Vets, Dynasty Values & Offseason Insights: Theo Gremminger’s Breakdown! (Fantasy Football Dynasty Podcast 2/4)

Summary

Fantasy Football Today Episode Summary Episode Title: Vets, Dynasty Values & Offseason Insights: Theo Griminger’s Breakdown! (Fantasy Football Dynasty Podcast 2/4)
Release Date: February 4, 2025
Hosts: Heath Cummings
Guest: Theo Griminger

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Introduction and Guest Setup

[01:26 – 02:00]
Heath Cummings kicks off the episode by welcoming longtime guest Theo Griminger. They discuss Theo’s current projects, including content for Player Profiler and Fantasy Points, with a focus on rookies, dynasty, and redraft rankings.

Quote:
Heath Cummings: "Always enjoy talking to you as usual. Let's just start the show by you kind of telling everybody what you've got going on this time of year."

Super Bowl Predictions

[02:22 – 04:32]
Heath opens the discussion with Theo’s Super Bowl prediction. Theo confidently names the Philadelphia Eagles as Super Bowl champions, citing their strengthened defense and strategic additions like Saquon Barkley and Kellen Moore. Heath, while a dedicated Chiefs supporter, acknowledges the Eagles' potential to win if they overcome the Chiefs.

Notable Quotes:
Theo Griminger: "I think it's Philadelphia's year... they've been able to get much younger and much better on the defensive side of the ball."
Heath Cummings: "Am I going to cheer for that? Of course not. But if Philadelphia somehow slays the Dragon, then, yeah, that's fine. They've earned it."

Veteran Running Backs: Derrick Henry, Saquon Barkley, Christian McCaffrey, Alvin Kamara

[04:32 – 20:13]
Heath and Theo delve into the performance and future of veteran running backs. Derrick Henry remains a cornerstone despite his age, showing no signs of decline and maintaining high efficiency. Saquon Barkley is highlighted as a versatile athlete who may extend his dynasty window beyond typical age expectations.

Christian McCaffrey is praised for his resilience and potential to regain dynasty value, especially if he remains healthy and continues to thrive in Shanahan’s offense. The discussion also covers Alvin Kamara, who, while slightly less valuable than Henry, remains a strong RB2 option with impressive pass-catching abilities.

Notable Quotes:
Heath Cummings: "He’s somebody you just leave on your dynasty roster forever unless you're looking to rebuild."
Theo Griminger: "Derrick Henry is in a perfect situation. He's a next level athlete... this is a guy who's going to be 15 points per game and provide me a potential game-winning score when it matters most."

Veteran Wide Receivers: Devonte Adams, Mike Evans, Tyreek Hill

[20:13 – 23:55]
The conversation shifts to veteran wide receivers. Devonte Adams is lauded for his consistent high performance and spike game potential, making him a valuable one-year asset despite his age. Mike Evans is considered reliable but may face increased competition for targets in Tampa Bay, potentially affecting his value. Tyreek Hill remains a top-tier receiver, with expectations of a rebound season despite concerns over inconsistencies and potential team changes.

Notable Quotes:
Theo Griminger: "Devonte Adams is a player that puts up massive spike weeks. He's at the top of his game still and played well down the stretch."
Heath Cummings: "If I need a one-year guy, Heath, there's few players that have better trade value at cost potential than Devonte Adams."

Veteran Tight Ends: George Kittle

[25:08 – 28:04]
George Kittle is discussed as one of the elite tight ends in fantasy football, maintaining top-tier performance with a strong floor and game-winning upside. Despite his age, Kittle continues to be a highly dependable asset in dynasty leagues, offering consistent high points per game and significant upside in key matchups.

Notable Quotes:
Theo Griminger: "George Kittle is truly on the Mount Rushmore of fantasy football tight ends. He doesn't get enough credit for it."
Heath Cummings: "This guy's showed no signs of slowing down athletically."

Quarterback Discussions: Russell Wilson, Geno Smith, Matthew Stafford

[34:01 – 38:52]
Heath and Theo analyze the quarterback landscape, focusing on Russell Wilson and Geno Smith. Russell Wilson is seen as a potential bridge quarterback for the Raiders, with his future uncertain but still a viable Super Flex option. Geno Smith, under new coordinator Clint Kubiak, is expected to stabilize as a mid-tier quarterback with realistic expectations, treating him as a QB15-QB18 asset rather than chasing his past peak performances.

Notable Quotes:
Theo Griminger: "Geno Smith was good enough this year and Seattle's bullish enough about him. That’ll be another year for him in Seattle."
Heath Cummings: "You're looking to buy Russell Wilson shares for cheap."

Other Veteran Pass Catchers: Cooper Kupp, Keenan Allen, Travis Kelce

[38:52 – 44:41]
The discussion moves to veteran pass catchers like Cooper Kupp, Keenan Allen, and Travis Kelce. Cooper Kupp’s future remains uncertain due to trade rumors, while Keenan Allen is viewed as a valuable, cost-effective option with potential for high target volume despite age concerns. Travis Kelce continues to be a reliable tight end option with elite performance, though debates linger about his longevity and potential retirement.

Notable Quotes:
Theo Griminger: "Keenan Allen has some outs and he's dirt cheap. He's a great flex or wide receiver 3 spot next year."
Heath Cummings: "Cooper Kupp can't stay healthy like Cooper Kupp... he's extremely motivated to go to a new team and perform well."

Players Being ‘Washed’ Discussion

[44:14 – 46:12]
Heath and Theo engage in a rapid-fire segment identifying players they believe are "washed." They concur on Adam Thielen remaining productive, questioning the decline of players like Nick Chubb and Stefan Diggs post-injuries. Adam Thielen is highlighted as a cost-effective, high-performing asset despite his age, while Chubb and Diggs show signs of potential decline, warranting cautious investment.

Notable Quotes:
Heath Cummings: "Adam Thielen has shown really no signs of slowing down. It's a really, really cheap bet to make."
Theo Griminger: "Nick Chubb, he's missing time due to injury but still presents a high-efficiency option if he bounces back."

Mailbag and Listener Questions

[47:14 – 52:51]
Listener questions address trading strategies involving veteran players. For example, trading Aaron Jones for younger backs like Trey Benson or Braylon Allen is debated, with Theo suggesting that while Jones remains a decent RB2, pivoting to younger, less risky assets can strengthen a roster’s long-term viability. Additionally, trading A.J. Brown for high-upside receivers like Marvin Harrison Jr. or Roma Dunes is considered reasonable for teams looking to rejuvenate their wide receiver corps.

Notable Quotes:
Theo Griminger: "Fantasy managers are way too smart to trade a Marvin Harrison Jr. or Roma Dunes for cheap based on expectations that were not met as a rookie."
Heath Cummings: "If you're targeting Roma Dunes, there's another guy that's actually a year older than A.J. Brown coming off of a career year."

Conclusion and Guest Promotions

[52:51 – 53:56]
Theo Griminger promotes his work across various platforms, including Player Profiler and Fantasy Points, highlighting his extensive content on rookies and dynasty analysis. Heath Cummings wraps up the episode by teasing the next show, which will feature a Super Bowl spectacular discussing the Chiefs and Eagles’ dynasty futures.

Quote:
Theo Griminger: "You can find my podcast over at Player Profiler and Fantasy Points... I'm a lot of places right now, Heath."
Heath Cummings: "Thank you, Theo. Thank you, Thomas. Thank you to everybody who was active in the chat."

Key Takeaways

• Veteran Players: Derrick Henry, Saquon Barkley, and George Kittle remain valuable assets despite age, offering high production and reliability in dynasty leagues.
• Running Backs Strategy: Prioritize high-performing veterans while cautiously integrating younger, less risky backs to balance longevity and production.
• Wide Receivers: Devonte Adams and Mike Evans offer strong production with varying degrees of risk, while Tyreek Hill remains a high-ceiling option.
• Quarterbacks: Russell Wilson and Geno Smith provide viable options with their respective team dynamics and potential upside.
• Trade Strategies: Trading older veterans for younger, high-upside players can position teams for long-term success, but requires careful consideration of player contexts and team needs.
• Player Longevity: Monitoring age-related decline and injury history is crucial for maintaining a competitive dynasty roster.

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Stay Connected:
For more insights and detailed analyses, visit Player Profiler and Fantasy Points. Don’t miss the next episode on Friday, featuring a Super Bowl spectacular with in-depth discussions on the Chiefs and Eagles’ dynasty futures.

Transcript

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[Theo Griminger]

Yeah, so this time of year I'm churning out content for both player profiler and for fantasy points. Doing a ton with the rookies. Doing a lot of Dynasty content. Also some redraft content. Dude did an early 2025 redraft rankings, but yeah, he's just doing a doing a ton of content and very happy to be back here chopping it up with you. Always have a blast on your show.

[Heath Cummings]

You know you said that 2025 rankings and I think People think we're insane when we talk about that. But I've actually spent the first two days of this week starting to build out my 2025 way, way, way too early projections, which of course will, will kind of be the bones behind the rankings. I've gotten through the Chiefs and the Bills and the 49ers and the Ravens and the Colts and the Lions and the Bears. But you know, it, I enjoy that this week, this week where I'm kind of just like, here's the beginning of the projections process. And I think the other thing you said, like talking about the rookies, that's what almost everybody in Dynasty is doing right now. And we are going to do a ton of that on this show over the next three to four months. But in light of those 2025 projections and rankings, we got to remember like we do play this game to win championships and a lot of times it's the old guys that help you get over the top. So we will be talking vets today on FFT Dynasty. Derrick Henry, Cooper cup, is he going to be traded? George Kittle and much, much more. We always start with three questions for our guest. I always stretch the definition of a question because I'm just going to make a statement. Theo, let's hear your super bowl prediction.

[Theo Griminger]

I think it's Philadelphia's year. I think it's Philadelphia I and if you're, if you're a gambler, I think it's Philadelphia in the over. But I think what Philadelphia has been able to do since the last two times these teams met in the super bowl, they've been able to get much younger and much better on the defensive side of the ball. Tons of talent in the front seven and obviously adding Saquon Barkley and Kellen Moore as offensive coordinator. I think this team is really, really good. Also you have a back to back champion who's only a one point favorite. I understand that Kansas City had this massive win over Buffalo. A very hard fought game that could have gone both ways. And I think people think of them sort of as like this team cannot be beaten but Philadelphia has the makeup to do it. I think they're a very talented team and I think they get it done. Heath.

[Heath Cummings]

So I like obviously you look behind me and even you look behind Theo. I think you see Patrick Mahomes on his wall back there and everybody knows there's no, there's no questions about who I'm going to be cheering for in the Super Bowl. But I will say, like if the Chiefs are not Going to win the Super Bowl. The Eagles might be the team that I think is the most deserving. Like, I'd be so happy for Saquon Barkley. I've been higher than everybody else on Jalen Hurts since before he was in the NFL. I'd love to see Jalen Hurts be the guy, not Josh Allen or Lamar Jackson, that knocks off Patrick Mahomes, maybe get Hurts a little bit more respect. I'd love to see AJ Brown, Nick Sirianni like that. That defense with Vic Fangio, I think they would be a deserving champion. Am I going to cheer for that? Of course not. Am I going to predict that I would not. But if Philadelphia somehow slays the Dragon, then, yeah, that's fine. They've. They've earned it. Now, Saquon Barkley didn't quite make today's show because we're talking about older guys, but 28 used to be really old for a running back and he's going to turn 28 during the Super Bowl. How do you feel about Saquon Barkley's dynasty window? Is it still best viewed as a win in 2025 with nothing guaranteed beyond that?

[Theo Griminger]

I think that that's sort of the pragmatic way to approach older running backs. But with Saquon, I think that there's a secondary path where people might be selling just to sell and it kind of bites them in a Derrick Henry like way. He's a next level athlete, he's multifaceted and he's also sort of extended his window by playing with this very, very strong offensive line and playing next to a mobile quarterback in Jalen Hurts. So for me, if anybody's going to age gracefully, that's not Derek Henry. Well past their 30s, like to the 31 year old range, it could be Saquon Barkley. But yeah, sure, if you want to be rostering, these older running backs can get you in trouble. But I do think with Saquon, it's one where you have to be really, really careful before you cash out, just to cash out. He could be the league winner again next year.

[Heath Cummings]

So last year was kind of the year of the older running back saying, like, not so fast, don't write us off yet. Almost all of them either delivered or exceeded expectations. But Christian McAffrey was 28 going into last year, I believe, and be 29 this year. He was the guy last year that we were saying, he's just been so elite. We're going to ignore this aging curve. We're going to ignore any injury risk and then like multiple injuries that crop up. How are you viewing Christian McCaffrey if you're a true contender?

[Theo Griminger]

So I think if you're a true contender and you're rostering, rostering Christian McCaffrey, I think you just sit on the asset you have. I don't think this is a player that selling now would be the correct move. I think if you want to get out of Christian McCaffrey, wait until we get to training camp and Christian McCaffrey is fully healthy. People in San Francisco said that if San Francisco would have made the playoffs, McCaffrey would have been good to play. This is a guy where everybody in San Francisco says he's back to being fully healthy right now. So it's not one where we're going to have to go through an entire off season wondering what his return date will be. I think that the market might be sort of over punishing McCaffrey on the redraft side Heath, where you're starting to see McCaffrey as like a late second round pick in early underdog ADP, I think that that sort of a dynasty community will be way, way ahead of that one where people are already sort of like saying this is a guy we, we want to trim off of our rosters. I do think that with McCaffrey, unless you think that San Francisco is going to make a play for Ashton Genti and they're certainly in a position to do so, to make a slight move up or just stand pat and take him, then I think McCaffrey is going to get through the off season and actually gain a little bit of dynasty value. Because when fully healthy, this is a guy who's been beyond excellent. There's been no change in term of terms of the offensive scheme. Shanahan knows how to maximize Christian McCaffrey and his competition in the backfield is going to be Jordan Mason and Isaac Arendo, two backs that we don't dislike but certainly not real threats to take away work from McCaffrey on a game in, game out basis. So for me, I think that if you're looking for an assassin and someone in your league wants to get rid of an older back and they're willing to take Christian McCaffrey for 80 cents on the dollar. It's a calculated risk if you're a contender, but I think you could end up with a guy who's 16, 17, maybe 18 points per game next year and with his pass catching ability, he should have some longevity as long as he can stay healthy. Sort of like we saw this season with Alvin Kamara.

[Heath Cummings]

We already got a question in the chat. In fact a trade probably once a grade just traded Cooper Cup Debo Samuel and Cortland Sutton for Chuba and Tyreek and Dynasty and I will tell you that I believe Cup Debo and Tyreek all on the rundown later today. So just just for first thoughts Theo when you look at Cup Debo and Sutton for Chuba and Tyreek Attention sports enthusiasts.

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[Theo Griminger]

I think I prefer the Chuba and Tyreek side if I'm if I'm going into next season as a contender because I think Chuba Hubbard showed this year that he's going to be a high end RB2 at the very least, if not an RB1. If Carolina takes that step forward next year offensively, which they could with Dave Canales, Jonathan Brooks is gonna miss the season and Chuba Hubbard they've extended with a contract. I think he's an underrated dynasty asset to have right now. And with Tyreek Hill, that's a difficult one to gauge. But when it comes down to Cooper Cup, Debo Samuel and Tyree Kill next year, who's going to score the most points of those three? I think it's still Tyree Kill. If I had to bet on one of those three guys. So it comes down to Cortland Sutton coming off of this massive season where there was little to no target competition in Denver. We think Denver is going to remedy that this offseason, whether in the draft, trade, free agent. Denver's got to get some weapons. So for me, I think I'm leaning into the Chuba and Tyreek side and consolidating my roster.

[Heath Cummings]

That's exactly what I would say. It's pretty similar on my trade chart in terms of total value, but anytime you're giving up three and getting two and the trade chart says it's even, that means you're winning the deal. Tyreek is the best player in the deal. Also like that as well. If you have more questions for us, put them in the chat now. Again, I know some people you are watching on YouTube. Some of you are watching on Twitter. If you want to make a comment, if you want to ask a question, you got to come over to YouTube, put it in the YouTube chat. We will answer some of the chat questions at the end of the show. Let's take our first break and then we'll get into the vets. So I basically got three categories and I'm certain somebody's going to say, you forgot this guy. So if I forgot somebody that you're really interested in their dynamics, nasty value, that'd be a great use of the YouTube chat and we will talk about those guys at the end of the show. But the three categories are old yet still elite. Is the bottom about to fall out and they're washed? Right. And so with this first category, old and still lead, I kind of want to talk about all these guys because they really still were fantasy difference makers. It's easier once you start to see the decline in a player to really worry about that age. It's harder when it's somebody like Derrick Henry, who somehow, at 31 years old, has his most efficient year in half a decade. Derrick Henry, by all rights, should not still be doing what he's doing. Whether it was because he had too many touches in a given year, whether he has too many cumulative touches, whether he's too old to play running back, whether he doesn't catch passes. But Theo, he just keeps doing it. Do you view him as a safe RB one for next year and you just forget about the age and make him show some decline before we care?

[Theo Griminger]

Yeah, I mean I think that the, that if there's a, if there's a downward path, he's still going to have a high level of value as the goal line back in the Baltimore offense. So for me I, I almost think that it would be, it would be foolish to bet on him not being an RB1 next year. I think he'll be a solid second round pick in Redraft. I think the Redraft community is going to bet on him once again despite his age and the, the production he had in year one. We talked about Saquon, but it was also Derek Henry's first year in Baltimore that sort of landing a next to Lamar Jackson in that offense extended his dynasty shelf life. And Heath, the numbers were insane. It was one of his best seasons ever as a professional in terms of several metrics, almost all of the efficiency metrics and we truly believe in the Todd Muckin system at this point.

[Heath Cummings]

Right.

[Theo Griminger]

Todd Monkin, I think if he was a little bit younger would have been hired very quickly by, by another team this offseason as their head coach. He happens to just be a little bit older than NFL teams like to see. But I think one more year of this sort of production, I think a team will hire Todd Monkin as their head coach and people can say it's. Look at all the talent he has. But he's been able to adjust with the missing multiple players in multiple weeks. So for me, Derrick Henry is in a perfect situation. He's a next level athlete. No. 1 in football, well, I can't say no one. But there are a few players in football who do as much for themselves in the off season as Derrick Henry. It's been well documented from the nutrition down to the training regimen down to the just the sheer amount of money he spends on goods and services. This is sort of a next level guy. And I think that he's somebody you just leave on your dynasty roster forever unless you're, unless you're looking to rebuild. This is a guy what's the point of moving him? You're never going to get as much as as he's worth on the field. And this could be another year where he's going to get you 15 touchdowns. Unbelievable. First season in Baltimore four years ago.

[Heath Cummings]

I traded Derek Henry away because I was starting a rebuild. He was going to be going into his age 28 season. I didn't know if I'd be any good. By the time he was still good again, traded him away for a first and a second. Looked like a terrible trade. Last off season I traded a second round pick and got Derek Henry back a very early second and won a championship with him. Yeah, I'm just going to hold him at this point now, but I think it's interesting this next guy, Alvin Camara is two years younger than Derrick Henry was only eight tenths of a point worse in full PPR last year than Henry was two years ago. Camaro was two points per game better than Derek Henry was. But while I heard a lot this year about how wrong I was about Derrick Henry, everybody was taking Camara two and a half rounds later than Henry and Camara was almost as good. Should these guys just be really in right in a. Especially in a full PPR league just right in the same range in terms of dynasty value.

[Theo Griminger]

So for me I would have Kamara behind, you know the Derek Henry tier. When we, when we saw Kamara this year, the 44 point game early on in the season and then he had a 27 point game. But we did see the splits when Kendra Miller came back and Darren Rizzy was, was the head coach, Kamara didn't get as great of usage as we saw early in the year. So for me I think Kamara is an excellent player who should be treated a little bit like a little bit slightly less valuable asset than a guy like Henry. Based on a few things I think that the competition for touches next year is going to be increased. There's been some saying that New Orleans could draft genti at the, at 9 overall. That's just sort of been rumored. It's going to be one of the best offensive players draft if not the best one and he'll should be available in New Orleans picks. Just as sort of a changing of the guard situation, New Orleans embraces Genti, builds their team around him. You could sort of see that. And even if they don't draft Genti, with a new coach coming in and new players coming in, I think Kamara, this, this might be the last year in New Orleans I realized they extended him but I just don't quite trust him to give me RB1 production next year. Heath But I do think if you go into next year saying this is a very, very good RB2 for me I think that's the way to treat Kamara, not as a high end RB one.

[Heath Cummings]

The way they deal with his contract, I think he pretty much has to stay in New Orleans and then they're going to be paying him for three years after he's actually gone because they just keep pushing, pushing future money out further and further. I would ask you just rank these three because we've talked about them. I mean Saquon, Barclays, quite a ways ahead of all these guys for me in terms of dynasty rankings. But when you're Talking about Christian McCaffrey, Alvin Kamara and Derrick Henry in a full PPR dynasty league, how would you rank them?

[Theo Griminger]

Wow, that's a, that's a really difficult question. I think, I think the way that I would approach it is if I'm a contender, I'm going to take on Derek Henry because I think he's the safest bet next year for me to get a potential 20 point per game season, then I would actually pivot from Kamara. I would go with McCaffrey at 3 or be or behind Henry essentially do because I do think that the, the peak season, if we're going by a ceiling approach, a ceiling season for Christian McCaffrey next year in a San Francisco offense is going to look better than Alvin Kamara in what should be a highly new offense in New Orleans with a new head coach and potentially a new approach, potentially a new quarterback. So I love having Kamara, but I think I take the, I take the chance that Christian McCaffrey gives us one more CMC like season.

[Heath Cummings]

I had two wide receivers on the old and elite category, Mike Evans and Devonte Adams, and both of these guys had hiccups we saw early in the year. Adams, not quite looking like himself in Las Vegas, had some struggles when he first got to New York, but then late in the season Devonte Adams is just once again an elite wide receiver. Finishes the year as a top 12 wide receiver on a per game basis. Once again, Mike Evans had the hamstring injury, comes back and we, I mean we talked about it the whole time he was out. He's going to need this many yards per game to hit 1000 again. He's going to be a league winner. He came back, he hit the mark, he was a league winner. But again these year, these, while these guys finished the year as top 12 wide receivers on a per game basis, it wasn't without any, any warts at all. Do you think that Evans and Adams remain elite and is Adams more context dependent than Evans at this point?

[Theo Griminger]

I'M not so sure about the context with, with Adam's argument where I've heard that one Heath, where some people are saying, you know, we had the, the hyper focused targets because he got reunited with Rogers, etc. He also had a great deal of success last year in Vegas and the year before in Vegas. This has been a player that has put up massive spike weeks. We saw a 43 point week in, in week 15 and he gave us a 20 point week in week 16. So this guy that was scoring towards the end of the season, Devonte Adams, you're also getting at a discount right now if you want to take roll the dice that this is going to be a, you know, potential change for him. He's 32 years old. There's going to be a lot of people looking to get out of Devonte Adams. But if I need a one year guy, Heath, there's few players that have better trade value at cost potential than Devonte Adams. He's been at the top of his game still and played well down the stretch and I think that the team situation is just so beat up and there's so many question marks that you actually get him. Evans I love and Evans is a guy where we talked about him last year when we podcast together as a potential trade target. I do worry about one thing with, with Evans is I think that people are sort of all projecting Chris Godwin to be on a new team next year. But I think we could see Godwin back in Tampa Bay. They hire Josh Grizzard as the offensive coordinator. He was actually their third down play caller last year and they elevated him. So Grizzard was number one in the NFL in terms of third down efficiency. Baker Mayfield had a great deal of success with Chris Godwin earlier this year in the Liam Cohen offense and Jill McMillan came on a little bit. So for me I think Mike Evans is a very good asset to have. But I do think that there is going to be potentially more target competition for him next year in Tampa Bay. And that's not even including what they're going to do with Buck Irving next year. In a full on situation where he has a year under his belt, maybe he takes a big step forward as a receiver sort of like Devon Achan did this year. So I think Evans is fine. But right now I can get Devonte Adams for cheaper than Mike Evans and I think they're both sort of the, at their age you're betting on another year sort of an Assassin pickup where I'm going to get one year of production out of the guy. That's at least the way we should be treating these older assets. So I would take the discount on Devonte Adams right now rather than paying up for Mike Evans coming off of this record, you know, record breaking year.

[Heath Cummings]

So we, we agreed before the break Tyree Kill over Debo Samuel, Tyree Kill over Cooper Cup. Would you. How would you rank Devonte Adams, Tyree Kill and Mike Evans?

[Theo Griminger]

I think you still should probably take Tyree Kill ahead of those two. Tyree Kill is the the youngest of the three. He's had the the biggest peak season of the three recently. The his year in 2023. If he didn't get hurt, it would have been a wide receiver one overall season. And even with getting a little bit banged up at the end, he still was neck and neck with CD Lamb. Hill had one of the best seasons we've seen in the last five, six years as a wide receiver. This year sort of everything went wrong. And then we found out that he actually was playing injured all year long. Actually got injured during the traffic stop or on game one. It was just a very weird season. From missing to a tongue of Iloa to the traffic stop. I mean everything was sort of weird. Then you get the Tyree Kill could be traded this off season rumor. I don't know. I think this year could be a mulligan. I don't think this is the last. I don't think 2023 was the last very good Tyreek Hill season we've seen. I think he'll bounce back next year and we do have a little bit more clarity with him than we do Devonte Adams. And I just, you know, you got to go Tyreek over over Mike Evans, Heath. It's just, it's just process.

[Heath Cummings]

I just love putting you in these difficult decisions, letting you do the ranking. And then I just move on to the next question. The next question. The. The last elite vet, George Kittle, who like we had a lot of debate at least on fantasy football today about Sam Laporta versus Travis Kelsey. I said Trey McBride, others said Mark Andrews and the answer was George Kittle or Brock Bowers. Kittle with another exceptionally productive season.

[Theo Griminger]

Yeah, I mean.

[Heath Cummings]

No, no, go ahead. I, I'm just gonna say like the, the thing that once again though I hear was yeah, but somebody was hurt. He needs somebody to be hurt to be elite. Is that just nonsense?

[Theo Griminger]

I think it's a little bit nonsense based on the sort of the longevity that George Kittle has had. This has been a guy who's continually Put up top three tight end numbers in terms of points per game this year, actually leads the position with 15.8 points per game. Kittle's another one of these sort of timeless guys where we keep waiting for it to like fall out from under him and then he has a thousand receiving yards. So for me, like, Kittle is a weapon of mass destruction with spike week ability. That can really win us a week. And at the tight end position, that's few. That's few and far between. I think Kittle also, when we talk about 31 tight ends Age gracefully. We've seen it with several of these elite tight ends. George Kittle is truly on the Mount Rushmore of fantasy football tight ends. And I think he doesn't get enough credit for it. He's happened to play in the same era with guys like Rob Gronkowski, guys like Travis Kelsey, but Kittle, with the longevity he's had, with the success he's had with Shanahan, the success he's had with Brock Purdy, and the fact that we think San Francisco is going to be a potentially better offense next year. Heath, they were missing Trent Williams for a good portion of the year, missing Christian McCaffrey for a good portion of the year. We saw Juwan Jennings come on as a player. We saw Ricky Purcell come on as a player. They're going to get Brandon Ayuk back. Kittle just sort of settles into his own. I do think that you have to, when, when the 49ers are fully loaded, you have to kind of put up with spike weeks with Kittle where it could be a little bit annoying. One week followed up by a spike week. I think that's sort of the difference in his scoring next year versus some of the younger guys who are clearly the number one target on their team, like the Bowers, McBride. But if you're betting on somebody for tight end three next year, KD's very much in the mix. And for us as dynasty managers, I mean, this guy's showed no signs of slowing down athletically. So I'm fine having George Kittle on my dynasty rosters. I'm not looking to sort of pivot down to a younger asset because I know what I'm gonna get with Kittle, a guy who's going to be 15 points per game and provide me a potential game winning score when it matters most.

[Heath Cummings]

I will say that going through the 49ers projection and trying to keep the total team Target share below 100 is no fun at all because like, if you just look at what happened last year. It's hard to not project Juan Jennings to lead this team in Target, especially when we don't think Brandon Iuk's going to be 100 to start the year. But then you look at the year before or you look at the year like there's just. There's too many options. And generally speaking, and this has happened in San Francisco before, you just understand that one of those four guys is going to get hurt. Maybe two of those four guys are going to get hurt and the other guys are probably going to be awesome. So you should just draft them all higher than what they're projected to do with everyone there. And for Dynasty purposes, I think you just pursue the cheaper guys. We're going to move on to the second category and Michael has a question. I'm catching up but what would you sell Aaron Jones for? Sorry if you've already covered him. We haven't because he is in section two. Is the bottom about to fall out? I had two running backs here, James Connor and Aaron Jones. Connor got hurt towards the end of the year. We saw Jones efficiency struggle a little bit at the end of the year. These guys both at the age to where before last year we would have been saying yes, they're obviously too old. Connor is, is obviously going to lose touches to the young guy. Minnesota is probably going to draft somebody. But as I talked about we, we just saw the year of the old running back. So when it comes to James Connor and Aaron Jones, I guess first you can answer Michael's question like what would you sell him for and which of these guys are you more worried about the bottom dropping out?

[Theo Griminger]

You know it's funny, I would have thought that Aaron Jones would have been the, the one that I would have bet on over Conor heading into next year. But Conor has contract stability where Arizona is going to bring him back and they used him in a very high volume role. Aaron Jones was very good this year for Minnesota. Better than I thought he would have been there and but, but he is going to be a free agent. This is a player who's 30 years old. So I do think that there's a chance that Aaron Jones is on a different team next year. So I would lean to Conor in the head to head for me. Aaron Jones is sort of. You could throw them in a group of running backs heath where they might have more value right now than they will after the NFL draft. Not to. I know we're not supposed to talk about the 2025 rookie class this show but this is an exceptionally deep class. And I think a lot of these guys sort of in the non premium asset running back class, the Jones, the Tony Pollards, these guys, if somebody wants to pay you for them, it's not the worst pivot because there's going to be a number of players that you're going to want to draft this year on your roster. I mean this, there's like 10 running backs in this draft class, Heath, that I think after the NFL draft we're going to really want on our dinosaur roster with potential for more than that. So if somebody wants to pay me a second round pick for a 30 year old running back who is sort of up in the air, I'm willing to listen to it. But on the flip side, if I'm a contender, Jones is a decent bet to make. I think it a lot of this, whether he's a buy or sell falls into team context. If I'm a surefire contender. I think at the very least Aaron Jones is a committee back next year based on the, the juice he still showed in Minnesota.

[Heath Cummings]

So I think second round picked was exactly what I was thinking that I think you take, if you want to move off of Aaron Jones right now, especially if you can get one that's in the first half of this of round two, that'd be fantastic. I was wondering, I had a couple of names of GU who were drafted last year and I'm wondering, like, let's say you're wanting to get a little bit younger. Would you take a Trey Benson or a Braylon Allen for an Aaron Jones?

[Theo Griminger]

I would. That's a tough one. I, I think that you can create a pathway in your head where a year ago we really like Trey Benson. James Conner is going to be the oldest starting running back in the NFL next year. One of the two or three oldest starting running backs in the NFL next year. And James Connor's a guy who's missed a considerable amount of time in his career. Except for this magical 2024 season when no running back got hurt. James Connor has been a guy who's continually gotten hurt. So I'm taking shots on Trey Benson. I don't think that's the worst pivot. Pivot. But I do think with Trey Benson, the fact that Amari Di Mercado got more work than we both would have anticipated. I know when you were doing your projections this time last year, you weren't projecting a lot from DeMarcado.

[Heath Cummings]

No.

[Theo Griminger]

So I think that's a little bit of a, a little bit of a indictment on on Benson that it took him a little while to earn touches away from D. Mercado, but I would potentially make that pivot. I think Benson has the juice now. Braylon Allen's an interesting one because that's a player that I think we should be trying to trade for. He has the contingent upside if Breece hall is to miss time. And I think that there's a non zero chance Breece Hall's traded this off season. He's been mentioned by some as a rumored trade target where New York could look to make a splash, could look to trade him away before they'd have to pay him. Hall's a terrific player for us in fantasy football, a great pass catching back, but he's never had a thousand rushing yards. This is a new coaching staff in New York and I think that there's a chance, not necessarily a great one, that having Braylon Allen and Breece hall on your Dynasty roster could turn into a blackjack split where they both are starting running backs next year.

[Heath Cummings]

Love that I had three quarterbacks on the Is the bottom about to fall out and some of you may think they already bought him, already did fall out for Russell Wilson. We're thinking super flex and after he took over as a starter for Pittsburgh he was a pretty good QB2 in terms of a super flex starter. Russell Wilson, Geno Smith, Matthew Stafford, who it sounds like is probably coming back for at least one more year. How concerned are you about the bottom falling out for these QB2s and Super Flex leagues?

[Theo Griminger]

Well, I'll give, I'll give you some props, Heath. I always have to go back to an old episode we did but when Russell Wilson was at his like dynasty bottom where he was unattached, people thought he was done. Is he going to retire? You were telling people to to make a small a small trade offer and pick him up on your team and if you would have listened to Heath you would have gotten several very strong starts. This year was a good super flex asset. That being said, I think Russell Wilson is sort of in the same boat as he was last off season where a team's going to look at him as a potential bridge quarterback for a younger one they draft or a I couldn't improve the quarterback position so I'm just going to go with Russ for a year. I think he's got a chance for that. The issue is we can't look at him in the same context because last year he was on that super super team friendly deal where Pittsburgh wasn't paying him hardly Anything this year, Russell Wilson's going to want more money, which could potentially box, box out a couple of teams. I think if he's willing to take the same amount of money as last year, then the market's going to be wide open. But if it's, it's, hey, I played well enough this year. I, I need to deserve to be paid. I'm only 36, I'm not 40. I, I think that it could be a smaller market. This could be the quarterback of the Las Vegas Raiders next year, though. I think that the familiarity has with Pete Carroll. Apparently they get along very well now. They've sort of mended any sort of fences from, from the past and that sort of makes sense to go with a bridge quarterback. If Vegas doesn't get access to or, or doesn't think that this 2025 quarterback class is worth investing in. I think Russell Wilson could be the bridge quarterback for them this year. So I don't know. I, I think that this is one where it's worth a gamble, but don't pay anything worthwhile. You're looking to buy Russell Wilson shares for cheap.

[Heath Cummings]

My, my expectation is that what one of the Steelers quarterbacks from last year is going to be the Steelers quarterback in 2025. And whichever one it is, Russell Wilson or Justin Fields, the other one is going to be the quarterback of the Raiders. I do kind of think I want to see Justin Fields in a Chip Kelly offense. That, that, that sounds like a lot of fun. So you, you, we focused mostly there on Russ and he is the one who's whose floor is about ready to fall out. I think everybody knows the deal with Stafford. It's just going to be an annual game of will he retire or not in one of these years. The answer is going to be yes, and you can't really do anything to predict that, but you're not getting anything for him in trade anyway, so that's okay. Geno Smith, though, has seen his value fluctuate a lot over the last, I don't know, two seasons. And going into this year, we were pretty excited about a new offensive coordinator that was going to really unlock Geno Smith again. Now we're talking about a new offensive coordinator that's going to really unlock Geno Smith again. Do you think that there is some risk that people, you know, get tired of the Charlie Brown with the football with Geno Smith this year and his value plummets?

[Theo Griminger]

Well, I think with Geno Smith, the value has already gone down a little bit in Dynasty, but I do Think that for super Flex the guy has value to us and I think that the Clint Kubiak offense could be beneficial for him. We saw the early, early, early numbers from Derek Carr look very strong when they were at full health and they had Rashid Shahid and it was a fully healthy New Orleans team. With Gino, I think if we just are realistic about our expectations for next year, treat him somewhere between like QB15 and QB18 in terms of our points per game projections. We can't keep chasing the top six season that Geno Smith put up a couple years back. But the devil's advocate to that is Kubiak seems like a coordinator who knows what he's doing. JSN came on this year as a receiver. I think one of the issues and the change over to Kubiak was there was a little bit more wanted out of DK Metcalf. So I think that they'll, they'll lean back into DK Metcalf on some high value looks and the two running backs are both very, very good players. So Seattle is going to be a team that's going to be in a, in a contending position for a playoff berth, which sort of boxes the Seahawks out next year from getting one of the elite 2026 quarterbacks. So Gino might have a two year window in Seattle now. If they lose, he's done. They'll make a change. But I think Gino was good enough this year and Seattle's bullish enough about him. That'll be another year for him in Seattle. I know there's some saying Seattle could be in the mix for like a Jackson Dart. I don't really see that. I think it's going to be Geno for another year. So you have at least one year and potentially two if Gino has a winning season. So I think he's just a be realistic with what you have type asset rather than a guy who's going to completely fall apart.

[Heath Cummings]

And then we have three pass catchers here. I actually had four because I had Tyreek out. But we've talked enough about him and I think that we've heard that Theo's pretty optimistic about at least a little bit of a bounce back from Tyreek Hill. But Cooper cup is telling everyone that he's going to be traded assuming that the Rams want to eat enough salary so Cooper cup can be traded. Keenan Allen is going to be a free agent and was just doing everything he could to stand in the way of the Roma dunes. A breakout last year did a very good job of it. Travis Kelsey may win another super bowl and and ride off into the sunset with Taylor Swift. But to hear him speak this week, it sounds like he hopes he's still playing football three years from now and winning Super Bowl. So when you look at these three guys, I think it's really easy to see how the floor could fall out. Cooper cup can't find a team that really wants him and ends up in a pretty bad situation. Keenan Allen. Everybody just says no, you're too old. Travis Kelsey decides to retire. Which of these guys are you most worried about? And are we maybe sleeping a little bit on Keenan Allen because he didn't show any signs of decline this year?

[Theo Griminger]

You know, I think you sort of nailed it with the, the Keenan Allen one. When Chicago made the switch to Thomas Brown, we saw Keenan Allen sort of have several weeks where the amount of targets were insane. So we've seen back to back seasons where Keenan Allen has had these incredible target games. This is a player that multiple quarterbacks have wanted to target at an incredibly high volume. So I think that there is a chance that Keenan Allen is going to sign with someone will like the landing spot and he's going to be a productive wide receiver too next year. I think Keenan Allen has some outs and he's dirt cheap. He's last off season he was dirt cheap when he went to Chicago. He's even cheaper heading into free agency. So I think if you want to take a chance in your contender and get a guy that you can potentially put in your flex, put in your wide receiver 3 spot next year Allen might have a little bit of short term value now. Cooper cup can't stay healthy like Cooper Cup. The guy was 14 points per game this year. The guy was 24% target share. Had a couple of really good games at the beginning of the season. It's just a health thing with Cup. He's apparently extremely motivated, but he was extremely motivated lost last season. Last off season we saw the Cooper cup offseason workout videos. The guy looked so in shape, looked incredibly quick. But he, you see this with these older football players. Guy plays nine games, guys plays 14 games, guy plays 13 games. And it's sort of like a few years in a row where the guy continues to miss time. It doesn't usually result in like one year, another year where he plays every single game. So know what you're getting in Cooper Cup. I do think there'll be a market for him. I think there'll be a few teams. I know the Washington Commanders have been rumored. There's been a few other teams, sort of the Houston Texans, a number of teams where they might want to take a chance on cup and apparently he's very highly motivated to go to a new team and perform well. I just worry about him staying on the field. He's 31 years old, but he's missed a ton of time recently.

[Heath Cummings]

I I just wonder about the connection between Cooper cup and Duvall. Liam Cohen, like there's a little bit of a relationship history there. I think cup would fit pretty well next to a Brian Thomas Jr. He doesn't have to go be the number one. And maybe then we could actually get excited about Trevor Lawrence. We're going to take our second break. We are going to answer some warrior questions after the break, but I do need to read this comment from Joey Wright, Heath and Theo. Sounds like a buddy cop movie where one of them is a dog trapped in a human body. I don't know exactly what you mean by that Joey, but we love you anyway. We'll be right back after this break.

[Theo Griminger]

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[Heath Cummings]

So I'm going to presume that Joey was talking about like the names Heath and Theo. Like it's the name of a movie. And not that our discussions sound like one of us is a dog trapped in a human's body. I. I've got one section left, Theo. And this section is they're washed, right? You can take that however you mean however you think I mean it. But I'm just going to go through and we will. We'll choose which ones to talk about. But for now, just one word answers. I'll give you the name, yes or no? They're washed, right? Aaron Rodgers washed. Nick Chubb washed. Raheem Mostert washed. Stefan Diggs, maybe not washed.

[Theo Griminger]

Maybe he has a year left in him.

[Heath Cummings]

DeAndre Hopkins, T hops is washed. Adam Thielen, not washed.

[Theo Griminger]

Underrated. And when he's attached to Bryce Young, he continually performs well. If he gets, he's in the wide receiver two spot next year in Carolina, he'll be underrated once again. Tyler Lockett, Las Vegas bailout, maybe, but probably washed.

[Heath Cummings]

So I, we're pretty much on the same page on all these. I think people might want to give Nick Chubb a little bit more grace and a little bit of an extension because of the injury he was coming off. And maybe he can bounce back, but I don't want to bet on running backs his age bouncing back. So I agree with you completely on that one. I think, like, of all the guys on here that should be washed, it's Adam Thielen because he's the oldest guy on here. But he's shown no signs in terms of his production. Now I think he's got some options. Is he, is he a free agency agent going into this year as well? Like he has to choose whether he's coming back or Carolina has to choose whether they want to bring him back.

[Theo Griminger]

I believe Carolina can bring him back. I believe it was like a, like a team option. But I, but don't quote me on that one. Still diving into the free agent class. But for me it's like Thielen gave us that 28 point week in week 17, and before that he had a 15 point week, a 20 point week, a 24 point week. So as soon as he came back from injury, I, it was Adam Thielen once again. And we saw the same thing in 2023. Bryce Young targets Adam Thielen. This has been his guy. And Adam Thielen has shown really no signs of like slowing down. It's, it's a really, really cheap bet to make. But if you're drafting in early, best balls right now, go draft yourself some Adam Thielen. And if you want to float like a fourth round pick at some manager in your league, they're going to say, sure, you can have Adam Thielen. He's, he's too old for my roster. And you might have a guy that can give you 10 starts next year at absolutely zero cost.

[Heath Cummings]

Looks like he is on the team for next year. He has a cap number of $8 million, about half of which is guaranteed. So yeah, I hope. I hope Adam Thielen is there and in that same role. I agree that like performance wise, he's not shown much. The problem I have with Diggs is almost the same problem I have with Nick Chubb. I'm not sure that Stefan Diggs is washed. I'm also not sure that we're going to see the best version of Stefan Diggs after recovering from that injury next year. And it's easier with younger wide receivers to say, yeah, but in 2026 he'll be back to himself. In 2026 Stefan Diggs might be out of the league. So like there's I, I do have some concerns there, but I wouldn't want to give up on him at this point either. Let's get to a couple of questions from the chat before we get out of here. We have a question. I have Achan, Christian McCaffrey and Camara. Do I try to move one of the older backs for a younger back or for draft picks or if you had these three running backs. Theo, are you just thinking, you know what, I'm gonna go try to win the league?

[Theo Griminger]

I think I'm just gonna go try to win the league because I would basically treat it as Devon h as my RB1 and between Alvin Kamara and Christian McCaffrey I'm gonna get 17 starts combined and I'm gonna get low end RB1 production if they're both healthy. I think your roster is built to win. No reason to pivot out.

[Heath Cummings]

Joey says I Joe, I'm sorry Joe says I see Marvin Harrison, Roma Dunes A Caleb Williams and Trey Benson as buy low options. I am jumping on where do you see their trade value in an out with the old break. So I I don't think except that you're going to get any of those guys for any of the guys we've talked about except for maybe Trey Benson. Is that right? Like I can't see in a 1 QB league you might be able to turn one of these old stars into Caleb Williams because it's a one quarterback league. But none of the like Roma Dunes and Marvin Harrison Jr. Well above anybody we've talked about today, right?

[Theo Griminger]

Fantasy managers these days are way too smart to trade a Marvin Harrison Jr. Or Roma Dunes a for cheap based on expectations that were not met as a rookie. The Ben Johnson higher has made Roma Dunes and fuego in early underdog drafts and his dynasty stock is still right there And Marvin Harrison Jr. Is a Blue chip asset. People are gonna give him a very long leash and I think next year we'll see a Marvin Harrison Jr. Bounce back. I think there's got to be some self scouting this off season, Heath, but I think Marvin Harrison Jr. If he was in this draft class he'd still be probably the wide receiver one. As much as I like Ted McMillan, Harrison Jr. Would still be a guy if you were redrafting today you take ahead of tat, so I don't think you're getting those for cheap. Benson's an interesting one and I do agree with you. There's enough of there's enough disappointment going wrong around with Trey Benson that there's a lot of fantasy managers that are just willing to re roll their pick and say hey I took Trey Benson with the 203 in my Super Flex league, give me the 301, give me the 212 and we're good. I got him for a 212 in a single QB league and I thought that was great value to pay. So Benson just needs a James Connor injury and we're going to have this incredibly athletic back, explosive ability out in a solid offense.

[Heath Cummings]

So I got, I've got a couple names here because they're not old enough to have been talked about by us yet. They're still in their prime. But let's, let's say you're heading into a rebuild or you're really wanting to get younger. Could you see trading an AJ Brown for a Marvin Harrison Jr or Roma Dunes AJ Brown entering his age 28 season next year?

[Theo Griminger]

Well, it's interesting because we don't necessarily talk about A.J. brown as an older player, but if we look at the top 20 wide receivers on like keep trade cut, he's.

[Heath Cummings]

The oldest one like not by two years. In my, I'm looking at my rankings right now and in my top 24 wide receivers he is the only one who will be even 27 next year and he'll be 28. So yes, 100 right. He is older than the field when it comes to these young guys.

[Theo Griminger]

It's an absolutely reasonable pivot to trade to trade AJ Brown for one of these guys plus and I think that you can get Marvin Harrison Jr plus from some dynasty managers, which is a trade that would have gotten laughed off a year ago. AJ Brown also when you play alongside Saquon Barkley in Philadelphia, it is now a Saquon Barkley offense. So I love AJ Brown, but trading him this off season is not the worst idea. He's no longer the alpha dog on the offense. He certainly is in the passing game, but the offense now has Saquon Barkley and like you said, 28 years old. It feels uncomfortable to make trades like this. But sometimes in dynasties, these are the trades that put you in good position for the next several years.

[Heath Cummings]

And I think you were right. Like you got to get more than Roma Dunes. If you're giving up A.J. brown, I'm okay with A.J. brown for Harrison pretty much straight up.

[Theo Griminger]

Yeah.

[Heath Cummings]

But if I was targeting Roma Dunes, there's another guy who's actually a year older than A.J. brown coming off of a career year. We talked about this a lot last week on the regular fft show. Terry McLaurin. If you look at what he did last year, targets, catches, yards look very much like what Terry McLaurin has done. He went from a guy who was catching a touchdown on 4% of his targets to a guy who was catching a touchdown on 12% of his targets. I, Terry McLaren will be 29 next year. That's the type of guy that I'd be wanting to trade for a Roman Dunze.

[Theo Griminger]

Yeah, I think that McLaurin has been a player that has been continually underrated in Dynasty because we saw as soon as he got a quarterback he took off big time. I will say the one, the one devil's advocate with McLaren is I do think the target competition next year will be increased in Washington and we can't bet on him to set the franchise record for touchdown catches again. So I Love, I love McLaurin, but I would be a little bit careful. Careful trading a lot for him. The back half of the year, the scoring was insane. He had several 20 point games. But he did give you that week 11 game where he had two points. Week 17 he had one and a half points. So we did see what the floor looks like as well. But man, you're certainly rooting for Terry McLaurin to have another wide receiver one season and athletically shows no signs of slowing down. Jaden Daniels is, I guess, good for it's gold, good for staying younger at the wide receiver spot.

[Heath Cummings]

Awesome, awesome stuff as always, Theo, as we close up here, just tell everybody once again where they can find your work.

[Theo Griminger]

You can find my podcast over at Player Profiler and Fantasy Points. I I put out a number of Senior bowl stuff recently over at Player Profiler Fantasy Points. I have the update to my 2020 Top 2025 for 2025 coming out soon. I think we're gonna expand that to a top 50 and I'm dropping a ton of rookie content over on both both channels. School of Scott over on Fantasy Points. I'm doing that with Scott Barrett every single week. And you can find Dynasty Life press coverage, Sonic Truth over at Player Profiler. I'm a lot of places right now, Heath.

[Heath Cummings]

I absolutely love it. As you should be. Thank you, Theo. Thank you, Thomas. Thank you to everybody who was active in the chat. We have another show coming up on Friday. This week we will be having a kind of a Super bowl spectacular. We're going to rank the Chiefs and Eagles and Dynasty and talk about their Dynasty futures. We will talk to you on Friday.

[Theo Griminger]

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