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Heath Cummings
This is fantasy football today from CBS Sports. What a play.
Jamie Erdahl
Can you believe this?
Heath Cummings
No, I can't. It's time to dominate your fantasy league. This is gon the distance. Now here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie and Heath.
Dave Richard
Start or sit for the AFC home game. Seven games to break down today. Can Brian Thomas Jr repeat his studly performance? Can Kamani Vidal repeat his studly performance? What are we going to get from Rashid Rice this week? Is this a Jerry Judy week? Finally, is J.K. dobbins going to bounce back? Because as someone famously once said, here come the Giants. We welcome you to fantasy football today presented by BetMGM. Make it legendary. Good morning, Jamie. Ready for week seven?
Jamie Erdahl
Yes, sir.
Dave Richard
All right, Thursday Night Football. We got our start of the week tonight. Pittsburgh at Cincinnati. Heath, you ready for week seven?
Heath Cummings
It's so exciting to look at the standings and see, like 75% of the league is between 2 and 4 and 4 and 2 in so many of my leagues. And it's kind of like the season starts now. Oh, it's exciting.
Dave Richard
I thought you were talking about the NFL.
Jamie Erdahl
No, I really.
Dave Richard
Okay. Any undefeated teams? Heath. I know Jamie has won.
Heath Cummings
I do not had the podcast league lost last week because I lost Puka.
Dave Richard
Oh yeah. Sorry about that. Okay. By the way, me, Dave, Jamie Heath, we're all like top five and scoring in the podcast league. Bring it. Let's get to some players that we love. Jamie, Jalen Warren talked about him yesterday. Jared Goff and Jameson Williams Monday night against Tampa Bay.
Jamie Erdahl
Yeah, I mean, Warren is in a great spot obviously taking on the Bengals. We'll see how this goes tonight. I'm always hesitant to use the start of the week on Thursday, but we'll see how it goes. But eight running backs have scored at least 14.1-PPR points against the Bengals. Cincinnati allowed 10 total touchdowns to the position. So Warren has. It's funny you. You talked about this before the year that Warren. I forget how many catches he had without catching a touchdown. He did that in week one. He did to score a rushing touchdown this year. So we'll see if he can snap that streak and finally find the end zone. But I think it's worth, you know, using Kenneth Ganiel as a flex as well as he's talked about on Tuesday or some point maybe yesterday. I think we talked about Tuesday and Wednesday. They've had so eight running backs have been at 14.1 PPR points or more. Nine running backs have been in 11 and a half PPR points or more against the Bengals. So they've actually had three teams where two running backs have been an 11 and a half PPR points or more. So I think Gainwell could be a flex. He's been at nine and a half PPR points in two of his last three games. The third one being the breakout game against Minnesota for the two Lions. Guys, this is the setup we love for these two being at home in what should be a high scoring affair. Goff, give him Credit. His last two games on the road, he's been over 20 fantasy points. Tampa Bay obviously has been struggling a little bit in terms of their past defense. I know they turned over Mac Jones twice last week, but they've given up over 300 yards passing each of their last two games. So golf should have an opportunity for a big week in this matchup. And then Jameson Williams, I love the fact that he had a season high in targets last week. Finally looked like they're starting to get him going a little bit. And again, just based on the matchup and the opportunity, this should be one of the better games for Jameson Williams if the script follows as plans. And he's typically been better at home than on the road as well. So like the setup for both of the Lions against Tampa Bay, I'm gonna.
Dave Richard
Give a stat that is probably just very small sample size and doesn't matter, but it's gonna make us feel better about golf. We already feel good about Jared Goff. So you look at the implied total for the Buccaneers in this game, it's around 23 points. So I looked at how does Jared Goff do at home last year because it hasn't happened yet. This year when the lions give up 23 or more points, there were three instances he scored 31 points, 28 points and 51 points in six point per passing touchdown leagues. So if the Bucks do their part, Jared Goff should do his part.
Jamie Erdahl
He's averaging over 30 points per game at home. It's a little skewed because he had the huge game against the Bears and the crappy game against the Browns, but.
Dave Richard
Yeah, but like. Right, but he has, he has that. The crazy high upside at home. It's. It's exciting. All right, Heath, you love Jakory Crosby. Merit at Dallas, Kamani Vidal against the Colts, and Chris Olave at Chicago.
Heath Cummings
Yeah, I think everybody was probably planning on starting Bill. He's been kind of a low end RB2 for us most weeks. I've got him ranked as a high end RB2 this week. One of the best rushers in the NFL averaging 5.7 yards per carry on efficiency basis. The Cowboys run defense is awful and this game has an over under of 54 and a half. You would like to start as the highest one of the year so far. You would like to start as many Commanders and Cowboys as possible. Kamani Vidal, I don't think you should expect another Dolphins outburst, although it looks like I am quite a bit higher on him than Dave and Jamie with. The thing that I love is the fact that he had a 67 rush share in that game. 21 total touches and it was not close. Who looked better? Between Vidal and Haskins, there should be no doubt he's the clear number one running back and a starter on your fantasy team this week. And number three is Chris Olave who's averaging over 10 targets per game. The Bears are giving up over two fantasy points per target to opposing wide receivers. That math suggests boom week for Chris Olave.
Dave Richard
All right, good stuff. Players to avoid. We'll go right back to Heath here. Chase Brown tonight, Tony Pollard against New England and Darren Waller against Cleveland.
Heath Cummings
So I think two of these people are like, yeah, I'd like to get away from them, but I don't know if they can. They're workhorse running backs. How do you sit workhorse running backs? Chase Brown and Tony Pollard don't look like workhorse running backs anymore. Taije Spears actually played more than Pollard and was better than Pollard last week. And I think that might be like a game script thing where Pollard Spears is just in more when they're chasing the score. Guess what? They're the Titans. They're going to be chasing the score a lot. Chase Brown has seen his snap share, which was his best attribute last year as a player, fall to 55 in three of his last four games. Samaj P. Ryan just continues to get more work. You do not want to start Chase Brown and Darren Waller. This is probably the most controversial of the takes. You see Dave and Jamie both have him at seventh. You look at the Browns against tight ends and it's like, oh, they're just middle of the pack. This is the one position that you can start against them. Jono Smith just starting tight ends. John O. Smith 4.8 points, T.J. hawkinson 9.4 Sam Laporta 6.9 Tucker Kraft 5.9 Mark Andrews 1.2. They've given up a bunch of point of against tight ends. Not a bunch, a league average amount because Noah Fitzpatrick or Noah Fant, John Fitzpatrick, Josh Oliver and Connor Hayward all scored touchdowns against them. The only tight end with more than 40 receiving yards against this defense, Darnell Washington. Maybe start Julian Hill.
Dave Richard
Well, so this, we need to bring this up with Waller. He's really not a tight end. He's lined up out wide on 44% of his routes. The next highest tight end is at 25% right about so Waller's not going to be covered like a typical tight end. I don't know if that changes anything for you. He also has the highest adot of all tight ends who have like 10 or more targets. He only has 12 targets. I had to lower the the threshold there, but he's just a different, he's a different player. He's basically their wide receiver too. I don't know if that that means anything. Like for example, Derwin James was not covering Darren Waller last week. On a handful of occasions he was. So he's just different.
Heath Cummings
Well, wide receiver twos haven't been good against the Brown side.
Dave Richard
Yeah, that's true. All right. And for Jamie, it's Matthew Stafford in London at Jacksonville, Ken Walker against Houston Monday and Tedro McMillan putting some sauce on him.
Jamie Erdahl
So Stafford obviously having Devonte Adams is A big difference. But you go back to last year in the five games that he did not have Puka Nakua, he scored 14.8 fantasy points or less in each outing. So don't love the setup without Puka here. Struggled last week, obviously, when Puka left the field, and so we don't expect Puka to play. I know Jacksonville's defense has been obviously hit or miss in terms of quarterbacks, but I'm gonna try to avoid Stafford if I can. In the case of McMillan, you mentioned it. Now this is interesting because a lot of receivers have obviously faced FA Southgarden already and. And done. Okay.
Dave Richard
Right.
Jamie Erdahl
For the most part, they scored around 12 or more PPR points, but it's been somewhat touchdown related. Pickens needed a touchdown, for example, to help his day against Sauce. It's just one of those things where I think you just lower expectations. I probably have him a little bit too low by comparison to everybody else. But we've seen what he has been for the most part. He's got one game where he scored a touchdown. It was last week. He has one game over 13 PPR points prior to that. And I think we're going to see maybe in that 11 to 12 range at best. If Sauce follows him, as probably expected, we'll see if Jalen Coker plays as well. Maybe a second option there on the field with Ken Walker. We've heard plenty of reports already that they're not going to change how they use their running back rotation. Houston's run defense is obviously very good, so for Walker, it's a flex option at best. I would prefer to sit him if I can.
Dave Richard
Let's stay on Tedro McMillan here. This is the last game that I have scheduled for us to talk about today, Carolina at the jets. Which means we'll get to it in about two and a half hours. Yeah, you did mention there's a lot of wide receivers get in the 12 fantasy point range against the Jets. The ones that get shadowed by.
Jamie Erdahl
There's only one that did not, which was Sutton.
Dave Richard
Yeah, so you're talking about DK Metcalf, Mike Evans, who actually caught his touchdown on a different cornerback. Not. Not gardner. Tyreek Hill, 6 catches, 67 yards. George Pickens had the deep touchdown. He only had four targets. The thing is, like, McMillan just hasn't been good good this year. Really. I mean, he's been okay. He scored more than 13.3 fantasy points in one game. It was last week against the best matchup in Fantasy, where he had 29 yards and two touchdowns. So I don't know. You said you might be too low on him. You have him 30th.
Jamie Erdahl
I.
Dave Richard
If I were ranking, I'd be with you. Dave and Heath have him, like, 20th, which isn't, you know, a huge endorsement this week because. Wide receivers. So bad. But yeah. Heath, go ahead. Your thoughts on McMillan.
Heath Cummings
I think when we say he hasn't been good this year, we should say he hasn't produced, like, great fantasy production.
Dave Richard
Right, sure. Good for.
Heath Cummings
Because when you shared that graphic yesterday about wide receivers and the predictivity of first downs and first downs per route run, it was a Ted Roll McMillan tweet.
Dave Richard
I actually did not share it on this show. I just shared it with you, so people might not. We never got to it. We never.
Heath Cummings
We never got to it. I thought you said we were going to put it on the show.
Dave Richard
I did.
Heath Cummings
On the show.
Dave Richard
I did. I meant first.
Heath Cummings
First down, first downs per route run are very predictive of future fantasy success. Tedro McMillan's been a top 10 wide receiver in those categories. He has been very good. He hasn't produced a lot of fantasy points, but if he was playing a regular matchup, he'd be a top 12 wide receiver for me. So I have downgraded him down to wide receiver. 20. I think the. The history of Sauce Gardener so far suggests guys are going to be a little bit worse than they have been this year. So maybe he will be a little bit worse, but if he's a little bit worse in terms of the way he's played, it's just, does he score a touchdown or not? And there aren't 20 wide receivers that I feel great about this week.
Dave Richard
Okay. It looks like Quentin Johnston might play this week. How many Chargers wide receivers would you start over, McMillan?
Heath Cummings
Oh, I don't want to deal with a headache. One more week off. Quentin Johnston. Probably.
Jamie Erdahl
All three for me.
Heath Cummings
Yeah, it wouldn't. It wouldn't be all three. It'd probably be lad and Johnston.
Jamie Erdahl
Okay.
Dave Richard
All right. Well, that's Tedro McMillan. So number two wide receiver for Heath and Dave. Currently a number three wide receiver for James. He won't.
Jamie Erdahl
He won't be a number two receiver. He may move up a spot or two. He'll be outside the top 25. Okay.
Dave Richard
Sunday at 8:30 in the morning, we have got a live show for you. 8:30 to 9:30. To set those lineups before the London game, go to YouTube.com fantasy football today. You can see pretty much all of our content there. Click the Live tab if you can't find one of our full length episodes and you'll see them there. And then after that we take a little break, we watch some football and then at 11am Eastern until noon Eastern we nope, sorry, from noon to 1. Now why would we do 11 and noon? That would make no sense. But noon to one we're back to answer your starter set questions. And also today at 1:00pm Eastern, CBS Sports Network. Dave, Jamie and Heath breaking down the rankings. We're not really necessarily going to talk. Oh, and Robert Turbin, excellent. We're not really going to talk trade today. That's the Wednesday thing. But I do have just some kind of rest of season notes on Ashton Genti, J.K. dobbins and Stefan Diggs, among others. So teasing that that'll be coming up in today's show. But football fans, you got to picture something right now. You got to close your eyes and picture this. You bet on your favorite player to score the first touchdown in the game, but his teammate scores instead. Now if this happens, BetMGM's got your back. They want to give you another chance at the end zone. With BetMGM's second chance promotion, you'll get your stake back if your first touchdown scorer scores second instead. So you bet on any pro football player to score the first touchdown of the game. If you're right, you win. If your player scores second, you get your stake back in cash. With BetMGM's second chance offer, you have a chance to keep the fun going after the first player crosses the goal line. Try a first touchdown scorer wager with confidence today. BetMGM make it legendary. Quick email of the Day from Jacob if you feel a sneeze coming on but it won't come out, try looking at a bright light. It can help trigger it. Jacob, thank you. I will try that very I still haven't gotten those sneezes back from from Tuesday that was.
Heath Cummings
Which is nice because you have a bright light right in front of your face.
Dave Richard
That is true.
Heath Cummings
I was just looked at it.
Dave Richard
I was already looking at it. You're right. It didn't work.
Jamie Erdahl
Well, it did work. Did it? You didn't sneeze? No.
Dave Richard
It's supposed to help you sneeze.
Jamie Erdahl
The bright light that's supposed to make you not sneeze?
Dave Richard
No, it's supposed to bring the sneeze out. Oh, didn't work.
Jamie Erdahl
I was told the opposite.
Dave Richard
Well, look, I'm just going by what Jacob says, our emailer of the day.
Heath Cummings
What about plastic?
Jamie Erdahl
Oh, man.
Dave Richard
All right, so we have some News and notes. You know, I think we should take a break. Let's take a break. Then we'll do news and notes. Wait till you see all the wide receiver news. My, oh my. We'll be right back.
Heath Cummings
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Jamie Erdahl
Brock Jones. Mac Purdy.
Dave Richard
Okay, fluid situation. We'll see Atlanta on Sunday night. J.J. mcCarthy, his ankle is not 100% yet. Carson Wentz practice in full. Who are you ranking at quarterback for Minnesota?
Jamie Erdahl
Carson Wentz in Philadelphia.
Heath Cummings
Neither one. No. I guess wins is 22. So yeah, wins.
Dave Richard
Kyler Murray was limited. We're going to keep an eye on that situation. Chuba Hubbard is going to be back this week. All signs point to that. He expects the play. They want to be a run heavy team. We don't know what the split's going to be. That game is again, the last game we're talking about is Kamani is. Sorry, is Rico dowdle a top 24 running back?
Jamie Erdahl
If Chuba is back, yes. He will be a low end number two running back and Chuba will be a flex.
Dave Richard
All right, you got to decide tonight. And it really looks like Chuba Hubbard is back this week. It's so Rico Dowdle or running back tonight?
Jamie Erdahl
Warren Dowdle. Chase Brown.
Heath Cummings
Yeah, I'll probably. I'll. I will have Dowdle ahead of Chase Brown for sure. I would say I'll probably have Warren ahead of him too.
Dave Richard
Okay. Zonova night was limited. Amari Mercado missed practice. Cardinals have Green Bay this week. Alvin Camara missed practice, but he's fine. He's going to miss Wednesday practices, I think, pretty regularly. Okay, here we go. You know the scene in Liar Liar where Jim Carrey gets pulled over for the speeding ticket and speaks really, really fast? That's kind of how I envision the wide receiver notes right now. Garrett Wilson and Josh Reynolds. Mispra. Josh Reynolds missed practice for the Jets. Calvin Ridley, mispractice. Calvin Austin is out tonight. Tutu Atwell was limited for the Rams. Puku, we expect him to play. Pukinaku had not expected to play. DJ Moore missed practice. Jerry Judy was limited. Hopefully he'll be fine. Darnell Mooney was limited. Maybe he makes it back this week at San Francisco Sunday night. Josh Downs is in the concussion protocol. You cannot expect to be starting Josh Downs at this point. That was a little bit of a surprise. Rasheed Rice. Andy Reid didn't say how much Rasheed Rice would play, but ESPN reports that Rice is going to get a full workload this week for Arizona. Marvin Harrison Jr. Was limited, but he's still in the concussion protocol. Zay Jones missed practice, and Michael Wilson was limited. Jacoby Myers missed practice with practice with toe and knee injuries. Christian Watson was limited. Darius Slayton missed practice. Not expecting him at the moment. Dave mentioned it's a little Jordan Humphrey revenge game. Don't forget about that. Quentin Johnston was limited. Jacksonville plans to get Travis Hunter more involved. You might want to see if he's available on your waiver wire. CD Lamb was limited. I think Kevonte Turpin was limited as well. We've been ranking CD Lamb. We're expecting him. Same with Mike Evans. Jalen Coker is expected to play this week.
Jamie Erdahl
Woohoo.
Dave Richard
Tara McLaurin is going to practice this week. Noah Brown is on IR for Washington, and Ricky Pierce all missed practice. Juwan Jennings was limited while speeding. Right. That's the end of that seed.
Jamie Erdahl
Thank you.
Heath Cummings
I thought this was a good response to that section.
Dave Richard
What was it?
Heath Cummings
But I'm supposed to not get that?
Dave Richard
Like, you're not gonna start Jerry Judy over Teddy roll McMillan, are you?
Jamie Erdahl
No. No. But they're five spots apart from me.
Dave Richard
You're not gonna start Jalen Coker over Ted Roll McMillan, are you?
Jamie Erdahl
No. All right.
Dave Richard
Travis Hunter.
Jamie Erdahl
No.
Heath Cummings
Come on.
Dave Richard
Okay. Kendrick Bourne.
Jamie Erdahl
Yes.
Heath Cummings
As of now, no. Assuming Kittle's back, right?
Dave Richard
Oh, speaking of tight ends, David and Joku missed practice. Brock Bowers missed practice. Right now, we're not expecting them. George Kittle practiced. We're hoping he's back. Jatavion Sanders was limited. And Tanner okay for Thursday night. Any interest in Noah Fant? Now you got Kasiki out. You got Tanner Hudson out. You got. I think Pittsburgh bad against tight ends if I recall. I see.
Heath Cummings
I think I noticed when I was doing waivers he was towards the top of the tight ends in the projections.
Dave Richard
They are. They give up the fourth most fantasy points to tight ends.
Jamie Erdahl
I mean it wouldn't surprise me if he plays well. He's a good DFS play for those of you who do Thursday night slates. But he's not at the top of my streaming list with all the guys that are available this week.
Dave Richard
All right, fine. Offensive line Giant center John Michael Schmitz is in the concussion protocol. Dallas guard Tyler Booker was limited. Dallas getting pretty healthy. Jacksonville, hopefully they get their center Robert Hainsey back. I was reading I think on ESPN they had a lot of trouble running the ball last week without Hainsey but he was limited. Austin Corbett for the Panthers he practiced in full. He has missed the last four games so that's great news. Defensively Trey Hendrickson is questionable for tonight's game. For for Cincinnati Phillies getting healthier. Jalen Carter practice in full. Cornerback Quinnion Mitchell was limited. That's big news for them as they're at Minnesota. Detroit. Brian Branches one game suspension was upheld but they should be getting a Lee McNeil back. Dan Campbell said their star defensive tackle Lee McNeil is freaking playing this week. He tore his ACL last year. Tennessee defensive tackle Tavandre Sweat is designated to return from ir. Their run defense has already gotten better. It's going to get a lot better when he comes back and the Colts have been really bad against wide receivers. But Kenny Moore slot corner. He missed the last three games. He was limited. One question for each game. Rams are at the Jaguars this game in London. Starter sit Brian Thomas Jr.
Jamie Erdahl
I would start him. His last game in Wembley Stadium was good last year. So 5 for 15 a touchdown. Believe look good last week. Look at actually last two weeks, you know and starting to play a little bit more like the Brian Thomas we were hoping to see. So I think if this was a normal week, everybody healthy is probably a high end number three receiver. But I think just given the fact of what he's shown the last two games and how this game could potentially unfold, number one receivers have actually done well against the Rams this year. So I think there's an opportunity for Thomas to continue that and hopefully be build off what we saw last week.
Heath Cummings
I have him Ranked the exact same spot that Jamie does.
Dave Richard
So everything Jamie said, McMillan or BTJ Thomas for me.
Heath Cummings
Still McMillan for me.
Dave Richard
Colts are at the Chargers. All right. Quentin Johnson being limited, we don't know if he's going to play. But would you start any of the Chargers wide receivers over Kamani Vidal.
Jamie Erdahl
If Johnston returns? No, I'd start by Dal over all of them. But if there is no Johnson, I'd go McConkey by Dal Keenan.
Heath Cummings
I will start by Dale.
Dave Richard
Overall, Miami is at Cleveland. Is it Jerry Judy week?
Jamie Erdahl
He's got a shot.
Heath Cummings
If not now, never.
Dave Richard
Yeah, you're on my roster for one more week.
Jamie Erdahl
Jerry Judy, I believe he's a South Florida kid, if I'm not mistaken. I can look that up.
Dave Richard
Oh, he is.
Heath Cummings
Yeah.
Jamie Erdahl
He's played the Dolphins three times. I believe two of them have been very good games.
Dave Richard
Okay, let's see. Heath, you still have 100 shares of Jerry Judy.
Jamie Erdahl
Six.
Dave Richard
Okay. I'm going to be starting him. Ooh, yeah. I'll start him over 2. 2. Atwell. I'll start him over Cameron Johnston, Johnson and Marvin Mims and Michael Carter. Okay. Yeah. That team's not doing so great. You might imagine we've got Las Vegas at Kansas City. Would you start a Raiders wide receiver or Xavier Worthy?
Jamie Erdahl
Worthy.
Heath Cummings
I might have Trey Tucker one spot ahead of him. Oh, let's see. I have Worthy two spots ahead of Tucker.
Dave Richard
All right, Xavier Worthy it is. You know, let me just bring this up. How you guys encouraged by Pacheco? What did you make of Pacheco? He got his first three snaps inside the five yard line. He ran five routes on third down. Last week he had run a combined four routes on third down in the first five games of the season. Do you think it's because maybe Kareem Hunt got a little banged up in the game? Or do you think they're giving Pacheco more.
Heath Cummings
More work?
Dave Richard
Important work?
Jamie Erdahl
I would love to see them give Pacheco more work just to see if he could maybe do something with it. But this is the team that gives up rushing touchdowns and little else. And if they're going to give up rushing touchdowns, it probably is going to be Kareem Hunt doing it. So I don't want to trust Pacheco just yet.
Heath Cummings
It was a season high 13 touches, so.
Dave Richard
Yeah, no, but it was more important that he got actually on the field on downs where he can score some fantasy points. We'll see if that was just a blip, obviously.
Heath Cummings
Yeah. If you told me that Kareem Hunt had 50 total yards and scored a touchdown this week. I would scored 12 fantasy points. I wouldn't be surprised. He's someone you might flex.
Dave Richard
All right, Giants are at Denver. Are you starting any Giants?
Jamie Erdahl
Scatter Boo.
Heath Cummings
Scatter Boo is a low end RB. 2 Wondale is a high end wide receiver.
Jamie Erdahl
3.
Dave Richard
Scatter Boo or Dowdle, assuming Chubbard plays, probably be scatterable. All right, the Patriots are at the Titans. Is Drake May the only must start player in this game?
Jamie Erdahl
Yeah, I guess so. I mean I think Diggs is close but number three receiver at best. So I would say May is probably the only one that qualifies. Patriots dst. Yeah, there you go.
Dave Richard
Yeah, I guess I'll just give my quick Stefan Diggs sort of rest of season thing here. Last week was such a bad game for him and I, I have trouble with this stat but the Saints are actually really, really good against slot wide receivers. Going into the game they were allowing the second fewest receiving yards to slot wide receivers. They did well against Wandell Robinson, Cooper cup, now Stefan Diggs. So maybe it was a bad matchup for him. But Heath, you mentioned that first down stat got wide receivers who gain a lot of first downs. They typically, you know, it's a good indicator for future fantasy points. That was a Jacob Gibbs tweet citing Ryan Heath of fantasy points data. So I looked at the list of last year's leaders and this year's leaders and you do get, you know, some of the studs on there, you know the, the pukas of the world, whatever. But Stefan Diggs is also a name that was on there last year and this year in terms of first downs per route run. So I thought that was interesting.
Heath Cummings
Heath, I, I will say that's very interesting and I think don't sit him just because last week he's a high end wide receiver. 3 For me, I, I also think that the total first downs are more predictive than the first downs per route run.
Dave Richard
Oh well, he's probably not that high there because he hasn't played because he.
Heath Cummings
Doesn'T run as many routes and you don't score as many fantasy points if you don't run as many routes.
Dave Richard
But, but last week he had 71% route rate. We would hope for, for better. Two, three weeks ago he had an 82% route rate. Then it went down to 64%. So I would like to say buy low on digs, but I would say that it's just, you know, I don't, I don't know that people really Love digs so you might be able to get them for pretty cheap.
Heath Cummings
And we just don't know that this offense is going to function with a true number one alpha wide receiver. It just kind of bounces around between guys depending on the matchup, which is probably a good way to do it.
Dave Richard
All right, Carolina's at the Jets. Start or sit Justin Fields.
Jamie Erdahl
Low end starter for me.
Heath Cummings
I, I can't. I, I got is and this is a guy I probably have almost as much of of as I have Jerry Judy. So in super flex leagues obviously you're going to have to start him. I just. Who's he throwing to and can he score 20 fantasy points without throwing? Maybe.
Jamie Erdahl
Yeah. You want, you want me to give my age or set.
Dave Richard
Oh, this is some azer stat right here.
Jamie Erdahl
So he's had three games over 29 fantasy points. Right. Three best games of the season. If you take out Garrett Wilson's production in those games and I rounded up all three of them so it's 10, 10 and nine. Yeah. Like a 95 game, 95 yard game and a touchdown. So take out the yards in the touchdown, he would be averaging almost exactly 20 fantasy points per game. That's with no replacement value whatsoever. So just taking Garrett Wilson's numbers off the table. So looking at this Panthers defense, you said can he do it without having, without throwing the ball? I mean he's obviously gonna throw the ball. So can he cobble together, let's just say 15 fantasy points as a passer. And the reason I bring that number up is There have been two quarterbacks that have run for 3.4 fantasy points or have scored 3.4 fantasy points or more with just their rushing totals loan against the Panthers, I think Fields can get there. So if he can be in that four to five point per game range, four to five points with his rushing totals.
Dave Richard
But that's just an answer.
Jamie Erdahl
Can he get you 15 or so fantasy points with his passing? I think I'll be around 20 fancy.
Heath Cummings
Points but that, that's how I feel is like that was a lot of gymnastics to can we get him to score 20 fantasy points?
Dave Richard
Yeah, that's right.
Heath Cummings
Like, and that's normally I'm thinking, man, if things go right for Justin Fields, he might score 30. And now it feels like man, if everything goes right he might get us to 20.
Jamie Erdahl
Well it feels like that's where Sportsline.
Dave Richard
Has it has him six. Holy moly.
Jamie Erdahl
Yeah.
Dave Richard
Wow. Yeah, look, he mean he's had big games without great receivers before, but this is the worst Roster right now. My goodness. Okay, let's go to the games. Actually Heath, we can decide. Jackson Darter Justin Fields 4 point per passing touchdown.
Heath Cummings
It would definitely be Justin Fields.
Dave Richard
Okay, probably. Rams are at the Jaguars. Stat of the game. The Rams have not allowed a rushing touchdown to a running back yet. But here's good news for ETN and something to think about for his rest of season value. His targets have gone up lately. It is directly coinciding, coincidence or not. I don't think coincidence. With the absence of Brenton Strange, Trevor Lawrence's target percentage to tight ends has plummeted since the Strange injury and some of it's going to Travis etn. Do you guys like Travis etn? In fact, why don't we just talk about the two running backs because these are. The Jaguars have a very good run defense. The Rams again haven't given up a rushing touchdown to a running back. ETN struggled last week. Are these guys easy starts? Jamie?
Jamie Erdahl
Definitely. They're. They're starters. I like Williams better than. Better than etn. I think just in the case of etn, like if he doesn't score and clearly he could, but just based on the track record like I thought when the Ravens for example, got down inside the three last week, whatever it was, and Derrick Henry had been playing very well, like they just did not let him in the end zone, you know, and they tried for sure. Baltimore did well.
Dave Richard
They tried with Mark Andrews last week. Right. That was when they.
Jamie Erdahl
Right. I, I think just in the case of how this game could go, like ETN's is a startable number two running back, but when he's been bad, he's been bad. And so I don't know if this is going to be one of his best games.
Dave Richard
Okay. Scatter etn Heath ETN over.
Heath Cummings
Scatter Boo Chiron over both of them by quite a bit. I'm hopeful that maybe we see a little bump in targets for Kyron Williams. He has one, one big reception game with Pukin out there to throw two. Maybe we get four catches for Kyron instead of two.
Dave Richard
Yeah, hopeful is the way to do it. You shouldn't bank on it because last year he played five games without Puka and four and a half of those games without cup and he had some games with with catches and some games with like a zero. So you shouldn't.
Heath Cummings
The nice thing is he doesn't have a zero this year and he has at least two in each of his last five games.
Jamie Erdahl
Yeah, there's also the potential of no Blake Quorum who's been limited in practice and so do they give him all the work or do they actually mix in Dark West Hunter, how do you.
Dave Richard
Feel about the quarterback seat? Stafford and Lawrence, who do you like better?
Heath Cummings
I don't want to start Trevor Lawrence at all. Stafford is a borderline QB one. I really struggle with Stafford versus Rogers. Those guys in the in the 10, 11, 12 range. Stafford versus Bo Nick Stafford versus Daniel Jones. But right now I've got him as a low end starter.
Dave Richard
Interesting. Okay Jamie, do you have Stafford as a starter?
Jamie Erdahl
I do not. Again, we started the show with three players I don't like and.
Dave Richard
Right.
Jamie Erdahl
Staffers one.
Dave Richard
So that. So that's a no then. Okay. Heath, without Puka you still. All right. Who are some guys are starting Stafford.
Heath Cummings
Over well again it's. I don't think it's a very good. I would say there's probably 10 quarterbacks this week that I actually want to start and Matthew Stafford is not one of them. I've got him right now one spot ahead of Rogers who's my 12th quarterback. So that tells you quite a bit about the position. I would start him over Nicks. I would start him over Jones. I start him over Fields.
Jamie Erdahl
Okay.
Dave Richard
All right. And Jamie is just not feeling it 17th for Matthew Stafford. Wide receivers. Devonte Adams is an easy one. We're going to start Devonte Adams. Brian Thomas Jr. Is a number two wide receiver. We're going to mostly start him ETN or Brian Thomas Jr. Who do you like better?
Jamie Erdahl
I would go Thomas and ppr.
Heath Cummings
I think I have ETN just a little bit higher but Thomas probably has more upside. It's just hard to trust it.
Jamie Erdahl
Yeah.
Heath Cummings
ETN for me.
Dave Richard
Who are the sleepers in this game?
Heath Cummings
Jordan Whittington.
Jamie Erdahl
If there's no 22 out well I would agree if 22 out well plays I would take Atwell over Whittington.
Dave Richard
Is there. What?
Jamie Erdahl
Why? I think there's going to be opportunities for him to be on the field and when he's been on the field and gotten targets he's been productive and.
Dave Richard
He is a kind of a big play. Yeah. We'll talk about. So Atwell last year his big play rate is explosive play rate 25.8% so 20, 26 of his targets ended up in big plays which I think is 17 or more yards catch. Puka Nakua was 26.4% so they were almost even. And Tutu Atwell was seventh best among wide receivers with 50 or more targets. The Jaguars give up almost. I think the Cowboys are the only team that consistently give up more big plays than the Jacksonville Jaguars. So in that respect, it's a. It's a good matchup for Atwell. Not that he's a must start by any means.
Jamie Erdahl
He's.
Dave Richard
You prefer Whittington?
Heath Cummings
I think right now I do. Let's see what Tutu's health status is later in the week.
Dave Richard
Okay. And then Higby. In a week full of good tight end sleepers, where did he end up in your rankings?
Heath Cummings
Jamie Higby?
Jamie Erdahl
He's around like tight end 16 or 17. It's not a lot of confidence, obviously, because he's had one good game, but there's an opportunity here against a defense that I think can have. He could have some success again. So he's in that low end streaming conversation. I'd put him ahead of Noah Fant, but that's, you know, not saying very much. So like Fannin's ahead of him. I'm struggling between him and Mayor just because of the matchup for Mayor, but like I take Ingram over him, for example, if given the choice. But I think Higby's a great streaming option if you're stuck.
Dave Richard
All right, that's pretty much it for this game. The Rams DST. I really hate this week for DSTs because some of the good ones have bad matchups. Like the Rams, Jacksonville, they are pretty tough matchup. They're 11th against DSTS. They did get sacked seven times last week, but before that they really weren't giving up a lot of sacks. But you're going to start the Rams dst. I have a few comments for this game. Stafford or Lawrence? I think we answered that. So Stafford, Stafford.
Jamie Erdahl
I'm not. I'm not so far off. Lawrence has played very well the last two weeks, fan. His fancy production have been good in the last two weeks. So wouldn't surprise me if Lawrence is better. I probably would still start Stafford, but they're closer.
Dave Richard
Stafford, Purdy or McCarthy?
Jamie Erdahl
Purdy if he starts.
Dave Richard
Purdy if he starts Goff, Rogers or.
Jamie Erdahl
Stafford, in that order.
Heath Cummings
I'd go golf.
Dave Richard
Yeah. Heath would go golf. Stafford, Rogers. Jamie would go golf. Rogers, Stafford. All right, next game, Colts at Chargers. Ooh, I've got a fun little surprise for you guys. Let's break out.
Jamie Erdahl
Good.
Dave Richard
The tear maker.
Jamie Erdahl
Yes.
Dave Richard
We're gonna put players in the chat.
Jamie Erdahl
It's not really a surprise.
Dave Richard
Surprise. I was talking to the audience, Jamie. All right, so if you're watching, we've got five tiers and we've got basically every player in this game, Tier one is going to be what at must start. Not even a question.
Heath Cummings
Jonathan Taylor.
Dave Richard
Yeah. Who's in Tier one? Jonathan Taylor's in Tier one. Anyone else?
Heath Cummings
Basically, like, if we're putting Jonathan Taylor in Tier one, he should be by himself. Well, two can also be guys we're.
Dave Richard
Starting based on your rankings. I feel like. Am I wrong? Justin Herbert. Well, I think.
Jamie Erdahl
I think Taylor deserves to be in. In Tier one by himself.
Dave Richard
Okay.
Jamie Erdahl
Tier two is going to be an interesting one.
Dave Richard
All right. Oh, Tyler Warren's in Tier one, right?
Jamie Erdahl
No, not this week. Yeah.
Dave Richard
You're not sitting Tyler Ward. I know he's got a tough.
Jamie Erdahl
No, I don't think Tier two, you're sitting.
Dave Richard
Okay, so Tier two is. Is you must start, but not.
Jamie Erdahl
Not Tier one is. You're counting on this guy to win you your week.
Dave Richard
Okay, Tier two is must start. So let's throw Tyler, we go with Warren in Tier 2 and Herbert.
Heath Cummings
And I'd say Vidal.
Jamie Erdahl
And I would say Pittman.
Dave Richard
Oh, I hope. Wait, wait just a minute there.
Jamie Erdahl
Not sure if he's downs there. Yes, 100.
Dave Richard
Heath is very low on Michael Pittman.
Heath Cummings
It was late last night, I think. Or mid last night. I haven't updated with Josh Downs out yet. I don't know that I'll get Pittman quite that high. But I wouldn't argue too much. He's probably going to be a tier three guy for me.
Dave Richard
Okay, so. But he can't be the only wide receiver because that means he's the best wide receiver in this game. He can't be the only one in tier two.
Jamie Erdahl
So again, are we saying Johnston is in or Johnston is out?
Dave Richard
Yeah, that's a tough one here. I, I think, look, I, I think let's rank him as if Johnston's in because if Johnson's out, we know that lad McConkey is. Is a tier two guy at that point. Like he is an absolute must start. And Keenan Allen would get a bump too. Although, I mean, you gotta look at Keenan Allen. The yards are just not there for him.
Jamie Erdahl
He.
Dave Richard
It's like he better score a touchdown. But let's. This is a much harder game if Quentin Johnston plays. So if Quentin Johnston plays, where are we putting the Chargers wide receivers if Quinn Johnson plays?
Jamie Erdahl
I think you put all three in tier three and Michael Pittman in tier three.
Heath Cummings
I, I love that. Put all four wide receivers in tier three.
Dave Richard
Which means what to you exactly?
Jamie Erdahl
Maybe starts.
Heath Cummings
I don't know which of these guys is going to be better.
Dave Richard
Right. I mean, realistically Johnston, Pittman, McConkey and Keenan Allen are going to be started in certainly more than half the leagues. Probably 70 or higher.
Jamie Erdahl
That's exactly the number I was gonna say. I say all four of these guys are probably going to be 70 started or more.
Heath Cummings
And do we put Vidal in two or three? I've been.
Jamie Erdahl
I think Vidal, for the purpose of what this week is. He goes into.
Dave Richard
Yeah, right. So we feel more confident in Kamani Vidal than we do the wide receivers, basically, is what we're saying here.
Jamie Erdahl
Yeah, you asked the question before and we told you that.
Dave Richard
Yeah, I know, but look, I mean, that was honestly 30 minutes ago. But no, 20. Yeah, but. But it changes because I think one of you said if Johnston's out, you're going to start McConkey over Vidal.
Jamie Erdahl
Yes.
Heath Cummings
Too, if Johnston was out.
Jamie Erdahl
Correct.
Dave Richard
Now, what's the deal with Warren? If you have Warren, don't. You don't need to look for replacements. But the Chargers have been elite against tight ends. This is, you know, Kelsey, 47 yards and a touchdown. Bowers, 38 yards. Ertz, one target. Waller, three targets. Caught a touchdown. Theo Johnson did catch a touchdown, but they've been really, really good. But he's Tyler Warren, obviously. All right, now, before we get to Daniel Jones, I do want to ask you about Herbert, because he had a solid game against the Dolphins, and the Colts have not really been a tough matchup at all. They haven't stopped any good quarterbacks.
Heath Cummings
But I don't.
Dave Richard
I don't know. I don't really like, roll out of bed feeling that good about Justin Herbert right now with the state of their offensive line. And I don't think he's. He just hasn't been that good. Like before last week he had three straight games with less than 17 fantasy points, and last week he played the Dolphins well.
Jamie Erdahl
So the way that I kind of view this passing game with Johnston or without Johnston, I don't think Vidal is going to be as good. He was great against Miami. And yes, the Colts matchup is not that difficult, but I also think that it's going to be tougher for him because that defense is better. So I would expect a little bit more out of Justin Herbert this week. And so I think he has one of his better games now. Does that mean he's close to what he was in weeks one and two? He was MVP level at that point. I think he's probably in that 22 to 24 point per game range. So the, the floor is what we got last week.
Heath Cummings
It's just so hard when a guy that we think is very talented and is throwing 36 passes a game to not rank him as a must start. There was a couple of bad weeks. Definitely had some touchdown problems. Three straight weeks with just one touchdown. But I think he's probably gonna throw for more than 250 yards and throw two touchdown passes. And that's a. That's a pretty close to a must start type quarterback.
Dave Richard
Okay, I kind of like Daniel Jones this week. Do you guys?
Jamie Erdahl
No. No.
Dave Richard
All right, what tier is he going in?
Jamie Erdahl
Four. Tier four, maybe. Starter.
Dave Richard
Okay, so Daniel Jones, 16th for Jamie, 14th for Heath, 10th for Dave. Coming off a big game against Arizona, it's fine. We'll just. Guys can sit him.
Jamie Erdahl
I mean, just for what it's worth, he has not been good on the road. His fantasy production has not been on the road. And the Chargers have been very good against quarterbacks.
Dave Richard
The Chargers, yeah. Fifth best against quarterbacks. Bo Nicks, they held to 15.4 points. Jaden Daniels, 19.1 to a 8.6. You're absolutely right. It is a tough matchup. Stafford, Lawrence and Daniel Jones. Who's your favorite?
Heath Cummings
Jumped Stafford for me. Okay.
Jamie Erdahl
It would be Stafford at Puka Place.
Dave Richard
All right. But that's kind of where they're at. They're just not enthused about him. All right, so it gives us. So Thomas, let's throw Daniel Jones in tier four. Let's throw Hassan Haskins in tier five.
Heath Cummings
Yep.
Dave Richard
What about a Rendez Gadston?
Jamie Erdahl
I think Gadston belongs in Tier 4.
Heath Cummings
With the 17 other maybe starters.
Jamie Erdahl
Well, I'll say this. Gadsden belongs in Tier 4 if Johnston is out. If Johnston plays, then Gaston's Tier 5.
Dave Richard
And then the last one is a tough one. Obviously he has to play because he's at the concussion protocol right now, but where would you put Josh Downs?
Jamie Erdahl
Tier 4?
Heath Cummings
Yeah, I'd probably have Downs and Pittman in Tier 4 if Downs was playing.
Dave Richard
Okay, so should we talk about Pittman a little bit more? Yeah, I mean, he. I know what your concern is. I mean, the targets just haven't really been there for him and he just had a terrible game and he didn't score. So that's. That's it, right?
Heath Cummings
I mean, just 41 or fewer receiving yards in four of his last five games.
Jamie Erdahl
Wow.
Heath Cummings
If. But if Downs is out, then you just probably forget about that and assume that he's going to have. He's got two games this year with more than six targets. Six targets does not make a must Start fantasy wide receiver. But I would assume if Downs is out, he's gonna have more than six targets and he's gonna be someone you start.
Jamie Erdahl
All right, I'll go back to. You know, I like narratives. USC guy. Last time he played in Los Angeles, earlier this season, week four, he had 10 targets in that game. So they were trying to get him clearly involved. Number one receivers against the Chargers this season, the great Marquis Brown, Cortland Sutton, Debo Samuel, and Jalen Waddle. I only bring up Marquis Brown because he had a billion targets in that game in Brazil. 15 and a half PPR points or more against this defense.
Dave Richard
Yeah, so that's. Yeah, I mean, that's basically like you're talking about the Chargers against wide receivers. Right.
Jamie Erdahl
The Chargers against number one wide receivers have been bad, and Pittman clearly will be the number one wide receiver. And if we're going based on how teams approach the Chargers, we see the targets down for the tight ends. And so if the targets are down for Warren and there's no Josh Downs, obviously Daniel Jones is gonna lean on Michael Pippen.
Dave Richard
Okay, fair enough. I am losing a little faith in Keenan Allen. I don't know how you guys feel about that. Three straight games, I think under 60 yards. Two of those games, way under 60 yards. Just.
Jamie Erdahl
Targets haven't gone away, though.
Dave Richard
Yeah, he's been pretty touched. He's been kind of like Pittman with more targets, but like just very touchdown dependent. See, who would we start over him? How about some running backs versus Keenan Allen? Would you start Travis ETN or Keenan Allen? You know, it's just really hard. Why don't we. Why don't we talk about this tomorrow when we get another Quentin Johnson update? Because it changes everything.
Heath Cummings
And. And I think like to say that he's not really been like. Like the last two of the last three games have been like Michael Pittman, but he's still at 58 or more yards in four of six games this year and three of his last five.
Dave Richard
Yeah, I guess I just meant the touchdowns really help both.
Heath Cummings
Right? It's. They had three in the first three weeks and zero in the last three. I don't know how predictive that is. I think it's probably 50.
Jamie Erdahl
50.
Dave Richard
Would you start DST in this game?
Jamie Erdahl
Colts as a low end starter just because of the Chargers offensive line. So they'll probably get some sacks. But I would prefer to avoid. I certainly would prefer to avoid the Chargers. I mean, the one thing about the Colts, they don't turn the ball over. Three turnovers on the season, I believe or four at most. I think it's three interceptions and and one fumble or maybe two interceptions and one fumble. And they don't give up sacks. I think it's five sacks allowed on the season.
Dave Richard
Yeah.
Jamie Erdahl
So it's not a great matchup for the Chargers. And they were great last week. Three interceptions against tua. But this is one I think you get away from. I, I would I just say this about the Chargers. Receivers like the Colts have been bad against wide receivers.
Dave Richard
Yes, yes, they are getting Kenny more back. Well, maybe getting Kenny more back. But you're absolutely right. Third most fantasy points allowed to receivers. I don't think their defense is that good. It was good statistically but I think like Arizona with Jacoby preset put up a pretty big number. Anyway, I will call my shot and say I think Daniel Jones is going to do well. But I totally understand where you guys are coming from. And the reason, I think the reason he's having such a good season is he is the least sacked quarterback. His sac rate and he's one of the most blitzed quarterbacks. It's not just the offensive line. Offense lines is good. But he's also making good decisions this year. Getting rid of the ball. That's a number that really jumps out because that guy.
Heath Cummings
I wish, I wish I knew what the the secret sauce was of. Is Daniel Jones going to be participating in the running game or not? Yeah, because Jamie mentioned he's been bad on the road. He's also. Those are the games he didn't run.
Jamie Erdahl
Yeah.
Dave Richard
All right, so let's take a break. We got five more games left. We'll speed it up a bit. We'll be right back with Miami and Cleveland.
Heath Cummings
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Dave Richard
A meme or milestone. All protected with end to end encryption. It's time for WhatsApp message privately with everyone. Learn more@WhatsApp.com Carolina basketball isn't just a program, it's a legacy. I'm John Henson and we'll be the host of Tar Heel247, a UNC basketball podcast for fans who bleed Carolina blue. Each week, I'll be joined by players, coaches and insiders for real, unfiltered conversations about the team, the tradition, maybe some funny stories and everything in between. No filters, no Fluff. Just hoop talk the Tar Heel way. Subscribe now to Tar Heel247@ UNC Basketball Podcast or wherever you get your podcast at. We're going to have a good time. Let's get ready to go. This episode is brought to you by State Farm. Listening to this podcast. Smart move. Being financially savvy. Smart move. Another smart move. Having State Farm help you create a competitive price when you choose to bundle home and auto bundling. Just another way to save with a personal price plan. Like a good neighbor, State Farm is there. Prices are based on rating plans that vary by state. Coverage options are selected by the customer. Availability, amount of discounts and savings and eligibility vary by state. We are back. Miami's at Cleveland. Stat of the game number one. The Dolphins have allowed 16.1 or more PPR fantasy points to a running back in five straight games. Ramandre Stevenson, James Cook, Breeze Hall, Rico Dowdle, and Kamani Vidal. Do you think Quinshon Judkins will score 16.1 or more PPR fantasy points?
Heath Cummings
Yes.
Jamie Erdahl
Yes.
Dave Richard
Okay. He is tier one, then. We don't need the tier maker for that. Start Quinshon Judkins. Stat of the game number two. The Dolphins have allowed 65 yards or a touchdown to a tight end in five of six games.
Jamie Erdahl
Whoo.
Dave Richard
Oh, man. You wouldn't start Harold Fanning over Tyler Warren, would you?
Jamie Erdahl
No, I believe they're back to back for me.
Dave Richard
All right. But we like Harold Fannin. Where is he in the rankings? He's fanning over everyone.
Heath Cummings
I think he's eight.
Dave Richard
All right, start him. Which Dolphins are you starting confidently for? J For Heath, it's probably going to be two guys for Jamie. Three.
Heath Cummings
HN and Waddle.
Jamie Erdahl
HN and Waddle and Waller.
Dave Richard
Okay. Do you want to say anything about Wally? You have faith in Waller this week?
Jamie Erdahl
No, I think you said it. I mean, he's not a traditional tight end. So with. With what this team looks like right now, how I expect this game to be, I don't think that this is not a hn is going to run well game. This is a chance going to have to be effective in the passing game. And so I don't think the Dolphins are like chasing points at the scoreboard, but I think they're playing from behind. And so based on that, I think Waller's targets will be closer to where they've been prior to last week. No. 5 or 6.
Dave Richard
The tight end with the highest A dot is not my friend. I hate that.
Heath Cummings
But yeah. And I don't, like, really A high dot against the Browns pass rush. And I think like most tight ends have to score a touchdown to be good for fantasy, especially guys that are outside the top three or four. And the Dolphins, like for the first time all year, the Browns are favored. The Dolphins have an implied total of.
Dave Richard
18 and it's a really tough matchup for A Chan. I mean, this team is incredible against running backs. They were great against Jacobs. They were great against Henry. They were great against. Good against Jordan Mason, good against the Steelers guys. The only guys that really got them, the only guy was Gibbs. You can't sit a Chan, but it could be his worst game. Okay. On the other side of the ball, Judkins is a must start. Where's Judy this week? Yeah, where's Judy this week?
Heath Cummings
Heath, wide receiver, 40ish. Maybe closer to like somewhere between 36 and 40 that I don't really understand it, but it's kind of a thing that's going around the entire Browns offense right now is they just drop so many passes and Judy's had plenty of opportunities. He gets eight targets in a lot of games. I think he had 13 last week. But he's playing terrible football right now and visibly frustrated about it. Hopefully he catches the ball. He doesn't really do any good to have terrible coverage and be wide open if you're still going to drop it.
Dave Richard
Yeah, no, he had a couple of drops last week. The team had a lot of drops last week. They really let Dylan Gabriel down. He also. Judy had a chunk play, probably about 20 yards called back on a penalty. But he had those 13 targets and.
Jamie Erdahl
The joke was probably not there, right?
Dave Richard
Yeah, and the joke is out, most likely. So Fanon, Jamie, who are some guys you'd start fanning over?
Jamie Erdahl
I start him over. Kelsey, I'd start him over. Waller, I'd start him over. Laporta, I'd start him over. Goddard and start him over. A lot of guys. I mean, 14 targets in his last two games. Obviously a big spike game last week after Najoku got hurt early in the game. Dolphins are terrible against tight ends like this. Should be a great game for Harold.
Heath Cummings
Phantom just to that Brown's point. Trevor Lawrence leads all quarterbacks this year with 16 passes dropped. Joe Flacco and Dylan Gabriel have had 20 passes dropped.
Dave Richard
Oh, my. Yeah, wild. I mean, they throw a lot, so that's good. But that's wild. Good point. Good stat. Heath has fan in ahead of Tucker Kraft. Jamie has them back to back with Kraft one spot higher. Okay, is there anything I'm Missing in this game. Like tua. Any interest in tua?
Jamie Erdahl
No. I mean, coming off the disappointing game he just had and now having to face the Browns, I mean, this is the Mike McDaniel gets fired game. You know you hate to say that, but after everything that's unfolded, they lose this game, I can't imagine he survives. So he had to backtrack off of what he said last week. Like this is just disaster in Miami right now. Absolute disaster.
Dave Richard
I think they're going to fire their defensive coordinator.
Heath Cummings
And then there was a report that, that Ross is not firing McDaniel. Right. Like maybe he will.
Jamie Erdahl
But the Browns. And depending on in what fashion, I.
Heath Cummings
I don't have to as the highest ranked left handed quarterback in this game.
Dave Richard
Oh, thank you for saying that. This is the first matchup between two left handed quarterbacks in 19 years and we're going to get another one next week to A versus Pedex. So maybe. Yeah, we're scheduled to have one. All right. Yeah. If there's any questions in the chat about this game, fire away. Okay, here we go. Here's one. Judkins, Dowdle, Javante and Henderson start two.
Jamie Erdahl
Well, one should not be in the conversation. It would be Judkins and Javante for me very easily.
Heath Cummings
Yes, yes.
Jamie Erdahl
We're gonna even if there's no Chuba Hubbard. That would be the answer.
Heath Cummings
So if there was no Chuba Hubbard, it would be Dowdle and Judkins.
Jamie Erdahl
You'd start doubt all over Devonte.
Heath Cummings
I think I have doubt all over Javante right now.
Jamie Erdahl
Interesting. Because you love Jonathan.
Heath Cummings
I do.
Dave Richard
I mean I'd start out, I'd start doubt all over. Well, whatever. I'm pretty sure Chupa's gonna play.
Heath Cummings
So they're all three in my top seven. So it's like without Chuba. So with Chuba, Dowdle's gonna fold.
Jamie Erdahl
But yeah, I like that as well. But I, I, I think Javante.
Dave Richard
Fanon or Craft is a question. Heath has fan and Jamie has craft. One spot ahead of Fanon. How about this one? Fanon or Kittle?
Jamie Erdahl
Kittle.
Heath Cummings
Kittle.
Dave Richard
Okay, this is a good one. HN or Rashad White.
Jamie Erdahl
Still hn?
Heath Cummings
Yep.
Dave Richard
All right, next game, what do we got? Oh, oh. Dst. You like the Browns?
Jamie Erdahl
Dst Very much so, yes.
Dave Richard
Okay, Las Vegas is at Kansas City. All right, so here's a kind of rest of season Aston Genti note stat of the game. Genti has only three games with more than two targets and two of them have been without Brock Bowers. He has had by Far his two highest target shares of the season with Brock Bowers being out. But Geno Smith's tight end target rate was. Was low in one of those games and high in the other. Like he's through to Michael Mayer last week and he still threw to Genti. But my point is, you know, are we. He hasn't. He's only had one great game and it was against the Bears. One of the best matchups. We were worried about him earlier because he wasn't catching any passes. I'm just wondering if we're looking at maybe a time to sell Ashton Genti. The schedule is not really great. They've got to buy next week, you know what I'm saying? Bowers comes back to the catches go away thoughts rest of season.
Heath Cummings
Ethan I still think he's a borderline RB1 rest of season and I think like the way you framed it, he's only had one great game is true. But after that great game, he scored what, 15, 15.9 points against the Colts and then the next week he scored 16.6 against the Titans. Like it's three straight games. At least 15.9 PPR fantasy points. I feel pretty good about that guy.
Jamie Erdahl
I think if you're selling Genti, it's gotta be for superstar. And so like if you're looking at a team that needs running backs and you have them and you need wide receivers and they have them, like could you turn Genti into Puka right now with the two week absence of Puka?
Dave Richard
Yeah, I mean I, well, no, Genti has a buy next week, so.
Jamie Erdahl
Well, they both do. But that's what I'm saying, like, you know, that's the type of thing you, you explore I guess if you're in those, in those rare situations. But I mean again, if, if you're giving up on what Genti has been and still could be, like he's got to get something amazing in return.
Dave Richard
Yeah, he hasn't really been that good. That's what I'm saying. I mean his first three games were.
Jamie Erdahl
Terrible, but that's also a rookie running back getting, you know, ramped up.
Dave Richard
It's also a bad situation. It's a crappy team with a bad offensive line and you know, one of the games where he's had, he said he had 15.9 points. He had five catches in that game. My point is, is that going to still be on the table when Bowers comes back? I think it.
Jamie Erdahl
How many cash does he have last week?
Dave Richard
Two.
Jamie Erdahl
Okay. So I think that's probably Better indication because mayor played.
Dave Richard
Yeah. 23 carries last week. They won, right? They played Tennessee. They won. You know, so. All right, look, it's fine.
Heath Cummings
They threw 23 passes last week, so.
Jamie Erdahl
Yeah, but you go back to the Chicago game and since then Gino's not been throwing the ball very much. Like they're scared of Gino.
Dave Richard
Yeah, me too.
Heath Cummings
I don't think they're going to have the option to just run the ball this week.
Dave Richard
Who we starting in this game, Las Vegas or Kansas City?
Jamie Erdahl
Mahomes? Rice. I would still start Worthy. Kelsey's a low end starter. Still Chiefs DST and Genti Adam.
Heath Cummings
When you said the I, I agree with all that. I think Michael Mayer is probably the hardest player to rank and then I would start Tucker over Myers. Tucker is a wide receiver. 3. When you said the Rashi Rice ESPN report.
Dave Richard
Yeah.
Heath Cummings
I, I thought, I read they were going to give him a heavy workload as soon as possible.
Dave Richard
I'll go for I can find this.
Heath Cummings
Week or as soon. I, I'm a little lower on Rice. He's a, he's still a number two wide receiver for me. I'm still starting him in most places. But I do think it's worth remembering it wasn't just the suspension. Like, he did have fairly significant knee injury and hasn't played football for more than a year. We've seen a lot of guys come back from injuries a little bit slow. He hasn't practiced until this week for a month and a half.
Dave Richard
Okay, well, this is the. From either Graziano or No Jeremy Fowler. Fowler. The Chiefs won't be easing Rasheed Rice back into action. They will be allocating a heavy workload for him as soon as possible.
Jamie Erdahl
Well, did you hear Andy Reid's answer?
Dave Richard
And then hold on. A team source says Rice will be, quote, full bore this week.
Heath Cummings
Okay, there we go. I didn't see that one.
Dave Richard
Yeah.
Jamie Erdahl
Did you hear Andy Reid's answer about that?
Dave Richard
I thought he kind of was non committal on it.
Jamie Erdahl
He said just go ask Jeremy Fowler.
Dave Richard
That's so funny. All right.
Jamie Erdahl
Yeah.
Dave Richard
So Rasheed Rice, I mean, is tough to rank. I think people are going to have questions. So where do you, where do you have him? Jamie Heath says got him as a number two.
Jamie Erdahl
I have him, I think 13, 12 or 13. Like I'm not, I'm like, we've been waiting for this for six weeks. Like I'm, I'm starting him wherever I have them.
Dave Richard
This is an easy guy to start over. Tedrell McMillan, right?
Jamie Erdahl
Yes.
Heath Cummings
I think I've got maybe one spot higher.
Dave Richard
Oh, okay. I think this game has some tough questions here. I mean, Trey Tucker or Jerry Judy Tucker for me.
Jamie Erdahl
I. I think you could safely say Tucker. Wouldn't surprise me if Judy's better. But like, you know, we are still talking about a guy that's got one great game and a few duds. He's been better than Judy, so that's easy to qualify that way.
Dave Richard
Why isn't Michael Mera must start?
Jamie Erdahl
Chiefs have been good against tight ends and we're talking about a guy that just had five targets.
Dave Richard
He had seven. I have him. Seven targets. They threw 22 passes.
Jamie Erdahl
Right.
Dave Richard
So you figure they're gonna have to throw more.
Jamie Erdahl
Right.
Dave Richard
Well, Heath, you have basically a must start. You have Maith Michael mayer.
Heath Cummings
Yeah. That 8 through 12 range is fluid.
Dave Richard
I'm sorry, 10th.
Heath Cummings
Now, like I said, it just changed.
Dave Richard
That was 8th yesterday. It's 10th. Jamie has mayor 16th. He's a good option, but so is Kate Otten, so is Evan Ingram. So is Zach Ertz. Right. I mean, it's kind of a deep tight end week.
Heath Cummings
Oh, you did it.
Dave Richard
Yeah, I know. Mahomes is, I think QB one for you guys. One or two. Something like that, yeah. So how about like, is Worthy clearly better than Trey Tucker this week in your mind?
Jamie Erdahl
I would prefer to start the guy associated with Patrick Mahomes than the guy associated with Geno Smith.
Heath Cummings
I agree with that, but I also think they're kind of the same guy.
Dave Richard
I have a few questions here from the chat. Xavier Worthy or T. Higgins? How about Xavier Worthy or Jalen Warren?
Jamie Erdahl
I'd go Warren.
Heath Cummings
I have those guys very close. I think it's probably safer. It's definitely safer to go Warren Worthy.
Dave Richard
Or sorry, Mayor or. Or Mason Taylor.
Jamie Erdahl
Mason Taylor.
Heath Cummings
For me, I've got Mayor High.
Jamie Erdahl
Like if you want to talk a guy that's going to get it, every target in the game, it might be.
Dave Richard
Yeah, worthy or Tedro McMillan.
Jamie Erdahl
I'd go worthy.
Heath Cummings
I'd go McMillan.
Jamie Erdahl
I had my kids had baseball practice last night and I had a hitting coach come to work with them team and the first thing he said to me goes, Mason Taylor. 39 and a half yards. That's an easy over.
Dave Richard
I hope so. If you were going to take a shot on an. If you had to deeper league, injuries, whatever, on another wide receiver in this game. Myers, Marquis Brown, Juju, Taekwond Thornton. Who's the best?
Heath Cummings
Myers.
Jamie Erdahl
Myers.
Dave Richard
And then to pick your next Chiefs receiver because they haven't been that bad.
Jamie Erdahl
I'm I'm. I said this the other day, like I'm very curious to see. One of them is probably going to be an active, you know, so Thornton, juju, Marquis Brown. It'd be surprising if it's Marquis Brown. So is Thornton or juju inactive now? I could be wrong, but you know, I. My guess is that does juju play special teams? I'm gonna guess no.
Dave Richard
I don't think so.
Heath Cummings
It might, yeah. Marquis Brown's the answer. If I had to start one of the other Chiefs wide receivers.
Dave Richard
Here's a good question. Worthy or Quentin Johnston?
Jamie Erdahl
Johnston. If he plays.
Heath Cummings
Yeah.
Jamie Erdahl
Okay.
Dave Richard
All right. And the Chiefs DST as of yesterday, only 78 rostered. They're top six for everyone. You should start them. Giants are at the Broncos.
Jamie Erdahl
Here's the run. I'm sorry.
Dave Richard
Oh, no. All right. Here, Heath, we can do this. Giants are at the Broncos. Broncos are seven point favorites. Here is a kind of concerning note on, on. On Dobbins in his first game without offensive guard Ben Powers who's out a while. He's on ir. I think it was kind of a two month ish timetable. Could be a long term injury for powers. J.K. dobbins had his highest percentage of carries for zero or negative yards. He had his first game with zero explosive runs. He had had two explosive runs in every game. Had zero. He had his worst game. The replacement for Ben Powers, Matt Pert, committed three penalties. So for this week, here come the Giants. They have terrible run defense. But your thoughts on J.K. dobbins? Maybe it was just a fluke, you know, this one bad game. But this guy who catches one pass a game.
Heath Cummings
I. Yeah, I do not like the profile very much because he catches one pass a game and in half of his games he's got 14 or fewer carries. So you really need that rushing touchdown. He should be someone that you rank quite a bit differently in full PPR than you do in non is more of a must start full PPR. He's more of a low end RB2.
Dave Richard
Would you start Wondale Robinson or Jerry Judy?
Heath Cummings
Oh, one deal.
Dave Richard
Wanda Robinson or Jacoby Myers? Wandale Wandale Robinson or Trey Tucker?
Heath Cummings
I have Tucker one spot higher.
Dave Richard
Okay. Dobbins or Scatter Boo?
Heath Cummings
As of right now, I have Scatter Boo one spot higher only in full ppr. Everything else it would be Dobbins, right?
Dave Richard
Yeah, because Dobbins again not giving you the catches, but this should be a good setup. Home favorite against the Giants run defense. This should be a good setup for J.K. dobbins. But you'd start Judkins over him, right? Obviously.
Heath Cummings
Oh, by a mile.
Dave Richard
Would you start. Sorry.
Heath Cummings
Let me.
Dave Richard
Let me take a look. Just give a good name. Bill. You like Bill?
Heath Cummings
Bill over Dobbins.
Dave Richard
How about Jordan Mason against the Eagles Or Dobbins?
Heath Cummings
He is right in that same range with Scatterboo and Dobbins. I would start Mason.
Jamie Erdahl
All right.
Dave Richard
But These are good RB2s this week. Scatter Boo. I mean, scored 31 points last week. Denver, not an amazing run defense, but they give up the fourth fewest fantasy points to running backs. I don't know. Scatter was insane. Well, that.
Heath Cummings
That part is undeniable. I. I get so uncomfortable watching he and Jackson dart run because it just looks like they're trying. It looks like they're trying to get hurt.
Dave Richard
Yeah.
Jamie Erdahl
Yeah.
Dave Richard
I feel that especially Scatterable. Some questions from the chat. Cortland Sutton, who I assume is an easy start this week, or Ashton Genti?
Heath Cummings
So, yeah, I've got Sutton at wide receiver 15, I think 14.7 points. I've got Genti at 15.5. So I'd go Genti.
Dave Richard
Any news on Slayton yet? He did not practice on Wednesday. Would his. If he plays, would that change anything for. For you with Wondale?
Heath Cummings
With anyone that would downgrade Wandale for me from a high or high end wide receiver 3 to a low end wide receiver 3. He'd probably still be ahead of Jerry.
Dave Richard
Judy, Quentin Johnston or Wanda Robinson.
Heath Cummings
Quentin Johnston, assuming he plays.
Dave Richard
Any interest in little Jordan Humphrey who had eight targets last week?
Heath Cummings
It is a revenge game.
Dave Richard
It is.
Heath Cummings
So no.
Dave Richard
Okay. Anyone else? Ingram.
Heath Cummings
And I also. I don't think there's any T in little Jordan. You called him little Jordan.
Dave Richard
Oh, yeah, sorry. Little Jordan. And he's huge. He's six, four.
Heath Cummings
Yeah.
Dave Richard
Theo Johnson's a sit.
Heath Cummings
Yeah.
Dave Richard
Oh, yeah. How do you feel about Evan Ingram this weekend? We gotta talk about Bo Nicks. I got a lot to say about Bo Nicks. How do you feel about Ingram?
Heath Cummings
I am not really interested in Evan Ingram. I like you do have these games where he gets seven targets. Seven targets is forever. Ingram's like seven carries for most running backs. Yeah, he's probably gonna get you around 30 or 40 yards. I actually had one game with seven targets. He's got two with six.
Dave Richard
But he has three straight games with six or seven targets.
Heath Cummings
And he has 42, 33 and 29 yards in those games.
Jamie Erdahl
Right.
Dave Richard
But he has four, four and five catches. So in full PPR, you're probably getting a seven point floor, I mean we never know what a guy's actual floor is. But I think it's fair to say that with Ingram no one's too high on him. I mean the highest Dave and Jamie have Ingram around 16th. So no one's that high on him. But he's got the revenge factor. I think he had, he played the Giants once I think with the Jaguars had about 10 fantasy points interest in Troy Franklin or Marvin Mims in this game.
Heath Cummings
I still prefer Franklin but no, it's gotten too jumbled up the last couple of weeks. We had a two or three week stretch where it looked like Franklin was the guy. He's wide receiver 40ish for me. I would start Jerry Judy over Troy Franklin starter.
Dave Richard
Sit Bonix.
Heath Cummings
I don't want to start Bonix. I think you might have to. I've got him one spot ahead of Justin Fields. I would start him over Daniel Jones but he's not a top 12 quarterback.
Dave Richard
Okay, I broke down Bonix a little bit yesterday and I separated him into three time frames. One is 2024 full season, one is 2025 full season or the first six games. The other is the last nine games of 2024 when he went off. And I didn't even include week 18 when he scored a billion points against the Chiefs backups.
Heath Cummings
Some A's are stating.
Dave Richard
So you look at the 17 game paces, you look at the stats right now, Bonix is not playing anything like he played in those last nine games. That was an, you know, that was an unrealistic to repeat kind of stretch. But if you look at full season 2025 versus full season 2024 or you know, first six games versus full season, it's not that different. He's just a little bit off like completion percentage a little bit lower yards per attempt, a little bit lower yards per carry, a little bit lower touchdown rate, a little bit lower. It seems like he's about one good game away from being back to what he did last year when he was a top 10 quarterback. I think he's close. I didn't draft him at all because I said, you know, he's basically the beginning of a huge tier and I don't want him and I, you know, we've been rewarded for that. But I, I don't, I'm not that down on Bo Nicks Heath. I think he's fine.
Heath Cummings
I, fine is a fine way to.
Dave Richard
Describe him with big upside because the Giants give up a lot of big plays and, and he has missed on those big plays. But like Just barely. You know, I, I mean I like it more than Fields this week. I know. I think Jamie's got him like back to back.
Heath Cummings
But yeah, I've got. I've got him ahead of Fields.
Dave Richard
Let's see who else, Bo Nix or Daniel Jones?
Heath Cummings
I you know, I really feel like I said I would start him over Fields. I would start him over Jones.
Dave Richard
Sorry. Bo Nicks or Jordan Love. I'll go love Bo Nicks or.
Jamie Erdahl
I've.
Heath Cummings
Got Rogers tonight over Nicks.
Dave Richard
I go Nicks.
Heath Cummings
I wouldn't argue that one strongly.
Dave Richard
Yeah.
Heath Cummings
Haven't been a lot of good fantasy quarterback performances against the Giants.
Dave Richard
No, but the Giants. Oh, here you go. Stat of the game. Giants give up 19 points per game at home, 29 points per game on the road. I don't know. Maybe. Maybe Fluky. The Giants can get after the quarterback so this team has should have a good offensive line. Although last week the replacement for Ben Powers, Matt Pert was terrible and he committed three penalties. But the Broncos should handle the Giants. We think Denver's DST is top three Giants DST Heath does not like them but the Jamie and Dave have them kind of low end like probably just not a great week for dsts but I wouldn't want to start them. The Patriots are at the Titans. I think this game's a pretty simple one to break down. So do it.
Heath Cummings
Start Drake maybe.
Jamie Erdahl
Yeah.
Heath Cummings
No, like looking at the running backs I would start Ramondre is my favorite running back in this game. I think it's pretty close to a toss up between Henderson and Pollard and Taije's kind of a dart throw. Looking at the wide receivers, Diggs is the only one that you're considering starting if you have to start a Titans wide receiver. I'm sorry K Sean Booty is a top 48 guy, but just barely.
Dave Richard
Hunter Henry.
Heath Cummings
Hunter Henry is a borderline top 12 tight end. I think I've got him 13th. How about.
Dave Richard
Chico Conquo has scored 8.8 he scored 8.8 or more PPR fantasy points in three of his last four games.
Heath Cummings
I actually have him one spot ahead of Henry is one of the 17 tight end streamers available.
Dave Richard
He doesn't have the route participation rate that you'd like to see. They use gunner helm as well is so we talked about like desperation, you know, Marquis Browns of the world and all that. Do you see a guy in this game Whether it's Booty or Van Jefferson or Ellic IO Manor, assuming Calvin Ridley's out, is there a guy in this game that could get me double digit fantasy points.
Heath Cummings
So in the projections, I have Van Jefferson the highest of that group, because when Ridley went down, he just kind of came in and took the Ridley targets and played the Ridley role. I would think if they have a full week where they know or thinking that Ridley's not going to play, they would drop some more plays for Ellic. And so I. I have him one spot ahead of Van Jefferson. Both of them ahead of Booty.
Dave Richard
I have some questions about this game from the chat, but before we do that, how much do you like Drake May? Who would you start him over? You're actually the low guy on Drake May.
Heath Cummings
Well, of course I am, but I would start him over. Jared Goff. I would start him over. Baker Mayfield. I would start him over any of these guys we've been talking about. Stafford Rogers, Knicks Fields, those guys. I'd start him over.
Dave Richard
Jalen Hurts over Goff and Mayfield. Huh. Wow. Because look, he's actually. May's had a lot of success with. With this type of performance that I'm about to say. But he could throw 25 passes in this game.
Heath Cummings
Yeah. And I. I have him. I'm the low guy on him, and I have him sixth. So I don't think that I'm unique in having him over those guys.
Dave Richard
I'm sorry, I thought. I thought you had him eighth. You do have him sixth. Okay. Dave and Jamie also have him over golf and Baker Mayfield.
Jamie Erdahl
Wow.
Dave Richard
All right. I think I'm gonna take golf and Mayfield over May, but obviously they're all.
Heath Cummings
Mike is dismayed that you're dissing Drake May.
Dave Richard
Well, we're definitely taking over Justin Fields, that's for sure. All right, chat questions for this game. Elik IO Manor or Luther Burden?
Heath Cummings
I would go IO Manor if more is out. If.
Dave Richard
If DJ Moore were out, would you take Bird?
Heath Cummings
We don't have DJ More ranked right now.
Dave Richard
And you're still going Alec. Okay. And you're going Alec.
Heath Cummings
We don't have Ridley ranked either Elik.
Dave Richard
Aisle Manor or a Broncos number two receiver.
Heath Cummings
I'll take I.O. manor for now.
Dave Richard
Keenan Allen Golden Bourne. This is not for this game, but we'll answer it anyway. We have to sit one Keenan Allen, Matthew golden, or Kendrick Bourne.
Heath Cummings
Golden's the toughest guy for me to rank this week. I actually think he's going to have a good game. I would still sit golden and Henry Hunter.
Dave Richard
Henry or Taysom Hill.
Heath Cummings
Thanks, Ben. Yeah, you know, I feel like Ben should get more questions answered after you were so rude to him before the Saints beat the Giants, but I would.
Dave Richard
Go with Hunter Henry and just, just to wrap it up. I mean, a lot of you have Tony Pollard and you know, have been starting him. Just, just don't do it. First of all, it's a terrible matchup. Secondly, he's just in a back. He's in a committee now. He had 10 carries last week. If they're winning, he'll have more. But they're seven point dogs. And finally Carolina is at the Jets. Okay, stat of the game. Carolina. In their last two games, they have held Devon HN and Javante Williams to a combined 23 carries for 45 yards. I read an article about this from their website. Dave Canales, their head coach, said the team is setting the edge. Well, it was a big long story about how much better their run defense has gotten. What do you think is Breeze hall without Garrett Wilson? Was Breeze hall an easy start for you this week or are you worried?
Heath Cummings
What do you think the hope is that without Garrett Wilson, Breeze hall is going to see more targets? I'm. He's. He's been fantastic, Hull. Not necessarily in fantasy production, but just the way he's running the football. He's a, he's a top 12 running back for me. I'm starting him.
Dave Richard
So if Hubbard's out, you're starting doubt all over Breeze. And if Hubbard's in, you're starting Breeze over both of them.
Heath Cummings
Right.
Dave Richard
And if Hubbard is out, then Rico Dowdle is an absolute stud. Start him again. But Hubbard says he's going to play. So what are you thinking about this backfield?
Heath Cummings
Ah, I'm kind of thinking that we're going to get the old. You get a series, you get a series, you get a series, you get a series. And then whoever's. If one of the guys like if Rio Oddle is doing and Chuba Hubbard's averaging 3.8 yards per carry, then Rico probably takes over a 65, 35 lead in the backfield. But I don't think they're gonna go in. And the other thing is Chuba said he didn't know how much he was going to play, so maybe this is his first game back and he's just the backup running back.
Dave Richard
Yeah, it's. It's really annoying. I kind of thought we were going to get one more. One more Dowdle game. So Rico Dowdle. If Chuba plays rico Dowdle or J.K.
Heath Cummings
Dobbins, I will probably have him behind Dobbins again. We don't have Chuba ranked. It was a limited practice yesterday. Right.
Jamie Erdahl
Yeah.
Heath Cummings
So a limited practice on a Wednesday for a guy that's been out a couple weeks. We don't have Quentin Johnston ranked yet either. We'll make those decisions before the Thursday night game. But if. If Chuba is active, I'm gonna have.
Dave Richard
Dobbins higher, and you have Dobbins 22nd, so.
Heath Cummings
Right. I would guess I'm going to have Dowdle at 24. If Chuba's active.
Dave Richard
Okay.
Heath Cummings
Right next to Jalen Warren, between Montgomery and Ken Walker.
Dave Richard
McMillan. All right. I'm not going to get into McMillan because we're at an hour and 16 minutes, and we talked about him for about five minutes earlier today. Heath has him as a number two. Jamie has him as a number three. Jamie might move him up a little bit, but not into his top 24. We know the deal here with Ted Roll McMillan, and what's going to happen. He's going to get Sauce Gardner, but not necessarily on every snap. Justin Fields, he threw up in 15th. Dave has him 22nd. And look, I know he's had good games with bad receiving core. You know, he's. He's never had, like, a great receiving core, but even, you know, in the Darnell Mooney days, he's had some good games. But this is. This is awful. I mean, this.
Heath Cummings
It's. It's the. Quite possibly, especially if Josh Reynolds is out, I think it may be the worst wide receiver group on a field in a game.
Dave Richard
If Josh Reynolds plays, what's your interest level in him?
Heath Cummings
He is down in that aisle, man. Or Van Jefferson conversation. Probably like someone you might consider in leagues where you've got multiple flexes or you're really just destroyed at wide receivers, sneaks into the top 48.
Dave Richard
If Reynolds plays, would you rather start him or Jalen Coker?
Heath Cummings
We don't have Coker in the rankings yet either, but probably I'd go with Reynolds.
Dave Richard
All right. I kind of like that. I like the opportunity for Coker. I just. We don't know how much he's going to play. And then Mason Taylor, what are we thinking about him?
Heath Cummings
The definition of a borderline tight end. One last week was obviously very disappointing, but if there's no Josh Reynolds, then he probably moves up just a little bit. He's still like, which of these guys do you want to rank Mason Taylor higher than he's got? He's at 12 for me, and I kind of want to rank him higher, but you want to rank him higher than Tucker Kraft? Do you want to rank him higher than Michael Mayer? Do you Want to rank him higher than Harold Fannin. You want to rank him higher than Dallas Goddard, Kate Otten, Travis Kelsey?
Dave Richard
Like, I would go, he could be.
Heath Cummings
Better than those guys. But I. I don't have them ahead of them.
Dave Richard
If Evans plays, which we're expecting, I would start Mason Taylor over Otten. I would start Mason Taylor. Not over Fannin. I don't think I'd start him over Goddard. Not over Kelsey. But there was one other name. You said craft. Not over Craft. Oh, Mayor. I would start over mayor. Yeah, but it's a. It was really a dart throw. All these guys have such good opportunities.
Heath Cummings
This week, and Kraft has been like, I know you guys talk about him tomorrow, but what a disappointing role he's had after a spectacular start to the season since. Since his week two blow up. Five and two targets.
Dave Richard
You call them a sell high after that week two blow up.
Heath Cummings
There we go.
Dave Richard
It's a good call. You like a DST in this game.
Heath Cummings
Oh, who are we even talking about?
Dave Richard
Carolina and the Jets.
Heath Cummings
I, you know, I'm. I'm starting to think that maybe I should have Carolina's defense ranked higher. Yeah, I don't like the Jets.
Jamie Erdahl
I'm.
Heath Cummings
I'm gonna move the Panthers up and they are going to be 14th.
Dave Richard
Okay. And Bryce Young is about 18th for everyone.
Jamie Erdahl
Yep.
Dave Richard
And that is it. Oh, yes. Mailer Taylor over Taysom Hill. Boy, Ben loves Taysom Hill. That's.
Heath Cummings
Well, I mean, in fairness, Taysom Hill scores touchdowns.
Dave Richard
He does. Theo Johnson or Mason Taylor from the chat?
Heath Cummings
Taylor. Yeah. Let's see.
Jamie Erdahl
Okay.
Dave Richard
Carolina's D or Jacksonville's D against the Rams.
Heath Cummings
I would go with Carolinas.
Dave Richard
And Bryce Younger. Sam Darnold.
Heath Cummings
I'm going with Bryce Young. I don't think this. This matchup's very good for Sam Darnold.
Dave Richard
I'm going Darnold. He's just so good. And Fields or Wentz? Last question. Feels out of here, folks. Thanks so much for watching and listening. We'll talk to you tomorrow with the NFC home games on fantasy football.
Jamie Erdahl
Today.
Heath Cummings
Paramount podcasts an exclusive Paramount plus original documentary. This war was a total disaster. It's completely at odds with what the public have been told.
Dave Richard
We have liberated village after village.
Heath Cummings
We broke the Taliban's momentum. We are winning Rest responsibly and safely. But our government's biggest deception.
Dave Richard
They didn't care about what the reality.
Heath Cummings
Of this war was.
Jamie Erdahl
They cared about their narrative was going to be upset by somebody speaking to the press.
Heath Cummings
Bodyguard of Lies now streaming on Paramount plus.
Date: October 16, 2025
Hosts: Adam Aizer, Dave Richard, Jamie Erdahl, Heath Cummings
Focus: In-depth “Start or Sit” analysis for AFC home games in Week 7, with a spotlight on Rashee Rice, Kimani Vidal, Tetairoa “Tedro” McMillan, rookies, injury news, and lineups.
This episode dives into crucial "Start or Sit" debates for a pivotal Week 7, featuring hot-start rookies, tricky injury situations, and shifting NFL depth charts. The team debates upside, risk, and opportunity for fantasy managers, breaks down confusing backfields, discusses injury ripple effects, and fields tough listener questions. The analysis is direct, numbers-driven, and perfect for fantasy managers seeking an advantage in a wide-open season.
Jalen Warren (PIT) vs. CIN:
Jared Goff & Jameson Williams (DET) vs. TB:
Kimani Vidal (ATL) vs. IND:
Chris Olave (NO) at CHI:
Chase Brown (CIN) & Tony Pollard (NE):
Darren Waller (NYG) vs. CLE:
Matthew Stafford (LAR) at JAX:
Tedro McMillan (ARI) at NYJ:
Rapid Fire QB Updates:
Key WR Injuries:
TEs:
Offensive Line/Defense:
On league competitiveness:
“75% of the league is between 2-4 and 4-2. It’s kind of like the season starts now.”
Heath Cummings (02:17)
On Jalen Warren’s matchup:
“Cincinnati has allowed 10 total touchdowns to the position.”
Jamie Erdahl (03:01)
On McMillan’s peripherals:
“First downs per route run are predictive … McMillan’s top 10 in those categories.”
Heath Cummings (12:35)
On Rashee Rice’s comeback:
“Rice will be, quote, full bore this week.”
Jamie Erdahl quoting ESPN (62:44)
On Wandale Robinson vs. Jerry Judy:
“Oh, Wandale.”
Heath Cummings (67:59)
On Jerry Judy’s lifeline as a starter:
“He’s got a shot—if not now, never.”
Heath Cummings (16:16, 26:16)
On TE streamers in a deep week:
“Fannin, Kraft, Mayer—all in the streaming tight end cauldron.”
Panel, various (55:33, 83:24)
Rashee Rice (KC):
Start as a WR2. Full-go, big opportunity. Chiefs won’t limit snap count off suspension.
Kimani Vidal (ATL):
High-end RB2, dominant workload expected, should see 20+ touches.
Tedro McMillan (ARI):
Risky WR2/3—talented, but tough sauce Gardner matchup. Great underlying metrics, but low raw output.
Jalen Warren (PIT):
Start. Bengals weak vs. RBs. Good pass game floor.
Jared Goff (DET):
Start. Home splits, Tampa secondary allowing yardage.
Harold Fannin (CLE):
Sneaky top-8 TE play. Miami bad vs. TEs.
Chuba Hubbard/Rico Dowdle (CAR):
Whoever is active is a FLEX, great spot. Monitor Hubbard’s practice status.
Fan favorite: “Judkins, Dowdle, Javonte and Henderson – start two?”
“Judkins and Javonte easy. Even if Hubbard’s out—Dowdle only if dire.”
(57:30-57:38)
Mason Taylor vs. Tucker Kraft at TE:
“Slight lean Kraft, but both are fine. Taylor over Mayor.”
(83:29-83:51)
Breece Hall vs. Dowdle:
“If Hubbard is in, Hall over both. If Hubbard’s out, Dowdle’s a smash.”
(79:55-80:02)
Tone:
Direct, stat-driven, occasionally laced with playful jabs and competitive anecdote, always focused on actionable fantasy advice.
For more:
Watch/stream FFT on YouTube every Sunday at 8:30am and catch their waiver, mailbag, and trade episodes for more live interaction.
This summary offers a detailed breakdown tailored for busy fantasy managers and is ideal for those needing every edge as the playoff push approaches.