AFC North Breakdown + Double Jump, Buy or Sell - Fantasy Football Podcast

Summary

Fantasy Footballers Podcast Summary Episode: AFC North Breakdown + Double Jump, Buy or Sell Release Date: July 9, 2020

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Introduction

In this episode of the Fantasy Footballers Podcast, hosts Andy Holloway, Jason Moore, and Mike "The Fantasy Hitman" Wright dive deep into the intricacies of the AFC North division. Alongside the divisional analysis, the trio engages in their popular Double Jump, Buy or Sell segment, addressing key player movements and fantasy implications. The episode is packed with expert insights, strategic advice, and candid opinions designed to help fantasy football enthusiasts dominate their leagues.

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Double Jump, Buy or Sell: Calvin Ridley

Timestamp: [02:59] – [08:21]

The episode kicks off with the Buy or Sell segment, focusing on Calvin Ridley, a highly anticipated wide receiver in the fantasy offseason. Jason Moore presents Ridley as a prime candidate for a significant performance jump, projecting him to achieve over 1,100 receiving yards this season—a substantial increase from his 2018 and 2019 performances.

• Jason Moore states, “Calvin Ridley will make the jump to 1,100 receiving yards. Now that would be a jump by definition. In 2018 he had 821 yards and in 2019 he only played 13 games, so he had 866 yards last year and then 2020.” [03:06]

Mike Wright shares his optimism, betting on Ridley exceeding the 1,100-yard mark by even projecting 1,201 yards:

• Mike Wright: “I have him down for 1,091 yards.” [04:05]

• Later, he elevates his projection: “That’s the highest number of wideouts in the NFL since 2001 to reach the 1,100 yard mark. So I do like Calvin Ridley as a breakout player. I don’t mind your 1,200 yard prediction, Mike, but 1,101 the two of us at least are buying the 1,100 yard mark for Ridley.” [05:26]

Jason Moore concurs, highlighting Ridley’s potential and the Falcons’ offensive stability:

• Jason Moore: “I agree Hayden Hurst is going to be there, but can Hayden Hurst really fill that level of void that Austin Hooper has while Calvin Ridley, first-round wide receiver who's like he's coming into a breakout age, breakout potential season here. I'm buying it, man. I'm buying that Calvin Ridley's going to hit the 1,100 yard mark.” [06:33]

The discussion emphasizes Ridley’s talent, the Falcons' offensive strategies, and the importance of a healthy season for Ridley to realize his potential.

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News and Notes: Raheem Mostert and Rex Burkhead

Timestamp: [08:42] – [18:02]

Raheem Mostert Requests a Trade

The hosts shift focus to significant news involving Raheem Mostert, the dynamic running back for the San Francisco 49ers. Jason Moore reveals a breaking update:

• Jason Moore: “After months of unproductive talks with the 49ers about fairly adjusting Raheem Mostert's contract, we have requested a trade.” [09:24]

This revelation sparks a discussion about Mostert’s role and potential future:

• Mike Wright: “So my goodness, smashing the over.” [05:12]

• Unknown Speaker (likely Mike or Jason): “He’s 28 years old. If he doesn’t get paid now off the back of that great season, he’s not going to get another good contract.” [10:33]

The hosts debate the likelihood of Mostert securing a trade and the implications for his fantasy value. Concerns are raised about his replacement options and the 49ers' ability to meet his contract demands, with skepticism expressed about other teams' willingness to take on his contract.

• Jason Moore: “This is not good news, my friend. It doesn’t make me feel good at all.” [12:27]

• Unknown Speaker: “What team out there is thinking, man, I really want to give up something for Mostert so I could sign him to another deal?” [14:33]

The consensus suggests that Mostert is likely to remain with the 49ers, given the challenges of finding a trade partner willing to shoulder his contract.

Rex Burkhead Restructures Contract

Shifting to the Cleveland Browns, the podcast covers Rex Burkhead's contract restructuring:

• Jason Moore: “Rex Burkhead restructured his contract. He would have been cut if he didn’t do this.” [08:42]

This move signals Burkhead’s intention to stay with the Browns and offers stability to the team's backfield. Mike Wright reflects on Burkhead's impact:

• Mike Wright: “If Rex Burkhead is there, he will get touches. That’s my only point.” [16:15]

The discussion highlights how Burkhead’s presence affects other running backs on the roster, such as Sony Michel and Damien Harris, and the overall stability he brings to the Browns’ offense.

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AFC North Divisional Breakdown

Timestamp: [19:33] – [57:10]

Baltimore Ravens

Timestamp: [19:33] – [24:39]

The Ravens are highlighted as the dominant force in the AFC North, with a strong track record from the previous season:

• Jason Moore: “Last year it was a beautiful sight to behold if you’re a Ravens fan. Number one in rushing yards per game, number two in rushing touchdowns, number one in passing touchdowns.” [20:03]

Roster Stability and Key Additions:

• Mike Wright: “They added J.K. Dobbins, getting another year for Hollywood. I’m super excited.” [21:14]

• Jason Moore: “Proche was considered the steal of the draft for them.” [21:47]

The hosts discuss the Ravens’ offensive improvements, including the addition of rookie J.K. Dobbins and Hollywood Brown, and the potential impact of developing young wide receivers like Mark Andrews. Jason Moore expresses uncertainty about the Ravens having a third fantasy-relevant wide receiver beyond Hollywood Brown and Mark Andrews.

• Mike Wright: “They will regress with their offense. But the formula of defense and running the ball is still going to work.” [23:22]

The conversation underscores the Ravens' balanced offense and robust defense, projecting continued dominance in the division.

Pittsburgh Steelers

Timestamp: [24:39] – [38:35]

The Steelers present a complex scenario, grappling with injury concerns and uncertain offensive performance:

• Jason Moore: “James Conner is a tough case for fantasy owners this year because he is injured frequently.” [28:30]

Running Back Quandary:

The discussion centers around James Conner and David Johnson, evaluating their reliability and fantasy potential:

• Mike Wright: “I believe if he is healthy and plays, you know, 14, 15 games, that he will end up as a top 12 running back.” [29:24]

• Jason Moore: “I would take David Johnson because both of those guys are going to slide in as my running back, too.” [31:11]

Wide Receiver Dilemma:

The debate shifts to wide receivers, particularly JuJu Smith-Schuster versus Deontay Johnson:

• Jason Moore: “I believe the odds of Deontay Johnson being the most fantasy-relevant wide receiver are high enough to where I’d rather have him in the eighth than JuJu in the fourth.” [35:32]

• Mike Wright: “I would take JuJu as well.” [36:29]

The hosts analyze the Steelers' wide receiver corps, questioning the potential breakout of Deontay Johnson while expressing reservations about JuJu Smith-Schuster's consistency.

Fantasy Strategy:

Jason Moore and Mike Wright deliberate on drafting strategies, weighing the risks of injury-prone running backs against the potential high floor of reliable players like David Johnson. They also consider the implications of coaching decisions and the offensive scheme on player performance.

• Jason Moore: “You don’t want to have these conversations because you look at the wide receivers that are going around these guys and have better options.” [33:02]

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Cleveland Browns

Timestamp: [38:35] – [48:27]

The Browns emerge as a team poised for significant improvement, buoyed by a new coaching staff and strategic acquisitions:

• Jason Moore: “This is a make it or break it year for Baker Mayfield.” [41:07]

Coaching Changes and Offensive Upgrades:

With Kevin Stefanski as the new head coach and Alex Van Pelt as the offensive coordinator, the Browns undergo a transformative shift:

• Jason Moore: “They have a great defense. So I love the running game. I do think that the passing game will be so much more efficient this season with a healthy Odell Beckham.” [42:06]

Key Additions:

• Jack Conklin: Added to strengthen the offensive line.
• Austin Hooper: Brought in to stabilize the tight end position.
• Rex Burkhead: Contract restructured to stay with the team.

Baker Mayfield’s Potential:

The hosts discuss Baker Mayfield’s potential resurgence under the new coaching regime:

• Mike Wright: “But it’s hard to see Beckham is a tough case as well. This whole team is very interesting.” [43:34]

• Jason Moore: “I look at him a chance to succeed.” [45:21]

Fantasy Implications:

The Browns’ revamped offense is expected to create favorable conditions for fantasy production, particularly with the integration of Odell Beckham Jr. and the potential efficiency in the passing game.

• Jason Moore: “I was very in on Odell this year.” [48:21]

The consensus is that the Browns are set to be a formidable team in the AFC North, with multiple assets providing solid fantasy value.

Cincinnati Bengals

Timestamp: [48:27] – [57:10]

The Bengals are characterized as a team in the midst of rebuilding, armed with promising young talent and strategic draft picks:

• Jason Moore: “He is going to be a steal of drafts.” [52:26]

Key Players and Additions:

• Joe Burrow: The number one overall pick expected to be the team's future quarterback.
• Joe Mixon: A stellar running back positioned as the eighth pick in fantasy drafts.
• T. Higgins: Added in the second round as a key wide receiver to support Burrow.

Offensive Outlook:

The discussion focuses on the Bengals' offensive strategies, particularly the balance between the running and passing game:

• Jason Moore: “If Joe Burrow comes in and dominates the offensive line, steps it up and A.J. Green is fully healthy, then he’s going to be a steal of drafts.” [53:04]

Wide Receiver Concerns:

Concerns are raised about the depth and potential of the Bengals' wide receiver corps, particularly the roles of Tyler Boyd and A.J. Green:

• Unknown Speaker: “I would take JuJu over Tyler Boyd. I would take Michael Gallup over Tyler Boyd.” [55:01]

Fantasy Prospects:

The hosts evaluate the Bengals' potential for fantasy success, contingent on the health and performance of Joe Burrow and the emergence of rookie T. Higgins.

• Jason Moore: “If Joe Burrow dominates, then T. Higgins could be a major fantasy asset.” [53:17]

The conclusion for the Bengals suggests that while they have promising talent, their fantasy value will heavily depend on the integration of their young quarterback and the development of their offensive system.

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Conclusion

Throughout the episode, the Fantasy Footballers provide a comprehensive analysis of the AFC North, delivering valuable insights into player performances, team strategies, and fantasy implications. From the Ravens’ continued dominance to the Steelers' injury concerns, the Browns' promising rebuild, and the Bengals' potential resurgence, listeners are equipped with the knowledge to make informed fantasy decisions.

Key takeaways include:

• Calvin Ridley is a strong buy, with projections indicating a breakout season.
• Raheem Mostert's trade request remains uncertain, likely keeping his fantasy value intact.
• The Baltimore Ravens continue to be a powerhouse with solid roster additions.
• The Pittsburgh Steelers present a high-risk, high-reward scenario with running backs like James Conner and wide receivers weighing JuJu Smith-Schuster against Deontay Johnson.
• The Cleveland Browns show significant promise under new coaching, enhancing prospects for players like Baker Mayfield and Austin Hooper.
• The Cincinnati Bengals are in a rebuilding phase, with potential fantasy stars in Joe Burrow and Joe Mixon, contingent on system implementation and player development.

The hosts conclude with a reminder to listeners to join their fantasy football community and stay engaged for future insights.

Notable Quotes:

• Jason Moore: “Calvin Ridley will make the jump to 1,100 receiving yards.” [03:06]

• Mike Wright: “I have him down for 1,091 yards.” [04:05]

• Jason Moore: “This is not good news, my friend. It doesn’t make me feel good at all.” [12:27]

• Jason Moore: “What team out there is thinking, man, I really want to give up something for Mostert so I could sign him to another deal?” [14:33]

• Jason Moore: “I do think that the Browns are set to be a formidable team in the AFC North, with multiple assets providing solid fantasy value.” [45:21]

• Unknown Speaker: “Do you believe he has that breakout year? He was the best wide receiver last year with the crappy quarterback play.” [34:46]

• Jason Moore: “I was very in on Odell this year.” [48:21]

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Final Thoughts

This episode serves as a crucial guide for fantasy managers navigating the complexities of player valuations and team dynamics within the AFC North. With expert analysis and strategic recommendations, the Fantasy Footballers equip their audience with the tools necessary to optimize their fantasy rosters and outmaneuver competitors. Whether it's identifying breakout candidates, assessing trade possibilities, or understanding team-wide shifts, this episode is an invaluable resource for anyone serious about winning their fantasy leagues.

Transcript

[Andy Holloway]

Hey, it's me, the guy who introduces the show. Listen to my amazing voice. Now check out the amazing Ultimate Draft kit. The guys spend all off season creating this bad boy and they keep it updated all off season. It's got their full projections, breakouts, sleepers, bus, over a hundred player profile videos. It's even got a mobile app. Has my incredible voice lulled you into a deep sense of trust and commitment? Perfect. Now check out ultimate draftkit.com and get ready to win your league. Now back to the show. Welcome to the Fantasy Footballers Podcast with your hosts, Andy Holloway, Jason Moore and Mike Wright.

[Jason Moore]

Welcome in what's going on foot clan, Thursday, July 9th. Back with you, Andy, Mike and Jason, the fantasy footballers. We're beginning our divisional jaunt through the National Football League. Today on the show we have the AFC north divisional breakdown. Have some news to talk about, including a piece of news that broke mere seconds before we hit record today.

[Mike Wright]

And it's a doozy.

[Jason Moore]

I'm having a bit of a hard time dealing with it.

[Mike Wright]

It's better for some than others.

[Jason Moore]

And so we will talk about it shortly. Welcome. In a reminder, we are three times a week now. Tuesday, Thursday, Saturday. So it is July and we're three times a week until August and then we'll be five times a week forever or so.

[Mike Wright]

I'm pretty sure that August is tomorrow.

[Unknown Speaker]

Like it is very soon.

[Jason Moore]

I need to be reminded when August is. I will tell you that.

[Mike Wright]

That's what I'm saying. Like it's just space has folded upon itself and tomorrow I'll go, oh, wait, it's August. Oh, okay, sure.

[Jason Moore]

Yes, yes. So we have lots to talk about. You heard it at the top. The Ultimate Draft kit is available right now. Dollar from every UDK goes to St. Jude Children's Research Hospital once again this year, second year. We've worked with them. Very excited about that. You can find us on twitter@the ffballers, on Instagram, instagram.com fantasy footballers. And we should get right into it. We're going to do so Buy, Sell.

[Andy Holloway]

Buy or sell. Presented by Pristine Auction.

[Jason Moore]

All right, buy or sell. Calvin Ridley, one of the more hyped offseason names. Calvin Ridley will make the jump to 1100 receiving yards. Now that would be a jump by definition. In 2018 he had 821 yards and.

[Mike Wright]

16 crisscross jump, jump.

[Jason Moore]

Big time double jump. Thank you. Yes. In 2019. Last year he only played 13 games. So he had 866 yards last year and then 2020. What's coming for Calvin Ridley. There were 18 wide receivers at that mark last year. It's the highest number of wideouts in the national football league since 2001 to reach the 1100 yard mark. So what do you think about Calvin Ridley staying healthy, making the jump? Jump? What do you got him down for? Oh, my goodness. I have him down for 10, 91 yards.

[Unknown Speaker]

Oh, now you're.

[Mike Wright]

It's up to you now. That happened to me last week.

[Jason Moore]

I'm apparently selling, but it's.

[Mike Wright]

Jason was very excited to reveal something to us. I will see the floor when I.

[Unknown Speaker]

Saw this and you know, just seeing this. It's been a while since I started out Calvin Ridley. I know I was very high on him. After being high, I went back in and investigated his game by game. You know, when did it happen? Last year. Because his pace was outstanding. Right. If you look at from week six on through the rest of the season, last year he was on a pace for 11:42 yards. But a lot of those games just happened to coincide with when Austin Hooper was not on the field. Now, Austin Hooper will never be on the field this season, but Hayden Hurst will. He's not going to. You know what I mean? It's not like there isn't a tight end where when Austin Hooper went down to injury, there wasn't another person there to just fill that void. So I did dial him back a little. But when I went to check to see on this buy or sell, am I buying 1100 yards? I had to stop and think, did Brooks, did Brooks go in and look at my stats? Because I have him for 1101 yard.

[Mike Wright]

So my goodness, smashing the over.

[Jason Moore]

That's a huge buy right there.

[Unknown Speaker]

Clearly I am buying the heck out of 1100 yards at 1101. Of course, that's not much different than Andy's. What are you, nine yards away?

[Jason Moore]

91. Yeah, I. So we all have right around line.

[Mike Wright]

That's right. So this wouldn't be the first time this has happened. So back in 2012 when it was Roddy White and a young bustling Julio Jones breaking into the league, they were both over that mark. Roddy was over 1300 and Julio was just 2 yards shy of 1200 yards. I was a little bit taken back by my very bullish Calvin Ridley stat line because I got. I have Calvin Ridley sitting right now just over that 1200 yard mark. I have the Atlanta Falcons matching that pace where wide receiver 1 and wide receiver wide receiver 2 dominated. I agree Hayden Hurst is going to be there, but can Hayden Hurst really fill that level of void that Austin Hooper has while Calvin Ridley, first round wide receiver who's like he's coming into a breakout age, breakout potential season here. I'm buying it, man. I'm buying that Calvin Ridley's going to hit the 1100 yard mark.

[Jason Moore]

There's a couple of, I think things to remember. We do talk a lot about looking at, you know, targets that go away. Austin Hooper was heavily targeted. We've talked about the fact that sometimes that ends up transitioning not to a wide receiver too, but to a running back. That happens quite a bit. I also just don't want people to forget about Russell Gage. I mean he was targeted 74 times last year. He's a player that fits that middle of the field, Matthew Ryan area as well as Hayden Hurst. So none of that's to say Calvin Ridley can't take that next step. Jason talked about the pace, but there, it's not going to be a binary thing. There will be multiple players filling that role.

[Unknown Speaker]

Yeah, everybody will be filling it. But if you, if you really think about the fact that they started last year with Austin Hooper and Mohamed Sanu and now they're coming into this year, Hayden Hurst and Russell Gage, this is the opportunity for truly, truly step up to be the wide receiver they drafted him to be. Right? They drafted him to eventually even be the replacement for their wide receiver. One, he had that talent coming out. He's a first round draft pick for a reason. Excellent route runner, dominant against zone, has had a knack for the end zone. So I do like Calvin Ridley as a breakout player. I don't mind your 1200 yard prediction, Mike, but at 1101 the two of us at least are are buying the 1100 yard mark for Ridley. 1200.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, yeah, 1200 is very bullish. It may be a little bit too much, but what we know about Matt Ryan, the touchdowns fluctuate but the dude is absolute yardage monster. The last eight years he is averaging over 4600 passing yards a season. Like Matt Ryan is an absolute yardage machine.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, and I am a hard sell at 1091 yards. So that was by herself from Pristine Auction. I'm so distracted by this news guys. Buy or sell from Pristine Auction. Check them out@pristine auction.com use the code. Ballers get a $10 credit towards some sweet sports memorabilia. Let's talk news.

[Andy Holloway]

News and notes from around the league.

[Jason Moore]

Well, a month or so ago we talked a lot about Raheem Mostert and I believe he was one of my own personal. Was it Value breakout. Breakout picks, I think on the breakout show and we talked about the fact the 49ers, man, they're working on another contract for Raheem Moster. Raheem Moster's 28 years old. The guy's got to get paid. Righty. He's got to get paid. And.

[Mike Wright]

Well, and the team agreed that. The team has been in discussions with Raheem Mostert now for a while about fixing his contract situation.

[Jason Moore]

And then we just got a tweet right before the show began from his agent saying after months of unproductive talks with the 49ers about fairly adjusting Raheem Mostert's contract, we have requested a trade. He said, disappointing that it would come to this for a guy who led all NFL running backs in yards per carry and helped lead them to a Super Bowl.

[Mike Wright]

No, wait, so did the agent drop the yards per carry stat?

[Jason Moore]

Yes, he did.

[Unknown Speaker]

Yeah, he really did. I mean, that's an agent's job, right? Hype him up. That's his best stat is he led the NFL in yards per carry.

[Jason Moore]

I love.

[Mike Wright]

How do you not drop the. He has the second most rushing yards in history in a playoff game. Like I'd go with that one.

[Jason Moore]

Some people are yard per carry guys, Mike. Some people, yeah. His agent's big into it and probably you're getting an insight probably into the unproductive talks that have previously happened because he was slamming that yards per carry number which, I mean, obviously I made the argument we've all, we've all seen Raheem Mostert play, we saw him last year and how good and dynamic he was in the big plays. And that being said, you know, you kind of, I don't blame Raheem Mostert for wanting to get paid. This will be the only time he gets a chance to do it.

[Unknown Speaker]

He's 28 years old. If he doesn't get paid now off the back of that great season, he's not going to get another good contract.

[Jason Moore]

Now that being said, he is under contract for 2020 and 2021.

[Unknown Speaker]

Yeah.

[Jason Moore]

Requesting a trade because he signed a three year deal.

[Unknown Speaker]

Requesting a trade means nothing. It does not mean the team is going to trade you that they have any obligation to trade them. And you know, the Shanahans don't usually pay up for their backs. They like finding late round backs are turning them into stars. So you know, to me, I, I don't, I don't look at this news as some horrific. Moster is gone. Tevin Coleman is shooting up the board because he's the clear cut starter. I think this is, there's, there's a.

[Mike Wright]

Ghost in the room. Jason.

[Unknown Speaker]

Jerick McKinnon.

[Mike Wright]

Jerick McKinnon.

[Jason Moore]

My name is Jeff.

[Unknown Speaker]

I mean, it changes. That's right. It changes if Mostert is traded. But as of right now, and granted we just heard this news, but it kind of comes off to me, especially the way that this is a public agent tweet, comes off to me as posturing and I don't know that the Niners would have any reason to give into it.

[Jason Moore]

Well, the one thing that you can say about the 49ers is that they can posture themselves and say that they have all the depth in the world, but try to say it with a straight face that Tevin Coleman and Jerick McKinnon are going to get you back to a Super bowl by themselves. Jerick McKinnon hasn't played football in two years. We still don't know if he will play football this year. Tevin Coleman is perennially injured and up and down. I would hope that they could come to an agreement. But when I saw this news now, I made a transaction to acquire Raheem Mostert in our Dynasty league. This is not good news, my friend. It doesn't make me feel good at all. It's a real.

[Unknown Speaker]

The people that are in the Scottie Fishbowl draft that already drafted Tevin Coleman at a value, they're thrilled. The people who grabbed Moster are worried.

[Mike Wright]

This is what I wanted to ask. Like actionable fantasy stuff. You're in a slow draft. It's going Coleman right now. Well, let's say because Coleman was a later ADP guy at the running back position, as has been highlighted from our the mock drafts we've been doing. But let's say you are in round six right now and you're on the clock. You're like you've been looking at a running back. Are you going that early on Tevin Coleman from this piece of news or Jay, are you still, are you confident in the. This is just huffing and puffing from a agent.

[Unknown Speaker]

I am fairly confident. I mean it would, it would partially depend on who's on the board. I'm looking at our, the draft we're in right now and ironically Raheem Mostert was in the sixth. And if you knew Mostert wasn't there, then I think Coleman would, would deserve to be there. But since we don't know for sure, I'm not going to take him over a David Montgomery who we know is Going to get a workload and hopefully can't be as bad on a per touch basis as he was last year. So, you know, it's going to. It's going to depend who's on the board. But that's about where Mostert's going right now. I wouldn't draft him where Mostert is going just based on the potential that it could happen.

[Jason Moore]

Also, Matt Burrida, you think they regret that transaction?

[Mike Wright]

They do now.

[Jason Moore]

They might. And for those asking what happens if Raheem Mostert is traded? Not good things by my estimation. Because for Raheem Mostert to be moved, you know, I suppose that means that another team is willing to make, you know, a contract adjustment maybe to trade him, but he's probably going to drop a Most turd on some other backfield and ruin something for you.

[Unknown Speaker]

Because I think you said the biggest, most important part, right, in order for this, the mice turd, the most important part, which is in order for this trade to happen, according to the agent, is they need to go to a team who's willing to sign him to a new contract.

[Jason Moore]

Yes. Who.

[Unknown Speaker]

What team out there, what team in the world is thinking, man, I really want to give up something for Mostert so I could sign him to another deal because he's Raheem Mostert and I have to have nobody. That's why he's not going to get traded. He's going to stay on the Niners.

[Jason Moore]

And be upset he ends up in Miami with Breeda. Get ready.

[Unknown Speaker]

Well, no, here's the trade I want to see have happened. I want to see just a one for one player, trade Mostert for Breeder and just be like, would you rather have Moster? He doesn't want to be here.

[Jason Moore]

That'd be fun.

[Unknown Speaker]

Yeah, I'd rather have Mostert.

[Jason Moore]

Unbelievable. All right, couple of other quick updates. There have been some movements with the NFLPA and the NFL on finalizing structure around team travel, things like that. So some positive news about them working together to get through some of this. Camps are supposed to begin on July 28, which I think is somewhere in the near future.

[Unknown Speaker]

It is based tomorrow.

[Jason Moore]

The calendar. Everything's tomorrow. Everything's yesterday.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah. Yes. See, now we're on the same page.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. Everything is everything, man. And then ESPN's Field Yates reported that this is this kind of big news. Rex Burkhead restructured his contract. He would have been cut if he didn't do this. It's probably a smart move for Burkhead and for the team he was going to be a cap casualty. After the Cam Newton signing, we thought Burkhead might leave, which might bring a little bit more clarity to the backfield with Sony, Michelle and Damien Harris and company. But he's going to be around, which means he's going to be around.

[Mike Wright]

Like did you guys remember that in the first three weeks of the season because Burke had got hurt, as he often does, but the first three weeks he had a finish of RB20 and RB10. Inside of those first three weeks.

[Unknown Speaker]

Are you back on the sexy rexy train, Mike?

[Mike Wright]

No, no. I'm just saying, like, my point is if Rex Burkhead is there, he will get touches. That's my only point is it affects the other guys. Like Andy was saying, if Burkhead's not there, you have more clarity, you have more confidence in Sony. Damien Harris becomes like an interesting late round sleeper. But I think that that kind of goes away now.

[Unknown Speaker]

Sure.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, I agree.

[Unknown Speaker]

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[Mike Wright]

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[Jason Moore]

I've always been an anti chafing kind of guy.

[Mike Wright]

You want me chafing inside of a swimsuit?

[Unknown Speaker]

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[Mike Wright]

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[Andy Holloway]

Let's get divisional.

[Jason Moore]

You know, if two thirds of men deal with the male pattern baldness, Mike, then it's kind of heads up, me versus you here to fulfill it out. I mean your mother's father, we know the one full head of hair for your mother's father. Isn't that the one that's the clue for whether you lose it?

[Mike Wright]

Yes, I have heard that is the tale. And then I would be doomed.

[Jason Moore]

Really.

[Mike Wright]

Oh, yes. Dad was bowled.

[Jason Moore]

Was okay. All right, so you'll be the second of the third AFC North. Let's talk about the AFC North. Our divisional breakdown, walking through each of these teams today, beginning with the division winners, the dominant Baltimore Ravens. Last year it was. Well, it was a beautiful sight to behold if you're a Ravens fan. Number one in rushing yards per game. Number two in rushing touchdowns. Number one in passing touchdowns. Scoring differential was plus 249 on the season. That's a 15 and a half point per game point differential on average, a really, really solid defense. You look at this off season, a lot of stability on the roster. You lost Hayden Hurst, you lost Marshall Yonder, which is a big loss on the offensive line. But you added a couple of rookie wide receivers in the third and the fifth round and J.K. dobbins in the second round. And when you step back. Go ahead, Jay.

[Unknown Speaker]

I think you added health in Hollywood Brown. The injury he had everybody knew coming in would be hampering him through season one as a rookie. So I do think this team can actually take a step forward. Even losing Marshall Yonder, Pro Football Focus still has this as one of the top offensive lines in football. Adding J.K. dobbins, getting another year for Hollywood. I'm super excited and I think getting rid of Hayden Hurst is good for what this team can do through the air. I think it opens them up more.

[Jason Moore]

Well, they, it's worth bringing up the name to James Proche, their fifth round rookie wide receiver. A name we probably haven't brought up on the show before. I went and watched a ton of his, his college tape and he was a very, very good player. I saw in some draft reports for Baltimore. Prochet was considered the steal of the draft for them. So that's another name worth bringing up. But somebody else is going to contribute in this passing game. It's not going to just be Hollywood Brown and I don't think that we're going to be in a situation like last year where we're just it's Willie Snead by default. So I'm curious with your optimism for this offense, Jason, with the way that you have shined a light on Hollywood Brown, on Mark Andrews, on just this team in general, do you think that there will be another surprise weapon in the passing game that steps up?

[Unknown Speaker]

You know I do not. I don't think Miles Boykin or Devin Duvernay, these are, these are good options but I think it's going to be similar and I've said this before to what we've kind of seen with Kansas City where you have the 12 wide receiver, tight end punch because those are your most talented players. You've got your tyree Kill in Hollywood, you've got Mark Andrews to play the Kelsey role and then will other people have a big game here or there, catch a long touch and. Absolutely. But will they be a fantasy relevant weekend week out starter for a team that runs the ball as much as the Baltimore Ravens? I don't see a third pass catching option beyond Hollywood and Mark Andrews here.

[Mike Wright]

The only thing I feel like I really need to add is it's they will regress with their the offense. We've been talking about that. I don't want to just hark on that more but. But the formula of defense and running the ball is still going to work. The team added Calais Campbell to that defensive line who has been one. He's been one of the SD linemen now for years and still has it. Even with Jacksonville's deterioration on the defense last year, Clay is was still graded out as the third best lineman up front and he is just, he is an excellent run stuffer. So I think that it's just more of the same for the Ravens.

[Jason Moore]

Obviously an incredible year for Lamar Jackson. Fantasy wise. We've talked so much about Hollywood, we've talked about Mark Andrews. I'm sure Mark Andrews is trying to get to the point where we say Travis Kelsey is trying to do the Mark Andrews role as opposed to what you said where he's trying to fulfill the Kelce role. That's the evolution that we want to see for Mark Andrews, but it ain't happening. Yeah, probably not.

[Unknown Speaker]

There's just not enough targets. Kelsey's a guy who could be 135, 150 targets if you really wanted. I don't know that this offense could support Andrews in that way.

[Jason Moore]

Let's talk briefly about one other aspect of this team that could have a pretty big impact on fantasy rosters and deeper leagues and that is just looking at the backfield beyond Mark Ingram. A lot of optimism, excitement. Second round pick J.K. dobbins. You guys both loved him coming out of college. Obviously we've talked about him being somebody that if not this year could be huge for next year. But that backfield still has Gus Edwards who 100 plus carries ended up having a great year last year, a lot of it in mop up duty. But do you think J.K. dobbins will have, let's say this over under he'll be start worthy in five games this year. Now that doesn't mean that you'd be able to predict it, but I'm just saying at the end of the year do you think you're going to look back and say J.K. dobbins gave you fantasy production in five games?

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, if I don't have to predict it then yeah, I'll take the over.

[Jason Moore]

On five like best ball, you know, 100%.

[Unknown Speaker]

I think he'll be over on five if you don't have to predict it. But it's going to come in, you know, touchdowns, maybe a breakaway run here or there. I have him with 139 rushing attempts. Andy, I know you and I have a water bet as to whether or not it's going to be Gus Edwards as the number two to start the year or J.K. dobbins. I think J.K. dobbins immediately takes over for Gus Edwards and his 133 carries last year. So in this offense with the fact that, I mean you've just got to when you've got to play against the rushing ability of Lamar Jackson, you can't stop these electric running backs. And that's what both J.K. dobbins and Mark Ingram are. So I do think he will have a lot of games of relevance. I would obviously much rather have Mark Ingram, if we're talking about for this season, in a startup, in a, you know, any kind of redraft, even in a keeper league. I think sometimes people get a little carried away with keeper league, saying, oh, but he's younger. Like, you're only keeping a couple guys here. I would much rather have Mark Ingram.

[Jason Moore]

All right, let's move to the 8 and 8 Pittsburgh Steelers. What a bewildering season it was for them. 29th in rushing yards per game, 31st in passing yards per game. They essentially deleted their offense. They acquired a defense when they traded for Minka Fitzpatrick and turned that entire team around, really threatened for the playoffs, which is a testament to Mike Tomlin and his ability to kind of just piece together a season that was destroyed when Big Ben went down. Underwhelming performances last year from juju Smith, Schuster, from James Conner. Looking at the James Conner narrative, we've talked about it every which way and around. He's a tough case for fantasy owners this year because, yeah, he is, you know, last year in the draft, very high draft, capital player, somebody that we saw two years ago absolutely dominate. When we thought Lev Bell would be back, he wasn't back. And then James Conner, week after week, was this incredible value. He's missed 11 games so far in his career. He's had four other games where he left early with injury. And so we've seen comments from this team, from Tomlin, from. From their general manager, Kevin Colbert, from Rooney, talk about the injury problems. You know, Tomlin earlier in March said, you know, he didn't spend a lot of time on the field healthy. That is as much a part of the game as blocking and tackling. He's talking about the health. We're going to assess the situation with him in order to minimize injury. So do you read into that? Do they spread the workload around? You know, you've had some of those negative comments. You've also had Tomlin come back and say, well, yeah, he's our guy, because look at the backfield. I mean, what choice do you have but to say that? So I think he's just one of the more enigmatic kind of, you're either going to be really, really happy with the pick or you're going to be really sad is kind of where I think you're going to end up.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, I tend to agree with that. And it's. It's so tough with the way that ADP is just laying out with the other players who are going around him, I still believe in James Conner. I believe in the talent and believe that if he is healthy and plays, you know, 14, 15 games, that he will end up as a top 12 running back. The. I went and looked at the stat because I saw you were. Andy. We're going to talk about how he's missed 11 games. You know, Lev Bell missed 14 games in his last three years with the Steelers. And I'm not talking about the holdout year, otherwise that number will be much larger. But, like, running backs get hurt. And Le'Veon Bell was viewed as this, like, superstar, just nonstop. He's a fantasy stud. But he missed a lot of games. Like, if you remember, there was the two years in a row where he took massive knee injuries.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, yeah. I mean, running backs do get hurt. It's just a matter of. Does the team philosophically think they have to. Like, when the GM came out and talked about it, he made a point of saying, this is not one injury. This is this injury, then it's this injury, then it's this injury, then it's, I'm leaving early. Do they start to think it's their fault? Do they start to think we have to control the workload? Or do they cut it? Or do they cut him loose? Because in the, in the nature of the NFL, if you're running, if he's that much better than the guys around him, you have to have him on the field.

[Mike Wright]

I think he'll be a workhorse. Sorry. I would say that the GM had the. Had his opportunity in the draft to do something about it. Didn't do anything about it.

[Jason Moore]

Did something about it. Little bit ski, I mean, Anthony, little.

[Mike Wright]

Bit ski is the emphasis.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, he did draft. Anthony McFarlane was fifth round. Right.

[Mike Wright]

Fourth or fifth round. But Anthony McFarlane's like 180 pound, dude. My point was the GM could have done something then once it's Sunday, that's out of the GM's hands. Now it's on.

[Jason Moore]

Correct.

[Mike Wright]

It's Mike Tomlin's decision.

[Jason Moore]

Jason, you're going to weigh in.

[Unknown Speaker]

Yeah. I think to start the year, Connor is going to be the workhorse back until he can't handle it. And if he gets injured, then you're going to be sad the rest of the season along because then they're going to monitor and change it up. That being said, you look at like, okay, he's going right next to David Johnson and drafts. Who would you rather have I'm more confident that David Johnson, you know, will have more work there. But at the same time, on a per snap, per game basis, I think the upside. You have to go with James Conner here.

[Jason Moore]

Well, I think it's just philosophical, right? I mean, I would have David Johnson, I've got him ranked higher and I would take him because both of those guys are going to slide in as my running back, too. So I'm looking at that running back, too. I am looking for consistency of being on the field, and I think I will have that with David Johnson. We talk about him being a volume guarantee. I do not.

[Mike Wright]

How many games has David Johnson missed in the last three years?

[Jason Moore]

He's missed a lot.

[Mike Wright]

But he's more than James Conner.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, yeah. And. Well, I mean, he played last year. I mean, he wasn't out last year.

[Unknown Speaker]

He missed.

[Mike Wright]

He missed three games.

[Unknown Speaker]

But the tough thing with James Conner, I think, and I remember this right, it was our Halloween episode, it was one of our SiriusXM live shows, and we had the question of, you know, if name a player and who's a Halloween candy. And I remember loving this analogy. It was James Conner was a three Musketeers bar because, you know, he's kind of hard on the outside, but he's just soft in the middle. And that's how it felt because he kept going back in these games and then leaving the. Even when he started and finished a game, he would leave halfway through. It's just like when you're watching it, he wouldn't.

[Jason Moore]

That's why I like your point, Jason, is that if he goes down, he may be kind of deleted from fantasy relevance in terms of the team's not going to give him a sixth try to be the workhorse. Whereas I feel like, you know, all things being equal, David Johnson's more guaranteed. But that's the tier you're in. I mean, you're shooting for a much higher upside with Connor. Connor has the much higher potential to return somehow to 2018 form, get healthy, was by far the best guy on the field last year when he was healthy. But we don't have to say there, let's talk about some of the other.

[Unknown Speaker]

This is why. Let me just throw this out, because our whole goal here in the show is to help you win a championship. This is why this year, more than any year, I can remember smashing running backs in the first two rounds and getting two really good guys because.

[Jason Moore]

So you don't have to have these conversations.

[Unknown Speaker]

You don't have to have these conversations because you look at the wide receivers that are going around these guys and it's like Amari Cooper and Odell Beckham and you know, Cooper Cup. I would rather have these wide receivers and better running backs. So that's the way I'm, I'm leaning this year.

[Mike Wright]

I almost like it. And even if you don't take running backs in those first two rounds, I might just do basically a version of zero running back where I don't want to choose one of these guys, you know? You know what I mean? Like I just. This tier is of running backs is gross. When you look at the wide receiver value you could have and then see if you can fill in with later round running backs.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, there's certainly the possibility that, you know, guys like Kareem Hunt, guys like Devin Singletary can do as much for your team as James Connor.

[Mike Wright]

Right.

[Jason Moore]

So there, there is that possibility. Big additions, not really an addition, but he is. Big Ben's coming back and then Eric Ebron was signed at tight end. Means a lot for Big Ben in my estimation. Even if Ebron is a little up and down, which is kind of. I think that's his family crest. But Chase Claypool added in the second round wide receiver, big bodied wide receiver. And then Anthony McFarland was a fourth round pick. I think he said fifth earlier. Running back, Scat type of back.

[Unknown Speaker]

Says he weighs 200 pounds, but he doesn't. He's one of those guys.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, I like me man, I really like him.

[Unknown Speaker]

Oh, he was electric. Mike and I loved him when we scouted him. He looked great. But you want to talk about an injury prone little guy. Yeah, that's Anthony McFarland.

[Jason Moore]

So those were the big additions, obviously. Deontay Johnson coming into his sophomore year. Juju Smith Schuster. This is his final season. He's an unrestricted free agent after this.

[Mike Wright]

Year, which is wild.

[Jason Moore]

It feels strange. It really does. It was like last year didn't exist. Mike, for the Steelers. So other kind of considerations with this team. What do we think?

[Unknown Speaker]

Can they win the team? Deontay Johnson is the name that I think people listening really want to know about. Do we believe he has that breakout year? He was the best wide receiver last year with the crappy quarterback play. He did most of his damage with Duck Hodges, which is impressive that you can even do damage with Duck Hodges. You know, he was up near the top of the league in yards of separation. He's a good player and you know he's.

[Jason Moore]

He's also a very popular player in fantasy circles right Now?

[Unknown Speaker]

Yeah. I mean, personally, I feel like he's being a little overhyped. I don't see the ceiling being that, you know, people are like, well, he's, he's the same size and high and weight and you know, conference is Antonio Brown and now he's got Big Ben back. It's like a whole. You hold up.

[Jason Moore]

Antonio Brown made a lot of money for players that size. That's what I think happens.

[Unknown Speaker]

So I think he's a quality wide receiver out there. But I would still be putting my money on juju to be the number one here.

[Jason Moore]

So the big decision is Deontay is an eighth round pick and juju is a fourth round pick for fantasy drafts right now. So do you believe. I think I've made the contention that I have. I believe the odds of Deontay Johnson being the most fantasy relevant wide receiver are high enough to where I'd rather have him in the eighth than juju in the fourth. Do you guys look at juju in the fourth as the better, more secure pick there? Or do you do or do you agree?

[Unknown Speaker]

To me this is entirely about what you believe in Deontay Johnson? That's how you led your statement, right? If you are listening and you're like, man, I really believe in Deontay Johnson. I like what I saw. I think he has a breakout chance. Then don't draft juju in the fourth. There's a ton of great wide receivers in the fourth. To me, I don't believe that about Deontay Johnson. So if I had to pick one of these guys, I'd rather have juju.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, I would take juju as well. So Jay for as the resident Eric E. Braun Schruther on this show, it didn't work out for Vance McDonald last year, but again, didn't work out for very many Pittsburgh Steelers. So a couple years ago when Vance was, you know, joined the team, he went 50 receptions for 610 yards and four touchdowns. But that was also during Big Ben's monster year. So even with 50 receptions, Vance was still just an 11% target share, which is like that's not the number that you are hoping for. Do you, do you have Eric Ebron going 11% or do you think he can be higher?

[Unknown Speaker]

I have right now eric ebron at 11.6% of the target share, which means he's going to be serviceable, have his games, you know, over 500 yards, probably seven or more touchdowns. But I'm not really excited if you're in a, you know, Something like the Scotty Fishbowl. Sure, that's where Eric Ebron might be good or a best ball league, but I don't think he's going to have a big breakout campaign here. He'll be third in the pecking order in targets.

[Mike Wright]

Are we completely writing off James Washington?

[Unknown Speaker]

Yep. I. But I. But to be fair, I did that when he was drafted as a rookie, so I've just stayed the course.

[Jason Moore]

Well, the one thing that is strange about James Washington is that if you were looking at Deontay Johnson last year and the impressive numbers and the success he had, it's a little bit intellectually dishonest to not acknowledge James Washington having an impact in the offense and just pick and choose this offseason. While one guy can take a step forward, the other guy can't. I'm glad that you brought him up, Mike, because, you know, I don't know if it's because of the Claypool pick and how we slot the wide receivers in, but Washington has not been brought up.

[Unknown Speaker]

James Washington had 50 more yards than Deontay Johnson in one fewer game.

[Jason Moore]

There you go.

[Unknown Speaker]

So that. That kind of lays the intellectual dishonesty. If you're all about Deontay Johnson and not liking James Washington, I don't believe in either of them.

[Jason Moore]

And as a final thought and kind of how when I'm looking at Pittsburgh's wide receiver core, it's going to come down to much like he does with Tom Brady, who's got the trust of Big Ben, which guy is in the right place at the right time when Big Ben needs you, is that going to be Deontay Johnson? Is juju going to take that mantle again now that those two are back together? A lot of upside in the offense that didn't exist there last year.

[Unknown Speaker]

Exactly why I go juju. You've got years of experience with him. When. When Big Ben finally got back and had the whole shave his beard, did.

[Jason Moore]

You throw an S on the end of that year of experience? That's all he's got, right?

[Unknown Speaker]

No. He had two awesome years with Big Ben. I did throw an S on that. You're getting fourth year.

[Mike Wright]

Yes. That's why he's. That's why it's his last year.

[Jason Moore]

He's a time traveler, Mike.

[Unknown Speaker]

He had two awesome years. His rookie and sophomore year were awesome. But yeah, so I think he's got a rapport. When Big Ben had his whole shave the beard video and got back out to practice, who was he with? He was with juju. So I think that's the rapport. And you know, when Big Ben has a favorite, he just locks on and says, let's do this.

[Mike Wright]

And remember, I'm not calling. Don't hear what I'm not saying. I'm not saying juju is DeAndre Hopkins. But DeAndre Hopkins was turning into an elite wide receiver and then right around the age of 24, had that just monster tank bust of a season because his quarterback play was just not something he could overcome in 2016. And he ended up as the wide receiver 30.

[Jason Moore]

I am 100% hearing what you're not saying there, Mike. You made a direct comparison between the two. So. All right, now let's move on. Let's talk about the Cleveland Browns. This is not the juju show. Six and ten last year. Big old wet fart of a season in every way. Nobody was in more commercials than Baker Mayfield. And nobody had a worse season, honestly, than Baker Mayfield. When you combine expectation with actual performance on the field. In my opinion, Baker Mayfield was the single biggest bust in national, in the NFL and in fantasy football for what you hoped he could provide For Odell Beckham Jr. For what you thought he would be in fantasy drafts. And so this is a make it or break it year for Baker Mayfield. Without question. Now he's got a brand new head coach and a brand new offensive coordinator. Alex Van Pelt takes over at offensive coordinator. Kevin Stefanski is the new head coach. I don't know if you guys knew this. Alex Van Pelt was an offensive coordinator once upon a time. 2009 in Buffalo. For just a brief moment in time.

[Mike Wright]

All I can hear is Scott Van Pelt. That's. That's all I'm picturing.

[Jason Moore]

Whether unquestionably related, there's no doubt based on the name.

[Mike Wright]

Just bald head, big black frame, glasses.

[Jason Moore]

That's right. And you know, and astute high for an offense. Yeah, but Alex Van Pelt's taking over Kevin Stefanski last year with Minnesota, big additions for this team. You know, they added Jack Conklin, offensive tackle out of came from Tennessee, was Great last year. Ninth graded tackle in 2019, just 25 years old. Added Austin Hooper to bring some stability to that tight end position. Sure handed. High pass volume last year for Atlanta with Austin Hooper and you know, you look at the team and everything makes sense on paper, but most of it made sense on paper last year. Where are we with the Browns? Where are we with the sentiment? Jason, I think two days ago mentioned liking the Browns.

[Unknown Speaker]

Yeah, look, I wasn't here before. Well, I Haven't. I mean, you know, last year they were my bold prediction to be the sucky fantasy team that's going to let everybody down. You know, I didn't believe. And this year I do believe, because while I still question the second year in a row hiring a head coach with very little experience, I do think that this head coach without experience is not an. I think Freddie Kitchen was a joke of a head coach. Just an absolute catastrophe. The fact that you've come in and you've got a style, you've got character to how you want to run a football team, and then what do you do? You go get Jack Conklin on the offensive line, you draft a high tight end, you bring in Austin Hooper, you sign a great fullback, one of the best in the league. They're prepping to be who they. They're going to be able to run the ball like crazy. I think Chubb is going to be awesome. I think Hunt's going to be split out as a slot receiver whenever he's not in the back field as well. They're. They're just going to be able to do what they want, positionally speaking, on offense. And I think they have a great defense. So I love the running game. I do think that the passing game will be so much more efficient this season with a healthy Odell Beckham, a better offensive line. But I don't know that they're going to have to, you know, throw the ball as much as fantasy owners will want them to.

[Mike Wright]

You know, it's. It's. So I took a deeper dive on Baker Mayfield his rookie year. He was very good. He was the. He graded out his pro football focus. His number 12 quarterback, he was third in adjusted completion percentage on deep throws at over 51%. Third. He was great driving the ball down the field. And that absolutely deteriorated last year down to 24th and saw his percentage drop to under 40%. And it's. He wasn't necessarily getting hit all the time, but there was a very large intake in quarterback pressures, which. That's because the offensive line was bad. So I do believe that Baker Mayfield can be better. It's. The Stefanski offense is such a question mark to me, because how, like, how much of that is he actually bringing down? Because that has huge implications to me for this team. Not just on Nick Chubb, where you're like, yeah, they. They were a great running team in Minnesota. Nick Chubb. I like Nick Chubb. But for guys like Jarvis Landry, who. 46 of his 83 receptions came from the slot. And in case you're wondering, that was in fact about 55% of of his receptions. And then I took a look. So 46. So that's just Jarvis, 46 of his receptions, 37 wide receiver receptions from the slot last year for Minnesota, for the team. Like what's going to happen to Jarvis Landry now when he is forced to go back on the outside? Because The Vikings in 74% of their plays had two or few wide receivers on the field, they didn't have a slot.

[Jason Moore]

It's one of the reasons why I was. I'm more interested in Austin Hooper now than I was a couple a month ago. On first glance, I adjusted him in my rankings earlier this morning. I know he's not going to do what he did in Atlanta, but I think they brought him there for a reason. I think part of it is what you're saying, Mike. Just with the formations that they run and the opportunity they want to give Baker Mayfield the chance to not look like another blot on the franchise's draft board. So I look him a chance to succeed.

[Mike Wright]

I looked at that stuff as well because Minnesota, their highest personnel package was 12 personnel. So you have two tight ends on the field at 34%. But that, that led to Kyle Rudolph with 48 targets and Irv Smith with 47 targets. Like yep, there was no standout tight end. Now we don't have like it's hard to put data together with Baker. Does Baker seem to favor his tight end because his rookie year njoku had the 88 targets which was number two for the Cleveland Browns. But when you bring in Odell Beckham, things change. He's going to be a target hog. So I. It's hard to. Austin Hooper is very difficult for me to gauge because it will not be the offense that he is used to playing. And I, I just don't. I don't see the world where Austin Hooper really is fantasy relevant unless he's, you know, he's coming at tight end 10 at the end of the season. At which point you're not super happy if you stuck with him week in and week out.

[Jason Moore]

I think that's the range where I moved him closer to. I don't think he's going to be a dominant player, but I had him. I had him pretty heavily bodied from a production standpoint compared to the year before there. I just think that Baker is going to be managed. I think they're going to have to 20 interceptions last year. You know, the offensive line that's there to Help Baker. Kareem Hunt in the slot that's here to help Baker. Austin Hooper, let's give him some shorter sure handed targets for Baker. You cannot be. Jason brought it up. Freddie Kitchens was a joke last year and part of that joke it would go knock, knock, who's their Odell Beckham targets no matter what that was. The part of the problem is you had a, you know, a ride receiver on the outside that there was not a rapport with but you had to try to manufacture targets. We didn't get mad at you.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah. So it's hard to see. Yeah. Beckham is a tough case as well. This whole team is very interesting.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, it'll be. And it's a, it's a tough division. It's going to be a tough division for them. It always is. But Jason, do you have anything you want to add on the Browns side of things?

[Unknown Speaker]

You know, the only thing I would say is remember it took, you know, it seemed like Baker when he had Jarvis at first that rookie year when he came in. It took him a while to develop that rapport. So a healthy Odell Beckham with another year of rapport with Baker. I look, I was very anti Odell last year. I'm, I find myself, I want to say very in on Odell this year.

[Mike Wright]

Oh my.

[Unknown Speaker]

I know. It's like so off brand what's happening.

[Mike Wright]

If you look at the reception perception, which is those reports are available in the ultimate draft kit where Matt Harmon broke down Odell Beckham. His, his conclusion was he, he had to have been hurt because these are just not the scores that Odo Beckham usually puts up in that metric.

[Jason Moore]

All right, the final team that we're going to look at today, The Cincinnati Bengals, 2 and 14 last season, 25th ranked rushing offense in yards per game. 19th and passing yards per game, which for a team that's 2 and 14, that's a nice number and a testament to Zach Taylor loving to throw the football. Bad defense this year they added Joe Burrow, obviously the number one overall pick in the draft. The new quarterback of the future and the present. And then T. Higgins in the second round, first pick of the second round, part of the future at the wide receiver position for the Bengals. I'm on record with my adoration for Joe Mixon, his talent and ability on the field. He's the eighth pick right now in fantasy drafts. I think he's going to be great because he's a great running back. And they, you look at the back half of last year when they Started actually giving him the football and he was dominant for a very bad team, which is hard to do when you're a running back.

[Mike Wright]

Well, and they, they made a, they made a change. Like I went and I looked it up of how were they lining up at the beginning of the year in those first seven or eight weeks, whatever it was, where mixing was just putrid. They were running out of 11 personnel 80% of the time. And then they made a very strong switch. That number dropped all the way to 59%. So they started changing things up, getting more tight ends on the field. So this, so this is another one of those like rams situation where like is, are they going to keep going with that? Because that's what worked. You would think so, but I'm just saying, like it was a very large change over the second half.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, it was. And the nice thing though is that we've seen mixing in a couple of systems now have great success with this team. One, two years ago it was more in the passing game, but a lot to wade through. You know, while we like to conditionalize the output of rookie quarterbacks, things have changed in that department over the years where rookies are able to come in and bring some production to an offense and to some of the pieces of that offense. You need only look to Daniel Jones and his ability last year to give you week winning weeks. I was surprised to see how high Joe Burrow was going in some Scotty Fish leagues. Burrow can come in in a Zach Taylor offense and produce with the weapons that he has with mixing Green, Boyd, Ross, T. Higgins. Do you feel that way too, Jason?

[Unknown Speaker]

Yeah, I really do. I don't have him projected for that. But you know, we were talking this morning about maybe having a new segment at some point before the year of a range of outcomes ranking and Joe Burrow would need to be someone on there because his range of outcomes. I actually, I mean look, he's the best. This, I mean it stinks because it was one season, it was one season. But that single season was the best quarterback college scouting I've ever seen. And it's not even remotely close. He was so good. He threw with anticipation. He threw guys open, he checked it down, he can run the ball, things break down, he's going to get those fantasy points on the ground. I absolutely loved Joe Burrow. So this is kind of a dark horse offense for me. I still don't think their offensive line is good enough to, you know, in that range of outcomes they would need to gel their offensive tackle. They Lost their first round pick last year. He's back, he's healthy. He'd have to dominate. If those things happen, then I could see this being a really good offense. I don't project them all to happen in year one, though. And then, you know, I do think they want to get T. Higgins involved. They want him on the field. They see him as the future AJ Green. He's part of the reason I'm down on AJ Green a little bit. Not that he's going to take AJ Green off the field, but he might.

[Mike Wright]

Take Ross off the field.

[Unknown Speaker]

Right? Yeah. You know, I do think though that they're going to be looking towards his.

[Jason Moore]

Interest unrestricted free agent after this year. Is that correct? They decline his fifth year option?

[Unknown Speaker]

Yes, correct. They did decline his fifth year option. He'll get a ton of money from somewhere because he runs fast.

[Jason Moore]

I don't know, but I don't know about that. We'll see. Are you willing. Are you willing to go hang gliding? I'm curious.

[Unknown Speaker]

No, I am not willing to go hang gliding.

[Jason Moore]

Now, at least if the first part of the argument and the upside that you see, if it were somehow to puzzle piece together with the age of Green health, that would be hang glide. You'd be hang glided.

[Unknown Speaker]

Yes, I would be hang gliding. In that situation, if Joe Burrow comes in and dominates the offensive line, steps it up and AJ Green is fully healthy, then he's going to be a steal of drafts. You brought this up on the Bounce Back episode. It's just so tough.

[Jason Moore]

You know what's funny though?

[Unknown Speaker]

32 year old who hasn't played in a.

[Jason Moore]

He's just really freaking good. And the thing is, is when we're as Cardinal fans. Do you remember this? For years and years and years with these young quarterbacks, what do we always say? Just. Just freaking throw the ball to Larry. Just throw it to Larry, who's the best friend of a young rookie. It's probably the guy a Hall of Fame wide receiver that's bigger than everybody. So that's my hope. I can hope. I can dream.

[Mike Wright]

Oh, you can. We're. We're not stopping you from hoping.

[Jason Moore]

I did get a DM Floats.

[Mike Wright]

That helps your hang gliding floats.

[Jason Moore]

Hang gliding floats. I got a DM on Twitter from a frequent hang glider that let me know that maybe hang gliding accidents are slightly more prominent than I believe so.

[Mike Wright]

So your. Your hang gliding research was. Was faulty.

[Jason Moore]

I would say almost accidentally more accurate in the sense that it's a little more dangerous to go with AJ Green than What I thought hang gliding was, it's more like what hang gliding actually is, which is, you know, taking a leap from a high location and hoping that you land safely. And that is really the AJ Green experience at this point in his career.

[Unknown Speaker]

Now, how are you two on very, very, very solid NFL wide receiver Tyler Boyd. I've loved him for a couple of years. I find myself super down on him. I, you know, I would take Jarvis Landry over Tyler Boyd. I would take Michael Gallup over Tyler Boyd. That's where I'm at. Just because I think T. Higgins coming in, the amount of weapons that they have there and the rookie involved, I'm, you know, I'm just, I find myself never wanting Tyler Boyd, even though I think he's a very talented, you know, above average, solid NFL wide receiver.

[Mike Wright]

But I think that's a really like, I'm having trouble lining those, these things up that if you like Joe Burrow so much and you don't like A.J. green, like who's producing on this team, I guess you would mention T. Higgins, but you're going to go.

[Jason Moore]

T. Higgins might legitimately not even start.

[Mike Wright]

T. Higgins, a second round pick who's done nothing in the NFL. Tyler Boyd, back to back thousand yard recessions and he is the, he's the slot guy.

[Jason Moore]

There's no way this man, this man's gliding. This man's hang gliding.

[Mike Wright]

No one's replacing Tyler Boyd's. I mean he's extended. So it's, it's wild to me that if you have no interest in Boyd, how do you have interest in Burrow?

[Unknown Speaker]

Well, and please, I'm glad you bring this up because obviously it sounded like I said something different. I think that's in his range of outcomes, but that is not what I'm projecting him for. I think he will be an extremely talented quarterback. But year one rookie like I loved Kyler, Kyler coming in last year I thought was going to be phenomenal for fantasy. But I looked at the wide receiver options and I didn't like those options as much. I didn't like Larry as much because it was like usually, you know, what's the cap like 4,000 yards? Is he going to hit that number? Some rookie quarterbacks do. I've got them projected for over 4000, but barely. Then if you split that up between AJ Green and Tyler Boyd and T. Higgins and John Ross, there's a lot of good weapons here that would be.

[Jason Moore]

A problem because you could end up with Arizona's receiving output numbers of last year with Kyler Murray, which would be Christian Kirk, 700 yards. Larry Fitzgerald 800 yards. Andy Isabella, 200 yards. Keyshawn Johnson, 200 yards. That's the dirty truth. That's how I see.

[Unknown Speaker]

That's how I project the Bengals fantasy offense to be.

[Jason Moore]

You heard it here first. Jason is going hang gliding against his will. We'll strap him. We'll send him off the cliff. A.J. green, 5,000 yards. That'll do it for today's episode of the podcast. We'll get into some more divisional breakdowns on Saturday's show.

[Andy Holloway]

Thank you for listening to another episode of the Fantasy Footballers Podcast. Join our fantasy football community on jointhefoot.com and follow us on Twitter the FFballers.