Rookie Debates! Henderson vs Hampton, Burden Vs Golden + More (05/30 Fantasy Football Dynasty Podcast)

Summary

Podcast Summary: Fantasy Football Today – Episode: "Rookie Debates! Henderson vs Hampton, Burden vs Golden + More" (Released May 30, 2025)

In this engaging episode of Fantasy Football Today, host Heath Cummings and analyst Jacob Gibbs delve deep into the intricacies of the 2025 rookie class, debating key players and their potential impacts on fantasy football strategies. Skipping over the numerous advertisements interspersed throughout the episode, the hosts focus on delivering valuable insights for fantasy managers aiming to dominate their leagues.

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1. Introduction to the Episode

Heath Cummings reintroduces himself and Jacob Gibbs, setting the stage for a robust discussion centered around rookie rankings and their implications for dynasty leagues. Heath shares updates on his recent work, including his deep dives into quarterback analytics and the evolving dynamics of running back usage schemes influenced by incoming coaches like Chip Kelly, Josh McDaniels, and Mike Rabel.

Key Quote:

Heath Cummings [01:50]: “If you've been on Twitter at all, you see that I'm really diving deep into the quarterback analytics and film, and that's been really fun.”

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2. Rookie Rankings and Positional Analysis

Heath and Jacob discuss the update to their positional rankings, particularly focusing on the wide receiver trio of Devonte Smith, Jalen Waddle, and Chris Olave. They analyze whether these players still possess top-tier upside in dynasty formats.

Key Points:

• Devonte Smith: Highly productive in college with exceptional per-route data. Potential to thrive in a run-heavy Patriots offense with a young quarterback.

  Heath [08:57]: “Devonte Smith is one of the most productive collegiate receivers... nothing has happened as a pro that would dissuade me from believing that he is who he is.”

• Jalen Waddle: Demonstrates explosive play capability; Heath is particularly bullish, citing Waddle's performance and potential to capitalize on regression from teammates like Tyreek Hill.

  Heath [08:57]: “Jalen Waddle just pops off the screen... I absolutely am fine betting on him that it could be coming sooner rather than later.”

• Chris Olave: Maintains high efficiency and excellent per-route performance, though his top 12 upside is viewed with skepticism.

  Heath [08:57]: “Chris Olave is exceptional as a player... very similar to Smith, but I get why people want to remain excited about him. He's probably the one I'm most dubious about turning into top 12.”

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3. Rookie Debates: Running Backs

A. Trevion Henderson vs. Trevion Hampton

Jacob Gibbs [15:20]: Sets the stage for the debate, emphasizing the context of full PPR leagues and the contrasting scenarios of Henderson and Hampton.

• Trevion Henderson:

  • Pros: High pass-catching potential in the Patriots' offense, opportunities to take over from Ramandre Stevenson.
  • Cons: Viewed as a "gadget player" by some, uncertain role due to the volatile nature of Josh McDaniels’ offense.

  Heath [16:53]: “Henderson could crush PPR leagues because of what he can do in a pass catcher if he lands in the right spot.”

• Trevion Hampton:

  • Pros: First-round draft capital suggests a more secure, feature-back role in Greg Roman’s scheme.
  • Cons: Concerns about Romantics' limited pass involvement could cap his upside.

  Heath [18:46]: “Hampton just feels so much safer if you want to swing for upside.”

Conclusion: Consensus leans towards taking Hampton over Henderson due to the security of his role, although Henderson presents significant upside in PPR formats.

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B. RJ Harvey vs. Quinn Judkins

Jacob Gibbs [24:57]: Initiates the debate by comparing Harvey’s explosive potential with Judkins’ volume-focused role in Cleveland.

• RJ Harvey:

  • Pros: High upside with advanced metrics indicating explosive play potential, favorable coaching schemes.
  • Cons: Ball security concerns, crowded backfield in Jacksonville.

  Heath [21:59]: “Harvey is going to play an expanded role that's similar to what they've done with Julian McLaughlin... if they design some screens to him, he might get more checkdowns.”

• Quinn Judkins:

  • Pros: Versatile in both rushing and receiving, potential workhorse role in Cleveland.
  • Cons: Concerns about efficiency, lack of elite receiving stats, potential for lower touchdown upside.

  Heath [26:15]: “If it's just a bunch of early down runs for 3.94 yards per carry, that's just not doing much for fantasy.”

Conclusion: Heath expresses reservations about Judkins’ efficiency despite his volume, while Harvey is viewed as a more immediate and high-upside option, albeit with some security concerns.

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4. Rookie Debates: Wide Receivers

A. Luther Burden vs. Matthew Golden

Jacob Gibbs [28:53]: Compares Burden’s high-risk, high-reward profile with Golden’s potential as a consistent target leader.

• Luther Burden:

  • Pros: Potential for significant upside if integrated into a dynamic offense like Chicago’s.
  • Cons: Perceived as a one-trick pony, possible limited target volume.

  Heath [31:45]: “If he comes out there and looks the part... it could get pretty exciting for fantasy.”

• Matthew Golden:

  • Pros: More diverse route tree, higher likelihood of becoming a target leader in Green Bay’s balanced offense.
  • Cons: Dependent on Green Bay’s offensive consistency and target distribution.

  Heath [28:53]: “Golden is somebody that can move around the formation, use in all different ways.”

Conclusion: Golden is considered a safer bet for consistent targets, while Burden offers more explosive potential but with higher risk.

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B. B. Tutin vs. Dylan Sampson

Jacob Gibbs [37:04]: Debates the unexpected rise of Basel Tutin in the rookie RB class against Dylan Sampson’s established versatility.

• Basel Tutin:

  • Pros: Impressive college statistics, high upside with role expectations in Jacksonville.
  • Cons: Ball security issues, crowded backfield, significant ADP discrepancy.

  Heath [38:12]: “He has a real chance that he does have a role right away.”

• Dylan Sampson:

  • Pros: More versatile in running schemes, better fit with Lucas Stefanski’s offensive philosophy.
  • Cons: Uncertainty in landing spot, possibly overshadowed by established team players.

  Heath [41:15]: “He could become the lead back and keep an offense on track while also creating explosive plays better than Judkins.”

Conclusion: Sampson is favored over Tutin due to better fit and versatility, although Tutin’s high ceiling keeps him relevant for certain fantasy strategies.

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5. Rookie Debates: Tight Ends

Harold Fannin vs. Terence Ferguson

Jacob Gibbs [51:18]: Compares Harold Fannin’s potential as a top dynasty tight end with Terence Ferguson’s role-driven upside.

• Harold Fannin:

  • Pros: High potential in a Sean McVeigh offense lacking depth in tight ends, substantial upside if he secures a primary role.
  • Cons: Dependence on teammates’ injuries, delayed value spike.

  Heath [54:40]: “If he hits, you're probably getting a top five dynasty tight end.”

• Terence Ferguson:

  • Pros: Athletic and smooth, could become a significant contributor in a dynamic passing offense.
  • Cons: Split targets with established players like Devonte Adams and Puka Williams, potentially limited ceiling.

  Heath [56:26]: “If they're making plays for him, but it’s really hard for fantasy.”

Conclusion: Fannin is viewed as a high-reward option with some waiting time, whereas Ferguson offers more immediate but potentially limited impact.

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6. Final Thoughts and Recommendations

Throughout the episode, Heath and Jacob emphasize the importance of understanding each rookie's role within their respective teams and the offensive schemes. They advocate for balancing high-upside picks with more secure options, especially in dynasty formats where long-term value is crucial.

Heath [56:32]: “Every time the round says three at the start of it and Harold Fannin's still available, I am just sprinting to make that pick because I think it's an absolute smash.”

Jacob [56:32]: Agrees on the potential value of Fannin, highlighting his strategic importance in dynasty leagues.

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7. Conclusion

The episode provides a comprehensive analysis of the 2025 rookie class, offering fantasy managers actionable insights into player selection strategies. By debating the merits and drawbacks of key rookies like Henderson vs. Hampton, Burden vs. Golden, and Fannin vs. Ferguson, Heath and Jacob equip listeners with the knowledge needed to make informed decisions for their fantasy teams.

Key Takeaway: Balancing upside potential with role security is essential in dynasty leagues. Understanding each rookie’s fit within their team’s offensive scheme can significantly impact their fantasy production and long-term value.

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Note: For detailed player analysis and rankings, listeners are encouraged to subscribe to the FFT newsletter and follow Heath Cummings on Twitter for ongoing updates and insights.

Transcript

[Heath Cummings]

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[Jacob Gibbs]

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[Heath Cummings]

Yeah, always great to be here. Thanks for having me. Heath newsletter has taken taken a bit of a back seat lately. I've been working on a lot of stuff. If you've been on Twitter at all, you see that I'm like really diving deep into the quarterback analyt and film and that's been really fun. If you don't know what I'm talking about, go to my Twitter for sure because you'll find literally any quarterback that you want to know about I think you'll probably find. And then I've also got some exciting beyond the box core news that's coming up soon and so I've been putting some pieces together in the background there. But as for the newsletter, been working on running back rush scheme. So looking at the incoming rookie class and seeing like how does Ash and Genti fit with Chip Kelly in that system? How does how my Josh McDaniels and Mike Rabel affects Trayvon Henderson, stuff like that. And then over the last couple of weeks I've been putting it was. It ended up being a three parter, three separate emails because we got a bunch of new coaches just looking at all the new coaches and how they might affect things. I actually had some really cool excerpts from that that I wanted to share just to get. I mean surely by now you guys know like sign up for FFT newsletter, Google FFT newsletter and find it if you don't know what we're talking about. But like what did I want to bring up? The okay, Liam Cohen and Josh Grizzard. I feel like nobody's talked about Josh Grizzard. And the more that I dug into this guy, I've watched like any press conference I can find. So he's the third straight new offensive quarter in Tampa Bay and it's hard to parse through this and like decide exactly what to a tribute to each guy. But like it sounded like he had a huge hand in like helping set everything up. They created like last year they created a spot for him past game coordinator, past game specialist which didn't even exist during the Dave Canales era. And then they, they hire Liam Cohen to be able to coordinate the hire Grizzard into this new spot. And they completely like reinvented the screen game there. And a lot of that, basically all of that credit I think goes to Cohen. And so people are rightfully excited about Jacksonville and this upcoming season. But like I was just diving into how much he might have affected things and how that might impact Tampa Bay going forward. There were honestly just a ton of new hires to get into. Another one the dynasty managers might be interested in is in Dallas. You probably know this Heath because you're a seasoned vet. I was just blown away digging into Schottenheimer's history of running backs who like kind of came out of nowhere and got a chance. And a lot of them were late round picks or you know, first or second year players. So we've got back to 2006, we've got Leon Washington with the jets just like fourth round pick, taking it over 5 foot 8, 192 pounds, taking over the lead back duties. Zach Stacy, everybody I think remembers those days finally in St. Louis taking over as around five pick and then the next year Trey Mason, round three pick kind of taking over at the end of the season, Chris Carson. The glorious Chris Carson days were under Brian Schottenheimer and Pete Carol in Seattle and then even like recently, Tony Pollard, Enrico Dowdle and so like, I'm pretty excited about what that might mean for J on Blue. So, yeah, it's, it's been fun digging into all this on the newsletter. Go check that out. If you, if you don't know what.

[Jacob Gibbs]

We'Re talking about there anything Jacob dives into, you're going to find deep dives. I was funny, I was on a podcast, I think it was Wednesday night with friend of the show, the Fantasy football mad scientist. And he, we were talking Chiefs and Broncos and I think he cited that Jacob Gibbs put something on Twitter about Bo Nicks and started explaining what it was and asked me if I'd seen it. And I said, you know, you could tell me that Jacob Gibbs said just about anything about just about any quarterback over the last two months on Twitter and I would believe, yeah, that was probably him. Because every time I open Twitter it's a new thread from Gibbs and it's all good stuff. You should definitely go take a look at it. I. I'm just going to ask you one more question before we get to the, the what we're talking about today. You've shown a lot of stuff with like catchable ball rate and off accurate throws and, and videos to show what happened. Do you have any idea how sticky that stuff is year over year? Like, I know homes numbers were particularly bad last year, mediocre at best. And in the past that's not been the case. So like year over year, do you think that stuff's sticky or is it just better at telling a story of what happened last year?

[Heath Cummings]

I'm not entirely sure I'm going to dig into that more. I'm almost completed this like getting all the quarterbacks accounted for and looking at all the different ways to compartmentalize like playing the position, breaking it down by accuracy at different ranges and everything. And then I do want to look historically, I'm pretty sure Fantasy Points data has their information dating back to 2021, but it might be 2022, so it won't be a, a big sample size.

[Jacob Gibbs]

Right.

[Heath Cummings]

That's unfortunately the problem. A lot of the times that I run into with this new data that I play with is like we only recently have it, so back testing it is kind of a fool's errand. But I'll do my best. And then the other thing that I'll bring up is I'm going to do a podcast with the Fantasy Points Data team and the, the people who do the charting for them that then results in this data that you see and get their opinion on, like, there's a lot that I want to talk about. Like, a lot of the plays that are charted as pressure or no pressure are extremely debatable. And this isn't their charting that I'm looking at. When it comes to the film, I believe that comes bff. And so it's like, how, how do you parse through all of that and just like try to try to find some answers and try to illuminate some things for people to get just a little bit more clarity and transparency with, like, what you're really looking at here. And at the end of the day, a lot of it is just going to be gray area, you know. But I think that we can do our best to like, lay this out, show people what it is, and then do our best to also dig deeper back into it, into history and see if it's been predictive or not and what that might mean for these players as we look forward.

[Jacob Gibbs]

So that's what he's been working on. And something else he worked on in the newsletter about a month ago was his version of the rookie rankings. And so today on today's show, we're going to have some very friendly rookie debates. We want to talk about some guys that Jacob and I are kind of split on a lot of times. Listen, this won't be I don't think anybody's going to plant too strong of a flag here because a lot of times we're talking about a situation where Jacob might have somebody second at running back and I have them third and we're swapped. So there's a lot of uncertainty, obviously, with rookies going into. But we will debate Henderson versus Hampton, Harvey versus Judkins, Burden versus Golden, and much, much more. We will start with three more questions, I guess, for Jacob Gibbs, and we'll be a little quicker on these. I was writing about, I updated the positional rankings this week at quarterback, running back, wide receiver, tight end in Dynasty. And I wrote about the trio of Devonte Smith and Jaylen Waddle and Chris Olavi. I think quite possibly all three of those guys rank as low in Dynasty as they have since they were drafted. For me, guys that we really believed in the talent, but one thing or another has kept them from producing elite fantasy production. Except for Waddle one year back in 2022. So my question to you about those three guys, Devonte Smith, Jalen Waddle, Chris Olave, do they still have top 12 upside?

[Heath Cummings]

I think that each of them does have it. It would be you're betting on an outlier Just based on the way their careers have gone, the percentage chance of them turning into a top 12 player is pretty low most of the time. Those types of players show that earlier in the career. And I think like you said, Waddle's the only one who's done it. The other guys have given us really encouraging signals and then obviously when you watch them, they're amazing. But it hasn't all come together. And you know, you can come up with contextual, circumstantial stuff to explain why not and convince yourself that it will or could, but most likely it won't. But for each of them, I think there's definitely a reason to be bullish. Devonte Smith, one of the most productive collegiate receivers we've ever seen in terms of raw production and all the underlying stuff that I like to look at the per route data and all that is just exceptional. And nothing has happened as a pro that would dissuade me from believing that that is who he is. It's just like he plays in such a run heavy offense and AJ Brown is also that guy and has been even more of an alpha when it comes to drawing targets and that's everywhere he's been A.J. brown. So like if circumstances change for him, I definitely think he could. Jalen Waddle, man, even last year I, I as I've been watching so much film digging into this quarterback, stuff like Waddle just pops off the screen like he looks so good and we've seen him do it. So I absolutely am fine betting on him and that that could be coming sooner rather than later. If I had to bet on one of these for this year, it's probably him if, you know, if Tyreek continues to regress and that's what it looked like happened last year with Tyreek and then Chris Alave. He is exceptional as a player. He's very similar to Smith. He didn't show the same type of target dominance, but his efficiency has always been through the roof as a, as a per route player. And so I get why people want to remain excited about him. He's probably the one that I would be the most dubious of ever turning into top 12 at this point of this group.

[Jacob Gibbs]

Well, and part of that's his situation, part of that's like there's legitimate concerns about his health with the concussions. And I think also like when you talk about Waddle versus Smith and who's more likely to do it this year, I think it's really like, are you considering the injury upside for one or for both? Because devonte Smith's pretty much been that guy if Dallas got her or AJ Brown are going and then when both of them are there, he is the most mid wide receiver three you've ever seen. And so like it's pretty easy for me to just say, well if one of those guys get hurt then devonte Smith's going to be an elite producer. And if they don't, then he's probably not Waddle. I don't understand at all because it wasn't just like Tyree Kill took a step back last year and Waddle had the worst year of his career and the offense changed. So I, so I, I don't really have any idea. I I rank them right now in Dynasty. Smith, Waddle, Olave. I agree with you on Olave being last question. Number two. Who scores the most fantasy or scores more fantasy points in the next three years? Tyler Warren or TJ Hawkinson?

[Heath Cummings]

That is an interesting question. I will just go with Hawkinson. I'll just bet on o' Connell. But I don't even know what his contract details are, do you?

[Jacob Gibbs]

I don't. What I thought was interesting is I was writing about Hawkinson today and the fact that like in the 2023 season before he tore his ACL, he was tied with Travis Kelsey for tight end 1.14.6 PPR fantasy points per game, averaged 8.6 targets per game in O' Connell's offense since he got there before the ACL. So yeah, I, I would go with Hawkinson as well. I think it's an interesting thought exercise because we see almost universally that Loveland and Warren are ranked ahead of Hawkinson, who's not really. He's still in his prime and I would expect he's going to be a top 12 tight end no matter where he plays. He might be top five if he's in Minnesota, but I do think it's interesting to think about if you were a contender and you have a pick and Warren's maybe their best available player on the clock, you might be able to trade that pick to somebody for Hawkinson plus and get a better player during your contending window.

[Heath Cummings]

For sure. I just looked and he's on under contract through 2027, but they do have an out after this year where they wouldn't take a ton of dead money.

[Jacob Gibbs]

So and, and like how much further he's recovered from that ACL probably determines whether that's appealing. If he's TJ Hawkinson, they're probably not trying to get out of that contract because they Seem to love him. Question number three, who is the best rookie or 2026 pick that you would trade for Derrick Henry if you were a true contender?

[Heath Cummings]

It's a good question. Would you trade Judkins for him? I think that's where I would start. Somewhere around there on the high end.

[Jacob Gibbs]

So you're thinking, and for you in a tight end premium league, that's probably somewhere around pick 110, 111, something like that.

[Heath Cummings]

Yeah.

[Jacob Gibbs]

And then 2026 first, if you're a true contender and you're adding Henry to that roster, that makes you more nervous because you don't know what that pick. But it's also a year away and you could have Judkins and Henry on the team this year and then not on that pick next year. Like that's. That one's more borderline.

[Heath Cummings]

Yeah, I would be pretty wary of making that type of a move, but I could see it. I could see you justifying it. I have a tough time. I always want to, like have my cake and eat it too. I have a really tough time being like, all right, I'm going in and contending like, and I'm selling the farm because I'm going to build this mega team. But like, often you do have to do that. You look around your league and it's like, okay, this team is like positioned to crush this year, you know, and this your team that you feel really good about is like relative to redraft teams, you know, and you want to keep those young pieces in place. But it's like you really might need Henry. So I guess I could get it, but I would be uncomfortable with it.

[Jacob Gibbs]

Let's take our first break and then we'll get into Omarion Hampton versus Trevion Henderson. The new McCrispy strip is here. Dip approved by ketchup Tangy barbecue Honey mustard. Honey mustard, Sprite McFlurry, Big Mac sauce, double dipped in buffalo and ranch. More ranch and creamy chili. McCrispy strip dip now at McDonald's. Ryan Reynolds here from Mint Mobile. I don't know if you knew this, but anyone can get the same Premium Wireless for $15 a month plan that I've been enjoying. It's not just for celebrities.

[Heath Cummings]

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[Jacob Gibbs]

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[Heath Cummings]

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[Jacob Gibbs]

This is one of the few debates Amarian Hampton versus Trevion Henderson that I've set up that one, I want to add a qualifier for and two, I think I, I actually am trying to argue against the draft capital. A lot of the times I'll be arguing for the draft capital. You kind of have to go back and forth on that. But the qualifier is this is for full PPR leagues and it may be that would change your answer, but I think they're really close in half ppr. I see in full PPR Hampton still going above Henderson and I don't fully understand that. My I'll start with Henderson because I feel like I am the road team since Hampton was a first round running back. I'll let you be the road team later. I like Tenderson more than I liked Hampton coming into the year. That coming out of the draft that made me a little bit unique. I think Matt Waldman had Henderson higher as well. I, I really felt like man, Henderson could crush PPR leagues because of what he can do in a pass catcher if he lands in the right spot. And I know people don't think of the New England Patriots as like this off awesome offense that you want to be a part of as a running back. The offensive line wasn't even that great, but it's Josh McDaniels and you got a young quarterback in Drake May and there's basically no wide receiver. One, I'm not entirely sure there's a wide receiver two on this roster, but I think there's an excellent opportunity to catch 60 passes as a rookie and thrive in exactly the type of role he was supposed to be in and probably as the year goes on take carries away from Ramandre Stevenson, who's just not that exciting to me. So for one year I'll take Henderson. For the career, I'll take Henderson. Tell me why I'm wrong.

[Heath Cummings]

I think that Henderson was below him from a prospect evaluation standpoint, especially for fantasy, because I think Hampton is almost definitely, when you get first round draft capital attached to him, going to like play that every down role. Whereas Henderson, it feels like a stretch that he can get there. I think that he can. We saw him do it early in his career at Ohio State, but already they're kind of talking about him as like a gadget player. Like I hate that. I hate the word gadget being attached to him. I think that was out of McDaniel's mouth today. And so I don't, I don't love that. I, the other thing is we, we didn't see Henderson do the elite receiving stuff that people attribute to him at any point. I think like from a statistical standpoint we never saw that he gets put in the same tier as some of these other running backs like Jameer Gibbs. That but like he just doesn't belong there if you look at his collegiate stats. So Josh McDaniels could help him get there. But there's another factor at play in that Drake May loves to scramble. Had like one of the highest scramble rates of any quarterback not named Jaden Daniels. I think he was next. And so that there's just, there's a lot of pieces with New England that makes it a very volatile projection. I'm very intrigued as I dug into the coaching stuff like McDaniels could be a great fit for him. I think from both a run scheme standpoint and, and then also the propensity to get the ball to the running backs in the passing game. But I'm very curious how that, how Drake May will affect that. Another area I'm really curious about is, is Drake May going to be used as a rusher on the goal line a lot? Cam Newton was I think quarterback 14 in his age 31 season in fantasy and six point per passing touchdown leagues and he threw eight touchdowns. And that was because he had I think the second most designed rush has been a quarterback in the NFL like more design rushes than he'd ever had in his career under Josh McDaniels. And so like are we going to see Drake May use that way because Meg wasn't used as a design rusher at all before. I think he might be muted Heath.

[Jacob Gibbs]

Yeah. And that's not exactly an apples to apples comparison. Obviously we're talking about Cam Newton after he lost the ability to throw a forward pass.

[Heath Cummings]

Yeah.

[Jacob Gibbs]

But was still the best goal line back in the NFL versus Drake May who I think could definitely have more rushing touchdowns than he did last year.

[Heath Cummings]

Yeah. I think he will. And so that's where it's like Henderson. I think the rushing touchdown upside might be capped and I don't know what to expect with the receiving. Whereas Hampton just feels so much, so much safer if you, if you want to swing for upside. I could see it because Anderson obviously has the speed and the potential receiving involvement as well.

[Jacob Gibbs]

And when you say that Hampton's going like his draft capital means he's almost certainly going to be a feature back. How long do you think it takes before that happens.

[Heath Cummings]

I think it happens this year. I'd be shocked if he's not like playing 60 or 70 of snaps by like week five. I just think Naji is toast. The last thing I was going to bring up is that Greg Roman has kind of a limited upside for his running backs because of the lack of involvement in the passing game specifically. And so like, I definitely think that there is an upside case to be made for taking Henderson over him and I'm fine with that. But it would definitely be him to for me if I'm using that kind of draft capital.

[Jacob Gibbs]

Yeah, I think it's, it's hard to overcome the rookie running back taken in the first round and what that has historically meant. I I, I don't and you did a good job of bringing it up. Like Greg Roman's offense is great for running as a team and it has been good for some running backs. But it is often a committee approach in that system and it's usually a committee committee approach that is splitting up rushes because there aren't that many targets. So I just haven't been as enamored with the landing spot for Hampton as a lot of people seem like they have. And maybe I'm a bit over my skis on Henderson as a pass catcher, but I also think I'm more concerned about Naji Harris holding on to his share of the touches for a little while longer than I am Ramondre Stevenson, because even when Harris has struggled with efficiency, he's at least a professional. He holds on to the football and does his job. Stevenson's really had some struggles in that area which could get the rook and I think Henderson might be better than him in pass protection, which could get the rookie on the field more a little bit earlier. But I think consensus definitely agrees with you on this one, taking Hampton over Henderson. Consensus was definitely with me before the draft. On this next one, RJ Harvey versus Quinn, Sean Judkins, and now it's swung completely. I've seen Harvey taken as the RB3 in this class, ahead of Henderson, ahead of Judkins, ahead of anybody else. I again, another guy that I wasn't super high on coming into the draft. I think everybody got very excited because even if you like Tarvey, you probably thought Sean Payton took him earlier than anybody. You thought anybody would. I I talked about this on FFT Dynasty a while back. Being picked 60th overall as a running back has historically guaranteed absolutely nothing for a rookie. There's been more rookies who did Nothing than scored 10 fantasy points per game being drafted in this range in the draft. Now his competition is very, very little. Do you think like I saw somebody the other day said RJ Harvey in Denver is going to be Pierre Thomas and alright, guess going to be Mark Ingram and somebody else. Like do you think that Harvey is the Alvin Camara and the Sean Payton offense or is it just dumb to make comparisons to Alvin Kamara?

[Heath Cummings]

Yeah, if I'm going to compare him to anyone, I think it would be Thomas. But honestly I think he's just his own player and this is a different offense and so I, I think we saw enough of Harvey at the collegiate level to feel pretty confident who he is. And I think basically he's going to play a. This isn't going to sound good, but I think he's going to play a really expanded role that's similar to what they've done with Julian McLaughlin and so like that might mean that SMA is in there for important reps. I'm really curious who's going to be the past protector. Yes, that that could ultimately limit his playing time to like more of like a 50 role in terms of snaps. But I mean Bucky Irving was able to get away with that last year with that type of a role through like elite game planning and scheming offensively and play designing and then elite talent. And I think that Harvey could be pretty similar to that in both regards and also really, really great offensive line play in Tampa Bay and that's kind of the case here in Denver as well. So I think the infrastructure is in place for people to feel extremely optimistic and I totally understand it. I'm in that camp as well. I loved Harvey's talent with what I saw in film and if they can expand on his receiving then like wow, it could get pretty exciting for fantasy. And that's what we've seen. I mean Jonte Williams had over 80 targets last year. That's what we've seen from Sean Payton every step along the way. Bo Nicks loves to check the ball down and I think so does, so does Payton. So it's gonna like if he's not on the, if they don't trust him to pass protect then maybe he's not on the field for those downs. But I do think if they might design some screens to him and then he might get some, some more checkdowns as well. And I think the rushing will be really, really good like probably top 10 rushing efficiency fed I guess going into.

[Jacob Gibbs]

This year I think one of the best maybe debate's the wrong word. Maybe the debate's the wrong word for what we're doing here, but one of the best debates we had in April when we were prepping for the draft was when you and Matt Waldman talked about Quinjon Judkins. And Waldman loved Judkins, called him the second best pure rusher in the class behind Ashton Genti. And you had a lot of questions about Judkins, as in his rushing efficiency, in what the advanced stats said. And that debate has gone on, I think, between film people and advanced stats. And even some people, some of the film film people don't love Judkins. I loved the landing spot in Cleveland because I do think that he's going to dominate early downs. What I think is really interesting is everybody, not everybody. Some people talk about Harvey as becoming his pass catching savant with Sean Payton. Quinton Judkins had more catches the last two years in college than RJ Harvey did playing with Travion Henderson. Like he was involved in the passing game as well. I'm. I'm thinking there will be a split between him and Sampson, and we'll talk about Sampson here in a little bit because I like him as well. But do you expect Judkins to be, like you mentioned Hampton, because of his draft capital, will be a workhorse running back. Do you think Judkins is a workhorse running back or are you more concerned about that than you are with Harvey?

[Heath Cummings]

I definitely think he'll be the workhorse there. I don't know how much, how much Sampson will factor in, to be honest. I just don't think he's a great fit. But we'll see. Judkins, my problem with him is I just don't. It's. I think he could get 300 touches and they could be like easily the least efficient touches of any running back that's getting over 200 touches this year. I'm worried about the offensive ecosystem there and I also like, worry about him, like being able to create a ton of yards on his own. That was, that was my concern with his analytical profile was like a lack of pass protection and receiving and then a lack of creating yards on his own after contact. But it's. I think it's a great fit with Stefanski here. When I did analytical comparisons for Jugkin's collegiate career, it was a bunch of guys who did not pan out at the NFL level. And then Nick Chubb, right. And so it's like, basically, if he's going to be good, like, based off of recent history like, that's kind of the career arc that we need. And then he gets, you know, he lands in the exact spot that Chubb succeeded in. So I, I think he'll get loaded up, but I just don't. I worry about touchdown upside in this offense and I worry about receiving. And so it's like, if it's just a bunch of early down runs for 3.94 yards per carry, like, that's just not doing much for fantasy.

[Jacob Gibbs]

And that will be interesting in Denver also, because the last few years, like Sean Payton, running backs have not scored touchdowns. Russell Wilson had the big passing touchdown season. Bo Nicks threw more touchdowns than we expected last year. And, and so I don't know that either one of these guys score a bunch of touchdowns. I think it's funny though, going back to Waldman. Like anybody who's followed him for a while knows he's a Cleveland guy, knows that one of his best calls several years ago was Nick Chubb. And so then you get Judkins in the same spot with Jacob, saying there was a statistical similarity there. And it is, it is kind of funny. But yeah, I think I, I expect Judkins to be similar to Harvey this year. And somebody in the chat brought up something that I've talked about regularly on this show. I don't. We haven't brought it up in this debate yet. So he says people fall in love with projections. But at the end of the day, isn't Harvey pretty much only for contenders due to age? Somebody else said most running backs are. But does it impact your view of those two guys at all that Harvey's gonna be 24 years old at the start of the season. Judkins won't turn 22 until October.

[Heath Cummings]

I definitely, yeah, I think Juckins is more of like a long term window. I don't know if he's going to give you much this year beyond just like a SOL running back 24 finish, something like that, where at the end of the year he's just churning out 12 points per game or whatever. The only places that I've landed Harvey, it's been hard to get him. People are really just clamoring to get their hands on Harvey at the back end of the first round, trading up to get him trained up in front of you. Like, the only places I've been able to get him are on teams where I feel a need to like supercharge the team where it's like, I think that this team could be really good if he is like, this year's Bucky Irving, you know and so it is, it is kind of like a shorter term window. I think that is kind of the right way to look at these two.

[Jacob Gibbs]

Dynasty Rookie debate number three we're moving to wide receiver and I'm, I put this one on here a little bit selfishly. It's Luther Burden versus Matthew golden because these two guys, including Abuka, like all three of them, I go back and forth and back and forth. I love the opportunity for golden because I don't think they have a wide receiver one. I think them taking him in round one signifies they think he could be that guy. I think that he, he has obviously with his speed, that big playability and Luther Burden. I've been all over the map. One basically it's either you're in love with him because he's running slot snaps in the summer in a Ben Johnson offense or he can only do one or two things as a wide receiver. He's going to be a flop. How do you con. Do you think that Golden's may be safer in terms of an early target projection and Burden has more long term upside?

[Heath Cummings]

Yeah, yeah. I would be pretty surprised if golden isn't somebody you can at least use as like a low end wide receiver. 3 this year I think there's a decent chance that he does lead them in targets. I think the, the most likely path to him being somebody that you can't use is if Green Bay just like again doesn't believe in the passing game and just has to revert back to like just all the running that they did last year. But I think there are so many reasons why it devolved like that last year and if they get even like a 50th percentile outcome, like it should be a more balanced offense. I think they have the pieces in place before historically has really liked to be a passing centric offense. And so that's my expectation is they'll at least be like neutral when it comes to passing and he has a good chance to be the target leader because I think he'll be out there especially by the midway point to the end of the season. He'll be out there for close to every down whereas like Jaden Reed is kind of relegated to just you know, three receiver sets. I think golden is somebody that can move around the formation use in all different ways whereas Luther Burden might be that Jaden Reed kind of role where he's only playing in three receiver sets. And even then like they have guys that they can use like if they're doing if they're wanting, if they're intent on getting Cole commit and Loveland on the field, then that might affect him some. So I guess I'm, I'm supposed to argue for Luther Burden here. It's, it's a very, very volatile range of outcomes. With Burden, I would say just about as much as any player that you're going to be taking in the first couple of rounds. And the top end of that range is that he could within two months be one of the most valuable perceived value players out of this rookie class. That wouldn't surprise me at all. A year ago, that's basically where he was in terms of people's perceived value. I think the talent was clear last year. Even though it was a dysfunctional situation there in Mizzou on occasion, the talent was still clear. Like, this guy can win in a variety of ways. I don't think he's just a gadget player like people have mentioned. You know, I think he's a stud, like Ben Johnson has called him. And I think that the team's, you know, investment in him signals that belief. And so if he comes out there and looks the part and Ben Johnson is the, what we think he is, the guy that completely revitalized Detroit's offense like that. Like, it basically happened overnight, where they ended that in year over year improvement, where they're like, now we're just this fantasy point print shop. We're creating more offensive plays than any team in football. I don't know if, like it will reach that level with Chicago, but like, if that, that exists, that upside exists. Whereas we pretty much kind of know what we have in Green Bay. And so that's, that's the case with Burden is like if he's there, if you're staring down burden at a, at a reasonable price, I think if you can afford to take the chance on him, it could absolutely be worth it.

[Jacob Gibbs]

So I've got a rebuild where I have the fifth pick, the 10th pick, and the 11th pick in the rookie draft coming up. Aether said it was going to start the first week of June. Now he said June 9, but that shouldn't be a surprise because he also thinks 11:30 is the afternoon. So June 9th probably is the first week of June still. Anyway, I, I have considered taking both of those guys because I, I don't really want to draft a bunch of running backs on a team that's at least a year away. But I've also thought I see burden fall to early round two in Super Flex quite regularly. I'VE seen it happen a couple of times with Matthew golden as well. I think if both those guys are available at pick 11, you can probably trade back to 202 or 203 and still get one of them. And I'd be okay with just not having to make that choice. Let somebody else make the choice for me. Last thing on these two guys. Do you think it's fair to say? I think a lot of people look at Golden's combine and think, well yeah, he was a first round pick because he was the fastest wide receiver running the 40 and he's a one trick pony. He's just going to be a big play guy. I think golden. We have more evidence at least to this point of golden having a more diverse route tree and diverse usage than Luther Burton.

[Heath Cummings]

Yeah, yeah. I think the reason he was around, I mean the, the 4010 probably had something to do with it, but I think the reason he was around one pick is you saw him come on at the end season and become a guy who can win all over the field and demand targets. He looks like Kyle Williams who people love so much. It's like that kind of winner as a route runner with just precision and footwork and timing and like if you pair that up with a quarterback who can throw with anticipation then like he could be somebody who's getting open and creating first downs like all the time. Like we saw with lad McConkey when he got paired up with Justin Herbert. He reminds me McConkey a little bit in the way that he moves. I think McConkey is more sudden with his start stop ability but golden is very, very smooth. And yeah, I think Jordan Love is that guy. I think he can throw with anticipation. He's obviously erratic at times but like if those two get on the same page, I think it's, it's different than Burden mostly was like the gadgety stuff and then he does win on the vertical plane but it's almost like exclusively slot fades and then like winning at the catch point or just burning people outright. There wasn't nearly as much like deep down the field post corner type of breaking off routes that we saw where it's like working at the, at the top of the route and then coming back in a way that golden did succeed. I think he could do it. He's immensely talented as a mover. Luther Burden. But we saw golden do it more.

[Jacob Gibbs]

And I think it's funny because like the, the obvious edge for Luther Burden, at least for me is Ben Johnson and maybe everything else about the situation. I feel better about Matthew Golden. I feel I'm hopeful for Caleb Williams but I feel better about Jordan Love as a pastor right now than I Caleb Williams. I don't think Jaden Reed or Romeo Dobbs or Christian Watson or Don Tavian Wicks matters to Matthew golden if he hits his peak. DJ Moore and Roma Dunes, they could still be a bit more of a problem for Luther Burden as he tries to become a starting wide receiver and I do think we see him probably in three wide receiver sets early on and like we likely hopefully see golden as more of a full time wide receiver. Let's take our second break real quick.

[Heath Cummings]

Yeah, Mad La Flor is the man like the the the point here being that like Ben Johnson is what might put Luther burn over people's heads over golden people's heads. Like I think that's recency bias and it's entirely possible that lefor is as good as him. I you know we can list off all the reasons why we're excited about Ben Johnson, but like LaFleur's been doing this for a long time. If you go watch the Jordan Love quarterback videos like throwing from a clean pocket throwing for his pressure, it's amazing how many plays were left on the field by the wide receiver group. I and that's because they're open all the time. LaFleur is scheming them open all the time.

[Jacob Gibbs]

Don't have any Wicks.

[Heath Cummings]

Yeah, Wicks, Reed, Dobbs. It was all of them last year. It really was. Like I think Dobbs and Reed are pretty good players but like no one was exempt. And I, I really do think that like Leflore is as good as it gets in terms of the route concepts and layering things in a way that allows people to become open and then create yards after the catch.

[Jacob Gibbs]

Okay, sorry about that false start Harry. We will talk about Bashal Tootin, Trey Harris, Jack Besh and more after this second break. Does it ever feel like you're a marketing professional just speaking into the void? Well, with LinkedIn ads you can know you're reaching the right decision makers. You can even target buyers by job title industry company seniority skills. Wait, did I say job title yet? Get started today and see how you can avoid the void and reach the right buyers with LinkedIn ads. We'll even give you a $100 credit on your next campaign. Get started at LinkedIn.com results. Terms and conditions apply. Hey there travelers. Kaley Cuoco here. Sorry to interrupt your music. Great artist BT Dubs, but wouldn't you rather be there to hear it live? With Priceline, you can get out of your dreams and into your dream concert. They've got millions of dollars travel deals to get you to that festival, gig, rave, sound bath or sonic experience you've been dreaming of. Download the Priceline app today and you can save up to 60% off hotels and up to 50% off flights. So don't just dream about that trip. Book it with Priceline.

[Heath Cummings]

Go to your happy price, Priceline.

[Jacob Gibbs]

Okay, so this next debate we're going to the the lower end guys. Maybe round two, maybe round three for a couple of these guys. Some of you may find one of these guys in round four. Probably just Dylan Sampson, but. But the first debate is B. Tutin versus Dylan Sampson. And I basically need to debate the entire world on Basel Tutin because he is the darling of the 2025 rookie running back class. And I'm just, I'll just say it right off the top and you can just help me figure this out. I don't understand why a day three running back with legitimate ball security concerns that already flashed over the summer, landing in an already crowded backfield with two running backs who were drafted higher and have flashed in the NFL is suddenly been anointed. The last time I looked at DLF ADP, Tutin was two spots behind Travis ETN and 10 spots ahead of Tank Bigsby. I don't get it at all.

[Heath Cummings]

Well, the reason is because you have fools like me Heath who have no sense of self preservation. And in years past we've just been like draft of on hn like you aren't even gonna be here tomorrow. Who cares? Like, it's all about upside. As I was talking about Luther Burden and saying he had the widest range of outcomes anyone he could draft in the top two rounds, I was like, well, actually it's by Shell Toot, I think. And that's, that's why is the upside is through the roof. I've been trying to do my best, not just pump ridiculous amounts of like, hope out there with the Tutin stuff because it's very easy to do. Everything is there. Like, the collegiate analytics are nuts. His avoided tackle rate is yards after the contact, all that stuff that is exciting. It gets people ramped up about. The upside is like better, slightly better than Bucky Irving's career stats. And his stats were really good. And then we see him like have this massive year and now he's with, you know, tunes with his coordinator. They were really good. Like, the only guy who has like Better stats from this class. If you look at that advanced stuff is basically ash and Jenty, but on at this at the same time, like, he had the highest stuffed rate by far. He. Which is like runs of zero or fewer yards. Like, he's creating negative plays to go with the explosives. The fumbles are an issue. So, like, easily you could see paths to a coaching staff being like, we can't trust this guy. And if that team already has two other running backs, then maybe he just goes away and he wasted around 2 pick. But at the same time, you brought up, you know, the draft capital for the other guys. 1. I would say I'm having a really tough time evaluating draft capital relative to this specific class because we have many gms and decision makers who have already been on the record for saying, well, we just kind of waited, you know, like, we knew that we could wait because we saw it as a tier group and we didn't want to draft at the top of that tier. I think that happened a lot. And so it's really hard to measure relative to other classes. The second thing is that this is just obvious. I feel like this regime didn't draft these running backs. You know, they didn't draft ETN or Bigsby. They did draft Tootin. Liam Cohen early in the off season said that, like, that's kind of a guy that he would like to have and then they go and get him in the draft. So I. I think I'm. I think as long as Tutin doesn't fumble it away, there's a real chance that he does have a role right away. I think the team had some kind of role in mind. They have. Jacksonville has so many needs and they took him.

[Jacob Gibbs]

But in round four, like most round four running backs don't have a role right away at all.

[Heath Cummings]

At the top of round four, one of the first picks on day three with a bunch of really good running backs still on the board.

[Jacob Gibbs]

That. That's. That that part is true. I'll transition away from the. From the Tuton questioning to go to Dylan Sampson, who I think both of us had ahead of Tuton before the NFL draft. I remember several Jacob Gibbs film cutups about Dylan Sampson. You love, loved him Drafted question.

[Heath Cummings]

I was confused. I was like, is this based off my rankings? And I had Samson too high because, like, I can't argue for him over T at this point. But I'm to hear no, I.

[Jacob Gibbs]

Well, I think the. The argument is that the draft capital is not different enough. The competition they will face for touches is not different enough to supersede the guy that we thought was better, the guy who led the ace sec. I should have almost said acc, but I think that was too led the sec, the real football conference in rushing yards and rushing touchdowns last year and that we all loved on film and statistically coming into the draft. If one of these guys was around two pick and the other one falls to round five, then obviously you got to make that distinction. If one of these guys goes to a place with an established starter, if Samson head and Tootin goes to a place where there's just the RJ Harvey role, then I would understand that as well. But I don't. And I love Judkins. I just argued for him. I think he's going to be a very good back in the NFL. I don't, I just don't necessarily agree that the rookie day two pick is necessarily more difficult to overcome than the, the day one and the day two pick that we're already have shown the ability to succeed in the NFL.

[Heath Cummings]

Yeah, I, I think that's all fair. So would you, Are you saying that you'd rather have Samson or like you would just rather arbitrage like trade the round two pick, pick up around two big next year and take Samson around?

[Jacob Gibbs]

I haven't, I have yet to consider Tutin in round two. So I'm talking about a round three pick only Tootin's never there so I don't actually get to make this decision. But yes, I have Samson ranked higher. I think it is way more likely that Tutin does not ever enter your starting lineup in fantasy than that he becomes the lead running back for Jacksonville.

[Heath Cummings]

That's fair. Yeah, I, I loved Samson. You're not going to get me to say anything bad about him. I, I, I just don't know what the fit is here. Stefanski is a mixed running scheme that uses, you know, a lot of shotgun and understander runs. Whereas like with Samson, I was really hoping he might land with a team that is leaning more heavily into the shotgun running because that's almost exclusively how he was used at the collegiate level. The other thing is I don't feel like he fits the scheme very well in terms of the specific types of runs that they like to use. It felt like truly just a, like we've got this guy this high on our board and this is just how we draft. This is our philosophy is like we're just taking the best available player kind of like they did with qb and I just don't know what to make.

[Jacob Gibbs]

Of that no, I, I can understand if, if it's a scheme thing. When you. Before the draft, I think you expected Judkins to get drafted before Sampson. So you may have had Judkins higher than your rankings, but if you were just evaluating the two rushers and how you felt about them based on film and stats, did you significantly like Judkins more than Samson or did you even have Samson ahead of Judkins?

[Heath Cummings]

I feel like Judkins was more versatile where like you could plug him into a lot of different types of offenses and he would help Samson. I think it would have to be a specific. It would like if he's with a decent offensive line where he can read and react. I think he could be really, really good and could be like a lead back and keep an offense on, on track while also creating explosive plays better than, than Judkins. But it was kind of specific to where he landed. And so to see the NFL not really value him that much and then him land as a backup to a team that has a guy that they took, I mean early they drafted Juggins ahead of Travion Henderson. That's just tough. I just don't. I haven't got him anywhere which sucks because I really, really liked him.

[Jacob Gibbs]

Right. No, I think like I expect honestly both of these teams to run two back systems. That's historically what both of these coaches have done. We had Nick Chubb and Hunt. We had Nick Chubb and Jerome Ford for a while. Like I think they'll have two backs getting eight to 10 touches minimum per game. Samson's probably still not that worthwhile. I just, I don't know there.

[Heath Cummings]

Right. I think it'll be Ford. Like if they get rid of Ford then maybe I could be talking to But I'm afraid he's just the better passing down skill set of the two.

[Jacob Gibbs]

The indications we. And. And this could turn as well like he's got a summer to change opinions. They were not very fond of Jerome Ford last year. They kind of went to him because they couldn't do anything else. But they really. I think they thought he danced too much and he'd make a. He'd have an 80 yard run and then if he's kind of a Ken Walker but much, much worse. And I think Tootin has the same thing more often than not. I think both these guys need an injury before they're going to have success. And Mr. Popinsky, one of our top commenter says it might take a shot on Jordan James before Samson. I've got Jordan James ahead of Tutin as well. So I'm okay with that as well. I almost put James, obviously you love the landing spot if he gets a chance. Let's go to number five in the debates and this is one. I think you actually have a tier separating these guys. Adam Azer, you're aligning yourself with Hazer because Adam Mazer said that he thought it was. He said, I would not be surprised if Trey Harris was the best rookie wide receiver this year. And I like the opportunity better for Besh and I think I like the skill set better for Besh. What is it about Trey Harris that you think he does really well? And do you think the Chargers have to make a big change in terms of pass volume for him to make a difference with lad McConkey already there?

[Heath Cummings]

I think what Trey Harris does really well is he crushes press coverage. If he, if you can get him in one on one situations. He is just a handful physically. He's extremely powerful when attacking on the vertical plane, coming back to the ball. And there are very few cornerbacks, defensive backs at all who are going to be able to contend with him there. I think he's just going to win those most of the time. I, I don't remember seeing him ever drop a catch that hit his hands. He won in contested catch situations all the time. And I do think he can create some separation. They used him at Ole Miss in a very limited way. So we don't know. You know, it's. There's no way in field confidence in how his route tree will translate to the pros. But he did win over and over and over. And like the, the analytical stuff is absolutely insane for Harris. And so that's the upside case is that all this underlying stuff data wise suggested he's really good and then you put on the film and it's like, wow, this guy is a monster. And if he gets to go play in LA with a great quarterback and lad McConkey being someone who really, really threatens opposing defenses, then you can see a path to him getting more one on one looks. I don't know if it's going to be a high target volume role. I think it will probably be something similar to what Josh Palmer saw last year. But I think that he could be a lot more efficient with those looks and potentially then get more looks because he's capitalizing on those. If you watch the Herbert film, it's kind of similar to Jordan Love except that he does have lad McConkey. But other than that, it's like, man, he's making just phenomenal plays and they're letting him down. Like he especially, especially in the improv game. Like he needs somebody else who can win and come back to the ball and make these plays and it was basically just McConkey. So I'm, I'm really excited for Harris there. I think he has much more upside than Besh, but it also wouldn't surprise me. Receivers who are almost exclusively vertical threats and are running really deep routes often are much cooler for real life than they are for fantasy. Like Alec Pierce has been a very good real life player for the Colts. Doesn't matter for fantasy and part of that's the QB play, but a big part of is it's just really hard to get a target shared north of even like 1518 in that role.

[Jacob Gibbs]

I, I think Besh's upside might be a little bit understated just because we have a lot of uncertainty about how they're going to use the weapons there in Las Vegas because they have a lot of guys that can do multiple things. Jacoby Myers is better in the slot, but we've seen him as a number one wide receiver. Brock Bowers is going to move all over the field and they're talking about doing the same thing with Besh, how he's going to play both outside and inside. I don't know that he has a predominant role in this offense. It does seem. It's. It's interesting because I, I think it's more likely that Besh in the next two years becomes the number one wide receiver for the Raiders, but maybe not the number one target earner because Bowers is there. But I also think it's more likely that The Raiders throw 100 more passes than the Chargers do over the next couple of years. And I just have a hard time in an offense that I expect to throw 500 times. Harris has to be the type of guy you were describing that goes downfield and makes big plays and turns into more of a best ball splash play on a week to week basis as opposed to someone that you actually like. I think we probably have three or four weeks in a row this year where he has a combined 10 targets.

[Heath Cummings]

Are you projecting the Raiders for significantly more pass volume this year than la?

[Jacob Gibbs]

I. I am, yes. I'm projecting them for significantly less pass volume than they had last year. I don't think they'll throw as much as they did last year. They drafted Ashton, Jim, they changed offensive coordinators, so. But I also don't think they're going to be Good. I think they're probably going to be playing for behind.

[Heath Cummings]

That's what I was wondering. Is it predicated on the defense mostly because I think they would like to run first probably under Chip Kelly and.

[Jacob Gibbs]

But even most run first offenses throw less than Greg Roman offenses.

[Heath Cummings]

Yeah.

[Jacob Gibbs]

Or throw more than Greg Roman offenses. So I, I don't, I don't think the Hampton pick signifies to me that anything's going to change with Greg Roman's approach. And so if that's the case and there's 500 rush attempts it's. It gets difficult the math with lad McConkey likely being a 27, 28 target share guy.

[Heath Cummings]

I think you're probably right. I think if you watch the way that their season unfolded last year the Chargers really wanted to be that team. But the run game was, was awful.

[Jacob Gibbs]

Right.

[Heath Cummings]

People remember some of the big Dobbins runs but like down to down the success rate of that offense was really bad. I think they're in the bottom like six or seven overall rushing success rate on the year and so they kind of had to pass more. But I think if Hampton changes that then that's probably, we're probably getting what we thought we were getting going into last year.

[Jacob Gibbs]

Yeah. 100 agree last debate. This one is going to hurt Jacob because I know that he loves Harold Fannin just like I love Harold Fannin. But he has to argue against Harold Fannin because he gets the Terence Ferguson side of the argument. I'll let you start this one.

[Heath Cummings]

This one's really tough because I liked Fanon Moore going into the process. Even though I did like Ferguson a lot, I loved Fanon and the more that I've dug into a new coach in Cleveland. Do you have his name off the top?

[Jacob Gibbs]

I don't. My question to you about him as you look up his name because I, I. There are certain head coaches that cycle through through offensive coordinators that I mostly don't think matters because I think the head coach has more to do with the offensive philosophy than the coordinator does. And that's kind of like that could be wrong about Cleveland this year. Stefanski's kind of gone back and forth with play calling duties but even when he's not had them a lot of times it still feels like a Stefanski offense to me with a bunch of tight ends on the field and a bunch of targets going to those tight ends. But if this new coach you're going to give us his name in just a moment because I've forgotten it. If he changes that then that will hurt some of my argument for fan.

[Heath Cummings]

Well, I'm again arguing against myself. I actually think Tommy Reese is the new coach will kind of accentuate what Stefanski likes to do. If you look at like collegiate data for tight ends that have been drafted over the last like five or ten years, you will notice, wow, I'm blanking on his name. Notre Dame Michael Mayer. Michael Mayer's name at like the top of a lot of those lists, ahead of some of the best young tight ends. And it's like weird because he hasn't shown that as a talent necessarily at the NFL level and I think a lot of it has. The more that I dug into the offenses for Tommy Reese, I think he was the coach of Notre Dame. I think a lot of it has to do with him really liking to feature that position. And if you've heard, if you paid attention to them, talk about Harold Fannin as like the queen piece for this offense so they can move around all over the place, create mismatches. I do think that it's going to be really fun to watch him and Nujoku together this year and then down the line he's probably the heir apparent for Ninjoku and might be a really important part of the offense for Ferguson. I think the, the reason you might take a bet on him over Fanon is it's probably more likely that he turns into something that's a huge spike in perceived value in year one. Even if Fannon were to be that queen piece and get on the field, what does it really result in? Like the best case is Isaiah likely even in an awesome offense and having established himself in the league for years as a good player, likely is still intermittently relevant for fantasy. Often not. Whereas Ferguson could establish himself as the tight end one for a Sean McVeigh offense that is lacking in targets. Like I think Devonte and Puka will take a massive share but a lot of targets are open from the past years and I think that he could get some of those catch and run targets where the defense is just like not worried about him because they've got to worry about the other pieces. And he's good when he gets that build up speed. Like he's really athletic and smooth. I think he could make some plays and quickly establish himself as the Titan 3 in this class and somebody that people are pretty excited for. So that's, that's why I would bet on him is I liked his film, I liked his analytics and obviously the landing spot is just really fun and exciting.

[Jacob Gibbs]

Yeah, I don't dislike him. And if I err when it comes to offensive coordinators and coaches, it's in putting too much faith in what they have or haven't done in the past. I'll just admit that I worry a little bit for Ferguson about how concentrated McVeigh's offense has traditionally been and the fact that he has Pukinakua and 10 target per game Devonte Adams and Kyron Williams who always gets 300 carries and I just don't know. I think there could be a couple of spike weeks for Ferguson. What I would say as far as the the path for Fanon's value to spike as a rookie is that David Ajoku missed six games last year. Dave and the Joker's only played 16 games twice in the last six years. If there's a three or four game absence for Najoku and Fanon pops off and then Najoku's a free agent after this year. People are going to get way too excited about Harold Fannin going into his second season. I'm gonna, I'm gonna love it because I'm gonna have a bunch of them already. But I just listen, I gushed about Harold Bannon and Jacob did too all during the pre draft process. Almost we had it was just a couple of days ago had somebody smitty on the show talking about how he almost had a triple crown in college leading the position in all receiving categories. Not the position, all players including wide receivers while playing tight end. And then he goes to maybe the best offense right now or one of the top two or three offenses right now for tight end production. You do have to be patient with Fanon. That's why he falls a little bit. But every time the round says three at the start of it and Harold Fannin's still available. I am just sprinting to make that pick because I I think it's an absolute smash and if he hits you're probably getting a top five dynasty tight end.

[Heath Cummings]

Yeah, I I love it. I've landed a ton of them. I get him in round three and tied in premium leagues and that's just crazy to me.

[Jacob Gibbs]

Jacob, awesome, awesome stuff as always. Thank you to Harry for making everything work like it's supposed to. I hope we get Jacob back very soon, but I will talk to you next Tuesday. Thanks to everybody who was active in the chat. We'll talk to you next Tuesday. Paramount Podcasts.