Running Backs Preview Part 1: Sleepers, Breakouts, Strategies and More (08/05 Fantasy Football Podcast)

Summary

Fantasy Football Today: Running Backs Preview Part 1 – Sleepers, Breakouts, Strategies and More (08/05 Fantasy Football Podcast)
Released on August 5, 2025

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Introduction to Running Back Strategy

At the outset of the episode, host Adam Azer sets the stage by reflecting on the previous year's success with running backs, expressing skepticism about its repeat performance. He states, “[...] last year was absolutely sensational. But everybody's a year older now and that's one of the themes as we look at the Running back position this year” (02:12).

Player Rankings and Average Draft Positions (ADPs)

The discussion swiftly moves to player evaluations and ADPs. Adam highlights the veterans in the running back pool, mentioning key players like Devon HN (average draft position around 12th), Derrick Henry, James Conner, and Christian McCaffrey, all ranging from 29 to 31 years old. Heath Cummings adds, “I have Devon HN ranked as a top five pick” (15:14), emphasizing his value despite his age.

Jamie Eisenberg introduces his strategy centered around the "hero RB" approach, advocating for selecting a running back within the first two to three rounds to secure top-tier talent before the value diminishes in later rounds. He explains, “I like to get my receivers early and then, you know, with one running back and then sort of stock up on those other guys” (04:50).

Impact of Age on Running Backs

The aging roster of running backs is a significant concern. Hosts discuss how players like James Conner (30), Derrick Henry (31), and Alvin Kamara (30) might face decline due to their age. Heath Cummings comments, “Father Time's still undefeated” (51:44), referencing the inevitable impact of aging on performance.

Rookie Running Back Class

A strong rookie class is a beacon of hope amidst aging veterans. Jamie Eisenberg points out, “there is going to be stretches of the season where this class is dominant” (26:36). The rookies such as R.J. Harvey, Travion Henderson, and Caleb Johnson are highlighted as potential game-changers if they secure starting roles early in the season.

Draft Strategy Based on League Formats

The strategy varies significantly based on league formats—non-PPR, half PPR, and full PPR:

• Non-PPR Leagues: Emphasis is placed on running backs who are workhorses, tending to favor those who are heavily involved in the rushing game. Jamie emphasizes the importance of securing reliable running backs earlier in drafts: “In non PPR, you look for running backs certainly earlier rather than later” (46:14).

• Half PPR and Full PPR Leagues: There’s a balanced approach between running backs and wide receivers. Heath notes, “In a two receiver league you should draft running backs earlier. In a three receiver league you should draft more wide receivers earlier” (50:31).

Auction Strategies and Budget Allocation

In auction drafts, allocating budget effectively is crucial. Heath outlines his spending strategy: “I've got between 28 and 31 for Bijan HN” (51:04), indicating a significant investment in top-tier running backs. Jamie, however, prefers to allocate funds towards high-potential rookies, leaving marquee players to other managers.

Sleepers and Breakout Candidates

Identifying sleepers and breakout candidates can provide a competitive edge:

• Jamie Eisenberg’s Sleepers: Jaden Blue and Tajie Spears are highlighted as undervalued players with breakout potential, especially in flexible offensive systems.

• Heath Cummings’ Breakouts: Travion Henderson is favored as a breakout candidate, with expectations of high performance due to his role in the Patriots’ offense. Heath states, “He will break out in year one” (60:07).

Adam Azer introduces his own sleeper picks, including Isaiah Pacheco and J.K. Dobbins, arguing for their potential based on team dynamics and offensive line improvements.

Potential Busts

Hosts also caution against potential busts in the running back pool:

• Jamie Eisenberg on Saquon Barkley: Despite his talent, Jamie expresses concerns about Barkley’s efficiency and workload sustainability, labeling him as a potential bust if he doesn’t manage his touches effectively: “He’s just not somebody that I'm drafting in the first half of round one” (56:18).

• Heath Cummings on James Cook: James Cook’s inconsistent usage and injury history make him a risky pick, especially in later rounds where securing a reliable RB might be more challenging. Heath advises, “I won't take him till round four” (68:09).

Injury and Status Updates

Injuries and player statuses are pivotal in shaping draft strategies:

• Devon HN: Despite being a high draft pick, HN faces a shoulder injury that could impact his availability early in the season. Jamie comments, “If you're drafting Garendo, you're drafting him for the potential 'what if'” (30:08).

• Caleb Johnson and Travion Henderson: Heath notes the importance of monitoring training camp developments before committing to these rookies, as injuries or role shifts could significantly alter their value.

Conclusion and Preview

The episode wraps up with a brief overview of upcoming strategies to be discussed in Part 2, where detailed player analyses and ADPs will be examined. Adam Azer teases deeper dives into breakout candidates, auction strategies, and format-specific advice, encouraging listeners to stay tuned for comprehensive guidance to dominate their fantasy leagues.

Notable Quotes:

• Jamie Eisenberg: “I like to get my receivers early and then, you know, with one running back and then sort of stock up on those other guys” (04:50).

• Heath Cummings: “Father Time's still undefeated” (51:44).

• Jamie Eisenberg: “There is going to be stretches of the season where this class is dominant” (26:36).

• Heath Cummings: “He will break out in year one” (60:07).

• Jamie Eisenberg: “He’s just not somebody that I'm drafting in the first half of round one” (56:18).

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This detailed preview offers fantasy football managers valuable insights into navigating the running back landscape for the 2025 season, emphasizing strategic drafting, recognizing potential sleepers, and avoiding common pitfalls.

Transcript

[Adam Azer]

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[Heath Cummings]

You all know I've been running an Airbnb for a while now, and it's been a great way to make use of my extra space and especially when I'm traveling. And I've got some great trips coming up. First, I'm heading to Pinehurst, North Carolina for an annual golf trip with the crew. Always a blast. Then I'm swinging down to my old stomping grounds in Gainesville, Florida to catch a Gators game and slide into my favorite Mexican spot, La Tienda, for some steak tacos. What I love is that with the Airbnb co host network, I don't have to think twice about what's happening back home. I found a local pro who handles everything, creating the listing, managing bookings, messaging guests, even being there in person if anything comes up. I get to enjoy the trip, be in the moment and know everything's running smoothly. So whether you already host like I do or you've got a space just sitting empty while you're away, this is a total game changer. Find a co [e-mail] host this is fantasy Football Today from CBS Sports. What a play.

[Jamie Eisenberg]

Can you believe this?

[Heath Cummings]

No, I can't. It's time to dominate your fantasy league. Off to the races and he stays at his feet.

[Jamie Eisenberg]

This is gonna go the distance.

[Heath Cummings]

Now here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie and Heath.

[Adam Azer]

Oh, what a year it was for running backs in 2024. Can we repeat that success? I'm gonna go out on a limb and say probably not. You know, especially run 13 through 24 in average draft position. Usually usually kind of a wasteland or at least a disappointing range in terms of production. Last year was absolutely sensational. But everybody's a year older now and that's one of the themes as we look at the Running back position this year. Welcome Everybody. This is RB Preview Part 1 on Fantasy Football Today presented by BetMGM, the sportsbook. Born in Vegas, we've got a great rookie class combined with James Connor, who's 30, Derrick Henry, who's 31, Aaron Jones, who's 30, Joe Mixon's 29, Alvin Camara is 30, Christian McCaffrey's 29. We'll see how much it matters. Good morning guys. How you feeling about running back this year?

[Jamie Eisenberg]

Heath?

[Heath Cummings]

Fantastic.

[Adam Azer]

Good. Very to the point. Jb, how about you?

[Jamie Eisenberg]

Doubly fantastic. Okay.

[Adam Azer]

I hope it's not a trap.

[Heath Cummings]

You get like 17 pre scripted questions that I'm trying to answer with different names and different ideas. So I can't, I don't have any other words. I've already, I've already got my words ready.

[Adam Azer]

Good. Well, I know you're feeling fantastic about Draft A Thon because we are over 120,000 on draft a Thon and I'll tell you about some of the items that you can bid on a little bit later in the show. But let's get into the running backs preview here. So part one is going to be more of an overall strategy sesh and then part two will really break down the players and the ADPs. So Jamie, what's your overall running back strategy?

[Jamie Eisenberg]

Same that's been for the last several years. Really, you know, find that the best approach for me and you know, I tell anybody who asks is hero rb. I think just taking one in the first two or three rounds is the best approach. And then you get such great value. Especially this year, you know, on, as you said, the, the running back class has, the rookie running back class has sort of reshuffled a lot of things, you know, where you're either going to get, you know, potentially a high end rookie, you know, at a good price. RJ Harvey, Caleb Johnson, maybe Travion Henderson, some other guys, which I really like. But that's a little bit later. But also it's pushed around some, some players that I think can also give you an opportunity to take some shots on an RB2, three or four of those guys. So if you like the receivers and I think the receivers, the high end receiver talent dries up a little bit quicker than the running back talent. So I like to get my receivers early and then, you know, with one running back and then sort of stock up on those other guys.

[Adam Azer]

And Heath, how about you, what's your running back strategy?

[Heath Cummings]

I like the hero RB approach. The problem for me has been that I Also like the running backs in round three more than I do the wide receivers. And so if I take a running back in round one, and that's for me more determined by how the draft goes and not like forcing Guy. I, I've moved Chase and Lamb up to basically 101 and 103. So I'd like to take one of those two guys early on. But I'm not, I don't feel good about necessarily putting Nico or Puka or Jefferson with the hamstring right now ahead of all of the running backs in round one. So if I take one in round one, then I, I sometimes end up with two in the first three rounds and I'm okay with that.

[Adam Azer]

You say all of the running backs in round one, who are you exactly referring to?

[Heath Cummings]

So for me it's Bijan Achan, Barkley, Gen T Gibbs.

[Adam Azer]

And HN is someone that on fantasy pros is ADP is 12th.

[Heath Cummings]

Yep.

[Adam Azer]

And on football, guys, let's see. HN's ADP I think might be a little bit lower than that. Yeah, it's 14. So that's a really, that's a fun one because you could get, you might be able to get HN in the second round. In every single one of our drafts that we've done, our mock drafts, he's a first round pick, sometimes the top five pick. So we really like Devon HN. He averaged almost 23 fantasy points per game in full PPR when Tua was healthy. A lot of catches, but you know, he's, he's a second, he's borderline second round pick.

[Heath Cummings]

That wasn't completely out of nowhere. He averaged over 20 fantasy points per game in his nine healthy games as a rookie.

[Adam Azer]

Yeah, he's just been so good. The whole offense was dragged down when TUA was out. We're hoping they'll be a little bit more competent this year if TUA misses time. But we like HN in the first round. ADP has him in the early second round. So if, if he's there, you know, if he and Derrick Henry are there and you're picking late and you really like one of those guys, maybe, maybe you go wide receiver with your first pick and just hope that Henry and HN one of them is available to you in the second round. Yeah. So you have no problem taking two running backs with your first three picks. Jamie, what's your take on when to get that second running back?

[Jamie Eisenberg]

I will say format matters because if it is a two running back, two receiver league, I think hero RB does Not make as much sense in a three receiver league. I shouldn't say it doesn't make much sense, but it's easier to get away with going running back, running back in a two receiver league than it is to do it in a three receiver league because just again, the receiver talent I think thins out a little bit, you know, when you're trying to fill that spot. So I'm sorry, what was the question?

[Adam Azer]

Yeah, when do you want to take your second running back? Are you okay doing it with your first two picks for two of your first three? What do you think?

[Jamie Eisenberg]

So, yeah, I think the, you never want to pigeonhole yourself, you know, so I'll sort of maybe sound a little hypocritical here. Like I don't always want to just go in. I'm only doing hero RB and I'm, I'm, you know, stuck doing it because to Heath's point, I don't really like the running back value in round three the way that I have it ranked. The way that we see it fall sometimes, especially early round three, I think that might have been what you're alluding to, Heath, by pushing the receivers up in the early part of your, your rankings because when you get to that 2, 3 turn, you'll still see potentially Bucky Irving, Kyron Williams, maybe Jonathan Taylor, maybe Josh, you know, somebody that Chase Brown, you know, fall into the 25 through 28 range. So, you know, I think that's just, you know, pretty good value to find one of those type of running backs, depending how you feel about Williams. The other two guys I think seen still seem to go, but now we're seeing an injured Ken Walker in round three, James Cook in his contract situation in round three. I have Omari and Hampton sort of at the three, four turn, but that's at the back end. Breeze hall is going to be in that range for some people. He's around four pick for me. So I don't really love those, those caliber of running backs that early in some cases. So I think if, if you find yourself taking Robinson or Barkley or Gibbs or any of those guys in round one and you don't love really the receivers, I think after Drake, London, so Higgins, McConkey, Tyreek, the tight ends, depending on falls, like why not just take running back, running back and then just sort of hope your receiving core isn't, you know, somewhat so decimated that you're not having potentially a top 12 guy depending on how it falls for you. So again, don't pigeonhole yourself, but for me, ideally it would be starting in that round 5, 6 range, you know, so go running back. Because I'm not usually a quarterback or tight end early guy, unless it just falls the right way. But it would be most likely taking a running back in the first two or three rounds and then looking at it again in round five around six, depending on who's on the board. So Harvey, Swift, Henderson, those type of guys is a lot of where I look in that range of number two running backs.

[Adam Azer]

Okay. And there's a range of players. I'm just going to read 20 or I guess, yeah, 20, 20 to 30 in ADP on fantasy pros, PPR. ADP starts with Jonathan Taylor, Drake. And I won't even include the quarterbacks as we do have Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen and Jaden Daniels in there.

[Jamie Eisenberg]

I mean, you should. They're going to factor in.

[Adam Azer]

Yeah, okay, I'll read them all. What's I, I, it's like I'm not even going to read the quarterbacks. But here, here are the quarterbacks. Dre, Jonathan Taylor, Drake, London, Bucky Irving, Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, Kyron Williams, Lad McConkey, Trey McBride, Chase Brown, Tyreek Hill, Jaden Daniels, T. Higgins. I think for a lot of us, if we come away with two of those three players, not including the quarterback, we're probably not taking the quarterbacks there. We're going to feel pretty happy, whether it's Bucky Irving and T. Higgins or it's Drake, London and Chase Brown, or it's Kyron Williams and Tyree Kill or something like that. Kind of feel me, guys, we agree there, like, those are good options. If you're drafting, if you have an early pick in the first round, first half of it, you're probably going to feel pretty good about your second and third round picks based on those names.

[Heath Cummings]

Yeah, I mean, I always just take Kevin Williams there, but.

[Adam Azer]

And I always take Chase Brown. If I took a running back in the first round or in the second round and Chase Brown is there in the third round, it's almost automatic to me. I'm just clicking it. And that's where he's going. He's going 27th. And on football, guys, Chase Brown's going 26th. So you do have to wonder, you do have to ask yourself, am I going to take Jamar Chase and Chase Brown? If that's. If you like him, Jamie, is there a guy for you that's just an automatic select at the around the 2, 3 turn at running back.

[Jamie Eisenberg]

At running back. I mean, Chase Brown for sure, it's hard to, it's hard to pass on that. And even if you take Jamar Chase, like, I don't think that's an issue. I think taking Jamar Chase and T. Higgins might not be the best strategy. But taking the, the receiver and the running back for Cincinnati is, is not bad at all. Tyree Kill is, is another one. I know, not running back, but not really anybody. I mean, Bucky Irving is the same to me as, as Chase Brown. He just doesn't fall as far. I don't know why people are valuing Chase Brown differently than Bucky Irving so much. I think they're, you know, again, different players, clearly how they get their job done. But like day, day two, day three running backs, you know, guys that have some, you know, play questions about will they hold up and keep the job for as long as they potentially will and competition for target there for touches, etc, to me it's just they're very similar in terms of how they're going to get there. Yeah.

[Adam Azer]

And we have a question in the chat from Sean Chase Brown, Josh Jacobs or Jonathan Taylor. I didn't mean to imply that I'm taking Chase Brown over those guys, but Jacobs and Taylor are probably not going to make it to the third round. Whereas Chase Brown, his ADP is currently in the third round. I might want to take him over Jonathan Taylor at bbr. I definitely go in Jacobs one. How do you guys rank those three? Chase Brown, Josh Jacobs, Jonathan Taylor.

[Jamie Eisenberg]

Jacobs, Brown, Taylor. But they're all back to back to back.

[Heath Cummings]

Jacobs, Taylor, Brown. They're almost back to back.

[Adam Azer]

Okay, so a fun range of running backs in round two and hopefully leaking into round three. So that's kind of how you look at it. If you have an early first round pick and you're. And you're structuring your team at running back Heath if you have a late first round pick. We alluded to it a little bit, but you have to think about what's coming around in the second round. Right. You know, so picks 13 through 16 or 17 and we've got a Chan Nico, Brian Thomas Jr. Josh Jacobs, AJ Brown, Brock Bowers in this mix. So if you're picking 10th ish, do you have a preference if you want to walk out of there with a running back and a wide receiver with your first two picks, Is there a way to go in the first round?

[Heath Cummings]

I'm taking a Chan and one of the pass catchers.

[Jamie Eisenberg]

Okay.

[Adam Azer]

If HN's off the board, I guess my question is, do you think you're going to have a better wide receiver available to you in round two or a better running back available in round.

[Heath Cummings]

Two, or it just really depends on who the first 10 guys that were taken. Like, I think there's a pretty good chance when you're talking about pick 14 or 15. It also depends on how you feel about AJ Brown, another wide receiver who currently has a hamstringer injury. I'm a little higher on him than consensus and he's often the last of those wide receivers there at pick 14 or 15. But I think if you're picking in the last three picks and you're thinking HN might fall to my next pick, well, do you have a tier break between Brian Thomas, Nico Collins, Pukinakua, A.J. brown, whichever of those four guys are left? Because generally one of those four guys is left at 15. I. If you don't really have a preference or if the guy you like best usually goes last like AJ Brown, then I think you definitely take hm.

[Jamie Eisenberg]

It's just, it's so easy to see how the draft board is falling at that point, you know, because to his point, like, if I. I know, like, I think for me, I have Nico and Brian Thomas ranked a little bit ahead of where consensus is. For example, I think we're all, you know, whether it's Heath at 2 or me at 5, HN's ahead of consensus for us too. So those are 2. And we're probably ahead on McCaffrey as well at this point. So you can sort of see I haven't seen a draft yet and I've probably done 25 already. Best ball and redraft. I haven't seen a draft yet where one of McCaffrey, Achan Genti have not been there. I'll throw Henry in there too. 10 through 15 in some capacity.

[Heath Cummings]

And just looking at CBS adv, like Brian Thomas is 15th right now, A.J. brown 17th.

[Jamie Eisenberg]

Right. And so then it's the, the receivers, you know, so if you want to go receiver, running back, like I haven't seen any anywhere without question. And again, it depends how you feel on these guys like Nico, Brian Thomas, in some cases, Amara St. Brown, A.J. brown and Drake London not being available, you know, and that's assuming Puka's gone, you know, so you can easily go like I again, you know, best ball draft. If you want to throw it out, fine. But the first rounds are eerily similar, you would expect. So I did a draft last night where I had the 12th pick and I took Brian Thomas and Genti Brian Thomas and Genti.

[Adam Azer]

Okay. Yeah. And that's great. And it seems like Brian Thomas Jr. And Nico Collins, based on multiple websites, average draft position are wide receivers that are more likely to be available to you, you know, kind of in the 15ish range. So if you're worried about not getting one of those elite running backs, maybe take one in round one at 10th ish overall and then maybe you like the wide receivers better. But I think what you need to do, what you need to do at home is figure out, you know, all right, here are the wide receiver rankings, here are the running back rankings. And then also figure out, how does Brock Bowers factor into this for you? But I want to have, I want to come away with my first two picks. This is if you have kind of a later pick with one of my top, you know, could be seven running backs. That would be Robinson, Gibbs, McCaffrey, Barkley, Achan, Genty, Derrick Henry.

[Heath Cummings]

I have Kyren seventh, but yeah, I know.

[Adam Azer]

Yeah, yeah. I was looking at consensus and I didn't even go in order because it's consensus. We have HN2 in consensus because you love, everybody loves him. Everybody's got him in the top four, but you have him second. And then maybe you want to get one of the top seven or eight wide receivers. Chase Lamb, Jefferson, Neighbors, Puka, Collins, Thomas, AJ Brown. That's 14 or 15 picks if you include AJ Brown. That's without any quarterbacks, that's without Brock Bowers. So figure out at what you know, I want to get one of the top blank running backs and one of the top blank wide receivers. Or obviously you could always go receiver, receiver. You could always go running back, running back. Do what makes you feel comfortable. There's no set in stone winning strategy.

[Jamie Eisenberg]

In fact, I think there's another. You want to take a break. But I, I think the, the one thing when you're picking at the end of the round one, you really have to think. And you go receiver, receiver, you really have to think, how comfortable am I with the two running backs if you're going to go running backs on your next turn or you know, again, how you build out your strategy, like, do you really like to whatever degree they may fall? Chiron could be there, but I doubt it. But let's just say Kyron is there, James Cook is there, Ken Walker's there.

[Adam Azer]

James Cook is not. James Cook's ADP's risen enough where I don't feel comfortable putting him. It's around three.

[Jamie Eisenberg]

I think it's about to plummet okay.

[Adam Azer]

Okay, that is true. But as we do this right now he is holding in. As we do this right now it's about 30, 31. So that was always kind of a fallback for me. Jamie, I completely agree with you. If I went wide receiver, wide receiver, man, I love taking James Cook late round three. As of right now, he's not getting there. But you are correct, if he continues to hold in the ADP will fall. But give me some of more names. So you got Hampton there, you got Breeze Hall.

[Jamie Eisenberg]

Yeah, I was gonna say it's, it's from, from the top to the bottom I think of the, of the group. Kyron James Cook, Ken Walker, Amari and Hampton Breece Hall. Alvin Camara. I think that's probably where it ends.

[Heath Cummings]

Maybe Chuba Juba is the other one who could be included.

[Jamie Eisenberg]

Yeah, but it's also, I mean forget about included. You may have to reach, you know. So again, you know, you're not getting those guys back to you at the, at the 56 turn. So it's. How comfortable are you with that group of guys now again, we've, we've talked about this in some cases with the pick by pick and some other various examples like you don't have to take a running back or you know, you can go with more of a 0 RB approach or just take one of those guys and take Kittle or take a quarterback and, or another receiver and you're on your way and still have an ability to throw a lot of capital at the running back position. I think again it's just a matter of if you are, I need to get my running backs a little bit more secure. Then make sure you understand what you're doing. If you take, if you go receiver, receiver at the back end of the first round.

[Adam Azer]

Well, I think one of the conundrums here is do we base, do we, do we base our expectations off of last year or the three years before that? Because I looked at running backs drafted in rounds or. Well, not rounds. Running backs ADP 13 through 24 and how did they do? And I'm going to tell you how they did in just a second. Now, if you haven't signed up for BETMGM yet, use the bonus code Fantasy and you're going to get up to a fifteen hundred dollar first bet offer on your first wager with BetMGM. And here's how it works. You download the BETMGM app and you sign up and you use the bonus code Fantasy. Deposit at least $10. Place your first wager on any game and you're going to receive up to fifteen hundred dollars in bonus bets if your bet loses. So just make sure that you use the bonus code fantasy when you sign up on BetMGM. Quick break here and we'll be right back to talk about running backs 13 through 24 and what history tells us after this.

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[Heath Cummings]

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[Adam Azer]

Okay, so I've been trying to compare running backs versus wide receivers. Basically throughout drafts, but specifically in the early rounds, the top 24 drafted each position in PPR leagues and who's safer. Which position is safer. I would say that the data shows that running backs are a little bit safer, but if you look at PPR scoring, there's usually about the same amount of running backs that score 14 PPR points per game as there are wide receivers who score 15 PPR points per game. It's every year it's pretty close in terms of 15 points per game for a wide receiver, 14 points per game for a running back. So running backs drafted as top 24 guys have have hit the 1414 point per game mark about 75% of the time, whereas it's 65% for wide receivers. So we're having more success drafting running backs in terms of top 24 guys than we are wide receivers. This is over the last four or five years, so that's one thing to consider. Here's another thing though, Heath and I think it really relates to today's show topic, right? Is the running backs. And specifically if you're taking two wide receivers or something with your first two picks, running backs 13 through 24, that 14 point per game mark, they had hit that four times, right? So in 2021, 2 and 3, four running backs in that range of 12 averaged 14 or more PPR fantasy points per game. Last year I think it was nine. It was such a good year for Arby's 13 through 24 and honestly it was such a logic defying year for running backs because we're so worried about all these old guys and pretty much all of them were good. Derek Henry, James, Connor, Aaron Jones, Alvin Camara. They were all old for the position and they were all really good and now we have to worry about them again being old. So you know what I'm trying to get at here? It was such a good year for running backs. Should we dial our expectations down a bit and what do you think in general about Arby's 13 through 24? Because they look pretty damn good on paper, but history tells us it's not a great range. Except last year it was.

[Heath Cummings]

You shouldn't ever let one year change all of your priors. You also shouldn't completely ignore it. And one thing we saw was a little more running in the NFL last year. Like, we. We had to figure out how do we beat all this too high stuff the defense is doing. And a lot of teams decided the way we're going to do that is just run it down their throats and let them stay in that defense. And so I am more optimistic about the running backs in the RB 13 to 24 range probably than I was going into last year, but not expecting a repeat of what we saw last year. It's. It's somewhere in the middle. And like, looking at that group now, I've got a little gap in my rankings kind of from. It's more like RB 16 through 24 that I'm looking at in kind of the same range. And it's. It's RB15 where the cutoff is that I feel like guys could be RB1s this year. The other thing that really changes it, and I think you have a question coming up about this, so I'm going to go ahead and run it. But it's maybe the best running back class we've had in six or seven years.

[Adam Azer]

Yeah.

[Heath Cummings]

And a lot of the guys at the tail end of that RB 13 through 24 range are rookie running backs. And even when people were talking about the dead zone and avoiding that range of running backs, the guys who were generally the exception were the rookies or the young, exciting running backs. So I think you should feel more optimistic about it than you did last year.

[Jamie Eisenberg]

I think part of it also is, I mean, you could start to see, you know, unfortunately, you know, some of the pitfalls for a couple of the guys that may go at the top of this group. James Cook with the holdout hold in Walker now with a foot injury. Hampton. I think the. The hype may get out of control if Naji's back at some point soon and sort of ruins that breeze. Hall and the. In the potential competition. Like, you can see the. The flaws for that. But I think part of this, which I think helped last year based on the. The previous years, they got pushed down a lot.

[Adam Azer]

Yep.

[Jamie Eisenberg]

And so we'll see how that changes this year. Right.

[Adam Azer]

Because as of now, it's a. It's about the same.

[Jamie Eisenberg]

Right. I Don't think we've seen it yet. But again, where does the true ADP sort of come in when all the drafts are happening, when the quarterbacks are being selected a little bit higher than we expect and maybe the, the, the third tier of, second to third tier of tight ends start to push up a little bit as well. You know, LaPorta and Kelsey and those guys maybe come into this range a little bit more so than we've seen in our drafts. But I do think that when you start to look at the value for these guys, you know, and so like, where does James Connor's value settle? Where does Henderson and Harvey and Caleb Johnson's value settle? You know, like it's still an uncertain market, you know, And I think that's where, you know, to what you, you said yesterday. And it goes both ways, you know, drafting early versus drafting late. You know, you may be getting some incredible values on some of these players or it may go the other way. It may be awful at later points in the, in the draft process. So it's just a, a strange group of players. I don't say strange. An interesting group, intriguing group of players of how this is all going to work out, because you may get, you know, you may be buying too soon on Charbonnet at this point because of Walker's injury. And Walker may fall to a spot now where it's like, how can I not draft him because of what he can be if this foot injury is not bad. Same with Joe Mixon. Right. Same situation.

[Adam Azer]

Right. And mixing their. Not sure if he's gonna be ready for week one, but there's a chance, certainly. And Walker, I mean, look, it's, it's August 5th. He's missed three days with a foot injury. Doesn't mean he won't be back out there on August 8th. And then all of our fears will be put to rest. But he does have an injury history, especially I think ankle injuries he's had in the past.

[Heath Cummings]

I, I think the Walker one brings up something I was frustrated or struggling with yesterday because we were like, there was all types of positive stuff coming out about Caleb Johnson the last couple of days and how good he's looked running. And it was like three days before that. All the coverage was what a disaster. Caleb Johnson was in past protection. Now he just was just getting trucked over and over and couldn't block anybody. And that's why, like with. And sometimes we have guys that are hurt for three days and we start to adjust them and then a week later they've got training camp highlights and they're perfectly fine. So you just. We want to react to news, but we probably need to react slowly and do it when the news is more consistent. Over a week, at least.

[Adam Azer]

Yeah, I know it's tough. Don't draft yet a little bit. All right, let me go through some news and notes. Breeze hall returned to drills. Isaac Arando, this is a big one here because he's a guy we keep saying, you draft Christian McCaffrey, you better draft Isaac Arando. He's going to miss a few weeks with a shoulder injury. So how does that change things for fantasy Jamie, specifically the McCaffrey manager?

[Jamie Eisenberg]

Well, one, I. I think if you're drafting Garendo, you're drafting him for the potential what if, which hopefully will not come early in the season, so he can still not have to be used a lot and get right. But it also should suggest at this point that Jordan James should be on your radar as somebody to take with the late round flyer if this injury continues or who might be our new cockroach. Amir Abdullah, who's now on the roster and had some very good moments last year, can do well in this pass catching role, I'm sure. I hope he doesn't matter, but, you know, never know. In any event, I, I keep moving Garando down. Not because of this, because there are other players in that range that I like more, but also because McCaffrey seems to be healthy at this point. So I was probably a little too aggressive in some of my early drafts with Grando because we didn't know what was going to happen with McCaffrey once the training camp process started. So I think if you're. If you're still drafting Garendo, you're drafting him with the what if down the road.

[Adam Azer]

Oh, my gosh. Amir Abdullah. Are you kidding me? Let's see. Week 15, he was RB7. Week 16, he was RB15, and he scored 19.5 points in week 15 and he was a week what week am I on here? Week A16. Sorry. And he was only RB15. And then week 17, your fantasy championship. Amir Abdullah was RB7.

[Jamie Eisenberg]

I started him in several playoffs last year.

[Adam Azer]

He scored 19.6, 19.5 and 17.7 PPR fantasy points.

[Jamie Eisenberg]

He was good.

[Adam Azer]

And he had three carries, seven carries, and then 20 carries. Wow. I remember that. That was a lot of fun. Actually. Ken Walker's missed three days.

[Jamie Eisenberg]

One of his. Yeah, I don't think you've done in a while. Your, your Twitter names, you know, Amir Abdullah Alvin Kamara, same thing.

[Adam Azer]

Ken Walker, three days he's missed with a foot injury. Damian Pierce is off the PUP list for the Texans. Benjamin Albright of KOA Colorado says that both running backs in Denver running backs look good, but he suggests that J.K. dobbins is RB1 and he will be until RJ Harvey gets better at pass protection. You hear that a lot about rookies. The Giant sign Jonathan Ward because Cam Scatter Boo is banged up right now and I don't know the severity of the injury but obviously it would matter for Tyrone Tracy's hamstring injury. By the way, Cleveland signed Tyler Huntley at quarterback shoulder Sanders back at practice. But it looks like Joe Flacco as as Jamie and Heath mentioned yesterday appeared appear to be the FA appears to be the favorite Joe Flacco to become the starting quarterback.

[Heath Cummings]

Can you imagine how high I'm going to have Joe Flacco ranked Week 1 against the Bengals defense. Oh chasing the score against that offense. He might throw 50 passes nice.

[Jamie Eisenberg]

Maybe the start of the week.

[Adam Azer]

Yes, Green Bay cornerback Nate Hobbs had knee surgery, but he could be ready for week one. Other quarterback news Spencer Rattler is clearly outplaying Tyler Schuck. According to New Orleans Football's Nick Underhill. Tampa Bay signed quarterback Teddy Bridgewater. The Chargers met with Keenan Allen. They might sign him. We'll see. And Travis Hunter, he was listed as a starting wide receiver and a second string cornerback on the first depth chart. And Heath, you were saying that they want him to play 80 of the offensive snaps.

[Heath Cummings]

I think Liam Cohen was very hesitant to answer the question. I think Jamie said it was Rich Eisen, right?

[Jamie Eisenberg]

Yep.

[Heath Cummings]

Was trying to pin him down like what's what this how many snaps is this guy playing on offense and defense and he started on offense and said like it if you could play around 80 of the snaps.

[Adam Azer]

Wow.

[Heath Cummings]

And then we'll try to match what he does on defense to that but it it sure seems like offense is the focus and defense is the secondary thing.

[Jamie Eisenberg]

Hopefully he said as part of the answer and you could check it out on Coach Index. He said that he can walk on the field and play corner now essentially and offense is what he has to learn the most the nuances of of playing the position. He said there's not a time that he is not in a meeting with someone. It's very similar to you know if you want to just see what his his in Travis Hunter's interview with Pete Prisco which you can find on our site saying the exact same thing you know he's basically going to do as much as he can to play every snap on both sides of the ball. But if he's playing 80 on offense, it's going to be very good for his fantasy value. As long as he holds up, that's the best thing.

[Heath Cummings]

I had him projected right around 70% and which put him at wide receiver 30. If I put him at 80, he's going to be like 8. Wide receiver 18. But I, I just hope some documentary crew is following him around at the end of the year. We get the video of how Travis Hunter became the first guy to be a full time offensive and defensive player.

[Adam Azer]

That'd be pretty cool. Okay. Travis Hunter is currently a 6th round pick and someone we will talk about in a couple of days. But right now let's get back to some running back questions. So, Jamie, how does this strong rookie class factor in after Ashton Genti, who's likely going to be a first round pick? How does the rookie class change your draft strategy, if at all?

[Jamie Eisenberg]

Well, I, I think first off, Hampton is getting closer to Genti than he is to, you know, how is, how did you have a triple H and.

[Adam Azer]

Triple H. Double J. Yeah. Which is single J right now because Judkins, right.

[Jamie Eisenberg]

He's, he's closer to Genti than he's ever been and we'll see how long that stays because of Naji's eye injury, which by the way, I think it was yesterday or maybe Sunday. There was the video of him walking around practice not running. He was just walking around the practice field like this is so weird.

[Adam Azer]

Yeah.

[Jamie Eisenberg]

What's going on with Naji Harris right now? I don't know what to make, but hopefully he's okay. Right. In every, in every facet. Not just as I am, you know, whatever's going on. But this is just weird that he had an eye injury and he's not running at all. In any event, I think there is going to be stretches of the season where this class is dominant. You just mentioned the Broncos report where J.K. dobbins is running ahead of Harvey until he picks up until he gets better in pass protection. He's brought up the, the Steelers situation, which we heard Jalen Warren we know is great in pass protection based on how he grades out in previous years and Caleb Johnson may or may not be struggling with it. There was several reports the last couple of days because of training camp stops from various networks about how great Travion Henderson looks and still Ramandre Stevenson is going to be in the mix. So Almost all of these guys, aside from Genti, are in situations and Judkins could be maybe a little bit different if he ever can get on the field. But all of these guys are in tandems or committees. And so at what point, including Scatterboo, including Jaden Blue, who's getting rave reviews in Dallas, maybe BA Shaltutin with the Jaguars, and maybe Jacori, Krasky, Merritt with the Commanders, like, at some point we may see these guys all be the starters and all have fantastic stretches of production, but you may have to be patient with it. And so when you're drafting these guys, it's hard to say I'm comfortable unless, you know, you really like the rest of your roster and are just going to take some shots at the position. But I'm comfortable with Travion Henderson Week 1 as my second running back. I'm comfortable with Caleb Johnson Week 1 as my second running back. I'm comfortable with even a Maureen Hampton Week one is my first running back. And so it may just have to preach patience and believe in what these guys can become when you start the season.

[Adam Azer]

On the other hand, if you want to take Henderson or Harvey in round five and say it's a pick, not necessarily for week one, you can come back and you can take Aaron Jones or I would take Isaiah Pacheco in round six and have a guy that you could feel maybe more comfortable in.

[Jamie Eisenberg]

In Week one, or you can just take that backfill and take Ramon J. Stevenson and Johnson and Warren or, you know, see how that plays out. I'm just saying, based on cost, like, if you don't want to, well, that's double dip on the running back position right away. Like you can wait a little bit and still get the second guy, quote unquote, who may be the starter Week one and just sort of see how that plays out. So like in the case of what Heath is talking about, for example, like, Jerome Ford's an easy target for the start of the season at this point because no matter when Judkin signs, he's most likely going to be so far behind in terms of prep and being NFL ready. Jerome Ford's probably the starter Week one against a very good. In a very good matchup against the Bengals.

[Adam Azer]

Here's one way that you could structure a team that had the 9th or 10th pick. Let's say you could take Ashton Genty in round one, or you could take. That could be Derek Henry or Devon hn. Yeah, we'd take hn, right?

[Jamie Eisenberg]

You could take HN Yeah. How are you?

[Adam Azer]

Yeah. All right. So you take a. Take a hero. Rb Brian Thomas Jr. In round two, or Nico Collins or maybe Puka Nuku in round two. Round three, come back, Jackson, Smith and Jigba could be there. You might like him. Or maybe Jaden Daniels is there. You might want to take a quarterback. Round four, we like George Kittle there. Or maybe there's a wide receiver you like. Round five, RJ Harvey or Trevion Henderson. Round six, Isaiah Pacheco or Aaron Jones. I don't think that's so bad. I. I could live with that. I'd be pretty pumped about that. You want me to say it again?

[Jamie Eisenberg]

I don't disagree. I mean, the strategy, at least, you know, players might disagree, but I. I think in terms of going that route, sure. You know, especially knowing that. That Jones or Pacheco or whoever else may be in that spot. There could also be your flex at some point during the season.

[Adam Azer]

Goodies.

[Heath Cummings]

And I know, like, it's good that you emphasize that. We try to find some of these strategies that people can think about. I just stay open because our drafts are so different across a variety of different spectrums that there's any. There's a lot of different paths that might work out, but I don't have any problem with that one if it happens to work out that way.

[Adam Azer]

Right. So that would give you a lineup of, let's say, Jaden Daniels, Devon HN, Isaiah Pacheco, Brian Thomas Jr. Jackson Snow, George Kittle, and we only have one wide receiver on this team. Okay, so you're not going to take Daniels and Kittle. That's. That would be the. You'd have to take a wide receiver.

[Heath Cummings]

Just ask your next question, which is. It does the.

[Jamie Eisenberg]

The.

[Adam Azer]

Okay, go ahead. But let me take a. We'll take a break and then we're going to talk about. What is it? The. The formats. Three receiver. That. That's your question? Yeah. All right. Can I just finish up the rookie discussion with this? Do you agree or disagree? If you walk out of your draft without any rookie running backs, you've made a m.

[Jamie Eisenberg]

No, you haven't made a mistake. I mean, it's. It's probably not the best way to go, given how good these guys can be. But to Heath's point, like, I don't want to walk into my draft saying I have to draft a rookie.

[Adam Azer]

Like, but it's easy to do. It's easy.

[Jamie Eisenberg]

It depends on what you're talking about here, because, yes, you can draft blue or Tootin or you know, DJ Giddens or, you know, cross gamer. Like any of these guys you could draft at some point, Samson. But like, I'm not gonna walk in saying, okay, I like HM better than Jetty. I'm not taking Genti over agent because I need to get it.

[Adam Azer]

No, but you don't have to. I'm not saying you, you, you know, you throw out the rankings and just say I can take rookies. But I definitely, I'm not leaving any drafts without at least one rookie running back. This is too good of a rookie running back class.

[Jamie Eisenberg]

What level of rookie running back?

[Adam Azer]

It doesn't matter. I mean, the later we go, the more I'd, I'd want. If I didn't get any in the first eight rounds, I'm probably gonna take a couple of shots. But there we have old running backs. We have old veteran running backs. That is a bad recipe. I know it wasn't bad last year, but those guys could falter. Get some youth. Get some youth at running back. Heath, you should have at least two rookie running backs on most of your teams.

[Heath Cummings]

Do not make an intentional choice to make sure you draft a rookie running back and throw away a pick, because you're doing that. And the other problem is, like a lot of the old backs that we're worried about don't have rookies waiting behind them.

[Adam Azer]

I know. I, in the middle of that rant, I was like, well, I'm not sure this is actually helps the argument.

[Jamie Eisenberg]

Two. Two that come to mind. You have Woody Marks, you know, behind two old running backs. One's hurt right now in Houston and Devin Neal behind an old running back in, in New Orleans. So they're, they're free. Yeah.

[Heath Cummings]

And you said round eight. I know you want to take a break, but you were going to skip the question that I wanted you to ask. So you were going to ask if we like running backs and wide receivers better in round like 8, 9, 10, the later rounds.

[Adam Azer]

Oh, yeah, I was gonna skip that.

[Heath Cummings]

The reason that I don't want to take like force a rookie running back in round nine is because a strange thing this year, and you've talked about it, we usually get one or two good wide receivers from this round as of ADP right now. I love the wide receivers available at round 8, 9, 10. Now you get to the later rounds, you probably should just take backup running backs and hope they become starters. But looking at CBS adp, and I know it'll be different than Best Ball adp, but Roma Dunes, A Cooper Cup, Ricky Pearsall Amica Buka, Matthew Golden. Like that's, that's the round eight through ten sauce right there.

[Adam Azer]

I feel comfortable saying this. I could give you some numbers, but I feel comfortable saying that once we get to round seven or later, you will see more success stories. Not necessarily this year, but in the last seven or eight years, more big successes at wide receiver than running back. So that's something to keep in mind. Now this, of course, this year, weak wide receiver, rookie class, great running back, rookie class. So that could change. But you definitely want to spend some late picks on wide receivers because Lad McConkey and Jackson Smith and Jigba and Brian Thomas Jr. And all that from last year. That's just the tip of the iceberg. There's a lot of success stories. All right, now we're going to take a break. We're going to talk about running back strategies in different formats. We're going to talk about how much you matter, you care about age, sleepers, breakouts, bus auction advice, all after this on FFT now streaming on Paramount.

[Heath Cummings]

The suspect is trying to evade us.

[Adam Azer]

You're walking into the unknown. We had somebody out there starting fires for the heck of it. It's dark, there's no road signs. We need the help of Air1.

[Jamie Eisenberg]

When there's chaos below, he's bailing on foot.

[Heath Cummings]

This individual did not want to be caught.

[Jamie Eisenberg]

They go high.

[Adam Azer]

The helicopter sees you.

[Jamie Eisenberg]

He never really realized we were above.

[Adam Azer]

Watching him the whole time.

[Heath Cummings]

An all new season of Chopper Cops now streaming on Paramount Plus September 4th on Paramount Plus. Someone is trying to frame us until.

[Jamie Eisenberg]

Our names are cleared.

[Adam Azer]

We're fugitives from interval like Bonnie and.

[Heath Cummings]

Clyde with better snacks. Espionage. You still as good a shot as you used to be. Better is their love life language. We like to walk that fine line between techno thriller and romantic comedy.

[Adam Azer]

We make up our own rules. NCIS Tony and Zea.

[Heath Cummings]

Streaming September 4th on Paramount Plus.

[Adam Azer]

Okay, how does your strategy change in different formats, Jamie? I guess let's start with scoring. Let's start with non ppr versus half ppr versus full.

[Jamie Eisenberg]

In non ppr. I think you look for running backs certainly earlier rather than later. You want to, you know, get one of these, you know, workhorse running backs that are going to get the opportunity to touch the ball as much as possible. So, for example, Derek Henry is a round two pick for me. He's a round one pick in non ppr. Guys like Alvin Kamara on that format, you know, plummet just because they're not going to get as many Carries. Same with the great Amir Abdullah in half ppr. It depends on which players you're comparing them to at what point in the draft. So for example, Derrick Henry at the back end of round one versus Puka Nakua, for example. So that's a tough choice. Depending on how you think Puka is going to do in terms of scoring touchdowns. I would still lean more toward the pass catchers in that form format just because I still think the half PPR matters a little bit. But it becomes a little bit more tricky in full ppr. You want. Running backs are going to be involved in the passing game if you have the option to draft them. So, you know, again, you may not believe based on Greg Roman's history and Naji Harris being there, that Omari Hampton is going to be a significant fact. The passing game, by comparison, Ken Walker's coming off a very good season catching the ball and Alvin Kamara is in that same range and Breece hall is in that same range. So those three running backs are going to do a better job catching the ball. So it's going to, you know, depend on when you start to compare player versus player in each format.

[Adam Azer]

And I would say just based on a bunch of mock drafts that we've done in the past and having this conversation, I have not noticed a big difference in strategy change from half PPR to full ppr. Maybe certain players, but I don't think if you looked at, you know, the way we draft, when I say we, I mean, you know that the three of us, plus Dave, usually Dan, Jacob, Gibbs, they're in our drafts. Thomas is in our drafts. Just kind of the CBS FFT family. I think if you did looked at ADP half PPR versus full PPR guys, I kind of feel like it'd be pretty similar, whereas non PPR would be dramatically different.

[Heath Cummings]

Part of that is because the rankings in the draft room on most sites are going to be the same for half PPR and full PPR. It's still some version of PPR. I will say in my projections, RB12 and wide receiver 12 are projected for the same number of points and half PPR. There's a 30 point gap favoring the running backs.

[Adam Azer]

But does it change the way you draft though?

[Heath Cummings]

Because you know, I'm much more likely to have a running back in the flex than half people.

[Adam Azer]

Okay, okay.

[Jamie Eisenberg]

Having just done a half PPR draft with other analysts for the flex leagues, there were two managers who took very drastic approaches. One went hero wide receiver and took only one wide receiver in the first five rounds, one went hero rb and I don't think took a second running back until like maybe around eight.

[Heath Cummings]

I could see in a half PPR draft taking three running backs in the first four picks.

[Jamie Eisenberg]

Here's just. Since it's relevant, I'll find it for you real quick.

[Adam Azer]

And that's because what Heath said, three running backs in the first four picks. That. That's partially because Heath has a big blob of wide receivers that probably he feels the guys in getting round six may not be that different than the ones he gets in round four.

[Heath Cummings]

And the blob gets bigger and half PPR fair because there's those catches don't matter as much.

[Jamie Eisenberg]

So here's. Yeah, here are the two teams. This was one was pick. Oh, wait, crap, wrong one. Sorry.

[Adam Azer]

This is a half PPR league where you don't have to start a tight end, by the way.

[Jamie Eisenberg]

Why can't I get there? Sorry.

[Adam Azer]

Want to come back to it? Podcast awards, folks.

[Jamie Eisenberg]

This is it.

[Adam Azer]

All right, here we go.

[Jamie Eisenberg]

So one was. This was the third team, started with Bajan Robinson and then it was Garrett Wilson. T. Higgins.

[Adam Azer]

Garrett Wilson.

[Jamie Eisenberg]

Yeah, a little too soon for me, but whatever. Garrett Wilson, T. Higgins, Tedro McMillan, Jameson Williams, Ricky Pearsall, Ameka Buka. Next running back was not until round eight with J.K. dobbins. And then went all running backs with the next four picks of J.K. dobbins, Tajie Spears, Dylan Sampson and Ray Davis. That was from pick three. Then at pick 10, we had Christian McCaffrey, Jonathan Taylor, Alvin Kamara, DJ Moore, DeAndre Swift, and then Joe Burrow. So only one wide receiver through the first six rounds, but four running backs in the first five.

[Heath Cummings]

These are double flex leagues, right?

[Jamie Eisenberg]

These are double flexes. So two running back, three receivers, two Flexbox.

[Adam Azer]

Yeah. Right. You can start all the running backs. Yeah, I mean, I prefer the running, but I'm sure we all prefer the running back team.

[Heath Cummings]

Yeah.

[Jamie Eisenberg]

Based on the start. Yes. Yeah.

[Adam Azer]

All right. But let's.

[Jamie Eisenberg]

Again, this is the receiving core for that team. D.J. moore, Michael Pittman, Juwan Jennings.

[Adam Azer]

Oh, that's awful. That's.

[Jamie Eisenberg]

That's horrible. Right, so again, the start, you may prefer the. The. Actually, I think I prefer the receivers. The. The other team. Just because the start, like the running backs are obviously going to be a little bit tough to stomach, but you still have Robinson and you just have to hit. Like, if Tyjay Spears is the best running back in Tennessee, that team is going to be very tough to beat.

[Adam Azer]

Well, yeah, that team does have a lot of if scenarios though. You could see it going well. So that's, that's one thing that people do sometimes they just take a lot of chances on a guy like Tajie Spears and I forget the other but any, anybody like that Zach Charbonnet where you might get a four week stretch of having an RB one and it might work out for you real quick here. Heath 2 receiver league versus 3 receiver league. How did things change for you?

[Heath Cummings]

In a two receiver league you should draft running backs earlier. In a three receiver league you should draft more wide receivers earlier.

[Adam Azer]

So Hero RB Hero RB and more likely to do it in a three receiver league.

[Heath Cummings]

Z I could do Hero in either one. 0 RB more likely to do it in three wide receiver league.

[Adam Azer]

All right, auction advice out of a 100 budget. Jamie, how much are you spending on the first round pick running backs?

[Jamie Eisenberg]

You're asking the wrong person. He's I I yeah, go ahead, go ahead.

[Heath Cummings]

I've got between 28 and 31 for Bijan H.N.

[Jamie Eisenberg]

Barkley, Genty Gibbs and that makes sense. The reason I say that is because I'm typically not going to do that. I'm gonna let somebody else spend their budget on those guys and be the take more shots on the Taije Spears group in salary cap leagues.

[Adam Azer]

Then what are you spending your money on? Receivers okay, does age matter anymore? As I said at the beginning of the Show, James Connors 30, Derek Henry's 31 Aaron Jones is 30, Joe Mixon's 29 Alvin Camara is 30, Christian McCaffrey's 29. Before last year 29 and obviously older. Not good years for running backs, but last year totally bucked the trend.

[Heath Cummings]

Heath, I rank all of those guys lower than I project them. I think it still matters it I'm not going to call Derek Henry a bust this year, but I've also not been drafting him and if I was going strictly on projections, I may have a couple times. But Father Time's still undefeated.

[Jamie Eisenberg]

If we were not concerned about age, Derek Henry and Alvin Kamara will be top five picks.

[Adam Azer]

Well, Camara still has this horrible offense though.

[Heath Cummings]

And one more Camara concern since that's the running back show. Kellen Moore's throwing two running backs in his offense is not at least not great. I'm not it's not bad. But Austin Eckler's had caught a lot of passes with Kellen Moore went from 6.3 catches per game to 3.6 the year that Moore took over the Chargers.

[Jamie Eisenberg]

Really?

[Heath Cummings]

Zeke caught 77 passes the year before Kellen Moore took over. Never caught more than like 54 with Kellen Moore, Saquon Barkley. I know it had a lot to do with Jalen Hurts, but just had the lowest receptions per game of his career. So maybe it's only one less catch per game for Camara, but yes, that offense is so terrible, any ding in his reception volume is a problem.

[Adam Azer]

Yeah, I look forward to talking about that tomorrow because I, I looked at have we had standout running backs or any wide receiver or tight end on really bad offenses and there were enough over the last five years to kind of, I've been sort of poo pooing Camara a lot. But I think, I think I can get on board because he's, he's around four pick. I, I does anybody take him in round four? I mean round five? I feel like I would take Camara. Round four feels a little early to me. How about you guys?

[Jamie Eisenberg]

I've drafted him once. It was in our pick by pick and so it was at the four or five turn. So that's the spot I'm comfortable drafting him at this point and really only in ppr, half PPR and non. It's much later than that.

[Heath Cummings]

Here's another hot take. I'll take Travion over him now.

[Adam Azer]

Oh, wow. Okay. The younger, younger version, huh? Okay. My favorite sleeper running back is blank Jamie.

[Jamie Eisenberg]

Well, since I have to get a rookie before I leave the draft, yes, I'll say Jaden Blue. Just the reports. I think for a backfield that has so much ambiguity, there's, there's a potential for him to be the best. And I think with every positive devonte Williams report that we had at the start of training camp, we're not getting that for Blue. So there's going to be a little market correction. But I move those guys closer together. He's just an easy guy to take in that round nine plus range. You know, if he's still on board.

[Adam Azer]

I'll just stay on that because I think I could make the argument for Javante Williams as the best sleeper running back. I definitely think he's going to have the first crack at it. You know, remember yesterday, Jamie, I was reading some headlines from 2024, some things that I had put in the notes a year ago about training camp risers. I don't know if I read this one, but it was Chris Godwin says he finally feels healthy two years removed from his torn acl. And that's what I'm hoping for for both Javante Williams and Breece hall talk about him tomorrow. But that some guys it takes that extra year because Javante had a super bad knee injury. It was not just a torn acl, was a really serious knee injury. And if he, he's great in pass protection. Right. He's probably going to be the third down back. Jaden Blue was what, six, six round pick? Seventh round pick.

[Jamie Eisenberg]

Phil Moffat was seventh round. I think Blue was fifth.

[Adam Azer]

Oh, okay. Fifth. All right, well that's a little bit better because fifth round pick in most years I would ignore but in a running back class this deep you can't ignore it. But yeah, I think, I think you look at the cat. Let's just say this, look at the Cowboys backfield and keep monitoring it because Rico Dowdle was really good the last half of the year when he finally got the work. If they can get someone in that role, whoever it is probably gonna be pretty good.

[Jamie Eisenberg]

I don't think it's a bad idea to take both those guys that would.

[Adam Azer]

Meet the quota of rookie running backs.

[Jamie Eisenberg]

It's true.

[Adam Azer]

He threw a sleeper for you.

[Heath Cummings]

I've got two because I'm being stubborn and still using what ADP says. And so Tank Bigsby's up 10 spots but he's still pick 117. And I think he's going to be the starting running back for Jacksonville. Probably lead him in rushing yards and rushing touchdowns and then if he gets elevated out of that range, which I would take him a couple rounds earlier, Braylon Allen is still like three, two rounds behind him and probably going to have. It's not going. They're not going to score as many touchdowns as the Lion. So it's not David Montgomery production but the David Montgomery role for giving two.

[Jamie Eisenberg]

Then I mean, I feel left out.

[Adam Azer]

Yeah, I'm gonna give two. I'm gonna give a second one. Go ahead, Jamie.

[Jamie Eisenberg]

Oh. Taiji Spears is like an auto pick for me. You know, I, I think just we saw it last year when both were healthy. You know, he had some very positive moments. There was the one game where Pollard didn't play and he had over 20 total touches. I think this offense as a whole is going to be better and I think Spears has an opportunity to be a potential flex in deeper leagues, but a lottery ticket if something happens to Pollard.

[Adam Azer]

I'm only giving this one because I, I feel I'm not, I wasn't planning on giving sleepers, breakouts and busts, but I feel like everyone's going to be on board with this. If you're going to say Tank Bigsby. I think we got to say J.K. dobbins. They're going in the same range. Dobbins appears to be the starting running back. In what capacity? I don't know. But starting running back for the Denver Broncos. I think yesterday I said people think they have the best offensive line in football. I think everyone kind of feels like the Eagles do. But right after that it might. It's the Broncos, at least in some.

[Jamie Eisenberg]

You saying hyperbolic takes yesterday, that one was.

[Adam Azer]

That was heat of the moment, the Caleb Williams one. But I'm gonna say J.K. dobbins is a sleeper. He's going after pick 100.

[Jamie Eisenberg]

Agree. I'm surprised you said that though, because you sort of painted a negative picture of Dobbins yesterday.

[Adam Azer]

No, he could be a sleeper. You're. It's a great point. He was amazing the first two games of the year. After that, he just really wasn't that good. It was weird. Very inefficient, not. Not making big plays. But he's only 26 years old, so I don't know what to make of that. But even if I have those concerns about him, I still think he's a sleeper.

[Jamie Eisenberg]

He would have been proud of me yesterday. I swept Name that player. Yeah.

[Heath Cummings]

Love it.

[Adam Azer]

Do you guys agree about that on Dobbins, that he's a sleeper?

[Jamie Eisenberg]

Yes, I, I think the, the capital right now, you know, again you get the reports like we're getting that he's running with the ones and you know, might be better in pass protection and all those things. That's probably going to change where his ADP is. But I also think this is, this is a coach and a system that has proven you can get quality production out of two guys. And so it just. And this, this is again drafting early versus drafting late. And we're going back a little bit sooner, but the RJ Harvey value is hopefully going to settle to a spot where it's too fantastic to pass up. You know. And so like I think when you start to look at the the 3, 4 and 5 rookie running backs of Henderson, Harvey and Caleb Johnson and obviously they're very different type of players. Henderson right now is going to probably move past those guys if he's not already because of what's happened the last few days, I think we're going to see Harvey fall because of reports like this. And Caleb Johnson is kind of just going to be sort of settling as the the third option of those three guys. But one more training camp highlight of Caleb Johnson running Through what would be seven tackles for a touchdown and saying, wow, look at the burst is. Is gonna, you know, change some of those things. So take it for what it's worth, I would take Henderson first, but I think Harvey could end up being the best of maybe the non genty guys if something happens to dobbins. So those four or five games that Dobbins typically misses, R.J. harvey might be an absolute superstar.

[Adam Azer]

All right, my favorite breakout running back is Blank Heath.

[Heath Cummings]

Well, they're all running rookies, so the all. All my favorites breakouts are rookies. And I'll just, I'll say Travion Henderson. I. And this is some confirmation bias because he's my second favorite running back coming into the NFL and you can't watch Patriots reports without seeing them glow about how much different his burst is than anyone else on the team. Ramandre Stevenson's already fumbled once in training camp. And that's the thing. The two things that keep veterans that we don't like ahead of rookies that we love are pass protection and ball security. And Trevion Henderson enters the NFL better than Ramon Daria.

[Jamie Eisenberg]

Both.

[Heath Cummings]

He will break out in year one.

[Adam Azer]

Love this. I love it. You're firing. Firing me up to pick Travion Henderson is. I've been nervous. I'm nervous about the split, but yeah, I. You make such good points. Jamie. Your favorite break.

[Jamie Eisenberg]

You have buyers remorse from taking Harvey over Henderson in your rookie draft.

[Adam Azer]

I didn't do that, did I? There's no way.

[Jamie Eisenberg]

I thought you took RV Over Henderson in the big burglar league.

[Adam Azer]

Oh, please tell me I didn't do that.

[Heath Cummings]

I'm gonna look at the draft results right now.

[Adam Azer]

It was defensible, I suppose, before the Dobbins sighting, but I loved Travion Henderson.

[Heath Cummings]

No, I, you know, he. He took Cam Ward at pick three. I took Travy on a pick five. He took Harvey at pick seven.

[Jamie Eisenberg]

Yeah, I have probably the biggest buyers remorse on Judkins.

[Adam Azer]

Who's your favorite breakout? Jamie?

[Jamie Eisenberg]

I can't believe he let me have this. I'm going to take DeAndre Swift. This is going to be the best year of his career.

[Adam Azer]

Okay. All right.

[Heath Cummings]

I believe it.

[Adam Azer]

DeAndre Swift has been top 24 per game every year. Let's see, the highest. He did finish his RB10 in full PPR in 2021. RB20 that year per game. This is per game in non PPR. So that was a year where he had 62 catches in 13 games. So what do you think? Do you think he's got top 15 potential.

[Jamie Eisenberg]

Absolutely. I mean, you know, again, when you start to, when you start to look at some of the situations, you know, forget about who he is, forget about his resume, anything. If you just look at situation right, you have Ben Johnson coming in, you have an upgraded offensive line, you have a guy that's dealing with a player in, in the second spot who's had a hard time staying healthy and who struggled and Roshan Johnson and a seventh round rookie as the top competition right now. Now, I would not rule out if somebody gets cut that they add somebody else at some point, you know, so from like a Devin Singletary, Antonio Gibson type, which I don't think is a huge threat to DeAndre Swift, but just something to keep in mind, like one of those guys that's, you know, right now second or third on their depth chart, but clearly gonna get pushed aside for either new players or younger players, whatever the case may be. I just think Swift is in such a good spot that he's going to catch a lot of passes. He's gonna, you know, hopefully score enough touchdowns to be relevant and be just in a spot where first off, his draft capital is great at this point. Still, you know, I, I hope it doesn't get out of control, but it's, it's, it's just an easy spot to sort of draft him. And so yes, the, the touchdown potential is the, is the scariest thing, but I think he's going to be top five in receptions at the position.

[Adam Azer]

Wow. I disagree super duper strongly about that.

[Heath Cummings]

Receptions?

[Adam Azer]

Yeah. At the position. DeAndre Swift, top five. I mean, you're just basing that what, on Jameer Gibbs?

[Jamie Eisenberg]

I'm basing it on how this offense is shaping up right now. Get the ball out of his hands quick. I mean, what does that sound like?

[Adam Azer]

They, they definitely want to do that. If they, they want 70 completion rate, they definitely want to do that. Gibbs hasn't really been that high of a catch guy though, believe it or not.

[Heath Cummings]

And, well, but Swift was. He had 70 targets in 14 games with Ben Johnson and 78 the year before in 13 games.

[Adam Azer]

Yeah, I just don't know. I mean, look, I can't, I can't sit here and buy into Colson Loveland and Luther Burden's having a good camp and Romo Dunes a breakout and DJ Moore, they're going to manufacture touches for him. And now DeAndre Swift's going to be top five at the position and catches too. I don't know.

[Heath Cummings]

We're not. Nobody's Selling all of those things. You have to decide which of those.

[Adam Azer]

Okay, but we just talked about RJ Harvey and Travion Henderson. Do we. Do we think Swift's going to have more catches than those guys?

[Heath Cummings]

I think he's going to score more fantasy points.

[Adam Azer]

Do we think he's got more catches though?

[Jamie Eisenberg]

Do I think he's got more catches than Henderson and Harvey? Yeah, I think more than Harvey Henderson. Look, I'm obviously making a bold prediction here, but it. He won't have more than hn. He won't have more than Camara. He won't have more than Bijan.

[Adam Azer]

Bijan.

[Jamie Eisenberg]

That I could see being close. I don't think Bijan's much more than a 50 catch guy. Really?

[Adam Azer]

Didn't he crushed that last year? Am I crazy?

[Heath Cummings]

I've got him at 54 this year.

[Adam Azer]

I should know that. He had 60 last year. All right, whatever.

[Jamie Eisenberg]

It would shock you if Swift is in the 60 range.

[Adam Azer]

Surprise me. Wouldn't shock me. That's okay. You know what? He can be a breakout even if he's not top five in catches.

[Jamie Eisenberg]

All right, so let's. We'll make a bet. Harvey receptions versus Swift receptions.

[Adam Azer]

Yeah, I'll take Harvey.

[Jamie Eisenberg]

Okay.

[Adam Azer]

I like that bet. That's. That's a fun one. That'll be a good one.

[Heath Cummings]

What's the loser up to?

[Adam Azer]

I don't.

[Jamie Eisenberg]

Save your eyebrows. Oh, man.

[Adam Azer]

The loser has to shave my eyebrows. All right, so we got Trayvon Henderson for heath. We got DeAndre Swift for Jamie. I'm just gonna say Chase Brown. I don't see how this guy fails unless he gets hurt. I think this competition, the backfield sucks. Their offensive coordinators talking about he's going to be a household name. Chase Brown, he was top five running back after Zach Moss got hurt last year. I am worried about him holding up. I am. I don't know what kind of workload he can sustain. He's not the biggest, not the smallest, but he's not the biggest. But he could be on the highest scoring offense in football. Anybody want to push back on that or can we move on?

[Jamie Eisenberg]

Say it again.

[Adam Azer]

I'm sorry, Chase Brown. I just. I don't see my. I don't see how he fails unless he gets hurt.

[Jamie Eisenberg]

So you have Joe Burrow as a sleeper.

[Heath Cummings]

Stop.

[Adam Azer]

You said it. He's not an official sleeper.

[Jamie Eisenberg]

You said those words.

[Adam Azer]

I just think he's going a little too late. In six point for passing touchdown leagues.

[Heath Cummings]

Chase Brown had 1350 yards, 54 catches and 11 touchdowns last year. What does he have to do to be a breakout? Like he can be a great pick without being a breakout. But are we, are we going 1500 yards?

[Jamie Eisenberg]

We're not going down the road of what's a breakout versus not a breakout but you know the, the Bucky Irving, Chase Brown portions of seasons where they were awesome and saying that's going to be a full season worth of production. Like you can make the case that that's a breakout. Right? Because if they do that over 17 games or 15 plus games, like that's easy. Top three potential player.

[Adam Azer]

Yeah, I don't. That's 2,000 total yards and 81 catches and 12 touchdowns which I don't. I'll take the under on everything but the touchdowns. But I, I think. No, I think top, I think he could be a top five running back in full ppr. So I, I don't have a. You know that, that's, that's how I would say it. But he's going in the third round. I just, I love that. All right, blank will be a bust. By the way, my sleeper is Isaiah Pacheco. My other sleeper is Isaiah Pacheco. We didn't get to talk about him.

[Jamie Eisenberg]

All right.

[Adam Azer]

Six three are just typical slicks round sleeper. Blank will be a bust.

[Jamie Eisenberg]

Jamie, you've heard me say it a billion times at this point. Saquon Barkley, I just so nervous about the metrics of what he is dealing with. Historical metrics of what he's dealing with of 400 plus total touches, 400 carries. When you factor in the playoffs and the history of 2000 yard rushers. Again, I hope it's not injury related but he's just not somebody that I'm drafting in the first half of round one. I just can't do it.

[Adam Azer]

And you'll take Saquon Barkley when the.

[Jamie Eisenberg]

Back half around one starting at like eighth overall.

[Adam Azer]

Okay.

[Jamie Eisenberg]

I mean again it's you know, a little bit of a coward bust to say it this way but I think for again I just did an analyst draft. He went second overall. It's. It's not, it's not going to change. I think no matter what anybody that's. I don't want to anti Barkley but nervous about Barkley tells you people are still going to draft him in the first five picks.

[Heath Cummings]

I get it and I a lot of times get painted as the guy who's okay with sake one and that's because I'm higher on him than Dave and Jamie. But I've got him fifth and he never ever seems to be there at fifth either. I haven't drafted him once so I, I agree. I'm not taking where everybody else is taking them but there's not quite, you.

[Adam Azer]

Know who your breakout really is by the way, it's a chan okay.

[Heath Cummings]

Yeah but I mean it's hard to say that when a guy's had two seasons already where he Azer statted 20 over 20 points a game.

[Adam Azer]

Yeah, okay.

[Jamie Eisenberg]

Chase Brown, Bucky Irving, they're all the same. They had great stretches of the season where it you can't expect better than those stretches. Right. Unless you're saying they're going to do it the entire year.

[Adam Azer]

Yeah, I don't think Chase Brown's going to be RB3 per game for the entire year which is what he was in full PPR because I don't think he'll catch as many passes but yeah, but I get what you're saying. Heath who's a bus for you James.

[Heath Cummings]

Cook and he was a bust for me before he decided to hold in and stand on business. I just the touchdown regression that's coming is terrifying and early reports when he was practicing there was talk about how he wants to show more three down skill set and there was no sign in Bill's camp that that's what they were planning on doing. It was still a heavy rotation of running backs. He's awesome. I love James Cook as a player but the Bills do not want to use him the way he needs to be used to make up for the touchdown regression that's coming. I won't take him till round four.

[Adam Azer]

And what's going to be interesting Heath is if he continues his hold in you might end up with a lot of James Cook when he starts falling.

[Heath Cummings]

Around for well I would guess if the holding continues to mid August then I'm probably going to be lowering him.

[Adam Azer]

Around five could be all right so sleepers were Jaden Blue and Tajie Spears for Jamie, Tank Bigsby and Braylon Allen for Heath. Breakouts were Trayvon Henderson for Heath, DeAndre Swift for Jamie. We also all everybody loves the Von Hn this year we have a much higher than ADP which is weird because he's 12th and ADP but we have everyone Dave, Jamie and Heath have him as a top five pick that's Devon Hn and the bust Saquon Barkley for Jamie who's got him about 8th. Not that we think Saquon stinks but he's not shouldn't be the second pick and James Cook for Heath all Right. Listen, draft a thon. We are over $125,000. We're going to set a record this year, it seems. But if you go to the website, tinyurl.com 2025fft, scroll down a little bit and click on Auction Houses. Okay. Click on View Auction House. And that's where you're going to see all the things that we have available for you to purchase. That would be spots in the FFT Dynasty league, spots in the podcast league. No bids yet on a private call with Adam Azer, but there are bids on the Jamie and Heath ones. That's pretty messed up. And there's plenty more there. Plenty more. An appearance on the show is one of the things. So go to tinyurl.com 2025fft, click on view Auction House and you'll see all the great things that you can bid on. And it all goes to St. Jude. Thanks so much for watching and listening. Preview Part 2. Tomorrow, we'll go through ADP, we'll go through all the players. Yeah.

[Jamie Eisenberg]

Just to wrap up your fantasy takes so far.

[Adam Azer]

Yeah.

[Jamie Eisenberg]

For the preseason, Caleb Williams, best arm in the NFL. Well, that's not a fantastic, but your NFL takes Caleb Williams, best arm in the NFL.

[Adam Azer]

Yeah. Yeah.

[Jamie Eisenberg]

Correct.

[Adam Azer]

I said it. I would love to take it back, but I did. He has an amazing arm, though. I'll stand by that.

[Jamie Eisenberg]

The best part about that was. So this was on Sports Network yesterday, right? When you said it.

[Adam Azer]

Yes. I had to say national tv.

[Jamie Eisenberg]

You said it. Thomas immediately, immediately texted us and what was it? It was lol. The Caleb Williams take.

[Adam Azer]

Is that what he said? I think he said that might have been the worst take.

[Heath Cummings]

I did add it to the thread.

[Jamie Eisenberg]

Also, you came back from commercial and you're like, I may have misspoke.

[Adam Azer]

Caleb takes probably the worst all time on the pod. That's what. That's what Thomas said. I just. I said it like going into break. I wanted to drop something hot and I went too hot. I went too hot there.

[Jamie Eisenberg]

Joe Burrow is a sleeper.

[Heath Cummings]

Yep.

[Adam Azer]

Yep, I said that.

[Jamie Eisenberg]

And Chase Brown is a breakup.

[Adam Azer]

Oh, there's nothing wrong with that. But calling Pacheco a sleeper might be, you know.

[Jamie Eisenberg]

No, Joe Burrow, sleeper is your worst sleeper call.

[Adam Azer]

My definition is, is people are sleeping on them. Go ahead, Heath.

[Heath Cummings]

No, I think. I think that's. You can define it however you want, Adam. Words don't mean anything at all. I just wanted to say that in 12 minutes, you guys should just stay right here. FFT Dynasty is coming with updating how the rookies have moved in training camp.

[Adam Azer]

Perfect. I think.

[Heath Cummings]

Sure.

[Adam Azer]

There will be some Trayvon Henderson talk on that one.

[Jamie Eisenberg]

Yes.

[Adam Azer]

All right. For Jamie and Heath and Thomas.

[Jamie Eisenberg]

I'm at him tonight.

[Adam Azer]

What's that? Oh. Oh, yeah. Live stream tonight at 7pm we'll see you there. We're doing a live mock draft YouTube.com fantasy football today, 7pm Eastern. Right there. Okay, now I'm signing off. Bye, everyone.

[Jamie Eisenberg]

Paramount Podcast.

[Adam Azer]

Now streaming on Paramount Plus. It's an all new season of adventures.

[Jamie Eisenberg]

We have to stop this invasion, get into this shit.

[Adam Azer]

This crew is a team. We are going to find our way out of this.

[Heath Cummings]

Star Trek Strange New worlds.

[Adam Azer]

New season now streaming on Paramount Plus.