AFC East Breakdown + Best Draft Spot, Bragging Rights - Fantasy Football Podcast

Summary

Podcast Summary: Fantasy Footballers - AFC East Breakdown + Best Draft Spot, Bragging Rights

Episode Title: AFC East Breakdown + Best Draft Spot, Bragging Rights
Release Date: July 14, 2020
Hosts: Andy Holloway, Jason Moore, Mike "The Fantasy Hitman" Wright
Duration: Approximately 62 minutes

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Introduction

In this episode of Fantasy Footballers - Fantasy Football Podcast, the expert trio—Andy Holloway, Jason Moore, and Mike Wright—delve into a comprehensive AFC East Breakdown while also addressing strategic questions about the best draft spot and securing bragging rights in fantasy leagues. Released on July 14, 2020, this episode offers valuable insights for fantasy football enthusiasts looking to dominate their upcoming drafts and stay ahead of the competition.

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Best Draft Spot: Listener’s Question

Timestamp: [03:46]
A listener from New Jersey, Steven, posed an intriguing question: having won the losers' bracket, what draft position should he choose as a consolation prize? The hosts offer diverse perspectives on optimal draft positions based on player valuations and team needs.

• Jason Moore advocates for the top spots, emphasizing the value of elite running backs like Christian McCaffrey or Saquon Barkley:

  "I want Christian McCaffrey or Saquon. I would probably pick the number one pick. Just get McCaffrey, get it out of the way."
  [04:19]

• Andy Holloway echoes the preference for early picks, highlighting the strategic advantage of securing high-ceiling players:

  "If you think there are three guys in that category, then go with the lowest. If you think there's five guys in that category, go with the lowest so that you can turn around in the second round with the best odds of getting a high value player."
  [06:18]

• Mike Wright supports the selection of top-tier running backs but is open to strategic positioning based on the draft's progression:

  "Zeke is still in the top tier for me, so I'm fine with the top three pick. But if you have your choice and you really favor one of those running backs, then just take the first pick."
  [06:03]

The discussion underscores the importance of aligning draft positions with team strategy and player value, advising listeners to consider the depth and strength of available players when making their selection.

---

AFC East Division Breakdown

1. New England Patriots

Timestamp: [12:33]
The Patriots enter the season with a 12-4 record from the previous year, a strong defense, and significant changes in their offense following Tom Brady's departure. The acquisition of Cam Newton as the new quarterback sparks debate among the hosts.

• Mike Wright praises Bill Belichick’s adaptability, expressing optimism about the Patriots' offensive restructuring:

  "I'm very excited to see what he can do with Cam Newton. I'm projecting Cam Newton as a starter, but I'd also say I still believe in this team when we thought it was going to be Jared Stidham."
  [14:09]

• Jason Moore highlights the potential for Sony Michel to emerge as a valuable running back in the revamped offense:

  "Cam helps me believe in that and I also believe in Cam Newton. I think he's going to be pretty good for fantasy. He has never not been good for fantasy when he's on the field."
  [16:04]

The Patriots' offense is expected to undergo significant changes, with a focus on leveraging Cam Newton's dual-threat capabilities to enhance fantasy football value.

2. Buffalo Bills

Timestamp: [28:42]
The Bills, finishing last season with a 10-6 record, made pivotal additions like Stefon Diggs and rookie running back Zach Moss. Josh Allen continues to develop as the team's quarterback, raising high fantasy expectations.

• Jason Moore analyzes Stefon Diggs' efficiency and volume, noting his historical performance:

  "He was the fourth player since 1992 to have 1100 yards on fewer than 100 targets."
  [30:14]

• Mike Wright discusses the potential resurgence of Diggs despite concerns about Josh Allen's passing accuracy:

  "Stefan Diggs is, I think, has a target market share of the team. That renders the other guys pretty much useless if you are trying to predict which weeks to start them."
  [30:46]

The discussion emphasizes Stefon Diggs' high efficiency and the strategic value of securing him in fantasy drafts, while also addressing the uncertainties surrounding Josh Allen's consistency.

3. New York Jets

Timestamp: [38:07]
The Jets concluded the last season with a disappointing 7-9 record, underperforming despite some promising additions. The offense remains a concern, particularly with quarterbacks Sam Darnold and Ryan Fitzpatrick.

• Andy Holloway critiques head coach Adam Gase’s decisions, stressing the challenges of projecting player performance:

  "Any fantasy football bet on a New York jet involves the variable of Adam Gaze's stupidity."
  [41:46]

• Jason Moore dismisses the prospects of betting on the Jets’ running backs, citing inconsistencies and limited opportunities:

  "I'm not going to bet on these Jets. That's my final answer."
  [46:44]

The hosts express skepticism about the Jets’ offensive improvements, cautioning fantasy players against relying on their key players due to coaching inefficiencies and inconsistent player performances.

4. Miami Dolphins

Timestamp: [47:42]
Last season's 5-11 record sees the Dolphins making significant defensive upgrades and securing Tua Tagovailoa as their new quarterback. The introduction of Chan Gailey as offensive coordinator brings hope for enhanced offensive strategies.

• Mike Wright highlights Chan Gailey’s successful history with quarterbacks, suggesting potential fantasy benefits:

  "Devonte Parker torched. Who is it Gilmore? Or perhaps you were talking about week seven when at Buffalo. Ryan Fitzpatrick was the number seven fantasy quarterback on the week."
  [50:02]

• Jason Moore discusses the uncertainty surrounding Tua Tagovailoa's consistency and the potential impact on fantasy projections:

  "He's a passer first and many would believe he's a better passer than Joe Burrow."
  [56:13]

The Dolphins' revamped defense and new offensive leadership are expected to boost their competitiveness, but uncertainties around Tua's performance present mixed signals for fantasy players.

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Key Insights and Conclusions

• Draft Strategy: Early draft positions are critical for securing high-impact players, particularly elite running backs. Flexibility and strategic positioning can maximize team potential.

• Team Evaluations:

  • The Patriots are seen as a team in transition with potential upside due to Cam Newton’s versatility.
  • The Bills harness Stefon Diggs' efficiency, making him a valuable fantasy asset despite defensive concerns.
  • The Jets pose risks due to offensive instability and questionable coaching decisions, making them a less attractive option for fantasy drafts.
  • The Dolphins offer a mix of revamped defense and a promising quarterback, but Tua Tagovailoa's consistency remains a wildcard in fantasy projections.

• Player Projections:

  • Sony Michel for the Patriots and Stefon Diggs for the Bills are highlighted as must-draft players due to their floor and ceiling performances.
  • Sam Darnold and Ryan Fitzpatrick are viewed skeptically for the Jets, advising caution for fantasy owners.
  • Tua Tagovailoa and defensive players for the Dolphins present both opportunities and uncertainties, necessitating careful consideration.

Notable Quotes

• Jason Moore on Draft Positions:

  "I would probably pick the number one pick. Just get McCaffrey, get it out of the way."
  [04:19]

• Andy Holloway on Evaluating Draft Spots:

  "If you think there are three guys in that category, then go with the lowest. If you think there's five guys in that category, go with the lowest so that you can turn around in the second round with the best odds of getting a high value player."
  [06:18]

• Mike Wright on Patriots’ Offensive Changes:

  "I'm very excited to see what he can do with Cam Newton."
  [14:09]

• Jason Moore on Stefon Diggs:

  "He is a very good player, but his production could still end up there in terms of total yardage."
  [30:14]

• Andy Holloway on Jets’ Coaching:

  "Any fantasy football bet on a New York jet involves the variable of Adam Gaze's stupidity."
  [41:46]

• Mike Wright on Dolphins’ Offensive Potential:

  "Devonte Parker is such a value in drafts right now because you can get him late, not mid rounds, late rounds."
  [25:53]

---

Conclusion

This episode offers a deep dive into the AFC East, providing valuable fantasy football insights and draft strategies. The hosts emphasize the importance of securing high-impact players early, while also cautioning against overvaluing teams like the Jets due to their offensive uncertainties. With detailed analysis of team dynamics and player performances, listeners are equipped to make informed decisions to enhance their fantasy football rosters.

For those seeking to refine their draft strategies and stay updated on team performances, Fantasy Footballers remains an essential resource, offering a blend of expert analysis, strong opinions, and actionable advice to help secure league victories.

---

Note: Listener votes for podcast awards and promotional segments have been excluded to focus solely on content-rich discussions.

Transcript

[Andy Holloway]

Foot Clan. Before we start today's show, I want to remind you about the best UDK ever. New and improved features in this year's Ultimate Draft Kit. You do not want to miss them. You can access them right now by going to ultimatedraftkit.com and once again, you get the entire suite of tools. Expert picks, research tools, projected stats, player profiles, player profile videos. Everything you need to dominate your upcoming draft. And you also get it on mobile as a part of the Ultimate Draft Kit. Head over there right now. Ultimate Draft Kit.com.

[Jason Moore]

Welcome to the Fantasy Footballers podcast with your hosts, Andy Holloway, Jason Moore and Mike Wright.

[Andy Holloway]

Welcome in. Back with you, Jason Moore, Mike the Fantasy Hitman Wright. I'm Andy Holloway. We are the fantasy Footballers. Back with you for Tuesday, July 14th AFC East Breakdown episode. The days keep. They keep going by.

[Mike Wright]

The days keep daying.

[Andy Holloway]

We were at. If you notice, if you watch us on YouTube, I mean, if you don't, you don't know, shame on you. But if you watch us on YouTube and that's the way you consume this show, you'll notice there's a variety of bouncing around. Sometimes all three of us are in the studio. Sometimes it's been two of us and one person at home. And today we thought we'd have two in the studio, one at home, and then it became three at home. And that's just what life's like in Arizona right now.

[Jason Moore]

That and hot.

[Andy Holloway]

It's extremely hot. It. I. I can't touch my car handle or the door handle at all.

[Mike Wright]

Over the weekend, I was in the pool and I was sweating in the pool.

[Andy Holloway]

Like, that's how hot really happens.

[Jason Moore]

The water is too hot to get in right now. It's like, someone bring me some ice.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, it's. It's. It's crazy. So. But out here in Arizona, we are. We are being as responsible with our company as possible in terms of just keeping everybody safe. So if, you know, basically, if. If Mike's dog's friend's uncle has a sniffle, we're keeping it remote on those days because we have the luxury to do that. We're thankful for that.

[Mike Wright]

And 100, man.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah. Keep Brooks safe. Really?

[Mike Wright]

Speaking of you. Yeah. Brooks is.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. Immune system probably just the worst.

[Mike Wright]

Brooks is the one who eats an apple every day, though, so.

[Andy Holloway]

That's true.

[Mike Wright]

He's probably fine. But speaking of YouTube, we're on the march, man. I don't know if you guys realize we are in the march to 200,000 subs. So.

[Andy Holloway]

Okay.

[Jason Moore]

Get there tomorrow. Yeah.

[Andy Holloway]

That was just saying that's we're close. That's awesome. That's great. You can go to YouTube.com the fantasy footballer, subscribe, click the bell.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah.

[Andy Holloway]

And become one of those people with the bragging rights of saying, oh, I was one of the first 200,000 subs.

[Jason Moore]

Which is like huge bragging rights.

[Andy Holloway]

I mean, that is a big deal.

[Jason Moore]

Tell your children about it.

[Andy Holloway]

Tell your kids Twitter @ the FF Ballers. Mike is at FF Hitman. Jason is at Jason FFL. I'm at Andy Holloway. And I did post a picture of the car thermometer showing a sweet 116 here in Arizona yesterday.

[Mike Wright]

Nice.

[Andy Holloway]

So you know that it's real. All right, quick question of the day on today's show. This one comes in from Steven in New Jersey. He says he won the losers bracket of teams that didn't make the playoffs. So he gets to choose his draft position as a consolation prize. What spot should I pick from and what factor should I consider when selecting my draft spot?

[Jason Moore]

Okay. Okay. I mean, there is no. You can win from anywhere out there. I would say if I was.

[Andy Holloway]

What's the right answer?

[Jason Moore]

Well, if I'm picking the spot, it's going to be one or two. I want Christian McCaffrey or Shake. I want one of these studs.

[Mike Wright]

So Zeke is. It's a big two for you this year?

[Andy Holloway]

It is for me, too. My favorite spots. The number two.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, I want one of those two. I would probably pick the number one pick. Just get McCaffrey, get it out of the way. Deal with the fact that my second round is a little weaker because he's so much better if he retains that same workhorse role. But let's say you're in one of those leagues where, you know, you, you, you do get an order to who picks, but those top spots are gone. That's where this year. I like the 11 spot. I like the 11 because one, it's very strategic to be one spot off of the turn. You can play the. Look at one other team, you know, have their roster. Look at their roster and say they need to go this position. So I'm going to go that position first. Then they're going to take two of those. I'll get the other guy. One love being one spot away from the turn, which Andy, as you said, you like the number two spot. That would be the same thing. And the other reason is because this year I'm all in on Kenyan Drake. I think he is a top back. He will be there at the 11 spot. I'm right now I'm in an industry mock draft with a bunch of Jake Seeley and Liz Loza, Brad Evans, a bunch, bunch of people, great people. And I'm at the 11 and I started with Dalvin Cook who fell there and turned it around with Josh Jacobs. So you know, to me, if you can start with two stud running backs at the end of the first, I'm just as happy with that as I would be getting, you know, one of those top two guys.

[Mike Wright]

Mike, I'm. Zeke is still in the top tier for me, so I'm fine with the top three pick. But if you have your choice you and you really favor one of those running backs, then just take the first pick it really.

[Andy Holloway]

But to your point, if you think there are three guys in that category, then go with the lowest. If you think there's five guys in that category, go with the lowest so that you can turn around in the second round with the best odds of getting a high value player. I got a DM somebody asking us, you know, you know, why, why project a player like Michael Thomas at number one at the wide receiver position when historically players that finish number one at any of the positions don't generally repeat the finish. And so I thought that was an interesting question to bring up too in the context of maybe this McCaffrey Saquon or McCaffrey Saquon Zeke choice. The reason players are projected that way is not because you're guaranteed to have that player repeat. It's all based on probability of a player putting up a great season. So even if Michael Thomas is unlikely to be the number one, he is still the most likely in terms of who you could select to end up there. Does that make sense?

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, 100%.

[Mike Wright]

I mean, you have volume for me, like Michael Thomas, volume is going to repeat. Christian McCaffrey does have the red flag of he's got, you know, new people calling the shots, but he most likely.

[Andy Holloway]

To repeat at the position.

[Jason Moore]

I mean, the nice thing for McCaffrey is Reggie Bonifon because that's sure who's sharing the work. There's just nobody else. Yeah, there's. There's nobody else to share the load with. So Andy, did you get that reference?

[Andy Holloway]

That was a super bon bon reference.

[Mike Wright]

That was a super bon bon reference.

[Andy Holloway]

Super bon bon. Super bon bonus.

[Mike Wright]

Oh man, I thought that one was just for the people.

[Andy Holloway]

I'm proud of you. I enjoyed it. It was subtle but 90s alternative. So I appreciate it. Yeah, I mean, and the thing is, is if you put Those players, you know, if you charted all the, let's say you taught the top players out, maybe Michael Thomas has a 30% chance to repeat. Maybe you think that Julio Jones has a 25% chance to be the number one receiver. That's how I think of it mentally, is each of these players has a percentage chance of being the top guy. Some of them have a higher chance of being a guaranteed top five player. And that's kind of, you know, how you look at it if you want to take the shot. That's why I like being at number two. I think Saquon, because of who he is, the talent, the ability, what he did at the back half of the year after the injury. And you combine that with what McCaffrey, like you brought up different offense, some variables, different quarterback, I put them very similar in terms of their odds of finishing at number one. So I choose to go number two there and be a pick earlier or later. But that's kind of the thought process behind those. I want to encourage everybody to check out FootClanVote.com you can nominate the podcast for the Podcast Awards. We are nominated in the People's choice and the sports category. That's what you can nominate us for. And then you can slide over to the comedy section if you're bored, like while you're doing it, and just throw the spitballers in there, too.

[Mike Wright]

Come on. And while you're at it, make sure you click the little box that says, yes, I would like to vote.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, they email. As long as you check that box, they'll email a random amount of people to be a final voter on the Podcast Awards, which are always very fun in the foot clan. You have a reputation to uphold here.

[Mike Wright]

So true.

[Andy Holloway]

No pressure, but you know, a symbol. That's all I'm saying. That's all I'm saying. Anything in the news there, Judge Giamatti? Anything for us to discuss? The NFL's released a picture of a new helmet. Is that news? It is now.

[Mike Wright]

It is now that you brought it up.

[Andy Holloway]

I like. It's an interesting time because training camp, we don't know if it's going to start on time. Every day there's a piece of news, positive or negative, in the endeavor for the NFL and the NFLPA to get a 2020 season together. You know, this falls in the cool, they're doing more things to try to help the players category. I thought it was interesting.

[Mike Wright]

Three teams are have expressed interest in free agent Jordan Reed.

[Jason Moore]

Ooh, incredible. We should have. We could have Taken him with our last pick in the Scotty Fishbowl. But I got my guy, Rodney Anderson.

[Andy Holloway]

What's the. Remember Jermichael Finley?

[Jason Moore]

Oh, yeah.

[Andy Holloway]

Remember when there was some interest at the end of his career and we're all kind of just saying listen.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, but I think just go watch different. Like didn't he have a full on insurance policy on himself where if he. He didn't go back to football that he got this huge payday? So, I mean, it was one he didn't have to risk his body by going back into. He still made the money. So.

[Andy Holloway]

Jordan Reed's career earnings are $25.02 million.

[Mike Wright]

It's not bad. That's not bad.

[Andy Holloway]

Stay safe, my friend. Yes, stay safe. He's such a great talent that you would love to see that resurgence if possible. I just. Reed.

[Mike Wright]

Reed's injuries are. They suck so bad, man. What he could have been.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, yeah. All right. If we don't want to talk about any other. If there's no other news to talk about, let's get divisional.

[Jason Moore]

Let's get divisional.

[Andy Holloway]

All right, we're in the AFC East. If you wanted to apprise yourself of the previous. What is it, two episodes. That's when we began the divisional breakdowns.

[Jason Moore]

Yes.

[Andy Holloway]

So we are releasing shows three times a week right now. Tuesday, Thursday, Saturday. So we released a Saturday episode this past week. You can check out as well.

[Jason Moore]

Might I just recommend you do check them out because they are excellent. It's one of those things where I love going through this process because all three of us, we do our own research, we prep for these shows, then we come in, we're all laying out our beliefs and a lot of times hearing all three of our opinions changes my own rankings. I've got my rankings pulled up. You know, I'm, you know, going through it. It's just really valuable to have the big snapshot of a team at a time. It's really the only time of the year that we take a holistic look at one team. And so you want to get all the divisional breakdowns. So if you missed the last two, congratulations. You have more footballers to today's AFC East.

[Andy Holloway]

We're doing AFC west on Thursday, then we're coming back with a mock draft episode on Saturday and then we'll go back through divisions after that. The New England Patriots, 12 and 4. They're the team we'll start this discussion around. No more Tom Brady. That's been the headline of the entire off season. Last year, they were 18th in the NFL and rushing yards per game, passing yards per game. They were up at number eight. This was not the same old Patriots offense. We know that their defense played such a huge role last year in what they were able to accomplish at 12 and 4. They ranked 23rd in yards per offensive play, and that went down from week seven through 17. So they were even less productive over the back half of the year. Just 4.9 yards per offensive play, 25th in football. That is the fewest yards per play since 2006 for a Patriots team, which I thought was very interesting. When you look holistically at this team and what you would expect them to be able to do this year, there's a lot of kind of like high level perception that, well, Tom Brady's gone, this team can only exist in the framework of a great defense and kind of figuring out the offense bit by bit. But now Cam Newton's been signed and they weren't that great on offense last year despite going 12 and 4. Mike, I know that you believe in Belichick more than just about anybody. So is it a rosier view at this point when you, when you see that the offense wasn't great last year, they were still 12 and 4. You've got Cam Newton coming in now. What's your thought?

[Mike Wright]

My thoughts are, it's, it's really interesting because this won't be the first time that Bill Belichick has shuffled up his entire offense. And this, these are offenses that had Tom Brady like he, he's been run heavy, he's been tight end heavy. He's been, he's had two tight end sets, he's had elite wide receiver numbers with like Randy Moss. The slot receiver is kind of a, it's a common factor like that. He always has that. But other than that, like, Bill Belichick changes things all the time. He tries to stay one, one to two steps ahead of what the NFL is doing to catch up when his offense has become prolific. So I'm very excited to see what he can do with, with Cam Newton. I'm projecting Cam Newton as a starter, but I'd also say I still believed in this team when we thought it was going to be Jared Stidham. I think that Bill will figure it out and there'll be guys with fantasy value on this team. Still.

[Andy Holloway]

One of the things that's interesting is you brought up their tight end. You know, they had the Rob Gronkowski, Aaron Hernandez era of Patriots offensive football. And then you look to last year where they were literally dead last in The National Football League in terms of targets to the tight end position they did.

[Mike Wright]

So they don't throw to them.

[Andy Holloway]

Right. And that's good coaching rather than conforming targets to positions and players that don't have the ability to produce. We keep trying to as the fantasy community at large, year after year fit, you know, our expectations on the Bill Belichick as opposed to the other way around at times. And then you end up with that situation where they're not targeting the tight end and yeah, you sure you pick the right Patriots tight end and they're dead last in league and targets. Jason, what are your thoughts on this offense as a whole when it comes to fantasy and potential opportunities that maybe the fantasy community isn't seeing?

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, I think everything changed when they got Cam Newton. This offense was one I didn't want any part of and I changed a little bit when they brought in Cam Newton, specifically the running game. I think things are going to open up for Sony Michelle a lot. You know, last year he was not good. I don't know that he's really ever been good. I wasn't a huge fan of him coming out of college.

[Andy Holloway]

Can I shoot a stat at you, Jay, to highlight that?

[Jason Moore]

Yes. I've got my bulletproof vest on.

[Andy Holloway]

Sony Michelle has five. He has five running back, one scoring weeks in 29 regular season games with 18 weeks as an RB3 or lower.

[Jason Moore]

Yes.

[Andy Holloway]

And maybe doesn't get the goal line now.

[Mike Wright]

Five times.

[Andy Holloway]

Five times.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. Which you know, has been good news when, when you, when you didn't believe in the player. But I also think that, you know, when Tom Brady's there, obviously Tom Brady's the goat. He's great. But when they didn't do what you would expect them to do of like masking when they're going to run, you know, they just bring in and say we're running the ball in a heavy set. And I think that Sony isn't good enough to get it done. But here's the thing that changes when Cam Newton is on the field against the stacked boxes. This is according to Warren Sharp. Cam Newton and the Panthers against stacked boxes, running backs were able to have a great yards per carry, a great positive result. And as soon as Cam left, they didn't. And that's the same running back. So you have to. It's very similar what you see in Baltimore if you have a true mobile quarterback. And I think Bill Belichick is going to run Cam Newton like crazy. It's a one year contract. He's going to See if he can create a great offense around Cam Newton's strengths and I think that will open up rushing lanes for Sony Michelle. So the goal line might be vultured a little bit, but I do think if Sony does not land on the pup, he's such a value in drafts right now because you can get him late, not mid rounds, late rounds. And that's where it's like he's one of the last starters left. So Cam helps me believe in that and I also believe in Cam Newton. I think he's going to be pretty good for fantasy. He has never not been good for fantasy when he's on the field.

[Andy Holloway]

Do you agree with the assessment of Sony Michelle? Mike, I find myself while he is a great value late in drafts perceptually, I just, I just don't know if we're going to get it when we need it.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, that's very fair. But I'm fine with his draft price because he's just building in. Building in the margin for Sony Michelle to hit some type of a ceiling at running back 37 right now in best ball like that's, that's absolutely outstanding value. Now his counterpoint or counterpart, I should say, of James White who has averaged 94 targets over the last four years. How do you guys feel about James White as no, just a later round PPR running back who's had great fantasy success has also been kind of meh. And the we saw enough of the Cam Newton doesn't throw to the running back narrative like Christian McCaffrey blew that up. So if James White is there in a Patriot system and Cam Newton is the quarterback, White's still going to see targets. But do you, do you want James White on any teams? I don't think I've even considered drafting James White at any point of this offseason.

[Andy Holloway]

I think a lot of it to me has to do with whether Nikhil Harry is a viable target in this offense on a regular basis and whether this absolute atrocious trade for Mohammed Sanu ends up being a horrible bust or not. I mean Mohamed Sanu in Atlanta was a slot dominator and here you have Julian Edelman in that spot in this offense and Sanu did nothing. If Harry Sanu and Edelman are the primary targets in this offense, then James White's going to be one of those players that in a pinch, yeah, you can start him, but it's not a reliable week to week type of player. A lot of what Cam Newton did successfully the last time we saw him healthy on the Field was attributed to essentially short passing game putting him in a position where he could succeed on the underneath routes, which is complimentary for James Wright. If he lines up in the slot and runs some of those underneath high percentage throws for Cam Newton in this offense, then maybe. But I. You're right, it's a weird dynamic where James White doesn't really fit into the narrative fantasy wise for this team. And I don't know if that's a mistake or not. I think it's just because we can't have our. We don't have our heads around this offense.

[Jason Moore]

Well, you're certainly going to pass the ball less with Cam Newton than you did with Tom Brady. Cam Newton's never been anywhere near the passing volume that Brady had last year. Part of that is because he scrambles from time to time and those are the plays that take away from the pass catching running back. You know, I'm going to say something that I think will surprise a lot of people. James White is not Christian McCaffrey. When. When they brought in Christian McCaffrey. Yes. Cam Newton threw the ball to him because he's Christian McCaffrey. I don't think they're going to. Yes, thank you. I mean, shocking. But the reality is I think a lot of the dump offs, the timing routes, the pockets collapsing, get it to my check down guy from Brady, those are gone with Cam Newton. Now it's scramble, buy time, find something scrambled, throw the ball downfield or pick it up with my legs. So he'll be involved in a PPR league. Maybe you can have, you know, a borderline flex player, but he's not a guy that I'm interested in.

[Andy Holloway]

Julian Edelman is the wide receiver 33 right now in drafts. Nikhil Harry is the wide receiver 65 in drafts. Mike, were you going to talk about the Whiteouts?

[Mike Wright]

I was like Julian Edelman. I'm still, I'm confident with Julian Edelman, especially at this draft. Cost of wide receiver 33 currently in best ball. He's coming off the best year of his career. Like Julian Edelman. He's. He. He's already an outlier in terms of age and production. So I'm still willing to draft, you know, the, the wide receiver 10 and half PPR. I'm willing to give him a shot in the wide receiver 30s. What I wanted to bring up, I took a deeper look at Nikhil Harry and comparable drafted players. So I went and I looked because Harry was a bust and what kind of hope should we have for a player of his Draft pedigree to break out. So over the last 10 years, I looked at first and first and second round wide receivers who were drafted who put up under 30 receptions in their rookie season. We have 27 wide receivers who have next year data. So across these players, again, these. I know 30 is kind of an arbitrary number, but I wanted like a really low number to see if these players succeeded or not. Of the 27 players, the average receptions for their rookie season, 16 receptions. The average increase to the next year, about 16 receptions. So really not anything that you were happy with.

[Andy Holloway]

Can I ask you a question for clarity there though? Because I mean, Nikhil Harry didn't see a snap till week 11. Is that include players that are.

[Mike Wright]

This is, this is injured.

[Andy Holloway]

It doesn't even matter.

[Mike Wright]

I did not remove players for any reason of like some guys were hurt, some guys just didn't produce. He was a little bit of both because he was hurt for the majority of the season, but then really didn't come in correct and splash at all.

[Andy Holloway]

There were 12 receptions on the entire year. Something like that.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah.

[Mike Wright]

There were three players who made a big jump that you were happy with. That would have been Randall Cobb who went up 55 receptions. He went up 55.

[Andy Holloway]

Thank you. Just give me. We're remote today. Mike, give me a second.

[Mike Wright]

DJ Chark went up 59 receptions and Alshon Jeffrey went up 65 receptions. Now there are some notable players in this group that took a few years to kind of become something like Golden Tate, demarius Thomas, devonte Parker. Devonte Parker is in that group now. And Mike Williams, I kind of put him in that bunch of.

[Andy Holloway]

He's.

[Mike Wright]

He like, he's. He's a fine fantasy player now, but if you're just going on historical comps, it's, it's not, it's not positive news for Nikhil Harry.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. My initial thought was the same as Andy's was that he missed so much of the season due to injury that you can't really tell.

[Andy Holloway]

It's just hard to hold 12 receptions against the guy that didn't play till week 11.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, I mean that. But that is the thing, right? He still played in seven games and you know, would have his 16 game pace in those seven was 27 receptions. So that's not good.

[Andy Holloway]

I will apologize for him. I have no qualms with taking a shot at him. I think he's got equal odds of being the number one wide receiver on that team and you're paying nothing for him.

[Jason Moore]

He did have more rushing attempts than their third round running back selection who was not injured the whole season in Damon Harris. So that's incredible.

[Andy Holloway]

Is that true? That's a funny stat. Yeah. I like a shot on one of these players. If you look at the team as a whole, as we move on to Buffalo, I feel like every single player on this entire team has been adjusted down in ADP due to the ambiguity of this off season and losing Tom Brady. There is a, you know, if there's a proportionate Brady bump in the. On the Tampa side, there is a. What's the opposite of a. What's the opposite of a bump? How do you go down a dip? Yeah, there's a Brady dip in all ADPs on this team. So whether it's Sony Michelle James, y, Nikhil Harry, Julian Edelman, if you have a beat on this team, if you have a player you like, you're getting them cheaper than they'll finish.

[Jason Moore]

And the ironic part is we could very easily look back and say that Cam this coming year was better than Brady was last year and that Brady this coming year was worse for fantasy purposes than Jameis Winston was last year. It's possible that you should be getting a Brady dip in Tampa.

[Mike Wright]

Sure. And, yeah. And it's a gross question, but I want to throw it out if you have to. If you're in a really deep league and you got to grab one of these tight ends of Matt Lacoste, who was on the team last year, did nothing, and then you have the rookies, Devin Ozzy. Ozzy.

[Jason Moore]

Oy.

[Mike Wright]

Oi. Oi. Or Dalton Keane. Who are you picking? You have to take one. Don't tell me you've not taken one. You have to.

[Andy Holloway]

Gross.

[Mike Wright]

I said it was gross.

[Jason Moore]

Okay, my answer, if I'm on the clock and I have to take one, is Jordan Reed, and I'm not joking. I would rather have Jordan Reed on my roster right now, hoping he gets signed somewhere than one of those guys.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, I guess it's Ozzy. Ozzy. But he's a rookie tight end with under 800 collegiate receiving yards in his career, so. Ew.

[Jason Moore]

And let's be honest.

[Andy Holloway]

Thanks for the gross question, Mike.

[Mike Wright]

You're welcome.

[Jason Moore]

And let's be honest. Ahead of Jordan Reed would obviously be Dan Arnold, the post who will dominate.

[Mike Wright]

Why are you bringing up Dan Arnold? We're trying to talk about the Patriots.

[Jason Moore]

We're talking tight ends that don't matter.

[Mike Wright]

How dare you say the postman doesn't matter?

[Andy Holloway]

Just statistically, Mike. Not in actuality.

[Mike Wright]

Thank you.

[Andy Holloway]

Not in your Life.

[Jason Moore]

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[Andy Holloway]

All right, let's talk about the Buffalo Bills. Last year they went 10 and six big additions this offseason. Stefan Diggs, third round rookie running back Zach Moss. They lost Frank Gore, although Gore did not retire. Don't be silly, of course. And you know, Josh Allen last year made some strides. This team was, you know, we talk a lot about it, wanting to have an identity in terms of running the football, which I think is important. For Josh Allen to have success at the NFL level you need to be able to run the ball because he was a very successful play action quarterback. He was not a successful quarterback outside of the play action. But they didn't run the ball disproportionately last year. They were willing to put the ball in Josh Allen's hands, especially over the back half of the season. And I think that there are a lot of high fantasy expectations for this team this year. A lot of players that are just likable in terms of, you know, Josh Allen being that later round quarterback that we all think could, you know, win, win you a week because of his rushing prowess or even end up top five on the year. Devin Singletary is interesting. There are question marks around his role in the offense. And then Stefan Diggs. Diggs is so difficult. I found this out last year. He was the fourth player since 1992 to have 1100 yards on fewer than 100 targets.

[Mike Wright]

And he's very good.

[Andy Holloway]

I mean very good. It's ridiculous. And honestly, I could see that exact recipe working for Stefan Diggs in this offense again this year where no, the targets aren't what a number one wide receiver demands, wants, should receive. The kind of things that makes made Stefan Diggs unhappy in Minnesota and yet the production could still end up there in terms of total yardage. He's being drafted at the wide receiver 26 right now. I think I'm just comfortable with him right there.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, I think he's a value there. We've talked about this early in the off season a lot. I was much higher on Diggs than you two were. But when push came to shove, I didn't see him as a top 15 wide receiver. But I do see him as a wide receiver too. I think he gets north of 125 targets. When I look at how this team's going to break it up and how they're going to play. Their pace of play at the end of last season picked up dramatically. A lot of no huddle all of a sudden. They weren't this low volume team, they were a high volume team. And I think, look, getting Stefan Diggs only helps that you've got personnel to stay out there on the field with three really good wide receivers and just keep the defense without being able to substitute March down the field. I'm really excited for what this offense could do and I do think Diggs will be efficient and have enough volume to be a locked and loaded wide receiver too for me. So at 26, I think it's a slight value, not a huge value. And when it comes to Josh Allen, look, he's not the best real life quarterback, but he is a very good fantasy quarterback. But it's going to be a tale of two halves. I worry because you start the season, I like drafting him. The jets, the Dolphins, the Rams, the Raiders, you know, it's not the, it's not the worst schedule there, but on the course of the season, the Bills played the eighth easiest schedule of past defenses last year and they play the 8th toughest in 2020. No offense faces tougher increase in caliber of past defenses according to Warren Sharp, who that's the one that I trust when it comes to actually looking at strength of schedule because it's not, it goes much, much deeper. It includes free agency and things like that. So on the course of the season, Josh Allen is. He's either going to take a major step forward as an NFL passer or is going to be in for some trouble.

[Andy Holloway]

Mike, did you want to contribute any thoughts on the Stefan Diggs discussion?

[Mike Wright]

All my Stefan Diggs comments are always related to Josh Allen's inaccuracy going down the field. He could throw the ball very, very far. Just we've not seen it be accurate last year on deep passes. He was the 29th rated quarterback which is one spot ahead of Mitchell Trubisky. It's also two spots behind David Blau. So David Blau more accurate going down the field than Josh Allen.

[Jason Moore]

That's because when David Blau went down the field, Kenny Galladay was reaching up, grabbing these things.

[Mike Wright]

And now these are adjusted completion percentages. So it tosses out like if it's if the receivers were dropped the ball that gets knocked out of this.

[Andy Holloway]

One of the problems that Devin Singletary may face as the running back here in Buffalo is the same situation we have with Sony Michelle where vulturing goal line opportunities very easy to have happen to you with Cam Newton, with Josh Allen last year even get him. That's it. I mean he didn't get them last year. He didn't get them.

[Mike Wright]

He may not be on the field to get them. Last year Devin Singletary had three carries inside of the 10 and they all came in one game. Now he scored like I don't know why they decided to go away from him. Meanwhile Frank gore last year 18 carries inside the 10 and produced two rushing touchdowns from there on those, those carries. But they just kept going to Frank Gore. So I think that's. That will be a problem for Devin Singletary and his ceiling because Zach Moss, he can play that role. A lot is being said of the Bills want Zach Moss to play the Frank Gore role. And the way I read into that more is that Zach Moss will be the goal line running back.

[Andy Holloway]

Singletary is, he's one of those players that might be really annoying to own.

[Mike Wright]

He's going to be like Philip Lindsay.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, there's a category of players where they're on the field and it's like first and 10 from the 18 and you know, if Singletary doesn't score on this next run, he may be off the field and unfortunately that is just, you know, for he's a fourth round pick right now he's RB23. They say they want to involve him in the passing game more but that can be a really annoying fantasy player.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, look, if they gave him the opportunities he would score. I remember scouting him in college and I wrote down that I think he would be an awesome goal line back, which is so weird because he's a tiny, undersized, 200 pound guy. But I wrote down, man, I'm going to draft him super high if he goes to the Saints or the Patriots, a team that will see that and utilize him there. I think if he gets the opportunity, he'll crush. So there is upside there, but I think all three of us project him to not get the opportunity. And so if you're not really a pass catching back and you're not getting goal line, it doesn't matter how good you are, he's going to be great between the twenties and at the end of the day going to disappoint your fantasy roster unless they give him the goal line he deserves. And I don't think Zach Moss is good enough to have that role.

[Mike Wright]

And if you're in on Zach Moss, just so you have context, games with Devin Signal, Terry Frank Gore averaged about 11 opportunities per game. So if you're, if he is in that role, like that's maybe if you throw in the goal line that maybe Zach Moss has value. But I think he's going to be a running back that if you don't get a touchdown, you got a really bad fantasy day.

[Andy Holloway]

The tough part about Buffalo is I think they're going to be a really good team. I think they're a top 10 NFL team and here you have their number, you know, the highest running back in fantasy drafts going at RB23. And so there is, to Jason's point, there is upside. If things go the right way, if they do involve Singletary in the passing game or if he gets to split those goal line opportunities with the Zach Moss to keep defenses on their toes, that would be, you know, you're going to have a guy that finishes above RB23, but there's just more risk. I like running backs on great teams. I like running backs on teams that are going to move the football. Now, are we New Jersey or, I'm sorry, New York, Miami, the Rams and Las Vegas to start the year as well.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah. Are we overlooking John Brown, who was the number one wide receiver on this team last year was pretty solid for fantasy football. I know that Stefan Diggs is there, but in the range of outcomes, do you see no positive signs for John Brown? J. Stefan Diggs is there and it's eliminated him.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. Best ball. Best ball. Sure, he'll catch a deep pass, take it to a touchdown, that's fine, but the volume is going to Shift over to Diggs. You didn't trade the world, pay the man as much as you did. He's been working with Josh Allen already. I mean, this is Diggs dig will have a target market share of the team. That renders the other guys pretty much useless if you are trying to predict which weeks to start them. I mean, Cole Beasley and John Brown, they'll be on the field, they'll get receptions, they'll have some touchdowns. So there'll be a couple games that are fine, but you're not going to be able to start them on a regular basis.

[Andy Holloway]

There was only four games last year that John Brown ended up inside the top 24, and that was without Stefan Diggs. Beasley demands a lot of targets. I don't think it'll be easy. He's a player that you could roll out there and hope. That's no question about that. But I think he is a complimentary type of wide receiver.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah.

[Andy Holloway]

All right, let's talk about the New York Jets. Somehow shocking to me, I know that we watch football, but it was still a surprise to see them in 7 and 9.

[Jason Moore]

Couldn't believe it myself.

[Andy Holloway]

I mean, they came off, I believe, a 4 and 12 year with Todd Bowles.

[Mike Wright]

Wait, what? The jets were 7 and 9.

[Andy Holloway]

This is what I'm saying. There is a certain. There's a certain. No, I know, I know. They really were.

[Mike Wright]

Mike, I'm quadruple checking this.

[Andy Holloway]

You can quadruple check it.

[Jason Moore]

Please do. Because all three of us, we saw in your mind. Jets won seven.

[Andy Holloway]

The jets are owing 16, I believe.

[Mike Wright]

No, no, no.

[Jason Moore]

I don't think three and three.

[Mike Wright]

They were seven and nine.

[Andy Holloway]

They were seven and nine. They had to start the season with what, Luke Falk at quarterback for three games? Was that the. The hand that Adam Gaze was dealt? And yet this team did not show signs statistically of being an improved offense at all. They just weasel their way to 7 and 9. It's a make or break year for Sam Darnold, yet he is 23 years.

[Jason Moore]

Old, which is younger than Joe Burrow.

[Andy Holloway]

Is he younger? I think Joe Burrow turns 23 later this year.

[Jason Moore]

I believe that Sam Darnold is younger than Joe Burrow. I will fact check myself.

[Andy Holloway]

Oh, Joe Burrow is 23 right now. Yeah, December 10th. So, yeah, regardless, the point is we need.

[Mike Wright]

Darnold just turned 23.

[Andy Holloway]

There you go.

[Mike Wright]

So he is younger.

[Andy Holloway]

And so Darnold is in a position where we knew that coming out how young he was hasn't been great. But this Is a player that last year was under pressure 42% of the time he was dropping back. And he had Jameson Crowder to throw the football to. Chris Herndon wasn't there. Not a lot of options. Robbie Anderson up and down. These are my excuses for what's Transpired.

[Mike Wright]

For Sam Darnold 6. Man, he was above.500 with that team.

[Jason Moore]

And they had all the line.

[Andy Holloway]

31St in rushing yards per game. 31st and rushing touchdowns, 29th. And passing yards per game, 27th and passing touchdowns.

[Jason Moore]

Their defense was pretty good. I have wrongly when I've been looking at other players and saying, you know, oh, they've got this team, this team and the jets out there that they're playing. The jets defense was pretty legit. So I think they deserve a lot of the credit. And the offensive line changes this year. I mean, that could change everything for this team if they replace their head coach.

[Andy Holloway]

Well, I was gonna say it could also change nothing. I mean, these are still. You've made a couple of strides on O line, but we haven't seen it carried out. And you're in a tough division and you were a really, really bad offense last year. And if we're talking about adding Denzel Mims as the solution for your offense while you lose Robbie Anderson or. Yeah, I mean, and Frank Gore. Brashad Perryman and Frank Gore have been added to save an offense that finished, you know, basically dead last in a ton of offensive metrics.

[Mike Wright]

So this, like, we've seen enough of Adam Gaze that he has earned his nickname. But if we seriously see Frank Gore, who I love. I love Frank Gore. But last year, Frank Gore over the second half of the year was 2.6 a carry in 80 attempts. If we seriously see Frank Gore displacing Le'Veon Bell on the field, that, like, to me, that will be a new. A new low for Adam Gaze.

[Andy Holloway]

Unfortunately, any fantasy football bet on a New York jet involves the variable of Adam Gaze's stupidity. Historical stupidity. This is.

[Jason Moore]

Look, I love your choice of adjectives there.

[Andy Holloway]

I mean, because that's all it is.

[Jason Moore]

I wanted to say idiocy. I will fully accept stupidity. What a dumb. Dumb.

[Andy Holloway]

Just as a coach, sure, there's not a lot of statistical reasons to counterpoint that dum dum is not necessarily the same level of adjective that I used, but it's still appropriate from like projecting these players. I mean, I believe Jameson Crowder was their leading receiver in both in yards, receptions and touchdowns. You know, I like Chris Herndon a lot. I'm taking him late in drafts, we took him in Scotty Fish. I think he will be a player that, you know, maybe of all of the offensive pass catchers on this team offers the fantasy owner the best actual, you know, value return. Yeah, I like Denzel Mims, but a second round pick. Okay, I'm.

[Mike Wright]

Look, man, James, what's going to happen? Crowder is it's a boring pick. I get it. It's not a ceiling pick at all, but 122 targets, 830 yards, six touchdowns. He's not a top 24 wide receiver for your squad, but you're not drafting him as that. He's. He is a very. He doesn't have the ceiling, but I think that his floor is very sturdy and he can be a foundational like wide ppr, wide receiver three for your team.

[Andy Holloway]

I would, I would put Denzel Mims into the last pick of the draft category though, for fantasy owners, because he could start from day one. And if you have that guy, we always say, like at the very end of drafts, take a player that you might get to find out something in week one. I think Mims is in that category of like, remember when Marcus Colston was drafted at the back half of drafts and game one in the NFL, he comes out and explodes in his rookie season.

[Mike Wright]

Terry McLaurin, he was a guy we talked about as a, as a last pick or even after you draft, like, you should grab Terry McLaurin just in case.

[Jason Moore]

Now, interestingly enough, would you put Prashad Perryman there as a last pick in the draft? I mean, because you're making that bet, right? Is it Denzel Mims or is it Rashad Perryman who starts in that role?

[Andy Holloway]

You can do that. But you're talking about Perryman on his fourth NFL team, I believe. And like ceiling wise, I would just rather take the chance on the guy that was number one in college football and contested catches. Second round draft pick meant to be the future of the franchise. If you want to go Perryman then, though, Jay, that would be very good.

[Mike Wright]

At the end with Jameis.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, it's just. Do you. Are they building the offense around him? Maybe. I mean, I. It's Jameson Crowder. His floor and his ceiling are identical. Jameson Crowder is. It's not. There's no room to move. It's just right there. Yeah.

[Mike Wright]

And I just talked about Le'Veon Bell on the Bounce Back Show. His price tag for a running back that is going to get that volume and the targets, like, I'm. I'm back in on Le'Veon Bell. I don't think he's going to jump all the way back to being a top eight like a superstar, but he's going to be real solid.

[Andy Holloway]

The problem with Love Bell is again, what we brought up with the variables of Adam Gaze.

[Mike Wright]

Like I said, he could be a new low.

[Andy Holloway]

Like the, you know, he looks like he's the delicious like potato salad out on the table and then there's a fly in it and you didn't know it and it just looks like the greatest thing. And Adam Gaze, he filled it with flies and it doesn't work out.

[Mike Wright]

No potatoes at all.

[Andy Holloway]

It's the thing is Gaze doesn't like Lev Bell.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, he doesn't. He didn't want him on the team.

[Andy Holloway]

Loves Frank Gore and that scares the crap out of me. But you're right, value wise, if things go according to plan, Love Bell is such a better runner. Please let saner heads prevail here.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, I would, I would still go with the Melvin Gordon, David Johnson of that kind of, you know, X great running back group over Love Bell. But he is, he is a value where he's being drafted.

[Andy Holloway]

Any other jets related topics you guys want to get into before we move on Fantasy wise?

[Jason Moore]

Darnold. The only, the only question is, you know, is Darnold a guy who could, who could break out? I mean, he was sick. He's young. You don't believe so.

[Andy Holloway]

I do not. No, I don't believe that they have made enough. They've equipped him with enough weapons to make.

[Mike Wright]

See, I think it's possible. I think he doesn't have. On paper, it doesn't look like elite, elite skill players around him. But Levan Bell is still very, a very capable guy. Crowder, safe reception guy. And then the upside of Mims plus Rashard Perryman, Well, I mean, it's a budget version of a high flying offense, but I can see what Jason's talking about.

[Andy Holloway]

Why is Jason actually saying that? Because I didn't hear him say that.

[Mike Wright]

Okay, I will be the one who says it. I can see it. I'm not betting on it.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, I'm just asking the question. And at the end of all of this, all jokes aside, because we love to joke about Adam Gase, he's the B hole. But at the end of the day, all of the questionable options on this team are going to be relying upon Adam Gaze doing a good job if they want to break out in fantasy. So I'm not going to take the shot on Darnold I'm not going to take the shot on Mims or Pearman and I'm not going to take the shot on Herndon as my single late round. I mean, you know in Scotty Fish where you're drafting a bunch of tight ends and you're going 22 rounds, sure. I'm not going to bet on these Jets. That's my final answer.

[Andy Holloway]

It definitely came through not betting on the Jets. Drew Locke or Sam Darnold for that opportunity. Jimmy G or Sam Darnold?

[Jason Moore]

I mean, I would definitely go Jimmy G over Sam Darnold.

[Andy Holloway]

Teddy Bridgewater or Sam Darnold when it comes down to it.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. Yeah. For those reasons, I'm out. Shark Tank.

[Mike Wright]

Shark tank.

[Andy Holloway]

Miami Dolphins 5 and 11 last year. I believe they ended the year at 5 and 4 over the last 9 games. Really a big turnaround.

[Jason Moore]

They tried to not be able to draft Tua. They tried their best.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, they did. They still got him. Game with the Bengals where it was like, basically this is the winner of.

[Andy Holloway]

The number one pick.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah. The loser of this game gets the number one pick. And the Dolphins had to like come all the way back. The game went into overtime. Why are you doing this?

[Jason Moore]

I think it worked out. They have added so many pieces and we need to be careful as fantasy players to not view the Miami Dolphins defense as a great matchup. As a plus matchup. I don't think it is necessarily. Well, I mean, so many teams, you don't really know until the season's going, but they went from a super young, inexperienced and poor talent defense to a really high caliber. Tons of great players all over the place.

[Andy Holloway]

They spent $237 million in free agency.

[Jason Moore]

That's insane.

[Mike Wright]

And they had so many picks. And I thought they had a great.

[Andy Holloway]

Draft that was $100 million more than the next highest free agent spending, which was the Lions. This is not the team and defense that they had last year. That doesn't mean that that will congeal into a great division challenging defense in year one. But Jason's point is probably the most fantasy relevant one you can make. Don't view the Dolphins defense as a matchup in the same way that you might have looked at them last year when they finished 27th against the run, 26th against the pass. In terms of yards given up to both, it might not be that way this year. What? Byron Jones, some big pieces with Shaq Lawson from Buffalo, Vanoy from New England. So they're just sniping people out of their division on top of that. And so very interesting this year. A lot of people like Brian Flores. I think he's a pretty good head coach. Chan Gailey is taking over offensive coordinator this year.

[Mike Wright]

That's where things get very interesting for me with Chan Gailey one, I mean you got, it's the reunion. So that's, that's always just fun of Chan Gailey is back with Ryan Fitzpatrick and just taking a look back at the history of Chan Gailey with, with Ryan Fitzpatrick because you got three years in Buffalo where he was the head coach. You got two years with the jets where Chan Gailey was the OC and you have like big time fantasy producers and you see some tendencies of like in Buffalo. You guys remember Stevie Johnson? Remember how good that dude was?

[Andy Holloway]

Stevie? Yeah, man. Weird route runner, right?

[Mike Wright]

In those three years, Stevie Johnson with Fitzpatrick averaged 141 targets. The two years in New York with Fitzpatrick. Brandon Marshall averaged 150 targets last year. Devonte Parker did what he did on 128. So it's like there is room for growth for Devonte Parker. And then you have the running backs like the Buffalo and the jets days. There was always a running back over 50 targets. The running back position as a whole was always seeing over 100 targets. Like there's no.

[Andy Holloway]

Jordan Howard is not getting that.

[Mike Wright]

I know.

[Andy Holloway]

So where's, where is that opportunity target wise then in the Miami basketball and.

[Mike Wright]

I don't know, honestly. It's funny as Jordan Howard his Rookie year saw 50 targets. He has plummeted since.

[Andy Holloway]

That was the learning process for the Jordan Howard targets.

[Mike Wright]

And Matt Breida has never seen more than 36 targets in a year. But my point is we have years of evidence of tendencies of play calling from Chan Gailey and there is fantasy goodness to be had from this.

[Jason Moore]

It is I think the biggest question that if we could answer with 100% clarity changes everything. That changes everything which is who's going to be the starting quarterback and for how many weeks? Everybody. I mean it's definitely going to be Ryan Fitzpatrick to start the season. With the shortened off season and all that they're going to let to have a little bit more time. I would be shocked if week one he is. But I'm starting to think more and more that TUA could end up taking a red shirt season because if the defense is actually good enough and the Dolphins can win some games. You know Ryan Fitzpatrick when he came in, you know, remember started with Josh Rosen and then he came in and relief, they had a week five and then he basically was the starter from week six on. Do you. Do you guys know? I mean, this is fantasy and they had a terrible defense, so it won't be the same, but do you know where Ryan Fitzpatrick was from week six on for fantasy?

[Mike Wright]

I don't. I'm very excited to hear, though, he's.

[Jason Moore]

The quarterback, too, behind Lamar Jackson. No.

[Mike Wright]

What? From week six on?

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, he was. No, he was just gunsling and just, you know, obviously I'm going to throw.

[Andy Holloway]

The wet blanket on this quickly.

[Jason Moore]

Okay.

[Andy Holloway]

If this offensive line doesn't improve, two is taking over due to injury before. He'll take over due to skill. You can injure Fitzmaster. You certainly can injure Fitz Magic. He's been hurt before and he can get hurt again. That. That is the other reality of the situation is that two, I might not just take over because of a struggling record. He may take over because he has to. That's the real number, Mike. Number two.

[Mike Wright]

That is the real number because, like, he. He was either awesome or he was in the 20s, which was pretty rough.

[Jason Moore]

So.

[Andy Holloway]

Ooh, Jason, like, we've been here before, guys.

[Mike Wright]

We're moving. Yeah, right. Yeah. And you know what that movie was. Ryan Fitzpatrick on the jets with Chan Gailey surrounded.

[Andy Holloway]

One good year, one bad year.

[Mike Wright]

Sure.

[Andy Holloway]

And that's all I'm saying is you do have. You have Ryan Fitzpatrick. How many teams has he played for?

[Jason Moore]

I believe it's 28, 20 coming.

[Mike Wright]

That is a lot for Josh McCown.

[Andy Holloway]

I'm just throwing the wet blanket on that. Every time you expect something from Ryan Fitzpatrick in his entire career, every time he lets you down, that is fair. He's a good at surprising. He's not good at delivering on a promise.

[Jason Moore]

Right. I would agree. And, you know, the thing is, and this is where I was saying this question affects the rest of the Dolphins. When I look at Devonte Parker, I would be excited about him. With Ryan Fitzpatrick, I know that he will throw it whether he's open or not, and give him the chance to make that contested catch. I don't know that with tua. I would be excited for Preston Williams, who was actually, you know, leading the team as an undrafted rookie before he got injured. I would be excited about Gasicki, who. Who was a top tight end over the final part of the year, but as soon as TUA makes that switch over, I feel like I'm out across the board on these options for rookie year. Tua. So in the beginning of the season, maybe you'll feel good about your draft picks if you go after Some of these Dolphins, but I worry about the longevity and the beginning of the season is at New England and then Buffalo. So, I mean, and then they play.

[Andy Holloway]

Seattle in week four at New England.

[Mike Wright]

Where Ryan Fitzpatrick was quarterback number four to finish up the year.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. And Devonte Parker torched. Who is it Gilmore?

[Mike Wright]

Yes. Or perhaps you were talking about week seven when at Buffalo. Ryan Fitzpatrick was the number seven fantasy quarterback on the week.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. But their defense was terrible and so they had amazing. They had to sling it around. I know it was. The Dolphins were a lot of fun last year for fantasy. This season you are taking a very dangerous approach to draft these pass catchers.

[Andy Holloway]

Let me illustrate something that took place just so that Mike doesn't move him to number one right now. Fitzpatrick, remember the year, Remember before the Jamis year when he started the year and was just absolutely on fire for the Tampa Bay year, the Tampa Bay year. He was number one in week one, number six in week two, number four in week three. So he's more than capable of that. When he came back and took over the job in week eight through 11, it was 14, 5, 19, 21. Dang it. That's still not that bad.

[Mike Wright]

There was a tough time in there.

[Jason Moore]

Let's go. He's number one.

[Mike Wright]

Fitzpatrick season.

[Andy Holloway]

I will say this, Jason. I think it's a little bit difficult to say that every player is going to take a nosedive if they determine that TUA should take over. Because we're sitting here, we've talked about the Bengals already on divisional breakdowns. We've talked about what that what Joe Burrow could provide. Rookie quarterbacks do a little bit more than they've done in the past. Nowadays, if TUA is capable of taking over, he's a very accurate quarterback. He is a very capable quarterback. He's the number five pick in the draft that was projected to be the number one. So having Burrow like expectations with Tua, if he's healthy is not unreasonable. I mean, he's a passer first and many would believe he's a better passer than Joe Burrow.

[Jason Moore]

I agree that look, he's still going to. You know, Terry McLaurin was fine last year even with Dwayne Haskins. So players can overcome that. But I think the difference here is the illustration between last year having Andy Dalton in his worst season ever. That is when he wasn't benched. Going to Joe Burrow versus we had a very good fit Patrick Stretch going to tua. So one is going up, one is going down for these weapons and all of the projections, when we're looking at, you know, when we're looking at Devonte Parker's breakout and Gasicki's second half of the year breakout, all of those things required that Fitzpatrick, you know, gunslinger mentality. So I, you know, I'm not, I'm not crazy about any of these options, but I do think if I had, if, like, if I'm taking a quarterback in a three quarterback league. Right, you're a two quarterback. You're playing a super flex, and I'm grabbing my third. I think almost everybody will draft TUA ahead of Fitzmagic, assuming that he'll get the start at some point. I would actually draft Ryan Fitzpatrick first in the hopes that he gets to continue playing at the level he played last year while TUA learns running back shot.

[Andy Holloway]

Are you taking it on Jordan Howard or are you taking it on Matt Breida?

[Jason Moore]

If I have to have one, I would go Howard. I find myself less and less inclined. You know, we've talked about he's basically the last starting running back in the in adp. But then when I get there, I'm like, I don't want that.

[Andy Holloway]

The thing I like about taking Howard over Breida is if you look historically at Kyle Shanahan's success with the plug and play running back after running back after running back after running. I mean, this was a guy that Kyle Shanahan turned Ryan Terrain into a great player. Okay. Breida's leaving that plug and play system. And most players that leave it don't succeed. Jordan Howard's already left Chicago to succeed in Philadelphia, at least kind of from a, you know, team switching standpoint. We've seen it with Jordan Howard. That's why I lean that direction.

[Mike Wright]

Do we finally get Jordan Howard with.

[Andy Holloway]

40 receptions because of Jan Gailey on 365 targets?

[Mike Wright]

I would, I would take Howard as well.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, I think that the Jordan Howard or Sony Michelle Latent drafts.

[Jason Moore]

I would go Sony.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, probably Sony, but I don't.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, I don't know how the backfield is going to break down between Howard and Breda. There's some talk about Breeda extension, and then they decided to delay it in Miami. So that could change my view of the situation. But right now I kind of like Howard. So. Tough schedule to start the year, though. I mean, yeah, Jordan Howard gets to go to New England and then face Buffalo and then face Jacksonville in Seattle.

[Jason Moore]

So Jacksonville's nice.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, yeah, yeah. There's one in Jacksonville, though. All right. Any other thoughts on The Dolphins. I think it's going to be a better year for them but that might equate to 6 and 10 in this division. Who do you have win in this division? Let's close it out with Patriots.

[Jason Moore]

I have the Patriots winning. I really want to go Buffalo, but I'll take Buffalo. I think with Cam, the Patriots will win but Buffalo is right there with them. I think there's two really good teams in this division and two not so really good teams in this division.

[Mike Wright]

I think we should actually go back because we didn't really talk about Mike Kosicki very much. Who is a.

[Andy Holloway]

Yes, sure.

[Mike Wright]

He's athletic monster. He's one of mine and Andy's favorite later round guys to really break out. Jason, I can't remember where you are.

[Jason Moore]

I'm there with you. I just worry about the quarterback and.

[Andy Holloway]

He had a lot of better numbers. Sorry, go ahead. Mike, he's.

[Mike Wright]

He lines up in the slot and like he fits so many of the of the checkboxes that you want from a later round. Tight end of high draft capital. Very, very athletic lines up in the slot. Like they. He kind of already had a mini breakout and people are still drafting him like that didn't happen or they're just afraid of Preston Williams because the Mike Kasiki's breakout did align very noticeably with when Preston Williams left the year with an acl.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. From week nine on when Preston Williams was out of the way, Mike Gasecki last year was the tight end seven. He was very good. And so I, I do think with the lack of pass catching running backs, I think those three options if Fitzmagic is the quarterback will all be able to be good enough. I just worry about when TUA comes in.

[Andy Holloway]

All right, that'll do it. For today's show we want to thank Pristine Auction. Here's some sweet values that some listeners got on some sports memorabilia at Pristine auction. A Kenny Golladay signed mini helmet for $67. Smooth Miles Sanders signed Eagles football for $61. Blake Jarwin Mike a signed jersey $1.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, right.

[Andy Holloway]

Not really. It was $35 but basically free.

[Mike Wright]

It was not me but I didn't realize they had Blake Jarwin gear.

[Andy Holloway]

Mike just bids them up for other people. He goes and bids all the Blake Jarwin gear up.

[Jason Moore]

Mike wins enough of his own.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah. Pristineauction.com use our code ballers when you sign up. You'll get a $10 credit which would turn that Blake Jarwin jersey into a $25 jersey. Check them out at pristine auction.com Otherwise, that is it. We'll be back on Thursday with another division breakdown.

[Mike Wright]

I hope you learned something, because I. We all did.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, you learned that Fitzpatrick is number one.

[Mike Wright]

That's right.

[Jason Moore]

Moving them up.

[Mike Wright]

Goodbye.

[Jason Moore]

Thank you for listening to another episode of the Fantasy Footballers Podcast. Join our fantasy football community on jointhefoot.com and follow us on Twitter the FFballers and Foot Gland. Don't forget about Omaha Steaks Grand Summer Grill Out Package. We're talking Omaha Steaks, bacon wrapped filet mignons plus pork chops, chicken, kielbasa and more delivered right to your door. Visit Omaha Steaks.com type footballers in the search bar to shop the Summer Grill packs today and this week only, Omaha Steaks is adding four burgers and four gourmet jumbo franks. Free with your order.