Week 17 Start or Sit: Weather, Tyjae Spears, Isaac Guerendo, Tyreek Hill and More (12/29 Fantasy Football Podcast)

Summary

Fantasy Football Today: Week 17 Start or Sit Summary

Podcast Information:

• Title: Fantasy Football Today
• Host/Authors: CBS Sports, Fantasy Football, FFT, NFL, Fantasy Sports Analysts including Adam Aizer, Dave Richard, Jamey Eisenberg, Heath Cummings
• Episode: Week 17 Start or Sit: Weather, Tyjae Spears, Isaac Guerendo, Tyreek Hill and More (12/29 Fantasy Football Podcast)
• Release Date: December 29, 2024

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1. Episode Overview

In the Week 17 edition of Fantasy Football Today, host Adam Aizer teams up with analyst Heath Cummings to dissect crucial decisions surrounding player injuries, start-or-sit dilemmas, and the impact of adverse weather conditions on upcoming NFL matchups. The duo delves deep into player performances, matchup analyses, and strategic recommendations to help fantasy managers optimize their lineups for the final stretch of the season.

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2. Injury Updates and Player Availability

Key Player Updates:

• Anthony Richardson: Confirmed out with an ankle injury. (02:00)
• Tua Tagovailoa: Initially doubtful, confirmed out. Heath notes, "Players marked as doubtful are typically out" (02:19).
• Skyler Thompson: Also ruled out, leading Heath to suspect Tyler Huntley will start instead. (02:26)

Analyst Insights: Heath emphasizes the implications of Joe Flacco's presence with the Giants, stating, "In Indianapolis, Joe Flacco usually means more pass attempts and a higher completion percentage. It's an upgrade for Josh Downs and a small upgrade for Michael Pittman." (02:27)

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3. Start or Sit Decisions

Josh Downs vs. Tyreek Hill:

• Adam: Presents statistics showing Josh Downs' superior performance: "Josh Downs averaged 16.7 PPR fantasy points over five games with Joe Flacco, effectively doubling Tyreek Hill's average without Tua Tagovailoa." (02:58)
• Heath: Agrees, recommending starting Josh Downs over Tyreek Hill. (02:58-03:28)

Michael Pittman vs. Tyreek Hill:

• Adam: Questions whether to start Pittman over Hill.
• Heath: Slightly favors Pittman but still ranks Hill slightly higher. (03:31-03:38)

Taije Spears vs. Devon Hn:

• Adam: Prefers Taji Spears over Devon Hn, especially with Tony Pollard out. (03:38-04:24)
• Heath: Agrees, maintaining that Chauncey Smith should remain a top 12 RB despite the option to jump to Spears. (03:55-04:24)

Tyrone Tracy:

• Adam: Highlights Tracy's role and targets.
• Heath: Strongly supports starting Tracy, citing his efficiency and usage. (05:22-05:46)

Tyreek Hill vs. Dontavian Wicks:

• Adam: Contemplates sitting Hill due to weather concerns.
• Heath: Cautions against relying on Hill, pointing out the challenging weather: "This game's over under has crashed to 35, and winds are gusting over 35 miles per hour." (06:34-07:22)
• Conclusion: Both agree to start alternate options, potentially Dobbs or Wicks over Hill. (06:44-07:22)

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4. Wide Receiver Updates

Devonte Adams:

• Adam: Confirms Adams is expected to play and should be a must-start.
• Heath: Echoes the sentiment, anticipating a high-scoring game akin to T. Higgins' performance. (05:52-05:59)

Malik Neighbors:

• Adam: Indicates Neighbors is expected to play and is a must-start.
• Heath: Agrees without reservations. (06:07-06:09)

Other Receivers:

• Chris Olave: Ruled out, impacting fantasy lineups. (06:17-06:18)
• Jalen Waddle & Christian Watson: Both unlikely to play, affecting their start potential. (06:18-06:27)

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5. Running Back Analysis

Tony Pollard Out:

• Impact: Forces fantasy managers to consider alternatives like Taije Spears and Isaac Guerendo.

Isaac Guerendo:

• Adam & Heath: Discuss Guerendo as a borderline number two RB with upside but caution against overreliance. (04:24-05:22)

Raheem Blackshear vs. Romeo Dobbs:

• Adam: Queries which RB to start, Chad Hubbard out.
• Heath: Prefers Blackshear, highlighting his involvement and potential to lead the backfield. (08:26-09:50)

Miles Sanders:

• Adam: Questions Sanders' availability.
• Heath: Doubts Sanders will return in time, advising against considering him in lineups. (08:39-08:58)

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6. Weather Impact on Matchups

Major Weather Concerns:

• Miami vs. Cleveland: Orange-level game due to gusty winds (>35 mph), affecting passing games. (06:34-07:22)
• Tennessee vs. Jacksonville: Severe conditions anticipated, leading to potential game delays. (10:32-12:01)

Heath's Strategy: Heath advises downgrading RB and WR options in adversely affected games, particularly those flagged as orange or yellow by Kevin Roth's weather reports. For instance, he recommends lowering the value of Brian Thomas Jr. despite remaining confident in his top-12 status. (10:32-12:01)

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7. Community Questions and Mailbag

Fantasy Lineup Decisions:

• Heath and Adam address various community-submitted questions about optimal player starts in both PPR and non-PPR formats, providing tailored advice based on matchup and player performance trends.

Examples:

• Pick Two Questions: Heath prefers Downs and McMillan for PPR leagues, while Adam suggests Cook and others for non-PPR. (10:32-13:00)
• Wide Receiver Picks: Emphasis on starting high-value receivers like Neighbors, Myers, and Wilson based on current form and matchups. (13:00-14:35)

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8. Final Recommendations and Strategies

• Prioritize Players with Guaranteed Starts: Emphasize starting players like Devonte Adams and Malik Neighbors who are confirmed to play and have favorable matchups.

• Monitor Weather Closely: Stay updated on weather conditions that could significantly impact player performances and adjust lineups accordingly.

• Balance Risk and Reward: Consider the potential upside of players like Dontavian Wicks while weighing the risks posed by adverse conditions affecting stars like Tyreek Hill.

• Diversify Lineups: Avoid over-reliance on players from teams facing tough weather as it can lead to unpredictable outcomes.

Notable Quote: Heath on weather impacts: "Every Sunday morning, like, are there any orange or red games for Kevin Roth? ... Miami at Cleveland is orange sustained wins from 15 to 20 at kickoff to 20 to 25 by the second half with gusts over 35 miles per hour." (06:34-07:18)

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9. Conclusion

The Week 17 episode of Fantasy Football Today provides comprehensive insights into crucial start-or-sit decisions, emphasizing the importance of staying informed about player injuries and weather conditions. Adam Aizer and Heath Cummings offer strategic advice tailored to both PPR and non-PPR formats, ensuring fantasy managers are well-equipped to make informed decisions and maximize their potential for a strong finish to the fantasy season.

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Join the Conversation: Stay engaged with the Fantasy Football Today community by sending in your questions via email and Twitter using #AskFFT. Tune in to the weekly episodes to gain the competitive edge needed to dominate your league and secure those coveted bragging rights.

Transcript

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[Adam]

What's up everybody? Welcome to Fantasy Football Today Express. We got a lot to talk about. Let's get into it right now. Adam Ace or Heath Cummings here on FFT Express. Okay, Anthony Richardson's out Tua Tongue of ILO is doubtful. Richardson's at the Giants, Flacco's at the Giants and Skyler Thompson. Cause doubtful players basically never play is is at Cleveland. First of all, two is at a 4:00 game. But can we safely assume that he's out?

[Heath]

That's the way that I am functioning. I'm also expecting it'll be Tyler Huntley and not Skyler Thompson.

[Adam]

It will be Tyler Huntley. I'm sorry.

[Heath]

Okay. And listen, I was already pretty pessimistic about Tyree Kill. I am very pessimistic about Tyree Kill. It's kind of the opposite effect in Indianapolis, where Joe Flacco usually means More pass attempts and a higher completion percentage. So it's an upgrade for Josh Downs and it's a small upgrade for Michael Pittman. But no, I, I've dropped Tyreek Hill outside of my top 30 wide receivers and John who Smith is now more of a mid tight end one instead of a high tight end one.

[Adam]

So I'll just give you some numbers here because someone asked me Josh Downs or Tyreek Hill? And Josh Downs in five games with, with Joe Flacco, he averaged 16.7 PPR fantasy points. Tyreek Hill in four games without Tua Tongue by Loa, he probably averaged about 8. He scored 7, 8.2, 12.9 and 2.3 fantasy points. So Josh Downs basically doubled him in PPR.

[Heath]

Oh, I would definitely start Josh Downs over Tyreek Hill today.

[Adam]

Would you start Michael Pittman over Tyreek Hill?

[Heath]

I have them back to back and right now I still have Tyreek one spot higher.

[Adam]

Oh, man, it's bad. And, and Achan HN scored 8.8, 5.9, 2.7, 10.5 in PPR. Someone asked me Taije Spears or Devon HN, I said Taji Spears. And that's the other. That's one of the other big news items today. Tony Pollard's out.

[Heath]

I have not downgraded Achan that far. So I, I will. I'm still starting a Chan as a top 12 running back. Like jump to Taije Spears now since Tony Pollard's out, it's a good matchup. Jacksonville's defense has been awful. Taishe Spears has been pretty awful as a rusher this year. He just caught a bunch of passes in the last couple of games. I'm viewing Spears as more of a low end number two running back. I'm not jumping him up into the top 12 range.

[Adam]

The Jaguars give up the second most receiving yards per game to running back. So I'm hoping that's going to be a big part of his game. I think if you want to start Hn over him, I'm not, you know, I'm not going to put up a fight, but when it gets to guys like Jerome Ford or obviously I'm starting him over the ra. I shouldn't say obviously because they have a great matchup too. But the Raiders running back, I am.

[Heath]

Starting him over the Raiders. I am starting him over Isaac Grindo.

[Adam]

There you go.

[Heath]

He is right in for me. The Jerome Ford territory.

[Adam]

Okay, so that's a. That's. That's Spears we're talking about here. Yeah. And then the Garendo is going to.

[Heath]

Play and Rendo is going to play, and he's kind of right behind those guys. Just a borderline number two running back. I think he has the upside to be a top 12 guy. Tajie Spears does as well. But it is also possible that these guys have like 15 carries for 55 yards. And in the case of Spears, there's a chance that the team just doesn't really score very many touchdowns.

[Adam]

What about Tyrone Tracy against the Colts? He's gonna play.

[Heath]

I have Tyrone Tracy ahead of these guys. I have faith in Tyrone Tracy as a. As a starting running back. I love the fact that he has 18 targets in his last three games. He's by far the best rusher that the Giants have, and I am. I'm hopeful that he has a good day.

[Adam]

You have him ahead of Spears?

[Heath]

I do.

[Adam]

Okay, let's go to some wide receiver news. Devonte Adams is expected to play. Must start guy.

[Heath]

Must start guy. No doubt about it. I think you've got him in both the leagues that we're playing against each other. So he'll probably score 40 points like T. Higgins did.

[Adam]

From your ears. From your mouth to God's ears, buddy. Malik Neighbors is expected to play.

[Heath]

Must start wide receiver.

[Adam]

We should probably talk about weather, too. We'll do that in a moment. Chris Olave is questionable. The last I saw was he's probably not going to play.

[Heath]

He's been ruled out.

[Adam]

Oh, okay. Thank you. See? Told you. Jalen Waddle not expected to play. Christian Watson is unlikely to play. So I. My only Tyree Kill decision is, unfortunately it's Tyreek Hill or Dontavian Wicks. And I probably will stick with Tyree Kill, but what do you think?

[Heath]

I would probably stick with Tyree Kill as well, but I don't think it's crazy.

[Adam]

No. And I think I would start Dobbs or. Or read over Tyree Kill.

[Heath]

This is. And the thing about Tyree Kill, it's not just that he just lost Tua or that this game's over, under has crashed to 35. It's also that when you look at the weather, this is the scariest or second scariest game of the day. I just checked. And what I do is every. Every Sunday morning, like, are there any orange or red games for Kevin Roth? Miami at Cleveland is orange sustained wins from 15 to 20 at kickoff to 20 to 25 by the second half with gusts over 35 miles per hour.

[Adam]

Yeah, that's bad.

[Heath]

So Tyler Huntley passes in 30 mile an hour winds.

[Adam]

I think I might sit. Yeah, I'm going to think about that one for a while. But that could be Wicks over, over Tyree Kill. That's how worried we are about Tyree Kill. And then if you're desperate, Jalen Tolbert is questionable. Looks like he's probably going to play, but I think we like Brandon Cooks better and Alec Pierce should play at the Giants. I don't think anybody wants to start that. David Ajoku is out, but I don't think that's going to have much of an impact on anybody. All right, we're going to take a break and answer your questions here. Oh, I didn't talk about Chuba Hubbard. I'm very sorry. All right, when we come back, we'll talk about the Panthers backfield after this. On Fantasy Football Today Express looking for.

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[Adam]

Welcome back everybody. Okay, so Raheem Blackshear or Romeo Dobbs is a question that we have here. Chuba Hubbard has been ruled out. Non PPR is so. And Miles Sanders I think could play this week, right?

[Heath]

I have seen nothing suggesting Miles Sanders could play except for the fact that you picked him up in one of our leagues. He is eligible to come off of injured reserve, but I haven't seen anything suggesting that he might. It would be in fact I think they would have had to activate him yesterday, right?

[Adam]

I'm not sure.

[Heath]

But my answer to this I'm expecting Raheem Blackshear to lead this backfield. My Mike Boone will be involved as well. And there was one beat reporter who suggested a big boom for Mike Boone so that it could go bad. He's not of the level of the other replacement backs like Taije Spears, like Isaac Garendo, but he is a top 35 running back. For me the problem is most the guys that like the names that I would start Black shear ahead of have already played this week. I would start him over the the Jags. I I'd start him over anybody starting for the Saints. Although I did see the Saints actually called Clyde Edwards Hilaire up from the practice squad. So who knows who's going to handle the running back touches there As I.

[Adam]

Recall, Mike Boone has one of the. The. Doesn't he have one of like the legendary fantasy playoff substitute running back? Let's see. Oh, it was week. It was Week 17. He scored 23 fantasy points, not Week 6. Fifteen of 2019, Mike Boone had 13 carries, 56 yards and two touchdowns. All right, so let's get some more of your questions here. Pick two. Tyrone. Oh, Garendo or Dowdle. So I clicked the wrong one. I would go with Dadle, Tyrone Tracy, Taija Spears, Jameson Williams, PPR pick two. I think I'm sitting JMO, BJT, Brian Thomas Jr. Or BTJ rather is a scary play with the weather in Jacksonville. Do you feel that way?

[Heath]

That does now look like the second scariest game, but it's a little different situation. If I'm reading Kevin Roth's weather report correctly, there is a major storm that is going to move through Jacksonville during the game. It will bring heavy winds and heavy rains and then there will just be light rain like there usually is in Jacksonville. After that, if there's not a delay, then I think we might get a quarter where things are like unplayable. But it is an orange. So I will be downgrading BTJ a little bit. He will still be a top 12 wide receiver. For me, a must start.

[Adam]

All right, so the, the orange games for Kevin Roth on rotogrinders.com weather/NFL, Tennessee @ Jacksonville, jets at Bills, which is a yellow slash orange. You know, it like kind of not, not terrible early in the game could get bad late Carolina at Tampa Bay and it could be.

[Heath]

And again, that's an orange slash yellow. And it's the same storm, he says, that is going through Jacksonville. So I'm not quite as worried. I'm not quite as worried about the, the slashed yellows as I am just the full oranges.

[Adam]

And then Miami. Miami.

[Heath]

Yeah, Miami or Cleveland and Jackson, Tennessee at Jacksonville are the two that I'll be downgrading between now and the YouTube show. And so I'll lower those guys a little bit, but not enough to where I'm going to be thinking about sitting Brian Thomas Jr.

[Adam]

The YouTube show is big, folks. It is big. You gotta watch at 11:30am Eastern. YouTube.com fantasy football today, Atlanta at Washington is another game that could have some bad weather. It's a yellow slash orange for.

[Heath]

And I, I'm sorry, I would start Raheem Blackshear over Romeo Dubs.

[Adam]

Okay, there we go.

[Heath]

I thought I answered that.

[Adam]

Go see Spears or McMillan.

[Heath]

I like both those guys a lot.

[Adam]

I'd probably go Spears, John who Smith who did have two good games with backup tight backup quarterbacks, surprisingly Blackshear, Rashad White, Chigo conquo or Jalen McMillan. I would go Rashad White, Darnell Mooney or Jaden Reed. Epr. I'm gonna go read James Cook or Taje Spears. Non PPR. I will go Cook, Josh Downs, Mooney or McMillan to start two in PPR.

[Heath]

It's gonna be Downs and McMillan.

[Adam]

Chris is telling me to go Don Tavian Wicks for huge upside. Okay. I was. Yeah, I mean like I remember the Tyree Kill game against Tennessee where he was shadowed by Legarius need and Tyler Huntley was playing and, and he almost had a big game. There was a couple of near big plays, but I don't remember the other two games where he was horrible with Tyler Huntley. All right, we got Alamode, Zakias or Chigo conquo full ppr. Chick Tucker, Craft or John who Smith. I would play John Kincaid or I would, I would play Craft personally. Kincaid or also worth mentioning that that Jalen Waddle probably averaged four or five targets per game in those games with the other guys and he's unlikely to play.

[Heath]

So I, I will say I'm not sure it was that high because the run rate for this team went from like 40 to 56 when Tyler Huntley was playing. This is going to be a very run heavy Dolphins game. I would expect.

[Adam]

He had five, six, eight and he had 21 targets in four games. Jalen Waddle.

[Heath]

Yeah.

[Adam]

All right, just a few more. Neighbors or downs?

[Heath]

Neighbors.

[Adam]

Let's see. Garrett Wilson, Adam Thielen, Malik, Neighbors. Jacoby Myers, Calvin Ridley. Pick three.

[Heath]

Neighbors. Myers, Wilson.

[Adam]

Okay. And Kelly wants to Brag Higgins, Nixon, McBride in his lineup or her lineup.

[Heath]

Fantastic.

[Adam]

Way to go. You should be feeling good. But you know what? You could have some Fair barons in there, so don't count your eggs just yet, Kelly. Everybody else, thank you for your questions and comments. We'll talk to you at 11:30am Eastern. YouTube.com fantasy football today. See you there.

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