)
• Heath Cummings' bold predictions for the season
• Last-minute draft strategies and tips

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Drafting Old vs. Young Players

• Debate: Should fantasy managers prioritize youth or proven veterans, especially after the 2nd round?
  • Adam: Questioned recent ADP trends, noting that even top performers like Tyreek Hill, Mike Evans, and Davante Adams are falling to Rounds 3-4 despite minimal risk beyond injury.
  • Heath:

    "I'd rather be drafting young players than old players... Evans might be a top 10 wide receiver for the first month, but it could get crowded later."

    • Considers “old” stars still above rookies but loves some rookie WRs (e.g., prefers Lad McConkey and JSN to old WRs—but not to the aforementioned trio).
    • Stresses it's team-build dependent: take youth for ceiling, but some older players have better Week 1 projections thanks to current health.
  • Jamey:

    "It's a case-by-case thing... I'm more concerned about the older receivers than I am Derrick Henry."

    • Not worried about Christian McCaffrey’s age/health—“trying to win the league this year.”

Timestamp: 05:00–08:40

2. RB Risers: Browns' Situation & Other Late Climbers

• Quinshon Judkins News: On verge of (re)joining Browns— what to do with CLE backfield?
  • Dave:

    "If Judkins signs, then he should be the first Browns running back selected... As of today, I would take Sampson as the first Browns RB."

  • Heath:

    "Sampson, Judkins, Ford—in that order."

• Comparison Scenarios:
  • Ali Gordon vs. Browns RBs: preference shifts if Judkins is imminent.
  • Javonte Williams or Browns RBs? It depends on build—Javonte for safe early workload, Browns RBs for late-season upside.

Timestamp: 08:40–11:20

3. RB ADP Risers: Who’s Heating Up?

• Jacory Croskey-Merritt (Washington):

  • Adam highlights his meteoric ADP rise: “RB28, ahead of Caleb Johnson and just behind Tyrone Tracy Jr.”
  • Heath:

    "There's a lot of uncertainty... He better completely obliterate Chris Rodriguez in that split… or he's not going to be very good."

  • Dave:

    "If he comes out and dominates carries for the Commanders…it’s upside, but there’s risk—it’s a little too soon for both [him and Johnson]."

  • Adam:

    "You’re hoping Croskey-Merritt can be better than Brian Robinson Jr.—but don’t expect catches."

• Other Noteworthy Risers:

  • Nick Chubb: Up 18 spots post-camp updates; schedule is middling pre-bye.
  • Woody Marks (Houston): Dave prefers him as HOU upside RB over older options.
  • Ali Gordon, Devon Achane, Braylon Allen, Basil Tootin: All climbing; the crew prefers Allen over Gordon, and Tootin for long-term impact.

Timestamp: 12:04–18:24

4. Key News & Notes (Injury / Depth Chart Impact)

• Carolina Panthers WRs: Jalen Coker out 4–6 weeks. Xavier Legette, previously viewed behind Coker, gets more runway for early targets.
  • Heath:

    "We may, after a month, feel like we were too low on Chuba Hubbard again."

  • Good early schedule for CAR skill players.
• Cowboys’ Defensive Injuries: Trayvon Diggs may miss up to 4 weeks, impacting early matchups.
• Chiefs WRs: Jalen Royals out; possible DFS flyers, but no major redraft reactions.
• Miscellaneous: Chuba Hubbard’s efficiency (was RB8 per/game in full PPR from Weeks 3–16 last year post-benching) is highlighted as undervalued.

Timestamp: 24:46–28:08

5. Heath’s Bold Predictions (with Explanations & Reasoning)

• Hymn of the Week (Henderson):
  • Prediction: “Trevion Henderson leads all RBs in targets and catches, finishes top 10 in full PPR.”

    "He could absolutely be your MVP if you get him in Round 4, especially in full PPR." (28:38)

• Dak Prescott Rises:
  • 5,000 passing yards, top 5 fantasy QB. “Career year incoming—best pass-catching weapons ever.”
• DeAndre Swift:
  • "Will set a career high in scrimmage yards, TDs, finishes top 12 at RB."
• Jerry Jeudy:
  • "Top 12 WR… for as many games as Joe Flacco starts" (humorously bold; Flacco on a bad team, so production could switch fast).
• Cooper Kupp & Deebo Samuel:
  • "Outscore Garrett Wilson/Marvin Harrison Jr. per game."
    • On Kupp’s low Week 1 projections:

      “If you’re a believer, his prop is absurdly low: 3.5 catches, 31.5 yards.” (34:01)

• Other Show Bold Takes:
  • Jamie: “Jordan Mason, Zach Charbonnet, and Braylon Allen will all be the best RBs on their teams this year—without injuries.”
  • "10 rookie RBs finish top 30 in PPR points per game."

Timestamp: 28:38–36:13 (Heath), Jamie's at 41:56–42:50

6. Last-Minute Draft Strategies & Tips

• Adam’s Primary Tips:
  1. Tight End Approach:

     “After George Kittle, don’t take a TE until Round 8 (unless LaPorta, Kelsey, Hawkinson, or Njoku fall). Stock up on WRs/RBs in Rounds 5–7.” (48:43)

  2. Invest in Rookie RBs:

     “Draft at least two rookie RBs. This class is deep and cheap; guys like Gentry, Hampton, Henderson, Tootin, Blue are all attainable and could post RB2 numbers.”

• General Philosophy: Don’t panic if early rookie RB returns are slow—historically, breakout comes mid-season for most (besides rare first-rounders).
• Team Build: “Build for upside in later rounds; lean into uncertainty with rookies, stash high-upside RBs on your bench.”

Timestamp: 48:43–55:14

Notable Quotes

• Heath (on old vs. young debate):

  "I’d rather be drafting young players than old players... But I still have Evans, Adams, Tyreek ahead of all rookie WRs." (05:31)

• Dave (on the Browns’ backfield):

  "If Judkins signs, he should be the first Browns RB selected. Right now, I’d go Sampson." (09:20)

• Heath (Croskey-Merritt rise):

  "There’s a lot of uncertainty being expressed by the market there... you better completely obliterate Chris Rodriguez in that split or it’s not going to be very good." (12:51)

• Heath (on Trevion Henderson as “Hymn of the Week” MVP):

  "He could absolutely be your fantasy MVP... will lead all RBs in targets and catches and finish top 10 at the position in full PPR." (28:38)

• Jamie (on bold RB predictions):

  "Jordan Mason, Zach Charbonnet, and Braylon Allen will all be the best RBs on their respective teams—without an injury." (41:57)

• Adam (on drafting rookie RBs):

  “I really think you need to draft rookie running backs... I think 10 of them could finish top 30.” (51:18)

Timestamps for Important Segments

• 05:00 — Old vs. Young Player Strategy in Drafts
• 08:40 — Browns RB Room Analysis (Judkins/Sampson/Ford)
• 12:04 — RB ADP Risers: Croskey-Merritt, Nick Chubb, Woody Marks, etc.
• 24:46 — Carolina WR Changes & Early-Season RB Sleepers
• 28:38 — Heath’s Bold Predictions Begin (Hymn of the Week: Henderson)
• 41:56 — Jamie’s Bold Predictions
• 48:43 — Last-Minute Draft Tips (Tight End Plan & Rookie RB Focus)

Memorable Moments

• Heath predicts both Trevion Henderson’s breakout and Dak Prescott’s career season, providing strong, actionable analysis—backed by clear reasoning and data.
• Detailed, nitty-gritty debate on the Washington backfield, highlighting how uncertain committee roles can upend preseason assumptions.
• Amusing banter about league management and home-league quirks, reminding listeners to keep things fun but fair!

Tone & Wrap-up

The conversation is lively, warm, and slightly self-deprecating, full of in-jokes and quick pivots between analysis and personality. The crew is most useful when dissecting positional battles and prescriptive about exploiting value in drafts — especially late-round rookie RBs and how to stay patient with slow starts out of the gate.

Summary Takeaway:

• Invest in rookie RBs and high-upside players in the middle/late rounds.
• Don’t shy away from proven "old" stars, especially if you're aiming for a fast fantasy start, but be conscious of risk and team build nuance.
• Tight end advice: wait unless a top guy slides (post-Kittle approach).
• Monitor news right up to the season for backfield and WR depth chart shifts—especially for RB committees in flux!
• Boldly chase league-winning payoff, but keep your head: early season panic is a killer.

Perfect final draft-prep listen for managers seeking both sharp advice and good company!