Podcast Summary: Fantasy Football Today
Episode: Super Bowl 59 DFS Main Slate Lineups, Picks, Stacks and Ownership (FFT DFS)
Release Date: February 7, 2025

Introduction

In the season finale of Fantasy Football Today, host Si Najad welcomes co-hosts Meg Shoup and Mike McClure to discuss strategies for the Super Bowl 59 DFS (Daily Fantasy Sports) slate. The conversation centers around optimal lineups, game predictions, player performances, and ownership trends to help listeners maximize their chances of dominating their fantasy leagues.

Game Predictions and General Discussion

Si Najad ([01:52]) opens the discussion by highlighting the matchup between the Kansas City Chiefs and the Philadelphia Eagles. He expresses skepticism about the Chiefs' recent performance, stating, “I like the Eagles to squeak out a win here,” while acknowledging the challenge in predicting outcomes against a consistently strong team like Kansas City.

Mike McClure ([02:39]) shares his excitement for the game, anticipating a competitive matchup reminiscent of their previous Super Bowl encounter. He notes, “Kansas City doesn't really blow anyone out ever,” suggesting a tightly contested game with potential for a blowout win by the Eagles but not by the Chiefs.

Meg Shoup ([03:42]) aligns with Si’s perspective, emphasizing the strength of both teams' rosters and coaching. She leans towards an Eagles victory but remains open to surprises given the dynamic nature of the matchup.

DFS Lineup Strategies

Game Scripts

Si Najad ([04:44]) prompts the hosts to discuss primary game scripts based on their simulations. Mike emphasizes a balanced approach, favoring “three threes and four twos” from each team. He highlights the rushing prowess of Jalen Hurts, suggesting scenarios where Hurts could outscore Patrick Mahomes despite heavy investments in Chiefs' pass catchers.

Meg Shoup ([05:41]) echoes the focus on Hurts, alongside Saquon Barkley, positing that the Eagles' running game will be pivotal. She envisions touchdowns predominantly from the ground game, supporting a lineup centered around Hurts and Barkley with supplementary Chiefs’ players.

Captain Picks

Si Najad ([08:16] & [09:37]) raises the critical question of selecting captains for DFS lineups. The discussion emphasizes the high value of Jalen Hurts, Patrick Mahomes, Saquon Barkley, and emerging talents like Xavier Worthy. Mike notes, “Saquon Barkley is going to be most optimal for DFS,” while Meg considers both Hurts and Barkley as primary captain options.

Contrarian Plays

Meg Shoup ([33:09]) introduces a contrarian game script, suggesting an Eagles win by a touchdown or more. This strategy involves utilizing a “four-two Eagles” approach, leveraging the concentrated offensive strength of the Eagles to outscore expectations.

Mike McClure ([35:05]) proposes a double kicker strategy, anticipating a lower-scoring game where both teams' kickers could accumulate points. He explains, “If the final score is 20 to 17, both kickers are involved,” presenting an unconventional but potentially profitable lineup configuration.

Player Highlights

• Jalen Hurts: Central to both hosts' strategies, leveraging his dual-threat capability.
• Patrick Mahomes: A staple in DFS lineups due to his consistent high performance.
• Saquon Barkley: While valuable, both hosts express reservations about his performance in this specific matchup.
• Travis Kelce & Xavier Worthy: Identified as key targets for their high potential and favorable matchups.
• Dallas Goddard: Highlighted for his strong playoff performance and potential to exceed projections.
• Harrison Butker: Valued for his kicking range and potential field goals, especially in a tight game scenario.

Ownership Insights

Ownership percentages play a crucial role in DFS strategies. Mike McClure ([09:37]) shares that high-ownership players like Hurts, Mahomes, and Barkley are common in optimal lineups. Conversely, players like Kareem Hunt and A.J. Brown present lower ownership opportunities, offering potential edge plays for contrarian lineups. Meg Shoup ([19:00]) adds that utilizing low-cost, low-ownership players such as Juju Smith Schuster and Noah Gray can differentiate lineups and capitalize on unexpected performances.

Audience Questions & Discussion

The hosts engage with listener comments, addressing topics like:

• Josh Lucera's Comment ([08:16]): Discussing the potential of Xavier Worthy catching 7-10 balls for a 100-yard bonus, which both hosts consider plausible given his role in the offense.
• Greg Goose Hayes ([25:16]): Debating the likelihood of the Eagles blowing out the Chiefs, with an emphasis on acknowledging the team's overall strength rather than attributing outcomes to luck.

Final Thoughts & Closing Remarks

As the season concludes, Meg Shoup ([37:00]) reflects on the rapid pace of the season and expresses enthusiasm for the upcoming Best Ball season. Mike McClure ([37:39]) encourages listeners to explore DFS options beyond NFL, such as PGA, highlighting its less intensive time commitment and unique strategies.

Si Najad ([38:21]) wraps up the episode by thanking listeners, promoting upcoming content related to golf betting and DFS, and inviting feedback through reviews on platforms like Apple and Spotify.

Notable Quotes

• Mike McClure ([02:39]): “I think it's going to be a good game because you look at the way Kansas City plays, they don't really blow anyone out ever.”
• Meg Shoup ([05:41]): “I'm very similar to you. I've done the exact same thing... I kinda do think the Eagles win, but again, nothing would surprise me.”
• Mike McClure ([09:37]): “I've got him up to 28%. Then Patrick Mahomes, 23. Xavier Worthy is third... It is Jalen Hurts.”
• Meg Shoup ([19:00]): “I do have interest. Juju Smith Schuster. I think he's running the third most routes. Low ownership there.”
• Mike McClure ([22:47]): “He is still on the field in the most valuable area and that is the red zone.”
• Meg Shoup ([28:47]): “I like Hertz and Saquon and I'm going to do a lot of Hurts and Saquon together.”
• Mike McClure ([35:05]): “There is a scenario here where the final score of this game is 20 to 17. And if that happens, both kickers are involved.”

This episode provided in-depth analysis and strategic insights for listeners preparing their DFS lineups for the Super Bowl. By focusing on high-potential players, exploring contrarian strategies, and considering ownership trends, the hosts equipped their audience with the tools needed to craft competitive and winning fantasy football teams.