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Your Dynasty Questions ANSWERED! One Man Dynasty Fantasy Football Mailbag (06/03 Dynasty Fantasy Football Podcast)
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- [00:00]
Heath Cummings
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- [02:46]
Heath Cummings
Welcome to Fantasy Football Today Dynasty. I am your host Heath Cummings and today we're we've got a one man mailbag. I love answering your questions here on podcast here on YouTube and I know we are live not just on YouTube, we're also live over on X. If you're watching on X and you want to ask questions in the chat, please come over to YouTube to do that because I will be going through later in the show the final segment and answering as many of your questions from the YouTube chat as I can. Right now though, we are starting with Brian Thomas Jr. I had an email and a tweet about Brian Thomas Jr. And kind of a similar question first we had from Ryan asking if Hunter hurts Thomas's upside. And then Chris tweeted and asked if I would sell high on Brian Thomas Jr. What I'll say is I There wasn't a huge impact yet on my Brian Thomas projection for this year or his Dynasty ranking. He didn't go down in either one of those rankings. That doesn't mean that Hunter could not impact his upside. As I talked about with Jacob Gibbs earlier this month, or maybe it was last month, I I think it's still a little bit uncertain who is going to function in what role. And over the next three years I wouldn't be surprised if there's a stretch where Hunter's the wide receiver 1A and Thomas is the 1B. So yeah, that probably does maybe hurt Thomas's floor a little bit more than I think it hurts his upside. I think there's plenty of room for for Thomas and Hunter to be very good fantasy options, just like we've seen from Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. So am I trying to sell him high? I have him ranked in Dynasty as the wide receiver six, so there's five wide receivers I'd rather have before him. It's possible if you're a true contender and somebody's trying to get young, maybe you could turn them into CD Lamb. I certainly think that would be selling high. I also have Bijan Robinson, Ashton Genty and Brock Bowers ranked ahead of Brian Thomas in the trade chart. So if you could go get one of those guys the one thing I would say say is if I'm selling high, I'm probably not doing it for someone who I think is worse than Thomas. Because when you look at my dynasty rankings and I'm gonna have tears coming out next week and you'll see this Thomas is at the end of a tier. There's a bigger gap between him and wide receiver seven than there is between him and three or four wide receivers before him. So if I'm selling high on Thomas, I'm trying to upgrade. I'm not trying to downgrade and maybe add another player unless I'm getting a significant value in addition to that second wide rece. We've got a few emails here to read before we get to our first break. The first one was a very long, very sweet email from Zach. And Zach, thank you for being a part of the program. Thank you for following along. Thank you for participating in Scott Fishbowl. But I'm not going to read the whole email. I'm going to read your question. If you're in a rebuild, should you trade Lamar Jackson? And I think we look at quarterbacks as like the one position that we can keep a good player while we're rebuilding because they'll still be good when we're done rebuilding. Jackson's 28 years old. That should not be a concern for a quarterback. I say should not because we know how much of his production comes from rushing. I think the the emailer actually had an offer of Kyler Murray, Kyron Williams and a mid first which is enough for me to move off of them. The problem is I'm not sure that Kyler fits better in a rebuild window than Lamar does and I certainly don't think Kyron Williams fits better in a rebuild than Lamar does. So that's not the type of player but it is the type of value I would be looking for. I think you have a little bit of concern once Lamar turns 30 or 31 years old, is he going to be able to do the same thing with his legs? Probably not. And if he's not, can he remain an elite fantasy quarterback with half the rushing production or 2/3 the rushing production? And the answer is probably not. So I do think if you're going into a rebuild, and I would apply this also to Josh Allen who will be a year older than Lamar at the start of the season. I think both of those guys probably not quarterbacks that I'd want to hold on to three through a rebuild. Whereas the other guys in that tier, Jaden Daniels, Joe Burrow, Patrick Mahomes I'd feel more comfortable with. Hertz is just a little bit younger, so he's kind of in the middle. But if I had Jackson or Allen and I was moving into a rebuild, those are great pieces to acquire. A lot of young players and picks that can really help you kick that rebuild off. I would be trying to take advantage of that if I was you. And another email from Rich which of the 2024 rookie busts and he listed Ricky Pearsall, Xavier Leggette, Keon Coleman, Jalen Polk and Adnai Mitchell. Ben Sennett do you think have the best potential to break out in 2025? And I think this one is a pretty good gap for me between Ricky Pierceall and everybody else in that group. He's the guy that we hope with Brandon Iuk missing it probably at least the first month. I expect the first half of the season with Debo Samuel now gone to Washington, Pearsall really competing with Juwan Jennings for the number one wide receiver role early in the year. I currently expect Jennings to be that guy. But that doesn't mean that Pearsall can't be effective as a number three wide receiver as the number two in San Francisco. So he would be my clear top choice of if you're trying to buy low on some of these rookies who disappointed in 2024, the second one would be Keon Coleman. The problem with Coleman is there's not really that much evidence to give you hope that he will. But he's attached to Josh Allen and there's no clear number one wide receiver in Buffalo. So that's the reason that you have hope here. Souls the the clear number one Coleman would be number two. I don't have much hope for the rest of the guys that you mentioned in this email. Rich Third email or maybe fourth from Conrad. So when should I be drafting running backs in a startup? This is another one that was a little bit longer email. I'm kind of boiling it down. You hear a lot of people talk about in startups you want to draft wide receivers, you want to draft quarterbacks. Running backs aren't going to last that long. Wait and get them until you're contending. It's funny, I actually had another email we're not going to get to today from a guy who had done that approach and was loaded at quarterback and wide receiver but was now trying to figure out what do I do, how do I get some running backs and they are the easiest position to trade for. But I think I'm a little bit higher in startup, specifically Super Flex on running backs than maybe most people are. I would still take Bijan and Genti in round one. Even in Super Flex, I would still take Jameer Gibbs and Achan in round two. Round three, I don't maybe if you've decided you're gonna go win now the 34 turn is when you start cons I can start considering Barkley. Round four, there's a few more in the breeze. Hall, Kyron Williams, Chase Brown, Bucky Irving group and then round five is when you really see a lot of the rookie running backs for me and that point and beyond I think is where more people are going to be comfortable. Like a lot of the top wide receivers are going to be gone. A lot of the top quarterbacks are going to be gone. So round five is probably where you see more of a glut of running backs. But that kind of gives you a range of where I'm taking some of the top running backs in my Dynasty Startup rankings. Let's take our first break. I see we're already getting some questions in the chat. I will pin a couple of those and we'll be right back with some of your questions from Social Media. Optimize your nutrition this year with Factor America's number one Ready to Eat Meal service. Factor's fresh Never Frozen meals are dietitian approved. Ready to eat in just two minutes. Choose from 40 weekly options across eight dietary preferences like calorie smart, protein plus and keto. Eat smarter@factormeals.com listen50 and use code listen50 for 50% off plus free shipping on your first box. Factor meals.com listen50 code listen50 this season, let your shoes do the talking.
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The brands you love like Birkenstock, Nike, Adidas, New Balance and more. Head to your DSW store or visit dsw.com today. Apparently it is trading season because a lot of the YouTube chat questions are about trades. We will get to those after our second break. Right now we're going to get to some of our questions from social media. Thank you to everybody for sending those in. Matt sent Jaylen Waddle and Chris Olave. We had two Olave trade questions come in today for to a strong contender for Piersol Downs, a 2026 second and a 2026 third, Matt's rebuilding. This person's a contender. So I think it's okay to give up a little bit of value. But I also think you gave up the two best players in the deal on my trade chart. You gave up about 24 points for 19 points. That's a little more of a disparity I would like to see, especially if I'm giving up the two best players in the deal. So I don't love this Chris Olave trade. Let's talk about the other Chris Olive trade from Jose. It's a super flex PPR trade. He traded DK Metcalf, Chris Olave and a 2026 second for a Monroe St. Brown. This is. I chose this one for a couple of reasons. First, I love to give A's and this is an A plus Jose. Second, I want to explain. This kind of helps show how the trade chart works because if you compile those values in the trade chart, you get 29.9 for the for the Alave side and 29.5 from Unri St. Brown. So it seems like a dead even trade. Maybe I even gave up a little bit too much. But if you're getting the best player in the deal and if you're doing a three for one deal, I think you should expect to pay at least a 20% surplus. I would expect you had to send out at least 36, 35, 36 points in value on the trade chart to get St. Brown and you didn't do that. I think you got a 20 discount. So well done, Jose. AJ had an easier question. What do we do with Deontay Johnson? Probably nothing. Does he have any future value? Is he done? It seems to me like he's the, the most likely outcome is that Deontay Johnson's done. Now most of you guys that play in dynasty leagues have deep benches, as do I. And if you're in a league with a deep bench and you wanted to send a fourth round pick for Deontay Johnson, or if you happen to see Deontay Johnson on the waiver wire, which who could blame somebody after last year and you have that a roster spot available and you want to speculate on him, I think that makes a lot of sense. He's always been good at earning targets. He's not ever been very good at turning those targets into fantasy points. And I'm not sure his current situation is one that's going to improve that. But in the full PPR league, if you start two, three wide receivers and two flexes, if everything goes Right. He might turn into somebody that you're starting just based on the reception volume alone. We've seen that from Johnson often in his career. I just wouldn't want to wager anything more than a fourth round rookie pack pick or a couple of fab dollars on that possibility because it's really rare that a player goes through teams like Johnson did last year and they let him go and and then he gets to a situation like the one Johnson's in now and he starts to have success. So I think he's probably done but worth one of the last couple of bench spots on your roster. Coach says Is RJ Harvey a good pick for a Rebuilder? Been a lot of debates about how much it matters that RJ Harvey is 24 years old as a running back prospect. I think a lot of people have rightly said it doesn't matter at all. You're only getting one contract out of most of these running backs anyways that that might be true. It's a lot more true for a contender than it is for a rebuilder. If you're not trying to win football games or fantasy football games in the next two years or even in the next year, then you might be looking at a 25 or 26 year old Harvey before he ever starts helping your team accomplish the goals you were trying to. And his values already been pumped up so much by the fact that Sean Payton took him earlier than we expected and the Broncos have talked about him as a three down back and the expectation is he'll lead the team this year. But Harvey's not a bargain and so it's hard to see his value going up significantly over the next two years as a running back. Running back values don't normally do that. So I think he's not a good pick for a rebuilder. If I was on the clock and he was my favorite player, I would be looking to move down. And if I was a rebuilder, this will get me in some trouble with some people. You'll probably clip it and halfway through this season when Harvey's in RB1, I'll have to hear about it. I would take Abuka, I would take Burden, I would take Golden, I would take Loveland over Harvey if I was truly a rebuilder and couldn't move back and accumulate some more pick value because I just don't think he's a very good pick for a rebuilder. Colin, who sends in a lot of questions. We always appreciate you calling you just updated rankings. Do you see more volatility in one position over another. And if so, does that mean for an age neutral player we should just consistently sell high on that position? I I will say I highlighted this a little bit with a couple of positions as I was updating the rankings. But if you look at my running back rankings right now, RB10 let's start with RB9 RB9 Chase Brown was RB31 a year ago. RB10 Bucky Irving was RB46 a year ago. RB18 Chuba Hubbard was RB49 a year ago. That's three of the top 20 and two of the top 10 running backs in my Dynasty rankings this month that were outside of the top 30. Two of them were outside of the top 45 last year. You go look at the wide receiver rankings for this month. Zero of the top 19 wide receivers were outside of the top 30 last year. So there's much more volatility at the running back position than there is at the wide receiver position. Does that mean that you should just consistently sell running backs who pop? I don't think so. Unless you're in a rebuild period then absolutely. But as a contender, those running backs have value because they score fantasy points and help you win games. But there certainly is much more volatility in the running back position. Wide receiver, quarterback, more stable tight end. It barely matters outside of the top four or five right now. Coach K says Would you rather keep devonte Smith? He's somebody we've talked a lot about here recently. Or have Jameson Williams and a 2026 second rounder? I think both these guys are really interesting because they both might need some sort of injury to truly meet their potential. They're also really interesting because in my most updated rankings I have Smith as wide receiver 23. I have Williams as wide receiver 24. We've gotten a lot of coach speak from Dan Campbell this summer about how a big season is coming for Jameson Williams. They've got a new offensive coordinator, maybe that target distribution changes just a little bit. So I'm a little bit more hopeful for some upside for Williams. I do still prefer Smith and Dynasty but their values are very close and I would take the 2026 second and Williams if someone offered me that for Smith. I particularly would do that if I had an eye towards a couple of years from now because Williams is two years younger than Smith. It's hard to believe with all the things that have happened in Jameson Williams career. He's still a 24 year old but he is and he does have an immense amount of upside. Shows has shown the ability throughout his career to score. No matter where you're snapping the ball from, he might just go score on that play. That's a nice attribute to have in a wide receiver. 3 We've got one more social media question. It was a very good one I thought. How Lawn Enthusiast asks how do you analyze when a first or second year player has outlight outlier touchdown production? Is it a feature of his game like Jordan Addison versus that season just being the outlier and regression is coming? I think like the way and this is influenced by my projections background and the fact that I do projections on a yearly and weekly basis during the season is I've got some parameters. I don't generally go outside. And what they are is for guys who have really been bad at scoring touchdowns, I'm still going to expect them to score on 3% at least of their targets. That's kind of the, the low end for a wide receiver. It's 4% for tight ends, it's 2% for running backs. That's somewhat scientific. That's somewhat just an easy mark to have as the floor for a touchdown rate going into a season. For projections I generally don't project wide receivers over 6%. Now you talk about somebody like Jordan Addison. He's been close to 10 in his career. No, I don't think that's a feature of his game. I think he has some regression coming but it does show that he's valuable. The team they're targeting in that area of the field and it shows that he has the talent to potentially be better in other areas than he has been so far. Guys can get outside of that. Like I'll project Mike Evans for a tight end touchdown rate because Mike Evans scores 10 touchdowns seemingly every single season. Gronk was the same way. I just project him as an outlier in terms of touchdown rate. George Kittle's the same way. I project him as an outlier. But it takes more than one or even two years. I think you see that in the way that I talked about James Cook going into last year. He had four rushing touchdowns coming into his third season in the league. I didn't think there was any reason to believe that he couldn't score touchdowns. I didn't think he'd score 16, but I projected him for significantly more and he was able to do that. So there, there's ranges and if a guy's been really good at scoring touchdowns, I'm much more likely to project him at a 6% rate than I am a guy who never scores touchdowns and gets projected at a 3% rate but I don't go all the way to what their career scoring rate is. I still like to keep a little bit of, I guess you would call it regression factored into those projections and that certainly does influence my wide receiver rankings as well. And Dynasty. I, I will say, you know, I thought we were going to take a second break, but I think we're moving through this quick enough. We've got some questions in the chat. Let's just jump right into those. If you guys send enough questions we will take a second break and if you don't, we'll just hammer right through them. Milt, first question in the chat. Would you take Garrett Wilson and a 2026 second for Lad in a rebuild? So it's, it's kind of strange just first impressions to be trading a guy in his second year in lad McConkey for more of a veteran and Garrett Wilson about a two year difference between those two. And I have McConkey ranked as a top 12 dynasty wide receiver. He's at 12 for me right now. Garrett Wilson's at 19. I've come around a little bit on him with Justin Fields as kind of looking through Fields passing the last couple of years there has been some improvement and there's the college connection between those two but that's still a significant difference in value and they're not in the same tier either. I have McConkey in a at least one tier above where Garrett Wilson is for that reason. I don't think a 2026 second would be enough for me to make that deal. I would just hold on to lad McConkey. Second question. I'm a strong contender. Good job. Congratulations in a 12 team dynasty league. I lost in the finals last year. That's terrible. I just traded a late 2026 first and a 2027 first and Ramandre for Christian McCaffrey. I've got Brock Purdy thoughts. My first thought is that's an overpay. My second thought is if you win the championship last year, this year, you're not going to care. That was an overpay. I'm. I'm really nervous about trading those firsts not this year, but 2026 and 2027 for a player who might not be helping me win football games or fantasy football games at that point and so the team has a better chance of falling off. And those picks not being quite as late as you think they are. I like it a lot more before the 2025 draft trade that 2025 pick away because you already know it's late. Maybe even trade that 26 pick away because you know that you've got a stacked roster for next year and everything can't go that wrong for it to be a good pick. But the 2027 pick that's going to be we expect a really, really strong class and it's a situation where you don't have complete control at this point over how good your team is going to be. Then trading for a player like Bijan who's probably still good in 2026 and still helping you be good, that would make more sense. Trading it for McCaffrey, that's an enormous risk. But again, you won't mind taking that risk if you go win a championship. Mark asks would you trade Justin Jefferson for Nico Collins and Rashi Rice? And so if you look does not say if it's Super Flex, we will assume that it's Super Flex and I have a value of 36 points on Justin Jefferson and the chart. Malik Neighbors is not far behind. And so you're kind of just throwing in Rice for free and I don't think or getting Rice for free. I have a hard time even with the risk concerns about Rice and the knee injury which Patrick Mahomes says he looks like himself and the concerns about the court case though we don't hear anything about any legal problems for Rice right now. He's just he's been getting sued but nothing from the actual legal system. Those two concerns are hampering Rice's value a little bit in my dynasty rankings and in his trade value. But you're almost getting him for free here. I absolutely love this deal. I would Smash except Evan asks is Caleb Johnson the starter in Pittsburgh? Probably not. If you're being pedantic about it, I expect Jalen Warren's going to get the Week one start. I think Jalen Warren's going to fly, really play at least 40 of the snaps. I do think Caleb Johnson will be the leading rusher in Pittsburgh. The question about his fantasy value versus what we've seen from Naji Harris the last couple of seasons is how many touchdowns did he score? What's his rushing efficiency like? And then Harris still had an acceptable role from time to time in the passing game even with Warren. Does Johnson? If Johnson can function as a pass catcher and he can take the majority of those carries inside the five yard line, then I think you probably see Johnson as someone who could still be a fantasy starter even if he's not technically the starter for the Steelers to begin the year, but if not, or if they don't get a quarterback and Mason Rudolph leading this offense and they just don't score that many touchdowns, then Johnson's probably just a flex and maybe a low inflex and full ppr. If Warren dominates the work in the passing game, we got a trade question from Raph. Grade the trade. 10 teams full PPR, one QB this looks like James Cook and the 106 for a 2026 first and CD Lamb. So you're definitely getting the best player in the deal. CD Lamb, you said it was 1 QBs. We'll get over to the 1 QB trade chart and CD Lamb is my seventh highest valued player at 40 points in the trade chart. James Cook. I've talked about this a little bit over the last couple of weeks. I think he's a spectacular player, but there's significant touchdown regression so he's only worth 18 points on that trade chart. The 106 is probably going in. One QB is probably going to be somewhere around 20 points in value, so it's not that far off to just trade cook and the 106 for lamb. If you're getting a 2026 first as well, that's an A plus. Great job Raph. I think you won that trade and you're going to feel really good about it for a long time to come. We're going to go ahead and take our second break to give me a chance to star some more of your questions, and I'll ask some more of your chat questions right after this break.
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- [28:44]
Heath Cummings
This is not a question, but this is fine. Says the people love Heath. You know, thank you for that sentiment. I love talking to you guys here on YouTube and answering your questions. Oh, there's another question that was about Travis Hunter, so let's just answer this one. Would you be more surprised if Hunter finished as a wide receiver 3 or a wide receiver 1? Curious about the floor versus the ceiling and the likelihood of each? I actually have Hunter projected as a wide receiver three for his rookie year, so that is not would not be very surprising to me at all. I would be mildly surprised if he's a top 12 wide receiver, maybe even a little more than that. So I would definitely be more surprised if he's a wide receiver one as a rookie than if he's a wide receiver three this year. That being said, I think I'd be more surprised if he's never for dynasty purposes, if he's never better than a wide receiver 3 than if he eventually becomes a wide receiver 1, if that makes sense. I think that there's there's significant reason to believe that Hunter's going to have wide receiver one seasons. I'm just not sure that happens as a rookie with Brian Thomas Jr. We've got a question here. Would you trade away Nico Collins for Garrett Wilson and Justin Fields in a super flex rebuild? I I think that's probably really close to what the trade chart shows in terms of fair value. I I've got Nico valued in that format at right around 28 points and fields and Wilson are definitely worth more than that. The the one thing I would caution here is I don't know that I love trading for Justin Fields in a rebuild. I've really come around on the idea looking at the depth chart, looking at what he's done as a starter, that he's going to be a top 12 quarterback this year. I think he's a better AD though, for a contender because he's not valued as a top 12 quarterback so you can get value just in acquiring him and because if they're really bad, I think they draft a quarterback next year. So I'm not sure that Fields actually has great value to a rebuilder unless he's just awesome this year and gets a long term extension. I do think he is a good person to target if you're a contender and looking for a cheaper QB2 with almost QB1 certainty for one year. Take a look here. We got a question from Christian how should I value Tyrone Tracy and Khalil Shakir? Trying to use them to snag some draft picks this season but I don't know what I should be feeling like they're worth and you're not probably talking to someone who's going to be super excited about them. I have Shakir in Super Flex worth about nine points, which if you're talking about rookie picks, that's right where Jackson Dart is now. I've seen Jackson Dart go in the first round, so when I say that I'm not saying I think Shakir's worth a first rounder. I just have Jackson Dart as a round two pick and Super Flex so around two pick for Shakir makes sense to me. I would expect Tracy's going to be quite a ways behind that, but I'm pretty optimistic about Cam Scatter Boo and pretty skeptical about Tracy. If I could get an early round two for Shakir and a late round two for Tracy, I would feel really good about that. Take a look and see if we've got any other trades to grade. We'll get out of here in just a couple minutes. Again, always thank you guys for participating in these chats for having all the questions. That's why we get to do what we do. If you get a chance and you can go to Spotify and subscribe to this podcast, give it a five star review. Be very helpful and allow me to tell the bosses that we should do more of these types of shows. Jude says Dynasty, Super Flex grade the trade Lamar and Kincaid for Jaden Daniels and Brock Bowers and you just broke the trade chart because you won that trade for so much. I actually value Daniels over Lamar in in a Dynasty and Bowers is the number one tight end while Kincaid's barely still a number one tight end. Fantastic job there. If there's a singular team that looks head and shoulders above the rest, do you look to rebuild to get onto his level or contend and hope he falters? I I think there's usually one of these in each league and my my question when I'm looking at their roster is if two or three things go wrong in a deep league, that's not really that surprising. You might have two or three guys get hurt, you might have two guys get hurt and one guy disappoint. If two or three guys get hurt, is this team still ahead of everybody else? I was looking at our Baked Burger league and I hopefully he's listening right now, but one guy has won the league the first two years of the league and just traded for Justin Jefferson, an absolute behemoth of a roster. But he doesn't have any picks and I look at his bench and he doesn't really have any depth and so I can see that he might be vulnerable. If I was the fourth best team in the league, I'm probably thinking I'm going to contend and hope he falters. But if it's one of those situations where they've got an just completely overpowered starting lineup and they have three or four starters on their bench, then I think realistically you're probably not going to catch that guy this year and it makes sense to try to get more picks. Let's see if we've got one more question. Great question here at Chris Olave Spuds asked if the trade chart is available online. Yes it is at Sports at Sportsline. Go check that out. He was offered a lava and a 2027 first for 202 and 203. I would do that deal quickly. That's going to wrap it up for fantasy football today. Dynasty. The one man mailbag 30 minutes is one minute too many. We will talk to you on Friday.
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Paramount Podcasts
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