Fantasy Footballers Podcast - Episode: AFC East Breakdown, Kaboodles of Advice
Release Date: July 26, 2018
Hosts: Andy Holloway, Jason Moore, Mike "The Fantasy Hitman" Wright

Introduction

In this episode of the Fantasy Footballers Podcast, hosts Andy Holloway, Jason Moore, and Mike Wright delve into an in-depth analysis of the AFC East for the upcoming 2018 NFL season. They address listener questions, provide strategic advice for fantasy football drafts, and offer comprehensive breakdowns of each team within the division.

Listener Q&A: Draft Strategy in 12-Team Half-Point PPR League (04:28 - 09:18)

Question from Ben (04:28):
"I'm in a 12 team half point PPR league where we start three wide receivers, two running backs, a flex, tight end, and quarterback. Do you value wide receivers more because you're starting more, or do you value running backs more because of the depth you can get later in drafts at wide receiver?"

Discussion Highlights:

• Mike Wright (04:58):
  Emphasizes that the league format heavily influences draft strategy.

  "Your league format definitely dictates how you draft. It makes wide receivers more important." [05:37]

• Andy Holloway:
  Breaks down the point differentials, noting the significant gap between top running backs and wide receivers.

  "The difference between Todd Gurley's finish last year total Fantasy points, half point league... the number one guy... doesn't represent everything." [08:16]

• Jason Moore (07:24):
  Agrees with prioritizing running backs within the first five picks but acknowledges the value of wide receivers later on.

  "It's a supply demand situation. I'm far more confident going wide receiver..." [07:48]

Conclusion:
In a 12-team half-point PPR league starting three wide receivers, the hosts recommend prioritizing running backs early in the draft due to their higher and more consistent point potential. However, they also acknowledge the importance of securing quality wide receivers to fill the starting slots, suggesting a balanced approach that favors running backs in the initial rounds before bolstering the wide receiver corps.

AFC East Breakdown (10:47 - 45:44)

1. New England Patriots

Overview: The Patriots remain the dominant force in the AFC East, even amidst roster changes and off-season challenges.

Key Points:

• Roster Changes:
  Addition of Sony Michel in the first round, maintaining a strong running back committee with Rex Burkhead and James White.

  "They also have big news. Julian Edelman, the suspension, four games, he's out." [12:44]

• Quarterback Analysis:
  Tom Brady's enduring excellence is scrutinized, with hosts debating his ranking among top quarterbacks.

  "Why can he not be the number one quarterback this season?" [13:39]

• Mike Wright's Take:
  Despite questions about potential infighting and aging, Mike rates the Patriots at 10 wins, emphasizing their stability and talent.

  "I've got them at 10... The demise of the Patriots only barely. Double digit victory." [17:06]

• Running Back Strategy:
  Discussion on the value of Sony Michel vs. Rex Burkhead, with a focus on Burkhead's efficiency and role.

  "Rex Burkhead was extremely efficient. He's got top 15 upside." [20:53]

• Rob Gronkowski's Value:
  Jason Moore highlights Gronk's consistent performance and potential value in the second round.

  "He's just dominant and at the finally getting the right price." [22:26]

Conclusion:
The Patriots are projected to continue their strong performance with a stable roster and strategic additions. Tom Brady remains a top-tier quarterback, and the running back duo of Sony Michel and Rex Burkhead provides depth and flexibility.

2. Buffalo Bills

Overview: The Bills face uncertainty with changes in their offensive lineup, impacting their fantasy football value.

Key Points:

• Offensive Line Concerns:
  Significant losses in the offensive line have led Pro Football Focus to rank them 29th, a notable drop from last year's 7th position.

  "We've lost three starters on the offensive line... projected to be the 20th best this year." [28:21]

• Running Back Situation:
  Lashawn McCoy remains a focal point, though his volume is uncertain with the departure of Dion Lewis.

  "Lashawn McCoy was going to be the one volume filled bright spot of this team." [26:54]

• Wide Receiver Depth:
  Kelvin Benjamin emerges as a valuable target in PPR leagues, being the number one receiver on the team despite injuries and inefficiency issues.

  "Kelvin Benjamin is being drafted as the 48th wide receiver off the board." [29:55]

• Quarterback Prospects:
  Josh Allen's potential and the possibility of Sam Darnold taking over in future games are discussed, adding unpredictability to the QB position.

  "Josh Allen's the quarterback, it's going to be something." [31:30]

Conclusion:
The Bills present a mixed bag for fantasy players, with gaps in their offensive line and uncertainties at running back. However, Kelvin Benjamin offers value in PPR formats, and the quarterback situation could provide late-season opportunities.

3. Miami Dolphins

Overview: The Dolphins are attempting to rebound with new additions and a revamped offensive strategy, though challenges remain.

Key Points:

• Offensive Dynamics:
  Addition of players like Jordan Matthews aims to compensate for Julian Edelman's suspension, but instability persists with multiple receivers and a struggling offensive line.

  "It's a mess here and I think you should take a shot though at least late in your draft between picking your guy, Jordan Matthews or Kenny Britt." [25:09]

• Running Backs:
  Kenyon Drake and Kalen Ballage are highlighted for their explosive potential, despite concerns about Ballage's ability to break away from defenders.

  "He's explosive. If you're telling me he's not going to be able to have some breakaway plays." [33:48]

• Wide Receiver Analysis:
  Devonte Parker's unpredictable fantasy performance is a key focus, with potential for either significant production or minimal impact based on team performance.

  "There is a lot of unknown on this roster." [37:04]

• Quarterback Evaluation:
  Josh McCown and Sam Darnold's roles are uncertain, with potential turnovers and a struggling offensive line affecting their performance.

  "Josh McCown, I still firmly believe, enters week one as the starter." [46:07]

Conclusion:
The Dolphins offer high-risk, high-reward opportunities in fantasy football. Key players like Devonte Parker and Kenyon Drake could provide significant upside, but inconsistencies in the roster and offensive line present challenges.

4. New York Jets

Overview: The Jets grapple with offensive inefficiencies and an uncertain quarterback situation, impacting their fantasy football prospects.

Key Points:

• Running Back Depth:
  Isaiah Crowell is a topic of debate, with opinions split on his efficiency and volume.

  "I think Crowell will not be efficient with the touches that he gets... he is a grinder." [41:25]

• Wide Receiver Options:
  Robbie Anderson and Elijah McGuire offer potential value late in drafts, though their consistency remains a concern.

  "Robbie Anderson last season burst on the scene... a lot of unknown on this roster." [38:50]

• Quarterback Carousel:
  The quarterback position is unstable with Josh McCown as the starter and Sam Darnold potentially taking over due to injuries.

  "Josh McCown has to establish the passing game last year because they were coming back in a lot of games." [40:45]

• Offensive Line Issues:
  The Jets' offensive line struggles rank them poorly, limiting the effectiveness of their running game and quarterback efficiency.

  "Isaiah Crowell is going to be something... offensive lines ranked as the 31st best in the league." [37:18]

Conclusion:
The Jets present limited fantasy value due to offensive line weaknesses and an unstable quarterback situation. Running backs like Isaiah Crowell and wide receivers such as Robbie Anderson offer potential late-round picks, but their effectiveness may be hampered by team inefficiencies.

Strategic Insights and Conclusions

• Running Backs vs. Wide Receivers:
  In leagues starting three wide receivers, prioritizing running backs early is crucial due to their higher and more consistent point potential. However, securing quality wide receivers remains important to fill the starting slots effectively.

• Team-Specific Strategies:

  • Patriots: Focus on securing stable running backs and leveraging Tom Brady's consistent performance.
  • Bills: Target Kelvin Benjamin for value in PPR formats while monitoring the quarterback situation for late-season pickups.
  • Dolphins: Embrace high-risk players like Devonte Parker and Kenyon Drake for potential upside despite roster instability.
  • Jets: Consider late-round running backs and wide receivers with potential for breakout performances, keeping in mind the team's offensive line challenges.

• Quarterback Considerations:
  Depending on league formats, investing in one or two quarterbacks early can provide stability, especially in leagues requiring multiple starting QBs. Players like Josh Allen or Sam Darnold may offer late-season value despite early uncertainties.

Final Thoughts

The AFC East poses a variety of opportunities and challenges for fantasy football players. By understanding each team's dynamics and strategic draft positioning, fantasy managers can optimize their rosters to maximize their chances of success in the 2018 NFL season.

Notable Quotes:

• Mike Wright:

  "Your league format definitely dictates how you draft. It makes wide receivers more important." [05:37]

• Andy Holloway:

  "The difference between Todd Gurley's finish last year total Fantasy points... doesn’t represent everything." [08:16]

• Jason Moore:

  "It's a supply demand situation. I'm far more confident going wide receiver..." [07:48]

• Mike Wright:

  "I've got them at 10... The demise of the Patriots only barely. Double digit victory." [17:06]

• Mike Wright:

  "Rex Burkhead was extremely efficient. He's got top 15 upside." [20:53]

For More Insights:

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