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Super Bowl 59 Preview & Dynasty Debates: Chiefs vs Eagles (Fantasy Football Dynasty Podcast 2/7)
00:53:23
Heath and Sam break down Super Bowl 59 from a dynasty perspective, offering in-depth debates, player rankings, and strategic insights.
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- [00:00]
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- [02:04]
Keith Cummings
Welcome to Fantasy Football Today Dynasty. I am your host, Keith Cummings, joined today by Sam Wagman. And we have a Super bowl spectacular for you. Sam is an Eagles fan and so he probably hates my guts right now, but like me, he's feeling the stress of how in the world do we have to wait two weeks between championship games and the Super Bowl? This has been the longest two weeks ever. Sam, welcome back Tell everybody where they can find your work.
- [02:34]
Sam Wagman
Well, you guys can find me on Twitter @Swagman95 and then over at football guys, you know, doing plenty of fantasy football and betting stuff over there. But yeah, it has been a very long couple weeks. I'm happy. It's Friday. I'm happy. You know, now we get, you know, one, one and a half more days and then we have the super bowl incoming Sunday night. Because I, I know you as a chief stand probably feel no stress at all whatsoever given the fact that you have been, you know, 20 over the past two years. But I, I definitely have a little bit of stress right now.
- [03:11]
Keith Cummings
Yeah, no, I think there's, there's definitely stress because this is like nobody's done this before. They go get a, go get a three piece and I like, I've also felt a little bit and I don't know if you get this. It feels like people are trying to discount the greatness of these two teams. Like the Chiefs aren't really as good as their record. Everybody's always trying to discount Jalen hurts accomplishments and not viewing him as good as he's been. Nick Sirianni, people wanted to fire him earlier this year. I, I was just looking at this and I sent a tweet out and I think it's got to be correct. 34 combined wins in the regular season and playoffs for these two teams. One way or another, it's going to be 35 on Sunday night. That has to be a record. This is a matchup of two teams that have lost a combined five games. And at least one of those games they didn't care if they lost.
- [04:05]
Sam Wagman
And I think this is one of those games, right? Almost. Yeah. And I almost think this is a better matchup than what we had in 2022 as well, you know, given how good these two teams were in those in that season. So I'm, I'm just hoping for a great matchup between the, between these two teams once again. You know, I begrudgingly have respected the Chiefs as they've gone on this run, even though through, through this season they have looked at, you know, the most vulnerable they have in the past couple of seasons for sure. And you know, kind of that's probably due to a little bit of Mahomes kind of just not having all the magic. And I feel like the Chiefs have kind of just become the Lakers of the NFL kind of just sleepwalking through and just trying to get to the playoffs and the warriors and you know, those teams that have kind of just slept walk through the regular seasons and just turned it up when they need to. And you know, we see that of these great teams and these dynasties, they do what they need to do to get to the big show and then once they get to the big show, they really turn it up. So we've definitely seen that from the Chiefs these playoffs. I'm just hoping the Eagles match them.
- [05:20]
Keith Cummings
So we're not going to talk about the super bowl the entire show. We are going to a little bit more here in just a second. But I think the other thing that I noticed as we were getting ready for this is these two teams are very interesting for Dynasty purposes. Mahomes and Jalen Hurts, two of the top quarterbacks in Dynasty. Saquon Barkley, maybe the number one running back going into next year. But also at that age where we have concerns, the Chiefs wide receivers of Xavier Worthy and Rushy Rice. And which one of those do you prefer? Travis kelsey's potential retirement? A.J. brown. Like there's a lot of pieces here. So we are going to talk about those guys. We are going to rank the Chiefs and Eagles players in Dynasty and of course break down the most important assets on each team. But we always start with three questions for our guest. Just put you on the spot, Sam, right at the top. Who wins the super bowl and why?
- [06:12]
Sam Wagman
Well, you know, obviously it'll sound biased, but I do think the Eagles win the Super Bowl, I think they're apart from just being the better team on paper because when it, when it comes down to it, the defense, the Eagles have been a top three, you know, top three to five defense in the league. The offense, the Eagles have been almost drastically more efficient when it comes to scoring points than the Chiefs have been all season. Everything points to the Eagles on paper and obviously Patrick Mahomes is the great equalizer in that, you know, whatever, whatever any other team can do, Mahomes can match you or do better because he just, he gets it done whenever he has to. It's Tom Brady esque in that you could never count him out when you know, the game was within one score and he had the ball last and the Patriots were just going to drive down the field because that's what they did and that's what he did. And that's so far what we have seen from Patrick Mahomes. Whenever he needs to, he does deliver and that is the great equalizer. But the reason I think the Eagles will win this game is because we have heard quite a few times this week from Eagles personnel from Eagles affiliated media that everything the Eagles have done over the past two seasons has been to counteract the Chiefs loss in 2022 in the Super Bowl. Every single move they made on offense, on defense, coaching wise, everything has been made with the specific goal in mind that if they got the Chiefs in a rematch in the super bowl, that they were going to be ready and they were not going to make the same mistakes that they made the first time around. And because that game was so close and because the margin of barrier was so razor thin that it basically came down to a, you know, a Jalen Hurts freak fumble that almost will never happen. And the very controversial call on juju, Smith Schuster and James Bradbury. I don't remember that. No, no you don't. Okay.
- [08:12]
Keith Cummings
I don't remember it at all.
- [08:15]
Sam Wagman
Because it, because it was so such a margin or razor thin margin of error. I feel like if the, if the changes that the Eagles have made seemingly on purpose since that loss come through and they clean up, they clean up the game, there is not a scenario where I think the Eagles can feasibly lose this game if they play the way that they want to play.
- [08:40]
Keith Cummings
Love the confidence there. What is your, you mentioned it earlier. Like you, you do a lot more gambling content than I do. What's your favorite prop bet for this week? If you're, if you're okay with giving that out here, of course.
- [08:52]
Sam Wagman
So I took it earlier in the week. My favorite prop bet has been, honestly since the beginning of last week, Dallas Goddard. I took it at over 46 and a half receiving yards. It's now up to 50, 52 and a half. I still like it there because I took a receiving yards ladder on him all the way up to 80. I think Goddard will end up being one of the unsung heroes of this game just because he's not going to garner the attention that the other Eagles receiving threats and Saquon are going to garner from this Chief's defense. They've been awful at defending tight ends all season. They gave up 73 receiving yards per game to the position. They gave up 63 yards to Dalton Schultz in the first round of the playoffs. And Goddard has, to his own credit, been really, really good since he came back from injury at the end of the year. 85 yards, 56 yards, 47 yards, 55 yards again. So he's hit that 46 and a half yard prop every single time. So that's one of my favorite props. And then on the Chief side, I really like juju Smith, Schuster, like we said, he played a huge role in the 2022 Super Bowl. He had two catches for 60 yards against the Bills. He's that guy over the middle of the field. And if the Eagles have a weakness, it has been to defend the middle of the field because since Nakobe Dean went down, they're kind of without a coverage monster in their linebacking core. Zach Vaughn is great, but he's only one guy. Reed Blankenships looked a little bit slow at times. Warren Burks is, has been good in, you know, kind of relief coverage of Dean, but he's a backup. He's not going to be the one that you want defending the middle of the field. Kelsey and juju and all these kind of, you know, slot esque guys that the Chiefs have to just run up the middle of the field. And Patrick Mahomes has been the best quarterback against middle of the field open coverage. So all of those kind of just link towards, you know, a spot where the Chiefs are going to play their ad, their advantages as much as they can. And I think juju is going to be one of those advantages just like he was in the first Super Bowl.
- [10:51]
Keith Cummings
We'll have a little bit of fun with this last one. Where are you currently at on the Chiefs hatred scale and how much will that change this weekend if the Chiefs win the Super Bowl?
- [11:02]
Sam Wagman
I'm not as high as a lot of other people on the Chiefs, you know, hatred meter. I would probably say out of 10, I'm probably at a four and a half. Like I, I vacillate in between just boredom with the Chiefs being, you know, as good as they are and kind of just appreciating the greatness that we get to see. Like, I'm a football fan at my purest of pure. I'm a football fan. I appreciate watching good football. It's why I watch almost every single game no matter whether I have action or a fantasy matchup on it because I just enjoy the sport and I don't feel that way about any other sport except for golf. And that's, I could go off on a tangent about that, but I won't at this time because this is a Super bowl and Dynasty show and I just, I just love football. So, you know, I can, I can appreciate why people are sick of the Chiefs, especially the, you know, the extraneous circumstances surrounding them, the refs, Taylor Swift, all, all the other stuff that like surrounds them that isn't quite football. And to some degree I can understand and, and I do kind of feel similarly to that and that I'm a little bit sick of the conversation around that. But I appreciate the Chiefs and I appreciate good football. So you know, for that, for that measure, I, I can't hate the Chiefs. You know, I, I can't hate any team except the Cowboys just because I can appreciate good football and the Cowboys are not a good football team.
- [12:26]
Keith Cummings
Let's take a short break and then we'll get into the dynasty value of the Eagles and the Chiefs.
- [12:31]
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- [13:31]
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- [14:02]
Keith Cummings
Got that master's commercial in there just for Sam. He's excited about that. I didn't want to break this down, just kind of position. Let's start with the most important position in football. Not always the most important position in fantasy. But the quarterbacks. Patrick Mahomes. Really a down year from a fantasy perspective. Although we did average 24 fantasy points per game in the second half of the year so showed the life again as you said. It seemed like for three and a half quarters you, you're kind of bored with the Chiefs. It seems like Patrick Mahomes has been bored at times, but when he needed to go score a touchdown, he went and scored a touchdown. Jalen hurts. If you look at his fantasy production, it's a little bit skewed by the fact he had that partial game. He was, for the most of the year, the top five fantasy quarterback that he's been for the last three years. So when you look at Mahomes versus Herz in Dynasty, and Mahomes is two years older than Jalen Hurts, 29 and 27 going into next year, which one do you prefer?
- [14:59]
Sam Wagman
I think I have to prefer Jalen Hurts simply because, you know, we. We talk about Russian quarterbacks kind of going down a little bit earlier because, you know, it wears down their legs and all that. But Mahomes has had ankle injury after ankle injury after ankle injury as well, so we can't pretend that even though he doesn't run as much as Jalen, that he's not, you know, prone to these injuries, possibly shortening his career as well. And he doesn't. He doesn't have the same production on the ground that Jalen has. So from a Dynasty fantasy perspective, how could I not, you know, prefer Jalen Hurts at this point? Because it seems like the Chiefs are just content to moneyball their way through wide receivers and, you know, offensive personnel to the point where it's kind of just the onus is on Mahomes to do his superhero shtick, basically the same way that Tom Brady drags lacrosse players and, you know, scrappy, scrappy, you know, white gym rats, you know, to fantasy greatness and Super Bowls throughout his entire career. So I think we're destined to almost see Mahomes do kind of the same thing. And, and for that reason, Mahomes is a solid fantasy option, but he's not the top five option that he could possibly be at a ceiling. But I think Jalen hurts is because he's going to continue to have that high rushing ceiling the tush pushes there. He runs the ball nine to 10 times a game. He can. He can rack up 50 yards easily on the ground, and he's throwing the ball more, you know, in the. In this new system. And he has the wide receivers and the wide and the receiving talent to rack up these bigger numbers. So while I think that Mahomes is always going to be a guy that's like, inside the top 10, I don't know if he has any higher ceiling than maybe QB6 on any given year because of the fact that he just doesn't possess that 30 point ceiling that you get with the rushing quarterback. So I, I think for that reason I would rather still have Jalen hurts. The concussions slightly worry me as they should, you know, just for about any football player at this point. But we haven't seen Mahomes have the, you know, not and obviously knock on wood as I say this, but we haven't seen him have any of those leg or ankle issues really popping up consistently so far throughout his career.
- [17:21]
Keith Cummings
I I will say like first off, I think the answer to this question is probably do you play in a league that rewards four points or six points per pass touchdown? I have Mahomes at QB4 and Jalen Hurts at QB6 in Dynasty, but all of our rankings at CBS are based on 6 point per pass touchdown leagues. If it was a 4 point per pass touchdown league, I would prefer Hertz over Mahomes. The only other thing I'd push back on is I think we saw this through Tom Brady's career a a lull of a couple of years where the guy keeps winning but doesn't produce a lot of great fantasy production and then we, we get lulled into thinking oh, he doesn't really have the ability to go out and produce huge numbers. And then Brady throws for 4, 850 touchdowns after a couple of down years. So I, I don't really doubt if the Chiefs go through a stretch where maybe the defense gets banged up and the defense isn't very good to where my homes could still do that. But I do think that you'll probably have these years mixed in where he's a low end QB1, whereas Hertz probably doesn't have as long to be a a fantasy star, but he's going to be more consistently in the top five. And to that point I think both of these guys will be better in terms of fantasy points per game in 2025 than they were in 2024. Although you do have to worry a little bit with Jalen Hurts. Kellen Moore now the top candidate for the Saints. He maybe he will decide not to take that because it's an awful job and I don't know why anybody would. But if he leaves, it's yet another offensive coordinator change for Jalen Hurts and we have seen that negatively impact him like we did I think in the second half of last year at the running back position. I don't know that there is a more interesting question in fantasy football going into next year as how much or how do we react To Saquon and Derrick Henry and some of these other older running backs seemingly changing the math at running back. It used to be you got to 28 years old, man. We don't want that guy in Dynasty anymore. It used to be you had an old running back changing teams, man, that guy's going to take a step back. These guys just flipped that on their head completely. But I guess my question is, is Saquon so good this year that you just trust the other worldly talent, or do you trust the huge amount of historical data that suggests a step back? And not just because of his age, but also because of the history of guys who have touched the ball as much as he has this year and run for 2,000 yards? Those guys almost always take a step back.
- [19:54]
Sam Wagman
Yeah, I think we do have to worry about Saquon on some level. You know, I'm not gonna trot out the old. He had too many touches, so it's kind of a wash that he gets injured next year because God forbid, that would. That would be horrible. I do think there's something to say that Saquon did just about everything he could possibly do, short of breaking Eric Dickerson's record, which he probably breaks if he plays in week 18. Right. For that reason and that reason alone, I do believe that the Eagles will bring in another type of back to replace him. You know, if Kenny Gainwell were to depart, if Will Shipley weren't to be up to their standards, I think the Eagles are perfectly happy to either draft the back or bring in, you know, a hammer type of back. Someone that can take a lot of those short yardage plays for Saquon, because we've seen Saquon kind of just say, nah, I'm good. I, I don't need to get every, you know, every spare yard that I can get. Let the other guys get it. Let me, you know, catch my breath here. Saquon, I think, is focused on longevity. And I. I think that now that he's in a space where he can almost. I think he can do almost whatever he want once at this point. And he will be, you know, a guy that is relied upon by. By the staff. And he will. He will be that kind of guy that doesn't need to play every single down, but he's going to make himself known in, in every game because he has the ability to break off these crazy 65 yard touchdown, you know, just scampers at any given notice. And because of that, I think that we just see him take a little bit of a step back more than he did. More, much more than he did this year. I think we see a lot more breaks from him because the Eagles will want to keep him as healthy and fresh as possible. They are in the prime of a Super bowl window right now. I think this year is probably, is, is going to be probably their best shot, but next year they're going to have a great shot as well. You know, this team is young, this team, it has every piece that they need to be locked up. They're locked up. So I think for the next one to two to three years, this is a team in the prime of a Super bowl window and I think Saquon knows that. So he's not going to be scampering for any record. The Eagles will know that. Sirianni will know that. So I think what they do is they definitely try to take a step back with Saquon and I think it's going to be smart for them to do that. And I, I don't know if Saquon is going to be close to the RB one next year. I do think that. Let's go ahead.
- [22:46]
Keith Cummings
No, I, I want to get over to the other side because Isaiah Pacheco was, was close to A consensus top 12 running back at this time last year because of finally getting the touchdowns and then had the broken leg. And I was really concerned about him looking anything like himself for the remainder this year. He has not looked anything like himself. The 29 year old Kareem Hunt is currently a better running back and we'll talk about Hunt in just a moment if he has any dynasty value. But I wonder if you think that Pacheco has just completely lost his dynasty value or are you expecting that he gets a full off season, he comes back next year and is pretty much the guy he was before.
- [23:27]
Sam Wagman
If we're talking about the top 12 dynasty value, I don't think he ever should have been there to begin with. So no, I don't think he ever comes back to that. I've never been sold on, you know, the Isaiah Pacheco hype train. You know, I, I saw him as, as a nice gimmick, as a nice story, you know, cool that he runs so hard and you know, it just invokes that, that viral meme that, that went everywhere. You know, you hand the ball off to Isaiah Pacheco and he's just running, running full speed and just thundering down the field. But that only work, that only works so long until people kind of get that that's that's the gimmick with him. And all of a sudden they're loading the box and he can't really do anything against loaded boxes. So we, we saw that a lot this year. But I do think that coming back from, you know, breaking your ankle is a serious thing that, that takes time to fully recover from. And I think that he, he was brought. He might have come back a little bit too early.
- [24:25]
Keith Cummings
Yeah.
- [24:26]
Sam Wagman
So I will be interested to see next year with a full off season of rehab, you know, God willing, nothing happens to him in the Super Bowl. I will be really interested to see how he looks in the training camp and OTAs and everything like that. You know, to see if he can be one of those guys that we draft in like the eighth or ninth round, kind of that RB dead zone type. I think that's where he will fall if he doesn't look like he's completely lost his edge in the Super Bowl. But I'll be interested to see what happens there. So I'm somewhere in the middle.
- [24:59]
Keith Cummings
I.
- [24:59]
Sam Wagman
Somewhere in the middle, in between lost everything and is still that top down.
- [25:04]
Keith Cummings
I would definitely take the under on his yards in the super bowl and I think I'd take the over on what somebody wanted to set it on next year. He's currently my RB20 in Dynasty. I haven't added the rookies yet. I anticipate there are at least four rookies that are going to come in ahead of Isaiah Pacheco. So now maybe he's RV24 and if one of those four rookies are on the Chiefs, he might not be a top 40 guy. I think the Chiefs will tell us with their off season moves. And then the other question is, do they just decide to bring back Kareem Hunt? Because he's pretty much done exactly what they've asked him to do. Now again, just another guy that just goes forward. He's not really making anybody miss. But people have to respect the Chiefs passing game. They have to respect Patrick Mahomes. And Hunt's still very good at going, you need three yards, he'll go get you three yards. If you need five, he might get you three yards. Do you think that Kareem Hunt or Will Shipley matter in Dynasty or is it just whether or not the Chiefs bring Hunt back?
- [26:01]
Sam Wagman
I think Will Shipley will totally matter in Dynasty and I'll get the Kareem Hunt. But Shipley plays a key role in special teams, so he's, he's been involved with the Eagles at times and he's shown kind of flashes of the guy that people thought he could be two years ago when he was a superstar as a freshman at Clemson. So I, I think there's something to see with Shipley. I was a really big Shipley fan coming out of the draft last year. I think that he is currently the favorite to be the RB2 next year for the Eagles, depending on what they do with Kenny Gainwell.
- [26:38]
Keith Cummings
Let's, let's put Shipley in context because people are going to have to make decisions heading up to April about roster cuts and to make room for draft picks. So if your choice is hold Will Shipley or make a rookie fourth round pick, you're holding Will Shipley.
- [26:55]
Sam Wagman
I'm holding Will Shipley.
- [26:57]
Keith Cummings
Hold Will Shipley or make a rookie third round pick.
- [27:01]
Sam Wagman
It depends who's on the board there because this class is starting to get a little bit deeper for me, but I'm still gonna lean towards Will Shipley.
- [27:10]
Keith Cummings
A tiny bit and then definitely a second round pick over Shipley.
- [27:14]
Sam Wagman
Correct.
- [27:14]
Keith Cummings
Okay, that's. No, I think that's, that's a good way to put it in context. And I think like, we gotta remember Kareem Hunt did not have a team at the beginning of the year. So if, if we find out before the NFL draft that the Chiefs have brought him back and they're just going to go with Pacheco and Hunt going into next year, then Hunt's going to be needs to be rostered. If Kareem Hunt is on the NFL waiver wire after we get through free agency and it's looking like teams are going to let him sit out training camp and choose a team after somebody gets hurt, then he's probably going to be on dynasty waiver wires as well. There is so much talent between these two teams at the wide receiver position. One of the most interesting one though, for Dynasty purposes, is not going to be playing Rushy Rice, dealing with both his recovery from a PCL injury and a potential suspension in the 2025 season. And I think that makes him really difficult to rank because if you just look at what Rice did in the second half and playoffs of last year and look at what Rice did when he was healthy earlier this year, like he looked like a top 10 dynasty wide receiver, no doubt about it. But we don't know how he's going to recover from this knee injury. We don't know how many games he's going to play next year. And Xavier Worthy has emerged at the end of this year much in the same way Rice did at the end of last year. So are you, I guess, where. What are your views on where Rice should be ranked and are you more worried about the suspension or the knee?
- [28:39]
Sam Wagman
So I was really coming around on Rashi Rice right around the time of the injury. Yeah, the first month of the season. I mean, he looked terrific and I. I did not have him anywhere. So I will say that I'm, you know, happy that I didn't have him anywhere because, you know, kind of no, no harm, no foul, no skin off my back type of thing, but he looked terrific and I think it carries over. I don't, you know, I'm not an injury expert, so I'm not. I'm not going to speculate. I can't speculate. But, you know, from what, you know, what I've talked to, you know, with different injury experts around the space, it. It seems like this was the best case scenario that we could have gotten with Rice. So. And I think that he's going to step in. Guys like Juju Smith, Schuster and DeAndre Hopkins and maybe even Hollywood Brown, all these guys might not be on the Chiefs next year.
- [29:28]
Keith Cummings
Probably will not.
- [29:29]
Sam Wagman
And I think, yeah. So it would make perfect sense for Rashi Rice and Xavier Worthy to be the future, you know, wide receiver 1 and wide receiver 2 or wide receiver 1A and wide receiver 1B type style for. For the Chiefs for the next several years. And they both looked really good at what they've been able to do in time. So I would be really confident, depending on Rice, I will say the. The suspension, you know, that is incoming and we've kind of been almost assured that there will be some sort of suspension that comes of this. I would imagine it's in the four to six game range for him, you know, from talking to some legal guys around the space as well. So it'll be very interesting to see from a Dynasty perspective. I think if you pay. If you pay a late first for Rashi Rice, I think it could look like a really smart move, you know, at some point, you know, midway through next year, down the stretch in your fantasy playoffs, when you have Rashi Rice and the person that's sold them to you for late versus kind of like, why don't you do that? Just because they panicked on Rashi Rice.
- [30:33]
Keith Cummings
Rice is currently my wide receiver 22 in Dynasty. There are two wide receivers in this game, actually make it three that I have ranked higher than him in Dynasty. That tells you how much talent there is. I think A.J. brown's at an interesting point in his career. Because he's certainly not an old wide receiver right in the middle of his prime. At the same time, he is going to turn 28 before he plays another regular season game. So if you're someone who's moving into a rebuilding window, he might be someone that you're interested in moving off of. Would you, if you had A.J. brown and it was time to rebuild, accept a trade of Xavier Worthy for AJ Brown?
- [31:14]
Sam Wagman
No, I would not. And the reason I would not is because I think AJ Brown is extremely unique in what he offers you. He offers you the ability to be a downfield wide receiver. He offers you the ability to be a short to intermediate wide receiver. But most of all he offers the ability for yards after the catch and just is true as shown that he can rank at the top of the NFL in yards per route run and, and just be kind of that do everything wide receiver, one that we have seen is so exceedingly rare in this league, you know, over the past several years. I just don't think that there's a reason to get rid of him simply because he had a few down weeks at the end of the season while he's been nursing a knee injury for the past, you know, month or month or month plus. So I, I just, I don't see a reason to panic over it. Yes, I love Worthy, but we haven't seen that Worthy can be that do everything, handle a high volume of, you know, targets wide receiver, you know, over the course of a full season yet. We haven't seen, you know, what he'll look like when he's kind of not that preferred option. You know, what happens when Rashi Rice comes back? What happens to Xavier Worthy? Where does he play? Does he play on the outside exclusively? Because Rice looked really good in the slot as kind of like that power slot type of player. And that's kind of where, you know, Xavier Worthy has been playing as kind of that guy they'll put in screens and they'll line him up every so often on the outside, but he's been doing a lot of damage from the slot. So I, I do kind of wonder what Rice or what Worthy's role is going to look like in 2025. But I know what A.J. brown's role is going to look like. It is the wide receiver one for this football team. He is the guy they look to when they need to make a big play. It's him.
- [33:01]
Keith Cummings
So. So I guess, and this is more of a philosophical question, but for just for dynasty purposes, if you have like, if you Have a wide receiver like AJ Brown and you don't have a contending roster. You think that A.J. brown's still going to be a number one wide receiver in two or three years when you are contending or you're just. That's, that's where. And that doesn't mean that like maybe you just are saying I'd have to get a young wide receiver who's better than Worthy. Would you, would you accept a Marvin Harrison in that situation? Would you accept a lad monkey?
- [33:35]
Sam Wagman
Would.
- [33:35]
Keith Cummings
Would you accept a Brian Thomas Jr. I think we'd all say yes to that one.
- [33:38]
Sam Wagman
Probably yes. Yeah.
- [33:40]
Keith Cummings
Or. Or are we like Xavier Worthy and a second or Xavier Worthy and it's gonna take a first to get there. Like, I, I think it's just, that's what I think about as these people who have Brown and maybe like the rest of the team got old and it's, it's time to go through the rebuild process. Do you hold a guy at his age through maybe a two year rebuild?
- [34:01]
Sam Wagman
Yeah, I mean, at that point, you know, the hypothetical of, you know, you know, how long are you in a rebuild, you know, what is the team around you? I think that comes into play pretty heavily with a guy like A.J. brown. You know, can you afford to move off them or do you need an extra piece? I think I would need an extra piece in Xavier Worthy trade. Whether that is a high second, a late first one of those. I don't know if anybody would do that. You know, I, I think that's kind of my Eagles and AJ Brown bias kind of creeping into the equation, which, you know, how can you, how can you blame me for kind of having that, you know, believing in, in the guy that has looked so good at times. But everyone is going to hold the, the Eagles passing offense against you right in. In negotiations.
- [34:48]
Keith Cummings
So I think the new offensive coordinator is really gonna, may have an impact on that as well. Like, do you. We knew that Kellen Moore would probably want to throw the ball more than what the Eagles had and they still ran it a bunch. But you bring in a guy who really loves the run game and you could see a 420 past season out of Jalen Hurts. And then even if Jay, even if AJ Brown has a 30 target share, it's not very much volume. I want to talk about the other, yeah, I want to talk about the other receiver though, in that offense because I have been higher than consensus on Devonte Smith for most of his career. We're also four years into that career. He's going to turn 27. I think before his now I just turned 26 and we don't have even a 1200 yard season. We don't have a 10 touchdown season. He's been a, a very good number two wide receiver who if somebody's hurt he can produce like a number one. Do you think he still has a number one wide receiver season in him at some point?
- [35:48]
Sam Wagman
Probably not as a member of the Philadelphia Eagles and he's, he's staying there for a while exists. Yes, that hypothetical exists that if he were to leave the Eagles I am radically, radically militantly confident that he would be a wide receiver one in almost any other offense. Which hurts me because I also have been extremely overweight on Devontae Smith. You know, I consider myself one of the leaders of that height train. I do believe that he is, you know, talent wise a top 10 wide receiver in the NFL. I'm just, I've come around to the fact that it might not be fantasy wise.
- [36:30]
Keith Cummings
Right.
- [36:31]
Sam Wagman
So I think, I think what people who, who have him on their team, their goal should be this offseason is to find a way to trade for him for you know, a young rising star and a first or you know, a right there star and a second, something like that. Take advantage. Try to take advantage of someone who still does believe in the longevity and ceiling of Devonte Smith. And I'm not able to move on.
- [36:58]
Keith Cummings
Experts like Sam is. But Devonte Smith I think is going to give you a little bit more of a sell high opportunity because he has played spags Chiefs defense three times and his lowest yardage total in those three games is 99 yards. His over under is 51 and a half. That is my favorite prop for the game is Devonte Smith over yards. Would not be surprised if he has 100 yard game in the super bowl and that might just help you make the cell. You might be be selling him next week for a, for a future wide receiver. One we got to talk about the tight ends and Travis Kelsey. I, I think the way he's talked this week at the super bowl is like next year might not be his last year but we still get reports and we get reports about Andy Reid too. And he's not going anywhere that if the Chiefs win the Super Bowl Travis Kelsey might retire. Let's assume that he's coming back because we, we don't know. Let's assume that he's coming back. Is he a top five tight end again next year?
- [38:00]
Sam Wagman
No, no. He just did he, they just didn't need him again. All this could change. You know, we have quite a few outgoing players but just didn't look like they needed him. And it, you know, I'm not, I think, I think something has to do with, with Noah Gray, but this is a great tight end draft class. This is possibly the best tight end draft class outside of 2021 that we've seen in the past several years. So there, there's an a, there's a question there. You know, do they draft another tight end? Does Noah Gray leaving free agency? Probably will. You know what, what do the Chiefs do on offense? There are so many questions that we need to answer before we can realistically answer whether Travis Kelsey is a top five tight end. But right now I just, I don't think he, I don't think he is. You know, Sam Laporta is there. Like they're, they're just, there's. So there are other options that will keep him at best on the fringe of top five, you know, reliability.
- [39:03]
Keith Cummings
So I think for dynasty purposes, he's on the fringe of top 12. Like just not, not really in that conversation because who knows how many years he will play. Oddly enough, he finished last year in total fantasy points as the number five tight end in fantasy football. Now he had a stretch after Rice got hurt and before Worthy emerged where he was just the offense again, kind of like he has been for portions of the postseason. I would not be surprised if he is again on Sunday. I don't think there's any doubt about whether the ability is there. I think the doubt is do they need to do that all season long or are they just trying to keep him healthy for the AFC Championship game because that's kind of when the season starts. I would say that if Rice has a suspension of eight or more games, then I think Travis Kelsey will be a top five tight end next year. If Rice has a suspension of four or fewer games, I don't think there's a very good chance he just. If both Worthy and Rice are there, I would guess Travis Kelsey is going to have some games with 12 receiving yards until we get to January and then he'll probably have a 9 catch 100 yard game where he scores a touchdown.
- [40:09]
Sam Wagman
Yeah. Travis Kelsey for you.
- [40:11]
Keith Cummings
Dallas Goddard, maybe Playoff. Dallas Goddard, like your favorite prop for fantasy football purposes though, is he just a guy?
- [40:19]
Sam Wagman
Yes. Yeah. And I'm gonna tell you why. The chief reason is he cannot stay freaking healthy. Yeah, he misses. I think he's missed four more games in every single season that he's been in the NFL so far and I, I need someone to, to track me if I'm right or wrong there. But that certainly what it feels like he cannot stay healthy. He just struggles way too often with injuries and, and reliability and even with, even with he, even with him, you know, somehow, you know, getting there, he needs an injury to be relevant.
- [40:56]
Keith Cummings
Right.
- [40:56]
Sam Wagman
The way this Eagles passing attack is set up is just that at this point. So I'm not so sure that he wouldn't be a terrific option if he were to go to another team. I think he would. I think he's a very, very talented receiving option. But just due to the constraints of what he deals with in Philadelphia from a target share perspective, it's nearly impossible for him to be anything more than a guy who might have a 60 yard game. Otherwise it's probably a 3 for 34 and you're hoping it catches a touchdown which he doesn't get a lot of red zone targets.
- [41:36]
Keith Cummings
It's really hard to get a lot of targets when you play on a team that throws the ball 25 times a game. And A.J. brown and Devonte Smith and Saquon Barclay are all on the field with you, that's nothing against Dallas Goddard, another guy who might just be better if he went somewhere else. Jaquan in the chat did offer a correction. Yes, Noah Gray is actually signed through 2027 with the Chiefs. They extended him so he will be on the team next year. He'll probably have a two touchdown game. He probably won't matter for fantasy football unless Travis Kelsey retires, in which case I hope they draft a tight end. Let's take a short break and I don't know if you're ready for this or not, Sam, but we are going to do a two man mock drafting the Chiefs and Eagles in a startup dynasty.
- [42:18]
Sam Wagman
Wow.
- [42:18]
Keith Cummings
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- [42:34]
Robert Half Representative
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- [42:35]
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- [42:37]
Keith Cummings
Hey, have you checked out that spreadsheet I sent you for our dinner?
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Robert Half Representative
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- [42:42]
Sam Wagman
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- [42:47]
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- [43:46]
Keith Cummings
So we'll do this Sam. Of course I will give you the first pick and we will do a snake draft. I will. I'll keep track of the teams here. We're going to call it a super flex draft so we'll get the quarterbacks out of the way early and it will be six points per pass touchdown. It will be non tight end premium. It will be full ppr. So hopefully your list that you've got there in front of you is set up in that manner. Who is your first pick in a Dynasty draft of the Chiefs and the Eagles?
- [44:17]
Sam Wagman
I will take Jalen Hurts and that.
- [44:20]
Keith Cummings
Works out well for me because my first pick actually would have been Patrick Mahomes. So it's Dynasty. I prefer Mahomes slightly over Hertz. He prefers Hertz slightly over Mahomes. And this is immediately where things get more interesting because you do have to scroll down just a little bit that the next highest guy that I have ranked is AJ Brown. So I will take AJ Brown with my second pick.
- [44:50]
Sam Wagman
I've gone back and forth in my head over the past minute and 30 seconds. Yes, I am actually going to take Xavier Worthy here and Worthy would have.
- [45:02]
Keith Cummings
Been my second highest pick. You get another choice. So let's see if you will take the guy who would have been my first heist.
- [45:14]
Sam Wagman
I'll probably. I'll take Saquon.
- [45:16]
Keith Cummings
Yep. Yeah, I have. I have Saquon at 49th overall and I have Worthy at 51st overall. So just like those two guys were definitely the guys that I had next on my radar. You started off through three rounds with Jalen Hurts, Saquan Barkley and Xavier Worthy. We've also got Joey Wright saying this show usually has swag but today it has a swag man. Excellent. You always enjoy having Joey in the chat. I think there's one one more. Well, I don't know if it's easy. But I'm, I'm gonna oddly stack the Eagles wide receivers with Patrick Mahomes. So I've got Devonte Smith as my next pick and then I'll go Rashi Rice with the next pick after that. So I have Mahomes, A.J. brown, Devonte Smith, and Rashi Rice. I'm not sure if I'm gonna make myself choose a non wide receiver next, but it seems like I probably should. And I feel like we've reached another point, Sam, where there's, there's a big drop off in terms of who you might want to take. I have to scroll a long ways down my dynasty rankings to see the next Chiefs or Eagles player. We may get to the point here very quickly of can you think of another Chiefs or Eagles player? Who are you taking here? Herz Mahomes are off the board. Sequan's off the board. The top four wide receivers, Worthy, A.J. brown, Devonte Smith and Rashi Rice are off the board.
- [46:40]
Sam Wagman
Dallas Goddard.
- [46:42]
Keith Cummings
Dallas Goddard.
- [46:45]
Sam Wagman
And excuse me, as I go down my own rankings here, Dallas Goddard. And I'm gonna put an interesting one. Yeah, actually, let's see. You didn't take Travis Kelsey, did you?
- [47:05]
Keith Cummings
I didn't.
- [47:06]
Sam Wagman
I'll take, I'll take Travis Kelsey.
- [47:07]
Keith Cummings
That is a really great strategy move there. You took both the tight ends. There's no way I'm going to have a good team now. I, I, I'm, I'm very thankful. Like, you did not take my highest ranked player going into this round, but you did express that you weren't a big fan of Isaiah Pacheco even when he's good. So it makes sense that you would not take Isaiah Pacheco now that he's not been good. I will take Isaiah Pacheco. That is a complete list of the Chiefs and Eagles players who rank inside of my top 150 in my dynasty rankings. We're gonna do one more round. I'm gonna filibuster for a moment so you have a chance to think of two guys because I'm going to take one of them. But you have Jalen Hurts, Xavier Worthy, Saquon Barkley, Dallas Goddard and Travis Kelsey. What a great move that was. I have Patrick Mahomes, A.J. brown, Devonte Smith, Rashi Rice, and Isaiah Pacheco. And now I have to find another Chief or Eagles player that is not inside of my top 150. Scroll a little bit further. We got to scroll a little bit further. I think the names that you're looking here are Probably Will Shipley. That's who I'm going to take. I don't need a tight end Will Shipley. That gives me two running backs, three wide receivers and a quarterback. I can pick Noah Gray up off waivers unless you take him right here.
- [48:34]
Sam Wagman
I'm actually going to take juju Smith Schuster.
- [48:39]
Keith Cummings
Okay.
- [48:40]
Sam Wagman
And kind of need a running back, don't I?
- [48:46]
Keith Cummings
I think. I think we're done. That's. That's 12 picks. We did a, we did a first round. I won't make you go take. You would have to take Kareem Hunt or Kenny Gainwell and nobody wanted to see that happen. You got chat. You can tell us who won the draft. Sam ends up with Jalen Hurts, Saquon Barkley, Xavier Worthy, JuJu Smith, Schuster, Travis Kelsey and Dallas Goddard. I end up with Patrick Mahomes, A.J. brown, Devonte Smith, Rashi Rice, Isaiah Pacheco and Will Shipley.
- [49:19]
Sam Wagman
My team is old. Your team is young.
- [49:21]
Keith Cummings
That your team is kind of old. I hadn't really noticed.
- [49:24]
Sam Wagman
My team is old.
- [49:26]
Keith Cummings
Yeah. I. But you know, it's just a fun exercise. It's. There's not a whole lot of two team matchups you could do where you get 10 players in the top 150.
- [49:36]
Sam Wagman
So.
- [49:37]
Keith Cummings
That's right. That's pretty good. I. I got a couple questions here from the chat and then we will wrap things up because I did see a couple of good trade questions I've got. Is it. We do keeper questions every once in a while here. Brian Thomas Jr. For a ninth round pick. Chase Brown in the eighth or Xavier Worthy in the seventh. That is. Oh, keep, trade, cut. I would keep Brian Thomas. I would trade Chase Brown and I would cut Xavier Worthy.
- [50:06]
Sam Wagman
I would do all those three as well. Yeah. Chase Brown is. Chase Brown's interesting. Like I, I think it's. I think it depends entirely on how you feel about the future of the Cincinnati Bengals and what they do at the running back position with. With Chase Brown because they could easily draft someone else.
- [50:24]
Keith Cummings
He had some Pacheco vibes. Pacheco. He does like, yeah. He could be replaced at any moment. Same thing for Bucky Irving really. But hopefully both those guys get to keep their jobs. We gotta grade the trade. I sent the 103 and a 2026 first for Marvin Harrison Jr. And a 2027 first. So he has Genti. He still has the 105, the 111 and he's a complete rebuild here. But the 103 and a 2026 first For Marvin Harrison in a 2027 first. Is this as simple as it depends on if it's a super flex or a one quarterback drift. Because I think in a, in a one QB league I would, I would rather have Marvin Harrison than 103 for sure.
- [51:08]
Sam Wagman
Yeah, I think I would also rather have Marvin Harrison than 103 in a 1 QB. But, but also I think there are plenty of people who are unsure about this class. The way it looks right now, they don't know what to think about Cam Ward and sure, Sanders outside of Ashton Genti, there's really nothing that is, you know, set in stone about this class. Nobody knows, you know, exactly what Ted McMillan could look like. He could look like, you know, the, it's, this is kind of like Drake London from a couple years ago. Right. We have a, we have another, you know, big contested catch guy who doesn't really separate as much.
- [51:44]
Keith Cummings
Yeah.
- [51:44]
Sam Wagman
And I think, I think that, you know, this could be, you know, a situation where you're taking the known quantity over an unknown quantity, which I'm perfectly fine with doing. You know, everyone knows the family guy scene, you know, where it could even be a boat, it could be anything. So I, I think in that, in that, you know, vein, I'm perfectly fine with Marvin Harrison in this case.
- [52:05]
Keith Cummings
We had a couple of comments on the draft. Cousin Ernest says Sam won for now, Heath won for the future. Sam definitely won for now. I've got Rashi Rice not even playing and Isaiah Pacheco's not himself and Will Shipley's a backup. So yes, I agree with that. Jquan. I like Heaths a tiny bit more. Thank you J. Kwon. And then, you know, just happens to be One more comment here. Happy Super Bowl Sunday. Enjoy the company in the game or Cousin Ernest says go Chiefs. Sam doesn't like that. But Sam, really appreciate you being here today. Always a good time to have you on the show and talk football. Thanks to Thomas for running the show for everybody who was active in the chat. We will talk to you next week.
- [52:59]
Robert Half Representative
Paramount Podcasts.
- [53:02]
G
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