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Running Backs Preview Part Two: Complete ADP Review, Best and Worst Values (08/06 Fantasy Football Podcast)
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Host 1
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Host 2
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Host 3
This is Fantasy Football TODAY from CBS Sports.
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Host 2
What a play.
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Host 4
Can you believe this?
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Host 3
No, I can't. It's time to dominate your fantasy league.
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Host 2
Off to the races and he stays on his feet.
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Host 4
This is going to go the distance.
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Host 3
Now here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie and Heath.
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Host 2
Running backs Preview Part 2 Right now on Fantasy Football Today presented by BetMGM the Sportsbook. Born in Vegas, Adam, Heath and Jamie here we welcome you. If you're watching on YouTube, YouTube.com fantasy football today it is blue shirt day for two of us. Very similar blue, very nice. Giants blue we've got going on there. Heath, you look great.
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Host 3
I moved Tyrone Tracy up in my rankings last night and wanted to wear a shirt that reflected that since we're going to talk about him on the Running Back Preview Part 2, I thought.
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Host 4
You guys were wearing Scatter blue.
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Host 2
Very nice. When we were Talking about Scatter Boo's injury the other day, Dave iMed me and said he has a Scatter Boo boo. And it was funny.
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Host 4
I think.
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Host 2
I wish he would have said that on the air. So Shout out yeah, I'm going to start by asking you some quick questions about Round 1 running backs. Not all of them. I don't think I'm going to ask you about Saquon Barkley. We've talked about him a lot. We will. We will get to him. But here's some Just some quick questions. Why is Bijan Bijan Robinson RB1? He averaged 19.9 PPR fantasy points per game last season. That is the lowest in eight years for next season's RB1 and ADP. So Heath, why do you think Bijon Robinson has climbed to number one in adp?
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Host 3
Because the guys that you could make the argument for over him have more concerns and the first few picks of your draft, maybe even the first round or the one place that you should be a little bit more concerned with the floor. Saquon Barkley. We've been over those concerns a million times. Devon Achan had injury problems two years ago and then two had injury problems last year. Jir Gibbs hasn't been as good as Bajan Robinson when David Montgomery is healthy and he lost Ben Johnson, Christian McCaffrey obviously Ashton Genty rookie Derrick Henry old. So he's just the safest elite running back.
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Host 2
Jamie, what kind of split? I actually want both of you to weigh in on this one. What kind of split are you expecting in the Detroit backfield? Because this story with Jameer Gibbs, if there were no David Montgomery, I feel confident Jameer Gibbs would be the 1.1 overall pick. With David Montgomery, he averaged about 19 PPR fantasy points per game last year, which would have been RB5 per game. Very good, but not super elite. Are you expecting more Gibbs than what we usually get this year? Jamie?
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Host 4
I am. I'm expecting a little bit more in the passing game as well, so I think that's going to help him in PPR. So he goes from potentially 52 catches to north of 60 based on how I think they're going to use him in the new offense. And then you have the the potential of maybe getting more carries based on Montgomery and his injury concerns from the last couple of years. Plus being a little bit older gives now going into year three. So I am expecting Gibbs to get more work this year and he can see it.
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Host 3
Yeah, I don't, I'm not really. Because like if, if you were just expecting what he's did last year, then you're factoring in a three game absence from Montgomery.
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Host 4
I think.
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Host 3
And I hate to expect more than that.
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Host 2
Oh, well, he was number one per game last year. Or. No, he was number one overall last year because Barkley sat out week 18. I think he was number two per game. So I think basically what he did all of last year, including the last three games without Montgomery would justify a top five pick. Right? Yes, yes.
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Host 3
But I don't, I. It's also like David Montgomery hasn't missed three games every year of his career. It's also possible David Montgomery plays 17 games. So.
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Host 2
Right.
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Host 3
Like there are some. If that happens, then I think Jameer Gibbs could be worth the 12th pick.
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Host 2
So where do you have him? As I know you're the lower guy.
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Host 3
Seven.
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Host 2
Okay. Seven overall. Not RB seven. All right, next question. About round one. Running backs, rank these in order of worry.
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Host 4
Yeah.
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Host 2
Your most concerned to your least concern. Saquon Barclays workload. Over 480 touches last year. Derrick Henry's age, Christian McCaffrey's injury history. Jamie, you can start.
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Host 4
Christian McCaffrey's Injury History. What's the Saquon Barkley one?
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Host 2
His workload.
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Host 4
Saquon Barkley's workload. Derrick Henry's age.
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Host 3
I'll go McCaffrey, Henry Barkley in terms of worry.
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Host 2
And then the last one is, who do you prefer? Ashton Genty or Devon Hn?
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Host 4
Heath Hn, Jamie Hn also.
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Host 2
Okay, why, and what is it that we're. What the people are missing about achan? Because his ADP is 12th on fantasy pros. I think it's something like 14th on football guys in our consensus rankings. He's, I want to say third overall. I'll double check on that. Overall, what are people missing about Achan?
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Host 4
The logo next to his name?
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Host 2
Is that it? You think they're missing the splits?
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Host 4
Look, look at the names that he's around. You can mix these guys up in a lot of different orders. A lot of people still have Barkley one, you know, so it's, it's the love of Jameer Gibbs, it's the hope that McCaffrey's back. It's the expectation of what Genti could be. It's the seasons that Bijan, Bijan and, and Barkley just had. So it's I, I and, and it's Henry's resume, you know, so I, I think when you look at those seven running backs, there's going to be a lot of personal preference. And I think anytime I know when I post the results of our drafts and Heath has obviously been the one that's taken HN the earliest. You know, I, I think when we see him in the middle of the first round, certainly the end of the first round, we don't get a lot of pushback. When we see him, he takes. I know there was one draft where he took him in top three. That's when we start to get the, oh, my God, why is a Chan going there? And then when you pull back the curtain, then you reveal why and it's like, oh, I didn't realize he was that good with two. I didn't realize that he actually led the position in reception. I didn't realize that maybe he has this much upside and I should be considering round one versus Round two. So it's just a matter of, I think, you know, looking at him by comparison to all these other great players. It's the same with the top bend receivers. You know, I think once you get past the top three, all those guys could be in the mix for the top five. You know, Nico and Thomas and Puka and all those guys. It's the same type of conversation. So if you think that Puka, I'm sorry, you think that Tua is going to stay healthy, then HN does have an opportunity to be the number one running back this year based on how those two have operated together. So, you know, if you, if you do believe in the Dolphins and you believe that they're going to have a successful season because their quarterback stays healthy, HN has, if he stays healthy, the chance to be a monster.
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Host 3
I. Yeah, I think two things they're missing Azer stats. Of course, the first thing they're missing, and I feel sorry for anybody who's missing Azer stats in their life. It's a source of joy. And then the other thing is, I don't. I'm not even a believer in the Dolphins. I think that they might be the worst team in their division, but they're missing receiving upside. Like if they have to go 65 pass, it might be better for HN if they're running the ball more.
- [09:12]
Host 2
Yeah. So the, the Azer stat. Let me see if I have a. But that's just an Azer stat. A stat is that with Tua Tango by Loa healthy, Devon HN was on pace for 1,779 total yards, 17 touchdowns. He averaged a touchdown per game, 104 catches, 22.6 PPR. Fantasy points per game. You know, one person saying in the chat, and I think it's a good point, I don't like. He said, I don't like to predict injuries, but you know, HN scares me. Genti is a bull. So yeah, you just look at their body type. Genti does seem more likely to withstand the injuries, but, you know, but, but I guess the, you know, HN is like the, the cat, the receptions guy. He had 78 receptions last year and with Tua he was on pace for 104. I don't know that you can expect that.
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Host 3
But this could be, this could be Camaro. I mean, Genti's doesn't deserve to be mentioned in Derrick Henry's, but it could be Camara and Derrick Henry. Like it could be. Yeah. Stylistically. And it's not just last year's aether stat, but the year before he had two games where he played a combined nine snaps. One of them at the beginning of the year because he just wasn't a focal point yet and one of them because he got hurt. And so he was over 20 fantasy points per game the year before when he was healthy. I think the expectation should be 20 fantasy points per game for HN for as many games as he and two as they help the end. Okay, if that's 13 plus, then our rankings, right?
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Host 2
All right. Yeah. So he's fifth overall overall in our consensus rankings and he is RB2 in our consensus rankings. All right, so do some quick news and notes here. We're going to just basically go through ADP in a bit, but Keenan Allen signing with the Chargers for one year, $8.5 million. And I haven't been able to find the way it's structured. I'm hoping there is some incentives in there, you know, to get it to $8.5 million. That's a lot of money to pay a 33 year old coming off his worst season. But did you guys.
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Host 4
Not a lot of money.
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Host 2
It is a lot of money for a 33 year old coming off his worst season.
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Host 4
You should put a team that he's spent 11 seasons with.
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Host 2
That's wonderful. They think the Cowboys should have given Zeke $8 million last year. No, they not.
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Host 3
First off, that's rude.
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Host 4
I think what Keenan Allen will do for the Chargers is probably better than what Zeke did for the Cowboys.
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Host 2
I hope so.
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Host 3
Gigantic asterisk next to worst season of his career.
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Host 4
It.
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Host 2
But it was. It Was a really bad year for him.
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Host 3
But why, why has KEENAN Allen been a 68 catch percentage guy for his entire career and was 58 last year?
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Host 4
Just, just to put that in perspective in terms of worse here, it matched his worst year. So he had another 12.3 PPR point per game season which was his second year of his career. You also have to factor in. Yes, it was bad. He had four games last season at 32 years old over 20 PPR points.
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Host 2
Yeah, look, I said it on his live stream last night. I don't know that it was his fault. DJ Moore had the lowest yards per out run of his career. Romo Dunes, they had one of the lowest yards per outrun for any rookie in the last decade. Keenan Allen, lowest yards per outrun of his career. So I think it was a Chicago problem. But 33 year old receivers, 33 year old slot receivers like Keenan Allen, I think when you look at Larry Fitzgerald, when you look at Julian Edelman, they maybe age better than, you know, big physical outside guys or whatever. But did you. Just a quick question because we're going to talk about this tomorrow. Did you lower lad McConkey in your rankings?
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Host 4
Yes.
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Host 3
Projections, yes. Rankings, no. Because I had him a tear break behind him and so I. It's that whole thing about who's wide receiver 14, 15, 16 and I don't know, I don't really love him. So he's still 13.
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Host 4
For me I dropped him from 13 to 16. So I put him behind Devonte Adams, JSN and Garrett Wilson.
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Host 2
Okay. And Kyron Williams signed a three year deal worth $33 million, 23 million guaranteed. He led the NFL with 43% of his team's offensive touches in 2024 as his Kyron Williams. And if you were worried about that aspect of it then hopefully you are not worried anymore because he signed this three year extension. Matthew Stafford's back injury is a maintenance issue according to Adam Schefter. They're optimistic about him being ready for week one. Shadur Sanders is going to start Cleveland's first preseason game. That's not necessarily a good thing for sure. Sanders, yeah, but we knew he wasn't leading the competition. That seems like it's Flaccos most exciting.
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Host 3
Preseason game of the year.
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Host 2
Why?
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Host 3
We get to see Shador Sanders for a half. We get to see Dylan Sampson, we get to see Harold Bannon without the top wide receivers. It's going to be awesome.
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Host 2
All right. Cam Ward's going to play in the preseason opener. Devin Neil, rookie running back for The Saints. He's out a couple of weeks with a hamstring injury. And George Kittle wants his smelling salts back. He is upset that the NFL is banning ammonia and smelling salts. Have you guys ever used smelling salts?
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Host 4
No.
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Host 3
No. But what I'm reading is that they can ban the team from providing them. They can't ban the players from using them.
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Host 2
I saw that nuance, too. That is interesting.
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Host 3
Kiddo is just going to bring a little bag over. His own bag on the sideline.
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Host 2
He uses it every. Every drive before. Every drive. I've. I've had it once. I gave blood and nearly passed out and I got smelling salts. They're insane. They are. Holy cow.
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Host 3
I gave blood and nearly passed out. It's probably the most. Adam.
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Host 2
Yeah, I know.
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Host 3
That is perf.
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Host 4
I know.
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Host 2
I thought I was fine. Then I was walking out of the blood mobile and it was. It was, you know, very hot day in Florida and I got outside and I turned right around and I went back in the bloodmobile and I was like. And they insisted me. Anyway, let's.
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Host 4
Let's.
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Host 2
Yeah, we could get into. We can get into ADP here. Let's do it. Why not? All right, so what do you guys want to say about round one? So it's Bijan Robinson. This is fantasy pros, PPR, ADP. He's got the second highest ADP. He's basically tied with Saquon Barkley. They're both at 2.8. So you got Chase with his. ADP is one, and then Barkley. Oh, I don't know what. Oh, you're looking at running back. Okay, so you can throw that up. That's fine. If you're going to hear different numbers from me than what you're going to see on that screen, if you just look at running back, the ADPs change a little bit. But if you look at Overall, Bijan is 2.8, Barkley's 2.8. Gibbs fifth. McCaffrey is ninth, Henry is 10th, Genty is 10th and Achan is 12th. So that would be six running backs in the first round. Robinson, Barkley, Gibbs. In the top five. McCaffrey ninth, Henry tenth, Achan twelfth. Jamie, your read on the first round ADP.
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Host 4
I mean, as I said before, when you're looking at these guys, I think it's. It's pretty impressive how good these guys can be. And so it's a matter of, do you want to start your team with a running back, which someone is your preferred preference? Because as we know, people are going to pass on McCaffrey because of what happened last year, people are going to pass on Henry because of his age. People are going to pass on gives because of Montgomery Barkley because of the workload. So it's a matter of, you know, what pick you have, what you think you can get in round two, and then how you want to start, you know, building your roster here. So the one that's a little surprising to me just based on PPR is Henry. Not that I don't think he's going to be great again, but he's just not going to catch as many passes as these other guys. So for the most part though, I agree. You know, I think, and I think hn should be around one pick.
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Host 3
Yeah, I, I think from our like the whole group's perspective, even though I'm the high guy, I'm safe. One's a little too high for me. McCaffrey and Henry are also a little too high.
- [17:06]
Host 2
All right, we're going to come back to this discussion in a moment. I want to offer you something wonderful right now. It's on BetMGM. If you haven't signed up for BETMGM yet, use the bonus code fantasy. You're going to get up to a fifteen hundred dollar first bet offer on your first wager with BetMGM. So here's how it works. Download the BetMGM app, sign up using the bonus code fantasy. Deposit at least 10 bucks. That's it. Just 10 bucks. Place your first wager on any game and you're going to receive up to fifteen hundred dollars in bonus bets if your bet loses. Just make sure that you use the bonus code fantasy when you sign up on BetMGM. Quick break here. We'll be right back to talk about running back versus wide receiver in round one. You know, you go Justin Jefferson and Jameer Gibbs for example. We'll talk about that after this.
- [17:50]
Host 5
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- [19:51]
Host 3
Are you feeling more fulfilled now that.
- [19:52]
Host 2
You'Re back to work on August 15th? No. I need a vacation.
- [19:58]
Host 3
See the movie that critics are saying is an awesome look at that crowd pleasing fist pumping all out brawl of a film.
- [20:07]
Host 2
You're right about that. They're coming after our family. Go fix this. Oh my. Nobody 2 rated rude holding in theaters August 15th. Okay, so again, round one is Robinson, Barkley, Gibbs, McCaffrey, Henry Genty and Achan. Although it appears that I didn't say Ashton Genti's name, did I? Yep, I skipped him. So there are seven running backs. I apologize. Robinson, Barkley, Gibbs, McCaffrey, Henry, Genty a Chan so my. That was stupid of me. My apologies. Seven first round running backs. Do you guys have a strong take on these guys should go after these receivers and anything like that or you know, it's kind of a a good jumbled mess in the first round. Just in terms of choosing wide receivers.
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Host 3
And running backs, I would take chase over all of them. Lamb over all of them. Besides Bijan and then I've got the next, the top five running backs and then a lot of wide receivers. Before you get to McCaffrey and Henry.
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Host 4
For me, the only two that I do not have in the first round currently are Genti and Henry. Genti is like 13 or 14th overall for me. So just outside, basically, if you have the turn, you're taking him either 12 or 13 for me. And then Henry is like a pick or two behind that as well.
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Host 2
Okay. And we kind of talked about if you have a pick late in round one, you might be more likely to find a wide receiver that you like in round two, you know, because you might be talking about Nico Collins, Brian Thomas Jr. AJ Brown or Josh Jacobs. And you might say, well, Josh Jacobs is not in the elite tier, whereas at least Nico and Brian Thomas are closer to the elite tier or in the elite tier. So that might influence your round one pick. Maybe you're more likely to go running back if you so desire to leave round one and two with a running back and a wide receiver. Okay. Unless you guys have anything to say. You know what, Jamie, you mentioned Derek Henry on Monday's network show is just somebody that we kind of just have taken. I have taken for granted a little bit and haven't focused enough on him. What do you want to say about Derek Henry? He was the number three running back per game, basically tied in full PPR. He had 19 catches. Rob Bijon Robinson, Bijan had 60. And they averaged the same amount of PPR fantasy points per game. And then let me give you this stat. When they didn't score touchdowns, if I can find that, when they didn't score a touchdown last year, Bijan Robinson averaged something like half a point more per game than Derrick Henry. So that, that really stood out to me. He wasn't touchdown dependent. But what do you think about Henry?
- [23:04]
Host 4
I think he said it best on yesterday's show, if I'm not mistaken. Or maybe it was another show. But in any event, like, I'm just tired of betting against him at this point. It's. It's just until he, I'm assuming, probably breaks down because, you know, he's not slowing down. You know, who knows how long he could continue to do this. But he keeps himself in great shape. He's now on the perfect team for his skill set because even with the lack of receptions, they're going to be either in games or winning games almost every time. That's just been Harbaugh's format formula success. Lamar Jackson's format formula Success, you know, like, they're just a great team. And that's been when he's been at his best, at least in the last several years. You know, going back to Tennessee. When they were losing, he was terrible. When they were winning, he was great. And so he just has the opportunity to continue to defy Father Time until we see otherwise. So I hope he doesn't get hurt and break down. You know, the one time that it happened to him, he broke his foot, he couldn't play half the season. So if you want to take him in round one and you don't love those receivers or to your point, Adam, like, you know, if you think I need to guarantee myself one of those top seven running backs and then I could still take a Brian Thomas, Nico Collins, you know, we, we've seen a Monroe St. Brown fall into round two as well. Drake, London, you know, whoever, whoever cut off is A.J. brown. It's not a bad way to, you know, build your roster. So the lack of receptions don't hurt him. The, the touchdowns even at this point, you know, not necessarily something that he has to have. He's just such a freak of nature that he's going to be in the mix to be the one, the running back leader and the touchdown leader, I think on a yearly basis.
- [24:36]
Host 2
Okay, round one is a very running back heavy round with seven them off the board. We have three off the board in round two, maybe four. Let's see, we have Josh Jacobs, 17th. Yeah, we'll say four because Kyron falls in at the turn. These are RBs eight through 11. Josh Jacobs 17th, Jonathan Taylor 20th, Bucky Irving 22nd, Kyron Williams 24th. Chase Brown's going to be in round three, but we could, we could include him in this discussion because obviously he's in this tier. But Heath, do you think it's a, it's a natural separation there, first of all, between the round one guys up to HN and Genti, and then the round two guys, Jacobs, Taylor, Bucky Kyron, and then Chase Brown, maybe.
- [25:20]
Host 3
Yeah, yeah. I think that I've got a pretty big gap now. I've been the high guy on Kyren and I'll probably remain to be the high guy on him. I think projections wise, he's very close to that top tier. And again, I, I don't have seven running backs in round one. I've got five, but I think Kyron should be right there at the top of this group and in round two.
- [25:44]
Host 2
Okay, so how do you guys see those four? If you. Again, if you want to include Chase Brown? We can.
- [25:51]
Host 4
Yeah, you have to include.
- [25:51]
Host 2
All right, so he's technically round three, but where is he in round three? He's 27th overall. We love that value, at least. Jamie and Heath, do you also love that value?
- [25:59]
Host 3
I think I have him at 27. Okay, so I'm fine with that value.
- [26:02]
Host 2
All right, so then, you know, Jamie, it's Jacobs, Taylor, Bucky, Kyron, Chase Brown. We've got some provenness. We've got some kind of exciting day. Three guys in Chase Brown and Bucky Irving break down these five running backs.
- [26:18]
Host 4
Jacobs, I think, is just. I brought him up on the show too. Like, it just feels like we're taking him for granted a little bit based on what he did last year. You know, he's had one really down season and it was the holdout year, and otherwise he's been pretty consistent with his production. And so now Marshawn Lloyd is hurt again. You know, this is one of the. I think. I don't want to say surprise. This could be one of the surprise offenses. It just was the way last year unfolded for them with Jordan Love getting hurt, they didn't throw the ball as much. They maybe weren't as prolific as some other teams. I think they have the opportunity to get back to that. They're certainly going to be one of the better teams running the ball. He's. He's just like an auto select for me in round two. And so like Keith said, you know, Kyro's at the top of the list for him. I feel like Jacobs is. It's easy for me to say Jacobs is the top of the next tier, you know, so after the first seven, I just like the opportunity for him. Like, he. He doesn't feel like as maybe explosive, which this is going to sound strange to say, but like as explosives, maybe Chase Brown could be, or Bucky Irving could be, or even some of the guys ahead of him. You know, we're getting some comments in the chat that, that Jacob should be ahead of Genti, and you can make a strong argument for that, you know, because at least you've seen Jacobs do it and we're hoping Genti's going to do it. So I think in the case of Jacob's easy round two, Taylor, the receptions are not going to be there. It's a little bit of a mystery of how the quarterback play will unfold. But in any event, you know, Taylor is a safe, you know, round two pick. Bucky and. And Chase Brown are the wild cards. And if they hit to the level that we saw last year when they were at their peak. They probably should be round one picks. But again, you know, you, you're hearing the Bucks don't want to necessarily go back to the end of season workload with Bucky Irving right away. They want to be a little bit more cautious. So you're going to see Rashad White and in the case of Chase Brown, you heard from their office coordinator, they're going to use him that way. I just don't understand why people are not buying into it more. Not that 27th overall is a bad spot for him, but to me feels like more upside than Kyron Williams, more upside than Bucky Irving, more upside than Jonathan Taylor. So that's why I have him ranked. Yeah.
- [28:18]
Host 2
Good.
- [28:19]
Host 3
Making the case for Kyron at the top is just that. Last year Taylor, Jacobs and Kyron were separated by less than a half a point per game. The year before, Kyron was much better than all these guys we were talking about second best in fantasy on a per game basis. And the team that's given him 21 touches per game each of the last two years just gave him three more years. So I, I don't really think we see a big step back and I think that's what separates maybe Taylor and Jacobs. Also. Jacobs had, maybe has one other season as good as what he did last year. But we've seen him, we know he's a great NFL running back. Taylor, same thing. Great draft capital has had these types of seasons before was actually better than Jacobs and Kyron last year. Brown and Bucky are day three guys that we saw it from for about half a season. And so it was more explosive than the other three, maybe not than Taylor at his best. But do you, do you want to bet on the, the eight game sample of the two day three guys or the two season sample for Chiron? The multiple season sample for Taylor and Jacobs.
- [29:34]
Host 4
I guess the question would be though is if we're going to attach day three capital to those guys. Kyron was also a day three guy that got an opportunity to be a, a lead running back on his team and has run away with it. And the hope would be is that Bucky and Chase Brown do the same thing and their environments right now. Now you could say no, Tristan worse. And maybe the offensive line for the Bucks isn't going to be as good and the competition for Bucky is, is a little bit more concerning. And Chase Brown. Look, there's maybe some offensive line questions, I don't know but I Think just in the way that these guys are. And, and I don't know where you come out on the heath, but like, they're all really close for me in my rankings. Not like I'm, I'm. This is not an anti Chiron Right. Discussion. So it's not, you know, don't I hope I need anybody to take it that way. I just think like at this point I'm throwing out draft capital, you know, so, because Kyron has proven he can do that, I think Bucky's going to prove he can do that. I think Chase Brown's going to prove he can do that. So I don't really worry about that anymore. They're, they're all going to kind of be in the same scenario here and it's just a matter of will the Rams to whatever degree because, you know, you said last year Chiron was third in touches per game behind Barkley and Jacobs or I'm sorry, Parkman Taylor, I had him average four touches per game first.
- [30:57]
Host 2
Well, no, I, the stat that I saw, Kyron, I Read it on cbsports.com he led, he led the NFL in percentage of his team's touches. That's what it was.
- [31:05]
Host 4
Okay, sorry. But in terms of touches per game, Barkley had more touches per game and Taylor had more touches per game. The year before he was number one and it was basically the same number. So he's going to be around 21 touches per game. If they continue to do that, will they take some work off of his plate? Not again. To make it and lower Chiron be worried about Kyron. I just think like Chase Brown's headed in, in a direction that I think could be better than Kyron. And at this point, I like Bucky slightly better than Kyron, but very close. They're, they're back to back Americans.
- [31:37]
Host 3
And just to finish up the day three conversation, I think Jamie's right to say they're all three day three guys. I'm just more likely to believe the day three guy that's done it for two years than the day three guys that did it for three months half a season.
- [31:49]
Host 2
But yeah, that's a good point. I, I mean, I gotta say I have watched a decent amount of Bucky Irving tape and I watched some more this morning. I'm completely blown away by him.
- [32:02]
Host 3
He's incredible.
- [32:03]
Host 2
Yeah. And you know, I mentioned a few names of day three guys who averaged as many or more yards per carry than Bucky Irving and were drafted kind of high the next year and they were Kerry On Johnson, Andre Ellington and Thomas Rawls. Okay. The different, one of the differences between the two of them is that they combined those three guys in their rookie years for something like four carries of 30 or more yards and Irving had seven. He, he's not super fast, but he's not slow and he's, I don't know, I think he's amazing and I really struggle with this decision. So let's bring up a Twitter poll here real quick. I asked who was your favorite running back in this group in ppr, Bucky Irving, Jonathan Taylor, Kyron Williams or Chase Brown. I did not include Josh Jacobs because he's in adp sort of clearly ahead of them. But I mean, I really struggle with this. I go, man, if I take Kyron Williams, I feel like I like all of them. But with Bucky and Chase Brown, they are, they seem a little more exciting to me. But here's what the poll said. Bucky Irving 27%, Taylor 20%, Kyron 18%, Chase Brown 35%. So that's, that's pretty telling. He's last in ADP. He's your favorite.
- [33:21]
Host 4
Yep.
- [33:22]
Host 2
Does what changes if it's half ppr? It's Bucky Taylor, Kyron and Chase Brown.
- [33:28]
Host 4
No, I go to Taylor.
- [33:31]
Host 2
Okay.
- [33:31]
Host 3
So I, I got these guys ranked right now. I think Kyron Bucky Chase or Kyron Bucky Taylor Chase, half ppr. I'd probably be similar.
- [33:42]
Host 2
Okay, and for the non PPR folks out there, what changes in non ppr?
- [33:47]
Host 3
Kyron Taylor, Bucky Chase, Bucky.
- [33:51]
Host 2
One concern I have with Bucky Irving is that he does not play on third down. One of the lowest third down route participation rates among any relevant running. He's basically Derrick Henry in that reg. He did have the fourth most catches on first or second down. And I do think they will design. They'll get it. I watch. I mean it's screen passes design plays for him, but he doesn't play on third down. So it will limit. He had three third down catches last year. That will limit his catch upside a little bit. And I don't see why they'd go away from Rashad White in that area. But maybe it changes a little bit. Maybe he gets more in on third down. Anyway, these are really good running backs and we're excited about them.
- [34:26]
Host 4
They're going to use Rashad White. That's the. Yeah.
- [34:29]
Host 2
Okay. Round three running backs, there's only three of them and that is Chase Brown early in round three, 27th overall and we've got after him. I think It's Breece Hall. It's James Cook and Breece Hall. Chase Brown. James Cook, Breeze Hall. Let's eliminate Chase Brown from this discussion and let's do rounds three and four here. Okay? James Cook mid round three, but with the holdout or the hold in, that could fall Breece Hall, 33rd, 34th overall. And then we're looking at Alvin Camara, Ken Walker, Omarion Hampton, Chuba Hubbard, and James Connor. So from this, if you're looking at this list, just add Connor at the very end on YouTube. James Cook, Breeze Hall, Alvin Camara, Ken Walker, Omarion Hampton, Chuba Hubbard, James Connor, Heath. How should I feel about this group of seven running backs?
- [35:30]
Host 3
I think that there's an ups. Most of these guys still have the upside of everything goes right to finish as a low end RB1.
- [35:37]
Host 4
All.
- [35:38]
Host 3
Almost all of these guys have some sort of concern. I prefer Walker and Hall and I'm quite a bit lower on Camara and Connor. But like, that makes sense with what we said about Derek Henry in. In the earlier segment. Like those older guys, I'm a little bit more concerned with, but I. Walker and hall are the two guys I'd take in round three.
- [36:02]
Host 2
And.
- [36:02]
Host 3
And Chuba's next for me.
- [36:05]
Host 2
Okay, Jamie, I'm going to give the names one more time and you give me your thoughts. James Cook, Bree Hall, Alvin Camara, Ken Walker, Omarion Hampton, Chuba Hubbard.
- [36:14]
Host 4
My two favorites. Walker by far. You know, I'm glad that he came back to practice dealing with a sore foot, you know, so clearly there's gonna. Anytime he gets hurt is gonna scare people, you know, based on what his track record was missing all the time that he missed last year. I get it. It's. It's gonna make people a little bit sketchy to take him in round three, which is probably why his ADP is in. In round four. Hampton's the one that's next for me. And. And obviously we have a lot of things at play here. You have a backup running back, maybe a 1A in Najee Harris. We don't know when he's going to return to practice. This eye injury is really, really puzzling. Just how it's all playing out. So hopefully he's fine and can be a factor, but it's giving Hampton the opportunity to prove himself. The biggest issue is though, he's in a Greg Roman offense that they don't throw the ball to the running backs as much as we would like. And so will he even be the guy playing on obvious passing downs? Can he get to north of 30 receptions. You know, I think that's a good number, but that's probably not much more than that. I don't know what you haven't projected for Heath, but the, the reception total is what scares me more, more than anything with him, the older running backs, you know, so I don't want to put Hubbard in the older running backs, but I think once you get past those two guys, for me this is now where I put James Cook, you know, so he's now around 4 pick. I just nervous about the, the obvious regression from a touchdown standpoint. And then now you have this Holden situation where who knows how it's going to play itself out. You know, I think round four is probably where it's farthest he will fall unless he's going to miss game time, which I don't think will be the case. But that's about the, the lowest I would go from. It's early round four. So when you get to Camara and, and Hubbard and Connor, like they feel like they're pretty good fallback options in this scoring format. You know, obviously half and, and non ppr. Kamara is going to struggle. I feel like Hubbard's another guy. You know, Dave brought him up on, on the names we're not talking about enough. Like, I know I have a little bit of concern and I know you brought it up earlier this off season about is he just the guy that kind of ended up in a great situation? You know, is he, is he that good? Well, he was that good last year. And again his competition, Rico Dowdle and Trevor Etienne, how much will they take him off the field? I, I don't think very much so. Hubbard may be one of the more undervalued players. Forget about just running backs, undervalued players that it's just like, okay, I think I'll take him when he's there. Don't really love it. By the end of the season you'll probably be like, oh, I'm glad I have him on my team.
- [38:32]
Host 2
Yeah, Chuba Hubbard I did bring up. Is he just the guy? When I look at this list of running backs, he's the one that scares me the most as being just the guy because he was in his career. I mean, look, if you just look, go back a year ago, they bring in Miles Sanders, they draft Jonathan, they draft, sorry, John Brooks. They once upon a time had Jonathan Stewart, they draft Jonathan Brooks. I don't think Chuba Hubbard was necessarily in their long term plans. And then everything changed for him and he Had a great year. He was RB9 per game after the first two weeks of the season. Remember the first two weeks of the season. Bryce Young played. He was horrible. He got benched and he. Dalton came in, he played okay. Bryce Young came in later. He played pretty well. And Chuba Hubbard was RB9 per game. But that wasn't the first time in Chuba Hubbard's career that he got an opportunity. At the end of 2023 he also did and he wasn't that good. I think he was like RB21ish per game. So I guess I have it right here. He got the last, the last 12 games of 2023. Juba Hubbard became his starting running back. He was on pace for 288 carries, 38 catches. He averaged 3.7 yards per carry, 12.4 PPR fantasy points per game, which is going to be right around RB24 per game every season. So how much do you buy the jump? You know, two. Two years in a row he had big work. One year he was RB24, one year was RB9.
- [39:56]
Host 3
I think part of the question is do you expect the Panthers offense to be improved and it wasn't great last year, but improved like it was last year, especially in the second half or disastrous like it was in 2023? I. I just think it's interesting comparing Chuba to James Cook. He said Cook's going a little bit ahead of him, right?
- [40:18]
Host 2
About a full round ahead of him. Based on this adp, they were about.
- [40:21]
Host 3
A half a point per game different last year with Cook scoring 18 touchdowns to Hubbard's 11. Hubbard had 43 more carries and 11 more catches. I. I think even without the holdout concerns, I. Well, I know I did. I had Hubbard ahead of Cook and with the holdout concerns, it should be pretty easy to put Hubbard out of Cook.
- [40:42]
Host 4
I think the one thing though to. To your question, Adam, like, can he do it again? You can make a lot of comparisons between Chuba Hubbard and Kyren Williams because a lot of people will question is Kyron Williams that talented but he's in such a great situation. And Chuba Hubbard, the situation got so much better the last couple of years. Yeah, because of Canalis and his system. But mostly last year with the offensive line, like they really went out and said we are going to make our offensive line good. And they did. And so the only question for me would be is are they going to give some work to other guys? And I know Rico Dow compensation tells you not so much. And Trevor ETN Draft Capital Tells you not so much. I'm just curious to see if they will because who knows if they wanted to last year and it was just Miles Sanders and what he looked like. I mean, clearly, like to your point, they drafted Jonathan Brooks. The hope was that he was going to be the running back, the future. And you know, for that kid's sake, maybe he is. But then they give him the, they give harbor the contract extension and he sort of just took off from there like he. And he hasn't looked back yet. So it just feels like this is a great spot for him in drafts and you know, just based on the adp, forget about how we have him ranked, you know, so like he's taking him over. James Cook, for example, when you start to just stack up these players, if you go, I don't say 0 RB because taking a running back around 4 is not really 0 RB strategy. But like if you, if you play in a, in a two running back, two receiver league to come away with stud running back, round one, two receivers, rounds two and round three and then you get two, but hub around four, it's a pretty good start, I would say.
- [42:13]
Host 2
I would ask you guys though, if you look at this group again of James Cook, Breeze Hall, Camara, Ken Walker, Omarion Hampton, Chuba Hubbard, how would you feel about coming away And James Connor, how would you feel about coming away with two of them if you started, you know, wide receiver, tight end or wide receiver, wide receiver. Would you draft two of these guys in rounds three and four?
- [42:32]
Host 4
I, I wouldn't be opposed to it, you know, if it's the right to, you know, so Breeze hall is somebody I don't draft a lot of because I'm concerned with, you know, Justin Fields and the, the, the talk just from everything Aaron Glenn has said and now the Braylon Allen news of, you know, him maybe being in the David Montgomery role if it's the Detroit offense. So I just don't draft him in this spot. Like if he's there around four, I would take pre sale. I wouldn't take him in round three in ppr. Yeah, Camara Walk. Like if you tell me I come away just based on my rankings. Camara or Hampton and then Hubbard or, or Camara or, or hall, you know, in, in the fourth round, then yeah, I'm fine with it.
- [43:09]
Host 3
All right, well again, Walker's part of this group, right?
- [43:13]
Host 2
Yes.
- [43:14]
Host 3
So if I, yeah, if I got Ken Walker as my RB1 and one of these guys is my RB2 and I've got elite wide receivers or an elite wide receiver and elite tight end. Yeah, I'm, I'm okay with that.
- [43:24]
Host 2
I'd like to talk a little bit more about Ken Walker, but we're gonna have a super long show. But that's okay, right? Let's take a break. Let's take a break.
- [43:31]
Host 4
Why don't you just factor in Walker and Charbonnet and then you kill both of them?
- [43:37]
Host 2
Yeah, yeah. I mean, look, Charbonnet is obviously super high end handcuffs. Walker has to be more efficient. He has to be. And will their offensive line be good enough? I think it's a big concern. So anyway, we'll talk about that when we come back on Fantasy football. Today.
- [43:54]
Host 6
On WhatsApp, no one can see or hear your personal messages. Whether it's a voice call message or sending a password to WhatsApp, it's all just this. So whether you're sharing the streaming password in the family chat, we're trading those late night voice messages that could basically become a podcast. Your personal messages stay between you, your friends and your family. No one else, not even us. WhatsApp message privately with everyone. This episode is brought to you by State Farm. Checking off the boxes on your to do list is a great feeling. And when it comes to checking off coverage, a State Farm agent can help you choose an option that's right for you. Whether you prefer talking in person on the phone or using the award winning app, it's nice knowing you have help finding coverage that best fits your needs. Like a good neighbor. State Farm is there.
- [44:48]
Host 2
Okay. Yeah. So Ken Walker. Ken Walker has had stretches in his career where he's been so good. You know, basically first round good, maybe second round good. But here's where he's finished. Per game in full PPR, 17th, 20, 1st and 12th in half, PPR, 16th, 20th and 13th in non PPR, 14th, 17th and 16th. His best stretch was probably his rookie season after Rashad Penny got hurt. His last 11 games, he was a top 10 running back per game. First five games of last year, Ken Walker averaged 22.3 PPR fantasy points per game. But then he averaged fewer than 12 points per game in his last six and he only played 11 games. He does get injured a lot. His yards per carry keeps getting worse. 3.7 yards per carry last season hasn't really been a third down guy, hasn't been a two minute drill guy. So somehow he was on pace for 71 catches last year. But why you guys had Ken Walker as number one in this group, ahead of Cook, ahead of Hall, Camara, Hampton Chubbard and Connor Heath. Why?
- [45:52]
Host 3
I think that new offensive coordinator Clint Kubiak will improve the run game efficiency at least a little bit. And I think that like Ken Walker has to be more efficient than he was in the last, what, six games last year? Certainly before those last six games, he was averaging 4.4 yards per carry for his career. And in the first six games of last year or first five games of last year, he was averaging 4.7 yards per attempt. So the, the bad year last year in terms of efficiency was a really awful, dreadful six weeks where he never averaged more than four yards per carry. But we've seen enough evidence, I think, that Ken Walker has the ability. Somebody commented the injury history scares him. And if you're worried about injury history, I think that's a very valid point. He's had a hard time staying healthy, but we know he's a home run hitting running back. Everything we've heard this off season is that he's the, the, the lead running back and they're going to run more. So I think there's a chance if you can stay healthy for maybe 280, 300 Dutchess.
- [47:03]
Host 2
Okay, all right, let's. Let's wrap it up there.
- [47:07]
Host 4
We got 46 catches last year too, in 11 games.
- [47:10]
Host 2
On pace for 71. I think I said, yeah, 71 catches. Okay, so James Conner, we haven't really gotten to. I think it's worth noting that James Conner left two games early with an injury last year or. Yeah, less than 30% of the snaps in those two games. You take away those two games, James Conner was on pace for 1,765 total yards, 50 catches and 11 touchdowns. Really, really good stuff. His metrics, the last two years in Arizona have been awesome. It looks like one of the best running backs in football.
- [47:43]
Host 3
And I know we're all laughing about it, but we've now heard the coach, the player, and both the players I think, say that Trey Benson's going to get more work this year. Nobody seems to believe it and I don't. I haven't really adjusted my projections either. But like, Trey Benson was a good prospect and did improve as the year went on. And Connor is older, so I think it's at least a possibility. It's certainly something they keep saying is going to happen.
- [48:08]
Host 2
Let's go to rounds five and six in ADP, and that would be starting with RB20 Joe Mixon, who I took in round six last night and Jamie chastised me for it.
- [48:20]
Host 4
Well, there was a Reason for that though.
- [48:21]
Host 2
Yeah. By the way with. Yeah. Somebody asked if I said Chubbard and yes I did. That was, that was on purpose. That's a nickname for Chuba Hubbard. Just easier to say. Joe Mixon, DeAndre Swift, Heath. Do you like DeAndre Swift issue.
- [48:37]
Host 3
DeAndre Swift's fantastic value.
- [48:40]
Host 2
David Montgomery. Those are round five guys, mixing Swift and Montgomery. Mixon's ADP is a little bit hard to gauge because you got to figure it's falling. It might be more like round six now. Travion Henderson, RJ Harvey, Aaron Jones. We have any more in round six? I think we do. Right. Caleb Johnson I believe is in there. Let's find Aaron Jones. And Isaiah Pacheco is after Aaron Jones, Caleb Johnson and that would be it. So it starts with mixing, then Swift, then David Montgomery, Travion Henderson, R.J. harvey. Isaiah Pacheco is in there somewhere. Aaron Jones, Isaiah Pacheco and Caleb Johnson. So we have rookies, three rookies in there. We have a lot of veterans. Jamie, you like this range? Rounds 5 and 6, you like these.
- [49:35]
Host 4
Running backs Very much so, you know, especially if you know, you draft with more of a hero RB approach or certainly a 0 RB approach but and you don't necessarily have to pick a quarterback or tight end in the first four or five rounds. So you're, you know, stockpiling receivers in a three receiver league especially and then you get to this range as your RB2 like it's a great place to be. You know, these guys have so much upside. The rookies do. At least I think Swift does. There's no way I'm taking mixing here unless we get anything positive in the next couple of weeks that he's gonna guaranteed to be playing week one and no issues. I would not take Aaron Jones here.
- [50:15]
Host 2
There's also that you're not seeing on the screen. There's also Pacheco and Caleb Johnson.
- [50:21]
Host 4
Pacheco and Caleb Johnson I think are toward the back end of this group. But yes, this again you have to trust that Harvey and, and Henderson and Caleb Johnson are going to lead their backfield at some point this season and hopefully for a significant stretch of the season. But again if they do, I think they're going to run away with it because of how good they could potentially be. So yes, I think there's a lot to like about this group. It's also clearly there's a lot of flaws. So this is, you know, going to be where the, the dead zone is. You know. Now shift a little bit where this is clearly the, the range of these guys. But, you know, again, if you load up on some of these receivers, look at the receivers that are on the board here. You know, Cortland Sutton and. And Devonte Smith and Xavier Worthy. There's lots of like, there's also lots of fear. So I think there's as much upside with the running backs as the receivers and maybe more.
- [51:07]
Host 3
There might be three tiers represented for me in this huge, huge group of running backs. So for me, Swift and Henderson are round four guys and I would take them over Camara and Connor who were in the earlier group. And for me, I think Jamie probably said the same thing. But Jones, Johnson and Pacheco are more maybe end of round six guys that I, I don't want to take in the Harvey. I like mixing. I'm still fine in round six, but if we go another couple weeks, I probably won't be.
- [51:40]
Host 2
Joe Mixon's been a top 12 running back per game in six of the last seven seasons in half and full PPR. He's perennially underdrafted. That used to be Tyler Lockett too, but that everything does come to an end at some point. And Mixon's 29 years old with a preseason foot injury with perhaps the worst offensive line in the NFL. So certainly this could be the year where that run comes to an end. Pacheco was. Was RB20 at this point last year in ADP. And when did we have this conversation? Jamie on Express or last night? Yeah, so if you didn't hear last night on the live stream, I just.
- [52:15]
Host 4
Oh, it was both. It was actually both because you said that Pacheco was one of the guys you're drafting a lot.
- [52:20]
Host 2
I just don't really see what's all that different about his situation. I mean, it is different and that's why he's not being drafted in the second round. But the first two games of the season, he scored 15.8 points against Baltimore, great run defense and 16.1 fantasy points against Cincinnati. He had 17 touches and 24 touches. His whole season was derailed by injury. I really think Kareem Hunt is one of the worst running backs in the NFL. However, I do think he could factor in near the goal line. I think he has value there. I'm actually more concerned about Mitchell as. As a backup. I, you know, I, I'm sorry, I just. I don't see all the negatives. With Isaiah, Pacheco and Heath. You're saying he's barely around six pick for you?
- [52:59]
Host 3
Yeah, I just like we know how running backs generally score fantasy points or touchdowns and catches, and you have to trust a pretty small sample size to believe that Pacheco is going to do a lot of either. I think even when he's been the feature running back in, in 2024, he scored seven touchdowns in 14 games.
- [53:24]
Host 4
2023.
- [53:25]
Host 3
23, three. Yeah.
- [53:27]
Host 2
And no, he scored nine. He scored seven rushing, two receiving.
- [53:31]
Host 3
Okay, well, right. But that, that's really what matters. Like receiving touchdowns for running backs are about as random as it gets. And it's more based on the volume I think that you get. And I'm not convinced he's going to be a big catch guy. In fact, I don't think he will be a big catch guy and I don't think he will be a big touchdown guy. And the last time we saw him, I know there's some training camp videos where they're not allowed to tackle him, where he's looking really good. But the last time we saw him, he was terrible. Worse than, according to Adam, the worst running back in the NFL, one of.
- [54:02]
Host 2
The worst running backs.
- [54:04]
Host 3
And so make may, I think taking him in round six and feeling about him like you do, like that probably feels like a great win and it could turn out to that. But I can't get him up into the round four or five territory with guys that I think might be top 12 running backs or could be.
- [54:19]
Host 2
No, I wouldn't take him in round four or five, but I happily take Pacheco in round six, I guess earlier in round six than Heath would. I don't think we're too far apart. I just think there's more optimism on my side. But that's fine. David Montgomery is RB22 in ADP. He's outperformed that on a per game basis pretty substantially each of the last two years. So Montgomery was RB15 in full PPR. He was RB15 per game last year and in 2023 he was 15th per game. So. And even better than that in half and non ppr. So is he. Jamie, is Montgomery a steal in this fifth?
- [55:02]
Host 4
Yeah, I mean, he could be. It's, it's, it just depends on, I think. A, how is the offensive line going to hold up for Detroit, missing a couple guys? B, the or one guy at least missing the change in coordinator, you know, how much will that matter? I think the one thing that's in his favor is Dan Campbell. And what we've seen from Dan Campbell is he loves the physicality that David Montgomery brings and the touchdown potential and the touchdown scoring for that type of player in this offense for the last three seasons, it's hard to get past Jamal Williams three years ago, David Montgomery the last two years. It's basically a touchdown per game. Like it's hard to get past that. And so to Heath's point about the receiving touchdowns, like, you never want to predict this many touchdowns for anybody or project as many touchdowns for everybody. But like, I'd be shocked if he played a full season and did not have double digits and touchdowns. Like shocked. So if he stays healthy, that's the floor and then it's looking at at last year, does he have more a role in the passing game, which I think surprised a lot of people early in the season, how much will he actually continue to be the lead rusher and get as many carries or maybe more than Jameer Gibbs? So he's a great fallback option here. I think this is the appropriate spot for him. Late round five, early round six. You know, I think people are forgetting about him because he missed the last three games of the season and didn't really play much in the playoffs. And how good Jameer Gibbs could potentially be. But like he's not going away. You just have to think how many games will he might miss. And like he said, if he doesn't miss three games and he stays healthy for 15 plus, then we're looking at probably not as good of a Jameer Gibbs and we're looking at one of the better value picks for fantasy managers.
- [56:49]
Host 2
Okay, let's go to rounds.
- [56:51]
Host 4
And this was, you know, brought up. Johnny just brought this up in the, in the chat. We say this a lot. Montgomery misses times. Look how good Jameer gives. What if Jameer gives miss time?
- [57:00]
Host 2
Yeah, pretty good. Pretty, pretty, pretty good. Let's go to round seven and eight here. Starts with Tony Pollard. It's Pollard. Brian Robinson Jr. Tyrone Tracy Jr. Jalen Warren, Cam Scatter Boo and Quinn. Sean Judkins. I'd say at this point we should not be drafting Cam, Scatter Boo or Quinch on Judkins in round eight. Agreed.
- [57:21]
Host 4
Agreed. Judkins for sure. I think it's too, too soon for Scatter Boot. There are other guys that are probably a little low in ADP that I think we like a little more. Like Tank, Big Z for example. Right, but, yeah, but, but listen, Scatterbook, if he gets healthy and continues to build on way the training camp started, I don't think there should be that much separation between Tracy, like right now. Yes, it feels like there should be today with Scatter Boo hurt. But if. If he's as potentially legit as he was looking, like we could see Tracy, you know, losing work early in the season. Maybe middle of season for sure.
- [57:59]
Host 2
So round seven and eight running backs are Pollard, Brian Robinson, Jr. Tyrone, Tracy, Jalen Warren. We don't think Scatterboo and Quinchon Judkins can be there. Should be there. But with Pollard, Brian Robinson, Tyrone Tracy, Jalen Warren, Heath. Are any of these similar to some of the running backs we just heard in. In round six, which would be Pacheco, Aaron Jones, Caleb Johnson, RJ Harvey, Trayvon Henderson.
- [58:22]
Host 3
I have most of this group ahead of the bottom three that I said in the last group. So yeah, I think for me, Pollard's my favorite. And then Tracy and Warren are just at the bottom of the top 30 running backs.
- [58:37]
Host 2
You like them better than who?
- [58:38]
Host 3
Than Pacheco, Pacheco, Johnson, Aaron Jones is right in the mix with those guys.
- [58:44]
Host 2
Oh man, that's so interesting.
- [58:47]
Host 3
Like Tony Pollard versus Isaiah Pacheco. I think the argument for Pacheco is much better. Offense.
- [58:53]
Host 2
No, that's not my argument. My argument is that there were nine games that Pollard and Spears both played together last year when they were both healthy, didn't leave early, and Pollard was on pace for only 236 carries and 43 catches, which is nice. In the games where Pollard played without Spears or with Spears leaving early, he was on pace for 328 carries. I don't think people realize there was actually a pretty big split last year. And they keep talking about wanting to make it even more.
- [59:22]
Host 3
Even 236 carries though. I mean, and I know Pacheco hasn't played 17 games of starter, which it's year four, so maybe that says something. But 236 carries is 14 carries a game. That's about what Pacheco averaged in his best season.
- [59:40]
Host 2
But they keep saying that they want to make it more of a split. And last year Spears. I don't know if I buy this, but Spears was the goal line back last year, right?
- [59:49]
Host 3
I think. I don't think Pacheco is necessarily the goal linebacker.
- [59:52]
Host 2
Yeah. All right, Okay. I mean, you make a good point. So alrighty.
- [59:58]
Host 4
You have a big separation between those two?
- [60:00]
Host 2
Oh, yeah, absolutely. I mean, again, again, I just. Pacheco was. Pacheco was RB14 per game two years ago and he was a second round pick. So I think I am worried about Spears really eating into that backfield and I am worried about their offense not being that good. That is part of it. It's just the split is more of a concern for me. All right, how about when you look at Brian Robinson Jr. Well, okay, just Pollard, Brian Robinson, Tyrone Tracy, Jalen Warren. How do you feel about that group? As they should be your RB3, they should be your flex. What is it?
- [60:40]
Host 3
I mean they ideally would be your flex. I think Pollard's the closest to an RB2 and maybe these guys are your RB2 if you really went zero RB or maybe they're RB1 based on ADP. But I get more excited about like excluding Pollard because he's clearly the top for me about Tracy and Warren in full PPR because of what they could do as pass sketchers then I do. I can't get excited about Brian Robinson Jr. At all. Like I don't. They're not sure he's that overvalued in terms of where he's being drafted. I just with I, I don't think he's going to ever have a great season.
- [61:27]
Host 2
What about at half ppr do you go Brian Robinson or Jalen Warren?
- [61:31]
Host 3
I'd probably still go Warren.
- [61:35]
Host 2
Jamie.
- [61:36]
Host 4
There's the upside that Warren is better than Caleb Johnson this year and I know that sounds crazy to say because we're all expecting Caleb Johnson to be this high profile rookie and steps in and runs away with the job any, any could and I wouldn't shock me if he does but so far, at least early in camp and I'm guessing it's not dramatically different like he's been struggling in pass protection and you have a 40 year old quarterback and a coordinator who once upon a time was the head coach of a team that drafted the greatest prospect at running back that we've seen before Ashton Genti. Previous guy was Saquon Barkley and he didn't use him as the full featured guy. He used Tyler Algier, you know. So it wouldn't shock me if they continue to use Jalen Warren as a 10 something carry per game guy and a 4 to 5 catch per game guy. Like or at least you know, four to five targets per game. There, there's, there's a chance like he may have as much work if not more than Caleb Johnson. Seems like he's one of my favorite players to take in this range.
- [62:41]
Host 3
I have worn ahead of Caleb Johnson in full ppr.
- [62:44]
Host 2
Jamie said that surprises me because he's never, he's never finished higher than 29th per game I think in full PPR or maybe I'm a little off on that.
- [62:51]
Host 4
But yeah but again, I think that speaks to what we see from coaches like a Mike Tomlin. And what I'm afraid of for Martin Hampton with Jim Harbaugh is that Najee Harris doesn't do things that make coaches crazy.
- [63:05]
Host 2
Okay, but Jalen Warren's been the third down back and Najee Harris has. Do you remember how many times throughout the last three years there's been a report Jaylen Warren's going to get more work this week and they never gave it to him. They had all these opportunities to put in the spark plug, the guy that actually could make a big play, the guy that was a more efficient rusher than Naji Harris, and they never did it. It makes me think that they don't want to give him a big workload here.
- [63:28]
Host 4
And I don't, I don't think this is, this is not. He's taking the job and is going to be Derrick Henry in terms of workload. This is. Well, you know what I mean? Like he's not going to be Tony Pollard. He's not gonna be Tony Pollard. I, I don't, I don't think we're getting, barring a Caleb Johnson injury, 236 carries for Jalen Warren. I think we're looking at maybe, I mean there's 260 vacated carries. Maybe there's a chance that Jalen Warren gets to 180 plus, maybe he's pushing for 200 if things go very well for him. I think the passing numbers should easily favor Jalen Warren here.
- [64:04]
Host 2
Yeah.
- [64:05]
Host 4
And then you get to the, the second layer of this. We're expecting Mike Tomlin to be Mike Tomlin and maybe Arthur Smith to be Arthur Smith. You got a quarterback here who knows how to play mind games and f with everybody in that locker room and the coaching staff. And he may get control of everything and it's what he wants.
- [64:26]
Host 2
Maybe. Okay, so that's, I just think in.
- [64:29]
Host 4
This range of guys, especially in PPR like you're looking for upside, you know, floor matters clearly. And, and Brian Robinson's floor is probably very safe because his competition is a 30 plus year old Austin Eckler. A late round, you know, Jacori cross game. Merritt, you know, who's getting a lot of hype, but we don't know how that'll work out. I don't want to take Brian Robinson, but he's still the lead running back on what should be a very good offense. Sure.
- [64:56]
Host 2
Okay, Heath, just real quick, you said you moved Tyrone Tracy up where he's RB30 and ADP, where'd you move him to?
- [65:02]
Host 3
RB29. So great value. 2027 actually round. I think that's round seven for me. So it sounds like he is the this Jordan run on saying that there's no competition for RB1, that Tyrone Tracy is the RB1 to start the year. So I still think Scatter could cut into that, but for now. But again, it's the same thing with Warren. Like we're not inside the top 25 running backs anymore. No, there are going to be guys we talk about later that have more upside if somebody gets hurt. These are flex plays.
- [65:39]
Host 2
All right, so let's.
- [65:40]
Host 4
Again, I know we talked strategy yesterday, but since we're in this range, like I'll just bring up what I did with the flex draft, which is a half PPR league. I took two receivers with my first two picks of CD Lamb and AJ Brown, Kyron Williams in round three, two more receivers in rounds four and five and then we got to round six and it was okay. The position was drying up. This was my next four picks. Tony Pollard in round six, Jalen Warren in round seven, Joe Mixon in round eight and Tyrone Tracy in round nine.
- [66:08]
Host 2
Yeah, now that you should have taken mixing in round six. But that's fine. Lol. Lol. No, that's great. Good job.
- [66:17]
Host 4
But I mean again, that's how you can sort of, you know, manage this. Now it may be four different running backs. Obviously, you know, we're seeing Tracy's value in just a matter of, you know, four or five days increase mixing. Probably a steal based on where he went. Especially if you're drafting with Adam would have taken him around three, you know, so I got a little lucky with that group there, but I only took one other running back and it was just dark. West Hunter to handcuff Kyron Williams.
- [66:43]
Host 2
Tyrone Tracy, by the way, in the last 13 games of the season was the number 16 running back per game and half PPR. Number 20 running back per game in full PPR and only on pace for 235 carries. Their offense was so bad and 44 catches in there. Okay, moving on, let's just take a look at the rest of the groups of the rest of the running backs here. And you guys tell me who do you find yourself drafting a lot. So Scatter, Boo and Judkins. When would you take judkins? Guys?
- [67:09]
Host 3
11.
- [67:13]
Host 4
Double digit rounds at this point.
- [67:14]
Host 2
All right, now we're up to pick 100. Do you take, do you find yourself drafting these guys? Travis etn.
- [67:22]
Host 4
And if he if this is too soon, but if he falls a little bit more like, I think there's going to be a narrative that may be a little bit overblown against ETN because of the Tank Bigsby hype. And what we're going to start to hear, I think over the course of the next week about Tootin. I don't think ETN is going to get benched and so he's going to have some semblance of a role. So if you can sort of take him as a high end reserve, it's fine. But I think there's some other guys I'd rather have in this range, including his own teammate, Tank Bigsby.
- [67:48]
Host 3
I, I like him at pick 100.
- [67:50]
Host 2
Okay, next up is Javante Williams, 104th overall. How do you feel about Javante? How do you feel about the Cowboys running backs? What's the, what's the best value right now, Jane?
- [68:01]
Host 4
Blue is the best value.
- [68:03]
Host 3
Yeah, I, I think it's going to be a gross mess.
- [68:07]
Host 2
I actually heard today that Miles Sanders is really legitimately a red, that he's still in the mix.
- [68:13]
Host 3
Great problem. I mean, that, that just tells you everything you need to know.
- [68:18]
Host 2
Okay.
- [68:19]
Host 4
After Javon, I do think the more, the more hype you hear for Williams and Sanders, the more I really want to take just Jaden Blue, the later he falls.
- [68:27]
Host 2
Ramandre Stevenson and Naji Harris.
- [68:32]
Host 4
Stevenson's so interesting to me because I don't think he's going away. Like, I don't think Travion Henderson's coming in to be a 250 plus carry guy. And I know Stevenson's fumble history is awful, you know, and he's already fumbled once in camp. And I do like the fact that he's lost weight. I think he's obviously threatened by the presence of Henderson. It's still Mike Vrabel and even Josh McDaniel's history. At least with that team, there's always been the pass catcher and the physical guy. And so I think there's going to be a stretch of the season probably early in the year and the schedule is so great that Stevenson will still have some very good games. I'm total agreement, I think, with, with where Heath is on this and based on our rankings, like Henderson should be drafted four or five rounds ahead of Stevenson. But like you saw last night, Adam, I took Stevenson. It was, I don't remember what round it was, but it was, it was fairly late. Like he's not a bad result. Things like around 10. Like he's not a Bad guy just to stick on your bench and see what happens.
- [69:28]
Host 2
They have a very easy schedule, so that could favor Ramon Dre, give him a few more touchdown opportunities. Najee Harris, I guess you guys aren't super interested in right now, but what do you like round? Is round 10 okay for Harris?
- [69:44]
Host 4
Yeah. Fallback.
- [69:46]
Host 2
Okay. Next up, we go deeper. We like, we love J.K. dobbins at this point, right in round 10.
- [69:52]
Host 4
I like the guy behind him more, but.
- [69:53]
Host 2
Yeah, you like Jordan Mason more than Dobbins?
- [69:55]
Host 4
Yes.
- [69:57]
Host 2
Okay, so we like them better than Javante and Ramondre and Najee.
- [70:04]
Host 4
I think this is where, at least for me and my rankings, like this is where it starts to come down to roster build. So the floor is probably safer for Javante. I, I guess I like them better than Naji, but the floor is probably safer for Devonte, just given the fact that he could be the starter for the Cowboys. But I think the upside favors, I mean, if Dobbins is the lead running back for the Broncos, you saw last year what he can be. If Mason is going to get as much work as potentially advertised behind a 30 year old running back in Minnesota and Aaron Jones, like they're huge upside as well. So if you're just looking for, okay, I need somebody to maybe get me through a few weeks, I'm probably taking Devonte. I hate drafting that way. So I would probably lean toward Dobbins or Mason.
- [70:42]
Host 2
Someone's saying, I expect McCaffrey get hurt this year. I would get Jordan Mason. Mason is now on the Vikings. So Aaron Jones could get hurt. But yes, you should be thinking about Christian McCaffrey's handcuff, which is who is it still Garendo. You think he's got the injury?
- [70:57]
Host 4
I think so.
- [70:57]
Host 2
Okay.
- [70:58]
Host 3
For now.
- [70:58]
Host 2
All right. Grando was very good when pressed into action last year. After Dobbins and Mason, we have Zach Charbonnet, we have Rashad White. Who do you prefer there?
- [71:08]
Host 3
Sharps.
- [71:10]
Host 4
So again, Charbonnet, I think is the much more high upside pick. 11 games last year, which is a career low for Ken Walker. And Charbonnet was awesome almost every time he got the opportunity to be that guy. So if it's. If it's. Who do you need to maybe get you through a few weeks? It's probably Rashad White, but I would take the chance on Charbonnet.
- [71:28]
Host 2
First we've got Taj Spears.
- [71:31]
Host 3
Great value.
- [71:32]
Host 2
Yep. And we've got Austin Eckler and then we've got tank Bigsby at RB44. You, you. I don't think that you can. Don't go into your draft thinking you're going to get Tank Bigsby in the 12th round. It's probably a little ambitious. Right? Because, you know, because again, adp, it stretches over time. There haven't been that many drafts yet. Bigsby is clearly a riser. Jaden Blue maybe as well. I think Jaden Blue is realistic. In round 12, though, you got Garendo, you got Nick Chubb is. If you were going to take a backup running back on the Texans, who would you take?
- [72:10]
Host 4
Chubb for now, I wouldn't.
- [72:14]
Host 2
Okay. Basil Tootin, Trey Benson, Tyler Algier. Because Bijan Robinson hasn't gotten hurt. Algier is a very late handcuff, but certainly could be. Could be awesome if you win. Yeah. And then you got your own forward. So if you're not going to take quinch on Judkins, which Cleveland running back are you going to take?
- [72:36]
Host 4
I think you want to take either one. You know, Samson's a wild card just because I don't think he'll be the lead runner there. But you said this many a time, like, it feels like they want to replace Ford almost every time they give him the job. And so he's probably going to be the lead rusher, but I'm sure they're going to work in Samson. Like I said this when the Judkin situation was unfolding. Like, I don't think Judkins and Samson or Ford and Sampson changes very much that Samson's role was kind of, you know, locked in to some degree. He would get more carries with Jerome Ford as the starter versus Judkins most likely. But I don't think that's going to change very much. I think Sampson is going to be more of a change of pace guy, passing down the guy, two minute type of guy. Like until he can really prove he can be a leader. Lead rusher, you know, Jerome Ford taking a pay cut to come back clearly shows you what they think of him.
- [73:24]
Host 3
I'll take Samson over Ford, but both are good values.
- [73:27]
Host 2
This cost something to think about in this range. Austin in our chat says Bigsby could just take. Oh, no, sorry, that's not the one. This was. It was in response to this forest says Bigsby. Nope, it wasn't this either. Someone said, what is Bigsby's upside? And it's a good point.
- [73:45]
Host 4
I think those two comments just said it for you.
- [73:47]
Host 2
Well, yeah, like, right. He might. You look at all these running backs here. Bigsby might score more fantasy points than all of them. But if, you know, obviously if Ken Walker gets hurt, Zach Charbonnet is going to be a lot better than Tank Bigsby. If James Cook gets hurt, Ray Davis is going to be a lot better than Tank Bigsby, we think so it's, it's up to you. You should. If you want to take Bigsby, great, it's a good pick. But also put some guys who have almost no value if the running back if they, if there's not an injury, but have huge value.
- [74:20]
Host 4
So again it comes down to I think how you like to draft and for me, who wait, somebody who waits on quarterback and tight end. Like I'm usually looking for those two positions in the round 7 through 10 range. And then because of how I have stockpiled running backs and wide receivers like these are easy swing for the fence type of picks. So you want to take Ray Davis and Braylon Allen and you know, Dylan Sampson and these type of guys, Jaden Blue, Bishell, Tutin, like they're just one of them is probably going to be awesome. Because of an injury. It might not be the whole season. Might be just a stretch game.
- [74:53]
Host 2
So who are your favorite handcuffs? Let's finish with that. Your favorite ones.
- [74:58]
Host 4
In what range?
- [74:59]
Host 2
In this range?
- [75:01]
Host 4
Well, I mean because you know Charbonnet and Sure Mason go sooner than that.
- [75:06]
Host 2
Yeah. In the RB50ish range. So the Ray Davis, Tyler Algier, Trey Benson, so on.
- [75:14]
Host 4
Davis and Braylon Allen are two of my favorites.
- [75:17]
Host 3
Davis and Benson for me.
- [75:21]
Host 4
Okay.
- [75:23]
Host 2
I don't know if there's anybody else we need to talk about here. Anyone important? Roshan Johnson. What do you think about the Bears number two running back situation?
- [75:36]
Host 4
I would guess it's Roshan at this point. You know, just based on his, his opportunity, what he's listed on the depth chart. At least I would guess it's going to be a fluid situation.
- [75:46]
Host 3
Yeah.
- [75:47]
Host 4
You know, which is why you're seeing DJ Moore in the backfield a lot. You know, you're probably not happy with Everybody except for DeAndre Swift. So I always butcher his name.
- [75:58]
Host 2
Guy.
- [76:01]
Host 4
Is worth a late round flyer, but probably somebody will end up cutting I, I think, you know, a couple guys that weren't mentioned at the end of this. We got a few Woody Marks comments in the, in the chat. Yes. Because of the Joe Mixon situation. Jakori Crosky, Merritt is absolutely worth the late round flyer at this point. You know, depending on where you're drafting and then you want to keep an eye on the backup situation in Philadelphia. I think it's being a split role right now between Will Shipley and A.J. dillon. Probably would be a shared situation if Barkley had to miss any time. But you know, similar to Tyler Algier but obviously a lot less clarity is if Barkley does miss any games. That offensive line we know is great. The system is great. I would bank on Shipley at this point but it wouldn't shock me if it's. If Dylan gets a little bit more run than we expect.
- [76:48]
Host 2
If you have Jonathan Taylor, it seems like DJ Giddens could be a good handcuff there as well. But yep, plenty of. Plenty of handcuff options. There are 32 teams so that gives us a lot of handcuff options. And that's it for the running backs. We'll start wide receiver tomorrow. Woo hoo. The last of our position previews tomorrow and Friday. Also Thursday night at 10:30pm Eastern we are recording the mailbag. So that's going to be me, Dan and Jamie at 10:30. It's going to be insane.
- [77:15]
Host 4
And Dan, correct me if I'm wrong. Dan's going out before that, right?
- [77:18]
Host 2
I think so. I think he has plans. Yeah.
- [77:20]
Host 4
So Dan's coming back in a great mood.
- [77:24]
Host 2
Yeah. And there's going to be a lot of tennis smack talk.
- [77:27]
Host 3
I somebody have to donate for you to bring smelling salts and take them between each set.
- [77:36]
Host 2
Thousand dollars.
- [77:38]
Host 4
I really like my idea. I know you don't like it because you. You're such a tennis guy that this should be as more people donate. Like you have to add layers of clothing.
- [77:47]
Host 2
No, no.
- [77:49]
Host 4
Like why would you not make.
- [77:50]
Host 2
Because I want to play. Because I want to play and I want to win.
- [77:53]
Host 3
But I just want to clarify. $1000 donation and you will use smelling salt.
- [77:59]
Host 2
I can't do it. I don't think it's safe. I don't think it's safe.
- [78:03]
Host 4
So NFL athletes do it. George Kell says he does it on every drive.
- [78:08]
Host 3
Not. Not good for Adam.
- [78:10]
Host 2
I wouldn't even know how to do. I wouldn't even know how to. How to spell them. I'd screw it up.
- [78:15]
Host 3
Tutorial I don't like.
- [78:17]
Host 4
I just don't understand. Like you know you're gonna lose.
- [78:19]
Host 2
No, I don't know that I think I'm gonna lose.
- [78:22]
Host 4
Why would you not want to raise more money for St. Jude?
- [78:24]
Host 2
I mean, I mean I'm in 24 fantasy leagues right now running them and setting up drafts. I if they get this for the.
- [78:31]
Host 4
Fft if somebody legitimately was going to give, let's say like a $5,000 donation for you to wear, like, a weird hat. You wouldn't do it, of course.
- [78:38]
Host 2
Of course.
- [78:38]
Host 3
$5,000 to do smelling salts.
- [78:40]
Host 2
Five for each set? Yeah.
- [78:43]
Host 3
Okay, we're locked in.
- [78:45]
Host 4
What. What if it's like, you know, we. We see a lot of these, you know, challenges for fantasy punish or fantasy punishments or punishments for losing your fantasy league or like, you know, things to determine your draft thing. So, like, what if it was like you had to drink a liter of soda? I know you wouldn't do it, but, like, if you had to drink, you have to chug orange juice for five minutes.
- [79:13]
Host 2
I mean, you basically just asked me to barf on camera, but I would do something like that. All right, well, we'll talk to you tomorrow with wide receivers.
- [79:23]
Host 4
Foreign.
- [79:33]
Host 6
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