Fantasy Footballers Podcast Episode Summary
Episode Title: 10 Things to Remember from 2019 + Buy or Sell
Release Date: February 18, 2020
Hosts: Andy Holloway, Jason Moore, Mike "The Fantasy Hitman" Wright

Introduction

In this engaging episode of the Fantasy Footballers Podcast, hosts Andy Holloway, Jason Moore, and Mike Wright dive deep into the key takeaways from the 2019 fantasy football season and offer their expert Buy or Sell recommendations. The episode combines insightful analysis, friendly banter, and actionable advice to help listeners refine their fantasy strategies for the upcoming season.

Buy or Sell Segment

Topic: Will DK Metcalf Hit 1,000 Receiving Yards in His Second Year?

• Overview: The hosts discuss the potential of DK Metcalf reaching 1,000 receiving yards in his sophomore season. They analyze his rookie performance, the Seattle Seahawks' offensive dynamics, and the possible impact of Russell Wilson's strategies.

• Key Points:

  • DK Metcalf's Progress: Metcalf showed significant improvement in his rookie year, finishing with 900 receiving yards. The trio believes his development will continue, especially with increased snap counts starting around week eight.
    • Andy Holloway (07:54): "He was more complete as a wide receiver from a route tree than what he didn't show that in college."
  • Russell Wilson’s Offensive Approach: Wilson has expressed a desire to adopt a more up-tempo, pass-heavy offense, akin to the Kansas City Chiefs, which could provide Metcalf with more opportunities.
    • Andy Holloway (11:05): "I think they're going to throw the ball a little bit more than they did this year."
  • Historical Performance: Statistically, Metcalf is among a select group of players with at least 900 receiving yards as a rookie, with a reasonable chance to break the 1,000-yard mark in his second year.
    • Jason Moore (13:00): "Historically, Metcalf was one of 41 players all time to have at least 900 receiving yards as a rookie."

• Conclusion:

  • Andy Holloway: Buys DK Metcalf, projecting him to surpass 1,000 yards.
  • Mike Wright: Agrees but highlights the challenges, noting it's not an "easy buy."
  • Jason Moore: Supports the buy, emphasizing Metcalf's talent and the Seahawks' ability to utilize him effectively.
  • Andy Holloway (07:56): "It's a clear buy. I definitely will project DK Metcalf for 1,000 yards next season."

10 Things to Remember from 2019

The hosts each present their top ten takeaways from the previous fantasy football season, offering insights meant to guide listeners in crafting more effective strategies.

10. Hype Check (Jason Moore)

• Summary:

  • The episode underscores the danger of overhyping certain NFL teams or players based on preseason expectations or superficial successes. The hosts remind listeners that smart defensive coordinators and head coaches critically assess and counteract offensive hype.
  • Jason Moore (19:20): "Recognizing the fact that there is going to be a difference between hype and delivering on the hype from year to year."

• Takeaway:

  • Avoid letting team hype cloud judgment in player evaluations. Focus on individual performance metrics rather than collective team narratives.

9. Wait on Injuries (Andy Holloway)

• Summary:

  • Andy advises patience with players returning from injuries, citing past examples like AJ Green and Saquon Barkley. Inconsistent performance post-injury can hurt fantasy teams, so it's crucial to assess the player's recovery and current form before committing.
  • Andy Holloway (23:10): "If you have an injured guy, there's no reason to say, let me have the injured guy. There's other uninsured guys."

• Takeaway:

  • Be cautious with players coming off injuries. Consider benching them until they demonstrate consistent performance levels.

8. Free Agency is Fun, But Be Careful (Mike Wright)

• Summary:

  • While free agency presents exciting opportunities, the hosts caution against overlooking the human factors affecting player performance, such as relocating and adapting to new teams or environments. These changes can impact a player's consistency and output.
  • Mike Wright (27:07): "Players are human beings... They're learning a new playbook. They're learning a whole entire new life."

• Takeaway:

  • Evaluate the potential challenges players face when joining new teams beyond just their on-field roles. Stability is key for consistent fantasy performance.

7. Talent Can Win Out (Jason Moore)

• Summary:

  • The hosts challenge the traditional belief that players on winning teams are inherently better for fantasy purposes. In 2019, players on losing teams like Devonte Parker and Christian McCaffrey proved that talent and opportunity can shine even in less successful franchises.
  • Jason Moore (30:02): "In the modern NFL, players on losing teams are thriving week in and week out, even with bad quarterbacks."

• Takeaway:

  • Don’t discount talented players simply because their teams have losing records. Evaluate individual performance irrespective of team success.

6. Don’t Overreact to Week One (Andy Holloway)

• Summary:

  • Early season performances can be misleading. The hosts emphasize the importance of not making hasty decisions based on the first week’s results, whether it’s buying or selling players prematurely.
  • Andy Holloway (35:00): "Don’t sell the guys that sucked. Don’t buy the guys that blew up. Breathe. Give yourself a little bit of time."

• Takeaway:

  • Treat the first week as an outlier and wait for more consistent data before altering your roster based on early performances.

5. Early Quarterbacks Aren’t Always Safe Bets (Mike Wright)

• Summary:

  • Investing heavily in early-round quarterbacks can be risky, as historically, few top-drafted QBs outperform their draft positions. The hosts advise considering quarterbacks as later-round selections to maximize value.
  • Mike Wright (38:42): "Early round quarterbacks are not safe just because they're a quarterback."

• Takeaway:

  • Prioritize quarterbacks in later rounds to avoid the high risk associated with early picks, ensuring you get more value from your initial selections.

4. No Country for Old Running Backs (Jason Moore)

• Summary:

  • Running backs have short career peaks, typically around age 24. The hosts caution against assuming longevity for top drafts, highlighting that many elite running backs deteriorate quickly.
  • Andy Holloway (43:38): "The statistical peak of running backs is younger than you think."

• Takeaway:

  • Avoid "autopiloting" running backs in dynasty leagues. Continuously evaluate their performance and potential decline rather than relying on their past success.

3. Take More Risks with Rookies (Andy Holloway)

• Summary:

  • Reflecting on the previous season, Andy acknowledges his own hesitance to embrace rookie talent fully. He now advocates for a more aggressive approach in valuing rookies, recognizing their potential to significantly impact fantasy lineups.
  • Andy Holloway (47:03): "I want to take more risks with the 2020 rookies."

• Takeaway:

  • Embrace rookie players more confidently, leveraging their potential to transform your fantasy team rather than shying away due to uncertainty.

2. Touchdowns Fluctuate (Mike Wright)

• Summary:

  • Touchdown numbers can vary greatly from season to season, affecting the value of top wide receivers. The hosts recommend focusing on volume-based metrics beyond touchdowns to evaluate player potential accurately.
  • Mike Wright (48:59): "Passing touchdowns go all over the place."

• Takeaway:

  • Assess wide receivers based on target volume and consistent reception metrics rather than solely on touchdown production, which can be unpredictable.

1. Fix Your League (Jason Moore & Andy Holloway)

• Summary:

  • The top takeaway emphasizes the importance of addressing structural issues within fantasy leagues before the season begins. Common problems like Week 17 championship games or outdated scoring systems can hinder league enjoyment and competitiveness.
  • Jason Moore (52:15): "Number one thing to remember from 2019, of course, is fix your league."
  • Andy Holloway (52:30): "Identify the problem. Fix it."

• Takeaway:

  • Proactively resolve league format issues, such as eliminating Week 17 championships or adjusting scoring systems, to enhance the fantasy experience for all participants.

Mailbag Questions

Question from Chris:
"I have the number one pick in a startup Dynasty draft and I'm thinking Mahomes over Lamar or should I be taking CMC or Barkley? What do you guys think?"

• Mike Wright:

  • Response: Advises against selecting Lamar or Mahomes with the number one pick in a two-quarterback league, suggesting focusing on wide receivers instead.
  • Mike Wright (57:05): "There is 0% chance that I am entertaining taking Lamar or Mahomes with my number one pick."

• Andy Holloway:

  • Response: Recommends selecting Mahomes over Lamar in a two-quarterback league due to his longevity and consistent performance.
  • Andy Holloway (58:02): "If I've got the number one pick in a two quarterback league... I would take Mahomes with the number one."

• Jason Moore:

  • Response: Emphasizes the value of retaining top running backs and Christian McCaffrey, arguing against selling high-performing players prematurely.
  • Jason Moore (59:26): "I have no inkling indication or desire to sell Christian McCaffrey right now."

Conclusion

The Fantasy Footballers deliver a comprehensive review of the 2019 season, offering strategic insights and cautionary advice to enhance fantasy team management. By highlighting the importance of mitigating hype, cautiously approaching injuries, judiciously navigating free agency, and prioritizing structural league fixes, the hosts equip listeners with the knowledge to optimize their fantasy football experience in the new season.

Notable Quotes:

• Andy Holloway (07:54): "He was more complete as a wide receiver from a route tree than what he didn't show that in college."
• Mike Wright (23:10): "If you have an injured guy, there's no reason to say, let me have the injured guy. There's other uninsured guys."
• Jason Moore (19:20): "Recognizing the fact that there is going to be a difference between hype and delivering on the hype from year to year."
• Andy Holloway (35:00): "Don’t sell the guys that sucked. Don’t buy the guys that blew up. Breathe. Give yourself a little bit of time."
• Mike Wright (38:42): "Early round quarterbacks are not safe just because they're a quarterback."
• Andy Holloway (43:38): "The statistical peak of running backs is younger than you think."
• Mike Wright (48:59): "Passing touchdowns go all over the place."
• Jason Moore (52:15): "Number one thing to remember from 2019, of course, is fix your league."
• Andy Holloway (52:30): "Identify the problem. Fix it."

This summary captures the essence of the Fantasy Footballers' episode, providing a clear and structured overview of their discussions, key insights, and actionable advice for fantasy football enthusiasts.