Top Rookies, Trade Candidates, & Dynasty Strategy Talk with Jacob Gibbs (2/28 Fantasy Football Today Dynasty)

Summary

Fantasy Football Today: Episode Summary – Top Rookies, Trade Candidates, & Dynasty Strategy Talk with Jacob Gibbs (Released February 28, 2025)

In this engaging episode of Fantasy Football Today, host Heath Cummings welcomes back Fantasy Football expert Jacob Gibbs to delve deep into dynasty strategies. The discussion spans trade candidates, free agent evaluations, quarterback prospects, wide receiver assessments, and an exclusive look at the top six rookies poised to make an immediate impact. Stripping away the ads and focusing solely on content-rich conversations, this summary captures all pivotal moments, insightful analyses, and key conclusions drawn by the hosts.

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1. Trade Candidates: Spotlight on Travis Kelsey

[03:03] Heath Cummings:
Heath initiates the discussion by assessing Travis Kelsey's value as a trade candidate. He questions how dynasty managers perceive Kelsey's current standing, especially in light of his recent injury and age.

Jacob Gibbs:
Jacob provides a nuanced view, highlighting Kelsey's drop to tied for 23rd in perceived value (KTC rankings). He underscores the risks associated with Kelsey's age and potential decline, stating, “He’s definitely playing this year. I probably undervalued him a little bit just thinking about last year for fantasy football purposes” [06:41]. Gibbs emphasizes that while Kelsey's recent performance suggests a possible rebound, the significant risk of another injury looms large.

Heath Cummings:
Heath counters by positioning Kelsey at 10th in his own dynasty rankings, balancing between Kelsey’s production and risk. He muses, “He scored a point and a half more per game than Laporta and Andrews” [04:31], suggesting that Kelsey's touchdown output might not fully reflect his fantasy value.

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2. Quarterback Scenarios: Matthew Stafford and Aaron Rodgers

[06:41] Heath Cummings:
Heath transitions to discuss the quarterback landscape, particularly focusing on Matthew Stafford's future. He speculates on Stafford's potential decline due to age but also acknowledges Stafford's high football IQ and ability to manipulate defenses.

Jacob Gibbs:
Jacob remains cautiously optimistic about Stafford's continued relevance, stating, “His ability to manipulate defense... means there's hope that even if the arm talent did decline, he would still be able to be a relevant guy for some time” [06:41]. However, he expresses skepticism about Aaron Rodgers' longevity, comparing Rodgers to legends like Tom Brady and Drew Brees but ultimately believing Rodgers might be "washed" [15:25].

Heath Cummings:
Heath discusses the implications of potential trades involving Stafford, Cousins, and Rodgers, pondering whether they would serve as low-end QB1s or QB2s in dynasty formats. He raises concerns about Stafford potentially becoming a QB2 if he leaves the Chiefs [13:28].

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3. Wide Receiver Evaluations: Amari Cooper and Keenan Allen

[40:35] Heath Cummings:
The conversation shifts to wide receivers, where Heath evaluates veterans like Amari Cooper and Keenan Allen. He notes Cooper's inconsistent performance last season and the uncertainty surrounding his future with the Bills.

Jacob Gibbs:
Jacob differentiates between Cooper and Keenan Allen, expressing more hope in Cooper’s ability to bounce back despite his age ([40:53]). He points out that “Amari Cooper had a strong 2023 better than people realize” but acknowledges his poor performance the following year as a concern.

Heath Cummings:
Heath shares his dynasty rankings, placing Amari Cooper at WR15 and expressing reservations about Cooper's longevity, especially as he turns 31 [42:05]. He emphasizes the importance of Cooper staying in a strong offensive environment like Cincinnati alongside Jamar Chase and Joe Burrow.

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4. Free Agent Running Backs: Evaluating Risk and Potential

[31:37] Heath Cummings:
Heath assesses free agent running backs, highlighting J.K. Dobbins, Aaron Jones, and Najee Harris. He advises caution, especially with veterans like Aaron Jones who, despite strong performances, carry age-related risks [32:48].

Jacob Gibbs:
Jacob concurs on the cautious approach, noting the talent-loaded current draft class. He expresses concerns about Najee Harris’s declining efficiency and questions whether free agents like J.K. Dobbins can consistently perform [35:27].

Heath Cummings:
Heath remains optimistic about the surrounding rookie class potentially revitalizing the running back positions but remains hesitant to invest heavily in free agents without substantial upside [34:30].

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5. Rookie Rankings: Unveiling Top Prospects

[43:43] Heath Cummings:
Heath unveils his top six rookies, emphasizing a strategic blend of sure bets and wild cards:

1. Ashton Genti (RB) – A standout performer with a stellar college season, Heath firmly places Genti as the top rookie [43:43].
2. Cam Ward (WR) – Projected to be the first pick in the NFL draft, possibly landing with the Giants [47:02].
3. Jalen McMillan (WR) – Praised for his improvement and potential impact in Pittsburgh’s offense [49:18].
4. Travion Henderson (RB) – Recognized for his potential in both rushing and passing games [46:29].
5. Shador Sanders (QB) – Anticipated to secure a starting role in Super Flex leagues [46:29].
6. Luther Burden (WR) – Highlighted for his versatility and explosive play potential [45:41].

Jacob Gibbs:
Jacob expresses enthusiasm for Luther Burden, admiring his dual-threat capability as a cornerback and wide receiver [49:18]. He also praises Jalen McMillan's growth and potential to coexist with key players like Chris Godwin [49:46].

Heath Cummings:
Heath underscores the significance of the current draft class, suggesting that "half of the first round of rookie drafts might be running backs” [49:46]. He draws parallels to past drafts, emphasizing the long-term impacts on dynasty teams [43:43].

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6. Strategy Insights and Final Thoughts

[50:07] Heath Cummings:
Heath wraps up the discussion by reflecting on the depth and talent of the current rookie class, encouraging managers to capitalize on the abundance of high-potential players [50:07]. He emphasizes the importance of draft capital and long-term planning, citing historical precedents like Jonathan Taylor and Clyde Edwards-Helaire [43:43].

Jacob Gibbs:
Jacob concurs, highlighting the unique opportunities presented by the rookie influx and the necessity for managers to remain adaptable and forward-thinking in their dynasty strategies [50:21].

Heath Cummings:
In conclusion, Heath reinforces the value of the insights shared, urging listeners to stay proactive in their roster management and leverage the fresh talent entering the league [50:38].

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Key Takeaways

• Travis Kelsey's Risk vs. Reward: While Kelsey's recent performances suggest potential for a rebound, his age and injury history make him a high-risk trade candidate.

• Quarterback Stability Remains Elusive: The future of quarterbacks like Matthew Stafford and Aaron Rodgers introduces uncertainty in dynasty leagues, necessitating careful evaluation of their long-term viability.

• Wide Receiver Veterans Face Uncertainty: Players like Amari Cooper show potential for resurgence, but their age and team dynamics require cautious investment.

• Rookie Class Booms with Potential: The 2025 draft class presents a wealth of talent, particularly in running backs and wide receivers, offering dynasty managers numerous strategic opportunities.

• Free Agents Carry High Risk: Veteran free agents, especially running backs, pose significant risks without guaranteed upside, urging managers to prioritize rookies and high-potential draft picks instead.

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Notable Quotes:

• Jacob Gibbs on Travis Kelsey:
  “He’s definitely playing this year. I probably undervalued him a little bit just thinking about last year for fantasy football purposes” [06:41].

• Heath Cummings on Rookies:
  “Like this is flashbacks of the Jonathan Taylor situation for me. We all thought Jonathan Taylor had the potential to be a generational running back.” [43:43]

• Jacob Gibbs on Luther Burden:
  “He could be the best. Yes, he looks different. He looks like that type of a mover. Like different like neighbors, Jefferson kind of Jamar Chase kind of guys.” [45:41]

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This episode offers a comprehensive analysis for fantasy football enthusiasts, blending expert opinions with strategic insights to navigate the complexities of dynasty leagues. Whether you're contemplating trade maneuvers, evaluating free agents, or scouting emerging rookies, the discussions between Heath Cummings and Jacob Gibbs provide invaluable guidance to dominate your fantasy league in 2025.

Transcript

[Heath Cummings]

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[Jacob Gibbs]

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[Heath Cummings]

Welcome to fantasy football today Dynasty. I am your host Heath Cummings. And if you're here on YouTube, look who's here with me. It's Jacob Gibbs. He's back. Gibbs, so good to talk to you again.

[Unknown Speaker]

Yeah, yeah, always, always great to hop on fft Dynasty. Thanks for having me on. I've been, you know, a little bit unplugged from the online world lately. This is, I think, my first podcast of 2025. So grateful to Heath for dragging me back into it and excited to talk some football.

[Heath Cummings]

We are going to make it a great one. It's been a while since I've talked to Jacob Gibbs. It's been a while since, since we've kind of talked about the news, like all the, all the rumors and things that are going on in the NFL world. We've been focusing on rookies, we've been focusing on mock drafts. We've been focusing on other things. And so I just want to kind of take today's show. We're going to talk about some of the trade candidates. We're going to talk about some of the potential free agents. We're going to talk about Travis Kelsey here in just a moment. Just talk about some of the more recent happenings and the impact they have in the Dynasty world. And then also I will be at the end of the show unveiling my top six rookies. Gibbs said to me before the show, I will talk to you about anything but rookies. Fair. It's still too early, but I've got a top 12 that is out at CBS fantasy. I'm going to give you the top six. You got to go click on the article to get 7 through 12. That's the way this thing works, right? Let's start as we always do with three questions for our guest Jacob Travis Kelsey is back. If you're a true contender, how many tight ends would you rather have on your Dynasty roster?

[Unknown Speaker]

Yeah, I think it's a good thought exercise because I I checked KTC and keep trade cuts value has Travis Kelsey all the way down and tied in 23 in terms of yeah like overall perceived value consensus which was yeah, that's wild. I didn't realize it had dropped that low, especially with the news that he's going to be back. But it's I think it makes some sense after digging into it and like doing this exercise. Thinking about your question like the for sure names for a contender were Brock Bowers, Trey McBride, Sam Laporta, George Kittle, TJ Hawkinson, David and Joku and Tucker Kraft. And then I got like into maybes and there's a lot honestly like the guys that I put in as like firm, you know, maybes or probably I guess would be like John who Smith, Mark Andrews, Jake Ferguson and Dalton K. And just like man that's we haven't even mentioned these rookies. If some of these rookies landed good spots, there's some really intriguing rookies. It seems like there's, there's just a lot at the Titan position that I I feel much better about long term and it wouldn't surprise me if these guys outscored Kelsey even next year. I'm really curious to get your I've got some statistical stuff to throw at you, but just first I'm curious to get your take on as as a guy who watched the Chiefs all the time. Like I feel like Rashi Rice being put back into his offense is going to mostly negatively impact Kelsey, but I could be wrong on that. Maybe it's worthy. What how do you think this all set us out?

[Heath Cummings]

Well, I think that the the key point that we still don't know like that 23 I'm assuming probably isn't that updated with the news of Kelsey saying he's coming back or we're still pricing in some risk that he might just retire. We still have some unknowns though. We don't know, like when is Rice going to be 100% and is he exactly the same guy as he was at the beginning of last year? We don't know how many games Brushy Rice is going to play this year. Is he going to be facing a suspension? If you're telling me it's 17 games with rice, Kelsey and Worthy, then yeah, I think Kelsey's probably more of a low end, top 12 tight end and redraft, which probably puts him outside of the top 15 in dynasty. Right now I have Kelsey at 10th in my dynasty rankings with the idea that he's definitely playing this year. I, I probably undervalued him a little bit just thinking about last year for fantasy football purposes because he did produce basically as a borderline top five tight end while scoring three touchdowns. I think it's really interesting that he scored like a point and a half more per game than laporta and Andrews and both of those guys scored a lot more touchdowns than Kelsey did. And we all think that touchdowns are about the least predictive part of fantasy football. And so I, I think there's a better bounce back chance for Kelsey next year than most people seem to think that there is. But also there's a significant risk. I mean, he's one injury away from having zero value. And if he takes another step back last year, which a lot of times players his age, when they start dropping off, I always say if a guy shows you he's falling off at 30 or 31 or 32, believe him. Well, Kelsey's older than any of those numbers, so I, I do think as a true contender, there's not any of the names that you put ahead of him. Except for maybe Tucker Craft. Just because like I, I love the exciting stuff we've seen from Tucker Craft, I, I have a hard time projecting increased volume for anyone in Matt LaFleur's offense.

[Unknown Speaker]

He's.

[Heath Cummings]

It seems to be by design that nobody catches more than like 60 passes in that offense. And if he's gonna be a 60 catch, 750 yard guy, it's hard to get too excited about a guy like that as a contender. But all the other names I would have. You said Najoku, right? Yeah. So I like all the other names. I would have a height of them in my regular Dynasty rankings. I do have Kincaid ahead of him. If I was a true contender, I don't think I could Say that I would rather have Kincaid because, yeah, I mean, shoot, what's his dynasty value? If he starts off the first month of next year, what he's been so far in his career, people are going to stop believing in any hope for him to improve. So there's a lot of risk with Kincaid as well. Let's get to question number two. And I worded it terribly and so Jacob didn't understand it and so I'm not going to word it as terribly when I say it on air, but there's some rumors that Matthew Stafford may not be on the Rams anymore. Maybe a Raider, maybe a Giant. And there's been some talk that Aaron Rodgers could be the quarterback to replace him, I guess. Are you worried at all about Puka? Nakua 1, losing Stafford 2, with the possibility that Rogers shows up, brings Adams with him and all of a sudden Puka is only seeing seven or eight targets a game, I think.

[Unknown Speaker]

So it's not a long term worry for sure. Like Puka is, I think, who we've seen him be, which is just a phenomenal player who can win in all facets of the game and has really improved from year one to year two. And I think it's fair to expect him to continue to improve. But I, I do think it could be a short term, a short term concern. I do think that playing with Stafford really has helped him. And you know, we saw Gary Wilson's target scale back a little bit with Adams coming to town there. But I just, I just wanted to just kind of provide a frame of reference for people who might be concerned about Pukin. It's just like, it's so insane what we've seen him do. Through his first 28 games, he's averaged 2.9 yards per run. And for context on that, through an initial 28 career games, that blows any other receiver out of the water like Justin Jefferson. AJ Brown and Odell Beckham are the only other guys above 2.5. And the highest of that group is Jefferson at 2.68. Pukas is 2.9. It's really, really insane what we've seen him do. And that is that is though boosted by target volume. So if you look at the other highest players on that list, the highest target per run rate is 27. Most of these guys fall in the 23 to 27 range because rookies generally, it takes time for them to establish himself as a dominant target. Puka's target per route run rate through his first two seasons is 31%, which.

[Heath Cummings]

Is elite, not just for a young guy, but for anybody.

[Unknown Speaker]

For anybody. Yeah, he had a 38% target per run rate last year which blew any previous high single season number out of the water. The Next highest is 36%. That was Tyreek Hill two years ago. The next highest behind that was Cooper Cup's big season at 33.4% because was 38% last year. Right. So I bring that point in because yes, Matthew Stafford influences that for sure. But I do want to contextualize that by saying that it's not like Puka hasn't had target competition. Cooper cup say what you will about his decline, he has been around over the last couple of years and even with cup on the field over the past two years on those specific splits, Puka's target Bravo Knight is still 30.7% compared to 33% with cup off the field. So I think he is who he is. He's really truly this good talent wise and if you're content like betting on that talent then I don't think you worry at all about the short term.

[Heath Cummings]

But one it's funny because I saw somebody tweet and I'm doing this again not giving people credit for tweets but if Stafford goes to the Raiders is brock Bowers the 101 and FFPC and my thought actually had been if Stafford goes to the Giants is the number one wide receiver in Redraft and Dynasty. Some things are going to change over the next few months and we're going to kind of speculate on how those things could change. One more question for Gibbs before we take a break and then ask him some more questions. If Jaden Daniels gets another good wide receiver, is he the consensus QB1 in Dynasty?

[Unknown Speaker]

I think that his perceived value might move that high. It feels very risky to invest in him at that level. Like I I would rather still invest in Josh Allen at that price. So for me it is Allen just because of sustainability. We've seen it with Alan and I think it is more sustainable going forward. What we just saw from Alan this past year with the with a group of past catchers that he had is so so impressive and I'm extremely excited about Jaden. I absolutely love everything that we saw from him statistically that backs it up and then also on the field it's just obvious. And yeah adding another receiver would be really really exciting but I do worry about the size and the sustainability of him being able to do this year over year.

[Heath Cummings]

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[Unknown Speaker]

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[Heath Cummings]

We've got I've got a handful of guys who we think could get traded and the first one we just kind of talked about in Matthew Stafford. How are you viewing him in terms of next year and beyond? He is at that age where a lot of quarterbacks have fallen off, but we've also seen a couple of guys like Tom Brady and Drew Brees really highly skilled passers be able to perform well past Stafford's age. But I wonder like is it going to matter where he lands or do you just think he's going to be a low end QB2 no matter what. Losing going away from McNay wouldn't matter.

[Unknown Speaker]

I do think going away from McVeigh matters. I I think he's probably going to be low in QB2, but it's going to be really interesting to see how he ages because so much of his game I do think is reliant on the arm talent that he has and if that starts to decline it will just be interesting to see how that goes. But at the same time like he what the arm talent is really important for Stafford but what like propels him above into this higher level that I I don't even know if people really realize how good he is is his ability to do all the other little things. All the ability to manipulate defense. Ben Gretch our buddy Ben just posted a sub stack where he was just like just Gushing about Stafford and how great he is and how he impacts receivers because of these little things. And it's throwing with anticipation, it's ball placement, the ability to manipulate defense and like keep his wide receiver one fed week after week. Even when the opposing defenses know that, that, you know, the game plan is all about stopping Cooper cup or Calvin Johnson. He keeps them fed. And I think that all comes down to the IQ that Stafford has and his ability to, you make defenses think he's doing things and just control all of the space on the field. So I, I think there's hope that even if the arm talent did decline, he would still be able to, you know, be a relevant guy for, for some time. But yeah, for fantasy, it's, I don't think it's going to change too much, but going away from McVeigh is a big deal like that. That offense is, is a machine.

[Heath Cummings]

I'm going to combine a potential trade cut candidate with a guy who's already there, a free agent, and that is Kirk Cousins and Aaron Rodgers, two guys that I've got pretty significantly less valuable than Stafford in my dynasty quarterback rankings in my trade charts. Do you have any faith in either one of these guys? I kind of think that I almost have more hope that Cousins just wasn't fully recovered last year and can get back to being Cousins. Whereas I just feel like Rogers might be washed.

[Unknown Speaker]

Yeah, that, that's basically where I'm at. I, I don't, I don't even know if I would say it's hope. I, I just like love Cousins and, and would love for that to be the case, but I really feel optimistic about it at all. And Rogers? Yeah, I don't know, man. Like, I, I, I did some research this past off season on how unprecedented it would be for Rogers to be relevant at this point in his career. There really are only two guys who have ever done it. It's Breeze and Brady. We've seen so many instances of guys dropping off at that age Cliff where he's at. And then when you throw in the injury as well, it's just like, is it any surprise at all what we saw last year? Is there any reason to believe that it's going to change? If The Rams and McVay truly do believe in him and choose him, that would be enough for me to, you know, sure be like a neutral with him, but otherwise I'm, I'm not neutral. I'm, I'm kind of assuming it's over.

[Heath Cummings]

We got a couple wide receivers. We, we knew it Was. It was made obvious early in the off season that Debo Samuel was a trade candidate. The 49ers were way open to that just this week. We also hear that they're listening to calls for Brandon iuk. I. I think I might be lower than consensus and dynasty on both of these guys. I've. I've always been lower on iuk and I think it could be that I've missed on the talent evaluation. He's awesome. I just didn't think he was awesome enough to Overcome the crowded 49ers room and the lack of pass volume in that offense. And really, except for one year in terms of actual fantasy production, that's been true. Now he's coming off of the major injury. We have lots of question marks about who is or is not going to be on this 49ers team. I don't have Brandon Aiuk or Debo Samuel currently in my top 36 dynasty. Wide receivers. Iuk 27 in its prime. Debo 29 probably leaving his prime. I'm going to just go out on a limb and assume you're much more optimistic about IUK than you are Debo.

[Unknown Speaker]

Yeah. You said you don't have Ayuk in your. In your top 36, right. For the dynasty. That is. I think that's shocking to me. I haven't thought about rankings. I'm gonna go see where he's at with KTC.

[Heath Cummings]

I'm guess he's. I'm gonna guess he is 25.

[Unknown Speaker]

Yeah, that sounds about right. I think I would have him in my top 24, but it's. There's a lot of receivers to like. So that might be outside of the top 36. Is interesting. Debo. I'm pretty much all the way out on. The only reason I would not be is because at several points in his career, Debo Samu has looked like a true outlier from just physical standpoint. He's just. He's so like. I think it's within reason that he could get himself back to that. Like, I don't want to doubt the guy because he's insane, but yeah, everything we saw this past year is really bad. Like he often didn't look like himself and then analytically it's just terrible. Like on I've got a stat that I made up using fantasy points data and it is yards per target on. On target throws of 10 or more air yards. So on throws that were thrown down the field and were on target, how did receivers perform? And Debo was dead last in this out of like 60 plus receivers. And that didn't surprise me at all to see that that's, you know, his game has always been more catch and run, of course, but like it just, it feels so clear that he has declined. And so unless he changes something drastically, it seems like, no, I want to be out on that. Ayuk does have some. Still, some, some data points are encouraging him from this past year. Of course, the year before that was insanely optimistic, but this past year he ranked highest among any receiver with 200 or more routes in average separation score. This is again fantasy points data. And so I think there's still reason to believe that he is that good from a talent standpoint. But I, I can get behind what you're saying with the landing spot. If he's still in San Francisco, I would have him higher than you do. KTC has a wide receiver, 32 for reference.

[Heath Cummings]

Okay.

[Unknown Speaker]

You're not that far off. It makes sense. I think that people are dropping on him. The thing with Ayuk is I do think he, it's, it's. You're, you're playing with a pretty, a pretty thin framework for fantasy success because of the type of role that he fills. I think Calvin really maybe is a good corollary. Like if, if it's not a good setup for Calvin Ridley because of the role that he's playing, it's going to be hard for him to turn in fantasy relevant numbers. Whereas like Terry McLaurin had always kind of been that guy and then when you saw him used in a different way this past year where he's getting more short looks and he has a quarterback who can deliver him consistently on target throws, he can be relevant. But other than that, McLaurin, even though he's extremely talented at several years where he was a disappointment and I think that's kind of where we could be with iuk, it's you. Because he's winning down the field and being used as a true X receiver to free things up for the rest of the offense. So often it's not always going to lead to targets, you know, especially if he's in a position where the team, you know, doesn't have a lot of other options. So the defense is completely prioritizing him. So it would. Yeah, I think this makes sense to be pretty, to be pretty nervous about Ayuk.

[Heath Cummings]

The last name I have on the list, I'd seen every. A lot of people just kind of cross him off of their potential free agent list. T. Higgins, he got, he's going to get the franchise tag. I'm not entirely sure that means the Bengals are going to keep him. It just means they're going to control where he goes. Right. Like it is still possible that they, they've said they want to make Jamar Chase the highest paid non quarterback in the NFL, which rightfully so. They've got some other guys like Trey Hendrickson they need to figure out what they're going to do with and so I still think it's possible that T. Higgins could be moved. We're hopeful that he stays in Cincinnati with Chase with Burrow, as opposed to something like going and being the number one wide receiver for Drake May in New England. Right.

[Unknown Speaker]

I mean, I'm a huge Drake May, Stan, so I would love that. But yeah, for the overall like football environment, it's best if he's there. Cincinnati's passing offense is just so awesome when him and Jamar are both healthy and Joe Burrow's healthy. So Cincinnati's pass success rate when Higgins was on the field was only behind the Lions last year. Their EPA per pass play was only behind the Lions and the Ravens. When Higgins is on the field, when he was off the field, it drops to like middle of the pack. And then if you look at like Jamar Chase's numbers, they were actually slightly better when Higgins was on the field in terms of yards and fantasy points per outrun, which is pretty unusual just because typically when a wide receiver of Higgins caliber comes off the field, the other guy sees a big increase in targets. But Higgins was winning so consistently and it really unlocks things for Chase. Defenses can't only focus on him and it elevates the whole offense. So the EPA stuff that I told you like that basically is just telling you, you know, the T. Higgins scored 10 touchdowns in 12 games and that helps the offense. But another way to look at it is through the fantasy points data lens, which does point towards him winning consistently and in a variety of ways, which was cool. They, they used him in a lot more types of ways than they have in the past when he's been typically just kind of a downfield dominant X receiver. So he was fourth in the NFL in win rate on slant routes and he was sixth in the NFL and win rate on hitch routes, which is, that's his game normally. And then he had the highest win rate in the NFL on post routes. Those are all really cool, like wide receiver. One kind of things where I do think he could succeed in New England or somewhere like that if he were the wide receiver one somewhere else. But it just goes to show like how, how good he is. I do want people to, to appreciate how good he is as a player. He's not just the contested catch guy like he's, he's been somebody even dating back to Clemson where he's been able to produce on a per route basis at a really, really elite level. He's kind of the, the archetype of guy that I was talking about with IUK or Calvin Ridley where they're winning down the field and it's like unless they're Mike Evans, it's really hard for them to be fantasy relevant. And Higgins has been that guy when he's been healthy, he really is like at the very top of that tier. He's really good.

[Heath Cummings]

Higgins is my wide receiver 15 in dynasty. We'll just be 26 years old at the start of the season. I'm mostly expecting he'll stay in Cincinnati. It might take a ding if he ends up getting traded somewhere else, but he's definitely a top 20 dynasty wide receiver for me. Let's transition over to the free agents. I've got three quarterbacks here that I think are almost impossible to rank for dynasty purposes right now. They're guys that you could make a wager on and try to trade a second round pick in your super flex league and maybe they sign a two year deal or a three year deal and all of a sudden you've got a starting quarterback. That always costs a first. There are also guys that like by the middle of next year we may just be done with as starters. They are Sam Darnold, who finished last year as QB9 per game. But you put the big old gigantic asterisk next to it because he had a fantastic offense. Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison. And then there's the two guys who shared the job in Pittsburgh last year. Justin Fields, who we all like more in fantasy than we do in real life. And Russell Wilson, who everybody seems to hate more than what his actual end of year fantasy points per game ends up being. He was a mid QB2 last year. He was a borderline QB1 the year before. How? Just at the very top order of preference today for rostering one of these three, these three quarterbacks, how would you rank them?

[Unknown Speaker]

Definitely Darnold for me. I just checked KTC. They have Darnold at QB25 and perceived consensus value right now, which I actually, when I saw that I was like, I think I would be a little bit higher than that. But then the guys immediately behind him are Anthony Richardson and Jackson Dart, who I would rather have both of them. Justin Fields is next among these guys we've looked at and we're talking about here. He's QB28, Derek Carr, QB33, Russell Wilson, QB34. I think that's about right.

[Heath Cummings]

So I don't have the rookies in my rankings yet. You mentioned Jackson Dark, so I know the rookies are in those rankings and I have Anthony Richardson quite a bit higher than that. But I've got Darnold at QB22. I've got Fields at QB25. I've got Wilson at QB27. It seems to me that it's way more likely that Sam Darnold and Russell Wilson are going to start a majority of next season than Justin Fields. Do you think that's wrong?

[Unknown Speaker]

I do think that that is right. Like that's my read on it too. Like with Fields I was trying to imagine what would be best for him and I think it would be staying in, in Pittsburgh or maybe like going to Indianapolis and if the Richardson thing doesn't work out there, then they plug him in. Right? Yeah, I don't, I don't know. I was kind of surprised to see him this high in KTC's rankings. I guess it's just because he does bring the rushing upside, you know what I mean? So there's such a disconnect between like real life and fantasy there. But yeah, I, I, it does feel like the NFL mostly does not view him as a starting QB at this point.

[Heath Cummings]

Right. And so I, I think the way I would, I don't put together separate lists of rankings for 1 QB and Super Flex leagues. Even though I know while everybody that's starting a new league right now seems to be starting a super flex league, I think there are still actually more 1 QB leagues out there than there are super flex. And so I just try to kind of blend them. In a one quarterback league, I think Fields would be my favorite because floor doesn't really matter. Sure. In a super flex league Fields is definitely third and probably a distant third because I think it's much more likely that either Darnold or Wilson can be a QB2. Do you. I have pretty serious concerns. Like I feel like we know what Russell Wilson is now. He's, he's a QB2 and any coach that brings Russell Wilson is knows what if the Steelers bring him back? They know what he is. They know how to use him. That's what he's going to be. Sam Darnold is like a what the same wild card amount of fields, except without quite the same upside due to the rushing. I don't have a great deal of confidence that if Darnold goes really anywhere else, he's going to be any good at all next year.

[Unknown Speaker]

What if he went to the Rams? I don't feel like anybody talks about that because Aaron Rodgers is like the Rams guy right now. But I feel like it could make sense to keep him like in the Shanahan tree. You know, going from Shanahan to Koc and then to McVeigh. I think that would be a good fit for him. Like, I just haven't heard anything about it really.

[Heath Cummings]

I I've heard absolutely nothing about it and I think I would definitely feel more confident in Darnold not being terrible if he went to McVeigh. I'm afraid he's going to go get the most money with the dumbest team and things are going to just completely fall apart. We did have a question from the chat. He's not a free agent. We Talked about the 49ers wide receivers. Mike says, I'm curious if a long term deal for Brock Purdy will bump him up in the rankings at all or if that's already baked into his price a little. And Mike, I want to tell you, you were asking the wrong guy. I am already the high guy on Brock Purdy in Dynasty. I think he is probably my favorite quarterback buy at cost. Jacob's going to tell me if I'm right or not. I'm assuming you're going to tell me that he's somewhere around QB 16 or 17 in the in the rankings you're looking at.

[Unknown Speaker]

They have him at QB14 and the only guy that I would definitely take him ahead of is Kyler Murray. Would you rather have him than Jordan Love or Bo Nicks or Caleb Williams or C.J. stroud?

[Heath Cummings]

I have him ahead of Love. I have him ahead of Nicks. I have him ahead of Stroud. I have Caleb ahead of Purdy.

[Unknown Speaker]

Wow. Okay.

[Heath Cummings]

But again that could change depending on who the 49ers deal. And I think the point does stand. The fact that he's not like the extension does give him a little more safety. There's always going to be more doubts. Maybe not always. Maybe after he gets the contract we stop having these doubts because of his draft pedigree. But I mostly think that like last year was a bit of a down year compared to the years before. But still, if you look at just Brock Purdy's passing efficiency last year, it's still Absolutely insane. He like he his 8.5 yards per attempt last year, he's now thrown 1069 passes in the NFL and he's averaged 8.9 yards per pass attempt. That sure. It's not all Brock Purdy. Some of it's Kyle Shanahan. He's getting ready to sign a long term deal to stay with Kyle Shanahan. I think you can expect he's going to be amongst the league leaders in that statistic which means that he can throw 450, 500 passes and throw for the same number of yards as someone who throws 500. 525. And then the other thing is he has a career 6% passing touchdown rating. Like that's again just insane. That's, that's Patrick Mahomes territory. And so if he's going to be that efficient on the lower volume, I, I mostly just expect that that's going to continue and he's going to be one of the surefire low end QB ones year in and year out. Still just 25 years old. So again if you want to trust my rankings, just go buy Brock Purdy right now because I do think he is one of the cheaper QB ones available. We have some free agent running backs and I'm, I'm honestly afraid for anyone who is a free agent running back right now because this draft class is insanely loaded. I think there are two guys who are going to be top 10 running backs in my dynasty running back rankings immediately. There's another four guys who might be in my top 24 and I don't. I would not be signing a veteran free agent running back if I had any third and fourth round draft picks this year. But those three guys are J.K. dobbins, who I love. Aaron Jones, who looked really good again last year but is too old. And then maybe one of the most hated guys in fantasy football, Naji Harris. Although I anticipate that NFL coaches and general managers like Naji a lot more than fantasy football managers do.

[Unknown Speaker]

Yeah, I'll be really curious to see what happens with Naji, like how, how real life NFL people view him. Last year was bizarre. He like avoided way more tackles than he had previously and I felt like he kind of changed his running style. It seemed like he lost some weight and was like trying to make more explosive plays. But with that he posted the lowest rushing success rate by far of his career, 32%. For comparison, Jalen Warren in the same Backfield was at 43%. And I do think that matters most of the time. To NFL people, it's, it's, it's hard to ever, like, feel like there's anything among these running back stats that really matters that much in terms of signal and how we can expect NFL decision makers to follow it. But I do think success rate is one that I've noticed that it's like running backs who, you know, turn out first downs and positive plays generally get rewarded. And then we see guys who are like Naji, who are doing too much, kind of, like, kind of fit into obscurity. And so it wouldn't surprise me if that's what happens with him. Either way. Yeah, I'm, I'm not feeling overly optimistic. I don't know. I guess if he lands in just a perfect spot, then he'll still be fantasy relevant.

[Heath Cummings]

I think Naji before last year seems to fit really well into that Jamal Williams role in the Ben Johnson offense. Like, let DeAndre Swift be DeAndre Swift and let Naji Harris score 15 touchdowns. But you're, but you're right. If he's gonna focus more on, on dancing and less on picking up the three and a half yards every single time, then he doesn't fit quite as well in that mold. I assume that what you saw from Aaron Jones last year, like, he still looked like he's really good. It's just hard. Like, it's really hard. Maybe you send a second round pick for him and hope that he gets a good landing spot.

[Unknown Speaker]

Yeah, man. Sorry. That just like, I can't. I'm stuck on adding Naji Harris to what we just saw from Chicago last year. That was one of the grossest offices I've watched in so long is like, you know, what would make it better? And Naji Harris, Ben Johnson's truly got to be a wizard to make this work. Aaron Jones, yeah, he was awesome last year. He kind of wore down as the season wore on, but lots of explosive plays, a lot of really good rushing and receiving metrics. I, I love the guy and I think he can be efficient even as part of a, you know, a, A committee, which is probably what's gonna happen here, I would have to think. I don't think anybody's signing up for Bell cowering Jones experience at this point, but I think he could still be fantasy relevant. And then if, you know, the guy he's with goes down, then he might end up being, you know, for a month, like a top 10 type of running back if he's in the right spot. So I think he's somebody you can buy for fantasy super, super cheap. But I'm, you know, he's, he's past 30. He's dead for Dynasty. Right? We know where we're at here.

[Heath Cummings]

J.K. dobbins is actually my highest ranked free agent rookie running back. But again, kind of feels like a Justin Field situation where, man, J.K. dobbins, if he could just play 15 games, I think could be awesome in the right situation. But J.K. dobbins also may not ever be a starting fantasy running back again.

[Unknown Speaker]

Yeah, Dobbins is interesting. He looked so good at the beginning of the year and. But then as I look at his numbers overall from last year, there are definitely some red flags. Like the percentage of his runs that went for positive yardage was the third lowest among 31 qualifiers. But a lot of that can be contextualized by kind of looking at what was happening with that run game with the offensive line. It just wasn't working very well. Overall, I'm pretty excited. He's a lot younger than people realize and he showed really encouraging juice for like his first year back from the injury. So I'm tentatively in on buying him, but I, I really, I think I'm just waiting and seeing with all these running backs, right?

[Heath Cummings]

I mean, you're probably throwing away a late second at, at the most, and then you don't really care if you did. Although there may be a running back. Take him in the late second of this draft that turns into a top 15 running back in the NFL. We get moving to the wide receivers. There's a couple of older guys who were still pretty awesome last year. Devonte Adams and Keenan Allen. I. I made the, the reference to Adams just following Rogers wherever. I can't think of a wide receiver that I wouldn't feel worse about if Adams and Rogers end up in that spot. But do you. Do you think that it looks like Adam still has a lot of juice left or is it just he still has Aaron Rodgers attention?

[Unknown Speaker]

I think it's a little bit of both. Yeah, he had pretty solid numbers with the Jets. 2.3 yards per hour run with the jets, which is good. Solid separation score with the jets would have ranked in the same vicinity as like Garrett Wilson, Tyreek Hill, Calvin Ridley over the course of the full season. So that was good to see because his early season underlying metrics with the Raiders were absolutely horrible. And I was wondering if maybe he was just watched, but I think it was maybe just the dysfunction of what was going on there. So there's probably still some tread on his tires and if he Ends up in the right spot. Then I think. I don't think it was just Rogers. I mean, we've seen this guy be historically good, so I think it's. It's totally fair to believe that his age window could extend beyond what we see most of the time. A wide receiver.

[Heath Cummings]

Do you strongly prefer Adams over Keenan Allen?

[Unknown Speaker]

I do, yeah.

[Heath Cummings]

Okay, that's. Chris Godwin is not as old as those guys, but coming off of a second major leg injury in the last four years we saw a couple of years ago, that first year back, really almost the first three quarters of the year was really negatively impacted by the injury, it seemed, in terms of actual production. And I just wonder like, again, Godwin kind of like ayuk and that.

[Jacob Gibbs]

I don't.

[Heath Cummings]

Nobody's gonna debate how awesome Chris Godwin is, but he's 29 years old. We don't know how good he's going to be the first half of this year. Coming off of that injury. Is he basically in the IUK range in terms of dynasty rankings for you?

[Unknown Speaker]

Comparing those two is breaking my brain because they're like complete opposites. His game is really fantasy friendly. Chris Godwin, right. So like, his per hour data was elite. Last year's production was elite. But I do think so much of that was him benefiting from Liam Cohen's design and him being exactly the player to be plugged into this design. He's really, really good. But like, what he was really good at was catching the ball and breaking tackles, which, you know, can be replicated. But if you do lose a little bit of juice with the injuries and age and stuff like that, then it's like, oh, what do we. What do we really have here? Is it Debo Samuel 2024 season? Like, what, what is this? Over 1/4 of his yards last year came on screens, which was the highest rate in the NFL by a pretty wide margin. If you remove screens, his yard per target rate was not good. It was like the same as demarc, Mario Douglas, and I think with Cohen leaving, I, I am wary of investing in Chris Godwin. I love the guy as a player, but I, I do worry a little bit about where we're at at this point in his career. He's not. It's been a while. It's basically since his early career that he's been able. He's shown us like a consistent ability to win down the field versus man coverage. And so if it, if he's reliant on the offense, like kind of using him in this gimmicky way. We'll see. I do. I mean, Tampa Bay's offense could be good and he could just be healthy and be the same guy or at least 90, 95 of it and still be really good for fantasy. But I. I'm fine missing out on that. Honestly.

[Heath Cummings]

Jalen McMillan was a guy that a lot of people were really excited about when they thought Godwin might leave. And now that they. They haven't agreed to anything yet. The Bucks and Godwin just agreed to push back a deadline so they could try to work out a deal. I'm assuming if they do sign a deal, the McMillan's that dynasty value is going to take a significant hit. Would you be willing to give up a late second for McMillan? Did you see enough from him last year to do that?

[Unknown Speaker]

I don't think. I love that. No. I think just because this, this draft is so intriguing, I guess if it's a future second, then sure. I, I was pretty impressed with what we saw in the second half of McMillan's season last year. I think he really improved as the year went on. He looked kind of lost early on, but I liked him as a prospect. I love what we saw during the preseason and he showed a lot of encouraging signs and he wasn't. He benefited from Godwin being out because the offense shifted into a different direction and passed down the field more often. But he wasn't necessarily like winning in the Godwin role. So I think it's. I think it's possible that all three of them could coexist if Godwin and Evans start to take us, you know, slight step back and he wouldn't necessarily. It's not like, you know, he got plugged into the Godwin role and he started putting up right. A bunch of catch and run stuff, you know.

[Heath Cummings]

No, I think it was more Sterling Shepard in the Godwin role and he was just getting more targets. A couple of guys left. Marquis Brown may not get to free agency because it sounds like the Chiefs want to bring him back, although I'm not sure that does anything for us at all in terms of dynasty value.

[Unknown Speaker]

Yeah.

[Heath Cummings]

Amari Cooper just had one of the worst seasons a wide receiver could have. Partially. It was partially desean Watson's fault. It was partially that he had a wrist injury fault. But regardless of what the circumstances were, it was absolutely atrocious. Do you have any hope for Marquis Brown or Mari Cooper?

[Unknown Speaker]

I didn't see much from Hollywood that was exciting. Really? Yeah. The Chiefs early on seemed like they wanted to get him going in some creative ways. And, and so if they do or if they are intent on bringing him back, that's intriguing. But it would be wait and see for me because so far it's been a while since we've seen anything from him that is, you know, encouraging. Amari Cooper really had a strong 20, 23. Better than people realize, I think because it was masked by just the dysfunction of the offense that year. And that had me pretty bullish on him and his ability to like be good later into his career. And then this past year was terrible, like you alluded to. But he did show up strong in that metric that I mentioned earlier. Yards per target, on. On target throws, there just were very few of those even when he moved to the Bills. I don't know if it was just bad luck on a small sample size with Josh Allen throwing deep to him or what. It was just those two not being on the same page because it was a mid season acquisition. But he didn't get a lot of on target throws down the field. But when he did, he was, he was productive with them. I think there's a chance if I were to bet on one of them, it would definitely be Amari.

[Heath Cummings]

Okay. And the problem with Amari, of course, is that he's gonna be 31 next year.

[Unknown Speaker]

Yeah.

[Heath Cummings]

And so you are betting on a bounce back from an older player. But honestly, he might be somebody that when we get closer to rookie drafts, gets cut. Like, like somebody needs to make room to make their. I, I wouldn't cut him for a third round rookie pick, but I mean in a shallower league you need to make room for that late second, 23 or 24, you're a true contender. Like that might be a guy that ends up on the waiver wire and in that case I'd probably try to pick him up, but it was dreadfully bad. Let's take our second break and when we come back, I will unveil my pre combine. Now the combine started Rookie top six.

[Jacob Gibbs]

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[Unknown Speaker]

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[Heath Cummings]

Okay, so we are back and I I the way I framed the article over at CBS was that there is a sure thing in my top 12 and there is a wild card in my top 12. The sure thing is that Ashton Genti is going to be the 101 regardless of what happens this weekend. He's not even testing regardless, almost certainly of what happens in the NFL draft. And I know people can say, how can you say that draft capital matters so much. And I'll just say like this is flashbacks of the Jonathan Taylor situation for me. We all thought Jonathan Taylor had the potential to be a generational running back. Nobody thought Clyde Edwards was a top three back in the class. And then the Chiefs took Clyde Edwards lair in round one and he went ahead of Jonathan Taylor in rookie drafts. And dynasty teams are still suffering from that. So no, even if some team does something crazy, I still intend, I expect Genti is going to be a top 20 pick in the rookie draft. He's coming off one of the greatest seasons in college football history. He's 21 years old. Draft him at 101. Yes. Even ahead of the quarterbacks. That says a little bit about the quarterbacks, the wild card. And it's a guy I'll talk about that didn't make the top six. Not yet. Is Travis Hunter. If you told me that he was going to play wide receiver full time and just a little bit of corner, then he might be my number two wide receiver. He'd best definitely be in my top five. He said at the combine that he really wants to play both. I, I don't know, Jacob. I just, I don't think most NFL teams are like fun that much. They, they, they like to ruin fun and they're gonna say no, it's too difficult. No, you have to be in this meeting. In this meeting. I'm just really afraid he's not going to get to play enough wide receiver to be as good as he should be in fantasy football.

[Unknown Speaker]

Yeah. I mean getting a true like lockdown top five impact cornerback is so hard to do and so valuable. Whereas on a receiver late, you know, Nico Collins or whatever, you know, like you don't necessarily have to get that guy early. And so I, I do think it's possible that a team is like if he plays receiver, he's just gonna play a bit, you know, like it would, would be pretty unprecedented for him to do both at a bunch. And I do think cornerback makes sense to be the priority. But man, you watch the film on this guy as a receiver and it's like he could be the best. Yes, he looks different. He looks like that type of a mover. Like, different like neighbors, Jefferson kind of Jamar Chase kind of guys. He just moves right past people. He's, he's really, really intriguing. It's gonna be so fun to see what happens with his career.

[Heath Cummings]

Well, and I think the other thing is like Azer made the point yesterday and then quickly argued with himself. He was talking about how much more valuable corner is than wide receiver. And we said, well then why are there like 10 wide receivers paid more than the highest paid corner in the NFL right now? Like the NFL certainly acts like they value high end wide more than high end corners.

[Unknown Speaker]

Yeah, no, that's interesting. I think part of it is there's, I don't know if there's that many cornerbacks that are that level right now. I, I feel like the, the position is sort of falling off.

[Heath Cummings]

I, I think partially. And also how many corner cornerback jerseys do you see out on the streets?

[Unknown Speaker]

Right, that's what I'm saying. Like, I don't know if it's just my bias from growing up with all these really cool cornerbacks, but I feel like that has just taking a step back. I don't know.

[Heath Cummings]

So my 102 is Cam Ward. I'm assuming he's going to be the first pick in the NFL draft. He'll probably go to the Giants. Hopefully he and Malik neighbors fit like perfectly and everything is awesome. I said he'll probably go to the Giants. That this is assuming the Giants are going to trade up for the 101. Maybe they won't. But regardless, Cam Ward is my 102. 103. Is Tet McMillan the best wide receiver in this draft out of Arizona? 104. Travion Henderson out of Ohio State. Really amongst the running backs, I think there's almost two tiers in the first three running backs. I, I like Genty obviously a lot more than anybody else and I like Henderson as a clear 102 in this class. This one could be subject to the NFL sending us a different signal if for some reason he falls behind three or four other running backs. Maybe, maybe I'm wrong, but man, what his potential in the passing game in the open field. Could be a league winner as a rookie. At 105, I've got Shador Sanders. Let's see where he goes. I. I know there's been some talk about him falling, but as a rule, we generally get the top two quarterbacks in the first five picks. And so I, I think Sanders is going to get a chance for a couple of years to be a starter, and in Super Flex, you pretty much have to take that. And at 106, I. This is where it could be just about anybody. But I think Luther Burden, from what I've seen, don't get so caught up in the way that Missouri used him last year because they had some real deficiencies at the quarterback position in terms of they had to kind of gadget some things up for Burden. I think his potential upside is just about as high as anybody's in this class. I've heard some people make the argument for him as the number one wide receiver in my class, so. So my top six are Genty, Ward, McMillan, Henderson, Sanders, and Burden. I told you I wasn't going to make you talk too much. Rookies here, Gibbs. But if you have any thoughts, I'll take them.

[Unknown Speaker]

I love the Burden take. I'm excited. He's one of the guys who's. I haven't got through my wide receiver film yet, and so I'm kind of saving that for last because it's my favorite and I'm really excited to get to him and I'm intrigued by you saying that he can do more than just slot stuff. That is what I was hoping for. His data looks really good, so that's. That's exciting. McMillan seems really, really exciting. Love to see him as the clear one for you. And I'm. I'm curious what the rest of the top 12 looks like, so I have to go check that out.

[Heath Cummings]

I, I think the interesting thing is last year we couldn't hardly get a running back into our top 12. This year, if things fall right, half of the first round of rookie drafts might be running backs. And some of that, I think, is the psychology of people dealing with what happened last year. And some of that is the fact that this is a really fantastic running back class.

[Unknown Speaker]

Yeah, yeah, I heard. I heard Danny Kelly compare Henderson to, like a discount version of Tamir Gibbs, and it's like Yeah, I kind of see that. That's fun.

[Heath Cummings]

Yeah, I, I don't. Yeah, like, I thought that name crossed my mind as I was talking, but.

[Unknown Speaker]

I just don't want to say it.

[Heath Cummings]

Yeah, like, like you could also say that Ashton Genti is the best running back prospect since Saquon Barkley. But why, why do we need do this to these kids? Let's let them play a little bit of football before we start making those types of comparisons. Gibbs, it was great to have you back. It's always awesome to talk to you. Thank you for being here today.

[Unknown Speaker]

Good to be back, man. This is fun.

[Heath Cummings]

Thank you to Thomas. Thank you to everybody who was active in the chat. We will talk to you next year. Paramount Podcasts if you're itching for a fantasy football podcast, but you want to save some time, well, we've got you covered with Fantasy Football Today Express, part of CBS Sports Podcast Network. FFT Express is your 10 minute guide to fantasy glory. We'll tell you what you need to know, which players you need to target, which NFL draft prospects matter, and more. That's Fantasy Football Today Express. Download and follow on Apple Podcasts, Spotify and anywhere podcasts are found.