Regression Candidates! Terry McLaurin, Travis Kelce, Saquon Barkley and More (05/29 Fantasy Football Podcast)

Summary

Fantasy Football Today Podcast Summary

Episode: Regression Candidates! Terry McLaurin, Travis Kelce, Saquon Barkley and More
Release Date: May 29, 2025
Hosts: Adam Aizer, Dave Richard, Jamey Eisenberg, Heath Cummings, and Dan

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Introduction to Regression Concepts

The episode kicks off with a discussion on the concept of regression in fantasy football, clarifying that regression refers to players returning to their average performance levels rather than a decline in overall ability.

• Dave Richard (01:48): "It doesn't mean someone's going to be worse. It means they're either going to return to a more normal rate of something or return to a career norm."
• Dan (02:19): "Doesn't it just mean that somebody did something abnormal and now the thought is that they will do something that's not abnormal?"

This foundational understanding sets the stage for identifying players who might experience performance fluctuations due to various factors like touchdown luck or changes in team dynamics.

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Quarterbacks in Regression Spotlight

Jared Goff (09:54 - 17:00)

• Performance Concerns: Goff exhibited a higher-than-career-average touchdown rate, primarily influenced by a weak Lions defense allowing high points per game.
  • Dave (10:00): Highlights Goff’s elevated touchdown rate due to the absence of key defensive players.
• Fantasy Implications: Goff is seen as a potential value pick if his average performance normalizes, especially with a stable offensive line and coaching staff.
  • Jamie (15:38): "I could see Jared Goff being an extremely good value while his ADP plummets because he's not sexy."

Baker Mayfield (18:53 - 21:19)

• Performance Analysis: Mayfield set several career highs last season but is considered a high regression candidate due to possible overachievement and age-related performance dips.
  • Dave (19:33): "I would not be surprised if not all but one or two of those things get worse this coming year."
• Fantasy Strategy: Currently ranked QB7, Mayfield's high draft position is debated, with some analysts recommending caution.
  • Dan (20:25): "He's going 14 picks after Mahomes. He's going 78th overall and QB8 is Bo Nix."

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Running Backs Under Scrutiny

James Cook (21:19 - 28:05)

• Performance Review: Cook led in rushing touchdowns but with a lower overall yardage and potential workload concerns.
  • Dave (22:51): "If you were going to put a guy's face on a regression article, James Cook would be the guy's face."
• Contract and Team Dynamics: Issues such as impending contract holdouts and sharing of carries with teammates raise concerns.
  • Jamie (23:06): "If he does show up for camp and he is a good soldier, does get a contract extension, that, that'll make things a little bit more comforting."
• Fantasy Ranking: Positioned around RB15 to RB18, depending on touchdown expectations and workload stability.

Saquon Barkley and Derrick Henry (52:26 - 55:04)

• Historical Regression Patterns: Both players have shown significant yardage drops following high-touch seasons, raising red flags for fantasy owners.
  • Jamie (53:36): "Every single one of them have declined by over 500 yards the previous, the next season."
• Fantasy Recommendations: Generally advised to avoid as top RB picks due to high risk of regression.

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Wide Receivers at Risk

Terry McLaurin vs. T. Higgins (28:05 - 32:53)

• Performance Metrics: McLaurin achieved a spike in touchdowns last season without a significant increase in targets, indicating potential regression.
  • Dave (30:06): "McLaurin did not do anything different or special last year besides score a touchdown on 12% of his targets."
• Fantasy Impact: McLaurin is a top 15 WR but with concerns about maintaining high touchdown rates. Recommended draft range is late Round 3 to Round 4.
  • Heath (34:39): "It's not just Josh Allen and Sam LaPorta, Samson, but just in general, Terry McLaurin would be a regression candidate."
• Jamie’s Insight: Introduction of new teammates like Debo Samuel could dilute McLaurin’s target share and red zone opportunities, potentially reducing his touchdown output.
  • Jamie (32:53): "You have to expect fewer touchdowns... he's still a top 20 receiver with the hope that he can get close to 10 touchdowns."

Additional Receiver Insights:

• Emphasis on adjusting expectations based on quarterback performance trends and team offensive strategies.

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Tight Ends Facing Regression

Travis Kelce, Trey McBride, and Mark Andrews (37:20 - 48:12)

• Trey McBride (38:53): Despite stable target volumes, McBride's touchdown efficiency remains a concern, potentially impacting his fantasy value.

• Travis Kelce (38:53 - 45:26)

  • Performance Decline: Kelce’s explosive play rate has halved, and target distribution within a strong Chiefs offense (with emergent tight ends) might limit his red zone opportunities.
  • Fantasy Strategy: Mixed opinions on Kelce’s reliability; some hosts consider retaining him as a high-value TE despite potential target drops.
    • Dan (43:33): "He's still average 12.2 PPR points per game, which for a tight end is pretty damn good."

• Mark Andrews (48:12 - 51:16)

  • Performance Review: After leading the TE position in touchdowns last season, Andrews showed signs of regression due to lower target volumes and potential role changes.
    • Dave (47:01): "I'd much rather draft Kelsey."
  • Fantasy Ranking: Currently ranked around TE16, with skepticism about maintaining previous high touchdown rates.

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Concluding Insights and Recommendations

The hosts collectively advise fantasy players to:

1. Exercise Caution with High-Performing Players: Recognize that players who have exceeded their career norms (e.g., Jared Goff, Baker Mayfield) may face regression.
2. Focus on Stability: Prefer players with consistent performance metrics and limited dependency on high-touch scenarios (e.g., steer clear of Saquon Barkley).
3. Adjust Draft Strategies: Position players like James Cook and Terry McLaurin within the middle rounds, anticipating possible halves in their touchdown outputs.
4. Monitor Team Dynamics: Keep an eye on team changes, coaching strategies, and player contracts that might influence player performance and fantasy value.

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Notable Quotes

• Dave Richard (01:48): "It's a regression to the mean, not a regression in terms of they're going to be worse."
• Heath Cummings (12:10): "I think some from what mostly pretty much all of the lines, including Gibbs and St. Brown who are first-round picks."
• Jamie Eisenberg (21:54): "It's tough to say, go get him, you know, when you have a lot of things that are potentially happening now."

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Final Thoughts

The episode provides a comprehensive analysis of various players who might regress to their career averages, offering valuable insights for fantasy football enthusiasts looking to optimize their drafts and manage their teams effectively. By understanding the underlying factors contributing to a player's performance fluctuations, fantasy managers can make more informed decisions to dominate their leagues.

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Note: All timestamps correspond to the original transcript provided.

Transcript

[Adam]

This episode is brought to you by State Farm. Knowing you could be saving money for the things you really want is a great feeling. Talk to a State Farm agent today to learn how you can choose to bundle and save with the personal price plan. Like a good neighbor, State Farm is there. Prices are based on rating plans that vary by state. Coverage options are selected by the customer. Availability, amount of discounts and savings and eligibility vary by state. This episode is brought to you by Amazon Prime. From streaming to shopping, prime helps you get more out of your passions. So whether you're a fan of true crime or prefer a nail biting novel from time to time, with services like Prime Video, Amazon Music and fast free delivery, prime makes it easy to get more out of whatever you're into or getting into. Visit Amazon.comprime to learn more.

[Dave]

This is Fantasy Football Today from CBS Sports.

[Jamie]

What a play.

[Heath]

Can you believe this? No, I can't.

[Dave]

It's time to dominate your fantasy league.

[Heath]

This is gonna go the distance.

[Dave]

Now here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie and Heath.

[Heath]

Let's talk about regression candidates today on Fantasy Football Today, players who had some good or bad touchdown luck last players who maybe had a yards per carry that they won't be able. Obviously we're going to squeeze YPC into this show that they won't be able to repeat. And we've got the whole gang here, Heath, Jamie, Dave, all on today to talk about a bunch of regression candidates. What it means for you on your draft day. All right, welcome everybody. How are we doing? Heath? Can we get a definition of regression?

[Dave]

No, we don't want to start with this. We did the semantics thing at the end of yesterday's show. Basically it's really easy that this does not mean someone's going to be worse. It means they're either going to return to a more normal rate of something or return to a career norm of something. It's a. It's a regression to the mean, not a regression in terms of they're going to be worse and no, nobody's going to say positive regression, nobody's going to say progression. It's just regression.

[Dan]

Doesn't it just mean that somebody did something abnormal and now the thought is that they will do something that's not abnormal?

[Dave]

Like return to the mean. Yes.

[Jamie]

Yeah, I think higher is better than earlier.

[Heath]

Certainly you haven't been mean. You guys haven't been mean to me in a while. Maybe you will return to the mean soon. Just, you know, I was a little.

[Jamie]

Mean to you via email yesterday.

[Heath]

You.

[Dave]

Yeah.

[Heath]

And Actually, yeah. No, on the air you haven't been mean to me, but you were mean to me via email and off the air this morning already. So that wasn't me.

[Jamie]

The I asked you gonna watch the game.

[Heath]

I don't want to talk about it. Like, I don't want to talk about it. I do.

[Jamie]

Send us an email in regards to FFT Express. And Adam's response was just Panthers because the Panthers are just one to clinch the. To return to the Stanley cup finals.

[Heath]

Yeah.

[Jamie]

And I just responded back PA space ers because all he said was Panthers.

[Heath]

Yeah. Which is Pacers or Panthers. Yeah, it's very funny.

[Dave]

Do you think that Terry's Halberton is going to return to the mean tonight?

[Heath]

He's a jerk. He's a sports jerk. Like, he's very cocky. And if the Knicks somehow come back and win the next three games, they need to run to the Pacers bench and do the choke sign right in front of his face and it would be poetic.

[Dan]

What is a sports jerk?

[Jamie]

Why would he be on the bench?

[Heath]

Oh, because It'll be a 30 point blowout in game seven. He'll be on the bench.

[Dave]

Do you remember when Adam was mad at the U.S. women's National Soccer team for doing the tea sipping celebration? Because it was. Yeah. Not. Not good sportsmanship.

[Heath]

I think that good sportsmanship is everything. Okay. I will be teaching my kid. My son knocked some kid down yesterday in soccer and did not. Did. He is a sociopath on the field. He did not care at all. I was, I was like, dude, you got to ask if he.

[Jamie]

He gets to play in the field. He's not the backup goalie.

[Heath]

He gets to play this soccer. So mean. They take all the good kids and they put them on one field and then they take everyone else, including my son, and they. They put them on the other field. So he's just like father, like son. All right. Anyway, news and notes. Terry McLaurin missed the first day of OTAs. Is voluntary OTAs, so not a huge deal there. We'll keep an eye on McLaurin. Jonathan Taylor was not at OTAs. Oh, three minutes in. Three and a half minutes in. It's time to talk about Tyreek Hill for the third straight day. Jamie. He lost weight. He wants to get to £2,000. He 2,000 yards.

[Dave]

I think he had equal chance of doing both.

[Heath]

He's regressing to that. Wait, he wants to get to 2,000 yards. He's apologetic for basically quitting on the team in week 18. He's back he's locked in. He wants to make amends. He's a better person. He's motivated. I know you love that kind of stuff. Are you feeling it with Tyreek Hill? He also.

[Jamie]

There was also a viral video, I think, that came out yesterday of somebody pranked him about getting traded. And he was like, yes.

[Dave]

And he was talking trash about Buffalo Bills fans and. Yeah, like, if you. You can just wait for Tyree Kill to regress to the mean and call.

[Jamie]

Travis Hunter trash when somebody brought him.

[Heath]

Up, like, well, regress. I mean, he would fit the regression candidate. Right?

[Dave]

It is funny like that.

[Heath]

The. The.

[Dave]

The. The Tyree Kill affection and the. The Tyrese Halliburton taste, like one of them's a sports jerk.

[Heath]

I mean, listen, listen. I would take Tyrese Halliburton in every fantasy draft. No, I think Tyrese Halliburton's probably a very nice guy. I don't know. You know, but on the court, he's. He's mean. Stefan Diggs was seen flashing a pink substance on a boat, possibly bubblegum, possibly something a little more nefarious. Mike Vrabel was not happy about it. We have a good comment here in the chat. When Adam hits into a triple play in softball, he claps in appreciation of the other team's achievement. I will tell you that. Last week, true story, or two weeks ago, we didn't have a game. No, no. Last week we did. We didn't have a game on Memorial Day. Some guy on the other team made a diving catch late in the game that they were winning. And it was ended the inning. And I was coaching third, and he made the catch in left field, and he was coming off the field, and I said a great catch to him, and he said, thank you. I even think I gave him a high five. We cool with that?

[Dave]

The high five might be a little much.

[Dan]

Like, why not just jog with him right back in his team?

[Heath]

He initiated it.

[Dave]

Would you mind going out and playing right field for me this inning?

[Heath]

Because I'd never make that. Yeah, no, it's true. I tried a similar catch later in the game, and I missed it. Josh Downs has a soft tissue injury. Kyle Pitt has a foot injury. Malik Neighbors has a toe injury, the same toe injury he dealt with in college. None of these things are huge issues right now for us. Russell Wilson seems entrenched right now as the Giants number one quarterback. Meanwhile, in New Orleans, Spencer Rattler and Tyler Schuck have been competing. Jake Hayner has been out with an oblique injury or is currently out with an oblique injury. Cam Ward and Will Levis are splitting reps. Anthony Richardson, Daniel Jones are splitting reps. That's going to continue. Every Cleveland quarterback is getting reps. Kenny Pickett getting first team reps. Everything on Twitter says Shador Sanders is amazing. I guess he's having a pretty good camp.

[Dave]

When you say Kenny Pickett's getting first team reps. Joe Flacco got the first first team reps, though, right?

[Heath]

Oh, I thought it was Picket. Am I. Was it flat?

[Dave]

I thought. I thought it was Flacco. Maybe it was Picket.

[Heath]

No.

[Dave]

Maybe I saw that wrong.

[Heath]

I could be right about that. I. I don't. It doesn't quite matter at this moment. Jalen Ramsey, Dolphins cornerback. He posted something online that said a new chapter awaits as he awaits a trade. And apparently Christian Watson is ahead of schedule in his recovery from a torn acl, so that would be good. That was pretty late in the season when that happened.

[Jamie]

You got Joe Mixon.

[Heath]

I don't. I'm probably missing some notes. So what. What's. What's going on with Joe Mixon?

[Jamie]

He was in a walking boot, but apparently also not a big deal, but not ideal, clearly.

[Heath]

Okay. Anything else? Anything else you guys have seen that you want to mention?

[Dave]

Would you rather have your Dynasty veteran in a walking boot or on a party boat?

[Heath]

On a party boat.

[Dave]

I think I'd rather have them in a walking boot.

[Dan]

Is it a party boat with crystal light in a baggie?

[Jamie]

Crystal Light.

[Heath]

I think it was Fun Dip. They just have. They have clear bags now.

[Dan]

I haven't had fun dip in forever.

[Heath]

If you could have pop rocks or fun dip. Which?

[Dan]

Fun dip. It's a mess, but fun Dip the.

[Heath]

Stick is kind of gross, though.

[Dave]

You know, I think I'd go with pop Rocks.

[Jamie]

Me too.

[Dave]

The experience.

[Heath]

Okay. All right, let's talk about some regression candidates. What a show so far. So Heath gave me a list of regression candidates in the touchdown area. Shouldn't have said it like that.

[Dan]

How much crystal light lemonade powder, pink lemonade powder have you had today? Adam?

[Heath]

What the hell is going on with me today? All right, so.

[Jamie]

Oh, that's down there.

[Heath]

I told that story a few days ago. It's a good one. All right, so the regression candidates with touchdowns. So Baker may feel so. Actually, why don't you, like, give me the headliner? For you, who's the biggest regression candidate?

[Dave]

I think the headliner is the one that I added at the last minute, and it was the Lions.

[Heath]

Oh, okay.

[Dave]

Just because it's A couple of things and part of it is the absence of Ben Johnson. But Jared Goff had a 6.9% passing touchdown rate last year. The best rate of his career before that was 5.9%. His career mark is 4.8%. So Golf a clear outlier in terms of passing touchdowns. We also saw Jameer Gibbs take a huge step forward in rushing touchdowns. The Lions scored more than Everybody basically. Sam LaPorta very high touchdown rate. The only reason he was a top 12 tight end. And so I think there's. There's more risk than what I see reflected in drafts with the Lions. Partially because of Ben Johnson leaving, partially because even if Ben Johnson was there, we should probably expect them to score fewer touchdowns next year.

[Heath]

I always point out with Jameson Williams how many long touchdowns he had. I don't know if that's the kind of thing that you look at, but for sure, yes. Yeah. Six touchdowns of 35 or more yards and only Jamar Chase had more. Chase had seven. So I know Williams is capable of doing that. But how many targets did Jamar Chase have? He had so many and. And Williams had like a hundred or. He was 91. Yeah, he was at pace for 103.

[Dave]

And Jameson probably isn't like he had seven on 91 targets, which is an unsustainable rate. I don't generally predict or project any wide receiver to have higher than a 7% touchdown rate. A few of them will, but very few people besides Mike Evans do that year after year. Williams probably isn't even the biggest touchdown regression candidate in his own wide receiver room. We saw him on Ross st. Brown score five and six touchdowns his first two years. It ballooned when Ben Johnson showed up to 10. I guess Ben Johnson was there for half of. Was in charge for half of the 22 NHC. Right. But anyways he had 10 on 164 targets in 2020. Last year he had 23 fewer targets in one more game and scored two more touchdowns. So I think St. Brown also a pretty big regression candidate.

[Jamie]

The thing that's interesting about the Lions and the correlation I hope will happen is what happened in Tampa Bay. So they lose. Obviously a hot commodity as an offense coordinator. Not the same level as as Ben Johnson. But Dave Canales leaves and Liam Cohen comes in and I would say things got better.

[Dave]

Right? For sure.

[Jamie]

And the thing that I'm hoping for for the Lions and I don't disagree with anything you're saying he. But the thing that I'm hoping for with the Lions is that all These guys are in their prime. The offensive line is among the best in football. They still play in a very favorable environment. And I think despite the fact that the defense is going to get better just from Hutchinson being back alone, but I think just the defense being better because really when things took off was when Hutchinson and everybody fell apart. I mean, they just lost so many guys, but they're probably going to be in a lot of offensive type games, you know, where they're not going to just sit back and you know, be conservative. I just don't see that happening for them. So I hope that while there will be some regression in certain areas, that these guys are still in such good spots that they'll continue to be close to the same level of production. If not, maybe exactly the same level production won't happen. But you know, in certain cases you could see it because again, all these guys are still in such great situations. You know, if they were losing personnel, it'd be a little bit more concerning, you know, like clearly offensive lineman, you know, change teams or you know, not being back for the most part, it's, it's the same crew.

[Heath]

Is there anyone in particular that you think is being overdrafted?

[Dave]

Some from what most of pretty much all of the lines.

[Heath]

Including Gibbs and St. Brown who are first round picks.

[Jamie]

Yeah, I don't see it that way.

[Dave]

I, I would draft Gibbs in the first round, but I don't have him as high at running back as other people do. And I have Saint Brown early in round two. So yeah, all of them.

[Heath]

I would also point out that Jared Goff, his last four games of the year, well of the fantasy season, he scored 28, 51, 31 and 32 points and six point per passing, touchdown leaks, he threw 14 touchdowns. He had a quiet week 18. But if you recall, in the month of December, the Lions had one of one of the worst defenses in NFL history for any month. And that's not an exaggeration in terms of like yards per play allowed. They allowed 31, 48, 17 and 34 points. So that I don't know if you got how much you guys look at that, but you know that I think contributed to all of the passing and, and all of the shootouts.

[Dave]

I think a really important comment just to help people understand regression to Darth work says top regression candidate. My hairline and see my hairline has already started to regress. So if it continues to regress, that would not be regression. It's. It's moving away from what it used to be. Yeah, it's just continuing to go down the same path. If regression for my hairline would be coming back, which is very unlikely.

[Heath]

Well, they have, you know, products for that. He's, you know, you could.

[Dave]

I'm not gonna. That's not, that's not the kind of thing I would do.

[Heath]

All right, so Heath, Heath is a little bit lower on the Lions, but still high on, on the Lions. Oh, yeah, yeah. Jamie is fine with St. Brown and Gibbs where they're going and pretty early in the first round. Dave, how do you feel in general about the Lions?

[Dan]

I, I kind of feel the same way that Jamie does. I think that this is an offense that can continue to put up big points week in and week out, and I think they're going to be in a lot of high scoring games. The guy that I get a little worried about is David Montgomery because he doesn't fit into the explosive scoreboard, shootout type of game script the same way that other Lions do. He can always score. And I think when you start David Montgomery in fantasy, you. You use a pen, you use ink to give him a touchdown every single week. It's what else he can do. On top of that, last year he did a bunch. This year, I'm wondering if that goes down a little bit. I think there's value in Jared Goff. I know that on fantasy Pros, he's the 10th QB off the board. In our fan mock drafts, he's currently the 15th quarterback off the board. Amazing value for a guy who shouldn't fall below 20 points per game. But if, if they do what we think they're going to do and it's just going to be so easy for, for Morton, their new play caller, to say, all right, what, we've got all these weapons on offense. Let's just keep airing it out whether they need to or not. Man, I, I could see Jared Goff being an extremely good value while his, his ADP plummets because he's not sexy. He doesn't have the upside, the perceived upside of a Caleb Williams or a Kyler Murray or maybe even a Trevor Lawrence.

[Heath]

Yeah, I, you know, just golf could be great value. He threw for 4,629yards and 37 touchdowns and he was our. It was QB8 per game, so it's hard to see him being like fifth per game. What's that?

[Dan]

He didn't run very much.

[Heath]

No. And he won't. He had 56 rushing yards. It's funny. That's true. It's funny because David Montgomery, I think is one of the only Lions that has a chance to outperform his ADP.

[Jamie]

I couldn't agree more.

[Heath]

Right. You know he's been RV50, that's a good bargain game twice in a row.

[Jamie]

Yep.

[Heath]

And in fact he was RB10 per 11 per game at the time of his injury and then ended up as RB15 per game. But, but that doesn't mean everything will stay the same. I mean, if they have a bigger role for Gibbs, maybe they have a smaller role for Montgomery. We don't know. All right, that's the Lions. We got more names for you after this. When we come back on fantasy football Today.

[Dave]

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[Heath]

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[Jamie]

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[Heath]

Right, Heath, Baker Mayfield is someone that you want to talk about here. He threw 41 touchdowns. I see a lot of aggression here because the touchdowns but also the rushing yards. I don't know how you feel about that. 378 rushing yards. He also fumbled 13 times and only lost two of them. I bring that up a lot. So he scares me a little bit. But at the same time I, I think about what Baker Mayfield did in the last like six games or so of 2023 and he was phenomenal. And then he just continued it all throughout 2024. So how do you balance great production for almost a year and a half with some obvious regression, you know, factors.

[Dave]

I think that's a good point is that if a player was exceptionally great and better than they've ever been, they are probably going to be a regression candidate that especially like if they're 24 or 25. Maybe they just reached a new level and maybe they can keep that up if they're 29 or 30. I think even as a quarterback it's probably better to bet on their regression. He set career highs last year in completion percentage, passing yards, passing touchdowns, yards per pass attempt, passing yards or passer rating, rushing yards, rushing yards per carry, and tied his career high in rushing touchdowns. I would not be surprised if not all but one or two of those things get worse this coming year.

[Heath]

Baker Mayfield is currently QB7 in our.

[Dave]

Early and I was doing a podcast last night and he's actually in the fantasy pros ECR ahead of Patrick Mahomes at QB6.

[Heath]

Is that out? Is that outrageous? Because he was much better than Mahomes last year.

[Dave]

Obviously that's why it's not outrageous, but I would not want to make that bet.

[Dan]

No.

[Heath]

Okay, so far in our early ADP Dave, he's Mayfield's QB7. He's going 14 picks after Mahomes. He's going 78th overall and QB8 is Bo Nix.

[Dan]

Yeah I, I, I have them ranked in that order. Mahomes at 6, Mayfield 7, Bonix 8. But I, I would take my homes like 20 spots ahead of Mayfield and I'm not even sure if I'm going to keep Mayfield there just because I expect the regression to be really really significant.

[Heath]

Okay, let's talk about James Cook. James Cook scored 16 touchdowns. I gave this stat that James Cook is only the second running back in the last eight seasons to lead the position in rushing touchdowns. He was tied for the lead, lead the position in rushing touchdowns and finish lower than RB5 per game. He was in PPR. He was QB. Oh he's RB11 per game 8th per game and non 10th per game and half 11th per game in full PPR. This is James Cook and he did that with 16 rushing touchdowns and two receiving touchdowns. Heath, when should James Cook be drafted?

[Dave]

This one is is painful to me obviously because I was a huge James Cook backer last year and he kind of did it in a way that I didn't really expect. I'm still okay with him at the 34 turn but that if you were going to put a guy's face on a regression article, James Cook would be the guy's face to put on that article. He actually had fewer rush attempts per game last year than he did in 2023. He actually had fewer receptions per game than he did in 2023. This was a full blown committee with him leading it, but way too much Ty Johnson and, or Ray Davis and I. The volume's just not there to sustain anything close. He had four rushing touchdowns. He was on the show last year. He had four rushing touchdowns on 326 career attempts coming into the year. He had 16 rushing touchdowns on 207 attempts last year. And he's unhappy with his contract.

[Dan]

Yes, that's a big deal. If he holds out from training camp, I think everybody will make him one of the easiest fades in fantasy.

[Heath]

Jamie, where are you on James Cook?

[Jamie]

I agree, you know, it's, it's tough to say go get him, you know, when, when you have a lot of things that are potentially happening now. If he does show up for camp and he is a good soldier, does get a, you know, contract extension, that, that'll make things a little bit more comforting for, you know, what his, his potential could still be. But the touchdowns are going to come down. You know, to whatever extent it is, it's going to be how he performs because I don't, I don't think the receptions will dramatically increase because of how this offense is operating and will continue to operate. I don't think the carries will increase because I think they'd like Ray Davis and we'll give him, you know, chances to carry the ball. So if he's not, you know, probably close to 15 total touchdowns, then you're, you're looking at a guy that is closer to probably the 20th running back than the 10th.

[Heath]

And what do you think?

[Dave]

Oh, God, that's really close to where he is in my projections. I think I have him at RB18 right now.

[Heath]

James Cook was RB19 per game, 23 in 2023 when he had six total touchdowns, two rushing, four receiving. He did have more catches that year. And I, the, I pointed out to Dave, you know, the Bills ran the second fewest plays in football last year, so they ran, I think, five fewer plays per game and, but they are pretty run heavy teams since Joe Brady took over. So here's my, here's my take. I want to know what you guys think of this now. Hold out is a different situation if he holds out, everything changes. If he doesn't hold out. James Cook is one of my favorite picks in round three. I know this regression thing. Absolutely. I get it. I don't expect him to score a touchdown per game, but he is the lead running back for one of the consistently best offenses every single year. He's a factor near the goal line. It's not just Josh Allen. I've made this point before that, there have been years where Frank Gore or Latavius Murray have actually gotten their fair share of goal line carries and they just haven't done anything with it. Well, Cook led the team in goal line carries last year. He also had a lot of long runs because he's really good. He is a great player on a great offense. He is their lead running back. He is a super safe pick in round three, assuming he doesn't hold out, and he's one of my favorite picks. Your thoughts?

[Jamie]

I don't think anybody's saying not to take him in round three, but I.

[Heath]

Love him in round three. I don't even have any.

[Jamie]

That's fine. You know, especially if you go, you know, receiver, receiver, and everything's lined up right from receiver, tight end. It's, it's a great spot to take a chance on a guy like you said in his, in this offense and, and what he has shown you, because even at what he produced in 2023, I think being a top 20 running back is, is something he can replicate. Exactly how he gets there will be the interesting part of it. But to count on him to score, you know, 16 rushing touchdowns, again, 18 total touchdowns, and, and to be one of the leaders in that category, I think then you're taking a little bit too much of a risk and just expecting that to be the case.

[Dan]

If, if I guaranteed you his exact same total yardage and catches from 2024, but half the touchdown, so he goes from 18 to nine, are you still taking him in round three, Adam?

[Heath]

No, round four, okay.

[Dan]

He's 13.3 PPR points per game on 16 games. That's what he played, basically. And that's if he, if his touchdowns come down by half. That's not a round three guy. I don't think that's a round four guy. He needs the touchdowns.

[Dave]

I think you're like your argument about the lead back on what is one of the best offenses in the NFL is a good one, but you have to put it in a little bit of context. He had 42% of his team's rush attempts last year. He had 46% of his team's running back targets.

[Dan]

Yep.

[Heath]

Yeah. No, I don't know why the targets went the targets. Going down was a little bit of a concern, but he had most of the running back carries. He had about two thirds of the running back carries, I believe.

[Dave]

But that doesn't matter. If you have a quarterback that runs the ball 115 times, I'm not really.

[Heath]

So worried about this, I just feel like we're overthinking it a little bit. We want lead running backs on great offenses. And the fact that he scored six touchdowns in 2023 and was RB19 per game, that tells me that he's got a really good chance of being a top 15 running back by the time you get to the end of round three. You're probably somewhere around RB15 in ADP. Right. So we always talk about drafting a guy hit his ceiling or his floor for drafting James Cook as RB15 Again, assuming there's no holdout. I think we're drafting him pretty close to his floor because he would have to have like a six touchdown season to be worse than that in my opinion.

[Dan]

Or a nine touchdown season.

[Dave]

Like, like I said, I think if it's last year's workload then a nine touchdown season would do because there was a big drop in his sketches last year.

[Heath]

It was.

[Dave]

And I just. Listen, I love James Cook.

[Heath]

I'm sorry.

[Dave]

All I did last summer was talk good about James Cook. So I'm not, I'm not questioning his talent. I think he's awesome.

[Heath]

Right.

[Dave]

I don't love the way they're divvying up touches.

[Heath]

Yeah, they also had a lot of blowouts last year and I think that probably contributed.

[Dave]

I would anticipate they have a lot of blowouts this year.

[Heath]

He had four touch. I think he had four touchdowns of 40 or more yards. If that's, I mean that's good and bad, but he'll get more carries if he doesn't keep breaking away long runs. But I, I don't know. I think again, I don't. I can't sit here and accurately predict his catches or his touches or whatever. I just know that I want the lead running back with the Buffalo Bills especially because he's awesome. He's not just some slug.

[Jamie]

I think just to, just to sum it up with what Heath said, the, the latest you'll probably try to draft him is the 34 turn. My guess is his ADP is going to be somewhere in the middle around 3.

[Heath]

It is currently 35th. So about that. And you know what's interesting and this is just the early CBS ADP super early. It's 35th, but the, the running back ADP before that, Chase Brown and Bucky Irving, they are 24th. So right now James Cook, Joe Mixon, Ken Walker are all going at the 34 turn and there's nobody being drafted in between the 23 turn and the 34 turn at running back It's Chase Brown, Bucky Irving, a whole round James Cook, Joe Mixon, Ken Walker, and Breece Hall a couple picks later. It's not that many drafts that we're talking about here, but I just thought that was interesting. All right, Heath, let's talk about two wide receivers. Terry McLaurin, 13 touchdowns after four straight seasons with four to five touchdowns. He didn't really do it with a lot more targets or anything like that. 117 targets, 13 touchdowns. T. Higgins, 109 targets in 12 games and 10 touchdowns as Hickens finished as a top five wide receiver on a per game basis, McLaurin was 16th. You think about that. McLaurin, 16th per game in PPR with 13 touchdowns. Who, who concerns you more, McLaren or Higgins?

[Dave]

McLaren. I feel really good, like how you feel about taking James Cook in round three. I feel that if you happen to get Higgins in round three and I'm okay with him late in round two, I think he's probably going to score a fewer touchdowns, but I still think he's going to be awesome. McLaurin worries me a lot because he did not do anything different or special last year besides score a touchdown on 12% of his targets, which is like double what you might expect from a really great wide receiver and triple what Terry McLaurin's done throughout his entire career before last year. His targets went down last year by 15. His catches were not a career high. His yards were the third best of his career. Like it was just that Terry McLaurin scored a lot of touchdowns and those are the biggest red flag guys for me. So I, I would really not like. I've got Terry McLaurin, I think right behind James Cook. And so it's the three, four turn again. But I don't want to take him early in round three, which is why I kind of get stuck at wide receiver, because he's still a top 15 wide receiver for me in the rankings. But I don't love that range.

[Heath]

It's very interesting because obviously the touchdowns come in the first year with Jaden Daniels. The team threw 29 touchdowns, which is the most in any year of Terry McLaurin's career. Previous high for Washington was 24 touchdowns. And the other factor is he was among the NFL leaders in end zone targets. He got a ton of those 16 end zone targets. His previous career high was 11. He had 15 end zone targets the previous two seasons. Then McLaurin had 16 last year. So that. So Heath has some, some trepidation there with McLaurin. Dave, how do you feel about him?

[Dan]

I feel the same way. I do think he can do better than four or five touchdowns. That's what he had in 2022 and 2023. But all of his receiving metrics are basically the same from last year compared to his prior two years. The only difference is the end zone targets that you just talked about. That might be something that just comes with the territory moving forward. Not only a Jane Daniels thing, but a Cliff Kingsbury thing as well. And it makes sense. He's your best receiver. He can find ways to get open throwing the ball in the paint and so that could continue a little bit. I, I wouldn't have a problem projecting McLaurin for eight touchdowns. And now that we know what his numbers are, pretty much be targets. Wise catch, wise yardage, wise man like you can kind of set your watch so to an expectation for McLaurin and draft him accordingly.

[Heath]

And Jamie, where are you on McLaurin who had 1096 yards and 13 touchdowns in 17 games?

[Jamie]

I think there's, you know, two ways to look at his, you know, expectation for this year is one is that the hope is Jaden Daniels gets better and just the passing game continues to flourish in Washington and he's still going to be the biggest benefactor of that as the lead receiver. This, the other part of this is they added Debo Samuel. So those red zone opportunities may not necessarily disappear but may get a little bit, you know, dicey because of what Debo's able to do from not just catching the ball but also running the ball. So it's sort of, I think levels it out a little bit. You have to expect fewer touchdowns. That's just the, the nature of a player like this. Like Keith said, I think the, there are two guys to me that sort of fall into this range of receivers that are going to get drafted and it's their touchdown dependent. It's Terry McLaurin and Cortland Sutton and you know, they're, they're both, I think have top 20 upside. They both have the potential to lead their team. They're both with second year quarterbacks that showed a lot of promise in their rookie campaign. But if the touchdowns disappear then it's going to be tough to say that they're must start wide receivers. They'll still be good, they'll still be starters in three receiver leagues, but will they be starters in, in two receiver leagues consistently? So if you're, if you're concerned about those numbers coming down now Sutton has done it two years in a Row, you know, A plus touchdowns eats the last two years with this, with the same coach. Is this really just an outlier for McLaurin or is he starting to get to a point where now you're seeing the talent come through and it's, you know, because he got a better quarterback and a better coaching staff to help him, you know, bring those things out. So I, I think again, we're, we're talking about the range to draft him. Round three, 4ish, depending on, you know, where the receivers are on your draft board. That's the, the right range for those guys. So if receiver heavy drafts, he's probably going to go in round three. If it's not, he's probably going to go around four. Maybe he sneaks into round five. But you're still talking about a guy that should be considered a top 20 receiver with the hope that he can get close to 10 touchdowns. You know, I think anything over eight would be a good season for him if the numbers stay the same.

[Dave]

Adam, There were two. Go ahead, Dave.

[Dan]

Go ahead.

[Heath]

Let's go to Dave real quick.

[Dan]

If you take away five touchdowns from his numbers last year, that's eight touchdowns. It's 14 PPR points per game. That's fine.

[Heath]

Yeah, that's good.

[Dan]

Yeah, no complaints.

[Heath]

You're up.

[Dave]

There were two wide receivers for the Washington Commanders last year besides Terry McLaurin who scored more than one touchdown last year. Two of them scored and funny, one of them scored three, the other one scored two. So can you name. Don't. No. Stop looking at your monitor. Who were the two wide receivers who scored more than one touchdown for the Commanders that were not named? Terry McQuillan.

[Heath]

Yeah. Diami Brown.

[Dave]

The Army Brown only had one.

[Heath]

Noah Brown. He had two.

[Dave]

Noah Brown only had one.

[Heath]

No, Noah Brown had three. I have no idea.

[Dave]

Alamade Zakias.

[Dan]

Yeah, right.

[Jamie]

His Falcons revenge game.

[Dave]

And Jameson Crowder.

[Heath]

I think the Army Brown actually led the team. Let me double check. The Army Brown led the team in targets. No. Zach Ersted in the playoffs. Oh, Diami Brown led the team in receiving yards in the playoffs. I, I'll give one optimistic outlook here for McLaren. I want to know what you guys think of it. So the first five starts for Jaden Daniels, he averaged 26.2 pass attempts per game. In his sixth start, he left. I think he threw two passes, got hurt against the Titans. Or was it the Titans? Someone bad. And then whatever. That game doesn't count the next. Well, I mean, I'm not going to start the game. He barely Played. I'm going to count that the next nine starts. 33.3 pass attempts per game for Jaden Daniels. So I see McLaurin with 117 targets. If Jane Daniels is really throwing 33 times a game, I think we're going to get more like 130 targets, at least for McLaurin. I don't know, you know, what you project for past attempts. That's kind of a lot for a mobile.

[Dave]

So you're talking about week eight through week 17 last year?

[Heath]

Yeah.

[Dave]

Terry McLaurin was on pace for 106 targets.

[Heath]

What? He had a low target share then.

[Dave]

He had 12 in week 18.

[Heath]

Oh, we haven't even mentioned Zach, Debo Samuel, did we? Yeah, we did. Jamie did. Okay.

[Dave]

Jamie did.

[Heath]

All right. Did we mention commercial break? Because we got to do one of those. We'll talk about three tight ends who have touchdown regression coming their way. Hope maybe hopefully in one case. In two cases, hopefully not in another. We'll be right back to talk about some tight ends and other aggression candidates in yards after this.

[Dave]

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[Dan]

Roll baller. Lonzo Ball for buzzballs.

[Dave]

Ready to go.

[Dan]

Cocktails take 12 buzzballs.

[Dave]

Just dropped their biggest blue balls.

[Dan]

Script says Biggie's blue balls. Lonzo, take 13 blue balls.

[Dave]

Just dropped their biggest buzzballs.

[Heath]

Ugh. A vocal exercise. Buzz balls, Biggies. Blue balls. Buzz balls. Biggies.

[Jamie]

Blue balls.

[Dave]

Big balls.

[Heath]

Just drop. Get blue balls.

[Jamie]

This season with buzz balls, please, you're responsibly.

[Dan]

Buzzball's available in spirit wine and malt.

[Heath]

15 alcohol by volume. Buzzballs, LLC. Carrollton, Texas. Trey McBride was the number three tight end per game with two touchdowns on 147 targets. Travis Kelce was the number seven tight end per game with three touchdowns on 133 targets. And then you got Mark Andrews, number eight tight end per game, in full PPR with 11 touchdowns, which led the position. Blew away everyone else on only 69 targets. That is insane. All right, Heath, break it down. Who. Who's got the Most regression coming? McBride. Kelsey Andrews, I think.

[Dave]

McBride definitely has the most progression coming, but also it may be the least interesting because everybody knows it and everybody's hoping for it and everybody's drafting them like it's definitely going to happen. And so you could tell me that some people have been concerned about McBride because Marvin Harrison is going to take a step forward. I think there's absolutely room for Trey McBride to lose a target per game, take 17 targets away, and he makes up for that with touchdowns, even if he still has a low touchdown rate. I you don't generally project anybody for lower than a 4% touchdown rate at the tight end position. And his was way lower than that. So wouldn't be surprised if he triples his touchdowns from last year to make up for any lost targets to Harrison. I think Kelsey's the most interesting because everybody's worried about the decline and it's that number you said that they're so important is 133 targets. Yeah, like he was. He didn't. He was bad. He was bad in terms of efficiency. And still the only reason he wasn't a top four tight end is because of some crazy bad touchdown luck.

[Heath]

Was it bad touchdown luck? He got fewer end zone targets. He doesn't do anything after the catch. I mean, I'm sure it was a little bit of bad touchdown luck, but also was it just. He's not that good anymore. I think that's what the fact that he really saw a huge drop in his Yak. We're talking about Travis Kelsey here. And his explosive play rate was 11 last year. Explosive plays per target. In his prime, Travis Kelsey's explosive play rate was regularly over 22%. So we are talking about a guy who is making plays, explosive plays half as frequently now. So was that a reason for it or was it just bad luck? I think I look at the fewer end zone targets. I look at just less playmaking ability and thinking he's, you know, maybe just not going to be reliable for touchdowns. I don't know.

[Dave]

Well, I think it's instructive to talk about your favorite player. He had 10 more targets than Tyree Kill last year. Their Yak was basically the same. Which is really tells you something about Tyree Kill.

[Heath]

No, because Tyree kills adot was probably double Kelsey's.

[Dave]

Their Yak was basically the same. And Tyree Kill scored twice as many touchdowns.

[Heath]

Yeah, okay. Yak and and a dot have got to be mentioned together. Kelsey's a dot was 6.6 yards. I think. I'm guessing Tyreek's was about 12, 1111. Okay, that's a huge difference there.

[Dave]

But the year before, Kelsey was at five and Tyreek was at five and a half, so they saw a similar drop in their yuck.

[Heath]

But okay. Yeah, but Tyreek was just hurt. He's fine. Yeah. I don't know. I don't know what to expect from Kelsey. I mean, the targets he. He barely played with Rice, right? How many. Remember how bad he was the first three weeks with Rasheed Rice on the field? How many targets did he get those weeks? 4, 3, and 5. After that, 19 targets in his next two games with Rasheed Rice hurt. Right. So I think that's another thing to think about here, is if Rice is healthy and Worthy is taking the next step, what are we looking at for Travis Kelsey? Yikes.

[Jamie]

Also, the. Is the game plan the same? You know, get to the end of the season, then start to ramp them up a little bit as we saw going into the playoffs, with the hope that it's another super bowl run and he can, you know, get his ring again and maybe then call it quits. But I think just based on who he has been, who he's still playing with and the group of tight ends that you're talking about that are getting drafted around him, like, that's what you're banking on. You're still banking on his. His. And this is name over game, which I. I hate. But this is really what you're. You're looking at here. And, you know, like, I think he should go after Najoku. I don't know if ADP will reflect that. It doesn't.

[Dan]

It does not.

[Jamie]

It doesn't go that way in. In best ball draft so far. Like, you can see the flaws for Andrews, which I know I'm sure we'll talk about. You could see the flaws for John Smith. You know, you talked about this Adam, that, you know, one. One year wonder maybe of. Of what his, you know, late career breakout, maybe, you know, these. Tucker Kraft has never done it to this level. You know, so whatever tight ends you're sort of putting in this range, you know, after really, like, tight end six or so, then he's worth the gamble. But I think you just have to understand, like, it's been two years of this. Of him not being that type of guy. Two years ago, he was still really good. Last year, he really fell off cliff. And if rice is back 100, if worthy is as legit as he showed at the end of the season, if Marquis Brown is a factor after what, you know, not really having an impact at all last year. Like this could be a target crunch for Kelsey which he's never seen.

[Heath]

Yeah. Additionally, here are the end zone target leaders for the Chiefs last year. Number one was DeAndre Hopkins with eight. That's wild. Worthy with eight, Noah Gray with six, Travis Kelsey with five. And here's their pass rate rank from inside the five yard line. Over the last five seasons the Chiefs were third, then ninth, then third, then fifth. Last year they were 14th and then Heath. I wonder how do you, how do you combine this? Kelsey low touchdown rate with also Mahomes. Right. Like it's not like Mahomes had a low touchdown rate the last few years at four and a half percent but for him those are by far the lowest of his career.

[Dave]

Yeah. And I don't think that Patrick Mahomes is washed. So I would expect some like we expected regression last year. We didn't get it. I think Dave's going to talk about it later. We expect regression from Mahomes again this year. We expect him to be better than he was in terms of yards and I would say in terms of touchdowns than he's been the last two years. And that will be a part of Travis Kelsey scoring more touchdowns if he does. I think the concerns you guys brought up about targets and if Rice and if Worthy, those are all really valid. They're just like what we're looking at is what the guy did on the opportunity he had and kind of assuming the opportunity is going to stay relatively the same without somebody important being added to the mix. Maybe rice will be 100 and not suspended and maybe Worthy will continue what he did without Rice at the end of the year.

[Jamie]

And it also could be those guys opening up just easier paths.

[Dave]

Right.

[Jamie]

Success for Kelsey because now you have so many different ways to hurt defenses that okay, the 36 year old tight end is not going to be the problem. It's more the, the speed on the outside and what Rice is doing maybe in the middle of the field as well. So while he may lose some targets, he may benefit just based on, you know, not as much bracket coverage and you know, teams just really trying to take him away because they know how much he means to moms.

[Dan]

He'll never be double teamed. If Rice and Worthy be get become even more established in the Chief's offense, defenses won't be scared by Kelsey. Kelsey will be my home's second read on every single third down in red zone play at worst. So I, I think he still sees a good amount of targets. Let's not Forget that. Like last year, he totally sucked. No one was happy with him. Still average 12.2 PPR points per game, which for a tight end is pretty damn good.

[Dave]

Still better than Sam Laporta, which is.

[Dan]

Crazy, but also factual.

[Heath]

My biggest issue, I think, is those first three games and the fact that he just wasn't being targeted when Rashid Rice was on the field. It's easy to forget about those. But, man, this is a. You. Sometimes you wonder, is this guy in decline? I'm not sure. It's so clear. Right? It just.

[Dan]

Yeah, he can't run anymore.

[Dave]

It's just at a position where 12 or 13 fantasy points is still really good. You're talking about a guy that's declined from 18 to 20 fantasy points or 17 to 19 fantasy points.

[Jamie]

Whatever it was.

[Heath]

Right.

[Dan]

It's just what his ADP is so far.

[Heath]

Did we want to talk about Mark Andrews with 69 targets and 11 touchdowns and 17 games. And he was tight end six per game and non PPR, seventh per game in half PPR and eighth per game and full PPR. And that was actually a bad season for Mark Andrews, who had been top five per game in PPR and five straight seasons before finishing eighth last year. Heath, are you optimistic for Mark Andrews?

[Dave]

Nope. Not at all. Oh, I, I'm faking my ranking to make up for the fact that he comes out as tight end 16 in the projections.

[Heath]

Oh, and what is your ranking?

[Dave]

10 or 11. I'd much rather draft Kelsey.

[Dan]

I would too.

[Heath]

Jamie, Kelsey or Andrews?

[Jamie]

Oh, Kelsey.

[Heath]

Okay.

[Dave]

I'd rather draft Hawkinson. I'd rather draft Tucker Kraft.

[Dan]

I've got two rookies ahead of Mark Andrews. That might be a little too far, but I, I'm, I, I'm worried about his touchdowns coming down, his volume, not rebounding. We. We know how a lot of the other touchdowns in Baltimore were scored last year. I don't think Derrick Henry is being written out of the game plan whatsoever. So is this Mark Andrews gonna score a ton of touchdowns like he did last year? I'm gonna bet against that.

[Jamie]

I kind of view Andrews the way you view Cook. Adam, though. Like top pass catcher on a great offense.

[Heath]

And not though. But he's not the top pass catcher.

[Jamie]

Well, he's. I'm not saying he's the top pack a top pass.

[Heath]

Yeah, okay. Sure. Yeah.

[Jamie]

On. On a great offense. And he talked about this maybe a month or so ago about, you know, just like who Mark Andrews has been and you know, like, again, when you look at this position, think about some of the names that we just said, like Dave said, the two rookies, they could easily be better than him. I mean, there's so much potential for those guys, but there's so many ifs for them as well and what rookie tight ends have done. And so when you start to get into that jumbled mix, like we're hoping for Tucker Kraft to take a step forward and I think a lot of it's for him to do that, it's probably going to be scoring more touchdowns. Well, we know what this offense has been in Green Bay in terms of the lack of targets for everybody and so many mouths to feed. And they just drafted two guys in the first three rounds of the NFL draft that are probably going to have some opportunities and maybe Christian Watson comes back sooner than we think, you know, so it's just this, this group of tight ends like Andrews, the car accident, we don't know how much that played a factor in the beginning part of the season. Then the second half of the season he took off. Off and not took off, but played, you know, a bigger role and had certainly more production. A lot of it again being the touchdowns. But how much of it is what Harbaugh has said this off season when the thought was they might get rid of him and maybe likely has a big role and all these things could change and Hopkins being there, that could certainly take away some touchdowns as well based on, you know, what he's done. But we're asking that from a 30 plus year old receiver also. So I think Lamar Jackson really relies on Mark Andrews quite a bit and relies on him in the red zone. We know that as much as Jackson runs, he does not run near the goal line as much as some of these other running quarterbacks, Justin Fields in particular. I just think that there's still an opportunity for him to get more chances and still be an eight plus touchdown guy. And so when you get to the back half of, of the tight end, the top 10 tight ends, he still belongs there.

[Dave]

In my opinion, to Dave's point of what he said about Kelsey and Mahomes being tied together with the touchdown rate. Yeah, that's definitely the case with LaMar Jackson. His six seasons as a starter, 9% when he won the MVP back in 2019, 6.9, 4.2, 5.2, 5.3 and then back up to 8.6 last year. So Lamar is definitely a touchdown passing, touchdown regression guy too.

[Heath]

Oh man. How did he not win the MVP last year? Unbelievable.

[Dave]

He was. Yeah, he was definitely.

[Heath]

Yeah, it was rough.

[Dave]

Well, because because it was just a makeup people maybe recognized that maybe they should have given it to Alan the year before. So they gave it to Alan this year to make up for it.

[Heath]

The premise of Josh Allen should have won The MVP in 2023 is so silly. He. He got basically was one of the reasons why his offensive coordinator got fired because he threw so many interceptions. And you're telling me he should have won the mvp?

[Dave]

I would just like for Matt Weber to recognize. I'm not saying this, Adam.

[Heath]

I love Josh Allen. He's. I might be the only. Does any have him as QB1?

[Dan]

I do.

[Heath]

Okay. I do too. I love Josh Allen, but he did not deserve the MVP last year. Lamar Jackson should be a three time MVP winner. It was ridiculous. And, and what was the first one? Was he the first one ever to. To win the ap? Like whatever it was like, you know.

[Jamie]

I believe you're right. Yes.

[Heath]

And not win the mvp. Which is the same exact voters I believe vote for the two awards. And he won the one that was like a month before, a few weeks before and he didn't win the mvp. It was so stupid.

[Jamie]

All right, it is. It is pretty interesting that probably our two most active members in the chat, one's a Ravens fan and one's a Bills fan.

[Heath]

Is that right, Adam? Finally. Right? Thank you, Mr. Papinski. Appreciate that. Mr. Pepinski, so named after Soda Popinski of Punch Out. I. I don't know how. One of the best things I've ever done. One of my crowning achievements is beating Mike Tyson and Mike Tyson's Punch Out. I tried again a few weeks ago against like Mr. Dream because I don't have Punch out, but same guy as Mike Tyson. I don't have the like Mike Tyson punch Out. It is impossible. I mean that is like video games used to be so hard. It's really difficult. I don't know how I did it, but I'm happy I did. Okay. All right, Dave, we don't have time for all these guys. I'm sorry, but yards regression. You got Saquon, Derrick Henry with crazy yardage totals and total yards. You have their total yards listed here, I'm assuming?

[Dan]

Yeah. Over 2100 total yards for each of them.

[Jamie]

Yeah.

[Heath]

And almost 2300 for Barkley, Aaron Jones, 1546 total yards. Yeah. With Saquon and Henry specifically, your level.

[Dan]

Of concern, it's pretty high for Saquon. Less so for Derrick Henry because Saquon took on more work. And I just, I don't think anybody should ever doubt Derek Henry saquon had almost 500 total touches last year. The previous two times he had at least 350 touches in the season. He came back with worse numbers, worse point per game numbers in fantasy the following year, missed some games the following year. And I think you, you should bake in some sort of regression, be it because of health or just overall efficiency. When it comes to Saquon this year, I don't like him as the number one running back. I don't like him as the number two running back either. I think if I can get him in the middle of round one as the third best running back in fantasy, I'll do it, but I'm, I'm not, I'm not targeting Saquon in drafts.

[Jamie]

The, the most telling number for me with Saquon is There have been eight other 2,000 yard rushers and every single one of them have declined by over 500 yards the previous, the next season. Yeah, every single one. So six of them, six of the eight were over 800 yards less the following season. So I, I made some future bets yesterday and I was looking at Saquon's prop for the season. It was 1500 rushing yards, and I was like, oh, that's interesting because again, the number comes down, but if it comes down only 500, he's still over this number. So it's, it's, it's. It's tough to say he's going to get close to that. It's easy to say he's going to regress. And, and to what level is. Is really the concerning part of it because not just again, the, the history of 2000 yard rushers, it's also all the work as Dave alluded to. You know, the, it's just scary that he could, he could really be at this point, which I hate to say because I love Saquon, but it's just, it's just. Yeah, the, the historical side of this is just not on, on his side.

[Heath]

Derrick Henry went from 20, 27 yards in 16 games to 937 yards in eight games the following year. But actually, yeah, he did hurt his foot. He went from 5.4 yards per carry to 4.3 and then 4.4 and then 4.2. And then last year, Derrick Henry averaged 5.9 yards per carry. It was.

[Dan]

Changed teams, different scheme.

[Heath]

I know, but that's, that's insane. That's insane. That can't happen again. Heath, I'm going to let you answer this as I think the phrasing of it will Suit you. I haven't drafted Derek Henry once in any of our drafts. I really don't think I have. I was just looking at a few. I can't remember ever drafting him so far in our 2025 mocks. What's wrong with me?

[Dave]

Yeah, I don't know if it has anything to do with Derek Henry. I'll just say I've just been sitting here silent during this segment because I said enough things about historical precedents and Saquon Barkley and Derek Henry last off season that I just have to sit in the corner.

[Heath]

But I agree that there's something wrong with me.

[Dave]

Well, it sounds like. Like the common. What's the common denominator between losing to Dan and tennis and being the worst softball player in the league and not being able to beat a kid's video game? I think that what's wrong with you is probably something related to coordination or dexterity.

[Heath]

I. Okay the softball, I'm terrible. Tennis, I'm better. I'm really good at punch out. Like beating Super Macho man is not easy, I'll tell you that. You know. You know what I'm talking about.

[Jamie]

People that will come back to hunt, you know?

[Dan]

Yeah. Please make a. A A gif of that.

[Heath]

Gif.

[Jamie]

You got your wish, though. We're back to make it funny.

[Heath]

Yeah, I think I set myself up pretty well at this show.

[Dan]

Gift, Jeff. Whatever. Listen, Adam, you're picking 10th overall in a fantasy draft.

[Heath]

Yeah.

[Dan]

You get the receiver of your choice in round one.

[Heath]

Yeah.

[Dan]

Derrick Henry's there in round two. Are you taking him?

[Heath]

It's funny you mentioned that because in a league where I had the ninth overall pick, I took Nico Collins, my receiver of choice, this. And then when I was up again with the fourth pick of round two, Derrick Henry was already off the board. Now you took him. If he had been on the board, I would have take. I would have taken Brian Thomas Jr. Over him, and that's probably it. Maybe A.J. brown. Once A.J. brown's off the board, we're talking Drake London, Bucky Irving, Jonathan Taylor. I'm definitely taking Henry over those guys, but I think I would probably need to have pick 10, 11, or 12 for me to end up with Derrick Henry because that I would take him in the second round with one of those first three picks.

[Jamie]

I think his average is going to be round one, though.

[Dan]

It's 14.5 right now.

[Heath]

It was a lot higher than we thought it would be last year. The chat today, it's been really good. Very sharp. Very sharp. I Think we can hide the comment, Heath? I think it's been on there long enough.

[Dave]

You hadn't seen it, so I needed to do a reaction.

[Heath]

Okay, well, that's it for. Oh, wait, hold on one second. I want to read it. An Apple podcast question. I have to bring it up. What are you guys up to this weekend?

[Dan]

Baseball practice, wedding ring shopping.

[Heath]

Okay.

[Jamie]

He doesn't know what happened to you?

[Heath]

No.

[Dan]

Monday is my wife's birthday. It's also Memorial Day. We go to the beach. I'm playing catch with my son on the beach. Next thing I know, my wedding band is off my hand. Don't know where it is. It's somewhere in the Atlantic Ocean. Wife's not happy, I freak out. Anybody know any good jewelers?

[Dave]

Yeah. Taking your wedding band off when you go to the beach is a bold move, especially if you're with your wife.

[Heath]

You didn't take. Did you take your wedding ring off?

[Dave]

I don't think you should play catch with your wedding ring either.

[Dan]

I probably shouldn't have, but I did because I'm a. And now I'm an even bigger. Because I don't have a. A wedding band.

[Jamie]

I just don't understand how she get mad at you for this though. Like if you had taken it off like to Heath scenario, like you took it off to go to the beach, that's a different story.

[Dan]

I don't know. But everywhere I go now, there are women that are much friendlier to me than they were last week.

[Dave]

Some 70 year olds out there with a metal detector and he found 100.

[Heath]

Yeah, for sure.

[Dan]

They're gonna get themselves an amazing hundred and fifty dollar wedding band.

[Heath]

I know, right?

[Dan]

They're not even like I bought on clearance at Zales.

[Heath]

I don't wear mine. I never wear mine. Is that bad? I rarely wear mine.

[Dan]

You probably just don't love being married.

[Heath]

I love being married, but I hate wearing jewelry. Not my thing. All right, I don't have any Apple podcast questions. I saw we had some new comments, but they are all just comments, which I appreciate. Thank you. Nice five star reviews. Appreciate that. But no questions in there, so I won't read any. I don't want the show to end. I'm having so much fun. But it will end. We will talk to you on Monday with new, oh, four shows a week. Next week it's June, so we'll have four shows a week. Good stuff. We'll talk to you then. On Fantasy football today.

[Adam]

Paramount podcasts. What's up hoop fans? I'm Ashley Nicole Moss. And I'm bringing you Triple Threat. Your weekly courtside pass. The most interesting moments and conversations in the NBA. From clutch performances to the stories shaping the game on and off the court, Triple Threat has you covered. With it all culture, drama and social media buzz. We're locked in. Just like you're locked in. Watch weekly on CBS Sports Network at 1pm Eastern or on the CBS Sports YouTube channel as we break it all down fast, fast and fresh. This is Triple Threat, where basketball meets culture.