Fantasy Football Today Podcast Summary
Episode: Regression Candidates! Terry McLaurin, Travis Kelce, Saquon Barkley and More
Release Date: May 29, 2025
Hosts: Adam Aizer, Dave Richard, Jamey Eisenberg, Heath Cummings, and Dan
Introduction to Regression Concepts
The episode kicks off with a discussion on the concept of regression in fantasy football, clarifying that regression refers to players returning to their average performance levels rather than a decline in overall ability.
- Dave Richard (01:48): "It doesn't mean someone's going to be worse. It means they're either going to return to a more normal rate of something or return to a career norm."
- Dan (02:19): "Doesn't it just mean that somebody did something abnormal and now the thought is that they will do something that's not abnormal?"
This foundational understanding sets the stage for identifying players who might experience performance fluctuations due to various factors like touchdown luck or changes in team dynamics.
Quarterbacks in Regression Spotlight
Jared Goff (09:54 - 17:00)
- Performance Concerns: Goff exhibited a higher-than-career-average touchdown rate, primarily influenced by a weak Lions defense allowing high points per game.
- Dave (10:00): Highlights Goff’s elevated touchdown rate due to the absence of key defensive players.
- Fantasy Implications: Goff is seen as a potential value pick if his average performance normalizes, especially with a stable offensive line and coaching staff.
- Jamie (15:38): "I could see Jared Goff being an extremely good value while his ADP plummets because he's not sexy."
Baker Mayfield (18:53 - 21:19)
- Performance Analysis: Mayfield set several career highs last season but is considered a high regression candidate due to possible overachievement and age-related performance dips.
- Dave (19:33): "I would not be surprised if not all but one or two of those things get worse this coming year."
- Fantasy Strategy: Currently ranked QB7, Mayfield's high draft position is debated, with some analysts recommending caution.
- Dan (20:25): "He's going 14 picks after Mahomes. He's going 78th overall and QB8 is Bo Nix."
Running Backs Under Scrutiny
James Cook (21:19 - 28:05)
- Performance Review: Cook led in rushing touchdowns but with a lower overall yardage and potential workload concerns.
- Dave (22:51): "If you were going to put a guy's face on a regression article, James Cook would be the guy's face."
- Contract and Team Dynamics: Issues such as impending contract holdouts and sharing of carries with teammates raise concerns.
- Jamie (23:06): "If he does show up for camp and he is a good soldier, does get a contract extension, that, that'll make things a little bit more comforting."
- Fantasy Ranking: Positioned around RB15 to RB18, depending on touchdown expectations and workload stability.
Saquon Barkley and Derrick Henry (52:26 - 55:04)
- Historical Regression Patterns: Both players have shown significant yardage drops following high-touch seasons, raising red flags for fantasy owners.
- Jamie (53:36): "Every single one of them have declined by over 500 yards the previous, the next season."
- Fantasy Recommendations: Generally advised to avoid as top RB picks due to high risk of regression.
Wide Receivers at Risk
Terry McLaurin vs. T. Higgins (28:05 - 32:53)
- Performance Metrics: McLaurin achieved a spike in touchdowns last season without a significant increase in targets, indicating potential regression.
- Dave (30:06): "McLaurin did not do anything different or special last year besides score a touchdown on 12% of his targets."
- Fantasy Impact: McLaurin is a top 15 WR but with concerns about maintaining high touchdown rates. Recommended draft range is late Round 3 to Round 4.
- Heath (34:39): "It's not just Josh Allen and Sam LaPorta, Samson, but just in general, Terry McLaurin would be a regression candidate."
- Jamie’s Insight: Introduction of new teammates like Debo Samuel could dilute McLaurin’s target share and red zone opportunities, potentially reducing his touchdown output.
- Jamie (32:53): "You have to expect fewer touchdowns... he's still a top 20 receiver with the hope that he can get close to 10 touchdowns."
Additional Receiver Insights:
- Emphasis on adjusting expectations based on quarterback performance trends and team offensive strategies.
Tight Ends Facing Regression
Travis Kelce, Trey McBride, and Mark Andrews (37:20 - 48:12)
-
Trey McBride (38:53): Despite stable target volumes, McBride's touchdown efficiency remains a concern, potentially impacting his fantasy value.
-
Travis Kelce (38:53 - 45:26)
- Performance Decline: Kelce’s explosive play rate has halved, and target distribution within a strong Chiefs offense (with emergent tight ends) might limit his red zone opportunities.
- Fantasy Strategy: Mixed opinions on Kelce’s reliability; some hosts consider retaining him as a high-value TE despite potential target drops.
- Dan (43:33): "He's still average 12.2 PPR points per game, which for a tight end is pretty damn good."
-
Mark Andrews (48:12 - 51:16)
- Performance Review: After leading the TE position in touchdowns last season, Andrews showed signs of regression due to lower target volumes and potential role changes.
- Dave (47:01): "I'd much rather draft Kelsey."
- Fantasy Ranking: Currently ranked around TE16, with skepticism about maintaining previous high touchdown rates.
- Performance Review: After leading the TE position in touchdowns last season, Andrews showed signs of regression due to lower target volumes and potential role changes.
Concluding Insights and Recommendations
The hosts collectively advise fantasy players to:
- Exercise Caution with High-Performing Players: Recognize that players who have exceeded their career norms (e.g., Jared Goff, Baker Mayfield) may face regression.
- Focus on Stability: Prefer players with consistent performance metrics and limited dependency on high-touch scenarios (e.g., steer clear of Saquon Barkley).
- Adjust Draft Strategies: Position players like James Cook and Terry McLaurin within the middle rounds, anticipating possible halves in their touchdown outputs.
- Monitor Team Dynamics: Keep an eye on team changes, coaching strategies, and player contracts that might influence player performance and fantasy value.
Notable Quotes
- Dave Richard (01:48): "It's a regression to the mean, not a regression in terms of they're going to be worse."
- Heath Cummings (12:10): "I think some from what mostly pretty much all of the lines, including Gibbs and St. Brown who are first-round picks."
- Jamie Eisenberg (21:54): "It's tough to say, go get him, you know, when you have a lot of things that are potentially happening now."
Final Thoughts
The episode provides a comprehensive analysis of various players who might regress to their career averages, offering valuable insights for fantasy football enthusiasts looking to optimize their drafts and manage their teams effectively. By understanding the underlying factors contributing to a player's performance fluctuations, fantasy managers can make more informed decisions to dominate their leagues.
Note: All timestamps correspond to the original transcript provided.