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Fantasy Football Today
State of the Quarterback Position + Best Vets For Contenders, Favorite Buys & Sells (Fantasy Football Dynasty Podcast)
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- [00:00]
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Heath Cummings
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- [01:31]
Heath Cummings
Foreignasy football today, Dynasty. I am your host Heath Cummings and today we have for you our final state of the position. The quarterback position. And who better to break down the quarterback position than my good friend Jay. Jay, tell everybody where they can find your work and why. It makes sense that you're here on the QB show.
- [02:04]
Jay
So I think you froze there for just a second but I appreciate you having me Heath. And yeah, I am now the I'm over at QE lease. I'm getting an echo somewhere. I'm not sure if that's me.
- [02:15]
Heath Cummings
Sorry about that. So Joel at Jay, figure out what's going on here. On today's show we are going to have kind of the same thing we've done for most of the positions. I will give you my top 12. We have buys, we have cells, we have sleepers. We've got several questions that I want to ask Jay about evaluating the quarterback position, how he feels about this rookie class. We will have maybe some potential waiver wire ads. Those are hard to find in a Super Flex league for sure. We'll try to get some of your chat questions as well. So if you have questions in the chat and I'll go over to Twitter and make sure I retweet for anybody. I always say this. I know some of you guys watch it. I should say X, shouldn't I? I know some of you guys watch it on X, some of you watch it on YouTube. If you want to ask questions, you need to come over here to YouTube because I can't see your questions over on Twitter or X. We're just waiting for Jay to get his system all figured out so that make sure that he can hear me. And let's just. Harry, I'm gonna call an audible here at the top of the show. So first off, while, while Harry, if he has my top 12 list, if you don't, that's fine. I'll just read it off. But I wanted to start off with my top 12 quarterbacks at the position and I, you know, I'm not afraid of a little controversy. Right at the very top. Jaden Daniels, QB1. He's my QB1 for redraft. He's younger than anybody else on this list. How could he not be my QB one for Dynasty? Then I have Lamar Jackson, I have Josh Allen, Joe Burrows, QB4, Jalen Hurts, QB5, Patrick Mahomes, QB6. I want to stay on these top six for a second because in terms of my value, I've seen a lot of people frame this as kind of one big tier and in certain ways it is. There's a bigger difference between Mahomes at 6 and my QB 7 than there is between Mahomes at 6 and Jaden Daniels.
- [04:20]
Jay
So.
- [04:20]
Heath Cummings
So in that respect, I think saying that it's just one tier makes a little bit of sense. On the other hand, I've got a pretty big difference between one through three, Daniels, Lamar and Allen, and four through six, Burrow, Hertz and Mahomes. That could change. If Joe Burrow does what he did last year for a second year, then I don't think there's any doubt that people are going to move him in to that, that top tier at the quarterback position. If Jalen Hurts just keeps up what he's been doing, he might move there as well. And Patrick Mahomes, I, I think we're all just kind of waiting for that next great Patrick Mahomes season. You can't put him in the top tier until that happens. But also, nobody wants to rule it out. Let's go Ahead and move to QB 7 through 12 again, a big gap after the top six. And then Caleb Williams, Brock Purdy, Jordan Love, Kyler Murray, Justin Herbert, Bo Nix and what I will say is first off, I'm sorry to my Drake may fans, he's QB13. The difference between him and Nick's flip a coin. So I don't really hear that much. Hey, Jay's back. You know, you've already got the chat active. I was just rolling through my top 12. We'll come back to the top 12 in a second. 4J let's go ahead and jump into our three questions for our guest about the quarterback position. And I, I will say like we've, we've heard a lot all summer long about how this is maybe a historically great running back class. People are very excited about the tight ends Colson Loveland and Tyler Warren and even some of the younger guys. I don't hear a lot of positive things, Jay, about this rookie quarterback class and I think we all know why. But can you give me some positivity about the 2025 rookie quarterback class? Are they going to help us out in fantasy at all?
- [06:18]
Jay
Yeah, actually there's a couple of guys. Cam Ward isn't getting enough love. You know, I don't think he's a generational prospect. Like, you know, we hear every single season, you know, as he was getting drafted on espn, they were showing Shador Sanders or something about him and where was he gonna go? So I think he's getting enough love and a lot of it has to do with Calvin Ridley. Calvin Ridley was a lot better than people gave him credit for last season. He had the highest average depth of target among all wide receivers. He was just one of four that averaged over 100 air yards a game. But 50% or less of the, excuse me, less than 50% of those were catchable thanks to Will Levis's 35.7% completion percentage on deep throws, 20 or 20 more yards down the field. And Cam Ward, while he was, you know, somewhat inconsistent with his accuracy downfield, he's tied for the most throws and of 20 or more yards in the Power Four conferences through 14 touchdowns, no interceptions and a 46 completion rate on those passes. So not anything, anything necessarily to write home about, but a significant upgrade over Will Levis. And if they're able to connect on a decent amount of those, I think Cam Ward can be a solid, you know, whether it's super flex, looking at QB2 or, or one QB, somebody who could be low end QB1 you know.
- [07:40]
Heath Cummings
I think people may hear you say that Calvin Ridley is underrated and, and kind of doubt that. I love it when the universes work together though, because I was on Twitter before the show and Matt Harmon's doing a thread about how Calvin Ridley was actually very good last year. So yes, I, I, I agree with you. I, I have questions about I'm not sure Ward is going to be elite as a thrower and I'm not sure he's going to run enough to make up for that. But I do think he's undervalued and when we, if we were doing my, my next 24, I think it would show that I've got him at QB16 in Dynasty. So I, I have some optimism there. We have a question already in the chat that we'll get to at the end of the show about Cam Ward versus Caleb Williams and Trevor Lawrence and so we'll have that discussion a little bit later. Again, if you have questions for us and you're watching here on YouTube, make sure that you make sure you get those in there. We will have time for your questions later. Question number two. What do you think is the most important thing about projecting young quarterbacks moving forward?
- [08:47]
Jay
Kind of a simple kind of basic answer, but honestly just showing some sort of improvement from year to year. I, I mean the list is miles long when it comes to rookie quarterbacks who had terrible seasons that eventually become multiple super, multiple time super bowl champions, hall of Famers. You know, your Steve Young, Peyton Manning, Troy Aikman, more recently Jared Goff, Alex Smith, even Josh Allen. You know, but people forget that. People were wondering if this was just another QB bust for Buffalo before he, he made that leap and made that jump with his completion percentage and became the stud that he is. So pretty basic here. Just somebody that's willing, you know, improvement because it shows their willingness to put in the work, their ability to take instruction, their dedication. All these guys are talented. It's just whether they're willing to put in the work to try to, to make those improvements.
- [09:36]
Heath Cummings
I think that's probably more true going into this year of Caleb Williams than anyone because we all loved the potential. We all thought he could be one of the greats. And last year he was flat out terrible. And so hopefully with a new offensive coordinator, hopefully he, he settles in and starts getting the ball out on time. That's a guy to watch. If you don't see improvement from Caleb Williams in the first half of this season, might be time to pull the plug. Question number three, who's really simple one who's your favorite breakout quarterback this year?
- [10:10]
Jay
Jordan Love. I'm back in on Jordan Love. You know, he was somebody that this time last year was being drafted Inside the top 10 in redraft leagues and everybody was all about the Jordan Love breakout and it's not like he played that bad last year. The injury really hampered him. He had a MCL injury week one, missed a couple games, came back and you could tell he wasn't the same, just not, not quite as mobile. His mobility was limited, wasn't able to move around in the, in the pocket and he doesn't add a whole lot on the ground but he, he'll, he'll chip in a couple yards here or there and had less than 100 yards rushing on on the season among quarterbacks with at least 300 attempts, Love still finished in the top 10 yards per attempt in touchdowns and average depth of target and nearly every single category for deep passes. He was 68 despite only playing in 15 games. He had 68 attempts downfield, 25 completions and four touchdowns and which was tied for the six months and he threw the ball downfield at a 16% rate which was the highest in the league. So you know, I know it unfortunately won't have Christian Watson this year or will sometime but we, we don't know when. But still boasts one of the the deepest wide receiver cores in the entire league. And finally, finally I'm sure Aaron Rodgers love to see that the packers, you know the story we've all heard a million times that they drafted a wide receiver in the first round. Matthew golden out of Texas. He's a study fits right into what this offense is trying to do and I think that Jordan Love is, is prime for that bounce. Excuse me, that breakout that many thought he was gonna have last season.
- [11:45]
Heath Cummings
It's one of those things I always talk about a couple of guys in James Cook and Mike Evans that I was really high going into last year on and now I find myself way below consensus on so I have to talk about them differently and Jordan loves the opposite and maybe I just bring up the ones I was right about. I probably don't mention the guys that I was wrong about last year. But Jordan Love I was very skeptical of the top 10 ranking and now I think perception's fallen way too low on him and he's actually a great value. We'll talk about that more when we get to my top 12. We had one question. I'll go ahead and get to Mike in the chat has Jay gushed about Trevor Lawrence yet? Just wait, Mike. It's coming. We'll be back right after this break.
- [12:23]
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- [12:54]
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- [12:57]
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Jay
Looking forward to it.
- [13:04]
Heath Cummings
Novocay Rated R. Now streaming on Paramount + we are back and I I already read through my top 12, give a few of my thoughts on them. So now we're gonna get Jay's thoughts on on the top 12. I'll read the list one more time and kind of mention where I have the tear break. So it's Jaden Daniels, Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen and a small tear break. And then it's Joe Burrow, Jalen Hurts, Patrick Mahomes and a huge tear break. And then I kind of view Caleb Williams at QB7 as the bridge. We have the hope that he can jump into that top six, but it's mostly just hope. And then my final five are Brock Purdy, Jordan Love, who Jay just mentioned, Kyler Murray, Justin Herbert, Bo Nix, and I just, I didn't put them on the list because they're not in the top 12. But Drake may, C.J. stroud not far behind that. If I was doing it by tears, they'd still be in the same tier as Herbert and Nicks and those guys at the bottom. So that's my top 12. Let's go. Let's start at the top because I know it's a it was more controversial a couple of months ago when I had jaden Daniels as QB1 and Dynasty. I'm seeing more people kind of coming around to that now. Do you have any strong opinions on Daniels vs Jackson vs Allen, or is it just these guys are all in one tier? It's great if you get the cheapest one.
- [14:24]
Jay
Yeah, that's literally what I wrote down in my notes is those guys are in the same tier. I want to go after whoever's going to cost me the least. You know, Jaden Daniels is the youngest and people get caught up in youth so much in Dynasty, but we've seen Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen do it for multiple seasons. We've. I think he will. Most of us do. But we haven't seen Jaden Daniels do it for multiple seasons. So there's that risk built in there. And I think that that kind of offsets the age thing with Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen. Yeah, I'm with you. I think that's, that's the tear break. And then you go into Joe Joe Burrow. Jalen hurts Patrick Mahomes. I know you're gonna love to hear this. I think people are way, way, way, way, way too down on him this season. They're. They're forgetting how young he is. And I'm not betting against the pissed off Patrick Mahomes. I'm sorry, that's just me. I mean, one of the few guys that's potentially, you know, can press Brady for the, the greatest of all time. I would actually go ahead and probably put Caleb Williams up in that next tier with those guys definitely at the bottom.
- [15:20]
Heath Cummings
And Jay believes in the hope a little more than I do.
- [15:23]
Jay
I do. And it's actually my first series over at QB List was flag plants and Caleb Williams was one of my quarterback flag plants and he actually wasn't as bad as you think last season. Even though he faced pressure on 29 of his drop backs, only 2% of his passes were considered turnover worthy. I know the numbers really weren't there, but he. Passing numbers weren't there, but he was still 7, 7. Both rushing yards, averaged 6 yards of carry. And what they've done with the offensive line, I mean, the offensive line was awful last season. We all know that. They really made some strides there. I love the weapons, adding Luther Burden and Colston Loveland to DJ Moore and Roma dunesday. So I'm this you nail on the head if he doesn't do it this season. I know it's, it's really early to say do or die, but I mean, last season everybody was saying, oh, you know, it's the best situation that a quarterback's ever had. Coming in over one overall, number one overall. But I think for a sophomore, this might be the best, best situation.
- [16:22]
Heath Cummings
It is a fantastic situation. I, I want to kind of look at the bottom of the list and I'm glad you kind of covered Caleb there because it's the next five guys where I get the most disagreement and controversy within my rankings from other people, specifically with having brock Purdy at 8 but Purdy love, Kyler Herbert and Nicks. Who is your favorite from that group and why?
- [16:49]
Jay
Favorite is Love is pretty much what we talked about earlier. I feel like out of that grouping he has the potential to jump into the top five. The clearest path and multiple seasons of it. I, I think, you know, with his youth, even though he's, he's somewhat older than, you know, the Bo Nixes of the world, just the offensive system and the weapons that he has. I, I'm not to be too cheesy, but I love Jordan Love, right?
- [17:16]
Heath Cummings
Yeah. No. So I, I think everybody who looks at those, those five wants to argue with me that one of them doesn't belong in the top 12. Which of those five amongst players Purdy Love, Murray, Herbert and Nicks, would you say don't belong in the top 12 or do you have all those guys in the top 12 too? And if, if so, which one's number 12?
- [17:36]
Jay
It would probably be between Brock Purdy and Bo Nix. And I know I've been getting a lot of flack. I'm down on, on Bo Nicks compared to most. I just. He was one of I think 11 quarterbacks that threw 25 over 25 touchdowns and his yards per. Yards per attempt were low. Sorry, I lost my notes there. There we go. No, there we go. Yeah. 8th in completion percentage and yards last. Out of those 11 he was 8th in completion percentage in yards, last per, in yards per attempt and tied for the most interceptions. You know, his rushing gave him a safe floor, but he really wasn't that efficient rushing at 4.7 yards per carry, which is actually lower than Geno Smith. So it was really more of a quantity versus quality. You know, what if these, you know, JK Dobbins and what's the other RJ Harvey. Amen. Like, you know, they want to run the ball. What if he, those 92 attempts drops to 65, 70. Then I feel like he's, he's being drafted as at his ceiling. You know, he has some room for improvement for passing, but I just don't see him jumping into that top five potential tier.
- [18:50]
Heath Cummings
So I, I think like obviously I have more confidence in Purdy than Nicks and I, it's a coin flip for me between Nicks and May. I still like Nick's situation better than Maze and that's because of some of my Stefan Diggs skepticism. If Diggs just turns back into his 29 year old self then that's going to look a little bit foolish. But I will say in defense of Purdy and you've referenced that number of yards per attempt, which is a good way to value measure quarterbacks. And, and everyone seems to think that unless you're in a Kyle Shanahan system and then it's Kyle Shanahan, it's not what the quarterback's doing and there's some truth to that. But Brock Purdy's gonna be with Kyle Shanahan for the next three to five years, so I don't think that's going away. Thought he got a little unlucky in terms of the touchdowns last year. And maybe my most important case or point for a bull case for Purdy is I, I think we may see the worst San Francisco defense that they've had since he joined the team. I expect him to smash his in pass attempts and if he maintains anywhere close to the same efficiency he's had in terms of yards per attempt, that's going to give him a chance to throw for 45, 4600 yards this year. And with the touchdowns positive regression that I expect, I think he's right back to being a top 10 quarterback again.
- [20:10]
Jay
Yeah, and actually on my flag plants, I went by position, by position. And I tend to avoid drafting the elite tight ends. But one guy who I would draft this season is George Kittle. Because of that, like you said, one of my main points was the defense in San Francisco is not going to be what we're used to. They lost so many guys. And I'm with you. I think that Brock Purdy, you know, next couple seasons especially, it's gonna have plenty of opportunity to throw.
- [20:34]
Heath Cummings
So Drake May, C.J. stroud are the two guys I said are very close to the top 12. If I, if we didn't just break things down that way, I probably would have just said my top 14. I did that at one other position earlier. But between Drake May and C.J. stroud, what's, what's your best case for including one of those guys?
- [20:51]
Jay
The top 12 quarterback I'm still, I still believe in C.J. stroud. He faced pressure at the highest rate of any other quarterback in the league last season. 3, 34 of the time sacked the second most with 52. When he was given a clean pocket, his completion percentage was 70%. Under pressure, it drops all the way to 47.6. So almost his yards per attempt dropped by a full yard. They revamped the the offensive line. Now, granted, it's not going to be one of the best in the league, but it certainly has nowhere to go but up. You know they signed veterans Lake and Tomlinson, Cam Robinson, Trent Brown traded for Ed Ingram and they drafted Ariante Ursary I believe is how you pronounce it in the second round. So I think that there's going to be some growing pains but he's going to be given I feel like he's going to feel less pressure than he did last year and the offensive coordinator Nick Haley they've already talked about how they're hitting it off that he's giving him a lot more giving Stroud a lot more responsibility at the line of scrimmage and letting him take command which was not the case with previous regimes so that and then you know they they invested in weapons for him. We're not going to see Tank Dell this season unfortunately but traded for Christian Kirk and drafted the Iowa State teammates Jaden Higgins and man I'm I just think that especially for what he costs I I there's he might be my second favorite buy out of any quarterback.
- [22:19]
Heath Cummings
And I know who your first favorite buy is and and some people in the chat do also let's let's leave him out of it when we start thinking about our favorite QB twos that we haven't talked about. I did want to say in Stroud's favor is just I'm a pretty big fan of Jaden Higgins game and I so I and I they've got Christian Kirk who is nothing else a very solid slot. It's not as good as the receiving core was going into that last year but because of the injuries that Diggs and Tank suffered and because we had five games without Nico Collins I think there's a very very good chance when we get to the end of the year that the full season CJ Stroud had a better receiving core than he had last year. If everybody can just stay healthy. Who are your favorite QB2s excluding the guy who is your favorite buy we'll talk about him after the break.
- [23:11]
Jay
That would be it but actually it's a guy that I hope I'm not stepping on any toes but you wanted to talk about already I'm really in on Justin Fields this year which feels weird for me to say because I've never been in on Justin Fields from a fantasy perspective but I one I think that Aaron Glenn is really has a great shot of doing what Dan Campbell did in Detroit with the jets and turning that circus of a franchise into something respectable and solid. He's Justin Fields hasn't been the the passing quarterback that he was in college but he's cap. You know he was capable over 5,700 yards and 62 touchdowns in college. His completion percentage and QB rating have all gone up every single year of his career. If he can just be a decent passer with his rushing upside, he can easily jump into the top 10 quarterbacks. I feel like he's got a pretty safe floor with his rushing and like I said, if he takes even just a modest step forward in his passing production, he could really have a great season.
- [24:12]
Heath Cummings
Yeah, I think he is probably the most format dependent quarterback in Dynasty and it's for two different distinctions even like for one if you're in a one quarterback league I'm not so sure that Justin Field shouldn't be a top 12 quarterback because why do you care about a player's floor and in a one quarterback league when it's so easy to have these low cost options that are going to give you borderline top 12 production? In a super flex league that's more difficult because this could be his last year in the starter as a starter in the NFL if things go poorly and then he's obviously more valuable in leagues that reward four points per pass touchdown than six points per pass touchdown. Most CBS leagues are six. Most everywhere else is four. He has 45 passing touchdowns in 50 career games and still has produced as a top 12 quarterback most of the time that he's been the starter. So I think it really if you're in a 1 QB league that is only 4 points per pass touchdown. Well, Justin Fields definitely should be a top 12 dynasty quarterback. If you're in a super flex league that's six points per pass touchdown. That's a much more difficult argument to make and you really have to have a solid qb. Three Fields is my most rostered quarterback in Dynasty. I just took him yesterday in the FSG Experts League which is a one QB league for redraft. So I I love that answer. I'm all in on Fields as long as the format is right scares me a little bit. Otherwise we some Matt had a had a comment. Heath plays in six point per pass touchdown leagues. You know I've I've got a good mix of those things. I've got many leagues. I think my Preference is probably 6 I I my preference. And speaking of which, I've been putting together the rules for the the new FFT Dynasty Show League that will be announced very shortly and bid auction opportunities to join that league and support St. Jude will be opening up very shortly. But I did go with six points for past touchdown on that as well. I want to talk about we a few things I didn't put in the notes but I want to make sure we mention these guys because a lot of people play super flex and it is really important. So guys like Dak Prescott, Jared Goff, Baker Mayfield and even going down to Geno Smith, Russell Wilson, Matthew Stafford, even Aaron Rodgers over 30 years old. So we're a little less certain about the long term future and maybe limited upside but they definitely have the potential to be top 12 guys. Who's your favorite of those veteran quarter QB2s if you're a contender and you need to add one, I would probably.
- [27:02]
Jay
Stick still stick with Jared Goff. I know a lot of people are concerned with Ben Johnson leaving but I don't this offense isn't just going to fall flat on their face. They still have the weapons. They still like I said, I think very highly Dan Campbell, I think that they're really not going to miss a step the other guys. You know, I think Aaron Rodgers is actually going to be a little better than most people assume this year. I think the well deserved, well personal hate will deserve, you know whether that's here nor there but I think that that kind of clouds people's judgment a little bit if he's on the field. DK Metcalf, I mean Calvin Austin isn't a bad wide receiver too. I think he can be definitely limited ceiling but more of the foreplay and I think people are completely avoiding him. But yeah, out of those guys I would have to go with Jared Goff.
- [27:51]
Heath Cummings
I'm. I'm still going with Dak. He is a couple years older and he's had a few injury problems but I think if, if Dax right this year with CD Lamb, George Pickens and Jake Ferguson that could be a league winning acquisition that's a little bit too cheap because of the age. So that's probably where I'd go. A couple of second year guys that we or younger guys that we didn't really get to yet. I just want to see if you how much hope you have. J.J. mcCarthy hasn't done anything at all in the NFL yet but he gets to play in Kevin O' Connell system. He gets to play with Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison and T.J. hawkins. And you're talking about the best situations a second year quarterback could be in. He may challenge Caleb Williams but we've seen nothing from him. How do you value J.J. mcCarthy right now?
- [28:34]
Jay
I like him. I think that. I think he's obviously not anywhere close to like the Caleb Williams and stuff like that. I actually sold high. And what was it? It was, I traded J.J. mcCarthy, he was my, our third quarterback, J.J. mcCarthy for Justin Fields and the 107 in a Super flex lead which turned out to be Ted McMillan. So basically Fields and Tet for J.J. mcCarthy. And I was, I was happy with that return. But like you said, I mean playing in this system, we saw one game what he could do. Obviously it's preseason, but it depends how he's being valued. I wouldn't, you know, there's some people that are willing to already throw him into the top 10. Nowhere near that, but I put him in that high end QB2 range where he's got the potential to have those top 10 seasons. But I'm gonna stop short of, you know, long term top three, anything like that. And the, the floor is a lot lower than most people want to admit with him as well. That's why if, if you're able to sell high and get that QB1 value, it might be worth it for you.
- [29:38]
Heath Cummings
I'll just throw three guys at you for you to rank here and then we'll take a break and then we'll get to our favorite buys. But J.J. mcCarthy, Michael Pennix and Cam Ward, how would you rank those three in Dynasty?
- [29:51]
Jay
I would, I would probably go Pennix, then McCarthy, then a pretty big drop to Cam Ward.
- [30:03]
Heath Cummings
Okay, okay. So I actually have it in the reverse order. But I think the great thing about that QB2 range, whether you're talking about the quarterback, the older quarterbacks like Dak and Goff and Mayfield, whether talking about the young guys is there is a consensus because we can average everybody's takes out and we'll find a consensus. There's a consensus adp, but it doesn't go that way in every draft. In fact, you'd have a hard time finding three drafts where they go in the same order. So if you have a guy that is your favorite amongst that group that you strongly prefer, you can probably get him. You just got to find the right manager. Let's take our second break. We'll get to our buys and ourselves after this. The first season of CBS's new hit.
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Jay
The hell's that? Naval Investigative Service. We go where the evidence takes us.
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Heath Cummings
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- [31:07]
Jay
Gives welcome to the team.
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Heath Cummings
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- [31:13]
Chip Patterson
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- [31:47]
Heath Cummings
We are back. It's time to give you our favorite buys and sells at the quarterback position. Some people in the chat have been waiting 30 minutes for you to do this, Jay so who is your favorite Dynasty buy at the quarterback position?
- [32:01]
Jay
Yeah, we, my guy Mike talked about it earlier in the chat, but I'm, I'm still in on Trevor Lawrence. You know, he's, he's pretty a guy that causes a lot of arguments online and in person. But I think that the problem with Trevor Lawrence and why people are avoiding him so much is their failure to reset expectations for him. I don't think that Trevor Lawrence is that generational prospect, that perennial QB one overall, but I definitely think he has potential for top five seasons and people are just ready to wash their hands of him because they didn't meet those initial expectations. So I've had my some of my best moves in Dynasty have been when I've reset those expectations and gotten guys that while not necessarily hit the ceiling that I thought they would, you know, still produced and able to get at a value. Last season he had the third best accuracy rate and the second highest average depth of target with quarterbacks that started at least 10 games and before his injury last season, so it was weeks one through eight he had the second most pass plays of 20 or more yards, second best completion percentage on those types of passes, and coming off back to back 4,000 yard seasons despite the injuries, despite the struggles, and we talked about it earlier that, you know, the rushing for some of these quarterbacks doesn't get talked about enough. Trevor Lawrence averages about 320 rushing yards per season, about four rushing touchdowns. That's roughly four points a game. So whether it's a four point passing, touchdowns about a touchdown per game or if it's six, then okay, you can consider it negates about two interceptions per game. So that added value over a full season, really, it may seem like it's not that much, but it makes a big difference. And you know, the biggest thing is Liam Cohen coming over from Tampa Bay. There's been some debate whether it was Cohen or whether it was Dave Canalis. That quote unquote fixed Baker Mayfield. But regardless, under Cohen last season the the Bucks went from points per game ranked in the NFL 18th all the way up to 4th and Baker threw for a career high 41 yards. He's able to do that with Baker Mayfield. You know, give me a shot. I want to see what he can do with Trevor Lawrence and has one of the best young wide receivers in Brian Thomas Jr. And then they added some guy named Travis Hunter as well. So I just think that for what he cost, plus the potential ceiling, although I don't think he's that, like I said, that generational prospect that top, you know, I don't think he's got QB1 overall seasons in him, but I definitely think he's got some potential for top five.
- [34:39]
Heath Cummings
I'm a little bit scared that if I try to go trade for Trevor Lawrence I'm going to get punched in the mouth because I've spent four years making fun of all the people who still believed in Trevor Lawrence. But I, I do think like an important distinction. You were talking about making up for passing touchdowns and I'd referenced how few touchdowns Justin Fields has thrown in his NFL career. Justin Field's career passing touchdown rate is 15 higher than Trevor Lawrence's 4% to 3.4% and that it doesn't make any sense because when you watch Lawrence play, he looks, he passes the eye test. Probably better than somebody like Jalen Hurts who's already been to a couple of Super Bowls and won a Super bowl mvp. But he gets down into the red zone and things just go wrong. It's a common problem for first year quarterbacks. It looked like he was making a little improvement in his second year when he got up to 4.3% and then it's just, it's just struggled again. I, for the most part I would like to think somebody that good, man, he's got a good touchdown season coming. And when it does, that's when we're getting the Trevor Lawrence breakout. At the same time, after 2000 career passes, it gets a little more difficult for me to believe that he's going to fix that problem. And it really does limit the upside. And if he can't become even a league average touchdown rate guy, that the, the, the obvious thing that makes this all even more interesting is the fact that he has Brian Thomas Jr. Who was such a great surprise as a rookie last year. And then they spent the number two overall pick on the best player in college football last year, Travis Hunter. And so the receiving core is so good, the offensive core or the. The offensive system is so good and the eye test is so good that I, I am hopeful he's my QB19 in Dynasty. I think I might be a little higher or a little lower, but I am hopeful that we finally get the Trevor Lawrence season that everyone's been waiting so long for.
- [36:40]
Jay
One thing I will say too. Sorry, I didn't mean to interrupt you.
- [36:43]
Heath Cummings
Go ahead.
- [36:43]
Jay
One thing I'll add as well is I think you have to just cancel out the Urban Meyer years. But in all seriousness, he's on his fourth head coach in five years, so I think that that at least gives a little bit of an excuse as to why he hasn't taken that leap, that step forward so many years into his career already. Definitely. It's obviously on him as well. You can't explain it all the way with that, but that's something that you at least have to take into consideration 100%.
- [37:12]
Heath Cummings
I. That's another joke that I like to make is that it's. You never have to worry about finding an excuse for Trevor Lawrence because there's always several lined up. It was. It was always somebody else's or injury or I think there was weather one year that was the problem. My two buys, honestly, we've probably already talked about them enough. Brock Purdy is QB13 by current ADP. I have him at QB8. That pretty much tells you all you need to know. I expect more pass attempts. I think he's gonna be one of the most efficient passers in the NFL, just like he's been since he entered the league. And I'm not so sure that the weapons he has this year are going to be that much worse than what he had last year or when everybody was hurt. And then my second one was Justin Fields. I know super flex leagues factor into this, but he's current. Currently QB22 by ADP behind Michael Penck, behind JJ McCarthy, behind Cam Ward, five spots behind Trevor Lawrence. And that type of upside at that low of cost. Go buy Justin Fields. Jay, who are we selling?
- [38:21]
Jay
We talked about it earlier. Bo Nicks is really a sell for me and I just think that we may have seen his best fantasy season already. I think he's going to be a solid quarterback, solid NFL quarterback years to come. But I just, I don't see the upside that a lot of people do. I know that he's getting comparisons to to Drew Brees because of Sean Payton and and the stature and things like that but we were talking about his his completion percentage it was just average last season didn't have that great of a touchdown interception ratio is rushing was just like I said it wasn't efficient. It was more of the quantity versus quality. So I'm really it I'm looking to sell high on BO necks my cell.
- [39:04]
Heath Cummings
It brings me no pleasure to say this because Jared Goff is has been very good. I am higher than consensus on Jared Goff. I think he's a steal and redraft where he's going at like QB18 in according to ADP. I don't know how Aman Ross, St. Brown and Sam Laporta and Jameson Williams and Jamir Gibbs are all going to be so good and Jared Goff's QB18 by redraft ADP but on the other hand how in the world is a 30 year old quarterback who's QB18 by Redraft ADP currently QB14 by Dynasty ADP? That does not make any sense to me. A high end QB2 should either be someone who's young and going to perform in that range or older but we expect him to be a lot better than that range and right now we've got he's not old yet but he is old enough to where he doesn't get a discount for his or he doesn't get a boost for his age and nobody seems to think that he still has the same upside. I am more concerned than most about the Ben Johnson loss. I'm probably more concerned than most about the Ragnar loss. I still think he's not a bad bet at ADP and redraft but at QB14 in Dynasty four spots ahead of Dak who we were just talking about ahead of all those young guys. If I was in a one QB league I just flat out rather have Justin Fields than Jared Goff and you can get Justin Fields plus for Jared Goff according to rankings in ADP and I'd certainly rather have Brock Purdy who's five years younger and I think's probably going to perform about the same. So Jared Goff unfortunately is my cell. Do you want to defend golf at all?
- [40:46]
Jay
No, not really. You made really good points. Just the guy. I liked him more than the guys that you talked about. I think nail on the head I think super flex like He's a solid QB2 and you know he's somebody who if you can have both of those guys on your team like a Fields and a golf in a QB1 league, that's the perfect pairing.
- [41:07]
Heath Cummings
Yes. And I'd even take both those guys in a super flex league as long as I have a third guy like that's that's a little bit more reliable than Fields. Joey writes in the chat so happy to see two of his favorite people. Congrats on the new gig. J. We all absolutely agree with that and I'm just so happy that Joey still calls me one of his favorite people after I said something that wasn't very nice on Alfredo's podcast. Like not even sure if that's out yet. So I might have also ruined that. Man, am I a terrible friend. Let's talk about some of our favorite deep sleepers and waiver wire ads. I know in super flex leagues it's really hard to find any QB cheap. It's definitely difficult to find any QB on the waiver wire. I've got three guys here. You have a few more that you can give after mine so Joe Flacco, Daniel Jones, Kirk Cousins. I still think that Daniel Jones is most likely going to start Week one for the Colts. I don't know that either one of these quarterbacks can hold on to the job for 17 games, but he's been a mid QB2 at times, even a high end QB2 at times. Right now he's not even a top 30 quarterback in Dynasty rankings. I understand why, but if you want to add another potential starter to your quarterback room for a very low cost who still has the potential? I mean, what did we think about Sam Darnold at one point? Or Geno Smith at one point, or even Baker Mayfield at one point? There's maybe somebody could fix Daniel Jones. The Giants certainly could. Not Flacco. Man, I just, I just sit here every day wishing that Joe Flacco would be the starter for 17 games for the Cleveland Browns. I. I don't know and I should probably just have a have a tweet stream about this and just show it on the show one day. But I don't know if people realize over the last three years when Joe Flacco's gotten a chance to start, just how good the results have been. I know it's not good for winning football games, but it's great for us. And I don't care if the Browns win football games. They shouldn't even want to win football games. They should just want to have some entertaining things happen and make Jerry Judy And Dave and Ajoku feel good about themselves. Cedric Tillman to start. Joe Flacco, please. Kirk Cousins maybe maybe the Saints will decide they would like to have a starting quarterback on their roster this year. Maybe somebody will get hurt and Kirk Cousins will get a chance to start dirt dirt cheap and wasn't quite as bad as people act like he was last year. Who are, who are your deeper sleepers?
- [43:35]
Jay
I I When I sent you this message or the message through Twitter dms, I put Daniel Jones and Psy and then a lot of dots after that. I'm I'm with you on Daniel Jones. I've had him as a post type sleeper. I think that like you said, he's he wasn't as bad as well. He was as bad but the situation was as bad as well. And what and what I mean is his completion percentage over the past three seasons under pressure 455253 when he's not under pressure 697671 so you know, not amazing but you know, a pretty big gap and he's going from one of the worst offensive lines to one of the best offensive lines. The past few years the Giants have quarterbacks have faced second and third most pressure. The Colts are 17th and 15th so he's gonna have more time. And you know, even with Malik Neighbors last season as a grouping, this is probably the most talent that Daniel Jones has been surrounded by from a pass catching perspective. Pittman, Pierce, A.D. mitchell, Josh Downs and then you throw in Tyler Warren, it's got Jonathan Taylor in the backfield. I Daniel Jones does have a top 10 fantasy season under his belt. I do. I think he's going to be anywhere near top 10. No, but like Matt in the chat.
- [45:00]
Heath Cummings
He said but I believe in Daniel Jones as a top 15 QB this year. There I said it. That's a lot of bravery, Matt, and I want to applaud you for your bravery. Mike says he has a team with Anthony Richardson. He traded the 20, the 20, 25, 302 for Daniel Jones. Exactly what I'm talking about. I am not saying that we necessarily need to pay a lot for Daniel Jones. I wouldn't give up a second but if you can go get him for 302 absolutely love that. We have some questions in the chat and I'm going to go in reverse order because I I know that Jeff is disappointed in my ranking of Baker Mayfield and he wants to know how can a guy who's thrown more touchdowns than anybody the last two years not be a top five fantasy qb and it's a very good question. I, some of it is that I don't really buy the 41 touchdowns that he threw last year. He had a 7.2% pass touchdown rate. Those, that that percentage is one of the least stable metrics moving year to year for a fantasy quarterback the year before in Tampa, 4.9%. That's slightly above average. His career mark, 5%, that's, that's slightly above average. So if you look at what Baker Mayfield did last year and you say, okay, what if you would have had a 5% pass touchdown rate like he always has in the past, you're losing 12 touchdowns. Now he's at 29. Now he's the borderline QB, one that he's been when he's been good and he's been much worse when he's been bad. Also, I, I don't think it's right to be so excited about the players that are getting Ben Johnson and Liam Cohen and act like you don't care about the players that are losing Ben Johnson and Liam Cohen. So I've got a tiny bit of concern there. I'm excited about a Mecca Buka, but I don't know about Chris Godwin's ankle and Mike Evans is 32. And so I, I'm just a little bit concerned that we're going to get a three year stretch of Baker Mayfield being really good.
- [47:13]
Jay
Yeah.
- [47:16]
Heath Cummings
No, no notes there, there. Alyssa had a question about a very, very exciting quarterback prospect that we haven't talked about at all because we don't know if he's ever going to get the a chance to start. It's Jalen Milroe who could be maybe the best rushing quarterback in the NFL if he gets a chance. He also may not get a chance. And so if she has Jalen Milroe wants to know, would you trade Jalen Milroe for Tyrone Tracy and Austin eckler in a 12 team super flex league? Assuming we're a little weak at running back and probably have a lot of depth at quarterback, but we don't know that for sure. How do you feel about Milro? Do you think he ever gets a chance and would you be willing to make a trade like this?
- [47:59]
Jay
I would prefer to hang on to Milroe and part of it has to do with the return here. I'm not sold on Tracy. I know he was better than anticipated last season, but he wasn't that efficient. A lot of it came on volume for him. Now they drafted Scatterbow with Eckler, he Is, you know, he's getting up there in age. He's a great guy. He's a great fantasy analyst, but. Right. Not somebody I'm really looking to add to my team in fantasy, especially in Dynasty and Noro like we've, you know, he's one of those that if he gets on the field under center as a starter, he'll be worth starting simply because of his rushing upside. And I, you know, I was in on Sam Darnold last year because of the system. I don't know if I buy Sam Donald long term. I think there's a very real possibility that Muro gets starts the season.
- [48:51]
Heath Cummings
It kind of feels like you bought a $1 lottery ticket that has a million dollar jackpot and you know, the odds aren't very good, but somebody's just offered you a quarter and a nickel for that one you just spent a dollar on. Exactly. I'm not, I'm not giving it up for that. If there's somebody in your league that's intoxicated by his upside, make them pay more than this is what I would say. Otherwise, let's just, let's hold on to that lottery ticket. You never know. Sometimes people win on those. Right. Surely we had a question here. 12 Team Super Flex. I have Baker Mayfield, Drake May, Justin Fields, J.J. mcCarthy. Who would you be looking to move to upgrade the roster elsewhere or add future picks?
- [49:38]
Jay
Honestly, I know you're asking who to move. I would, I would hang on to all these guys. If I had to pick one, I would probably say Baker just because of what Heath went on about and hit every note that I would have hit. And the other guys have the upside that Baker doesn't. Although you know, we've got some in the chat saying top five dynasty, quarterback. There's still the youth with May, Fields and McCarthy. The upsides there if outside of Baker, maybe JJ McCarthy, because I feel like you're going to be able to get the best return for him. If you want to hang on to Baker. I would honestly, unless you're have a dire need at another position. I would keep all four guys because, you know, there's. What if Justin Fields gets benched? Then you're down to three quarterbacks. What if one of these guys gets hurt? Down to three quarterbacks. There's so many things that can go wrong, especially in Super Flex. 12 Team Super Flex. I would hang on to all four.
- [50:31]
Heath Cummings
I, I think you put two options down there at the bottom. Either to upgrade the roster elsewhere or add future picks. And I. What I. What I'd like to do in this situation is clarify first off, where's my team and which of those things makes more sense. If you're a true contender and you're trying to go win the league right now and you want to add to another position, then my answer would probably be JJ McCarthy. Although looking at recent ADP, Drake May is currently QB8 and so he's the guy you're going to get the most for.
- [51:06]
Jay
What I said about J.J. mcCarthy in May with that kind of ADP, the.
- [51:10]
Heath Cummings
Problem with trading Baker unless you're if, if you're going the rebuilding route and I think Baker's the obvious answer, but the problem with trading Baker if you're a contender is as much as I love Justin Fields, there's questions as much, especially about past this year. As much as I'm excited about JJ McCarthy, there's probably even more questions for this year and no certainty beyond that. And Drake May, we haven't actually seen be a top 12 quarterback yet. So if I'm contending, there's no way I'm trading Baker. If I'm rebuilding, I'm certainly trading Baker. But I like your idea too. Like you, you could just hold on to all these four guys and if one of them has a spike week, that might be the week to move them or if somebody gets hurt, then you won't to move any of them. Jordan, another 12 Team Super Flex league has to be the most common league choice, at least for people who listen to this podcast. Where do you rank this year's top three QBs with Caleb Williams and Trevor Lawrence? And I think I can answer for Jay. The question is behind them.
- [52:13]
Jay
Yes, way behind them. Closer than as much as I love Trevor Lawrence, Caleb Williams is much closer to those guys.
- [52:22]
Heath Cummings
But yeah, well, I took this as the the top three rookies.
- [52:26]
Jay
Oh, I'm from this class. So yes, Caleb's, I'm sorry, a tier.
- [52:31]
Heath Cummings
And a half behind the top three overall quarterbacks. Trevor Lawrence is not in the same state as the top three quarterbacks. If we're talking about the the rookies, I would say Caleb Williams is not in the same state as Cam Ward. Trevor Lawrence is. I think that is one of those things. I have Ward just ahead. Some people have Lawrence just ahead.
- [52:52]
Jay
Adp, Georgia line thing right there. I think right.
- [52:56]
Heath Cummings
That that one's a little bit questionable. None of the other rookies are in the same neighborhood as Trevor Lawrence. So that's where we're at on those guys. A couple more questions. Would you consider Jay, would Not, I'm gonna tell you right now. Would you consider tearing down from Mahomes to Nicks for a second round pick?
- [53:12]
Jay
Not even remotely close, no.
- [53:13]
Heath Cummings
Would you do it for a 20, 26 first?
- [53:19]
Jay
I know you can't project where, you know right where the, the picks are going to be, but if it looks like it's going to be a, a top half of the, the draft, I would, I would strongly consider that, yes.
- [53:30]
Heath Cummings
Right. And the problem is that most starts with that first. Most people that are trading a first to upgrade from Knicks to Mahomes are probably not in a rebuild, so.
- [53:38]
Jay
Exactly.
- [53:39]
Heath Cummings
So no, I, I wouldn't do that either. I'd rather hold on to Mahomes. How do you measure the future value of older quarterbacks? How many more years do you assume for Allen and I? You know, when I first read this question, I heard older quarterbacks. I certainly didn't think we were going to talk about Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes. But Jay, I'm rapidly turning into an older fantasy analyst and I didn't think that was going to happen. Patrick Mahomes will be 29. So will Josh Allen at the start of this season. Oh, where did time go?
- [54:11]
Jay
I'm inclined to draft. I'm drafting the sons of guys that I drafted when I, I was winning, you know, winning my first championships.
- [54:19]
Heath Cummings
So I will just say this is a place where I know there's some disagreement from others. I feel more certain that we're going to get or hopeful. Certain. Hopeful 7 to 10 more years of top 12 production from Patrick Mahomes than I do Josh Allen. I, I, he was a little better last year with Josh Allen protection, and he is a superhero. So maybe he can just always play football like he does and never get hurt. But I, I'm a little bit worried that the history of guys who run as much as Josh Allen and run in the manner that Josh Allen runs past 30 is not quite as good. But how do you, how do you view it? Do you think that it's just like we got another decade of Alan and Mahomes? We shouldn't even think about it?
- [55:08]
Jay
I do, Yeah, I think we do with both of them. But out of the two, I feel the most confident about Mahomes, not only because of that, but, you know, look at the, the coaching situation. And Patrick Mahomes has shown if he needs to be the guy that airs it out, he can be that guy. If he needs to dial it back like he has the past couple of seasons with a better defense, he can be that guy and still be on that QB1 borderline, QB1 high and QB2. I know he's had some down seasons but I'm, I'm not fading. Patrick Mahomes not even remotely close and right. You know, Sean McDermott does still kind of concern me in Buffalo and you know they've, they've flown through offensive coordinator, offensive coordinators, not for positive reasons. There are definitely more questions in Buffalo than people want to admit.
- [55:54]
Heath Cummings
We had one more question from the chat. Joey has a trade question. Would you trade a lunch date with Joey in New York City at Cats Deli for anything in this world?
- [56:03]
Jay
Absolutely not. Absolutely. In two weeks with Joey, we're going to New York City for the Flex League drafts and we've had that date set for almost a full year now.
- [56:13]
Heath Cummings
So I, I'm doing the Flex League this year. I'm in the online Super Flex version. I couldn't make it up to New York City because I'm just traveling all over America right now.
- [56:23]
Jay
But it's a lot of fun.
- [56:26]
Heath Cummings
I'd love to do it. I will do it in the future. Jay, thank you so much for helping us walk through the state of the quarterback position. Just real quick before we go tell everybody about QB list and what it is and how they can be involved.
- [56:40]
Jay
Yeah, so apologize about those technical difficulties at the beginning. Got those resolved. But yeah, I just joined QB List about a month ago. I'm the lead analyst over there. It's the sister site to Pitcher list if you're familiar with Nick Pollock and his amazing work. Looking to take that, the model that the, the amazing site that he's built and bring that over to QB list and we've got some, some awesome talent. I've got two series that have just dropped a referenced both of them flag plants, pretty much the guys at each position that I want and post type sleepers Daniel Jones and it made me throw up in my mouth a little bit but I did add him to that list. We got a lot of preseason content coming out through July and then as of I believe we're tentatively targeting August 13th for a full on draft guide and it's not your your traditional rankings and that it's going to have a little bit more of how I play, why I do the things that I do, some more theory behind it and we're we've got one of the really cool things about QB List is we've got an excellent team that goes through and we have a what we saw series and basically we have a team that literally watches every single game, not just box score reading and goes through and gives you a summary of from a fantasy, fantasy perspective of each fantasy viable player. So it's not just, you know, touching on the highlights. It's somebody who watched the game and gives you a fantasy spin on it. So it's. I know teeth. At least for me. I'm sure it is for you. It's impossible to watch every single game no matter how many TVs you have to have that set of eyes on each game that really puts them the time to watch what's going on is extremely helpful.
- [58:20]
Heath Cummings
Awesome, awesome stuff, Jay. I will be out next week, but we will be returning in August and we've got Sigmund Bloom coming back. I can't wait for that. That's going to be awesome. We've got some really exciting stuff. Last last thing that I want to tell you guys who are still here in the chat. You guys are awesome and you're part of what makes this show go. I always thank you for the questions, but I want to say send an email to fft dynastyaramount.com Tell me about how long you've been listening to FFT Dynasties. Maybe one of your favorite moments. Definitely include your name from the YouTube chat here. I'm gonna find a way to get you guys at least one of you, hopefully more in the FFT Dynasty show league. So send me that email, tell me some stories about year one of FFT Dynasty or something like that, and we'll get a couple of you. We'll talk to you in in a week.
- [59:23]
Lena Waithe
Paramount Podcasts.