Winners, Losers, Controversial Calls, Coaching Hires and More (01/27 Fantasy Football Podcast)

Summary

Fantasy Football Today Podcast Summary
Episode: Winners, Losers, Controversial Calls, Coaching Hires and More (January 27, 2025)

Hosted by Adam Aizer, alongside analysts Dave Richard, Jamey Eisenberg, Heath Cummings, and the rest of the CBS Sports Fantasy Football crew, this episode delves deep into the outcomes of the recent conference championships, analyzes coaching changes across the NFL, and provides insightful fantasy football advice. Below is a comprehensive summary of the key discussions, insights, and conclusions from the episode.

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1. Super Bowl Predictions and Team Sentiments

The episode opens with a candid discussion about the upcoming Super Bowl 59 between the Kansas City Chiefs and the Philadelphia Eagles. Host Adam Aizer expresses unexpected sentiments towards the Chiefs:

Adam [02:08]: "I just hate this upcoming Super Bowl. I just hate it."

He elaborates on his frustration with officiating decisions that seemingly favored the Chiefs, leading him to reconsider his support:

Adam [03:03]: "It's not a conspiracy. It's not a higher-up thing. It just keeps happening. I can't take it."

Conversely, Heath Cummings offers praise for Eagles' quarterback Jalen Hurts, highlighting his remarkable performance metrics:

Heath [04:28]: "Jalen Hurts is remarkable. Was fantastic. 55 points in a conference championship game."

This sets the stage for a nuanced discussion on team performances and player impacts as they head into the Super Bowl.

2. Analyzing Key Player Performances

Jalen Hurts and James Cook

Heath commends Jalen Hurts for leading the NFL in rushing touchdowns over the past four years and his exceptional playoff performance:

Heath [04:28]: "In his last 17 playoff games, he has 16 touchdowns and one turnover."

The conversation shifts to running back James Cook, with Heath advocating for Cook's consistent performance despite limited touches:

Heath [05:02]: "James Cook was the best player. Like that game might be a blowout if James Cook isn't on the team."

Adam echoes this sentiment, noting Cook's significant contributions:

Adam [11:50]: "Xavier Worthy with a big game yesterday... but what makes Cook stand out is his limited but impactful involvement."

Chiefs’ Defensive Struggles

The team analyzes the Chiefs' defensive challenges, particularly against the run, which have persisted over the past five weeks:

Heath [08:24]: "There were five fumbles in that Chiefs-Bills game last night. The Bills recovered all five of them."

Adam highlights the Chiefs' decline from being the best run defense to struggling significantly:

Adam [08:59]: "They are struggling against the run right now. It's been like five weeks."

3. Impact of Coaching Hires Across the NFL

A significant portion of the episode is dedicated to recent coaching changes and their potential impacts on various NFL teams:

• Pete Carroll to the Las Vegas Raiders
• Liam Cohen to the Jacksonville Jaguars
• Brian Schottenheimer to the Dallas Cowboys
• Clint Kubiak to the Seattle Seahawks
• Aaron Glenn to the New York Jets

Pete Carroll's Transition:

The crew discusses Pete Carroll's history of a run-heavy offense and speculates on how his philosophy will translate to the Raiders:

Adam [23:03]: "Pete Carroll has a reputation of being very run-heavy... I'm curious to see how he'll adjust with the Raiders."

Brian Schottenheimer’s Promotion:

Schottenheimer's promotion to Cowboys' head coach is scrutinized, especially concerning offensive creativity:

Jamie [26:07]: "It's a very uninspiring hire. You have to shake things up... I'm not sure he’s the answer to solve their offensive woes."

Liam Cohen with the Jaguars:

Heath expresses optimism about Cohen's ability to enhance the Jaguars' offensive strategies:

Jamie [20:03]: "I would hope it's everybody in Jacksonville getting an offensive mind that can hopefully improve the run game."

4. Fantasy Football Winners and Losers

The analysts identify standout performers and underperformers from the conference championships, providing valuable insights for fantasy managers.

Winners:

• Xavier Worthy

  Jamie [10:34]: "Xavier Worthy continues to look like a star in the waiting... he may end up being the better pick because he's going to go later than Rice."

• James Cook

  Heath [12:39]: "James Cook done so much with somewhat limited work for a top 12 running back."

Losers:

• Isaiah Pacheco

  Heath [16:35]: "I don't think you can draft him as a top 15 running back and I'm not sure he's going to be drafted as a top 18 running back."

• Dalton Kincaid

  Jamie [17:18]: "Dalton Kincaid just continues to look like an absolute bust... it was a bad year and a bad playoffs."

Player Comparisons and Draft Strategies:

A heated comparison between James Cook and Jonathan Taylor highlights their fantasy value:

Jamie [14:05]: "They're very similar in terms of... James Cook has a little bit more to offer given his offense."

Adam discusses drafting strategies, emphasizing the importance of considering player performance and team dynamics:

Adam [11:50]: "Xavier Worthy was round five pick in both of our January drafts... does that mean he’ll be a top 60 pick?"

5. Terry McLaurin’s Performance Review

The episode features an in-depth analysis of Washington's Terry McLaurin, focusing on his statistics and future outlook:

Heath [33:58]: "Terry McLaurin had a 11% touchdown rate this season, which is significantly higher than his career average of 3.5%."

Jamie’s Perspective:

Jamie evaluates McLaurin's role and potential in Washington's offense:

Jamie [31:59]: "Terry McLaurin is a pretty normal year... if you go running back, tight end receiver, maybe your second receiver to me is ideal."

Adam’s Take on Touchdowns:

Adam emphasizes McLaurin's end-zone targets and touchdown efficiency:

Adam [34:12]: "He had the seventh most end zone targets in the NFL and he had the most touchdown catches on his end zone targets of anyone in football."

6. Listener Questions and Mailbag Highlights

The hosts address listener-submitted questions, providing personalized fantasy football advice.

Trade Evaluation: Ricky Piercos and Taje Spears for Isaiah Pacheco and Brandon Ayuk

Heath [41:18]: "C minus if it's 1 QB, C plus if it's super flex."

Jamie [41:29]: "I don't like to move down for a player coming off an ACL tear and a broken leg."

The consensus suggests caution in making such trades, especially considering player health and value.

Drafting Keon Coleman vs. Khalil Shakir

Jamie [37:59]: "He has one of those type of seasons that bumps him from wide receiver would say 36, 37, to wide receiver, 26, 28, you know, in that range."

Heath [38:02]: "The floor is pretty safe for him. The ceiling is just not that high."

The advisors lean towards Khalil Shakir over Keon Coleman, citing higher upside and reliability.

7. Final Thoughts and Closing Remarks

The episode concludes with reflections on team performances, player trades, and upcoming fantasy football strategies. Adam humorously navigates his conflicted feelings towards the Chiefs and Eagles, emphasizing the emotional rollercoaster that accompanies fantasy football discussions.

Adam [47:20]: "Does anybody knows how powerful urges can be, it's me. Catch Dexter Morgan in a new serial killer origin story."

Heath [47:48]: "That's really, really... I'm really happy for him."

The hosts encourage listeners to engage further through emails and social media, ensuring continuous interaction and support for the fantasy football community.

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Conclusion

This episode of Fantasy Football Today offers a blend of strategic fantasy football analysis, candid team and player evaluations, and insightful discussions on NFL coaching dynamics. Whether you're a seasoned manager or a newcomer aiming to dominate your league, the insights provided by Adam Aizer and his team are invaluable for making informed decisions ahead of the fantasy football season.

Transcript

[Adam]

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[Heath]

This is Fantasy Football Today from CBS Sports.

[Jamie]

What a play.

[Adam]

Can you believe this?

[Heath]

No, I can't. It's time to dominate your fantasy.

[Adam]

This is gonna go the distance.

[Heath]

Now here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie and Heath.

[Adam]

Super Bowl X is set. Super Bowl 59. It'll be the Chiefs and the Eagles the rematch. And we welcome you to Fantasy Football Today presented by BetMGM, the sportsbook born in Vegas. I just realized something. I think the camaraderie that we have on this show is really important to me. You know, after the game yesterday, I just Had a really nasty, sour taste in my mouth from that game. And I was just in a bad mood. I just. I really hate this upcoming Super Bowl. I just hate it. But seeing you guys, chatting with you guys before this show put me in a better mood. It's nice to have friends, I guess. But I. I went from really liking the Chiefs. I hate the Chiefs now. I might root for the Eagles. That's where I am. I might root for the Eagles. And I said to my wife, rooting for the Eagles is like drinking poison. And I might drink poison in two weeks. So that's. That's my. That's my headspace right now. That's where I am. Sorry.

[Jamie]

Why do you hate the Chiefs? Just because they win?

[Adam]

No, I. Everything changed with that. The ruling on the field stance. Like, soon as they. As soon as they upheld that ruling, I just started hating them. I can't. I can't take it anymore with such a first down and it just. It just was a first down and they get all the calls. They get all the calls. I can't take it. I.

[Jamie]

So you're your team refs.

[Adam]

It's not. No. It's not a conspiracy. It's not a higher up thing. It just keeps happening. I don't believe the game is fixed, but I'm getting tired of it. And now I think the Eagles are going to win because I think the Eagles are going to get the calls now. I feel like it's going to go against the Chiefs now because there's going to be so much scrutiny to a level never before. But I also think the Eagles are better. So my initial pick is the Eagles, and I don't. I still don't know who I'm rooting for. Heath, how are you doing? Congratulations.

[Heath]

You know, I. I want to just start with. I hope that now we can give Jalen Hurts a little bit of credit. Don't start like this guy. 46 and 20 as a starter in the NFL. 46 and 20. Headed to his second Super bowl at 26 years old. Leads the NFL in rushing touchdowns over the last four years and tied for fourth and yards per pass attempt over that same stretch. In his last 17 playoff games, he has 16 touchdowns and one turnover.

[Adam]

Yeah.

[Heath]

Jalen Hurts is remarkable. Was fantastic. 55 points in a conference championship game.

[Jamie]

Wow.

[Adam]

And he was the highest scoring quarterback of the week. 34 fantasy points. Everyone was good. Daniels, 26. Hertz, 34. Allen, 24. Mahomes, 31. Mahomes. Only 26 pass attempts and he ran two touchdowns. In so it was a good. The high scoring week. That's not what we wanted to hear from Heath. I see this tweet from. He's like so upset for James Cook. He was so great. Like, you get the hell out of here.

[Heath]

James Cook was the best player. Like that game might be a blowout if James Cook isn't on the team. 99 of the running backs in the NFL do not score a touchdown on that fourth and goal at the one that he. That he turned into a touchdown. And he averaged like 8.7 yards per touch. Like, he was awesome. And you know, I'm. I'm a big James Cook guy.

[Jamie]

If you. If you think about the last two AFC championship games, that's almost the same play where Zay Flower fumbles.

[Adam]

Wow. Yeah, well, it wasn't like the dive.

[Jamie]

The dive into the end zone. Yeah.

[Adam]

Very different play. But yeah, that and was right.

[Heath]

What do you want to hear from me, Adam? Just being like.

[Adam]

Just be it. You're always an obnoxious Chiefs fan. Don't stop now.

[Heath]

I just like. The only thing I don't understand is I hate the Chiefs now because I think when they went to the official review in New York, they got it wrong. And so now I hate the Chiefs.

[Adam]

It doesn't make any sense.

[Heath]

The other thing I don't understand is, yeah, there's 13 minutes left in the game and they got a fourth and one call wrong at the 40 yard line. And what we've seen for the last half of decade and what we saw in this game certainly tells us that that would have made all the difference. And there's no way the Chiefs could have ever recovered from them getting that fourth and one at midfield.

[Adam]

Oh, yeah.

[Heath]

Like, there's no way the Chiefs win the game if they just got the fourth and one.

[Adam]

Of course.

[Jamie]

Of course. I don't think that's the worst call, to be honest with you. I think it's the. The ball that hits the ground on the. Where they, you know, that was.

[Heath]

That was the best thing that could have happened to the Bills if. If that ball. If they'd been called incomplete, the Chiefs would have accepted the holding penalty that they called on Demar Hamlin. They would have had first and 10 at the 25. Buffalo wouldn't have got the ball back at the end of the half.

[Adam]

Yeah, no, obviously they could have won. And I don't know. It doesn't make any sense for this to be the thing that puts me over the edge, but I just. I just like. And I think My heart breaks for the Bills too. I think that's the other part of it. Again, I'm not a Chiefs hater. I got nothing against the Chiefs.

[Jamie]

That's not how you started.

[Heath]

You hate the Chiefs.

[Adam]

I'm not a Chiefs hater, but I'm mad at them. I think I'm just mad at them. I'm just really mad. It's not their fault, but I'm, I'm sick of it. And I really wanted the Bills to win, but I do think the Eagles are the better team now. I thought the. We all. I feel like a lot of us, maybe all of us felt like the Niners were a better team last year, but I think we all picked the Chiefs. And the thing was like The Niners had McCaffrey and the Chiefs last year couldn't stop the run and right now they can't stop the run. And the Eagles have Barkley, but the Chiefs are the Chiefs. Jamie, how are you feeling about the Super Bowl? We have two weeks to talk about it, but just to get it out.

[Jamie]

Of the way, I'm not going to bet against Mahomes and Reed at this point. I mean, it's, you know, they're chasing history at this point. They didn't have, they didn't have the toughest path in the, in the playoffs that, you know, I think the Bills did. They have, they had a little bit of a tougher, I think, championship game than, than the Eagles did in terms of just who they're. They're facing, who they faced. I don't know. I mean, these are two great teams. You know, it's going to come down to. These are both two teams that don't turn the ball over. And that was the difference two, three years ago is Jalen Hurts had a big mistake in the game and the Chiefs capitalized on it, you know, so it's going to probably be a one possession game and I think the Chiefs win those more times than they don't. So give Andy Reid time to prepare. He's typically really good in this spot.

[Heath]

I couldn't believe there were five fumbles in that Chiefs Bills game last night. The Bills recovered all five of them.

[Adam]

Is that. Oh, is that including the penalty or. No.

[Heath]

Well, that, that play didn't happen.

[Adam]

No. There were five fumbles.

[Heath]

Five fumbles. Wow. Bills fumbled four times and recovered all four of their own fumbles. And then of course, the two interceptions that were dropped by the Chiefs.

[Jamie]

Well, didn't, didn't the Chiefs have them homes have an early fumble before the second One the.

[Heath]

Yeah, but it was on. It was a. There was offsides on the play, so it didn't count. Yeah, and the Bills recovered that one too.

[Adam]

Someone in the chat saying the Chiefs are bad against the run. They haven't given up 100 yard rusher all year long. That's true. But they are struggling against the run right now. It's been like five weeks. It's. And this was their. They were the best run defense in football. They've lost that a little bit right now. So it'll be a fun game.

[Heath]

All right.

[Adam]

Anyway, actually, that's the other thing. I don't know that it'll be that fun of a game. I don't. I don't know that these teams are kind of boring. To me. It's not. Again, I hope. I don't want this to come off. I don't want to come off as a criticism.

[Heath]

They're too good.

[Adam]

They're a little boring. They're not quite as. As. All right. Okay. I have an idea for the NFL real quick. So you have some dynasty leagues that if a, if a manager wins two years in a row, they just reset the league. They just do a new draft. If the Chiefs do win three in a row, can we just reset all the rosters and let every. Just put the same player pool and just do some type of draft and.

[Heath]

And make a rule to where teams can't trade with the Chiefs. Don't let the Chiefs trade up to get guys. Just maybe, maybe don't give them as many picks.

[Adam]

All right, what do we got at FFT Dynasty this week?

[Heath]

Jamie is going to be on tomorrow. I hope he remembers. I just told him we're doing a, a mock draft, one QB startup mock draft. And then on Friday it's a one man mailbag and we'll be answering particularly if you have any 5 star reviews out there on SP. I will go check those out and answer your questions.

[Adam]

There you go. All right, let's get a fantasy winner. Fantasy loser from yesterday's games. Jamie, you got a winner.

[Jamie]

I mean, I think he thought he gave two of them, right. So Jalen hurts and James Cook would be winners. I'll go Xavier worthy. You know, just continues to, to look like a star in the waiting and it's really going to be fascinating when Rice comes back, if Kelsey comes back. I, I think you almost have to view Kelsey as the third option, which is kind of scary. But I'm feeling a lot of like early Tyree Kill vibes for what we've seen from him the last three weeks of the regular season. I know he didn't have the best playoff game against Houston, but still had six targets, which was second on the team, five catches in that game. And then you see what he's able to do in this game. And he's only going to get better. And so with that speed, with not necessarily having to be the focal point because Rice will be there, I wonder if we're going to end up over drafting Rice a little bit and not necessarily undervaluing Worthy because he's going to come off, you know, everybody watching him after this game and then whatever he does in the super bowl, but he may end up being the better pick because he's going to go later than Rice.

[Adam]

Yeah, let me see. I'm sorry, let me pull up our drafts. Xavier Worthy. Worthy with a big game yesterday of 6 for 85 and a touchdown on seven targets. And he also had two carries for 16 yards, which is nice to see. Do you think Xavier Worthy will be a top 60 pick?

[Jamie]

Oh, yes. Top 48 pick if he has another big game. I mean, look, first off, Rice suspended or, you know, struggling with the injury. It's a big, you know, two big caveats there to keep in mind. But assuming Rice ready to go training camp, top 48 will probably be close. I, I would say I, I would not take him in the first four rounds, but very close to that.

[Heath]

There's just, there's too many question marks like is Kelsey there? What games is Rashid Rice going to be healthy and not suspended for? But I could see like if Kelsey's gone and Rice is suspended at the beginning of the year, he's definitely going to be in the first four rounds.

[Adam]

Yeah, Worthy was round five pick in both of our January drafts. Half PPR and full PPR. He was 53rd in one draft. He was 60th in the other. Heath, who's a winner for you?

[Heath]

Well, I'm, I'm gonna say James Cook. We talked about him a little bit, but I, what I hope comes out of this game is that the, the nonsense with the three headed monster in this backfield goes away. And I know Ty Johnson made some good plays, but 13 carries for 85 yards for James Cook, eight carries for 23 yards for the other two running backs in this game. I hope there's a little bit because I didn't have James Cook in my top 12 running backs. I don't think when we did our, our rankings back in January and it, I, I love him as a player. I just Hate the way they've been distributing touches, especially down the stretch. So hopefully James Cook earned a few more touches, had three catches, 49 yards in the game as well.

[Adam]

I feel like he was a little banged up or something on their last drive. I feel like Ty Johnson got the carry on the first down. I was like, what the heck is going on here? Why? How could James Cook not be in the game? But.

[Heath]

But they've done it. They've done it all year.

[Adam]

Yeah. No, I. I was also frustrated with that. Right. I don't know if he played 70% of the snaps in any game this year. I'm not sure. So. All right, James Cook, bottom line, he's done so much with somewhat limited work for a top 12 running back. So James Cook, in our two most recent drafts, he went with the last pick of round two, 24th overall, and he went with the sixth pick of round two right in front of Jonathan Taylor. Who would you guys rather have, James Cook or Jonathan Taylor?

[Jamie]

They're very similar in terms of. They're. You're not gonna get a lot in the passing game, but I think James Cook has a little bit more to offer given his offense as opposed to Anthony Richardson running the Colts. So I'm gonna probably. I think I had Taylor over Cook. I might switch that, especially since, you know, he just showed he can lead the NFL or tied the NFL lead in rushing touchdowns. So they're very close, though.

[Heath]

Yeah, I've got Taylor right now.

[Adam]

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[Adam]

Welcome back. Okay, let's get to the fantasy losers here. Heath, you want to give me a fantasy loser from the conference championships?

[Heath]

Yeah, I will go with Isaiah Pacheco and I don't know enough about the mesh point. I don't think to know whether the fumble was his fault or not, but it's just another game of Kareem Hunt being the clearly the best running back in the Kansas City backfield and it's going to be I I still think most likely Pacheco will be fully recovered at the beginning of next year and he'll be their best running back, but it's going to be hard to have confidence in that going into the year. I don't think you can draft him as a top 15 running back and I'm not sure he's going to be drafted as a top 18 running back.

[Adam]

Five carries for 12 yards, two catches for 12 yards for Pacheco. Kareem Hunt had 17 carries for 64 yards and a touchdown and he had one catch for six yards. Jamie Loser for you.

[Jamie]

I mean, Dalton Kincaid just continues to look like a absolute bust of an NFL pick and certainly was a bust for fantasy. You know, let's tough catch at the end. You know, I don't think anybody's going to say easy play, but right your quarterback makes that type of throw under the pressure that he's in and the ball hits you in the hands like you got to make that play and you have to make that play. So. Just continues to share snaps with. With Dawson Knox. Clearly the Bills don't trust him. I don't know how healthy is with the knee. You know, since he came back, he's been basically playing fewer snaps than Dawson Knox. I'm sure part of that is, you know, based on scheme with how he doesn't, you know, run blocking knocks by comparison to Kincaid. But, you know, we got through talking about our top 12 tight ends last week and. And I know I had him in the top 12. It's going to be hard to justify that, you know, so hopefully year three is better than year two, but it was. It was a bad year and a bad playoffs.

[Adam]

Yeah, not a good day. I give another loser just Brian Robinson Jr. 11 carries for 36 yards. Did not have a target. Yeah, when you have only two games, tough to find winners and losers. I guess you could say Devonta Smith.

[Heath]

Yeah, I almost. I was gonna say, I think you can add Devonte Smith as a loser also like Dallas Goddard back and Devonte Smith's on the fringe again.

[Adam]

Yeah, four catches for 45 yards. One of those catches, I wish they had shown a replay of that, like another replay or if it had been challenged. But one of those catches may have been a bad call, but you finally get 28 pass attempts from Hertz, which is a lot for him. You finally get 246 yards from hertz. That's a lot for what we've been seeing lately. You only had 15 carries for Saquon Barkley. 118 yards and three touchdowns. And Devontae Smith really just does very little. All right, so those are the winners and losers from conference championship weekend. And congratulations to the Eagles and the Chiefs. And congratulations to Pete Carroll. Congratulations to Liam Cohen. Congratulations to Brian Schottenheimer. All of them are head coaches. Pete Carroll going to the Raiders, Cohen going to the Jaguars. Schottenheimer being promoted as the offensive coordinator to the head coach for the Dallas Cowboys. And what was the other one? Oh, Clint Kubiak. Congratulations to Clint Kubiak. You are now the offensive coordinator and play caller for the Seattle Seahawks. All right, Jamie, who what's the biggest fantasy impact? We also had Aaron Glenn getting hired for by the jets as their head coach, but no offensive coordinator there yet. And we had Declan Doyle is now the offensive coordinator for the Bears, but they have Ben Johnson, so we're not really, you know, he's going to call the plays. So that's. We're not going to spend too much time on that. But when you look at Pete Carroll, Liam Cohen, Brian Schadenheimer, Clint Kubiak going to Seattle, which player really stands out as a big winner here or loser?

[Jamie]

I would hope it's everybody in Jacksonville, you know, getting an offensive mind that, you know, did some great things in Tampa Bay and you know, can hopefully improve the run game. I mean, that was a huge boost for Tampa Bay this year. You know, I don't know how much of that was just Bucky Irving, but you know, we, we were talking about just how bad a running back Rashad White was and you know, was it scheme, was it him was offensive line injuries, you know, the first two years of his career, Year three, everything in Tampa Bay looks better running the ball. Obviously Baker Mayfield's coming off a big season, so, you know, can Liam Cohen fix the problems in Jacksonville? Can he make Trevor Lawrence into a, a viable to it to an above average NFL quarterback and a viable fantasy quarterback? And that's the biggest thing, you know, so not much is going to change in Dallas outside of maybe a running back change. Obviously there's a lot of questions in Las Vegas. I think Kubiak, you know, we didn't really get to see anything with this, the New Orleans offense because of all the injuries there. You know, I mean, Derek Carr obviously missed a lot of time. Chris Olave missed the majority of the season. You know, from, excuse me, from a passing game perspective. Clearly Alvin Kamara had a great year, but did he do anything different because of Kubiak? I don't, I don't think that necessarily is, is because of what was going on there. So the, the hopeful change will be in Jacksonville with Congo Heath.

[Adam]

What are your thoughts on all this?

[Heath]

Yeah, I think Cohen is the one that, that we like feel the best about. I'm pretty interested to see what Pete Carroll does in Las Vegas, especially if it involves bringing Russell Wilson to Las Vegas and then who's the Steelers quarterback. Does that mean Justin Fields gets another like I think that whole dynamic will be pretty interesting because I can't imagine that Carol's gon into the year with the same thing they had at quarterback last year.

[Jamie]

Well, I mean if you are trying to just, you know, have some karma. The last quarterback to win an arrowhead. Jose. No, Connell.

[Adam]

Yeah, about that. So it's, you know, talk about tendencies for these coaches and these coordinators here. Pete Carroll has a reputation of being very run heavy. In his last three seasons with Seattle though he got away from that a little bit. Their pass rate in their last in his last three seasons, 2021-23, was 20th, 11th and fifth and they ranked sixth, ninth and 18th in points per game. And that was only one Russell Wilson season. He got hurt in that season. So, you know, like Geno Smith in 2022 had that really good year and then he wasn't so great in 2023, but he wasn't bad. So he got away from that, that run style. But there, I think there have been times where Pete Carroll kind of said we got to run the ball more. So I'm just curious, Heath, when you look at Pete Carroll, you look at Brian Schottenheimer, he's got a pretty run heavy background. Do you. And you look at Seattle, obviously they, it seems like they fired Ryan Grub, their offensive coordinator, in part or mostly maybe because they wanted to run the ball more. They, they had the fifth highest pass rate in football last year. The Seahawks. You look at Pete Carroll, the Seahawks situation, and Dallas, are you thinking that these are going to be coaches that want to be more run heavy?

[Heath]

I could see all. I mean, I think yes, definitely Seattle is going to be more run heavy. I, maybe a small change in Dallas, but I don't think it'll be a big one. The Raiders win. Like let's see who he hires as the offensive coordinator.

[Jamie]

Yeah, I, I think that's big. And you know, Schottenheimer was with Carol for a little bit of time also. You know, I, in terms of like saying Pete Carroll's run heavy, it's the guys that he's hired have been run heavy. You know, he's not calling offensive plays.

[Adam]

No, but it's his philosophy. I think it had been, I mean, for sure.

[Jamie]

Yeah. And I think that's. But I think the, the bigger picture is what you're seeing in the NFL. The NFL has become a more run heavy league, you know, from just maybe perception. But you know, in terms of how these teams are operating and how they've gotten to the points that they've gotten to. I mean, you said it when you were talking about the super bowl that these teams are not the most exciting because of, I think how they're trying to win. You know, they're not trying to go out there and throw the ball 45 plus times. Mahomes has changed, you know, and the NFL has changed in terms of how they're, they're operating. Saquon Barkley has changed the Eagles. So do they want to be more run heavy? Sure. You know, so does that like, does, does Kubiak going there? Does it Benefit one of the two guys in particular. I don't think anything changes for Ken Walker and Zach Charbonnet. I think we're still going to get a split. We're still going to get probably one guy playing more on passing downs like Charbonnet did, one guy playing more on rushing downs. Unless he just falls in love with Charbonne, gives him the opportunity to do both or a little bit more. A little bit more from a carry perspective. So I don't, I don't know what we'll see from Seattle, from Las Vegas. Interesting. With the Russell Wilson tie in. So was it him, was it Carol who wanted to move on from Russell Wilson, or was it John Schneider, the gm, you know, and that will be somewhat telling if, if they make a run at Russell Wilson.

[Heath]

I, I did see someone, I don't remember who it was that said that they have, there was some sort of rift between the two of them, but they have mended fences.

[Adam]

So. By the way, there's a little overlap here in the coaching news.

[Heath]

This.

[Adam]

Brian Schottenheimer was the offensive coordinator for Pete Carroll for three seasons, and Seattle was really good offensively. They were ninth in scoring, eighth in scoring and sixth in scoring in those three seasons. They were 32nd in pass rate, 27th in pass rate and then 14th in pass rate. So. Yeah, so. So Schottheimer is an interesting hire, right? Like, it seemed clear, it seemed like in the days before he was hired or, you know, promoted that he had become the favorite. But I think a lot of people thought maybe they'd be a splashier higher and quite frankly, his resume as a play caller, it's not great. He was, according to ESPN, play caller for 12 seasons out of 15 as an OC, maybe 14 as an OC, 12 play caller for 12 seasons and only three, four times that his teams rank top 10 in points per game. Is this, is this bad for the Cowboys offense?

[Heath]

Is he gonna call place?

[Adam]

That's a good question. He didn't call plays last year. I, I would think so, but it's a good question. I don't know.

[Jamie]

It's. It's so hard because the personnel is going to be most likely the same, you know, so what are they doing at their second receiver spot? What are they doing in their backfield? You know, the number one receiver and tight end are locked in. Quarterback is locked in. They need to still work on the offensive line. A lot of questions. So it, it's a very uninspiring hire.

[Adam]

Right.

[Jamie]

Like you said, you know, I think Everybody looks at Dallas and expects them to go get a big name or a guy that has a resume and he doesn't have you. Well, he has a name, clearly. His dad was one of the greatest coaches ever. Does or, I don't know, one of the greatest coaches.

[Adam]

A great coach and seventh winning his coach, I think of all time. Something.

[Jamie]

Yeah, he's a great coach. You know, I don't want to sell Marty Schottenheimer short. Does. Does he. Does he make you feel better? If you're a Cowboys fan, and I'm sure the answer is most likely no. So what do they do in the draft? You know, I think if they like this feels like a team that's going to do something a little crazy in the draft like drafting a running back in the first round, you know, and so, you know, Genti to the Cowboys seems like a, a potential meeting spot, a landing spot. And does that help things dramatically? You know, is he the answer to solve their offensive woes? You know, getting Dak back is huge, but they couldn't run the ball majority of the season.

[Adam]

Well, I, I think there's a perception that their offense got a little stale. Right. And so hiring from within, I don't know. It's going to fire up fantasy managers.

[Jamie]

But did their offense get stale or did everybody just get hurt?

[Heath]

Right.

[Adam]

I think they were struggling before the, the DAC injury.

[Jamie]

Well, it was, you know, they lose. Tyron Smith offensive line wasn't the same. Running game certainly wasn't the same.

[Adam]

Is it getting better though? I mean.

[Jamie]

Yeah, no, no. I'm not disagreeing with you, but I, you know, to go from where they were in 2023 to then quarterback missing the majority of the season, no run game till the end of the season. CD Lamb, with the contract situation earlier in the year, like, there was a lot of disjointed scenarios for, you know, Jake Ferguson missed a big chunk of the season. Like there was a lot of just guys missing that were big reasons why they were so good the year before. I don't think it's on McCarthy.

[Adam]

I don't know. It might be. I mean, when you hear Dan like breaking down the film talking about the Cowboys offense and the lack of creativity, I thought that was kind of an interesting angle there.

[Jamie]

But then how did they go from having an MVP candidate and quarterback the year before.

[Adam]

Yeah.

[Jamie]

To him missing and then all of a sudden they can't do anything. I, I don't disagree. Like we've said this for years about McCarthy in Green Bay. Like there was a lack of, you know, a lot of it was Rogers as we're finding out. You know, he likes his guys to run certain routes. He doesn't like to have pre snap motion. He wants to see what the defense is doing and you know, let the play clock run down to 1. So a lot of that was, was probably the quarterback's influence. But I don't know if, if, if any. If, if all you heard was they wanted, they thought McCarthy was coming back.

[Adam]

And, and this was, it seems. You know, I saw a couple of reports a guy that Dak Prescott wanted to be the head coach. He was in Schottenheimer's corner. So there is that and there's a good rapport there. I don't know that that's necessarily the best reason. If that was the reason. I don't know that's the best reason to make the hire. You know, you gotta sometimes shake things up. It's. I hope it works out. But you know, for Dak Prescott, he's not in anyone's top 12, right Jamie?

[Jamie]

No.

[Adam]

And that's kind of interesting because he's obviously had a horrible, you know, he had a bad season, but he's been a very consistent quarterback as a fantasy starter. And if I want to say four of his last six seasons he's averaged 24 or more points per game and six point per passing touchdown leagues. That's like a wow number. So how are we feeling about Dak.

[Heath]

Prescott heath high end QB2 with top 8 upside? I don't think like to your point, I don't think anybody is moving Deck Prescott into their top 12 because they decided to hire Brian Schottenheimer. But I, I mean I, I think we're just gonna have to see if he and CD Lamb can stay healthy and what kind of help, what kind of help they get on this offense.

[Jamie]

He will be a great option to pair with like an Anthony Richardson or Trying to think some of the guys that were ranked like 10 through 12 in the consensus. Brock Purdy.

[Adam]

Yeah, right. Kyler Bo Nicks, Caleb Williams.

[Jamie]

Yep. You know, so any of these guys that have some question marks, he's. It'd be very surprising if he's less than let's say an 18, 19 point per game type of guy. He typically is going to be a 21, 22 type point per game type of guy.

[Adam]

Okay, so my last question about all the coaching news is is anybody concerned about the Bucks taking a big step back? They lost their offensive coordinator two years in a row. It certainly did not matter last year. But anybody concerned about that?

[Heath]

I think it adds a level of uncertainty that wouldn't have been there if the change hadn't happened. But I'm not concerned enough to where I'm going to significantly downgrade any parts of their offense.

[Jamie]

Yep.

[Adam]

All right, cool. You know, I. Let's go. I forgot to do one question for each eliminated team, so let's do that. I got a question for the Commanders and a question for the Buffalo Bills. And my question for the Commanders is really just not a specific, oh, is he a top 12? Whatever. But how do you feel about Terry McLaurin? 117 targets in 17 games, 82 catches, just under 1100 yards. None of that is too great. 13 touchdowns for a guy who had four to five touchdowns in four straight seasons. He had 13 this year, and then he had three more in the playoffs. He was. He went nuts in the playoffs. So I'll give you the first word. Jamie, how do you feel about Terry McLaurin going into 2025? And before I finish my rambling here, he went with the ninth pick of round three and the seventh pick of round three in our most recent drafts.

[Jamie]

I think that's a good spot for him. You know, he'll be in that high end, wide receiver to range, might be drafted as a top 12 guy. They're going to add somebody, whether it's another receiver. Maybe it's a change at tight end if they don't feel like Ben Senate is the next guy up or they bring back Zach Ertz, which, who knows, he was so good for them this season and certainly was a monster in the playoffs. But I, I would expect him to make a run at a receiver or draft another receiver. You know, this is a landing spot now for teams. You have a. A culture change with the owner that everybody, I think, wants to be a part of. You have a quarterback that's going to be in this position more times than not, you know, based on what he did as a rookie. So I would imagine you're going to hear T. Higgins to Washington as a rumor, Chris Godwin to Washington as a rumor. You know, whatever the next free agent is, you know, it could be the, the Marquis Browns of the world, but there's going to be somebody else added. But I think when you look at McLaurin, this is what we've said about these guys. Stefan Diggs, when he got a, you know, team change, okay, now you get to see what he can do as a fantasy receiver. D.J. moore, good receiver, never put up fantasy production Gets in a situation where you could put up good fancy production. That happened to Terry McLaurin. He got a quarterback that can feature him to the level that we like. No, but pretty close. And you know, the, the numbers sort of bear that out a little bit that he's not necessarily the, the guy, the type of guy you want to build your receiving core around, but he's also a pretty good option if you go running back, tight end receiver, maybe is your, you know, second receiver to me is ideal. Yeah, I, I gladly take him round three.

[Heath]

I, I do think like the touchdowns point you make. Adam, you look at Terry McLaurin's 17 game pace for his career. 81 catches, 1118 yards on 127 targets. This season he had 82 catches, 1096 yards on 117 targets. Like the entire difference between Terry McLaurin's career and the 2024 season was the.

[Adam]

Touchdowns and it was the end zone targets. Specifically, he had the seventh most end zone targets in the NFL and he had the most touchdown catches on his end zone targets of anyone in football.

[Heath]

So like going into the season when I'm doing my projections, I won't normally project a wide receiver for higher than a 6% touchdown rate. Maybe if it's somebody like Mike Evans who scores 10 touch touchdowns every year, you go up to a 7% touchdown rate and that's just the touchdowns divided by targets. Coming into this year, Terry McLaren was right around, I think three and a half percent touchdown rate for his career. And this season he scored on 11% of his targets. So I think there's probably significant touchdown regression coming. You just hope that maybe there's an end. A lot of times we see second year quarterbacks throw the ball a little bit more than they did as rookies. Maybe, maybe the target volume goes up a little bit. But yeah, I think number two wide receiver is the best way to view them.

[Adam]

And yeah, one of the things my, one of my theories about McLaurin was that he had had such bad deep ball accuracy in his career, that Daniels was such a good deep ball thrower that McLaren would benefit from that. Well, they were bad again in deep deep ball accuracy. If you look at 20 or more air yards, passes, 20 more errors, but he did have 405 yards on pass attempts of 20 or more air yards, which was by far the most, not by far, but the most of his career. So the accuracy wasn't necessarily better, but the production was better. And, and it wasn't because of more pass attempts. Just I Think probably hit him deeper downfield. There was more yak, but I think. Yeah, sorry.

[Heath]

His highest A dot since his rookie year, 13.4. It was 11.5 the year before that. So like that. That probably lend itself to more big plays too.

[Jamie]

You know, it's also, we talked about this a lot with Kyler Murray, how he usually focuses on one guy in Cliff Kingsbury's offense, but it wasn't.

[Adam]

That's the thing. Like, he only had 117 targets. And okay, this is. Right. So I don't think that you should.

[Jamie]

Focus on one guy. Is the. Is the right way to phrase it. Maybe one guy stands out.

[Adam]

Yeah, well, for sure. Right. But so McLaurin, if you just look at the numbers, it's a pretty normal year. I mean, he's just laid it out. But even if you want to get into the. The deeper metrics, the target share, the target per out run rate, the yak, the yards per catch, the yards per. It was nothing outlandish. It was really just the touchdowns.

[Heath]

To Jamie's point about focusing on one guy, though, yes, he only had 117 targets. No other wide receiver had more than 64.

[Adam]

No, but Earth. So what?

[Heath]

Earth had 91.

[Adam]

Yeah, they didn't throw a lot. I think they averaged about 28 and a half pass attempts per game. Something like that. But great year for McLaurin and obviously a great rapport with Jaden Daniels. And then if you throw his postseason numbers in there, it's even better. But might surprise people with this. Great year for McLaurin. He was only only 16th per game in non PPR. 12th per game in full PPR. All right, let's take a break. I'm going to ask you a Bill's question when we come back after this on FFT at Pluto tv, we're celebrating.

[Heath]

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[Adam]

All right, so let's finish off with this question about the Bills. It's going to sound crazy. I think the answer is probably no. But is there a case to be made to draft Keon Coleman ahead of Khalil Shakir in 2025?

[Jamie]

Upside?

[Heath]

Yeah. I mean, I think it's not. Maybe you can Azer Stack Khalil Shakir's numbers or I'm forgetting something. Like, I know he had some good stretches, but he was wide receiver for 37 per game on the season. I think you can make a case to draft a lot of players over that guy.

[Adam]

Right? That's what I'm saying. It's like Shakira had such a good year. Was this the best we're gonna see of Khalil Shakir? What 37th per game?

[Jamie]

The only thing would be is if something happens to him, like what happened to McLaurin, where the. It was, I think like 12 games in a row where he had at least six targets or more, if I'm not mistaken, going in the playoffs, might have been nine. I don't know. It's in that range right around 10 and like 70 of those were 60 plus yards. He only scored two touchdowns during that stretch, you know, so that's the problem for him is that he's just not going to be a significant touchdown score, you know, maybe six. You know, he has one of those type of seasons that bumps him from wide receiver would say 36, 37, you know, to wide receiver, 26, 28, you know, in that range, I think it just, the, the floor is pretty safe for him. The ceiling is just not that high. Whereas Keon Coleman, you know, if things click for him, he can be the alpha for Josh Allen. But I think that's what's missing in this offense. I don't know if Keon Coleman's that guy. And so, you know, they tried with Amari Cooper, who just looks completely washed up. Dalton Kincaid clearly did not take the step forward that a lot of us were hoping for. And so that's the biggest hole in this offense right now because that's what Josh Allen's missing is, is a consistent go to guy that can, you know, help him, not necessarily have to be Superman on every play. Will they go out and get that guy? Can they find that guy? You know, is it a trade? Is it a, you know, do they get in the T. Higgins mix, for example? I don't know. So but if they don't and they don't bring back anybody significant, you know, and it's the same group and you're relying on Matt Collins to make those plays. You know, like Keon Coleman should definitely be the best receiver on the team. Will he? That's the question.

[Adam]

Yeah. Did he show enough? Did he do enough? He didn't really have that great of a season, but he was good. Such a stupid metric sometimes, but 89 wide receivers with 50 or more targets. He was 16th. An explosive play rate. That's Keon Coleman. But guess who was ahead of him. One spot ahead of Kevante Turpin. Oh, right behind him, Calvin Austin. So when you just don't get that many targets, you can show up on these lists really high. So yeah, it was, it was a.

[Jamie]

Little interesting because you go back to the Dolphins game where he had the wrist injury. He was starting to play better then.

[Adam]

Yeah, he was.

[Jamie]

Yeah, he really was starting to look like, okay, this could be a guy that Josh Allen will lean on. And then he never did anything coming back from the wrist injury.

[Adam]

Yeah. All right, well, that's all I got for today. I could read some emails. Should we read some emails?

[Jamie]

Sure.

[Adam]

All right, we got time. Here's one from Case. It's a dynasty grade. The trade I gave away 1.1, Ricky Piersol and Taje Spears for 1.3 Isaiah Pacheco and Brandon Ayuk. So it gives up 1 point. I don't know. 1.1 moves down to 1.3, gives up Piersol and Spears gets Pacheco and Ayuk.

[Heath]

Is it super flex? I wonder.

[Adam]

Yeah, I'm not sure. So give me, give me a grade for both scenarios.

[Heath]

C minus if it's 1 QB, C plus if it's super flex.

[Jamie]

I don't like to move down for a player coming off an ACL tear and a broken leg. Yeah, another player calling a broken leg. Like you're not getting like slam dunk value here for basically two first round picks because Piercel was either a borderline first round pick or a first round pick last year in a 1 QB league. And so it feels like you're giving up too much. Young talent, young potential because you, you want to control the draft. You had, you had that control. Now you're at somebody two other people's mercy.

[Heath]

Like if, if everything goes right for Ashton Genti and he like gets a good situation with a first round draft capital, he's probably going to be a top 10 player for me in a 1 QB dynasty league like a first round pick in a startup.

[Jamie]

I wonder if the kid from Ohio State's better.

[Adam]

Oh yeah, and Then yeah, there's gonna be really interesting. Somebody actually wrote an email about Travis Hunter. What we're going to do about him. I guess he's just going to be wide receiver eligible, but he may not even play. We don't know what position he's going to play.

[Heath]

So I'm, I'm going to push really hard in our YOLO Dynasty league, which is idp, that he gets fantasy points for everything that he does. I think, I think he, like, if you're, if you're playing both sides, if he's legitimately going to play both sides of the football, that is one of the most valuable players in football and he should be one of the most valuable players in fantasy.

[Adam]

Is he not just Shohei Otani? Because we didn't do that with Shohei Ohtani. Well, I, I remember that because I was hosting the podcast during the Otani days and I remember it too, and.

[Heath]

I think I was making the argument that he should be the most valuable player in fantasy.

[Adam]

Yeah, well, I think it's like unfair, but I.

[Heath]

Too good.

[Adam]

Too good. There's only one guy doing that. It just seems like it's just not fair. It's not like everyone. I guess if you did an auction, it'd be one thing, but there's one guy doing it. Yeah, I see your point. I wouldn't do that. What we did with Otani was you had to start him every week in a weekly league. You had to make him either a pitcher or a hitter and you would not get his points for both.

[Heath]

Defensive backs often average, especially corners might average four or five fantasy points a game. Like if he's not a full time corner, he might have two tackles a lot of games.

[Adam]

He might. Yeah, he's so good. Oh, this is. That's why I want the Giants to draft, by the way. By the way. Stop that. That is that he's the best player by far.

[Heath]

And who's your quarterback next year?

[Adam]

I don't care. Like get, get the best player. Get the best player.

[Heath]

Okay.

[Adam]

All right. Question from Nick. He just wants to know in general what you guys think about the Aaron Glenn hire for the Jets.

[Jamie]

I think the biggest thing is, you know, they need a culture change. You know, someone's going to go in there and, and be the dominant voice and not let the owner interfere. You know, hopefully he has that kind of cachet right away. You know, former player there clearly was, you know, on what just was a unfortunate situation because that defense was so good before they started losing guys. And I don't think you can look at him and say, okay, what happened in the playoffs is, is totally his fault as the coach that gave up what they gave 55, 50 plus points to Washington in the division run.

[Adam]

So yeah, I don't remember a lot.

[Jamie]

If they get the quarterback situation right, it's going to be a great hire. If they don't, it's going to be an awful hire.

[Adam]

They gave 45 points.

[Jamie]

45.

[Adam]

Yeah. Okay, let's see. I feel like I have another we'll have some fantasy cops questions. How about this one from Joe? I am a rebuilding team. For the first time in a 12 team PPR Super Flex tight end premium league, I was offered pick 203 for Sutton and Dobbins. I have 102, 107, 110, 202 and 204. So that would give him three picks in the first four of the second round plus three first round picks. But he'd be giving up Sutton and dobbins for pick 203. What do you think?

[Heath]

I would like another second.

[Jamie]

Yeah, I think you should, think you.

[Heath]

Should get a 20, 26 second included. And I, I will say like super flex and tight end premium means 203 is pro. You should probably think of that almost like a first round pick in a, in a one quarterback league. That's not tight end premium because there's probably three tight ends that go in the first round based on my very, very early research. But still I'd like one more. Give me, give me a 20, 26 second. We're really close.

[Jamie]

The only thing that I that I'll say is that you may get a situation where Dobbins leaves the Chargers and goes to a worse situation. So if you want to try and make this trade happen, do it now.

[Adam]

That is it. Now we are done for today's show. Gonna definitely do some fantasy cops if I get a chance. If they're good and if they're worthy of the show, we'll throw some fantasy cops in later this week. Keep sending your questions fantasy footballbsi.com or leave us a five star review on Apple podcast with your question and comment. Tell people why you love the show and yeah, thanks a lot for watching and listening everybody. Go Cheegles. That's where I'm at right now. Just trying to figure it out. Just try to figure it out for the next.

[Heath]

You started the podcast hating the chief.

[Adam]

The. The hate. I still hate the Eagles. Doesn't mean I don't hate the Eagles. Yeah. Make no mistake. All right.

[Jamie]

Why do you have to root for any of this. Just watch the game.

[Adam]

That's so boring. I want to have something.

[Heath]

I mean, you want to see Saquon get a ring? Come on, just be. Just be happy for Saquon. Root for sake one.

[Adam]

I am happy for him.

[Heath]

Or you'd be happy for Spags. Bags gave you a lot of joy.

[Jamie]

You were happy. You were happy when Kadarius Tony got a ring.

[Adam]

Can I give you. Can I just read you the first three little paragraphs from. From the AP recap of Washington. Philadelphia. Saquon Barkley consulted with his family before the star running back decided yes, it was time to leave his only professional home with the Giants and sign with the Eagles. His young. His youngest daughter, Jada, had one question for dad as he told her the family was headed to Philadelphia. Does this mean dad will win? Now? That's.

[Heath]

That's really, really. I'm just. I'm really happy for him.

[Adam]

Who.

[Heath]

Who brought you more joy, Saquan or Specs Spagnola? Come on, cheer for the Chiefs.

[Adam]

Let's go, Chiefs. Thank you, Heath.

[Heath]

All right, we're out of here.

[Adam]

We'll talk to you on Wednesday on Fantasy Football. Today.

[Jamie]

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[Jamie]

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