Tight Ends Preview: Why "Great or Late" Might Make Sense Again (07/31 Fantasy Football Podcast)

Summary

Podcast Summary: Fantasy Football Today – "Tight Ends Preview: Why 'Great or Late' Might Make Sense Again" (Released July 31, 2025)

Introduction

In the July 31, 2025 episode of Fantasy Football Today, hosted by Adam Aizer alongside analysts Dave Richard, Jamey Eisenberg, and Heath Cummings, the team delves into the intricate strategies surrounding tight end selections for the upcoming fantasy football season. The episode, titled "Tight Ends Preview: Why 'Great or Late' Might Make Sense Again", explores current trends, player evaluations, and draft strategies to help listeners optimize their fantasy teams.

Key Discussions

1. Shifting Tight End Strategies

   The hosts discuss the evolving landscape of tight end drafting, emphasizing the "Great or Late" strategy. Adam Aizer introduces the premise by highlighting how top tight ends like Sam LaPorta and Brock Bowers have historically been drafted in later rounds but have yielded significant value.

   Adam [03:03]: "The number one tight end in fantasy has been drafted in round nine or later each of the past two seasons."

   This strategy suggests waiting on selecting a tight end until mid to late rounds, allowing managers to allocate early picks to more proven positions while still securing high-potential tight ends without overpaying.

2. Player Analysis and Rankings

   • Brock Bowers vs. Trey McBride: Dave Richard advocates for drafting Bowers and McBride early, considering their high target potential and consistency.

     Dave [04:36]: "I generally just draft Brock Bowers or Trey McBride and then don't think about it ever again."

   • George Kittle Considerations: The discussion pivots to George Kittle, comparing his value to younger tight ends and debating whether his experience justifies an earlier selection.

     Heath [08:45]: "Tyler Warren is going to be worth that pick. And let's call it late round eight, early round nine."

   • Sleepers and Breakouts: The analysts identify potential sleepers such as Tucker Kraft and Jake Ferguson, who could exceed expectations based on their offensive roles and projected target shares.

     Dave [32:22]: "Tucker Kraft is in round 10, so I think that makes him sleeper eligible."

3. Value-Based Drafting (VBD) Approach

   Dave Richard introduces the Value-Based Drafting method to assess tight ends' worth relative to their draft positions. This approach helps identify which tight ends provide the most value based on projected points versus replacement costs.

   Dave [47:18]: "Bowers projected for 16 points. He's seven points better than what we're calling replacement cost here."

4. Impact of Team Offenses and Injuries

   The conversation underscores the importance of team offensive schemes and quarterback performance on tight ends' fantasy value. For instance, Travis Kelce's performance is closely tied to Patrick Mahomes' efficiency and offensive strategy.

   Jamie [16:09]: "If the Chiefs are a better passing attack when Mahomes was great last year, Kelsey was great."

   Additionally, the impact of injuries to key players like Rasheed Rice and Isaiah Likely is discussed, highlighting how they affect the dynamics and target distributions within teams.

5. Drafting Decisions and Round Priorities

   The hosts debate when to draft specific tight ends based on their projections and ADP (Average Draft Position). While some advocate for early picks on players like Bowers and McBride, others suggest waiting to secure value with players like Tyler Warren and David Najoku in later rounds.

   Jamie [40:27]: "If you take Kittle at 41, so I think it's fine. But if you're asking like who is being underdrafted, I don't think any of them are."

Notable Quotes with Timestamps

• Adam [03:03]: "The number one tight end in fantasy has been drafted in round nine or later each of the past two seasons."

• Dave [04:36]: "I generally just draft Brock Bowers or Trey McBride and then don't think about it ever again."

• Heath [08:45]: "Tyler Warren is going to be worth that pick. And let's call it late round eight, early round nine."

• Dave [47:18]: "Bowers projected for 16 points. He's seven points better than what we're calling replacement cost here."

Sleepers, Breakouts, and Busts

The episode dedicates significant time to identifying potential sleepers and breakout candidates among tight ends. Tucker Kraft emerges as a key sleeper, with expectations of increased involvement in his team's passing game. Jake Ferguson is also highlighted for his potential in a revamped offense under Dak Prescott.

Jamie [32:57]: "Jake Ferguson, you know, had a very strong connection with Dak Prescott in 2023... he could be a borderline top 12 tight end."

Conversely, the group expresses caution toward players like Sam LaPorta and Travis Kelce, debating the risks associated with their draft positions and injury histories.

Conclusions and Recommendations

The consensus among the analysts leans towards the "Great or Late" strategy, advocating for selecting tight ends in the mid to late rounds to maximize value and secure high-potential players without compromising early-round picks on more proven positions. Tyler Warren and David Najoku are recommended as valuable middle-to-late-round picks, while Tucker Kraft and Jake Ferguson present promising sleeper options for savvy managers.

George Kittle remains a debated asset, with some viewing his consistent performance as warranting an earlier pick, while others prefer to rely on younger, high-upside tight ends.

Heath [63:18]: "He's still a difference maker."

Overall, the episode provides a comprehensive analysis of tight end options for the 2025 fantasy football season, equipping listeners with strategic insights to enhance their draft approach and team composition.

Additional Notes

• Injury Updates: The hosts briefly touch upon key player injuries affecting team dynamics, such as Noah Fant's signing with the Bengals and Isaiah Likely's foot surgery, which could influence tight end performance and target shares.

• Upcoming Content: The episode teases future discussions on trade grading, waiver wire pickups, and settlement of league disputes, ensuring continuous value for fantasy managers throughout the season.

Final Thoughts

Listeners who employ the strategies discussed in this episode are well-positioned to optimize their tight end selections and gain a competitive edge in their fantasy football leagues. By balancing proven talent with high-upside sleepers and adapting to evolving team dynamics, managers can navigate the complexities of tight end drafting with confidence.

Transcript

[Adam]

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[Dave]

You all know I've been running an Airbnb for a while now and it's been a great way to make use of my extra space and especially when I'm traveling. And I've got some great trips coming up. First, I'm heading to Pinehurst, North Carolina for an annual golf trip with the crew. Always a blast. Then I'm swinging down to my old stomping grounds in Gainesville, Florida to catch a Gators game and slide into my favorite Mexican spot, La Tienda, for some steak tacos. What I love is that with the Airbnb Co host network, I don't have to think twice about what's happening back home.

[Adam]

I found a local pro who handles.

[Dave]

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[Adam]

What a play.

[Jamie]

Can you believe this?

[Dave]

No, I can't. It's time to dominate your fantasy league.

[Adam]

Off to the races and he stays at his feet. This is gonna go the distance.

[Dave]

Now here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie and Heath.

[Adam]

Well, the number one tight end in fantasy has been drafted in round nine or later each of the past two seasons. That would not be per game. That's just overall PPR fantasy points and both of them were rookies Sam Laporta in 2023 and Brock Bowers in 2024. So just wait for Loveland and Warren and call it a day folks. That has been your tight end preview for 2025. We will talk to you. All right, what's up? Welcome to the show. It's Noah Fant day as he is signing with the Cincinnati Bengals. And we'll get a mention because it. Is there a tight end preview day? Dave, thank you for laughing at my joke. Good morning.

[Heath]

How are you, Adam? Excited to talk about this position. And I've actually, I dug a little deeper on Brock Bowers. I know there's a lot of talk about whether or not he should be an early second round pick. Looking forward to addressing that, sir.

[Adam]

His ADP is right around 18th overall, middle of the second round in a 12 team league. Jamie. We don't really have the same color shirt, but we're in the green family. Happy green day to you. Oh, yeah. Rock on.

[Jamie]

Yeah. Tight ends, baby. Let's go.

[Adam]

Yeah. Heath, did you know that I love tight ends, that I love this position?

[Dave]

I, I, that thing gets a well known fact about you, your love for tight ends.

[Jamie]

I do.

[Dave]

And I, I also did a little more digging on Brock Bowers this morning, so we might just have a Brock Bowers show.

[Adam]

Actually, we're not going to talk about him today. It's really not that important. But I love tight end because it gives you these really tough, you know, really tough decisions that you're thinking about for so long right out of the gate. You know, every year. Do I take Kelsey in round one? Do I take this guy in round two? Whatever it is, it's just always a tough decision early on. That's gonna, that's gonna really impact your draft.

[Jamie]

Anyway, I got a fun one coming up this weekend with the flex drafts. Jake Sealy has changed it where there's no tight end requirement.

[Adam]

Okay. He hates kickers now. You don't have to start a tight end. What, are we gonna have no quarterback soon? Come on, Jake.

[Jamie]

Maybe.

[Heath]

Okay, okay, so how does that change your strategy?

[Adam]

Oh, really? That we can't lead with that?

[Jamie]

No.

[Heath]

Fine. You can ask Jamie that later. It's gonna take 30.

[Jamie]

Threw off his notes. I mean, if he doesn't follow his notes, he's all out of whack.

[Adam]

All right, let's get your overall tight end strategy. Heath Cubbings.

[Dave]

Yeah, I generally just draft Brock bowers or Trey McBride and then don't think about it ever again. If I happen to miss both those guys. David Najoku is a great fallback option.

[Adam]

And you are comfortable drafting Bowers and McBride win Bowers at the 1, 2.

[Dave]

Turn, McBride at the 2, 3 turn.

[Adam]

Okay, so that's, that is basically McBride's ADP, he's going about 25th. That is earlier than Bowers ADP. But as I say, every time, you don't really have a choice. You either taking them or, or you're not. You can't. I'm not going to take them at 13. That's too early. I'll get them in round three. Nope, you got to, you got to take them if you want them. If you have a late pick in the, in the first round, well, and.

[Dave]

Not just that, but you have to take like, maybe you like McBride better, so then you're making that decision.

[Jamie]

Right.

[Dave]

But it's not just that you have to take one of them or you're going to miss it, it's that you're going to miss both.

[Jamie]

Yeah.

[Adam]

Now if you skip those guys in round two, you have a chance at certainly Kittle in round three. Maybe Kittle in round four, his ADP is about 38th or something like that. Jamie, what's your tight end strategy?

[Jamie]

A lot of David Najoku. Najoku. Evan Ingram, Tucker Kraft, a lot of those guys.

[Adam]

Okay.

[Jamie]

So I usually wait. I do, I do take McBride when he's there early round three. So if I have a pick in the first, if I have one of the first three picks and he comes back to me after the turn, I will take him.

[Adam]

We say great or late at this position. You've heard that strategy. You've heard great from Heath, you've heard late from Jamie. Dave, how about you? What's your tight end strategy?

[Heath]

Well, first of all, it really depends on your league format and you can say that for every position, but I feel like this year with tight end, it's very much league specific. I, I would assume that Heath and Jamie would agree that what they said was for like a 12 team PPR league, but if we're talking 10 team non PPR or 14 full PPR like it, obviously it changes and I know we'll talk about that, but generally speaking, it. If I can get McBride or Bowers at a good value, I'm not going to pass them up to me, that's the, the 2, 3 turn. Otherwise I'm going to wait and kind of just settle for whichever tight end falls into my lap. And, and I'm way more comfortable with not just the tight ends that, that Heath and Jamie name, but also Tyler Warren, Colson, Loveland. We haven't mentioned Mark Andrews. He's a fallback tight end for me. These are almost everybody in my top 12. In fact, everybody in my top 12. I'm good to go with as a starter to begin the season. How many of them can be starters all season long? That's where I get a little nervous and that's why I don't want to reach for pretty much any tight end. You're going to say that I'm going to reach for Tyler Warren though because I think he's a top one under player. I'm. I'm in love. So he's probably going to be on all my team early or I wait for tight end.

[Jamie]

I think also Adam, as we've discussed a lot and I know you bring this up in two receiver leagues versus three receiver leagues that that changes. I know for you it does for me as well. The, the want of a priority at Titan big time.

[Adam]

And I don't know how many two receiver leagues you guys play in. I play in one every year. One or two a year. Well, we play in the FFT open but there's another one that I've another league I've had for a long time and I have not had good tight ends in that league. I would, I would wait and wait and eventually you're saying this is just not working because most of my leagues are three receiver leagues with plus a flex. So I did get Trey McBride last year and I won the league. Now obviously there's more to it than just that, but I have definitely changed in that, in that format. Two running backs, two wide receivers, one flex, one tight end. Obviously one quarterback. Tight end has become a bigger priority for me in those leagues. I've lived it and I've seen every year I'm just man, I cannot get my hands on a difference making tight end. I'm waiting too long now. That being said, there are difference making tight ends that you can get late pretty much every year. I just told you, each of the last two years the number one tight end has been drafted in round nine or later. Dave, you called your shot on Brock Bowers last year. So it sounds like Tyler Warren is your Brock Bowers.

[Heath]

I mean I don't think that they're the same stylistically, but I think that Tyler Warren's going to be worth that pick. And let's call it late round eight, early round nine.

[Adam]

Yeah, it's interesting because when I look at the guys who have emerged, the late round picks who have been really good, they there's been 14 of them, I think over the last six years, I think 13 of them have had 98 or more targets. They're all first or second on their team in Targets. Do you think that applies to Tyler? Warren is getting 100 targets. Is he going to be first or second on his team in targets? Is Colson Loveland gonna fall into that?

[Heath]

Warren? Yes, Loveland, maybe he's Jimmy.

[Adam]

Your thoughts?

[Dave]

So I, I think for both you have to decide like, which, especially Warren, because the Colts are not going to be a high pass volume team no matter which quarterback starts, but especially if Anthony Richardson wins the job, which we think is happening. So you kind of have to decide, are you, are you out on Josh Downs or Michael Pittman or both? Because if those guys have been 100 targets plus and for Warren to be second on the team, one of them has to take a big step back. And with Chicago, it's almost two guys.

[Adam]

Could be a situation where he's third on the team, but it's really bunched up between the three of them, you know, like a. Robert. Yeah, it was Robert. Tanya was one of the guys who is third on his team in targets. There's only been three of them in the last, like nine years who have been third on their team in targets and finished top five. Tanya was one of them and he was.

[Dave]

That can happen with a bunch of touchdowns or it can happen with a bunch of team pass attempts. I'm not sure we're getting a bunch of passing touchdowns or team pass attempts on the Colts.

[Jamie]

Yes, it's the biggest fear. It honestly is. It's, it's, it's the environment for Warren. Like, Bauer stepped into a great situation where they threw the ball so much that it helped him because he was clearly the best receiver. Once they traded Devonte Adams and, and his pedigree and his talent and the system was there for him like Warren is, they're going to really have to manufacture targets for him and it could easily happen. And the same thing for Loveland easily happen. I mean, you know, don't spend, you know, two picks in the top 15 overall, 10th for Loveland and 14th for Warren in the NFL draft and not try and feature these guys to some level. I kind of lean toward Heath with the, the situation with the Colts, like Downs is so talented. Pittman is still, I think, going to be such a factor. Like, does Warren get enough chances in his rookie season? Like you hope so. I mean, you know, I don't know what, what tight end ranked. You have him, Dave. Like, he's, he's a top 12 titan for me, so I'm, you know, moderately excited. But it's just hard to, you know, expect the, the volume to be there for him in this offense. Like if it was a, if it was better quarterback play. And look Richardson there, you know, a couple beat reporters were showing one of his throws yesterday. I think it was yesterday, two days ago to have big two days ago, I guess because Pittman doing groin injury, you know, oh look, the mechanics look better. You know, it was, it was a beautiful throw to Pittman and, and hey, let's go. Hopefully Richardson can fix that and everybody's better. Then you get the downs performance, you get the Pittman performance and obviously Warren and the same for Chicago. I mean there's just such potentially bad quarterback play. Like you know, is it going to hold these guys back?

[Dave]

And just to that point I was looking at my opportunity index which shout out to Jonathan Lazar. Thank you for putting that together for me. The Colts were had the fourth highest wide receiver target percentage last year at over 70 of their targets going to wide receivers and the fourth lowest tight end target percentage. So we expect that's going to change more targets to the tight ends. But it'd be a massive leap for them to become one of the most tight end centric passing games and that would be awful for the wide receivers.

[Adam]

All right, so you know, the couple of things that I talk about every time we discuss tight ends is I've already talked about both of them. One, you got to usually have to be top two on your team and targets to be a top five tight end. And two, over the last nine seasons there have been 45 tight ends who have finished top five. That was easy math. 38% of them have been drafted in round 10 or later. So that's, that's pretty high. And only two over the last two seasons. However, if you want to make that round nine, then you got Bowers, we have LaPorta two years ago, you have Bowers in round nine, you have John who Smith, who was not even drafted in most leagues last year. This is a position where we get guys that kind of come out of nowhere. Evan Ingram did it three years ago. TJ Hawkinson was around 10 pick. Three years ago you had a Dalton Schultz year, you had a Zach ertz year in 2021. These guys are all finished top five and were drafted really late. So that's, that's kind of a theme. But that does get to my next question for you guys. You know, it's about, it's just about Travis Kelce. Does he have anything left in the tank? Remember, four targets per game with Rasheed Rice in the first three games of the year. After that, on pace for 158 targets. So nine targets per game basically without Rashee Rice. Last year he was really disappointing, but he's a mid round pick. Well, obviously we'll talk about Sam Laporta and. And also mid round picks used to be a wasteland for tight ends, but it's been a little bit better the last three years. We're getting a little bit better at that. We're not drafting Vance McDonald with a mid round pick like we did six years ago or something like that. So does Dave. Does Travis Kelsey have anything left in the tank?

[Heath]

I think he can be okay. Last year, everything said and done, he averaged 12.2 PPR points per game. That's not worth where we were taking him in fantasy drafts, but if he comes up with that number again this year, then he's worth it. If you're getting him in round six. I think that the thing that really works in his favor is how often is he going to be double team now if Xavier Worthy's healthy, if Rashee Rice is on the field, Hollywood Brown's on the field. Defenses have a lot more to worry about. There's been talk all off season long about how this might be the best receiving core that Patrick Mahomes has ever had and that'll take pressure off of Kelsey. And I just, I think that when it's third down, he's an easy short area target to get the first down. And I, I don't think Mahomes is going to completely get away from him. I think in the red zone he's going to throw to him probably more than just about everybody else on the team, if not everybody else on the team. And I think that there's still a chance that he could be top two in targets on Kansas City. Is he as explosive as he once was? Hell no. He's lost a lot of weight. Maybe he can be a little bit quicker, but I still think he can be a good volume magnet, just not to the level that we once saw. So draft him with modest expectations and I think that's baked into the adp.

[Adam]

So if I give you guys these four tight ends were being drafted around four through seven, who's got the best value? Kittle early Round four Laporta Round five Hawkinson round six Kelsey round six and then there's actually Andrews in round seven, so it's five tight ends. So Kittle Round four laporta Round five Hawkinson Round six Kelsey Round six Andrews.

[Jamie]

Round seven Kittle for me.

[Heath]

I almost think it's Kittle by default because I don't really love the values of anybody else. Maybe LaPorta because he finished strong last year, but I'm worried about his target volume coming down with all the talk about Gibbs and, and Jamo getting more run in the offense.

[Adam]

N A you don't think kidding is good value?

[Dave]

Like I've got Kittle at, at 41, so I think it's fine. But if you're asking like who is being underdrafted, I don't think any of them are.

[Adam]

Do you think any of them are being overdrafted? Laporta. Round five, Hawkinson. Round six, Kelsey. Round six Andrews.

[Heath]

Round seven, Hawkinson and Andrews.

[Dave]

Laporta, Hawkinson and Andrews.

[Jamie]

So I think the just the one thing about Kittle, I don't know if we'll talk about him again, but you bring this up a few times and I think if you buy into the Chiefs being a better passing attack when Mahomes was great last year, Kelsey was great.

[Adam]

Yes, yes. That's a great point. Mahomes, okay, he had nine games where he averaged more than 250 yards per game and Kelsey was amazing. And then he had, I guess eight games where he averaged less than 250 yards per game and Kelsey was awful. The problem is it was like 280 yards per game in the first sample and 190 yards per game in the second sample. So it was never, it wasn't really right in the middle there. But yeah, look, a good, good better quarterback play lifts up everybody, that's for sure. And we're hoping for a Kelsey or we're hoping for a Mahomes bounce back here. But just based on what you guys said, I know that Kittle in round four is something that we're all interested in doing, but it doesn't sound like you're going to be drafting a ton of Laporta, Kelsey Andrews and who was the other one? Hawkinson. It sounds like you're going to be skipping that group more often than not and going for the Tucker, Kraft, Tyler Warren, David Najoku's, whatever's.

[Jamie]

I think if they fall, they're great. You know, we did the pick by pick. I got Kelsey in like round nine. I think it was, you know, wow, you know, so there's, there's going to be somebody from this group that slips through the cracks, I'm sure in almost every draft, you know, so it's great value if you can do it and you know, the sliding scale. So if you don't like LaPorta would you say around five?

[Adam]

Yeah, no, I think he and Kelsey are at the beginning of round six. They're back.

[Jamie]

Okay, so round six. So, you know, that's not awful for me to, to look at Laporta in that range. Kelsey, if he was around later.

[Adam]

Sorry, you're right. I'm sorry. LaPorta's round five. It's Hawkinson and Kelsey who are back to back in round six.

[Jamie]

Yeah. See though Hawkinson, no, unless there's a really significant Addison suspension because now you have Jefferson with the hamstring and maybe Addison missing time so he could get off to a good start. I just think that's too soon for him. So Andrew, same thing. You know, I, I, Kelsey is, is really interesting. You know, Dave said it, you know, 12.2 PPR points per game. Like that's not what you're looking for for Travis Kelce. Certainly we drafted him last year, but if you're getting him in this range, like that's borderline top five tight end. So why would you not consider that if you believe in him still being heavily involved and the touchdowns hopefully coming back up. I mean, three touchdowns is awful. You know, can he get to somewhere close to 8? And if he does and the other metrics are still the same like, yeah, he's not vintage Kelsey, but that's still a very good fantasy tight end.

[Heath]

And then the other factor is Rasheed Rice and how long is he suspended for? Is he suspended? These are all questions that we need answered before we can really feel good about locking in Kelsey in a certain spot.

[Adam]

I think it's really cool. Well, I don't know if cool is the right word, but it's tough with three tight ends in this range and other players on their team. Right. You got the Rasheed Rice situation with Kelsey, you've got the Jordan Addison and now Justin Jefferson situation situation as Jamie alluded to with Hawkinson. And by the way, I'll give you some notes on Hawkinson later that might encourage you regardless of the Addison situation. And then you've also got Isaiah Likely who's, you know, supposed to be ready for week one, but he's having foot surgery. So Travis Kelsey had something like a 15% target share last year, but in one game without likely it was 21%.

[Jamie]

Andrews.

[Heath]

Andrews.

[Adam]

Sorry, yeah. Mark Andrews, right.

[Heath]

Slow guys, confused.

[Adam]

But, but Andrews, like Kelsey, had a really bad year efficiency wise. His yak was awful. Andrews is still one of the most efficient tight ends. He just needs more targets likely. Maybe even if he's healthy for week One quote, unquote. Is he going to be limited with this foot injury? He's not going to be as good as. We'll see.

[Jamie]

All right. Anyway, I would be very surprised knowing the Ravens and what their playoff aspirations are, if they're going to rush him back.

[Adam]

It's not about necessarily rushing him and.

[Heath]

Likely isn't the only piece that could impact Andrews. They added DeAndre Hopkins.

[Adam]

Yeah.

[Heath]

Who might not be able to run fast anymore, but the dude can still cut and catch the football. He does better believe using the red zone.

[Dave]

He does. The one that's exactly right is the one thing. Well, still that Andrews thrived on last year and that's in the end zone.

[Adam]

Okay. All right. I think we all would agree though that if likely missed time, it would help Andrews. To what degree we don't know. But yeah. Okay. So we're going to take a break. I'm going to ask these guys which tight ends they often draft, which ones they skip. We'll do sleepers, breakouts, bust. We're going to spend a lot of time on Bowers and McBride. It's a difficult decision for all of you in round two. And we'll be right back on Fantasy football today. Is this a hit it situation?

[Dave]

It's whatever kind of adventure we want it to be.

[Heath]

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[Adam]

We have to stop this invasion. This crew is a team. We are going to find our way out of this together. Chaos.

[Heath]

It's one in a thousand.

[Jamie]

We get it done right or don't.

[Heath]

Blow ourselves up along the way.

[Dave]

I like those odds.

[Heath]

We'll just turn it off before we blow up. Star Trek Strange new worlds. New season.

[Adam]

Now streaming on Paramount plus.

[Heath]

Now streaming on Paramount plus. It's an all new season of adventures. We have to stop this invasion.

[Adam]

Get into this shit. This crew is a team. We are going to find our way out of this.

[Heath]

Star Trek Strange new worlds. New season.

[Adam]

Now streaming on Paramount plus. Got a funny comment here from Dang. Dan was offered a spot on today's show, but I heard he passed. Okay, welcome back, everybody. Getting into tight ends. You already heard Heath say he'd take Bowers at the 12 turn. Dave and Jamie are more like the 23 turn for both Bowers and McBride. Heath has Big Bride at the 23 turn. And we'll get more into that later. Which tight ends do you often draft? You've already answered this, but that's okay. Let's do it again. Dave, which tight ends do you often Draft Tyler Warren. Who.

[Heath]

And by the way, Adam and, or not Adam, but Heath and Jamie made arguments against Tyler Warren. I feel like I should have a few seconds.

[Adam]

Absolutely.

[Heath]

To explain why I like Tyler Warren. You want it now or you want it later?

[Adam]

I think that was it. Right. That was a few seconds. Thank you very. Yeah, go ahead. Let's hear it.

[Jamie]

I.

[Heath]

The thing that I love best about him in college, first of all, he's an absolute moose. Second of all, his production after the catch and after first contact on runs. That's right, he could run the ball a little bit too. Was outstanding. 6.7 yards after catch per reception last year, 4.96 yards after contact on his runs. I don't think he's going to get a lot of carries, although we saw him practicing handoffs with Richardson at Colts camp. And speaking of Colts camp, all the highlights, all the talk, all the reports are on how mature he looks. He's catching everything. He's used a lot, he's targeted a lot in the offense. I, I don't, I, I think he's going to be used in the same area as Josh Downs, but I actually think his targets are going to hurt Pittman the most. And Pittman, already hurt with the groin, really hasn't like come up to expectations even though the Colts gave him an extension. I think Warren's going to hurt Pittman and I think Warren can end up being a factor in the red zone. He led all FBS level tight ends in red zone targets last year with 21. He caught 81% of them. He had seven touchdowns. He had three red zone rushing touchdowns, 10 total last year. That means he averaged a touchdown once every 2.2 red zone touches. He's also missed just one game in his four seasons at Penn State. That's another thing. He played at Penn State, so good competition. It wasn't like he was playing against Division 2 foes or Mountain west foes or anything else like that. I, I think he's just going to have a huge opportunity to be an easy short range option for Richardson and Daniel Jones if Jones gets in there. And he might have a role similar to what Najoku had in Cleveland. So he's just going to run a short route, catch the ball, make a play after the catch. But he's very, very physical. He's going to be very tough to tackle. He's going to have a lot of highlights. He, he's going to be good for fantasy. So I'm looking forward to taking him in pretty much every Single draft I'm in. Like I said, I don't care if I get McBride or Bowers at the 2, 3 turn, I'm still going to draft this guy.

[Adam]

Round 8, Round 9 so that's Tyler Warren for Dave. Real quick, are you going to draft a second tight end with Tyler Warren?

[Heath]

Yes.

[Adam]

And that would be.

[Heath]

Well, Tucker Craft is a tight end that I've drafted a lot with Tyler Warren because I've waited and, and gotten good value. Evan Ingram's also been on that list. We talked about him. It's usually one of those guys. Or Najoku. Najoku. I, I guess he's a favorite of ours on the show because his ADP is so low and I think it's just because, you know, fans don't want to draft Cleveland Browns players and I totally get that.

[Adam]

Yeah.

[Heath]

But I don't, I don't see how you can ignore his production when he hasn't had DeSean Watson over the last two seasons. It's been electric. And so the later you can get David Najoko. I think you're helping your fantasy team. It's on.

[Jamie]

Yeah. Do you, do you want to draft two tight ends if you only have a five person bench?

[Heath]

I don't mind it. It doesn't, it doesn't hurt me. I don't think this, I don't think it'll hurt me the same way a quarterback would hurt me because let's say I draft Najoku and then I, I stick to my word and I get Tyler Warren in round nine. Maybe I trade one of those guys. Maybe Warren doesn't come through. Maybe Najoku doesn't come through. Maybe the, the public is right on Najoku. I've got two shots at a tight end that could finish top five and I don't mind spending an extra roster spot to do that. I would mind it if it were quarterbacks in a one QB league, obviously.

[Adam]

Okay, so Najoku, the public has him as tight end nine, 88th overall and he has been tight end six through eight per game three straight seasons. And if you took out the Deshaun Watson games, he'd be even better than that. Najoku did have a significantly lower target per out run or target share. I think in the three games with Cedric Tillman. He still had a lot of targets in those games because Jameis was throwing the ball so much. But you had Tillman, you had Judy, you had Najoku, he had Elijah Moore, you got Deontay Johnson in the mix too. Maybe people Are worried about that. Obviously they're worried about the Browns, but he's still 88th overall. Seems like pretty good value for a guy who's had three solid years in a row in David Nijoku. Heath, who do you often draft? Go ahead.

[Dave]

Bowers, McBride, Najoku.

[Jamie]

Okay, Jamie, who do I draft the most? Yeah, I draft Najoku the most, craft the most, and I drive a lot of Evan Ingram.

[Adam]

Okay, so then which. Since we already covered that earlier, which tight ends do you skip? Jamie, you can start there.

[Jamie]

I haven't drafted a lot of Bowers yet. No. Just based on where he goes and drafting with Heath. Don't. Haven't drafted a lot of Kelsey yet. And those are probably the two.

[Adam]

I don't think anybody. I don't think we ever draft T.J. hawkinson. I never talk about T.J. hawkins. I was researching him yesterday because he was the only tight end I had zero notes on. I said, man, I've gone like the whole off season completely overlooking TJ Hawkinson, and I've done him a disservice, actually. I look forward to talking about him more, but before last year when he had zero touchdowns in 10 games, TJ Hawkinson was top seven per game in four straight seasons. I think he was top four per game in two straight seasons.

[Heath]

Yeah, I think before he tore the.

[Dave]

ACL, he was tied for tight end one.

[Adam]

Yes, he was having a great season and he was doing that with Addison on the team. But Jefferson did miss a chunk of games there. So did Kirk Cousins that year. He ended up as tight end two per game in 2023. So if the Vikings are super, super pass happy, I don't know that they will because their defense is so good. But they have been in the past under Kevin o', Connell, there's still a path to him getting a lot of targets. Over 100 targets, you know. Anyway, I just want to say I never talk about TJ Hawkinson. We will talk about him today. Dave, who do you avoid?

[Heath]

Bowers, based on adp. But if he's there in late round two, I wouldn't hesitate.

[Jamie]

Laporta.

[Heath]

I've drafted a couple of times, but I haven't been excited about it. Kelsey. I haven't drafted a lot of. I don't think I've clicked Hawkinson's name one time. I don't think I've clicked Loveland's name one time.

[Adam]

My issue with Hawkins, I don't know if you guys feel this way, is that while he has finished, you know, pretty high in PPR scoring and half ppr. He never dominates. He's never had more than six touchdowns. He's, he's just, he's not this explosive player. So even if he hits adp, he's not crushing it for your team. It's not winning you your league. Even if he comes through, he's just really solid at his best. But he's not a league winner.

[Heath]

Well, he was, it was just under unique circumstances two years ago when he really started to get the opportunity. When Jefferson was hurt, Addison was a rookie. He really stepped up. He was a big, big target for Kirk Cousins. It worked out and then he tore his ACL last year. I think it's just really easy to look at and say, all right, he tore his acl. He wasn't the same guy. Took him a while to come back. And so maybe that's why there's optimism for him this year. I think there's optimism for him as far as like getting off to a decent start because Jordan Addison might be suspended for the first three or four games of the season. Jefferson I think is going to be okay. I trust the Vikings on that. So in games where there's no Jordan Addison, I don't mind saying that TJ Hawkinson can be a must start, slam dunk, top five type of stud fantasy tight end. It's when Addison comes back and Addison is right and we saw it in the second half of last season. I don't think there's going to be any hesitation from Minnesota to lean on Addison as the number two target getter and Jefferson's obviously going to be the number one. Those guys are going to get a ton. It doesn't leave a lot of for TJ Hawkinson. And so what I would be worried about doing is sinking too much faith into Hawkinson knowing that there's going to come a time by mid October where he's going to be getting five targets per game and not being a quality fantasy tight end.

[Adam]

Based on the last two seasons when everyone has been healthy, Hawkinson, Addison, Jefferson, he gets about a 19 and a half percent target share. So what do you think that is more like six targets per game. What's that? So 20% of whatever the Falcon or whatever the Vikings are going to be doing, which is probably going to be 34 ish at least pass attempts. So I think that could be seven targets per game. There's still a lot of targets to go around. He's not the best on a per target basis, but I mean that's kind of my Thing is like, yeah, I feel like he could be a top five tight end. I don't think he can get you 1200 yards. Yeah, I don't think he can get, you know, 10 touchdowns. Addison and Jefferson get all the red zone, green zone, end zone targets. So that's kind of where I'm at.

[Dave]

With Hawkins after he came back last year. He, Addison averaged 7.6 per game. Hawkinson average 6.2.

[Adam]

Okay.

[Dave]

Yeah, that was, that was immediately after the ACL giving him no ramp up.

[Adam]

Right. Oh, and that's the other thing, his snapshare last year Hawkinson was pretty low, especially the first three games. He didn't even hit 50 until his fourth game back and then he was about 68 the year before that. He's playing over 80 of the snaps. So they did not give him his full snap share last year coming off the ACL and MCL injury. Heath, who do you usually avoid?

[Dave]

Laporta and Andrews.

[Adam]

Okay.

[Dave]

And they're, they're two eyes who saw kind of a shrinkage in terms of targets and scored a bunch of touchdowns to make up for it. But I just am concerned about them repeating that.

[Adam]

Good Seinfeld reference there. All right, let's do sleepers, breakouts and busts. My favorite sleeper, tight end, Heath. Jamie. Dave is blank.

[Dave]

Well, I was just looking at CBS ADP and Tucker Kraft is in round 10, so I think that makes him sleeper eligible. He could also be your favorite breakout but it sounds like he's having a good camp. They really want to get him involved. He's George Kittle. Not even George Kittle light after the catch the last two years. Just George Kittle, one of the best players at any position after the catch. Tucker Craft.

[Adam]

I would say George Kittle is Tucker Craft light after the catch. Okay. Tucker Kraft is Heath sleeper. Jamie.

[Jamie]

I'll go. Jake Ferguson, you know, had a very strong connection with Dak Prescott in 2023. No touchdowns last year. He battled concussion issues last year. Obviously Prescott missed half the season with his hamstring problem. I know the addition of George Pickens going to make people nervous, but I still think there's enough volume in this offense for three guys to have success. So he's not going to be most likely unless he has more targets than Pickens. But I hope that's not the case. But most likely he's going to be third on the team targets. But I just think there's enough opportunities here for him to be a borderline top 12 tenant.

[Adam]

Ferguson was actually on pace for 88 catches on 119 yards in the first six games of the season with Dak Prescott. 119 targets. Pardon me, 88 catches on 119 targets. Zero touchdowns for Ferguson, but that was with Dak last year. So we got Tucker Craft, Jake Ferguson.

[Heath]

And Dave Take a dad gum. Guess who I'm gonna say.

[Adam]

Tyler Warren.

[Heath]

Do you want a different name? Yeah, I think Dalton Kincaid is worth elite pick. Hurt last year didn't get the opportunities that we thought he'd get. I know Keon Coleman is kind of sealing the spotlight and he might be number one on the team in targets and Shakir could be number two or Keon Coleman doesn't come through and Dalton Kincaid kind of wins as a mismatch problem for Buffalo and scores just enough to finish as a top 12ish tight end.

[Jamie]

I hate the fact that he's dealing with knee injury again.

[Dave]

Same me right?

[Jamie]

I think so. I mean it's, you know, played through two in knee injuries last year. Was not the same guy when he came back trying to, you know, do the right thing for his team, I guess. And the fact that he's got knee soreness and missing practice now is just trouble.

[Heath]

Yeah.

[Adam]

And he, he played through a partially torn PCL and had a terrible year. Was probably the biggest bust at the position.

[Jamie]

And Knox returned today too, so he was, he was also banged up. So he came back today.

[Heath]

I'll give a tight end that you could stream Week one.

[Adam]

Go ahead.

[Heath]

Brock Bowers. No. Hunter Henry. Taking on Las Vegas in week one. Not a, not a bad matchup for him and you can literally get him with your last pick and maybe he turns out to be decent.

[Jamie]

You know, McDaniels is going to try and stick it to the Raiders too.

[Adam]

All right, My favorite breakout is blank. Jamie Heath.

[Jamie]

Dave Heath alluded to Tucker Craft. You know, hopefully what Matt Laflore said all off season is going to come to fruition, that he's going to be a little bit more involved because efficiency wise he was great last year. I think he could be close to a double digit touchdown guy. I think 8 is probably a safe number for him but hopefully he goes from that 10 point per game range, which is where he was last year, to closer to 12. So he's, he's an easy guy to target late and has, I don't know, top five upside, but top eight upside I think.

[Adam]

Man, I want to stay on Tucker Craft, Heath. Listen, as a sleeper, Jamie, as a breakout, I know we're all kind of seduced by the yards after catch by the yards per target, yards per out run, all that. But man, this team really spreads it around. They just drafted two wide receivers in the first three rounds. I'm not going to expect much from Williams, but I expect something from Golden. Christian Watson's not going to miss the entire season. I don't think. Jaden Reed, I guess, is playing more in two receiver sets in training camp so far. Romeo Dobbs is not. I don't see like this could be one where there's four or five guys just like last year who are all bunched up in targets. But I just don't know that I see enough target volume here for Tucker Kraft. This is actually someone I have not drafted yet and I guess you guys would disagree with my assessment there, but that's, that's the counter to Tucker Kraft.

[Dave]

Well, the real easy answer Is they threw 479 passes last year. They threw 581 passes the year before. He just keeps the same target share and they throw 100 more passes. Well, he's gonna have probably close to 90 targets.

[Adam]

It's not that much that 90 targets is not. It's gonna.

[Dave]

It's enough for George Kittle every year and Tucker Craftsman just said better than George Kittle.

[Adam]

It's not enough for George. He hasn't been Almost every type 5 top 5 tight ends getting 100 targets, 90 target season like that.

[Dave]

Kittle hasn't had a season with 100 targets top 2019.

[Jamie]

If your expectations for him to be a top five tight end, he should be drafting there.

[Adam]

So, okay, Kittle has not. You just said he hasn't had 100 targets since 2019. He's pretty much around 100 per 17 games. 2023, he had 90 and 16 games. So he would not average that last year. 94 targets in 15 games, 86 targets in 15 games. 2022. So Kittle is. Yeah. So okay, Kraft has to be like Kittle then and you know about 100 targets. Turn that into something big. Okay, Dave, your favorite breakout. Oh, wait, I'm sorry. I'm. I was going to go to Dave, then we'll go to Heath. Good.

[Heath]

I, I think Craft is the right answer. I don't know if there's another tight end that could really be like a sensational breakout. You can make the case for Kincaid. We could get Gross and make it for Pitts. We could say one of the rookies for this too. And I don't think it's fair to call Evan Ingram a breakout when he's had a 114 catch season, 963 yards. But he, he's never scored more than six touchdowns in a year. Could he score seven in Denver? I think that's possible. So I don't know if you'll accept Evan Ingram as my answer, but.

[Adam]

No, it's a look, it's okay. Good answer.

[Heath]

Other than Tucker Craft.

[Adam]

Yeah. Tucker Kraft works. Heath.

[Dave]

You guys know I'm just biting a hole in my tongue every time somebody says something nice about everything, but I think, like, the answer is probably it's either Tucker Kraft or there isn't one, but couldn't. If Brock Bowers or Trey McBride has the same season they did last year, but scores 10 touchdowns, aren't they a breakout?

[Adam]

Hell, yeah.

[Dave]

10 touchdowns were 17 fantasy points per game this year. They're. I think those are like.

[Jamie]

I'll just say those guys.

[Adam]

I think McBride only needs six touchdowns with the exact same stats he had last year to reach 17 points per game. So if those guys score 10 touchdowns, they probably should be picked in like the top six or eight.

[Dave]

Maybe it's eight touchdowns, but that'd still be a breakout.

[Jamie]

Yeah, they're going to break fantasy if they score that many touchdowns.

[Adam]

All right, I'm going to get a bus from you guys now. Let's go, Dave. Jamie Heath bust.

[Heath]

Kelsey's the easy answer, so I'll take him.

[Jamie]

Okay, Jamie, it's not based on talent, just the ADP. So Bowers, if he's going in the first 15 picks, and I know he's sort of, you know, shifted a little bit more toward the middle, so that's not bad for me if he's going 18th, but if he's in the first 15 picks, I don't want to take him.

[Adam]

What's the cut off for you? Who needs to be off the board.

[Jamie]

For you to take Bowers at that point? So we did that draft Tuesday night, right? And I took McBride as the first tight end in a two receiver league. And remember what I said to you immediately, I had buyer's remorse because Bowers fell to the beginning part of round three, which means I probably would have gotten McBride coming back to me as the fifth pick, potentially. You know, we don't know how that played out, but Bowers, I think, went, what, two picks before me right in the third round? Something like that.

[Adam]

Yeah.

[Jamie]

So it just, at that point it was like, I don't know if I want to even take him in the middle around two.

[Adam]

Okay. But I'm saying, if who's still being.

[Jamie]

Aboard at 18th overall.

[Adam]

Yeah.

[Jamie]

If London's still there, I would rather have London. I'm getting to the point where I think I'd rather have Tyreek than the receivers. Higgin, I'm. Excuse me, The Titans, Higgins, McConkey potentially as well. And then that group of running backs. It, it, it's all kind of based on a feel, you know, how the draft is going.

[Adam]

Okay. But for sure, if Derrick Henry or A.J. brown or Brian Jr. For you. Yeah. Okay. All right. And we need a bus from Heath.

[Dave]

I think based on the fact that he's being drafted in round five, it has to be Stan Laporta for me, did not like the fact that he only had 83 targets in 16 games last year. Has been very, very touchdown dependent. I expect them to score fewer touchdowns this year. And good grief, is the drum beat on Jameson Williams consistent?

[Adam]

Yeah, actually down this stretch, he, he let the last six games, including the postseason, he was getting more targets than Jameson Williams and was crushing it. But for the full season still, 83 targets in 16 games is very low.

[Dave]

But, and even, even the, the crushing it period, like there was one game, it was 54, 111, 43, 64, 63, 51 in terms of yards. He scored three touchdowns in five games.

[Adam]

He is a, in two years has been a very consistent red zone, green zone, end zone guy for them. That's, that is one good thing for Sam Laporta.

[Heath]

He's a settle for tight end for sure. If you're getting him in round six, I don't think that that's a bad thing at all. I think he's one of those players where that one round, it doesn't sound like much. I feel like it makes a world of difference.

[Adam]

We've got about 11 spots left in the FFT Open, so go ahead and grab that. It all goes to St. Jude. We've almost reached our goal of $66,000 raised for St. Jude. 11 spots left. And the people, if you're watching, these are the leagues that have availability. I think, I think Mike McClure has only one spot left. So anyway, get on tinyurl.com 2025fft please go to podcast awards.com the time to nominate us is winding down. Podcast awards.com or podcast words.com app signup and nominate Fantasy football today in the best sports category and the people's choice category if you'd like. But sports in particular, podcast awards.com and we do have a mock draft on Tuesday night at 7pm Eastern. I think there are still some spots available available there. They're for $50. Ghost of St. Jude again tinyurl.com 2025ffT Join our Mock draft on Tuesday. We're going to do it live on YouTube.com fantasy football today and talk about your teams and see how everything unfolds. We'll be right back to get into Bowers, McBride and the rest after this.

[Dave]

What's up everyone? It's Cnajad, host of the Early Edge, part of the CBS Sports Podcast Network. Be sure to lock in with me and our team of Sportsline betting experts every single day as we deliver our best bets across all the summer sports. We'll have you covered every day and all summer long in mlb, wnba, soccer, tennis, golf and much more. If you want the early look on the betting plays of the day, you've got a home at the Early Edge. Download and follow on Apple Podcasts, Spotify and anywhere podcasts are found.

[Adam]

Summer on the south side of Chicago is heating up. You planning revenge are too. The shy's back on Paramount.

[Jamie]

It's the season of the women.

[Adam]

Women, this is our chance. It's time to get to work. But the men aren't giving up without a fight.

[Dave]

Street's always gonna have a villain.

[Adam]

No one is backing down in the Showtime original series from Emmy Award winner Lena Waithe. Why do black women always have to save the day? If we don't do it, who else will? Don't miss the shy new season now streaming on the Paramount plus Premium plan. All right, some quick notes here. Noah Fant going to the Bengals. Isaiah likely going to have foot surgery. Could be back for week one. Calvin Ridley hurt his leg. Malik Neighbors is back at practice. The Bengals really released Zach Moss. We'll have to talk about that one. And Braylon Allen's having a very good, a very good camp for the Jets. Zach Rosenblatt of the Athletic thinks the jets backfield could be more of a 1A and 1B. So that is an interesting development.

[Heath]

That's how Detroit rolled for several years.

[Adam]

It's true.

[Jamie]

Allen's hurt, though, right now.

[Adam]

Yeah, it didn't seem like a serious thing.

[Jamie]

I don't think he's missed two practices in a row.

[Adam]

All right, so we'll keep an eye on that. Also, hall of Fame game tonight, baby. Can't, can't wait. Marin Hampton, can't wait for that. Actually, that I can't wait to see. So news and notes.

[Heath]

We'll see him running its third string lines.

[Adam]

We'll talk about tomorrow. All right, let's get into ADP then. So we've got Bowers at 18 and we've got McBride at 26 and Heath, you wanted to talk. I think everybody wants to talk about McBride but Heath, what do you want to say about him? I'm sorry about Bowers.

[Dave]

So I It seems like the biggest dispute that we have on Bowers is the number of pass attempts the Raiders are going to throw. We all think he's awesome. It's just are they going to go? How much more run heavy are they going to go and how much volume is there going to be for the passing game? I have them projected for 604 attempts. That's pretty close to a median of what Chip Kelly's done because he's been a very high volume in the past coordinator at that he's 16.4 fantasy points per game and based on my VBD calculations, I'll talk about that more in just a second. That's 11th overall. If it was 584 attempts he falls to 18th overall.563 which was league median last year, 22nd,542 28th and 521 33rd. So I think even if they are very run heavy I don't think he's going to be worse than a third round value. But that just kind of shows you. I think it probably Dave and Jamie could pick out a number of pass attempts and that's pretty close to where they have him ranked. I mentioned VBD and Adam, you wanted me to talk about it for a second because we haven't all year and Joe Bryant came up with this in 1996 like I was in high school and I'm really old now so. But it's basically just saying what's going to be available at a certain point in the draft. I usually use pick 100. You could use pick 120. You could use a different point what's available at each position and then compare all players to that to see how their value in terms of projection total points compares to what you can find at the 89 turn or if you wanted to use the 1011 term right now at pick 100 it's Justin Fields, QB11, RB35 wide receiver, 45 tight end, 10. That's basically nine points available at running back or tight end per game. It's almost 11 at wide receiver. So there's a lot more projectable wide receivers available at that point in the draft than there are running back because we don't project RB 36, 37, 38 to score a lot of points.

[Adam]

Oh, wait a second. When you say nine at running back, 11 at wide receivers, saying that's what those wide receivers, running backs available at pick 100 are expected to score, are projected to score. Oh, okay. I thought that was the difference between.

[Jamie]

No.

[Adam]

Okay.

[Dave]

So, so I've got Bowers projected for 16 points. He's seven points better than what we're calling replacement cost here.

[Heath]

Okay.

[Dave]

From that point. So a wide receiver would need to be Projected to score 18 fantasy points per game to be as valuable using round numbers.

[Adam]

And I think that's pretty close. I mean that's what I would expect about for AJ Brown, maybe hope Brian Thomas Jr. I would hope could get to 20. Drake London, I think a lot of people would hope for 18, but once you get to a little bit past that, I think probably not. Yeah. Okay. Okay. So I think you made your point value based drafting Heath's looking at Bowers versus replacement and saying he's worth a top 18 pick or for you like basically a top 12 pick.

[Jamie]

Right.

[Adam]

Okay. Dave, what did you want to say about Bowers?

[Heath]

I just think that there's no doubt that Vegas will throw less because of who's coaching them and because of what they did in the draft. But, and this is more to Heath's point, so I might be meeting Heath a little bit more in terms of where we agree on the situation for Brock Bowers. I'm just not going to agree with him on where he's drafting them. If their league average in pass rate that's 57%, that could mean that Geno Smith averages 33 pass attempts per game. He was actually higher than that in each of his last two years as the full time starter in Seattle with Pete Carroll as his head coach. And if Brock Bowers is going to have a big target that's, that's abnormally high for a tight end. But he's an abnormal tight end. Then we're looking at just short of eight targets per game. That's amazing for a tight end. That justifies him being at the top of the tight end rankings and being an early round pick. It's just a matter of what he does with them. I, I went back and looked last year. He had nine games with six or more catches. I think we can expect him to average right around six catches if he's seeing just under eight targets per game. He averaged 20.7 PPR points per game. He had at least 14 PPR points in eight of nine games. It is weighted by a couple of Games where he had 10 plus catches. I don't know how many of those he's going to have this year. He had 30 plus PPR points in two of his four games with 10 plus catches and near the goal line. He was invisible last year. Maybe he becomes a little bit more visible this year. Although when they're inside the three, I think that's Ashton Genti territory. The bottom line is that I did move him up in my overall rankings. I think he is worth a borderline RB2 or round two, round three pick, not RB2 three pick. I don't know what the hell that was. But earlier this week and earlier this offseason I was saying, yeah, you should go in round three. He's looked too overrated. I don't think that anymore. I think that he is going to have opportunities to have an average of 16, maybe even 17 PPR points per game. I think the exact same thing for Trey McBride though. And McBride I think will have more targets per game. He's already done that. He had more targets per game last year than Brock Bowers as it stands. And McBride's situation hasn't changed really at all. Whereas Bowers situation has changed for the better for the run game in Las Vegas and for the worse for the passing game. So I'm totally comfortable taking McBride first. But they're back to back both in my rankings and in the overall. In full ppr, non ppr, it's different. I'm gonna want Bowers way ahead of Trey McBride in that format, but in full PPR, man. Yeah, these, these guys are worth taking at 24, 25 overall. And, and if you think that they're going to have an advantage where hey, maybe Brock Bowers does average 20 points per game because he's going to get seven catches per game, something like that, then yeah, if you want to reach for him, go ahead. So I guess what I'm saying is I don't think Heath is as crazy as I thought he was, but I'm not gonna go and take him in the same range where Derrick Henry, Brian Thomas Jr Drake London, AJ Brown, some other running backs that we really love are going. I don't think he's worth taking at that point.

[Adam]

Okay. And remember, two receiver league versus three receiver league is going to change. Maybe not what Dave just said in terms of Henry, Brian Thomas Jr. Whatever, but maybe if you're at pick 20 and it's T. Higgins and Tyree Kill and Jonathan Taylor and Josh Jacobs and those types of players and Bowers or McBride are still there. Then do you take the tight end? I know Heath would.

[Jamie]

That's what I did. And exactly how it worked out. Adam. I took. I forget how I took in round one.

[Adam]

CD Lamb.

[Jamie]

CD Lamb at five. Trey McBride in round two and a two receiver, two running back, one flex, one tight end league. And then I still got Tyree Kill in round three.

[Adam]

Okay, right. Exactly.

[Heath]

And that's great.

[Adam]

Right.

[Dave]

The only thing that I would push back on what Dave said was the Trey McBride situation hasn't changed and it hasn't in terms of the players or coaches there. But I think we're all ranking Marvin Harrison to have a bigger target share than he did last year. He had 116 targets in 17 games. If he does that again, then he's. He's the biggest bust with where he's being drafted. I think we all expect Marvin Harrison's role to grow.

[Adam]

I, I would like to point something out about McBride. Let's move on to Trey McBride here again, he's going at a 2, 3 turn. The Cardinals, they've already gotten some injuries in their secondary, but keep reading that they expect to have a good defense. Well, the first nine games before their by they were 6 and 3. Kyler Murray was throwing 28 passes per game and Trey McBride was on pace for 123 targets. And they were giving up 19.8 points per game as a team. Not, not very good stuff here. I mean fine, 120 targets, but not, not two, three turn stuff for Trey McBride. The last seven games after the buy he was on pace for 199 targets. Kyler Murray was throwing 38 passes per game. They went two and five and they gave up three more points per game. 22.7, which isn't that bad. But you did see a shift in offensive philosophy. I don't really know what to make of it, but if they are going to be a good defense this year, maybe there's just not that much pass volume and. And Harrison could eat into Trey McBride even more. So I, you know, I thought, I thought those splits were pretty interesting. You know, the record was good and the past attempts were down. The record was bad and the past attempts were up in the second half.

[Jamie]

I think the one thing for McBride with me is how much did the late season push to get him into the end zone? How much does that carry over to this year that they just don't want to be in that type of situation where he's not getting more involvement in the red zone. And I don't Know where the numbers are. I know what the overall numbers are. That he finished top three in red zone targets for tight ends. I don't know about green zone, but wasn't.

[Adam]

Okay, so red zone and green zone. He was great. It was the, it was specifically the end zone targets. And Jamie, to your point, I give you those splits. The first half of the year, he had one end zone target. It was, it was Marvin Harrison's territory. Marvin Harrison Jr. Was among the leaders in the NFL in end zone targets. Trey McBride really struggled there, but they did make a concerted effort to get him more involved later in the year.

[Dave]

I will say go ahead.

[Adam]

Yeah, go ahead.

[Jamie]

How much does that carry over to the season? And I think this is kind of where Dave's point is. Like, you know, you see what this, this team is like. I, I could see, you know, again, for Harrison, not to make this a Harrison conversation, you know, for a rookie wide receiver who gets crapped on all the time for all of his flaws, he scored eight touchdowns. And so however that shakes out, you know what, he had a two touch, three touchdown game in week two. You know, so it wasn't exactly very balanced across the season. But I think it's not going to be hard for him to be better and still score a couple of more touchdowns. You know, see his catches and yards come up where it doesn't really necessarily hurt McBride that much. I think there's, this is hard to say because McBride's got six touchdowns in his career. I think there, there could be more touchdown potential for McBride than Bowers this season. And, and that's where I come out with the two guys like I have them back to back as well. I think McBride's, for me, a little bit safer just because again, I, I think you, you kind of see the path for him where, where it makes, I don't say makes sense, but like there's, there's just a little more uncertainty for me with Bowers because of Genti, because of the coaching change, because of. And, you know, you brought this up, Adam, with the quarterbacks. I think it's worth mentioning. I don't buy it, but, you know, we're sitting here saying, can Jay Daniels fall victim to the CJ Shroud, you know, sophomore curse, Not Anthony Richardson, but, you know, just the guy that was really good in his rookie season and took a step back in year two. I mean, we saw that with laporta, we saw that with Kyle Pitts, you know, these guys that, that had good rookie seasons and then took a little Bit of a regression in year two. Again, I don't think that's gonna happen with Bowers. It's not? Why by any stretch, me saying that I'm not drafting him is more based on his, his ADP than anything in terms of situation opportunity, talent. But you have to at least bring it up if we're going to say it with the quarterbacks. I just think McBride has a chance here to build off the way last year finished for him, and that's what makes me excited about him a little bit more than Bowers.

[Dave]

Last thing, Adam, just because you brought up the Cardinals defense and we don't have a, a defense, show if you get to the last round and you didn't draft your defense. Draft the Arizona Cardinals. Yes. They have the Saints in week one.

[Adam]

All right.

[Dave]

In the first half of the season. They've also got Cam Ward, Sam Darnold and Anthony Richardson or Daniel Jones.

[Adam]

Okay.

[Heath]

Carolina in week two.

[Jamie]

Yeah.

[Dave]

Draft the Cardinals.

[Adam]

Okay.

[Heath]

Yeah, they've got a great, they, they really did a great job improving their front, so their pass rush should be the best it's ever been. I think Jonathan Gannon is, is, is a really good play designer from a defensive perspective. And so I would imagine they're going to get after the quarterback a lot this year. That'll help their defense quite a bit. Secondary is a mess.

[Adam]

All right, let's go to K. How much of a drop off is there in your minds, guys from Bowers and McBride to Kittle, who by the way, was the number one tight end in fantasy on a per game basis last year. They were all very, very close. But Kittle did outscore them with Brock Purdy. With a healthy Brock purdy, there were 13 games. Kittle was actually on pace for 111 targets, which is a lot for him. 92 catches, 1300 yards, nine touchdowns. He was terrific. So, Jamie, how much is the drop off? Do you actually like kittle in the fourth round better than Bowers or McBride in the second round?

[Jamie]

I do. And it's something you said probably over a month ago at this point. Like, how much better do Bowers and McBride have to be then Kittle to justify taking them two rounds apart? Again, I don't want to misrepresent what you said, but when you, when you brought that up, it made me think like Kittle's situation got better. It really did. You know, losing Debo Ayuk, not playing Pierce, all. Who knows how long he'll stay healthy, but already on the PUP list once so far, struggling this off season, stay healthy. Jennings now hurt like I know. McCaffrey back and that may change things. He played 13 games in his career without Debo Samuel. On the field, he averages over 16 points per game. PPR points per game without Debo. He's played 12 games in his career without Brandon Ayuka. On the field, he's averaged 14 PPR points per game. Three games where they overlapped. It was not with Brock Purdy. So I don't look at those three and really put a lot of justification into it. You can if you want to. I didn't do the numbers with, with or without McCaffrey, but he's just, I don't think that far apart from those guys. Like, you know, heath is saying 18 PPR points per game. I hope that's the case for bowers. I hope McBride gets more touchdowns and builds off what he did last year. And, you know, that carries over. I just don't see the separation. And so when you said that, it made me bring down the top two guys and keep them closer to Kiddo. So for me, Kittle's around three pick back into round three. So I don't mind, like whenever I get to the turn and I see these wide receivers, you know, when we start to get past, for me, it's really. Once we get past JSN and Garrett Wilson and then it just starts to get that blob of, you know, DJ Moore and Sutton and Metcalfe. Like a lot of those guys, I just don't want to take them at the back under. Like, Kittle's an auto pick for me. I guess I should say I take him a little bit as well. I just haven't done it a lot. But if I'm at that spot, like, I, I just like the opportunity for him and I don't see that much difference between those guys. Yes, those guys are gonna get more targets, kills, gonna score more touchdowns. And I think Purdy leans on him so much and especially in this spot now without these guys being there, like, there's huge upside even though he's older and maybe starting to hit the downside of his career. Maybe last year was an anomaly based on what the previous couple of seasons had been when he wasn't getting those, that, that production and we were concerned about him. I. For me, it's just, I don't see a big separation for, for the top two guys in Kittle.

[Dave]

I. I'd worry a little bit more about the age probably, and maybe I shouldn't. He'll be 32 in October. The other thing I'll say is that this is really heavily influenced by where you draft. I know I'm taking Bowers early in round two, but if you're making this decision late in round two and you're not going to take Kittle at the start of round three, you may not have a chance to take George Bill.

[Jamie]

Unless you take a mid round three. I think you're right about the early part of the, the spot, the rounds, but it's almost like you can, you can balance it. Like McBride should be there. If we're just looking at ADP, like McBride's going to be there at the 2, 3 turn. I think in almost all, all cases, unless you're, you know, like me taking him before Bowers, you get to the back end. The middle of round three is, I think, where you have to make a choice because at that point, most likely the top two guys are off the board. And how much do you love Kittle? And so will you take him? 30th. 30th overall, you know, 28th overall. Like, how soon are you willing to pull the trigger? It's probably too soon based on other players that are there. But I think, like, he's a good, you know, Dave talks about this all the time with the quarterbacks and, you know, taking the, the top three guys or top five guys, you know, wherever you want to put the cut off at. Like when I get to that point, starting at like 33 through, you know, 38, if Kittle's there and those receivers are gone and you know, Walker's off the board, Cooks off the board, like, it just feels like an easy player to select.

[Adam]

So how do you guys rank the top five tight ends with Kittle in there? I'm sorry, quarterbacks. What the hell's the matter with me? Top five quarterbacks with Kittle in there.

[Jamie]

The first three quarterbacks of Jackson, Allen and Daniels ahead of Kittle, the other two behind him, slightly behind.

[Heath]

It feels like a mistake to do that though, because we know that Burrow and Hertz have some gargantuan upside. I'd hate to leave that there. But what happens at tight end when you pass on Kittle?

[Jamie]

Right.

[Heath]

We've already talked about, you know, the concerns we have of laporta and Kelsey. The, the public definitely has concerns about Nujoku. Like, you're, you're definitely, you're definitely going to be in a position where you're just going to punt and you're not even going to think about a tight end. Until maybe round six if you pass on Kittle there. So he's really, he, he's the last train out of town to, to have a difference maker at tight end. And I think Jamie built a tremendous case for Kittle because of the, the receiver situation being in flux so much. It just seems like the safe thing for the 49ers to do is just lean on Kittle a little bit more like they did last year. 6.3 targets per game, almost 16 ppr points per game. 49ers have an unbelievable schedule this year. They were a last place team and so they've got three games against other former last place teams and they take on the NFC west and the NFC south and the AFC South. So there are a lot of things to love about Kittle. You almost have to look at it and say he's the Derrick Henry of tight ends. The biggest strike against him is that he's old. And if you can overlook that, and you should be able to overlook that because he's been awesome each of the past four years anyway. Just not 15 PPR points per game.

[Adam]

I don't know about, I don't know.

[Heath]

I think he's absolutely worth taking in that range and I think he is still a difference maker.

[Jamie]

I give you again, just, you know, looking at drafts we've done because this was a PPR draft we did in July. We had Jake Seeley in this draft, Joey Wright was in this draft, Joe Pcpo was in this draft. You know, a lot of smart people.

[Adam]

Sorry, I was in it.

[Jamie]

You are in this. So is Dave Sosi. That's so I had the 12th pick and I started with Amara St. Brown and Ashton Genti. And then here we go, round three and round four. I took Lamar Jackson and George Kittle. Not something that I do often at all. Taking quarterback and tight end in the first five rounds and being the first one to take a quarterback. But at that point in the draft, like this was what was available after those guys was. The top receivers were McLaurin, Metcalf, Evans, Harrison. I like the quarterback and tight end better than all those guys. And the running backs available were Camara, Harvey, Hubbard, Mix. And still at that point, like to me it was easy to go that route. Something that I don't usually do. But when the way the board fell, I was more than thrilled to do it. And so you say this all the time, Adam, like when we look at teams like that, that go early quarterback, early tight end, it's like ew. Because the running backs and the Titan, the receivers are, are not great and that's a three receiver league. But again, when you start to look at the points per game, you know, to go back to his point about value based drafting, like the, the value that I got for those two players is pretty immense. If Kittle is what he is and obviously being, you know, Lamar Jackson. Okay.

[Dave]

The other thing is I, one thing I've struggled with in projecting them is how many more targets are available than last year because Debo and iuk only had 128 targets between the two of them last year and Ricky Pearsall and Christian McCaffrey only had 65. I think we think Piercel and McCaffrey are probably going to be at 200.

[Adam]

Yep. I, I, I see more down. I draft Kittle all the time, but I don't think it's as much of a slam dunk because I look at 20, 22, five games with McCaffrey, Iuk and a healthy Debo. Samuel Kittle had a 13.6% target share. I look at 2023, he had 90 targets in 16 games. And you had, you had five, you had four guys with 83 to 105 targets. You had everybody playing 15 to 16 games. So you might get that 90 target season, 95 target season. And then you never know. He might, he might not return value. But he's, he is so good and he is the most efficient tight end. He's led the position in yards per outrun two straight seasons. I'd love to keep talking about Kittle, but let's move on here and talk about the next five tight ends or at least the next four. Sam laporta, TJ Hawkinson, Travis Kelsey, Mark Andrews. So we have touched on all of these guys. Sam laporta, TJ Hawkinson, Kelsey and Andrews.

[Jamie]

In that group too, because I mean, we're, we're taking him ahead of those guys.

[Adam]

Well, I'm gonna just, I'm gonna make. Well, that's fine. I mean, you could say right now Najoku is the best value because he's going like 84th or whatever. I said I would take him literally.

[Dave]

Ahead of every name that you said in this range.

[Adam]

So here's my issue with that. It's like I get it, you know, based on where he's been the last three years. But Jamie, you were going to take him in round six or something like that, I think. And I just thought that was too early. I mean, I just don't think he, I, I just, I do fear the Browns and If you're telling me I can get Najoku around 8, awesome. Love the ADP. But if I have to take him in round 6, maybe even round 7, I'm not sure I want to do that. But who's comfortable taking Najoku in round six? Who's comfortable taking a joke in round seven?

[Jamie]

The reason I was going to take him there was because I didn't love the receivers on the board. Two receiver league. And so again, I think Titan gets pushed up a little bit in those formats. The reason I was laughing, and Adam knows why is because I forgot that I drafted McBride.

[Adam]

Yeah, that's right. We were doing it live on the air at jb.

[Jamie]

Live on the air. I was using. I was using the app instead of, you know, something in front of me where I could see everything. So Adam goes, why did you do that?

[Adam]

Jamie didn't realize he had taken McBride.

[Heath]

That's a good, that's a good draft lesson though.

[Jamie]

I guess.

[Adam]

So look at your team. Back to the question, Heath, what round? What? That. The better question is what round are you comfortable taking Najoku in? In a 12 team league.

[Dave]

So just based.

[Jamie]

How many, how many receivers are you starting? Right.

[Adam]

Well, give me both answers. Two receivers and three receivers plus a flex.

[Dave]

I think in two I'm fine with six and three, I'd probably go seven. You mentioned fearing the Browns. The last three years they've thrown for 3,500 yards and 19 touchdowns. 3,693 and 24 touchdowns. 3,419 touchdowns. It's really bad to be hard to be worse than that.

[Adam]

Right. But they've also been among the NFL leaders in pass attempts.

[Dave]

I think it's just the least efficient pass attempts ever.

[Adam]

Yeah, Basically they've been first in plays and fifth in past attempts each of the last two seasons. But they've been 19th and 20th in gross passing yards per game. They've been 15th and 28th in passing touchdowns. All right, so let's say what round seven, the sweet spot where we take Najoku. Fair.

[Heath]

I'd say so. That's where I'd look for him.

[Adam]

Evan Ingram. Heath, you love Evan. No, you don't love Evan Ingram. I did look into your theory that teams that throw to running backs don't throw to tight ends over the last six seasons. The first three seasons in that stretch. Your theory is awful. There are plenty of tight ends that did great with with teams that were top five and running back targets the. The last three seasons of that stretch. Your theory is brilliant. You basically only have John who Smith, who has been a great tight end on a team that's thrown a lot to their running backs. So I don't really know what to make of that.

[Dave]

I think you're actually ascribing Dave's theory to me. I always credit Dave whenever I say it.

[Adam]

Oh, okay. Sorry.

[Dave]

But the bigger problem for me with Evan Ingram is not just like, yeah, there can be tight ends who have 90 or 100 targets and are good. The history of Evan Ingram's career suggests you better get him 120 targets if you want him to be any good. He's one of the least efficient tight ends ever.

[Adam]

Is that. I know last year was the case, but you're saying that's really a career long thing for him.

[Dave]

He was 7 yards per target last year. He's 6.7 for his career. He, his career touchdown rates like 3%.

[Adam]

So in the one year where there's.

[Heath]

A Serious anomaly was 20, 23. Remember when Jacksonville like all their receivers got hurt and his efficiency was still terrible. Yeah, it was. His adot was low if I recall.

[Adam]

So the thing is with him is, is yeah, per target Evan Ingram is not going to be good. I want to know though, per route run because he does get a lot of targets, right? He makes up for this low efficiency with a lot of targets. So just since he. I'm just going to look this up right now. Since Evan Ingram entered the NFL, where does he rank in target per out run rate? Pretty high.

[Heath]

That's good that he rates high. To me it's about situation more than anything else right now.

[Adam]

All right, so do we like Evaning Heath does not like Ingram. Jamie and Dave, I feel like you do.

[Jamie]

Well, can I, can I ask Keith the question just from a projection standpoint, this is not about Ingram because I think this like to me this is kind of like a tight end philosophy. Like where, where in your projections do we get to like the, the 10 point per game or less guys?

[Dave]

Unfortunately it's much higher than I would like right around tight end date and.

[Jamie]

And that's a hundred percent. I think the, the focus for what this position is like. But there's got to be a handful of guys wherever the cutoff is for whoever's drafting these guys. So like if you're looking at it at ADP, if you're looking at our, our YouTube, you know, site with fantasy pros, like it cuts off at, at Najoko, I think that's fair. You know, if you want to put him at 8. But I think the guys in front of him are in similar range. Like I think those guys. So Bowers, McBride, Kittle, Laporta, Hawkinson, Kelsey, Andrews, Najoku. They all feel like they could be 12 points per game or more. Right? Andrews needs a lot of touchdowns, but I would put him below this group. I'd put Craft closer to this group. But whatever semantics. I think it's like once you get to that point in the rank list, average opposition like 10 points to me is a guy that's going to be in the, in the top 12ish range. So like Ferguson, I think the two rookies can be there. I think Kraft has to do a little bit more. But that's basically where it was last year. Like then it's just, I think you start to nitpick like offense and potential role, top two and targets like all those things that we discuss. But this is the, the late group and so like wherever the cutoff is. So I think Ingram can be like 11 points per game at best without just a huge spike season. So I think like this is the cutoff for me. Like I don't know, I don't know if I'm making sense.

[Adam]

No, no, I, I get it. And I think we're getting to the point in the draft after Najoku for you guys where what do you do? Do you take the guy that you think can get you 10, 11 points like an Ingram or a, you know, maybe Kincaid or Goddard. Like Goddard could get there. Goddard's never gonna crush it, but he's.

[Jamie]

Usually a 10 point per game guy. I think Earth is a 10 point per game guy. I think Kincaid will hopefully be a 10 point per game guy. Like that's where you know, you start to get to the Lake group. Ferguson is a 10 point per game guy. Like there's, there's upside for more. Clearly it's probably again going to be touchdowns. But like it's basically like okay, who could be six for 706? Like that's kind of, you know, 60 for 706. Like so it's kind of what I look at.

[Adam]

So take shots, take shots at, at Loveland and Colson and, and Warren. Right? I mean take shots at these rookies here.

[Jamie]

Absolutely. Yeah. It's, it's. Once you get to this point in the draft, it's, it's like okay, does Ingram have more upside than, than Warren or Loveland? Like I wish again the environments for those rookies were better because of quarterback play and, and target competition. Like Ingram can easily be second on his team. And targets, forget about the efficiency. I don't think he was wrong there, but you're looking at, you know, Marvin Mims, who Sean Payton hated for the first, you know, year and a half of his career, and maybe Pat Bryant and maybe Devon Vale and maybe, maybe, maybe like, you know, they. They go out, they get a guy who's proven. And Ingram could be second on this team in targets. That's why I like him a little bit better than. Than those guys. Craft is the hardest sell for me because while there's so much upside. You said it, Adam. They just drafted two rookies, one in the first round. You know, they're getting some guys hopefully healthy at some point during the season. You know, Dobbs missed time last year, obviously. Reed had to step back. Like, there's, there's a lot of, you know, ways for the receiving core to be very productive here. I lean more towards what Heath said. Like we're going to see more volume, so hopefully that benefits everybody.

[Adam]

But are you going craft over Ingram?

[Jamie]

I have Ingram overcraft, but it's. That's one of those. That flip flop almost on a weekly basis.

[Adam]

But I would also say that Ingram, any. Any argument for Ingram is probably a full PPR argument. If you're talking half ppr, yes. Then you're going craft there. We're definitely.

[Heath]

The other thing. There's two other things about Ingram.

[Adam]

Hold on one second. Don't take Johnny Smith as tight end, 12 or whatever. I don't know why he's still there, but go ahead. Right, right.

[Heath]

Yeah, yeah, yeah. Johnny Smith. I don't even think should be drafted at this point. That's unfortunate.

[Adam]

Go ahead, Dave.

[Heath]

Maybe you'll pick him up off waivers if he ends up being a thing for Pittsburgh. Okay. Number one. The. The Broncos were desperate to find somebody who could be a mismatch problem in the passing game. They didn't really have that last year. Closest thing that they had to that was Mims because of his speed, and he kind of showed up. He flashed at the end of the year, but I don't think this coaching staff wants to make Marvin Mims the number two target getter on the team. I think they wanted somebody who could be. You've heard the term joker role, and Sean Payton uses that all the time. I think that's what they want out of Ingram is to be the guy that's faster than a linebacker, bigger than a safety, can take advantage of all the matchups and win in the short area. And we Talked about it with Bo Nix on our quarterback preview show. Bo Nix threw a ton of short throws, so Ingram, who has a low A dot, and we talked about his inefficiency because of it. The dude is perfect for Bo Nix. And so I see him easily being second on the team in targets. And, yeah, non ppr, I'm not going to be as excited, but I think Evan Ingram's gonna have a pretty damn good year.

[Adam]

Okay. All right, so I'm gonna read some more names and tell me, you know, who you're excited about. Are you excited to draft Colson Loveland? Yes.

[Jamie]

Yeah, he's one of those.

[Heath]

Oh, sorry, James, go ahead.

[Jamie]

No, I think Loveland and Warren, it's, it's almost identical. Like, you know, they're not the same players clearly, but it's just you have competition for targets, you have quarterback questions. You have, you know, just the upside of, man, these guys are so talented and what they could be. And so, you know, again, if you're going to commit to taking two tight ends, you're probably going to be more excited about taking the rookies. Or if you're just going to say, okay, I'll see how it looks in week one and then maybe play it out over the course of the season so you can go that route as well. Like, it's just if I had more. If I had more confidence that they would be great right away, they'd be ranked higher, but I think they're worth taking as top 12 tight ends. Absolutely.

[Adam]

All right, next four on the list are Kincaid, Dallas Goddard, Jake Ferguson and Kyle Pitts. Do you see Kincaid, Goddard and Ferguson as maybe the last guys you could take and feel like, all right, whatever. I'll throw out a stream, you know, maybe a guy. Then get me those 10 PPR fantasy points per game. Kincaid, Goddard, Ferguson, and then Pitts is more of a. Throw it. Throwing a dart. You know, throwing a dart here, just hoping for something.

[Heath]

I'll put Pitts in that group as long as Mooney's out. Well, yeah, so if Mooney's injury lasts into the season, I think that's going to be an uptick for Pitts. Pennock seems to really like throwing a Kyle Pitts. I don't think Kirk Cousins really like throwing to Kyle Pitts. Last year, I would say that, I would say that Kincaid and Pitts, even with the injuries, with that Kincaid's dealing with right now, they, they, they've got that semblance of upside to where, yeah, they might average around nine PPR points per Week. But they've, they've, there's talent that we've seen in them that could make, that gives them some appeal to finish north of 10 over the course of the season.

[Adam]

I know you gotta run. Heath has to run. I'm sorry. So I just wanted him to get his last word in there.

[Dave]

I just think you kind of put Concade in the safe range with the other guys and then Pitts was the upside guy. And I just don't, I don't think there's any reason to think that Kincaid has any sort of startable floor.

[Adam]

Okay.

[Dave]

Like he is still an upside guy. I, I would just put him and Pitts together. I think Ferguson is an outstanding guy. If you want to paralyze tight end with love under a Warren because he is the safe guy.

[Jamie]

And I would say, I mean, I don't know.

[Adam]

Ferguson is not. I mean, you want to talk about efficiency, he had basically Evan Ingram's efficiency last year and all. He, he just needs targets. But they got George Pickens now. How is Jake Ferguson safe, by the way? The Dallas Cowboys are coming.

[Dave]

Those guys do not even, they don't work in the same stratosphere.

[Adam]

But, but he's going to get targeted. They've never had, the Dallas Cowboys have had their tight end be second on the team of targets. I think four straight years they've had awful wide receivers opposite CD Lamb. Now they don't. And you know, how does that not affect Jake Ferguson?

[Jamie]

Well, I mean, it obviously has to affect Jake Ferguson, but then you also have to look at what Dak Prescott's history has been like from Jason Whitten through Jake Ferguson with Dalton Schultz mixed in between. They're like, this is a position that he leans on.

[Adam]

Yeah.

[Jamie]

And so yes, obviously the receiving core matters by far, but if we're talking about like 90 targets as sort of a baseline here for maybe where Kraft could be and where Kittle could be, you're getting that at such a huge discount for maybe 3 points difference. And the value is, is much better for Ferguson as just a late round dart. So I, I don't think he's going to get to 12 plus points. I just don't think that's in his range of outcomes if everybody's healthy. But that 10 point barrier, like he's going to be knocking up against it pretty, pretty regularly. And that's kind of been his career. And so, you know, again, is he going to be the guy that we saw against the packers in that playoff game when he had three touchdowns and you know, 10 catches for 90 something yards? Obviously not. Does he have that in his, in, in his, you know, potential? You know, once in a blue moon, clearly. But I think. And he said it best, like if you're looking at it like Kincaid and Pitts are on one side of the ledger and I think you got to put earth in this conversation. Like it just. They're, they're safe fallback options. Goddard's a safe fallback option. Ferguson's a safe fallback option. Ertz, the way he finished last year, you have McLaren with a contract situation and we're asking, you know, an elder Debo Samuel to switch teams and be older.

[Adam]

Zacher's 34.

[Dave]

Okay, just, just for, for a second though, Adam. There were like 190 targets last year that went to Jalen Tolbert, Brandon Cooks, Jalen Brooks, Jonathan Ming.

[Adam]

Other guys are going to get targeted too.

[Dave]

George pickens could have 120 targets and not impact Jake Ferguson.

[Adam]

Yes. Yeah, I don't agree. 120 I think would impact for. But Fergus is not even that good. That's the thing. It's like, it's not like he's a great player player. He needs a lot of.

[Heath]

He's a red zone weapon. Two years ago.

[Adam]

What happened? Oh no.

[Dave]

Oh no.

[Heath]

What happened? I'm so sorry.

[Jamie]

He didn't take away my.

[Adam]

Oh no.

[Heath]

I missed something.

[Jamie]

Oh.

[Adam]

All right, well, we're still recording. We're still recording on audio here, so. We're still recording on audio. Heath meant to leave the room. Instead he ended the stream. So we're just gonna. All right, get out of here. He. We're gonna keep recording here on audio. The rest of the names. Zach Ertz, Isaiah Likely, Pat Friarmuth, Brenton Strange, Darren Waller, Hunter Henry, Kate Otten, Chig Okonkwo. Did I say any names there that you think are worth looking at in a 14 team league.

[Heath]

League.

[Jamie]

I think there's a few guys that I'm, I'm very interested in because of what the, the category we look for. Mason Taylor could be second on the team in targets for the jets and Chigo Conko could be second on the team in targets for the Titans. Okako finished the season last year very strong with his last three games and Taylor by all accounts is having an amazing training camp so far. So those two guys in terms of again, opportunity, they stand out at a very high level. Brandon Strange is very interesting just because he had some, you know, again, 9.4 PPR points per game basically in, in the games is what he averaged in the games that Ingram missed. So can he be in that range again? You know, late round tight end option, a lot of sleeper appeal. And then you mentioned it. Hunter Henry, you know, in terms of his, his role, like, here's all these new shiny toys for the Patriots. Like, it wouldn't be surprising if Henry still a pretty big factor for the, for the Patriots passing him.

[Adam]

Okay. And I've made the point many times that you don't have to be a super talented tight end to do what John who Smith did last year, which is run basically the shortest routes at the position, catch a lot of passes behind the line of scrimmage and maybe Darren Waller can do that. But I do think it's a good.

[Jamie]

Sign for Waller just based on the fan signing with the Bengals. And, and that's kind of a. I know we're not going to look at this, but Gaseki last year, yeah, was awesome when T. Higgins missed games and then when Higgins was healthy the last two or three games of the season, Kaseki was fantastic. And so for what we. What I don't, I don't think fan's gonna be a huge impact on Gaseki, but it kind of just takes him for me back a few spots in the rankings. So he'll have his moments, I think, when, if Higgins misses anytime. But I think it's going to be a little bit of a problem just for having another guy there that could take some playing time away.

[Adam]

All right, listen, this has been the longest tight end preview we've ever done, so I have one more question. Dave. Any year, two tight ends other than Bowers that you think could become fantasy relevant this year, Theo Johnson, Jatavian Sanders are the two that.

[Heath]

No, I know some people want Jatavian Sanders to be that guy. I'd be surprised if, if, if he were that guy.

[Adam]

Okay, well, thank you very much.

[Jamie]

Don't forget about Arroyo too.

[Adam]

Yeah, absolutely. Thanks everybody.

[Heath]

Enjoy the game tonight.

[Adam]

Yeah. A little football tonight. Excellent. We will talk to you tomorrow with the mailbag on fantasy football today, Paramount Podcast. Hey, this is Jon Rothstein and I want to remind you to lock in.

[Dave]

With my new podcast, Inside College Basketball.

[Adam]

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[Dave]

In regards to college basketball.

[Adam]

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