These 4 Fantasy Stars Are MASSIVELY Overdrafted! RJ Harvey, Mike Evans, & More! (06/20 Fantasy Football Podcast)

Summary

Fantasy Football Today: Detailed Summary of "These 4 Fantasy Stars Are MASSIVELY Overdrafted! RJ Harvey, Mike Evans, & More!" (06/20 Podcast)

Release Date: June 21, 2025

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Introduction

In the June 20th episode of Fantasy Football Today, hosted by Adam Aizer and featuring analysts Jamie Eisenberg, Dave Richard, and Heath Cummings, the team delves into the intricacies of Average Draft Positions (ADPs) that may be misleading fantasy managers. The primary focus is on identifying players who are being drafted higher than their current performance metrics and future potential justify. This episode aims to equip listeners with insights to optimize their draft strategies and gain a competitive edge in their leagues.

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Identifying Overdrafted Players

1. Alvin Camara

Timestamp: [00:50] Jamie Eisenberg

Jamie begins the discussion by highlighting Alvin Camara as a prime example of an overdrafted player.

“Alvin Camara is RB15 on FantasyPros. His ADP is 38th overall, which isn't horrible if you're gonna buy into him. But there are some guys going after him that I do like better.” [00:50]

Key Points:

• Injury Concerns: Camara is expected to be the 31st running back by mid-season after missing the last three games due to a groin injury.
• Offensive Uncertainty: The offense's performance is unpredictable, with concerns about the offensive line and quarterback situation potentially limiting Camara's effectiveness.
• ADP vs. Value: While Camara’s ADP stands at 51st in CBS rankings, Jamie suggests waiting until later rounds to draft him, emphasizing better alternatives.

Conclusion: Jamie advises caution when drafting Camara early, recommending targeting other running backs with more secure roles and less risk.

2. RJ Harvey

Timestamp: [02:08] Jamie Eisenberg

The conversation shifts to RJ Harvey, another running back whose draft value is under scrutiny.

“She’s still going on FantasyPros as RB20 at 50th overall. ... Harvey could be a number two running back. I still think he has top 20 upside, but the path got a lot harder for him to get there.” [02:08]

Key Points:

• Impact of J.K. Dobbins: The signing of J.K. Dobbins raises questions about Harvey’s role and production within the Broncos' offense.
• Competition for Touches: Increased competition in the backfield could limit Harvey’s opportunities and fantasy output.
• Alternative Options: Jamie suggests preferring running backs like James Conner, Trevion Henderson, and David Montgomery over Harvey at his current ADP.

Conclusion: While Harvey possesses potential, the uncertainty surrounding his usage warrants a later draft pick compared to other available running backs.

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Running Backs Analysis

3. DeAndre Swift vs. RJ Harvey

Timestamp: [04:09] Jamie Eisenberg

The analysts compare DeAndre Swift and RJ Harvey, debating their relative merits.

“I would take DeAndre Swift over him [Harvey] right now. ... there's a lot to like about DeAndre Swift.” [04:09]

Key Points:

• Opportunity and Role: Swift is expected to have a significant role in his offense without substantial competition, enhancing his reliability.
• Health and Team Dynamics: With a healthier offensive line and a more stable quarterback situation, Swift's prospects appear brighter.
• Chris Godwin's Influence: The presence of other key players like Chris Godwin may impact Evans more than Swift, tipping the scales in Swift’s favor.

Conclusion: DeAndre Swift emerges as a more dependable option compared to Harvey, making him a preferable choice in the current draft landscape.

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Wide Receivers Analysis

4. Mike Evans

Timestamp: [05:20] Jamie Eisenberg

The discussion pivots to wide receivers, with a focus on Mike Evans being potentially overvalued.

“It's Mike Evans at wide receiver 19 at 42nd overall. ... I would take Sutton [Cortland Sutton].” [05:20]

Key Points:

• Performance Decline: Evans’ performance has seen a downturn, partly due to the return of Chris Godwin and the emergence of Mecca Foreman (referred to as "Buka"), which may dilute his target share.
• Alternative Targets: Jamie recommends prioritizing players like DJ Moore and Cortland Sutton over Evans, citing better offensive opportunities and potential upside.
• Quarterback Situations: The uncertainty around quarterbacks, particularly Baker Mayfield's ability to replicate last-year's high touchdown numbers, impacts receivers like Evans.

Conclusion: Given the evolving team dynamics and potential decline in performance, Evans may not offer the highest return relative to his ADP, making Sutton and Moore more attractive alternatives.

5. Devonte Smith

Timestamp: [08:05] Jamie Eisenberg

Devonte Smith is another receiver flagged for his high ADP.

“Devonte Smith ... if everybody's healthy and Barkley’s doing what he's doing, ... I’d rather draft him as a wide receiver three than what he's being here valued as a wide receiver two.” [08:05]

Key Points:

• Team Health Dependency: Smith’s production is heavily reliant on the health and performance of teammates like Saquon Barkley and A.J. Brown. Injuries could severely limit his opportunities.
• Comparative Upside: Analysts suggest favoring younger or less injury-prone receivers like Xavier Worthy, Jerry Jeudy, and Travis Hunter over Smith.
• Quarterback Concerns: Uncertainty in the quarterback position, particularly with Joe Flacco’s inconsistent performance, adds risk to drafting Smith.

Conclusion: Due to his dependency on other players' health and the volatile quarterback situation, Smith may not justify his current ADP, and managers might find better value in other wide receivers.

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Conclusions and Recommendations

The Fantasy Football Today panel underscores the importance of evaluating ADPs critically, especially in light of player-specific risks such as injuries, team dynamics, and quarterback performance. The key takeaways from this episode include:

• Exercise Caution with High ADP Players: Alvin Camara, RJ Harvey, Mike Evans, and Devonte Smith are identified as potentially overvalued picks at their current draft positions.
• Consider Alternatives: Managers should explore other running backs and wide receivers who offer more secure roles and higher upside, such as James Conner, Trevion Henderson, DJ Moore, and Cortland Sutton.
• Monitor Team and Player Developments: Continuous assessment of team changes, player health, and performance trends is crucial in making informed draft decisions.

By leveraging these insights, fantasy managers can optimize their draft strategies, avoid common pitfalls associated with overdrafted players, and enhance their chances of dominating their leagues.

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Notable Quotes:

• Jamie Eisenberg on Alvin Camara: “...you ask him at his age to continue to be this awesome receiving threat, which he can be, but I’d rather take him close to around later.” [01:18]

• Jamie Eisenberg on RJ Harvey: “...Harvey could be a number two running back. I still think he has top 20 upside, but the path got a lot harder for him to get there.” [02:08]

• Jamie Eisenberg on Mike Evans: “...I would take Sutton. And again, I think DJ Moore ... I would take Sutton.” [05:20]

• Jamie Eisenberg on Devonte Smith: “...I’d rather draft him as a wide receiver three than what he’s being here valued as a wide receiver two.” [08:05]

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Disclaimer: This summary is based on the transcript provided and aims to encapsulate the core discussions and insights shared during the podcast episode. For a comprehensive understanding, listening to the full episode is recommended.

Transcript

[Unknown Host]

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[Adam Azer]

There are some bad ADPs out there. Let's talk about it right now on FFT Express. All right, we can take a look at early average draft position from fantasy pros. And Jamie has identified some running backs and wide receivers that he thinks are going too high. And this starts with who? Jamie?

[Jamie]

Alvin camara. He is RB15 on fantasy pros. His ADP is 38th overall, which isn't horrible if you're gonna buy into him. But there are some guys going after him that I do like better. One specifically would be Ken Walker. Look, we know what Camara is going to do. He's going to catch a lot of passes if he stays healthy, but he's going to be 31, I believe, at some point during the season. Coming off here, we missed the last three games of the year with a groin injury.

[Adam Azer]

The bigger thing, though, is it'll be 30 in July.

[Jamie]

It'll be 30 in July. Excuse me. Okay. The biggest thing is this offense could be terrible and we don't know. Look, he caught passes last year from the non Derek Carr quarterbacks. And I think that Kellen Moore will be good for him overall if everything goes right. But you're asking for a lot of things to go right. An offensive line that's still questionable, a quarterback situation that could be the worst in the NFL and a team that's not going to score a lot of points if things go that way. So I just think to take him close to the third round, to take him as a top 15 running back, you're asking him at his age to continue to be this awesome receiving threat, which he can be, but I'd rather take him close to around later.

[Adam Azer]

He is 51st in CBS ADP, so that's great. Yeah. Yeah. Okay, so that's Alvin Camara. That's our first value that we're saying not so good. Not so good. Who else you got?

[Jamie]

So I love RJ Harvey and I'm not scared about the JK Dobbin signing ruining him, but he's still going on fantasy pros as RB20 at 50th overall. Again, the 50th overall I don't really have a problem with, but really it's some of the guys that are going after Harvey. And I think this hasn't necessarily reflected the change of what could happen with Dobbins. Look, he's a really talented running back, J.K. dobbins, as we saw last year, and so it's a great move by the Broncos, but it just really hurts. The clear upside of Harvey, who I know you felt this way, and I certainly did, that he was the second best rookie running back after Genti when we came out of the NFL draft, that there was such a path to success for him in a Sean Payton offense, like it was hard to overlook. Well, that path now could be completely closed off. Will it be? I don't think so, but it could be. And so here are some guys that are going after him that I would rather have. I'd rather have James Connor and you know, I don't really love older running backs, but I think again, easier path to success. Trevion Henderson, who I think is going to share some, some production, but could easily be the best running back in PPR ahead of Harvey. I'd rather have him and I think I'd still rather have David Montgomery, who as we know last year got off to a great start, was having a better season catching the ball than Jameer Gibbs was before he suffered his injuries and started to miss some time. So those are three guys I'm torn on even at this point. Between Harvey and Judkins, Harvey and Caleb Johnson. I think he's closer to those guys than he is to some of the guys that we listed. Again, I still think RJ Harvey could be a number two running back. I still think he has top 20 upside, but the path got a lot harder for him to get there. And so he should not be drafted in this range right now, in my opinion.

[Adam Azer]

Yeah, now I'm looking at NFC average draft position. These are high stakes leagues and just in the last week. So here we can set a date range and see how the Dobbins signing impacted Harvey's adp. So he is basically exactly what what you have. He's behind Connor Montgomery and Henderson and then it's Harvey, it's Connor, mix in Montgomery, Henderson, then Harvey and then it's Quid, Sean Judkins, Caleb Johnson, Aaron Jones, DeAndre Swift. Would you take DeAndre Swift over him over.

[Jamie]

So I, I would right now. You know, I think again you look at the opportunity that Swift has in front of him, it's amazing. You know, with nobody bringing brought in of significance to, you know, compete with him besides the seventh round running back and new offense with a better offensive line. Like there's a lot to like about DeAndre Swift. You know, Heath is, is certainly banging the drum for him to go much higher than I would take him. But if you're comparing him to, you know, a lot of these rookie running backs, I think Swift's in a better spot.

[Adam Azer]

Okay, let's take a break on fantasy football today and talk about some wide receiver values that we do not like right now on FFT Express.

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[Adam Azer]

All right, who's the first wide receiver you want to get to here in terms of going too soon? We don't like the adp.

[Jamie]

Stop me if you've heard this before, but it's Mike Evans at wide receiver 19 at 42nd overall. Again, 42nd overall is hard to argue, especially if it's a wide receiver heavy draft. But again, here are some guys that are going after him that I would rather have instead of Mike M at this point. Rashi rice, who's the 21st wide receiver at 42nd or 46th overall. Excuse me. I would take DJ Moore ahead of Mike Evans right now and I would take Cortland Sutton ahead of Mike Evans as well. And that's probably the two that would get more pushback than anything. But you look at Sutton, well, what is he probably going to give you? Thousand yards receiving and maybe 10 touchdowns. I mean, that's what you're expecting from Mike Evans, right? Evan? Track record much better. But then you look at the offenses and there's so much competition for Evans this year and he was not performing at the same level that he finished the way he started because of Chris Godwin who's going to come back and now they have a Mecca Buka. So I understand why Evans is getting drafted ahead of Sutton. I would take Sutton. And again, I think DJ Moore, especially with Burden being banged up in training minicamp and Loveland being banged up a little bit. I mean he can't like I still think DJ Moore is going to be the best receiver for the Bears. Much better Season, I. I hope for him because of Caleb Williams and then Rashi Rice, to me, is an easy one because I think a player on his ascension level compared to where Evans, who's 32 and probably starting to decline a little bit, I'd rather have Rice.

[Adam Azer]

Yeah. You know what is interesting about this? This Chris Godwin argument when it comes to Mike Evans. Because when Godwin was healthy last year, people, Evans was not even a top 20. I think it was 26ish or something like that.

[Jamie]

14.3 ppr points per game.

[Adam Azer]

Yeah. Which is fine, but it's nothing like what he was, you know, for the full season or certainly after the Goblin injury. I don't really think Godwin's gonna be as effective as he was. So because he's coming off such a severe injury, I don't know this. It's just my guess. However, that doesn't necessarily mean he's going to get fewer targets, right?

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[Adam Azer]

That's when you see guys coming off these major injuries, these receivers, Godwin's an example. Sometimes they get plenty of targets. It's not like they're not on the field or sound like they don't get looked at. They just don't do as well with the targets. So even if Godwin isn't himself, I still see a scenario where he affects Mike Evans negatively just with his presence alone.

[Jamie]

And now you have a booka. And let's not forget, you know, this is the guy that kind of gets lost a little bit. Jalen McMillan was really good for them last season at the end of the year, like. And he didn't need a lot of targets to be that good. So what happens if he does get a few more targets?

[Adam Azer]

I also think you're getting serious regression from. Well, you're getting regression from Baker Mayfield. I just don't think he's good. What do you throw, 40 touchdowns last year?

[Jamie]

Yep. 4, 500 yards?

[Adam Azer]

Yeah. 4, 500 yards, 41 touchdowns. Maybe he can do it again, but I don't know. I'll take the under. Give me another wide receiver whose value you don't like.

[Jamie]

Devonte Smith, wide receiver, 24, 52nd overall. I hope Devonte Smith produces at a high level. I know you do. You made a trade for him in our big burger dynasty league. But when everybody's healthy and Barkley's doing what he's doing, like it. We saw the pitfalls last year, and so, yes, AJ Brown's track record suggests one or two missed games. Dallas Goddard's track record suggests three to four missed games. So if those guys are absent then devonte Smith numbers pop but you're taking him ahead of some other receivers that I certainly rather have. I don't know about you but I'd rather buy into the upside of what Xavier Worthy could be is going right after him. I'd rather have Jerry Judy with the potential of what he could be with Joe Flacco and I'd rather have Travis Hunter who I think is going to have a standout rookie season. He'll be spending too much time playing on defense. So there's just three guys that are going after him that I'd rather have than devonte Smith. I think he's in that blob. We talk about this a lot, you know, basically like wide receiver 20 through 40. You can make a strong case and you can make a pro and con for all these guys to be, you know, top 20ish caliber wide receivers. So he belongs in this group and he can easily outperform a lot of these guys. But I just saw what I saw last year with Barkley there and the other guy staying healthy and devonte Smith makes me a little bit nervous. I'd rather draft him as a wide receiver three than what he's being here valued as a wide receiver too.

[Adam Azer]

I would definitely take Hunter and Worthy over him. I have a feeling I'm not going to be drafting a lot of Jerry Judy. I don't see Flacco starting that many games. I could see this team having one of the worst quarterback situations in the NFL and I am a Judy guy. I, I really like him but at the same time, you know he, it's mostly because he only caught four touchdowns but he was wide receiver 30 last year so he hasn't really done it. I guess that might not be fair to say. He just had a 1200 yard season. It's pretty good. But he, he hasn't scored a lot of touchdown his career. He doesn't get a lot of targets in that area. I guess that could change. I, I think that I still, I guess there's still some projection there with Jerry Judy and I don't know that I want to bank on that. Plus what could be just a horrible mess at quarterback.

[Jamie]

I guess the thing would be is A how many games you think Flacco is going to start and B do you think if it's Sanders, is there that much of a drop off for Judy?

[Adam Azer]

Yes, I think so. I'm not a Sanders guy and I think he could be fine. But as a rookie it's a lot to ask for. And if it's the other two guys, you know they Flacco could start zero games.

[Jamie]

You never know.

[Adam Azer]

Look, it's June 20th so we'll, we'll we reserve the right to change our opinions. I think as of now, if I had to draft right now I'm a little too afraid of that Cleveland quarterback situation. I don't think I can make a case though that that Devonte Smith has more non injury upside than Jerry Judy. He doesn't have big non injury upside. That's the first problem with Smith. Judy does but I think just has a ton of downside too. It's just quarterback related. And the question is, is Cedric Tillman and David Najoku, do those guys matter? How much do they matter for for Jerry Judy? Don't know. All right, we'll, we'll talk about it some other time. Have an awesome weekend. Thanks to Jamie. Thanks to all of you for watching and listening. This is FFC Express. I'm Adam Azer. See you later.

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[Jamie]

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