Fantasy Football Today: Week 17 Start or Sit Summary

Podcast Information:

• Title: Fantasy Football Today
• Host/Authors: CBS Sports, Fantasy Football, FFT, NFL, Fantasy Sports Analysts including Adam Aizer, Dave Richard, Jamey Eisenberg, Heath Cummings
• Episode: Week 17 Start or Sit: Weather, Tyjae Spears, Isaac Guerendo, Tyreek Hill and More (12/29 Fantasy Football Podcast)
• Release Date: December 29, 2024

1. Episode Overview

In the Week 17 edition of Fantasy Football Today, host Adam Aizer teams up with analyst Heath Cummings to dissect crucial decisions surrounding player injuries, start-or-sit dilemmas, and the impact of adverse weather conditions on upcoming NFL matchups. The duo delves deep into player performances, matchup analyses, and strategic recommendations to help fantasy managers optimize their lineups for the final stretch of the season.

2. Injury Updates and Player Availability

Key Player Updates:

• Anthony Richardson: Confirmed out with an ankle injury. (02:00)
• Tua Tagovailoa: Initially doubtful, confirmed out. Heath notes, "Players marked as doubtful are typically out" (02:19).
• Skyler Thompson: Also ruled out, leading Heath to suspect Tyler Huntley will start instead. (02:26)

Analyst Insights: Heath emphasizes the implications of Joe Flacco's presence with the Giants, stating, "In Indianapolis, Joe Flacco usually means more pass attempts and a higher completion percentage. It's an upgrade for Josh Downs and a small upgrade for Michael Pittman." (02:27)

3. Start or Sit Decisions

Josh Downs vs. Tyreek Hill:

• Adam: Presents statistics showing Josh Downs' superior performance: "Josh Downs averaged 16.7 PPR fantasy points over five games with Joe Flacco, effectively doubling Tyreek Hill's average without Tua Tagovailoa." (02:58)
• Heath: Agrees, recommending starting Josh Downs over Tyreek Hill. (02:58-03:28)

Michael Pittman vs. Tyreek Hill:

• Adam: Questions whether to start Pittman over Hill.
• Heath: Slightly favors Pittman but still ranks Hill slightly higher. (03:31-03:38)

Taije Spears vs. Devon Hn:

• Adam: Prefers Taji Spears over Devon Hn, especially with Tony Pollard out. (03:38-04:24)
• Heath: Agrees, maintaining that Chauncey Smith should remain a top 12 RB despite the option to jump to Spears. (03:55-04:24)

Tyrone Tracy:

• Adam: Highlights Tracy's role and targets.
• Heath: Strongly supports starting Tracy, citing his efficiency and usage. (05:22-05:46)

Tyreek Hill vs. Dontavian Wicks:

• Adam: Contemplates sitting Hill due to weather concerns.
• Heath: Cautions against relying on Hill, pointing out the challenging weather: "This game's over under has crashed to 35, and winds are gusting over 35 miles per hour." (06:34-07:22)
• Conclusion: Both agree to start alternate options, potentially Dobbs or Wicks over Hill. (06:44-07:22)

4. Wide Receiver Updates

Devonte Adams:

• Adam: Confirms Adams is expected to play and should be a must-start.
• Heath: Echoes the sentiment, anticipating a high-scoring game akin to T. Higgins' performance. (05:52-05:59)

Malik Neighbors:

• Adam: Indicates Neighbors is expected to play and is a must-start.
• Heath: Agrees without reservations. (06:07-06:09)

Other Receivers:

• Chris Olave: Ruled out, impacting fantasy lineups. (06:17-06:18)
• Jalen Waddle & Christian Watson: Both unlikely to play, affecting their start potential. (06:18-06:27)

5. Running Back Analysis

Tony Pollard Out:

• Impact: Forces fantasy managers to consider alternatives like Taije Spears and Isaac Guerendo.

Isaac Guerendo:

• Adam & Heath: Discuss Guerendo as a borderline number two RB with upside but caution against overreliance. (04:24-05:22)

Raheem Blackshear vs. Romeo Dobbs:

• Adam: Queries which RB to start, Chad Hubbard out.
• Heath: Prefers Blackshear, highlighting his involvement and potential to lead the backfield. (08:26-09:50)

Miles Sanders:

• Adam: Questions Sanders' availability.
• Heath: Doubts Sanders will return in time, advising against considering him in lineups. (08:39-08:58)

6. Weather Impact on Matchups

Major Weather Concerns:

• Miami vs. Cleveland: Orange-level game due to gusty winds (>35 mph), affecting passing games. (06:34-07:22)
• Tennessee vs. Jacksonville: Severe conditions anticipated, leading to potential game delays. (10:32-12:01)

Heath's Strategy: Heath advises downgrading RB and WR options in adversely affected games, particularly those flagged as orange or yellow by Kevin Roth's weather reports. For instance, he recommends lowering the value of Brian Thomas Jr. despite remaining confident in his top-12 status. (10:32-12:01)

7. Community Questions and Mailbag

Fantasy Lineup Decisions:

• Heath and Adam address various community-submitted questions about optimal player starts in both PPR and non-PPR formats, providing tailored advice based on matchup and player performance trends.

Examples:

• Pick Two Questions: Heath prefers Downs and McMillan for PPR leagues, while Adam suggests Cook and others for non-PPR. (10:32-13:00)
• Wide Receiver Picks: Emphasis on starting high-value receivers like Neighbors, Myers, and Wilson based on current form and matchups. (13:00-14:35)

8. Final Recommendations and Strategies

• Prioritize Players with Guaranteed Starts: Emphasize starting players like Devonte Adams and Malik Neighbors who are confirmed to play and have favorable matchups.

• Monitor Weather Closely: Stay updated on weather conditions that could significantly impact player performances and adjust lineups accordingly.

• Balance Risk and Reward: Consider the potential upside of players like Dontavian Wicks while weighing the risks posed by adverse conditions affecting stars like Tyreek Hill.

• Diversify Lineups: Avoid over-reliance on players from teams facing tough weather as it can lead to unpredictable outcomes.

Notable Quote: Heath on weather impacts: "Every Sunday morning, like, are there any orange or red games for Kevin Roth? ... Miami at Cleveland is orange sustained wins from 15 to 20 at kickoff to 20 to 25 by the second half with gusts over 35 miles per hour." (06:34-07:18)

9. Conclusion

The Week 17 episode of Fantasy Football Today provides comprehensive insights into crucial start-or-sit decisions, emphasizing the importance of staying informed about player injuries and weather conditions. Adam Aizer and Heath Cummings offer strategic advice tailored to both PPR and non-PPR formats, ensuring fantasy managers are well-equipped to make informed decisions and maximize their potential for a strong finish to the fantasy season.

Join the Conversation: Stay engaged with the Fantasy Football Today community by sending in your questions via email and Twitter using #AskFFT. Tune in to the weekly episodes to gain the competitive edge needed to dominate your league and secure those coveted bragging rights.