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WRs Rounds 6-8! Jerry Jeudy, Courtland Sutton, 49ers WRs and More (07/09 Fantasy Football Podcast)
01:08:17
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- [00:00]
Adam
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- [01:34]
Dave
Wanna play? Can you believe this?
- [01:37]
Adam
No, I can't.
- [01:38]
Jamie
It's time to dominate your fantasy league.
- [01:41]
Adam
Off to the races and he stays on his feet.
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Dave
This is gonna go the distance.
- [01:45]
Adam
Now here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie and Heath. Hey, what's up everybody? Tuesday, July eight more wide receivers to talk about. It is, after all, Wide Receiver Week. Welcome to Fantasy Football Today, everybody. We're looking at rounds six through eight in the current CBS PPR average draft position, and there are 16 wide receivers in this range. We've got Jerry Judy to kick it off. He was the number three wide receiver per game from weeks eight through 15. That was mostly Jameis Winston. We got a guy like Chris Godwin. He's the first pick of round seven. He was the number three wide receiver per game. Just in general in ppr, we got Devonte Smith in there. He's great. Without Dallas Goddard, we've got A rookie Tet, McMillan, Cortland, Sutton, was the number 10 wide receiver per game in his last 10 games. We have a couple of guys who later in the year their adots went down, their targets and their production went up. They are football players, they are sons. They are Jameson Williams and Jordan Addison. A couple of guys who are kind of similar.
- [02:56]
Jamie
I was right.
- [02:56]
Adam
Yeah, that you were right. Good job. All right. Anyway, looking at rounds six, seven, eight, I'm just going to tell everybody the 16 wide receivers real quick. Round six is Judy Devonte, Smith, McMillan Sutton, Jameson Williams, George Pickens, Zay Flowers. Round round seven is Godwin Addison, Olave Waddle, Odunze Piersol, Shakir. Round eight, only two guys, Jacoby Myers and Matthew Golden. I guess technically we could throw Juwan Jennings and Calvin Ridley in there because they are just outside of the. They are criminally undervalued. Close to pick 100. Juwan Jennings and Calvin Ridley. They are technically round nine picks right now in 12 team leagues, but they're close enough to round eight. Anyway, which wide receiver in this range has the best value?
- [03:47]
Dave
Jamie, if we're not including Jennings and Ridley, for me it would be Sutton. You know, I, I think I mentioned this yesterday. Like I don't see a huge difference in the profile for him versus Evans versus Metcalf versus McLaurin. Like just they're all going to be somewhat touchdown dependent. They're all going to hover around, you know, 11, 1200 yards and I think they're going to be in the 80 plus catch range. And so, you know, Sutton has proven himself now in two years with Sean Payton. He was great last year with Bo Nix, like you said, number 10 wide receiver. So as long as there's no holdout for him, which I think is still something to consider, then he should be in, in a much higher, he should be drafted sooner. And, and he's in a tier, you know, above for where these guys are.
- [04:36]
Adam
For me, for first seven games of the season, Cortland Sutton was really bad. He was on pace for 673 yards. And guess what? Bo Nix was really bad. Bo Nix was on pace for 3,000 passing yards and 12 touchdowns Last 10 games of the season. I already told you, Cortland Sutton was the number 10 wide receiver per game. I think Bo Nix is not going to do as well as he did there. He was on pace for 4,300 yards and 41 touchdowns. So it won't be that good. But better Bo Nix equaled better Cortland Sutton. Dave, who's the best value in this range?
- [05:07]
Jamie
I agree that it's Sutton just because I think he can outperform where people have been drafting him.
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Adam
Okay, who's the worst value in this range?
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Jamie
Dave, what's Shakir's ADP?
- [05:20]
Adam
Shakir is like the end of round seven. He is 84th.
- [05:27]
Jamie
I. I think you're. You're kind of getting what you pay for with him. I don't see him being that much better than he was last year. Last year he was a low end number three receiver. That's how he finished. Keenan Allen had more PPR points per game than he did. It was by a tenth of a PPR point. He averaged around 12 per game, had a couple of big games. Everything else was kind of mediocre. I feel like you're drafting a middling number three wide receiver with Shakir.
- [05:54]
Adam
Jamie, worst value.
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Dave
I don't remember all the names. I'm sorry.
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Adam
Oh, that's okay. So it's, you know, I'm not gonna read them all, but. All right, ready? Here we go. Judy Smith, McMillan Sutton, Jameson Pickens, Flowers. Godwin, Addison, Olave, Waddle, Odunze Piersol, Shakir Myers, Golden.
- [06:12]
Dave
I have Odunze probably ranked a little too low, but he's the one that stands out to me too. Like, he. He's got the opportunity to be fantastic, but he also struggled last year a lot. And there's now two more mouths to feed in this offense, even though you're taking away key down. So let's say one more mouth to feed in this offense. So as we said yesterday with DJ Moore, Odunse could be the best receiver for the Bears. He also could be the fourth best pass catcher for the Bears. So that's the one that kind of jumped out to me there.
- [06:39]
Adam
I think it's a pretty good range. You know, it doesn't seem like there's anything really glaring there. Shakira is kind of boring, I guess, compared to most of the other players. So I get where you.
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Jamie
How many receivers in this range can you make the case for as top 12 wide receiver?
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Dave
Godwin, barring injury?
- [07:01]
Jamie
Yeah, I mean, you can make injury into it if you want, but I don't think there's that many. I'd say three cases for top 12.
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Dave
Three. Three guys.
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Jamie
Yeah. Who do you have as your three?
- [07:12]
Dave
Judy, Sutton and Godwin.
- [07:15]
Jamie
Man, I don't even know. I. I guess I see it with Judy. Definitely see it with Sutton. If Godwin's right, you could see it with him.
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Dave
Yeah.
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Jamie
I think everyone else, you'll need an injury to a teammate. To like really see them like completely break out. Like Devonte Smith is the perfect example. Like yeah, when everybody's healthy in Philadelphia, Smith is so boomer bust. But when one guy's gone, got her. Mrs. Time.
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Dave
A.J.
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Jamie
Brown misses Time. He's awesome. He's the number one receiver.
- [07:46]
Adam
Yep. He has averaged about 17 and a half PPR fantasy points in 16 games over the last three seasons with A.J. brown. But without Dallas Goddard, that is top 10 wide receiver. That's Devonte Smith. Whenever Goddard's not there, when A.J. brown's not there, he's equally awesome. He might even be better than that. I throw one more name in there as a guy that I think I could see finishing top 12 without an injury. And that would be Jalen Waddle. You know, it just, it would just have to be. He's making a bunch of big plays. We didn't quite see him finish top 12 per game with Tua and Tyree kill, but a couple of years ago it wasn't that far from it. So I think, I don't. He's still a young, really good player, right? I don't think that it's was 20, 22. He was 10th per game and non PPR 14th per game in full PPR with 1356 yards, eight touchdowns in 17 games.
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Dave
I mean you think about a lot of the names on this list that you're, you're referencing here. It's you know, number two receivers on what should be very good passing attacks. Right. You know, so Waddle Smith, Devonte Smith, Addison, Jameson Williams. Like there's a lot of guys here. Like again, if there's an injury, my gosh, you know, you could see huge potential for almost all of those guys. But that's why they're being drafted as ranges. Like they're still very good even in their current situation, you know, so while Smith's numbers pop when there's no Brown or Goddard, he still prior to last year at least was, was a very productive fantasy option. I mean, Jordan Addison basically rolls out of bed and gets you, you know, almost double digit touchdowns in the first two years of his career. Jameson Williams finally, you know, exploded in year three and hoping for more in year four. You know, so all these guys have such, you know, interesting profiles that there's also, you know, not, maybe not all of them, but if there is an injury that does occur, you could see top 10 potential for, you know, those respective players because of the offense that they play. And it's almost like, you know, you're getting the t Higgins discount with these guys, you know, they're not as good as Higgins, but they're, they're just, you know, on that, that, that type of level of, you know, high end, second player in, in a very productive passing attack.
- [09:54]
Jamie
And if you change the question from could these guys finish top 12 to could these guys finish top 20? Dude, almost every single name that you just said, Jamie, you could make the case for finishing top 20. That, that's the idea. We're drafting these guys as high end number three wide receivers, but they could easily finish top 20 at the position. That's what you're hoping for. And if you can get a guy that can do that, you're, you're making out like a bandit.
- [10:20]
Dave
Well, I think we've kind of said this a ton this off season, if not, you know, past years as well. Like this is the, we're in the blob, you know, wide receiver 20 through 40, you know.
- [10:30]
Adam
Yeah, yeah.
- [10:31]
Dave
I think all these guys could be top 20 receivers. You know, it's not just the names I think that we talked about. Like you could see a situation where, you know, I mean, you know, Ridley and Jennings for sure, you know, past this group, but all of these players, you know, and some of them I think for depending on which rank list you look at. You know, I know Sutton for me is, is basically a top 20 receiver and Judy I think for Heath is a top 20 receiver, you know, so we have some of these guys there. He's made the case yesterday that he would rank Godwin ahead of Evans if everything's, you know, fine with his health. So there's a lot of upside already with these guys. Depending again on who you ask.
- [11:06]
Adam
Well, I think it brings up a question, right? If you're choosing between two wide receivers in this range, what's more important to you? Target or target volume or quality of offense? And we did a show a few months ago where we looked at which players have really jumped out over the last few years as the best mid round picks and got a lot of guys on, on San Francisco and Detroit that have outperformed their adp. So I tend to target the better offenses here. Even if I'm very, I mean, I'm very concerned about Jameson Williams target volume. You know, if they aren't throwing the ball a lot, if they don't have his miserable defense at the end of the year, he could be 100 target guy and he's going to have to rely on a lot of big plays. But you know, I also kind of just Trust that he's going to find a way to score fantasy points. Exactly like what you're saying with Amon Ross St. Brown the first round. Except this is much later in the draft. You know, I do think that you should look at San Francisco wide receivers in this range. It just makes sense. We've seen Brandon Iuk come out of this range before. I think twice. Chris Godwin came out of this range. Mike Evans has come out of this range and been a standout. Evans two years ago, Chris Godwin last year. So we didn't know that the Bucs offense is going to be as good as it was last season. But I don't know. How do you guys feel about that? Volume versus quality of offense?
- [12:31]
Jamie
I think there's enough receivers here where you could say yes to both of those things. And then once you, you exhaust that list of receivers that are in good offenses and can get north of seven targets per game, I the knee jerk reaction is to lean toward the targets because it's hard to get fantasy points without them. And if, if you're in a good offense but you're only getting what did say Flowers average last year, 6.8 targets per game, it should be somebody even lower than that. Jameson James Average 6.1 targets per game last year, you don't feel quite as good about that. So I'd probably lean toward targets before offense.
- [13:11]
Dave
For me it's probably the way I started my draft and what I'm looking for for a player in this range, you know, so if, if I'm probably running back heavy or you know, quarterback, tight end, not necessarily a robust receiving core at this point, I'm probably going to look for someone that's going to be a little safer. In the case of the way I typically draft, you know, this is probably like my fourth receiver, right? Worst case scenario, my third receiver. And so you know, I'll probably be a little bit more, you know, take risk averse, you know, and, and take a chance on the most upside, you know, so that like a Jameson Williams for example, you know, so you know, if he hits to the level that we started to see last year and maybe does have the, the breakout potential like his coaching staff has been talking about, then you know, you, you have a league winner, you know, versus let's say somebody like Isaiah Flowers who's going to give you some, some a little bit more steady production but not necessarily the high end production because the offense he plays. So it's probably going to come down to you know, the, the way that the Board is playing and, and I think it's, you know, this is probably for another show, but like when you start to sort of like group rounds together and you know, looking at ADP and how it's all breaking apart the running backs that are typically going right before this group, it's, you know, okay, is this your second running back or, or does this where your flex position come into play? You know, again, if you sort of push quarterback and tight end, you know, a little further down. And so again, for me, like, I'm looking at it probably like this is my fourth receiver in this range with a, with a hero RB approach. And so which running backs versus these high end potential receivers make more sense? So in that case, again, I'm probably looking for more upside. So I don't necessarily worry about the target potential versus, to your, you know, phrase, Adam, who's going to get the most fantasy points?
- [15:01]
Adam
Well, I think like the really tough one would be something like Jameson Williams versus Tet McMillan.
- [15:07]
Dave
Right?
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Adam
Where, where do you guys side on that one? Because McMillan, I don't think it's unrealistic that he could have 40 more targets than Jameson Williams.
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Jamie
I got Jamo way ahead of McMillan. It's contingent on McMillan looking like a rookie in training camp. If, if the reports are gaga for him like they were for Jameson last year, then that gap's going to close and it'll be closer.
- [15:34]
Dave
Yeah, I have them in a similar range, so again, it's probably how I started my team in a vacuum. I probably would take McMillan just with the opportunity for him to be the target leader on his offense and you know, hopefully have one of these rookie seasons like we saw last year, you know, with. Hard to say he's going to be a neighbors or Thomas, but, you know, the, the hope would be that he could produce in a similar type at a similar type of level.
- [16:00]
Adam
All right, just important context here. These are wide receivers 25 through 40 in ADP. So Jamie's saying he's going to have, you know, four wide receivers by the time we get through with this group. It probably extends a few more. Right. It's Juwan Jennings, Calvin Ridley, Cooper Cup. These are all guys that Brandon iu, Jaden Reed, they are not being selected in the first eight rounds of CBS ADP, but they're just after. So that's really about 45 wide receivers or so. And probably a good idea to have four of those. Okay. And we will talk about all these players individually in a moment. Draft a thon. Again, we do have some Mailbag spots still available. If you want to go to our draftathon page which is tinyurl.com 2025fft tinyurl.com 2025fft Please be right. I should memorize this right now, right? 20. 25. Yeah, nailed it. Let's see how many mailbag spots we have left. We have three left. Okay, so these are flying. Yesterday we had six. Now we have three. $50 to ask a question that will be answered on Friday show and it all goes to St. Jude. And it's just the beginning of draft A THON July 21st is when the FFT open spots open up. And you know what? I think maybe tomorrow I'm going to tell you all about it, who's in it and all that fun stuff. 24 leagues, $66,000 to raise for St. Jude via the FFT Open. One last fun thing to tell you about before we get into rounds. Round six of ADP with wide receivers the Early Edge Crew. Dave, you should fly up tomorrow and go to this Yankee Stadium. The Early Edge crew is at Yankee Stadium. For the Mariners and Yankees going to be Sia Najad, Claudia Bellafato, A mags Danny Brasco, Mike Barner and Larry Hartstein. For the Mariners and the Yankees on Wednesday night, come hang out, get free exclusive Early Edge merchandise like hats, shirts, bottle openers, key rings and silicone phone wallets. That's good stuff. Silicone phone wallets. I like that. All right. When you click on the link, there's a link to buy. I can put it in the episode description and or just buy tickets. Go to section 234. That's where the Early Edge crew will be. Starts at 7:05pm the game. And CBS Sports marketing is going to have a stand set up outside the stadium to give out merch to the ticket holders. I think you should actually probably have to go to the link that I'll put in the episode description. But if you're in New York and you want to go hang out with the Early Edge crew at Yankee Stadium on Wednesday night, this is a really cool opportunity. We'll be right back after this. I can't, unfortunately, but we'll be right back on WhatsApp. No one can see or hear your personal messages.
- [18:43]
Jamie
Whether it's a voice call message or.
- [18:45]
Adam
Sending a password to WhatsApp, it's all just this. So whether you're sharing the streaming password in the family chat or trading those late night voice messages that could basically become a podcast, your personal messages stay.
- [19:00]
Dave
Between you, your friends and your family.
- [19:02]
Adam
No one else, not even us. WhatsApp message privately with everyone. This episode is brought to you by State Farm. Sports are all about teamwork and so is insurance.
- [19:15]
Dave
Whether you need an in person or.
- [19:16]
Adam
Digital assist, State Farm is there to help you choose the right coverage for your home, car and more. Get a game plan that helps fit your life and talk to State Farm today. State Farm with the assist. Coverage options are selected by the customer. Customer availability and eligibility vary by state. Before we get into some quick news items and round six of adp, just something personal I'd like to share tonight. Today is my anniversary and I'd have to say objectively, as a husband, while I am not as good of a provider, I would have to say that I am a better husband, Jamie, than Tony Soprano.
- [19:59]
Dave
You started watching.
- [20:00]
Adam
I did, I did. I just want to let you know I am three or four episodes in and it is terrific. But he's really not a nice guy. He's philandering too much. We got to stop that. Tony.
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Dave
Yeah. I won't ruin it for you. Okay. But I'm so proud of you.
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Adam
Thank you. It's really, really good.
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Jamie
It only took him how many years?
- [20:24]
Adam
Six. I don't even know. All right, just a quick news items. Patrick Mahomes told K. Adams that it won't be. One person on the offense basically said they're going to spread the ball around. The receiver room is deep. We'll see. And Naim Hines is attempting a comeback, so good luck. That would be great. He was a. He was a fantasy relevant pass catching running back back in the day and suffered some injuries and hope Hines gets back out there. All right, the wide receivers, we want to talk about round six starting with wide receiver 25 in our ADP. Jerry Judy, Devonte Smith, Tetaroa McMillan, Cortland Sutton, Jameson Williams, George Pickens and Zay Flowers. That's a lot of guys. That's seven wide receivers. Jerry Judy, Devonte Smith, Tetteroa McMillan, Cortland Sutton, Jameson Williams, George Pickens and Zay Flowers. What jumps out there, guys? Dave, I'll throw it to you first with these round six receivers.
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Jamie
A lot of players that could be the number one receiver on their teams that aren't necessarily potent, high powered offenses. So we talked a little bit about, well, you'd obviously love to have a receiver that's going to get a lot of targets and play and an awesome offense. Well, you're getting one of those things for sure. In the case of Judy Sutton, probably McMillan. We'll see. And then the other ones, you're in great offenses, but you might not get the target volume that you want. And that's Smith, that's Jameson, that's Pickens, and I, I guess say Flowers qualifies there, too. So where do you draw the line? I said that I would obviously go for target volume first. That's why Sutton is ranked at the top of the list for me. Judy right behind him. And it's just. It's just looking for receivers that are going to get a lot of work. In the case of Sutton, his quarterback is competent.
- [22:16]
Dave
The.
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Jamie
The play caller is really good. You could make the argument that Denver's offense could be a good offense this year. Ended up being a good offense last year. They made the playoffs. Did they make the playoffs or am I tripping?
- [22:29]
Adam
Who? Denver? Yeah, they did. They lost to the Bills.
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Jamie
Yes. Okay, fine. But. But obviously more warts on these guys than in the previous rounds. But that's why they're here. These are borderline number two, number three wide receivers.
- [22:45]
Adam
All right, how about this exercise? Let's go. I have to exercise. Let's go through each round six, round six player. And just tell me, do you like this value? You like them in round six of a 12 team league? Jerry Judy.
- [22:59]
Jamie
Yes.
- [23:00]
Dave
Yes.
- [23:01]
Adam
Devonte Smith.
- [23:03]
Dave
Yes.
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Jamie
Yeah, I like Judy better, but yeah.
- [23:08]
Adam
Teteroa McMillan.
- [23:10]
Dave
Yes.
- [23:11]
Jamie
Yes.
- [23:12]
Adam
Cortland Sutton. Yes. Jameson Williams.
- [23:17]
Jamie
Yes.
- [23:19]
Dave
Yeah. George Pickens one round later.
- [23:25]
Jamie
I'm good with pickings in round six.
- [23:27]
Adam
Zay Flowers one round later.
- [23:31]
Jamie
I'd prefer Zay flowers in round seven, but if I had to take him in round six, I mean, this is where he's gonna go, so. Sure.
- [23:40]
Adam
And it is. You know, I guess you're right, Dave. If we separated it into guys who could get a lot of targets and guys who might or probably won't, it would be Judy, Sutton and maybe McMillan in the high target group. And Devonte Smith, Jameson Williams, George Pickens, a Flowers in the not so high. I don't want to say low target, but not so high target group. Does that sound right?
- [24:05]
Jamie
Set the line at seven targets per game, which is what Judy might get. Eight targets per game. We saw that from him last year. So if they're north of seven targets per game, the other guys might be right behind them. Like Pickens could be right at 7. It wouldn't shock me, but yeah, that's the line.
- [24:22]
Adam
All right, I'm going to give you a concern for everyone and you just tell me how much it bothers You, Jerry Judy? Yeah, sure. We love Joe Flacco.
- [24:32]
Dave
Right?
- [24:33]
Adam
Yeah, no, sorry. I was going to get it. You want to give the concern.
- [24:35]
Jamie
I was, yeah, you're the concern first.
- [24:37]
Adam
It's obviously the same because it's who's going to be the quarterback.
- [24:40]
Dave
Right.
- [24:40]
Adam
It could be Kenny Pickett, could be Shitter Sanders doing Gabriel, whatever. That's. What's the concern level there?
- [24:48]
Dave
The quarterbacks.
- [24:49]
Adam
Yeah, yeah. How concerned are you, though?
- [24:52]
Dave
I mean, it's an unknown. You know, you have Miles Garrett coming out and saying Joe Flacco gives him the best chance to win. How much is that going to, you know, matter to Kevin Stefanski and the coaching staff there, that they're going to listen to their veterans and. Or do they want to, you know, at some point start to develop one of these younger quarterbacks to see what they have. So if they're winning and Flacco is the starter, I'm sure he will stay under center. If they start to lose, then they make a decision, and who knows how much that impacts Judy. I think if you were to say right now, which I'm, I would guess is what Heath is sort of factoring in that if, if you were to say Joe flacco is starting 10 plus games, 13 plus games, you know, the entire season, the upside for Jerry Judy, as we saw last year, could be top 10. So, you know, it. It comes down to your, again, concern level over how many games, arguably their best quarterback. And listen, Sanders may be better, you know, or. Or Dylan Gabriel may be better.
- [25:46]
Jamie
I don't think it might be better.
- [25:47]
Dave
Or Kenny Pickett might be better, you know, I don't think so. But just based on what Flacco did in the system two years ago and what Judy showed with a veteran quarterback, who's going to give him chances to make plays. Like, I want to see Joe Flacco start the majority of the season. So if, if, if he does not win the job, then I will probably drop Judy a few spots.
- [26:06]
Jamie
Imagine saying this sentence two years ago. I want Jerry Judy on my fantasy team, especially if Joe Flacco is throwing to him for the majority of the season.
- [26:14]
Dave
Yeah. Yeah.
- [26:16]
Adam
Well, I was kind of the Jerry Judy supporter. I know if you listen to this show all summer, all year, rather. You've heard me say this before. But if you're new in 2022, he was number 22 per game, I believe. But also that that year he had three games where he barely played. He kept leaving. It was exactly like what T. Higgins had last year. He had three games where he had combined eight targets. In those three games, he played 1%, 14% and 38% of the snaps you took out those three games. He's averaging 15.8 PPR fantasy points per game. That's a top 15 wide receiver. So Jerry Judy, that was a year where he was competing with Cortland Sutton. It was Russell Wilson's first year in Denver. And at the beginning of the year, Cortland Sutton was the clear number one target. And Jerry Judy just basically outplayed him, usurped him and became the number one guy and had a strong finish. So it's not like last year was the first time we saw something really good from Jerry Jeudy. He has done it before. He's had really good advanced metrics throughout his career. There have been signs that have pointed to this good receiver that's never had the opportunity to thrive. Hopefully he'll have it for a full season. All right, so then Devontae Smith, you know, I'm gonna lump two guys together here, but devonte Smith, the concern is this, like if you look at what he has done when everybody has been healthy. Dallas Goddard, A.J. brown, and even throw Jalen Hurts in there because he's actually been a little bit better in like couple of games with Gardner Minshew a few years ago, you're talking about not even a top 35 wide receiver per game for Devontae Smith. So he, he kind of stinks when everyone is healthy. And then Zay Flowers, I actually don't. I actually feel like I can make a case for Zay Flowers going ahead of devonte Smith. I never see him ranked ahead of Devonte Smith. He's. His ADP is lower than Smith's on both fantasy pros and cbs. I think the reason is Dallas Goddard has missed so many games. 16 games or left early, not even including a couple of Week 18. 16 games over the last three years. And it has seriously inflated Devonte Smith's numbers. Zay Flowers didn't have that opportunity last year. Mark Andrews stayed healthy, Derek Henry stayed healthy, whatever. But I think the targets might be similar if everybody's healthy. And I think on a per target basis, Zay Flowers might be better than devonte Smith. They should feel like at least be looked at as very similar players. So anyway, give me your thoughts on those two guys. Dave and Dave, to start with you. And I guess your concern for both of them, it's really target volume.
- [28:56]
Jamie
Absolutely. It's definitely not talent. They're both extremely talented wide receivers. They might be A little lean, but they're very fast, they're very shifty and they, they play with good quarterbacks. I just, I'm worried about how many games we will get where they're seeing seven plus targets per. I would worry about both of them getting red zone targets as well. I think that's something that doesn't come very often for either one of them and that's what really pushes them down here. So when there are opportunities for them to play in a larger role, man, the track record says it, they're great. Just to point it out on Flowers, he started the year playing really well. Averaged almost 15 PPR points per game. Average 7.4 targets per game. That was through week nine and then after that, that's kind of when Mark Andrews started to become a touchdown hog and, and Flowers targets went down. They fell to like six and the end of the year averaging not even 10 PPR points. So it's just, it's frustrating when you don't get that consistency overall with these receivers because you know how good they are and the offensive coordinators will say all kinds of stuff. Todd Mockins said it this off season that we need to get the ball in Zay Flowers hands more. That might be great. But not only do you have Derrick Henry, who you gotta use in that offense, and you've got Mark Andrews, who's a great touchdown score. You added DeAndre Hopkins and you resigned Rashad Bateman to an extension. Yeah. So I have a hard time believing that Zay Flowers is going to see a target boost and especially see targets in, in the red zone, which is where he could really put up some huge fantasy points. We're not going to see that. And Devonte Smith, we know the track record. We've talked about it enough already.
- [30:42]
Adam
Do you agree, Jamie, that they, that they should be viewed similarly? Flowers? Actually, Dave, you mentioned seven targets per game. That's 119 targets for the season. Flowers, if you take out week 18 where he played 20% of the snaps, he was actually on pace for 121 targets and he was on pace for 1,112 yards but only four touchdowns. So that is the seven target per game mark. But Jamie, do you see Smith and Flowers similarly?
- [31:07]
Dave
I think Smith in his situation carries more upside because we've seen the missed time for two of his teammates.
- [31:15]
Adam
Yeah.
- [31:16]
Dave
And I also think, you know, I mean, again, you know, you reference people that have been watching us. You know, if, if you kind of know the narrative we're pushing with Saquon Barkley that we're concerned then if Barkley does miss any time because of an extensive workload last year, that should benefit the passing game to a certain degree and then that hopefully will lean to more targets, lend itself to more targets for devonte Smith. So I mean, I think Dave said it best about, you know, Flowers and his situation. The, the thing for Smith is we, we've seen high end production from him. We really haven't seen that consistently for Flowers. Again, different, you know, years in the league. So experience matters here and hopefully Flowers takes a step forward. But I think the off season edition of DeAndre Hopkins and things are saying about him, the fact that they kept Mark Andrews, the fact that they're pushing Isaiah likely you know, to, you know, have, you know, Pro bowl season. If, if that does come to fruition according to Harbaugh, then you know, the Eagles did nothing. You know, their receiving course did exactly the same except for maybe keeping Goddard which was a, you know, potential move that they were making. So I, I lean toward Smith and you know, you, you've heard me say this a lot. You know, Stefan Diggs, D.J. more. These receivers that are talented but just are in some unfavorable fantasy situations. I think that's the case for Zay Flowers too. Like, you know, we may never see his high end stats if he stays with Lamar Jackson. Jackson's profile has never been to have a receiver put up astronomical stats. It's just not something that they need to be successful. Maybe that changes this year, but I just don't see it.
- [32:46]
Jamie
There's also one very obvious thing that we, we could have said already, but I think it's almost implied at this point because everybody listening to knows with these offenses, these are run heavy offenses.
- [32:57]
Dave
Yeah.
- [32:57]
Jamie
And you look at the target share for these guys. Last year Devonte Smith was at 21% Z. Flowers was at 25%. Yeah, but they, these are teams that just will not throw the ball a ton as long as their workhorse running backs are healthy.
- [33:12]
Adam
But. Right. So a couple things. One, the Eagles actually have a much better chance to throw more than the Ravens. The Ravens are Almost always bottom five in past attempts in the Lamar Jackson era. Usually 30th or 31st or 32nd. The Eagles in their last three years with A.J. brown have been 21st, 23rd and 32nd in pass attempts. Actually had a decent amount of pass attempts the first two years. And they keep talking about how they want to change the offense and throw the ball a little bit more. And we keep talking about how they can't be as successful on the ground. So that favors Devontae Smith. However, huge difference, I think, in touchdowns because the Eagles have thrown 24 or 25 touchdown passes in three straight seasons. Jalen Hurts always runs for double digit touchdowns. Lamar Jackson doesn't. He usually runs for, I don't know, about five. So while they do obviously have Derek Henry, but Lamar Jackson has produced two seasons where the team has thrown for 37 or more touchdowns. So it is an absolute shock that Zay Flowers caught four touchdowns last year on 41 touchdowns for the team. I would say yards would probably favor the Eagles, but not necessarily because Lamar Jackson averaged 8.8 yards per attempt last year. And touchdowns, I would favor the Ravens in passing touchdowns. The Eagles have not eclipsed 25 in the Jalen Hurts era.
- [34:33]
Dave
Yeah, yes, but how many of those touchdowns are receiver touchdowns?
- [34:37]
Adam
No, they're not. But that's the thing. You just need him to, I'm saying.
- [34:41]
Dave
Like Bateman called not just last year, but like in, in, in their respective times in the league, like last two.
- [34:47]
Adam
Years, I guess, yeah, it certainly Jalen Hurts throws more touchdowns to his wide receivers than, than Lamar Jackson does. But yeah, all right, I think we've made our points. All right, so then Teteroa McMillan. I guess I can't go one by one, but Tedro McMillan is ahead of Cortland Sutton. We don't like that. But Tedro McMillan vs. Jameson Williams. How about Tedro McMillan vs Jameson Williams and George Pickens? How do you rank those three? Jamie?
- [35:16]
Dave
For now it's Williams, McMillan, Pickens. But I think, you know, you could make a case similar profiles. Like they're probably going to have to score touchdowns to have a lot of fantasy success. You know, McMillan's the wild card here because he could easily be the target leader for the Panthers. And it's worth, you know, mentioning because I don't think we say it enough. The way Bryce Young finished last year and the production that you saw from Adam Thielen, you know, does that sort of Translate to now, McMillan now feeling still there? So how much of that is a factor? You know, they were prior to the NFL draft talking up Xavier Leguette, who was a first round pick two years ago, you know, we could see, you know, maybe some steps forward for a Jalen Coker or Jataveon Sanders, but the draft capital they spent on McMillan I think speaks to them wanting to feature him and hopefully feature him prominently. And so wouldn't shock me if he has more targets. These guys, I think you said what, 40 more than Jameson Williams, Adam?
- [36:11]
Adam
I think it's realistic. Yeah. Because Jameson Williams was barely on pace for 100 last year.
- [36:16]
Dave
Right. And then, you know, Pickens, to me, is a little bit wild card with the Cowboys because I don't think Jake Ferguson is going away and I know CD Lamb's still going to get fed. So is Pickens going to be a, a five or six target per game receiver or is it going to be a seven plus target per game receiver? I would probably lean toward the former and, and say six is probably the ballpark, but he could do a lot with those six targets because he's so talented, you know, so they're, they're, they're in this range for a reason. And again, I think it comes down to the, the profile of you're looking at what, what you're looking for based on how you built your team. So McMillan, I think, has the most upside of the trio just based on the unknown. You know, he could come in and, you know, be the alpha for his team where these other two guys are not, barring an injury.
- [36:58]
Adam
Dave, how do you rank Jameson Williams? For Jamie, it was Jameson Williams, Tedro McMillan, George Pickens. How about you?
- [37:04]
Jamie
Yeah, I would put pick in second and McMillan third. I, I agree. I love the way that Bryce Young finished last year. I'm hoping he builds off it. I'm still not convinced that Carolina is going to be even a good offense, maybe league average, and without the guarantee that, that McMillan's gonna dominate targets. He can lead the team in targets, but no one on that team last year other than Deontay Johnson for like a quarter of the season averaged more than six and a half targets per game. So until I start feeling a lot better about McMillan's role and, and all that stuff, I, I can't put him ahead of Pickens, who, again, I think Dallas is going to throw a lot this year, and I think that Pickens won't lead the way. He'll have some games where he's better than Lamb, of course, but I could still see him getting around seven targets per game. And Jameson last year, six of his final seven regular season games. He had at least seven targets in each of them and he averaged over 15 PPR points. I'm hoping that that's his jumping off point and that that's us. That's him showing us what he can be scaled out over a full season.
- [38:11]
Adam
With McMillan, you know, top 10 pick in the draft. If we look at the last five NFL drafts and the, the players who were top 10 picks, how do they do as rookies? 2021 Devonte Smith did not have a good rookie season. 44th per game. Jalen Waddle though he had, I don't know, maybe you could see this being a realistic stat line for McMillan. 104 catches, 1015 yards, six touchdowns on 142 targets. It's just, it was just volume, volume, volume that made Waddle 24th per game in non PPR but 14th per game in full PPR. Jamar Chase had a huge year. Bengals had a huge year passing the ball. He's not Jamar Chase. Not going to happen. But maybe waddle. 2022 Drake London and Garrett Wilson they both were not top 30 wide receivers. Drake London was on an absolutely pathetically horrible passing offense. Garrett Wilson's team threw for 4000 yards with only 15 touchdowns. And then last year we had Harrison and Odunze who were busts and Neighbors who was great. I think Neighbors and Waddle had something in common in that they were really the only guys neighbor. Wondale Robinson did have 140 targets but you know, Neighbors was obviously so much better yet. 20, 30% target per run rate or something which was second highest in the league. Waddle, his target competition was Micah Sicki. So I, I could see that path of just so much volume for Tettero McMillan. Unless we are taking Xavier Lega and.
- [39:45]
Dave
Adam Thielen seriously, feeling is the one that's answered. What'd you say Dave? Deontay Johnson was average.
- [39:50]
Jamie
What targets for you he averaged in Carolina? 8.3 targets per game on a sub 10.
- [39:56]
Dave
A dot feeling when he came back from the hamstring injury was just shy of eight targets per game in his final six. So can, can that be where McMillan sort of lives? Right? Is, is he that much of a, of a go to option and again more so than guys that are, we think are, you know, probably speed bumps but could be potential, you know, strong options in, in the Carolina offense. And so to me it's really feeling because I don't think we get's going to be like a guy that is going to get enough targets like I think young trust Thielen. I think the coaching staff trust Thielen. You know it's a matter of does, does the younger future of the team sort of push the older player to the side and let's not forget feeling missed. I think it was at least seven games with the hamstring injuries last year. So if he does, you know, struggle to stay healthy then that's that's a big plus for McMillan. But I, I think, I think McMillan is one of these guys that, you know, we're going to see. You know, we talk about this a lot second half of the season, like, you know, where he starts to really click and, you know, hopefully Young is playing to the same level because he finally took a step forward. I, I, I struggle with this off. Like, you know, Davey made the comment bottom half, that's probably the best way to view it. But their line is so good. The running game should be strong again. And, and now they're adding this piece that will hopefully help their passing game. Like, it's, it's, it's still a former number one overall pick. You could, you know, debate how Bryce Young has performed so far this year. Getting benched last year, his height, all these things that still sort of factor in with him. But you gotta hope that maybe something did click for him second half of the season. That, with, with still, I think, you know, a young offensive mind that, that can be good and Dave Canalis, like, can make all this work. So I want to be optimistic about the Panthers.
- [41:49]
Adam
I don't know why, but for me, there's just, it almost feels like for me, Round seven is where I, I'm, I feel like I can settle for someone. Round six, I feel like I'm still looking at really good players, and if I could get McMillan in round seven, I just feel so much better. Right. I mean, it's so obvious you want a guy around later, obviously, but I guess maybe I'm thinking about the running backs that are going in that range and the drop off once we get to round seven at running.
- [42:17]
Dave
I couldn't agree more. I'd love to get McCaffrey in, like.
- [42:18]
Adam
Round 10, but I don't know, it almost feels like there's a caliber of player that I expect in round six and a pretty kind of significant drop off that I expect in round seven. And I would just not want to spend one of my first six picks on McMillan, but, well, I, I think.
- [42:33]
Dave
That'S, that's the best part of this game that we play. You know, it's like every, every draft is a different, you know, animal, and you sort of like, think about what we're all, you know, experiencing right now with the fishbowl. You know, I, I'm sure you guys are getting asked questions, you know, what do I do here? Who do you like in this spot? You know, your friends that are in it and, you know, people that are doing it for the first time. I've probably had like four or five questions just in round one. Lamar Jackson or tight end? You know, which running back makes the most sense here? You know, it's, it's, it's, it's, it's so fun to sort of figure this out and, and even looking at this, like, think about it, you know, you get to round seven, right? We're looking at a range of players I'm sure we all would consider Juwan Jennings and Calvin Ridley at this spot.
- [43:16]
Adam
Yeah.
- [43:16]
Dave
In the same range of guys. Right. And, and ADP is telling us they're going later. Cortland Sutton is somebody I think we'd be fighting over if there is. If he's still sitting there in round six. Round seven. Yeah.
- [43:25]
Adam
But I think for me, looking at the CBS adp, it's, it's the running backs, right? It's the running backs in round seven. Caleb Johnson. Quinn, Sean Judkins, David Montgomery, Aaron Jones, DeAndre Swift. And then. Oh, no, that's in round six. That's around six. And then round seven, it's Brian Robinson Jr. Tony Pollard, Isaiah Pacheco. Obviously I like Pacheco, but I, I think there's such a drop off there. I might be taking a running back in round six and hoping, hoping to get one of these guys to follow me in round seven.
- [43:57]
Dave
That's kind of what I was alluding to before. Like we could have so much fun dissecting it, you know, almost like on a two round basis and how you're, you're building your team, you know, so you get to this point, like, what'd you do in the first four or five rounds?
- [44:09]
Adam
So round seven. Let me just ask you this right now, before we go to break. Tettero McMillan, would you take Tea Millen or these guys in round seven? Chris Godwin.
- [44:19]
Dave
I would take God.
- [44:20]
Jamie
I would too.
- [44:21]
Adam
Jordan Addison over McMillan. Chris Olave.
- [44:26]
Jamie
I'll go McMillan over Olave.
- [44:28]
Adam
Jalen Waddle.
- [44:31]
Dave
Waddle. Following the Jonas mystery.
- [44:34]
Jamie
Agreed.
- [44:35]
Adam
Romo Dunesay McMillan.
- [44:38]
Jamie
Same.
- [44:39]
Adam
Ricky Pearsall McMillan.
- [44:42]
Jamie
I like Ricky, so I'll take Ricky over.
- [44:44]
Dave
I would take Jennings over McMillan, though.
- [44:49]
Adam
We're definitely going to take McMillan over Kalishka. All right. We're also going to take a break and we're going to lament the fact that Jamie had a very nice pun opportunity to say something like the get amount of targets. It was, I don't remember it, but it was so obvious and you just didn't take it. But that's fine. We'll be right back I guess we'll have to finish the show on FFT. Shop 4th of July Savings at the Home Depot right now and get up to 40% off plus up to an extra $600 off select appliances with free delivery like Samsung. From all in one washer dryers to smart refrigerators. Upgrade to tech you can trust with Samsung appliances. The Home Depot has what you need to simplify your routine. Don't miss 4th of July appliance savings.
- [45:31]
Jamie
At the Home Depot.
- [45:32]
Adam
Free delivery on appliance purchases of $396 or more. Offer valid June 18 through July 9, US only.
- [45:38]
Jamie
C store or online for details.
- [45:42]
Adam
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- [46:13]
Dave
Well, since. Since. Since you're going to criticize me for not taking advantage of a pun opportunity, it was nice that you not only shoehorned the fact that you watched the Sopranos and you used your anniversary to do it.
- [46:25]
Adam
Yeah. So I was trying to find a fun way to do it. Yeah.
- [46:29]
Dave
So look at me twice by you. Nice shirt you're wearing, by the way.
- [46:33]
Jamie
Thank you.
- [46:35]
Adam
This is Jamie's shirt. Jamie's shirt from 1989. I wear. I slept in it and I forgot to change before I got on the air. So.
- [46:45]
Jamie
Wow, you're wearing Jamie shirt to bed.
- [46:48]
Adam
Yeah, often. It's a good. It's a good sleep shirt. It's kind of baggy, and my daughter.
- [46:54]
Jamie
Wears her boyfriend's hoodie to bed once in a while.
- [46:56]
Adam
God. All right, round seven wide receivers. So Chris Godwin is. Is, you know, pretty easy. We don't know the health. We're going to keep an eye on it, but what's the highest you could see?
- [47:09]
Dave
See.
- [47:09]
Adam
Pardon me, I'm moving the mic there. The highest you could see Chris Godwin for you. He's currently about 70th overall or a little bit after that.
- [47:20]
Jamie
It's going to be hard for me to keep him out of my top 20 if he's moving around fine and is his old self in Tampa.
- [47:28]
Dave
It's not just the injury for me, though. It's. It's a buka, you know, I mean, the fact that they drafted A player who could play in a. In the same spot and kick him outside, which would not be a surprise. I mean, we've seen that happen to him in his career. You know, he's been at his best when he's been in the slot the majority of the time. And so what makes the most sense for Tampa Bay's offense? Because they have another guy. You know, it's like we always Forget about Jalen McMillan. I. I'm not saying us, but it's like, you know, whenever we discuss this, it's like, oh, yeah, they only have three guys, or, you know, only the top two guys. They have four pretty solid wide receivers at this point. And does McMillan keep a Buka off the field? And I think if that's the case, then we're looking at Godwin probably being the primary slot receiver. If Godwin and Abuka are the two and the three behind Evans, then where's Godwin playing mostly? Well, he's probably playing on the outside. And so does that benefit Godwin's fantasy potential? Now, I would think that we're going to see these guys move around a lot because there's so much potential for all of them to play a variety of spots, and that makes the most sense for their offense to keep them, you know, fluid and hard to defend. But when we start to say, okay, slot percentage and. And where they're lining up, like I would think if, if the top three are Evans, Godwin, Nabuka, the most sense of where they all line up is probably a book of playing the majority of time in the slot. So that makes me concerned for Godwin.
- [48:50]
Jamie
I would go the other way on that. Okay, first of all, I think a Buka can play out wide, and the Bucks have said as much like they're comfortable lining them up everywhere and don't disagree. You're saying the same thing about Godwin. If Godwin, let's just say that he's just not as explosive as he was last year and he's still working his way back. The perfect spot for him to be in is in the slot where he can use, you know, his route running and just short area agility to help get himself open and be an easy, reliable short area target for Baker. Whereas Abuco, who's got healthier legs at this point, can work along the outside or they put a book on the bench and they use McMillan. They could also do it based on matchups. If they're place playing a team that's got slow corners, you're going to see more of McMillan on, on the outside. And we'll see less of Godwin and Ibuka.
- [49:39]
Adam
Less of Godwin. I mean, well, I mean, more or.
- [49:43]
Jamie
Less of a buka than less of Godwin, but you might see fewer targets for Godwin in those games.
- [49:47]
Adam
I mean. Yeah, less of God. Yeah. Okay. Godwin. Like I said, number three wide receiver per game in ppr. And it coincided with two things. One, a return to health. He took him a while to recover from the torn ACL. And a return to the slot because in 2023 he played out wide way too much. He is much, much, much better from the slot and was a target hog and a fantastic player. Arguably the best pick in fantasy before his injury.
- [50:13]
Jamie
Jordan playing out wide coming back from injury in 2023, right?
- [50:17]
Adam
Yes. So I think he came back from injury in 2022, right. He tore his ACL in 21. Let me see. He tore his ACL.
- [50:28]
Jamie
This is where I defer to Jamie.
- [50:29]
Adam
He tore his ACL in 2021. 2022, he just struggled coming back from the injury. 2023, he was out wide. But also he was a guy who said it took him about two years to really feel like himself again, which is why I'm not counting out Javante Williams at this point. But that's a topic for another show. Jordan Addison is next in ADP. From weeks 11 through 18, Jordan Addison was actually on pace for 15 touchdowns and 140 targets as Minnesota started to throw the ball more. What is the difference between Jordan Addison and Jameson Williams? Jamie, why is everybody higher on Jameson?
- [51:05]
Dave
I think the concern of J.J. mcCarthy, at least for me, you know, so if McCarthy is not Sam Darnold, which is just crazy, but if McCarthy is just not going to support and you got to factor in TJ Hawkinson here, if he's not going to support three high level targets, where does Addison lose? Well, he probably loses in the touchdowns because that's what sort of saved him for the majority of the first two years of his career. Because I don't think Jefferson's targets are going to disappear. Why would you not focus on him as the best player on this team? And Hawkinson's going to obviously get his opportunities as well. So if Addison sees some regression, hopefully not significant regression in his touchdowns, then we have a problem here, you know, So I think that's where Addison sort of takes a little bit of a step back, at least for me. I think he's so talented, you know, go back to draft. There was like, oh, why did he go there? Because you know he wasn't going to be the alpha of his offense. Thankfully, his talent has shined through and Kevin o' Connell recognizes that and gives him the chances to make plays and gives him those red zone opportunities. But, you know, you're asking a lot from, you know, essentially a first year starter, rookie starter in, in McCarthy coming off this knee injury. So I still believe in the system. I believe that McCarthy is going to excel in this system. I don't think it was a Sam Darnold thing. I think it was what Kevin o' Connell does to get these guys open and make plays. And I think McCarthy will do just fine, but I think that's what keeps Addison in this range as opposed to maybe closer to Jameson Williams.
- [52:34]
Adam
Okay.
- [52:34]
Jamie
There was a big change in the middle of last year. Jamie kind of touched on it. It's red zone work. So he had nine touchdowns last year.
- [52:42]
Adam
Yeah.
- [52:43]
Jamie
Eight of them came week nine or later. Six of those eight were in the red zone. Four were inside the 10.
- [52:50]
Dave
Those health also. He had the hamstring injury early.
- [52:52]
Jamie
Right. So he got a little bit healthier. He saw an uptick in targets per route run in the second half of the year. Went over 20%. He averaged 7.6 targets for him. He averaged 4.6 targets per game in the first half of the year. That's terrible. So be it because of his health or because they said to themselves, hey, we've got this awesome receiver, let's use him. Addison saw an uptick in work. The end result was great fantasy production. You've got to hope that that stays consistent from the start of this year. And I don't see why it wouldn't.
- [53:22]
Adam
The only thing you've got to worry.
- [53:23]
Jamie
About with him is a suspension.
- [53:25]
Adam
Yeah, it's pass attempts too. Hold on.
- [53:28]
Jamie
That could set his draft stock lower and then we're buying the dip on that.
- [53:32]
Adam
Sure. Yeah, it was a bunch of things. It was pass attempts. Sam Darnold was throwing 35.5 passes per game in the last eight games compared to 29.6 in Addison's first seven games. It was a lower ADOT went from 15.3 yards for in weeks one through 10 to 11.8 yards in weeks 11 through 18. And ironically it coincides he did better when TJ Hawkinson was back. But that's because they were throwing the ball a lot more. All right, so then we have Chris Olave and Jalen Waddle. Who do you guys like better, Olave or Waddle?
- [54:15]
Dave
I like Waddle. Right now Olave makes me so nervous. You know, just the quarterback situation and his health. He's clearly so talented and you know, we were very excited by now. I was very excited about him last year and you know, the multiple concussions and now you have these quarterback concerns. The, the best thing about Olave is if, if he stays healthy, he should dominate targets. But what happened last year when he was healthy, Rashid Shahid was, you know, out targeting him and that was extremely frustrating. So Shahid back. They didn't really do much to enhance this receiving core. There's. There's huge upside. I think he's one of the better values like this could be the Godwin player this year of, you know, you're getting him at this cost and if he does get back to staying on the field and somewhat competent quarterback. I asked this question to a few people yesterday. Is this the worst quarterback competition in NFL history? Yeah. Somebody. Somebody referenced the Steelers when it was, I think Mark Malone and somebody else like in the 80s. It. It just. It just feels awful.
- [55:22]
Adam
Yeah, but seriously, based on. Based on what we've seen so far in the NFL, is the Saints quarterback competition that much worse than the Colts quarterback competition?
- [55:31]
Jamie
Yes.
- [55:32]
Adam
Really?
- [55:32]
Dave
I would say so. Just because you have a proven starter and two top ten overall picks.
- [55:38]
Adam
A proven horrible starter, two dreadful quarterbacks.
- [55:41]
Dave
But. Yeah, but, but pet like this, the Saints would be tripping over themselves to get one of the Colts quarterback.
- [55:47]
Adam
I mean, based on pedigree. Yes. But based on actual results. Daniel Jones is. Is just horrible failure so far.
- [55:54]
Dave
Spencer Rattler's debut was not exactly great.
- [55:56]
Adam
Yeah, no, it's awful. I. I don't know why I'm arguing this. It's. It's awful. This. It's so bad.
- [56:01]
Jamie
Daniel Jones, that's why two years ago.
- [56:03]
Adam
Mike Evans was going in this range. He ended up having a huge year. I think that was Baker Mayfield's first year with the team and Godwin was playing out wide. Wasn't that good there. I don't think there's a chance that one of these quarterbacks could have the kind of year that Baker had, which wasn't great in 2023, but it was good. But. But that you said like he could be that kind of value because if he dominates targets. I do think the Rashid Shahid factor is really interesting though, because Shahid, there's.
- [56:32]
Jamie
A little more to it that could help Olave as well. And it's Kellen Moore calling plays. And Kellen Moore isn't going to ask his quarterbacks to do something that they're just not capable of doing. And so I would expect a fast paced offense. I would expect them to trail in a bunch of games. I don't think their defense is particularly good. And I, I think you could see if Olave stays healthy, which has become a bigger if over the last 12 months, that he could see north of seven targets per game on a regular basis. And we've seen it from him. We saw it last year and we saw it the year before. He puts up numbers when he gets targets. That's just that he's good. Jamie said it. Really talented wide receiver. And so if you're getting that type of volume and you're a really good wide receiver, you're going to put up fantasy points.
- [57:15]
Adam
I like to thank our producer Debo and AI for this list of the worst quarterback competitions we've ever seen. 2022, 2002 Cowboys Quincy Carter versus Chad Hutchinson. 2003 Ravens Kyle Bowler versus Anthony Wright and Chris Redmond. 2005 Dolphins Gus Farat versus Sage Rosenfels and AJ Feely. Okay, nice. All right, let's move on here. We've got a few more players. I know that Khalil Shakira is going to be your least favorite of the next four. The next four. Jalen, Waddle, Roma, Dunze, Ricky Piersall and Khalil Shakir. I think Khalil Shakir is going to be your least favorite of the four. Shakir was very solid, very solid and consistent last year. It was. If he scores more touchdowns, he might actually outproduce this range. But I totally understand where you guys are coming from. So how do you rank Waddle, Odunze and Pearsall? And you know what? Throw Jennings in there too. Might as well get both Niners guys in there. So it's Waddle, Odunze and the niners guys.
- [58:16]
Dave
Waddle, Jennings, Pierce all Shakir.
- [58:23]
Adam
Oh, Dunze. Oh, here's after Odinze right now. Yeah, well, I'm sorry, I'm sorry, I'm sorry. I interrupted Jamie and I confused myself. Can you do it one more time?
- [58:34]
Dave
Waddle, Jennings, Piersol, Shakir, Odunze right now.
- [58:38]
Jamie
Okay, Dave, give me Pierce all first. Waddle next Jennings after that and Shakir over Odunze. All this is in pencil.
- [58:47]
Adam
All right. My fault. I thought Odunze would be ahead of Shakir. I was wrong. So, Dave, why are you so high on Ricky Pearsall?
- [58:58]
Jamie
Because I love the talent. Love what I saw at the end of last year. I always like the talent and I think that there's going to be A good opportunity provided that he's healthy. I know that he's dealing with something right now heading into training camp, but he's, he's got that profile of a do it all type of wide receiver that, that can work very nicely in Kyle Shanahan's offense.
- [59:24]
Adam
Jamie, why do you like Jennings better than Pearsall?
- [59:29]
Dave
I think we talked about this yesterday on I think Sports Network. I'm a little. Still concerned that Pearsall's health is going to be problematic. You know, based on his career at Florida and what we see right now that he's dealing with a hamstring injury. I know James a little banked up also, but I just trust Jennings right now a little bit more. You know, I, I said this from the beginning when, you know, we didn't know what was gonna happen, especially after the, the Samuel trade. Like you should take them in a very similar range. There's. There's upside for both of them. They're ranked very close. For me, I just think that Jennings, as we saw last year, when he got opportunities, he was, he was successful. I think he's going to have the most opportunity. I think he's gonna be the target leader on this offense because that. You're going to struggle to come back. So it's just a slight lean toward, toward Jennings. I think you're, you're smart to get pieces of this offense because we know how good it could be and in the range that these two receivers are going like you can pair them together really if you wanted to. But you should try to take a chance on one of them. Third receiver, fourth receiver, depending on your build. So Kittle should be the first pass catcher drafted for the the 49ers. Unless you're considering Christian McCaffrey pass catcher. But in any event, it should go Kittle and then pick your favorite 49ers receiver. That's. I should say they should go Kittle and then one of these two guys. Ayuk should be third and, and in my opinion, a distant third. I just prefer Jennings. I think he's gonna have a better year.
- [60:48]
Adam
Dave Jalen waddle in his career. This is where he's finished per game in PPR, 14th, 14th, 22nd, 56th. Why should he not be? He's been been top 22 three of four years. Why should he not even be a top 36 receiver in ADP?
- [61:03]
Jamie
I'm just worried about him ever finding that upside in this version of the Dolphins offense. We know from 2023 he never did anything when Tyreek and HM were on the field. He barely did it last year. Three games. He has 15 plus PPR points in nine of his past 37 games. For a dude who's as talented as he is, that is shocking that he's got like a 25% hit rate on his, on his, on his fantasy production.
- [61:33]
Adam
Waddle is 34th actually in Dave's rankings. 32nd for Jamie, 38th for Heath. I think he's about 36th or so in ADP and Romo Dunesay. How much did you guys downgrade Odunes a after the NFL draft when they took Loveland and Burden with the first two? Is that why he's so low for you guys?
- [61:57]
Dave
It's a concern. I mean, you know again you look at as we talked about with DJ Moore like who's going to be the best receiver on this team and you can make a case for more. You can make a case for a Dunesday. It may be Burden and maybe Loveland. You know, just in terms of pass catchers. Now the fact that the two rookies are banged up is a benefit to Odunze but he really struggled last year and you know how much of that was Caleb Williams in the offense? I, I would put the majority on that because you don't produce the way that he did in college, have the profile that he had and, and the expectations and expecting to struggle to this level. So there's huge bounce back potential here. So if you're carrying the Detroit offense to Chicago, is he Saint Brown maybe. Is he Jameson Williams? That's probably where I would lean and is, is the target volume going to be there enough to support him? So like I said, I think I have him ranked a little bit too low. You already have me debating Shakira versus Odunze right now in my head.
- [62:50]
Adam
So let's go and say let's go Rome.
- [62:53]
Dave
I, I think there's more safety versus upside and so it's a matter of, you know, do you want to, do you want to take a chance on, on the potential best receiver on what could be a much more explosive offense and that's probably the way to go.
- [63:08]
Adam
All right. And then finally we're going to finish with two wide receivers going in round eight. Jacoby Myers and Matthew Golden. Jacoby Myers and Matthew Golden. Dave, who do you prefer?
- [63:18]
Jamie
I have Myers ahead of golden and it's solely because I just don't know what to expect from golden at this point. Myers has been pretty safe, pretty reliable as a number three fantasy receiver. He's going to suffer the same type of upside hit that Bowers is going to suffer because this is a team that's going to run the ball more and they added two rookie receivers. It's Dante Thornton who's actually made more of an impact this off season than Jack Bash. That could flip in training camp or they could both end up being good in training camp and that could take targets away from Jacoby Myers. I feel like Myers is in that same boat as Shakir. I like Shakir better where you just look at him and say, all right, I can get a dozen PPR points out of him in a given week.
- [64:03]
Adam
Okay, Jamie, who do you prefer, Myers or Golden?
- [64:07]
Dave
Right now it's Myers. I actually prefer Reed over Golden right now as well. So that whole, like, range of guys, I feel like I need to just continue to reevaluate because, like, Myers gets such a huge quarterback upgrade. I don't think that should be overlooked. Geno Smith is going to be much better than what the Raiders had last year. Now, Dave has expressed his concerns, understandably so, for Brock Bowers and maybe the run game being that much better for the Raiders and just the target volume going down. Well, if it's going to go down for Bowers, it's definitely going down for everybody else because they're not, hey, guess what? Let's just feature, you know, these two rookies and Jacoby Myers. But there is still an opportunity for him to be the best wide receiver on his team. And he was still productive last year and he's been sort of this quiet, steady, you know, number three four fantasy receiver really since his, you know, quote unquote breakout in New England. He's been solid for the Raiders, especially after they traded Devonte Adams. So there's a lot to like about him, but it almost feels like he's a version of Khalil Shakir. Like not somebody that's going to be a difference maker, just someone that's got a very safe floor. And so I think it's just a matter of, like, how you want to build your team.
- [65:15]
Adam
Last year was the first time Jacoby Myers was on pace for or had 1,000 yards. He was on pace for 1,164 yards. So, you know, and he was on pace for 146 targets. Yeah, if he's 120 targets, he's probably not going to do much for your team. But round, round eight, you could do worse than that and maybe he will.
- [65:39]
Dave
There's another guy that's going to climb into this range too, and that's the Fond Diggs.
- [65:42]
Adam
Yeah man, there's Diggs, there's Cup, there's Jennings, there's Ridley, there's Jaden Reed. There's still some good wide receivers that we haven't talked about that we will talk about on tomorrow's show, and we expect at least some of them to to climb pretty high in adp. I'm just stunned that Juwan Jennings and Calvin Ridley are not round seven picks, but they're not even round Apex. So that is for tomorrow's show and we'll save it for then. We'll also talk to you on FFT Express, which you can hear in this feed. The FFT Express feed is now becoming the beyond the Box Score feed. Just subscribe to all of it and we'll talk to you tomorrow on Fantasy.
- [66:18]
Dave
Football.
- [66:26]
Adam
Paramount Podcasts, you found your ultimate NFL Draft destination. Get ready for with the First Pick part of the CBS Sports Podcast Network, join hosts Ryan Wilson and Rand Carthon twice a week for the most insightful draft analysis out there. Over the next several weeks, we're diving deep into the biggest questions facing all 32 NFL teams, scouting the top college prospects ahead of the 2026 NFL Draft and giving you front office insights you won't find anywhere else. Download and follow with the first pick on Apple Podcasts, Spotify and anywhere podcasts are found.