10 Tips & Tricks to Win Your League - Fantasy Football Podcast for 8/13

Summary

Podcast Summary: Fantasy Footballers - Fantasy Football Podcast
Episode: 10 Tips & Tricks to Win Your League
Release Date: August 13, 2025

In this engaging and insightful episode of the Fantasy Footballers Podcast, hosts Andy Holloway, Jason Moore, and Mike "The Fantasy Hitman" Wright delve into their top 10 tips and tricks designed to help listeners dominate their fantasy football leagues in 2025. Skipping the usual advertisements and intros, the hosts dive straight into valuable strategies, peppered with notable quotes and timestamps for easy reference.

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1. Grab a Few Mystery Bags (10:00)

Mike Wright kicks off the tips section by encouraging fantasy managers to take risks on late-round rookie players, referred to as "mystery bags."

“On average, three rookie wide receivers per year, drafted round six or later end up as top 24 wide receivers. I want a chance at a boat.” – Mike Wright [16:25]

Key Points:

• Rookie Value: Late-round picks often include breakout stars like Jalen Waddle and Justin Jefferson.
• Historical Success: Examples from previous drafts where late-round rookies have provided significant value.
• Strategy: Diversify by selecting multiple rookies to increase the chances of landing a high-impact player.

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2. The Pendulum Swings Every Year (09:00)

Andy Holloway discusses the cyclical nature of fantasy football success, emphasizing the importance of adapting to current trends rather than relying solely on past performance.

“Whatever happens last year is what everyone expects to happen next year. Except that doesn't happen this year.” – Andy Holloway [09:00]

Key Points:

• Adaptability: Last year's trends may not repeat; be prepared to pivot strategies.
• Draft Trends: Understanding current Average Draft Positions (ADP) to identify undervalued positions.
• Positional Focus: Suggests focusing on top wide receivers when they are undervalued due to a recent focus on running backs.

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3. At-Risk Starters (26:00)

Jason Moore and Mike Wright delve into identifying starters who may lose their positions due to performance or competition, advising managers to monitor these players closely.

“Things like targets per route run. If the backup is just outperforming the starter by the end of the first month, there's a chance that things could switch over.” – Jason Moore [28:05]

Key Points:

• Player Efficiency: Evaluate starters based on performance metrics to assess the risk.
• Depth Charts: Understand team dynamics and potential for backups to overtake starters.
• Actionable Steps: Keep an eye on training camp developments and early-season performances to make timely adjustments.

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4. Become a Stalwart (33:00)

Mike Wright emphasizes the importance of maintaining an objective mindset, free from emotional attachments that can cloud decision-making in fantasy football.

“Fantasy is about fun. If you want to find your perfect balance of emotional reaction and fandom with, you know, kind of being objective, I don't care how you mix that vial, you know what I mean?” – Mike Wright [33:34]

Key Points:

• Emotional Detachment: Make trades and lineup decisions based on analytics, not personal feelings.
• Objective Decision-Making: Avoid overvaluing players due to past performances or emotional attachments.
• Flexibility: Be willing to adapt and make changes to optimize team performance throughout the season.

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5. Avoid Double Onesies Early in Your Draft (38:00)

Andy Holloway warns against drafting two top players from overvalued positions (referred to as "onesies") early in the draft, which can lead to weakened rosters in other critical positions.

“You have the positional advantage at one position that you don't need as much and you sacrifice the far more important position.” – Andy Holloway [38:03]

Key Points:

• Positional Balance: Focus on building a well-rounded team rather than stacking one position.
• Opportunity Cost: Selecting two high-value players from the same position can limit options at other key positions like running back or wide receiver.
• Strategic Drafting: Prioritize balanced drafting to ensure depth across multiple positions.

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6. Anticipate Offensive System Jumps (42:00)

Jason Moore highlights the importance of identifying teams undergoing offensive changes that could lead to significant improvements, thus creating valuable fantasy opportunities.

“Over the last three years, 10 of the 11 teams that tear jumped had a new OC or a new play caller that year.” – Jason Moore [45:25]

Key Points:

• Coordinator Changes: New offensive coordinators often bring revamped systems that can boost player performance.
• Team Overhauls: Teams that were previously underperforming but have made strategic changes are prime candidates for offensive improvement.
• Player Impact: Focus on players from teams undergoing positive changes to capitalize on potential breakout performances.

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7. Do the Tight End Dance (47:40)

Mike Wright discusses the strategy of streaming tight ends rather than investing heavily in one or two top-tier options, allowing managers to maximize value based on weekly matchups.

“Every week we get on and we tell you streaming defenses that we think are good options.” – Jason Moore [50:16]

Key Points:

• Streaming Advantage: Rotate tight ends based on opponent defenses to maximize points each week.
• Metrics Focus: Prioritize tight ends with high targets and routes to increase consistency.
• Waiver Wire Utilization: Stay active on the waiver wire to promptly add favorable tight ends as needed.

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8. Beware Overdrafting Preseason Hype Machines (53:00)

Andy Holloway cautions against making draft decisions based solely on preseason performances, which can often be misleading and not indicative of regular-season success.

“Do not overreact to this preseason. Have fun, watch football.” – Andy Holloway [56:00]

Key Points:

• Preseason Reliability: Preseason performances do not always translate to regular-season success.
• Athleticism Over Stats: Focus on a player's athletic traits and potential rather than early-season statistics.
• Long-Term Evaluation: Base draft picks on comprehensive evaluations rather than short-term hype.

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9. Mix and Match (58:00)

Jason Moore introduces the concept of drafting multiple quarterbacks in dynasty leagues to hedge against potential underperformance, allowing for flexibility and trade opportunities later in the season.

“Instead of a huge grab bag of like veterans going in the 13th round, Justin Fields is a running quarterback who has given you fantasy success in the past.” – Jason Moore [60:00]

Key Points:

• Quarterback Depth: Drafting multiple QBs can provide trade leverage and cover for injury or performance issues.
• Breakout Potential: Identify quarterbacks who have the potential to exceed expectations in the later rounds.
• Strategic Flexibility: Maintain flexibility by having backup options without sacrificing key positions.

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10. Wipe the Slate Clean (61:50)

Mike Wright closes the tips with a philosophical approach, encouraging managers to let go of past disappointments and approach the current season with a fresh perspective.

“The past is a place of reference, not a place of residence.” – Mike Wright [62:06]

Key Points:

• Mental Reset: Move beyond last season's failures and focus on the present opportunities.
• Positive Mindset: Maintain optimism and open-mindedness to maximize strategic decisions.
• Continuous Improvement: Learn from past mistakes without being held back by them.

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Additional Highlights:

• News Segment:

  • James Cook's Contract: A four-year extension worth $48 million, $30 million guaranteed, highlighting his negotiation strategy.

    “James Cook is their guy. It just shows peculiar whining works.” – Mike Wright [07:54]

  • Najee Harris Updates: Returning to jogging and individual drills, with implications for his role in Buffalo's backfield.

    “Najee Harris returned to jogging and individual football drills in yesterday's practice.” – Mike Wright [10:32]

  • AJ Brown Injury: Concerns over AJ Brown's limited participation and its impact on the passing game.

    “If you get back limited, like I think I can start working my way back from the hamstring injury.” – Andy Holloway [12:27]

• Upcoming Events:

  • Mock Draft Episode: Scheduled for the following morning.
  • "My Guys" Episode: Slated for Friday, featuring special content.

    “We've got a mock draft episode coming tomorrow morning and a my guys episode coming on Friday.” – Mike Wright [04:35]

• Special Announcement:

  • UDK for Life Giveaway: Encouraging listeners to purchase the Ultimate Draft Kit for a chance to win lifetime access and a signed jersey.

    “The UDK for Life giveaway. It is coming soon.” – Mike Wright [04:36]

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Conclusion:

This episode of the Fantasy Footballers Podcast provides a wealth of strategies tailored for both new and seasoned fantasy managers aiming to gain an edge in their leagues. From leveraging late-round rookies to maintaining an objective mindset, the hosts offer actionable insights backed by real-world examples and thorough analysis. By implementing these top 10 tips and tricks, listeners can enhance their draft strategies, make informed in-season decisions, and ultimately increase their chances of winning their fantasy football leagues in 2025.

For more resources and detailed strategies, listeners are encouraged to explore the Ultimate Draft Kit and engage with the Fantasy Footballers community at jointhefoot.com.

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Notable Quotes:

• “Grab a few mystery bags. … You have to make bets that you're trying to win the majority of time.” – Mike Wright [16:25]
• “Whatever happens last year is what everyone expects to happen next year. Except that doesn't happen this year.” – Andy Holloway [09:00]
• “Fantasy is about fun. … Make the best, most objective decisions.” – Mike Wright [33:34]
• “Do not overreact to this preseason. Have fun, watch football.” – Andy Holloway [56:00]
• “The past is a place of reference, not a place of residence.” – Mike Wright [62:06]

Transcript

[Andy Holloway]

The Fantasy Footballer studio is sponsored by Walmart. Welcome to the Fantasy Footballers Podcast with your hosts, Andy Holloway, Jason Moore and Mike Wright.

[Jason Moore]

Welcome in.

[Mike Wright]

Oh, it's good to be back with you for this special episode. Wednesday, August 13th, it's the top 10 tips and tricks coming to you live.

[Jason Moore]

Quesadcase.

[Mike Wright]

Nice. Very nice. My, my, my daughter doesn't know it yet, but she's getting a CD player for her.

[Jason Moore]

Oh, a compact disc player.

[Mike Wright]

Compact disc player, which I, Are we.

[Andy Holloway]

Talking Walkman style, like on the hip, or. We talk boom, boom, bop, boom, Jason.

[Jason Moore]

That'll be called a discman. Thank you.

[Mike Wright]

Oh, man, I'm sorry, but I, I, my eyes have been open that the CD world is alive. It's, well, it's thriving.

[Jason Moore]

We don't.

[Andy Holloway]

What, don't think it's thriving.

[Jason Moore]

We don't need those.

[Mike Wright]

I don't know, Thriving is the right word. But look, everything exists, everything comes out on CD still, but nobody has anything to play the CDs on. And so she, she wanted one. And it was very fun to shop for a boombox for the first time in 20 years.

[Jason Moore]

I feel like CDs are like, they made a tech jump, you know, from, we go from. So vinyl sounds the best. Look, nerds. It does.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, it does.

[Jason Moore]

And then cassette tape still has some of the warmth because it's an analog. And then you go to cd, which is very convenient. Yeah, Digital, you could switch tracks, all those things.

[Andy Holloway]

Convenient.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, yeah, right.

[Andy Holloway]

That's what it stood for.

[Jason Moore]

Exactly. But it's like once you make that jump to a digital tech where it has the convenience. Why, like, I understand why people go back to vinyl, but why go back to CD when you could just stream. That's interesting to me.

[Andy Holloway]

I want that digital sound. Difficult.

[Mike Wright]

If you get the record player, which we have a record player. I love vinyl. But if you buy vinyl, it's like 40, 50 bucks for the vinyl.

[Andy Holloway]

That's not the issue. The issue I have with vinyl is it's like 40 or 50 seconds, you get three songs. That's what it feels like. I'm like, I'm gonna put on this vinyl and there's over shoes or something. It's like I gotta, half the time I'm just flipping the vinyl over.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, that's true. But you can buy a CD still for like 10 bucks. So it's like, I don't know, she, she wanted to get into. Hey, okay, so that's, I don't even remember what that came from. But that's, that's what we're doing. Welcome in. We've got a top 10. Oh, it was from Casey Kasem. That's where we were. We were back to the Casey case. Back to the radio vibes for you.

[Andy Holloway]

Young children out there. Casey Kasem was a radio host who was famous for his top 10 countdowns.

[Mike Wright]

With a cool voice like that.

[Jason Moore]

He, I mean, was still is like, no. Oh, well, he is gone. But I'm saying they just replay his shows. That makes far more like, hey, throw that on.

[Mike Wright]

Passed away June 15, 2014.

[Jason Moore]

Also the voice of Shaggy.

[Mike Wright]

We didn't know that we've got.

[Jason Moore]

These guys are. If I ever go to a trivia night, don't bring them off my list.

[Andy Holloway]

Don't bring me.

[Jason Moore]

Goodness gracious.

[Mike Wright]

Today's a very fun episode. It is the 11th time we've done the top 10 tips and tricks, which I guess means we have 110 tips and tricks that we've revealed over the years. I love this show because this whole podcast is built around the concept of equipping you to make, like, great decisions in your league context.

[Jason Moore]

Think about things a little differently.

[Mike Wright]

So we have some new things that we want to bring forward to pay attention to. Kyle the Borgogan himself, who helps us on show doc prep and with these tips and tricks that we came up with, helps us research them. And he, he said that he hates it because apparently this is the one episode a year that some of his league mates listen to of our show. Apparently they don't listen to the other ones. I don't know why, but why he wins. But this is the one they listen to. And so we will break down 10 tips and tricks to help you win your league on today's show. And we've got a mock draft episode coming tomorrow morning and a my guys episode coming on Friday.

[Jason Moore]

Oh, man.

[Mike Wright]

So it is jam packed. It is time for football. The big announcement. The UDK for Life giveaway. It is coming soon. So you need to pick up the ultimate Draft Kit. You know you're going to get it. If you already got it, you're entered to win. But we're giving away a UDK for Life and a signed Jamar Chase jersey. We're doing that on Monday during a live event. We'll be answering your questions and giving those items away on a Monday livestream. So all you got to do if.

[Andy Holloway]

You don't have the ultimate Draft Kit yet, if you don't know what that is, you're hopping back in. That is our resource for draft day and for the whole draft season. There's research and articles, 100 player profile videos you can watch leading up to it. It's basically like little mini podcasts on every single relevant player out there. But all of our tiered breakdowns, all of our sleepers, values, breakouts, busts, guys, to avoid everything that we do the whole off season that's in the ultimate draft kit. It's a great resource. It's proven to help make your draft better, set a good foundation. So if you're thinking about getting it, might as well get it from by Monday so that maybe you get it for the rest of your life.

[Mike Wright]

No, that'd be great. And I was using one of the tools to develop one of my tips today. Just some insights from it. But yeah. 75,000 original words of content within the UDK.

[Andy Holloway]

What?

[Jason Moore]

Stephen King write this thing.

[Mike Wright]

75,000 words of analysis feels like a little much. That does feel like too much. Like if you say it like that.

[Jason Moore]

How many thousands too much is that for you, Jason?

[Andy Holloway]

How many total? Is it 75,000, 73,000.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, it's about all the non readers out there, like. Oh, never mind.

[Andy Holloway]

Oh, well, that's why we got the videos. That's why we got videos, man.

[Mike Wright]

We'll read it to you.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah.

[Mike Wright]

So there you go. Ultimate DraftKit.com to check that out, we're going to jump right into the news.

[Andy Holloway]

News and notes from around the league presented by Progressive Insur.

[Mike Wright]

I want Al Borland to throw in that last piece of information on the UDK that you just threw in there because it's probably a fair thing to disclose at this point. I said, and no haters. We did not use AI.

[Andy Holloway]

We hire real people.

[Mike Wright]

Yes. It is all 75,000 words written by non robots. That's right. Yeah.

[Andy Holloway]

That's a good disclaimer. Nowadays, I'm not saying Kyle's not a robot.

[Mike Wright]

Kyle's as close as you can get.

[Andy Holloway]

Right? Okay. We've got close to robots.

[Mike Wright]

We got close to robots.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. It's like CIA. It's close to intelligent.

[Andy Holloway]

Right?

[Mike Wright]

All right. We got big news.

[Jason Moore]

Oh.

[Mike Wright]

Just yesterday we were talking about James Cook who was back at practice. Talks were good. They were. They were discussing things. So he came back to practice.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. What did it mean?

[Mike Wright]

Four year extension worth 48 million, 30 million guaranteed. James Cook is their guy. It just shows peculiar whining works. Yeah, look, it's one of those things where you gotta. You're like, you gotta advocate for yourself as a player. You gotta, you gotta take the leverage when you can get it. But at the same time his mechanism, his method was so odd that you kind of like, dang it, why'd that work? Right? Is that a template we're gonna like fake, go out on the practice field. Is that gonna. And then you get fake $30 million.

[Andy Holloway]

The template is go score 16 rushing touchdowns the year prior, be awesome in the playoffs and help you see your games. And then. And then you can do that.

[Mike Wright]

Like, I'm surprised that two of the Deucers are not like walking out right now as a way to try to get a raise.

[Andy Holloway]

They know that we'll just say goodbye. You know how many people want your jobs?

[Jason Moore]

It's so strange because this is how the Cowboys do it too. Of why do we wait so long? Like if we're going to do it, if you're going to do it, just get to it.

[Mike Wright]

Are they not an answer for that?

[Jason Moore]

Okay, what's your at least not maybe.

[Mike Wright]

Not in the Cowboys case because they have restructured Dak Prescott five times.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. Because they wasted money and they every big contract.

[Mike Wright]

And maybe this is a screw up by Buffalo too. Maybe this is the exact number that James Cook wanted in the beginning, but I don't think it is. I think James Cook came with a much bigger number. And this is the way the back and forth negotiation goes. And you finally get to a place where it's like, look, you want to be that guy, you want to get in there, take a little less. We'll go up a little bit. Let's do it now.

[Jason Moore]

I'm not saying there's not negotiations. I'm saying why does it like you would have known at the as soon as last season concluded, hey, look at our guys. Look who needs to get paid. And look how skill players go. Like if I'm a running back and I have no more true. Like I only have this season and this is my time to cash in and I can get hurt. This is what I'm going to do. And it's just. It's such a stupid dog and pony.

[Mike Wright]

You're basically saying, why doesn't the team take seriously the threats earlier in the off season? And they this is human nature. You got to watch it happen.

[Jason Moore]

Or yeah, we just procrastinate.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, we got to watch him miss practice.

[Jason Moore]

My only idea is like are the teams doing the exact same that we the exact same thing we do in fantasy football where it's like, do your draft as late as possible because guys get hurt and they're like, we're going to watch you during the off season and we don't want to sign you to a contract in February and then in April you're training and you get hurt.

[Andy Holloway]

It's a game of chicken. It's a contract chicken. Outside of Dallas, a lot of Dallas.

[Mike Wright]

Men run these teams.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, outside of Dallas. And I would also say outside of the Bengals, those two organizations are running by some egos up top that get in the way of the money. But here it's. It's just a matter of. I'm sure that James Cook would not have agreed to this deal at the very beginning.

[Mike Wright]

I agree.

[Andy Holloway]

I think, I think it was, you know, they're getting closer to the season and they both start sweating and then they meet in the middle. That's why the Eagles are the best run organization.

[Mike Wright]

You don't want to miss game checks.

[Andy Holloway]

They go out when you don't even expect someone to get an extension yet and go, hey, hey, how would you like this money?

[Mike Wright]

Bears did it with DJ Moore.

[Andy Holloway]

That sounds great. That's sign me up. And then they're ahead of the game.

[Mike Wright]

Najee Harris returned to jogging and individual football drills in yesterday's practice.

[Jason Moore]

I a good soft jog.

[Mike Wright]

I honestly don't. I mean, I don't understand. Maybe this is just ramp up from inactivity. I don't understand.

[Jason Moore]

Where's Darren Waller? What's that guy up to?

[Mike Wright]

We haven't heard from Darren Waller.

[Jason Moore]

That's a big ramp.

[Mike Wright]

But Najee is jogging individual football drills.

[Andy Holloway]

I mean, I hope his eyes okay after that jogging.

[Mike Wright]

Greg Roman came out and said that Omarion Hampton will rotate with another back in week one even if Najee Harris isn't available.

[Andy Holloway]

And then said, we don't sure he will. He's like, we don't know who that's going to be yet. That's up for. That's, that's up for competition.

[Mike Wright]

But yeah, lad McConkey back to 11 on elevens yesterday he said he feels like he's close to 100%. We saw Nick Chubb and Damian Pierce, who's back and fully healthy. They're splitting first team reps in Houston. So we've talked about Woody Marks. Damian Pierce was on the shelf right now Damian Pierce is back. And so that kind of throws some cold water on Woody Marks having really a chance to emerge there, I think because Chubb and Pierce like Pierce. I know you guys, Jason in particular want to dump on Pierce all the time. This was a player that ran for 5.7 a carry last year when he actually had the opportunity to rush the football. He was 5.7 a carry between the two of them. They can handle the business. If Joe Mixon misses time, we hope he doesn't miss time.

[Jason Moore]

But day three Running backs always take a long time to work their way up the depth chart.

[Mike Wright]

AJ Brown not participating in joint practices again it's been a hamstring injury. I hate this. I had moved A.J. brown up and he instantaneously got hurt because I was really excited about the potential of that passing game for both guys to really improve. I'd like to see him get back to practice because he's missing and he had gone back. He got back to limited.

[Andy Holloway]

He got back to limited. But these are joint practices today, so I don't it sounds scary to me when I first read it where it was like if you get back limited, like I think I can start working my way back from the hamstring injury and then you don't practice. It's like did you pull something? But this is now joint practices where maybe he's back on in a limited fashion, but he's not going to go all out against another team and that's probably for the best.

[Mike Wright]

Shador Sanders oblique injury when throwing so he's going to be that possibly missing more time and that's a huge because he needs the preseason games to put it on display.

[Jason Moore]

The I had seen a blurb of the Browns of like Dylan Gabriel will start if he's healthy enough. Otherwise it's going to be Shador Sanders. I don't know what they'll do if they're both hurt.

[Mike Wright]

What did they sign Huntley? Was it?

[Jason Moore]

Oh, did they pick.

[Mike Wright]

They have six quarterbacks on the roster.

[Jason Moore]

That is not a joke. They have six really going the shotgun.

[Mike Wright]

Approach and I don't, you know. Yeah, I don't know what they're going to do. Breece hall he had a comment on the Kyron and James Cook contracts.

[Jason Moore]

Don't forget Deshaun Watson still on there.

[Mike Wright]

Yes, he is. He's one of the six. So Breeze hall said of the Kyren and James Cook contracts. They've done more than me. They're in better situations. I feel like I'm just as talented. But those guys deserve their payday and what they got.

[Jason Moore]

That is really sad.

[Andy Holloway]

It's a disgruntled player.

[Jason Moore]

What isn't?

[Mike Wright]

He is not gruntled.

[Jason Moore]

This isn't a compliment sandwich because it starts off or is it?

[Mike Wright]

No, they've done more.

[Jason Moore]

No, it is. Yeah, it's a compliment.

[Mike Wright]

They're in a better situation. Good work, just as talented, but they deserve their payday. It's a nice thing to say.

[Jason Moore]

I like that they've been in better situations.

[Andy Holloway]

Just he's just taking a shot at his own team.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, he does feel like a player that is on the outside of the inner circle, but at the same time, you know, you talked about it. Justin Fields throwing to the running back position. There's still a world where he's highly productive and they're going to play the best players. So it's not the world we're drafting him in, where he's going right now, but it's, it's still possible for him to be productive.

[Andy Holloway]

At least you know, he is playing for a contract. And he knows and he's talented. He's out there right now this year. And what he does, what he puts on the field will determine what his market value is because he knows he's going to market. And so that's how I want my, you know, fantasy players.

[Mike Wright]

Hungry. Yeah, for money.

[Andy Holloway]

Hungry for money.

[Mike Wright]

That was news and notes sponsored by Progressive Insurance. Quote [e-mail] Progressive Casualty Insurance Company affiliates and third party insurers not available in all states or situations. Coverage subject to policy terms, limits and conditions. Well, we'll take a quick early break because I just want to get into the tips and tricks, which we'll do in just a minute. All right. Like I said, this is the 11th time that we have done a Tips and tricks episode. There is a digital copy of our 55. I don't know, I guess I thought one of you guys were gonna do.

[Jason Moore]

You got your.

[Mike Wright]

I know. It's on me. 55. Tips and tricks.

[Andy Holloway]

It's like a pump fan. Yeah, I'm gonna push it. Why are you pushing the button? I'm gonna push it.

[Mike Wright]

My finger over the button is never prohibited or stops anybody from hitting anything, ever. Thank you. But that digital book is available for all Foot clan [e-mail] it's time to get into it.

[Andy Holloway]

Tips and tricks.

[Mike Wright]

Well, here we go. We are into our top 10 tips and tricks to win your league for 2025. Starting with number 10. I'm going to go with this. It is. Here's my tip. Grab a few mystery bags. All right. Grab a few mystery bags. My son in the last several weeks has gotten me into Pokemon card collecting in a very small way.

[Jason Moore]

Collecting. That's what they call it.

[Mike Wright]

And so we open these packs together and sometimes, you know the expression that Mike brings up all the time, maybe it's a Boat. Sometimes you get a hit, right? And my tip for fantasy players today, I alluded to it last week. Grab a few mystery bags. And what I'm talking about is rookie players from round six to the end of the draft. Okay? Because that is where you're getting into a place in fantasy football where sometimes it feels like the right thing to do is dial in some veteran known names and commodities that seem like they're going to maybe be able to bounce back. And I'll just highlight last year what those names were. It was Nick chubb in the eighth, Zach Moss in the eighth, Marquis Hollywood Brown in the eighth, Javante Williams in the eighth. But sitting there in the middle of the eighth round as well, lad McConkey. All right. And that's what we're talking about with the mystery bag opportunity that you have in drafts. This is something I've done more and more over the years in part by necessity. Sometimes you play in leagues, you trade away earlier round picks, you have less opportunity in the middle rounds. And I want somebody that is going to give me a chance at being a true hit. Last year, Brock Bowers is another example. This was a late seventh round pick. People were dialing in Kyle Pitts ahead of him and a bunch of other opportunities. Every year there are players like this. We just don't know what the rookie's going to be. And not every rookie is going to work out. But time and time again we see these later round opportunities. You know, Jalen Waddle was in ninth round pick when he came out and had an over 100 catch rookie season. Justin Jefferson was an 11th round pick. We were worried about him. It was Ola B.C. johnson and he was behind other players in the depth chart due to the preseason. Brian Thomas Jr. Last year was a ninth round pick. You know, you have rookie running backs in, you know, historically. David Johnson, Jeremy Hill, Lev Bell, Antonio Gibson, Miles Sanders, Kenneth Walker. These were all players drafted outside the first six rounds in lieu of some of these old heads that we think are going to bounce back and give you an opportunity. On average, three rookie wide receivers per year. This is the big stat here that I want to have stand out for you. On average, three rookie wide receivers per year, drafted round six or later end up as top 24 wide receivers. I want a chance at a boat. I want a chance.

[Andy Holloway]

He's a gambling man.

[Mike Wright]

I want, I want to gamble because the upside is so tremendous. I need a. We play to win. Mike has been on the don't play scared situation. You're not going to hit on every one of those players. But when you hit, that hit can be very, very valuable. It can, it can bring you forward several rounds of ADP value more than these other players that are drafted in the later rounds this year. A good example. Tyler Warren's a ninth round pick. You're going to dial in Tyler Warren, you're going to dial in somebody like Dalton Kincaid in the 10th round. Like there are opportunities to. Or Jason would probably say, look, Tyler Warren, a few picks after Evan Ingram. Do we know what Evan Ingram's ceiling kind of is?

[Jason Moore]

Right.

[Mike Wright]

Does he still have it at 31 years old? And I'll be clear. Like Addison was another situation as a rookie. Jordan Addison was like a 9th round pick. Sometimes you're going to get Traylon Burks and I'm sorry for you if that happens. But sometimes you get Addison, sometimes you open the mystery box and it's something 4, 5, 6, 7 rounds better than what you meant to take. And if you shoot your shot on multiples in the, in terms of the rookies, I think you're going to hit on one and you're going to, it's going to be worth it, even if it's a 50% shot. To me that has been very, very valuable. Because when a rookie. Here's the other last caveat. When a rookie starts to break out or they give you a game or they give you some potential early in the season. Let's say you spent three or four picks on rookies late in the draft. Everybody believes it, everybody buys in. It's trade capital, it's excitement. You know, Garrett Wilson was a late pick.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah.

[Mike Wright]

So these are players that you take. You don't necessarily see the path. Maybe they sit a little bit further behind the depth chart.

[Jason Moore]

I think that's a huge part of it is not seeing the path, which is part of why those rookies then go there. Like when Garrett Wilson was drafted, I think he was 10th overall. Right. Right around there. And it goes to the jets.

[Mike Wright]

You're like, they, yeah, same with Waddle in Miami.

[Jason Moore]

And exactly the same thing with Jim Waddle. The Dolphins stink. We can't possibly see a way forward for that. So their ADP is real low. You get rookies like Malik, Neighbors and Marv where you're like, oh, I see the path of this really highly drafted rookie turning into something special. But it's like these, like Waddle was what, the fourth or fifth pick overall and you, we often let the situation do a terrible team just, just completely push you off of like it's impossible. It.

[Andy Holloway]

Look at. Look at the situation. Look at the situation last year with Malik neighbors versus Brian Thomas Jr. Malik neighbor's path so clear and obvious. Everyone knew, right? Brian Thomas was like, man, is he.

[Jason Moore]

The number Christian one?

[Andy Holloway]

Christian Kirk is there. Evan Ingram is there. It's a bad team. Is Trevor Lawrence good enough? I don't know. And that's why he was in the ninth round.

[Mike Wright]

Do you see the names that were drafted around Brian Thomas before and after him?

[Andy Holloway]

I do not.

[Mike Wright]

DeAndre Hopkins.

[Andy Holloway]

I would take Brian Thomas, Christian Watson.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, Gus.

[Andy Holloway]

I mean, Brian Thomas finished as a top five wide receiver, so Gus Edwards, he's probably one of the best picks last year.

[Mike Wright]

TUA and Goddard.

[Jason Moore]

So, like in part of the evaluation needs to. Just talent.

[Mike Wright]

Just talent.

[Jason Moore]

Just like betting on talent will help you more than it will hurt you.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah. And the depth chart figures itself out when talent is on display. So grab a few mystery backs.

[Andy Holloway]

Number nine. This tip is called the pendulum swings every year. And we talk about this from year to year, that whatever happens last year is what everyone expects to happen next year. Except that doesn't happen this year. That happened two years ago, four years from now. And I want to focus on what we saw last year, what worked last year, what didn't work, and how to take advantage of it for this year. So last year, the early first round, we only had three running backs drafted. It was super wide receiver heavy because that's what worked two years ago. That meant that all the stud running backs were pushed down. Saquon Barkley, Derek Henry, Jameer Gibbs, Kyron Williams. These were the league winners last year, and they were all drafted at the very end of the first or most of them into the second round as people were gobbling up wide receivers. And the second round, the rest of the second round, when you were getting kind of the second tier of wide receivers, they all busted. Then last year happened. It played out. And it wasn't the wide receivers that everyone was drafting early that dominated, but it was the running backs that dominate. The running backs just stayed healthier last year than they usually do. The top wide receivers got injured more than they usually. CD Lamb was injured, Puka was injured. AJ Brown, Chris Olave, or they just disappointed. Tyree Kill was the number one pick. Poof. He stunk. Marvin Harrison was supposed to be the hotness in the first round. It turned out he was a bust pick. And so what that means is we try to do whatever won last year. So this year, since running backs won last year, we should all Draft running backs. Everyone's drafting running backs. Look at the average draft position. It's saying that's what won last year. Running back. So grab the running backs. Except that isn't how life happens. Life is chaotic year to year and while it could absolutely repeat, running backs could be the best, it could also be the opposite. But what we know is that the draft cost is going to follow the pendulum and whatever happened last year. So this year, not surprisingly, is therefore the opposite of last year. On average, across all platforms, there are only three wide receivers being drafted inside the top 10. ADP, Jamar Chase, Justin Jefferson and CD Lamb. You know, on average from platform to platform. And everybody's focusing on the running backs again. So my recommendation this year is go against that grain. If you're a late round first, you know, if you're a second half of the first round draft pick, I'm going to go against the grain. I'm going to focus on the top wide receivers that are being pushed down not because they are better, but because they're the better bet statistically speaking. Instead of first round running backs and second round running backs that now have yellow flags, a lot of them like Ashton Genty. Okay, I know, I know he's the hotness, but he's got some, some yellow flags. We talked about this on the running back show. He's a rookie on a bad offense that we haven't seen before. Jonathan Taylor, Bucky Irving, maybe even cmc. These guys are right now, I think being overdrafted. But what is more important is that's pushing the value down on wide receivers. So Amon Ross, St. Brown, Puka neighbors, Nico Collins, Brian Thomas Jr. AJ Brown, Drake London, they are all being drafted at the 110 or later deep into the second round. And I feel like if I'm just looking statistically not talent of the player and what I believe, but just like you got to make bets that you're trying to win the majority of time, it seems like the value to me is there. So in this specific draft, if I'm drafting at the end of the first round, I'm not going to fall trapped to the ADP and draft questionable running backs over stud wide receivers just because.

[Mike Wright]

Just because that's what running backs worked out last.

[Andy Holloway]

Exactly.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah. Yeah, that makes sense.

[Andy Holloway]

Number eight.

[Jason Moore]

All right, we're going to talk about at risk starters. So last year we had an episode where it was players you are embarrassed to love.

[Mike Wright]

Okay.

[Jason Moore]

And in that episode I brought forth Bucky and Tank Bigsby of players like looking at who they were, you know, draft capital. For Bucky. It was a third day running back Tank is competing with a first round running back and had himself a very embarrassing first year. And so it wasn't necessarily that I loved those players in particular, but I looked at the situation, thought I think the starters could be overtaken.

[Mike Wright]

This episode last year when you brought Bucky up was the first time I believed you about Bucky.

[Jason Moore]

Oh, it was the.

[Mike Wright]

I mean I. Because in the off season like the Rashad White thing was working. This is a good team. They were very successful. He caught almost 100% of his passes. Like that was the arguments I was bringing to the table for Shot White last year. This was the first. But you had always stood up against his inefficiencies.

[Jason Moore]

Yes.

[Mike Wright]

And so you're saying that look for situations where the starter themselves, by their play, by their performance, by their metrics.

[Jason Moore]

Exactly.

[Mike Wright]

Appears at risk. ETN was another one.

[Andy Holloway]

You hated Rashad White, you hated ETN and you were right on both.

[Mike Wright]

And I believe he still hates them.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah. Just as people, not as fantasy assets. Just like the main.

[Jason Moore]

I don't have a problem with Rashad White this year like of the ADP for what he could give you. It's perfectly fine. It's just the. When you buy into a player, especially at the running back position early and the only true check mark in their box is they're going to get a ton of volume. They're not going to be very good. Those guys are at risk. Like they can still end up keeping their job. Like maybe someone in the, you know, the RB2 is not talented enough to take them off the field. That can happen. But these are situations that you need to pay attention to. And like the backups, it can take some time. It took Bucky some time to overtake Rashad White. So I'm not necessarily saying these are guys you got to take in your draft.

[Mike Wright]

You know, another one was Tyrone Tracy with Devin Singletary. That was actually another situation. We maybe didn't have as much confidence in Tracy, but Singletary was definitely an at risk starter on that team.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. And so maybe, you know, depending on the size of the bench in your, in your league, you may not want to draft these particular players or these situations, but you need to have your eyes open and be paying attention because like I said, it may not happen week one or week two, but you. There are markers of, you know, the efficiency of the starter versus the backup. Things like especially targets per route run. Because look, we want pass catching, running Backs, it's so much more valuable than a carry. But just, you know, looking at things like that, they're running behind the same offensive line and if the backup is just outperforming the starter by the end of the first month, there's a chance that things could switch over. So I took a look through the, you know, every team and I'm just making my best projection of situations of starters. How entrenched, how much money are they going to make? How good are those players? And I came up with five teams where I thought there could be a transition. And also these, these situations are different than ambiguous backfields, which we talk about because ambiguous, you don't know who the starter is. These are ones where it's like you.

[Mike Wright]

Know who they are.

[Jason Moore]

We're pretty confident we know who the starter is, especially when you look at ADP. So the Chicago Bears.

[Mike Wright]

Yep.

[Jason Moore]

DeAndre Swift is DeAndre Swift the guy. I mean, he's being paid like it. But Ben Johnson has.

[Andy Holloway]

He's not good enough to be deserving of being the guy.

[Jason Moore]

He could be taken off. And Kyle Menong guy has been getting some buzz. I know he's. You're adding a syllable.

[Andy Holloway]

It works.

[Jason Moore]

Monongai.

[Mike Wright]

I mean, look, I love a good.

[Jason Moore]

Manamana joke, but I don't know that we'll try it. We'll work. We'll work on it. But he is getting.

[Andy Holloway]

That was good. That was good work. How dare you.

[Jason Moore]

Crash. Wow. What I'm hearing at a Bears camp.

[Andy Holloway]

Is Roshan Monon guy. That's not his name though. That's his name now. Mike.

[Mike Wright]

It's not good, man.

[Jason Moore]

Okay, so the bear situation, Andy, we know this is happen. Let it wash over you. Like Roshan is being talked about as just a specialty goal line player, which is. It could be interesting, but they're saying Manangai looks like.

[Mike Wright]

I watched the film.

[Jason Moore]

The RB2.

[Mike Wright]

I watched the film. He looked good. He runs really hard.

[Jason Moore]

The Cleveland Browns. Jerome Ford is the entrenched starter because he's the veteran. And Quinshawn Judkins is a knucklehead and is still not a Cleveland Brown. It's like, okay, maybe Dylan Sampson needs to be someone you keep an eye on. The Dallas Cowboys is just that one is a disaster of. Did you guys see the quote about Javante Williams from the coaching staff which started with like, what are you seeing that's good about Javante? Well, he's really mature. He's seen a lot of things in the league.

[Andy Holloway]

He's mature, he's great. With his teammates, there was.

[Mike Wright]

Oh, come on the field.

[Jason Moore]

There was no on field praise. Meanwhile, Jaden Blue has been getting praise in camp. The Minnesota Vikings. Aaron Jones is the starter. Jordan Mason is going in much, much later. It wouldn't like these. What's wild about these is it's surprising when it happens every time.

[Mike Wright]

Yes.

[Jason Moore]

And I'm even willing to. I will be a man of honor.

[Mike Wright]

He is a man of honor.

[Jason Moore]

The Seattle Seahawks, if Ken Walker can't stay healthy, if he can't do what they think he's going to do, they have second round running back Charbonnet in the wings waiting. These situations, it's probably not going to happen for every single one of them. But you need to pay attention and you need to be proactive. Like a week early. Wow. When waiver day hits and we're focused on, you're like, oh, I'm going to patch up my team with players who are performing right now. Sometimes you got to go with a player who is not really bringing fantasy value. But you can see the. The sea parting in front of them that in a couple of weeks that's going to be the starter.

[Andy Holloway]

I am a little disappointed at your cowardice.

[Jason Moore]

Oh, what did I forget?

[Andy Holloway]

Because, you know, you really were anti Rashad White on his inefficiency.

[Jason Moore]

Yes.

[Andy Holloway]

And you were all. You've pretty much always said you don't think Travis ETN is that good.

[Jason Moore]

Right.

[Andy Holloway]

But there's another player that you are always like, he's not that good. He's not efficient. And you basically hate him with a raging fire.

[Jason Moore]

Yes. Yes. Joe Nixon.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah. And the Houston Texans are not on this list.

[Jason Moore]

The Houston Texans, like, I just too.

[Andy Holloway]

Afraid of who it would be.

[Mike Wright]

I don't think that one. I don't think that one fits.

[Jason Moore]

I think that Joe.

[Andy Holloway]

I know, but I'm saying, Mike.

[Jason Moore]

No, no.

[Andy Holloway]

Think that fits.

[Jason Moore]

I. I honestly don't think it fits as much because I think Joe Mixon is. His job is more secure of when he's back.

[Andy Holloway]

He's the dude.

[Jason Moore]

They'll let him be the guy.

[Mike Wright]

All right. Makes sense. Those are some good opportunities to look at number seven.

[Andy Holloway]

All right.

[Mike Wright]

This one is more like, what is this philosophical, maybe just mental approach to the game I'm calling it? Become a stalwart. Now, I. We've always been of the opinion you just play fantasy the way you want to play. Right. Like whatever's the most fun for you. Now, for me, it is the pinnacle of fun when I win. It is the pinnacle of fun when I have Won the league.

[Jason Moore]

I think a lot of people agree with you.

[Mike Wright]

Al Borland himself. Has it been fun for you to have won the league of record?

[Jason Moore]

There's the trophy.

[Mike Wright]

It's been pretty great. Yeah. So that is. Look.

[Jason Moore]

What are you keeping that under the desk for?

[Mike Wright]

I think Josh keeps moving it under the desk. Thank you, Josh.

[Jason Moore]

That makes sense.

[Mike Wright]

Thank you. But I'm going to talk about being playing the game in a way that is trying to remove the emotional overreactions to lock in, to become a stalwart. There are two types of situations that really distort decision making in fantasy. And one of them is the rose colored glasses and what we think and want to happen, what we want to happen as opposed to what maybe logic or is sitting in front of us should happen. Or also just like the burns, the fantasy burns, the hyper avoidance of certain players because while we don't like that team as much or maybe we just, that player hurt us in the past. And so what I think is the most advantageous way to have the most fun is to develop your inner stalwart. To be able to have an even handed approach to fantasy that lets go of some of those extreme emotional reactions, to be able to dig in and win. Because what happens is, I mean there's a lot of examples of this that go well beyond, you know, your last season burns. It's also emotional attachment to the players you draft. Right. Like we all go and we build a roster. We spend all this time in the off season with the draft kit. You build this perfect team. And so because of that there's an emotional attachment that happens.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. Especially when they win for you.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah. And so sometimes you're unwilling to trade a player away based on the objective realities in front of you or maybe trade for a player that you thought was bad. That's performing like that's probably the hardest one is to buy. Like, oh, I knew that player was going to stink. They have three or four good weeks. You're like, nah, I still believe they stink. Well, sometimes the reality is different. And every year there are certain players that we go in with maybe excitement or a bad taste in our mouth. Like Josh Jacobs after the Las Vegas year. It was like so easy to go into that season thinking this guy might be toast. But the NFL told us that wasn't the case when Green Bay paid him all that money and his ADP ends up dropping and he ends up the RB5 or in reverse like CJ Stroud. Do we all not, we all want CJ Stroud to be the next great thing.

[Jason Moore]

Yes, we do.

[Mike Wright]

That rookie season was amazing. And yet Mike kept coming back to the fact that QB11 season was like riddled with, you know, really bad performances, occasional great ones. And then last year he went so high in drafts, ends up the QB18. You were locked in on him early in the season thinking it would all be great. That is an emotional overreaction. That is something that you just want to will into being. And throughout the course of a season, you just need to try your very best to look at things with the least emotional reaction possible. Again, fantasy is about fun. If you want to find your perfect balance of emotional reaction and fandom with, you know, kind of being objective, I don't care how you mix that vial, you know what I mean? It's fine however you want to do it. That makes it the most fun. But I do think the way that gives you the best opportunity to win is trying to be disconnected emotionally from the players on your roster and willing to trade them. When you go name your team after a player that you drafted, you are not going to trade that player. You're not going to trade that player or give up on him.

[Jason Moore]

You have to change your name because.

[Mike Wright]

You got to change.

[Andy Holloway]

Can you trade the name? Could you say, I'm going to trade this player and yes, namesake.

[Mike Wright]

That's a great idea. Okay, it should. If you trade the player. If you're willing to trade the player, you should always trade the name with him.

[Andy Holloway]

But that would be really confusing. Halfway through the season, all of a sudden that team that's true with that name is like, wait, I'm playing him again. No, you're not.

[Mike Wright]

No, I played him for the first time.

[Andy Holloway]

No, I played.

[Mike Wright]

I played him last week and it was a really roller coaster situation with like Mark Andrews last year.

[Andy Holloway]

Very emotional.

[Mike Wright]

At some point in time, I did give up. Right. Which kind of proved to be the wrong decision. But after week one, when the entire earth was overreacting to Isaiah, likely you went back, you watched the film, you calmed down after the game, you saw the opportunities that didn't quite work. And at that point in time, you know, we came out here and said, look, this looks like a situation that's going to be fine. Don't panic now. Eventually I panic. Eventually I panic.

[Jason Moore]

Well, because he rewarded your confidence, your confidence. Andy with 4 for 51. And then we were, then we were safe. It was two games of zeros.

[Mike Wright]

Once the double goose happened, I definitely dipped.

[Jason Moore]

I don't. We didn't blame anyone for bailing Then.

[Mike Wright]

But basically we just get over attached to players emotionally. We don't trade them, we don't sit them fast enough. That's another thing. You're like, oh, this will be the week that they do the thing I thought they do in the off season that maybe isn't really a reality anymore. But I think they'll do it because I believe they do it. So become a stalwart as much as you can to make the best, most objective decisions.

[Andy Holloway]

Number six. My next tip is to avoid double onesies early in your draft. In fantasy football, we use the term positional advantage all the time. We're describing a quarterback or a tight end that puts you above your league mates at that position, right? Lamar Jackson, he was the quarterback one. He was better by two points over the quarterback to Brock Bowers who was a late round draft pick as the Titan won last year. He was awesome. And you know, for years it was Travis Kelsey and Josh Allen. It feels so good to leave your draft stacked at those positions to grab, you know, this year. Brock Bowers, Trey McBride, you know, Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Jaden Daniels. These guys are awesome and I love them and I'm willing to take every single player I mentioned. But I want to talk about the positional disadvantage that it puts you at at the more important positions if you double up on the onesie position. The opportunity cost, whenever you draft any one of these guys is something significant that you've got to factor in. If you take Brock Bowers, you are leaving Josh Jacobs, Bucky Irving, Jonathan Taylor, A.J. brown and Drake London on the table, you are, you are taking them off of your roster. If you take Trey McBride, you are leaving Kyron Williams, Chase Brown, JSN T. Higgins.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, I did the McBride thing in our last mock and I, I did not like what that did to my roster.

[Andy Holloway]

It would be hard. If you get Lamar Jackson or Josh Allen where they're going, that's another Josh Jacobs, Bucky, Jonathan Taylor. If you grab Jaden Daniels, you're leaving Marion Hampton, Garrett Wilson, Marvin Harrison. So here's the thing that I'm recommending. If you take one of those guys, any, any one of those guys, I'll throw burrow in there as well. You're going to be fine. If you take two, you're really going to be wrecked. The what happens if you take two? Let's just have, you know, a situation. I took Bowers in the second and Burrow in the fourth. That means my running back two or my wide receiver two is going to be one of these guys because I've got to get multiple of those. My second starting running back will be Isaiah Pacheco or Aaron Jones or DeAndre Swift by ADP. That's going to be in my starting lineup. My second wide receiver is going to be, you know, Xavier Worthy, Zay Flowers, Chris Olave. It's going to be hard when you're. You just can't double up those early round onesie positions because your depth at the far more important position to have depth at when you start multiples plus a flex is very difficult. Now, I think that if you take one of those guys, you know, there are people, there are running backs and wide receivers we really like in rounds five and six that might slip to you. You know, you might, you might grab Trayvon Henderson OR Ted Arrow McMillan if you're going for the rookies. If Joe Mixon falls for a while and he's your running back too, you can probably, you know, be fine with that. It's just tough to try to bank on two of these very rare round five and six wide receivers that we really like to drop to you to where your running backs and wide receivers are good. So you, you have the positional advantage at one position that you don't need as much and you sacrifice the far more important position. So I would recommend to everybody avoid the double. You will be behind your league mates at the two most important positions if you double tap onesie positions before the sixth round.

[Mike Wright]

No, it's, it's good advice and it is very hard to resist sometimes. Those are big names, big players, most important positions. A lot of the time grabbing that quarterback name.

[Andy Holloway]

I love grabbing one of those guys. As soon as the other guys on the board are like, I've got a lot of question marks on, on these names. And if there's one of those guys left that are studs that, you know, there's no question about, grab one of them then and then keep filling out your running backs and wide receivers.

[Mike Wright]

All right, we'll take a quick break and then count down the top five tips and tricks on today's show. All right, it's time to jump back.

[Jason Moore]

Into it, starting with number five, tip number five. We're going to be talking about anticipating offensive system tear jumps.

[Mike Wright]

Okay. That's a lot of words, Mike.

[Jason Moore]

Yes.

[Mike Wright]

Over 75,000 words right there.

[Jason Moore]

The NFL is full of parody. Teams jump from worst to first. It happens every single year. And offenses jump from bad to competent, sometimes even a jump up to a really good, strong offense. This, it happens every year when it happens, it feels like it comes out of nowhere because pretty much for this to happen, the team had to have been bad, you know, and it's like, well, that team was bad last year. There's no way they can turn it around. Lo and behold, it just happens every single year. In fact, at least three teams jump 13 or more total touchdowns from the previous year. And that is, that is over the last decade that we get three teams that make a very significant jump. Yeah, the Washington commanders, right, they were horrifically bad. They, they overhaul everything. They bring in Jaden Daniels, they hit on that. And now we want all the Washington commanders on our fantasy football teams. So it's about trying to project which teams, which of the, you know, at least three teams are going to make that jump. So look at last year, were they dreadful? Okay, well that's, that's the first check mark. But then it's figure out what happened last, you know, Tua. Last year, the Miami Dolphins, who had been a very prolific offense, two of misses, you know, half the year, and all of a sudden that team looks bad. And we have bad feelings about the Miami Dolphins a couple years ago, you know, like it's happened to the Cowboys with Dak Prescott, he's gotten hurt. Then the Cowboys look like crap. They come back or Dak comes back, look who's a high powered offense. Again, things like strength of schedule, San Francisco, per Warren Sharp's strength of schedule analysis. It just looks so easy and obviously it won't be as easy as it looks, but there are some clear path. There is a clear path on there and then this is a big one. Offensive coordinator change four. So last year we had, you know, a good amount of teams jump up and four of the five from last year, it was an offensive coordinator change. And you can even factor in if you want to say, hey, Aaron Rodgers is kind of a four of the five jumps. Yeah, four of the five jumps from last year. And if you want to say Aaron Rodgers is part of the OC of the jets last year, that would be five of five. So in fact, over the last three years, 10 of the 11 teams that tear jumped had a new OC or a new play caller that year. So it's looking at the teams who are bad and then this year, who do we have new play callers or new ocs, the, the best candidates for this, you know, and I have one team in mind.

[Mike Wright]

I wonder if you'll mention them or not.

[Jason Moore]

And, and the thing about that is when there's, there's Players from these teams, it's baked into their average draft position of that player's on a bad team. And so they're. They go later in draft, this is what helps you find guys who are really going to help you win. Not just the early picks, but the later guys. So this year, the teams that have we got new player callers, new OCs that are interesting that could make this jump of over 13 touchdowns to really help your fantasy team. We got Chicago with Ben Johnson, that's the obvious one. Dallas, they changed things up. They got Clayton Adams at the OC position. The Vegas Raiders, you got Chip Kelly in there who has given us historically really good fantasy players in the past, like New England. Hey, we got Josh McDaniel. I mean, he's back. We're back, baby. And then in Cleveland, Tommy Reese. So we have.

[Mike Wright]

You didn't say the team I was thinking about.

[Jason Moore]

This is me to mention it. Yeah. So I'm. Because you got to. First it has to be a bottom 10 team. Like is it Tennessee?

[Mike Wright]

No.

[Jason Moore]

Oh, okay. Give it to me.

[Mike Wright]

Jacksonville.

[Jason Moore]

Sure.

[Mike Wright]

With Liam Cohen.

[Jason Moore]

Yes. That's.

[Mike Wright]

And the bad vibes and the fact that you had the number two pick, which you know, Jacksonville sitting there going like, well, there are not good feelings around that team. There's good feelings around Brian Thomas Jr. But we're talking about a backfield we don't love and all of that. But like Liam Cohen should be able to do something special. You know, that's one situation that jumped out to me.

[Andy Holloway]

So I love that call because Travis ETN is left for dead in drafts right now. He's a bum. He's worthless. It's Bashell Tootin that everybody wants now this year or Tank Bigsby. And you know, Trevor Lawrence isn't good, but if he brings in a good system and Trevor Lawrence is an above average quarterback, that could be good. A very, very good offense. They have weapons there.

[Jason Moore]

But so just, you know, the summary is don't get over concerned about how bad a team was last year. Look at the team, look at the changes that they have made. Did they bring in a new oc? Because teams move up and every single time they move up we go, whoa, didn't see that. Who could have possibly seen that? It happens every year, man.

[Mike Wright]

So you have to try to find your best shot at predicting those situations. No, it makes sense. All right, moving on.

[Andy Holloway]

Number four.

[Mike Wright]

All right, number four. My final tip of this top ten, it is doing the tight end dance. All right. And it kind of piggybacks on what Jason was talking about with the onesie positions. If you don't end up with one of those, you know, the Bowers, McBride, Kittle, which in most situations, you know, Bowers and McBride. I think the way we view them is that they are fair and appropriate picks at their draft cost. But they do cost you something, right, in terms of the. What you're trading. Jason mentioned the names earlier. George Kittle's kind of been the favorite of our group. But if you look at our value scout tool, and if you don't know what that is, we have built it out, added it to the UDK this year. What it does is it takes our rankings and our true value of a player where we think they really belong in drafts, their true value, and compares it to your platform's average draft position because your league mates are drafting espn, Sleeper, Yahoo, NFL, whatever they're drafting, and they're seeing those default lists, and those default lists are based on where those players are going on those platforms. And so our tool compares our true value with those platforms and kind of says, hey, we think this player's worth maybe five or six, seven picks to be higher in the draft or lower. But when you look at how we view the tight end position, we basically look at Bowers, McBride and Kittle. Pretty much their true value is about where they're being drafted, but beyond that, at the tight end position, the TLDR, the summary, it's like we don't think that the LaPortas, the Hawkinsons are worth where they're going in drafts because of the other options that you have at tight end later on. And so it can feel a little uncomfortable going into your fantasy season without a true, you know, monster tight end, Bowers, McBride, Kittle, it can feel a little uncomfortable, but people need to recognize that. Doing the tight end dance, streaming the tight end position where, look, every week we get on and we tell you streaming defenses that we think are good options. This week you can stream the kicker position every week, but tight end overall, it really can be pieced together in, I think, a more predictive way. Yes, because the defensive numbers that we start to get four or five, six weeks into the season, you really see what teams are vulnerable against tight ends.

[Andy Holloway]

It's a scheme thing. Some, some, some teams, their personnel and the scheme that they play just allows that area of the field to get eaten alive. And so the offense that faces it targets that because it's just good football and it happens every week. It's, it's very predictable in a way that it it's not with the other positions.

[Jason Moore]

We behind the scenes look of the fantasy footballers. One of our in season tools is the stream finder where you know, instead of just a strength of schedule for one particular team, we look at which teams are getting beaten up by a particular position. And every week we do a starts of the week segment and every week it's our One of the starts of the week at the tight end position is going to be that tight end who's playing the team who gets beat up by tight ends. And it works just magically over the course of the season.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah. And I think part of that is just like okay, if a team's weak against wide receivers, well, every team starts a bunch of wide receivers. If a team's weak against running backs, there's a lot of committees. If you're weak against the tight end, there's normally one targeted pass catching tight end. It makes it easier to predict. And the other aspect that you can look at, you know, beyond the defense they're playing, when you're looking at streaming tight ends, look at the metrics that matter. That's a series we've been doing with the Just the Tips weekend miniseries. But if you look at the what's the most important thing for tight ends? Routes, receptions, targets, yards after catch. And so you can start to look at increased opportunities. A good example of this last year, if you remember the show I was doing this. I was in the position to stream tight ends. I was on the way to a championship game against Al Borland, our champion now. But the path to the championship game went with. It was like Britain strange all of a sudden. Had a bunch of opportunities in the offense. Chiga conquo from weeks 12 through 17, elite usage in the offense. He was 25 plus routes per game, six plus targets per game. All of a sudden he was winning people titles. Number seven tight end, number three tight end. And then almost nine fantasy points in the championship week. Not a bad week. Targets 10, 11, 7 out of nowhere, undrafted, not picked up on waiver wires. You could just grab them off of the waiver wire in week 15. This happens more predictably at tight end. And so doing that tight end dance, if you don't get one of the top guys or you don't want to spend that cost, you don't want to take McBride at the expense of Chase Brown. This is the way to do it. It is more predictable and you can find those opportunities this year. I'm telling you some names to pay attention to. I'm going to Whisper one of them.

[Jason Moore]

Oh, Kyle Pitts.

[Andy Holloway]

I knew it.

[Mike Wright]

And then I'm going to mention, I'm.

[Jason Moore]

Going to mention a man has become a meme.

[Mike Wright]

He has become a meme and he's like still like 16 years old. Now you're a meme. But another name like you talk about the mystery bag. Mason Taylor is going to start. He's back at practice. Yeah, Mason Taylor is going to start for the jets from week one. A rookie tight end, Elijah Arroyo in Seattle. Maybe chicka conquo again. Jason mentioned him the other day. You can do the tight end dance and win. So that's my final tip.

[Andy Holloway]

Number three. This tip is really important for who are listening right now and about to draft in two weeks, which is everybody. This is beware overdrafting preseason hype machines. Oh boy, it don't work.

[Mike Wright]

Oh boy, it doesn't work.

[Andy Holloway]

The preseason. Look, we, we come in and we do the preseason power up and we tell you what we're seeing and the depth chart. Oh man. But that train gets out of control.

[Mike Wright]

We like the hype trains.

[Andy Holloway]

That train was the Abdullah Express. How dare you. The boy, that train really keeps going.

[Mike Wright]

I guess I got to stop the train.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, you can't.

[Mike Wright]

Al Borland's looking at me.

[Jason Moore]

Stop the train.

[Andy Holloway]

Yes, you stop. Trains can't. Anyways, you know, in the early days of the podcast, we had the Amir Abdullah's cut heard round the world. The one jump cut that lofted him up to like the fourth round because it was awesome. It was unbelievable.

[Mike Wright]

But it turns out preseason play, it.

[Andy Holloway]

Was a preseason play and it didn't actually changed things more recently. Do you guys remember when Marquez, Calloway and the Saints, he had a couple touchdowns in preseason, went all the way up to the eighth round the year after Damian Pierce. I mean I was out on him all off season going into 2022 and then he had such a good preseason and I was like, dang. I guess, am I wrong? I guess I was wrong. And then he was a bust pick in the fifth round the next year. Kenny Pickett. Oh, that Steelers perfect offense.

[Mike Wright]

Oh, what a pre season.

[Andy Holloway]

Five preseason drives, five touchdowns. Then two full seasons of real football later and he, Kenny Pickett has the worst touchdown, second worst touchdown rate of all time.

[Mike Wright]

That one's crazy.

[Andy Holloway]

Last year, Caleb Williams, he had this insane off balance out of the pocket, deep completion to Roma Dunes A. Do you guys remember that? I hope you don't because this is an actual tweet from the Bears. This is an actual tweet from the Bears.

[Jason Moore]

Oh, it is nobody.

[Andy Holloway]

This, they said nobody will remember your salary, how busy you were, how many hours you worked. People will remember Caleb Williams to Roma Dunes in the third preseason game of 2024.

[Jason Moore]

Okay, we don't remember our job. Look, the Bear, the Bears fans have been upset. I'm not completely sure why. The way that we talk about the Bears because we, we want them to be good. We like their skill players. Everything is just is Caleb Williams good enough? Okay, this, that's not helping. This is not helping your case. They were talk to the social media people.

[Andy Holloway]

They were a hype machine in third last year. It didn't work. It also works in reverse. You know Jamar Chase, his rookie preseason dealt with drops through training camp and had one bad preseason drive. He was done. You know Genty and Caleb Johnson this year. Oh he's.

[Jason Moore]

He right.

[Andy Holloway]

He's dead. His career is over because he, you know, he dropped a pass in preseason.

[Jason Moore]

And he's holding to it.

[Mike Wright]

But how about that?

[Andy Holloway]

My point is, I was saying that.

[Mike Wright]

His career is certainly not over one preseason game.

[Andy Holloway]

That's, that is my point. It's like do not overreact to this preseason. Have fun, watch football. Try to take some glimmers of maybe some second third string players who seem like they're going to crack into the starting roster. Maybe that matters for your late.

[Mike Wright]

Oh my gosh. Please ignore stat lines in the preseason.

[Andy Holloway]

Oh yeah.

[Mike Wright]

The only thing I look at genuinely is the athleticism of a player and how they look compared to other NFL players I can remember like Julius Thomas preseason with Peyton Manning in Denver, hyper athletic tight end. Nobody had heard of him. You start to see some plays yards after the catch, you're like wow, that player looks special on an NFL field. That's the stuff to pay attention to.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah. And if you look over time all the things that really preseason let us. I mean you're bringing up Julius Thomas. That's a great, that's a great example. I remember. I will never forget how important that preseason was. What year was that?

[Mike Wright]

That was probably 20.

[Andy Holloway]

When was Julius Thomas breakup exactly? Like we got to dig deep for the real positive. We got a win from this preseason glimmer.

[Mike Wright]

Although you can't talk Mike out of Isaac Tislaw.

[Jason Moore]

No, you cannot.

[Mike Wright]

Because the one caveat here is if they're on your team.

[Jason Moore]

Right.

[Mike Wright]

You're on your preseason super matters.

[Andy Holloway]

Well that's great because then you can't avoid this tip which is you can't overdraft them.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, I already got Him.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, you already got him. You're good.

[Mike Wright]

That's a good point.

[Andy Holloway]

Now just get hyped. That's fine. Just don't overdraft based on preseason.

[Jason Moore]

You can ask Brian. My Tesla hype is. Oh, so you are inappropriate.

[Mike Wright]

So you are like fully hoping like Jameson Williams leaves due to contractual.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, next year.

[Mike Wright]

Next year.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, yeah. No, no, I want Jameson Williams this year.

[Mike Wright]

No, I know, but I can. I know already what you're hoping for. Yeah, a departure to another team.

[Jason Moore]

Number two dynasty is the long game, man. Gotta, you gotta see a path a year in front.

[Mike Wright]

Your team doesn't need any more players.

[Jason Moore]

All right, we're gonna call this one mix and match. And this is honestly a newer that over the last couple of years, you know, I've, I've become more open to it and to the fact of like. No, now I. Not just open to the idea. I think it's a good idea and it's in a single quarterback league. Be willing to draft two quarterbacks in your league. And this is more, this is more of a tip for a. If I draft a stud quarterback, I'm not doing this, but if I wait on my quarterback, then I'm. Look, I'm real, real open to drafting a second quarterback. Because you're trying to find a breakout guy, you know, and in the, in the past it had been easier to find those guys late. Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jaden Daniels, Josh Allen. It was like, especially when they run, it's an easier thing for fantasy football to see that player really paying off where they're being drafted. But if I'm waiting on a quarterback, I still want to, I want to take multiple shots at finding that breakout quarterback. Because as the, as the rounds go on, you know, of course we want to find the super late round running back or wide receiver who's really going to step up and make a difference for your team. But listen to this. Last year, of the 36 non defense or kicker players taken in rounds 13 to 15, you know, essentially the last three rounds for most, most leagues out there, only a handful of running backs, we're talking five players were valuable at any part of the season after week one.

[Mike Wright]

If you were drafted beyond round 13.

[Jason Moore]

Yes.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, that's like a, that's like a very low. That's not a mystery bag, that's a bag of poop.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. So last year, Jacoby, Rico, Jerry Judy.

[Andy Holloway]

Josh Downs, at best, you're hoping for some corn in that. You know, it's like, that's it. Nasty.

[Jason Moore]

So there's at least something in.

[Andy Holloway]

I don't know what. That's the five way.

[Mike Wright]

I don't know why you had to get in on the bag joke with some. Just let it go.

[Jason Moore]

So these players in going in those rounds often, more often than not are just nothingness. But it's.

[Mike Wright]

You cut them, you end up cutting them for free agent pick.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. For you for waiver day. Your first waiver which it's nice to have a player I can see in week one. Is something going to happen? Nope. Okay, just give me someone who I know is going to do something. But taking a second shot at some of these later round quarterbacks because the names are extremely enticing. These are, these are quarterbacks who are going, you know, in double digit rounds. Justin Herbert, Purdy, Dak, Caleb Jordan, Love, Justin Fields, Stroud and Drake May, like of that list. It would not surprise me to see at least three or four of those guys inside the top 12 at the end of the year. And so instead of a huge grab bag of like veterans going in the 13th round, Justin Fields is a running quarterback who has given you fantasy success in the past. Drake May, Jason loves him. He's a, he rushes to more than you actually realize. Dak historically when healthy, a stud. A stud for fantasy football. So I'm willing to take, if I'm going later with my quarterback, I want to pair two of these guys instead of a running back that I'm going to cut after week one.

[Mike Wright]

No, it's, it is interesting and it gives you. I've seen some trade opportunities born out of that strategy before because let's say both your guys hit. I mean you do have leverage. Somebody's got a disappointing quarterback. There's going to be disappointments in the first few weeks.

[Jason Moore]

I mean exactly what you know is of the quarterbacks who are drafted as the top 10 at the position, multiple guys in that top 10 are going to fail.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, no, it happens every single year. All right, we got one left.

[Andy Holloway]

Number one.

[Mike Wright]

All right, I'm going to title this one. This is the one we all share. And it's good advice. It's called wiping the slate clean. Throw a little quote in here, guys. See if you can get deep with me here. The past is a place of reference, not a place of residence.

[Andy Holloway]

Oh man, I like that. That's a little too deep.

[Jason Moore]

A little too deep for the show that just talks about corn and poop.

[Andy Holloway]

I feel like what I would say instead of that quote, I would say something more along the lines of like Upgrade from toilet paper to a bidet.

[Mike Wright]

Thank you.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, that's what this should be.

[Mike Wright]

Really.

[Andy Holloway]

Wipe it clean.

[Mike Wright]

Wipe it clean.

[Jason Moore]

More of a wash it clean, but, yeah, it's okay.

[Mike Wright]

He's close. Let go of the pain. Let go of the burns. Let go of the resentment. Let go of the frustrations. Let go of the bitterness. Let go of the baggage. Let go of the what ifs. Oh, my gosh, the what ifs.

[Jason Moore]

Free yourself of the burden, my friends. Free.

[Mike Wright]

Your last year is gone. Right? We've learned our lessons. We've done our reflection. That was back in February and March. It is time to move forward. Don't let any of those old burns hold you back from good choices in this year's draft.

[Andy Holloway]

You're just telling Mike to draft CMC at 100.

[Mike Wright]

I think I accidentally did. Look, there is one.

[Jason Moore]

Don't got to tell me nothing.

[Mike Wright]

There is one person.

[Jason Moore]

I've been here.

[Mike Wright]

One person in your draft that should be bringing up the past, Mike, and that is the champion. Your job is to make everybody else look backwards. The champ's job is to make them look backwards and bow to you. Everybody else needs to wipe the slate clean. Forget that it existed. Honestly, I've almost forgotten that I was in the title game against al. It's just not. I don't even remember who won that game, honestly.

[Jason Moore]

That's right.

[Mike Wright]

I don't even know.

[Jason Moore]

Because you don't reside in the past.

[Mike Wright]

I don't reside in the past. So wipe the slate clean. And it's a brand new year. You are currently undefeated Foot Clan on the season.

[Jason Moore]

Oh, man. I pulled up because I hadn't watched yet, but I pulled up Hard Knocks.

[Mike Wright]

Oh, yeah.

[Jason Moore]

Last night.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, I was meaning to do that yesterday.

[Jason Moore]

I was watching, watching. You know, it's just, you know, the sleep show. Have it on. Wife's getting ready in the. The bathroom for sleep. She walks out. She's like, oh, no.

[Andy Holloway]

She heard the horns.

[Jason Moore]

She just like. That means the season is starting.

[Mike Wright]

The music lets her know exactly what's happening.

[Jason Moore]

I was like, yeah. You hear this? Oh, man. That theme song. Oh, man.

[Mike Wright]

So she's remembering the past.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, it was. It was. Oh, no.

[Andy Holloway]

That's amazing.

[Mike Wright]

Well, it's your job, Mike. You have no choice.

[Jason Moore]

I know.

[Mike Wright]

And it's wonderful. All right, mock draft episode tomorrow. We got something special in store for that. We got my guys on Friday. Official. My guys delivered to you on Friday.

[Jason Moore]

Are we locked?

[Andy Holloway]

We're locked.

[Mike Wright]

We're locked for now.

[Andy Holloway]

And I feel really good about all nine of ours.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, no, this. I was saying this is the first year I've kind of felt like. I mean, we make them individually. Sometimes you're gonna have differences of opinion. I feel pretty good about the group, so. Looking forward to it. Hey, this is Bri, Andy's wife.

[Jason Moore]

Oh, are we going to the bath?

[Mike Wright]

Biggest congratulations to Al's doing what you said. Okay.

[Andy Holloway]

He's bringing up the fact that he's the champ and I was in it.

[Mike Wright]

Oh, we did forget. I mean, we didn't. We didn't call this out, but we do have a special guest today.

[Andy Holloway]

Oh, that's right. Keanu couldn't make it on yesterday.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, I mean, we've talked about it. We've got our see.

[Jason Moore]

And this is to end.

[Mike Wright]

We've got our arch rival, you know, the new height show, and we kind of called them out because we passed them in the sports rankings. And that's what you do. Like I said, you know, you kind of got a gloat when you pass somebody. And they. They were kind of scrambling. They were desperate. They're like, I don't know what to do. We got to get our ranking up. And so they decided, I guess, based on us, to have a musical artist. Who was it again?

[Jason Moore]

Taylor Swift. Well, you know who we got on our show?

[Mike Wright]

We've got Taylor Swift.

[Andy Holloway]

That's right, baby. We had. We had her on our show first.

[Mike Wright]

That's right. Taylor Swift is back.

[Andy Holloway]

I mean, hey, guys, that's not. AI for all the YouTube out there.

[Mike Wright]

My 13th album to announce on today's show.

[Jason Moore]

Oh, man.

[Mike Wright]

So very special guest today. We had to. We had to get back up on.

[Andy Holloway]

The chest, only there on YouTube.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, yeah, that didn't work well on the podcast. All right, that'll do it for today's show. Thank you for joining us. Avail yourself of the UDK ultimate draft kit.com back with more shows tomorrow. Take care, everybody.

[Jason Moore]

Goodbye.

[Andy Holloway]

Thank you for listening to another episode of the Fantasy Fantasy Footballers podcast. Join our fantasy football community on jointhefoot.com and follow us on Twitter the FFballers.