Sophomore WRs! Thomas Jr. or Nabers? Sleepers, Breakouts, Busts and More (02/24 Fantasy Football Podcast)

Summary

Fantasy Football Today: Episode Summary – "Sophomore WRs! Thomas Jr. or Nabers? Sleepers, Breakouts, Busts and More" (Released February 24, 2025)

In this engaging episode of Fantasy Football Today, host Adam Aizer and his expert panel—analysts Dave Richard, Jamey Eisenberg, and Heath Cummings—delve into the performance and potential of sophomore wide receivers (WRs) entering their second NFL seasons. The discussion is rich with analysis, insights, and actionable advice for fantasy football enthusiasts aiming to dominate their leagues.

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1. Introduction to Sophomore WRs

The episode kicks off with Adam Aizer setting the stage for a deep dive into the rookie WR class's progress. He highlights the mixed performances, noting that while some players have exceeded expectations, others have fallen short of their high draft positions.

Notable Quote:

• Adam [02:11]: "Pretty good rookie wide receiver class. Malik Nabors finished as the number eight wide receiver per game in PPR. Brian Thomas Jr. 15th per game in full PPR."

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2. Performance Review of Key Sophomore WRs

Brian Thomas Jr. vs. Malik Nabors: The panel begins by contrasting the performances of Brian Thomas Jr. and Malik Nabors. Thomas Jr. has shown significant improvement, particularly in volume and efficiency, making him a strong contender for higher rankings in fantasy drafts. Nabors, while also performing well, is discussed in the context of his team's quarterback situation.

Notable Quotes:

• Dave [08:17]: "I still have Neighbors ahead of Brian Thomas Jr. It's based on volume and an expected improvement at quarterback in New York."
• Jamie [09:41]: "Same top two, and then it's sort of how things shake out with McConkey and Worthy."

Marvin Harrison Jr. and Roma Odunze: The discussion shifts to Harrison Jr. and Odunze, who have had underwhelming rookie seasons. The analysts explore the reasons behind their disappointments and the potential for growth in their sophomore years.

Notable Quote:

• Dave [24:26]: "He can be a good player, and he's a wide receiver. 3. And does he have the upside to be number one? It's based on what?"

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3. Ranking the Top Five Sophomore Wide Receivers

The panel members present their rankings for the top five sophomore WRs, providing rationale for each position based on performance metrics and team dynamics.

Dave's Top Five:

1. Malik Nabors
2. Brian Thomas Jr.
3. Ladd McConkey
4. Xavier Worthy
5. Marvin Harrison Jr.

Jamie's Top Five:

1. Malik Nabors
2. Brian Thomas Jr.
3. Ladd McConkey
4. Xavier Worthy
5. Marvin Harrison Jr.

Notable Quote:

• Jamie [09:41]: "Same top two, and then it's sort of how things shake out with McConkey and Worthy."

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4. Deep Dive: Brian Thomas Jr. vs. Malik Nabors

A significant portion of the episode focuses on the comparison between Thomas Jr. and Nabors. The analysts examine target volumes, team quarterback improvements, and on-field chemistry to forecast their fantasy potential.

Notable Quotes:

• Dave [10:08]: "Thomas was unstoppable with Mac Jones, right?"
• Adam [14:23]: "Sometimes it sounds like I'm being negative on Neighbors where that's not the case at all."

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5. Statistical Insights and Projections

Adam presents detailed statistics, such as fantasy points per game and yards per route run, to contextualize the players' performances. He emphasizes Brian Thomas Jr.'s impressive metrics, placing him among elite rookie WRs.

Notable Quote:

• Adam [08:14]: "Malik Neighbors is 13. But, man, I can't get over the metrics for Brian Thomas. They are unbelievable."

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6. Potential Breakouts and Sleepers

The panel identifies WRs who are poised for breakout seasons or serve as valuable late-round sleepers in fantasy drafts. Names like Roman Wilson, Ricky Pearsall, Keon Coleman, and Xavier Legate are discussed in this context.

Notable Quote:

• Jamie [37:39]: "Odinze is someone we build around. It's a matter of whether he's the clear cut two or in the mix to be the one."

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7. Impact of Team Changes and Coaching

Adam and the analysts discuss how offseason moves, coaching changes, and quarterback performances can significantly influence WR outputs. They consider how improved offensive schemes and better quarterback play can elevate WR performance.

Notable Quotes:

• Jamie [38:09]: "Potential of Keenan Allen leaving... better Caleb Williams, better offensive line, better coaching."
• Dave [35:41]: "Would you say that if the Chargers throw the ball 60% of the time that would be a surprise or is that sort of reasonable?"

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8. Superlatives: Most Likely to Bust and Breakout

The panel assigns superlatives to highlight the WRs with the highest risk of underperforming and those with the potential to exceed expectations.

Most Likely to Bust:

• Adam: Considers Marvin Harrison Jr. due to his end-zone target inefficiency.

Most Likely to Breakout:

• Jamie: Points to Odunze for his increased opportunities with coaching changes.
• Dave: Highlights Ricky Pearsall as a reliable breakout option based on his role in the offense.

Notable Quotes:

• Jamie [31:53]: "There's more room for them to fail."
• Dave [52:38]: "He had at least 11.7 PPR in three of the four."

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9. Waiver Wire and Late-Round Sleeper Picks

The analysts provide recommendations for waiver wire acquisitions and late-round picks, focusing on players who could provide significant value with minimal investment.

Notable Names Discussed:

• Jordan Whittington: Recommended by Dave for his potential role with the Rams.
• Keon Coleman and Xavier Legate: Identified by Jamie as high-upside, late-round options.
• Malachi Corley and Ricky Pearsall: Highlighted by Adam and Dave for their opportunities to step into larger roles.

Notable Quote:

• Dave [45:32]: "There's so many that I am intrigued by. Just start naming names."

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10. Specific Player Focus: Keon Coleman

A thorough analysis is dedicated to Keon Coleman, exploring his combine performance, injury history, and offensive potential. The panel debates his placement in drafts, weighing his high upside against potential risks.

Notable Quotes:

• Jamie [46:05]: "He could be Debo Samuel if they use him the right way."
• Dave [35:41]: "He had at least 11.7 PPR in three of the four."

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11. Closing Remarks and Final Insights

As the episode wraps up, Adam summarizes the key takeaways, emphasizing the importance of staying updated with offseason developments and tailoring draft strategies based on the evolving landscape of NFL offenses.

Notable Quote:

• Adam [56:50]: "All right, so that's those three through five. One through five in the rankings for both Dave and Jamie..."

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Conclusion

This episode of Fantasy Football Today offers a comprehensive analysis of sophomore wide receivers, blending statistical insights with strategic advice. Whether you're looking to draft your next WR, identify waiver wire gems, or avoid potential busts, the panel provides valuable perspectives to help you navigate the fantasy football season with confidence.

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Transcript

[Adam]

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[Adam]

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[Dave]

Now here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie and Heath.

[Adam]

Pretty good rookie wide receiver class. Malik Nabors finished as the number eight wide receiver per game in PPR. Brian Thomas Jr. 15th per game in full PPR. Better than that though, in non and half PPR. Ladd McConkey also in the top 20. Disappointing performances from Marvin Harrison Jr. And Roma Dunes. I think that's what's so interesting about this class going into their second seasons is that we didn't even get great production from two top 10 picks in the NFL draft. We could have a breakout maybe from Ricky Pearsall and perhaps those guys who went late in the first or early in the second round in the NFL draft. You know, guys like Keon Coleman, Xavier Legate, Jalen Polk, maybe they have something to say as well. Dave and Jamie certainly have something to say as we welcome you to fantasy football today. Talking sophomore wide receivers and what's going on, guys? How, how excited are you, Jamie, about the sophomore wide receivers?

[Jamie]

Yeah, it's exciting. Class, you know, I think you got the two guys at the top that could be first round picks in the majority of leagues and then we'll see sort of how the trickle down effect goes. But I mean, when you look at the potential of it, we knew what it was going into the year. It was a very exciting class for, you know, dynasty leagues and rookie only drafts and, you know, hopefully we get a little bit more, you know, guys at the top that can deliver. And you know, I think you name two of them in MHJ and Odunze that have the potential to hopefully join neighbors and Brian Thomas Jr. And I'm.

[Dave]

I'm real curious about the receivers that didn't do anything in their rookie year who could break out in their second year. And it's always harder to pinpoint those guys, especially in late February. But by the time we get to training camp, we're going to hear some good stuff about a guy I've been talking about for over a year now is Roman Wilson. We'll Hear about Luke McCaffrey. We'll hear about Ricky Pearsall and the steps that he's taking after he showed a glimmer of hope last year. Those are the players that we're going to be able to hone in on and hopefully hammer in the back half of fantasy drafts and get some real good value from you kind of know what you're getting from the guys that showed out last year. It's that other half of the class that we really need to pay attention to for the next five, six months.

[Jamie]

Yeah, Keon Coleman too.

[Dave]

That's a good call. Keon Coleman, he could step up. There's a bunch of names. We'll get to them all.

[Adam]

You said the guys who showed out last year. Is that just three guys.

[Dave]

Maybe showed out isn't the right.

[Adam]

No, it's fine.

[Jamie]

I think there's, there's five.

[Adam]

Oh, yeah, that's what I want to know. Because like you'd say Xavier Worthy, did you have to include his postseason stats.

[Dave]

Sure.

[Jamie]

I mean, look, you got, you got Worthy at the end of the season. You have McMillan at the end of the season and you have McConkey. You know, I mean, we can't forget what he did.

[Adam]

Yeah.

[Jamie]

You know, as, as really the, the third member of the, the top three. So you know, you have those three guys in terms of McConkey, neighbors and, and Thomas at the top. And then I think it's kind of what's the trickle down effect after those guys and who could join them. And so, you know, you look at Harrison, you look at Odunze, you look at Coleman, you look at, you know, these other guys that, that had these other, you know, some, some, some sparks during the season.

[Dave]

McMillan.

[Jamie]

Right. McMillan and Worthy, you know, and then can, you know, we get some, you know, even Xavier Leggett had a couple of moments in the middle of the year, you know, when, when Andy Dalton first took over. So there'll be some, you know, guys here. It's a, it's a fun class. It really is. You know, it's going to be to see how these guys sort of step forward. You know, the hope is that the two that were expected to be prominent parts of this class aren't bus in Harrison and Odunze. You know, and so after disappointing rookie season, really, you know, to say disappointing rookie seasons, it's, it's kind of normal rookie seasons. It's just the expectations were so high, especially for Harrison. You know, I, again, I'll say this for the billionth time. I've said it a lot throughout the course of the off season. Already his rookie season was almost identical to his father's and his father had a Hall of Fame career, you know, so will he match that? Who knows? But you know, it's like we sit here and we expect, we expected him to be neighbors. We expected him to be Thomas and he just wasn't.

[Adam]

Yeah, yeah, he played one extra game than his dad, but still. Yeah. Remarkably similar numbers for Marvin Harrison Jr. Who per game was round wide receiver 40, 38th and non PPR, 41 and full PPR. And here are some fun facts for you. I've given this one before, but Xavier Worthy and Marvin Harrison Jr. Average the same amount of fantasy points per game. One reason for that is Xavier Worthy had 20 carries, 104 rushing yards and three rushing touchdowns. Marvin Harrison Jr. Did not have a carry. Here's another fun fact. Jalen McMillan had eight touchdowns on 58 targets since 2014. That was the awesome rookie class with Beckham and Evans, Etc. Fifteen rookie wide receivers have caught eight or more touchdowns, but none of them had fewer than 84 targets. Except for McMillan, who had 58. But buyer beware. Gabe Davis as a rookie had seven touchdowns on 62 targets. And then I was thinking, I'm gonna get your top five in a second, but who's the number one rookie wide receiver? Is it Thomas or is it Neighbors? In the last two drafts we did, Thomas went ahead of Neighbors both times. One of them, they were back to back. The other one, they were a few picks apart. But look at the elite company of rookie wide receivers. Yards per out run leaders since that 2014 draft class. Odell Beckham Jr. Is number one. A.J. brown. 2 Justin Jefferson, 3. Huka Nukua, 4. Jamar Chase, 5. Brian Thomas Jr. 6th best yards per out run as a rookie in the last 11 seasons. And the company he's in, Beckham, Brown, A.J. brown, Jefferson, Puka, Jamar Chase. That's amazing. And then after that, it's olave, Rashid rice, McConkey, Tyreek Hill. That's your top 10. Christian Watson, Tank Dell. Malik Neighbors is 13. But, man, I can't get over the metrics for Brian Thomas. They are unbelievable. And who do you guys have ranked number one? Let's get your top five sophomore wide receivers ready. You guys have a top five?

[Dave]

Yes.

[Adam]

All right, Dave, go ahead.

[Dave]

I still have Neighbors ahead of Brian Thomas Jr. It's based on volume and an expected improvement at quarterback in New York. I don't know if it'll be a huge improvement. It would be interesting if it were Matthew Stafford, for example. Not that he would necessarily be the best, but for the Giants, beggars can't be choosers. You know, they're not going to be able to get an elite quarterback. The best they might be able to do is Cam Ward. I'd love to see Ward connected to Malik Neighbors, but the volume, I expected to be there. He averaged 11.3 targets per game, a humongous number. It's really hard to fail in fantasy when you're getting thrown the ball that much. And he really. He didn't have a high percentage of uncatchable throws. I believe it was 19. Which just goes to show that even with bad quarterback play, he made it work. So he's number one.

[Adam]

I'm sorry. He did have a high percentage of. That is a high.

[Dave]

Did not. I would say that 19 is not a high.

[Adam]

Oh, really?

[Dave]

Uncatchable target rate.

[Adam]

Oh, okay.

[Dave]

Yeah, A lot of. A lot of receivers are between like 20 and 25, and maybe a little less than 25. I think once you get to 25, it's bad. Brian Thomas Jr. Would be second. I have McConkey third. I've got Worthy fourth, and I've got Marvin Harrison fifth. Harrison is the only one that's not a top 24 receiver.

[Adam]

Malik neighbors, Brian Thomas Jr. Lab McConkey, Xavier Worthy, Marvin Harrison Jr. For Dave. Jamie, how about you?

[Jamie]

Same top two, and then it's sort. You know, right now it's McConkey three Worthy for MHJ five. But depending on what happens with Rice and the Chiefs and what happens with the Chargers and if they add somebody significant, three, four, and five could all change.

[Adam]

You think one and two could change because you guys had the same top five neighbors. Thomas, McConkey, Worthy, Harrison. You think you could flip Thomas and Neighbors?

[Jamie]

Unless the giants start DeVito.

[Adam]

Okay, again, I'm gone. I'm just done with football. If that's the case.

[Dave]

What if one of those teams adds a receiver in the draft, you know, Teddy Royal, McMillan somehow ends up going to those teams? It would be the most ridiculous thing. There's talk that the Jaguars could do something like that. That would kill the upside, I would.

[Adam]

Say, for Brian Thomas Jr. Yeah, I don't know, man. I. What he did was so incredible, so impressive. He did a lot of it with Mac Jones. Now, I will point out that you got to look at the last four games of the season for Brian Thomas Jr. Before those last four games, he had a really good rookie season, but he didn't have the huge breakout he. In those last four games, he was on pace for 140 catches, 1832 yards, 17 touchdowns on 204 targets. And the first 13 games of the year, he was wide receiver 21 per game in non PPR, 25 per game in full PPR, on pace for only 111 targets. So what happened in those last four games? Christian Kirk was out. He had been out for like a month at that point. But Evan Ingram also got hurt, so he. So. So, like, I think I'm actually. I think I'm actually Thomas over neighbors, because if your only argument is volume, I think the gap in targets narrows significantly. Thomas started commanding those targets, proved himself to be the number one guy. We saw a report last week that they're not even expected to bring back Christian Kirk. I don't think Evan Ingram is going to be the guy that holds back Brian Thomas Jr. Neighbors might have more targets in it, but he might not.

[Dave]

He.

[Adam]

He might not. So if Thomas Was that much better on a per route, per target basis. I think I'm going to lean towards Thomas even, and I'm just a switch of like everything I've said, you know, going into the year, whatever, but he blew me away. And again, I read that list of the yards per run leaders. He's in truly elite company and I got to respect that. So I think if you think I'm.

[Jamie]

Going to go with him, play the draft board almost, you know, so they're going to get drafted in a similar range. You just mentioned it. They went back to back into drafts. I know the last draft we did with Thomas, where he ended up with McCaffrey in round two, he was sort of playing the board to see if one of those two guys going to follow him. I think that's going to kind of be the case. They're going to be back into round one, beginning around two type of guys, you know, let's say Genti ends up in a great spot and pushes himself into round one territory, which, you know, could happen if he's in the right landing spot. So, you know, the first round sort of changes a little bit based on how we have it, you know, sort of mapped out now. And you're seeing back end around, excuse me, front end around two, you know, landing spots for these guys. I don't think you're making a wrong choice, at least right now, you know, so quarterback situation for the Giants can change some things. Receiving core for both these teams could change some things. The nice thing for Neighbors is his coaching staff is still the same. So, you know, they're. They're going to lean on him probably as much as they did. We'll see if things change in, in Jacksonville with Liam Cohen there. And you said it, all of his big games for Thomas, the consistent big games for him did not come with Trevor Lawrence. Now, that's not to say Lawrence can't do, obviously what Mac Jones did and, and feature feature Thomas to the same extent, but it was with a different quarterback that had maybe a little bit more of a YOLO mentality of, okay, I have nothing to lose here. I can throw into tight windows and turn over the ball and not have to worry about my job because my job is not secure. Trevor Lawrence doesn't have to worry about those things, but he also has to worry about protecting the franchise a little bit.

[Adam]

I don't know. You're trying to tell me that Trevor Lawrence is a bad thing for Brian Thomas?

[Jamie]

No, no, no. I'm not saying it's a Bad thing. I was saying the worst of the quarterbacks is different.

[Adam]

Yeah, I'm fine with that though. Like, I think I'm, I'm like, that's the other part of it is he's going to have Trevor Lawrence throwing to him. Maybe Trevor Lawrence isn't the great quarterback I thought he was going to be. I still will take him over whoever. Well, I mean, I, I'd take Stafford. Like if they get Stafford, I'll take him.

[Jamie]

Whoever, probably whoever has the quarterback edge today for sure. No question about it. That, that wasn't the point.

[Adam]

Yeah.

[Jamie]

The point was, was that sometimes the backup quarterback is going to do some different things than the starting quarterback. You know, he, he. Their win loss record doesn't matter to Mac Jones. The win loss record for Trevor Lawrence is huge.

[Adam]

All right.

[Dave]

Mac Jones knew what to do and I, Adam, I know you're looking at the last four games. I would go back to post buy Jacksonville to study what Brian Thomas did because Thomas had some big games. We talked about that with Trevor Lawrence before the buy. But after the buy, they really concentrated on him. He averaged more targets per game than Neighbors did over the whole season. It was close, but he had a little bit more. It was 11.7 targets per game. He had at least 16 PPR points. And every single one of those games, his ADOT didn't really change. He was even a little less explosive after those games. He just had that volume push that helped him become like a true alpha wide receiver. And you listed the numbers that he would have had. You extrapolated four games, small sample size over the course of 17 games. It sounded like Randy Moss.

[Adam]

Yeah.

[Dave]

And if, if that's the type of guy that we're drafting, then yes, you're taking him over Malik Neighbors. But the other thing that you didn't point out. Yes, there, there, there could be changes at quarterback in New York. There almost be. Certainly will be somebody added to the receiving core in both New York and Jacksonville. I don't know if it'll be a big splash or a little splash. The run games could be affected too. And I think it might be more likely that Jacksonville makes a move at running back to try and get some versatility there and maybe some added speed. And Liam Cohen has really thrived with some good running backs that he didn't necessarily need to spend big capital on. Not that he's the one that drafted Bucky Irving, but he did recognize that Bucky Irving was a better player than Rashad White. And we saw that changeover. I'd have to go back to Kentucky and study what he did there. I would say that there, there might be a little bit more of a chance that Jacksonville irons out their run game more so than the Giants do. Based on what the Giants have committed financially to Devin Singletary, I don't think he's going anywhere. And Tyrone Tracy wasn't bad last year, but they could still make a change there. There could be things that flip the order. There's no question about it.

[Adam]

That doesn't the running thing, I mean, I'm not looking at it just off the top of my head. I didn't know they had almost the same exact running stats last year. They were 25th and 26th, Giants and Jaguars in rush attempts.

[Dave]

Yeah, they stunk.

[Adam]

They were 23rd and 26th in rushing yards. Giants slightly ahead. They had the same amount of rushing touchdowns. I don't know, a team with a better running game, to me could just have a better offense. Unless they bring in like Derrick Henry and, and run the ball 350 times with him. You know, it's not going to really change my mind. But hey, it's everybody's got their own opinion on what the running game can do to the passing game. I do need to take a break. Dave. Sorry about that. We're going to get it. Go for a quick timeout here and when we come back, get another. Get a thought from Dave on this and then we got to talk about other players and just the top two. We'll be right back on Fantasy football today. Hey guys, have you heard of Gold Belly?

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Someone says Riperminds says you give Neighbors a QB and a little help, he'll be unstoppable. Look at his quarterbacks.

[Dave]

It's kind of true.

[Adam]

That's. I completely.

[Dave]

Thomas was unstoppable with Mac Jones, right?

[Adam]

Yeah. Sometimes it sounds like I'm being negative on. On Neighbors where that's not the case at all. I think everyone agrees. We're super pumped about these two guys. They are studs. What did you want to be if.

[Jamie]

You'Re picking 12th and they're still on the board?

[Adam]

Yeah. So, you know what, actually, Thomas, you want to come back from your vacation? You want to. I got a question for you here. How was your week off, by the way? Yeah, it was good.

[Jamie]

It was good.

[Dave]

I went to Orlando. It was a little chilly to play some golf. It was like 40 degree lows in the morning, so.

[Adam]

Little chilly from South Florida. Yeah. All the way up to Central Florida. You took Nico Collins in round one of this draft that Jamie mentioned. You took him 10th, and then picks 13 and 14 were Thomas and neighbors. And then you took McCaffrey. Let's just say in a. In a fun world where Brian Thomas Jr. Malik, neighbors and Christian McCaffrey had all been available and you already had Nico Collins, who would you have taken?

[Dave]

I was going to take Brian Thomas Jr. Okay.

[Adam]

But you know, we're in February.

[Dave]

I don't know if I would do that in September. If there's insane reports about Christian McCaffrey being back.

[Adam]

Yeah, no, no, no. Look, I mean, this is what's going to happen. Everyone's going to be where. Everyone's going to come to where I am now on McCaffrey. He's going to end up being a top six pick and then, you know, and then he's going to be a bust and we're all going to be.

[Dave]

And it also has to do with just a quarterback situation, too.

[Jamie]

I. Yeah. Trevor Lawrence and DeVito. It's night and day, so.

[Adam]

Yeah.

[Jamie]

But.

[Adam]

Well, it's good to have you back. Enjoy the warm weather in South Florida, Thomas. All right, let's talk about three through five. And you had the same order. McConkey Worthy, Marvin Harrison Jr. So, Jamie, how clear do you feel on those three? McConkey Worthy, Marvin Harrison Jr.

[Jamie]

I mean, like I said before, you know, you could see the Chargers adding a receiver. You could see the Chiefs getting Kelsey back and Rice healthy and not suspended. And Marvin Harrison Jr. We hear all these offseason reports about just how much better he looks. And you know, you could flip this list in in reverse order. So I think there's, you know, got to be a little bit of a fluid process with these three guys because there's some things that can change, but as we're ranking them right now, McConkey's coming off a pretty solid rookie campaign where he was the go to guy for Justin Herbert. You have Worthy in the way that he finished with Rice, potentially getting suspended or not being ready to go with the knee injury. And maybe Worthy is the better of the two in the last, I think three drafts, certainly last two, Worthy's been draft selected ahead of Rice in, in our drafts. And so we'll see if that's something that ends up being, you know, the norm. And for Harrison, you know, I don't want to again, you know, discount what the upside and the potential could be. You know, the Cardinals may add a receiver to help their, their, their receiving core, you know, because of what Michael Wilson and Greg Dortch don't necessarily do and, you know, taking some pressure off of, of McBride and Harrison. But what if they don't, you know, and it's still just, you know, guys like that. And then we're hopefully getting more targets funneled to, to Harrison along with what McBride does, and there's a chance for him to have a huge sophomore season. So they're all kind of bunched up. I do think again, though, McConkey should be selected ahead of the other two just based on the way that he performed over the course of the season, Worthy the way that he finished and you know, Harrison still based on potential.

[Adam]

And Dave, how, you know, I use the word clear, but you know, with McConkey, Worthy, Harrison, does that feel. You feel confident in that ranking right now?

[Dave]

Right? Assuming that we keep those words right now? Yes, because, I mean, there's. How clear is it? The draft hasn't happened yet. Free agency hasn't happened yet. So there's a lot of team intention that they're not showing us and won't show us. It's a better question for May than it is for late February. But McConkey, the way that he finished last year was unbelievable. He averaged over 20 PPR points per game in his last eight, including the playoffs. Was that all kind of out of necessity because the Chargers didn't have a run game and they didn't have anybody else that was really great in the passing game? Yeah, I'd say that's true. I would dial back that expectation for McConkey, but it doesn't mean that he can't in full PPR deliver over 15 points per game. He was barely over 15 points per game on the whole last season. He's fast, he's elusive, he can line up anywhere, he'll cross the middle of the field. He can do anything that, that Justin Herbert asks. And I still don't see this offense going back to, you know, the, the old school era of running the football a ton. I think they're going to lean on Justin Herbert. I think they're still going to throw the ball good amount. So I, I still think McConkey is the best, the next best among the wide receivers. I love what I saw from Worthy. There is some downside to him just because of his build and because of Rasheed Rice coming back. And who knows what the Chiefs will do to, to change their offense. Especially if Travis Kelce decides that, you know, raising a puppy is more important at this point in his life than playing football. And I'm finish on Marvin Harrison Jr. I spent some time even watching some of his, some of his film this morning and there's things that he can do really well and there's a lot of watching his film after watching Makon and Xavier Worthy. It's like going from driving a Porsche to driving a, you know, a used car that's on some beater lot. It's. He, he's not elusive, he's not as fast. He, he can do things like find soft spots and zone coverage. He can make contested catches. He, he can be a good player. And I would draft him to be an okay player. And He's a wide receiver. 3. And does he have the upside to be number one? It's based on what? Does he get good volume? Does he start to out target Trey McBride? Okay, maybe he could be a wide receiver too if that happens. But he just. I, based on the film that we saw last year, I don't, I don't see the, the elite talent that makes him. That made him so great at Ohio State. I'm confounded by it.

[Adam]

Yeah.

[Dave]

Because I remember watching Middle State and I was blown away. He was great. And then you watch him last year and game one. Yeah, it looked like he was thinking too much. But when he's, when it still looks like he's thinking too much and it's December, that's a problem. So I'm hoping that he can get things ironed out like his dad did. Like his dad's quarterback helped his dad get to and, and he can be a great fantasy wide receiver. But for now I'm drafting him as a high end wide receiver 3.

[Jamie]

So you're not drafting him?

[Dave]

I'm.

[Adam]

I happily, happily not drafting. I, I think you know, where did.

[Dave]

He go in the last draft that we did?

[Adam]

I was just looking at that. He went and maybe named some receivers.

[Dave]

And went after him.

[Adam]

He went in the middle of round two. No. Yeah, yeah, the other, the other draft he went in middle of round four to me.

[Dave]

Okay, so who are some receivers taken after him in the middle of round four?

[Adam]

So he went right after Jackson, Smith and Jigba and then it was DJ Moore, George Pickens, Jalen Waddle, Chris Olave.

[Dave]

Yeah, I'll take Harrison over Olave. I'm taking DJ Moore ahead of Marvin Harrison right now.

[Adam]

The thing I want to talk about that film stuff because I was watching some Harrison this morning and I was watching some Odunze and I feel like if going From Worthy and McConkey to Harrison is like. What did you say? Going from a Porsche to what a used car on.

[Dave]

I think I said a beat up car lot.

[Adam]

Yeah. And then I feel like, you know.

[Dave]

Like some cities will have like those local ads where some guy in a plaid suit and a ugly haircut and a goatee with gray on his chin and glasses will be like, come buy my car. Our prices are great. And like you're, you're buying a hooptie.

[Adam]

Some would buy David plaid shirt, please. But. And then like if you go from Marvin Harrison to Roma dudes, a I feel like, you know, hot take. I feel like maybe you're going from that used car to like the, the Tyco car that's in my basement that my kids drive around. Because Odunsay on tape, he didn't really show much either. But I feel like these bigger receivers aren't as special to watch on tape. They do things differently. Like I have, I have pretty much never really been blown away by Drake London on tape. But these guys, they do different things. They're not going to run away from players, but they can still find ways to be productive even if it's not as exciting. So I, I don't want to be too much of a film. I don't want to be too much of a tape guy. But that's what I've sort of noticed. Like these smaller, quicker guys are more fun to watch. But that doesn't mean that like they can't be. That these bigger guys can't be Mike Evans. Right. But like Marvin, because here's one thing that Harrison and Odunes, they have in common. They both had a lot of end zone targets, and they're going to have to do better with those end zone targets. Marvin Harrison Jr. I think he was tied for second with 18 end zone targets. Romo Dunes, they had 16 dunes. They had a horrible touchdown rate on those end zone targets, though. But, yeah, so like Harrison, they gotta find better ways to use him. I talked about this. His. His adot pretty high. Thirteen and a half yards. He had basically the fewest amount of targets of 5 air yards or less of any relevant wide receiver in the NFL. Any fantasy relevant wide receiver, except for A.J. brown, who missed four games, I think. So they never gave him, you know, they rarely gave him a bubble screen. They rarely set anything up for him. For Marvin Harrison Jr. You know, it was so much downfield stuff. And I just feel like they have to get better, get more creative with him because he's not going to blow you away on tape like Malik Neighbors is, but he can still be great in other ways.

[Dave]

You'd think that they would have figured that out during the season, though, and they didn't do that. So I checked on that stat, too. Throws of 10 or fewer air yards. He had 31 catches. The exact same number of catches he had on throws of 11 or more air yards. Okay, so he had 62 catches on the season, literally half of them closer to the line of scrimmage, the other half of them a little bit further downfield. His catch rate on throws of 10 or fewer air yards, he only had 46 targets. It was a decent catch rate, 67.4% more receivers love a higher catch rate than that they should. These are easier throws to make on 11 or more air yards. He saw 70 targets. That's a 44% catch rate for the number one receiver taken.

[Adam]

Yeah.

[Dave]

In the NFL draft. And 605 yards on 31 catches, five touchdowns.

[Adam]

But Dave, I was talking about five yards closer. Five yards, like you can do any number you want, but I'm talking about really simple stuff just to get the ball in Marvin Harrison junior's hands. And they didn't do it. They did they? Hardly ever.

[Jamie]

That's where it comes down to Rob Petzick and what he does this off season in terms of how do they retool things and work him into, you know, getting him easier touches.

[Adam]

Yeah. And Drew Petzig, his brother, even more. All right, so that's three through five again. One through five in the rankings for both Dave and Jamie, our neighbors, Thomas McConkey Worthy and Marvin Harrison Jr. Worthy. His season really didn't start until Rasheed Rice got hurt. So I just want to ask you, who do you think has more targets next year? Of these three? I'll throw in three. Rice, Worthy, Harrison. Who's the most targets.

[Dave]

On a per game basis? Rice.

[Jamie]

I'll say Harrison.

[Adam]

Yeah, I found it interesting that you both had Worthy ahead of Harrison, but all right, I don't want to spend too much time. We got a lot of a lot of players to talk about. So let me do some news and notes real quick. Dan Pompeii of the Athletics says it appears certain that the Buccaneers want to re sign Chris Godwin, which of course is relevant for a lot of players, including Jaylen McMillan. Dallas guard Zach Martin is retiring. He is quite frankly one of the best guards ever. He will be a first ballot hall of Famer. Here's a weird stat. Rico Dowdle averaged 4.1 yards per carry with Zach Martin on the field and 4.9 yards per carry with him off the field. Eight tenths of a yard more. Yeah, this was almost entirely down the stretch when Dowdle was being featured and faced almost nothing but bad run defenses. Alec Lewis of the Athletic thinks the Vikings will let Sam Darnold enter free agency. New Coordinator Offensive Coordinator for the Cowboys Ken Dorsey said the Cowboys want to run the football. I probably should have put that note after the Zach Martin one. Sorry, but Kendor's he says the Cowboys want to run the football. Cleveland guard Joel Batonio might retire. The Rams are allowing Matthew Stafford's agent to talk to other teams to get a sense of his value. We'll see what happens there. That could be a big domino. The Saints hired Brandon Staley as their defensive coordinator. He was the head coach for the Chargers when Kellen Moore was his offensive coordinator. And now Moore is Staley's boss. And some other boring stuff. But Chicago released Gerald Everett. He had 13 targets in 17 games. And the NFL was investigating sexual misconduct allegations against Justin Tucker. We knew about the allegations, but now the NFL is looking into them. So let's go to some wide receiver superlatives here. Most likely to be a Bust Sophomore Wide receiver Superlatives Most likely to be a Bust.

[Dave]

Based on the guys we've talked about so far. No Harvard?

[Adam]

Any anything? Anyone?

[Jamie]

Any of them. So like fantasy bust next season?

[Adam]

Yes. Yes.

[Jamie]

Oh, I mean the guy's going to get drafted first. It's going to be neighbors or Thomas.

[Adam]

Yeah, I don't know.

[Jamie]

I mean, there's more room for them to fail.

[Adam]

That's. Well, that is true. But what do you think, though? Do you think that they have the most bus potential? Because I would say McConkey in the third round would be my pick compared to probably worthy. I'd rather have like, okay, yeah, I don't know where he's going to go because we have one guy who's drafted him in our drafts and like he's taken him very early. So I don't really know. What do you think his ADP will be? Xavier worthy.

[Jamie]

It's so dependent on Rice and Kelsey at this point, you know, so if there is no Rice, there is no Kelsey for the first two, three weeks of the season. Kelsey retiring and Rice suspended or hurt. He's probably going to be around three pick. If there's, you know, Rice is good to go and Kelsey's back, he's probably around five pick.

[Adam]

Is anything scary about McConkey?

[Jamie]

Yeah, whoever they had, I mean, I, I disagree with Dave. I think they want to still be a ball control run it, you know, have run heavy team because I feel like when they got away from that is kind of what sort of helped Herbert but didn't necessarily help their team. And that was when Dobbins went down. I don't think that's Greg Roman's M.O. is to want to throw the ball over the place.

[Adam]

Yeah, well, that's the funny thing about, like, about the hire, right. And about Harbaugh and Roman is sure that was their history, but they've pretty much correct me if I'm wrong in the NFL level, they've always had mobile quarterbacks, right? They've had Kaepernick, Greg Roman had to Rod Taylor. If I believe, I believe. Right. And then he had Lamar Jackson, so he never had a Justin Herbert kind of guy. So it is interesting because Dave is right. There was definitely a shift. Was it because a philosophical thing or was it because of what Jamie said? J.K. dobbins got hurt and then they just had to throw the ball.

[Jamie]

Look, I, I think they're obviously adapting to the modern NFL and you know, your strength is Justin Herbert. You know, it's not J.K. dobbins as good as he was last year. Your strength is. Is Justin Herbert. Your strength is, you know, letting him, you know, open up a little bit more, finding some sort of balance. Makes sense. You know, we had this conversation last week. You know, Dave seemed to think they're going to be more. I don't want to put words in your mouth, but a little bit more on the upper half of pass rate and, and pass attempts. You know, I, I still think they're going to be in the latter half and not necessarily near the bottom, but closer to that than they will even to the middle, you know. So I just think it's going to depend on what they do personnel wise. You know, if they go out and they're aggressive and get T. Higgins and then they bring back Gus Edwards, I mean, clearly that's telling you what they want to do. If they go out and they, you know, draft a running back, sign a running back, don't add another receiver, then that kind of tells you what direction they're going to go, you know, so we'll find out, you know, I think which way they're leaning, but you just look at the history of what this coaching coordinator are, and I don't think they want to all of a sudden become this past dominant type of franchise.

[Adam]

I'll tell you what scares me is too strong. Yeah. Yeah. Well, I'll tell you what scares me a little bit about McConkey because even in those last 11 games, there's 11 games of the season was 10 games for him. He was only on pace for 125 targets. He was the number 11 wide receiver per game, 99 catches. This was his pace. 99 catches, 1500 yards, eight touchdowns on 124 targets. I don't think he can be that efficient. And he was in the slot 66% of the time. You usually don't see these great seasons from a guy in the slot that much. So I feel like his efficiency come down and if they get anyone that's good on the outside, I like maybe 125 targets is realistic for him. I just don't think he can be that good with that with 125 targets. So I don't know. Third round. I still would take him in the third round because he's awesome, but I'd be a little nervous about it.

[Dave]

Would you say that if the Chargers throw the ball 60% of the time that would be a surprise or is that sort of reasonable?

[Adam]

Feels like a little high. 57%.

[Dave]

That's where they were in their last eight games, including the playoffs.

[Adam]

They didn't throw that much. Where did that rank? Where's 60%?

[Dave]

That's almost right in the middle.

[Adam]

Okay then. No, I guess not. Jamie, still think that's a little high if they're right in the middle?

[Jamie]

Yeah. I mean, again, that's the stretch where Dobbins was not there and they had to adjust and look what happened in the playoffs.

[Dave]

What happened in the playoffs is their, their Herbert was Awful points in their playoff.

[Adam]

That's one bad game.

[Dave]

That's really what helped McConkey. If they avoid those situations, then there's. He had like almost 200 yards in the playoff game. It's never going to happen.

[Adam]

All right, let me take a break and we'll talk about breakouts, sleepers, wasted, late round picks, Keon Coleman's Ricky Pierce. Alls of the world. We'll be right back on F50. Some people just know they could save.

[Dave]

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[Adam]

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[Dave]

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[Adam]

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[Dave]

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[Adam]

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[Dave]

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[Adam]

Since you're new to H and R Block, we'll look at your returns from the last three years for any money.

[Jamie]

Your last guy might have missed for free.

[Dave]

I could get money back from last year.

[Adam]

You could. We'll find any mistakes. Could have really used that two years ago when I dated that mistake for five months. Don't leave money on the table.

[Dave]

Switch to H and R Block and get a free second look review.

[Adam]

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[Dave]

Results vary.

[Adam]

All tax situations are different. Fees apply.

[Dave]

If you have us file an amended.

[Adam]

Return, which sophomore wide receiver is most likely to be a breakout?

[Jamie]

Odinze.

[Dave]

That's a good one. To give a different name, I will say Ricky Piersol.

[Adam]

How close is. How close are Odunes? They and Marvin Harrison Jr.

[Jamie]

Not close for me right now.

[Dave]

More than 10 spots. Maybe even more than 12.

[Adam]

Okay, you guys want to talk about Odunze? Jamie, Anything give you hope for him? Other than the new coordinator and the.

[Jamie]

Potential of Keenan Allen leaving? I mean, look, better Caleb Williams, better offensive line, better coaching, you know, so all these things, hopefully, you know, getting their hands on a, you know, what. What seemed to be an elite talent coming into the, you know, draft process. Can he still be that guy? Can he be the guy that we saw at Washington? I mean, he showed some flashes of it, you know, once they got rid of, you know, changed play callers and Malcolm Brown took over. You know, there was those few games where Odunes, they flashed and they were giving him more opportunities. It just wasn't consistent. So can he take that step forward in his second year. You know, there's a lot of, again, things pointing in the right direction for him. So I think you have to be excited about it. I don't think he's going to be the number one receiver for Chicago. I think that will be D.J. moore. You know, I do think that if Alan's gone, that's going to help Cole Comet as well, you know, so that's another guy that can benefit with the coaching change based on what Ben Johnson did with, you know, LaPorta and I think what he'll do with his tight ends. So hopefully Odunze is, you know, someone that they build around. I can't imagine that they wouldn't. So it's a matter of is he the clear cut too or is he in the mix to be the two, you know, and if he's the clear cut two, then I think there's a lot of optimism. If he's, you know, Allen's back, they add somebody else in case Alan leaves and then Comet is more of a featured option. Then it could be a little bit tougher for Odunze to have what would be a breakout sophomore season. You know, he could still be a good second year receiver, just not somebody that. I think that's a consistent fantasy starter and I think that's what people are kind of hoping for. Same, same with Pearsall. You know, it's a great call that, you know, he's got this big opportunity in front of him also. I don't want to talk about Dave's guy, but you know, they're, they're very similar in terms of opportunity and, and, and ability to have that big second year.

[Dave]

The difference between them as of now is you kind of know the role that Pearsall can play. We saw it last year and I'm sure he'll maybe even add to it now that Debo Samuel's gone. He's not going to do like, you're not going to see Ricky Pierce all run the ball five times a game like, like Debo Samuel did. But a lot of opportunities are going to fall into his lap and that's an offense that we've come to know and love in fantasy and we trust in fantasy. We're going to trust Chicago's offense too, because Ben Johnson is a wizard. But I think the whole key for everybody in Chicago is having Caleb Williams a lot more refined, a lot more buttoned up and I think that that's what we're kind of hoping for right now. I can Imagine that there isn't a huge push being made at Hallis hall for that to happen. Even now where they're, they're giving coaching points to Caleb Williams. Stop doing this, Start doing that. Things that'll make him a more efficient quarterback. Maybe that means spoon feeding him things a little bit more. I don't know what it means. I don't know what Ben Johnson's going to tell him, but I would imagine he's not going to tell him. Oh, go out there and you know, play Superman like you've been doing your whole life. You know, now you've. I'm hoping that they tell him. You need to stay within the structure of the play and get the ball out of your hands quickly. We will give you those reads amongst DJ Moore, Roma Dunes, whoever else they have so that Caleb Williams can play more effectively and that'll lead to better things for not just DJ Moore, but also Roma Dunes A and I do think that Chicago will add other players to their offense. Keenan Allen might go away, but someone will replace him. The running backs could have an addition, but I think Odunze will be the number two target getter there. And I think that the other thing that we can trust Ben Johnson for is he will play to those strengths. And we know that Romo Dunes A is maybe we kind of talk about him in the same way we talk about Marvin Harrison. He's not going to blow you away with speed, but he can run. He's much better at being a good route runner, finding soft spots against zone coverage. A lot of things I said about Marvin, I think that they apply to Romo Dunes and Odunze is like a bigger version plus size wide receiver. So he can end up being a really good target earner in Chicago and absolutely could be a breakout star for Chicago. But it'll start with the quarterback and I kind of have more hope than not that Ben Johnson will make it happen.

[Adam]

Pierce all is really interesting because he just, I don't know how much he's gonna be on the field. The 49ers had the fourth or fifth lowest percentage of plays in three receiver sets or more. They're usually a two receiver set team. You think about the other teams below them who played fewer three receiver sets percentage wise. The Ravens, the Saints, the Dolphins, the Chiefs, and then there's the 49ers. So if you're going to be a good receiver on the 49ers, you got to be on the field a lot. So how does it work? How, what's the rotation When Iuk is back with Iuk, Jennings and Piersol, assuming Deebo Samuel is not on the team anymore.

[Jamie]

Fascinating question.

[Adam]

Yeah, it is. And obviously it's going to come down.

[Dave]

To how good Ayuk is and how healthy and how much he looks like his old self.

[Jamie]

Yeah, well, it's probably going to be what. What Pierce all does early in the season because they're going to baby Auk early, you know. Yeah.

[Dave]

I'd be shocked if he was given a full slate of reps.

[Jamie]

Right. You know, he. He may have, you know, one of the, you know, quick recovery ACL tears and. Or knee injuries. You know, I don't know exactly everything they tore there, but, you know, every. His recovery may be, you know, on track that he's ready for week one. And it could be Jennings and Pearsall. It could be Iuk and Jennings. It could be Iuk and Pearsall. You know, it's going to be interesting to find out. And I think the thing with Pearsall is I don't think anybody's going to say he's the. The best pass catcher of their group. That's going to be George Kittle. But he could. He could be too, you know, and if he's the best of the receivers, then why would you take him off the field? You know, so they're. They're trending in a different direction. You know, there's. There's no way you can compare him to Debo because they're just not the same players. He is closer to what Ayuk does. He's closer to what Jennings does in terms of, you know, what he can offer the 49ers. And so, you know, will they. Will they mix and match? Will they change? You know, again, this is an offense that. That could evolve a little bit as well, and maybe they do use some more three receiver sets because they could be a little bit different and more multidimensional in terms of how these guys run routes and what they do for Brock Purdy. There's also the Brock Purdy factor. You know, what if he's a holdout and we have a quarterback problem going into training camp? Then it's going to make these guys a little bit more, you know, interesting and dicey maybe in terms of how we approach the entire 49ers offense. But I think just in terms of Pearsall, like you want, I think look at him and we. We've kind of seen this in drafts, like he's getting drafted as the third receiver for the 49ers. I would take him as the second receiver for the 49ers, if not the first. I'm probably not going to draft a lot of Brandon Nyuk unless he falls. But comparing him to Jennings, like, I think there's a higher ceiling for Pearson Pierce.

[Adam]

All you know, I'm just gonna look at something real, real quick. I mean, kind of had this reputation of being just a short area slot. Well, not necessarily shorter, but a slot guy coming out of college. But he was actually looking at weeks seven through 18, which is when he started his first game was week seven. His slot rate was 34.4%. Juwan Jennings was 31 and Jennings had a 9.2 yard A dot and Pearsall had an 11.5 yard A dot. So I think that they could, you know, that he could potentially overtake Jennings. They play a similar role. It's not like he's this slot guy that's only gonna be on the field in three receiver sets. All right, so that's something to keep in mind. Late round sleeper of the sophomore wide receivers, who's your favorite late round sleeper?

[Dave]

Oh, I don't know if I have one favorite. There's so many that I, that I am intrigued by. Just start naming names. I'll go, I'll start with Jordan Whittington. With the Rams potentially having the Cooper cup role, that would be really exciting. And I'm pretty sure he's been drafted in every single one of our mocks so far.

[Adam]

All right, Whittington, Jamie, how about you Got a favorite late round sleeper?

[Jamie]

I mean, I don't want to say McMillan.

[Adam]

You know, you got Coleman.

[Dave]

Where was Millen going in our drafts? Because I'm not even sure. Was he like a double digit round pick?

[Adam]

Round eight and round seven. Eight and seven. I mean, I think Keon Coleman. We have, let's say his name here.

[Dave]

There's a lot of names to say here.

[Jamie]

I'll say Leggett, but Coleman.

[Adam]

Coleman. It wasn't really that late either. Round eight and one and round six in one. Wow, that's too early. You'll say Xavier Legate. Okay, Dave, am I pronouncing that right?

[Dave]

Legal Legate. And he could make that jump too. But again, one of these more physical, you know, stronger than fast types of wide receivers. He was a late bloomer in college and really only had occasional flashes in Carolina's offense. Could he be their number one guy? I mean, I, I, I don't know if I can even say yes to that. I mean, Adam Thielen was outperforming him toward the end of last season.

[Adam]

Most likely to be a waste of a late round pick.

[Jamie]

That will get drafted.

[Dave]

Yeah, AD and I. Mitchell really love the talent, but I'm just nervous about how many targets he'll get and what kind of targets they'll be. From Anthony Richardson.

[Jamie]

It could be McMillan if Godwin's back.

[Adam]

Yeah, I'll say Jalen Polk.

[Dave]

I don't think people are taking them.

[Jamie]

I mean if we're saying it's late round pick, we have to assume they might get.

[Adam]

He went around 14 in one of our drafts and he was the last.

[Jamie]

Could be that guy.

[Dave]

Winnington could be that guy. No doubt. How about a Broncos receiver? Could be that guy. Be it Devon Vale or Troy Franklin.

[Jamie]

I'd be surprised if they like it's drafted.

[Adam]

Who do you just skip over? I don't even think. I don't know that.

[Dave]

I feel like we're skipping over some guys.

[Adam]

Well, I think we need to talk more about. About Keon Coleman and mostly him. He didn't quite fit any of these categories. We'll come back to him in a second. Here's my last superlative waiver wire sleeper.

[Dave]

Roman.

[Adam]

Guys, we just named Roman Wilson for Dave and Pope for sure.

[Dave]

Sorry.

[Jamie]

Franklin for sure.

[Dave]

How about Jermaine Burton? Are we just dudes sitting around naming football players?

[Jamie]

Well, I think, you know, Burton was when you said late round sleeper. But I. I think at this point we're looking at T. Higgins coming back. So if T. Higgins is gone, then Burton's going to be very popular with a late round pick.

[Dave]

Yeah, very true.

[Adam]

So here's a guy, I mean you look at like Adonai Mitchell, right. It's just, it's tough to see with him. Josh Downs, Michael Pittman. It's tough to see him getting a lot of targets. But here's a guy who was taken right after him in the NFL draft. He was the next wide receiver off the board. Has a chance to step into the number two role on his team. Don't know who the quarterback will be. Anyone know who I'm talking about? Malachi Corley. Malachi Corley, obviously. Assuming Devonte Adams is not there anymore.

[Dave]

Sure.

[Adam]

We saw pretty much nothing.

[Dave]

He's like he's got. He can't play the Devonte Adams role or if he does, he's gonna stink at it. He's. He's more like Debo Samuel.

[Adam]

Yeah, I didn't say he was going to be the right.

[Dave]

So it's almost immaterial who the quarterback is because any, almost any quarterback can get him the ball if he's gonna run a bunch of short routes and you know, get pop passes and stuff like that.

[Jamie]

I'll be interested in Malik Washington for sure if Terry kills. Traded.

[Dave]

Oh my gosh, yes. That's a really good one.

[Adam]

By the way, the jets new offensive coordinator is Tanner Engstrand. He comes from the Lions. They're pretty good at getting the ball into the hands of, of good playmakers near the line of scrimmage. So see if Malachi Corley can take a leap. All right, let's talk about this, this stretch of the, of the NFL Draft, right? We had Marvin Harrison Jr. Malik neighbors, Roma Dunes in the top 10. Then late first round, into the early second round, we had Worthy Piersaw Legate, Keon Coleman, Lad McConkey, Jalen Polk, legit Coleman and Polk. Jamie, what are your expectations for them next year?

[Jamie]

I mean, Coleman's got such a wide range of expectations. You know, he could certainly take a step forward. Remember before his wrist injury, he was starting to look like a go to guy for Josh Allen. The wrist injury suffered against the Dolphins, I think it was like week eight or week nine. And then he can never get back on track. It just felt like he wasn't healthy. They didn't trust him. They were trying to work on Amari Cooper at that point. And so this is such an incomplete receiving core right now. He easily could be the alpha, but does he have that in his game? And that's what we'll find out. You know, so he was a guy that struggled to remember his, his was 40 yard time or was his cone drill. Something was slow at the combine. I forgot.

[Adam]

Yeah. So Coleman had the slowest 40 yard dash but the fastest gauntlet drill.

[Jamie]

Right, that was. Metcalf did the same thing.

[Dave]

No puka.

[Jamie]

Yeah, right. Metcalf was fast. So like does he have the ability to show that next gear? And look, he's got a quarterback that could easily make him a superstar. He's got a system that doesn't necessarily need the receiving core to have a superstar as we saw last year, you know, so, and they've, they've certainly spoken about that, but they're going to add somebody, you know, so do they go out and get a T. Higgins, a Chris Godwin, you know, one of the big names out there? Do they draft another receiver early and try and add another weapon to their offense? You know, so that's. So it's so up in the air about what Keon Coleman could Potentially become. So there it was. It was week nine when he suffered the wrist injury. Week seven, week eight, he started to, you know, show some flashes. If you're watching on YouTube and you see his little bars there on his player page there, there's just a lot to like about what he could. He could be. So he's certainly somebody you want to take a chance on. You said round six and one draft, that's too soon. Round eight, I think, is a good opportunity. You know, when you're talking about your fourth receiver, you know, so you get your. Your maybe like for me, that probably my fifth receiver. But, you know, looking at just adding a key piece to your bench to see what he can, you know, hopefully, you know, become. Because there is still so much upside.

[Dave]

He had four games with seven or more targets. He had at least 11.7 PPR in three of the four. 11.7, isn't that great, but let's call it a touchdown or over 100 yards in three of the four. I think the thing that's disgusting is last game of the year. Oh, maybe we even throw it out because it's the last game of the year against New England. Ten targets, two catches, maybe throw that out.

[Adam]

That's not good.

[Jamie]

That's how I didn't play.

[Adam]

Okay. Yeah, yeah. So Coleman, he did play.

[Jamie]

He kept his streak alive.

[Adam]

They played a snap. Let me. Let me give you the wide receivers that went around Keon Coleman in the. When the draft where he went with the last pick of round eight. Khalil Shakir, obviously going to go ahead of him. Darnell Mooney. Would you take. Would you take this guy over Keon Coleman? Darnell Mooney today.

[Jamie]

Yes.

[Dave]

Yeah.

[Adam]

Josh Downs.

[Dave]

No, I'll take Downs.

[Adam]

Jacoby Myers.

[Jamie]

Yes. Yes.

[Adam]

Keon Coleman. Amari Cooper, easily Coleman.

[Dave]

Agreed.

[Adam]

Christian Kirk.

[Jamie]

Coleman.

[Dave]

Probably Coleman.

[Adam]

Rashid Shahid.

[Jamie]

Coleman.

[Dave]

Coleman.

[Adam]

Demario Douglas.

[Jamie]

Coleman.

[Dave]

Keon.

[Adam]

Last one. Two more, actually. Ricky Piersoll, Pierce.

[Dave]

All I've got Pierce all over him now.

[Adam]

Two more. Keenan Allen.

[Jamie]

Coleman.

[Dave]

Coleman over Keenan Allen.

[Adam]

And Stefan Diggs.

[Dave]

No, I might go. Keenan Allen over Coleman. I guess I have Diggs over Coleman right now.

[Adam]

Jamie said Coleman over Diggs.

[Jamie]

Yep.

[Adam]

All right, and then how about legit your expectations, do you think? Legit? I mean, I feel like it's not so hard to see Keon Coleman having a really good season, you know, because of Josh Allen. Do we see that potential for league? It was the best case scenario.

[Jamie]

I don't think he has the same ceiling as Keon Coleman by any stretch, but he feels Like, I mean this was the comp coming in. Like he could be Debo Samuel if they use him the right way.

[Adam]

Yeah.

[Dave]

Liga.

[Adam]

No. Oh, league it. Debo Samuel.

[Jamie]

Yeah.

[Adam]

Okay. And then Jalen Polk.

[Dave]

I mean like Jalen Coker was outperforming them at points toward the end of the year. They're undrafted rookie. There's somebody listening right now saying, why haven't you talked about Jalen Coker yet?

[Adam]

And yeah, he.

[Dave]

He belongs on that late round list.

[Jamie]

Absolutely.

[Dave]

Guys to throw a dart at quicker than fast big guy. He's kind of like Xavier legate in that respect. I think league it's probably got a better pedigree and is a little bit more aggressive than Coker.

[Adam]

Yeah. Who else do you want to Talk about? Luke McCaffrey, Devon Vale?

[Dave]

I would be interested in McCaffrey if the commanders somehow go all off season without adding a big talent at wide receiver.

[Adam]

So I think we've more or less covered this, but I wanted to bring something up, Jamie. So remember I gave that stat about Roma Dunes a having one of the worst yards per route run rates by a rookie in the last 10 years. Well, now I did a search for 11 years and I included the 2014 rookie class, which is one of the best ever. Can you name the wide receiver who had a worse yards per route run than Roma? Dunze from the 2014 class and is actually good.

[Jamie]

Still active.

[Adam]

Still active, yeah.

[Jamie]

Brandon Cook.

[Adam]

Nope. He had the fifth worst yards per round run by a rookie of any rookie over the last 11 years with 50 or more targets. The only guy. No, Evans was really good. It's Devonte Adams.

[Jamie]

Oh, he's still active.

[Adam]

Adams had such a bad rookie season.

[Jamie]

Didn't he have like seven touchdowns his rookie season?

[Adam]

He had three.

[Jamie]

Three. So next year was the touchdown year?

[Adam]

I guess so. He had 38 catches, 446 yards and three touchdowns. Devonte Adams is always going to be the player that fantasy analysts will cite when they want to make a case for someone who hasn't done anything in their first two years in the NFL. Nico Collins and Devonte Adams. Adams was just absolutely invisible as a rookie and hall of Famer.

[Jamie]

All right.

[Adam]

Okay, great.

[Dave]

Good, Good show helps when you play with a great quarterback who kind of insists on using you more.

[Adam]

Yeah.

[Dave]

So Bryce Young takes a big step forward in his in in 2025 and he says I've got to throw to league it more. That'll. That'll be the path. That's the Devonte Adams path, if you believe in it. Draft.

[Adam]

Xavier Lee okay, that is it it for fantasy football today. We got FFT Express coming up if you're hanging around on YouTube YouTube.com fantasy football today. Otherwise we will talk to you on Wednesday. See you later everybody. Paramount Podcasts.

[Dave]

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