← Fantasy Football Today
Fantasy Football Today
Unveiling 14 Breakouts for 2025, Plus Big NFL News (04/02 Fantasy Football Podcast)
01:08:55
Loading summary
Transcript284 lines
- [00:02]
Host 1
It's that time of year again. My schedule is packed with bracket busting, three point shooting, non stop basketball action. I don't want to miss a second of it. And I find myself staying up late to catch all the action I can't be dragging the next morning. That's why I go for a five hour energy shot. They're perfect for my days packed with back to back games or when my favorite team is playing late. With over 15 flavors to choose from like watermelon, Tropical Burst, blue, raspberry, peach, mango and more, there's a flavor for everyone on their website. You have the option to build your own 12 pack or 24 pack and have it delivered right to your door. And if you're out and about, you can always pick up a five hour energy shot at your local grocery or convenience store. They're everywhere. Five hour energy keeps me going during the broadcast and the next morning when I need to get myself up and to work. Visit Fiveourenergy.com for great deals and to stock up before the next tip off.
- [01:00]
Host 2
I get those goosebumps every time.
- [01:02]
Host 3
In the Champions League quarterfinals on Paramount.
- [01:04]
Host 4
Plus it's do or die.
- [01:06]
Host 2
Kill or be killed.
- [01:07]
Host 3
Every decisive moment gives you goosebumps.
- [01:10]
Host 5
Arsenal have been ruthless.
- [01:15]
Host 3
It's now or never. Survive and advance in the ultimate club soccer competition.
- [01:20]
Host 5
Real Madrid are through to the quarterfinal. I get those goosebumps every time.
- [01:25]
Host 3
The UEFA Champions League quarterfinal. Stream every match live exclusively on Paramount.
- [01:30]
Host 6
This is Fantasy Football Today from CBS Sports.
- [01:34]
Host 2
What a play.
- [01:35]
Host 5
Can you believe this?
- [01:37]
Host 2
No, I can't.
- [01:38]
Host 3
It's time to dominate your fantasy league.
- [01:41]
Host 4
Off to the races and he stays at his feet.
- [01:43]
Host 5
This is gonna go the distance.
- [01:45]
Host 3
Now here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie and Heath.
- [01:51]
Host 5
We got a fun show for you today. We have some breakout candidates. But also Jamie's back from his little vacation at the Ritz Breakers Hotel in Palm Beach. Welcome back, your highness.
- [02:04]
Host 2
Well, thank you, sir.
- [02:06]
Host 5
Should we feed you grapes during the podcast today?
- [02:10]
Host 2
You know when I called you on the way back from yesterday's quote unquote vacation, you had. You had. Tell me about your lunch.
- [02:21]
Host 5
Yeah, lunch you had.
- [02:23]
Host 2
You had a more fancy lunch than anything I had at the. At the. At the fancy hotel I was at when I had a granola bar one day and a little bowl of fruit another day.
- [02:33]
Host 3
Yeah.
- [02:34]
Host 5
So Jamie was at the breakers for the owners meetings. The owners were staying at the Breakers. Jamie was not. Very nice hotel. Anyway, we're going to talk about some of the takeaways from that. So we do have a bit of a newsy show, but we got what Jamie heard about Breeze Hall, Rashi Rice, Isaiah Pacheco, Mark Andrews, Kenny Pickett and Trevor Lawrence and more. Plus breakouts from Jamie and Heath and Dave's reaction to it. And guys, I want to start with a Twitter poll. All right, so your breakouts list like Jamie's got Caleb Williams on his, Heath has Caleb Williams and Bo Nix and Jaden Daniels. I'm sure we could all make a breakout case for Drake May. So obviously Jaden Daniels is the best sophomore quarterback. I didn't include JJ McCarthy on this list, but let's go ahead and show this Twitter poll here. X Pole 6 point per passing touchdown league which quarterback are you drafting for your fantasy team? I was a little surprised by the results. Caleb Williams is currently edging out Bo Nicks in first place. Caleb Williams has 40% of the vote, Bo Nicks 37% and Drake may about 23%. So I just use those three second year quarterbacks. Who do you want in a six point per passing touchdown league? Bonix, Caleb Williams or Drake May? Right now the Results are Caleb 1, Bonix 2 and Drake May in a pretty distant third. Heath, how would you have voted here?
- [03:53]
Host 3
I would probably. I mean I would say Bonix. I, I understand leaning on the pedigree of Caleb Williams and the fact that he seemingly just got an enormous upgrade in terms of the coaching staff. And I wouldn't argue too hard against it. I certainly thought going into last year that Caleb Williams had a lot more upside than Bo Nixon. But you know how my process works. Phoenix was a lot better than K. Like Caleb Williams could improve 15 in his fantasy production this coming season and still not be as good as Bo Nix was. And Bo Nicks can certainly improve as well.
- [04:27]
Host 5
Caleb Williams was the number 22 quarterback per game. Bo Nix was the number 9 quarterback per game. If you remove week 18 for Bo Nix where he scored 4111 half points against Chiefs backups, he would have been QB 10 per game. So still like it was. It was a really impressive game. It boosted his numbers but he still was a top 10 quarterback per game. Even without week 18. Drake May was. You can't. Yeah, it's hard to say with him because he was QB 28 per game but he had three or he had four games where he left with an injury or barely played. So it was kind of tougher to say with him. Dave, how would you have voted in this poll?
- [05:06]
Host 4
I would have voted for Caleb. Bonix would have been second, Drake May would have been third. And it's all about well, do you take, do you take what Bonix did and just assume that he's going to be about as good again? And then if you do that with Dre, with Bo Nix and you should probably do that with Caleb Williams and then you get, you know, where he's at, which is Bo Nix, he's proven that he can do this and, and so you'll take him first. But with Caleb, the biggest issues that he had involved play calling slash play design and offensive line woes. They've already fixed 3/5 of that offensive line in Chicago and I, at bare minimum the play design should be much better under Ben Johnson. Whether Ben Johnson can evolve Caleb Williams in one off season from, you know, holding the ball too long, trying to play Superman too often into a refined quarterback that'll take the easy throws and then still make big plays when those opportunities present itself. That remains to be seen. I'm, I'm banking on the upside for Caleb. That's why I'll take him first. We're also not talking about one of your first six or seven picks on draft day but Bonix is still a really good option if you don't want Caleb Williams or if you miss on Caleb Williams knowing that he should still be in that 22 p p I did it again. 22 or more fantasy point per game range.
- [06:31]
Host 5
Jamie, how would you have voted in this poll?
- [06:34]
Host 2
Same same way as Dave, I think you look at, you know, all three of these guys have gotten an upgrade in some way shape or form. You know, Williams and may have gotten the biggest upgrades. You know, Nick's getting Evan Ingram but Williams as Dave alluded to, you know, play caller and an offensive line, you know, there's still probably the opportunity to get another, you know, especially if Keenan Allen doesn't return as expected. Drake may like Caller as well new weapon as well. They're clearly not done also. So you're hoping that the upgrades for Williams and may close the gap from where Knicks was last year by comparison to those guys. I think the nice part about all three of these quarterbacks is you could probably take two of them and the best pairing would probably be to take one of the two guys who struggled with Bo Nix. You know, so if you believe that Knicks can sort of play at the same level, then you take him as sort of your okay, he's my ball back option. Those other guys, if they take the leaps that they could potentially get to, it might be a little bit better than what Certainly. Certainly how he performed last year. So that's kind of the approach I would take with all three of these quarterbacks, is you probably need to pair them with someone else. Nick's probably the one you don't need to pair with anyone else if you just want to sort of hope that he replicates what he did a year ago. But I think the upside for Williams is a little bit higher. And. And the upside for May, we'll get closer to where Nick's was last year and where. I think Williams gets it.
- [07:55]
Host 5
Yeah. I want to bring in Thomas here because Thomas commented on my Twitter poll and he said he'd take J.J. mcCarthy, which hopefully it was a joke, but.
- [08:02]
Host 2
No, no, he can't. He can't jump on the McCarthy train now. He was all Aaron Rodgers. You. You. You got to let McCarthy play itself out first.
- [08:09]
Host 3
It doesn't matter who the quarterback is for the vi. It doesn't matter who the quarterback is for the Vikings. That's who you want on your fantasy team. That's a pretty good take.
- [08:17]
Host 5
Yeah, he might be the best, but I don't think you could justify drafting him. But I have a question for you, Thomas. I would like to share my screen, but in a. It's a very, like, techno, technologically pathetic thing that I'm going to share here. Can I share a Word document? How would you feel about that as the producer of this?
- [08:37]
Host 4
Oh, man.
- [08:38]
Host 3
I mean, you're already talking about it.
- [08:41]
Host 5
Yeah, sure. Right. I just want to make sure. I'm going to. This is. Can you guys see that? Should I boost it? Should I zoom in a little?
- [08:52]
Host 3
Yeah, you can zoom in on this. This is great work.
- [08:55]
Host 5
All right, so these are 17 game paces.
- [08:58]
Host 2
This is why we win awards.
- [08:59]
Host 5
Yeah. 17 game paces for all four. Oh, wait, Heath, you're muted.
- [09:05]
Host 3
Maybe zoom in just a little bit more.
- [09:07]
Host 5
Zoom in more. Okay, Like. Like a lot more.
- [09:10]
Host 3
Yeah, like twice as much.
- [09:12]
Host 5
How's that?
- [09:13]
Host 2
There you go.
- [09:13]
Host 3
Wow. Wow.
- [09:15]
Host 5
Okay, so these are 17 game paces for the four rookie quarterbacks. Daniels, Williams, May, Nicks. This removes any game that they left with injuries. Two of those for Daniels, three of those for Drake, May, and it didn't include only his starts. So three starts for Drake, May, nothing for Caleb Williams, nothing for Bo Nix. You see the 17 game pace. Caleb Williams is by far the worst. Three of them were on pace for 26 to 29 touchdown passes. Caleb Williams was on pace for 20. He did excel in limiting interceptions, though. You see the rushing totals here. Like, Daniels blows everyone away, but Caleb Williams on pace. Caleb Williams and Bo Nicks all on pace for 81 to 92 rushes. Bonick's 430 yard pace. Caleb Williams 489 yard pace. Drake May 625 yard pace. I would say completely unsustainable yards per carry. He had the highest yards per carry by a quarterback since 2011 when Christian Ponder and Michael Vick both averaged 7.8 yards per carry. Which is maybe, which is what May average there. But I just want everybody to kind of take a look at what they did. Drake May was almost as prolific of a passer you could say as Jaden Daniels. Same amount of yards, two fewer touchdowns, but a lot of interceptions when you just look at their healthy starts. So hopefully this hilarious Microsoft Word document is actually helpful for people who are, who are watching on YouTube right now.
- [10:41]
Host 3
Well, and the only other thing I want to add is I think when Dave said what Caleb Williams two biggest problems last year were that was letting him off the hook.
- [10:51]
Host 5
Yes.
- [10:52]
Host 3
Like Caleb Williams biggest problems last year in my opinion were the fact that he did exactly what we were worried he was going to do coming out of college which was run around with the ball way too much and try to play hero ball. And then his other problem was that his on target percentage was one of the lowest amongst quarterbacks who threw enough to count like Anthony Richardson. Cooper Rush, Jameis Winston were worse. Aiden O'Connell was worse. Dak Prescott in a few games Bryce Young was worse. But he was not. He was highly inaccurate and often when he was throwing to Roma Dunze and the sacks.
- [11:29]
Host 5
So I wanted to talk about that like I want to talk about Caleb Williams sacks and Drake Mays interceptions. Which one should we start with?
- [11:39]
Host 3
Okay.
- [11:39]
Host 5
Caleb Williams sacks, 28.2% sack per pressure rate that was second worst in the NFL. Only Will Levis was worse. If you look at sack per pressure rate you just go year by year and look at the guys who are have the worst sack per pressure rate. And I'm going to, I'm going to use sack per pressure rate instead of sack per drop back rate. I feel like maybe that gives us a little bit better idea of quarterback versus offensive line. How can you. How good are you at avoiding that pressure? This is a really bad list. This is mostly bad quarterbacks. Not, not exclusively. But I'll give you a little bit of hope for Drake May or for. Sorry For Caleb Williams 28.2% sack per pressure rate as a rookie. Kyler Murray 26.1% he has been so much better in his career since then there was one Russell Wilson. Russell Wilson as a rookie, 29.7% and he got much better. So I can give you those two examples of guys who were really bad as rookies and much, much better throughout their career.
- [12:46]
Host 3
I think that's good. I also think, like, it's worth remembering that those guys, while they've gotten really good at that, are still probably two of the guys that a lot of coaches think hold the ball too long. Like Russell Wilson is still like when you people, he gets blamed for things. It's holding onto the ball too long. Right.
- [13:01]
Host 5
But doesn't that kind of mean that you can hold on to the ball too long and still be a successful quarterback? You just have to get that it is possible. Right, Right.
- [13:08]
Host 2
I think if you, if you believe in Ben Johnson, then you're going to believe in Caleb Williams because this is a guy that passed on jobs last year and had essentially his pick of jobs. I don't know how many, but he definitely had an opportunity to take multiple jobs this year. Jacksonville was certainly in the mix. Chicago's in the mix. I don't remember who else. I think there's one other team. He took this job because of Caleb Williams.
- [13:33]
Host 4
Yeah.
- [13:33]
Host 2
Yeah. So.
- [13:34]
Host 5
Right.
- [13:35]
Host 2
If you believe that he is going to be good at this, then it's going to be because he makes Caleb Williams good.
- [13:43]
Host 5
Let me talk to you about Drake May's interception rate. Drake May had a 3% interception rate, was the seventh worst in the NFL last year. Nobody good was was had a higher interception rate than him. Baker Mayfield and Dak Prescott were close. They were at 2.8%. But in the last 15 years, which rookies had a higher interception rate than Drake May in their rookie seasons? Pass around 15, 15 years, 2010 and on. Geno Smith, DeShawn Kaiser, Christian Ponder, Josh Allen, Justin Fields, Sam Darnold, Blake Bortles, Josh Rosen, Brandon Whedon, Cam Newton. Those are the only quarterbacks who had a higher rookie interception rate in the last 15 years. I ended with Cam Newton, but it's not like he was a great passer in his career. You know, he was obviously great rusher. Josh Allen was in there. He stands out. But again, a pretty bad list. There a big problem for Drake maybe.
- [14:46]
Host 3
I really don't care at all.
- [14:48]
Host 5
No.
- [14:48]
Host 2
Yeah.
- [14:49]
Host 3
I just assume that's going to get better. He was a much more accurate passer than Caleb Williams was. The fact that he had a much higher percentage intercepted doesn't really bother me.
- [14:58]
Host 4
Isn't that letting him off the hook A little bit, yes, he's.
- [15:01]
Host 5
It is.
- [15:02]
Host 3
I'm, I'm more concerned about a quarterback playing hero ball in the pocket and taking too many sacks and developing out of that than I am throwing 27 interceptions his rookie year.
- [15:13]
Host 4
Right. So I would want to go back and look at those interceptions and see how many of them are really on.
- [15:19]
Host 5
Drake compared to eight of 10. I looked at them today. Two of them were drops. One of them, maybe you could argue, I think it was Pop Douglas. He wasn't looking. Maybe it was a route issue, but some really, at least seven, if not eight of ten.
- [15:36]
Host 4
Okay. It's not great, but that's, that's how it goes. Especially in the case of maybe who we knew coming into the year was not a polished product and not a ready to go quarterback. The Patriots knew that and they told us that because they didn't start him right away.
- [15:53]
Host 2
All right.
- [15:54]
Host 3
Also, like seven interceptions last year would have been an exceptionally good interception rate. We're talking about a really small sample size. Taking one interception away changes things drastically.
- [16:06]
Host 5
He, but he. Okay, you're right, he was an interception. He. In his junior year of college, he threw some picks, but Peyton Manning had a four point interception rate in his rookie season as Heath.
- [16:18]
Host 2
I think was the thing with both these guys is they're, they're getting significant coaching upgrades and that this is going to be the, the telling point for both of these quarterbacks for how their career may go. You know, I mean, look at what Trevor Lawrence has gone through, you know, with coaching change, after coaching change, after coaching change for a guy who was considered to be such a high prospect and has just struggled.
- [16:43]
Host 4
Yeah.
- [16:44]
Host 2
And so does getting Ben Johnson and Josh McDaniels and, and what those guys have done with other quarterbacks in their careers, does that help these two guys get to the point where they're hopefully going to get to, you know, and you know, I, I think just to tie it back to what we talk about here, these are not, you know, like Dave said, they're not guys you're taking early in your drafts. These are, these are fallback quarterbacks. These are late round options to an extent. You know, Williams will go ahead of, you know, Drake May and probably Bonix by the time we see what ADP looks like. And so if you're, if you're drafting appropriately, you know, so if you're taking these guys, you're probably taking two quarterbacks, you're hopefully getting somebody that's a little bit more stable. So if they struggle, certainly they struggle early. You know, you have somebody that you can pivot to and and still get you the points that you need.
- [17:32]
Host 4
You also don't have to take two quarterbacks because there will still be some decent quarterbacks on the waiver wire after your draft is that you can go and pick up.
- [17:42]
Host 5
And by the way, last thing and we'll take a break here and get to the rest of the show. There was a quarterback who was who had the third highest sack rate and the hold on loading, loading the. Where is he? Like the 8th highest interception rate in the NFL last year and that was Baker Mayfield. I just want to point out you don't want to be near the top of these lists and he was definitely near the top of the SAC rate list. Not terrible. I mean 2.8% interception rate when I was just telling you Drake Mays was 3%. It's not so good. So just something to think about. Baker does do a lot of things that are pretty dangerous and I think he led the NFL in fumbles last year as well and only lost two of them. All right, let's take a break here. Before we do that, I want to tell you about the with the First Pick podcast. All right? They are doing really cool things right now. So for all of you, you have a favorite football team out there. The with the First Pick podcast. They're releasing full seven round mock drafts for each team. So I think they just released like the Arizona Cardinals. So check and see if your team is, you know, out there right now. You go hear how your team might approach the NFL draft. But this is a great way to get acquainted with the draft prospects and hear from experts in the field. So that's the with the First Pick podcast. Go to CBSSports.com podcasts to see all of our shows. We'll be right back after this.
- [18:59]
Host 6
What's up everyone? It's the counselor of Cash, Siya Najad from the Early Edge, a daily sports betting show powered by Sportsline and CBS Sports. If you're looking for the best bets, picks and analysis for the day in sports, we're your one stop shop. We are locked in with bets every day for the NBA, March Madness, Golf, Soccer and so much more. Download and follow us on Apple Podcasts, Spotify and anywhere podcasts are found. Plus subscribe to the SportsLine YouTube page to watch us live at 10:00am Eastern Time daily. Make sure to turn on those notifications so you don't miss a single pick all season long. Good luck.
- [19:29]
Host 5
If you're itching for a fantasy football podcast, but you want to save some time. Well, we've got you covered with Fantasy Football Today Express, part of CBS Sports Podcast Network. FFT Express is your 10 minute guide to fantasy glory. We'll tell you what you need to know, which players you need to target, which NFL draft prospects matter and more. That's Fantasy Football Today Express, download and follow on Apple, Apple Podcasts, Spotify and anywhere podcasts are found. Yeah, I wanted to start the show with that quarterback conversation because I do think that a lot of people are going to want one of those three quarterbacks as a backup, if not a starter on their team. They have to choose who. So I look forward to having that debate throughout the off season. And things could obviously change after the NFL draft. Now let's get to the news and notes here. Most of this coming from the owner's meetings and a lot of this, you know, Jamie got on his little recorder as well and will be writing about it on the website. But Nick Sirianni did not commit to Dallas Goddard staying on the roster. He said he's on the team for now. So here's 16 games over the last three seasons. Devonte Smith with A.J. brown, but without Dallas Goddard. His I'll give, I guess I should give you his 17 game pace in those 16 games. 94 catches, 1353 yards, 12 touchdowns on 129 targets. His points per game. Devonte Smith, his points per game in those games would have made him wide receiver. Six in non PPR, eight in half PPR, ninth in full PPR last year and even better in 2023. So in conclusion, over the last three seasons, 16 games without Dallas Goddard and with A.J. brown, Devonte Smith has been a top 10 wide receiver. Art Rooney, the owner of the Steelers, he's optimistic about signing Aaron Rodgers. He kind of sounds like it's going to happen. Todd Bowles is hoping.
- [21:21]
Host 2
There was some talk yesterday that they thought it was going to be done.
- [21:24]
Host 5
Yeah. Todd Bowles hoping Chris Godwin is ready for week one. Kyle Shanahan's hand said okay. Kyle Shanahan said Christian McCaffrey is healthy and doing great. You guys feeling that?
- [21:38]
Host 2
Yeah, I mean it's, you know, as you sort of alluded to, I think last week that, you know, did not have surgery on his knee, you know, so that's a, that's a positive. You know, we thought that that might have been the case. Said that he could have played in the playoffs had they made it, you know. So again, Kyle Shanahan said that in week one stick that for what it's worth, based on where he may end up getting drafted, could be one of the best value picks in your league. It's just a matter of like, you know, when we had Dan on and Dan said he's his number two running back right now. People still feel like that. Then you could be in a little bit of trouble if he's, you know, clearly not the same guy. But the way the 49ers are operating right now seems as if they're going back to being all in on McCaffrey, which is a very positive sign.
- [22:25]
Host 5
Okay. Carolina head coach Dave Canales said he thinks Xavier Legate is a number one wide receiver. Yeah, I said you need a number one wide receivers. I think we got that in Xavier and Xavier or whatever he called him. Kevin O'Connell said Jordan Mason will be a 1B in the Minnesota backfield. We're going to talk about Breeze hall in a second, but jets head coach Aaron Gled said he wants to use all three running. Three running backs. So he didn't. It wasn't a great quote in terms of Breeze hall, but we'll talk about that momentarily.
- [22:52]
Host 4
Super. And they've got a running quarterback now too, so that's fun.
- [22:56]
Host 5
Rasheed Rice on track to be ready for training camp. He tore his LCL in week four. The Cardinals signed defensive lineman Calais Campbell to a one year deal. $5.5 million. Denver's Denver's GM said they're going to draft a running back. Very honest assessment there. So I think that's not a surprise. John Harbaugh said he fully expects Mark Andrews to be on this on the team. He's going to be a Raven this season. It seems so. All right, here we go. Let's get a quick reaction from Dave. An 18 game season seems more likely. Give me like a three word reaction.
- [23:31]
Host 4
More. More work for everybody.
- [23:34]
Host 5
Touchbacks will go to the 35 yard line.
- [23:38]
Host 4
Means that DSTS will matter a little bit more, maybe even considerably more.
- [23:43]
Host 5
Replay assists will allow referees to reverse penalties for face masks, tripping horse collars.
- [23:50]
Host 4
Love it. They need this.
- [23:52]
Host 5
Yeah. Each team will be guaranteed a possession in overtime even in the regular season.
- [23:57]
Host 4
Love that too.
- [23:58]
Host 5
The NFL will further discuss. They haven't decided yet. They will further discuss making playoff seating based on record rather than winning the division.
- [24:06]
Host 4
I'm mostly indifferent to that.
- [24:09]
Host 5
I think it's amazing. Teams can wear alternate jerseys now four times a season instead of three.
- [24:13]
Host 4
Wait a minute. Wait a minute. I don't know if I can express myself in just a few Words for that amazing news. Just the ramifications are huge.
- [24:22]
Host 5
16 of 32 NFL teams support banning the tush push and it will be discussed at a later date.
- [24:28]
Host 4
It's a health issue, not a cheating issue.
- [24:32]
Host 5
Okay, Jamie, let's talk about your AFC notes here and what Aaron Glenn said about Breeze Hall. Let's talk about that and start with that. What were your takeaways from what head coach, jets head coach Aaron Glenn said about Breece?
- [24:43]
Host 2
I mean, I hate it. You know, you never want to hear three backs. You know, we get nervous when we hear two backs, you know. So for a guy in Breeze hall who, as we saw two years ago where we learned a little bit, you know, because of the post, ACL looked amazing and came back last year. He was the number two player, not running back. Number two player based on sports average was a bust, you know, struggled mostly second half of the season. His receptions went down when Devonte Adams joined the roster and so the hope would have been okay coming back this season that could be a featured guy. Now Aaron Glenn comes from Detroit. I know his defense coordinator, but they had a very successful tandem as well, awareness. So the fact that he's already looking at it with his coaching staff and saying that not only do they like Braylon Allen, but they also like Isaiah Davis, that we could be looking at all three of these guys getting touches like this is terrifying. If you're going to, you know, buy into Free Paul bouncing back, he should still be a starting fantasy running back. He should still be drafted, I think, as a number two fantasy running back. But you know, for a guy that had, I think just a, a pretty big, you know, pendulum swing of maybe going in mid round two to now, potentially late round three, I could see him anywhere in that range, maybe even around four.
- [26:02]
Host 5
So he. Another, just another note that you had. Andy Reid said that Isaiah Pacheco probably shouldn't have come back. I mean he. Most guys probably haven't come back. But if you know him for a minute, you know he wasn't going to be held back. That was Reed talking about Pacheco returning from the injury and not really playing that well down the stretch. Do you think. How realistic do you think it is that Isaiah Pacheco will end up with a higher ADP than Breeze Hall?
- [26:32]
Host 2
I don't think ADP will be realistic. Would not be surprising if Pacheco is better than hall, but I don't think it's realistic that he will get drafted ahead of all unless we see significant reports and a lot of Traction of Pacheco is back to being Pacheco and the guy that we saw the first two games of the season and the season before is there. And Elijah Mitchell, for example, won't matter. Kareem Hunt won't matter. And that Breeze hall is rotating heavily in practice and whatever with Allen and Davis.
- [27:03]
Host 5
Anybody. Could anybody see that? Can anybody see Pacheco rising above Beast hall or Breeze Hall?
- [27:09]
Host 3
No.
- [27:11]
Host 4
Assuming that Breeze hall is healthy. No.
- [27:14]
Host 2
Okay.
- [27:16]
Host 5
Also, what did Andy Reid say about Elijah Mitchell?
- [27:21]
Host 2
You know, just what you expect about a new player. You know, he's excited about him. The one thing that he did, you know, sort of referenced unsolicited was, you know, what he likes about him as a pass catcher. And so he used the words, you can flex him out and use him in, in the passing game that way. So did they find their new Derek McKinnon, their, their receiving option? You know, he talked about his health, you know, again, unsolicited, saying, you know, when he was healthy in San Francisco, he was really good. So I'm sure they're viewing him as, as a compliment as opposed to replacement for Pacheco, again, based on both comments in regards to his backs. So the, the thing we'll have to figure out is who's the handcuff and who's the number two running back there in Kansas City? Because Kareem Hunt, we know, is a guy that they're familiar with and comfortable with, as we saw last year. But is Mitchell the one that you want to get because of maybe the upside based on age, based on, you know, where he's at in his career comparatively to Kareem Hunt? So it'll be curious to see how these two guys compete with each other, assuming Pacheco is back just, you know, unquestioned as the lead guy.
- [28:18]
Host 4
That's an interesting comment about him as a pass catcher, because even in his big breakout year in 2021, Elijah Mitchell had 20 targets, 19 catches, 137 yards and one touchdown. In the two years since, 12 targets, nine catches, 21 yards, no touchdowns. I'm going to look at what he did in college. Not a great, not like a. An amazing track record of catching the ball in college. So this is something that either Andy Reid is just BSing about or he really sees something there that maybe Mitchell does take a step forward as far as the pass catcher goes. But that would be a little surprising.
- [28:55]
Host 2
I wouldn't go in planning to target him for his reception totals, but it could be something that, again, you know, new coach, new system. Clearly he's coming from a great place, so it's not like he's coming from that team and bad offense. But again, you know, this is now Andy Reid's project to an extent, and we'll see if that helps.
- [29:15]
Host 5
You heard, you heard John Harbaugh talking about Mark Andrews and saying he's working really hard. I do fully expect him to be playing for us next year. He's just too good a player. I just want to throw out a comparison here. Mark Andrews last year averaged 11.1 PPR fantasy points per game. He had in 17 games, only 69 targets and he had 11 touchdowns. So 11.1 fantasy points per game. Does that remind you of any tight end in the last five years?
- [29:48]
Host 3
Eric Ebron. That was 10 years.
- [29:51]
Host 5
I was going. I was going. Robert Tunion. Robert Tunion averaged 11.8 points per game, which is better than Andrew's last year. In 2020, he had 59 targets in 15 games. Andrews had 69 and 17 games. And Tanya also caught 11 touchdowns, 52 catches, 586 yards, 11 touchdowns. Compared to Andrews, 55 catches, 673 yards, 11 touchdowns, 17 games. Like, I can't. I really hope he's not Robert Tuttiette, but we see if he's going to be targeted 69 times in 17 games, that's a guy that could be dropped if he doesn't keep scoring touchdowns at a ridiculous pace.
- [30:30]
Host 2
I mean, there were people considering dropping him in the early part of the season last year. So it's just a matter, I think, of when you're drafting him. You know, so he. If you, if you're reaching for him based on what his resume is, then you're probably going to be somewhat disappointed if that's replica replicated. If you're drafting him at a value because people are concerned and he falls to the right spot. Like, you know, if he's one of the late tight ends, I'll take him all day long.
- [30:55]
Host 4
Isn't this who he kind of is now, though? Because even last. Even in 2023, 6.1 targets per game in 10 games, 13.5 PPR points per game.
- [31:06]
Host 5
I'll take six targets per game, though.
- [31:08]
Host 3
I was going to say, I think this is all a little bit insulting to Mark Andrews, right? Like, Robert Tunion had 14 career catches in two years before he had his 11 touchdown season. If Mark Andrews is Robert, Tanya is. He's not Robert. Tanya.
- [31:22]
Host 5
No, I know that, but he. But he also had 69 targets in 17 games.
- [31:26]
Host 3
He had a down year in terms of target volume, and I think that's concerning for a projection this year. And you don't draft him as a top three tight end like we used to because of that. But he's also an elite tight end who made up for the lack of targets by scoring a bunch of touchdowns.
- [31:44]
Host 5
Yes, he did. All right, Christian Kirk. Let's talk about Christian Kirk, Jamie, and what his head coach, Tamiko Ryan said about him.
- [31:51]
Host 2
Sounds like he's going to be their slot receiver, which is interesting given what they're, you know, depth chart looks like right now. So they're going to add somebody else presumably, but that's what he said, you know, gonna make a lot of plays for us on third down, gonna do it from the slot and going to be a good target for CJ Stroud was very praiseworthy of his speed, you know, so, you know, sees him obviously doing some things. He said, you know, playing in slot, making plays from the slot down the field. So it's definitely a, you know, we talked about devonte Adams, his landing spot. You know, this was a great, you know, scenario for Christian Kirk where he ended up knowing that there's guys hurt. You know, he. I didn't give you the Tank Dell quote, but, you know, he gave the typical player hurt comment about a guy that may not play. I got the same thing from Dave Canalis. I only gave you AFC stuff. You know, you brought up a lot of the NFC stuff already in the news and notes, so I'll give you some different stuff tomorrow. But he did say Canalis also about Jonathan Brooks, you know, like the, he's, he's attacking the, the rehab, you know, strongly. You know, that anytime I hear that, that they're probably not going to see him anytime soon. So with Tank, though not most likely playing a good portion of the 2025 season, if at all, Kirk just, again, could be one of the best value picks that we see. You know, guy that has proven to be a good fantasy receiver on a lower end scale got the opportunity first year in Jacksonville to be, you know, very successful. I think we'll probably be somewhere between that, but I think can be a consistent starter in three receiver leagues by the time the season's over.
- [33:16]
Host 5
All right, and then just give me one more here. You can either talk about the Browns quarterback situation or Trevor Lawrence.
- [33:21]
Host 2
Well, I mean, Trevor Lawrence is just trying to get healthy. You know, Liam Cohen's excited to work with him. I think the Browns situation is very interesting because of where they're picking, you know, so I have the number two overall pick. And it seems like just based on the things you heard coming out of the meetings, that they're probably not taking a quarterback at two. So if they don't take a quarterback at two, you know, at what point do they get back into the draft and take a quarterback? And Stefanski said, you know, we haven't gone through the draft yet, but did speak highly of Kenny Pickett. And so are we going to get to a point in the season, early in the season, you know, where Kenny Pickett is a starter for the Browns and then the trickle down effect of what that means for David Najoku and Jerry Judy, most importantly. But also, does Pickett have an opportunity here to be relevant in super flex leagues and two quarterback leagues and maybe a waiver wire option at some point, you know, for. For one quarterback league? So they've had success with backup quarterbacks, as we know, in the system, you know, so it's hard to just, you know, completely dismiss it. Joe Flacco came off his couch and was great, obviously, Jameis Winston was great. You know, you can sort of compare those two guys to Kenny Pickett and clearly the. Those two guys have much better resumes, fantasy and reality. But Pickett may end up being, you know, someone who matters and, you know, hopefully he's able just to connect with Jerry Judy and David Najoku if he's the starter. So if you're sitting there right now in your dynasty leagues and, you know, shallow formats and Kenny Pickett and super flex or two QB leagues was not available or you want to trade for him, might not be a bad idea to get him, you know, cheap just to see what happens again, you know, these are guys that by a week's injuries, you know, they could certainly matter at some point.
- [34:53]
Host 5
Good stuff. All right. If. For more on Jamie's takeaways from the owner's meetings and his vacation in the sand in the breakers, just read it all on cbsports.com fantasy.
- [35:05]
Host 2
They have wonderful tennis courts at the Breakers.
- [35:09]
Host 5
Oh, do they? I guess I should stay there then.
- [35:12]
Host 2
I still think you probably did more tennis and luxury luxurious things than I did in the two days I was on vacation.
- [35:20]
Host 5
Which was which two days?
- [35:21]
Host 2
Monday. Tuesday.
- [35:22]
Host 5
Yeah, I did play tennis Tuesday night. Monday night? Monday night I played. Yeah. Yep. Yeah. Okay. All right, let's get to some breakouts here. So the, the mutual breakouts that Jamie and Heath both had on their list were Caleb Williams, Ken Walker and Bucky Irving. Ken Walker and Bucky Irving. Heath, what round do you think Walker And Irving should be drafted in.
- [35:46]
Host 3
I think we're probably looking at the round two, three range. I think that it wouldn't be, shouldn't be surprising at all if both these guys go before Breeze Hall. And listen, if the coaching staff keeps talking about Walker like he's kind of the clear starter and Zach Charbonnet is a good complimentary back then maybe Walker goes in the first half around two.
- [36:09]
Host 5
I just don't, I don't think people will do that. Where has he been going in our drafts? I mean, I feel like Walker's probably going to have a late round. 380p. That's just my, my. Dave, you feeling that?
- [36:21]
Host 4
Yeah, I do. Because enough people have been burned by Walker that they're gonna go, I can't, I can't trust this guy. To me, it all comes down to how often he's going to get 15 plus touches per game. That's his magic number. I, I went back and checked this this morning because I knew we were going to talk about past three seasons when he's had 15 or more touches in a game. There's been 30 of them, 16.8 PPR points per game. Awesome. Like, it's, it's not second round worthy. It's close to. Maybe it is second round worthy, but toward the end of the second round. But it's not exactly, you know, dynamo for fantasy, but a very good fantasy average when he doesn't get. There have been 12 games under 15 touches. Some of them are games he's left early. 7.8 PPR points per game. That's cringe. So I, I am hoping that the Seahawks are true to their word, that they want to run the ball more and they want Walker to be the guy who does it. But I also want to see them improve their offensive line and they haven't really done a good job of that this off season. So I'm going to be a little skittish on Walker. As of now, I still have Bruce hall and Kenneth Walker in my rankings.
- [37:29]
Host 2
I, I would take Ken Walker ahead of Breeze Hall. I was doing it before Aaron Glenn's comments. I certainly will do it now after Aaron Glenn's comments. The thing that stands out to me about what Walker did last year the most was his involvement in the passing game. Yeah. And it would not be shocking with Justin Fields at quarterback for the jets and Sam Darnold a quarterback for the Seahawks that Ken Walker has more receptions than Bruce Hall. And no one in a million years would have ever thought that going into last season so now, based on what they both did last year and based on what's the situation at hand for both of them this year, if the receiving totals are even close or in the favor of Ken Walker, he may be significantly better.
- [38:10]
Host 5
And they don't have DK Metcalf. Right. I mean, so that's only a bigger boost to his receiver.
- [38:16]
Host 2
I mean, they do have Cooper Cup.
- [38:18]
Host 5
They do have Cooper Cup. That's true. And then Bucky Irving, I. I mean, I love. He keeps getting drafted in the third round in our drafts. Heath, do you have NFC ADP to reference for these two?
- [38:31]
Host 3
I will shortly. And someone else should talk and then I'll tell you.
- [38:35]
Host 5
All right.
- [38:35]
Host 2
Yeah, I think he's around to pick. I wouldn't be surprised if, you know, the. The hype gets, I don't know, out of control. But, you know, based on what he did last year while. While in the initial phases of when he was breaking out, sharing with Rashad White, and as we saw, as we got to the end of the season, you know, giving him more work and him handling it and handling it well, I mean, the sky's the limit for him, you know, so I know Dan, the last time I was on at least was, you know, concerned about, you know, the. The draft capital when he was selected and, you know, the success rate of those guys. Again, I think we just got to move the goalposts on how running backs are viewed, you know, so if a team doesn't draft you in the first day, and even on day two, I don't think that necessarily means you don't have an opportunity to be successful. It's the same head coach. It's the same coach that was in the building with them. You know, so to Heat's point about when these guys break out and then there's a coaching change, and that's when those guys have failed the James Robinsons of the world. You know, Bucky Irving still on the same, I think, path to, you know, being the guy for Tampa and Rashad White, I know is a factor, but I don't think he's a. Is that much of a speed bump in him having a breakout season.
- [39:46]
Host 4
The most encouraging thing from last year, he only had three games, including the postseason, Adam, where he played at least 60% of the snaps. So we're talking already about a running back who got it done, not with just touchdowns or not with just catches, just efficiency across the board. And if he gets more playing time and more touches and he keeps that efficiency, then what's stopping him from being close to a top five fantasy running back. If he's a tackle breaker, playing behind a good offensive line should be pretty damn good.
- [40:19]
Host 3
Bucky's currently RB. Well, he's currently the 19th pick by ADP at NFC Breeze. Hall is 31st, Ken Walker is 44th.
- [40:30]
Host 5
Wow. Yeah. What's stopping Bucky Irving? He was from weeks 10 through 18. I didn't include. No, I must have included week 14. He played only 16 of the snaps in week 14, but from weeks 10 through 18, he was the number six running back. Per game he averaged 5.8 yards per carry. He was on pace for 51 catches. He was good.
- [40:56]
Host 4
Yeah.
- [40:57]
Host 5
And I don't know what stops him. I guess I would say he's not gonna be the third down back and he's probably not going to, you know, average 5.4 yards per carry. Again, he's small.
- [41:11]
Host 3
There is an offensive coordinator change like the offense could just not be as good.
- [41:16]
Host 5
That's what I'm thinking because I.
- [41:18]
Host 2
But it's an in house guy though. That's the thing. That's encouraging.
- [41:20]
Host 3
That helps.
- [41:21]
Host 4
But yeah, we, we don't know what, what that change does mean. He. You got to be fair to Heath on this. It doesn't mean that it's going to be, you know, a drastic blow up of the offense. And personally I never like it when a new offensive coordinator is using the previous offensive coordinator's playbook. So that I think that's just one of those things that you're gonna have to wait.
- [41:42]
Host 2
I know what you're saying though, Dave. But again he, he was part of those, that planning process.
- [41:47]
Host 5
But didn't the Eagles two years ago when they lost their right. They hired in house.
- [41:53]
Host 4
Awful.
- [41:54]
Host 5
It was a disaster, right? Yeah.
- [41:56]
Host 2
But guys were hurt though. I mean that's. I don't know how much of the, the coordinator change was a factor in the failures. So much. And the play calling. So much.
- [42:05]
Host 5
I don't even know if they were calling plays because. Because I think Sirianni may have been calling.
- [42:09]
Host 3
I mean look at Patrick Mahomes after he lost Eric Bienme.
- [42:13]
Host 5
Maybe he's.
- [42:15]
Host 4
Maybe Matt Naggy effect. Chicagoans will have a chill down their spine with it. Oh look, I mean if. If there is just a philosophical decision amongst the coaches in Tampa that we can't overwork Bucky Irving, then there's, there's a little bit of worry that what if his efficiency takes a step back and that's certainly reasonable to expect after the year he's coming off of it. Was amazing.
- [42:38]
Host 3
I, I think it's worth saying, like, I know Bucky Irving was really good with three running backs touching the football last year, but I don't think the comments of Tampa Bay about their running back usage are that much different than the comments of Aaron Glenn about Breeze Hall's usage. Like, yeah, Bucky Irving is going to be our lead back, Rashad White's going to play a lot and we need to get Sean Tucker out there more like they're both three back systems and all.
- [43:04]
Host 4
That being said, if any one of those running backs on the Bucks or the jets just ends up being head and shoulders better than the others, then you can bet your butt that they'll change that philosophy.
- [43:14]
Host 5
Yeah.
- [43:16]
Host 4
The Bucks did it.
- [43:17]
Host 5
So in the, I'm sorry, in that stretch where Irving was a top six running back per game, his he was on pace for 264 carries and 51 catches, which is probably not going to give you a first round value in all likelihood, but definitely could give you second round value.
- [43:32]
Host 2
I mean, in today's NFL, though, 300 total touches is pretty impressive.
- [43:35]
Host 3
Yep.
- [43:36]
Host 5
In 17 games. Yeah, right. Then 315 total touches. Okay. All right, so those are the mutual guys and why don't we take a break? We'll get back to some more breakouts in a moment. We'll be right back on Fantasy Football Today.
- [43:52]
Host 6
The most original musical ever is now streaming on Paramount.
- [43:55]
Host 3
Plus just giving the people what they want from the director of the Greatest Showman, Better man absolutely sizzles from start to finish.
- [44:04]
Host 2
What are you gonna say?
- [44:05]
Host 5
I want the world to see who I really am.
- [44:07]
Host 6
It's wildly inventive and deliriously entertaining.
- [44:11]
Host 5
No, stop it.
- [44:12]
Host 2
Nothing. It's only the biggest event in children.
- [44:18]
Host 6
Better man now streaming on Paramount plus. Rated R.
- [44:24]
Host 3
Hey, I'm Heath Cummings, host of Fantasy Football Today Dynasty, part of the CBS Sports Podcast Network. Whether you're looking to dominate your Dynasty league or take your startup team to the top, we've got you covered. Want to make the right moves? Turn your roster into a championship contender? Or are you aiming to find that next breakout rookie who will be your league's game changer? FFT Dynasty is here to give you the edge. This offseason will provide you with startup mock drafts to guide you through building your perfect team and dive deep into the 2025 NFL Draft class. To help you identify the next hidden gem that could propel you to fantasy football glory, you will hear from industry pros and familiar voices like Jamie Eisenberg, Dave Richard and Adam Azer from FFT Fantasy Football Today Dynasty is available for free every Tuesday and Friday. Download and follow on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or anywhere podcasts are found.
- [45:20]
Host 5
Let's do some rapid fire breakouts okay Jamie, let's go through your list first you give me like a 20 to 30 second breakout case for each guy. Ready?
- [45:30]
Host 2
Jalen Warren if he's the lead guy for the Steelers he has top 20 upside given the fact of what he showed in 2023, his ability to catch passes out of the backfield. So we have to see the quarterback is but this team I think will still run the ball because of Arthur Smith and the situation is extremely favorable. Mike Tomlin did speak very highly of Kenneth Gainwell. That's a plus for me. For Jalen Warren, Kenneth Gainwell's the number two running backup.
- [45:56]
Host 5
Jordan Addison.
- [45:59]
Host 2
Just the opportunity for him to continue to build on what he's shown each of his first two seasons. He benefits from a lot of single coverage in an offense that's very pass friendly. If JJ McCarthy is as good as advertised based on what Kevin O'Connell has said then Jordan Addison will be one of the best value picks because he will not get drafted as a starter in two receiver leagues but can be an easily can still be a starter in two receiver leagues and an easy starter in three receivers.
- [46:22]
Host 5
Let's see who's next on your breakouts list. It is Roma Dunze and just a huge opportunity.
- [46:28]
Host 2
You know if he's the slot guy has been has been mentioned for Ben Johnson. We know what that means based on what Amanra St. Brown did in Detroit. But I'll go back to the conversation we had with Dan that I don't think it matters if these two guys in terms of DJ Moore and Romo Dunes they are locked into being featured roles in this offense. You know so whether he's the Jameson Williams guy, whether he's the dj the Amara St. Brown guy, you know he's going to get fed targets, he's going to hopefully have a better quarterback as we've talked about and certainly a better system. So for a guy with his pedigree for somebody who'll probably get drafted as a high end number three receiver can easily be a top 20 guy in year two. Ricky Piersol well we saw the last two games hopefully is replicable for the course of the season. You know not to the same you know, extent consistency, you know, week in week out. But Brandon I use coming off of torn ACL no Debo Samuel, Brock Purdy hopefully won't have a holdout, you know, if he's, if he's a starter, first round pick coming out of college, a guy that can get open. You know, I think as we saw as the season went on, you know, what he suffered at the start of, you know, the season end of training camp after getting shot, you know, to come back and let alone play and play successfully, you know, just in this offense, there's immense upside.
- [47:42]
Host 5
And Tucker Kraft, who is on Dave sleepers list.
- [47:45]
Host 2
Yeah, you know, I think sleeper breakout will be kind of determined on, you know, how you view his ADP and you know, what you think the expectations are. But no Christian Watson, which I know that wasn't necessarily his best moments when Watson wasn't there. But lafleur already talked about getting him more involved. We saw last year, you know, right. Hovering around 10 PPR points per game. I think he can get to maybe 11 or 12, you know, so can be, you know, a guy who will be drafted as a low end starter but may, you know, creep into the round the, the top five range, you know, if he gets a couple more touchdown opportunities. So LaFleur did talk about this. I'll give you tomorrow, you know, being a little bit more pass friendly and throwing the ball a little bit more. So that should benefit everybody. He did actually specifically say they wanted to limit Jaden Reed's carries because of fear of injury. So hopefully he touches the ball a little bit more in the passing game too. But I think Tucker Craft, just based on where you'll draft him and the upside that he should be able to give you has the chance to, you know, be a top six or seven tight end as opposed to just maybe a top ten guy.
- [48:41]
Host 5
All right, so Jalen, Warren, Jordan, Addison, Roma, Dunes A Ricky Piersol, Tucker, Kraft, those are Jamie's breakouts that were not shared ones with Heath. Does anybody, Dave Heath, you have anything to say about Warren, Addison, Odunze, Pierce, all Craft.
- [48:56]
Host 4
I'll start by saying that I think in the case of definitely in the case of a Dunes a Pierce on Craft, but potentially in the case of all five, no one's drafting them close to their ceiling and that's what makes them especially appealing because we'll talk about breakouts, you know, like Bucky Irving as a breakout, for example, you're drafting him pretty close to his ceiling as it is. These guys like Warren, if he truly goes the rest of the off season without any additions to the Steelers backfield, we're probably going to draft him close to the 20th running back off the board in full PPR leagues and that might be a little too close to the ceiling. Same thing with Addison who is, you know you'll draft him as a number three receiver. Maybe he could be a top 24 guy. I do love how they changed his role mid year in Minnesota. Made all the difference in the world. But those last three guys, super talented in the case of a dun and Pierce all they can really do a lot. I think we just scratched the surface with them last year. And then Tucker Craft an after catch monster who would benefit by more playing time and more passes in Green Bay. I like all five but those last three very, very appealing for fantasy drafting.
- [50:06]
Host 5
I'm sorry, can you. Which three? Crap.
- [50:10]
Host 4
Kraft.
- [50:15]
Host 5
Have you gone over the tape of Odunze? I just kind of wish there were more highlights, you know I.
- [50:21]
Host 3
Well if Caleb Williams had thrown the ball within, within 10ft of him. Yeah then Roma Dunze would have had more highlights like that. There were. It was incredible and I think I remember watching it happen during the season like some Caleb's best throws seemed to almost exclusively be to DJ Moore and Keenan Allen and he'd throw the ball to Roma Dunze and he'd throw like a 700 mile an hour fastball from six yards away that just like bounced off.
- [50:47]
Host 5
It was.
- [50:48]
Host 3
It was really, really bad. Odunze. I think if you watch the film on Odunze you'll be like man, this guy did not have very many opportunities to make plays last year.
- [50:56]
Host 5
I did watch some going into our episode a few weeks ago we talked about sophomore wide receivers and it felt like down the stretch the whole offense was. So much of the offense was designed for DJ Moore and, and Odunze was just kind of like a spectator. But you know, I'm actually curious to see what his open score was on the ESPN analytics. I'm guessing it probably wasn't that good but let's see because Malik Neighbors was number one, Odunze was 89th out of 100 and oh, this was including tight ends.
- [51:29]
Host 2
I don't know.
- [51:29]
Host 5
Not that, not that good but not that bad, you know, not that bad.
- [51:33]
Host 2
I'm fascinated to see Odunze and Marvin Harrison in year two like those two guys based on what we thought of them coming into the league, what they were, where they were drafted, how they performed. I'll give you some Marvin Harrison stuff tomorrow. But what, what those two can hopefully do in year two.
- [51:49]
Host 5
Jordan Addison on this list he was wide receiver like 24 per game. I think somewhere around there. Yeah, 25 can he be better than that, do you think? What's his upside? Addison?
- [52:05]
Host 2
I mean, barring injury.
- [52:07]
Host 5
Yeah.
- [52:07]
Host 2
So barring a Justin Jefferson injury per game, I don't think significantly better, but I don't think anybody's drafting him that high.
- [52:15]
Host 5
Yeah, probably not. 14.2 PPR fantasy points per game. All right, Heath, let's get to your breakout there, there.
- [52:22]
Host 2
I don't know if I'm missing anybody, but there are three guys I think that kind of fall in a very category and you'll understand why. It's devonte Smith, Jalen Waddle and Jordan Addison. Number two guys, but have really never fulfilled their potential. Consistently.
- [52:41]
Host 5
Consistently. Right. Yeah, yeah, yeah.
- [52:44]
Host 4
All it takes is for Addison to not be a red zone monster and he tanks.
- [52:51]
Host 5
Right. He's good. I feel like he's a good player though and. Right. And the. All of them. Right.
- [52:56]
Host 2
Yeah.
- [52:56]
Host 5
Good players. They're first round picks. They haven't really had the opportunity.
- [53:01]
Host 2
Like you, you brought up one scenario. Dallas Goddard leaves Devonte Smith becomes a top 10 option, you know, in, in all formats. Right. Based on his 16 game pace. So you'll probably draft him, let's say as a top 20 receiver. I know I'll rank him as a top 20 receiver if Goddard's gone. If Tyree Kill is traded. Right. Which is still potential.
- [53:19]
Host 5
Yeah.
- [53:20]
Host 2
Jalen Waddle, we had the, the first mock draft we did, remember. Everybody was, oh my Dave took Jalen Waddle. He was like, oh my God, I can't believe he lasted this long. He's got so much upside. That was the, you know, Tyree Kill peace sign after the draft. And now we're getting it again on Twitter of him, you know, maybe getting shipped out. He'll be a top 20 fantasy receiver. And if we know, God forbid something happens to Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison's arrow just, you know, rocket ship skyrockets.
- [53:45]
Host 5
Yeah. I think the questions I would have, what is Johnny Smith's role and what is TJ Hawkinson's role?
- [53:51]
Host 2
Because they'll have, they'll have roles, but I mean these guys just become infinitely better.
- [53:56]
Host 5
Yeah, I'm not. Right. I'm not going to play the what if Justin Jefferson gets hurt game. Right. But, but obviously Goddard could be out and Tyree Kill could as well. So those are more realistic scenarios. But that's. I think if they just even didn't throw their tight end, I'd be more encouraged by, by Addison. But they do have a good tight end. However they did, they were a little run heavy. They were kind of Run heavy for the first half of the season. So if the Vikings could go back to being one of the most pass heavy teams in the NFL, it might not matter.
- [54:24]
Host 3
I would not expect that with a rookie quarterback or first year starter.
- [54:29]
Host 5
Yeah, probably not.
- [54:30]
Host 2
And one of their biggest transactions, you know, even on a small scale in terms of what they gave up to get him was acquiring a running back. All right. And beefing up their offensive lines.
- [54:38]
Host 5
Yeah, he's breakouts. Jaden Daniels, Bo nicks, Chase Brown, Lad McConkey, Jackson, Smith and Jigba. Rashid Rice. Jaden Daniels, go.
- [54:47]
Host 3
He is my number one quarterback in the projections. You look at what he did in three playoff games. 315 yards from scrimmage per game. Those are Lamar Jackson type numbers. He finished last year as a top five fantasy quarterback. That's not the ceiling. The ceiling is that he's the best quarterback in fantasy football.
- [55:10]
Host 5
Bonix.
- [55:13]
Host 3
I generally think, and we talked about this at the beginning, that there is still room. Big Knicks wasn't so good that we're expecting regression in year two. He was still a rookie quarterback and those generally get better. He only averaged 6.7 yards per attempt last year. You mentioned it like with the rushing, he ran quite a bit, but the, the rushing efficiency wasn't quite as good as some of the guys who ran less or similar to him. So I think he has some room for gains there. Evan Ingram is an improvement as well and I, he gets a better wide receiver too in the draft.
- [55:46]
Host 4
I also would expect him to get a running back who can catch in the draft outlet form or run.
- [55:52]
Host 5
Or run. Yeah. I did a lot of research on the effect of a run game and how it, how it relates to pass attempts for a team. In other words, teams that throw a lot, do they have bad run games? I can give you the results later if you'd like. Chase Brown, we, I think you could.
- [56:13]
Host 3
Make the argument that we already saw his breakout in the second half of last year. I love the fact that the Bengals have not made any real effort so far to add somebody who's going to take touches away from him. This is probably the most draft dependent breakout of all. But he could be right up there with Bucky Irving and Ken Walker in the round two, three range this season in drafts.
- [56:36]
Host 2
I, I, I spoke to Zach Taylor. Haven't gotten to that part of my, as Adam called it, my little recorder. But Taylor, I mean the smile on his face when I asked him about Chase Brown like and the answer he gave, you know, just how he grew into the role. You're right, Heath. And this is something Dan talked about because he was not convinced that the Bengals don't go drop somebody. I'm, I would be shocked if they made a significant investment running back knowing all the holes they have defensively and all the money that they just spent offensively with still having Zach Moss on the roster, you know, so he didn't really get a chance to, you know, go from starter to backup because he got hurt. And I think, you know, who knows when we would have seen the breakout for Chase Brown, but it would not shock me. I don't know if he can get that much better because he was so good. But if it's, it could certainly be replicated because we saw Joe Mixon be a great fantasy option in this offense. Chase Brown could be great fantasy options. Offense, like, it's just, it's tailor made if everybody stays healthy, you know, big F. But if everybody, at least, you know, quarterback and receivers, receivers stay healthy. Like how do you defend this team? And if Chase Brown's catching passes, you know, I know that's always your concern, Adam, because he doesn't play on third. He did last year, but will he play on third downs?
- [57:47]
Host 5
Yeah, consistently not a huge concern.
- [57:50]
Host 2
Then, then it's, you know, somewhat problematic. But I, I, he's, he's one of my favorite players. Like, I loved him last year and just, you know, hopefully he does not get significant competition. But again, it would be surprising if that's a route that they go.
- [58:03]
Host 5
No, my concern is that, you know, his, his last eight games, weeks nine through 17, Chase Brown was the number three running back per game in PPR. He was on pace for just under 2, 000 total yards, but also 81 catches. My concern would be they don't use him on third down. He's more like a 50, 50 catch guy, something like that. Like not an 81 catch guy, but certainly enough catches there. And you know what? It doesn't, it's not like mixing Mixon was, you know, a 50ish catch guy. Didn't play on third down. Chase Brown is really, really good in the passing game. So they, they line him up out wide. He's a weapon.
- [58:41]
Host 2
That's something Taylor talked about. And he said, you know, specifically, he's like, we knew he was good in pass protection and he exceeded our expectations.
- [58:48]
Host 5
Oh, wow. All right.
- [58:49]
Host 4
I'm like Bucky Irving in that stretch that you talked about from week nine through 17. So it's half the year for him. He played at least 80 of the snaps in every game.
- [58:59]
Host 5
Yeah.
- [58:59]
Host 2
Oh, he was all they had, you know. And, and that's, that's Dan's point, you know, going back to a previous show is that he doesn't think that that's sustainable based on his size that he'll hold up and you know, he did get hurt at the end of the year. But it could bring somebody in. Yeah, they'll bring somebody in. But is it just a special teams break glass case emergency type of guy like a Kenneth Gainwell or are they bringing in, hey, we're going all in on offense, high, Omarion Hampton, you know, something like that.
- [59:30]
Host 4
Right. And there's a lot of running backs in this draft that they could do that with. You know, they could take one of the Ohio State running backs. I always defer to them. It's like the go to in rounds two, three for a team to get but if they do then that could obviously impact the playing time for Chase Brown. It's what you started this off with Heath. He is very dependent on what happens in the draft.
- [59:48]
Host 5
All right, Heath, back to you. Lad McConkey.
- [59:51]
Host 3
One of my favorite things about rookies because I will say on this show a lot that full season statistics are generally more predictive than second half or random splits or Azer stats. But the one place that I go away from that is when you're talking about rookies and specifically rookie wide receivers in the second half of the year. We've seen countless examples over the years. Amon Ross, St. Brown, Rushy Rice, I think last year's three first three games enough to show that that was real. And lad McConkey, holy cow, in his last 10 games he was on pace for 99 catches, 1500 yards and nine touchdowns. And then in the playoffs he had nine catches for 197 yards and a touchdown. He's a top 10 wide receiver in my projections. He's worthy of a pick in the first two rounds.
- [60:43]
Host 5
The only issue with the pace that you mentioned you did left out one stat and that was his targets. He was only on pace for 124 targets in those last 10 games. So that's the only thing that holds me back because it's like so easy to see him having a really good year. But is he going to end up being a second round pick? Like a late second round pick? Hopefully he'll stay in the third round. I just wonder will they ever throw? I think, I think the number I gave was like 31.8 pass attempts per game after their buy they had A buy in week five. Will they ever throw enough for Lab McConkey to be 150 target guy? Does he need to be, you know, to, to be a, to be a true stud? You said top 10, right?
- [61:22]
Host 3
I, I, what I would say is like there were some games where there were target problems, but in that stretch, I mean the playoffs, he had 14 targets. He had a 12 target game, a 10 target game, a nine target game, an eight target game. Like he, he had one game with two targets. He had one game that he left it early injured. I, I think he's probably 140 target guy.
- [61:43]
Host 5
I was, I, I completely. Wait, you're talking about within that 10 game stretch. He had a game where he left injured.
- [61:51]
Host 3
I, well, he had a game where he was inactive after. Are you saying that's just Nasor stat?
- [61:57]
Host 5
I, I think so. I mean knowing me, I would be surprised if I put in a game.
- [62:02]
Host 3
Where he, well, he was still really good, but he missed week 13 with an injury and he only played 63% of his snaps in week 12.
- [62:10]
Host 5
You missed week 14 and yeah, game 12. Yeah, yeah, no, that's those count. I didn't obviously like, I didn't count his bye week. Okay. The game left with an injury. Sorry. Yeah, yeah.
- [62:20]
Host 2
The, the, the Chase Brown comment I think applies here too. You know, do they add a receiver in the draft?
- [62:25]
Host 4
They had a running back and a.
- [62:27]
Host 2
Receiver in the draft could certainly do that. I, I, you know, Harbaugh was asked when I was listening to him talk about Mike Williams and he said, I didn't know Michael. He was, the first time I met Mike Williams was when we signed him. He said, but Justin was so happy. And he goes, that made me happy to see how happy Justin was. So if it's Mike Williams and a day three receiver like Lad McConne to the moon. There's been some rumors about maybe a Keenan Allen reunion, which would be awful for Lab Makaki in my opinion at least. And if they go early at receiver, I think that would be awful also. So I think if I'm the Chargers, I'm looking at maybe a running back of the future. You know, someone to pair with Naji Harris if you're just talking about skill players and tight end. Because I don't think Tyler Conklin's the answer.
- [63:18]
Host 5
All right, two more for Heath. JSN then Rashid Rice. Go ahead, JSN.
- [63:23]
Host 3
I think JSN's one of the obvious ones. DK left, Lockett left, basically the same thing at quarterback this Year could be amongst the leaders in target percentage, even with Cooper cup there. And if Cooper cup goes down, then he might just lead the NFL in target rate. Rishi Rice, kind of similar to what I said about lad McConkey is, we've seen little stretches from Rice where he's shown just how good he could be, but we haven't seen it anywhere close to over a full season or really even over a half a season. But if you look at his last 10 games that he's played, it's basically 18 fantasy points per game. It sounds like he's healthy. There's no talk about the criminal case. I don't know whatever happened to that, but like a year later, we just don't hear anything. If he just plays 17 games next year, he should be right up there with McConkey as a top 10 wide receiver.
- [64:18]
Host 5
All right, that's going to do it for today's show. And by the way, the only wide receiver who averaged more fantasy points per game than Rasheed Rice last year was Jamar chase. Rice averaged 21.6 points per game in his three healthy games.
- [64:30]
Host 4
Not gonna count 9.7 targets per game.
- [64:33]
Host 2
And read this. Feels like he's on track for.
- [64:36]
Host 5
To be ready for training camp, though, right? Not for money camp, not for.
- [64:41]
Host 2
Yeah, well, I don't care about minicamp. If guys coming off significant injury. If he's ready for training camp, I'm fine with it.
- [64:47]
Host 5
Okay. But like, McCaffrey is going to be ready way before that. Just. Just to put things in perspective. But, you know, okay, we're worried if. We're worried if we're fine with Rasheed Rice, but worried about McCaffrey. McCaffrey's way ahead of Rasheed Rice.
- [64:59]
Host 2
Yes. If you're. If you're just talking about injuries. McCaffrey's also, you know, 65 when it comes to his position in age, and. And Rice, you know, is just at the start of his career.
- [65:11]
Host 5
Are you telling me that you would take Rashee Rice ahead of Christian McCaffrey at fantasy?
- [65:14]
Host 2
No, I would not. Yeah, I think if. If both hit. McCaffrey is more valuable at his position and. And overall than Rashi Rice. But I don't have to take them in the same spot. I could probably take both of them.
- [65:23]
Host 5
I think we should make a bet and whatever that bet is, one of us has to draft the old team like we have in. In one of our leagues. Have to draft, like, only players that are 29 years old or.
- [65:36]
Host 2
All right, let. Here's the bet, because it applies to something that's actually tangible, to something that we did.
- [65:41]
Host 5
Okay.
- [65:42]
Host 2
And I'll let you decide because these were two players. One that I wanted, one that you wanted. Raphael Devers is yours. And you give me from this point forward. So nothing that they've done already. So you could wipe out what? Devers and his crappy start. This is our fantasy baseball team. I wanted Jazz Chisholm, you wanted Raphael Devers. We took divers. Chisholm went a couple spots after. I also would have taken Manny Machado over Devers. That was your pick. So you give me whoever you want and you get.
- [66:14]
Host 5
Stick with Devers. I'll stick with Devers.
- [66:16]
Host 2
No, you are getting divers. You're giving me. You.
- [66:18]
Host 5
You pick.
- [66:19]
Host 2
I'll take. I'll take Jazz.
- [66:21]
Host 5
All right, you get Jazz Chisholm. I'll take. I didn't know about the torpedo bats.
- [66:26]
Host 2
I mean, you could give. You could give Devers Bam Bam's bat. At this point, he may not hit the baseball. So we'll go April 2nd. They have not played a game yet on Wednesday, April 2nd. April 2nd. Until August 1st.
- [66:38]
Host 5
Okay. And the loser of this has to. This is what, like, loser has to.
- [66:42]
Host 2
Take the all old team fantasy points per game.
- [66:46]
Host 5
Total points. Because I don't want to. It just can't come down to injury here.
- [66:50]
Host 2
Fantasy points per game.
- [66:51]
Host 5
Fantasy points per game. Not counting games where they pinch hit.
- [66:56]
Host 2
No, you can answer that at all.
- [66:57]
Host 5
I will. I will.
- [66:59]
Host 2
And then on July 31st. On August 1st.
- [67:03]
Host 5
Yep.
- [67:03]
Host 2
Because we're not drafting it. On August 1st, we will the. The winner will give the loser the list of players they have to draft.
- [67:09]
Host 3
This is why we win awards.
- [67:12]
Host 5
Let's put it in a word document and show it on the screen. All right, we'll talk to you all tomorrow. By the way, early show tomorrow. 8. 8. What time are we going? 8:15am Tomorrow with our bus. See y.
- [67:34]
Host 2
Paramount podcasts.
- [67:37]
G
The college football conversation never stops. And that's why it doesn't matter. Whether it's spring practice, the NFL draft, or the transfer portal, the only place they can have you locked down from sideline to Sideline is the COVID 3 podcast. I'm Chip Patterson with an exclusive invitation to join me, Tom Fornelli, Danny Cannell, and Bud Elliott. Three times a week, as we, like the players and coaches, begin the work for the 2025 season. That means the biggest position battles in spring practice, the ins and outs of the transfer portal spring window, and our scouting reports on the stars that are headed off to the NFL draft. Don't fall behind the chains on your college football coverage. Download and follow the COVID 3 podcast on Apple Podcasts, Spotify and anywhere Podcasts are found.