10 Tips & Tricks to Win Your Fantasy Football League

Summary

Fantasy Footballers Podcast Episode Summary: "10 Tips & Tricks to Win Your Fantasy Football League"

Release Date: August 15, 2019

In this engaging episode of the Fantasy Footballers Podcast, hosts Andy Holloway, Jason Moore, and Mike "The Fantasy Hitman" Wright delve deep into strategic advice aimed at helping fantasy football enthusiasts dominate their leagues. Skipping the usual advertisements and intros, the trio presents 10 actionable tips and tricks, enriched with insightful discussions, data-driven analysis, and memorable quotes to elevate your fantasy game.

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Tip 10: Running Back Depth Looks Stupid Until It Doesn't

Timestamp: [20:43]

Andy Holloway kicks off the countdown with the importance of building a strong running back (RB) depth. Highlighting the unpredictable nature of injuries in the NFL, Andy emphasizes that initial RB depth may seem excessive but becomes invaluable as the season progresses.

Andy Holloway [02:36]: "Running back depth looks stupid until it doesn't."

Key Points:

• Injury Statistics: Over a four-year span, 44% of first-round RBs were sidelined due to injuries, missing a total of 32 games.
• Strategic Depth: Investing in multiple RBs provides flexibility and safeguards against unforeseen player downtimes.
• Waiver Wire Value: Deep RB benches allow managers to capitalize on waiver wire pickups, which are often scarce.

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Tip 9: Avoid Rookie Tight Ends

Timestamp: [25:09]

Jason Moore and Andy Holloway caution against drafting rookie tight ends (TEs), citing historical underperformance. They present data showing that only a handful of rookie TEs have made significant impacts in fantasy leagues over the past seven years.

Andy Holloway [26:16]: "Don't draft rookie tight ends."

Key Points:

• Historical Performance: Only Dwayne Allen and Jordan Reed among rookie TEs have demonstrated noteworthy fantasy potential.
• Risk vs. Reward: The majority of rookie TEs fail to deliver, making them high-risk selections with limited upside.
• Alternative Strategies: Instead of investing early picks in rookie TEs, focus on seasoned players with proven track records.

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Tip 8: Understand Opportunity Cost

Timestamp: [30:07]

Mike Wright introduces the concept of opportunity cost, urging managers to consider not just the player they're drafting but also what they're potentially missing out on by making that selection.

Mike Wright [45:00]: "If I take Zeke here, I don't have any more first round picks, so I can't take DeAndre Adams here if I wanted to."

Key Points:

• Decision-Making: Every draft pick affects future selections; choosing one player means potentially passing on another valuable asset.
• Strategic Drafting: Managers should weigh the immediate benefits against long-term team composition.
• Probability and Game Theory: Emphasize drafting based on probabilistic outcomes rather than personal biases.

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Tip 7: Your Team Isn't as Good as You Think

Timestamp: [34:18]

DD Westbrook and Mike Wright address the common pitfall of owner bias, where managers overvalue their drafted teams based on past performances or personal attachments.

DD Westbrook [34:19]: "You don't get to count last year's points towards this season if you own Philip Lindsay."

Key Points:

• Objective Evaluation: Assess each season independently without relying on previous year's statistics.
• Avoiding Complacency: Stay vigilant and make necessary adjustments based on current performance trends.
• Trade Offers: Be open to trades that objectively improve your team, even if they involve letting go of previously beloved players.

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Tip 6: Avoid Risky Picks Early in the Draft

Timestamp: [38:59]

Andy Holloway advocates for minimizing early-round risks by selecting players with consistent performance and lower injury probabilities.

Andy Holloway [40:15]: "Avoid risk. There's no reason there's no reason to go with the risky player... everyone in first round is good."

Key Points:

• First-Round Stability: Focus on reliable players who have demonstrated consistent performance.
• Injury Concerns: Steer clear of players with a history of frequent injuries or those changing teams/schemes.
• Long-Term Planning: Secure foundational players in the early rounds to build a stable team base.

---

Tip 5: Embrace Game Theory and Opportunity Cost

Timestamp: [43:27]

Mike Wright further explores the application of game theory in drafting, emphasizing the significance of opportunity cost in making strategic decisions.

Mike Wright [45:28]: "It's a game of probability. Consider the opportunity cost of drafting a player."

Key Points:

• Strategic Flexibility: Understand how each pick impacts the overall team structure and potential future selections.
• Maximizing Value: Aim to draft players who offer the most value relative to their draft position.
• Balancing Act: Weigh immediate team needs against potential future benefits when making selections.

---

Tip 4: Play for the Now

Timestamp: [46:07]

DD Westbrook underscores the importance of immediate impact in managing your fantasy team, rather than solely focusing on long-term gains.

DD Westbrook [48:07]: "There is a lot of value in the present week."

Key Points:

• Active Management: Engage in frequent roster adjustments to address week-to-week performance fluctuations.
• Prioritizing Current Performance: Make decisions based on current player form and upcoming matchups.
• Balancing Acts: While planning ahead is crucial, ensuring your team is competitive each week can be the key to sustained success.

---

Tip 3: In-Season Management Over the Draft

Timestamp: [51:16]

Andy Holloway and DD Westbrook emphasize that winning the championship hinges more on in-season management than on draft prowess alone.

Andy Holloway [53:08]: "You got to keep up with the waivers. You've got to pay attention to the news. You've got to make changes to your roster."

Key Points:

• Continuous Engagement: Regularly monitor player performances, injuries, and other relevant news.
• Waiver Wire Savvy: Utilize the waiver wire effectively to bolster your team as the season progresses.
• Adaptability: Be prepared to pivot your strategy based on unforeseen developments throughout the season.

---

Tip 2: Prioritize Running Back Targets

Timestamp: [54:12]

Mike Wright highlights the crucial role of target share for running backs in enhancing their fantasy value, especially in PPR (Points Per Reception) formats.

Mike Wright [54:19]: "A target is just more valuable than an actual attempt."

Key Points:

• Versatility Matters: Running backs who are involved in the passing game offer dual-threat potential, increasing their overall value.
• Statistical Insight: Historically, RBs with high target shares outperform those who are solely ball carriers.
• Strategic Drafting: Focus on RBs who have proven their ability to receive passes, thereby ensuring consistent fantasy points.

---

Tip 1: Get Your House in Order

Timestamp: [58:00]

Andy Holloway concludes the countdown with a fundamental tip: organize and optimize your league settings and communication channels to foster a competitive and enjoyable environment.

Andy Holloway [58:16]: "Get the ultimate draft kit... get the right versions for your league."

Key Points:

• League Settings: Ensure your league's scoring and rules are tailored to maximize competitiveness and fairness.
• Communication Platforms: Utilize effective communication tools like Slack or dedicated league forums to facilitate trades and discussions.
• Active Participation: Encourage all league members to stay engaged, attend to their rosters, and contribute to the league's dynamics.

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Conclusion

Throughout the episode, the Fantasy Footballers provide a blend of strategic advice and practical tips that cater to both novice and seasoned fantasy managers. By focusing on depth, understanding opportunity costs, avoiding common drafting pitfalls, and maintaining active in-season management, listeners are equipped with the knowledge to enhance their chances of winning their fantasy football leagues.

Notable Quotes:

• Mike Wright [45:00]: "If I take Zeke here, I don't have any more first round picks, so I can't take DeAndre Adams here if I wanted to."
• Andy Holloway [34:18]: "Stay objective and view each season through a fresh lens."

By implementing these strategies, fantasy football enthusiasts can navigate the complexities of the draft and the season with greater confidence and effectiveness.

---

For more insights and daily updates, join the Fantasy Footballers community at jointhefoot.com and follow them on Twitter at @theffballers.

Transcript

[Andy Holloway]

Hey, Foot Clan. Did you know that Spotify can be used in your car? Get all your favorite music now on the road with you and all your favorite podcasts as well. No need to switch between apps. Your daily drive is a brand new playlist, a mix of music and news made just for you. It's the best thing to happen to cars since the stereo. Take Spotify for a ride in your car today. Learn [e-mail] drive. This is DD Westbrook here with the.

[Mike Wright]

Jacksonville Jaguars, and you're listening to the Fantasy Footballers Podcast.

[Jason Moore]

Welcome to the Fantasy Footballers Podcast coming to you from pristineauction.com studios with your hosts, Andy Holloway, Jason Moore and Mike Wright.

[DD Westbrook]

Oh, Dee Dee, Dee, Dee, Dee, Dee, Dee, Dee Dee. Welcome in. Welcome in to the Fantasy Footballers. Thursday, August 15th. We had a bit of a moment right before the show. This is Andy, Mike and Jason.

[Mike Wright]

Many moments. What moment are you referring to?

[DD Westbrook]

We did have many moments, Mike, but I'm referring to the one where we all found out we have the same crush on the same girl in the same class. Although we already knew Mike had a crush on her.

[Mike Wright]

We've been hanging out for months.

[Andy Holloway]

Well, Andy and I knew that you've got a thing for her, but apparently both Andy and myself separately have kind of the analogy.

[DD Westbrook]

Yeah, the analogy needs to go. But before the show, we were just saying how excited we are for Dee Dee Westbrook.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah. Welcome to team Dee Dee. It's a great place.

[DD Westbrook]

I don't think I was ever not on his team. But you were definitely taking fan club phone calls for him.

[Mike Wright]

Well, someone's got to do it.

[Andy Holloway]

For me, it was a Marquis Lee thing. Like early in the off season when I statted guys out the. The expectation from the Jaguars. The expectation from just the, you know, the injury timeline. Marquis Lee was going to be a big part and I thought maybe he'd even be the number one or at least compete to where there is no solid value at wide receiver for a team that doesn't project to throw that much. But now with the pace that he's been getting back, DD just looks locked into that number one role and he's very cheap.

[DD Westbrook]

Yeah. Yeah. So we all. He may find his way into the breakout category. Whoa. We're already there. Of the ultimate draft.

[Mike Wright]

What a day. What a day for team.

[DD Westbrook]

The value category. We have a discussed this other than right before the show. So we'll see. Today is one of my favorite episodes that we do every year. It's 10 tips and tricks to help you win your league. One of the things that when we started this podcast, we wanted to do was kind of go, you know, we want to be accurate with all of our player analysis, player projections. I think we've proven that over the past several years, which probably annoys people that don't like dad jokes. I think that would be fair. Right. But we've had a lot of success being accurate with the player projections. But I enjoy the discussions that go beyond the player projections into ways that help, you know, the intangible factors that help you win your fantasy league.

[Mike Wright]

Right.

[DD Westbrook]

And this shows all about those intangible factors. How do you go beyond just projecting players to being a smart fantasy football owner and commissioner and player week to week? What are some of the tips and tricks, the professional type of hacks. Right. That we can do to give ourselves an advantage on a weekly basis?

[Mike Wright]

People love life hacks.

[DD Westbrook]

Yeah. And they like top lists. Yes, top lists.

[Mike Wright]

Very, very astute enunciation.

[Andy Holloway]

Well pronounced.

[DD Westbrook]

10 to 1. We're going 10 to 1 today.

[Mike Wright]

We may or may not have had a problem with that in the.

[DD Westbrook]

That enunciation there. Yes. So we're doing a top ten list today.

[Mike Wright]

Red leather, yellow leather.

[DD Westbrook]

Thank you. Ten tips and tricks to help you win your league. If we have time. We'll get into some mailbag reminder before we get into the quick question because we got preseason games tonight. So that's what the quick question is about. But you can follow us on twitter@the ffballers, the website, the fantasy footballers.com. i got to give a shout out to Kyle, our editor in chief.

[Mike Wright]

Oh, the Borgogan just broke a brand.

[DD Westbrook]

New article, vacated targets and predicting the future in fantasy football. You know me, I'm all about predicting the future. This article is great. He looks at the last several years, teams that had vacated targets. It's a very common phrase that we bring up players. You know the Raiders, right. You lose different receivers or weapons and they have all these vacated targets. What happens next? Do teams automatically fill those vacated targets with wide receivers? He makes some different conclusions in this article pointing to the running back position. So teams with vacated targets lately, in years past, they tend to look to running back. So that's insightful. That's something that might inform your decisions when we all want to do the same thing. We all want to say the best player leaves. So Corey Coleman is going to stand up and be the one for Cleveland. Terrell Pryor left for Washington. Corey Coleman is the guy. Doesn't always work out that way. Hard to be a number one.

[Mike Wright]

Yes.

[DD Westbrook]

Hard to step into that.

[Andy Holloway]

Hard to beat Corey Coleman. Let's be honest. It's been long.

[Mike Wright]

It's not been an easy ride for him. You are correct.

[DD Westbrook]

You can leave us a rating a review on Apple Podcasts. We appreciate that. You can check out the [e-mail] just made the announcement yesterday on the massive Megalobol tournament. You have responded. Yes, there are many Foot Clan.

[Mike Wright]

You better bring it.

[DD Westbrook]

That are competing in this massive tournament which if you're a [e-mail], you can enter it. You can win a listener league spot and an invitation to come hang out with us. Here's the quick question. Tonight we got five games on the docket. Preseason week two. I'm super excited because I think I'm going to see players a little bit longer than I did last week. Yeah, we know that's the case. Like in Arizona, Cliff Kingsbury said Kyler Murray is going to see a little more time tonight.

[Mike Wright]

Take it easy, Jason.

[Andy Holloway]

Don't mind me. Don't mind me. Just a little excited. Also, nice jersey, Andy.

[DD Westbrook]

Yeah, I put on my Kyler jersey today. I'm a little hyped.

[Mike Wright]

Deal with it.

[DD Westbrook]

So what are you looking forward to tonight in the games this evening? What are you looking at? What conclusions are you looking to draw?

[Mike Wright]

I'll jump in. I will jump in. I'm excited to watch the jets offense. Not just because Robbie Anderson is one of my guys, but they looked sharp. It was like all the, all the teams. It was. It was very quick just seeing the first team offense out there. But Sam Darnold, after the shaky start, he looked very sharp and he went a lot to Jameson Crowder. So I want to see if that. If that connection continues to build and they develop that chemistry and just get that. Is Sam Darnold looking like he's taking that second year step?

[DD Westbrook]

Can I ask you a question about that team and where you're at with them right now? Because every year I put out a shamelessly bold prediction article. Almost done with it. It'll be out soon.

[Mike Wright]

These are not just hot takes. These are hot, hot, scalding hot takes.

[DD Westbrook]

Scalding. Ridiculous. But you have the jets winning the division. I'm having trouble with the Jets.

[Mike Wright]

Oh.

[DD Westbrook]

Because Jameson Crowder. I believe the refrain every off season. Contractually, we're all required to think he can catch 100 passes.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah.

[DD Westbrook]

That's just people. No matter what team he's on, no matter what's going on. Jameson crowder might catch 100 passes, but reports out of camp Right now.

[Mike Wright]

Quincy, Jameson Crowder, Mike.

[DD Westbrook]

It's true. But Quincy and Noonwa looking great back from his injury scare. He showed out when he had an opportunity before the injury last year. So where are you with the non Robbie Anderson receivers? Because I believe in Sam Darnold taking a step forward. But is it a Noonwa, Is it.

[Andy Holloway]

Crowder, is it Quincy, is it Herndon?

[DD Westbrook]

Noonwa is Quincy. But yes, sure, he took your name.

[Mike Wright]

And he used the first one but he's right.

[DD Westbrook]

But then he worked in a tight.

[Andy Holloway]

End but maybe it's Jameson.

[DD Westbrook]

Super, super confused now. Lev Bell. But yes, Herndon coming back after the suspension.

[Mike Wright]

No, what about Chris?

[Andy Holloway]

I can do this all day.

[DD Westbrook]

Gentlemen, you're so helpful.

[Mike Wright]

Not very confident at least at this point that I want the guy who can hit the big play and according to reports will be used more underneath where they're going to get some easier targets for Robbie Anderson as well. So right now, because you're right, a new one did show out and then he got moved into a different part of the scheme. Granted that was last year's scheme. This is a new, new offense. But he got moved into a different part of the offense and he pulled a Houdini. He just absolutely vanished. So I'm not, I'm not buying into them for fantasy value just yet.

[DD Westbrook]

I don't, I don't think they're going to use Robbie Anderson underneath. I love Robbie Anderson. I don't know why you would do that. Jameson Crowder, Quincy and Nunois have, you know, I just don't get it. I don't get why you wouldn't use them to take the top off the defense. More often than not I think they.

[Mike Wright]

Just mean instead of only running him on the deep, running him on the posts, get him more involved, get him, get some slants touches. If Robbie Anderson can get involved in, in the slant game with a big uptick, he's going to have those Odell Beckham plays where he, the, the DB was, was too close. He breaks that one tackle and Robbie Anderson's gone.

[DD Westbrook]

All right, Jason, what are your thoughts for tonight?

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, for tonight specifically, I'm looking at Miles Sanders because this weekend as a whole, I had mentioned it last week, I really want to see the rookie running backs and how they fare against first team defenses. It really seemed like across the board, you know, Miles Sanders, David Montgomery, you had Justice Hill, a lot of guys, Devin Singleton, Devin Singletary, a lot of guys that showed out. But across the board they were all against second team at best defenses. Now we're into week two. First of all, I want to see if any of them get the first touch in the game. You know, does. Does David Montgomery get it or are they still going, you know, hey, Mike Davis, Mike Davis, the vet. The honorary vet touch. You still get it because it's preseason, but yeah. So as far as tonight, I'm looking at the Eagles offense, watching Miles Sanders and Jordan Howard, seeing how they're splitting that up and. And how Miles Sanders does against, hopefully, if it's the first team. Jaguars defense, a very good defense.

[DD Westbrook]

All right, I want to see what happens in Baltimore. They got the game against the packers tonight. Starts with Lamar Jackson, who got. I was surprised he took as many series as he did last week. You know, he kind of had some short series, so they put him back out there, but he threw the ball quite a bit. I want to see how Lamar Jackson looks throwing the football again tonight. He's one of those players that I think may end up at the end of the year, one of the biggest steals in fantasy football. But he does need to make a step. He needs to take a step forward throwing the football. Last year he was a 58% passer. It's not good enough. And when we look at Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson and we project him taking a step forward, throwing the football, part of that is, do they have the weapons to do that? Are they going to have the players around them? Is Miles Boykin able to be a contributor to the offense? What does he look like tonight? Because his range of outcomes goes from being the number one target in the offense to ancillary and unnecessary. Is Chris Moore going to play a role? Is Marquis Brown going to get back, get healthy and help Lamar Jackson by, you know, five or six deep touchdowns this year? What, is Justice Hill another one of those rookie running backs? Will they utilize him in the passing game? You talk about vacated targets on the offense. Does Justice Hill fill that role for Baltimore this year? So these are some of the things I want to see what the Baltimore offense looks like, because right now I think they can win the division, but I don't think they can. I don't think they can do that without Lamar Jackson taking at least a step forward in the passing game. So excited to take a look at that. Let's jump into the news.

[Jason Moore]

News and notes from around the league presented by Sleeper.

[DD Westbrook]

All right.

[Mike Wright]

I'm.

[DD Westbrook]

I'm getting fatigued with the unknowns in.

[Mike Wright]

Do tell.

[DD Westbrook]

Andrew Locke, Melvin Gordon, Ezekiel Elliott.

[Mike Wright]

Ah, yes. Because our job.

[DD Westbrook]

Well, it's every year, it is our job.

[Andy Holloway]

But it's hard because it's not. There's not always new information. That's the issue. Like Melvin Gordon, the saga continues. There's no information. We need to talk about it, make sure everyone's aware. But it's really difficult when it's like it's all continual speculation.

[DD Westbrook]

Yeah. Tony Romo, do you want to comment? Tony, why don't you comment on Ezekiel Elliott situation? It's a coin flip, so I would imagine Tony's dialed in. He thinks it's a coin flip.

[Mike Wright]

Maybe so.

[DD Westbrook]

I'm fatigued in the fact that I can't prescribe a true answer for Ezekiel Elliott. We don't know some things. We. It's all about risk mitigation for the fantasy owner. Do you want to even take the risk? Do you want to blacklist the Andrew Lux of the world? That's kind of up to you right now. Frank Reich came out. He said he wants to make a call on the team starting quarterback for Week 1 following the third preseason game. All we know about Andrew Luck is that they want to rehab this injury, that he's probably not going to be 100% if he plays.

[Mike Wright]

This statement is funny to me because Frank Reich, you are telling me that after the third preseason game, if Andrew Luck is not ready, you're going to say, okay, Jacoby Brissette is our starter for week one. And then Andrew Luck looks like Charlie from the Mighty Ducks who returns from his injuries. I woke up and it doesn't hurt anymore. And you go, nah, man, we're going to stick with Jacoby.

[Andy Holloway]

I mean, well, there's a reason.

[Mike Wright]

It'll be the night before the game and you're going to say, oh, Andrew, you could play great. You're the quarterback.

[Andy Holloway]

But the reason he's saying it now before preseason week two is clearly, I mean, the only reason to say it now is to send a message to Luck. I mean, to say, look, I want to name this soon. I mean, I would imagine there's a little bit of frustration. Remember, this injury happened a long time ago and they came into camp and once training camp started, day one, he was in a, you know, he was off to the side. Day two, he was on the field. Luck got back, so they thought the timeline was over. And then he was out again. So I think there's frustration going on here. And to me, Luck is off my board or at least down in the double digit rounds. And like I said, pairing with another quarterback because I don't, I don't want to Trust right now, that situation and I'm pretty much avoiding most of the Colts receivers. Ty Hilton, who's looked like a great value, now scares me. You know, we've kind of not been bullish on Eric Ebron already. And if you don't have luck, that's even worse. Paris Campbell is a rookie. I'm, I'm avoiding the Colts if it's.

[DD Westbrook]

Pricey and I don't, I don't get the impression that he's frustrated with Andrew Locke. Myself, like, I don't, I don't jump to that conclusion. But all the peripheral weapons like Ty Hilton will still be valuable people like, yes, the high end ceiling. Maybe that doesn't happen. He had games with Jacoby Brissette last year while injured where he still was a top receiver. They came few and far between, but it still happened. Yeah, the consistency goes down, funches all the tight ends. Paris Campbell, all the, all the outlook. Even the running backs, it just gets so murky. Odell Beckham Jr. Is dealing with a hip injury. Jason, are you worried?

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, I am. I'm going to actually talk about this in a little bit. I'm not worried. Like, oh, he's, he's not, he's going to miss games and I'll explain my worry a little bit later in one of the tips. But it's just, it's just a reminder that I do think Odell Beckham carries risk that we don't necessarily apply to him in general.

[DD Westbrook]

Amari Cooper, dealing with a ligament issue in the foot, unlikely to participate in the preseason. Matthew Betts, our injury expert from the ultimate draft kit. He believes his week one status is in jeopardy. We don't know how bad this is. The team doesn't seem to have that level of concern. It was initially reported as a plantar fascia irritation. Now it's being called a ligament injury. We just need to pay attention to it. But his risk ratings going up for me today? Yes, maybe some. We talked about the Cowboys early season schedule. Those three games look real nice. Michael Gallup might be able to start Michael Gallup in week one. Week two could be a sneaky late round guy that you could start if you go heavy. Running back Jeff Howe of the Athletic reports, Damien Harris is battling a minor hand and wrist injury.

[Mike Wright]

Seems like that would explain why he's not getting any more reps or at least, you know, it came out. They're barely giving Damien Harris any touches. Well, they're going to let him get healthy.

[DD Westbrook]

Nikhil Harry returned to practice. George Kittle is Day to day with calf tightness. That's about all I got for news, guys.

[Andy Holloway]

Great. Let's get to it.

[DD Westbrook]

All right, as a reminder, grab the Sleeper app, the best, most flexible platform for the modern fantasy football player. Download the Sleeper app. Get your league over there today.

[Mike Wright]

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[DD Westbrook]

For today's show also comes from NFL Game Pass. We've been talking about the preseason. This is how we watch the preseason. Only with NFL Game Pass do you get every out of market preseason game live? Are the Browns going to be a playoff contender? Do the Cowboys got all those pieces? Are the jets what we hope they might be able to be with NFL Game Pass, Your season can start right now. I'm excited, like I said, to watch the Ravens offense tonight. Jason is excited to tune in to all of these rookies. It was neat to see Devin Singletary get some time last week. You can watch through each and every play of these guys. Do they pass the eye test with NFL Game Pass? Make sure you see all the action this preseason with NFL Game Pass and you can kick off the season with a seven day free trial when you sign up right [e-mail] fantasy footballers. That is NFL.com fantasy footballers. It's time for the tips and tricks.

[Jason Moore]

Tips and tricks.

[DD Westbrook]

Can I, before we start the countdown, can I throw like a bonus tip that I just Learned? Oh, number 11, apparently you don't want to be on our wall in the studio because I'm looking at, I'm looking behind you, Jason Melvin Gordon sitting down there to your, to your right.

[Andy Holloway]

Oh, no. All right.

[DD Westbrook]

And then I'm Looking above your head. And Andrew Lux up above your head.

[Andy Holloway]

Oh, no. And so Hopkins, Jersey's on the wall, everybody.

[DD Westbrook]

Don't. Now, don't go there.

[Andy Holloway]

You're the reaper's the one that brought it up.

[Mike Wright]

He's fine.

[Andy Holloway]

He's fine, everybody.

[DD Westbrook]

I got Julio behind me. He's coming back off the foot injury.

[Mike Wright]

He's fine.

[DD Westbrook]

Our wall is recovering.

[Mike Wright]

Everything is fine.

[Andy Holloway]

Nothing to see here.

[Mike Wright]

Don't panic.

[DD Westbrook]

All right, let's get into the top 10. Tips and tr.

[Jason Moore]

Number 10.

[DD Westbrook]

All right, number 10. I'm going to kick it off. Running back depth looks stupid until it doesn't. That's tip number 10. You remember this offseason when the San Francisco 49ers signed Tevin Coleman, when they already had Jerick McKinnon and Matt Breida and Jeff Wilson Jr. And Raheem Mostert. They looked pretty silly, right? A lot of jokes, comments made about how big the running back room looks. They signed another running back, spent money on him. It was a surprise, right? Nobody expected Tevin Coleman to go to San Francisco. Except running back depth only looks stupid until it doesn't. Things change very, very quickly for fantasy football owners and in real life for the running back room. Look at them now. Imagine if Tevin Coleman hadn't been signed by San Francisco. We'd be sitting here going, okay, Matt Breida is a starter. Jeff Wilson just got banged up. So let's translate this to fantasy football. We had an article on the website looking at an injury history of round one running backs in fantasy football drafts. What is the injury risk in the first round? Even what I love going running back in the first round, right?

[Mike Wright]

Yeah. Well, the top end running backs who are going to carry the ball 200 to 250 times and then get the 50 plus targets. That's a huge difference. That's two players in one position.

[DD Westbrook]

And one of the reasons we love late round quarterback drafting is because it affords you the ability to build depth at the position stack. Mike, you've done this better than any of us in recent years in all of our leagues where you just kind of. You just kind of just add another running back. Add another running back. Oh, that name doesn't look relevant.

[Mike Wright]

Look, you get as many scratchers as you can. You don't go to the gas station and buy, oh, one. This is it. This is the golden ticket.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah.

[DD Westbrook]

You're not.

[Andy Holloway]

You're not Charlie.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah. No one's Charlie. Yeah.

[DD Westbrook]

Only Charlie's Charlie.

[Mike Wright]

A jerk in 2018, owning a chocolate factory for free.

[DD Westbrook]

He didn't have to do nothing.

[Mike Wright]

Speaking of nothing, what's going on with those grandparents? Get out of bed.

[DD Westbrook]

The grandparents just slept.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah. Yeah.

[DD Westbrook]

Okay.

[Mike Wright]

I could do an entire podcast.

[DD Westbrook]

I know you could. I know you could. Let's digress. In 2018, 33% of running backs taken around one missed time due to injury. They missed 14 games. In 2017, of the six running backs taken in the first round, two running backs were injured. 33%. In 2016, 33% of running backs drafted in the first round were injured. They missed 15 games. You go back to 2015, that was a bad year for running backs. 83% of running backs taken in the first round suffered an injury.

[Mike Wright]

That's.

[DD Westbrook]

They missed 32 games.

[Mike Wright]

That's when the following draft season, it was, the first round was like entirely wide receivers, people were mad.

[DD Westbrook]

So over that four year sample, there were 12 injuries to running back selected in the first round out of a possible 27 players. That's a 44% injury rate. All this to say you can't predict injury. You don't know when a guy's going down. You don't know what's going to happen. So depth is valuable once you need it. It's not valuable in the beginning when you look like, oh man, I should have invested this pick on top tight end. It will become valuable. And suddenly the late round additions of guys like Justin Jackson, Jalen Samuels, who fits the category, by the way, vacated targets in Pittsburgh may see some Jalen Samuels action. Darwin Thompson, who I'm rising on in Kansas City. Jamal Williams, whose name has not been uttered aloud all off season.

[Mike Wright]

Well, the part where we said he's been hurt.

[DD Westbrook]

Yeah, along with Aaron Jones, you know, Dion Lewis again last year. We were in the office yesterday. 59 receptions, I think last season, not mentioned. So those names, those guys, those late round flyers at running back, they start to become relevant. You need them. They're hard to come by on the waiver wire. Injury workload, fumble problems can get running backs benched. So don't feel stupid when you add the depth to your team. Feel smart.

[Andy Holloway]

There you go.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, in the later rounds, I prefer to take my shots on just padding running backs instead of these wide receivers who may now become my wide receiver. 3.

[DD Westbrook]

All right, Jason, you are up. We'll go ahead and we'll push this button.

[Jason Moore]

Number nine.

[Andy Holloway]

Number nine is a history of rookies by Batilda Bagshot. Okay, that is a shout out to all my Harry Potter lovers out there. You know, what it means. All right, here's the deal.

[Mike Wright]

Glad somebody does.

[Andy Holloway]

Oh, the people know. The people know. They're.

[Mike Wright]

They're excellent.

[Andy Holloway]

It was a great joke. Here's the deal. We need to utilize the extravagant amount of data we have on the history of rookies in fantasy football because it's a. It's. It's pretty telling, right? Like, not every position we. I said this, I believe, on yesterday's episode about tight ends. Rookie tight ends, they don't really hit. And the reason we say that is not just because it happened last year. Right. Like you. You brought up Mike that year when 83% of the round one rookies, they got injured. The next year, it was all wide receivers. Fantasy football tends to overreact based on what happened too recently. So you need to look a little bit wider, a little bit deeper and take a look at the history. And I've got the data for you. I'll make it really easy. So here's your tip.

[DD Westbrook]

All right, Bathilda, break it down.

[Andy Holloway]

Yes, I am. Bathilda Bagshot. Don't draft rookie tight ends. Okay. In the last seven years, here's the list of rookie tight ends. Who finished first. Dwayne Allen, he was the best.

[DD Westbrook]

What do you mean?

[Andy Holloway]

Of the rookie class.

[Mike Wright]

Okay.

[Andy Holloway]

Dwayne Allen, tight end 24. Jordan Reed. There's a name we know, but he was the 21st tight end. That's not good. Jace Amaro.

[Mike Wright]

Oh, I remember.

[Andy Holloway]

How about Will Ty? He was great.

[DD Westbrook]

The only one that blast from the past. I'm enjoying myself.

[Andy Holloway]

Rookie tight end, who is. Who has actually mattered in the last seven years? And well, further back than that is Evan Ingram. We've brought him up and he had a lot of things that happened, including Odell Beckham going down that allowed him to succeed there. So all the hype, I mean, you look at ADP lists and TJ Hawkinson is being drafted and he's being hyped up. He's going to be on the field. I'm not buying in because of what Matilda says about the history of tight ends. Let's look at wide receivers, another group that I am not really buying into because of history. Now I looked at how many. What I wanted to find out, really, when I looked into the data and I was prepping for the show, I wanted to see how often rookies actually break out, because that's really what you're going for. You're going for that rookie, that Odell Beckham, right, breaks out and is a wide receiver. 1. How many wide Receiver ones, How many tight end ones, how many running back ones? In the last seven years, there have been three wide receivers that have broken out and become a wide receiver. 1. You had Odell Beckham and Mike Evans in 2014 and Michael Thomas in 2016. Outside of that, even great names like last year, Calvin Ridley had 10 touchdowns. He was the wide receiver 20. He was the best wide receiver last year. He didn't actually help people in fantasy because you didn't play him that week. He got three touchdowns. You know, it just. That's how rookies happen. Or DJ Moore who had a good stretch and Dante Pettis who had a good stretch. They, they were later in the season. So really you're talking about over the last seven years, 0.4 rookies have been able to end as a wide receiver one. But look at running backs. I had someone write in recently saying that they, they don't like to draft rookie running backs. And I think that that's bad strategy. Literally. You know, I talked about Michael Thomas, Odell Beckham, Mike Evans. That's the end of the list for wide receivers. Here's the list in the last seven years of running backs who have finished their rookie season as a. As an RB one. Philip Lindsey, Saquon Barkley, Kareem Hunt, Alvin Kamara, Leonard Fournette, Ezekiel Elliott, Jordan Howard, Todd Gurley, David Johnson, Jeremy Hill, Eddie Lacy, Doug Martin, Alfred Morris, Trent Richardson. They average almost two and a quarter. Rookie running backs every year on average are in the top 12. So when you take your shot at David Montgomery and Josh Jacobs And Miles Sanders, their 80, they crush where their ADP was when you get that shot. So if you combine these first two tips, which is loading up on running backs and taking rookies take that shotgun approach, I think you're going to be good. And when it comes to quarterbacks, there's. There's not been that many who have finished as a wide receiver one in the last seven years, which was the debt I was going through. But they usually run Robert Griffin, Russell Wilson, Dak Prescott, they run the ball. So. And like Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, they didn't finish as a, as a one, but that's because they didn't play half the year.

[Mike Wright]

Right?

[Andy Holloway]

They dominated. They did play and they would have finished number one. That's why Kyler Murray's getting all the love. So when it comes to rookies, the history of rookies says draft rookie running backs. Draft rushing quarterback. Rookies, avoid the other rookies.

[DD Westbrook]

Thank you, Professor.

[Andy Holloway]

You're welcome.

[Jason Moore]

Number eight.

[Mike Wright]

Sorry, I was gonna say the. My. My tip here is now will seem not as strong because my monologue won't go on for 20 minutes. Oh, well done. Sorry.

[Andy Holloway]

My apologies.

[Mike Wright]

No, no, for nothing. I'm saying it was great.

[Andy Holloway]

All right, good.

[Mike Wright]

But mine does kind of combo in with the other two tips. We have gotten there. As the great philosopher J.G. wentworth says, oh gosh, it's my money and I want it now. And what I.

[Andy Holloway]

You're off to a good start, Mike. I'll be honest.

[DD Westbrook]

We've got Bathilda Bagshot and JG Wentworth bringing you the fantasy knowledge you need.

[Mike Wright]

We bring the deep cut win on the fantasy footballers and what I mean.

[DD Westbrook]

By that I'm feeling.

[Mike Wright]

So are you diving deep now to find a good one?

[DD Westbrook]

I'm great.

[Mike Wright]

Now is the guys I'm taking late in the draft. I want to know immediately does it look like they have a path to value? And it's especially strong for running backs because guys like Peyton Barber going extremely late in drafts, you're going to know at least for a chunk of the season you're going to know week one. Is Peyton Barber the guy or are they going to try and force it to be Ronald Jones? If it's Peyton Barber, you're going to have a nice value. The offense should improve. Bruce Arians has done magical things with his running backs and now you have a nice value with Peyton Barber. Same with Matt Burrida. What's that split going to look like between Tevin Coleman and Burrita? Is it close to burritos getting 40% but he's a. He's a hugely involved in the passing game. Devin Singletary. What happens to LaShawn McCoy and Frank Gore in front of him? Justin Jackson, if Melvin Gordon is holding out Justin Jackson to provide value early and on top of that, I'm not looking that it'd be great if these guys turn into season long values. But I'm trying to get my team off to a hot start and I want to know who can help my team right now. And you know what? They also help. They help if they do nothing because now I know I got the easy cut. It's not a problem. I don't see a path early on in the season that these people are going to provide value unlike John Brown. If John Brown comes out and has a bad week one.

[Andy Holloway]

It could just.

[Mike Wright]

Be the factors of the game. I still got to hold on to John Brown and find out.

[DD Westbrook]

Do you feel like Devin Singletary fits that category of guys? You'll know in week One, because I would imagine this season starts with Frank Gore getting all the veteran love, the pat on the booty.

[Mike Wright]

I'm drafting Devin singletary because perhaps LaShawn McCoy gets. There's still the rumors that Shady McCoy is going to be traded before the season starts. And then watching week one, it's not necessarily that Singletary puts up a huge fantasy performance, but I look at the snap counts, I look at the usage. Does it look like Devin Singletary is going to rise to the top of that depth chart quickly? That's what I'm. That's what I'm talking about. And I mean, like Golden Tate, you can draft him late, but now, okay, now I'm sitting on this golden weight.

[Andy Holloway]

Oh, oh, oh. So good.

[Mike Wright]

Kobe. Oh, that was. That was nice. Just these wide receivers where you take them late, they have a bad week one. You don't know for sure that they aren't going to be involved in next week's game.

[DD Westbrook]

All you know is that some unknown wide receiver will score three touchdowns in week one. Be sitting on the waiver wire, and you'll be like, oh, man, do I drop John Brown to go grab Kirby Mershowitz?

[Mike Wright]

Kirby Puckett, Darnell Anderson. So I want to know right now, are you going to help my team for the first 25? And that's what I want with my late shots. I don't want someone to sit on my bench for six weeks to figure it out.

[DD Westbrook]

No, that's a super important tip. I fully and wholeheartedly support J.J. wentworth on that one.

[Jason Moore]

Number seven.

[DD Westbrook]

All right, number seven. Your team is not good as you think it is. As good, not as. Wait, let me start over. Wait. Your team isn't as good as you think it is. Also known as our grammar.

[Mike Wright]

Not good.

[DD Westbrook]

My grammar. Aunt good. Not well. Here's another way to say it, Mike. Don't smell your own farts. Oh, I know, Jason. I know.

[Andy Holloway]

You need that.

[DD Westbrook]

You need that warning more than most.

[Andy Holloway]

I need that advice in my life.

[DD Westbrook]

Fantasy owners. Each and every year, we fall in love, especially with the roster you draft. You spend month after month after month preparing to draft that roster. And guess what? A lot of the times you think you drafted the best roster.

[Andy Holloway]

I.

[Mike Wright]

We're all guilty of it after draft night. Oh, you just turn down the lights, pull up the lap time. He's like, oh, yeah, yeah, look what I did.

[DD Westbrook]

And you fall in love. You also might fall in love with players that they did nice things for you last year. They put up huge points. We have our. My guys, our Projected My guys. You've got your my guys. Sometimes they're guys that delivered for you last year. But they can cause us to have a biased view of your own team. And here's what I mean. We've been in so many leagues where owners think that all of their players are the best players and they're the they have a rose colored view of their roster. No one else is as good. You turn down trade offers that make perfect sense for your team because you are only looking at your roster through the lens of their every player ceiling. You're not looking at reality. Here's the thing. You don't get to count last year's points towards this season if you own Philip Lindsay. You don't get to look back to last year and say guess what, I get those points this year. You don't get bonus points if you own the player's jersey. Surprisingly so if they're your favorite player, your hometown team. I'm wearing a Kyler jersey right now. I don't get points for being a fan. You don't get a head start in 2019 by holding on to last year. That's the point I'm saying. So you need to try your best to be objective as a fantasy owner. View each season through a fresh lens. Start fresh if something starts to go sideways from how you viewed a player all offseason, oh I know this player is going to do X. You can be tempted to hang on to that for no reason. There may be no real reason to believe that that breakout pick you had or that late round pick flyer you took will ever break out three, four weeks into the season. Mike, you talked last tip about learning early in the season. The dumbest thing you can do is learn and then do nothing about it. Say or basically put your head in the sand and say next week, next week, next week. Some of the best trades you can make are cashing in on that type of bias that another owner has about your players. You can sell that. If you know in two or three weeks that Peyton Barber, oh, he's not going to be the guy. He's not going to get the work, he's not going to get the passing work. You might be able to sell another owner on your league on what he did last year. You may be able to turn this tip in your favor. So if he's not panning out early, don't project something onto them that isn't going to happen in the next few weeks. Stay water. Your team might not be as good as you think. Super Team.

[Andy Holloway]

Oh, I feel like that dig at me.

[Mike Wright]

Body blow right at the very end.

[DD Westbrook]

It wasn't really a dig. It was more of a reminder.

[Mike Wright]

More of a kick in the crotch.

[DD Westbrook]

Look, your team last year was a super team.

[Andy Holloway]

Shout out to the listener who tried to get in Listen. League by taking a nut kick. Good job.

[DD Westbrook]

Oh, yeah, we didn't say that, huh?

[Andy Holloway]

No, but we saw it.

[DD Westbrook]

We saw it. Funny, I've been waiting for someone to bring up. Did he get. Did he get into the listener? No, he was not chosen.

[Andy Holloway]

So if you're not chosen, know that. Yeah.

[DD Westbrook]

So we go. We do review, everyone, and thank you so much for those listener league submissions. And then we've got our finalists. And then we rank them internally, and then we let the ranks fall where they fall. I ranked nut kick guy very high because he took. The reason being. Now, Jason, stay with me. It's because he took a huge punt, like a kick to the nuts.

[Andy Holloway]

Right?

[DD Westbrook]

That was the real. That's why I wanted to put him in.

[Mike Wright]

My only problem is twofold. The.

[DD Westbrook]

The. Hold on. Your only problem is two problems.

[Mike Wright]

Okay? I realized it was two because it's either. See, they're number one. This. This fan. This. This man should. It's just a video. We're not there. He should have been wearing. Wearing protection for sure.

[Andy Holloway]

And I would have been.

[DD Westbrook]

Oh, exactly. And he could have been.

[Mike Wright]

And that's the. That's why there's two problems. He could have been and we've been deceived. Or he didn't and he's a psycho.

[DD Westbrook]

And he's a psycho.

[Mike Wright]

Either way, you lose. But it made us laugh.

[DD Westbrook]

Yes, it did. And it almost got you in the league.

[Jason Moore]

All right, next Tip number six.

[Andy Holloway]

No risk it. No biscuit and biscuits can lead to diabetes. That's my title for tip 6.

[Mike Wright]

What is happening on today's show?

[DD Westbrook]

Can I. Before you get into whatever, unravel that ridiculous title. Every year on this show, normally we each put in our tips and then we go through as a team and we name these things. This year that didn't happen like we named them ourselves. And you're getting the results.

[Andy Holloway]

You're welcome.

[DD Westbrook]

So hold on. No risk it. No biscuit biscuits lead to diabetes. What on earth do you mean?

[Andy Holloway]

I'm saying, look, I don't want diabetes in my first round. Maybe you do. But in my first round, I want to avoid risk. I've said this for years. This is a tip I always bring up. Is that early in the draft. Avoid risk. There's no reason there's no reason to go with the risky player. The player that has some big. He changed teams or he's got a big injury history or, you know, like everybody in the first round is good. Everybody there is a good player has a chance to finish, as you know, near the number one in their position. So if you bypass on a risky player, you are saying no to diabetes is what I'm saying. Here's the thing.

[DD Westbrook]

You could go gluten free in the first round. Is that what I'm hearing?

[Andy Holloway]

That's what I'm talking about. Bruce Arian said no risk and no biscuit. I'm saying in the first round, maybe don't follow Bruce's advice. Here's my data to back me up. Let's look at these.

[DD Westbrook]

But Zelda stepping up to the microphone again.

[Andy Holloway]

Look at the last two years. I looked at the first round of the last two years.

[Mike Wright]

Set your timers.

[Andy Holloway]

No, it's. I'm only going two years, not seven years. So we're okay. Last year, who were the busts? Lev Bell was a bust, okay, Obviously biggest bust of the first round. He was dealing with a holdout. There was giant risk with him, but you took the risk and it failed. David Johnson, I don't think he was really a bust because he finishes the running back 10, but because it happened last year, everyone feels that way. But even him, he had a brand new team. He had a rookie quarterback. There was a lot of big variables there. To David Johnson, well, he was supposed.

[Mike Wright]

To have Sam Bradford, sure.

[Andy Holloway]

Okay. That's not risky. Kareem Hunt, there was nothing you could do about. Right. Kareem Hunt was great. And then something came out. His season was over. And you know, that was a bust that you couldn't see beforehand. You had Leonard Fournette, who has a giant history of being injured, and then the only other bust in that first round was Odell Beckham. As far as where he finished, you could say, well, he was good until he got injured. Whatever. We'll talk about that in a second. Go back a year prior, you have David Johnson. Nothing you could do about that. Right. He got injured early in week one and was out. The other ones were again, Odell Beckham, who has this history of being drafted in the first round and still dealing with injuries. And you had Jay Ajayi, who was on a bad team. So much of his stats came in like three games. We brought that risk up that year very similar to Derek Henry. So it's like, look at this here. Who are the risks You've got Zeke. Maybe I'm not taking him at four because there's just no reason to. You've got Lev Bell. Changed teams, new everything. New offensive line, new scheme. Todd Gurley, who is still amazingly on some ADP lists in the. In the first round, and Odell Beckham Jr. Who again, he has not only this history of injuries, but. But he has also changed teams, new quarterback. And these could be great. All four of those guys. Zeke, Lev Belltog, Gurley, obj. They could be dominant this year. But I'm saying as a tip, like, why take the risk when there are other. There are other great options? I mean, Julio or Odell Beckham, you know, they're going right next to each other in drafts.

[DD Westbrook]

That's why.

[Mike Wright]

But Julio carries risk, too. He carries the same risk.

[DD Westbrook]

Really? No, he's. He's played basically 16 games for years and years.

[Mike Wright]

He has. I mean, he's been able to play through, but I'm just saying, I would.

[DD Westbrook]

Argue he's probably the least risky.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, he's. He's been. Just look at his career finish. And every year.

[DD Westbrook]

Let's circle back to Zeke, because I brought this up the other day, this whole thought of, like, he should be the fourth. You know, we say, oh, he'll be the fourth of that group. I don't know if I buy that, because it's the same decision for any owner. Like, ooh, Zeke is sneaking to the seventh pick. Well, guess what? The person at the seventh pick gets one first round draft pick. It doesn't matter whether Zeke snuck to you to give you a screaming value.

[Mike Wright]

Sounds like you're talking about my next tip.

[DD Westbrook]

All right, we'll get to that.

[Jason Moore]

Number five.

[Mike Wright]

But also my biggest takeaway from Jason is he will not be drafting Wilford Brimley in the first round.

[Andy Holloway]

That's right. I don't like oatmeal.

[DD Westbrook]

That's a deep cut. I like it.

[Andy Holloway]

Thank you.

[Mike Wright]

So this show is all about. In my. My tip here is I just want to talk some game theory. I want to talk opportunity cost. That phrase does come up on this podcast from time to time. But when you take a player, it doesn't just cost that draft pick. It also costs what you didn't select. And you don't need to get into the paralysis by analysis of this. I just. I want our listeners to start looking at fantasy football for what it is. It's. It's a game. It's not just, oh, I watch football, so I take the best players. Like, there's. There is an entire theory that can help give you an edge in this game. This game is all probability. That's. That's the game we are playing. When you boil it down, and it's like if once, once the, the simulation takes over and they're playing fantasy football, they'll be able to do it because it's just running probability numbers. So for example, like Andy was just saying, if you take Zeke at number seven. What yours? If maybe you're just staring down, oh, I got the value. So this has to happen. You also need to factor in. Okay, well, if I don't, if I take Zeke here, I don't have any more first round picks, so I can't take Devonte Adams here if I wanted to. He's not going to come back to me. So.

[DD Westbrook]

And how do you have to protect that risk of Zeke later in the draft? Does it cost you two picks to take Zeke there?

[Mike Wright]

Exactly. So I'm just wanting people to. I'm not going to dive into like a big monologue here about going deep into that game theory. I just want people to start wrapping your head around. It's more than just I pick a guy. Like there is, there is. I pick this guy means I don't get to do this. And this, I mean, quarterback, early quarterback.

[Andy Holloway]

That's the, that's the whole crux of the argument isn't that Pat Mahomes isn't going to be good. Pat Mahomes is going to be great. It's. What are you giving up?

[DD Westbrook]

And you're saying, look, consider the cost, right? Yes, consider the cost. Sit down and consider.

[Andy Holloway]

That's a good title.

[DD Westbrook]

Yeah, I like that. Jason had these very convoluted titles. Mike didn't title his. It's just opportunity cost.

[Andy Holloway]

Well, so who's are better? Andy, I want you to have to.

[DD Westbrook]

Say that they are both equally not as good as mine.

[Mike Wright]

Technically Jason titled his, so his has to be better.

[Andy Holloway]

Right? Thank you, Mike.

[DD Westbrook]

Good.

[Jason Moore]

Number four.

[DD Westbrook]

Number four. The title for number four is Memories of now, which is a famous Brooks is Nodding Duke Silver album. Ah, Memories of Now.

[Mike Wright]

You should, you should have gone with. Just started belting out memories from Cats.

[DD Westbrook]

I do not know that. Thankfully.

[Andy Holloway]

You do. You don't.

[Mike Wright]

You don't know memories.

[DD Westbrook]

I got an app on my phone that will send an alarm if any cat songs are played within a square block. He's allergic and I run. Yeah, I'm allergic.

[Mike Wright]

I'm not a fan of the musical, but Memories is one of the most famous show tunes of all time.

[DD Westbrook]

Then I probably have heard it. Mike, are you satisfied? I don't want to hear it. Now here's the point with number four, because you don't know where I'm going yet. The power of now is what I want to get into. And again, I'm not going. I don't have some huge monologue. But I want fantasy owners to remember something here. The best fantasy owners are the most active fantasy owners. And sometimes we underestimate the value of picking up a victory today versus building everything for the future weeks. Okay, so this doesn't mean that you're not wise and you don't plan ahead and you're not smart in your league because there are very, there are ways that you can do that. And we talk about them all season long. What it you know, we talk about you have a player that's already through there, hasn't had a bye week, and you trade for a player that's already had their bye week. So you just picked up a week. Those are smart thought thoughts that you can have plans that you can make for the future. Those are smart things to do. But there is a lot of value in the present week. I love spending my fab dollars on players early in the season when I think that they're going to make a difference to my team right there, right now. Last year, need a tight end. $44 on George Kittle. Done. No. No remorse. No. No disappointment. Maybe it doesn't work out.

[Mike Wright]

There was, there was a huge chance for, for great despair on that one.

[DD Westbrook]

You can always be wrong. But if you have the conviction that you need a player and they're sitting there, what I'm saying is, don't be paralyzed by going, boy, if I spend this money on a player I know will affect my team today, I'm not going to be able to spend it on a theoretical player that will be available in week seven. You might not have your team in a very good position in week seven. You know, today you can get a player that makes a difference. I'm always trying to make trades in my leagues that benefit the. The upcoming week and the upcoming matchup. Sometimes if you don't have a powerhouse team, if you have a powerhouse team, it's a little easier to set it and forget it right? You're not micromanaging each and every player. If you're running out last year, Mahomes, Gurley, Tyreek, back home, whatever. But a lot of the times you don't have a. You need to buy weeks. When we started this company like a Lot of startups have the same story. We were literally just trying to buy survival for another month, come up with a strategy to how do we get to the next month? That's what fantasy is like a lot of the time. Can I win this week and then I'll figure out next week? Next week, you make trades. You waiver wire pickups. Play for now a little bit. It's no good spending all your fab dollars in week 10 if you're already out of the playoffs, is my point. So consider the future, but play for now. That's my tip.

[Andy Holloway]

I actually really like that. And it's good advice for dynasty leagues as well, where owners so often get so enamored with the future that they never are able to win the championship in any year that they're actually playing fantasy football, but they always look sweet down the line.

[DD Westbrook]

And you kind of question yesterday when I said I made a dynasty trade with Hilton, right? And it was like, what, It's a dynasty league and Luck might miss a couple games? Well, my thought process with that is I'm not going out there trying to give Hilton away. I'm trying to trade Hilton for what I believe is a great value and return right now. And yes, maybe it buys me three or four weeks, but it should be a good trade regardless. So I'm thinking in the. In the now, but also in the future. I'm not selling. I'm not reacting, but I'm saying, well, if I got a great wide receiver back, if I could do a trade for Juju, I don't have to deal with Andrew Luck. That's kind of the thought.

[Mike Wright]

And there is like, there is a strong emotional value to one win, like winning a week on in fantasy football. Not just. I mean, your mood. I mean, which it horribly affects, I'm saying your emotion to how you feel about that league and moving forward and trying to keep yourself engaged. It's. It's amazing how you can be sitting three and, oh, yeah, this, and then you lose your three and one, which is still fantastic.

[DD Westbrook]

The sky is falling.

[Mike Wright]

But your. Your team at 3 and 1 looks infinitely different to you than it did at 3. 0.

[Andy Holloway]

We've all made tilt trades.

[DD Westbrook]

Oh, I was gonna say chasing.

[Andy Holloway]

I'm owing. Got to do something.

[Mike Wright]

So there is a power to snatching of a victory away on a Sunday where you weren't expecting to.

[DD Westbrook]

Absolutely.

[Jason Moore]

Number three.

[Andy Holloway]

Number three. No clever title here. Just something I like to say every single year because it is always true. You don't win the championship at the draft now, that's not to say the draft's not important. You set your foundation, set your foundation there. But I promise you, I used. The reason I always bring this up is I used to be this player a decade ago. I would draft well. I would get. I'd have a good team and I would get to the playoffs and lose or I would be the first team out of the playoffs year after year after year. And the reason why I didn't really understand is because I put so much emphasis on the draft, which was great, and then kind of abandoned it as it went along. And when I say it, I. I'm speaking of news, I'm speaking of the research and those type of things. That's why we go year round here, so that, you know, as you continue through the season, don't forget about all the stuff that changes. Here are a list of some of the most owned players in championship leagues this past season. Nick Chubb was not great in the beginning. You could get him off of waivers, I believe, Mike, you held him, dropped them, had to pay for him off of waivers, right? Philip Lindsay, not a draft guy. Jalen Samuels was one of the most owned guys in championship leagues. Damian Williams, Derek Henry. These are players that were on the teams that won championships. And there's no way that those were guys coming out of the draft on all those rosters. This is a league. You brought it up, Mike. This is a game. It's game theory. And if you're going to cross the bubble from being a good team to the championship winning team, it's not what you do before the draft, it's what you do from weeks one through 16. Sixteen, not 17, because we don't play championships in week 17. Foot Clan.

[DD Westbrook]

And those, that guy who got kicked in the nuts might.

[Andy Holloway]

So here's the thing. You got to keep with the waivers. You've got to pay attention to the news. You've got to make changes to your roster. You know, two years ago, my roster that I won the championship against, the loser Brian Ketron was. I had one player that I drafted on that team and everything else was just clawing together players who can matter that week. And so if you want to get over the hump, stick with fantasy fun news through the year, stick with your waiver wires, keep making transactions. That's what puts you over the top to actually winning a championship.

[DD Westbrook]

You want to keep the analogy going. Mike said, look, before you build the house, you consider the cost the draft. You're setting the foundation for the house that you're building but you got to stick with it each and every week. That's why we come listen to the show. We're here every single day. Help you build on that foundation. Mike, you're up.

[Jason Moore]

Number two.

[Mike Wright]

Running back targets are incredibly important.

[DD Westbrook]

All right, all right.

[Mike Wright]

And we talk about that a lot. The value of the pass catching running back, the difference that a workhorse running back makes when they do see that 50 plus target share, we've talked about that. Because a target is more valuable than a rush. And just to break that down real quickly, what do you expect? How many yards do you expect on a rush? A 4.0. That's kind of the benchmark of that's a solid, that's a solid average. That's a solid run. If you're only getting four yards on a reception, that's, that's bad.

[Andy Holloway]

It's terrible.

[Mike Wright]

You're going to inherently get more yards and then you get the PPR bump. So that's what we mean by a target is just more valuable than an actual attempt. Not only does it keep your running backs game script proof if they can be the pass catcher, but it's very important to the top and finish of these running backs. So last year all of the top 10 had at least.

[DD Westbrook]

Oh gosh, at least.

[Mike Wright]

All of the top 10 running backs in half point had at least 55 targets. And you had some running backs that had incredible production. Chris Carson, 1150 yards on the ground.

[Andy Holloway]

Wow.

[Mike Wright]

Nine rushing touchdowns.

[Andy Holloway]

Oh, good.

[Mike Wright]

Those are fantastic running end of season rushing numbers. He was still 30 points out of the top 10 because he only had 24 targets last year. Derrick Henry, yes, he saved some championship teams but on the season 10, 59 rushing yards, 1212 rushing touchdowns. He was also about 30 points out of being in the top 10 because he only had 18 targets. In 2017, there was only of the top 10 guys who are not getting a ton of targets. Fournette. But Fournette still had 48. And then Zeke, who's Zeke is the outlier. Zeke can be in the top five without the targets. There's always that one guy and this, it's Zeke right now. 2016, only Zeke and LeGarrett Blunt were the non pass catching running backs in the top 10. It took 18 touchdowns from LeGarrett Blunt to show up there. Running back targets are incredibly important. So when you are, when you're looking at Derek Henry, who I'm not paying, I am not paying the ADP for Derek Henry because he's not going to get the Path down to work. We bribe the name of Dion Lewis who the ghost of Dion Lewis for.

[DD Westbrook]

Ghost still gets the ghost. 70 targets, something like that.

[Mike Wright]

He's still gonna be there, catch the ball because that's not Derek Henry's job. So if you're. When I'm taking the shots on those running backs in that round and those rounds, I want to know that they at least have the pass catching skill set.

[DD Westbrook]

And I'll piggyback for a moment to circle back to that article I brought up at the beginning. Teams are passing to running backs more. We also brought up the middling tight ends on yesterday's show. Not getting as many targets, teams passing to the running backs more. There are teams each and every year that change their philosophy to pass to the running back more as well. Carolina did it when McCaffrey arrived, right? Right. Houston might do it this year with Duke Johnson's arrival. Teams can make that transformation. So if you can identify the team with the vacated targets and a pass catching running back that hasn't passed, you know they haven't done it before. There could be opportunities for value there because of the power of the target.

[Mike Wright]

Right. But just because a guy hasn't done it before that, that's not the same as saying this player doesn't have a pass catching skill set.

[DD Westbrook]

Absolutely.

[Mike Wright]

Like to me, we know that Derrick Henry doesn't have the past catch.

[Andy Holloway]

Chris Carson does.

[Mike Wright]

Right.

[Andy Holloway]

He just wasn't involved that way. But the reports are that he might get involved and we've seen him succeed. He caught everything that was thrown his way last year. Yeah.

[DD Westbrook]

All right, we'll get you out on this. Number one, get your house in order.

[Andy Holloway]

Get the ultimate draft kit.

[DD Westbrook]

Clean your room. Yeah. That's the number one.

[Andy Holloway]

Number one, get the ultimate ultimate draft kit dot com.

[DD Westbrook]

That's a wonderful tip, Jason.

[Mike Wright]

Thank you.

[DD Westbrook]

That can be 1B. How about that?

[Andy Holloway]

I'll allow it.

[DD Westbrook]

But no, get your house in order. What do I mean by that? Whatever your league needs to be more competitive, more fun, whatever settings have been broken for a handful of years that you just have been. This is how we've always done it, to change. So out of there, two owners in your league that are dragging down the league with their inactivity or playing bench players on a week to week basis. So get the right owners in your league, get the right settings for your league, get the right platform. If you're not on the right platform, get the right tools so that you can enjoy the season. Whether that's getting on Twitter, following beat reporters following subscribing to podcasts, the ultimate draft kit, making sure you're up to date on news, whatever you need to do. August 15th is a good time to figure that out.

[Mike Wright]

Yes. Before the. Before you're back into it, going, oh, dang it, we did it again.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah. Remember to look at, you know, fab settings. Does your league want to change to fab? Do you have that Week 17 championship where you, you know, let's move it to week 16. Are you a standard league and you want to go to PPR or our preferred setting, Half ppr, which is the best setting, you know? And the thing is, is all these leagues, I mean, there's a Harry Potter league out there that started on the footclan leagues.com and they do this. It's. It's got to be a 400 page manual for how to be in this league. It's unbelievable. But my point mostly spells. Yes, it's mostly spell, but the point is we say half point is our preferred. Whatever your league wants is great, but talk about it and fix the things that are broken and stay up to date with the other people in your league.

[Mike Wright]

Get a communication.

[DD Westbrook]

Thank you. Yeah, that's a huge one. We always want to remind people, whether it's Slack or Facebook or wherever the case may be, find a central place. Sleeper does a good job of creating a central messaging area, but just make sure you can communicate because that's how trades happen. You know what I mean? Find a couple drivers of conversation. This podcast started almost five years ago with Mike and I on our lunch breaks, going into a room and recording a show for 12 people.

[Andy Holloway]

It was great.

[DD Westbrook]

And we were two of the 12.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah. Look, to your point, Andy, when you want to make deals, you got to be in the room where it happened.

[DD Westbrook]

Okay. Yeah. I'm surprised we got to the end.

[Andy Holloway]

I feel like because this show has been so silly, we should let everybody know you're coming in. Last year, we did have all three of us in the top 20 in accuracy, two of us in the top 10. We are historically accurate and we know what we're talking about. But I say all that just because we've been exceptionally silly. And I want you to know we do know what we're talking about. We take it seriously, but we want to have fun.

[DD Westbrook]

Well, that's what fantasy football is all about. That's why I say get your house in order, get the right owners in there so you can enjoy the league so that you got. You need the right people to gloat.

[Andy Holloway]

Oh, if someone didn't pay any attention to the league and didn't make any transactions or whatever, I'm not. What's up, man? In your face.

[DD Westbrook]

They're like, wait, what am I in the league?

[Andy Holloway]

What's in my face?

[DD Westbrook]

I kid you not. I'll share this story. Someone at our church was trying to get a fantasy football league going and so they're sending out a text, trying to invite people. They're just. Sometimes you're scraping the barrel, right? You might not have enough interested people. Somebody replied, I'll leave them nameless. And he said, I'll play but I'm not very good at fantasy and I don't pay attention a lot and I just trade my players to the team I think has the best chance to win the title. And I said, you're out. I said, you should never play fantasy football. Dear sir, what is what we forget. I mean better to have an eight team league without that that player than a 10 team lead.

[Mike Wright]

Do they feel some win by association? I traded you that player. That championship is mine.

[DD Westbrook]

I will only join if I can collude for the victory of the better player.

[Andy Holloway]

Do I get my name on the plaque as well?

[DD Westbrook]

I love you, David. All right, closing the show out Pristine Auction. We want to thank our studio sponsor. A Keenan Allen signed Chargers jersey sold yesterday on pristine auction for $61. Use the registration code [e-mail] that's P R I S T I N E auction.com and definitely check out the ultimate draft kit to get ready for your draft. You can find that atultimate draft kit.com until tomorrow, gentlemen.

[Mike Wright]

We will see you tomorrow. Foot Clan. Goodbye.

[Jason Moore]

Thank you for listening to another episode of the Fantasy Footballers podcast. Join our fantasy football community on jointhefoot. Com and follow us on Twitter at theffballers.