Super Bowl 59 DFS Main Slate Lineups, Picks, Stacks and Ownership (FFT DFS)

Summary

Podcast Summary: Fantasy Football Today
Episode: Super Bowl 59 DFS Main Slate Lineups, Picks, Stacks and Ownership (FFT DFS)
Release Date: February 7, 2025

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Introduction

In the season finale of Fantasy Football Today, host Si Najad welcomes co-hosts Meg Shoup and Mike McClure to discuss strategies for the Super Bowl 59 DFS (Daily Fantasy Sports) slate. The conversation centers around optimal lineups, game predictions, player performances, and ownership trends to help listeners maximize their chances of dominating their fantasy leagues.

Game Predictions and General Discussion

Si Najad ([01:52]) opens the discussion by highlighting the matchup between the Kansas City Chiefs and the Philadelphia Eagles. He expresses skepticism about the Chiefs' recent performance, stating, “I like the Eagles to squeak out a win here,” while acknowledging the challenge in predicting outcomes against a consistently strong team like Kansas City.

Mike McClure ([02:39]) shares his excitement for the game, anticipating a competitive matchup reminiscent of their previous Super Bowl encounter. He notes, “Kansas City doesn't really blow anyone out ever,” suggesting a tightly contested game with potential for a blowout win by the Eagles but not by the Chiefs.

Meg Shoup ([03:42]) aligns with Si’s perspective, emphasizing the strength of both teams' rosters and coaching. She leans towards an Eagles victory but remains open to surprises given the dynamic nature of the matchup.

DFS Lineup Strategies

Game Scripts

Si Najad ([04:44]) prompts the hosts to discuss primary game scripts based on their simulations. Mike emphasizes a balanced approach, favoring “three threes and four twos” from each team. He highlights the rushing prowess of Jalen Hurts, suggesting scenarios where Hurts could outscore Patrick Mahomes despite heavy investments in Chiefs' pass catchers.

Meg Shoup ([05:41]) echoes the focus on Hurts, alongside Saquon Barkley, positing that the Eagles' running game will be pivotal. She envisions touchdowns predominantly from the ground game, supporting a lineup centered around Hurts and Barkley with supplementary Chiefs’ players.

Captain Picks

Si Najad ([08:16] & [09:37]) raises the critical question of selecting captains for DFS lineups. The discussion emphasizes the high value of Jalen Hurts, Patrick Mahomes, Saquon Barkley, and emerging talents like Xavier Worthy. Mike notes, “Saquon Barkley is going to be most optimal for DFS,” while Meg considers both Hurts and Barkley as primary captain options.

Contrarian Plays

Meg Shoup ([33:09]) introduces a contrarian game script, suggesting an Eagles win by a touchdown or more. This strategy involves utilizing a “four-two Eagles” approach, leveraging the concentrated offensive strength of the Eagles to outscore expectations.

Mike McClure ([35:05]) proposes a double kicker strategy, anticipating a lower-scoring game where both teams' kickers could accumulate points. He explains, “If the final score is 20 to 17, both kickers are involved,” presenting an unconventional but potentially profitable lineup configuration.

Player Highlights

• Jalen Hurts: Central to both hosts' strategies, leveraging his dual-threat capability.
• Patrick Mahomes: A staple in DFS lineups due to his consistent high performance.
• Saquon Barkley: While valuable, both hosts express reservations about his performance in this specific matchup.
• Travis Kelce & Xavier Worthy: Identified as key targets for their high potential and favorable matchups.
• Dallas Goddard: Highlighted for his strong playoff performance and potential to exceed projections.
• Harrison Butker: Valued for his kicking range and potential field goals, especially in a tight game scenario.

Ownership Insights

Ownership percentages play a crucial role in DFS strategies. Mike McClure ([09:37]) shares that high-ownership players like Hurts, Mahomes, and Barkley are common in optimal lineups. Conversely, players like Kareem Hunt and A.J. Brown present lower ownership opportunities, offering potential edge plays for contrarian lineups. Meg Shoup ([19:00]) adds that utilizing low-cost, low-ownership players such as Juju Smith Schuster and Noah Gray can differentiate lineups and capitalize on unexpected performances.

Audience Questions & Discussion

The hosts engage with listener comments, addressing topics like:

• Josh Lucera's Comment ([08:16]): Discussing the potential of Xavier Worthy catching 7-10 balls for a 100-yard bonus, which both hosts consider plausible given his role in the offense.
• Greg Goose Hayes ([25:16]): Debating the likelihood of the Eagles blowing out the Chiefs, with an emphasis on acknowledging the team's overall strength rather than attributing outcomes to luck.

Final Thoughts & Closing Remarks

As the season concludes, Meg Shoup ([37:00]) reflects on the rapid pace of the season and expresses enthusiasm for the upcoming Best Ball season. Mike McClure ([37:39]) encourages listeners to explore DFS options beyond NFL, such as PGA, highlighting its less intensive time commitment and unique strategies.

Si Najad ([38:21]) wraps up the episode by thanking listeners, promoting upcoming content related to golf betting and DFS, and inviting feedback through reviews on platforms like Apple and Spotify.

Notable Quotes

• Mike McClure ([02:39]): “I think it's going to be a good game because you look at the way Kansas City plays, they don't really blow anyone out ever.”
• Meg Shoup ([05:41]): “I'm very similar to you. I've done the exact same thing... I kinda do think the Eagles win, but again, nothing would surprise me.”
• Mike McClure ([09:37]): “I've got him up to 28%. Then Patrick Mahomes, 23. Xavier Worthy is third... It is Jalen Hurts.”
• Meg Shoup ([19:00]): “I do have interest. Juju Smith Schuster. I think he's running the third most routes. Low ownership there.”
• Mike McClure ([22:47]): “He is still on the field in the most valuable area and that is the red zone.”
• Meg Shoup ([28:47]): “I like Hertz and Saquon and I'm going to do a lot of Hurts and Saquon together.”
• Mike McClure ([35:05]): “There is a scenario here where the final score of this game is 20 to 17. And if that happens, both kickers are involved.”

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This episode provided in-depth analysis and strategic insights for listeners preparing their DFS lineups for the Super Bowl. By focusing on high-potential players, exploring contrarian strategies, and considering ownership trends, the hosts equipped their audience with the tools needed to craft competitive and winning fantasy football teams.

Transcript

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[Si Najad]

What's up, everybody? Welcome to fantasy football today dfs. My name is Si Najad, and of course, as usual, I'm joined by Meg shoup and Mike McClure. Megan. Mike, this is, I guess our final show of the season. I mean, I don't know how it wouldn't be with one game left. Mike, I'll start with you. It's your Kansas City Chiefs. We're going to be talking, you know, listen, game predictions, maybe some talking points when it comes to props, but obviously this is going to be a DFS heavy show, but it's going to be pretty conversational. So if you have any questions, certainly let us know. Mike. Kansas City, they're back in this thing. I mean, this feels like. I think I heard Eric Casillius say it earlier. Maybe he got it from somebody else. It feels like the super bowl is the Patrick Mahomes Invitational, because it's just like more of the same. So how you feeling about this game?

[Mike McClure]

I'm very excited for it. See, I think we get another classic, kind of like we did the first time these teams met in the Super Bowl. Most recently. Now, I. I don't know that it'll be as high scoring as that matchup was, but I think it's going to be a good game because you look at the way Kansas City plays, they don't really blow anyone out ever. Right. So there's certainly a scenario where Philly wins in a blowout, but I don't see Kansas City winning a blowout. So I think we're in for a very competitive game just because of how these two teams play. Very excited for it, though. I think it's a great DFS game.

[Si Najad]

Yeah, we're going to get to that in just a second. Meg. I, you know, and Mike knows this. When the 49ers were playing the. The Chiefs, when anybody's playing the Chiefs, I always lean the other way. And it's always because I'm like, I haven't seen enough from Kansas City. This. I think they're falling off. Like, three years ago, I was like, they don't have Tyreek Hill. Kelsey's getting older. Such and such team is good. I gotta be honest, I like the Eagles to squeak out a win here, but I feel like I'm just always on the wrong side of it. So any. Anything from a game prediction standpoint, how do you think this game is going to go?

[Meg Shoup]

I'm very similar to you. I've done the exact same thing. And so far, I kind of feel the exact same way that I am on the Eagles in that I think every conversation about the super bowl this week has been, it's kind of the better roster versus the better quarterback and coach. Right. I mean, I'm not saying anything that anybody hasn't said a million times already, but it's true. And so I kind of do think the Eagles win, but again, nothing would surprise me. It's Mahomes, it's Andy Reid, so that's likely how I'll be playing it. But. But, yeah, nothing will surprise me.

[Si Najad]

Mike, let's start with some, like, game scripts, and before we get into maybe specific players, although we can highlight specific players, too. And, Meg, you and Mike will kind of toggle back and forth here. Is there maybe a couple of primary game scripts through your simulations that you've thought, all right, this is kind of what I'm going with, and I know that's such a broad question, but when you're looking at some of the lineups that you liked initially or that you continue to like initially, where have those game scripts kind of headed?

[Mike McClure]

Yeah. So I think there are many ways that you can build here. I'm still building mostly for competitive games, so I'm mostly balanced. So basically like three threes and four twos in terms of, you know, players from each team. I'm not getting a ton of five ones. When I look at it, though, the thing that I think is most interesting is the rushing ability of Jalen Hurts. There are many scenarios where Jalen Hurts just outscores Patrick Mahomes while you are loaded with Kansas City pass catchers. Right. So just because of the rushing upside and because of that tush push at the goal line and rushing touchdowns being so valuable. So some of the builds that I'm making will maybe seem like some heavy negative correlation, meaning like Jalen Hurts captain, but against the Kansas City defense and things like that. So I'm getting a lot of Hurts, but with a lot of the Kansas City pieces attached to Jalen Hurts.

[Si Najad]

Meg, I, I kind of like hurts in this game, I think, more than anybody. And we'll talk about, you know, some captains that, that you all like more than, than others, but I think Jalen Hurts can get there in multiple ways. I mean, if the Chiefs sell out and try to stop Saquon Barkley, which I, I tend to think they need to do, because I think the way this Kansas City rush defense has been over the last month, six weeks, I mean, you can kind of five, six yards them to death and, and you could have Saquon Barkley just milk clock and, and ultimately score some touchdowns. I think Jalen Hurts can get there via the Tush push, via the rushing yards, which I, I think he slated for around. Projected for around 40 rushing yards. I think he can score touchdowns with his legs, obviously. But I also think if you sell out and try to stop Saquon Barkley, I mean, you could see some single coverage with guys like Devonte Smith, A.J. brown, we all know Dallas Goddard might get some volume as well. But I think there's multiple paths to Jalen Hurts. And I like what Mike said about maybe having Jalen Hurts in the captain position and then just kind of like loading up on Chiefs. That doesn't mean no eagles beyond Jalen Hurts, but I think we could see a huge Jalen Hurts game in a few of the primary pass catchers. Like Xavier Worthy or Travis Kelsey really get there as well. How are you like in terms of like primary game scripts? Primary builds? What are you looking at?

[Meg Shoup]

Yeah, I have been playing around with lineups with the Eagles, Eagles to win and basically all coming through Jalen Hurts and Saquon Barkley. Similar to the Washington game. It wouldn't shock me if however many Eagles touchdowns are scored that they are on the all on the ground from Jalen Hurts and Saquon Barkley. Now I'm not ruling out obviously Jalen Hurts passing touchdowns or anything like that. I'm just saying that would not surprise me at all. So I'm kind of really building with those two in all my lineups and one of them, I've been playing around with one of them as the captain and then just making it work from either another Eagles piece and then, and then filling in with the Chiefs pieces because there, as Mike said, there's a lot of low price Chiefs pieces. You know, Butker is, is, you know, obviously the kicker can outscore some of the players he's priced near. So you know, I like Bucker, I like some of those cheaper Chiefs pieces. Maybe one expensive Chiefs piece like Kelsey. We saw obvious obviously what tight ends in the playoffs have done to the Eagles. I know we say that about the Chiefs, but both tight ends, or excuse me, both teams have good tight end matchups essentially. So yeah, I, I, so I, that's my very long way of saying I like Hertz and Saquon and I'm going to do a lot of Hurts and Saquon together and then, and then fill it out from there. And I like both, you know, alternating both of them in the captain.

[Si Najad]

Mike, we've got some comments in the chat that I think are worth talking about. First of all, Josh Lucera says if Casey is trail could worthy catch 7 to 10 balls and 100 yard bonus. That's a question. I absolutely think that's in play. Xavier Worthy's my favorite play. We'll get to that in just a little bit. We've got Greg Goose Hayes that says I think Casey's luck finally runs out and Philly blows them out. That's, that's a range of outcome that like that's certainly within the range of outcomes. But we got to stop calling it Casey Luck at this point. I mean there's just too much of a sample size and I, I'm, listen, I'm, I've been guilty of that too. But at this point this team is just good and absolutely knows how to close let's see. James A. Okay, so this is where. This is a good stopping point question. Who to put in the captain position is the million dollar question. So, Mike, here's the thing. When I did, when I ran an optimizer and you know, it was pretty conservative in terms of like, you know, I. I didn't really mess with any of the tools. I just kind of ran it. Patrick Mahomes, Jalen hurts, Dallas Goddard, Travis Kelsey came up. I'd like to add Xavier Worthy to that mix because I do think he could be. I think people still perceive him as sort of like the long play threat. That's very much not what he is. He's the guy that could absolutely catch five, six, seven balls and take a wide receiver screen or, or a quick slant to the house. With that said captain position, Mike, what. What were some of your favorites? Who's popping up?

[Mike McClure]

Yeah, I'll just read some of the exposures when I. I basically have it build 2000 lineups and just look and see how often everyone's coming in. Uh, no surprise, Saquon, Barclays going to be the top, uh, in terms of the most optimal, I've got him up to 28%. Then Patrick Mahomes, 23. Xavier Worthy is third, though he comes in actually ahead of Jalen Hurts in terms of being optimal, which I found to be interesting because I would not have put that there, you know, if I was talking about it or thinking through it manually. But then it is Jalen hurts. So it's Barkley, Mahomes, Worthy, Hertz, and then Kelsey would be the top five there after that. I'm getting very low exposure, but still getting a little A.J. brown, a little Goddard, a little Smith. And that is basically it. The one that I found to be pretty interesting is I'm not getting any cream hunt really like 2% out of 2,000 lineups, like 2%. And I think that that is interesting because he does still touch the football in the red zone and it's still very possible that he scores two touchdowns in this game. So I, I'm not going to have Kareem Hunt at the captain, which will be, you know, again, potentially interesting to see. But I wasn't getting a lot of flex either. So basically that's where I'm going to be most vulnerable is to any Kansas City rushing touchdowns, because I'm not going to have any Kansas City running backs.

[Si Najad]

You know, I was thinking about. Because we were talking about super bowl mvp. I was talking Super Bowl MVP with Josh Ingles from Covers Yesterday and actually with Emery Hunt and Kiana Martin on, on hq and I was trying to come up like I like Jalen hurts at plus 350 because I think the numbers kind of obnoxious whether I'm a Jalen Hurts fan or not. Like +350 for a quarterback is a little silly to me. With that said, I was trying to come up with arguments for like Xavier worthy as MVP. That was around 26 to 1 but Kareem Hunt at 60 to 1 and listen I, you know it's 61 for a reason, right. But I, but Mike, my follow up question to the Kareem Hunt thing is A I think putting him in the captain position is interesting if nobody's going to play him and B, if you're going to do that, don't you have to do that with the Kansas City defense? Because to me the only way that comes through is if we're creating short fields for Kareem Hunt and that's stymying the pass attempts from Patrick Mahomes which obviously lessens the, the exposure to you know, Xavier Worthy, Travis Kel, Chelsea short fields by the defense Cream Hunt kind of running in some short touchdowns. Would that be the way to think about a Kareem Hunt captain lineup?

[Mike McClure]

I think it could be, yes. I also think it would be for me personally it would be more of a shootout game that it would get there.

[Si Najad]

Gotcha.

[Mike McClure]

Just you know, having enough, enough volume, enough scoring there. So in a low scoring game like yeah, it's definitely possible and again that's where I'm going to be most vulnerable. Right. If that happens and it's a two touchdown game for Kareem Hunt, I'm prob going to lose everything I enter in this spot. Now to protect against that I will. Which we've talked about this a couple times, you know, over the years really through certain things. I don't mind playing a Kareem hunt anytime touchdown plus 150 or better as sort of a little hedge there. There is zero scenario that Kareem Hunt is optimal number one but even needed if he doesn't score a touchdown, there's just no volume, there's no passing volume, there's nothing there to where his, his. He's not scoring 10 Fantas without landing in the end zone. Right. It's essentially impossible in this game. So at + 150 I will be sprinkling a little on the anytime touchdown because I'm not going to get him in dfs and that's just going to be how I personally handle this situation with him.

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[Si Najad]

Meg, before I get to you, a couple of comments. First of all, Andrew Raub. I think I'm pronouncing that last name right. Says make Mike see you. Three of my favorite people to listen to for betting and dfs. Underdog dailies. God bless you all and let's go Chiefs. Boo those Eagles. I mean, listen, I'm, I'm, I'm not an Eagles guy. This is Mike. Go ahead.

[Mike McClure]

I didn't think you were going to read the last sentence. The last part of that. That comment I thought was going to get cut off somehow.

[Meg Shoup]

Well, I know Andrew. He's a diehard Washington fan like Garcia, so he, you know, it turns his stomach to make, to think of the Eagles winning, but I'm sure he's supporting Mike, too.

[Si Najad]

I kind of can't stand the Eagles. If I'm being honest, anywhere where I feel like I'm like in danger, going to their, to their stadium and rooting for my team is just, I'm not going to be a big fan of that. And anybody who says that I'm being hyperbolic, I, I Don't know what to tell you. I just don't think you're in tune to what's actually going on. Pod son says fantasy football season is over, but Andrew says fantasy football season is never over. If you play best ball makes shop, which you absolutely do. Okay, so let's talk. Let's talk favorite captain plays. We heard a couple from Mike and we'll toggle back and forth maybe with a couple of more and some some game game scripts and some contrarian game scripts. But any favorite captains for you, Mike?

[Meg Shoup]

Yeah, I mean I think the way Mike listed it out makes perfect sense. Like I agree I kind of co sign that I'm playing less lineup so I'm probably going to pick and choose and kind of focus on the Eagle side Hurts Saquon and Goddard are going to be my three top captains still filling in with you know, probably likely said it's going to be a balance 33 most likely may get a little contrarian and do some some four two Eagles because I think that will be a lower own but I think I'm focusing on those three just because I'm not playing as much. Total volume.

[Si Najad]

Yeah, I I like the 42 builds quite a bit on the, on the Eagles. I mean what's interesting is Mike with the Eagles it's pretty condensed, right? And with Kansas City you're having to take a few more chances. So are do you in showdowns do you. Are you more inclined to go to that condensed target show or because it's showdown you're more inclined to actually kind of go against the grain and go with some guys that people just aren't really playing as much because they don't know what the volume is going to be.

[Mike McClure]

It really does depend on the slate for me. See, pricing typically dictates everything. For me they're really not going to be a a blanket approach. But I will say I am more likely to, you know, in those Eagles heavy lineups it is likely to be some of the the big guns there. So like I've got a couple looks here with Jalen hurts captain where I've actually triple stacked it. AJ Brown, Devonte Smith and Goddard and no Saquon essentially just building for that scen Kansas City is somehow able to stack the box successfully and have a little success offensively putting Hertz in that position where he's got a throw and obviously use his legs where he ultimately does still outscore Patrick Mahomes.

[Si Najad]

So that's interesting because I think some people will think especially new showdown players will Think that's a little counterintuitive in the sense that they're thinking, all right, well all these Eagles are going to score that me, that must mean the Kansas City Chiefs are going to score a ton. Don't I need Kansas City Chiefs there? So what's your reaction to that?

[Mike McClure]

You'll definitely have two Kansas City Chiefs, you know, as the other two spots in your roster as far as where you go with them, I think there are a number of options. Again, keep in mind you can play kickers. We have absolutely perfect conditions in a dome. We've got great range from Harrison, Bucker and Kansas City. While they've been a good football team overall, analytically they're not always super sharp there. They will kick the long field goal at times and put points on the board. So definitely something to note in showdown that that could be the build you're looking at.

[Si Najad]

All right. I'm looking at ownership. Again, ownership can vary, especially with. With what do we have four days to go, three and a half days to go for the Super Bowl. It's looking like Meg Patrick, Mahomes, Saquon, Barkley, Jalen hurts all over 50. Xavier, were they kind of trending to that 50 range? Are there any lower own plays and lower owned and showdown? I mean I'm really talking like 40 or lower. Although you can go super contrarian if you like. Are there any lower owned plays that you're finding? Like, hey, I'm just gonna end up playing this guy. Like for example, Kareem Hunt's only 26, Hollywood Brown is 35. We could go to the kickers and, and players like that. Juju15, Pacheco, Noah Gray, all sub 15P rine11. Any of those players jumping out to you to kind of help make your lineup? Because you are probably going to need some low cost options as well.

[Meg Shoup]

Yeah, both from low cost and low ownership. I like a lot of those options. I'm with Mike. I don't. I'm not in on the Kansas City running game. So I'm not, I'm not really, you know, targeting Hunt or Pacheco, so those are out for me. But I do have interest. Juju Smith Schuster. I got, you know what two big catches last game could absolutely see. He. I think he's running the third most routes. Low ownership there. No. Or Noah Gray did not, you know, did not run as many routes. But the way the Eagles play defense and cover four, cover six per fantasy points, this is kind of where Noah Gray can excel. So Andy Reid's a Very smart coach. I think maybe that we'd see a little more 12 personnel and we get a little more no gray routes. If so, you're getting super low price, super low ownership and then no gray. I don't even mind doing Kelsey and Noah Gray. How many people are going to do that? You know, stuff like that is, you know, two running backs from the same team, two tight ends from the same team. Stuff like that is unique. So Noah Gray, Juju or to my lower and then I'll just throw out. Goddard is like I think 35%. So I definitely like Goddard as well.

[Si Najad]

Mike, I know in the prop market you were looking earlier in the week or Last Week at DeAndre Hopkins. Is he a guy you're willing to put into your lineup? I'm looking at his price. It's 4400, which frankly is a little bit more expensive than I would have anticipated. But he's super low owned, which, which makes sense. Any thoughts on D Hop or any of those other low cost options?

[Mike McClure]

Yeah, I like D Hop. I'm way more likely to play him than say someone like isaiah Pacheco at 5200. I believe he is. And the reason for that is, yes, the target volume is falling off a cliff for Hopkins. However, he is still on the field in the most valuable area and that is the red zone. So I, I think that that is why it's appealing to play someone like Hopkins. You can get there on one reception. If it's a four yard touchdown at $4,400, that's probably going to work in this game that we're talking about. So I'm very interested in him. No interest in someone like Isaiah Pacheco, frankly. And that's kind of the situation I wanted to look at a little bit. When I talk about kickers, Harrison Bucker at 5K or Isaiah Pacheco at 5200, I think that's an absolute no brainer. It's definitely Harrison Bucker. But I think the interesting question is Harrison Bucker versus Kareem Hunt. You know, obviously has that range of outcome with, with, with scoring rushing touchdowns. But you look up and down a game log like Hunt. For someone like Hunt, he scored a touchdown in four straight games. This is the most difficult matchup out there. Even while scoring touchdowns, he scored eight fantasy points, 11.6. Like Bucker puts up 11 fantasy points pretty frequently. So if Hunt doesn't land in the end zone, he's essentially drawing dead. And even if he does land in the end zone, I think Bucker's gonna match him here.

[Si Najad]

Yeah. As much as I, I kind of forwarded the idea of a Kareem Hunt captain, like I gotta be honest, I think the Kansas City running game is going to be pretty bad. And Kareem Hunt's rushing yards total as of Yesterday was around 44. 44 and a half. I actually like the under Pacheco's way under that. So again, if you think those touchdowns are going to go to potentially a Xavier worthy with a pop pass or you know, some sort of gimmicky play or Travis Kelsey or Noah Gray. But I, I love the Harrison but ball as well, Mike. I think that makes a ton of sense. And people very shy to play kickers, especially when they see a point total that you know is, is close to 50. Let's talk about Dallas Goddard real quick. Greg Goose, Hayes. Meg says speaking of Dallas, do you think he gets his over 52 and a half? It's pretty high. Your thoughts on Dallas got it both with that prop and in dfs?

[Meg Shoup]

Yeah, I know it's kind of a popular pick, but I do really like it. He's had a very strong playoff run. We know you can attack the Chiefs in the middle, you know, tight ends versus Chiefs. I've done it all season. I'm not going to stop now. So yes, I do like Dallas Goddard in the prop market and I do like him in dfs.

[Si Najad]

Mike, any comments on Goddard and is there anybody else from a prop standpoint that you were staring down over the last week and a half that is also going to be in your DFS lineups?

[Mike McClure]

Yeah, look, Goddard is definitely very firmly in play. Like he, he's, you know, the question and obviously what really is going to separate, you know, who wins and who doesn't here is basically, you know, getting the question, the answer to that question. Right. And it's either it's going to be, in my opinion, it's going to be Dallas Goddard or A.J. brown. It's gonna be one of those two players that really exceeds their, their prop line. For Philly, I, I'm very confident it's gonna be one of those two players that, that does it. I'm gonna be playing both. But Goddard fits. He's too cheap for the role that he has right now. So I, I like him a lot. Haven't bet his overs in a player prop market or anything like that, but mostly because I'm going to get all that exposure here in dfs. Now I would say that if you want to be a little more contrarian I think the most interesting pivot you can make in your lineup would be just manually swapping. I know the correlation doesn't line up at all, but manually swapping Hollywood Brown for Dallas Goddard. Hollywood Brown's a little cheaper. He certainly has the upside to exceed his point total there, but no one is projecting that like, not even close. So I that's one that I will be making.

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[Si Najad]

Yeah, that's interesting. I mean, you know, Hollywood Brown can certainly get loose anywhere. Meg, I have the part of the reason I love Xavier Worthy and I mentioned it earlier and why he's going to be in the captain spot. But also, you know, I'm only going to make a handful of hands showdown lineups, but he'll be in the the flex spot as well. I just think he can do so much near the line of scrimmage which, which again with this secondary that's very good for The Eagles, you don't have to worry about coverage when you're getting the ball a second after the snap. Right? And that's what the Xavier Worthy experience has been. And you know, you kind of wait and see what he can do with it after the snap with blocks being set up and using his speed and things of that nature. Is Xavier Worthy a guy that you're definitely going to have in your lineups? Are you willing to fade him?

[Meg Shoup]

No, I really like. I mean Worthy and Kelsey are the high priced Chiefs that I'm prioritizing. And then I love Mike's talk discussion about Becker because I think Becker can outscore a lot of those guys in that range or slightly above or below him. So. And then it's Butler and then the Chief. The cheap Chiefs. That's hard to say that I like are Noah Gray and Juju the best, but I would be willing to take shots on Hollywood Brown and Hopkins as well. But no up top for the Chiefs it's Kelsey and it's Worthy. For me. They're, they're who's soaking up the targets and I think Mahomes is gonna have to throw a lot in this game.

[Si Najad]

I think that's what we should do next. I like how you frame that, Meg. So let's do this because we're only going to go like 30 minutes. We're already 22 in. Let's talk about our kind of some of our, of our favorite players and what I mean by that is players we're actually going to play in our lineups for each team. So Meg, you just framed the Kansas City Chiefs. It sounds like Worthy and Kelsey, you know, maybe some homes there too. But, but Kerr, those are three players you really want to play. So let's stick with Kansas City. Mike, maybe you know, two, three, four players that you know you're going to play in a lot of your showdown lineups. On the Kansas City side, yeah, it'll.

[Mike McClure]

Be Worthy, but Kerr and Hollywood Brown will be probably the most prominent. I'll certainly have some Kelsey builds and be sprinkling in there, but for me I'm going to be focused. Travis Kelsey is clearly going to be a focus. He does have a great matchup, as good as it can possibly get really against this Eagles team. But for me, I like the speedsters, I like the quick timing routes which we've seen and stuff around the line of scrimmage to Worthy and Brown and I like Harrison Bucker. I think that he's really strong in a lot of scenarios. So if Philly plays really well defensively. Where they're going to tighten up is going to be in that red zone. Kansas City is going to move the ball between the 20s. I think we have very little doubt about that. It's just going to come down to red zone efficiency. So in the lower scoring game, I think Bucker's great and in a shootout, I think Bucker's great as well because you're likely getting three touchdowns and at least a field goal which is not going to kill you again that, that 5,5k price tag scoring seven points, I would. You know, Pacheco's not scoring seven. Hunt's only scoring seven with a touchdown. And the scenario where Hunt scores 20 is just so unlikely here for me, so worthy. But Kerr and Hollywood Brown, by far the, the biggest Chiefs exposures for me.

[Si Najad]

Okay, so let's go to biggest Eagles exposures. Meg, who do you got?

[Meg Shoup]

Well, up top, I, I said it that they'll be my two main captain plays, it's Saquon and Hertz. And then in the middle, there's actually not going to really be cheap plays for the Eagles because just as you can tell, the way I'm kind of talking through some of the cheaper Chiefs plays that I'm playing, but it's those two guys up top. I think they could again soak up a lot of the touchdown equity for the Eagles and it's Goddard. And so I, I may sprinkle in, you know, a little bit of one with one with A.J. brown, one with Devonta Smith replacing Goddard or something along those lines. But I, I don't think I'm going to get to a lot of other Eagles and they're just more condensed, obviously, so. And then their kickers had issues. So if I'm going to kickers, it's going to be Bucker over Elliott. I'm not saying Elliott couldn't outscore Bucker, but to me, I'm gonna, with the volume align ups I'm playing, I'm gonna lean into the better kicker. So, yeah, I, I really don't have a ton of other Eagles exposure. The only caveat I'll say is if for some reason, if Gainwell were to get ruled out, I think he's still going through concussion protocol. Maybe I'd take like a cheap swing on Will Shipley or something like that. Yeah, that would be only, only if Gainwell's ruled out.

[Si Najad]

Yeah, I'm looking at the cheap swings and certainly if he's not playing, that would make sense. Grant Calcatera is a Thousand. You know, again, I'm Samaj P. Ryan, 1200 those are some of the cheaper players. Juju Smith Schuster, 2000 and we know on a couple of plays Juju can just find himself in space. So I think those are some interesting options. My favorite Eagles mike are probably. So I'm gonna make a statement and then I'm going to ask you a question off of that statement. Then I want to get your, your, maybe your top three or four on the Eagle side. For me, it's probably AJ Brown, Jalen Hurts and Dallas Goddard. That's a statement that doesn't have Saquon Barkley in it. So my question for you on the showdown slate, especially for those that are new to showdown, but I mean, really, I'm, I'd like to get your answer too. Personally. Saquon Barkley is, you know, I think a lot of people on a lot of slates would be like, oh, that's a lock button. You got to have Saquon Barkley in there. Is that really the case on a showdown slate?

[Mike McClure]

It's not the case on a showdown slate. Now, the computer still wants to play a lot of them, but I'm definitely prioritizing both Mahomes and Hertz over Saquon for sure. Look, we know the upside that Jalen Hurts has in the running game. I think he's going to be forced to throw the ball a lot. And then Kansas City, they have no running game. They're not taking the ball out of my home's hands. So it's either going to be my home scoring touchdowns in some capacity or it's going to be a ton of Harrison Bucker field goals. Right. So I, I think that I agree with you. It's. For me, it's A.J. brown and Jalen Hurts. I'll have the most hurts just because of the position he plays and, you know, the floor. But I love A.J. brown. I think he's the best play from a skill position standpoint on the Eagles in this game. Look, I, I think that Devonte Smith, as much as I love him, I am actually worried about the hamstring, the way he plays, how hard he's going to be trying to play. It's obviously it's a Super Bowl. A hamstring injury is not something that I want to play with on a receiver like that. So I, I think there's definitely a scenario that he doesn't finish the game. Game. I know it's not something you're planning on necessarily, but I, I think that A.J. brown has got the most upside here.

[Si Najad]

All right, so another, another follow up question there. First of all, I'd like if you have a third Eagle that is fitting into builds, let me know. But is a 2, 4 build with Hertz and AJ Brown and the other four being Kansas City Chiefs, is that in play for you?

[Mike McClure]

Definitely, definitely have a lot, a lot of that.

[Si Najad]

Okay. And is there another Eagle that's kind of making their way into your optimal builds?

[Mike McClure]

Dallas Goddard still is popping up a little bit there and then the other one that I, I think is still sneaky is the Eagles defense. I just think there's a, a spot where it could be a lower scoring game. They're 200 more than Kansas City's defense and I would still be fine playing receivers and everything against that, that defense.

[Si Najad]

All right. And maybe we'll close. If you have any questions in the chat, let us know. Maybe we'll close with this. What say? I guess what would be your favorite, Meg, I'll start with you. Your favorite contrarian game script. Your favorite game script where you just don't think a lot of people are going to build around this and you could just get different that way.

[Meg Shoup]

I think my contrarian game script would be Eagles win by a touchdown or more.

[Si Najad]

Yeah.

[Meg Shoup]

And in that case it would at least be four, two Eagles. So I think that would be it. Which Chiefs I'd bring it back with. Again, you have a lot of options. I'd have to ask Mike on that one. I don't know if that would make sense for Bucker. Does it? Is it then they're having to go for fourth downs and you're not getting Bucker or does that make more sense that no, he's just kicking him off field goals and that's why they, they're falling behind a little more and that's why, you know, some of the other skill position players aren't hitting the lineup. Do you have a take on that, Mike?

[Mike McClure]

Yeah, I do. I think Bucker would still be included there.

[Meg Shoup]

I thought so.

[Mike McClure]

I think you kind of started alluding to it. I think that scenario, how that was one plays out is, you know, early in the game, first quarter, Kansas City settles for that 50 yard field goal. Right. It puts the three points on the board, which is more than three points in terms of fantasy points with Harrison, bucker for a 50 yard field goal and then they maybe get another touchdown. You put them at six there and that's the scenario that I could see getting there because if they are trailing by that amount, it means that Kareem Hunt has not scored already, so you're removing, you know, those running back plays. Buckers again, it's a 50 yard field goal is essentially a Russ rushing. A rushing touchdown.

[Meg Shoup]

Yeah.

[Mike McClure]

Which is insane, but it is. So, yeah, I think the Bucker's still going to be included in that build.

[Si Najad]

In that build. Would you be more inclined, Mike, to go 33 or 4?

[Jimmy Conrad]

2?

[Mike McClure]

Probably 3. 3 only because the Eagles are still very concentrated. So I would probably pick Hertz and two skill position players and, you know, try to nail down where those touchdowns are going and then just looking for cheaper volume on the other side. So that, that's personally how I would do it.

[Si Najad]

Yeah, but go and a couple of pass catchers. In that case, it sounds like. Mike, is there a contrarian build that maybe we haven't discussed that you would consider building around?

[Mike McClure]

Yeah, I think that the, the double kicker could be interesting. Double kicker defense. Look, the last time these teams met, we saw over 60 points. The total in this game is essentially 50. The Eagles defense is very good and they run the football a lot. One thing Kansas City's done throughout this little dynasty run has been able to possess the football. Right. You've seen time and time again they take half a quarter off the clock. If that Eagles defense is stout and we land in field goals. Like there is a scenario here where the final score of this game is 20 to 17. And if that happens, both kickers are involved. The defenses have likely done enough that if it comes down to like a. On the Eagle side, one or both of the touchdowns become Jalen Hurts rushing touchdowns. Saquon's not getting there. The receivers are probably not getting there. I think that that is a scenario not many people are building for. And I actually think despite seeing 60 plus points and a very real chance of seeing that again, I, I think there is a scenario that we get to halftime and the score at halftime is seven to three.

[Si Najad]

Yeah, makes sense. I mean, I hope that's the case because I'm on the first half under. I put that on Sports Line over a week ago. All right. I, I think, listen, this show was more about like, obviously we talked about plays, we talked about favorite plays, but I think it was really important to talk about especially when it comes to showdown, like how we think about these builds and why we're fitting certain players in with others. I think that especially when it comes to showdown, which I know, know is intimidating to me and intimidating to a lot of people out there, I think knowing what the line of thinking is and what the logic is is more important than the plays themselves. I guess we ought to close the show. This is kind of sad. I mean closing 2025. So I'll Meg, I'm going to start with you. Any final thoughts as we head into officially as we head into Best ball season. Right. Any final thoughts?

[Meg Shoup]

I guess that does speak to me. Yes. First of all, always have fun doing the show every Thursday with with you too and nada. So love that. Hope we can run it back next year. Had a blast as always. The season went way too fast by the way. I feel like this was the fastest season ever. So yes, I'm sad, I'm coping and I'm already in the best ball street. So join me in the best ball streets. You'll see me on Underdog Fantasy.

[Si Najad]

You know why it went fast is because our team, the Commanders, wasn't getting dragged through the mud every week like it happened for 30 years in a row.

[Meg Shoup]

That's probably it.

[Si Najad]

Kansas City's never dragged through the mud, Mike. I imagine these seasons fly by for you. Anyway, any final thoughts as we head into Best Ball Season?

[Mike McClure]

Yeah, flying by. Having fun though. Obviously. Go Chiefs in the Super Bowl. And the other thing I would say is if you want to continue to play DFS and you're watching the show. I know many of you have been with us for years but if you are new and this was your first season, I highly recommend following us over into the DFS PGA streets because there's a lot you can learn from a sport like golf that doesn't require the investment and the time commitment that grinding NBA, DFS or MLB every single day. So the fact that it's weekly just like the NFL, I would highly recommend checking us out there. I know SIA and I obviously do a lot of DFS pga so definitely check that out and we'll be back here grinding football again before you know it.

[Si Najad]

Yeah, we put out a lot of PGA on the early edge as well. And I'll just tell everybody there's an announcement coming within the next couple of weeks that very much pertains to golf betting and golf dfs that, that I think everybody's going to want to like dial in on. So I think that's good advice about PGADFs. It's sort of a different analysis but it's also very low in like you can, you can do a three dollar line if it lasts four days. Like it is a fun sweat. It's different from NFL because it's a four day tournament. So I think that's some really good and fun advice there, ladies and gentlemen. That'll wrap the 2025 season, we hope. Or 2024. 2025 season. Well, we'll be back soon enough to talk this upcoming season, but thanks for joining us for every single show. Really appreciate everybody. I saw some recent reviews which were really nice. If you want to review our podcast on Apple or Spotify, please go do it. But that's it for now. On behalf of not on the ones and twos and threes and fours. And on behalf of Meg Shop and Mike McClure, my name is Siennajad. Have a great super bowl weekend, everybody. This is fantasy football. Today, DFS Paramount podcasts School Spirits is the phenomenon that gripped audiences everywhere.

[Meg Shoup]

Where is my body?

[Si Najad]

And in the all new season on Paramount.

[Meg Shoup]

Plus the car you saw in the world, it's isn't me.

[Si Najad]

Get the answers. Wait, does that mean that you're not dead? We are running out of time everyone's been dying for. You have no idea what I'm capable of.

[Mike McClure]

What other secrets are you keeping?

[Si Najad]

Stream the new season of School Spirits now on Paramount. Plus.