Wide Receivers Preview Part One: Strategies, Sleepers, Breakouts, Busts and More (08/07 Fantasy Football Podcast)

Summary

Fantasy Football Today: Wide Receivers Preview Part One – Detailed Summary

Release Date: August 7, 2025

In the inaugural part of their Wide Receivers Preview series, the Fantasy Football Today team delves deep into strategies, sleepers, breakouts, and potential busts at the wide receiver (WR) position. Hosted by Adam Aizer and featuring analysts Dave Richard, Jamie Eisenberg, and Heath Cummings, this episode serves as an essential guide for fantasy managers aiming to optimize their WR selections for the upcoming NFL season.

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1. Position Analysis: Age and Draft Dynamics

The discussion begins with Dave Richard analyzing the average age of first-round draftees, highlighting a contrast between running backs (RBs) and wide receivers. He notes that while RBs have an average age of 26 with three being 28 or older—Gibbs, Genti, and Bijan—none of the first-round WRs exceed 26 years. Dave poses a pivotal question at [02:12]:

“Am I taking a 28-year-old, 29-year-old, 31-year-old wide receiver or a 25, 26-year-old running back or a 25, 26-year-old wide receiver? Does that factor in at all for you?”

Jamie Eisenberg responds by expressing a preference for younger WRs, aligning his first-round picks primarily with WRs like Chase and Lamb, while similarly adjusting his RB strategy by favoring younger backs.

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2. Draft Strategies: Two vs. Three Wide Receiver Leagues

The team explores different league formats, particularly focusing on two versus three WR setups. Dave emphasizes the importance of securing at least one elite WR in drafts, especially in two-WR leagues where depth is abundant:

“We definitely want to have an elite one of the top eight or nine wide receivers. Right. Because we feel like there's a substantial drop-off and having one of the elite ones is almost a necessity.” [13:10]

Heath Cummings adds that selecting top-tier WRs early can provide a strategic advantage, allowing flexibility in subsequent rounds:

“I try to load up on my top-end receivers as much as I can.” [21:19]

Conversely, in three-WR leagues, the depth and necessity for multiple strong WRs necessitate a slightly different approach, though the core principle of securing elite talent remains consistent.

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3. Identifying Elite Wide Receivers

The panel debates the criteria for what constitutes an "elite" WR. Dave categorizes eight WRs he considers elite based on performance metrics and consistency:

“I have eight wide receivers in some order... Chase Jefferson, Lamb, St. Brown... A.J. Brown is just behind them.” [24:03]

Jamie challenges the placement of certain WRs, particularly Drake London, questioning his elite status and urging a more nuanced evaluation based on offensive schemes and quarterback performance.

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4. Sleepers, Breakouts, and Busts

The conversation transitions to identifying potential sleepers and breakout candidates who could outperform their draft positions:

• Sleepers: Emeka Buka stands out as a late-round gem with significant upside, especially considering potential increased targets due to injuries to teammates like Cam Scatter Boo [46:22].

• Breakout Candidates: Tetroa McMillan is highlighted as a rookie with substantial opportunity to emerge as a top performer for his team [48:05]. Jamie expresses optimism about his role and potential impact.

• Busts: Amara Saint Brown is flagged as a potential bust due to expected regression in his offensive opportunities and touchdown production despite his offensive team's historical performance [54:33].

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5. News and Notes: Player Updates and Injuries

The analysts provide updates on key players that could influence fantasy outcomes:

• Injuries:

  • Chris Godwin may miss a few regular-season weeks due to an ankle injury.
  • Tyreek Hill and Khalil Shakir are dealing with undisclosed injuries.
  • Marquis Brown and Mason Taylor face ankle-related setbacks.

• Rookies and New Additions:

  • Tetaro McMillan shows promise in training camp, potentially becoming a significant playmaker.
  • Matthew Golden and Tori Horton are emerging as strong contributors.

• Suspensions:

  • Rashee Rice faces a suspension that could impact his availability and target share with the Houston Texans, leading to increased opportunities for WRs like Xavier Worthy.

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6. Auction Strategies and Player Valuation

In discussing auction drafts, the team emphasizes the importance of balancing budget allocations with player value:

• Jamie shares his auction values, allocating significant portions to WRs like Chase and Lamb ([58:26]).

• Heath suggests targeting mid-round WRs like DK Metcalf and Cortland Sutton, who offer substantial upside without breaking the bank ([31:10]).

• The panel debates the positioning of players like Brian Thomas Jr. versus Malik Neighbors, weighing factors like team offensive strength and quarterback performance ([68:30]).

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7. Final Recap and Key Takeaways

As the episode concludes, the analysts summarize their strategies and highlight critical points for fantasy managers:

• Prioritize Elite WRs: Securing at least one top-tier WR remains essential, especially in two-WR leagues.

• Leverage Depth in Three-WR Leagues: Managers should be strategic about selecting multiple strong WRs to navigate the positional depth.

• Monitor Player Health and Team Offenses: Injuries and offensive schemes significantly impact WR performance and should influence draft decisions.

• Explore Late-Round Value: Identifying sleepers like Emeka Buka and potential breakouts like Tetaro McMillan can provide competitive edges.

• Stay Informed on Player Updates: Continuous monitoring of player statuses, such as suspensions and injuries, is crucial for making informed roster decisions.

Dave encapsulates the episode's essence:

“There are good ones throughout the draft and I mentioned this, there are at least two rookies every year, five years in a row I think that have been drafted in round nine or later and finished top 24.” [29:01]

This comprehensive analysis equips fantasy managers with the insights needed to make informed decisions during their drafts, setting the stage for a successful fantasy football season.

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Upcoming in Part Two: The next episode, Wide Receivers Preview Part Two, will continue the deep dive into WR strategies, focusing on auction values, additional breakout candidates, and final draft day tips. Additionally, a mailbag segment addressing listener questions will be featured.

Stay tuned and subscribe to Fantasy Football Today on your preferred podcast platform to ensure you don’t miss out on expert advice and the latest fantasy football trends.

Transcript

[Adam]

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[Dave]

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[Jamie]

This is Fantasy Football Today from CBS Sports.

[Dave]

What a play. Can you believe this?

[Jamie]

No, I can't. It's time to dominate your fantasy league. Off to the races and he stays on his feet. This is going to go the distance. Now here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie and Heath.

[Dave]

Welcome everybody to Wide receiver preview part one. This is Fantasy Football Today presented by BetMGM, the sportsbook born in Vegas. As we break down this awesome position, people just love a lot of great advancement. I think it's the best advanced metrics position in fantasy football history. So we'll get into a lot of the advanced stats, talk about our favorite players, sleepers, breakouts, bus, why targets matter, and how many targets you need. Where the value is why rookies are often very good and so on and so forth. According to fantasy pros, ppr adp, we have six running backs and six wide receivers being drafted in the first round. The average age of the running backs is about 26 years old. The average age of the wide receivers is about 25 years old. But three of the running backs are 28 or older. So you have Gibbs, Genti and Bijan who are very young. But then you have Barkley, McCaffrey and Henry who are on the old side. Whereas there's nothing Heath, not a single wide receiver being drafted in the first round that is over 26. So I do think it's an interesting decision to make. Right. Am I taking a 28 year old, 29 year old, 31 year old wide receiver or a 25, 26 year old, sorry, running back or a 25, 26 year old wide receiver? Does that factor in at all for you?

[Jamie]

Well, that it does for me because I have lowered, I mean Saquon's the only one of those running backs that I have in the first round. So I have lowered the older running backs. And that's kind of what I was saying during the running back preview is I, I've got a stretch of, of Bijan, Hn, Barkley, Genti, Gibbs that I'm taking over all the wide receivers besides Chase and Lamb. And then it's like six straight wide.

[Dave]

Receivers for me and Jamie. Over the last, I want to say four seasons, there have been 27 running backs drafted in the first round. They've averaged 17.2 points per game in PPR. Seventeen wide receivers drafted in the first round. They've averaged 19 points per game. This might be the last three seasons, but anyway, I'll ask you the same question about the age. Do you factor that? And you're looking at two guys. One of them is 29, one of them is 28, one of them's 31. And then there's the wide receivers who are clearly in their prime. Big deal for you.

[Heath]

I love older players. So I think that forget about the position, forget about anything. The first round should all be players that are 28 years older. Older. So like Aaron Rodgers should be a first round pick. Travis Kelsey should be a first round, but Nick Folk should be a first.

[Dave]

We could do this though. We got Barkley, Henry, Barkley, Henry McCaffrey, Tyreek Hill. I'll probably stop there.

[Jamie]

Joe Mix.

[Heath]

I'll do an older, older player team.

[Dave]

Yeah, we'll get off on a little bit of a tangent. Devonte Adams. Yeah.

[Heath]

You take Evans.

[Dave]

Evans could be. Yeah. There you go.

[Heath]

Kelsey.

[Dave]

Yeah. This should be one of. This should be one of our bets. By the way, whoever loses has to draft an all 29 or older team.

[Heath]

So you'd have to go. I think it's, I think it's tough because you. So like the other night I took, I took Gibbs and then got Hill and Adams. You'd have to probably go Henry Hill and Adams to start.

[Dave]

Well, you could, you could go later in the draft, but.

[Jamie]

All right, Allen's 29, so you're probably taking a quarterback.

[Heath]

No, no, it's gotta be Rogers that's the problem. It's gotta be, right?

[Dave]

Yeah, it can't be. It can't be. Quarterback.

[Heath]

Gotta be. Russ James, sum up the.

[Dave]

Sum up the wide receiver position in five words or less.

[Heath]

I want a lot of them.

[Dave]

No, that's more than five. No, it's not. I don't know. Do you sum up the. Sum up the position in five words or less?

[Jamie]

Elite, top nine then blobs.

[Dave]

It's funny you say top nine. So who's nine for you?

[Jamie]

Well, Aman Ross, St. Brown.

[Dave]

Okay, who's eight for you?

[Jamie]

Brian Thomas.

[Dave]

A.J. brown is in this group, right? A.J.

[Jamie]

Brown is the guy.

[Heath]

London belongs.

[Dave]

Jamie's saying elite top 10. Drake London. Ah boy. But London is. London is almost always 9th or 10th.

[Jamie]

You, you. By the way, comment from the chat, Johnny says this is like a bad haiku. It would have been much better if you would have asked us to break down the position with a haiku.

[Dave]

We can try to do that. London is always 9th or 10th in drafts.

[Heath]

Really? In the, in the flex draft he went ahead of AJ Brown, Amara St Brown and I think that's it.

[Dave]

Let me tell you. Do you think that the Falcons go over or under 4283 passing yards?

[Jamie]

Over?

[Dave]

Really? That is so many passing yards. I mean seventh, seventh most passing yards in the NFL last year.

[Jamie]

310.

[Dave]

What do you say? 4, 3, 10.

[Jamie]

310 is what I have.

[Dave]

All right, so that is a little bit over. How about 21 touchdowns?

[Heath]

Under slightly over.

[Dave]

Here's my point. Drake London was wide receiver 14 per game in full PPR Last year the Falcons had the seventh most passing yards in the NFL. 21 touchdowns is a little on the low, so kind of average. I don't know that we should expect their offense to be that much better. So why should I expect Drake London to be in the elite tier?

[Heath]

When did Kirk Cousins hurt his shoulder?

[Dave]

I don't know, week nine. Ish.

[Heath]

And then he played three games after that. Four games after that.

[Dave]

Three games with it, as I recall.

[Heath]

No, I think it was four because Pennock's only played the final three.

[Dave]

Honestly, I don't. I'm just guessing.

[Heath]

I'm just, I'm just trying to figure out like they were awful in those.

[Dave]

But it doesn't matter. Overall, they had the seventh most passing yards in football.

[Heath]

Right. So you have this 500 yard game from cousins. You know, you want to throw out their best and throw out their worst. No, you know, I mean it's. That stretch was awful.

[Dave]

Yeah, but they had the seventh most yards in football and he was wide receiver 14 per game.

[Heath]

And I'm just expecting, hopefully we don't have a four game stretch where they let their quarterback play with a bad shoulder elbow.

[Dave]

All right.

[Jamie]

Also, two of the guys who were ahead of him at wide receiver 14 are 32 years old, so we've moved them down. Evans and Adams, one of the guys who was ahead of him in per game is currently on pup. So we're basically projecting to be what he was last year.

[Dave]

Okay. All right, so we'll get into that in just a little bit. Let's talk about some strategies and whatnot. I have a couple of announcements to make. Getting a lot of emails in the FFT open leagues. And just so you know, I'm in the leagues right now as kind of the CO commission, but I'm only participating in my division. So if you see emails from me, I'm just overseeing. But real quick because I know there are only 200 and what is it, 268 of you that are in these. So the drafts you've been asking about the drafts. I think what we're going to do is slow drafts maybe you can figure out. But I think August 20th is a good day to start. Slow drafts for the FFT open. If we do them all at the same time, it'll have kind of a cool Scott fishy kind of vibe to it. So just going to throw that out there. Slow drafts on August 20th. You guys paid the money and girls. So if you want to try to do a live draft, that's totally up to you. But just maybe give me until the weekend or next week and I'll. I'll really try to sort it out. I need to get through these position previews and then I'll look through all the leagues because not everybody has accepted their invites yet. So please, if you haven't accepted your invites, if you're not in the FFT open league that you purchased. Be on the lookout for it. If you haven't gotten an invitation, please email me or email fantasy footballbsi.com that's the letter I. And if your name is Josh Goldman, I've been emailing you. Please, I really want to get you in your league as you donated generously. Just please respond to my emails. Thank you, Josh.

[Heath]

All right, I have a question.

[Dave]

Yeah?

[Heath]

Since we're doing slow drafts, we should. Are you doing decimal point scoring?

[Dave]

Yeah.

[Heath]

We should give 0.5 in every playoff round to the league that finishes first if they make the playoffs.

[Dave]

No, let's start with this point is wide receiver preview. Let's get to it.

[Heath]

Oh, come on, let's make it fun.

[Dave]

No, I want blank.

[Heath]

Why are you anti fun?

[Dave]

I'm just. This is an evergreen episode that people are going to be listening to in three weeks. So I want blank of my top blank wide receiver for 10 years. Me, I'm always fun. I want blank of my top blank wide receivers.

[Heath]

Oh boy. Two of my top 10.

[Dave]

Ambitious.

[Jamie]

I don't think the way my ranking set up I'm gonna get that. So I'll say one of my top 12.

[Dave]

Okay, let me expand it a little bit because I would like looking at our consensus rankings, I would like three of your top 28, 29ish, be generous and say 33 top 30 and probably four. I, I could, I could actually if I took a running back heavy approach, three top 40 could work because you got guys like Chris Olavi, Ricky, Ricky Piersol, Jordan Addison Debo, Samuel Cooper cup at the end of the top 40. But I think three top 30 ish would work for me. How about, how about you guys like three of your top what like all.

[Jamie]

Of our leagues almost now are white or three wide receiver leagues. And I think the majority of when I ask on Twitter of leagues are still two wide receiver leagues. So it's a big, big difference. I think three of the top 40 in a two wide receiver league is probably fine. Three of the top 30 feels better in a three wide receiver league.

[Heath]

I'm glad you brought that up because we've done a lot more examples of two receiver drafts than we've ever done before with the mocks that we're doing now. So trying to be a little more reflective of that. Look, there's so many different formats now with people using two flexes and things like that where you could play multiple wide receivers. If it's a three receiver league or even two receiver league. So it's still, I think in your best interest in PPR to start three receivers if you have two receivers in flex. Yeah, I think that's fair. Adam. I think three of your top 40 would be. Three of the top 40 would be appropriate. It's a matter of which three you're talking about though, because I don't want to have Chris Olave, Ricky Piersoll and Debo Samuel as my top three.

[Dave]

No, no, no, I, of course, I meant, you know, that you're waiting. You're just not going to be super strong at wide receiver. But hey, it's not so bad if. If Debo Samuel, Chris Olave, Ricky Pearsall, Jordan Addison, I know he spent a three is my number three guy in a two receiver league.

[Heath]

So basically what you're saying almost is a hero wide receiver approach.

[Dave]

Yeah. I mean, whatever it is, I think we can bring up some. Some different teams that we've drafted in the strategies. But yeah. Okay, first of all, we definitely want to have an elite one of the top eight or nine wide receivers. Right. Because we feel like there's a substantial drop off and having one of the elite ones is a. Almost a necessity.

[Jamie]

No, it can't be a necessity.

[Dave]

I shouldn't have said that.

[Jamie]

If you have a pick in the top six picks and you draft a running back, there's a very good chance you're not getting one of those guys.

[Dave]

Okay. But if you have the opportunity in the second round to secure that top eight receiver, it's or nine receiver. Good idea, right?

[Jamie]

Must.

[Heath]

Yeah. I mean, especially if you pick early. To Heath's point, you know, if you take Gibbs or McCaffrey or HN, whoever your preferred choice may be, and you're looking at Higgins and Tyreek and, you know, maybe still McConkey, then you may not be so inclined to have to force it if you don't love those guys. So you may go running back, running back. You may put a tight end there. You obviously depending on your league. And take quarterback. I think the other thing is like, just to reference that draft from Tuesday night, we had one manager start their team with, I think it was CD Lamb. And then it was Chase Brown and Bucky Irving, if you recall. So it was CD Lamb, Chase Brown, Bucky Irving. And then in round four, that manager took Chuba Hubbard. This is a two running back, two receiver, one flex league, full PPR. So it did not take second receiver until round five with Teddy Rowan. McMillan, like, I'm perfectly fine with that.

[Dave]

And let me just see who do you remember who the third receiver was for that team.

[Heath]

The third receiver was Stefan Diggs.

[Dave]

Okay, so you're going to war with.

[Heath]

And also, also, I'm sorry, took his fourth running back before his third receiver.

[Dave]

So if you're going to war with CD Lamb, Tetaroa McMillan, who was around five pick then he took Mahomes and he took Bigsby and then Stefan. Stefan Diggs, a mecca abuka, that would be pretty risky to me. This is again though two receiver, full PPR. So CD Lamb, Tele McMillan, Stefan Diggs, a mecca abuka.

[Heath]

Right. But in theory we'll never have to play a wide receiver and inflex spot. And you're potentially just rotating if Everybody's healthy. If McMillan gets off to a slow starter, isn't the guy that's as good as advertised. You're rotating McMillan diggs, potentially a buka. I don't remember who the fourth receiver was.

[Dave]

So. So just to go back to three of your top 40 in this build, right, like if you're. If you're running back heavy and you draft Chase Brown, Bucky Irving and Chuba Hubbard and Patrick Mahomes, if he did not take Tank Bigsby and instead he had taken Zay Flowers, Ricky Pearsall, Chris Godwin, Chris Olave, Jacoby Myers.

[Heath]

Much better.

[Dave]

Yeah, that's. Then, then, yeah, you can absolutely get away with that of taking one wide receiver with your first four picks and then in rounds five and seven, even securing two more in the top 40. And this is again a two receiver league. And yeah, that's a good roster build. That's a really nice roster build.

[Heath]

Now you don't want to do. And again it was an auto pick, auto draft outside of the first five rounds from team two.

[Dave]

Team two. Oh, team. Yeah, we won't talk about team two because.

[Heath]

Well, I mean it's, it's again, if you're. Let's just say it's not only two wide receivers. Let's say it's three or four.

[Dave]

So he took Bijan Robinson, T. Higgins, Jonathan Taylor, James Conner, Cortland Sutton, which is fine at that point. Right. And then no wide receivers for the rest of the draft because it was auto pick. So that's, that's a good build is just take another one at some point or two.

[Heath]

All right.

[Dave]

Your overall wide receiver strategy, we're going to find out about that in just a little bit. Now if you haven't signed up for BetMGM, let's use that bonus code fantasy when you sign up. There's a really nice offer Attached with that, you're going to get up to a fifteen hundred dollar first bet offer on your first wager with BetMGM. So download the BetMGM app and sign up using the bonus code Fantasy. Deposit at least $10 and place your first wager on any game. You'll receive up to $1,500 in bonus bets if your bet loses. Just make sure you use the bonus code Fantasy when you sign up. Guys, I'm excited about what we just talked about. Just Heath the Blob as you refer, but the depth of usable. I'm saying they're going to be league winners but usable start worthy wide receivers if you really think there are about 40 of them and you only have to start two again, everything changes if it's a three receiver league, but if you only have to start two, does that does free up a little bit to to take wider, to take quarterback, to take a tight end early. Right, right.

[Jamie]

And I think like the depth of the position is kind of strange because it feels to me like it's a little worse in terms of wide receiver twos and very, very deep in terms of wide receiver threes. So that's the only downside is in a two wide receiver league if somebody has one of those top eight and then their number two wide receiver is one of the top three or four number twos, then you could be quite a ways behind in that strategy.

[Dave]

All right, we're going to take a quick break and we'll talk about, I mean we've been really hitting on strategy, but we'll, we'll finish up our strategy discussion. I'll ask these guys who they draft a lot of, who they avoid. Later we'll do sleepers, breakouts and busts. We do have some news and notes for you as well. We'll be right back on fantasy football today.

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[Jamie]

Are you feeling more fulfilled now that you're back to work on August 15th?

[Dave]

No, I need a vacation. See the movie that critics are saying.

[Jamie]

Is an awesome look at that crowd.

[Dave]

Pleasing fist pumping all out brawl of.

[Jamie]

A film right about that.

[Dave]

They're coming after our family. Go fix this. Oh my.

[Jamie]

Nobody 2 rated R holding in theaters August 15th.

[Dave]

Okay, so maybe we've already answered this, but Heath, what's your overall wide receiver strategy if you have one?

[Jamie]

Yeah, I don't know that I have an overall wide receiver strategy, but it has been I'll been a bleed into what I'm gonna say when you ask me who I've been drafting a lot of, but it's the young guys is my overall wide receiver strategy. I I like the young guys and the exception to that is I am higher on the oldest elite wide receiver AJ Brown.

[Dave]

Jamie, how about you?

[Heath]

I mean I tried to take as many of my top 20 as I can. Like you know, Heath said the blob starts at nine for him. For me the blob starts at basic wide receiver 19, 20 ish in that range. So if I can get three of my top 20, I'm usually pretty happy. So generally one in the first two rounds. And then because I don't really prioritize unless the draft falls the right way, quarterback or tight end early, I try to load up on my. My top end receivers as much as I can. So usually it's one elite guy, one potentially high end player, and then one sort of hopeful breakout.

[Jamie]

And I want to clarify because I was trying to follow Adam's dumb exercise and not use a haiku and use five words instead. Like, I think the. The blob actually probably starts about 17 for me.

[Dave]

The blob starts at wide receiver. 17?

[Jamie]

Yes. And goes through wide receiver, 38ish.

[Dave]

Wow. Okay, maybe we can work on a blob haiku. You want to think about it? Here's. Here's my wide receiver strategy or just kind of the way I read the position. You guys can tell me what you think about it. So I have eight guys that I. That I consider elite. Heath has nine. Jamie, I guess has 10 with Drake London. I mean, I would. I would. I would honestly question if you really consider Drake London to be elite, because I don't think he would fetch. I don't think you would bid the same dollar or even close to the same dollar amount on Drake London that you would on, say, Justin Jefferson.

[Heath]

Well, of course not, because I have them ranked differently. But, you know, there's different, clearly, tiers. I think there are 10 guys that have a chance to finish in the top five range.

[Dave]

Keep going. There's 11. There's 11.

[Jamie]

So T. Higgins. Maybe. Maybe Tyreek, too. But the point is also, Adam, like, you also wouldn't bid the same on Brian Thomas as you would on Jamar Chase.

[Dave]

No, but it'd be. It'd be close. Well, okay, that's true, because Chase is. All right, fine, fine. Chase is. You're right, you're right. I just don't. I don't really believe that Jamie thinks Drake London's elite, but. Okay, fine, fine.

[Jamie]

And somebody said in the chat that I always have a very serious face. Look at my face. Like I'm judging people. I'm reading your chats.

[Dave]

Yeah, just.

[Jamie]

Just reading the chat.

[Dave]

Dude, the chat. The chat throws me off. There are some. There have been episodes where I've been in Florida in the studio, and I haven't had the chat in front of me, and I feel like those have been my best episodes.

[Heath]

The chat, best work in Florida. Wow, that's Interesting.

[Dave]

The chat just gets me so lost. All right. Sorry for questioning your, your Drake London take. You think?

[Heath]

No, you should question it. That's what your job is. Your job is a question. Just like our job is to question your Caleb Williams take.

[Dave]

That'd be. That's an easy one. All right. So anyway, I see it like this. There are, I have eight wide receivers in some order. I'll just go in order of adp, Chase Jefferson, Lamb, St. Brown, who we think is, is way overvalued wide receiver.

[Jamie]

4.

[Dave]

We have him like 9. 9, I think in our consensus rankings. Not that he's not great, but he shouldn't be. Four puka neighbors. Nico, Brian Thomas Jr. That's it for me. I love to get one of those. A.J. brown is just behind them. Go ahead.

[Jamie]

Pause. Pause. Because how this is. And this was the research I was doing today, but I don't, I understand why people prefer Nico Collins to A.J. brown. I don't understand how you could say they're in a different tier.

[Dave]

They're not.

[Jamie]

You said earlier they're the same guy and they've been almost the same guy. Nico's been a half point per game better and A.J. brown plays more games every year.

[Dave]

Okay, I'd love to have this discussion. I think it's a great discussion. I just let me finish my wide receiver strategy.

[Jamie]

Include A.J. brown and then you can.

[Dave]

Those are the eight guys tomorrow, Heath.

[Heath]

When we talk about players, those are.

[Dave]

The eight guys that I really want one of them. And if I don't get one of them, I'm, I am prioritizing A.J. brown, I think 18th overall, but I will take most, I will take pretty much all of those top eight over Derrick Henry. And then I'll take Henry and I'd already take HN at that point. And then I'll take A.J. brown. If I don't cut off Henry's. Henry and A.J. brown are the last of the elites for me. And if I don't get one of those elite wide receivers, if I have an early pick and I took, you know, Jameer Gibbs or whoever it may be, then I really do love the wide receivers available in rounds two and three. So we're talking about maybe Drake London. He's not going to last that deep into round two. But Tyree Kill T. Higgins, we are going to talk about Lab McConkey now. I don't know if he's, we still consider him a great pick with the Keenan Allen signing, but I, I, those three in particular, if I can get Higgins Hill, McConkey. That's great. Hopefully that could be my second or third round pick. And then I still love some of the players available in round three, you know, at running back in particular. Chase Brown falls there. So if I don't get one of those top eight receivers, I think I'm still going to be fine with my first three picks. And then with my mid round picks, I like to target Jameson Williams and Ricky Piersol at like the end of round five and the end of round seven respectively. Because good offense, great offenses often produce the mid round picks that smash their adp, but can get into that a little bit later. But okay, A.J. brown versus Nico Collins. That's what you want to do?

[Jamie]

I. I want to, I want the justification for Nico being in a different tier than AJ Brown because I think that, I think honestly it's a coin flip between AJ Brown and Nico Collins. And if you want to just completely disregard Nico's lack of ever playing a full season, I think that's fine. Like just draft without worrying about injury risk. But that doesn't even put him in a different tier still.

[Dave]

So AJ Brown has not finished higher than seventh per game at the position since being on the Eagles. It is strictly because the Eagles don't throw the ball enough. Now they've been 21st, 23rd and 32nd in pass attempts. If they were 10th in past attempts, he could be wide receiver one. The Texans are going to throw more. They're probably going to be middle of the pack in pass attempts. Nico Collins and A.J. brown, I said they're the same player because they're basically two of the most efficient players. Yards per outrun, yards per target. They're going to be right at the top of the list along with Puka Nakua. Those would be my three picks, I'd say for like the most efficient receivers, they're amazing guys. But AJ Brown, I don't know that he can crack the top six because he hasn't done it yet. And last year he was wide receiver 13 per game. Why was he wide receiver 13 per game? Because they were dead last in pass attempts. So that possibility still exists. They are the Eagles. They won the super bowl and once they change their offense, they did not lose a single game with a healthy Jalen Hurts and Saquon Barkley. So the possibility of them being 32nd in pass attempts is still there and that's why AJ Brown is not in the super elite tier. For me, he's the next guy out.

[Jamie]

I would just say last year I think it was 17.5 to 16.7 in favor of Nico. Nico played fewer games of course the year before. 17.4 to 17 the year before that. AJ Brown had was best year in Philly at 17.6 and Nico had not yet become a good fantasy player. And I just don't when they're always within a half, basically a half a point of each other. Something has to be different this year.

[Dave]

Yeah.

[Jamie]

For Nico to be in a different tier.

[Dave]

I think Nico Collins first of all, two years ago he played with Tank Dell. Last year he played with Stefan Diggs for, for a while and then he came back and he just wasn't the same after the hamstring injury. But his first what first five games before, you know, first four weeks he was on pace for 2078 yards on 183 targets. So he had a 29% target share. He just wasn't the same after the injury. I really believe Nico Collins could be wide receiver two or three this year. Probably not one. He probably won't. He's not going to have like that 180 target season. But I do think he gets, I think he has his best year because he's got the least amount of competition and if he stays healthy all year, which I guess is a big if he'll be at. He'll be as, you know, close to as good as he was in those first four weeks. Not that good because that was insane. But. But he'll be really good. All right. That's my Nico Collins defense. All right. Anyway, that's kind of the lay of the land at wide receiver. But there are good ones throughout the draft and I mentioned this, there are at least two rookies every year, five years in a row I think that have been drafted in round nine or later and finished top 24. So I don't know if this is going to be the year. It's not the best rookie season but there's good value throughout the draft. I don't think we have to talk about two receiver versus three receiver anymore, do we? We pretty much covered that. All right, so Jamie, who are some of the wide receivers you draft a lot of.

[Heath]

Any of the top 10? The most mid round receivers that I take the most of are DK Metcalf and Cortland Sutton. The most late round receivers that I take the most of or later round receivers are Darnell Mooney, Demario Douglas, Cedric Tillman. Trying to think of else in that range. A range of players, Luther Burr, Namaka Buka, it varies but probably the most Exposure I have is to Metcalf Sutton. Trying to think I'm missing something.

[Dave]

Well, let me ask you about those two guys. Are you comfortable taking Metcalf and Sutton in round four of a 12 team league or five?

[Heath]

Well, there are several teams that have both of them. So you have to do it in four and five. You cannot do it in five and six. So it's almost impossible to do it in five and six.

[Dave]

Okay. Metcalfe's. They're both. Their ADPs are both in round five. We often see them go in round four or late round four. Okay, so Metcalf and Sutton are the headliners there. Mooney Demario, Douglas Tillman, Luther Burton, Emeka Buka. Other names mentioned for Jamie Heath. How about you?

[Jamie]

Yeah, I think the early wide receivers are just totally determined by where you're drafting. So I mean A.J. brown's certainly the the guy I've drafted the most out of the top 10 wide receivers. After that it's probably definitely Jerry, Judy Cooper cup, Ted roll, McMillan Debo Samuel. Jacoby Myers is a steal in in full PPR leagues. Golden and Nabuka Matthew.

[Dave]

Golden. Matthew golden getting a lot of buzz and so is a Mecca. Abuca mentioned Jacoby Myers. Jacoby Myers has been top 30 per game three straight years and he's being drafted around wide receiver 40 fantasy pros. I'll double check that he's wide receiver 41. That's Jacoby Myers.

[Heath]

I wonder what Abuka is going to become in a lot of mention of him in the chat with when everybody's healthy because if he's as good as potentially advertised and like you said the buzz has been great. Who's going to impact because it has to impact somebody. And the obvious choice right now is Godwin because of injury but like if he plays to the level that he could it's bad for all of them.

[Dave]

Yeah, they were actually a pretty. The Bucks were a pretty run heavy team down the stretch last year and they did well with it. Their record got a lot better. They didn't throw that much believe it or not. And maybe that was because Godwin was out and Evans was out for some of it. So maybe they just go back to throwing the ball a little bit more which would be fun. Which wide receivers do you avoid?

[Heath]

Heath.

[Jamie]

Definitely Amanra Saint Brown. I have mostly avoided Garrett Wilson. I think I've avoided Marvin Harrison Jr. And that's where I'll be a good top three.

[Dave]

That's pretty good. All right, give me three. You know quickly why you're avoiding Aman Russ, St. Brown, Garrett Wilson and Marvin.

[Jamie]

Harrison Jr. A little worried about the Lions. I still think he's definitely a top nine wide receiver, but he's nine for me and he never goes that late for St. Brown, Garrett Wilson, I'm just worried about total pass volume in that offense and the accuracy of the targets a little bit. And Marvin Harrison Jr. I'm just like, can I please see a highlight of him doing something other than running down the sideline and making a great catch with no safety on the field.

[Dave]

And yeah, pass attempts. Over the last 12 seasons, there have only been six wide receivers who have finished top 12 in PPR and half PPR on an offense that's been bottom five in pass attempts. So consider that. Do you think Garrett Wilson is going to be on an offense that's bottom five and pass attempts?

[Jamie]

See, I have Justin Fields projected for the second fewest passages.

[Dave]

Jamie, who are some players you avoid?

[Heath]

Mike Evans trying to like, consistently avoid.

[Dave]

How about in. How about with those elite players, you know, like for Heath it's Aman Rossane Brown because he just.

[Heath]

I haven't drafted a lot of Justin Jefferson because he. I pushed him down a little bit with the hamstring injury and so he's now outside of my top six and he's usually gone by then. So this, this like Evans is. I don't know if I go out of my way to avoid him, but he usually goes in a spot where I don't draft him. So the players I, I just haven't been drafting if that's the better way to frame it.

[Dave]

Sure.

[Heath]

I have not been drafting a lot of Justin Jefferson lately. Have not been drafting a lot of Puka Nakua lately. Again, pushing those guys down because of either their own injuries or their quarterback injuries. So those would be the elite guys that I just have not drafted a lot of lately. The Chiefs receivers lately. Just because it seems as if Rice is clearly Patrick Mahomes guy and will that be worthy? How many games is he going to miss in terms of Rice? Like, it just kind of been a spot where I've been avoiding those guys.

[Dave]

Well, let me take a look at maybe the last week or so of NFC drafting.

[Heath]

Oh McLaren. I do not draft Terry McLaurin and I will not be drafting Terry McLaurin in anywhere close to where he's been drafted.

[Dave]

Okay. I want to see where, where Rasheed Rice is going because. Yeah, Jamie, you mentioned that he is looking great apparently. And he's Patrick Mahomes number one target. He does Have a groin issue right now, but he is currently. Wow. I mean, NFC ADP since August 1st she races is 49th overall. That's how. I don't know. I'm surprised by that.

[Heath]

Well, again, you're trying to win a tournament and so if you're trying to win a tournament and he only gets suspended for three games and you have 13, 14 games of that guy. Yeah, like you want that. So you have to go a little bit earlier.

[Dave]

All right. Where are you guys comfortable taking Rasheed Rice?

[Heath]

Round five?

[Jamie]

Yeah, it would have to be six or later for me.

[Dave]

Okay. All righty. Quick news and notes. Chris Godwin could miss a couple of weeks with an ankle injury. A couple of regular season weeks, so we'll see. Yeah, the Bucs situation is tough to crack. Khalil Shakir has a high ankle sprain. He could be ready for week one. Malik Neighbors. He's going to be missing some practices. Missing some practice time. He's just maintenance for his toe, which might require surgery in the off season. Cam Scatter Boo is out indefinitely with a hamstring injury for the Giants. Tyreek Hill missed practice with an undisclosed injury. Darren Waller could practice next week. Some players who have been getting a lot of buzz, they've been camp standouts. Remember, every year with rookies, rookies are always amazing. Tetaro McMillan, Matthew golden in particular, those three have been true standouts. And also Seattle rookie wide receiver Tori Horton has done pretty well, apparently in camp. Colts receiver Adonai Mitchell has had a very good training camp, according to Nate Atkins of the Indianapolis Star, and he should have a role in the offense. I mentioned Rashid Rice has another guy to take targets.

[Heath]

That's great.

[Dave]

I know Rasheed Rice has a groin injury. Marquis Brown dealing with a ankle injury, hopefully on his way back. And tough news for Mason Taylor. He's got an ankle sprain. A high ankle sprain. This is jets rookie tight end Mason Taylor. He's going to miss a few weeks, hopefully back for week one. All right, wide receiver strategy in different formats other than the 2 receiver, 3 receiver league. Jamie 9 half full PPR. How much differently are we drafting wide.

[Heath]

Receivers in full ppr? You can make a case. You said six are going in the first round. You can make a case for probably eight to go in the first round. You know, it just pushes up the elite guys as as we're going to talk about at some point over the next two days. Like there's. Even though we like that blob 20 through 40 to some degree, like there is a Pretty clear drop off where it starts to become a lot of questions. You know, the Olave questions, the Godwin questions, the Chiefs receivers questions like just it, it becomes a lot of ifs. How many games will Joe Flacco play to impact Jerry Judy and Cedric Tillman? Like just a lot of questions across the board. We'll get into that, I'm sure, tomorrow. But so in ppr, I think you want to try and get receivers early if you can. I think the widers, the running back depth is good enough this year that you can wait on that position a little bit more in half and non. I think it's gonna, you know, push those receivers down a little bit more half. Maybe not as much, but in. In non ppr. Like I, I went through and did a pretty big adjustment on my non PPR rankings last night and it was just so heavy. Running back related versus wide receiver related in the first like 50 to 80 picks. I don't remember exactly where it started to really shift, but a lot of guys in PPR that I like much better in that format than none. Not receivers, excuse me.

[Jamie]

The Blob gets much denser. The less catches are worth because receptions are one of the things that separate guys in projections and in fantasy production. And so in receptions are worth almost nothing. Wide receivers outside of the top 12 or 13, however many it is for you, are worth very, very little.

[Dave]

I know touchdowns can be difficult to predict, but when you're talking about non ppr, are you looking at these receivers and going, well, he's going to score touchdowns. He's not going to score touchdowns. You know, for example, are you, are you putting AJ Brown ahead of Pukinakua in non PPR because Nakua has had a touchdown problem?

[Heath]

Oh, yeah.

[Dave]

Yeah. Okay. And that is a weird thing with Nakua because he just doesn't get a lot of end zone targets. He gets a lot of red zone targets. He doesn't get green zone and end zone targets.

[Jamie]

That is not as much for me about the fact that Puka's not scored touchdowns as the fact that A.J. brown's just so efficient.

[Dave]

Right.

[Jamie]

And so he gets penalized by the lower targets because of the offense he's in. And that doesn't hurt him in on PPR.

[Heath]

Sure. And non PPR, like if you think anybody's going to score 10 touchdowns, like they get bumped up tremendously. So Metcalf, Sutton, Evans, Addison, when he's on the field, like Addison.

[Dave]

Yeah.

[Heath]

These guys, these guys are so much more valuable in those formats.

[Dave]

Question from Scott Would you guys be okay with someone like Jalen Waddle as your wide receiver too? Or is that a disadvantage if your.

[Heath]

Roster build is strong enough at the other positions? You know, especially if it's a two receiver league. So go back to that one team we referenced and just take out Tedro and McMillan and put in Jalen Waddle as that guy. So you go CD Lamb, Chase Brown, Bucky Irving, Chuba Hubbard Mahomes, quarterback, and then it's Jalen Waddle. Yeah, yeah. Or I'm sorry, Waddle then quarterback.

[Dave]

Oh, it was right. It was mimic Millen Mahomes. Yeah. How, how big of a difference is there between Teteroa, McMillan, Cortland Sutton, those guys that are going to be going round five, Jerry Judy compared to Jalen Waddle?

[Heath]

I. I don't know if Waddle and Judy is a good comparison because I think you can make a case that they're somewhat similar. Different ways, but somewhat similar. The other guys probably have more upside than Waddle at this point, but Waddle could. I don't say break fantasy, but if Tyree Kill is out, like, there's so much upside for Jalen Waddle. So I think he's, you know, if you want to talk about tears, like, I think he's in a tier behind McMillan and Sutton, Sutton, McMillan, in that order. But I think he's in the same tier with Jerry Judy. Judy could be amazing, but you take Joe Flacco off that team or out of the starting lineup and Jerry. Jesus scared the hell out of me.

[Jamie]

The other thing is, I don't think you can, like, it's just so hard to have these. How big of a difference is there between Jalen Waddle and somebody else? Because which Jalen Waddle are you getting? Yeah, he's a different guy every year.

[Dave]

Yeah. And okay, so Waddle in his career has finished as wide receiver 14, 22 and 56 per game in full PPR.

[Jamie]

But even the 14, 14 were in completely different ways.

[Dave]

Completely different ways. Absolutely.

[Heath]

And okay, the 22 is what you should be expecting if you're expecting to have a good season with Tyree Kill, helve nhn healthy.

[Dave]

But this is an important question and the reason why is if we say we want three top 40 wide receivers, you know, in a three in a two receiver league. I didn't really say how good the number two receiver should be. Right. Because I don't think we want stud wide receiver in round one and then wide receiver 38 and 39 in the consensus rankings as our next two receivers. Right. We want to go a little earlier than that. Waddle is wide receiver 31 in your consensus rankings. He is 25th for Heath, but he's closer to 31 for Dave and Jamie. That does feel like waiting a little too long to me anyway, for that second wide receiver thoughts.

[Heath]

I. I would agree, but again, you know, if you're gonna wait until what we keep calling the Blob to get that second receiver, like, I think, and this something I struggle with every time I look at my rankings because I think where Heath has Waddle is where he should start to come off the board, maybe even a couple spots earlier because there's a lot of buzz. You know, you want to talk about Guy having a good camp, as we discussed last week, I believe it was. Or maybe the start of the week, you know, he's going against a lot of maybe crappy cornerbacks from Miami, but he's having a good camp. And now John Smith is gone. So there's a shift in how this all could play out for the Dolphins receivers, maybe going back to what he's done earlier in his career. I just think that if you're waiting until the Blob, you know, so it could be. I'm trying to think like maybe Adam Read the. The consensus receivers 20 through 25.

[Dave]

Evans, D.J. moore, Xavier Worthy, Terry McLaurin, Jerry Judy, Devonte Smith.

[Heath]

So I don't think this is a bad second receiver, but it's also, again, for me, this is where the start of the questions come into play. So if you, if you were to say it's, it's Judy, it's McLaurin, it's DJ Moore. Like, there's, there's a lot of issues there, but clearly you should have your stud receiver, a lot of good talent at running back or quarterback and wide receiver or tight end. And then you have one of these guys as a second guy. I don't, I don't hate that, but I agree with you. I think if you're talking about it's Justin Jefferson, Ricky Pearsall and Romo Dunze, like, I don't love that.

[Dave]

Yeah, it could work, but.

[Heath]

It could absolutely work, but I just don't love it.

[Dave]

Right. All right, we're going to take a quick break. We'll do sleepers, breakouts and busts and auction values after this.

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[Dave]

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[Dave]

Sleeper wide receiver is Blank Heath.

[Jamie]

I think it has to be a Mecha Buka. He's still in round 10 according to our ADP. Maybe creeping up into round nine and eight in some drafts, but great chance to start the year hot with Chris Godwin potentially out. And Godwin's injury history and Evan's age means he may get a chance to be a top two wide receiver on the team for a majority of the season.

[Dave]

Okay, and there's obviously downside there, right? Because if Evans and Godwin are themselves and Jayla McMillan is a factor, then I could see Abuka having a JSN like rookie season which just wasn't very good and he had met. Exactly. That's what I was going to say. But. But I don't. But my, my follow up question was, you know, how. How early would be too early? If the buzz keeps picking up for.

[Jamie]

A Buka, I don't think I'll go past round eight.

[Dave]

Okay. You can give more than one sleeper if you want. Up to you. No? Okay, one sleeper. It is a mecca.

[Heath]

Buka Jamie, I give you 10. I'll go Demaro Douglas, you know, I think just the opportunity in Josh McDaniel's offense and he's still free on draft day to get what hopefully will be a go to option for Drake May like Stefan Diggs is obviously going to see some time in the slot and I'm sure they're gonna, you know, mix and match some of these guys. We'll see where Kyle Williams lies up. We'll see what happens with Matt Collins now that he's back. Very funny video by the way, on our social sites with Bryant McFadden talking about all Matt Collins quirky habits, walking barefoot, eating with no utensils, all those things. It's pretty funny. But in any event, I just think for a late round pick, one of your last picks, I don't know how much longer he'll be there, but I take a lot of demero Douglas.

[Dave]

Okay, Jamie, favorite breakout.

[Heath]

You're gonna hate it, but I'm gonna say rookie Tedro McMillan. I think just big opportunity here for the Panthers. He said it, I think it was yesterday or recently, one of the shows we've done, maybe it was CBS Sports Network that we saw it last year with Adam Thielen. When Bryce Young started to get hot, he, he was focusing on Thielen quite a bit, and Thielen's still there. They're, you know, seemingly getting good reports on Xavier Leguette and we may see, you know, Bryce Young spread the ball around. But I'm getting more and more excited about McMillan. Seems like he's having a strong camp, picking things up quickly, and drafted to be a significant playmaker right away. So I know we don't like saying rookies as breakouts, but I think he could have a top 20ish caliber season.

[Dave]

Do you anticipate moving him ahead of Cortland Sutton or DK Metcalf, two guys you mentioned earlier?

[Heath]

I don't, but he's getting closer to those guys. So he's in my top 24. He's 23 right now, and I could certainly see him moving past DJ Moore. Moving, I mean, no, no, DJ Moore's 22 for me. Moon past DJ Moore, moving past Xavier Worthy. You know, those type of guys, you know, the right situation will, will dictate the, the worthy spot. But I think, you know, there's a question in the chat. McMillan's around 5 target.

[Dave]

For me, it's an interesting round because you, you have guys that we think could be breakouts. Right? So it's, it's McMillan, Xavier Worthy, Jameson Williams had is just getting a lot of hype. How do you, how do you rank those three? So, so you said you might move Worthy, you might move them ahead of Worthy, but right now, McMillan Worthy, Jameson Williams, how do you rank them?

[Heath]

Right now it's worthy, McMillan, Williams, and again, if you just want to say number one, Chiefs receiver, McMillan, Williams. So worthy will stay ahead of him if Rice is suspended for more than three games. Rice will fly ahead of him if it's three games or less. And I will take McMillan over Williams.

[Dave]

Right now, I'm getting pretty pumped about McMillan. Earlier I said I like to get Jameson Williams. I might have to change that to Tetero McMillan. It's a tough one. Heath, how do you rank that group? Chiefs receivers, Jameson Tet, Auroa Worthy, Teteroa Jameson. Okay. All right. So who's your favorite breakout? Heath?

[Jamie]

I mean I think in terms of guys who. The guy who I have the ranked the highest that could potentially be a breakout, it would be Worthy. And it just comes down to Jamie said it like we don't have any idea how long Rashi Rice is going to be suspended. It was easier with Addison because it was substance related and they've got pretty specific terms for that. Rice's situation is a little bit murkier and so if, if we get a six game suspension for Rashi Rice then Xavier Worthy at wide receiver 21 or 22 might be a steal. He was phenomenal down the stretch last year. He has improved his short area route running as well. So if Rice is out or they can do more of that and he's the best deep threat on the.

[Dave]

This really sucks because I really want all of these players. So you try to take two of them as maybe one of them falls to round six. But the problem is if you do that well, you're not.

[Jamie]

You do what Jamie said he does with DK and Sutton, which I've got both DK and Sutton ahead of these guys in round four. But if you want to draft the young, exciting guys, you take one of them in round four, one of them in round five.

[Dave]

I don't know if I want to take one of them in round four.

[Jamie]

You can't draft two of them.

[Dave]

Well, you might be able to draft one of them in round six because ADP, let's see. McMillan's 66th overall. That's round six.

[Jamie]

That's going the opposite direction. That's not going to last.

[Dave]

Jameson Williams is 62nd.

[Heath]

I don't see him moving where he's 57th.

[Dave]

But the other problem is I really want to take RJ Harvey and Travion Henderson and they're going right in that range too.

[Heath]

So I, I think depending on when you draft Harvey's ADP is going to fall a little bit. Now with the depth heart stupidity. You said Henderson, Henderson will probably hang in this range. I don't think he'll go up too much unless there's a Stevenson injury. A lot of it's going to be dictated by once the, the, the, you know, the, the, the, the fantasy world starts drafting and the quarterbacks get all pushed up in this range and you know, Travis Kelce and Sam Laporta get pushed up in this range like it's, it's going to change a lot of. So you might be able to. I just want to Go back some because you mentioned Jordan at the suspension. I think we talked. You mentioned this. He has said he's not going to appeal it, right?

[Dave]

I didn't say that. You're right.

[Heath]

So he's going to be out three games and I know we'll talk about this more tomorrow, but I think we should bring it up because we had the podcast on this. He comes back, week four, they face the Steelers. No way, shape or form is that going to be easy. No matter how well McCarthy's playing. Week five at Cleveland. Fine, you're maybe starting him there. Week six is their buy. You may not have Jordan Addison in your starting lineup until week seven.

[Dave]

That's a good point.

[Jamie]

So.

[Dave]

You know, it'll be fun if I did an auction draft and I just, I got Henderson, Harvey, Teddy Roll, McMillan, like all these guys.

[Jamie]

And I was going to make you an offer actually that in the next real draft that we do together, I'll just trade you my fourth and fifth round pick so you can have four of these guys and you give me your first, then you get four of the guys you really want. You don't have to.

[Dave]

So nice of you. Yeah, that's really nice of you.

[Heath]

Would you trade your fourth and fifth.

[Dave]

And.

[Heath]

Eighth for his first, his 10th and his 11th?

[Dave]

Yeah. Oh, that's pretty appealing. I don't think I'd do it. Okay, so let's, let's talk about.

[Heath]

Wow, that's. I think you'd have an awesome team that way because it could work. But let's talk about like you, you come away with. I know we're going off track here. I don't care. You come away with. Well, I'll make it this all receivers. So you go, you're wanting, you want Harvey.

[Dave]

Can we please do the bus though?

[Heath]

No, you want Harvey and Henderson, right?

[Dave]

Yeah.

[Heath]

Okay, so round two you go. Round two you go.

[Dave]

Heath, who's the going to be the biggest bust this year?

[Jamie]

Yeah, I think it's. For me. I, I hate to say it, but amongst the guys being drafted in round one, I think it's a Monroe St. Brown.

[Dave]

I don't think he's actually going to bust.

[Jamie]

It's like Jamie calling Saquon Barkley a bust on the running back show. And he still thinks you should draft him at the end of round one. So he doesn't think he's going to be terrible. I don't think St. Brown's gonna be terrible, but I, I do think it's the offense. Even if Ben Johnson was there, I would project to be slightly worse than it was last year because it was historically great. I expect they're going to score probably 10 fewer touchdowns at least. And then you've got the loss of their pro all pro center and you've got the loss of Ben Johnson and Jameson Williams emergence. And I just. And Saint Brown touchdown regression. And I just think that he's going to be a low end wide receiver one and not a top five guy.

[Dave]

I think that's one of the big takeaways from today's show. Some of them would be you can, you can wait in a three in a two receiver league and you know, anchor yourself with a kind of a hero or wide receiver strategy. You can do that in a two receiver league. We don't recommend that in a three receiver league. We still think there's some very good wide receivers close to 40th overall in our rankings. We think that drafters are too high on Amon Ross St. Brown because he's wide receiver 4. And the highest guy amongst the three of Dave Jamie Heath on Saint Brown is Dave who has him as wide receiver 7. We think there are anywhere from eight to ten elite wide receivers and we'd like to get one of them but we can make it work. If we don't. That's kind of, that's kind of it I think for some of the major takeaways. But St. Brown on an individual level is one that really stands out. And also I think we like the round five wide receivers. We hope we pick the right one because DK Metcalf, Courtland Sutton, Xavier Worthy, Tettero McMillan, Jameson Williams, Browns. These are rounds five and six. We like these guys a lot. Jamie, a bus call for you.

[Heath]

Terry McLaurin. The history of hold ins, hold outs scares me. The touchdown spike last year compared to his other numbers, his other metrics. Look, he's playing with the best quarterback of his career and it's going to be a situation that he should still get featured. But you have two things for me working against him. Regression and not practicing. And he's outside my top. He's in the blob.

[Dave]

I gotta ask about someone. All right, recap real quick. Jamie said sleeper. Emeka buka, breakout. Teddy McMillan, no sleeper to Mario Douglas, breakout. Tedro McMillan, Terry McLaurin bust. For Heath it was a mecca. Buka sleeper. Xavier Worthy breakout. Aman Ross ain't Brown bust. We haven't really said Marvin Harrison junior's name. More likely to be a breakout or a bust in round four.

[Heath]

Break out for me.

[Jamie]

I'M gonna say bust. And it has nothing to do with Marvin Harrison Jr. It just. I'd like some indication that the offense is going to change because the offensive plan for Marvin Harrison last year was not one that's going to lead to a breakout from around 4.

[Dave]

More likely to be a breakout, a bust, or just return his ADP in round four. I should have said that.

[Heath]

Breakup.

[Jamie]

I think he's like, I've got him in round five. So I guess I'd say bust, but I think it's fine. And, like, he's great.

[Dave]

Is he?

[Jamie]

I think he is.

[Dave]

I hope so.

[Jamie]

But I also don't like this whole Kyler running more thing for him.

[Dave]

Yeah. Kyler has had years where he's run a lot. And, you know, DeAndre Hopkins has been great, but there's a tight end that.

[Jamie]

He was throwing the ball to 120 times.

[Dave]

Exactly.

[Jamie]

Or 150.

[Dave]

50. Right? Exactly. All right, auction talk real quick. So how much are the elite guys going for for you? $100 budget PPR 25 plus.

[Jamie]

Yeah. I'll pull up my actual auction values here. And I've got 30 on Chase and Lamb.

[Dave]

How much on Brian Thomas Jr. 26. How much for Ted Rollo McMillan?

[Heath]

7 to 10.

[Jamie]

8.

[Dave]

So you could get McMillan Worthy, Sutton and Metcalf for maybe a little more than Chase. Right?

[Heath]

Yep.

[Dave]

It's kind of a fun concept there. Auctions are super fun. Just don't be the auctioneer and also be drafting. That did not go well for me last year. Try to get a auctioneer who's not in the league.

[Jamie]

What do you mean? We did a live auction by auctioneer.

[Dave]

We did a live auction. We didn't use the computers. Okay. And I was like, you know, taking the bid, saying the players taking the bids, trying to put the stickers on the draft board. That didn't work. And also trying to draft a team. And it just.

[Jamie]

So my uncle was an actual auctioneer.

[Dave]

Oh.

[Jamie]

And could do the voice and everything. Did you. Did you attempt to do the voice, the speed thing? Yeah, we've heard you do the fast reads. It seems like you could do that.

[Dave]

I. I was at a restaurant. I'm doing it in my house this year.

[Heath]

Why didn't you just do it on the computer?

[Dave]

Computer people wanted to do a live auction.

[Heath]

No, still do it live.

[Dave]

The WI fi wasn't ideal. It just didn't work out. That's why we're going to. One of the reasons why we're going to do it at my house. Okay. So we Got a little time left here. Do we want to get into some round one players or save that for tomorrow? I think let's do round one players.

[Heath]

Yeah.

[Dave]

Okay. Jamar Chase. Just give me 10 seconds. Jamie. Go.

[Heath]

Triple Crown winner last year. Amazing system, amazing player, has a chance to Repeat as wide receiver 1.

[Dave]

If I were going to give you guys, Jamar Chase or the next five wide receivers in ADP to finish as a wide receiver one, who would you take?

[Heath]

So those would be Jefferson, Lamb, St. Brown and Puka.

[Dave]

And Neighbors. And Neighbors.

[Jamie]

I'll take the five.

[Heath]

I would take the five because I think Lamb can get there.

[Dave]

He's the only one who's wide receiver two for you. CD Lamb has averaged. Let me. Let's just so you know, PPR points per game. Chase was at 23.7. Rasheed Rice was at 21.6, Chris Godwin 19.7. But for the ones who actually played closer to full seasons, no one topped 19 points per game last year, except for Chase. 2023, you had CD Lamb at 23.8. You had Tyree kill 23.7, Keenan Allen, 21.1. You actually had five wide receivers at 20 or more. So last year wasn't amazing for the elite wide receivers. It was good. But anyway, CD Lamb has been, I want to say at least 18 and a half PPR fantasy points per game. And sometimes a lot more than that with Dak Prescott three straight years. Prescott misses a lot of time, if you care. But ranking chase, ranking lamb 2 basically says you don't think George Pickens is going to affect him, right?

[Jamie]

Right.

[Heath]

No, I think that. How many passes do you have them projected for Heath?

[Jamie]

610.

[Heath]

And that would put them where?

[Jamie]

610. Exactly. Wow. And that puts them third.

[Heath]

I think that's fair. And with a run game, that's going to be questionable. A defense that might be questionable if Dax stays healthy. Offensive line is questionable, too. So keep that in mind. If Dax stays healthy, I would be surprised if they all don't have an opportunity. And all meaning Lamb, Pickens and Ferguson have an opportunity to be fairly successful in their respective tiers.

[Dave]

They've been top five in pass attempts in four the last five seasons. Go ahead, Heath.

[Jamie]

And I think it was 245 passes last year when they threw 637. So 245 passes went to non CD Lamb wide receivers last year.

[Heath]

Right. You brought this up recently of the Jalen, Tolbert, Brandon Cooks, you know, group. Now, Tolbert, I think is still gonna factor in, but I think that's more of a Ferguson Pickens situation more so than a Lamb situation. Like the way Lamb looks right now in camp. You know, Adam, you brought this up about how we always hear about the rookies and when you hear something about the veterans, it's either very, very positive or just completely awful. Like he's dominating.

[Dave]

Yeah, I'm not surprised. But, you know, he's never had a number two receiver like George Pickens, so also, I think. But he wasn't. But okay. Yeah, that's true. But he wasn't great at that point. Over the last three years, CD Lamb has really broken out. The number two receiver on the team has been a tight end, so he's never had this since he's broken out and been a stud. He's also finished higher than wide receiver 8 once in his career, for what it's worth. But I'm not gonna argue with you. All right, who's number three for you guys?

[Jamie]

Jefferson.

[Heath]

Jefferson.

[Dave]

Four.

[Heath]

Nico for me.

[Jamie]

This is where it could be just about anybody. But I am making the change. It's neighbors.

[Dave]

Oh, wow.

[Jamie]

I had Puka.

[Dave]

You had Puka. Now it's neighbors. Jamie has Nico. Heath slower on Nico because of injuries.

[Jamie]

Because a little bit of injuries. I think it's. It's hard to just focus on his per game stuff when he's never played a full season and he generally has one to two personal games per season. But also I. I'm a little bit scared just of the Texans offense with this offensive line and their current running back situation. It might just be a really bad.

[Heath]

Offense or it could be the Cowboys.

[Dave]

I mean, here's the point. Here's the thing about the Cowboys. I wasn't going to bring this up, but you did the first eight weeks of the season. This is Dak Prescott being healthy. They were 20th in scoring. Their offensive line is worse and they hired in house. I really wanted to see them get a new offensive coordinator, get a new philosophy, but they didn't. So, I mean, they have a new offensive coordinator, but they promoted their coordinator to head coach. So, you know, Dak Prescott's been kind of bad by his standards in two of the last three seasons. Is it possible that this is not the Cowboys? The Cowboys have been a bedrock for football, for fantasy football offensively for, I don't know, most of the last 20 years. You know, there probably still will be, but I at least wanted to bring that up, that they were 20th in points per game last year with Dakota and they've got, I would say they're on paper, and judging by the preseason ratings, their worst offensive line a long time. Something to think about, I think.

[Heath]

To your point, though, how much was McCarthy calling plays versus Schottenheimer?

[Dave]

Yeah, I don't know. And I think Pickens is really going to help them, too. Okay, so. So top three are Lamb, Chase, Jefferson for both of you. Number four is Nico for Jamie. It's Nakua for Dave, and it was Puka for Heath. But now it's Neighbors. So why the switch there?

[Jamie]

Just a little. I mean, I've kind of just stuck my head in the sand on the Matthew Stafford stuff, but at some point, we're probably gonna have to stop doing that. And I've loved everything I've heard out of Giants camp about Russell Wilson and Malik Neighbors. I've been the Russ guy the last couple of years and think he's better than what the perception is of him, and it's an enormous upgrade over what the Giants had last year. And Neighbors was incredible with those awful quarterbacks.

[Dave]

He was pretty damn good. What's a bigger concern for you, though? Malik, Neighbors toe or Matthew Stafford's back?

[Jamie]

I haven't really seen anything that suggests that Malik Neighbors toe is going to, like, keep him from playing this year. I think they're just trying to keep it from being flared up at the start of the season.

[Heath]

So I think your theory, though, is right, Adam, that if they suck, Shocker, if that happens, that he shuts it down.

[Dave]

Well, no, I. Okay, that's a possibility. My bigger fear is if they suck and they have the hardest schedule in the NFL on paper, by the way, they go to Jackson Dart. And if Jackson Dart were the quarterback, I do not think we would have Pukinaku a fourth.

[Jamie]

I think Jackson Dart, my best guess is that he's a lot better than anybody who played quarterback for him last year.

[Dave]

I completely agree. Neighbors was wide receiver 8 per game last year with a just dreadful offense. But he did struggle at the end of the year. I mean, the last two games I think were great, but he had a stretch where he really struggled because, believe it or not, there was a big downgrade from Daniel Jones to Tommy DeVito, Drew Locke, whoever else they had. But he, you know, he had. He had about 11 targets per game. What is it about Russell Wilson? He just doesn't throw that much like the last two years. I know they had Arthur. He had an Arthur Smith here, right? But like Sean Payton, he let a rookie Bo Nicks throw like three more passes per game than Russell Wilson. Russell Wilson's usually 31, 32 passes per game. I, I don't know why. I don't get it, but it keeps happening.

[Heath]

I don't think Peyton loved that Russ holds the ball as much as he does.

[Dave]

Maybe, maybe. But Giants actually did throw a lot of passes last year. 8th and pass attempts. Okay, so why Neighbors over Brian Thomas Jr. Brian Thomas Jr. Had a lot better rates than Neighbors last year. And Brian Thomas Jr's quarterback situation could improve a lot too, because the Jaguars had a horrible passing offense last year.

[Jamie]

Well, in. The quarterback he was really good with isn't going to be the starter, so it might be worse.

[Dave]

That's true. I mean.

[Jamie]

No, I mean, there's a very obvious answer to this. The number two pick in the draft was a wide receiver that joined Brian Thomas Jr. And Malik Neighbors got three new quarterbacks and no new target competition.

[Dave]

I think for the people that are in the Neighbor's camp, they're looking at Devonte Adams going to the Rams, they're looking at Travis Hunter going to the Jaguars, and they're looking at nobody going to the Giants. Right. That's your case for.

[Heath]

Yeah, I mean, it's quarterback. It's easy just to look at it that way. I mean, I have them back to back. I have neighbors 5 and Thomas 6. So I'm with you, Adam. Like, I, I think there's, you know, you, you see, if you're looking at the average draft position on fantasy Pros, Neighbors is 10th and Thomas is 15th. Like, I, I think they should be closer together just because you look at the way Thomas finished last season and his target share was close to what Neighbors was getting. Not the same, but it was pretty close. Now, again, there was no Hunter, so factor that in. But also, you know, you're, you're looking at Liam Cohen's system and it's here's two guys, let's get them the ball as much as we can. You know, that was the case last year with Godwin and Evans healthy and then Evans and McMillan down the stretch. So there's just a lot to love about Brian Thomas situation. And again, another guy right now, he's a little bit banged up. I, I think it's, you know, maintenance, but by all accounts having a dominant camp.

[Dave]

And if you like Thomas, you know, close to as much as you like Neighbors or Saint Brown or whatever, this does free you up to take a running back in round one if you want, and then just say, I'll play the board and hopefully Thomas or Nico falls me because they're both going about 14th or 15th overall. And then AJ Brown, you know, in the Heath camp, he's even a little bit later than that. So we got St Brown who we think should be going toward the end of this group. Puka Neighbors Brian Thomas Jr. Nico Collins. Anything you guys want to say about these guys? Who's got the most upside out of Puka neighbors? Nico, Brian Thomas Jr.

[Heath]

I think the two second year guys.

[Dave]

Not Puka because like Puka had a better rookie season. Those guys were such great rookies. Puka was better and last year he was 18.8 points per game or something like that.

[Heath]

Well, I, I, I think just based on the way you're framing it, at least in my mind, I think those guys can get to another level. You know, like we just said, if neighbor's target share remains the same and now he's got better quarterback play, like why can't he get better? And if, you know, Thomas builds off the way that last year ended, Hunter there or not, why can't he be that guy? Like there's, there's a way for it to happen. Like I think Nakua is going to be awesome. If Stafford's fine.

[Dave]

Yeah.

[Heath]

But I see a little bit more downside for him by comparison in terms of just getting to another level. Like 18 points per game I think is where Puka is going to be, which is awesome. Great. I don't, I don't mind him back into round one. I'm a little lower on him than overall, but still love him.

[Dave]

Just kind of funny, you know. Puka Nakua has the best rookie season in history and then he follows it up. He's wide receiver four per game and two of the guys ahead of him were Chris Godwin and Rasheed Rice. So amongst players who played more than half the season, he's wide receiver two per game and there are doubters. And honestly, he had the fifth highest explosive play rate among wide receivers. He, he doesn't do it the same way. He's not making plays downfield on bombs. But he's amazing after the catch. He's, he had the second highest yards per out run in the last 12 years.

[Jamie]

I don't think there's doubters of Puka's talent. There's doubters of the fact that his quarterback currently has a slipped or herniated disc and he's 37 years old.

[Dave]

But, but would you have answered Puka before the Stafford News? Because I do feel like people doubt.

[Jamie]

I just a little bit. I had Puka at wide receiver four Just moments ago.

[Dave]

Yeah. The upside question though, would you have said that he had more upside than neighbors?

[Jamie]

I. I don't know. I mean they all. I think it's splitting hairs really.

[Dave]

All right, fair enough. We talked about Nico and A.J. brown earlier. Jamie, you want to weigh in on Nico vs. A.J. brown?

[Heath]

I mean I, I said where I haven't ranked, you know, so Nico's fourth for me. So I would take Nico over A.J. brown with the sort. Eileen, sort of toward where you're coming from. Like this could be his best year yet. Just clearly has to stay healthy. But if, if he does with everything that's around, like I know you like Christian Kirk and you know, Jaden Higgins could be certainly a player and Jalen Noel, you know, could have a good rookie season. Like there's. There's a lot of ifs. There, there's. There's one certainty. You know, Stefan Diggs coming in with what he is. His resume was and the relationship that Stroud and Tank Dell had. Have but you know, had on the field. And I don't think it's the same. I think Nico's gonna maybe have his best year yet.

[Jamie]

It is interesting because I was looking at this Adam, when you were talking about how many more pass attempts there are in the Texans offense and it really matters for catch. Obviously they threw 570 passes last year. The Eagles threw 448 which is just an insane difference. But the difference in their team passing yards was 332 yards. The Eagles had four more passing touchdowns than the Texans did.

[Dave]

Yeah, I would, I would. You're 100, right. And A.J. brown missed time last year. I was going to say Nico missed a lot of time. Stefan Diggs missed time, Tank Dell miss time. But so did A.J. brown. So did Devonte. So. So did Dallas Goddard. I do think we. We need CJ Stroud to play somewhere in between years one and year two. Right. He can't be as bad as he was last year.

[Jamie]

And I also like 400 and this might be wrong and it could be part of the reason that I'm higher on AJ Brown. But 448 pass attempts for the Eagles last year. I. Even though, yes they won the super bowl and they're going to stay run heavy. I think I have them projected for the second or third fewest pass attempts. I think they're probably going to throw quite a few more. They were 563 the year before. Yeah, I, I wouldn't be surprised if they're 480 or 490.

[Heath]

I I also think if you look at the start of the season when Nico was healthy, Stroud was playing better, too.

[Dave]

He was playing better. My theory is just that Nico Collins was not himself after the hamstring injury. I can't really prove that. But his numbers were not as good as. And we just, I don't know, we've kind of seen it. Like, remember in the was it the playoffs last year? Tankdale wasn't playing or something like that. Or two years ago? Maybe I'm wrong. I don't know.

[Heath]

He had a tank. Dell got hurt in the Chiefs game in the regular season?

[Dave]

No. But two years ago, did Tankdale miss the playoff game? I can't remember. Probably did, yeah, because he broke his leg right at one point and Nico, like was the number one guy. And I'm doing this off the top of my head so I could be wrong and I'm just going to shut up and end the show. All right. Thank you so much to Jamie and Heath and Thomas for producing this wonderful episode. Thanks so much for watching and listening. Wide Receivers Part two will start with with round two on tomorrow's show. And we also have a mailbag that we're recording tonight. It's going to publish on Saturday, but we're gonna record it on Thursday night at 10:30pm Eastern. It's gonna be a wild one. Have a good one, Everybody.

[Jamie]

Paramount Podcasts September 4th on Paramount + someone is trying to frame us until.

[Heath]

Our names are clear.

[Dave]

More fugitives from Interval like Bonnie and.

[Jamie]

Clyde with better snacks. NCIS Tony and Ziva streaming September 4th on Paramount Plus.