AFC East Breakdown + Late Round Strategy - Fantasy Football Podcast for 7/10

Summary

Fantasy Footballers Podcast Summary
Episode: AFC East Breakdown + Late Round Strategy
Release Date: July 10, 2025

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Introduction

In this episode of the Fantasy Footballers Podcast, hosts Andy Holloway, Jason Moore, and Mike "The Fantasy Hitman" Wright delve into an in-depth analysis of the AFC East division and discuss strategies for late-round picks in fantasy football drafts. Skipping over advertisements and non-content segments, the trio provides valuable insights for fantasy managers aiming to optimize their teams for the upcoming season.

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AFC East Division Breakdown

1. Buffalo Bills

The Bills maintain their status as a powerhouse within the AFC East, continuing their dominant run with six straight division titles and consistent playoff appearances.

• Performance Overview:
  "Buffalo wins it thirteen and four last year, a runaway division winner" (19:08). This reflects their sustained excellence since 2019, making them perennial favorites in the division.

• Key Players:
  Josh Allen remains the cornerstone of their offense. However, the team’s depth beyond Allen presents challenges for fantasy managers.

  • Jason Moore: "you literally don't know what you're getting because you've got players like Dalton Kincaid that are disappointed" (24:00).
  • Andy Holloway: "I worry about this offense because of how much they want to run the ball" (25:43).

• Fantasy Implications:
  While Allen continues to be a top-tier quarterback option, the lack of consistent high-end wide receivers like Stefan Diggs and Keon Coleman may limit the Bill's fantasy upside beyond the quarterback position.

2. Miami Dolphins

The Dolphins have been identified as a "question mark" within the division, struggling with offensive consistency and overall performance.

• Last Season’s Performance:
  "they projected win total last year of ten and a half, it's up to eleven and a half this year" (23:11). Despite high expectations, their actual performance fell short, with offensive inefficiencies being a significant concern.

• Roster Changes:

  • New Additions: Darren Waller returns to Miami, aiming to bolster their tight end position.
  • Quarterback Updates: Dak Prescott is reportedly fully healthy and set to start, but offensive line concerns linger.
  • Injuries: Zach Jackson reports Jerome Ford as the starter, despite ongoing uncertainties around other running backs like Quinshawn Judkins.

• Fantasy Implications:
  The Dolphins' lackluster wide receiver performance and unstable running back situation make them a risky option for fantasy drafts. Their offensive struggles translate to limited fantasy production opportunities.

3. New England Patriots

Projected to experience a resurgence under new leadership, the Patriots are aiming to climb out of the lower tier of the division.

• Coaching and Leadership:
  "Mike Vrabel, a defensive head coach" (54:37), brings a fresh approach to the team's dynamics, focusing on both offense and defense improvements.

• Key Players:

  • Stefan Diggs: Expected to remain a critical asset for the Patriots, providing a reliable target for quarterback Drake May.
  • Travis Kelce Replacement: With key additions like Matt Collins and potential target consolidation, the tight end position sees strategic enhancements.

• Fantasy Implications:
  The Patriots' investment in offensive line and strategic drafting could yield better fantasy outcomes, especially if key players like Diggs and potential new targets perform as expected.

4. New York Jets

The Jets are anticipated to continue their struggles within the AFC East, grappling with coaching changes and quarterback instability.

• Performance Overview:
  Last season’s record of five and twelve reflects ongoing challenges, and the addition of Justin Fields introduces both hope and uncertainty.

• Roster Changes:

  • Quarterback: Justin Fields takes over from Aaron Rodgers, bringing a dual-threat dynamic but also inconsistency.
  • Wide Receivers: Garrett Wilson remains a standout, while additions like Nick Westbrook-Akin and Alexander Mattison aim to enhance the receiving corps.

• Fantasy Implications:
  Justin Fields presents a high-upside, potentially mispriced quarterback option for fantasy drafts. However, the overall offensive instability may limit their reliability, making them a speculative pick for late-round managers.

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Late Round Running Back Strategy

A significant portion of the episode is dedicated to discussing strategies for drafting running backs in the late rounds, addressing whether to prioritize backup running backs or those with standalone value.

• Key Considerations:

  • League Size Impact:
    "If I'm in a 14-team league where I know that the waiver wire is going to be thin, perhaps I am more inclined to take my insurance running backs" (07:54).
    In larger leagues, securing reliable backups becomes crucial due to limited waiver options.

  • Player Situations:
    "It depends on what round you're in... who else is available" (12:07).
    Managers should assess individual player situations, such as injury vulnerabilities and offensive roles, rather than adhering to a strict backup strategy.

• Notable Candidates:

  • Jordan Mason: Viewed as a valuable late-round pick due to his potential upside if an injury occurs.
  • Trey Benson: Recommended for situations where backup options are scarce and predictable substitutions are necessary.

• Host Opinions:

  • Mike Wright: "Rather than having an insurance running back, you should focus on standalone value that can contribute regardless of starter performance" (11:32).
  • Jason Moore: Emphasizes drafting players with trade value and standalone potential, avoiding those who are merely a fallback option.

• Strategic Insights:
  The hosts advocate for a nuanced approach, evaluating each potential pick based on individual team dynamics and player potential rather than following a one-size-fits-all backup strategy.

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Notable News and Updates

Throughout the episode, the hosts share various updates and newsworthy items relevant to the fantasy football landscape:

• Dak Prescott's Health:
  "Dak Prescott says he is fully healthy and will be a full participant at the starting training camp" (15:08).

• Jerome Ford's Role in Cleveland Browns:
  Concerns arise over Ford's starting status over rookie Quinshawn Judkins, potentially affecting Cleveland's running back depth.

• Joe Mixon’s Availability:
  "Reports indicate Mixon should be ready for training camp but is dealing with foot ankle issues" (18:02).

• Justin Fields’ Impact:
  Fields is viewed as a high-upside quarterback option, with discussions around his ability to lead the Jets despite their overall team struggles.

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Conclusion and Wrap-Up

The episode concludes with a recap of the AFC East projections and the importance of strategic late-round drafting. The hosts emphasize the need for flexibility and informed decision-making during drafts to navigate the complexities of team dynamics and player performance.

• Division Predictions:

  • Buffalo Bills: Clear favorites to top the division.
  • New England Patriots: Expected to improve, potentially securing second place.
  • New York Jets: Likely to remain at the bottom, barring unforeseen breakthroughs.
  • Miami Dolphins: Positioned in between, with potential for slight improvement but facing significant challenges.

• Final Advice:
  "Don’t be a chalk, do something different," advises Mike Wright (02:15), encouraging managers to seek unique strategies beyond conventional wisdom to gain an edge in their leagues.

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Key Quotes with Timestamp Attribution

• Jason Moore:

  • "The most important division to get right is the AFC East." (02:05)
  • "You don't win your league at the draft; your selection of that backup is what makes the difference." (22:54)

• Andrew Holloway:

  • "I'm more bullish on the Dolphins' prospects going forward than the Colts." (02:53)
  • "I worry about the Bills' offense because of how much they want to run the ball." (25:43)

• Mike Wright:

  • "If you don't have a reliable backup, your team’s depth is compromised." (07:54)
  • "Justin Fields is probably going to start the whole season more so than other quarterbacks." (51:56)

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Final Thoughts

This episode provides a comprehensive analysis of the AFC East and offers strategic advice for draft preparations, particularly focusing on the importance of late-round running back selections. The Fantasy Footballers deliver actionable insights, supported by detailed player and team evaluations, ensuring that listeners are well-equipped to make informed decisions for their fantasy teams.

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For more detailed strategies and updates, tune in to future episodes and explore the Ultimate Draft Kit at UltimateDraftKit.com.

Transcript

[Andy Holloway]

This message is brought to you by apple pay no matter where you're going this summer odds are you'll need to pay for a few things like a ride share a souvenir or dinner at that spot on your bucket list instead of digging for your wallet every time just use apple pay it's accepted anywhere you see the contactless symbol and all it takes is a tap with iphone or apple watch the best part is you'll still earn the card rewards points and cash back you love and easy setup now easier travels later with apple pay terms apply ready to make a play for your future southern new hampshire university has hundreds of career focused degrees you can earn totally online no set class times means you never have to miss a game and low tuition means you can still dominate a few leagues on the side no wonder more than two hundred thousand people have made southern new hampshire university their their first pick visit snhu edu footballers to get started that's snhu edu footballers welcome to the fantasy footballers podcast with your hosts andy holloway jason moore and mike wright.

[Mike Wright]

Welcome in thursday july tenth mike the fantasy hitman jason moore andy holloway the fantasy footballers podcast back at it back with you more talk talk about football talkie.

[Jason Moore]

Talk talk another division yep we are.

[Mike Wright]

In the midst of our divisional overviews looking at the breakdown of the afc east on today's episode some say the.

[Jason Moore]

Most important division to get right is that true i you'll find out okay.

[Mike Wright]

I thought you had more insight than.

[Jason Moore]

The comments well i was leaving it for the show but we're doing the afc east and the miami dolphins are.

[Mike Wright]

They'Re definitely question mark one of the bigger question mark weird wild card teams.

[Jason Moore]

That exist you could have the overall wide receiver one on that team you could have draft picks that you throw into a furnace because that team still can't figure out the offense does it.

[Mike Wright]

Feel like they went eight nine last.

[Jason Moore]

Year no because they did it does.

[Mike Wright]

Not feel that way which i believe that was the colts record correct that we just went over in our last episode also did not feel that way also did not feel that way but.

[Andy Holloway]

I would say that we're all probably more bullish on the dolphins prospects going forward than the colts i yeah i.

[Mike Wright]

Mean to be fair we i think picked the colts to finish second in.

[Jason Moore]

The division i feel like we just got kind of bullied into that by.

[Mike Wright]

Jason'S strong arm like don't be chalk yeah don't do what they did last year or what the odds say do.

[Andy Holloway]

Something different i i'm guessing one of us picks the dolphins to be second in the division again this year we'll.

[Mike Wright]

Find out later in the show but happy to have you with us we got a good quick question of the show today quick question of the day for the show i don't really know what's happening we also have some news to talk about or at least some rumors more things to get into the ultimate draft kit i put in some updates this morning was going through an auditing a handful of teams as we often do you can see all of those updates at ultimate draft kit dot com all of our player projections with stat projections for everybody and the draft analyzer available right now as well so you can import your team from any platform and find out what we think about it where your strengths and weaknesses are other teams in your league they get a grade now as well and a reminder we're three shows a week for the month of july tuesday thursday.

[Jason Moore]

Saturday oh man lawns stand no chance.

[Mike Wright]

No you can mow your lawn any.

[Jason Moore]

Of three days or if you're in arizona you know spraying a little little.

[Mike Wright]

Spritz on your turf yeah yeah i mean we don't i guess is there was there value to that routine to which the mowing i guess the value is the natural grass that is cool to the touch yeah burn your feet.

[Jason Moore]

I have heard great things about it i mean like of course when you're young and someone brings up that you're like hey yard work no absolutely not i'm not doing chores but as we've gotten older i am i am a bit envious of the other dads out there that can go out there on saturday morning because it's nice outside yep and then they mow their lawn not.

[Mike Wright]

Here it's nice where they're at i understand we know how you stand on.

[Andy Holloway]

Physical movement right like you're actually envious of people going out and mowing their.

[Mike Wright]

Lawn yes mike i don't know if.

[Jason Moore]

It was a shame there is value to work there is value to physical labor you feel good about yourself thank.

[Mike Wright]

You i tried to tell jason all of this stuff last week someone just was rejecting it wholeheartedly someone just came.

[Jason Moore]

Out with a new ad campaign where they were proving to people like measuring i don't endorphins i don't know but they're just like a measurement of something of satisfaction and feeling good and the outcome is when you're doing chores you actually feel better than the dopamine hits that you're getting like from social media and all this other bull crap of.

[Andy Holloway]

Course i agree completely it's just what chores are you doing for me you wouldn't even change your air filter you.

[Mike Wright]

Didn'T change your air filter there is.

[Jason Moore]

A riding mower jason all right okay a little bit more interested when i say i'm envious i'm not talking about a push mower we can't even bully him into work yeah this guy but.

[Mike Wright]

He does want us to give him credit for spreadsheet work i want to.

[Andy Holloway]

Work on a computer that's where i want my work to be giving me.

[Jason Moore]

Endorphins you could do the lawn and.

[Mike Wright]

Your computer far too inspired by wally far too inspired all right let's go ahead and jump into that quick question.

[Jason Moore]

Look at those guys they're living good.

[Mike Wright]

Lives will said do you prefer to draft backup running backs for your starters or go for guys who will get the most work if their starter goes down regardless of the team so i.

[Jason Moore]

Would say that there are many variables here of league size certainly matters.

[Mike Wright]

You.

[Jason Moore]

Know because like if i'm in a fourteen teamer where i know that the waiver wire is going to be thin perhaps i am more inclined to take my insurance running backs the issue with it is at this point we all have our pick we all think we know who would get the primary work should a starter miss time sometimes you're right about that sometimes you're very wrong and you get left holding the bag of like i rostered this backup running back my starter goes down and now my backup running back isn't even the guy and someone else ends up usurping and taking over so that's an issue by itself and in but for the most part in the draft if i'm drafting a backup i'm taking somebody else's because it's a that is a ceiling play because if if some of one of my opponents starters go down and i get there i get the true starter for that team my team is so much better if i get my insurance running back it's just it's a floor my team stays exactly the same.

[Andy Holloway]

Theory get worse like when your main starter goes down and the backup comes in if you've got that guy your team still got worse yes so yeah i usually focus on just i don't really care whether they're on my roster or not to be completely honest i usually care about the actual situation there's there's only you know most years three or four guys where i go into that season saying i would be willing to draft that specific backup because i think that there's value should the starter go down that's that that's all it.

[Jason Moore]

Is for me is there anyone else that you could think of top of mind besides because i think people that's.

[Mike Wright]

Who i was going to bring up.

[Jason Moore]

People are going to be excited that.

[Mike Wright]

Was going to be the counterpoint to kind of some of your perspective there.

[Jason Moore]

Is but that's just one situation correct.

[Mike Wright]

And that's how you have to view it situation by situation there is not a broad brush i mean we get the question every year do you draft the backups of your you know how much do you prioritize the backup almost to the point where it's like assumed you have to get the backup i don't think any of us subscribe to you have to get the backup correct but there are a handful of situations that i'm not going to if gurindo's on the board and i have cmc i am not looking elsewhere for some other potential injury backup i am getting i'm going to get garendo and that comes with the nuance of knowing that christian mccaffrey has been banged up and hurt and we know that guerrindo can be effective and that that i have confidence in that offense like i'm not going to blindly draft another backup just to have a different one on my team for ceiling play and shanahan has.

[Jason Moore]

Showed us that when like when mccaffrey's not healthy he tends to lean on one particular running back also a lot.

[Mike Wright]

Of the reason we draft the running backs that we have are because of situations and confidence in their offense and the running game and things like that so you know my answer was kind of neither i would prefer to spin those late flyers on a player that might have standalone value and has upside if an injury happens so more of a committee like a tajay spears who we'll talk about or you know we recently talked about you know that kind.

[Jason Moore]

Of player i would say jordan mason.

[Andy Holloway]

Jordan mason yeah jordan mason's a great.

[Mike Wright]

Example if they're going to get some work in the offense anyways and then they benefit from an injury and become a top fifteen back that's my ideal situation although i think garendo in particular i would definitely target a player dealing with achilles tendonitis in both of your legs is a player i'm going to make sure that i'm protected it's also relative to the investment right like there's two sides of it there's okay i want the ceiling because if somebody else happens to get hurt i got two good guys now but that predicates your guy staying healthy yeah but there's the other side if you don't ensure that back and i mean imagine the other situation you have christian mccaffrey and you go out and get a backup for somebody else when mccaffrey gets hurt you have a backup for somebody else and their starter isn't hurt now you have nothing so it's a little bit of.

[Jason Moore]

A and they're all insurance things are for what ifs what if someone gets hurt and then that doesn't even factor in okay you draft who you think you're like i got my insurance guy i am locked and loaded now think of your bench management throughout the season that bench spot now goes to that one player you know what the rules of life are because you're the main character exactly yeah that's why the answer.

[Mike Wright]

To me is neither in most cases just get somebody that i believe will have trade value that i believe will have opportunity but still stands alone and doesn't just sit there like a lump on my bench just waiting for bad.

[Andy Holloway]

Things to happen i would say this year more than in recent years there's not many like you know like jordan mason's a great asset but i don't view him as just an insurance back yeah this year when i'm looking at like what are who are the insurance backs that i want okay garendo obvious situation there trey benson i think you've got an older commonly injured james conner ahead of him and then the news has been good out of camp yeah.

[Mike Wright]

I think he'd be good draft trey benson though if you weren't the conner manager yeah i have a hard time seeing somebody i mean because i mean.

[Andy Holloway]

It just depends on what round you're.

[Mike Wright]

In such a waste of a bench.

[Andy Holloway]

Spot for i mean obviously if if there is not an injury to connor you're you're getting nothing out of him it's a matter of how deep is the league what round are you in who else is available i'm not going to take trey benson over jordan mason you know who could actually be valuable.

[Mike Wright]

Is marshawn lloyd probably not i don't.

[Andy Holloway]

Think so i mean will shipley but then is it aj dillon like i don't think there's a lot of sure is it kareem hunt or you know they drafted a guy and they've still got elijah mitchell there there aren't a lot i'm looking most situations there's really like i feel like it's it's just kind of not a factor this year.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah and another way to look at it is braylon allen is you're when you're drafting someone like that you might just be setting your team up for week one if you stay with us throughout the season in the show we talk about in season like hey these are the players on friday that i'm going to toss on the back of my bench and let the weekend play.

[Mike Wright]

Out that's the best way to do.

[Jason Moore]

It and then we're also we'll get to a point in the season because we will get these questions every single week as time we start talking about how we're handling our leagues personally of okay it's week whatever eight i don't know my team's looking really good for the playoffs and at this point i'm looking to shape my team with some safety i want that safety net on the team i'm not looking for an additional ceiling player at this time so you know you got to stick with the show it's not a yeah there is absolutely no white black binary decision.

[Mike Wright]

For them you know jason says it every year we say it every year you don't win your league at the draft your selection of that backup it's really going to get hard because if you have other injuries on your team you cannot afford to roster somebody that you're just waiting for somebody to get hurt but i just looked at every team there are very few that's what.

[Andy Holloway]

I'M saying tyler lg yeah that's a good one would be someone that a bijan injury but but bijan being so young and built for a workhorse duty you just don't presume injury there as easy as you do with like a like a saquon who's older coming off you know a crazy workload and some.

[Mike Wright]

Of the other backs that you might want that don't profile to be the rb one necessarily are not quite in that category of pure backup undrafted you know the jalen warren caleb johnson situation both will get drafted right and there's a lot of those echler with brian robinson junior but eckler won't go the same place that a you know a pure backup like algier would go so don't over prioritize it yeah i think that's the biggest thing but gurindo i would i would grab i'd grab gurindo all right let's talk some news.

[Andy Holloway]

News and notes from around the league.

[Mike Wright]

It'S a little funny that i that i'm saying grab grindo because of all the teams that have surprised us with different backups over the years where players get.

[Jason Moore]

Hurt yes they forty nine and that's what i mean are one of them we assume it's grando right now by the time week one hits that night might not be true all right a.

[Mike Wright]

Little bit of news for you dak prescott says he is fully healthy and will be a full participant at the starting training camp startup training camp have.

[Jason Moore]

You seen him talking about george yeah he's loving him some george pickens right.

[Mike Wright]

Now we we all love george at this time of year man this is george's time but i think he's got great potential with dak tristan worfs buccaneers all pro left tackle likely going to miss the first couple of games of the regular season that is not something you want to hear when it comes to protecting mister baker mayfield or the runners there bucky irving trying to get off to a hot start he had surgery tristan worsted on his right knee on tuesday so pay attention to those lines they will get him back though this one it's hard to buy it but i'll report it zach jackson believes jerome ford is quote the starter for now will still play and probably start.

[Jason Moore]

Early in the season cleveland browns jerome ford the team that just spent a second round pick on quinshawn judkins and.

[Mike Wright]

Barely barely brought jerome ford back to.

[Andy Holloway]

This roster they had him take a price cut they said hey you want to come back we don't want to pay you what you're i mean he.

[Mike Wright]

Said yes because no one else will.

[Andy Holloway]

Pay him right exactly so i don't know this is the time of year where you're always going to be like the rookie's going to have to prove it and then they prove it judkins.

[Mike Wright]

Was the one that we said wasn't going to have to prove it and then this came out the next day.

[Jason Moore]

It'S annoying it is something to pay attention to though as like we'll see if that drumbeat gets louder like jerome ford when he's the starter he has been quite fantasy relevant yeah it matters.

[Andy Holloway]

And especially like for the judkins ranking like i personally matter more for that after this report i did not change my like i have judkins as the week one starter and if this continues up you know through training camp into preseason and it really seems like that obviously i will adjust those rankings i do not take this kind of guesswork report as you know this isn't coming from the head coach saying jerome ford's.

[Mike Wright]

Our dude yeah we're going to learn all these situations with the rookies are going to be told you know we'll get a lot more information when you see who's running with the first team throughout camp and where the trust levels are and what the coaches say and this is just stage one speculation but you know they're all they're all going to have to prove themselves henderson judkins everyone but jinty right he's good he.

[Andy Holloway]

Proved it yeah he did that in.

[Mike Wright]

College yeah all right we are going.

[Jason Moore]

To i would throw in this real quick this joe mixon news i think brooks just dropped this in for us that there's reports that he should be ready for training camp but he is dealing with foot ankle issues as someone.

[Andy Holloway]

Who yeah he was on a walking boot a couple of weeks ago i.

[Jason Moore]

Said he had ankle issues last year and you know some of the late season decline is being called upon you're like hey remember he had an ankle issue so for it to already or still be bothering him you got to keep an eye on it all right.

[Mike Wright]

We are going to take a quick break and we're going to jump into our afc east breakdown.

[Andy Holloway]

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[Jason Moore]

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[Andy Holloway]

Let'S get divisional.

[Mike Wright]

All right this is our third episode this time breaking down the afc east we're looking at those big off season changes to the rosters players rookies coaches looking at the offenses our expectations and how they could function the big questions around these four teams within the afc east and how they're going to impact your fantasy football team and then we'll weigh in with our you know order of how we think the division is going to finish last year like it has for i believe five straight years yep buffalo wins it thirteen and four last year a runaway division winner and they've won the afcs five straight years like i said it's been a really good run i mean since twenty nineteen they made the playoffs in twenty nineteen and then they won five straight divisions and so you've got six years in the playoffs and six years of falling short coming up short so that's been kind of hanging over the bills now for a couple of years getting through the afc can this be the year that they get you know all the way into the super bowl i mean every year it's it's kind of you look at them and you look at their roster and you say this is certainly they're one of the favorites that's kind of where they've been thirteen and four year they had a projected win total last year of ten and a half it's up to eleven and a half this year number two in points per game i think last year one of the big storylines was hey what does josh allen do without stefan diggs and the answer is when the mvp oh excellent so big questions around buffalo have to do with fantasy players discerning value beyond josh allen to me yes because josh allen he's locked and loaded as a you know you take him high in drafts if you want to you know what you're getting with josh allen but beyond that the pass catchers you literally don't know what you're getting because you've got players like dalton kincaid that are disappointed and a whole hodgepodge of wide receivers khalil shakir yes it was kind of a breakout but it wasn't a hugely impactful fantasy breakout and keon coleman rookie wide receiver a lot of expectations gets banged up has a disappointing rookie year they add joshua palmer and then dalton kincaid story has been nothing but fantasy disappointment.

[Andy Holloway]

Thus far yeah i mean there's not a lot to love from a great isn't it weird great offense i think it shows how good josh allen is that he's got this hodgepodge of you know skill position guys and he i.

[Jason Moore]

Mean the two first round pass catchers.

[Andy Holloway]

Well i'm just saying quality talent they they're trying they're trying to you know they took keon coleman in the first that doesn't make keon coleman a really good player he's the question mark on the bills he's the guy that's like can he step on someone great or not and i i think most people after that rookie season were not bullish on keon coleman saying like oh he's going to be he's going to be.

[Mike Wright]

Absolutely elite twenty nine or twenty nine receptions that's not a lot that was.

[Jason Moore]

Really that was it yeah that was.

[Mike Wright]

It and i mean he had big plays for the team and then you had the news that he chipped a bone in his wrist in week nine which is going to be you know food for the excuse makers but it is a little strange that you have like the best three teams i think in the afc baltimore buffalo kansas city they all have like a hodgepodge of.

[Andy Holloway]

Past catchers it's no longer the travis kelsey and tyree kill dominating on the.

[Mike Wright]

Best offense or diggs or you know.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah it's or even mark andrews they've figured out how to piece together once you're paying for your quarterback just a room of people that's acceptable for your great quarterback but for fantasy purposes that's not great and furthermore i think for fantasy purposes i worry about this offense because of how much they want to run the ball succeed running the ball win running the ball you look at josh allen over the last several years and yeah he was he was great last year it's fantastic but he wasn't the quarterback one or two last year for the first time in forever he was the quarterback four and he didn't throw for well over four thousand yards like he was every year he threw for three thousand seven hundred yards and it's like if the team is really good which they project to be good they've got the fifth easiest strength of schedule projected coming into this year i think it's going to be more of the same where you're not really finding super fantasy gold on this roster outside of josh allen being a top five quarterback and hopefully you get a ton of rushing touchdowns from whichever running back you've you know decided to invest in.

[Mike Wright]

Which is an i mean the james cook discussion is one to be had passing percentage last year they were twenty ninth in the in the nfl yucky doo doo in twenty twenty two they ran it forty three percent of the time twenty twenty three they ran at fifty two percent of the time last year right at so that lowers your guaranteed passing game production that you were getting week to week it's not that he's not going to have games where it's it's you know outrageous and wonderful that happens but it's not as guaranteed when you pass at that level it's.

[Andy Holloway]

Funny because right now josh allen is still being drafted average draft position as the number one quarterback and i'm not sure he should be i mean obviously lamar jackson smoked him last year but.

[Jason Moore]

I don't know i'm he's my number.

[Andy Holloway]

One he is not my number one but he i mean this isn't an anti i'm going to double check it.

[Jason Moore]

What was he through week seventeen because he didn't play the final week of.

[Andy Holloway]

The year yeah that's he played the.

[Mike Wright]

One snap remember because he wanted to keep the games streak in a row so it messes up his fantasy finish because i think it was on a points per game basis he was pretty he had a couple of those dud games that they didn't need him baltimore miami on the roads single digit performances but you know plenty of number one overalls and you know the number that stands out to you is the total passing yardage on the season he was a forty five forty four forty two forty three and it's thirty seven last year so three thousand seven hundred points.

[Jason Moore]

Per game weeks one through seventeen and this is a six point passing touchdown he was at twenty six point eight qb three joe burrow was twenty seven point seven for qb two and lamar thirty points yeah yeah i mean yeah lamar had an outlier year though lamar.

[Andy Holloway]

Did have an outlier year but you would expect lamar right now to throw for more yards and run for more yards so i mean that's just when you're looking at the value in a draft and you're deciding whether to take these big expensive quarterbacks eileen lamar over josh allen right now with how the bills as a team look like they're.

[Jason Moore]

Set up to win so then when you're looking at the pass catchers do you have a pick for a guy who could actually step like shakira got the bag coleman is the second year.

[Andy Holloway]

I mean i would still take my shot on coleman and hope coleman over kincaid yeah personally i think you know.

[Mike Wright]

I hope the bag came after a wide receiver thirty nine season right and.

[Andy Holloway]

He was with a handful of weeks that you cared he was very good for this team right and he was the wide receiver thirty nine i think your only hope for a fantasy difference maker is that coleman develops into something.

[Mike Wright]

Much down yeah i'm with you i.

[Andy Holloway]

Think eleven twelve touchdowns completely agree with.

[Mike Wright]

That i think that coleman is the shot to take and you're also going to that shot's going to come in the eleventh twelfth round of fantasy drafts it's not going to come in the seventh round or sixth round where shakir might represent like the best target chair i think i'm with that i mean i do think dalton kincaid is sitting there as a bounce back candidate personally.

[Andy Holloway]

Post type sleeper yeah i mean he's.

[Mike Wright]

Going to be free he's going to be somebody that you can take a shot at it was it was not kind of bad though it was real real bad it was pretty useless bad kind of situation for kincaid i mean.

[Andy Holloway]

Tight ends are usually you're talking you're going to catch seventy percent of the balls you're going to catch seventy five percent of your passes you know the way that you're utilized it's a lot of easy stuff now there was more downfield stuff with dalton kincaid but he was he caught fifty eight percent of his passes and he didn't do much with it's not like oh well because he was catching fifty eight percent of his passes getting fourteen yards per he's at ten yards per reception he was terrible and i hope he was injured.

[Jason Moore]

Because wasn't there something yeah there was.

[Andy Holloway]

A report there was something that he was injured but i'm just hoping it's real and not just an excuse he.

[Jason Moore]

Missed three games with the knee but yeah there was because something there's a.

[Andy Holloway]

Story floating around watching him last year it was just so clear he wasn't.

[Jason Moore]

It and it was clear they were trying to they were trying to make dalton kincaid happen though like they kept having these designs it's funny because it.

[Mike Wright]

Feels like pits it feels like because they kept i mean kyle pitts lots of downfield rounds try to connect to him on those stuff but when those don't hit you have a horrible week but the but at least you have a roster of pass catchers where you have the opportunity to be maybe the best one yeah like he could legitimately.

[Andy Holloway]

Lead the team at target yeah you.

[Mike Wright]

You have that chance here you don't have digs and shakir's not that intimidating and coleman twenty nine catches last year so that's that's a possibility looking at james cook the big storyline for him this offseason has been touchdown regression he had three hundred percent times his financial regression well so yeah he's trying to get financial progression but he hasn't got it yet but sixteen rushing i'd like.

[Jason Moore]

This to return to the mean please.

[Mike Wright]

So let's be intellectually consistent here we know how much they want to run the football that's why you're being discouraged about certain aspects of the passing game that is all directly translating into the value of james cook and ray davis and whomever they want to get involved in the offense ty johnson so what.

[Andy Holloway]

You just said is where the pessimism comes in is that they have three running backs that are all three legitimately involved not like just a sprinkling in a smidge there you know this is james cook was the running back eight awesome james cook played forty five percent of the snaps you know he's in a mega timeshare and how eight eighteen.

[Jason Moore]

Total touchdowns to put you at the running back eight is troubling but what.

[Mike Wright]

Does that regression look like if you're going to be a run heavy offense where he is definitely the most talented player i mean he was almost five a carry last year and these touchdowns didn't all just come in one game you had so many of them that there were four games in the entire year he didn't score so that says to me it's like he was the running back eight he's being drafted as a running back fourteen if that goes from sixteen total touchdowns to i guess he had eighteen total sixteen on the ground but if it drops to twelve which is super reasonable for a team that was number two in points per.

[Andy Holloway]

Game he'll be great if it drops.

[Mike Wright]

Twelve but i mean if it drops.

[Andy Holloway]

Seven which i think is totally in the range of outcomes for him considering he had had what his career high was two before last year am i.

[Jason Moore]

Misremembering that i mean crazy low well.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah the year before he had a higher snap percentage in total two went from two to sixteen he had six.

[Jason Moore]

Total touchdowns in twenty three but he had two on the ground so i'm going to go look at adp he's.

[Mike Wright]

In he's in the fourth round these.

[Jason Moore]

Are the couple running backs going right before james cook do you prefer james cook over any of these guys let's go kyren i would take kyron chase.

[Andy Holloway]

Brown or take chase brown breeze i would take james cook yeah i would.

[Mike Wright]

Too i have an agreement with everything.

[Jason Moore]

And then directly after james cook ken bone walker i would say james cook i'd say james cook alvin camara i'd probably take cook joe mixon mixon i.

[Andy Holloway]

Would rather have mixing at that value later in a draft it's the same round though i would probably take mix.

[Jason Moore]

In ahead of cook okay that one's close then adp wise even though we are concerned about the regression seems like he's going that's kind of why i.

[Mike Wright]

Brought it up he's not being drafted as rba he's not being drafted with those expectations and you know there are you got to reward a player in some ways for what they do right like not just i don't like just.

[Andy Holloway]

Not financially.

[Mike Wright]

I just don't like like he's got such a brief career i don't want to just look at the first two seasons and be like that's his his average touchdowns per year for his career is going to be two like that's not a reasonable situation in fact last year one of the reasons he was a favorite in fantasy drafts was because we saw that number as.

[Andy Holloway]

Ridiculous yeah yeah we knew it was going to go up but you also have to you know he's one hundred ninety pound back so it's like he doesn't project to be a sixteen rushing.

[Mike Wright]

Touchdown type of guy right so they start the year against baltimore that's going to be fun i think that's the first game of the year or i guess well done nfl so baltimore at home first week and then the jets miami and new orleans he had seven.

[Jason Moore]

Touchdowns from inside the five yeah wait.

[Andy Holloway]

Who'S home is it baltimore or in.

[Mike Wright]

Buffalo it's in buffalo and then it's the jets on the road and the miami and new orleans at home so you know still definitely the favorites in this division they you know sean mcdermott's been there a long time nine years joe brady continues what got them a lot of success last year and you know is it brandon bean is that their general manager am i getting the first name right here there's too many.

[Jason Moore]

Beans doing general managing kyle said correct.

[Mike Wright]

For you you know he is so annoyed with the view that they don't have the weapons they need on the offensive side of the football because and for good measure you go out and you score the second most points in the in the league you get an mvp at quarterback you succeed and then it's like your expectation is we got to find somebody flash here at wide.

[Jason Moore]

Receiver no you got to win a.

[Mike Wright]

Super bowl yeah you got to win a super bowl so miami eight and nine somehow last year their win total though before the season projected for ten by vegas which they didn't accomplish this year it's at eight and a half does that surprise you at all or is it more indicative of just the afc east because that's how it feels.

[Jason Moore]

To me yeah i mean you had the jets and the pats you would think that miami should pull out four wins there at least three last year.

[Mike Wright]

Was a step back on offense twenty second of points per game eighteenth in yards per game the big plays for miami they evaporated they had only forty five total plays all year long of twenty plus yards that is the opposite of what you expected for miami that was thirty first in the nfl cool so you basically became the least explosive.

[Andy Holloway]

Team yeah least explosive down the field and then also you couldn't run the ball in the short yardage area thirty first in epa per rush thirtieth in percentage of runs stuffed at the line because their offensive line was bad yeah.

[Mike Wright]

So for the record the least fun team to watch most of the time last year was miami if you if.

[Andy Holloway]

You can after week one week one was awesome they come out two is looking good he gets injured in week two and when he came back it was like please don't make me watch.

[Mike Wright]

That no it kind of reminded you of like when new orleans was going through different quarterbacks and you just have to watch it just takes so long to get down the field yeah and they couldn't run so you know their defense their defense was pretty good that's one of the reasons why they could pull off an eight nine season well no ramsey now no ramsey but they had minka on that trade mike mcdaniel probably a hot seat coach at this point or close to it a warming seat.

[Andy Holloway]

His took us is a little.

[Jason Moore]

Warm and they're oc frank smith yep.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah sorry frank is that like a.

[Jason Moore]

Generic name yeah yeah it really is that what no offense mister smith but yeah my name is frank smith sure it is what's your real name i sell insurance yeah like that's that's my.

[Mike Wright]

Burner name player subtractions this year johnny smith raheem mostert is gone and they added darren waller they added nick westbrook akini to the wide receiver room from tennessee and they added alexander madison they.

[Jason Moore]

Loved waller's tape from last year so we got to get that guy on.

[Mike Wright]

The team yeah supposedly waller only wanted to play for miami to come back.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah so which is good because there were quotes about i don't know if you remember how he ended up like walking away deciding he doesn't want to play football but it was basically he was in there and they were calling a bunch of run plays in a row and he's like why am i in here blocking and then he's like i don't want to play football anymore this guy wants to like that was from waller you're a tight end bro no no no he's a he's a pass catcher he's he's he is so the fact that he is like i'm willing to come back but i only want to go to miami makes me feel like at least you know he's looking at the johnny smith target machine from last year i think he had one hundred eleven targets something like that and hoping that he can fill that role now thirty three year old darren waller who wasn't that great last time we saw him i don't expect him to even be able to replicate john who smith from this last year but it is worth noting like he might be more involved than we think in the target pecking order yeah when you.

[Mike Wright]

Lose john who we've been talking about target consolidation with waddle tyreek hn if tyreek like if the storyline with tyreek is that target consolidation does not equal more explosive plays again and tyreek's kind of done then that is even more of an argument to why waller could have a role none of us have him ranked in a way that we're foreseeing that right now correct and just.

[Jason Moore]

You guys might have a different opinion but like me watching tyree kill the film i don't look at him i'm like it's totally gone it just it.

[Mike Wright]

Didn'T i never saw anything that made me think he was gone at all.

[Jason Moore]

It was such a perplexing situation of like no he still seems okay maybe he's not maybe he's not as fast but he still seemed fast enough to be to be putting up more plays.

[Andy Holloway]

Than he did i mean yeah he wasn't slow but he didn't do what tyreek did so much every single year prior including the year prior which is run away from people i know he had the wrist injury but it's like how does that you know how does the wrist injury really cause maybe it was one of those things where they're not going to run him deep because a deep pass is less likely to be caught i don't know but once he had the ball in his hands i felt like he was a little.

[Mike Wright]

Bit different he had the third fastest time in the nfl on the field last year it was in week five hit twenty two point zero one miles per hour which by the way his teammate devon hn was the fourth highest at twenty one point nine three during the season and that's a good transition into the running game and whether devon achan can be a true rb one.

[Jason Moore]

For your team yep yeah he can.

[Mike Wright]

And hold up here you know the injury concerns are fair with devon hn if you have to rely on him to that degree any player is going to be more vulnerable for injury but last year he did hold up let.

[Andy Holloway]

Me tell you the target counts for devon hn with to a playing seven targets seven eight eight five four four nine seven seven seven it's like a you know call that number but those.

[Jason Moore]

Are like outrageous seven targets a game.

[Andy Holloway]

Is delicious those those are great twenty nine percent of his routes he was targeted that is fantasy gold a target is worth two and a half times a carrying and so i really like i'm very bullish on achan this year especially the post johnny smith trade yeah.

[Mike Wright]

And they're you know when you talked about the quick question of the day the backup situation with madison there and then jalen wright like theirs is a perfect example of if you have achan it's really tough to take a shot at who you think would be the backup because it's going to be it'll be a committee if hn went down it won't just be one guy we've.

[Jason Moore]

Seen that and jalen wright needs to i think jalen wright's a he's an interesting guy to put at the back of your bench just in case in a draft and see what happens at week one but he will need to.

[Mike Wright]

Improve like dramatically massively and madison was.

[Jason Moore]

Unfortunately effective he's just he he's a he's a fine player catch the football.

[Mike Wright]

He'S like if you get the default settings in madden for a running back and you haven't added points to anything else you just get the it's everything across the board is just regular that's.

[Andy Holloway]

How i view madison yeah i think that was true two years ago and then one of the little bars got removed on each one of those topics of like he's just a little he.

[Mike Wright]

Was good last year it was better.

[Jason Moore]

Last year than year before with scoring.

[Andy Holloway]

Touchdowns i think that i don't like how the coaches talk about alexander madison in the positive like they're they're including him very much as like part of their plans i just don't i don't think he's i don't think he's that good i hope it's ollie gordon they they spent a six round six round pick on ollie gordon this was a player who two years ago looked like he was going to be a sensational young big bodied running back and then had a down year last year fell to the sixth round but hopefully he could do something that would be a little bit more exciting but i agree with the assertion that you don't have any idea who the firm backup is and there probably isn't one should hn.

[Mike Wright]

Go down mostard and madison just swapped spots did you realize that yeah they just flip teams to be backups in.

[Jason Moore]

On the other person's team who would you rather have saved the m i'd.

[Mike Wright]

Rather have mostert yeah yeah rather mostert even at this age at this yeah just because there's more clarity in that backfield which we'll get to at some.

[Andy Holloway]

Point jalen i'm saying if you're a general manager oh right i thought you were saying as a fantasy would you rather have who would you rather have as the backup behind moster yeah me.

[Jason Moore]

Too really he man he was he.

[Andy Holloway]

Was not great he was he was.

[Mike Wright]

Pretty bad last year yeah they're both they're both pretty bad now that's why.

[Andy Holloway]

I'M hoping for ollie gordon not jalen wright or jalen wright i mean jalen wright is a you know two hundred and fifteen pound back that runs sub four four i love those he just looked he was so tremendously awful last year no vision you know coming into year two open your eyes man i hope that i hope that you know he figures out the scheme a little bit better because obviously if you get the guy the ball in space he's got the speed and the size to.

[Mike Wright]

Just take off if you draft jalen wall at his adp which is the last pick of the fifth round you are going to end the year fill.

[Jason Moore]

In the blank you will end the.

[Mike Wright]

Year pleasantly surprised hope what is the what is the new phraseology we have.

[Jason Moore]

Oh something hopelessly no no pessimistically happy i don't remember you as your phrase.

[Andy Holloway]

Bro it just comes out while i black out that's what happens i think.

[Jason Moore]

Jalen waddle at the back of the fifth early sixth round is worth drafting.

[Mike Wright]

Okay they play indianapolis in week one on the road the new england buffalo and the jets so divisional after the indie game shall we take a break and then talk about those jets we shall all right let's do it it what's up foot clam what are some things you love to do outdoors in the summer because the long days of summer are here that means more sun more light more time to be outside for us in arizona more time in that pool and the last thing you want to do is be stuck inside spending hours cooking and that is where our friends at factor come in factor's chef crafted dietitian approved meals arrive fresh and ready to eat taking the hassle out of eating well with forty five weekly menu options you can pick gourmet meals that fit your summer gains and goals you can choose from options like calorie smart protein plus keto and more i love the protein plus in fact we got a box the other day my son stole half of them and look all the meals are good there's not even like just you know you don't have to pick and choose one or two meals that you like they are all excellent they are easy to make and they make it easy for me to stick to my goals you can get started at factor meals dot com footballers fifty off and use the code footballers fifty off to get fifty percent off plus free shipping on your first box that is the code footballers fifty off at factormeals dot com footballers fifty off for fifty percent off plus free shipping factormeals dot com footballers fifty.

[Andy Holloway]

Off hilarious comedy is back on the big screen with the naked gun and it doesn't hold back only one man has the particular set of skills to lead a police squad and save the world lieutenant frank drebin junior played by liam neeson follows in his father's footsteps in the naked gun directed by akiva schaefer and from producer seth macfarlane with appearances from paul walter hauser pamela anderson liza koshy and many more the naked gun is a comedy that pulls no punches go see the naked gun only in theaters on august first.

[Mike Wright]

The jets were five and twelve last year after a preseason win total of nine and a half and aaron rodgers return they started out three and eight then the general manager got fired after week eleven this year we've adjusted the projected win total is five and a half i believe that is the lowest in the division am i wrong yes yes it is by far so new expectations new quarterbacks new questions around the jets twenty fourth in points per game will they fix it with justin fields at quarterback i don't know if that's going to happen i don't know if they have enough personnel to really get that done but that's why we're talking about them right now aaron glenn new head coach got a new offensive coordinator nathaniel hackett goodbye oh no and no more aaron rodgers no more devonte adams no more tyler conklin honk honk but we replaced those two hall of famers and the tight end with justin fields and josh reynolds and mason taylor and mason taylor.

[Andy Holloway]

That'S their tight end in the second round who i do think is you know a late round dart throw you could tyler conklin's vacating a lot of targets here and they're the depth chart for pass catchers on this team i mean this is why i love garrett wilson if you want to make the pro bowl case for garrett wilson it's like who are you throwing the ball to other than garrett wilson two hundred target case yeah for sure i mean the only the only thing against a two hundred target like if if there was a different quarterback here i'd probably project two hundred targets for garrett wilson but you know that justin fields is probably going to run the ball himself a lot and they won't just have him airing it out well the way.

[Mike Wright]

That they're going to win games this year seems like it's going to be that hard nosed recipe of you know aaron glenn getting in there trusting a running game where they like multiple backs playing defense they were third last year in total yards given up and fourth and passing yards given up so that is their strength and we also saw justin fields have success in more of a managerial quarterback situation in pittsburgh you don't want to necessarily put everything on his shoulders and that's not you know it just can go too many places that's that's what justin field struggles were in chicago it was like you got to do everything you got to figure everything out and yes you may make prolific runs or plays or throws but then you fumble and then you get sacked and then you fumble or throw a pick and that is just too much to put on him i feel.

[Andy Holloway]

Like it's all on him again though like last year he was very good for the steelers where it was he had a very good team around him you know he had a great coach.

[Jason Moore]

And it looks like he went four and two yeah he went to yeah.

[Andy Holloway]

That was that was what was so impressive when they decided to make the switch to russell wilson was you're a four and two successful team and you're going to you know russ is back and healthy and you're and you're going to go to russ and it looked brilliant at first because russ came out on fire they won more games he.

[Jason Moore]

Should have gone back yeah i mean.

[Andy Holloway]

We talked about on the steelers the last four games were a brutal schedule but i do i feel like this is justin fields back with the bears where he doesn't have the weapons around him enough to like i feel like it's all going to fall on him at the end of every game and he's not going to be able to overcome the bad team so that's justin.

[Mike Wright]

Fields on the field they're not projected to win very many games but justin fields the fantasy player on the bears was good for a time yes and.

[Andy Holloway]

I think he's going to be good for the jets too last year he was actually better than you realize i mean two years ago for the bears seventeen point seven fantasy points per game last year in the six starts eighteen point nine fantasy points per game he was not bad and it's because he runs the ball so freaking much were.

[Jason Moore]

You saying i'm saying that those points would put you as like a bottom of a top twelve quarterback yes gotcha.

[Andy Holloway]

And he is not being drafted there he's being drafted as the quarterback eighteen i think he's one of the most mispriced people in fantasy right now well.

[Mike Wright]

One of the questions that come along with justin fields is do you think he'll keep the job the whole year when you're going to yes because when you lose games which they're going to do it doesn't matter how well you're playing you you could get benched you could get some something could happen absolutely.

[Andy Holloway]

And i think it's an irrelevant thing when you're picking the quarterback eighteen in your fantasy draft like when you're picking the quarterback sixteen seventeen eighteen you're you're planning on streaming the position and you're probably not going to have a full season starter i do think that there's a good chance he starts the whole season more so than the guys you know in you know you look at the giants will russ start the whole season probably not they drafted you know jackson dart here it's like it's tyrod taylor behind him yeah if you make.

[Mike Wright]

A bunch of mistakes though and it's on you to lose that's when you could see a transition garrett wilson second most targets through three years in the history of the nfl and no one to compete with him and their head coach basically said get him the ball as much as possible that's their goal on offense which has to be your goal breeze hall jason has talked about breeze hall for three years in different with different adjectives yeah i think we've.

[Jason Moore]

Had a full traffic light with jason.

[Mike Wright]

Talk red yellow green i think it's.

[Andy Holloway]

More green yellow red yeah so look.

[Mike Wright]

I want to say this like it wasn't efficient or as effective or impressive on film last year but you still ended up with a season as horrible as it was for the jets where he still was the rb seventeen still can catch the football how intimidated are you by the third round draft price.

[Andy Holloway]

I'M very intimidated by a third round draft price i've got him as my running back seventeen kind of replicating what he did last year despite the fact that i mean you could see how it gets better for him he comes more into the form that he was his sophomore year more explosive plays and you know if that happens he'll demand more utilization he'll get the rock you know frequently however all of his fantasy goodness through his short career has really been propped up by the receiving game it's his work as a pass catcher that is what we want the most and i worry about that transitioning from an aaron rodgers check down quarterback to justin fields a scrambling quarterback when it comes to the not play called you know screen pass to breeze hall but just the improvised how many of those a game are going to go away.

[Mike Wright]

From bruce total pass attempts if they.

[Andy Holloway]

Want to win defensively yeah so i worry about breeze from that and then there's also talk about having all of the running backs involved you listen to aaron glenn and he's saying disgusting things for fantasy football like we have three starters at running back yeah it started.

[Mike Wright]

Really nice for braylon allen the first.

[Jason Moore]

How we know he's lying first four.

[Mike Wright]

Games braylon allen played you do not he was four point eight a carry it really slowed down you didn't get explosive plays and the team was terrible.

[Jason Moore]

The wild thing is sophomore year fourteen point nine points per game running back four for breeze for breeze last year thirteen point three a game again i know that's one point six per week that adds up but i think it's more of a the expectations of last year of him being drafted as i.

[Mike Wright]

Think he missed a game he did he would have been higher on that.

[Jason Moore]

Points per game wouldn't he in total points for sure hopefully in points per game but it's total points the he was like the what the a top three running back two years ago it's hard for me to remember that one.

[Andy Holloway]

Two years ago he's the running back.

[Jason Moore]

Four no no no this last sorry this past year in twenty twenty four you drafted him as oh yeah i.

[Andy Holloway]

Mean he was his average draft position was first round for sure so that's.

[Jason Moore]

Part of it is he let you down on the adp but yeah he was rb three by adp yeah in actuality of a points per game i.

[Mike Wright]

Mean jason talked about him on the dynasty podcast that we released yesterday so you can check that out if you want a more in depth discussion but that's that's kind of the biggest question marks around the jets you're going to have a new scheme you're going to have a new head coach you're going to have some you got a tough division i mean you're definitely at the bottom i mean you look at the vegas odds in this division they're like plus eighteen hundred to win the division it is a massive difference between new england and miami and obviously buffalo the favorite speaking of new england they are sitting there projected with a vegas win total of eight and a half is.

[Jason Moore]

That i love it i love it.

[Andy Holloway]

That can't be true no that that absolutely should be true who's got an.

[Jason Moore]

Eight and a half new england no.

[Mike Wright]

That can't be right no that cannot.

[Andy Holloway]

Be right eight and a half yeah i mean what i'll take the over.

[Mike Wright]

What i'm reading it and i'm like no okay so that puts him you're.

[Jason Moore]

Taking the over so you're taking with.

[Andy Holloway]

Mine on the patriots the patriots are.

[Jason Moore]

A nine plus win they won four.

[Mike Wright]

Last year yes their win total was four and a half last year they won in week one and then lost six straight drake may took over in week six and this year is eight and a half they do have the second easiest schedule they're going to need it they last year were thirty first in yards per game thirtieth in points per game but also had a defense that was twenty second in points per game allowed and twenty second in yards allowed so it was bad on both sides of the ball you get mike vrabel coming in the gerard mayo experiment lasted a year and josh mcdaniels makes his normal cycle around the sun and he's back with new england for the third time i believe you add stefan diggs who we don't know for sure will be back for week one but should be back at some point soon mac hollins is also a new wide receiver addition and they draft trayvon henderson and kyle williams so they have young talent and they have like we all.

[Andy Holloway]

Like jake may i think drake may was unheralded last year he played no.

[Mike Wright]

One did herald him he played very.

[Andy Holloway]

Well given his circumstances his offensive line or if you know if you can call it that the coaching it was bad and i thought he looked good like he showed enough in his rookie season to make me believe he can take that year to leap forward to becoming a true franchise quarterback you pair him with a good head coach in mike vrabel who knows how to pull out games and win the close ones this is why i'm a believer in the patriots being they're probably the team that i look at as you know the question is always who goes from worst to first right i don't have them going worst first because of buffalo but they're one of the teams that you can just see the easy progression there's always surprising teams where that's just like they're supposed to be trash supposed to be one of the worst in the league and then all of a sudden they come out and they're like oh that's that's a pretty good team this year i feel like that's that that could be the patriots here i.

[Mike Wright]

Mean if you look at the division if the if the dolphins collapse which is very very possible with mike mcdaniels maybe his final year if they collapse there the patriots are second by default yeah so you know it was really good for vrabel and tennessee for four years it was really kind of rough the last couple of seasons in tennessee but he may have the doug peterson effect arriving on and enlivening this team i like what they did in the draft where they invested picks not just in the skill positions but on the offensive line so yeah i mean eight and a half it says a lot about where that division is and what the expectations are that is four more wins than they were projected to get last year and they it's not like they went out and impressed last year.

[Andy Holloway]

No no they didn't the offensive line i think should be i mean they spent the number four pick in the draft on an offensive lineman to help protect dre may and mike one of.

[Jason Moore]

Your favorite players oh yeah look i love travion henderson yeah that's going to.

[Andy Holloway]

Help out of the back just to.

[Mike Wright]

Amplify your point since twenty fifteen at least one team every year that was drafting in the top ten won their division or had twelve plus or twelve plus games that's next year so it does happen it never sounds logical or rational right now but it happens every year the backfield chavion henderson and ramondre stevenson i think this one's going to be tough i don't i know you love travion henderson i think he's a very talented player i do not think the path for him to be a week in week out fantasy relevant player.

[Jason Moore]

Is super easy it is not i get that ramon dre is entrenched he's the starter you know like you can make arguments for him of hey they just gave him this extension last year but they've made some changes the really the crux of the argument for trayvon henderson is i think he is just he is that much better than ramon dre stevenson that maybe we have ramondre start off the first couple weeks as the guy but i think sooner than later it switches over because henderson is just the talent will put him on the field where where ramondre is just slow and lumbering and fumbles it's hard.

[Mike Wright]

It'S hard see that description of ramondre i think is so it's just a product of a really really bad season and obviously they needed to amplify more in that room this was the dead last the worst offensive line in football last year thirty second the team won four games not conducive for a good running game and like last off season ramon drake got a giant contract and had a lot of excitement around him so in that regard it's just i don't want to swing the pendulum so far to where you know if they fix these other things that make them an eight and a half win team and make drake may relevant and you like trayvon henderson ramondra is going to have more success in that offense he.

[Jason Moore]

Could it just to me this this is this is the rashad white bucky irving of and it's not apples to apple because bucky was a later round pick but it was i think the starter is simple he just he was the starter because he was the guy who happened to be there and is the inefficiencies will continue to show as henderson puts up big dynamic plays and then they make the switch the one.

[Andy Holloway]

Thing in ramon dre's favor is the fact that henderson is a smaller more undersized back and you would expect there to be a timeshare when you are paying a lot of money for another bigger body back like ramon dre stevenson you know the round mound of touchdown.

[Mike Wright]

You'Re not really looking at henderson being a three down every you know takeover.

[Andy Holloway]

Type correct i don't i don't see that happening i mean it didn't even happened for jameer gibbs outside of when david montgomery was injured so yeah this is i think it'll be a split backfield and it'll probably be a split backfield for two years because they can't really get out of his contract this year or next year for ramondre i would agree with you on the next.

[Jason Moore]

Year'S three point two five i'm seeing his dead cap so right now they're.

[Mike Wright]

Two rounds apart though henderson is going two rounds ahead of ramondre which to me makes ramondre a pinch your nose and draft in the ninth round yeah.

[Jason Moore]

I would not i probably won't be.

[Mike Wright]

Either that would put him at so in the career worst season for him he was still the rb twenty seven is still is at ten point six like he's been at ten point six fantasy points per game two straight years so that part didn't change i'm not saying he's explosive or exciting or fun probably just annoyingly productive for a for a late round running back is my point henderson is the future of this team he's much more exciting but i don't see any world that they just hand him the whole backfield if if.

[Jason Moore]

Jason'S like if you're you're in on jason's projection of like this team completely turns things around then yes i could see that it could it could fall out that ramondre is just annoyingly productive you can't be like the team can't be bad and ramon dre be productive i don't think even annoyingly productive when you have henderson waiting to try and.

[Mike Wright]

Take over all right any final thoughts.

[Andy Holloway]

There jason yeah i just wanted to see the schedule my final thoughts are they play the raiders the dolphins the.

[Jason Moore]

Panthers is this the opening schedule they.

[Mike Wright]

Play pittsburgh in week three yes yes.

[Andy Holloway]

Yes i'm just saying they they play the panthers this year they play the new orleans saints this year the tennessee titans the cleveland browns like they're second easiest schedule the i mean obviously this is this is great for hoping i mean patriots fans out there if you're hoping for something good you got it on the schedule do you have that.

[Mike Wright]

Didn'T tell me which guy that you.

[Andy Holloway]

Which player i would rather have i would much rather have henderson over ramon dre from a fantasy standpoint the seventh round is already late enough where i'm taking the shot of explosiveness i think things could get better for the patriots meaning more scoring opportunities for ramondre i do think he's going to be involved but i also think his total workload will go down with a second round trayvon was second round yeah yeah second.

[Mike Wright]

Round how many touches do you have trayvon projected for in the in the.

[Jason Moore]

Udk let me go pull that up.

[Mike Wright]

While you do that i mentioned kyle williams drafted wide receiver new england has a lot of potential ran a four four five eleven one hundred ninety we like him stefan diggs still going to be a really important player i think.

[Jason Moore]

For drake mays progression it's just when.

[Mike Wright]

I think i think it seems like right away.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah we don't know because there's reports of he might have to start on the puppy i mean like the timeline of when he tore his acl i don't remember what week it was but it like guys returning from acl it seems like he should miss time at the beginning of the year and we see videos of guys out there running but running on grass while no one is hitting you is so much different than a full speed nfl game i have henderson because i have henderson really taking the backfield i got him at a one hundred ninety four carries and fifty five targets yeah i.

[Andy Holloway]

Do think stefan diggs plays week one personally and i've got travion henderson at one hundred and sixty five rushing attempts and forty seven targets all right well.

[Mike Wright]

I guess antonio gibson still plays for this team huh still on their off.

[Andy Holloway]

I think so yeah he does wink.

[Mike Wright]

That was the wink sound that was.

[Andy Holloway]

The yeah i can't really just do that for an audio usually you go.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah that was really deep that was a deep wink like like a cartoon.

[Andy Holloway]

Sound effect could i say it with a higher voice like try it like yeah antonio gibson plays for the patriots.

[Jason Moore]

Wink that's my yeah that's so much.

[Andy Holloway]

Better thank you guys thank you wink.

[Jason Moore]

Dancing thank you good work producers so.

[Mike Wright]

Then where you like new england to break out jason yes you like drake.

[Andy Holloway]

May drake may to me is another.

[Mike Wright]

He'S my quarterback twelve okay then somebody has to matter in the passing game.

[Andy Holloway]

I mean that would be josh allen says that's incorrect yeah stefan diggs and k sean booty booty are the two that i have projected as the highest.

[Jason Moore]

In target what's wild is i don't think we even know who's going to be on this team as a pass.

[Andy Holloway]

Catcher i've seen so many i've seen.

[Jason Moore]

Reports that booty's not even on the.

[Andy Holloway]

Team i can't yeah i mean demario.

[Mike Wright]

Douglas is on the lock yeah kyle williams is on the team stefan diggs.

[Jason Moore]

Is on the team yeah those are.

[Mike Wright]

And matt collins is on the team.

[Jason Moore]

What i'm saying the three locks that i see consistently being reported is diggs kyle williams douglas yes and then the rest of the spots are up for.

[Andy Holloway]

Grabs if you win drake may took over and became the starter if you look at how booty was used he was really really involved down the stretch so i would be surprised if he doesn't make the team last year's second round he's gone that's insane i mean i got to imagine he's gone mac.

[Mike Wright]

Hollins was a two year eight point four million dollars contract i was just looking that up he came over from.

[Jason Moore]

Buffalo he should be on that mac is a good wide receiver he was.

[Andy Holloway]

Good for buffalo on special teams yeah.

[Jason Moore]

So he should be on the level.

[Andy Holloway]

Of t on your team with that super t that's capital t for sure you've got high t no shoes kendrick bourne john baker there are so many.

[Mike Wright]

Baker bourne booty if it's a if it's a b name you could get cut yeah so to you though i think demario douglas is just one of those players that's like he's the khalil shakir of the offense exactly he's not going to give you a huge ceiling but if you need a spot start in a certain week he's always going to be on the field he's going.

[Andy Holloway]

To he's good he's a good he's a good slot watcher he's a ppr type of guy that's going to you pray get to ten yards of reception but he'll be very targeted any other.

[Mike Wright]

Shots in the passing game that you guys care about hunter henry i mean.

[Jason Moore]

Hunter henry's a fun streaming tight end from time to time but still going.

[Mike Wright]

To need the offensive line to be better than thirty second in the league for sure which i mean that's going to have to get proven out on the field if they're a bad offensive line this team is going to hit their under on that win total they.

[Andy Holloway]

Will be a bad offensive line they don't have enough personnel i mean obviously will anderson being you know drafted at four overall that will help but campbell or i'm sorry will campbell i was.

[Jason Moore]

Like how is he going to spin.

[Andy Holloway]

Will anderson into this conversation will anderson alabama superstar that the cardinals should have drafted but no will campbell the tackle he'll help but it reminds me a lot of like the texans last year where you had laramie tunsil awesome but then the rest of your line was such trash that you still had a bad line who ends the division buffalo.

[Mike Wright]

All right we all got buffalo at the top give me the rest you.

[Andy Holloway]

Know i'm taking the patriots second okay.

[Jason Moore]

Dolphins jets i'm going to go which.

[Mike Wright]

By the way in case you're curious chalk oh is that chalk yes that's what that's chalk yeah you're a chalk.

[Andy Holloway]

Guy okay well it's different last year why don't you just pick whatever they did last year what's your order andy.

[Mike Wright]

It'S tough to decide between miami and new england i think i'll go buffalo.

[Jason Moore]

Miami new england new york chalk last year i'm going to go buffalo new york jets miami dolphins new england patriots.

[Mike Wright]

I can't quit justin wait hit that.

[Jason Moore]

Hit that sound effect what i can't quit is there it is what i can't quit is a already great defense and then you bring in a defensive guy i'm not saying it's going to be pretty to watch but i think.

[Andy Holloway]

That they you're saying they bring in a defensive guy at head coach yeah replacing a defensive guy at head coach.

[Jason Moore]

A guy who actually i believe in.

[Mike Wright]

Okay it's funny that what three out of four in the division are defensive head coaches mcdermott's a defensive head coach yeah aaron glenn now a defensive head coach mike vrabel defensive head coach yeah right yeah so mike mcdaniels is really the chief stands alone yeah and if.

[Jason Moore]

You put mike you got to do something in miami you can't make us offensive people look bad again rex ryan's.

[Mike Wright]

Looking for a job all right well.

[Jason Moore]

You could play that sound for rex.

[Andy Holloway]

Ryan with him oh yeah that is the that is him smiling for sure.

[Mike Wright]

It'S the light caressing off of the chompers is that what you're saying yep all right i think that's going to wrap it up for today's divisional breakdown but don't worry three shows a week means we've got a show in just two days and then we'll have another mock draft episode i believe coming up next tuesday so we'll do another divisional breakdown we'll do a mock draft and we'll get back into the divisional shows as well check out the draft kit it's the number one way to win at your draft make sure you're prepared make sure you have a game plan make sure you know what to do all of our sleepers breakouts busts and values available in there along with innumerable other resources to help you so many help you handle your business on draft day so that is going to do it for today shout out to doosers alley everybody over there taking care of business thank you gentlemen we'll be back with another episode on saturday take care.

[Jason Moore]

Everybody goodbye.

[Andy Holloway]

Thank you for listening to another episode of the fantasy footballers podcast join our fantasy football community on jointhefoot dot com and follow us on twitter the ffballers.

[Mike Wright]

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