10 Things to Remember from 2019 + Buy or Sell

Summary

Fantasy Footballers Podcast Episode Summary
Episode Title: 10 Things to Remember from 2019 + Buy or Sell
Release Date: February 18, 2020
Hosts: Andy Holloway, Jason Moore, Mike "The Fantasy Hitman" Wright

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Introduction

In this engaging episode of the Fantasy Footballers Podcast, hosts Andy Holloway, Jason Moore, and Mike Wright dive deep into the key takeaways from the 2019 fantasy football season and offer their expert Buy or Sell recommendations. The episode combines insightful analysis, friendly banter, and actionable advice to help listeners refine their fantasy strategies for the upcoming season.

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Buy or Sell Segment

Topic: Will DK Metcalf Hit 1,000 Receiving Yards in His Second Year?

• Overview: The hosts discuss the potential of DK Metcalf reaching 1,000 receiving yards in his sophomore season. They analyze his rookie performance, the Seattle Seahawks' offensive dynamics, and the possible impact of Russell Wilson's strategies.

• Key Points:

  • DK Metcalf's Progress: Metcalf showed significant improvement in his rookie year, finishing with 900 receiving yards. The trio believes his development will continue, especially with increased snap counts starting around week eight.
    • Andy Holloway (07:54): "He was more complete as a wide receiver from a route tree than what he didn't show that in college."
  • Russell Wilson’s Offensive Approach: Wilson has expressed a desire to adopt a more up-tempo, pass-heavy offense, akin to the Kansas City Chiefs, which could provide Metcalf with more opportunities.
    • Andy Holloway (11:05): "I think they're going to throw the ball a little bit more than they did this year."
  • Historical Performance: Statistically, Metcalf is among a select group of players with at least 900 receiving yards as a rookie, with a reasonable chance to break the 1,000-yard mark in his second year.
    • Jason Moore (13:00): "Historically, Metcalf was one of 41 players all time to have at least 900 receiving yards as a rookie."

• Conclusion:

  • Andy Holloway: Buys DK Metcalf, projecting him to surpass 1,000 yards.
  • Mike Wright: Agrees but highlights the challenges, noting it's not an "easy buy."
  • Jason Moore: Supports the buy, emphasizing Metcalf's talent and the Seahawks' ability to utilize him effectively.
  • Andy Holloway (07:56): "It's a clear buy. I definitely will project DK Metcalf for 1,000 yards next season."

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10 Things to Remember from 2019

The hosts each present their top ten takeaways from the previous fantasy football season, offering insights meant to guide listeners in crafting more effective strategies.

10. Hype Check (Jason Moore)

• Summary:

  • The episode underscores the danger of overhyping certain NFL teams or players based on preseason expectations or superficial successes. The hosts remind listeners that smart defensive coordinators and head coaches critically assess and counteract offensive hype.
  • Jason Moore (19:20): "Recognizing the fact that there is going to be a difference between hype and delivering on the hype from year to year."

• Takeaway:

  • Avoid letting team hype cloud judgment in player evaluations. Focus on individual performance metrics rather than collective team narratives.

9. Wait on Injuries (Andy Holloway)

• Summary:

  • Andy advises patience with players returning from injuries, citing past examples like AJ Green and Saquon Barkley. Inconsistent performance post-injury can hurt fantasy teams, so it's crucial to assess the player's recovery and current form before committing.
  • Andy Holloway (23:10): "If you have an injured guy, there's no reason to say, let me have the injured guy. There's other uninsured guys."

• Takeaway:

  • Be cautious with players coming off injuries. Consider benching them until they demonstrate consistent performance levels.

8. Free Agency is Fun, But Be Careful (Mike Wright)

• Summary:

  • While free agency presents exciting opportunities, the hosts caution against overlooking the human factors affecting player performance, such as relocating and adapting to new teams or environments. These changes can impact a player's consistency and output.
  • Mike Wright (27:07): "Players are human beings... They're learning a new playbook. They're learning a whole entire new life."

• Takeaway:

  • Evaluate the potential challenges players face when joining new teams beyond just their on-field roles. Stability is key for consistent fantasy performance.

7. Talent Can Win Out (Jason Moore)

• Summary:

  • The hosts challenge the traditional belief that players on winning teams are inherently better for fantasy purposes. In 2019, players on losing teams like Devonte Parker and Christian McCaffrey proved that talent and opportunity can shine even in less successful franchises.
  • Jason Moore (30:02): "In the modern NFL, players on losing teams are thriving week in and week out, even with bad quarterbacks."

• Takeaway:

  • Don’t discount talented players simply because their teams have losing records. Evaluate individual performance irrespective of team success.

6. Don’t Overreact to Week One (Andy Holloway)

• Summary:

  • Early season performances can be misleading. The hosts emphasize the importance of not making hasty decisions based on the first week’s results, whether it’s buying or selling players prematurely.
  • Andy Holloway (35:00): "Don’t sell the guys that sucked. Don’t buy the guys that blew up. Breathe. Give yourself a little bit of time."

• Takeaway:

  • Treat the first week as an outlier and wait for more consistent data before altering your roster based on early performances.

5. Early Quarterbacks Aren’t Always Safe Bets (Mike Wright)

• Summary:

  • Investing heavily in early-round quarterbacks can be risky, as historically, few top-drafted QBs outperform their draft positions. The hosts advise considering quarterbacks as later-round selections to maximize value.
  • Mike Wright (38:42): "Early round quarterbacks are not safe just because they're a quarterback."

• Takeaway:

  • Prioritize quarterbacks in later rounds to avoid the high risk associated with early picks, ensuring you get more value from your initial selections.

4. No Country for Old Running Backs (Jason Moore)

• Summary:

  • Running backs have short career peaks, typically around age 24. The hosts caution against assuming longevity for top drafts, highlighting that many elite running backs deteriorate quickly.
  • Andy Holloway (43:38): "The statistical peak of running backs is younger than you think."

• Takeaway:

  • Avoid "autopiloting" running backs in dynasty leagues. Continuously evaluate their performance and potential decline rather than relying on their past success.

3. Take More Risks with Rookies (Andy Holloway)

• Summary:

  • Reflecting on the previous season, Andy acknowledges his own hesitance to embrace rookie talent fully. He now advocates for a more aggressive approach in valuing rookies, recognizing their potential to significantly impact fantasy lineups.
  • Andy Holloway (47:03): "I want to take more risks with the 2020 rookies."

• Takeaway:

  • Embrace rookie players more confidently, leveraging their potential to transform your fantasy team rather than shying away due to uncertainty.

2. Touchdowns Fluctuate (Mike Wright)

• Summary:

  • Touchdown numbers can vary greatly from season to season, affecting the value of top wide receivers. The hosts recommend focusing on volume-based metrics beyond touchdowns to evaluate player potential accurately.
  • Mike Wright (48:59): "Passing touchdowns go all over the place."

• Takeaway:

  • Assess wide receivers based on target volume and consistent reception metrics rather than solely on touchdown production, which can be unpredictable.

1. Fix Your League (Jason Moore & Andy Holloway)

• Summary:

  • The top takeaway emphasizes the importance of addressing structural issues within fantasy leagues before the season begins. Common problems like Week 17 championship games or outdated scoring systems can hinder league enjoyment and competitiveness.
  • Jason Moore (52:15): "Number one thing to remember from 2019, of course, is fix your league."
  • Andy Holloway (52:30): "Identify the problem. Fix it."

• Takeaway:

  • Proactively resolve league format issues, such as eliminating Week 17 championships or adjusting scoring systems, to enhance the fantasy experience for all participants.

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Mailbag Questions

Question from Chris:
"I have the number one pick in a startup Dynasty draft and I'm thinking Mahomes over Lamar or should I be taking CMC or Barkley? What do you guys think?"

• Mike Wright:

  • Response: Advises against selecting Lamar or Mahomes with the number one pick in a two-quarterback league, suggesting focusing on wide receivers instead.
  • Mike Wright (57:05): "There is 0% chance that I am entertaining taking Lamar or Mahomes with my number one pick."

• Andy Holloway:

  • Response: Recommends selecting Mahomes over Lamar in a two-quarterback league due to his longevity and consistent performance.
  • Andy Holloway (58:02): "If I've got the number one pick in a two quarterback league... I would take Mahomes with the number one."

• Jason Moore:

  • Response: Emphasizes the value of retaining top running backs and Christian McCaffrey, arguing against selling high-performing players prematurely.
  • Jason Moore (59:26): "I have no inkling indication or desire to sell Christian McCaffrey right now."

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Conclusion

The Fantasy Footballers deliver a comprehensive review of the 2019 season, offering strategic insights and cautionary advice to enhance fantasy team management. By highlighting the importance of mitigating hype, cautiously approaching injuries, judiciously navigating free agency, and prioritizing structural league fixes, the hosts equip listeners with the knowledge to optimize their fantasy football experience in the new season.

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Notable Quotes:

• Andy Holloway (07:54): "He was more complete as a wide receiver from a route tree than what he didn't show that in college."
• Mike Wright (23:10): "If you have an injured guy, there's no reason to say, let me have the injured guy. There's other uninsured guys."
• Jason Moore (19:20): "Recognizing the fact that there is going to be a difference between hype and delivering on the hype from year to year."
• Andy Holloway (35:00): "Don’t sell the guys that sucked. Don’t buy the guys that blew up. Breathe. Give yourself a little bit of time."
• Mike Wright (38:42): "Early round quarterbacks are not safe just because they're a quarterback."
• Andy Holloway (43:38): "The statistical peak of running backs is younger than you think."
• Mike Wright (48:59): "Passing touchdowns go all over the place."
• Jason Moore (52:15): "Number one thing to remember from 2019, of course, is fix your league."
• Andy Holloway (52:30): "Identify the problem. Fix it."

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This summary captures the essence of the Fantasy Footballers' episode, providing a clear and structured overview of their discussions, key insights, and actionable advice for fantasy football enthusiasts.

Transcript

[Andy Holloway]

Oh, Foot Clan. So happy everybody's getting back into fantasy football. It is clearly the middle of fantasy football season. We are now in the middle.

[Mike Wright]

Very, very close.

[Andy Holloway]

It is. I mean, we're here. I feel like it's right around the corner. And you know what? We've got the Ultimate Draft Kit already for pre sale available. We're at the lowest price you can get it. And we have two weeks left of our monster prepackaged bundle giveaway. Not only is it the lowest price you can get and you know you're going to get it anyways, but you have a chance to win the first listener league entry if you get it before March 1st. So go to ultimate draft kit dot com. You won't be disappointed.

[Jason Moore]

Welcome to the Fantasy Footballers Podcast with your hosts, Andy Holloway, Jason Moore and Mike Wright.

[Mike Wright]

Welcome in.

[Jason Moore]

Welcome in. Welcome back. Back to business. Business time.

[Mike Wright]

The business of getting down all three of us. What?

[Andy Holloway]

To business?

[Mike Wright]

Yes. That's why they call it business time.

[Jason Moore]

It's business. Tuesday, February 18th. Andy Holloway, Jason Moore, Mike the fantasy hitman. Right, the fantasy footballers back with you all together. No. Jay Grizz. Get out of my face, Jay.

[Mike Wright]

Oh, careful.

[Andy Holloway]

Say that to his face.

[Mike Wright]

Yes.

[Jason Moore]

I would never do that. It's a very large bear we're talking about.

[Mike Wright]

He's actually a great listener.

[Jason Moore]

Like, I do appreciate that they say find the good part of.

[Mike Wright]

I've expressed many problems to Jay Grizz. Just one on one.

[Jason Moore]

He always listens.

[Mike Wright]

Always.

[Jason Moore]

That's the kind of social interaction you prefer? The silent kind.

[Mike Wright]

He's like my therapist now.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. You would ride in elevators all day with Jay Gris. Well, that might be dangerous. Excited to be back? Our family took a few days, got out of town. If you saw my Twitter feed, you saw how defeated I was at the very end of that trip. I wasn't actually defeated. I was just tired. I'm old and my kids are young and that disparity is really what held me up at the. And my son won a very large Sonic the Hedgehog stuffed animal.

[Mike Wright]

Where?

[Jason Moore]

At Knott's Berry Farm.

[Mike Wright]

What's the status of said giant life size Sonic?

[Jason Moore]

We left it in California.

[Andy Holloway]

Congrats on the win.

[Jason Moore]

We realized when we were packing up the vehicle.

[Mike Wright]

Does it even fit in the car? Do you have an extra seat?

[Jason Moore]

I thought about strapping him to the roof. That would have been a really entertaining ride.

[Mike Wright]

It wouldn't be entertaining for the person behind you who all of a sudden, Sonic flying at light speed at their windshield and explodes.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah.

[Andy Holloway]

Some kind of Promotion for the new movie. Why is Sonic.

[Mike Wright]

Oh, yeah. Hashtag not a sponsor.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. Yeah. Are you fishing for the Sonic the Hedgehog movie sponsorship?

[Mike Wright]

Letting the people out there know that we're not sneakily promoting Sonic the Hedgehog coming out to theaters near you?

[Jason Moore]

Are you gonna see it now that they fixed the way Sonic looks? Not a sponsor.

[Andy Holloway]

I will. I'll see it.

[Mike Wright]

The runs.

[Jason Moore]

Oh, it's got Jim Carrey in it.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, that's good.

[Mike Wright]

Reason the tomato score so far is okay.

[Jason Moore]

It sounds like we're doing an ad now.

[Mike Wright]

No, now we're just being dads.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, seriously. Not a sponsor, but it does come out. I don't know.

[Mike Wright]

It's actually. It's already out, fellas.

[Jason Moore]

Is it really?

[Andy Holloway]

Oh, for real?

[Mike Wright]

Yeah.

[Jason Moore]

Whoops.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, clearly not a sponsor.

[Jason Moore]

Really enjoyed it.

[Mike Wright]

I mean, already seen it.

[Jason Moore]

So back in town, I enjoyed listening to you guys talk about fantasy football on my drive. We had a good time. Jason, you're healthy again. Everybody's back in business. And we have. We've got a great show today. We have 10 things to remember from 2019. We do this show every year. We each pick out a few things that we think are worthwhile in terms of just surfacing, remembering, looking back over the course of the year.

[Andy Holloway]

And this is a very selfish show. Like, I don't. I was talking to Mike about this, as opposed to.

[Jason Moore]

I mean, most of the time, we're giving, we're giving, we're giving. We're so selfish.

[Andy Holloway]

Absolutely. I'm usually doing this show for the Foot Clan, but I don't do this show for the Foot Clan. I do this show. For me, this is genuinely 100%. I am trying to remind me of what, like, the things that I don't want to forget this year. And they are helpful. Every time that I declare these things, I use them in the season, but it's obviously still helpful because if I think I should remember them. Hopefully you think you should remember them, but I'm just. I'm letting everybody know, like, this is genuinely what I want to remember for going into 2020.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, it's gonna be great. It's gonna be a good show. You can subscribe to this podcast. It's so easy. It's free anywhere. You listen to podcasts. Click that subscribe button. We appreciate your reviews, your support. You can follow us on Twitter ffballers, find out exactly what's going on around these parts.

[Mike Wright]

And I highly encourage everyone to follow the Instagram feeds. Instagram.com fantasy footballers. You can also follow our personals.

[Jason Moore]

Ndyhollaway all ice cream, all the time.

[Mike Wright]

Ffhitman it's mostly shoes and video games. And Jason is JasonFFL. Our Twitter handles are the same, but.

[Jason Moore]

The big news, you actually posted on Instagram.

[Mike Wright]

Not just one.

[Andy Holloway]

Oh, you saw.

[Mike Wright]

Yes, I saw.

[Andy Holloway]

I'm back, baby.

[Mike Wright]

Jason is an IG mogul now who's.

[Jason Moore]

Just done it twice.

[Mike Wright]

He's got two posts.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah.

[Jason Moore]

What was great is in our Slack channel. Last night, Jason, like, brought up some things that he saw on Instagram. Like, they were breaking news, and these were things that had been around for, like, over a year. And he's like, what. What happened here? What happened on this thing?

[Andy Holloway]

You guys hear about this. I have not.

[Jason Moore]

And I'm like, mike. And I've seen this for years.

[Andy Holloway]

I have not been on Instagram, but I'm there now, so follow.

[Jason Moore]

Do you feel like you are. You can do some things for the gram now?

[Mike Wright]

Oh, you got to do it for the gram.

[Andy Holloway]

I'm gonna do things for the gram.

[Mike Wright]

All right.

[Andy Holloway]

I mean, you know, and we're not.

[Mike Wright]

Talking about, like, your grams, your grandmama.

[Jason Moore]

It's the gram or, like, Golden Grams.

[Andy Holloway]

I just think Candy Grahams.

[Mike Wright]

Oh.

[Andy Holloway]

And so I'm in. If this is a Candy Graham, I'm in.

[Jason Moore]

Let's do some Buy, Sell.

Buy or sell? Presented by Pristine Auction.

All right. Buy or sell. Will DK Metcalf hit 1000 receiving yards in year number two impressive rookie season? Metcalfe and Mr. Tyler Lockett accounted for 42% of the targets for the Seahawks last year. We saw Will Disley go down during part of the year. There are some rumors. I don't know if you know this. There's some rumors about Greg Olson and the Seattle Seahawks.

[Mike Wright]

Really?

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. Also the Redskins and one other team, which I will get to eventually here. But, you know, Metcalf and Lockett were really the only show in town.

[Andy Holloway]

It was Buffalo.

[Jason Moore]

Was it Buffalo?

[Andy Holloway]

Yes.

[Jason Moore]

Okay, so what do you think? 1,000 receiving yards on a run first offense. But obviously that is not a bar that is unattainable, especially for a player that I think is going to have a, you know, a pretty decent amount of big plays.

[Andy Holloway]

I. I'll just. I'll go first because this is an easy one for me. It's a clear buy. I definitely will project DK Metcalf for 1,000 yards next season. He was a.

[Jason Moore]

He had 900 last year.

[Andy Holloway]

Exactly. He was raw. I mean, we all knew this, and. And he impressed me in that he was more Complete as a wide receiver from a route tree than what I, you know, he didn't, he didn't show that in college. He came in and he did enough to where he got 900 yards as a rookie. And it wasn't until about week eight where he started getting up in the 90% of snaps. And so I think he takes a step forward as a. As an actual NFL player, as a wide receiver. And if he does that, he's got the body, the style.

[Jason Moore]

So what is. Does he go raw? Like raw to some medium rare to medium? Yeah, medium well.

[Andy Holloway]

I think he's going to jump from raw to medium next year. And also keep in mind that a good meat joke.

[Jason Moore]

I'm sorry, it's been a few episodes.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah. One of the.

[Jason Moore]

One of the 62 and a half yards a game.

[Andy Holloway]

And the reason why, you know you would sell this is the offense is the fact that this is not a pass first offense. This is a running and defense desiring team. And. And the thing is is Russ has come out this off season and I'm sure you guys have seen the quotes.

[Jason Moore]

I've seen his pictures.

[Mike Wright]

Yes. I've seen the photos of him getting glammed up.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, he looked.

[Mike Wright]

He's got a. He's certainly got a look.

[Jason Moore]

Is that his Kylo Ren? What was that?

[Mike Wright]

I'm not sure.

[Jason Moore]

Mike, you said it. That is exactly how I would look if I was trying.

[Mike Wright]

I'm so glad you hard.

[Jason Moore]

If I was like, I am. Like some people are just not. It's not possible to get to a certain level of cool. Like you just're too nerdy. Right. Like I'm just too.

[Mike Wright]

And it's not about being too cool. It's about going out of arranged where you are comfortable. I mean, it's good to get out of your comfort zone. But like when it comes to wearing things, especially publicly, you can look into a man's eyes and say, do you feel comfortable in what you're wearing right now and how you look? And he did not pass that test.

[Andy Holloway]

It was last year's fedora week when it was like something looked good in the.

[Mike Wright]

I could wear a fedora.

[Andy Holloway]

Not this one.

[Jason Moore]

A perfect. Like I would look how Russ looked if I tried to do that. Like I posted that picture of me myself in Knott's Berry Farm wearing a pair of Nikes and I got criticism because the Nikes were too tight. I was like, yeah, that's my.

[Mike Wright]

The Nikes were too tight.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, I tightened my Nikes too tight.

[Andy Holloway]

People saw this from A picture and went, you betcha.

[Jason Moore]

And I was like, you know, Mike's the kind of guy who wears his Nike's loose. I wear mine tight. I'm a little more tight.

[Mike Wright]

I don't even think about it. I just wear them comfortable.

[Jason Moore]

Well, now I feel cool. All right. But anyway, you were talking about Russell Wilson and not how he looks.

[Mike Wright]

I will jump in here with a point that I want to ask you here. Is Tyler Lockett going to hit 1,000 yards?

[Andy Holloway]

Yes.

[Mike Wright]

Okay, so that's an easy yes.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, I think both guys will hit a thousand yards this year. And this goes to what I was about to say about Russell Wilson. He's come out this, this off season and talked about how he dominates the two minute drill. He dominates the up tempo.

[Mike Wright]

Are you speaking. Russ is speaking about himself.

[Andy Holloway]

Russell Wilson is talking about Russell Wilson. He's not talking to the third person.

[Mike Wright]

Oh, man.

[Andy Holloway]

He's not talking to the third person. He's just saying, look, we. We really excel when we put the defense on, on the, on the defensive and we go, careful where you put on their heels.

[Mike Wright]

Maybe.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, yeah. And. And, you know, put that defense on.

[Jason Moore]

The offense is what you got to do.

[Mike Wright]

That's real dangerous.

[Andy Holloway]

So we're up tempo and we're, you know, getting them tired and that they always succeed in those roles. And he said he wishes. He came right out and said, I wish we were more of a team like that, like Kansas City, where we're, you know, just scoring as many points as we can. And while I don't think that's going to make Pete Carroll go, well, then let's do that. The squeaky wheel, you know, that, that matters. And I think they're going to throw the ball a little bit more than they did this year, and I think they'll have the weapons in DK Metcalf Season 2 to do it. So, yeah, I think. I think they both have. Thousand yard season.

[Jason Moore]

If you looked at his hair, the squeaky wheel already got the grease.

[Mike Wright]

Oh, it got a lot of grease.

[Andy Holloway]

Very, very oily.

[Jason Moore]

I will buy DK Metcalf with 1000 receiving yards in year two. I was very impressed with him. This is a team that knows how to use him. Russell Wilson is a, you know, play extender. And DK is a seemingly very hardworking compliment for Russell Wilson. I think by maybe, you know, not much above a thousand, But I think 1,000 is fair.

[Mike Wright]

And let me ask you guys this. How many times has Russell Wilson sustained 2,000 yard receivers?

[Andy Holloway]

I would guess zero, because it was Doug Baldwin and nobody else for the majority.

[Jason Moore]

I would guess zero based on the tone of your voice.

[Mike Wright]

The answer is zero. And it's not. Just. It's not. You can't just say, well, lack of talent.

[Jason Moore]

But he had Lockett and Baldwin.

[Mike Wright]

Lockett and Baldwin. He had Lockett and Jimmy Graham. Like, Jimmy Graham was okay for a little bit in Seattle. That was the closest they got where Baldwin was over 1100 and Jimmy Graham was at 923. I guess if you don't count this year. Like, Metcalf had the 900. And I honestly, I don't care what Russell Wilson's saying about how great he is in the two minute drill because Brian Schottenheimer doesn't care and Pete Carroll doesn't care. They want to win football games and they have their plan of how they win football games. So I just. Metcalf definitely has the talent and it could be real, real close that they both just hit over 1,000 yards.

[Jason Moore]

That's certainly close this year.

[Mike Wright]

It's certainly in the realm of possibilities. I'm just. It's. And I think I will buy it because of the ascending talent of DK Metcalf. Of. He is a big play guy, so he'll have these games where he hits 150 yards every once in a while.

[Jason Moore]

The odds are.

[Mike Wright]

But it's not an easy buy for me.

[Jason Moore]

The odds are in your favor slightly. Historically, Metcalf was one of 41 players all time to have at least 900 receiving yards as a rookie. We also saw A.J. brown and Terry McClure and do it in 20. 19 of the remaining 38 who did it, 20 of them did not hit a thousand in year two.

[Mike Wright]

That's good stuff.

[Jason Moore]

So, yeah, I think he's got a shot. So we've got. Bye bye. Sell.

[Mike Wright]

No, no, I'm buying. But I'm saying it's not the Backstreet Boys.

[Andy Holloway]

Oh, what? Oh, did I. Did I get that wrong?

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, Jason. Yeah. Yeah, you did. Jason, another shot.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah. This is an in sync.

[Mike Wright]

Holy freaking crap, dude. You cannot. You cannot confuse backstreet and in sync.

[Jason Moore]

Well, you.

[Andy Holloway]

I believe I sure can.

[Jason Moore]

No, you can.

[Mike Wright]

Okay.

[Andy Holloway]

Yes.

[Jason Moore]

It's.

[Andy Holloway]

It's.

[Mike Wright]

You can't.

[Andy Holloway]

It couldn't be done.

[Mike Wright]

I just did it.

[Andy Holloway]

You.

[Mike Wright]

But you should be embarrassed. And like that's a mic. Is shame upon your house forever.

[Jason Moore]

Mike is taking that very hard.

[Andy Holloway]

We're in sync about this now. Thank you.

[Mike Wright]

Thank you.

[Andy Holloway]

You're welcome.

[Jason Moore]

That was. Bye. Bye bye. Or sell from pristine auction. Pristineauction.com use the code BALLERS. When you sign up, you get a $10 credit.

[Andy Holloway]

That's what you got to do when you go to pristine auction. You just buy, buy, buy.

[Mike Wright]

Honestly, that's how I've treated them.

[Jason Moore]

That is how you've treated the website. All right, we're going to move on to our 10 things to remember from 2019. Before you do that, I want to thank today's sponsor. We're talking about the ever mouth watering Hellofresh, the number one meal kit in all of, not just the state, America, all of America. They make cooking at home fun, easy, affordable. What I like is the stress reduction factor of hellofresh. I don't want to think about buying every ingredient and figuring out that stuff and how long it takes. Everything that you get from Hellofresh, you can enjoy getting dinner on the table in like 30 minutes or 20 minutes. With some of their quicker options that they have something for everybody. You got low calorie options, vegetarian options, family friendly recipes. We've done it before where like, you know, we figure out the kids and then we just. The wife and I, we do the Hellofresh meal and they've got more five star recipes than any other meal kit. Absolutely love them. And you can go to hellofresh.com footballers10 and use the code Footballers10 for 10 free meals including free shipping. That's hellofresh.com Footballers10 and code Footballers10 for ten free meals including free shipping.

[Mike Wright]

Breaking news this important, this important PSA is brought to you by manscaped.com after more than.

[Jason Moore]

I'm listening.

[Mike Wright]

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[Andy Holloway]

Likewise.

[Mike Wright]

Smooth sailing, smooth riding.

[Jason Moore]

Better than Russell Wilson 3.0. Go on, we'll see.

[Mike Wright]

Get 20% off plus free shipping with the code footballers manscaped.com that's 20% off with free shipping at manscaped.com use code footballers and always your downstairs will thank you.

[Jason Moore]

Don't forget to remember these things.

[Andy Holloway]

You know, we get asked a lot. What's our favorite drop? I don't. We don't get asked a lot. Like what's your worst. What's the. The worst drop that might. That might cake. I'm saying not. Not. Not just musically. I'm not just music. I'm not throwing. I'm not throwing you. I'm saying the phrase don't forget to not remember. Like what?

[Jason Moore]

You probably wrote it.

[Andy Holloway]

I probably did because it sounds like something I would do.

[Mike Wright]

I 100% wrote it. I definitely wrote that. So I take great offense to it. But it's funny. It's CZ top, baby.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, that's spectacular.

[Andy Holloway]

Wait, I wanted to hear. I wanted to hear the phrase don't.

[Jason Moore]

Forget to remember these things.

[Mike Wright]

It's adjacent more ism at its best.

[Jason Moore]

It's on brand in every way, shape and form. That.

[Mike Wright]

So you saying that's the worst drop we have. You are looking in the mirror and saying you are the worst public speaker of all time.

[Andy Holloway]

Guilty as joke.

[Jason Moore]

I feel like you were that dropped. Is our show encapsulated?

[Andy Holloway]

That's not good.

[Jason Moore]

All right, 2019 has come and gone. We want to remember some things from last year and we're going to count them down. 10 things to remember. I'm going to kick this thing off.

Number 10.

All right, number 10. I'm going to just call this hype check. And I know this is. I'm going to give a shout out to Brooks because he was paying close attention to this this past year, surfaced it yesterday. It's tough, man, and it is really tough. And I don't even know what exactly you guys can help me with this. I don't know exactly what I want you to remember. Work through it, but let's work through this. And that is basically looking at the team hype that we end up. We end up in this situation every year. And what I think I want people to remember out there is that the NFL is full of very smart people, very smart defensive coordinators, head coaches that get no sleep, that spend all of their time watching film and diagnosing the next great thing in the NFL offensively. And last season we came in once again with the team hype train around certain teams. You could talk about Baker and Beckham and Landry and Freddy Kitchens and all the Hype that surrounded the Cleveland Browns. Yeah, I mean, this is an unstoppable offense. You could look at Matt Nagy and his historical success and Jordan Howard's out the door. And then, you know, Judge Giamatti was sending me screenshots of Roto World updates about David Montgomery from the draft and how he's the next cream hunt and the team is in love with him and everything he's going to represent. With the hype of the Chicago Bears offense, you could look at the team hype of teams like the Los Angeles Rams and the Kansas City Chiefs. Right. But when push came to shove, the Rams, it didn't work out if you were Brandon Cook's owner or a Robert woods owner, unless it was the second half of the season and you had Jared Goff fall off. In terms of fantasy production, consistency, you struggled with Gurley and his consistency in the workload. In production, you could look at the offense. Oh, you always have to trust Andy Reid. You always have to trust anybody surrounding Patrick Mahomes. Well, Mahomes had struggles with consistency, had the injury. Sammy Watkins was a disaster for your team. Travis Kelsey was. He did.

[Mike Wright]

Is just. It is unthinkable. And he had the one that he had. And it wasn't just. This was like a fluky thing. Okay. Sammy Watkins broke open for three deep touchdowns because there was a defensive laps like he was making guys miss, looked so good. He looked fantastic.

[Jason Moore]

It was against Jacksonville too, I believe.

[Mike Wright]

Yes, it was.

[Jason Moore]

And yet even. Even Kelsey, who was very good, like on the scale of tight ends, he was good. But what you drafted him to be, maybe he didn't live up to that expectation. Damian Williams was obviously not somebody that you could, you know, plug and play, although you thought that you could in your playoff challenges. He worked out just like Sammy Watkins and other players. But. But the team hype is something very difficult to diagnose. And I think it is our job to look at the situations around the NFL. That's the whole essence of fantasy. Right. That's the fun of fantasy, is trying to project who the next team will be. And last year we saw the Ravens and the 49ers become these, you know, leaders in points per game. And are these the two teams that are going to be overhyped heading into 2020? Those are the type of questions that you have to look at. But basically just recognizing the fact that there is going to be a difference between hype and delivering on the hype from year to year.

[Andy Holloway]

Okay, okay.

[Jason Moore]

So I think that that's one of those things that, you know, they would Remember the Titans. Let's remember the Browns. Let's remember that there are two sides.

[Mike Wright]

To that coin and that movie's not as emotionally fulfilling.

[Andy Holloway]

Remember the Browns.

[Jason Moore]

Remember the Browns.

[Mike Wright]

That one's just like sad sad. Not like a sad happy.

[Jason Moore]

Some bad Chipotle. All right, moving on.

Number nine.

[Andy Holloway]

All right, on this one, I'm titling. I'm titling my stuff this year without catchy phrases, and you'll see why on my next one. But this is called weight on interest.

[Mike Wright]

Wait, Jason. Jason Moore, you are the man who gave this world no risk it. No biscuit and biscuits lead to diabetes.

[Andy Holloway]

That's like, you were the man who.

[Mike Wright]

Brought that to us.

[Andy Holloway]

Absolutely.

[Mike Wright]

And now you're. And now you're taking that from us.

[Andy Holloway]

Look, these are important to me, Mike, and these are important.

[Jason Moore]

So wait, you're not naming them because.

[Andy Holloway]

Because I want to actually remember them. And I'll.

[Jason Moore]

I'm just trying to figure it out.

[Andy Holloway]

Well, I'll tell you on my next tip why I'm doing this, but proceed. Tip number nine is wait on injuries. Be patient. Last year, I. One of the things I wanted to remember was not buying the injury dip in the draft season. Well, that worked out tremendously. AJ Green was off my board. I saw him as another Doug Baldwin trap and he never even got back on the field. Oh, great. You got a one round savings. That worked out. But then what happened? As the season went on over and over and over, you saw these players who were injured, who came back and what happened as well, if they're playing, you've got to play them right. Remember David Johnson was coming back from injuries. Like, well, you got, look, if he's active, you've got to play him. How'd Chase Edmonds do that week? You know, Adam Thielen was coming back and you'd want to play him. Then it was like, no, he's. Well, no, he's not coming back. Then he finally comes back. He's barely out there. You had it over and over.

[Mike Wright]

James Connor did it.

[Andy Holloway]

Well, James Conner was the reason that early in the season I talked to Brooks, I said, hey, on this year's things to remember, I want to remember for next year that for my rankings on a weekly basis, for me as a player, when a guy is coming back off of an injury, if I can pivot, I'm going to pivot. Because there were too many examples this last year, whether it was DJ or Thielen or Devonta Freeman, James Conner, Austin Hooper, that week back from injury, they're not as involved and it really hurt you a lot. And likewise, you saw with Saquon and Alvin Camara, this kind of goes into it a little bit. When you have these serious injuries and people come back and they are playing, it takes time. Like, these are. These are actual human beings. I know they're kind of superhuman. But if you are injured, you're not as effective.

[Jason Moore]

And it's very difficult, though, to do it with anybody that you counted on to play. To put a guy on your bench and pivot away from these names, like you said Saquon or Connor or players that were supposed to be foundational. I just think it will be a very difficult mental challenge.

[Andy Holloway]

So the practical advice here is if you're talking about the Camaras and the Saquon specific to the high ankle sprain, I am going to next year during the high ankle sprain season for whoever gets it.

[Jason Moore]

Is that like flu season?

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah. I'm going to be much more cautious of their performance in the month following them returning because both guys were subpar. They were okay. They didn't destroy you. They didn't come back and were terrible. But they weren't what you drafted. They weren't superstars. So I'm going to keep that in mind next year. But everybody a tier below that, which James Conner, Adam Thiel and even dj they were a tier below. I am going to, you know, I mean, obviously if you don't have another starter, you can't. But I'm going to bench them. I'm going to wait and say, I want a week break because had you done this, that, that this last year, you would have scored more fantasy points. I know it's hard to do. That's why we make it a thing to remember. So that's number nine. I'm going to wait on injuries next year. There's just. There's no reason to say, let me have the injured guy. There's other uninsured guys.

[Jason Moore]

All right, number eight.

[Mike Wright]

Free agency is fun, but be careful. Like, we all love free agency. We're going to have shows that focus on free agency because that it's fun to do.

[Jason Moore]

I was already. I'm already there, Mike. I told I was looking at my Dynasty team and I thought about Robbie Anderson maybe landing on the Philadelphia Eagles, and I said, that's a good place. That's a good home. I need him there.

[Mike Wright]

It's what could be. And like, specifically, I want to focus on the wide receivers of. And like that I'm with you. I'm a Robert, I'm a Robbie Anderson truther. I think that he can succeed. Now he's in a little bit of a different situation because he, he's, he's trapped in the black hole. He's trapped by Adam Gaze. And we've seen what happens when players leave or Adam Gaze leaves them. They've had, they've had a great history of success recently. But here are the big ticket wide receivers from last year.

[Jason Moore]

Black hole bounce back.

[Andy Holloway]

Yes, more like the brown hole bounce back.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, I thought about it and I passed.

[Andy Holloway]

I'll take it on.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, it's yours.

[Mike Wright]

Tyrell Williams, he was the one who got paid by the Raiders. How'd that work out for fantasy Golden Tate. Now, he had his four game suspension. But even still, the guys who actually had some success, surprisingly, were the guys who headed off to the, to the Buffalo Bills and Cole Beasley and John Brown. But even then, it wasn't like this is a tremendous amount of success for players who got big paydays. I mean, John Brown was a three year, $27 million deal. These guys, it wasn't what you had hoped for. Meanwhile, the running backs, if a running back got a substantial contract, they at least had a little stints, at least of value, but the value went down. Lev Bell, we know what happened to him. Mark Ingram was kind of the outlier who turned into a monster all year long. But the point is simply, it's not that it's impossible for it to work out for a free agent. It's just we get really, really excited and only see the positives of the team change and not factoring in the human element. This guy is moving. He might be moving his entire family across the country.

[Jason Moore]

He's learning a new playbook.

[Mike Wright]

Learning a new playbook. He's learning a new. A whole entire new life. These are things that we don't think about at all. Imagine yourself moving from California. Okay. Now you're up in the northeast. Do you even know how to live in snow? I mean, like these, you're like, well, that's off the field. But like, these are all factors that we should be considering for these players. They're men, they're human beings.

[Jason Moore]

Got to get Internet set up at your new house.

[Mike Wright]

Oh, that's the. That you got to cancel your old Internet.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, that could be a real problem.

[Jason Moore]

Find a new primary care physician.

[Mike Wright]

Oh, give. Give up on that. I just. Doctorless. Yeah, I'm not even gonna worry about that.

[Jason Moore]

No, it is part of the fun of the off season.

[Mike Wright]

Yes.

[Jason Moore]

And we.

[Mike Wright]

I don't want to rain completely on it.

[Jason Moore]

We will do it. But we've brought that up before. This is not a first time event. We've brought up the fact that it is very difficult historically to be a free agent wide receiver and land in a new location after you've had success more so and end up, you know, projecting that forward. And we even saw, you know, even in the middle of the year, Emmanuel Sanders made the movement. It's a very difficult thing to get consistency out of a new location because you are kind of finding your way through.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, absolutely.

[Jason Moore]

Number seven.

All right. This one's very interesting because it is something I want to remember and it is something that I am learning. Has changed, I believe, over the past 10 years of fantasy football. There was a mindset that I had and I'm titling this. Talent can win out. Don't let defeat defeat you. Okay? I'll tell you what I mean. But here's I always had a lot of success in fantasy, leaning on what I perceived to be always the best offense, always the best team, draft players on winning teams, at least let that be the majority of your roster. More reliability, consistency. But I think what we saw this last year in a lot of cases was talent and opportunity does not require a team to have a winning record. There were a lot of players and every, you know, every name I'm about to list five wins or fewer for their team. Devonte Parker, Joe Mixon, Austin Eckler, Terry McLaurin, Kenny Golladay, Darius Slayton, Christian McCaffrey, Kenyon Drake. If you discount them in the modern NFL, if you discount players and their situations because they're on losing teams, I think you end up doing it at your own peril anymore because you can't let the sludge that is that team's overall, you know, success dissuade you from taking a chance on them. It was an easy thing to do with a lot of these rookie wide receivers that did have success because they were going to bad teams and bad situations. But in this modern NFL, in the, in the prevent defense era, players on losing teams are thriving week in and week out, even with bad quarterbacks. Right. You talk about Kenny Galladay being a fairly consistent player with going through multiple quarterbacks on a bad team, even pathetic offenses, teams with no hope, are putting forth players week in and week out that have provided some success and consistency. The success McLaurin had with a couple of different quarterbacks. Kenyon Drake, you know, the Cardinals were not A very good team. He comes in and instantly has success against formidable defenses. And the fact that you end up with a quarter, a quarter and a half of garbage time. Look, we're going to come in and hit that garbage time. Oh, the garbage man can drop. And Jason's going to go on rants about how he saw how a game was supposed to go, but then the last two drives of the game ruins his projection. But that's today's NFL. That's just going to happen. And if talent is there, it only takes one play. That's the thing we saw with Galladay consistently, even on Thanksgiving Day. Right. One play with David Blau. The Bears basically shut Detroit down the entirety of the game, but it was one play to make a player's week. Devonte Parker did it over and over again with the volume. Even Joe Mixon went absolutely mad over the back half of the year.

[Mike Wright]

Yes, he did.

[Jason Moore]

On a team that had no offensive line, had no chance of victory. So it's something I want to be more mindful of because I think part of the way that the NFL favors offenses now changes maybe a little bit of that dependency on the winning team.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, I think that that applies primarily to pass catchers and including running backs. Right. Like Christian McCaffrey obviously was phenomenal. A lot of that was in the past catching area. If you look at, you know, the top 12 running backs this last year, the only two that were really on bad teams were incredible pass catching running backs. Or at least the volume was Doug.

[Mike Wright]

And McCaffrey, Neckler, McCaffrey and Eckler.

[Andy Holloway]

And I would, I would throw. Even though he's, he's not the most talented receiving back.

[Mike Wright]

Oh, Fournette, Leonard Fournette.

[Jason Moore]

Well, Fournette was one of them. But then like Chubb was good on a six win team. Joe Mixon over the back half. I think what my problem is, is buying in. My problem is saying like, okay, yes, they can have a good game, they could have another good game. But you keep waiting for the shoe to drop on the bad team. And at least for some of these players, you didn't have that shoe drop. Yeah, but I think you were right. I mean, a lot of those names that I read off were the past catching options and the running backs that are out there on third down for two quarters of prevent makes, you know, a lot of sense.

So we'll move on number six.

[Andy Holloway]

All right, here's the important title.

[Mike Wright]

Oh, yes, I've been waiting.

[Andy Holloway]

Don't overreact to week one.

[Mike Wright]

Witty. Now I'm not exactly sure what you mean.

[Andy Holloway]

Okay, yeah, I understand. What I'm saying by what I mean is, I mean that I don't want you okay so far or me to make too big of a deal over the first week of the season. Is that a better way to say that? Don't overreact to week one. And the reason why I am titling it so obviously is because this would have been such great advice to remember last year.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, actually it was.

[Andy Holloway]

And it was one of the things to remember last year. It was the end is the beginning is the end. Yeah, that was the title.

[Mike Wright]

Oh, that was the problem. We had a title problem.

[Andy Holloway]

What does that mean?

[Jason Moore]

I did explain it well, but I didn't just say it.

[Andy Holloway]

I don't listen, I'm off in La la land here.

[Jason Moore]

Fair enough.

[Andy Holloway]

I'm a, I'm a look at the headlines type of gu. That's a good bit. So, yeah, look, don't it happened last year enough that you brought it up as something to remember, but we all fell victim this year to Sammy Watkins, to tj.

[Jason Moore]

Not all of us.

[Andy Holloway]

Well, no, but yes. Even you were like, I guess I've got to admit, you're right. But you weren't wrong. And TJ Hawkinson comes out and dominates in week one. You know, you had John Ross and Philip Dorsett look like, oh, the real deal on these speedsters is here. And you know, on the flip side, you have guys like Mike Evans, who was the wide receiver 79 in week one while Chris Godwin is, oh, no, Mike Evans is dead. Or the running back three on the year in Aaron Jones, who was the running back 52 week one. It's like, oh, see, this was in. The issue becomes when what you hoped happen does happen. If you were anti Aaron Jones or you were pro Sammy Watkins or, you know, it confirms the bias already.

[Jason Moore]

Correct.

[Andy Holloway]

And you overreact so much. And what's funny is if you look at the season, this happens every single week of the year. Every week. You know, it's like, oh, Will Fuller this week was the wide receiver one and was unbelievable. But you don't, you don't take it as truth when it's week eight because there's a larger set of data and you know, it hasn't happened every week. But when week one hits, there's this. We've talked so long about football and now we get to see what the truth is. That's how we feel. And I want to make sure that coming into this next year, I don't recommend people go and buy and, you know, and it's one of those things.

[Jason Moore]

Hit on it. I think you hit on the actual psychological issue there, the confirmation. Because you want to declare victory.

[Mike Wright]

Yes. Week one victory laps are the best.

[Jason Moore]

Do you remember when we were extremely anti Matt Forte? I think it was a Jets year.

[Mike Wright]

Yes.

[Jason Moore]

And he came out for the first week or two of the season and he lit it up and like we lost, but we, we didn't lose, but we totally, completely lost, like over the course of the year. Wasn't the same thing as what you got in those first two weeks. But it is very, very difficult not to kind of, you know, put the check mark down that you did get it right or you did get it wrong. It's hard to breathe.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah. So next year for all of us, not just the three of us, but everyone playing, make sure you don't overreact to that. Week one. Don't sell the guys that sucked. Don't buy the guys that blew up. Breathe. Give yourself a little bit of time.

[Jason Moore]

I heard the end is the beginning is the end. That's what I heard. I heard a U2 song.

[Andy Holloway]

Exactly.

[Jason Moore]

All right.

Number five.

[Mike Wright]

Funny that yours was a like a reminder refresher tip because mine is as well. And I just. People need to hear this over and over and over. Early quarterbacks aren't safe just because they were great last year and it's a quarterback. Oh, they're going to be great. Early quarterbacks are not safe. Only one quarterback drafted in the top five finished in the top five. That was Deshaun Watson. He was drafted as the second quarterback, finished as the QB4. The top three quarterbacks off the board in the draft, they finished an average of 4 and a half spots below their draft spot. Only Russell will. Shockingly, of course, we've got to bring this up, but Russell Wilson was the only guy in the top 10 who actually provided a positive return on what you paid for him.

[Andy Holloway]

But not really. I mean, that's from consistency.

[Mike Wright]

That's a whole different discussion. But the point is people get really excited about these early round quarterbacks and things happen. Like, we get things wrong. You get things wrong. Everyone in the draft.

[Jason Moore]

How dare you.

[Mike Wright]

I'm just saying in the draft, people get things wrong. And when you are spending that third or fourth round pick because, Jason, I hear you talking like, yeah, if Lamar Jackson's there in the fourth. So I'm reminding you, early round quarterback, they're not safe just because they're a quarterback. And when you are wrong on a quarterback. It's far more devastating to take one in the third round and be wrong. You're going to be wrong about wide receivers or running backs in the third round, but they're so much more valuable when they hit late round quarterback was again a great year for this strategy with Dak and Lamar and it's going.

[Jason Moore]

On every year running continues and it.

[Mike Wright]

Will continue to go. Now Lamar Jackson, of course could be the number one guy again next year. But what is the like what is really the benefit when you can get a guy later and if and if you are wrong, like when you were wrong on Patrick Mahomes that that really, really hurt your draft?

[Jason Moore]

Well, and I think you hit on the argument that is made is at least well, if I choose to spend on one, at least I know it's safe.

[Mike Wright]

Exactly. That is not safe.

[Jason Moore]

Right. I like that.

Number four.

All right. No country for old running back. Oh mamas, don't let your boys grow up to be running backs. No position ages quite like the running back position. And we can call this our maybe the one with a little bit more of a dynasty focus a keeper focus a keeper spin. We've talked about it before. I thought it'd be interesting to look back at the top 30 overall picks in 2018 and look at the wide receivers in that group. Out of that top 30. Look at the running backs. There's two 2018 was not long ago wide receivers drafted in the top 30 A.B. hopkins, Beckham, Julio Michael Thomas, Keenan Allen, Devonte Adams, A.J. green, Mike Evans, Stefan Diggs, Tyreek and Hilton. One of those guys might have aged out, right? That might have been that. If I want to concede AJ Green's career as an and who knows But I can give AJ Green if you look at the running backs in that stretch. Gurley Bell, DJ Zeke Camara, Barkley, Gordon, Fournette, Hunt, McCaffrey, Cook, Howard, Freeman, Mixon, McKinnon, McCoy.

[Mike Wright]

Oh, McKinnon.

[Jason Moore]

Now, depending on how you want to read their decline, right. I count seven or eight running backs in that top 30 stretch that might have aged out of the position.

[Andy Holloway]

What do you mean? LaShawn McCoy is a super bowl champion this year.

[Jason Moore]

You make a strong point. Got the funny because I walked into one of our bathrooms here and there was a shady painting up on that and it's in the bathroom for a reason now. But the reality this is not saying now don't, don't hear me wrong. Running backs, the most important position I'm always going to in a redraft league. I'm going to be hitting those running backs. I'm going to hit them hard. I'm going to. That's who I prefer to draft at the top of the draft. But you have to be mindful of this. In dynasty leagues you don't put running backs on autopilot. And in redraft, you do need to be mindful of the fact that, you know, look at this past year, right? Devonta Freeman, Lev Bell, Todd Gurley, David Johnson, those are four upper echelon picks that hit a wall in some way, shape or form. Whether it was workload impacted because of the wall, whether it was performance on the field, it's still the most important position. But you cannot autopilot running backs, especially in dynasty keeper situations where you think you've got a guy forever. That doesn't mean there aren't running backs that have long, sustainable careers, but they do not prove that all of them will there. For every Frank Gore, Adrian Peterson, there are players with very limited shelf lives.

[Andy Holloway]

Well, if you, if you just look at, you know, the statistical peak of running backs, it's younger than you think. The statistical peak of running backs is 24 years old. It's not like, you know, that's like from that point on they start going down. And so it's like if we talk about this wide receiver who's 25, that's a young buck, he has not hit his prime yet, he has not started.

[Jason Moore]

It's like a 38, 39 year old podcaster. I mean, just right in the exact. In the peak.

[Andy Holloway]

So yeah, I mean, running backs, young guys come in, they do it quicker and they fall off much, much younger. We've always Talked about the 30 year old age cliff and that's, you know, a little bit of a misnomer. But when you talk about just declining value, it's well before then.

[Jason Moore]

And the truth is you'd love to have the autopilot running back. You'd love to have the guy that you know you can put in there because they're hard to find. They're such an anchor for your team in a dynasty or a keeper league. But it's just very difficult to find them.

[Andy Holloway]

Wait for it.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, the button doesn't work.

[Andy Holloway]

Oh no.

[Jason Moore]

I think number three is. That's four now three won't play.

[Andy Holloway]

All right, I got you number three. So a lot of people will say, like, who does our voiceover? And now you know.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, it's you.

[Andy Holloway]

Now you know it's me.

[Jason Moore]

Hold on, let me hit it. Again.

[Andy Holloway]

Okay, Number three.

[Jason Moore]

There we go.

[Andy Holloway]

Number three.

[Jason Moore]

Oh, I hit it twice. All right.

[Andy Holloway]

All right. So mine, this, my last thing to remember here is really, it's for myself. I want to take more risks with rookies. And the reason that this is like something I want to remember is because I went back. You know, we always, we look at what we get right, we look at what we get wrong, we look at how close we were right, how far off we were when we were wrong. And so when I'm getting ready for the ultimate draft kit 2020 and I'm putting in everybody's statistics from 2019 so that, you know, the software that we've developed that we use to stat people out when we put a player's name in, it shows what they did last year and breaks down a bunch of stuff. So, you know, I was putting in this last year and it gave us this small period of time where we could check how we projected everybody with where their actual finishes were statistically, every single station. And I was very, very impressed with one Andrew Holloway's rookie statistics. And I noticed across the board it wasn't a scouting thing where I was wrong on players that I liked, but when I liked a guy and Andy liked the guy rookie specifically coming in, Andy would stat them out much more aggressively than I allowed myself to do in the pre draft rankings. And he hit some of these guys so stinking close. And I don't, I don't know, Mike.

[Mike Wright]

Where you were because this was right on the nose. Right on the nose.

[Andy Holloway]

Yes. Perfect.

[Mike Wright]

Don't check it so well.

[Andy Holloway]

I don't, I don't know. You weren't there that day when we were going back and forth through all of these different rookies. And so I just noticed that for myself I was too timid to believe. And while I do think it's important to remember rookie wide receivers, even the great ones, they break out more the second half than the first half. That was one of the things to remember last year. Look at A.J. brown.

[Jason Moore]

Awesome.

[Andy Holloway]

But that was.

[Mike Wright]

Debo broke out.

[Andy Holloway]

Awesome. But those were second half. But in general, across the board, I want to be more aggressive with stating of rookies. And if you combine that with the fact that this is known to be a very, very good rookie draft class, I want to take more risks. I want to be. I think that 2020 is going to be a year to be a little bit risky when it comes to grabbing a rookie, starting them early, you know, how long did you wait before you believed in Terry McLaurin? You know, how long before you know Marquis Brown, were you willing to put him in your lineup? And so I want to like looking back at my process, my starts, my sits, my stats. I think I want to take more risks with the 2020 rookies.

[Mike Wright]

So are you changing how you draft them?

[Andy Holloway]

I am going to change how I draft them a little bit, yeah. Because I'm going to adjust their season rankings accordingly. I think it'll be more accurate. That'll be a little bit more bullish. And the thing is, is maybe, you know, Debo, you were. You couldn't really use him in the beginning of the season, so there's a swing and a miss. But if you do the same thing with Terry McClure and you're going to hit on some of these GU and running backs, we all know this rookie running backs are phenomenal. Draft rookie running backs. Draft them left, right, and center. And so I think it'll affect all of the positions. I mean, look at Kyler Murray. He came out this year. He finished as the quarterback eight, despite having a lousy second, you know, or I would say last quarter of the year. So I want to be more bullish and more risky, less afraid with rookies.

[Jason Moore]

Gonna take a risk. And I'm gonna try to push this button again.

Number two.

Yeah.

[Mike Wright]

We're back, baby.

[Jason Moore]

Sounded just like Jason.

[Andy Holloway]

That was me.

[Jason Moore]

Incredible.

[Mike Wright]

This one is entitled Just like my Weight, titties fluctuate. And look.

[Andy Holloway]

Wait, what? Touchdowns.

[Mike Wright]

Touchdowns, yeah. Those also fluctuate. Yes. I'm not just talking about players because we already know that touchdowns are not a sticky stat from year to year. But I want to talk about when you're trying to break down the trend of, like, what's going on with the wide receivers. I think it's. It's a difficult thing to look at. The top 10 wide receivers, what advantage were they giving you? Because last year we had 797 passing touchdowns, and that was actually. That was down from 847 the previous year. So look at the top 10 wide receivers. What happened? The top 10 wide receivers last year had 85 total touchdowns compared to 98 the year before. I mean, you can look at like, Antonio Brown was gone. He's a touchdown monster. Just. Those are variables that I'm not factoring in right now. But I'm saying that passing touchdowns, they go all over the place from 797 to 847, 741, 786. And then back in 2015, you had 842. Like, it's not a situation where you where I feel confident enough looking at the trend of what is happening with the top 10 wide receivers and saying they're losing value. So that's what the overarching point of this is, that the touchdowns will fluctuate. I'm not looking at the wide receivers in the second round and saying, nope, I'm going to pass on these higher end wide receivers because they're not giving me the advantage that they did. I'm going to take another risk on a second round running back even though he's tier three or whatever in my rankings. So that's a process that I will be looking at. Where are wide receivers ranking in ADP and don't. And not being afraid that the decline of the high end wide receiver is.

[Andy Holloway]

Actually happening within the position. One of the nice things you can do or look at is take away touchdown production from all wide receivers just as like an exercise and running backs as well. Say, okay, if you got no points for touchdowns and you could do this in the ultimate draft kit just for a second zero out, say touchdowns worth zero points and then just look at, okay, so who's the volume plays, who are the players that we expect to be doing the most on the field? Because touchdowns while, you know, you could say, okay, well you know, devonte Adams has a history of it or obviously Derek Henry looks like a real touchdown machine. They really, really are not sticky. So you can look at the volume apart from touchdowns and maybe help, you know, have that.

[Jason Moore]

Help inform.

[Andy Holloway]

Yes, that was the word.

[Jason Moore]

Yes, thank you. No worries. Let's get to number one.

Number one.

All right. It's familiar, but it's important. And that is of course, tell 50 friends about the Fantasy Footballers podcast.

[Mike Wright]

If you stop at 40, you are. I'm ashamed of you.

[Andy Holloway]

This year's challenge is to beat Foot.

[Mike Wright]

Clan members and we recommend 50. And you want to do the bare minimum. All right.

[Jason Moore]

That's not the real number one tip, although it obviously is the best one.

[Mike Wright]

I liked it better.

[Jason Moore]

If you want to do that as well, it's fine. Number one thing to remember from 2019, of course is fix your league.

[Mike Wright]

Fix it.

[Jason Moore]

Fix it right now, not later.

[Andy Holloway]

Step one is identify the problem.

[Jason Moore]

Yes.

[Mike Wright]

Step two.

[Andy Holloway]

Step two, fix it.

[Jason Moore]

Do you have a week 17 championship?

[Andy Holloway]

I hope not.

[Jason Moore]

I got. I've heard from a few people they felt like they were personally shamed on this podcast because we would disparage or make fun of the Week 17 title game players. They wanted us to understand that they were, they were in that bed. That bed had been made for them. And the truth is, while I say I'm sorry to the 6%, I also remind you we gave you a week's worth of content that was not as fun to do because we're not in any week 17 championship games because we fixed it in February.

[Andy Holloway]

And the reason why every year we bring this up, because this is the time of year to fix. When you get right up next to your draft too late, everyone is already their expectations of what they're drafting, what they're doing, how the league is formatted, that's when they are the least willing to change, the least willing to think about. I don't want to think about changing to a fab system for waivers. I don't want to think about, you know, changing to a Week 16 championship or moving from standard to half point per reception. I'm looking at my actual draft and preparing. Now is the time to float these ideas. And those would be our three biggest ideas, right? Get rid of week 17, move to Fab being half point PPR. Full PPR is great as well. We prefer half.

[Jason Moore]

Or you want to make that big keeper change. You want to make that transition. You want to be spending the majority of the months to come, free agency, the draft, the off season camp, thinking about players, thinking about your draft, not thinking about structural changes to your league. Which is why it is a good thing to remember right now.

[Andy Holloway]

Also, for the first time that we can really start to say this. All of the week 17ers out there, we love you. We do. It's not you, it's your league. But soon the NFL will be extending the season potentially, I believe in 2021 to a 17 game season. That is the perfect opportunity as well. I mean, that's a little too far away. Fix it now. But you know, just say we don't need to move it to the last.

[Mike Wright]

Week, second to last week, second to last.

[Jason Moore]

You're just trying to give them an angle.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, there you go. Exactly.

[Jason Moore]

Which is sometimes all it takes. Sometimes you need something to go to your league with because it is so much easier to say, let's do what we've always done. Nobody's ever had a problem with it. As opposed to let's fix something that's super broken and it's antiquated and doesn't involve any actual skill. Because week 17 championship games are annoying.

[Mike Wright]

I like that. Jason's preparing for 2021 now. Get a hold of your life.

[Jason Moore]

That's right. That's right. Any other ones we want to mention there, this would be commissioner, you know, shape up time. Maybe it means transitions at the commissioner position of your league. Maybe it means switching platforms.

[Mike Wright]

I mean, look, we've all played the game of summer's coming up. I've got four months to get this beach bod ready and all of a sudden you're looking down going, I've got three months. Oh, yeah, three weeks to get this beach pod ready and then it's too late.

[Jason Moore]

You just don't want to be.

[Mike Wright]

Don't regret. Don't have a beach, but don't have a flabby league. Don't have a dad bod league.

[Jason Moore]

Oh, man.

[Mike Wright]

Oh, this league's got ABs.

[Jason Moore]

That's what I were saying. Give. Give your league a chance at abs.

[Mike Wright]

Yes.

[Jason Moore]

Just a chance. All right.

[Mike Wright]

At least a four pack.

[Jason Moore]

Just a. Yeah, just a little Peakski. A little two packed. All right, we're gonna do a couple mailbag questions before we close it out.

Mailbag, Mailbag.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah.

[Mike Wright]

All right.

[Jason Moore]

If you have a question for the show, we love helping you out. Head to the website, the fantasy footballers.com. click the submit a question button or you can dial our voicemail hotline. That's 302464, TFF B. Let's go. Let's go with this one from Chris. Chris has a Dynasty startup draft question. He says, I have the number one pick in a startup Dynasty draft and I'm thinking Mahomes over Lamar or should I be taking CMC or Barkley? What do you guys think?

[Mike Wright]

Well, no, no, no, no, no. You can't ask the question yet because you need the other details of it. It's a half point ppr.

[Jason Moore]

Two quarterback. Sorry, sorry. Two quarterback.

[Mike Wright]

Because that changes everything.

[Jason Moore]

If you're and they draft soon.

[Mike Wright]

This, if this is a single quarterback league, there is 0% chance that I am entertaining taking Lamar or Mahomes with my number one pick. It's a two quarterback league. Honestly, I would prefer not to. I. Because I think there's still a ton of value that you can get from veteran quarterbacks and then just kind of keep that cycle going. I get that having Lamar or Mahomes feels real, real exciting that you have them now for Dynasty, you have them forever. So I'll cede it to Jason because I think his answer is different than mine.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, it is. If I've got the number one pick in a two quarterback league, where you're starting to streaming off the waivers is never going to be an option in a Dynasty league, I would take Mahomes with the 101. And I would take him over Lamar because I think longevity of career, we've looked at this in the past. Running quarterbacks, they look, they can have a great stretch. This isn't saying, oh, Lamar is done and he's going to be injured next year.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, we've seen Cam Newton do it for, for many, many, many years.

[Andy Holloway]

Cam Newton's 30 and it's starting to look like end. You know, whereas all these pocket passing quarterbacks, even the mobile ones, you know.

[Mike Wright]

Aaron Rodgers, he's really more of a Rogers where he, he can run when he needs to run, but those guys.

[Andy Holloway]

Can play into their late 30s. And so Mahomes is, is the guy that I would take and I, and I believe that, you know, you, I don't think Lamar Jackson's leading the NFL in passing touchdowns next year like he did this year. So if I had to pick a quarterback. And so let me phrase it this.

[Mike Wright]

Way, because you're taking Mahomes with your number one pick. So you are okay with the fact that your starting running back, your RB1 or your RB2 is now pick 24?

[Andy Holloway]

No, usually it's later than that for me, Mike. I mean when I do a dynasty startup draft, I'm, I'm focused on wide receivers usually. So I'm used to going, so your.

[Mike Wright]

Wide receiver one is pick 24?

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, I think in a, in a two quarterback league.

[Mike Wright]

All right.

[Andy Holloway]

You know, you could say, oh well, you know, your quarterback is worse. My wide receiver's worse.

[Jason Moore]

Ryan on Facebook says what. What would you be willing to sell CMC for in a dynasty league? We did just go over 10 things to remember. One of the ones I brought up was running backs aging out at some point in time in a dynasty format.

[Mike Wright]

Depends. If I'm playing to win right now, you can't, you probably can't offer me enough if I'm playing, if I'm looking at my team as a championship team this year. Doesn't matter.

[Jason Moore]

I'm not selling him Joe Mixon and Mike Evans.

[Mike Wright]

No. Okay, well, Evans is. Evans is tough to say no to. But the point is you have to look at your situation first.

[Jason Moore]

And Michael. Yes.

[Mike Wright]

For the. Do I get. I get him in the XFL though. Yes. Excellent. So think of a realistic price of you are you're a rebuild team or you're just, you're like a fringe playoff team. What would it take, Jason, to get you to sell Christian McCaffrey the one? Well, it's, it's basically how many first.

[Jason Moore]

Round picks a replacement player and like several firsts.

[Andy Holloway]

Right. I mean, if you've got a couple of first round picks and a great wide receiver, that would be at least tempting. Especially. Especially if you are in more of a rebuild mode where you can capitalize on the extreme value. I don't think there's a lot of teams out there that feel like they're in a rebuild mode who have Christian McCaffrey because he was so good this year, you were in it, you could fill a lot of holes with him. So I don't think that now is the time to sell. He's 23 years old right now. I think, you know, that's if you let another year or two go and sell him high. Andy, you have been so stinking good at selling running backs at the right time, at their peak, but right before the collapse. So when would you sell?

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, I have no, I have no inkling indication or desire to sell Christian McCaffrey right now. You do try to find, you know, there were reasons to move on from Gurley when I moved on. Well, I don't see reasons to move on from McCaffrey at 23 years old with the record breaking numbers and the foundational aspect he is to a team, to see a season like that on a losing team, knowing that this could be a top five.

[Andy Holloway]

Well, and think about. Because if he does want to move on from Chris McCaffrey, your haul that you got for Gurley, you got Dalvin Cook, I think a couple of first rounders, another player, I forget what it was, but you got like a monstrous haul.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah.

[Andy Holloway]

For Todd Gurley. So you're not just getting like, I think it's, well, more than a Mixon and Mike Evans.

[Jason Moore]

It doesn't hurt you if you're in a position where you don't think you'll be competitive over the next year or two to float it to your league and say I'm thinking about this because the teams that are on the precipice, they may come with some kind of offer you don't expect. You never need to. Having the stance, the posture of never on a player is just not one that I subscribe to.

[Mike Wright]

I'm going to give you Josh Jacobs and the 105 for Christian McCaffrey. Jason, will you accept that deal?

[Jason Moore]

No.

[Andy Holloway]

Okay.

[Jason Moore]

I'm a no. No.

[Mike Wright]

I'm going to give you Josh Jacobs the 105 and a second round pick.

[Andy Holloway]

No, it would be not close if you give me Josh Jacobs and the 101 and the 105.

[Mike Wright]

Okay.

[Andy Holloway]

Now I'm like, okay, well, I'm interested.

[Jason Moore]

That's a good offer. That's a good offer. All right, that'll do it for the Fantasy Footballers today. Thank you for all of your support subscribing reviewing the show. Check out ultimate draftkit.com to pre order at the very best price. Don't forget.

[Mike Wright]

Goodbye.

[Jason Moore]

Thank you for listening to another episode of the Fantasy Footballers Podcast. Join our fantasy football community on jointhefoot.com and follow us on Twitter at the FF Ballers.

[Andy Holloway]

And Foot Clan. Don't forget that the actual trade that Andy made was he traded Todd Gurley and Equin Mania St. Brown. I don't even remember Equanimous St. Brown for Dalvin Cook, Robbie Anderson, the 103, the 203 and the 211.

[Jason Moore]

That's pretty good.